Just posting this data, I'll be back with more separately on this. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Nov) -6.4%expected +4.9%, prior +12.5%(MoM) (Nov) -11.0%expected -5.1%, prior 7.0%-- Private sector machinery orders (excluding ship and power equipment) A guide to business investment (capex) for the months ahead (6 to 9 months out) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold has skyrocketed to a new all time high above US$4680.The safe haven bid is in response to Trump announcing his plan for more tariffs as his dispute with the rest of the world over Greenland escalates. ICYMI:The European Union is stepping up efforts to contain a rapidly escalating trade dispute with Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose punitive tariffs on European allies unless the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland.EU diplomats said member states are now pursuing a dual-track strategy: intensifying diplomatic outreach to the U.S. while accelerating preparations for retaliation if talks fail. The issue will be a central focus at an emergency EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on Thursday.Trump announced over the weekend that tariffs of 10% would be imposed from February 1 on a group of European countries — including Denmark, France, Germany and Sweden — rising to 25% from June unless Washington’s Greenland demands are met. European officials have condemned the move as economic pressure directed at close allies.In response, Brussels is revisiting a dormant package of countermeasures targeting €93 billion of U.S. imports. The tariffs were suspended last August under a temporary trade arrangement with Washington but are scheduled to automatically take effect on February 6 unless a new agreement is reached.EU leaders are also considering whether to deploy the bloc’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, a powerful but as-yet unused tool that would allow the EU to restrict U.S. access to public procurement, investment opportunities, financial services and parts of the digital economy. While some capitals favour activating the mechanism, diplomats say consensus remains elusive, with many governments preferring conventional tariffs as an initial response.European Council President Antonio Costa said consultations showed strong alignment among member states in backing Denmark and Greenland and a willingness to push back against coercive trade actions, while keeping dialogue with Washington open.Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Europe would not yield to pressure, welcoming the unified stance from EU partners.Further discussions are expected at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where Trump is due to appear this week. While EU officials continue to stress a preference for negotiation, they warn that the tariff threat risks reigniting market volatility and destabilising transatlantic trade relations if left unresolved. GBP is higher now also. AUD, NZD same. Even the hapless yen is beating up the US dollar! Earlier:Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. 'Risk' lower on Trump's latest trade warEU calls emergency summit as Trump escalates Greenland tariff threat. Euro a little lower.US stock markets have fallen after Trump's extra tariffs announcement over the weekend This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Globex has reopened for trade for the (holiday impacted) week:ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures) gapped 0.8% lowerNQ (Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures) gapped lower by 1.1%US Fed Fund futures are up a couple of ticks As I am sure you know by know if you follow along with us here each Monday, early FX foreshadowed these moves:Monday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. 'Risk' lower on Trump's latest trade warAs background to the moves ...Summary:EU races to block Trump’s Greenland-linked tariff threat€93bn retaliatory tariff package could snap back in FebruaryEmergency EU summit set for Thursday in BrusselsAnti-Coercion Instrument debated but support remains mixedTrade dispute rattles markets, revives volatility risksThe European Union is intensifying diplomatic efforts to head off a new transatlantic trade clash after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened sweeping tariffs on European allies over Greenland, while simultaneously preparing retaliation should talks fail.In Trump's own words:Starting on February 1st, 2026, all of the above mentioned Countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland), will be charged a 10% Tariff on any and all goods sent to the United States of America. On June 1st, 2026, the Tariff will be increased to 25%. This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.EU ambassadors meeting in Brussels on Sunday broadly agreed to step up engagement with Washington ahead of an emergency leaders’ summit on Thursday, even as contingency plans for countermeasures gained momentum. Trump wanting to buy Greenland is a move European leaders have described as coercive.The immediate focus is on a suspended package of retaliatory EU tariffs worth €93 billion on U.S. goods, which could automatically come back into force on February 6. The measures were frozen last August after a temporary trade understanding with Washington, but diplomats now say that deal is at risk of unravelling.EU leaders will also debate whether to activate the bloc’s never-used Anti-Coercion Instrument, which would allow Brussels to restrict U.S. access to public procurement, investment flows, financial services or digital markets. While some capitals are pushing for a tougher stance, EU sources say support for deploying the instrument remains mixed, with many preferring tariffs as an initial response.European Council President Antonio Costa said consultations showed strong unity behind Denmark and Greenland and a shared readiness to resist economic pressure, while keeping channels for dialogue open. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Europe “will not be blackmailed,” welcoming consistent backing from EU partners.Diplomacy is expected to continue on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, where Trump is due to appear. Several EU leaders stressed that negotiations remain preferable to escalation, but warned that tariff threats risk triggering a damaging spiral for trade and markets. The dispute has already unsettled currencies, with investors bracing for renewed volatility if tensions intensify.As an aside, in energy markets, Nat Gas up almost 10% on the cold weather forecast models showing a cold snap. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US futures trade on Globex will be disrupted for the Martin Luther King Jr. hoiliday on January 19. See the (Partial) Screenshot from the CME holiday calendar. Times are Chicago time. More detail here ALL US stock exchanges, such as the NYSE and NASDAQ are closed. Bond markets will also be closed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

At least 10 people were killed and more than 25 seriously injured after two high-speed trains derailed near Córdoba, close to Adamuz, on January 18. The collision halted high-speed rail services between Madrid and Andalucía in Spain. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This snapshot is from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.The data of most note today is from China, specifically:Retail Sales for December Industrial Production for DecemberFixed Asset Investment for DecemberGross Domestic Product for Q4 2025You can see the survey 'expected' median consensus and the priors above for all of these. Preview:Q4 GDP seen at 4.5% y/y, weakest in three yearsFull-year 2025 growth likely meets ~5% target, but nominal growth lagsRetail sales and investment remain key drags on activityIndustrial production supported by resilient exportsPolicy stance cautious, with limited appetite for major stimulusChina is expected to have ended 2025 with its weakest quarterly growth in three years, highlighting an increasingly uneven recovery driven by exports rather than domestic demand as the economy heads into 2026.Data are forecast to show that while overseas demand has remained resilient, consumption and investment continue to drag on growth. Economists expect gross domestic product to have expanded 4.5% y/y in Q4, the slowest pace since the post-pandemic reopening, even as full-year growth reaches around 5%, in line with Beijing’s official target.The composition of growth remains the key concern. A historic contraction in investment and faltering household demand are expected to offset momentum from exports, which have been boosted by record shipments outside the United States despite renewed trade tensions under U.S. President Donald Trump.Retail sales growth is forecast to ease to a fresh three-year low in December, reflecting weak income growth, soft labour conditions and ongoing pressure from falling home prices. Fixed asset investment is expected to post its first annual contraction since official records began three decades ago, underscoring the depth of the property downturn and the saturation of infrastructure spending.By contrast, industrial production is likely to have accelerated in December to its fastest pace since September, supported by strong external demand. That divergence reinforces expectations that China’s two-speed growth model will persist into 2026, with exports carrying the load as domestic demand remains subdued.Deflation continues to complicate the outlook. While real GDP growth may meet the government’s target, nominal expansion is expected to be significantly weaker, weighing on corporate earnings, household wealth and fiscal revenues.Policymakers appear reluctant to respond with large-scale stimulus. President Xi Jinping has signalled greater tolerance for slower growth, while concerns around local government debt limit Beijing’s willingness to expand aggressively.China’s central bank has reinforced that message. The People’s Bank of China has leaned toward targeted easing, recently lowering the cost of structural lending tools while only cautiously flagging scope for broader rate cuts. Officials have increasingly acknowledged that monetary easing is losing effectiveness in an economy constrained by weak demand and structural imbalances.Retail sales growth is forecast to ease to a fresh three-year low in December This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland.EU to convene emergency leaders’ summit amid U.S. tariff threats over GreenlandTrump announces 10% tariffs from Feb 1, rising to 25% by June€93bn in suspended EU retaliatory tariffs to auto-trigger on Feb 6 if talks failEU leaders signal unity behind Denmark and Greenland, reject coercionUK and NATO allies warn tariffs undermine collective securityMonday open indicative forex prices, 19 Jan 2026. 'Risk' lower on Trump's latest trade warThe European Union is moving toward an emergency leaders’ summit as U.S. President Donald Trump escalates trade pressure on European allies over Greenland, threatening a new wave of tariffs unless Washington is allowed to purchase the territory.European Council President Antonio Costa said he would convene an extraordinary EU summit in the coming days, following consultations that showed strong unity among member states in support of Denmark and Greenland. An EU official said the meeting is likely to take place in person on Thursday, January 22.In a statement, Costa said EU leaders were prepared to defend the bloc against “any form of coercion” while continuing to engage constructively with the United States. The move underlines growing concern in Brussels that the dispute risks morphing into a broader transatlantic trade confrontation.The escalation comes after Trump announced that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland would face a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1, unless the U.S. is permitted to buy Greenland. The tariffs are framed by Washington as a response to security and strategic interests in the Arctic.Separately, an EU diplomat told Reuters that a suspended package of retaliatory tariffs worth €93 billion on U.S. goods will automatically come back into force on February 6 if no agreement is reached. The measures were shelved last August for six months after Brussels and Washington struck a temporary trade deal, but that accord is now in jeopardy.The political pushback has widened beyond the EU. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Trump that imposing tariffs on allies over Greenland was “wrong,” arguing that security in the High North is a shared priority for NATO allies. Starmer held calls with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte before speaking with the U.S. president.The dispute places fresh strain on transatlantic relations, with markets now watching whether the EU summit can de-escalate the confrontation before automatic tariffs on both sides come into force in early February.The Greenland dispute injects fresh geopolitical risk into EU–U.S. relations, raising the probability of near-term tariff escalation and adding downside risk to European trade sentiment into February. The euro is lower, a little, in early trade here, as is most other FX vs. the USD (see link above to early rates guide).From Trump's 'tweet' where he spat the dummy and announced more tariffs. Trump's tends to chicken out and cancel tariffs, earning him the 'TACO' nickname (Trump Always Chickens Out). It's a tedious process we have the endure until his tantrums subside. Still, it adds some tradeable volatility to markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump: I may want to keep Hassett where he isCanada strikes tariff deal with China on agriculture and electric vehiclesPowell will be tempted to stay as a Governor beyond May, former Fed vice chair saysFed's Bowman: Should be ready to cut rates again amid job market risksUS industrial production rises more than expected in DecemberTrump says he 'greatly respects' that Iran have been cancelledLithium prices go parabolic, but Scotiabank warns it's 'Too Fast, Too Furious'US NAHB January home builder sentiment index 37 vs 40 expectedIs Rick Rieder the darkhorse for the Fed job? Jefferson says he doesn't want to pre-judge Jan decisionMarkets:Gold down $32 to $4582, silver down 3%WTI crude oil down 32-cents to $59.51US 10-year yields up 6.7 bps to 4.23%JPY leads, AUD lagsS&P 500 down 0.1%It's a holiday on Monday and markets on Friday mostly traded like an extra-long weekend. Newsflow was steady with some Fed talk ahead of the midnight blackout but ultimately, the moves in the FX market were minimal to finish the day.Below the surface it was a bit more lively. The big moves on the day came after Trump said to Hassett at an event: “I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth."That led the betting market to drop the odds on Hassett down to 17%. However broader market reactions may cause Trump to pivot back to Hassett. Treasury yields rose 5-6 bps across the curve on the possibility of a less-dovish Fed chair. That long-dated yields would also rise is something of a surprise as Hassett could stoke the inflationary fires.In the same vein, the US dollar strengthened on the headlines and that runs counter to what Trump generally wants. Stock markets also dipped slightly, though not materially.The NAHB numbers highlighted a major weak spot in the US: housing. There is talk that the Trump admin will let Americans draw down 401K retirement plans to buy homes as it faces poor polling on affordability. Today's rise in long-term yields also won't help.The week ahead is a short one but will include some major economic date and we could get the Supreme Court decision on tariffs (Tuesday was announced as a decision day). Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Fed's Jefferson is out with a speech late in the day but he isn't giving much away:Some upside risks remain, but expect inflation to return to path back to 2%Inflation somewhat elevated, rise in core good prices inconsistent with return to 2% inflationCautiously optimistic for 2026, though face risks to both employment, price stability goalsPleased to see increased use of standing repo operations when economically sensibleExpect 2% economic growth in near term, unemployment rate to hold steady this yearFed rate cuts since 2024 have brought policy rate into range consistent with neutralCurrent policy stance leaves us well positioned to determine how much and when to adjust policy rateAs layoffs remain low, hiring remains lowDo not want to prejudge January rate-setting decisionIt sounds like he's inclined to cut rates later in the year. It would hardly make waves if he argued for holding on Jan 28 as that outcome is 95% priced into markets. In November, he said they should proceed slowly and then earlier this month he characterized the policy rate in a "range consistent with neutral", something he repeated today.Quotables:I am starting 2026 with a cautiously optimistic point of view. Conditions in the labor market appear to be stabilizing, and I see the economy as well positioned to continue to grow while inflation returns to a pathway toward our 2 percent objectiveMore:What is inconsistent with a return to 2 percent inflation is the rise in core good prices....y view that inflation will resume a path toward our goal is consistent with near-term measures of inflation expectations declining from their peaks last year, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. And most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The New York Times is out with an article on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell:Powell cultivated deep Congressional ties anticipating political backlash.GOP Senators Tillis and Thune publicly backed the Fed Chair, support went beyond what Powell expectedEven critic Kevin Cramer credits Powell’s relationship-building skillsTrump may rethink his nominee choice amid Senate pushbackWhen the Justice Department launched a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell on Jan. 9, the White House likely expected the Fed Chair to fold but he fought back and appears to have won. Now the question is whether he's more inclined to remain as a Fed governor for another two years after his term as Chair ends in May.The report highlights how he built ties on Capital Hill for years and that helped generate the strong response -- including from Republicans -- about potential criminal charges. Senator Thom Tillis has threatened to block any new Trump nominee, and Majority Leader John Thune is backing Powell.What happens in May? Powell’s term as Chair ends, but his term as a Governor runs for another two years. While some, like Jim Cramer, have suggested an "elegant" exit where Powell resigns to avoid indictment, Powell appears to be digging in.There was a telling comment from highly-respected former Fed vice chair Don Kohn who said:“If he thinks that his resignation as governor will endanger the institution and its independence, he’d be tempted to stay on,”.Powell is described as an institutionalist, something we've seen before. If Powell says on the board, he will continue to vote for the remainder of his term in what could be a swing vote if Trump continues to try to stack the Fed with yes-men.The report also noted that Kevin Hassett is 'a front runner' and highlights Trump's comments today about Hassett likely remaining in his job.“I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth,” he said to Hassett at an event. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices are under some pressure after Trump writes:I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (Over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Thank you!Iran is a brutal regime that's quickly sentenced people to death for protesting poor economic conditions. It's not clear if the US wants to get involved in a war though and we will be watching for signs. The consensus is that it will be much more difficult to dislodge the Iranian regime than what we saw in Venezuela.Oil prices fell earlier in the week after Trump said something similar on the scheduled executions but that's minimal comfort for the protestors who were told earlier in the week that 'help is on the way' and to keep protesting.According to the UN, Iran executed around 975 people in 2024 with the number nearly doubling in 2025. Official government statements claim there was no plan to execute protesters for protest participation alone.In terms of markets, what matters for oil is whether the bombs will be flying or not and the indication from this is that they won't be, at least not this weekend.WTI crude was last at $59.89. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Spot prices for lithium have experienced significant volatility to begin 2026, with Scotiabank analysts characterizing the recent surge as disconnected from underlying market fundamentals.Domestic Chinese lithium carbonate prices have risen 34% year-to-date, while spodumene prices have increased by 46%. The rapid rise has seen lithium carbonate move from approximately $18,000 per metric tonne to $23,000 per metric tonne in a single week. Futures markets have reacted similarly, trading at even higher premiums.Scotiabank’s analysis suggests this rally is not currently driven by end-user EV demand, but rather by regulatory changes in China. Specifically, Beijing’s decision to roll back value-added tax export rebates appears to have triggered a wave of front-loaded export demand as buyers attempt to preempt the policy move.The analysts warn that because this price action is largely reactional to policy rather than a structural shift in consumption, there is significant risk of price retracement once the immediate export activity concludes. They note that while equity markets had been pricing in lithium at $17,000 to $18,000 per tonne, the spot price has quickly outpaced these levels."once this exercise is complete, watch for retracement risk - both on the commodities and slightly less so on the equities," Scotia writes.We are seeing some of that today with lithium prices lower and equities notably lower with Albernale down 6%.Scotiabank has suggested a defensive rotation for investors looking to manage risk. While maintaining a positive long-term outlook on the sector, they recommend rotating exposure from Albemarle into Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM). The rationale is based on relative sensitivity to commodity prices; SQM is estimated to have roughly half the leverage to spot lithium price movements compared to Albemarle, potentially offering better resilience should spot prices correct as anticipated.Note that back in September during another squeeze in lithium stocks based on a potential Trump investment in a lithium stock, the same analysts warned that prices of LAC had gone way too far. They ultimately fell 50% in the following three weeks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We haven't heard much from Bowman since she was ruled out as a candidate for Fed Chair.US economy has been resilientWage growth consistent with 2% inflationFed has made considerable progress in lowering inflationUnderlying inflation levels closer to Fed's 2% targetSays she is concerned about labor market fragilityFirms may start shedding workers unless there is demand improvementExpects 'solid' growth, lower inflation and stabilizing job marketGiven risks, Fed policy should be focused on supporting job marketFed policymaking should be forward looking and driven by forecastsInflation pressures are easing as tariff influences abateMonetary policy is 'moderately restrictive' right nowRisk to Fed's mandates is asymmetric, with job risks outweighing inflation concernsU.S. central bank should stand ready to cut interest rates again given labor market risksGiven risks, Fed should not signal a pause in rate-cutting campaignI thought Bowman might pivot back to being more hawkish after losing her bid for Fed chair but she's hanging in there. The 'moderately restrictive' take is out of consensus with the vast majority of Fed members seeing policy as either within the range of neutral or close. Her view that the jobs market risks are higher is defensible as most of the employment created in the US last year as in healthcare and AI is certainly a risk to layoffs. That said, the latest economic data has been good and this week's jobless claims number was the lowest of Trump's second term. Most Fed members want to see convincing evidence that inflation is at 2% and it's just not there, with the upcomign PCE report likely at 3%. She dismisses that by shifting to 'underlying' inflation but that same underlying inflation has also been aided by a rapid decline in oil prices that might not be sustainable. As the year goes on, she will be an interesting voice to monitor because there will be votes that are close calls and she could easily shift back to being a hawk if prices pick up. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump seems to rule out Hassett as Fed chair in comments.Trump said that Hassett was good on TV today and that he "may want to keep him where he is". He added that "we'll see how it works out".Some Republican Senators have expressed reservations about Hassett because he's so close to Trump, so he could be harder to confirm than the other three candidates.We have seen some US dollar buying on this headline, as it underscores that the Fed decision is mostly about political credibility. Of the candidates, Hassett is seen as the least independent, which in turn is the most-dovish due to Trump's longstanding desire to cut rates.Along the same lines, gold is quickly lower on the headlines and has touched the lowest since Tuesday in a quick $35 decline (now a $60 decline).Hassett has been the White House spokesman on economic matters as director of the National Economic Council. He frequently appears to speak about economic policies, including tariffs. In the betting markets, Hasset is down to 17% from about 35% earlier today.The prospect of a less-dovish Fed chair is also weighing slightly on equity markets, which fixed income markets are little changed.The betting favorite for the job is Kevin Warsh, who was the runner up to Powell in Trump's first term. He's been relentlessly lobbying for the job for years after quitting the Fed as a governor in a tiff over quantitative easing during the financial crisis. Earlier today, a report highlighted that Trump's team also liked Blackrock fixed income CIO Rick Rieder in part because he had no ties to the Federal Reserve. For what it's worth, I don''t necessarily view Trump's comments as overly telling. At the same time, the sharp declines in precious metals following the comments are an indication that plenty is riding on the decision. However the rise in the dollar after the headlines could be an indication to Trump that Hassett is the right pick, as the President wants a lower dollar.Treasury Secretary Bessent said a decision will come before month end. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 39Current single-family home sales 41 vs 42 priorProspective buyers 23 vs 26 priorHome sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 52 priorIn the past month, US 30-year yields have ticked 5-7 basis points higher but there have been signs of buyers wading in via the latest existing home sales report.The latest survey also revealed that 40% of builders reported cutting prices in December, marking the second consecutive month the share has been at 40% or higher since May 2020. It was 41% in November. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in December, down from the 6% rate in November. The use of sales incentives was 67% in December, the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is a monthly economic indicator that gauges builder confidence in the U.S. single-family housing market. Based on a survey of National Association of Home Builders members, it operates on a scale of 0 to 100. A reading above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as "good" rather than "poor."The index is a weighted average of three specific components:Current Sales Conditions (59%): Builders rate current sales volume.Future Sales Expectations (14%): Outlook for sales over the next six months.Prospective Buyer Traffic (27%): The volume of potential buyers visiting model homes.Currently, the index is low because builders are caught in a "dual squeeze." On the demand side, high mortgage rates and prices have hurt affordability, forcing builders to offer costly incentives. On the supply side, they are dealing with rising construction costs, labor shortages, and regulatory hurdles, all of which keep confidence below the neutral 50 mark and near the pandemic lows. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's market shows a robust performance in the technology and semiconductor sectors, with companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) leading the gains. Nvidia soared +1.26%, while AMD saw an impressive rise of +2.16%. The semiconductor boom is further bolstered by Micron Technology (MU), climbing +6.55%.On the other side of the spectrum, the healthcare sector is showing signs of struggle, with major players like Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) dropping by -0.36% and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) declining -1.25%. This reflects ongoing market apprehensions surrounding healthcare regulations and industry pressures.Market Mood and TrendsThe current market mood is largely bullish, especially within tech-driven sectors. The positive momentum in technology and semiconductors aligns with optimistic investor sentiment regarding innovations and demand in these industries. However, the decline in healthcare stocks indicates caution among investors regarding healthcare policy changes and economic impacts.The mixed results in different sectors suggest diverse market dynamics, with investor focus shifting towards tech-centric opportunities while remaining tentative about long-term healthcare investments.Strategic RecommendationsGiven today’s market dynamics, investors might consider increasing their exposure to technology and semiconductor sectors, taking advantage of current uptrends. Stocks like Nvidia and AMD present strong potential for growth. Invest in Technology and Semiconductors: Leverage the growth potential in tech by focusing on high-performing stocks in this sector.Healthcare Caution: Investors should exercise caution in healthcare investments, keeping an eye on regulatory changes that could impact stock performance.Diversification: Maintain a diversified portfolio by balancing high-risk tech stocks with stable investments to mitigate potential downturn risks.As always, staying informed and agile allows investors to navigate the changing market landscape effectively. For continuous updates and expert insights, visit InvestingLive.com and keep abreast of market movements that could impact your investment decisions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The good news continues to roll in for the US economy as December industrial production rose 0.4%, beating the 0.1% consensus. The November reading was also boosted to +0.4% from +0.2%.With that, capacity utilization rose to 76.3% from 76.0%. Manufacturing production rose by 0.2% compared to -0.2% expected. The November manufacturing number was also boosted to +0.3% from +0.2%.Those are signs that the US industrial strategy is beginning to bear fruit but when you scale out, it's still a long way to go. Production rose at an annualized rate of just 0.7% in Q4 while capacity utilization is 3.2 percentage points below its long-term average.Breaking down the numbers, industrial production’s 0.4% December rise was primarily driven by a sharp 2.6% increase in utilities, largely influenced by a 12.0% surge in natural gas, something that's unlikely to last. Manufacturing output also rose 0.2%, supported by a 0.3%increase in nondurables—specifically food, beverage, and petroleum products. Durable manufacturing edged up 0.1 percent, with significant gains in primary metals (2.4 percent) and aerospace equipment (1.5 percent) offsetting declines in motor vehicles and wood products.Among market groups, consumer goods climbed 0.7 percent, driven by nondurables, while business equipment rose 0.8 percent due to strength in transit and industrial equipment. These gains outweighed a 0.7 percent drop in mining output, allowing the total index to finish the year 2.0 percent above 2024 levels.If you zoom out even further, US production is flat over the past 20 years, despite a huge boom in oil production. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The final candidate for Fed Chairman met with President Trump this week and maybe he still has a chance. The President is notoriously fickle and has a flair for the dramatic so maybe the final impression was the best one.Fox Business reports that the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock had one big thing going for him:"He’s the only person on the finalists list that has no previous Federal Reserve Experience. Two Senior Administration Officials tell me the people in the room for the interview viewed that as a big positive," writes Fox's Edward Lawrence.The meeting was attended by Trump, Vance, Bessent, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino.The report said Rieder talked about Fed profitability, the importance of monetary policy stability, and US debt dynamics.I would suspect Bessent is pushing for Rieder as he's undoubtedly the candidate that markets would feel most-comfortable with, alongside Waller. That said, Trump himself has repeatedly said Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are his favored candidates. Both are seen as 'yes-men' for the President who will be more-likely to lower rates, but only if they can convince the rest of the board.Rieder has long commentated on markets and has developed a strong reputation as a smart analyst and sober assessor of the economy. Early this year, he released a playbook for investing in 2026 and said the year is going to be about selectively investing, rather than the 'buy anything' market that lifts all boats.He is worried about the labor market and said:Underlying slack is moving the wrong way.Layoffs are now about "efficiency" (cost-cutting) rather than cyclical weakness.Healthcare hiring has been masking weakness everywhere else. Excluding healthcare, job growth is negative.He also forecast 2% GDP Growth largely driven by AI capex and suggested buying quality fixed income.If he were selected, I'd expect to see the long end rally but it could still be a positive for the US dollar as it removes tail risks around the loss of independence. I would also expect to see gold slump.Bessent has said the decision will come before the end of the month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Canada and China are re-setting ties after leaders Mark Carney and Xi Jinping met in Beijing.The leaders agreed to lower tariffs on each others products in a move that could boost bi-lateral trade but risks irking the United States.The main deal dealt with near-term tariff levels and saw both sides dropping tariffs: Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market, with the most-favoured-nation tariff rate of 6.1%China will lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed to a combined rate of approximately 15% from 85%Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas will not be subject to relevant anti-discrimination tariffs Canada has set a goal to increase exports to China by 50% by 2030Xi Jinping commits to visa-free travel for CanadiansCanada cites two-way opportunities batteries, solar, wind, and energy storageAs for the auto deal, here is how the Prime Minister's office framed it:This amount corresponds to volumes in the year prior to recent trade frictions on these imports (2023-2024), representing less than 3% of the Canadian market for new vehicles sold in Canada. It is expected that within three years, this agreement will drive considerable new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada with trusted partners to protect and create new auto manufacturing careers for Canadian workers, and ensure a robust build-out of Canada’s EV supply chain. With this agreement, it is also anticipated that, in five years, more than 50% of these vehicles will be affordable EVs with an import price of less than $35,000, creating new lower-cost options for Canadian consumers.There were two separate releases, the second dealt with the larger strategic picture:Carney and Xi Jinping agree to deepen strategic tiesCanada reaffirms One China policy during official visitbilateral trade roadmap signed to resolve economic issuesministerial energy dialogue launched for clean power and oilBank of Canada renews currency swap with ChinaCarney has made it a political cornerstone to diversify trade away from the United States after the US raised tariffs and talked of annexation. This is a big step in that direction but the lowered China auto tariffs -- even on a limited set of cars -- will irk the domestic auto manufacturing industry and the White House.The Canadian dollar is unmoved on this deal, which comes as a modest surprise. There has been some talk of a deal but it looked like it wasn't going to happen earlier this week. While the deal itself is good, it adds some fresh risks for the loonie if Trump throws a tantrum.USD/CAD was last flat on the day at 1.3890. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?Indian Rupee targeting new record lows as RBI's interventions continue to failNo big surprises expected from the BOJ at next week's meeting - BarclaysGold remains stuck in a tight consolidation as traders await new catalysts for next moveItaly December final CPI +1.2% vs +1.2% y/y prelimOil back in the spotlight as US-Iran showdown may not be overJapan finance minister Katayama continues with the verbal intervention on the yen currencyBOJ finally set to commence selling of its ETF holdingsWhat are the main events for today?Germany December final CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y prelimFX option expiries for 16 January 10am New York cutLive Nasdaq Technical Analysis for TodayJapanese yen remains in focus as we look towards the end of the weekUK statistics office evaluates potential delay to its overhauled jobs survey - reportIt's been a fairly slow session with very limited economic data and newsflow. There were no real highlights with just the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama continuing with verbal intervention. The JPY spiked in the Asian session as Katayama threatened joint intervention with the US. Since then, it's just been bouncing around the session highs.In the markets, the most notable mover has been crude oil. Prices have been surging throughout the session in what looks like hedging into the weekend risk. Late yesterday, we got a report from Fox News saying that US air, land and sea military assets were moving to the Middle East and added that US military transit to the Middle East is expected to take a week.Now, we might say that a lot can change in a week and that there's still time before worrying about an escalation, but you never know what might happen over the weekend with Trump. The other notable movers have been US Treasury yields as the momentum since yesterday's strong US jobless claims data persisted.In the American session, we get Canadian Housing Starts, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and the US NAHB Housing Market Index. All these indicators are rarely market-moving unless there are big deviations. We will also have some Fedspeak with Fed's Bowman and Fed's Jefferson being the main highlights, but it's unlikely they will add anything new at this point. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.