PBOC set 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.5%3.5% expected, 3.5% prior1-year LPR 3.0% 3.0% expected, 3.0 prior The eighth consecutive month without a change.More info here. Coming up soon:PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9576 – Reuters estimate This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Citi flags risk of three BOJ hikes if yen stays weak.Citi puts USD/JPY at the centre of the BOJ reaction function, with 160+ the level that could drag rate hikes forward.Summary:Citi’s Hoshino sees risk of three BOJ hikes if yen stays weak USD/JPY > 160 could bring an April move to 1% Another hike in July, with a possible third by year-end Rationale: negative real rates are pressuring the yen Faster BOJ path contrasts with more gradual consensus timingCitigroup’s head of markets for Japan, Akira Hoshino, says the Bank of Japan could end up hiking rates three times in 2026 — effectively doubling the current policy level — if yen weakness persists, highlighting how the exchange rate is becoming a more central input into Japan’s policy debate. In a Bloomberg (gated) interview, Hoshino argued the yen’s slide is fundamentally rooted in negative real interest rates, where yields remain below inflation, and that the BOJ may have little choice but to respond if it wants to change the currency’s direction. He outlined a scenario in which USD/JPY moving above ¥160 would raise the odds of an April hike, taking the overnight call rate up by 25bp to 1%, followed by another 25bp increase in July, and potentially a third move by year-end should the yen remain low. That path is more hawkish than the consensus view, which generally expects the next BOJ move to be months away and often centers on mid-year timing rather than an April trigger. Reuters reporting has also flagged that some policymakers see scope to move sooner if the weak yen threatens to broaden inflation pressures, putting April “in play” even if the BOJ is widely expected to hold steady at its next meeting. Hoshino also pointed to a potential flow channel: if Japanese yields (notably in the 10-year sector) rise to a point where they exceed inflation, domestic institutions may consider reallocating money from overseas back into Japanese fixed income. In his view, a lack of attractive onshore yield options has been one reason the weak yen has proven persistent. Bottom line: Citi’s scenario frames USD/JPY levels — especially 160+ — as a practical catalyst for faster BOJ normalisation, even if the baseline remains gradual. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Coming up from China today is the monthly Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting. Which used to be a subject of mareket focus, but not so much any more. Preview and why here:Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, January 20, 2026: China interest rate setting--The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There is a report that Trump concedes ‘bad information’ on Greenland troop moves, opening path to de-escalation.Trump’s concession on Greenland troop deployments hints at de-escalation, but the strategic standoff with Europe remains unresolved.Summary:Trump privately conceded he may have had “bad information” on Greenland troop movesEuropean deployments were pre-briefed and coordinated with US structuresUK officials see scope for de-escalationCore US–Europe disagreement over Greenland remains unresolvedNew tensions emerge after Trump message to Norway’s PMPresident Donald Trump has privately acknowledged that he may have been given “bad information” regarding recent European troop deployments to Greenland, a concession UK officials see as a potential opening to dial down rapidly escalating transatlantic tensions.According to a senior UK official cited by CNN, Trump made the admission during a weekend phone call with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The remarks relate to announcements last week by several European NATO countries that they would deploy small contingents of military personnel to Greenland to take part in joint exercises with Denmark, moves that drew a sharp reaction from the US president.Officials familiar with the matter say Danish diplomats had briefed Washington ahead of the public announcements. A Danish official told CNN the deployments were not only communicated in advance but were pre-coordinated within existing European and US military structures, underscoring that the exercises were routine rather than provocative.Despite that coordination, the announcements triggered fresh friction inside the NATO alliance, with European diplomats telling CNN they were taken aback by how quickly tensions escalated across the Atlantic. Against that backdrop, UK officials view Trump’s apparent concession as an important signal that miscommunication, rather than intent, may have driven part of the dispute.The broader disagreement over Greenland, however, remains unresolved. Following talks in Washington between Denmark’s foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Greenland’s foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt, and senior US officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, Rasmussen said the US and Europe still hold a “fundamental disagreement” over Greenland’s future.Privately, Danish and Greenland officials said Washington listened to their red lines but did not retreat from Trump’s stated objective of gaining control of the island. They did, however, welcome the creation of a high-level working group as a channel to keep dialogue open. Fresh uncertainty was added after Trump sent a text to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, warning he no longer felt bound to “think purely of Peace” after missing out on a Nobel Prize—introducing a new and unpredictable flashpoint This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Diverging bank views on tariff risks and the US dollar. Dollar risks from Trump’s Greenland tariff threats hinge on escalation, with banks split between growth resilience and sentiment fragility.Summary:Banks split on how tariff threats affect the US dollarSocGen sees fears of foreign US asset selling as overstatedMUFG warns of renewed “sell America” sentimentBoth see risks as modest without major escalationFocus is on sentiment shifts, not crisis dynamicsTwo major banks are taking different angles on the same political risk: President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on parts of Europe if the US fails to secure an agreement to acquire Greenland. While both see risks as contained for now, they diverge on how sensitive the US dollar may be to shifting investor sentiment.At Societe Generale, strategist Kit Juckes argues fears of a large foreign exodus from US assets are overdone. In his view, while European public-sector investors could slow purchases or even sell US assets in response to political pressure, it would take a far more serious escalation before institutions are willing to compromise portfolio performance for political signalling. Juckes also stresses that the dollar is already cheaper than a year ago and that US growth prospects are materially stronger than they were immediately after the sweeping tariffs announced last April. From this perspective, the dollar retains a fundamental buffer even if rhetoric around tariffs intensifies.MUFG, however, is more cautious on sentiment. FX strategist Derek Halpenny warns that tariff threats tied to Greenland could revive a broader “sell America” narrative, encouraging investors to further reduce dollar exposure at the margin. While MUFG does not foresee a disorderly move, it argues that political unpredictability itself can weigh on the currency by nudging global investors to diversify away from the US, particularly if trade tensions with Europe deepen.Importantly, both banks converge on a key point: scale matters. Neither expects aggressive dollar selling unless tensions escalate into a sustained US–Europe trade confrontation. In that sense, the debate is less about direction and more about degree. Societe Generale focuses on relative growth and institutional inertia supporting the dollar, while MUFG emphasises the cumulative impact of policy uncertainty on positioning.For markets, the takeaway is a familiar one: absent a major escalation, dollar moves linked to the Greenland tariff saga are likely to be incremental rather than dramatic, with sentiment oscillating between growth support and political risk. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s snap election raises the stakes for the BOJ–fiscal policy “mix”, with JGB term premium and yen volatility the cleanest market expressions of risk.Summary:Snap election called for 8 Feb, parliament to be dissolved this week Goldman’s key risk: tighter BOJ + looser fiscal settings collideGS sees two 25bp BOJ hikes in 2026, policy rate to 1.25%Higher rates can lift government borrowing costs, stressing debt mathsMarket focus: higher term premium risk for JGBs, spillovers to yen and equitiesGoldman Sachs’ warning on Japan’s “policy mix” risk looks more live now that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called a snap election for February and plans to dissolve parliament this week to seek a fresh mandate. In the note written before the election trigger, Goldman’s core concern was the interaction between tighter Bank of Japan policy and looser fiscal settings. The bank expects the BOJ to deliver two 25bp rate hikes in 2026, in Q2 and Q4, taking the policy rate to 1.25%. That level would still sit below many estimates of “neutral”, but it could nonetheless lift the government’s borrowing costs at a time when Japan’s debt stock is already large and debt-servicing is highly sensitive to yields.That sensitivity is now a front-and-centre election issue. Takaichi is campaigning on a “major policy change” agenda that includes additional stimulus and tax relief measures that markets typically read as debt-negative unless paired with credible medium-term consolidation. Media reports around the election call highlighted investor unease, with bond yields rising and debate sharpening around how far fiscal expansion can go before it clashes with the BOJ’s slow normalisation path. Goldman’s argument is that the combination is what matters: if fiscal policy stays expansionary while the BOJ edges rates higher, the marginal buyer of JGB duration may demand a higher term premium. That can feed a negative loop, higher yields raise interest costs, which in turn increases the fiscal burden, and intensify scrutiny of Japan’s long-run sustainability story.Into the February vote, the near-term market focus is less “Japan crisis” and more risk premium: whether election promises and coalition maths push investors to price a wider distribution of outcomes for JGBs, yen weakness/volatility, and bank/insurer equities.--- Since their (pre-election) note the concerns GS expressed look even mor elikely to come to fruition, even more fiscal worry is likely to be the result of this:Japan election raises odds of sales tax cut, bond yields jump This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez plans to boost mining (gold and iron ore specifically) output and attract foreign metals investment to help earn foreign exchange. She is also promoting broader resource-sector reforms amid U.S. pressure following the dramatic political shift. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand’s services sector has emerged from a prolonged slump, adding to signs that domestic growth momentum is rebuilding into 2026.Summary:Services sector expanded for the first time since February 2024PSI rose to 51.5, a 4.3-point lift from NovemberNew orders and activity drove the improvementEmployment remained in mild contractionCombined with PMI, data point to firmer late-2025 growthComposite PMI in December 53.7 (prior 48.8)New Zealand’s services sector moved back into expansion territory in December for the first time since early 2024, offering a tentative but meaningful signal that domestic activity is stabilising. The latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) rose to 51.5 in December, up sharply from November and above the 50.0 threshold that separates contraction from expansion.While the headline improvement is encouraging, the index remains below its long-run average of 52.8, underscoring that momentum is still modest. Even so, December’s reading marked the end of the longest sustained downturn in the services sector since the survey began, with contraction persisting for 21 consecutive months.Details within the report point to a broadening, albeit uneven, recovery. Three of the five sub-indices moved into expansion. New Orders and Business Activity led the improvement, climbing to 52.5 after four months of contraction, while Activity/Sales followed closely at 52.2. Stocks and Inventories also edged higher into expansion at 51.9, suggesting firms are beginning to prepare for improved demand conditions.Labour market dynamics, however, remain a clear constraint. The Employment sub-index stayed in contraction at 49.6, highlighting ongoing caution among firms when it comes to hiring, despite improved activity indicators.Sentiment measures continue to reflect lingering challenges. Just over half of respondents reported negative conditions, though this proportion eased compared with previous months. Firms cited weak demand, subdued confidence, and elevated living and operating costs as persistent headwinds, alongside seasonal disruptions linked to Christmas shutdowns.More positively, businesses also pointed to seasonal summer demand, improving consumer confidence as interest rates fall, stronger tourism flows, and new contracts as emerging supports. BNZ economists noted that when the PSI rebound is combined with the recent surge in manufacturing activity, the data signal firmer GDP growth into the end of 2025 and improving momentum heading into the new year.The rebound in services activity, alongside a strong manufacturing PMI, supports a more constructive near-term growth outlook for New Zealand and reduces downside GDP risks into early 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It's a light data agenda for the session here in Asia-Pacific on Tuesday, January 20, 2026. Kicking it off is the services PMI from New Zealand, the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for December 2025. Last week we had the December manufacturing PMI (BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index):New Zealand December 2025 Manufacturing PMI 56.1 (prior 51.4)Summary:New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1 in December, the highest since December 2021All five sub-indices expanded, led by a sharp rise in new orders and productionEmployment returned to growth after earlier declines during 2025Seasonal demand helped, but confidence, exports, and infrastructure work also supported activityBNZ sees upside risk to near-term GDP growth from the stronger PMI printThere is no survey of expectations for the services PMI but given the leap higher for manufacturing it seems safe to look for improvement back into expansion. If so it should be another positive for the NZD. Famous last words? Around the same time as we get the People's Bank of China setting the USD/CNY reference rate for the session we'll get the Bank setting its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). This used to a big deal, very highly anticipated, but not any more. However, China's main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day. The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses reverse repo open market operations to inject or absorb funds, influencing interbank lending rates.The LPR setting in December left the 5 year at 3.50% (vs. expected 3.50% and prior 3.5%)and the 1 year at 3.00% (vs. exp. 3.0% and prior 3.0%)There is no change expected for either again today. This will mark the eighth consecutive month without a change.A look back at the past changes in the LPR, since early 2022: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Boris Vujcic selected as ECB Vice PresidentCanada December CPI 2.4% y/y vs 2.2% expectedDeutsche Bank sees US dollar risks around the Greenland noiseMarkets:Gold up $75 to $4669Silver up 5% to $94.68Bitcoin down 2.3%S&P 500 futures down 0.9%NZD leads, JPY lagsIt was a holiday in the USA and that dampened trading and news to start the week. Eyes remained on the fallout from Trump's treat to put tariffs on several EU countries if the US isn't given Greenland. The escalation had stock futures worried but after a drop to -1.2% early in US trading, there was some modest recovery.There was less of an upturn in the US dollar as the market grows increasingly concerned about the large stockpile of USD holdings in Europe and the potential for a real schism. Some once-unthinkingable outcomes are suddenly within the range of possibilities but we will keep watching for developments, particularly from Congress in the hours ahead.The lone notable news of the day was Canadian CPI. The headline ran hot while the core numbers were cooler. Within the report there were signs of strengthening in airfares and restaurant prices, both good signs for the Canadian consumer but despite that, the loonie still underperformed its commodity peers. No doubt, the US-Canada trade angst is a part of that. USD/CAD did fall after the data though, hitting a six-day low, something I spoke with Reuters about.The geopolitical drama is undoubtedly leading to the bid in precious metals with gold touching a fresh record today and silver nearing $95/oz. Bitcoin wasn't able to join in the trade as risk aversion weighed.Eyes in the session ahead will be on Japan as the rumored election was called and there is already talk of more spending. Japanese yields continue to rise and the yen couldn't benefit from broader USD weakness today despite the wave of risk aversion. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's been a rough start to the year for natural gas as prices have fallen back to October levels but help is on the way with a cold forecast for the eastern USA.That has February natural gas up 15% today, through only to a one-week high. The strong start to the gas withdrawal season has been curbed by higher production, leading to prices fall below $4 for February gas and below $3 from March through May.In the next three years there is slate to be a large jump in demand due to US LNG facilities coming online but there are fresh questions about whether that will materially tighten the market or be met with more-intense pumping. The good news for gas is that low oil prices make some oil-weighted wells less economical and that could dampen supply and drilling budgets for 2026, particularly with gas prices depressed once again.Today is so-called 'blue Monday', which is fake 'day' but is supposed to be most-depressing day of the year. It's certainly a cold one where I am in Canada and those cold long-range forecasts don't help.In the bigger picture, Europe is suddenly worried about the supply of natural gas from the United States being weaponized in the same way that Russia used its gas exports. That event caused a near-existential crisis in Europe and this one would be doubly so.Eyes will be on Davos this week as Trump travels to Europe and will meet with European counterparts. The stakes certainly got raised and broader markets are concerned. It's a US holiday but S&P 500 futures are down 0.9% to start the week and gold hit another fresh record high. The US dollar is under pressure as the market grows concerned about a fresh EU-US trade war. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Croatian central banker Boris Vujcic was selected as the next Vice President of the European Central Bank. He's a moderate hawk.Vujcic is a classic continuity pick. He’s been governor of Croatia’s central bank since 2012 and spent much of that time doing the unglamorous but important work of getting the country ready for the euro. When Croatia finally joined the euro in 2023, it went smoothly, which is a strong endorsement of his skills.He’s not known as a big speechmaker or a policy entrepreneur. In Governing Council meetings he’s been pragmatic, inflation-aware, and generally aligned with the ECB consensus. He supported aggressive action when inflation surged but hasn’t pushed for experimentation or political messaging. Markets tend to see him as steady hands rather than a signal of change.The appointment also fits the ECB’s internal logic. With Lagarde still president and de Guindos coming from Spain, Vujcic brings balance as a technocrat from a newer euro-area member rather than a heavyweight political figure from a big country. This is a win for the new Eurozone member and was likely some kind of trade-off as Portugal's Mario Centeno was seen as the front-runner. You wonder if he might get some support for the ECB Presidency next year instead, though the main touted candidates are Knot, de Cos and Schnabel.The final candidates for the ECB Vice Presidency were said to be:Martins Kazaks - Governor, Bank of Latvia (Latvia)Olli Rehn — Governor, Bank of Finland (Finland)Boris Vujčić — Governor, Croatian National Bank (Croatia)Madis Müller — Governor, Eesti Pank (Estonia)Rimantas Šadžius — Former Minister of Finance (Lithuania) This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The current Vice President of the European Central Bank is Luis de Guindos of Spain, who has been serving in the role since June 2018 but will step down in May and the political wrangling for a replacement is ongoing.A Eurogroup meeting is underway and some reports say the next ECB vie president is on the agenda, with a selection being possible. A winner would need support from at least 16 of 21 countries, covering 65% of the population. The nominee could be picked today but the ECB and European Parliament would need to be consulted before leaders confirm the winner in March.The frontrunner is seen as Mário Centeno, who was formerly the governor of the Bank of Portugal. However before today's meeting, Portugal’s finance minister said the election of Ceneno will be "difficult", but that there is still "some hope". Working against him is that before de Guindos, the Vice President was also from Portugal -- Vitor Constancio. Before him, there were VPs from Greece and France.There is always some horse-trading over this at the eurozone level and it sometimes results in a dark-horse candidates getting pushed to the front. Here are the other names that have been toutedMartins Kazaks - Governor, Bank of Latvia (Latvia)Olli Rehn — Governor, Bank of Finland (Finland)Boris Vujčić — Governor, Croatian National Bank (Croatia)Madis Müller — Governor, Eesti Pank (Estonia)Rimantas Šadžius — Former Minister of Finance (Lithuania)The bigger decision will be on the next ECB President, as Lagarde's term will end in October 2027.The Europgroup meeting is expected to conclude by 18:45 CET (1245 pm ET), followed by a press conference.In terms of market moves, I wouldn't imagine there will be a reaction. The euro is up 44 pips today to 1.1641. More likely to move the markets are any comments in the press conference about Greenland. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is at the lows of the day across most of the foreign exchange market.The possibility of a fresh trade war is coming into focus as the US President grows increasingly erratic in insisting the US annex Greenland. That's setting up a battle with the EU and the potential for a financial showdown, including counter tariffs.It's hard to see what the end game is here but there's always the potential for Europe to roll over or for Congress to step in and put an end to this. If it escalates, there are trillions of dollars of USD assets held in Europe and you have to think that central banks will be less inclined to hold US dollars.These systems are so intertwined that it could be catastrophic for many businesses if there is a genuine schism. For Denmark, the central bank doesn't publish its reserve holdings but has $98 billion in assets and typically those are around 50% in US dollars. They may consider selling that.Those kinds of flows may help to explain why the US dollar is under some pressure today.That said, the 40 pip bounce in the euro today only unwinds the selling from Thurs/Fri. The low at the open in the euro was the worst level since November 30.The two top performers today are telling: The Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar.The Swiss currency is always a safe haven and its long-term neutrality makes it a go-to haven in times of stress. That said, it's not 1939 anymore and Switzerland can only absorb so much in terms of capital inflows before it resorts to negative rates once again. New Zealand is more of a geographic safe haven. The pacific island nation is hidden away in an increasingly uncertain world. It also has a strong rule of law and values that attractive to those who would flee.It's a strange time in markets but that's the trade. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump's letter to Norway pretty much sums it up:"Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace…” The US President sent that out along with several ultimatums demanding the US annex Greenland. Europe is reeling in the aftermath and there is no telling which way this will go. Trump has threatened tariffs against seven EU countries and some Europeans are dangling the anti-coercion response.The latter response gets me to what I believe will be the black swan of the 21st century: The breakdown of the global intellectual property regime.Under the EU Anti-Coercion Instrument the EU can adopt countermeasures if a non-EU country uses trade, investment, or regulatory pressure to force a policy change. Among the permitted responses are measures affecting intellectual property protections, including the suspension of IP protections, like patents, trademarks, copyrights and designs. They can also restrict royalty payments and freeze licencing income. This is a massive vulnerability for the United States, whose entire tech ecosystem relies on the global IP system. I always imagined that China would invalidate it and flood the world with patented US goods at rock-bottom prices but maybe the breakdown will start in the EU.Taking a step back, it's hard to believe that we are even here. Dips in equity markets on Trump insanity have always been temporary as the checks and balances pull him back in. Additionally, he's a person who has always graded himself based on the returns in the stock market so there was a self-disciplining in place. But a guy who would throw a fit over the Nobel Peace Prize and threaten Greenland is capable of anything and that's a tough paradigm to trade. S&P 500 futures are down 1.2%.Canadian markets are open today and the risk aversion should be balanced by a rise in gold stocks after gold hit a record $4689. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 2.2%Inflation m/m -0.2% vs +0.1% priorBOC core 2.8% vs 2.9% priorBOC core m/m -0.4% vs -0.1% priorCore CPI % m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% priorCPI median +2.5% vs +2.8% expected CPI trim +2.7% vs +2.8% expectedCPI common +2.8% vs 2.8% priorEx gasoline +3.0% vs +2.6% priorThe market has been pricing in a chance of a rate hike this year and those odds just ticked a bit higher after this inflation report. Notably, there is something of a technical change with this report as the HST (Canada's VAT) tax began in Dec 14, 2024 and that fell out of the calculation.Year over year, higher restaurant prices were the largest contributor to faster growth in the all-items CPI, which echos signs of a strong consumer. Grocery store prices also rose 5.0% y/y.USD/CAD dipped about 8 pips on the release.Back in November, headline inflation held steady with a modest 0.1% monthly rise, while core inflation metrics signaled cooling. Both CPI median and trim decelerated to 2.8%, coming in slightly below expectations. This downward pressure was primarily driven by lower prices for travel and accommodation, alongside slower growth in rent costs, providing generally positive data for the Bank of Canada.However, these service-sector declines were offset by rising goods prices, most notably at the grocery store. Food inflation accelerated to 4.7% year-over-year—the steepest rise since late 2023—fueled by sharp spikes in staples like frozen beef (+17.7%) and coffee (+27.8%).Canadian inflation has followed a dramatic volatility curve since 2021. After surging due to post-pandemic supply shocks, headline CPI peaked at a generational high of 8.1% in June 2022. Aggressive interest rate hikes successfully forced a broad deceleration throughout 2023 and 2024, bringing overall inflation back near the 2% target by 2025.However, the "last mile" has proven difficult; while headline numbers have stabilized, essential costs like groceries and shelter remain stubbornly elevated entering 2026. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Silver jumps to a new all-time high as Trump threatens tariffs over GreenlandNasdaq futures extend losses as Trump declares trade war over Greenland. What's next?Another start to the week, another one with Trump making the headlinesTrump and TACO: Will it be different this time?One last chance to preserve the old world order?European officials continue to hit back at Trump over Greenland tariffs threatEU says no planned meeting between von der Leyen and Trump in Davos for nowJapan prime minister Takaichi makes announcement to call for snap electionJapan prime minister Takaichi says ready to take necessary action on speculative FX movesMarkets:CHF leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 1.0%Gold up 1.6% to $4,670.12WTI crude oil down 0.7% to $59.00Bitcoin down 2.5% to $92,989Once again, it's another start to the week with Trump making all the headlines. This time around, he delivered a tariffs threat to European countries "meddling" with Greenland affairs as he steps up geopolitical tensions in the region. All this of course before he travels to Davos for the World Economic Forum later this week.Trump threatened 10% tariffs on all goods starting 1 February, with the potential to escalate that to 25% come 1 June after.And that's keeping markets on the defensive with the risk mood looking sour to start the new week. US markets might be closed but equity futures are battered with S&P 500 futures down 1%. In Europe, major indices in the region are also bleeding by over 1% as geopolitical risks now transfer over to economic risks.In the major currencies space, the dollar is lower across the board as the narrative here just adds to the debasement trade. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.1626 with USD/CHF down 0.6% to 0.7983 with the Swiss franc the most favoured amid the risk-off flows.USD/JPY had some back and forth but is sitting little changed near 158.00 on the day. That as Japan prime minister Takaichi confirms a snap election for 8 February in order to try and consolidate power after having began her term in October last year.As traders stick with the currency debasement trade, the big winners are once again precious metals. Gold and silver and rallying strongly after a gap higher with the latter pushing gains of over 3% on the day above $93. The former is also posting solid gains of just under 2% around $4,670 as it remains the preferred option for traders and investors to diversify away from fiat currencies. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSilver jumped into a new all-time high today following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from June 1 in case of no deal.As seen last year, tariff threats have been boosting precious metals on higher stagflation risks. In fact, high tariffs generally lead to lower growth and higher inflation. Stagflation is the best environment for silver.Everyone is now waiting for the famous TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out") trade. The market's focus in now on this latest escalation, so monitoring the developments will be key and will offer trading opportunities. The risk sentiment will likely stay on the defensive until we get some clear de-escalation from Trump. If things escalate further, we should see another strong rally. Conversely, if we end up once again with Trump easing his threats, silver will likely drop back to the previous levels.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver jumped into a new all-time high today following Trump’s escalation over Greenland over the weekend. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into new all-time highs. Such a big pullback will likely require de-escalation and/or strong US data.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been consolidating around the highs recently as traders awaited new catalysts. This new development gave silver a boost, but the buyers will want to see a break above the 94.00 resistance to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk above the high to target a drop back into the 86.50 support.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is forming what looks like a bullish flag right at the resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking to the upside to pile in for a rally into new record highs, while the sellers will look for a downside breakout to increase the bearish bets into the 86.50 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we have the US Flash PMIs. Watch out also for headlines and Trump’s posts on Truth Social regarding Greenland as the market’s focus remains on this latest trade war. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Crypto markets continue to deliver a mix of regulatory developments, institutional experimentation, and long-awaited project launches, highlighting how digital assets are advancing on multiple fronts at once. One of the more notable policy-driven stories comes from South Asia.Pakistan Explores Cross-Border Payments Using World Liberty’s USD1Pakistan has signed an agreement with a firm connected to World Liberty Financial, the primary crypto business associated with U.S. President Donald Trump’s family, to explore the use of USD1, World Liberty’s stablecoin, for cross-border payments.The move reflects a broader trend among emerging markets exploring blockchain-based payment rails to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and modernize cross-border transactions. The accelerated adoption could fuel the price increase, as the long-term WLFI price prediction suggests the token hitting as high as $0.075 this year. XYZVerse Lists XYZ After $15M PresaleAlongside policy and infrastructure developments, January is also seeing key project-level milestones, including the public market debut of XYZVerse.Following a presale that raised over $15 million, XYZVerse is about to hold a Token Generation Event (TGE) and list its native $XYZ token on exchanges. The listing marks the project’s transition from private fundraising to open market trading, where price discovery is now driven by liquidity and demand rather than staged presale pricing.XYZVerse originally launched as the first all-sports meme coin but has since evolved into a utility-focused esports platform. The $XYZ token underpins participation across the ecosystem, enabling fan voting, match predictions, rewards, and access to exclusive content.Esports Utility Enters Public MarketsA central component of XYZVerse’s ecosystem is its CS2 League, a crypto-powered Counter-Strike 2 esports competition built with on-chain participation mechanics. The league features live matches, fan-driven interaction, and transparent reward distribution recorded on-chain, positioning XYZVerse as one of the more utility-oriented projects emerging from the meme token space.Where Memes Meet Competitive GamingXYZVerse has emerged at the intersection of three distinct layers within the crypto landscape:Meme culture as an attention engineSports and esports participation as a retention layerOn-chain systems to track engagement and distribute rewardsThis positioning reflects a broader shift that became increasingly visible toward the end of 2025. While meme tokens continue to dominate attention cycles, investors and users alike have grown more selective, focusing on whether projects can sustain activity once the initial momentum fades. Recurring engagement, rather than one-off hype, has become a key differentiator.XYZVerse’s response to this shift has been to anchor its ecosystem around live, participatory products. Rather than relying solely on branding or social momentum, the project has leaned into esports as a framework where repeat interaction, competition, and community involvement are already native behaviors.A Market Moving on Multiple FrontsTogether, the developments around USD1 and XYZVerse highlight the range of activity currently unfolding across the crypto sector. On one end, governments and regulators are testing stablecoins as payment infrastructure. On the other, consumer-facing platforms are pushing blockchain integration into esports and digital entertainment.Stay tuned for official updates on where and when $XYZ hits exchanges. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakened across the board to start the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from June 1 in case of no deal.As seen last year, risk-off moves caused by Trump’s tariffs stemmed from growth worries. Growth worries trigger a selloff in the stock market and in turn a fall in Treasury yields on expected future weakness in the economy. This in turn weighs on the greenback on expected earlier or larger rate cuts down the road. This is always taken in relation to the expectations. Given the recent rally in the USD on some slightly hawkish repricing, this latest escalation kind of unwinds those bets. If we were to get a de-escalation now, the US Dollar would probably rally again, and more so if the economic data in the next weeks and months strengthens. EUR:On the EUR side, the threat of tariffs on the largest European economies isn’t good news of course, but given the recent positioning, it weighed more on the greenback. The Fed has also much more room to cut rates compared to the ECB, which has already reached the neutral level and has inflation at target. In terms of monetary policy, the ECB remains in a neutral stance reaffirming its data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to policy decisions. ECB members continue to repeat that the current policy is appropriate, and they won’t respond to small or short-term deviations from their 2% target. The data has been supporting the central bank’s neutral stance, with inflation data recently surprising to the downside.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD opened lower today but eventually closed the gap and extended the gains into the downward trendline. We can expect the sellers to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 1.15 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 1.18 level next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly today’s price action with the pair struggling to extend the gains near the trendline. There’s not much we can add here as the sellers will look for short opportunities around these levels with a defined risk above the trendline, while the buyers will wait for a break above the trendline to start targeting new highs.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is trading at the upper bound of the average daily range for today. This suggests that we might not see much more upside today and the price could either consolidate here or pull back. There’s a minor support zone around the 1.16 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a break above the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we have the Eurozone and US Flash PMIs. Watch out also for headlines and Trump’s posts on Truth Social regarding Greenland as the market’s focus remains on this latest trade war. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.