As a reminder, the World Economic Forum (WEF) is taking place in Davos this week. The event starts today until Friday but most of what we'll be seeing on the agenda and on the sidelines are likely to take place from tomorrow onwards. You can check out the highlights of the agenda from earlier here: One last chance to preserve the old world order?With global leaders set to get together, it's going to be a bit of an awkward one now after Trump just threatened tariffs against European countries over the Greenland situation. In his words, the tariffs will be on "any and all goods" unless "a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland". ?It will be a 10% levy starting from 1 February with it potentially jumping to 25% come 1 June after.For now, the EU is still very much planning its retaliatory actions. And von der Leyen has to bring something to the table in any discussions with Trump on the matter. As things stand, Trump wants to play things out such as that he holds all the cards. However, we all know that this is all part of his negotiating tactic. Go big in the first ask and then water things down after.That being said, the whole matter of Greenland might be a different situation than what we've seen before. So, we will have to see how serious this really is as compared to previous TACO episodes. Venezuela now serves as a precedent that anything goes.The EU is reaffirming that there is no planned meeting yet between von der Leyen and Trump but that "engagement with the US is still continuing on all levels". Adding that intensive consultations are now taking place among member states on a possible response to the US' tariffs threat. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe Nasdaq futures opened lower today following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from June 1 in case of no deal.As seen last year, risk-off moves caused by Trump’s tariffs stemmed from growth worries. Growth expectations are the main driver of stock markets and when something leads to negative expectations, we generally get selling pressure until those expectations are corrected. Everyone is now waiting for the famous TACO ("Trump Always Chickens Out") trade. The market's focus in now on this latest escalation, so monitoring the developments will be key and will offer trading opportunities. The risk sentiment will likely stay on the defensive until we get some clear de-escalation from Trump. If things escalate further, we should see more downside before Trump eventually folds.As a reminder, the US cash equity markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq broke out of the rising wedge to the downside following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. The natural target is generally the base of the wedge, which in this case stand around the 24,900 level. We might need further escalation or just no positive developments to keep the bearish pressure intact. If the price gets there, we can expect the dip-buyers to step in with a defined risk below the 24,900 level to position for a rally into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 24,200 level next.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has fallen to the first key swing level around 25,270. This is going to be the first dip-buying opportunity with a defined risk below the swing level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 24,900 level next.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will likely start piling in around these levels to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will wait for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the next key level.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we have the US Flash PMIs. Watch out also for headlines and Trump’s posts on Truth Social regarding Greenland as the market’s focus remains on this latest trade war. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Will not comment on forex levelsBut will take appropriate action if neededStill examining source of revenues to fund consumption tax cutHave to be mindful of movements in forex, interest rates in considering revenues to fund consumption tax cutWill keep an eye out on speculative forex moves, ready to take necessary actionEarlier, she also commented that she will "ensure sustainability of Japan's fiscal state by lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio". That will be tough considering how expansive her fiscal policies are and that is already the main reason why the Japanese yen has been battered for months on end since October.The Takaichi trade summarised:As she now calls for a snap election, will it be a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact as outlined here?It will be interesting to see if this really backfires on Takaichi. But if that were to happen, expect yen shorts to be covered in a massive manner.For now though, traders remain confident that things will not change in terms of policy heading for Japan. USD/JPY is down 0.1% to 157.93 today and continues to keep around the 158.00 level after a brief dip to 157.42 earlier in the day amid some safety flows. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.1%Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%The key statistic here is core annual inflation, which continues to hold above the 2% threshold for now. As such, that will keep the ECB sidelined in waiting on their next potential policy move. As mentioned before, the main sticking point at this stage is Germany mostly and that will continue to keep policymakers on edge as we get into the new year.Looking at the breakdown, food price inflation remains elevated as well at around 2.5% with services inflation clearly still the standout at 3.4% in December. In looking at the contributions to the headline inflation number:Food, alcohol, & tobacco +0.49%Energy -0.18%Non-energy industrial goods +0.09%Services +1.54% This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:US Dollar weakened across the board on the latest Trump's trade warJapanese Yen found support from more intense verbal intervention and rate hike expectationsUSD/JPY bounced from a major trendline, now at crossroads.FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakened across the board to start the week following Trump’s escalation over Greenland. In fact, the US President threatened to impose 10% tariffs starting on February 1 on the UK, France, Germany and a few other European countries unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs will rise to 25% from June 1 in case of no deal. As seen last year, risk-off moves caused by Trump’s tariffs stemmed from growth worries. Growth worries trigger a selloff in the stock market and in turn a fall in Treasury yields on expected future weakness in the economy. In terms of monetary policy, traders now expect 48 bps of easing by year-end following a strong US jobless claims report last week. The Fed members continue to support the current patient and data-dependent stance with renewed weakness in labour market data or bigger than expected easing in inflation needed for earlier rate cuts. JPY:On the JPY side, last week’s barrage of verbal intervention from Japanese officials after the price broke above the 2025 high helped to stop the recent selloff in the yen. Moreover, we got a Bloomberg report last week saying that the BoJ officials were paying more attention than before on the weakening yen and its potential impact on inflation. According to people familiar with the matter, this could have implication for future rate hikes even though the central bank is likely to hold rates steady this week. The JPY strengthened on the news as the odds of a rate hike in March jumped to 22% before receding a bit afterwards. A hike in March would be much sooner than expected and could keep the JPY supported in the short-term if speculations of an earlier hike keep increasing. The central bank is still placing a great deal on wage growth, so wage data and spring wage negotiations remain key. The market is now pricing around 46 bps of tightening by year end. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to slowly edge lower after failing to sustain the break above the 2025 high. The sellers piled in once the price fell back below the 158.87 level to target the 154.50 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will either wait for the price to break above the 158.87 level again or to come into the support before stepping in with more conviction.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we eventually got the pullback into the upward trendline that is defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers stepped in around the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 154.50 support next.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the recent pullback. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to target a break below the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we have the Japanese CPI, the BoJ policy decision and the US Flash PMIs. Keep also an eye on the World Economic Forum in Davos as Trump could post something on Truth Social regarding this latest trade war. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This is already shaping up to be Spain's worst rail crash in more than a decade. For some context, the incident involved carriages on a Madrid-bound train that derailed and crossed over to the opposite tracks, colliding with an oncoming train in Adamuz on Sunday evening.The death toll is "not yet final", according to Spain's transport minister. That as more than a hundred passengers are still being treated in hospital. There were roughly four hundred passengers and staff onboard both trains.Spain's prime minister Sanchez has now said that he will cancel his trip to Davos to attend to the situation above. He was due to deliver a special address at the World Economic Forum on 21 January at 0900 GMT. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

She is making it official now as she announces that she will be calling a snap election on 23 January. That is when the next ordinary Diet session takes place, in which she will dissolve the lower house of parliament. Takaichi also adds that she will be asking for a mandate to continue as prime minister of Japan.The likely dates for the snap election are either 8 February or 15 February at this point. All this so as to leave some room for lawmakers and policymakers to come together to deliver on the budget in March. Update: Takaichi confirms that she will call for a snap election on 8 February.She reaffirms that her administration will be putting an end to excessively tight fiscal policy, while also tackling high prices. She can lay out any reasons she wants to justify calling for a snap election here. However, it is clear that the power play is all about power consolidation.As mentioned before:"So, why is Takaichi planning this move here?It's mostly to shore up support and increase the number of ruling coalition seats while her support ratings remain high. All that of course before opposition lawmakers start piling on the questions on her policy setting when the Diet session begins. And the ongoing feud between Japan and China won't make things easy for her, as it offers up free ammunition for other lawmakers to question her leadership." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Monday starts quietly, with the U.S. observing a bank holiday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day but Canada will get its inflation data prints. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. Wednesday brings inflation data from the U.K. while Thursday Australia will publish its employment change and unemployment rate. In the U.S., attention will turn to the core PCE price index m/m, along with October PCE data and final GDP q/q. New Zealand will also release its inflation figures. Finally, on Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision, while the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. will get their flash manufacturing and services PMI data.This week will also include the World Economic Forum’s annual meetings in Davos. In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is -0.4% versus 0.1% previously. Median CPI y/y is expected to ease to 2.7% from 2.8%, trimmed CPI y/y is also seen slipping from 2.8% to 2.7%, while common CPI y/y is likely to remain unchanged at 2.8%. The Bank of Canada will closely monitor this release to assess whether inflation pressures remain above its 2% target. Headline CPI is still expected to print above target, while underlying price pressures are likely to show only modest improvement, with core inflation remaining relatively firm. Some relief is expected from energy prices, particularly due to lower gasoline costs, which should push energy inflation further into negative territory. However, analysts caution that this easing could be offset by continued strength in food prices, which remain elevated and may be boosted by base effects linked to last year’s temporary tax measures. Grocery inflation, in particular, continues to run hot. Overall, inflation excluding food and energy is expected to trend lower, though it will likely remain above the Bank’s target, indicating that price pressures are easing only gradually. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged for now, with markets anticipating that the next move will be a rate hike, though not this year. In the U.K., the consensus expects the claimant count to rise by 18.8K versus 20.1K previously. The average earnings index 3m/y is forecast at 4.6%, down from 4.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge lower from 5.1% to 5.0%. This week’s labour market data is likely to reinforce the Bank of England’s cautious stance on rate cuts. While a modest decline in the unemployment rate is anticipated, analysts view this as temporary and expect wage growth to continue easing. If confirmed, these trends could open the door for further policy easing, potentially as early as March. For U.K. inflation, the consensus expects headline CPI to rise from 3.2% to 3.3% y/y, with core CPI also edging up from 3.2% to 3.3%. ING analysts note that this release will hinge heavily on airfares, which typically rise over the holiday period. Last year’s seasonal increase was unusually muted, so a more typical Christmas-related jump in ticket prices this time could push services inflation higher. The magnitude of the move will depend on the timing of the ONS price collection, creating a small risk of a temporary spike that would likely reverse in January but could appear uncomfortable for the Bank of England in the near term. Food prices will also be important to watch, as they pose a short-term upside risk. However, trends in other European countries continue to point toward easing price pressures. Overall, ING expects U.K. inflation to return toward the BoE’s 2.0% target around April. In Australia, the consensus expects employment to rise by 26.5K, following a decline of 21.3K previously, while the unemployment rate is forecast to edge up from 4.3% to 4.4%. November employment data came in weaker than expected, with a notable drop that extended a run of softer job growth in recent months. On a three-month basis, employment gains have slowed to a pace well below historical norms, reinforcing the view that labour market momentum is easing. Seasonal volatility around the summer period has also become more pronounced in recent years, reflecting post-pandemic shifts in leave patterns that continue to complicate seasonal adjustments. Against this backdrop, the latest result should be viewed as part of a gradual cooling rather than a sharp deterioration. Westpac analysts expect a modest rebound in December, with employment likely to recoup some of November’s decline. Even so, underlying trends point to continued moderation rather than a return to strong hiring. Despite November’s weak employment outcome, the unemployment rate did not rise. Instead, a small decline in the number of unemployed reflected a drop in labour force participation, which slipped to 66.7% and helped keep the jobless rate unchanged at 4.3%. Looking through the month-to-month noise, however, the broader trend still suggests gradual labour market cooling, with the three-month average unemployment rate edging higher compared with earlier in the year. Looking ahead, participation is expected to recover modestly. Combined with a rebound in employment, this would likely push the unemployment rate slightly higher to around 4.4%, marking a noticeable increase compared with a year ago and reinforcing the picture of a slowly softening labour market. Wells Fargo analysts think that from a monetary-policy perspective the RBA is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% through the end of the year. Any future move is more likely to be a rate hike, but this would require a clear re-acceleration in labour market strength and persistently elevated inflation. In the U.S., the consensus for the core PCE price index m/m is 0.2% and the release will also include October data. The report is likely to confirm that underlying inflation remains contained, even as tariff-related pressures linger.The Fed will enter its blackout period ahead of the January 28 meeting for which current market expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged. In New Zealand, the consensus for CPI q/q is 0.5% vs. 1.0% previously. Inflation is expected to pick up modestly in the December quarter, with consumer prices likely rising by around 0.5%, leaving the annual inflation rate broadly unchanged at roughly 3.0%. The quarterly increase is expected to be driven mainly by higher fuel costs and typical seasonal rises in travel and accommodation prices, partly offset by a seasonal decline in food prices. Beneath the headline, underlying inflation pressures have continued to ease over the past year, with most core measures now sitting within the 2–3% range. At this week’s meeting, the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%. As a reminder, last year the Bank delivered two rate hikes, lifting borrowing costs to levels not seen in decades. There were hints in December that an additional rate hike could be forthcoming, but the conditions for further tightening were not met, as incoming data points since then have been mixed. Inflation in Japan remains a concern, as it is still running above the BoJ’s target. However, uncertainty around wage dynamics, particularly following a softer-than-expected November reading, has clouded the timing of the next move, especially if this weakness persists. At the same time, renewed yen depreciation has added another layer of complexity, particularly amid political uncertainty that could lead to looser fiscal policy and higher government spending. A weaker currency risks pushing up prices for imported goods, which could weigh on household spending. For now, the BoJ is expected to keep rates on hold in the near term, though risks appear skewed toward an earlier move and potentially a more aggressive tightening cycle if inflation pressures continue. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

The latest tariffs threat from US president Trump further exacerbates uncertainty with regards to trade policy. And it also shows that nothing is set in stone when it comes to any "trade deal" that has been struck. As a reminder, Trump threatened the EU with additional tariffs over the weekend unless "a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland".He will be slapping 10% tariffs on "any and all goods" starting from 1 February and that will jump up to 25% on 1 June after.The EU is already preparing to hit back and we're now seeing some added commentary this morning from the region. French finance minister Roland Lescure says that:Blackmailing countries is unacceptableEuropean countries must remain unitedWe must be prepared to use the EU's anti-coercion mechanismWill organise a G7 finance ministers' meeting in the coming daysWe regret that there is an escalation btu Europe needs to be able to act autonomouslyGerman finance minister Lars Klingbeil also chips in by saying:There will be a strong response to US tariffsEU is ready to finda solution with the USHave no interest in a Transatlantic escalationMeanwhile, Norway prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre is also out saying that Trump's tariffs announcement is "unacceptable". That as Trump wrote a letter to Støre to say that he no longer felt an "obligation to think purely of peace", clearly still reflecting his saltiness in not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The main question now is whether or not the EU is willing to go tit-for-tat with the US on tariffs in escalating the situation further. If the EU does intend to call Trump's bluff in anticipating a TACO situation, they have to be prepared that things could get ugly before they get better. One doesn't need to look too far back to the whole tariffs war with China last year for an example. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Over the weekend, Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. Trump is obsessed with Greenland citing national security reasons. According to him, if the US doesn't take over Greenland, Russia and China will. The reason is probably another. Greenland holds some of the world's largest untapped deposits of rare earth minerals, which are critical for tech manufacturing and advanced weaponry. Currently, China dominates the global supply chain for these minerals. Owning or controlling Greenland’s resources would significantly reduce U.S. economic and military reliance on Chinese exports.Since last year, we've seen Trump using tariff threats as a type of coercion to force other countries to accept his demands. Every time he threatened to impose tariffs, he set a future date for them to come into effect. He used this strategy over and over again to speed up or put pressure on negotiations. Eventually, he always got away with something or outright folded his hand.This led to the famous TACO trade ("Trump Always Chickens Out") when the markets react negatively to his tariff threats, stay in a kind of a limbo for some time, and eventually rally as he reaches an agreement or outright folds due to fears of too much market damage (see Liberation Day). It became so obvious that the reactions to his threats started to have less and less effect.Trump loves the stock market, it's his "benchmark" of success. He loves to brag about record highs and how that is the result of his actions. Moreover, this year we have the midterm elections and we've already seen Trump trying to appease the voters with affordability policies. He's unlikely to push too hard on tariffs if that results in weakness for the stock market.This week we have the World Economic Forum in Davos from 19th to 23th January. Trump will be there on Wednesday and other G7 leaders are also expected. That might be the first chance for a meeting. Trump will likely post something on his Truth Social if that happens. If we see de-escalatory language, the market will likely rally on that. In any case, the market's focus is now on this latest trade war, and even if we might fade the initial negative reaction on the TACO expectations, the upside in the stock market will likely remain capped and could extend on further escalation until we get a resolution. Therefore, watch out for develpments in the next days and weeks as they will provide trading opportunities. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We may not see the same people in the classic photo above, but the situation speaks to the same kind of mood as we approach perhaps the biggest WEF event ever. Yes, it is that time of the year again. Global politics will take center stage and all eyes are on Davos as US president Trump is set to make a live appearance after having done so virtually last year.Make no mistake about it. Trump loves Davos. It's his one chance a year to act like the mafia boss among global leaders and make a show of his power by flaunting the US agenda.This time will be no different. And he's already setting the stage up for it with the announcements over the weekend.Trump has already launched an attack on the EU, threatening tariffs unless he gets his way with Greenland. Now, that will surely make for a bewildering yet awkward meet in Davos in the coming days.The theme that the forum will carry this year is 'A Spirit of Dialogue'. It is meant to emphasise on communication among global players when geopolitical tensions are pushing everything to the edge.And while there will surely be plenty of talking moments and conversations on the sidelines, the Trump approach has always been to use this kind of opportunity to hard sell his ideals and convictions.So, is the Davos agenda basically dead on arrival? Perhaps.EU leaders will definitely want to find ways to speak to Trump about Greenland but don't expect him to entertain offers here. Besides the Greenland issue, Trump will also have to deal with other global influences including the likes of Canada, Ukraine, and China. So, expect the big man to want to show that he holds all the cards on the table.Either way, it's worth tuning in and keeping an eye out for key headlines during the event. Here are some of the main speakers on the agenda on the week:20/1 0950 GMT - European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen delivers her special address**20/1 1020 GMT - China vice premier He Lifeng delivers his special address*20/1 1300 GMT - French president Emmanuel Macron delivers his special address*20/1 1330 GMT - US Treasury secretary Bessent participates in a speaking session*20/1 1530 GMT - Canada prime minister Mark Carney delivers his special address*21/1 1030 GMT - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang participates in a speaking session*21/1 1200 GMT - JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon participates in a speaking session*21/1 1330 GMT - US president Donald Trump delivers his special address***22/1 1030 GMT - Germany chancellor Friedrich Merz delivers his special address*The full programme can be found here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we only have the final Eurozone CPI report. This is not a market-moving release given that the market pays more attention to the Flash report. It's rare to see big deviations from the preliminary numbers, so the reaction will likely be muted.Today's session (and the next days really) will be all about the latest Trump's trade war against the UK, France, Germany and other European countries over Greenland. As a reminder, Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland.The initial reaction was of course risk-off across the board. This kind of risk aversion will likely persist until we get some clear de-escalation, which might come in the second half of the week (potentially with a Truth Social post) as Trump and other leaders will be in Davos for the World Economic Forum (WEF).AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight will be the Canadian CPI report. The BoC is focused mostly on underlying inflation, so the market's attention will be on the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y which is expected at 2.7% vs 2.8% prior.As a reminder, following the blockbuster November's Canadian jobs report, the market fully priced in a rate hike from the BoC in 2026. At its policy meeting, the BoC didn't validate the market's bets highlighting the weaker details and repeating that underlying inflation was seen around target. The last inflation report came out softer than expected and some of the hawkish bets were pared back with the market now seeing a total of 11 bps of tightening by year-end compared to 25 bps before the inflation data. Moreover, the last jobs report despite coming in better than expected, wasn't as strong as the prior one. Lastly, it's worth noting that today is a US holiday with the US stock and bond markets closed. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS13:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's Donnery (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It's looking rough out there as geopolitical tensions now spill over to economic risks. As Trump raises the stakes on Greenland, he is threatening the EU with fresh 10% tariffs that will be enacted on 1 February. And if things keep this way, he will raise them further to 25% starting 1 June. That is unless "a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland".In turn, the EU is preparing to take their previously shelved tariffs retaliation package worth €93 billion and use that to respond to Trump. Yup, tariffs war is back with a bang. ?As mentioned earlier here, Goldman Sachs estimates that the tariffs will at least apply a hit on exports of around 1% to 1.5% of euro area GDP. Most analysts are seeing it as a hit between 0.4% to 1.8% of the economy. So, just keep that number floating for a bit when taking into consideration the impact of tariffs on market sentiment.For now, equities are not liking any of it with European stock futures pointing lower across the board:Eurostoxx -1.6%Germany DAX -1.3%France CAC 40 -2.0%UK FTSE -0.5%Similarly, US futures are also down as risk sentiment in general takes a knock:S&P 500 futures -0.9%Nasdaq futures -1.2%Dow futures -0.8%As a reminder though, US markets will be closed today. So, that will spare Wall Street of any "official" pain in the meantime. The thing with geopolitical tensions is that they tend to be faded rather quickly in due time. But when it does spill over to economic conflict, that's a tougher one to filter out.We'll now have to see how serious Trump is about sticking to his tariff guns and how far is he willing to use this threat to push the Greenland agenda. And on the EU side of things, it's about how willing are they to fight tit-for-tat against the US administration on tariffs if things really do progress down this road. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.There are some large ones but nothing that should be too impactful, given how the state of play is developing in the major currencies space.The Japanese yen remains in focus amid intervention risks as traders continue to keep the pressure on the currency. Fiscal risks remain the main issue with Japan prime minister Takaichi set to officially call for a snap election in her announcement later today. She is scheduled to make an appearance at 0900 GMT and dissolve the lower house of parliament at the ordinary Diet session later this week.But with Trump stirring up geopolitical tensions in Greenland, the dollar is also under scrutiny to start the week. The greenback was up a little in the early stages but quickly settled lower. The erratic nature of the US administration continues to pile on the currency debasement theme with precious metals surging higher instead.For now, the dollar is sitting a little lower ahead of European trading with not much to really shout about in relation to the expiries above.As a reminder as well, it is a US market holiday and long weekend today. As such, there isn't much appetite on the expiries board with traders keeping more focus on the ones that will run off tomorrow and later in the week.Taking that into consideration, it might be a bit of a quieter one to start the week although the negative risk mood might well translate to some extension flows in the major currencies space later on. For now though, the Swiss franc is already taking charge with USD/CHF down 0.5% to 0.7987 and EUR/CHF down 0.3% to 0.9286 on the day.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Introduction: What Is a Broker?A broker is a person or company that helps traders and investors connect with financial markets. They make it possible for you to buy and sell things like shares, currencies, commodities, or other financial products. Brokers act as intermediaries, helping individual traders access large financial markets and liquidity providers.Today, most brokers offer:Trading platforms: Special software like MetaTrader 4 (MT4) or MetaTrader 5 (MT5) that you can use to trade.Access to markets: This includes currencies, equity indices, gold, and shares.Customer support: Help for managing your account and transactions.Research and tools: Information and tools to help you analyze the market and make decisions.Some brokers also allow you to use leverage, which means you can control larger trades with a smaller amount of money. However, leverage can increase both your potential profits and your risks.Example: If you want to buy the currency pair EUR/USD, you can’t go straight to the bank market. Instead, your financial intermediary will handle the trade for you, either by matching your order with another client (market maker) or sending it to liquidity providers (ECN/STP model).Brokers are very important for individual investors. But if you choose the wrong broker, especially one that isn’t regulated, you might face unfair practices or even lose your money.How Do Brokers Work?Brokers help you access financial markets that you can’t reach on your own. They act as intermediaries by executing buying and selling orders and offering platforms to operate on. Here’s how they operate:Trade Execution: When you place a buy or sell order on a trading platform, your broker either:Sends your order to a liquidity provider or exchange (ECN/STP model).Fills your order within their own system (market maker model).Pricing and Spreads: Brokers provide bid and ask prices. The difference between these prices is called the spread, which is part of your trading cost. Some brokers may also charge extra commissions.Leverage and Margin: Many brokers let you use leverage, which allows you to control larger trades with less of your own money. This can increase your potential profits but also your risks.Platforms and Tools: Most brokers provide trading platforms like MT4 or MT5 where you can analyze charts, place trades, and manage your accounts.Broker Revenue: Brokers make money in different ways:Spreads: The difference between the buying and selling prices.Commissions: A fixed fee per trade, which is common with ECN accounts.Additional Fees: Such as fees for overnight positions, inactivity, or withdrawals.Example: If you buy 1 lot of EUR/USD, your broker might charge a spread of 1 pip (which is about $10). For an ECN account, you might pay a raw spread of 0.1 pips plus a $7 commission.Tip for beginners: Always compare all trading costs, including spreads, commissions, and any additional fees, before choosing a broker.Types of BrokersBrokers operate differently. Understanding the types can help you find one that fits your trading style:Market Maker Brokers:How they work: They create their own market and act as the other side of your trade.Pros: They usually have fixed spreads and simpler pricing.Cons: There can be a conflict of interest since the broker profits when clients lose.ECN (Electronic Communication Network) Brokers:How they work: They connect you directly to liquidity providers like banks and funds.Pros: They offer very tight spreads and faster trade execution.Cons: They charge commissions, and spreads can widen during volatile times.STP (Straight Through Processing) Brokers:How they work: They send your orders directly to liquidity providers without any manual handling.Pros: They provide fair execution and variable spreads.Cons: Costs can vary based on market liquidity.Discount Brokers:How they work: They offer basic services with low fees but little support or research.Pros: They are cost-effective for self-directed traders.Cons: They offer limited educational resources and customer support.Full-Service Brokers:How they work: They provide personalized advice, research, and portfolio management along with trade execution.Pros: They offer comprehensive services for long-term investors.Cons: They tend to have higher fees compared to online brokers.Example: A beginner might find a market maker broker easier to use, while an experienced trader might prefer an ECN broker for better pricing and direct market access.Why Do Traders Need Brokers?Brokers are essential because they provide retail traders and investors access to markets that would otherwise be unavailable. Here’s why they are important:Market Access: Individuals cannot trade directly with large exchanges or interbank markets. Brokers connect you to these markets so you can buy and sell assets like currencies, stocks, and commodities.Trading Platforms: Brokers provide the software you need to analyze the market, execute transactions, and manage your positions in real time.Leverage and Margin: Brokers allow you to use leverage, which means you can control larger trades than what your own funds would allow. This can make market activity more flexible, but it also increases risks.Liquidity and Execution: Brokers have networks of liquidity providers that help ensure your orders are executed quickly and often at competitive prices.Risk Management Tools: Most brokers provide tools like stop-loss and take-profit orders to help you manage risk.Education and Support: Many brokers provide training, tutorials, webinars, and customer support to help beginners learn about investing.Example: Without a broker, a retail trader wouldn’t be able to buy or sell EUR/USD, gold, or the S&P 500 index. A broker makes that possible and provides the necessary tools for buying and selling safely and efficiently.Key Features of a Good BrokerChoosing the right broker is one of the most important decisions you will make as a trader. A reliable broker should offer:Regulation and Safety: The broker should be licensed by a well-known regulatory body (like FCA, ASIC, or CySEC) to ensure they follow rules and protect your funds.Transparent Pricing: You should have clear information about spreads, commissions, and fees. There should be no hidden charges.Trading Platforms: Access to trusted platforms like MT4 or MT5, which have good charting tools and execute trades smoothly.Competitive Spreads and Fees: Low transaction costs are important, especially if you engage in frequent market activity. Look for brokers with tight spreads and fair commissions.Reliable Execution: Fast order execution with minimal slippage is essential, supported by strong liquidity providers.Risk Management Tools: Features like stop-loss, take-profit, and negative balance protection are important for safeguarding your capital.Education and Research: Good brokers provide tutorials, webinars, market news, and analysis to help you improve your skills.Customer Support: Responsive support in multiple languages, available through live chat, phone, or email.Example: A good broker will let you open a demo account to try their platform and trading conditions before you put in real money.Risks of Choosing the Wrong BrokerChoosing an unregulated broker can expose you to significant risks. Here are the main dangers:Loss of Funds: Unregulated brokers might mix your deposits with their own money or disappear with your funds.Withdrawal Problems: Some dishonest brokers may delay or block your withdrawals, making it hard for you to access your profits.Price Manipulation: Untrustworthy brokers might widen spreads, create false slippage, or manipulate quotes to trigger your stop-loss orders unfairly.Hidden Fees: Brokers that lack transparency may charge high commissions, overnight fees, or other costs that aren’t clearly explained.Misleading Promotions: Promises of guaranteed profits or unrealistic leverage are often signs of unreliable brokers.No Legal Recourse: Without regulation, you have no protection if there are disputes or fraud.Example: If a trader deposits $1,000 with an unregulated offshore broker, and after making a profit the broker refuses to let them withdraw their money, the trader may lose their funds because there is no regulatory authority to help.Tip for beginners: Always verify a broker’s license with the official regulator before opening an account.How to Choose a Trustworthy Broker – Step by StepChoosing a trustworthy broker can be simple if you follow these steps:Step 1 – Check Regulation: Look for licenses from top-tier regulators (like FCA, ASIC, or CySEC). Verify the license number on the regulator’s official website.Step 2 – Compare Trading Costs: Check the spreads and commissions for major instruments like EUR/USD or gold to understand the costs associated with transactions. Consider both spread-only accounts and those with raw spreads plus commissions.Step 3 – Test the Trading Platform: Open a demo account to test order execution speed, charting tools, and the platform's reliability. Make sure it supports your trading strategy.Step 4 – Review Risk Management Features: Ensure the broker offers stop-loss and take-profit features, along with negative balance protection.Step 5 – Evaluate Customer Support: Reach out to customer support through live chat or email with questions. Reliable brokers should respond quickly and clearly.Step 6 – Check Deposit and Withdrawal Policies: Look for fast and clear payment options. Avoid brokers with high withdrawal fees or unexplained delays.Step 7 – Read Independent Reviews: Research on trusted financial websites and forums. Be cautious of overly positive reviews that seem promotional.Beginner Tip: Start with a small deposit to test the broker's execution and withdrawal process before committing larger amounts for market engagement.Quick Glossary of Broker TermsBroker: A financial intermediary that connects traders and investors to markets.Market Maker: A broker that sets its own buy and sell prices and often takes the opposite side of client trades.ECN (Electronic Communication Network): A broker model that connects traders directly to liquidity providers for transparent pricing.STP (Straight Through Processing): A broker that sends orders directly to liquidity providers without manual intervention.Spread: The difference between the buy (ask) and sell (bid) price — a key trading cost.Commission: A fee charged per trade, common with ECN accounts.Leverage: Borrowed money that allows traders to control larger positions with less of their own funds.Margin: The amount of money needed to open a leveraged position.Liquidity Provider: A bank or institution that provides buy/sell quotes to brokers.Negative Balance Protection: A broker feature that prevents traders from losing more money than they deposited.Execution Speed: How quickly a broker processes and fills orders.Broker Examples in PracticeTo better understand how brokers work, let’s look at some scenarios:Example 1: Market Maker BrokerSetup: A trader wants to buy EUR/USD.Action: The broker quotes a price of 1.1000 to sell and 1.1002 to buy. The trader buys at 1.1002.Outcome: The broker takes the opposite side of the trade. If the trader makes a profit, the broker pays out; if the trader loses, the broker profits from the spread and potentially from the loss.Lesson: Market makers are easy to use but can have conflicts of interest.Example 2: ECN BrokerSetup: A trader places a buy order for gold at $1,900.Action: The ECN broker sends the order through its network, matching it with a seller offering gold at $1,900.Outcome: The trade is executed with a raw spread of 0.2 pips plus a $7 commission.Lesson: ECN brokers provide transparency and better pricing but charge commissions.Example 3: Regulated vs. Unregulated BrokerSetup: Two traders open accounts — one with a regulated broker and another with an unregulated offshore broker.Action: Both deposit $1,000. The regulated broker executes trades fairly and allows smooth withdrawals, while the unregulated broker blocks withdrawals after profits are made.Outcome: The trader with the regulated broker withdraws safely, while the other loses their funds.Lesson: Always verify regulation before selecting a broker.Final Thoughts / Next StepsFinancial intermediaries are the crucial link between traders and financial markets. Whether you’re trading currencies, stocks, or commodities, you need a broker to help execute your trades and provide access to liquidity.However, not all financial institutions are the same. Choosing a regulated, transparent, and trustworthy service provider can significantly impact your trading experience and safety.Here’s what beginners should focus on:Always check regulation: Verify licenses with official regulators like FCA, ASIC, or CySEC.Understand costs: Compare spreads, commissions, and all fees before making a choice.Test first: Open a demo account or a small live account to check execution speed and withdrawal processes.Focus on tools and support: Choose a trading platform with a solid interface, educational resources, and responsive customer service.Avoid red flags: Stay away from firms making unrealistic promises or offering guaranteed profits.With the right broker, you can trade confidently, knowing your money is secure and your trades are executed fairly.Legal DisclaimerThis content is for educational purposes only. Nothing here is financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, derivative, or broker service. Trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always verify the licensing of your financial service provider with official regulators before opening an account.Continue Your Trading JourneyIf you’re ready to learn about another important trading topic, check out our next guide, "What Is Crypto Trading – A Beginner’s Guide," which explains how cryptocurrency trading works, the risks involved, and how to start trading digital assets safely.If you want to compare reliable options, visit our "Best Online Brokers of 2025" page for a detailed breakdown of trusted and regulated brokers.Beginner FAQWhat does a broker do in trading?A trading service connects individuals to financial markets, executes buy and sell orders, and provides platforms, tools, and customer support.Do I really need a broker to trade?Yes. Retail traders cannot directly access global exchanges or interbank markets. An intermediary makes trading possible.How does a broker make money?Brokers earn through spreads (the difference between buy and sell prices), commissions (a fee per trade), and sometimes additional charges like overnight swaps or withdrawal fees.What is a broker in forex?A forex broker provides access to the currency market, allowing traders to buy and sell currency pairs such as EUR/USD or GBP/JPY through platforms like MT4 or MT5.What is an example of a broker?Examples include well-known regulated financial institutions like IG, Saxo Bank, IC Markets, and Pepperstone, which provide access to forex, CFDs, and other markets.Why would someone use a broker?Because brokers provide market access, leverage, trading platforms, and liquidity that individuals cannot obtain directly. Without brokers, retail traders would have no way to trade currencies, stocks, or commodities.What is the difference between a broker and a dealer?A broker executes orders on behalf of clients, while a dealer trades for its own account, sometimes acting as the counterparty to client trades.Is it safe to use an online broker?Yes, if the broker is regulated by a trusted authority (FCA, ASIC, CySEC, NFA, etc.). Always verify licenses on the regulator’s official register.What are the types of brokers?The main types are market makers, ECN brokers, STP brokers, discount brokers, and full-service brokers. Each has different pricing models and services.Can I trade without a broker?Not as a retail trader. Only large institutions or professional firms can access markets directly.What should I look for in a broker?Regulation, transparent pricing, low spreads/commissions, reliable platforms, good execution speed, and responsive support.Can brokers be trusted?Yes, but only if they are properly licensed and regulated. Unregulated brokers may engage in unfair practices or scams. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The start of the 2026 has been all about US president Trump's threats and actions so far. In the first week, it was the invasion of Venezuela. Last week, it was the attack on the Fed's independence and escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran. This week, tariffs are once again back in the picture as Trump wants the EU to give up Greenland.What a time to be alive, eh?The latest tariffs threat is causing a stir in markets to start the new week now with risk trades on the backfoot. Trump is threatening 10% tariffs on "any and all goods" starting from 1 February and that will jump up to 25% on 1 June after. That unless "a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland". ?Goldman Sachs estimates that the economic hit will be on exports worth roughly 1% to 1.5% of euro area GDP. The breakdown by country can be seen below:The EU has been swift to announce retaliation, with the big one being their €93 billion tariffs package on US goods. As a reminder, this package is one that was suspended last year after both sides came to a "trade deal" over the summer. It is said that these tariffs could be put into effect on 6 February, just days after Trump's tariffs hit.For now, risk trades are taking a knock. US markets might be closed today for the long weekend but futures are pointing lower already. S&P 500 futures are down 0.8% and Nasdaq futures down 1.0%. Meanwhile, European stock futures are pointing to a gap lower by over 1% to start the week.Amid the geopolitical tensions and erratic US administrative policy, precious metals are once again catching fresh bids while the dollar is sitting lower across the board. The latter did see some slight gains early on but they have been quick to fade. Here's a snapshot of dollar pairs at the moment:As for precious metals, they opened with a gap higher to start the week with gold now up 1.7% to $4,671 and silver up 3.7% to $93.49 currently. Hot, hot, hot. ? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan household inflation expectations ease slightly but remain elevated, BOJ survey showsSummary:One-year inflation expectations ease but remain very highHouseholds expect prices to rise 11.6% on average over next yearLong-term inflation expectations remain elevatedSlight softening offers limited reassurance for BOJInflation psychology still deeply entrenchedJapanese households continue to expect prices to rise sharply over both the short and long term, even as inflation expectations edged slightly lower in the latest Bank of Japan quarterly survey, highlighting the persistence of inflation psychology despite recent moderation.The BOJ’s December survey showed that 86.0% of households expect prices to rise one year from now, down modestly from 88.0% in the previous poll. While the proportion eased, it remains historically elevated, underscoring how deeply inflation expectations have become embedded after several years of rising living costs.Households’ price forecasts remain strikingly high. Respondents expect prices to increase by an average of 11.6% over the next year, with a median expectation of 10.0%, pointing to continued anxiety around food, energy and everyday expenses. Such elevated expectations contrast sharply with official inflation measures but are closely watched by policymakers as a gauge of underlying price sentiment.Longer-term expectations also softened slightly but stayed firm. 83.0% of households expect prices to be higher five years from now, compared with 84.8% in the prior survey. On average, respondents expect prices to rise 9.8% over the next five years, while the median expectation stands at 5.0%, suggesting households see inflation moderating over time but remaining structurally higher than in the pre-pandemic era.The persistence of elevated inflation expectations is significant for the BOJ as it continues to normalise monetary policy after years of ultra-loose settings. Policymakers have repeatedly stressed the importance of stable, well-anchored inflation expectations around the 2% target, supported by sustained wage growth.With inflation having exceeded the BOJ’s target for several years, driven largely by food and import costs, households appear unconvinced that price pressures will fade quickly. That dynamic risks reinforcing wage demands and price-setting behaviour, complicating the central bank’s efforts to balance policy normalisation with economic stability. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump on Greenland, the bluster continues: says "now is the time, it will be done"South Korea banks signal modest credit easing as debt curbs persistChina factory output accelerates as retail sales and investment lag - recapChina Q4 GDP slows to three-year low despite hitting 2025 growth targetChina home prices fall again in December as property downturn persistsChina data: Q4 GDP 4.5% y/y (expected 4.4%), Dec retail sales +0.9% y/y (expected 1.2%)JPY traders heads up, Japan PM Takaichi press conference from 0900GMTChina new home price continued to drop in December 2025.Japan election raises odds of sales tax cut, bond yields jumpPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0051 (vs. estimate at 6.9689)Bitcoin has been slammed lower, back under US$93KUK house asking prices post record seasonal jump, Rightmove saysJapan data: Machine Orders for November: -11.0% m/m (vs. expected -5.1%)Gold has hit a record high after Trump's extra tariff plan announced over the weekendUS stock markets have fallen after Trump's extra tariffs announcement over the weekendReminder: US markets closed for holiday today, Martin Luther King Jr. Day January 19 2026Spain - At least 10 people died in high speed train crashEU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little lower.Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. 'Risk' lower on Trump's latest trade warinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Trump hints Hassett won't be Fed pickAt a glance:Trump threatens escalating tariffs on Europe and the UK over Greenland, triggering retaliation plansEarly FX saw USD bid, but EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD fully reversed initial lossesYen outperformed as JGB yields surged on election-linked tax cut speculationUS equity and Treasury futures gapped lower and remained under pressureChina data reinforced uneven growth, property weakness and demographic headwindsBitcoin sold off sharply amid thin and unconvincing narrativesOver the weekend Trump ‘tweeted’ his plan to impose extra tariffs, in his words: Starting on February 1st, 2026, all of the above mentioned countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland) will be charged a 10% tariff on any and all goods sent to the United States. On June 1st, 2026, the tariff will be increased to 25%. This tariff will remain in place until a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland.Europe and the UK responded with retaliatory tariff plans of their own, though both signalled a preference for negotiation first.In very early FX trade in the timezone, the USD gained ground against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD and others. JPY was the exception, strengthening against the USD following its better performance late last week.The early gap lower in EUR/USD was quickly filled. The pair rebounded sharply from below 1.1580 to highs nudging above 1.1635, with similar V-shaped moves seen in GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The yen again marched to its own beat, with USD/JPY dipping below 157.50 before rebounding above 157.90. I’ll have more to say on Japan further down.US equity index futures gapped lower on Globex and had not recovered as I post. US 10-year Treasury futures also traded lower. Gold and silver rocketed higher. JapanJapanese machinery orders fell 11% m/m in November, more than double the decline economists had expected.That data, however, was overshadowed by political developments. Japan’s looming election has sharply raised the likelihood of a temporary sales tax cut. Senior ruling party figures said scrapping the 8% food tax for two years is firmly on the table as politicians seek to cushion living costs ahead of a likely February vote.Bond markets reacted aggressively, with 10-year JGB yields hitting their highest levels since 1999 on concerns about fiscal slippage and increased issuance.Japan’s Nikkei fell for a third straight session, weighed down by the machinery orders shock, surging yields, Greenland-related geopolitical tension, and a firmer yen.ChinaChina set today’s USD/CNY fixing at 7.0051, the strongest since May 2023.December data reinforced ongoing stress in the property sector. New home prices fell again, while resale prices recorded their steepest decline in over a year. Developers remain under pressure, with debt talks and defaults continuing to surface.Growth data confirmed the imbalance. Q4 GDP slowed to 4.5% y/y, the weakest pace since the post-Covid reopening, even as full-year growth met the 5% target. Industrial output held up, but retail sales and investment disappointed, underlining weak domestic demand.CryptoBitcoin traded sharply lower. The move was blamed on a delayed US crypto bill, though that news broke mid last week. As ever, I’m more inclined to trust analysts who admit they don’t know the catalyst than those recycling thin narratives.Odds and endsETFs linked to China’s “national team” saw another day of record outflows, adding to signs authorities are trying to cap bubble risksUK productivity data showed tentative signs of improvement, based on alternative measuresIron ore fell for a fifth straight session as China confirmed a sharp drop in steel output and new African supply arrivedChina’s population continued to shrink in 2025, with births falling for a fourth consecutive year to the lowest level on record. The workforce is contracting as the population ages, intensifying long-term pressure on growth and the pension system. Despite subsidies and policy incentives, economists warn the demographic trend is unlikely to reverse. From a global perspective, India may increasingly pick up the slack. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.84%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -0.99% Shanghai Composite +0.13%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.34%Still to come:Japan PM press conference at 0900 GMT/ 0400 US Eastern timeUS holiday, markets closed Monday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The latest post from Trump on his social media app:NATO has been telling Denmark, for 20 years, that "you have to get the Russian threat away from Greenland." Unfortunately, Denmark has been unable to do anything about it. Now it is time, and it will be done!!! President Donald J. Trump The threats and bluster continue. Greenland, Denmark, the EU, indeed the rest of the world are against Trump's invasion plans.Earlier:Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. 'Risk' lower on Trump's latest trade warEU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little lower.US stock markets have fallen after Trump's extra tariffs announcement over the weekendGold has hit a record high after Trump's extra tariff plan announced over the weekendAs posted earlier, ICYMI:The European Union is moving toward an emergency leaders’ summit as U.S. President Donald Trump escalates trade pressure on European allies over Greenland, threatening a new wave of tariffs unless Washington is allowed to purchase the territory.European Council President Antonio Costa said he would convene an extraordinary EU summit in the coming days, following consultations that showed strong unity among member states in support of Denmark and Greenland. An EU official said the meeting is likely to take place in person on Thursday, January 22.In a statement, Costa said EU leaders were prepared to defend the bloc against “any form of coercion” while continuing to engage constructively with the United States. The move underlines growing concern in Brussels that the dispute risks morphing into a broader transatlantic trade confrontation.The escalation comes after Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs are framed by Washington as a response to security and strategic interests in the Arctic.Separately, an EU diplomat told Reuters that a suspended package of retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion on U.S. goods will automatically come back into force on February 6 if no agreement is reached. The measures were shelved last August for six months after Brussels and Washington struck a temporary trade deal, but that accord is now in jeopardy.The political pushback has widened beyond the EU. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Trump that imposing tariffs on allies over Greenland was “wrong,” arguing that security in the High North is a shared priority for NATO allies. Starmer held calls with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte before speaking with the U.S. president.The dispute places fresh strain on transatlantic relations, with markets now watching whether the EU summit can de-escalate the confrontation before automatic tariffs on both sides come into force in early February.The Greenland dispute injects fresh geopolitical risk into EU–U.S. relations, raising the probability of near-term tariff escalation and adding downside risk to European trade sentiment into February. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korean banks are edging toward easier credit in early 2026, but tight household debt controls keep the shift cautious.Summary:Banks’ lending sentiment turns positive for first time in a yearMortgage and corporate lending conditions ease modestlyHousehold debt controls remain firmly in placePotential support for KOSPI financials and cyclicalsWon impact likely secondary to global factorsSouth Korean banks are signalling a tentative shift toward easier lending conditions in early 2026, even as authorities continue to clamp down on household borrowing, according to a central bank survey released Monday.A quarterly survey by the Bank of Korea showed the index tracking banks’ lending attitudes rose sharply to 8 for the January–March period, from -21 in the final quarter of 2025. A positive reading indicates that more lenders plan to ease credit standards rather than tighten them, marking the first time sentiment has turned positive since early 2025.The improvement was broad-based. Banks’ appetite for home mortgage lending rebounded, with the index rising to 6 from -44, while lending sentiment toward large corporates and small- and mid-sized enterprises stood at 6 and 11, respectively. Bank officials expect housing-related loan demand to edge higher, supported by home purchases and demand for lease financing, while credit conditions for businesses remain generally accommodative despite lingering risks among smaller firms.The cautious easing comes against a backdrop of continued regulatory pressure. The government has rolled out targeted restrictions on home purchases and borrowing in the greater Seoul area as part of efforts to cool an overheated property market and contain household debt levels. Those measures are expected to limit the pace of credit expansion even as banks grow marginally more willing to lend.From a market perspective, the shift has mixed implications. A gradual easing of credit conditions could support domestic growth expectations and provide a modest tailwind for South Korean equities, particularly financials and cyclically exposed stocks within the KOSPI. Improved loan growth prospects may help stabilise bank earnings after a period of regulatory-driven caution.For the won, the impact is more nuanced. Easier domestic credit could underpin growth-sensitive sentiment, but ongoing efforts to restrain household leverage and a still-cautious policy stance from the central bank suggest limited downside pressure. Currency moves are likely to remain driven primarily by global risk appetite, U.S. rate expectations and regional capital flows rather than domestic credit dynamics alone.Overall, the survey points to a carefully calibrated shift rather than a full pivot, with policymakers and banks alike seeking to balance growth support against financial stability risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.