Bitcoin CME futures are having a clearly bearish session, down close to 5% on the day, and the broader structure shows a market that has shifted from “rally continuation” into “value repair.” In plain English: after strong upside days earlier this month, the market stopped rewarding buyers, rolled over, and is now spending time building trade at lower prices.This Bitcoin technical analysis uses investingLive.com’s orderFlow Intel framework to translate what is happening behind the candles, focusing on buyer vs seller pressure, value acceptance, and whether today’s stabilization near support is a real base or simply a pause inside a bearish trend.orderFlow Intel is decision support, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.Let's first dive in my 2 technical analysis video overviews for today's bitcoin futures:Bitcoin technical analysis context: what changed since the Jan 13-14 rally?On the daily view, the powerful push higher on Jan 13 and Jan 14 has been “undone” quickly, with price already breaking below the Jan 13 low. That matters because strong trend legs usually hold their prior breakout zones. When those zones fail quickly, it often signals that the prior rally was more fragile than it looked.On top of that, the market has been unable to reclaim key reference areas from the prior session(s), including prior value zones and VWAP references. That reinforces the idea that this is not just a healthy pullback.Today’s VWAP and value area tell a bearish storyOn the 30-minute chart, today’s VWAP started near $92,500 (around yesterday’s POC) and has been sliding lower. At the time of this read:Today’s VWAP: about $91,516, clearly decliningToday’s POC: about $91,000–$91,045Today’s VAH: about $91,745Today’s VAL: $90,640Yesterday’s VWAP: about $93,075Two points matter for Bitcoin technical analysis traders:The entire value area today is below yesterday’s key references. That is value migration lower.Price has spent roughly the last 12 hours below VWAP without a meaningful test. When a market cannot even rotate back to VWAP, it usually means sellers are controlling “fair value,” and buyers are reacting rather than leading.This does not guarantee continuation lower, but it does define the playing field. Bulls need to prove themselves by reclaiming and holding key levels. Until that happens, rallies tend to behave like “sell-the-rally” opportunities, not trend continuations.The key support level: why $90,640 matters so muchThe level that keeps showing up across timeframes is $90,640, today’s value area low and an important lower reference on the intraday structure. This is where many traders start talking about a “double bottom” or “base building,” especially after a hard selloff.Here is the problem: candles alone cannot tell you if that base has real demand behind it. A sideways cluster can be either:Real dip buying that absorbs selling and prepares a reversal, orA pause that simply lets selling pressure cool before the next leg lowerThat is where orderFlow Intel helps. It tries to answer a simple question: when price pauses at support, are buyers actually taking control, or are sellers just temporarily resting?What orderFlow Intel sees right now: bearish control, but execution is neutralAcross the higher intraday range-based view (used for momentum and acceptance) and the shorter range-based view (used for execution), the message is consistent:Sellers had a real impulse lower earlier in the session.The market is now digesting that move, not reversing it.Buyer activity exists, but it has not produced the kind of “follow-through” you would want to see if a durable base was forming.In practical terms, this often creates the most frustrating environment for traders:Shorting late can be dangerous because snap-back rallies happen easily after a big drop.Buying early can be dangerous because pauses near support can break down once liquidity builds.So the highest-quality decision support is not “go long” or “go short.” It is: wait for the market to reveal whether $90,640 is being defended strongly, or whether it is being accepted below.Bitcoin technical analysis map: the levels that matter nextUse this as your decision-support compass. The market is currently in a bearish auction, but it is pausing. That pause will resolve either upward into a larger rotation, or downward into continuation.Bearish levels to watch$90,640 (VAL): the main “floor” level in focus$90,000 (round number zone): psychological liquidity area where stops often sitIf price accepts below $90,640, the bearish stage typically deepens, and the next downside references from the daily structure come into play (including the larger support zone around the low $80,000s highlighted earlier in your daily context).Bullish recovery levels to watch$91,000–$91,045 (POC zone): first area bulls need to hold consistently$91,745 (VAH): the first meaningful “reclaim” level$91,516 (today’s VWAP, declining): bulls need not just a tag, but sustained trade above it$92,300–$92,500: a stronger recovery zone (prior references and the area where today’s VWAP began)A useful rule of thumb:If price cannot sustain above the bullish thresholds (VAH, VWAP, then the next resistance band), shorts can become more attractive on rejection.If price breaks below the bearish threshold (VAL), it often signals that the auction is accepting lower and continuation risk rises.What the orderFlow Intel scores are, and how to use themorderFlow Intel assigns a score from -10 to +10. The score combines three things:Direction: positive is bullish bias, negative is bearish biasConfidence: larger magnitude means stronger evidenceTiming risk: the score avoids extreme readings when price is already extended and late entries are riskyIt also uses three timeframe buckets so we do not mix “structure” with “execution.”Score SummaryLong-term score (Daily / LTF): -4 The daily structure is bearish. The prior rally zone failed quickly, and value has shifted lower. This is not a strong trend breakdown score, but it is clearly negative.Medium-term score (200-range / MTF): -3 Sellers remain in control intraday, and the market has not repaired value upward yet. However, momentum has slowed, which prevents a more extreme bearish score.Short-term score (100-range / STF): 0 This is the most important score for actual trade execution. A 0 means “no edge right now.” The market is pausing and compressing. That often produces chop and false moves. You typically wait for confirmation.How traders can use this:When the long-term and medium-term scores are negative, you treat rallies as suspicious until the market proves otherwise.When the short-term score is near 0, you avoid forcing trades and instead wait for the next clean signal around the key levels.Scenarios for Bitcoin today: continuation vs rotationScenario 1: Bearish continuationThis becomes more likely if:Price breaks below $90,640 and holds below itBounces fail to reclaim the $91,000–$91,745 zoneVWAP continues drifting lower and price remains pinned below itIn this case, the market is communicating that it is accepting lower prices, and downside targets expand.Scenario 2: Rotation and stabilizationThis becomes more likely if:Price holds $90,640 and starts building value higherThe market reclaims $91,745 (VAH) and then spends time above itPrice rotates back to VWAP and starts holding above VWAP rather than rejecting itThis does not instantly make Bitcoin bullish again on the daily chart, but it can shift the intraday trade environment from “sell pressure” to “two-sided balance.”A quick educational note: why failed VWAP tests matter in Bitcoin technical analysisMany traders treat VWAP like a line on the chart. In reality, it is a live “fair value reference” used widely across institutional and systematic flows.When price spends hours below VWAP and cannot even test it, it often means:sellers are controlling the auction, andbuyers are not willing to pay up enough to challenge fair valueThat is why today’s declining VWAP, combined with a lack of VWAP tests, keeps the bias bearish unless conditions improve.Bottom line for Bitcoin technical analysis todayBitcoin remains in a bearish intraday auction, and the market is still trading well below yesterday’s key references. The interesting development is not that bulls are winning, but that selling has paused near $90,640, creating a decision point.If $90,640 breaks and holds below, bearish continuation risk rises.If Bitcoin reclaims $91,745 and starts holding above VWAP, the market shifts into rotation and stabilization.Until one of those conditions is met, the best decision-support stance is patience. The chart is bearish, but the execution edge is not clean right now.Trade at your own risk. Come check more out at the investingLive Telegram Channel on https://t.me/investingLiveStocks This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Bloomberg reports that the Danish pension fund AkademikerPension will unload its $100 million position in US Treasuries by the end of the month.The fund managers about $25 billion in savings for teachers and the fund manager cited Trump's attempt to take over Greenland as one of the reasons to drop the holdings but also said:“The US is basically not a good credit and long-term the US government finances are not sustainable,” Anders Schelde, chief investment officer at AkademikerPension told Bloomberg.I highlighted that Denmark's central bank holds $100 billion in reserves, with about half of that likely to be in US dollars. Them and others may need to reconsider those holdings, especially after the confiscated Russian reserves and crippled its ability to use the international financial system after the invasion of Ukraine.It's no surprise that gold is up 1.6% and just hit another fresh record high at $4748. At the end of the day, it's the ultimate monetary alternative and if there's any shift out of US dollars, that's going to be one of the places it goes.Whether it's Denmark or someone else, there is some heavy selling in Treasuries today. US 10-year yields are the highest since September and that's despite three Fed rate cuts in that time. The chart looks like an inverted head-and-shoulders with a target just below 4.5%.A big part of what's happening in bonds is a fiscal reckoning in Japan, where 30-year yields are up 25 basis points today and risk kicking off an international crisis. S&P 500 futures are also down 1.5%.At the end of the day, it might be a crisis in Japanese bonds that ends up halting Trump's imperialism. The noise is extremely loud right now and it's going to be difficult to wade through the headlines and find an edge. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Here is what I wrote at the start of the year:The number one risk I see in the foreign exchange market in 2026 is Japan. The yen has been struggling for the past six months and it’s close to a boiling point in Tokyo. There were some stronger warnings about FX intervention late in December. Japan is the most-indebted major economy in the world and the demographics are terrible. The US is leaving a lot of uncertainty around its alliance with Japan and China is eating its lunch in manufacturing. There is something of ‘boy who cried wolf’ situation around Japanese debt as people have been calling for a crisis for 20 years but Japanese borrowing costs are hitting 30 year highs. These things can escalate quickly and could turn into an international problem.I didn't expect it to blow up so quickly. Today's jump in 30-year Japanese borrowing costs is frightening. This is a market that had 25 basis point trading ranges for entire years, and rates climb by that same amount this morning.The turmoil in Japan was set off by Senae Takaichi calling an early election and promising more spending. That's been the playbook in Japan for a generation but with debt to GDP at 230% and the global order collapsing, it's a bridge too far.I think there is still a strong sense of disbelief that this could really spiral into a crisis as people have been warning about Japanese debt for a generation. Is the wolf really at the gate?The hope was always that because Japan's debt is largely held within its borders that it's safe. Even if that's the case, the relief valve is the yen. But if the yen falls then the Bank of Japan will be forced to hike rates and cripple the economy, setting off a spiral. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

BoE Governor Bailey warns that the loss of Fed independence risks spillover effectsThe S&P 500 falls to new lows as risk aversion dominates: Will we get another TACO trade?The Swiss Franc surges on risk-off flows as US Dollar longs get squeezed. What's next?Japan bond yields continue to surge higher on the weekGold keeps breaking records, but watch out for these risks that could trigger a selloffDollar drops further as the fallout from Trump's Greenland tariffs continuesGold Price Today at All-Time-High but Profit-Taking Risk at $4,760What Trump is threatening on Greenland is very different, says BessentWhat are the main events for today?German producer prices post another annual average decline in 2025UK November ILO unemployment rate 5.1% vs 5.1% expectedFX option expiries for 20 January 10am New York cutGold tops $4,700 for the first time as the surge higher continuesUS president Trump: We have to have GreenlandThe risk mood keeps on the defensive as we look towards European morning tradeThe main highlight of the session in terms of data releases was the UK employment report. The employment change in the three monhts to November beat expectations, but payrolls decreased in December. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.1%. The data didn't change anything in terms of market pricing.We also has the German ZEW index beating estimates at 59.6 vs 50.00 expected and 45.8 prior. Again, the reaction to the data was muted here too as it didn't change anything for the ECB. The focus remains on Greenland and the latest Trump's escalation. The risk-off flows continue to dominate with major stock indices falling to new lows and safe havens like Swiss Franc and precious metals extending gains.The US Dollar has been the most notable mover in FX as it plunged throughout the session. The de-dollarisation narrative is of course back on the menu, but I would say it's more about the squeeze on the recent US Dollar longs. If we were to get a de-escalation, the greenback could bounce back and return to pre-escalation levels.The other notable movers have been long-term bond yields, with the Japanese ones catching everyone's attention as 40-yields surpassed 4% for the first time ever. JGBs have been selling off since Takaichi got elected on expectations of more stimulus amid an already worrying fiscal position.In the American session, we don't have much on the agenda. The focus will be on the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. The decisions are usually announced around 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT.We will also get the weekly US ADP jobs data but it's not been a market-moving release lately. We likely need big surprises to trigger a market reaction. Nevertheless, the data has been pointing to gradual improvement in the labour market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Threat to the Federal Reserve risks spillover effectsThere is a very substantial scope for spilloverFed Chair Powell is a friend of mine and a man of the utmost intergrityDon't see the same threats to the BoESo far, we have seen more hedging of Dollar positions rather than investors saying they don't want DollarsBoE Governor Bailey warned that the loss of Fed independence risks spillover effects. Such an event wouldn't impact just the US markets, but would have a negative impact on the global financial system. In fact, in case the Fed were to lose independence, the US Dollar would sink and this would have consequences for other central banks too as they will need to manage the extreme volatility of their own currencies.Moreover, borrowing costs would likely surge not only in the US but in all other advanced economies. US Treasury yields are the benchmark "risk-free rate" upon which global debt is priced. If markets believe the Fed has lost its independence, they will demand a higher risk premium for everyone raising interest rates and negatively impacting the economies.Bailey also talked about the current de-dollarisation narrative. He said that so far there's just been more hedging instead of investors outright avoiding the US Dollar. The greenback has been mainly driven by Fed's policy expectations. In fact, in 2024 the long Dollar positioning reached an extreme following Trump's election. The market turned very hawkish on the Federal Reserve and those expectations kept the USD strong. In 2025 though, Trump started to rattle markets with his tariffs agenda that culminated with the Liberation Day in April. The selloff in the US Dollar was just caused by the unwinding of extreme long dollar positions and then on the expectations of Fed rate cuts. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 futures opened lower yesterday following Trump’s escalation over Greenland over the weekend. As a reminder, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from June 1 in case of no deal.As we’ve seen last year, risk-off moves caused by Trump’s tariffs stemmed from growth worries. Growth expectations are the main driver of stock markets and when something leads to negative expectations, we generally get selling pressure until those expectations are corrected.Everyone is now waiting for the famous TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out") trade. The market's focus in now on this latest escalation, so monitoring the developments will be key and will offer trading opportunities. The risk sentiment will likely stay on the defensive until we get some clear de-escalation from Trump. If things escalate further, we should see more downside before Trump eventually folds.Trump will deliver a speech tomorrow at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He already mentioned that he will talk about Greenland with other leaders, so we could get some new developments before the weekend. Today we have also a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. If SCOTUS rules against tariffs, we could get a relief rally in the short-term, although Trump’s aides said that they have already a plan to impose tariffs with other means. If tariffs remain in place, then it shouldn’t change anything.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 is breaking below the key swing level around 6,865. The sellers have likely piled in on the break to extend the selloff into the next major swing level at 6,770. The buyers will want to see the price rising back above the 6,865 level to start positioning for a rally into the weekend gap.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will look for shorts around the 6,885 level and the trendline, while the buyers will look for longs on the breakouts. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the weekly US ADP jobs data and the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. Tomorrow, we have Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we have the US Flash PMIs. Watch out for headlines and Trump’s posts on Truth Social regarding Greenland as the market’s focus remains on this latest escalation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar has been weakening across the board in this first part of the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. As a reminder, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from June 1 in case of no deal.The main narrative for the greenback’s weakness is once again de-dollarisation due to the messy and aggressive US policies. The current squeeze on recent dollar longs might be more about positioning. Given the recent USD strength on some slightly hawkish repricing, this latest escalation kind of unwinds those bets. If we were to get a de-escalation now, the US Dollar would probably rally again, and more so if the economic data in the next weeks and months strengthens. Trump is giving a speech tomorrow at the World Economic Forum in Davos and he will also likely talk about Greenland with the European leaders. We might get headlines or a Trump’s post on Truth Social on the matter, so watch out for any de-escalation or further escalation. CHF:On the CHF side, the Swiss Franc is once again surging on the back of the risk-off flows. In terms of monetary policy, nothing has changed. The SNB left everything unchanged at the last meeting and sounded a bit more positive on the future outlook given the lower US tariff rate. SNB’s members continue to repeat that the bar for negative rates remains high, so that leaves the Swiss Franc trading mostly based on risk sentiment. USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF erased all the January gains in a couple of days on the latest risk-off sentiment. If the price falls further, we can expect the buyers to step in around the key support zone around the 0.7870 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new cycle lows.USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price reached a key swing level near the 0.7900 handle. This is where we can expect the first dip-buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 0.7870 support next.USDCHF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price reached already the lower bound of the average daily range for today. In such cases, we can generally see some consolidation or a pullback. We have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the weekly US ADP jobs data and the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. Tomorrow, we have Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we have the US Flash PMIs. Watch out for headlines and Trump’s posts on Truth Social regarding Greenland as the market’s focus remains on this latest escalation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Precious metals are not the only thing that is melting up this week. Global bonds yields are also surging higher but the standout is the Japan government bond (JGB) market once more. Yields in Japan are soaring today after prime minister Takaichi confirmed a snap election for 8 February, with the lower house of parliament to be dissolved on Friday this week.40-year JGB yields hit a fresh record high and touched 4% for the first time and 30-year JGB yields are not far away amid a whopping 40 bps plus surge this week alone:Meanwhile, 10-year yields nudged up to a high of 2.38% earlier - its highest since 1999. All of this comes after Takaichi pledged more tax cuts that could worsen the country's already worrying fiscal position.It's pretty much an exacerbation of the Takaichi trade that has been running since October to November last year.A mix of debt, deficits, and geopolitics have not done bond markets much good as of late. And Japan's own political situation is not helping the domestic scene, not least with the government also locking horns with the BOJ.Yardeni Research is one to warn about how the rout in Japan's bond market might have reverberations elsewhere. The firm argues that:"Japanese investors in the past have been particularly aggressive in buying debt in other markets, in particular the US, where interest rates have been higher than in Japan. Now that their yields are going up, you’re likely to see that Japanese bond investors may be more likely to stay home and invest in their own bonds rather than in the US, so that could put some upward pressure on US bond yields."That in turn will bring us back to the argument in Treasuries, where investors are also having to consider looser fiscal policy and rising debt issuance. It's akin to a vicious cycle that just keeps feeding off itself. Danger. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Cryptocurrency payments have long been discussed as an alternative to traditional financial systems, but their adoption in everyday B2B operations remains limited. While many businesses experiment with accepting crypto for single transactions, structured use cases such as invoicing, subscriptions, and recurring billing have proven far more difficult to implement. Finunion aims to address this gap with its B2B crypto payments platform, which is already live and being used by early merchants. The platform is designed for companies that bill clients on a regular basis and need a predictable way to accept cryptocurrency payments without overhauling existing processes. Simplifying Crypto Payments for Businesses One of the main barriers to crypto adoption in business payments is operational complexity. Wallet management, technical integrations, and accounting considerations often make crypto more difficult to use than traditional payment methods. Finunion’s platform is built around simplicity. Businesses can issue invoices directly from the dashboard, either as one-time payment requests or as recurring invoices for subscription-based models. Once an invoice is created, the system generates a payment link that can be shared with the client.Clients access the link, review the invoice, and complete the payment in cryptocurrency on a hosted payment page. From the client’s perspective, the process is similar to paying a standard invoice, with no additional technical steps required. On the merchant side, incoming payments are credited to the company’s crypto balance. All invoices, transactions, and payment statuses are displayed in a single interface, allowing finance teams to track activity without relying on multiple tools. Supporting Recurring Billing and Cross-Border Payments Recurring billing remains one of the more challenging areas for crypto payments. Subscription services and SaaS companies require reliable billing cycles, clear visibility into unpaid invoices, and predictable cash flow. Finunion supports automated recurring invoicing, enabling businesses to bill customers on a predefined schedule. Unpaid invoices can be monitored, and payment history is available in real time. This functionality is particularly relevant for companies operating internationally, where traditional cross-border payments can be slow and costly. By focusing on invoicing rather than one-off transactions, the platform adapts crypto payments to established business practices instead of requiring businesses to change how they operate. Bridging Crypto and Fiat The platform is designed to support both crypto and traditional financial operations. While payments are received in cryptocurrency, businesses are not required to hold digital assets indefinitely. Funds can be withdrawn to euro-denominated bank accounts when needed. This approach reflects how many companies manage their finances today. Crypto may be used for receiving payments, while fiat remains essential for payroll, taxes, and operational expenses. Keeping both options within a single platform reduces operational friction and simplifies financial management. Built in Response to Market Demand According to the founder of Finunion, Vladyslav Savchenko, the platform was developed after repeated requests from businesses that were already accepting crypto but lacked suitable tools for B2B invoicing and recurring payments. Rather than introducing experimental features, the company focused on core functionality: invoice creation, payment links, recurring billing, transaction tracking, and fiat withdrawals. These elements form the foundation of most B2B payment workflows.A More Practical Direction for B2B Crypto Finunion’s launch reflects a broader shift in the crypto sector toward practical infrastructure rather than speculative use cases. As adoption matures, businesses are looking for tools that integrate smoothly with existing workflows. By aligning crypto payments with familiar invoicing and billing processes, Finunion positions its platform as a functional layer between digital assets and traditional business operations. This approach may prove essential for wider adoption of crypto in B2B environments, where reliability and clarity often matter more than innovation alone. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:Gold reached new record highs following Trump's escalation over GreenlandMain bullish trend remains supported amid geopolitical tensions and Fed's dovish reaction functionDownside risks include Trump's de-escalation, US Supreme Court decision on tariffs and hot US dataFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold extended the gains into new all-time highs today as the recent Trump’s escalation over Greenland continues to be a tailwind for the precious metals. As we’ve seen already last year, tariff threats have been boosting gold on higher stagflation risks. In fact, high tariffs generally lead to lower growth and higher inflation. Stagflation is the best environment for precious metals.In the bigger picture gold remains supported amid the geopolitical tensions and the dovish Fed’s reaction function. In the short-term, we could get some corrections on easing tensions or hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.Possible catalysts for a correction include de-escalation over Greenland likely coming from Trump himself. Hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations on hot US data, with NFP in the spotlight next month. Lastly, a potential US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold jumped into a new all-time high yesterday following Trump’s escalation over Greenland over the weekend. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into new all-time highs, but such a big pullback will likely require one of the above-mentioned catalysts.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The price spiked into the trendline on Friday after Trump said that he might keep Hassett in his current position. The buyers stepped in around the trendline with a defined risk below it to target new highs. If we get another pullback, we can expect the buyers to continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new record highs, while the sellers will need a break lower to open the door for a bigger correction into the major trendline.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price was consolidating inside a channel before chopping up both buyers and sellers following Trump-induced spikes. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the top trendline of the channel to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to target a deeper pullback into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the weekly US ADP jobs data and the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. Tomorrow, we have Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we have the US Flash PMIs. Watch out for headlines and Trump’s posts on Truth Social regarding Greenland as the market’s focus remains on this latest escalation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The chaotic and erratic policy setting nature of the US administration continues to bite at the dollar to start the year. After a bit of a better showing in the early stages in 2026, the dollar is now trading down to fresh two-week lows. So much for a change in avenue, eh?As Trump steps up the rhetoric on Greenland over the weekend in threatening Europe with tariffs, geopolitical risks now turn to economic and trade risks once more. We've seen this episode already in 2025 and here we are again in 2026.Before this though, Trump has always ended up making a TACO situation. But after the move on Venezuela and his bitterness to not being awarded to Nobel Peace Prize, the latest assault on Greenland feels like it could be different.I mean, it might not be in the end but it doesn't seem to matter. At this stage, markets are not waiting around to find out anymore. The dollar selling is almost immediate and it speaks to the confidence and current world view on the greenback.EUR/USD is now up 0.5% on approach to 1.1700 after making a break above both its key hourly moving averages for the first time this year:That shifts the near-term bias to being more bullish once again and is one technical reason in amplifying the dollar declines this session.The de-dollarisation and currency debasement theme continues to run so long as this chaos and unpredictability stays. And that will remain bad news for the dollar in general.But looking at the major currencies space today, there is another standout and that is the Japanese yen. Even with the dollar in the dumps, the yen is also lying at the bottom of the pile with USD/JPY near unchanged at 158.20 currently. That says a lot about the yen currency sentiment after Japan prime minister Takaichi called for a snap election for 8 February.Once again, if something can't go up on good news then there's bound to be trouble ahead. Tokyo intervention when? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Gold Technical Analysis: Gold Futures Today Test Record Levels as Momentum StretchesDate: August 20, 2026Asset: Gold Futures (GC1!)Market: COMEXAnalyst: Itai Levitan, InvestingLive.com, see my gold futures technical analysis video, for today and this week, below:This gold technical analysis focuses on a critical moment for gold futures today, as prices surge +2.84% to trade near $4,725.7, effectively matching the 52-week high at $4,727.6. With gold sitting at record territory after a historic rally, traders and investors are now asking whether upside momentum can continue - or whether profit-taking risk is beginning to rise.Gold is up nearly 71% year-on-year and almost 38% over the past six months, an extraordinary move for a traditionally defensive asset. That context is essential for any realistic gold price forecast going forward.Global markets are in a state of heightened volatility as Gold tops $4,700 for the first time as the surge higher continues amidst a scramble for safe-haven assets. This rally is largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, specifically reports that Trump is threatening tariffs on Greenland if European allies block his bid to purchase the territory—a move Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argues is "very different" from typical trade disputes due to its national security implications. As investors hedge against this uncertainty, Silver jumps to a new all-time high, riding the same wave of fear that is lifting gold. Meanwhile, in South America, a different resource strategy is unfolding as Venezuela plans to boost gold and iron mining output in a bid to secure much-needed foreign currency. In the battery metals sector, volatility is also the theme, as Lithium prices go parabolic, though analysts at Scotiabank have warned that the rally may be moving "too fast, too furious" for fundamentals to support.Gold Futures Today: Key Market Data at a GlanceCurrent price: $4,725.7Daily range: $4,622 – $4,7271-year performance: +70.96%6-month performance: +37.81%From a short-term perspective, gold futures today are trading at the top of the session range, signaling strong bullish control. At the same time, this type of positioning historically coincides with heightened sensitivity to profit-taking flows.Gold Technical Analysis: Why This Area Is a Critical JunctionIn this gold technical analysis, the focus is not on predicting an immediate reversal, but on identifying a junction zone where risk dynamics change.The $4,750 – $4,760 region represents a technical convergence of:Upper channel resistance from a well-defined trend structureParallel alignment with a modified pitchfork projectionProximity to record highs, where historical resistance is limitedJunction zones are areas where institutional participants reassess exposure. They are areas to watch, not levels to trade blindly. This distinction is crucial for maintaining discipline during extended trends.Gold Price Forecast: What Confirmation Would Actually Look LikeFor traders forming a gold price forecast, confirmation matters more than anticipation.Bearish confirmation would not come from price simply touching resistance. Instead, it would likely appear as:A brief overshoot above resistance followed by a red 4-hour candle closing back below the channelTwo consecutive higher-timeframe closes failing to hold above the breakout areaMomentum flattening rather than accelerating after the test of highsUntil such signals appear, the dominant trend in gold futures today technically remains intact.Gold Technical Analysis and Momentum Risk at ExtremesOne of the biggest misconceptions among retail traders is that strong momentum allows for very tight stops. In reality, extended momentum often increases volatility.In advanced gold technical analysis, this means:Pullbacks can be deeper than expectedTight stops are more vulnerable to noiseLate-stage longs often face poor probability despite attractive reward-to-risk ratios on paperThis is why professional traders tend to reduce size, take partial profits, or wait for confirmation rather than chase strength at record levels.Gold Futures Today: Risk Management and Instrument ChoiceGold futures require careful risk calibration. When a technically sound setup requires a wider stop, traders must adapt rather than force the trade.Many participants manage this by using micro gold futures (MGC), which allow:More flexible stop placementBetter alignment between technical structure and dollar riskReduced pressure to trade with unrealistic sizingInstrument choice is an underappreciated but essential component of any sustainable gold futures today strategy.Gold Price Forecast: Is the Upside Still Valid?From a structural perspective, the long-term gold price forecast remains constructive as long as price holds above key trend supports. However, from a tactical standpoint:Upside extension from current prices offers diminishing rewardDownside risk from volatility-driven pullbacks is increasingProbability is no longer as favorable as it was earlier in the trendThis does not imply immediate bearishness. It simply reflects a less attractive entry location for new longs.Gold Technical Analysis Summary: Observe, Don’t AnticipateAt InvestingLive, gold analysis is framed as decision support, not financial advice or prediction.This is a close and junction area:Not a guaranteed reversalNot a signal to chase strengthA zone where price behavior provides informationFor traders already long, this is a moment to reassess exposure and risk. For those waiting for opportunities, patience and confirmation are likely to offer better odds than anticipation.For continued updates, intraday commentary, and forward-looking gold price forecasts, visit InvestingLive.com and follow our market channels. You are also invited to join investingLive Stocks Telegram channel (it's free) https://t.me/investingLiveStocks where we dish out more gems and trade ideas to consider. Trade at your own risk. Always at your risk only. We may be wrong and it's your money, your decisions, your accountability. We're just here sharing our experience, knowledge and opinions. See you on the next one. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

What Trump is threatening on Greenland is very different than the other trade dealsThe worst thing other countries can do is to escalate trade tensions against the USWe'll see a strong economy this yearUS to have real GDP growth of around 4% to 5%Fed chair announcement could be as early as next weekThere are four candidates for the Fed chair presentlyThey look to be doubling down on the rhetoric here and it remains to be seen if they will be open to any talks on the sidelines in Davos. Trump earlier posted about a text message sent by French president Macron about a potential G7 meeting in Paris on Thursday afternoon. However, he did not officially say that he will be accepting that invite. The message:If things with Greenland are indeed "different" in that they will treat their tariffs threat more seriously, then the trade chaos that will ensue is something that won't go down well for the dollar and risk sentiment. So, just be on the lookout for that.The greenback is falling further on the day with EUR/USD now on approach to 1.1700 and USD/CHF down 0.4% to 0.7940 currently. NZD/USD is the lead gainer and is up 0.7% to 0.5840 despite a more negative risk mood.The Japanese yen is the other big loser on the day with it being even weaker than the dollar. USD/JPY is up 0.1% to 158.33 and that says a lot about the yen's plight at the moment when it can't even outpace the greenback. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the main highlight was the UK employment report. The data came mostly in line with expectations, so the reaction was muted. Looking ahead, we don't have much on the agenda other than the German ZEW index. It's expected to improve to 50.0 vs 45.8 prior but it's not going to change anything for the ECB. The focus remains on the recent Trump's escalation over Greenland. There's a tentatively positive development as CNN reported that Trump "conceded in a weekend phone call with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer that he may have been given bad information on the announcement of troop deployments from European countries to Greenland".Now, it's just about waiting to hear (or most likely read on Truth Social) from the man himself. Trump said he will hold a meeting with various parties in Davos on the matter. As a reminder, Trump will be in Davos tomorrow and will give a speech. He will stay until Thursday, so watch out for posts on his Truth Social or headlines regarding Greenland before the weekend. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we don't have much on the agenda. The focus will be on the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. The decisions are usually announced around 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT.We will also get the weekly US ADP jobs data but it's not been a market-moving release lately. We likely need big surprises to trigger a market reaction. Nevertheless, the data has been pointing to gradual improvement in the labour market. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS16:30 GMT/11:30 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)16:30 GMT/11:30 ET - SNB's Chairman Schlegel (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German producer prices saw an average annual decline of 1.2% in 2025, once again exhibiting a decline for a second year running. However, there is a caveat to that figure with it being a case largely owing to a steep decline in energy prices.Of note, energy prices showed a drop of 6.2% compared to the previous year. The breakdown shows that natural gas distribution was 8.3% cheaper on average in 2025 than in 2024, electricity 7.5% cheaper, and petroleum products 5.5% cheaper.If you strip out energy price developments, German producer prices were actually up by 1.2% instead in 2025 compared to the previous year.The more detailed breakdown elsewhere shows intermediate goods were on average 0.3% cheaper in 2025 than in 2024. Meanwhile, the prices for capital goods were on average 1.9% higher, with consumer goods on average 2.7% more expensive in 2025 compared to the year before.The story here is somewhat similar to what we've seen with Germany's consumer price index progression. That being headline annual inflation reflecting a decline that is seen nudging closer to the pivotal 2% mark. However, core annual inflation is still keeping more stubborn and holding above the 2% threshold.The latter continues to be a thorn in the side of the ECB, preventing the central bank from following through on easing monetary policy further since the closing stages of last year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 5.1%Employment change 82k vs 30k expectedPrior -16kAverage weekly earnings +4.7% vs +4.6% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.7%; revised to +4.8%Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.5% vs +4.5% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.6%December payrolls change -43kPrior -38k; revised to -33kAs a general reminder, the UK labour market report is still one plagued by data quality issues. And that looks set to continue further as outlined here last week: UK statistics office evaluates potential delay to its overhauled jobs survey - reportThe jobless rate holds steady at just above 5% in November but payrolls in December continues to fall further. And the latter underscores the continued softening in UK labour market conditions alongside the slow climb in the unemployment rate last year.Wages data continue to hold up somewhat, only reflecting a marginal drop from October. And with consumer prices still holding more stubborn, it's keeping the BOE on edge in trying to decide what to do next on the policy front. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. It's not one that ties to any technical significance, so the impact of the expiries may be more limited. The dollar remains weak overall amid the whole Greenland situation, with traders punishing the greenback on more chaotic and erratic policy by the US administration.The 200-hour moving average sits at 1.1644 with the 100-day moving average at 1.1661. Those will be the more critical levels to be mindful of just in case we do see some pushing and pulling in price action in European morning trade.The expiries will just add a bit of layering to the key technical levels above but it's all about traders defending the lines there that will matter more. In my view, the push back above the key hourly moving averages is a big step this week.Buyers are back in near-term control for the first time since the end of last year. As such, defending that 200-hour moving average line is a vital action in keeping a more bullish near-term bias. There was a bit of a struggle overnight and in early Asia trading to break above it but we're now taking that in stride as the dollar continues to struggle today.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Up, up, and away! Gold bulls really couldn't wish for a better start to the new year. And it's all thanks to one man. The first week was filled with geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela. The next was an attack on Fed independence and added geopolitical risks with Iran. This week, it's a combo of geopolitical strife and economic risks as Trump floats tariffs to try and get his way with Greenland.All of this just continues to exacerbate the same key drivers that have led to the gold rally in the past year.A safety hedge? Check. A hedge against stagflation risks? Check. Erratic US policy leading to a de-dollarisation theme? Check. Currency debasement worries? Check. Strong January seasonal pattern? Check.The only qualm with the surge higher in prices we're seeing is that it might be going too far, too fast.But when you weigh everything against the backdrop above, it's hard not to like the things that gold has going for it.As the run higher continues, the $5,000 mark will be eyed fairly closely next. That will be a big, big level to watch on any profit-taking activity. That especially if it coincides with the January seasonal strength tailing off.This is the kind of rally that will stop when it stops. Just think of it as the catching the falling knife dispensation but in reverse.To the moon! ? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Putin has been invited to join 'Board of Peace'I will impose a 200% tariff on French wines and champagne; Macron will join 'Board of Peace'I know who I want to be the Fed chairFor some context, this whole 'Board of Peace' thing is something that Trump is trying to create as part of a taskforce to oversee the next steps in Gaza. The main concern from global leaders is that Trump is attempting to supplant the current working order in international politics to gain extensive powers beyond transitional governance of the Gaza Strip. This also serves to undermine the existing United Nations framework of course.I'm not sure if he spoke to Macron overnight but his comment above doesn't sound right. Macron has already said that he would reject Trump's invitation and it would be off-brand to expect him to do so. That especially since Europe and the US are not really seeing eye-to-eye on any political ground at the moment - not just this one. So, I'd take it with a pinch of salt as it looks like Trump is just trying to goad Macron and the EU there. Note the tariffs comment just before it.As for the Fed chair, it's still very much up in the air. The two Kevins are still the favourite with Hassett of course being more of a Trump loyalist. However, Waller's bid is starting to gain some traction so we'll have to see. Trump isn't giving anything away just yet. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Geopolitical tensions remain at the forefront as Trump raised the stakes on the whole Greenland situation over the weekend. In case you missed it, he threatened tariffs on eight European countries over their opposition to US control of Greenland. That being Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, and the UK.The tariffs will come in two stages, the first being a 10% levy on all goods starting from 1 February. Thereafter, it will increase to 25% starting from 1 June unless "a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland". Oh, what fun.The erratic policy nature of the US administration is rearing its ugly head again. And that's putting risk sentiment on the defensive. Meanwhile, precious metals are pushing higher while the dollar is struggling in the major currencies space. Go figure. It's pretty much a repeat of 2025 once equities brush aside the geopolitical risks in due time.All of this just continues to play into the structural narrative that has been building since Trump first threatened the world with tariffs in Q1 last year. So, yeah. That is the bigger picture story.For US stocks, it might not be as easy to fade the negative headlines this time around. For one, we've seen such a heated rally in the past year already with tech shares and AI stocks not letting up. But now, AI valuation concerns are creeping in and there are more things to factor in when looking purely into the "AI trade" as seen here.US futures are keeping lower still today awaiting the return of the long weekend in Wall Street. S&P 500 futures are still down 1.0% with Nasdaq futures down 1.1%. It's pointing to a rough start but we'll have to see if investors will feel comfortable enough to bounce back in the early stages this week.I would be more confident in saying there's better scope for European stocks to do so but at the same time, it's also a good time to pull back a little there after having hit fresh record highs last week.Three more years to go. Fun times, innit? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.