Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 19After the consecutive days of White House invitations of key leaders, Markets start to price in a much higher chance of at least a truce which could be evolving to a longer-standing peace in Eastern Europe.And the pricing in is coming for the right reasons: The White House just announced that Putin accepts to meet Zelenskyy in person. The rest will be to see when and where the meeting will take place.Some compromise will have to be found, but in any case, this is progress towards the resolution of the most deadly conflict in Europe since the World War 2 – with around 500,000 deaths.In other markets, the Spanish Government yields have been rising tremendously since 12:30 PM ET – The particular reasons why are yet to be discovered, but in the meantime, some sources indicate that it may be due to some problem with droughts and wildfires, but yields don't rise just on that. Read More: Silver (XAG) and other metals fall as Markets price-in ease in Ukraine WarCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar and related assets such as US Bonds caught a bid in today's session as the United States and Donald Trump have regained some credibility after the successful meetings with the EU leaders and Putin.This comes at the cost of Tech-related assets and Metals that had performed so well in the past few months.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 19 – Source: OANDA Labs Consistent with the mean-reversion from yearly flows seen in Markets today, the JPY is surprisingly the strongest of majors today.The US Dollar is of course a winner as profit-taking continues in other currencies. Let's see if this turns into the beginning of a new trend.You can check our latest article on the US Dollar right here.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The week really starts now in terms of Economic data after nothing new today (except for the geopolitical news).The evening session is fairly full with Japan's trade data followed by the New Zealand Rate Decision (with a cut highly expected).Tomorrow will also be packed, between the Jackson Hole Symposium starting.In terms of economic data, the overnight data begins at 2:00 A.M. with German PPI and UK Inflation.A few FED Speeches are expected towards the afternoon and the (not-too-market moving) FOMC minutes are releasing at 14:00 P.M.The Jackson Hole Symposium starts tomorrow evening but most of the action is from Thursday to Saturday!Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBPUSD is holding around the 1.3500 handle ahead of key UK inflation data due out tomorrow. Cable has traded in a 50-pip range today, between lows around the 1.3480 handle and a daily high thus far of around 1.3530.The British Pound may well be gaining support ahead of the UK CPI release tomorrow where many are expecting an uptick in inflation.UK CPI to Come in Hot? Traders are keeping an eye on UK inflation data coming out tomorrow. Even though household energy bills have dropped, July's inflation (CPI) is expected to rise slightly due to higher food prices. Service inflation might also increase a bit, partly because hotel prices went up temporarily during Oasis concerts. This makes the inflation figure harder to predict, and the Bank of England is likely to view it cautiously.Experts expect it to rise to 3.7% YoY, marking the third month in a row of increasing inflation. However, if inflation rises more than expected, it could lead to hawkish repricing of a potential rate cut in November which could provide sterling with a boost and see GBP/USD rise even further. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole to Drive the US Dollar Looking at the US Dollar, a brief rally yesterday has stalled and leaves the US Dollar index vulnerable to further downside.The FOMC meeting tomorrow is unlikely to have a massive impact on the US dollar but might give more insights into Federal Reserve policymakers thoughts heading toward the September meeting.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the Fed might cut rates by 0.5% at the next meeting. However, strong consumer spending and higher inflation pressures make most Federal Reserve members hesitant to support such a big move in September without solid evidence.Markets will wait to hear more from Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole this coming weekend. Powell has a tough decision ahead. Financial markets are fully expecting a rate cut in September. Will he challenge that expectation?The Fed prefers to stay flexible, especially with another jobs and an inflation report coming soon. But signaling flexibility now would mean guessing the data, which Powell likely wants to avoid. Plus, even if he wanted to, it might be hard to change the market's belief in a September cut.The bigger debate among investors seems to be about what happens after September.For now though, the fundamentals do support further GBP strength. A catalyst may be needed to kick the pair back into gear and time will tell if this week will deliver such an event.Technical Analysis - GBP/USD GBP/USD failed to break the swing high at 1.3584 during its v-shaped recovery from August 1 lows.Since then though the pair has edged its way lower toward the 1.3500 handle.At present the pair is looking like it may finally break below the psychological level but faces significant support to the downside not to mention the fundamental factors in play as well.The period 14-RSI is approaching the 50 level with a break or bounce of the neutral level signalling momentum and could lead to more volatility and clarity moving forward.For now the choppiness is likely to continue heading into the inflation print tomorrow. The question is will the inflation release lead to a sustained move in either direction?Immediate support rests at the 1.3378 handle before the 1.32500 handle comes into focus.A move higher from here faces resistance at 1.3584 before the 1.3680 and 1.3788 handles become areas of interest.GBP/USD Daily Chart, August 14, 2025 Source:TradingView.com Client Sentiment Data - Mixed Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Short on GBP/USD with 52% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment, however the figure shows the indecision currently in Cable. Hopefully the data this week can provide a shot in the arm for the pair.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

There is ongoing profit-taking after very decent earnings for Tech companies, but the Dow Jones is opening strong.Very extended levels for the Nasdaq that had been making consistent new all-time highs in the past few months is leading to some selling in the Index.With the Nasdaq to Dow Jones ratio (mentioned in a US Index analysis in July) hanging around 2, there is some mean reversion flows buying the Dow Jones and selling the Nasdaq in the waiting of further geopolitical and rate outlook clarity. US Indices performance, August 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Spot how the Nasdaq opened lower while the Dow is up. This rebalancing is still running. Read More: The US Dollar (DXY) pauses at 98.00 as markets await clarity – What's next?A look at the Dow Jones to Nasdaq ratio Dow Jones vs Nasdaq, August 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The pace at which the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow has made some form of acceleration in the past few weeks but now, the ratio has formed a bottom.Let's see if this turns out to be a bigger trend or just a profit-taking phenomenon.I invite you to take a look at the piece I wrote on this in early July. The ratio kept on decreasing since but markets rarely just revert and usually show some form of deceleration before like we are seeing on the chart.Dow Jones Technical AnalysisDow Jones Daily Chart Dow Jones Daily Chart, August 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow reached a new all-time high on Friday at 45,283 (on its CFD, actual index at 45,203) before the usual week-end risk flows slowed the buying down.The Price action is still choppy on the daily timeframe, however attaining a new record at this point could be the start of a renewed uptrend as the balance is tilting upwardsLet's have a closer look to see what are the technicals for potential new all-time highs.Dow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, August 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The ongoing buying is very strong, particularly compared to the strong selling in the Nasdaq (you can access our most recent analysis on the tech-focused index right here)Some small selling is happening at the 45,200 handle but looking at the present course of action, only a major headline will prevent reaching the most recent ATH today.The rest will be to see if buyers are strong enough to breach decisively the level or not.Levels to place on your Dow Charts:Resistance LevelsSupport LevelsSafe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The morning NA session follows a quasi-dead European overnight trading. This tends to happen when a lack of data adds to the Summer trading when volumes are typically subdued.The Dollar Index had been in the middle of many headwinds, as per usual. After a stellar July followed by and N-shaped (for nope) downward spiral in the beginning of August, it has been difficult to spot where the Greenback is heading.Forex volatility tends to calm during summers and lack of decisive trends exacerbate this rangebound trading – When the path is unclear, rangebound trading is typical (particularly in currencies.)With Markets awaiting more developments after the White House gathered heads from Russia, Ukraine and the EU, the Dollar is forming a temporary bottom around the 98.00 Handle.This region had already formed the post-Liberation day bottom (quickly broken in May). The White House meetings went well and the US will now attempt to create a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting.Donald Trump, the author of the Art of the Deal, is an unpredictable leader but one sure thing, he is a monster negotiator, and this is giving back some confidence in the US.In our most recent DXY analysis, we mentioned an expectation of a more balanced Dollar as a lack of continuation upwards and a not-broken bottom show indecision.Let's see if this indecision shall continue, at least to the technical side. Read More: Russia-Ukraine Talks, Nikkei Retreats, FTSE 100 Eyes Gains. Canadian Inflation AheadDollar Index (DXY) Technical AnalysisDollar Index Daily Chart Dollar Index Daily Chart, August 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is holding its low-sloped ascending channel in a 5 day consolidation around the 98.00 handle.The post-CPI data had created a new offer for the US Dollar as Markets rushed to price the September cut to 97% before the surprising PPI data changed the course of action. With the future US inflation expectations rising considerably, the fundamental background for the Dollar (like its rate outlook) is more uncertain. The Daily RSI is way into the Neutral territory and the Daily doji is an indecision one. All of this is also happening right around the 50-Day MA (currently at 98.065).Let's have a closer look to spot what breakout points could be in play when the action picks up again.Dollar Index 2H Chart Such indecisive price action doesn’t warrant analysis across many timeframes – it is better in this environment to look at where we see the most. Dollar Index 2H Chart, August 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index is stuck between the 97.60 Support and the 98.50 Resistance Zones.With the Price action rebounding from the lows of the Daily upward Channel supplemented by the 2H MA 50 acting as support, it seems that the preferred path would be to the upside.If things were so sure however, the Dollar would have risen already to test the following resistance zone.Typically, in this environment, it is good to look at the highs (98.30) and lows of the session (97.94) to see where if the action breaks out from there.To the upside, look at the 2H MA 200 currently at 98.515.To the downside, look at the 97.60 Support Zone, then the 97.15 July upward pivot.Levels to place on your DXY Charts: Resistance Levels98.50 Pivot Zone now resistance (confluence with 2H MA 200)Resistance 99.20 to 99.40Main 100.00 to 100.50 ResistanceSupport Levels2H MA 50 (97.94)97.60 SupportJuly Pivot before run-higher 97.15Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The ongoing war in Russia has counterintuitively been one of the most significant bearish catalysts in the black gold– Russia floods the market of Oil to countries like India to sponsor its war, prompting threats from Trump.

The war may continue despite the Trump-Putin meeting, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announcing that it would be "impossible" to concede land, mentioning Crimea.As a matter of fact, Ukraine landed hits on one of the key pipelines taking Russian Oil to Hungary, leaving the Hungarian PM Orbán in fury (He is one of the only pro-Russian leaders in Europe).In the Middle East, on the other hand, Hamas is getting cornered into a ceasefire deal as it fears pressure from Israel to retake complete control of Gaza. 

We are expecting more headlines on these developments.

If Iran, which is also selling lots of Oil to sponsor its proxies like Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, were to reduce supply.

Let’s have a look at US Oil to spot why these factors coincide with a potential short or long-term bottom in the energy commodity. Read More: Nasdaq and tech sector open the week on cautious footingUS Oil technical analysisUS Oil 8H Chart US Oil 8H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking out to the 8H chart looks at the most recent move down that is finding support at the $62.20 level after forming a double bottom.The 8H RSI is also forming a bullish divergence as prices are now rallying. Let's have a closer look.US Oil 4H Chart US Oil 4H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer shows more detail of the ongoing breakout in WTI. The most recent up-move is finding some form of resistance at the 50-period MA but bulls have pushed outside of the downwards hourly channel. You can also look at the 4H RSI confirming the bullish divergence.Bulls are looking to break $64.70 to re-enter the prior month range, point after which the bearish momentum will be absent.Levels to place on your charts for US Oil trading:Resistance Levels63.84 imminent resistance/pivot (break above = more bullish) at the 4H 50 MA.$66 to $67 Mid-range levelhigh range resistance $67.30 to $68 – Confluence with 50 and 200 Day MAsSupport Levels$62.00 to $63 May Range highs supportWednesday lows $62.19 (current double bottom)$60.5 Low of May Range$55 to $57 2025 lows Main supportUS Oil 1H Chart US Oil 1H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Since the beginning of the morning session, bears have given up the short-term momentum.Prices are trying to push within the $64 resistance zone, acting as immediate pivot.It will be essential to see how markets react around that zone as it also was a point of breakout during the Israel-Iran tensions. Furthermore, the 200-Hour MA is acting as resistance there, if broken, there won't be much acting as resistance before the middle of the prior month range. ($66 to $67).Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Hovers at $3350/oz, Russia-Ukraine Developments in FocusUSD/CAD advances in the US session, trading above the 100-day MA as the potential for further gains grows. There are of course headwinds for the pair which could scupper a move higher in the coming days.Geopolitical Risk The important meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended on Friday without any major progress. However, Trump said on Monday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could end the war with Russia quickly if he chooses to. Trump, Zelenskiy, and key European leaders are set to meet later today to discuss ending Europe’s deadliest war in 80 years.The move has kept Oil prices on edge of late with WTI trickling lower over the past few trading sessions. Weaker WTI oil prices have weighed on the Canadian Dollar and could aid a move higher for the pair if the decline continues.Bearish FED Outlook Gathers Pace Confidence that the Federal Reserve is ready to cut two or three times this year sees investors happy to remain long risk assets. The increasing probability of rate cuts will also weigh on the US Dollar but for now it appears the Canadian Dollars weakness is overshadowing the US Dollar weakness. This sets the pair up for further gains.Wednesday sees the release of the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, where two dissented for a 25bp rate cut. Of greater interest, however, will be Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday afternoon.The Jackson Hole meeting could set the tone for the US Dollar moving forward.Data Ahead Which Could Affect USD/CAD The week ahead brings data from both the US and Canada. The FOMC minutes and the S&P PMI data will be released from the US which could stoke some volatility in the pair.Tuesday will bring Canadian inflation data which is cooler but not quite where the Bank of Canada would like it to be.Canada’s central bank is unlikely to speed up rate cuts as its preferred inflation measure stayed high at 3% in June. The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate to 2.75% in July but plans to move cautiously due to stubbornly high service prices, tariffs, and weakening demand.This makes the CPI release tomorrow all the more interesting. A drop in inflation could aid USD/CADs move to the upside and facilitate a test of the 200-day MA. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - USD/CAD From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD is back above the 100-day MA but continues to grind higher.The varying risks for the pair is currently keeping any significant moves at bay but there is a growing probability that further upside may materializeThe pair is still showing a bullish trend after pulling back and holding support at a previous resistance level.Looking at the RSI and it is currently hovering around the 60 mark. This is another sign that bullish momentum remains intact.Immediate resistance rests at 1.3860 before the 1.4000 and 200-day MA at 1.4035 comes into focus.A move lower from here may find support at 1.3747 before the most recent swing low at 1.3588 comes into focus.USD/CAD Daily Chart, August 18, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Short on USD/CAD with 64% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-short suggests that USD/CAD prices could continue to rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Nasdaq and the broader tech sector are starting the week more cautiously, with overnight futures showing the Dow holding up relatively well against the more risk-sensitive Nasdaq.(An informal invitation to consult our most recent analysis on the Dow)After weeks of steady outperformance from tech compared to other sectors, the latest dip could be simple profit-taking—but in the bigger picture, it looks like flows are shifting as the appetite for risk begins to cool.Markets are still waiting to learn more from the post Trump-Putin meeting developments, with EU leaders showing up to the White House today to discuss on the future path of action for the Ukraine-Russia ongoing war.Participants will look to learn more on this before showing more appetite to risk. There is also key data appearing this week with PMIs from all around the globe.Earnings season adds another layer of focus, with consumer giants like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot reporting this week and offering a read on household demand.Meanwhile, the most recent PPI data has already begun to weigh on sentiment.Let’s look at the charts to see if this cautious tone starts building into something larger. Read More: Cryptocurrencies extend their decline from recent highsNasdaq Daily Chart Nasdaq Daily Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq is showing consecutive doji candles at the higher bound of the May upwards Channel.Bulls will have to be cautious particularly as a Daily Bearish divergence on the RSI is showing up after months of relentless rallying.With momentum and sentiment appearing to shift, it will be essential to approach markets with a bit more caution, particularly with the PPI showing tariff-led inflation making its way to the US.The September rate cut is still not out of the picture and a new ATH has just been formed, showing that markets are still far from bearish.Nasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Momentum is still around neutral and the 4H MA 50 is showing as immediate support (23,650).Keeping this one in check is essential for bull/bear momentum analysis as we are nearing the mid-line of the longer-trend upward channel.Any bearish continuation may point towards the 4H MA 200 which coincides with the lower bound of the channel (around 23,200).Levels to watch for the Nasdaq: Resistance LevelsTop of Ascending Channel and Daily resistance 24,000 to 24,100Daily highs and ATH 23,986Friday highs 23,880Support Levels23,700 current Pivot Zone at the NFP highs (confluence with 1H and 4H MA 50)23,500 Support23,150 Main Support ZoneSafe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

There were a few signals traders could have spotted ahead of the ongoing selloff.After last Friday's warning from Bitcoin, with an all-time high leading to a direct retracement, the crypto market has started to make its way off its most recent highs. Ethereum staged a huge rally toward its record levels, but buyers failed to break through the $4,870 all-time high—a sign of hesitancy from the market that sellers enjoy. Altcoins were also a bit timid on the last leg of the rally showing some lack of depth in buying.And with cryptocurrencies still firmly in the risk-asset camp, renewed geopolitical headwinds (including uncertainty with the Russia-Ukraine war) are giving investors further reasons to cash out from the rallies.Let's see through BTC and ETH intraday charts if this should keep on going or if this is just a small retracement in the longer-term trend. A follow-up from our most recent crypto piece: Imminent profit-taking in Cryptocurrencies – What's the story Read More: Gold (XAU/USD) Hovers at $3350/oz, Russia-Ukraine Developments in FocusBitcoin 8H Chart Bitcoin 8H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is $9,000 (7.20%) from its most recent ATH at $124,269, with the shape of the most recent highs appearing as a double top.Despite this warning sign, the ongoing 8H candle is showing a doji-indecision as shorter timeframes enter oversold territory.The current candle appears as dip buyers try to re-enter at the upward trendline that has served as support since the end of April.Prices are located right between the 50 and 200-period MAs – showing that the action is much less balanced than the previous uptrend.Levels to watch for Bitcoin trading:Levels for BTC trading:Support Levels:$114,500 to $115,500 rebound at the current supporting trendline$110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone (MA 200 at $111,350)$100,000 Main support at psychological levelResistance Levels:$116,000 to $117,000 Pivot50-period MA $117,330Major Resistance $122,000 to $124,500Current all-time high $124,596Ethereum 8H Chart Ethereum 8H Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum's outlook doesn't look as bleak, with the ongoing retracement hanging around the $4,200 to $4,300 consolidation zone (yellow box).With prices evolving in a current upward channel, sellers seem to have appeared at the higher bound just before the $4,870 2021 record. Buyers took the current rally to $4,790. As mentioned in the intro, a failure to breach the past highs is interpreted by sellers as lack of persistence from ETH bulls.Nonetheless, after reaching ultra-overbought levels, such retracements are healthy.Probability of a higher rebound from here are still decent as long as prices hold above the $4,000 pivot, and even higher probability if buyers take the short-term hand here.Levels for ETH trading:Support Levels:$3,500 Support zone$4,000 Main pivot (confluence with 50-period MA)$4,200 to $4,300 consolidation zone (currently testing)Resistance Levels:Current highs $4,793$4,700 to $4,900 All-time high resistance zone$4,870 2021 recordPotential resistance at 1.618% Fibonacci extension of April to July up-moveA look at the crypto Market Cap Total Market Cap Weekly Chart, August 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Total Crypto Market Cap is testing the 2024 highs.As long as profit-taking doesn't go below 3.50T, we can assume that this is just some healthy retracement instead of the beginning of a bear trend.Altcoins are retracing a bit more strongly, but this is common as they are the most risky of the already-risky crypto asset class.We will stay in touch frequently to see how this story develops.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices have rallied from an overnight low around the $3323/oz handle to a high of $3360/oz before settling around the $3350/oz mark.The precious metal looks set to continue its choppy price action at the start of a busy week.The recovery in Gold from the overnight low could in part be down to lower US Treasury Yields with the benchmark 10Y US Treasury yield falling from its recent highs.Russia-Ukraine Developments as Trump and Zelensky Set to Meet European leaders will meet with Zelenskiy and Trump on Monday to discuss a possible deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.Under the proposed plan, Russia would give up small areas of occupied Ukraine, while Ukraine would give up parts of its eastern region that Russia has been unable to take. These ideas were reportedly discussed by Putin and Trump during their summit in Alaska on Friday.The question moving forward will be whether a peace deal will have a significant impact on Gold prices. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been running for the better part of three and a half years. It will be interesting to see how much risk premium has been priced into gold as a result and if there will be a significant selloff if a deal is struck.Either way, this is worth monitoring.US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook The US Dollar Index was higher this morning ahead of what is shaping up to be a busy week. Geopolitical developments, Fed Speak and Jackson Hole are all in focus.The DXY continues to trade at a key confluence level as rate cut bets from the US Federal Reserve continue to change.Money markets now see an 83% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by a quarter point next month. However, traders have become less certain about a rate cut after recent data showed higher U.S. wholesale prices and strong retail sales in July.Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak about the economy and the Fed's plans at the Jackson Hole symposium from August 21 to 23.MUFG Bank predicts the Fed will cut rates in September but doesn’t expect Powell to clearly signal this during his speech. This will be Powell's last address at the conference before his term ends next May, as he balances the Fed's goals of keeping prices stable and unemployment low.A pivotal week for the greenback and one which could have implications for Gold prices as well.US Dollar Index (DXY) Source: Tradingview Gold Prices Moving Forward Gold prices continue to hold firm for now with downside potential limited thanks to a host of uncertainties still prevalent in global markets.Safe haven demand remains in play and this could in part explain Gold's resilience.The performance of Gold moving forward hinges on potential changes in rate cut bets as well as geopolitical developments.There is another concern for Gold prices. Given the rally over the last 18 months, Gold's value could lead to a pivot or rotation toward other commodities which continue to play catch-up to gold.So while we could still see some upside in gold, I’d say the bigger opportunity is elsewhere in commodities at this stage of the monetary-macro-metal cycle.Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, on the two-hour chart below we can see that Gold has rejected of the 50-day MA.Price is however trading just above a key area of support as market participants seek clarity.The RSI Period-14 remains above the 50 neutral level which is also a sign of bullish momentum.Either way Golds next move will need a catalyst in either direction for a potential breakout.Immediate support rests at 3331 before the 3314 and 3300 handle came into foucs.A move higher first need acceptance above the 50-day MA before the 3361 and 3375 handles come into focus.Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, August 18, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 67% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 15Today, US data showed some resilience yet again with the Retail sales coming as expected at 0.5%, with Markets selling the USD in the period that followed.The current session has been a weird one, with almost everything linked to the US going down: Bonds, Cryptos, Equities, even US Oil have went down (except for Yields, logically) – This gives Stagflation impressions.This comes as Markets were preparing for the currently ongoing Trump-Putin Meeting that doesn't seem to be going terribly – Trump mentioned he would step out of the meeting if he deemed it was not going well, thing he hasn't done just yet.Putin got his pill of free press with chaotic questions leading to chaotic answers – it would be a lie to say that this is surprising.Stay connected for the headlines on the Trump-Putin Meeting, most easily accessible sources would be on X (not always accurate however–watch out for fake news)For the rest, the University of Michigan inflation expectations have risen quite strongly amid the imposition of tariffs that are starting to have their impact. It will be key to look at how FED speakers react to that, and the answer might not be the one that supports Trump's plead for lower rates. There will be a few important ones speaking next week, and with the Jackson Hole Symposium, there's a lot of cvoncurrent headwinds for volatility.(I invite you all to get prepared for the upcoming week with out Markets Weekly Outlook!) Read More: Markets Weekly Outlook – Jackson Hole, NZ Rate Decisions and UK/EU Inflation dataCross-Asset Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView With almost every commonly traded assets down in the past 24 hours, it would be nice to see where the money is acutally going.Only Coffee, a less commonly traded commodity has been having quite a decent run.A big move could be in preparation.Also watch for the ongoing flows of Equities, Bonds and USD selling at the same time – This is a stagflation trade, and everyone hopes it doesn't become a trend.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 15 – Source: OANDA Labs It was not the most market-moving day in Forex, however the Euro and the Yen are two strong performers.It seems that markets are pricing in an easier path ahead for the war in Ukraine, but much has still to be done.The USD and CAD are the two losers of the session, yet again.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Monday will be empty of much economic data, be there might still be some geopolitcial news to chew on – Particularly with the Trump-Putin Meeting.Remember that volatility is a self-defeating prophecy! (It is when you expect it the least that it makes the most damage!)Safe Trades and an enjoyable weekend! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After an already volatile trading week, next week will see a crossroad of data and geopolitical catalysts that may move currency, equity and crypto Markets.Before looking at those, let's have a look at what happened this week.Week in review: US mixed inflation data sending warning signs, RBA rate cut and Trump-Putin meeting The US path to a much anticipated rate cut was well-drawn, particularly after Tuesday's CPI report coming along the FED's inflation target (2.5% y/y on the headline, 2.7% on the Core.)However, Thursday's PPI data changed the narrative quite a lot.Coming in at 0.9% vs 0.2% expected (and bringing the y/y Core to 3.7%!), Markets caught a bad surprise: Tariff-led inflation is making its way to the US Data.With a mix of downward revised NFP data and a not-so-clear US inflation outlook, the September rate cut isn't going to be such a given.There will still be one more NFP report and CPI report before the 17th of September Meeting happens.In the meantime, risk-assets and sentiment have taken a hit from the tariff fears: Cryptos have taken a tough hit and US Indices are a bit more indecisive, yet still holding close to their recent highs.Weekly Performance from different Asset classes Weekly Asset Performance, look at how the US data changed the flows twice with commodities being the weekly losers – Source: TradingView The Trump–Putin meeting should also be making headlines very soon, with the two presidents starting discussions in the afternoon. The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expects a long meeting, saying that "In general, we can imagine that it will take at least 6-7 hours".Access our WTI Oil analysis as some heightened volatility can be expected there in the afternoon, with volatility in the commodity possibly also spilling on Monday.Elsewhere, Markets saw the Royal Bank of Australia cutting rates to 3.60% on mixed signals for the future RBA outlook.You can access our latest AUDUSD analysis right here. Read More: Dow Jones (DJIA) Retreats from Fresh All-Time Highs. A Pause Before the Next Leg Higher? Read More: Imminent profit-taking in Cryptocurrencies – What's the storyThe Week Ahead – Jackson Hole Symposium and a lot more One of the key events concerning all types of Markets is the yearly Jackson Hole Symposium. A roadmap for the event just got published.For those who don't know, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is an annual gathering hosted by the Kansas City Fed, bringing together central bankers, policymakers, academics, and market participants to discuss key economic issues. While the topics vary each year, it’s closely watched for views from Central Banks on the future outlook with the Tariff concerns and global growth.One of the most memorable market-shaking moments from the yearly conference came in 2010, when then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke used his Jackson Hole speech to signal a second round of quantitative easing (QE2). The hint sent risk assets surging and Treasury yields lower, cementing Jackson Hole’s reputation as a stage for major policy signals.Asia Pacific Markets - Royal Bank of New Zealand rate decision Asian-Pacific Markets will not get too much in terms of key data, with the main event happening in New Zealand.The RBNZ is widely expected to cut their rates to 3% from 3.25% – Keep an eye on our upcoming RBNZ meeting preview coming up on Monday.|The rate decision is happening on Tuesday at 22:00 ET.For the rest, mid-tier data releases include Japan and New Zealand's trade balance, the Japanese national CPI data and Australian PMIs.Markets are also awaiting for the PBoC Rate decision, just before the RBNZ meeting. The Chinese economy has been stagnant for a while now except for the stimulus offered by the Central Bank. Economists are waiting to see if there is more stimulus to come to boost notably APAC currencies (like AUD and NZD) and commodities' growth outlook.US, Europe and UK Markets - PMI data, Canadian inflation and Eurozone & UK PPI releases The week really starts on Tuesday with the Canadian inflation forecasted at 2% – We will see if the Loonie gets enough of a push to strengthen after a rough past week.The CAD has been getting dragged around by US Dollar flows, with the USDCAD stuck in a consolidation.Markets will also see if the UK inflation gets a boost which may confirm further the doubts of prolonged rate cuts from the Bank of England – The BoE conference on Thursday 7th of August had almost failed to deliver a cut.In Europe, both the UK and Germany will release their PPI data on Wednesday where we will see how producer prices moved on the other side of the Atlantic. They might be movers for European currencies after this week's market shaking US PPI.The US doesn't have many economic releases per-se, but will still see a few events including the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday (14:00) and many key speeches from a divided Federal Reserve, including Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole scheduled at 10:00 A.M. on Friday.Of course, don't forget to check all the different PMI releases expected from the Eurozone, the UK and finally the US (Thursday 9:45 for US global services PMI). For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EUR/CHF continues to lag its major peer, EUR/USD. Since the May 2025 low, EUR/USD has surged 5.6%, while EUR/CHF has barely budged, posting just a 1.2% gain, highlighting the cross’s relative weakness in recent months.Interestingly, several technical elements are now flashing signs of a potential medium-term (1to 3 weeks) bullish movement for the EUR/CHF as a catch-up tactical play.Let’s dive deeper into it from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 1: EUR/CHF major & medium-term trends as of 15 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: Long-term secular trends of EUR/CHF & ratio of Euro Stoxx 50 ETF/MSCI All Country World Index ETF as of 14 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) Bullish bias above 0.9360 key medium-term pivotal support (also the intersection points of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages), and clearance above 0.9445 sees the next medium-term resistance coming in at 0.9640 (neckline of the “Double Bottom”) in the first step (see Fig. 1).Key elements EUR/CHF has regained upward traction, trading above its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages following a -4.5% corrective decline from the 13 May 2025 high to the 11 April 2024 low. Technical structure indicates the cross may be progressing into the second upleg of a broader bullish bottoming formation that has been evolving since 3 August 2024 (see Fig.1).The daily RSI momentum indicator of the EUR/CHF remains in a medium-term bullish zone, holding above the 50 level while staying clear of overbought territory (above 70).The long-term secular trend of the EUR/CHF has a direct correlation with the ratio (relative strength) chart of the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 over the iShares MSCI All Country World Index. The ratio chart has staged a major bullish breakout in April 2025, exiting its long-term secular bearish trend in place since April 2014 (see Fig. 2).This observation suggests that a major European stock market's outperformance (represented by the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50) against the rest of the world's stock markets is taking shape and may trigger a potentially significant bullish movement in the EUR/CHF cross pair.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks) Failure to hold at the 0.9360 support negates the bullish tone for a slide to expose 0.9300 and even the major support of 0.9230/9210. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Japan, China Data, Stocks Steady Most Read: Ripple (XRP/USD) Falls 6% on Manipulation Fears, Liquidations Surge. Will the $3.00 Support Hold?Hong Kong stocks fell 1.2% after data showed China’s economy slowed in July, with weak factory activity and retail sales. This suggests Donald Trump’s trade war is affecting the world’s second-largest economy. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks rose 1% as the country’s economy grew faster than expected last quarter.MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index (outside Japan) dropped 0.2%. Japan's Nikkei 225 bounced back 1.6%, nearing a record high after a big drop on Thursday, which ended its six-day winning streak. Australian stocks rose 0.7%, while Hong Kong stocks fell 1.1%.China's CSI 300 index went up 0.8% after weaker-than-expected July economic data, like retail sales and industrial production, raised hopes for new government stimulus. Markets in India and South Korea are closed for holidays.Earlier, hopes for US monetary easing had boosted market confidence, with traders expecting a quarter-point rate cut. However, US wholesale inflation rose in July at its fastest pace in three years, causing traders to lower the chances of a September rate cut to 90%, down from being fully certain before.For more on the Hang Seng Index, read Hang Seng Index Technical: End of minor corrective decline, start of new bullish impulsive up moveJapan GDP Posts Upside Surprise Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, with GDP rising 1.0% annually, marking five straight quarters of growth. This was supported by strong exports and capital spending, despite US tariffs. The growth beat market expectations of 0.4% and followed a revised 0.6% rise in the previous quarter. Source: LSEG However, analysts warn that US tariffs and global uncertainties could hurt Japan's economy in the coming months, especially for automakers trying to keep prices low for US customers.China Data Disappoints as Factory Output and Retail Sales Slump China's factory output growth hit an eight-month low in July, and retail sales slowed sharply, increasing pressure on policymakers to boost the $19 trillion economy with more stimulus.Challenges include US trade policies, extreme weather, tough domestic competition, and a weak property sector. Industrial output grew 5.7% in July, down from 6.8% in June and below the 5.9% forecast. Retail sales rose 3.7%, the slowest since December 2024, missing the expected 4.6% increase. Source: LSEG European Open - European Indexes Higher Ahead Trump-Putin Meeting Heading into the European Open, Pan-region futures rose 0.5%, German DAX futures increased 0.5%, and FTSE futures also gained 0.5%.Investors are keeping a close eye on US President Donald Trump's meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin on Friday, aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.There’s concern about how long any agreement might last, and European leaders worry the US and Russia could make big decisions that leave them out or pressure Ukraine into a bad deal.If the Trump-Putin Alaska summit gets positive feedback, European stocks are likely to see a boost. The details matter, and Europe is unlikely to fully welcome Russia, even if peace is restored. This means defense stocks might slow down their steady rise but won’t face major setbacks.On the FX front, The euro and British pound stayed mostly unchanged after dropping 0.5% and 0.3% in the previous session, ahead of US retail sales data.The Japanese yen strengthened thanks to surprisingly strong economic growth, with exports holding up well against new US tariffs.The Australian dollar remained steady, while the Chinese yuan fell from a two-week high due to weaker-than-expected economic data.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs For more on Gold, please read Gold's (XAU/USD) Recovers to $3350/oz After Mixed CPI Reaction. What Next?Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, a busy day lies ahead.Geopolitics will be in the news as the Trump-Putin meeting gets underway while we also have the Jackson Hole Symposium where all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.From a data perspective, the US session brings retail sales numbers will give a glimpse to consumer demand but the bigger one could be the Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.It will be interesting to see where survey respondents see inflation expectations over the 12 months in particular. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has continued to advance following yesterdays breakout.For a more in-depth look at the technical analysis picture, please read DAX 30 Technical Outlook: Breakout Has 400 Point PotentialDAX Index Two-Hour Chart, August 15. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Imminent profit-taking in Cryptocurrencies – What's the storyRipple (XRP) is experiencing a lot of price swings on Thursday, affecting many major cryptocurrencies. Ripple has fallen as much as 6% as a host of factors plague the popular token.A stronger US Dollar did little to help the cause as markets priced in les aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The move affected overall market sentiment and cryptos were no exception.However, XRP/USD is battling its own demons as news started circulating the web today around possible manipulation of the price. This added another layer of intrigue to Ripple which has been the talk of the town for the majority of 2025.Liquidations Surge CoinGlass data shows that $59.3 million was lost in the last 24 hours, with long position traders taking the biggest hit. Around $54.7 million in long positions were liquidated, compared to just $4.6 million in short positions.Could the rise in liquidations lead to a potential short squeeze? Either way a critical time ahead for XRP. Source: CoinGlass Validator Alleges Wash Trading Patterns On The XRP Ledger A validator on the XRPL network, called Grapedrop or Grape, has shared data claiming to show trading activity that could manipulate XRP's price. The data, shared on the social platform X, includes screenshots from the XRPL Console and examples of live transactions. It highlights unusually large and repeated transfers between exchange addresses, which the validator says leave a clear on-ledger trail.These payments often involve wallets controlled by exchanges, but the amount and frequency are much higher than regular retail activity. Screenshots show large, repeated transfers to and from these exchanges.For example, the Console data shows transactions of 3,018,977.72 XRP, 460,119 XRP, and 146,757.57 XRP, all moving between Binance-controlled wallets. This looks more like a planned pattern than normal trading by regular users.Grape explained that XRP's price is often based on volume-weighted averages. Moving large amounts repeatedly between exchanges can increase the volume numbers and affect how the market cap is calculated.This practice, called wash trading, is used to fake demand, tricking people or automated bots into buying the cryptocurrency.Grapedrop’s findings certainly raise concern, but they stop short of actually proving price manipulation. However, the significant drop in price today hints that market participants may be concerned about the findings.Open Interest Surges… Is a Major Move Coming? XRP's open interest has jumped past $3 billion after months of low activity. This is one of the highest levels in recent months, showing that traders are returning with leveraged bets.A rise in open interest means more traders are joining the market. It shows more activity and interest in the asset. This could mean more people are trading, there’s better liquidity, or there’s more speculation about price changes. Source: Cryptoquant The question is whether XRP/USD is attracting buying or selling interest and whether prices will bounce or continue the selloff.Let us see if the technicals can give us any other clues.Technical Analysis - XRP/USD From a technical standpoint, it looks like XRP/USD has just completed a lower high on the daily timeframe.This would hint that a lower low is on its way. The challenge lies in the key confluence level around the $3.00 mark.We have the ascending trendline and psychological $3.00 mark which should provide ample support.However, the size of the daily candle closed yesterday which was a bearish engulfing candle, hints at the potential for further downside. This coupled with the RSI period-14 crossing below the 50 level, a move which suggests shifting momentum.This leaves a critical day or two ahead for XRP prices as a break of the trendline and candle close below the $3.00 mark could lead to a decline toward the $2.40 breakout level in the coming days/weeks.Immediate support rests at $3.00 before the swing low from early August around the $2.75 mark comes into focus. A break of this level could lead to the $2.40 handle and beyond.On the upside, the $3.30 mark will be crucial. A daily candle close above this level will be the sign bulls need that momentum may be back.XRP/USD Daily Chart, August 14, 2025 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 14.The latest U.S. Producer Price Index offered the first tangible signs of tariff-led inflation taking hold, with headline PPI rising 0.9% MoM in July (vs. 0.2% expected) and up 3.3% YoY (vs. 2.5% expected). Core PPI followed a similar path, underscoring the early pass-through effects from recent import levies (3.7% on the y/y core data!)Risk appetite was muted, with Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and equities generally lagging as traders digested the inflation surprise and its implications for Fed policy.Crypto’s recent momentum cooled, with Bitcoin holding around $117,000 and altcoins drifting lower.Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned the idea of a national cryptocurrency acquisition, framing it as a potential strategic reserve in the digital era, but the headlines couldn't save the 4.50% correction in BTC. Read More: Imminent profit-taking in Cryptocurrencies – What's the storyCross-Asset Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView US Oil was the only asset rebounding with the US Dollar while most risk-assets took a hit. Look at the cryptos!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 14 – Source: OANDA Labs The USD rebounded a bit from the data but most of the movement could be seen in tomorrow's session.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Overnight, markets will be watching Japan’s GDP and China’s industrial production for fresh clues on regional growth momentum.Friday’s session brings U.S. Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET) and University of Michigan inflation expectations (10:00 AM) —but all eyes will be on the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska so don't forget to watch the headlines.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The DAX Index has continued to edge higher in the European session. Investors are keeping an eye on economic data, company earnings, and global events, as Presidents Trump and Putin are set to meet tomorrow.Optimism is also growing with expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month.Euro Area GDP and Industrial Output Euro zone industrial production fell more than expected in June, even though the economy grew steadily in the second quarter.The data may raise doubts about the 20-nation currency union's ability to withstand the effects of a global trade war.Industrial output dropped by 1.3% in June, mainly due to a sharp decline in Germany and weak consumer goods production, missing expectations of a 1.0% fall, according to Eurostat data on Thursday. Adding to the disappointment, Eurostat revised May's output growth down to 1.1% from 1.7%, showing the trend is weaker than expected.Meanwhile, GDP grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, matching earlier estimates, and employment also rose by 0.1%, as predicted, but this was slower than the 0.2% growth in the previous quarter.Recent positive data, like purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) and the European Commission's sentiment report, suggested that consumer spending was helping the euro zone handle trade tensions. However, newer figures, such as industrial orders and a key sentiment report from Germany, have cast doubt on this optimism.Despite this, investors remain hopeful for a slight recovery, supported by the recent EU trade deal with the U.S., which brings more stability, and Germany's plans to significantly increase government spending to boost growth.Despite the data the DAX continued its advance today as market participants appear to have shrugged off any concerns. Among individual shares, top gainers include Airbus SE, Vonovia SE and Rheinmetall AG with gains of 1.7%, 3.23% and 2.16% respectively.Technical Analysis - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, Looking at the daily chart below and we seem to be trading in a bear flag pattern at the moment.In theory, such a pattern is a precursor for a bullish breakout but the top end of the pattern rests some 140 points away.The period-14 RSI has bounced off the 50 level indicating some bullish momentum for the index moving forward.DAX (Germany 30) Daily Chart, August 14, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Now dropping down to a two-hour chart and we have broken out of what appears to be a bull flag/triangle pattern.Measuring the mouth of the pattern market participants could plot a potential target around 400 points away.However, the daily chart above will bring some stern resistance between 100 -150 pints away from current price.In theory an initial move higher could still bring gains of around 100-150 points, while a break above the bull flag on the daily, coil lead to a retest of the all-time highs at 24650DAX (Germany 30) Two-Hour (H2), August 14, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - DAX Index (GER30) Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Short on the DAX with 71% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-short suggests that the DAX Index prices could continue to rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US CPI for July in line with expectations – headline +0.2% m/m, core +0.3% m/m; annual rates at 2.7% and 3.1% respectively.Wall Street rallies, dollar softens – major indices post solid gains, US Treasury yields fall; markets almost fully price a 25bp Fed cut in September.No signs of tariff-driven inflation – businesses still absorbing higher costs in margins, with demand constraints limiting price hikes.Trump steps up pressure on the Fed – calls for swift rate cuts, threatens to sue Powell; growing number of FOMC members favour a more dovish stance.EUR/USD uptrend intact – next target at 1.18, with a break above opening the way towards 1.20–1.23.Market reaction to inflation data – Wall Street rallies, dollar softens July’s US inflation data came in line with expectations for headline CPI and slightly higher on the core measure, but markets interpreted the release as supportive of a more accommodative Federal Reserve. On 12 August, Wall Street indices closed the session with notable gains, reflecting increased investor optimism over the economic outlook and interest rate prospects. The US dollar weakened against major currencies, while US Treasury yields declined. Fed Funds Futures almost fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in September, with markets also increasing bets on further easing before year-end.The Fed’s dual mandate is shifting further towards prioritising maximum employment, a stance echoed by a growing number of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, due at the end of next week, will offer Chair Jerome Powell an opportunity to adjust the policy narrative. Historically, the Central Bankers’ Symposium in the Rocky Mountains has often marked turning points in US monetary policy.Slower consumer price growth In July 2025, headline CPI rose by 0.2% m/m compared with 0.3% in June, while the annual rate held steady at 2.7%, in line with forecasts. Core inflation edged up to 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y from 0.2% and 2.9% respectively, modestly exceeding expectations on the yearly reading.Price breakdown – energy falls, food flat Energy prices fell by 1.1% m/m, while food prices were unchanged. In core goods (excluding vehicles), price growth slowed to +0.2% m/m from +0.55% in June. Increases were seen in furniture (+0.9%), used cars (+0.5%), sporting goods (+0.4%) and clothing (+0.1%). Household appliance prices unexpectedly declined by 0.9%.Seasonal gains in services Airfares rose by 4% m/m, while medical services costs increased by 0.7%, largely due to dental services. Shelter costs rose only modestly, by 0.2%.No tariff-driven inflation pressure The absence of signs of rising inflationary pressure following President Trump’s tariff measures suggests that businesses are absorbing higher costs in their margins rather than passing them on to consumers. This is supported by the latest NFIB survey, which showed the share of small firms planning price hikes in the next three months falling to 28% from 32%, pointing to demand-side constraints.Inflation and Fed policy outlook Analysts see little risk of inflation breaching 4% y/y this autumn, with growing odds of a decline below 2% by the end of 2026. The data reinforce expectations for a 25bp Fed rate cut in September, followed by another in December. Fed Funds Futures are currently pricing in 26bp of easing at the 17 September FOMC meeting and a total of 63bp by year-end. Market pricing of the US interest rate path based on Fed Funds Futures, source: Bloomberg Trump steps up pressure on Powell President Donald Trump has intensified his calls for swift rate cuts, even suggesting he might sue Fed Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of incompetence in overseeing building renovations at the central bank.FOMC members’ comments Thomas Barkin noted that the balance of risks for the labour market and inflation remains unclear, and that the Fed is well positioned to respond appropriately. Stephen Miran, a new Board Governor appointed by Trump, stated that there is no evidence of tariff-driven inflation, adding that rent increases are partly linked to illegal immigration. Jeff Schmid argued that while growth remains solid, inflation is still too high, warranting a moderately restrictive stance. He added, however, that he would be prepared to change his view should demand weaken materially.What next for the dollar? In the week ending 5 August, net short USD positions fell sharply by $4.3bn – the fourth consecutive weekly reduction. The net short now stands at $7bn, down from a local peak of $18.6bn in early July.It is worth noting that these figures are lagging indicators and do not yet reflect the most recent moves in FX markets. The unwinding of short positions was visible in EUR/USD’s July pullback, although the latest disappointing non-farm payrolls data reignited selling pressure on the dollar. The uptrend in the pair remains technically intact, and August’s inflation figures have only strengthened the likelihood of further gains. The next upside target for EUR/USD is 1.18, with a break above this level opening the way towards 1.20–1.23. Chart of the main currency pair EUR/USD, daily data, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, USD/JPY Technical: Potential impending minor bullish breakout for Japanese yen, published on 8 August 2025.The emergence of the Japanese yen’s strength has materialized as expected that saw the USD/JPY recording a week-to-date drop of -0.9% at this time of writing and breaking below the first support of 146.60 highlighted in our previous report (printed an intraday low of 146.21 on Thursday, 14 August).Dovish Fed Funds rate futures pricing triggered by US Treasury Secretary‘s jawboning The recent bout of Japanese yen strength has been yesterday’s jawboning by a key US White House official, the US Treasury Secretary Bessent, during a prime-time television interview, urging the US Federal Reserve to be more dovish, and suggested cutting interest rates by 150 basis points (bps) or more, starting with a 50 bps in the upcoming September FOMC meeting.Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed Funds futures market has now started to price in a possibility of a 52% chance for a third Fed rate cut of 25 bps to occur on the last FOMC meeting of 2025 on 12 December to bring the Fed funds rate lower to 3.75%-3.5%, up from an earlier expectation of 2 rate cuts before Bessent’s media interview.Let’s decipher the latest technical developments in the USD/JPY and update its short-term directional bias (1 to 3 days) from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 14 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: 5-day rolling performances of the US dollar against major currencies as of 14 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: US/Japan implied short-term interest rate curve with USD/JPY as of 13 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain bearish bias in any bounces for the USD/JPY with key short-term pivotal resistance at 147.85 (also the 20-day moving average), with next supports coming in at 145.85 and 145.10/144.80 (also the key medium-term ascending range support in place since 22 April 2025 low) (see Fig. 1).Key elements The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the USD/JPY has dipped into the oversold region (below the 30 level) but has not flashed any bullish divergence condition. These observations suggest a potential imminent minor bounce on the USD/JPY rather than a steeper mean reversion rebound.In the past four weeks, the Japanese yen has lagged other major currencies in terms of relative performance against the greenback. Based on the five-day rolling performance as of Thursday, 14 August, the US dollar is now performing the second-worst against the Japanese yen; the USD/JPY has recorded a loss of -0.4%, below the US Dollar Index (-0.1%) (see Fig. 2).The monthly implied short-term interest rate spread (via short-term interest rate futures) between the US and Japan has continued to narrow in the next three months from 3.85% in August to 3.60% in September to 3.36% in October, and to 3.23% in November. This narrowing of the US/Japan implied short-term interest rate spread is likely to put downside pressure on the USD/JPY (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 147.85 invalidates the bearish scenario and sees a squeeze up towards the upper limit of the medium-term ascending range configuration for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 148.75 and 149.50 (also the key 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 13.Ceasefire talks between the EU and Ukraine, with Trump reportedly on the call, have edged closer to a deal—though the compromise would require Ukraine to cede land, keeping the agreement politically sensitive and far from certain.More Fed speak today on the tariff impact, with Goolsbee noting there is room for rate cuts but stressing the need for data dependence before making any move. Markets took the comment in stride, with little shift in rate expectations.The Nasdaq pushed to fresh all-time highs near 23,986 on CFDs, while the S&P touched 6,484, before both eased off their peaks as traders booked gains into the close. Despite the pullback, sentiment in tech remains firm.Crypto had another explosive session, with Ethereum touching $4,700—currently less than $100 shy of its record high—sparking a broad rally across Bitcoin and altcoins as momentum traders piled in. Read More: S&P 500 and Nasdaq bully through their all-time highs – Technical LevelsDaily Cross-Asset performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cryptos once again demarcated themselves from the rest of other assets.The Dow Jones did also mark another strong session.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 13 – Source: OANDA Labs Today was another round of USD weakness profiting largely to the GBP and once again, dragging the Loonie down.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's session is absolutely packed, but also don't forget the Australian Employment data at 21:30, coming up very soon.Tomorrow will see GDP releases for the UK (2:00 AM), Eurozone (5:00) and later in the evening Japan (19:50).the NA session wil focus mostly on the PPI, expected at 0.2% for both the Core and the headline, taking the y/y figure to 2.5% (headline) and 2.9% (core)Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Yesterday's CPI report fueled even more fire to the ongoing relentless rally in US Equities.Up a respective 46% and 34% from their Liberation Day lows, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 keep beating expectations.The fundamental background has been solid: Despite trading at high multiples to their EPS, Stock components of the indices have shown more than tenacious results and earnings growth.Supplemented by the ongoing AI Boom that started the rally after the 2022 bear market, Equities are discarding the effect of tariffs (which don't seem to be scaring markets too much anymore), not even counting the pricing of rate cuts, while Participants are increasingly unfazed by the words of the Trump Administration. Read More: Ethereum about $200 from its all-time highs – Technical Outlook With not many bearish catalysts allowing a real correction in Equities, it would be interesting to see if anything can stop the U.S. indices.The answers could be in the past: Too heavy leverage and positioning combined with degrading economic data.We are not in this territory just yet, but after the August 1st NFP report, it is never wrong to be cautious.In the meantime, as traders our job is to look in the present, so let's have a look at both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to spot where the indices are and where they could be going.S&P 500 Technical OutlookS&P 500 Daily S&P 500 Daily Chart, August 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView The NFP Retracement that marked lows at 6,216 allowed the overbought levels to correct back to neutral making the ongoing rally sound.One thing that bulls will have to be cautious about is the formation of potential bearish divergence with the previous cooldown in momentum, but before any short-term top gets found, it is still not here.Nonetheless, the current course of action is decisively bullish with no bear cnadles closing below the prior bull bar, leaving buyers in immediate control.For immediate bull/bear strength on the daily picture, keep an eye on the 20-Day MA that served as support throughout the entire rally – Currently at 6,359Markets will still expect the PPI and Retail Sales data releases in tomorrow and Friday's sessions, respectively which may still have an impact on the current strong pricing of a September cut.Having cleared the US CPI and NFP, except for any huge surprise, September is a done deal.S&P 500 1H S&P 500 1H Chart, August 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView The 2-session rally has been more than strong, but some profit-taking is currently ongoing marking intermediate highs at 6,484.Overbought RSI on the 1H timeframe combined with some key fibonnaci extensions from NFP lows have brought some selling, particularly as it combines with the middle of the upwards Channel from may, seen on the daily chart.The price action stays bullish but the immediate correction may look to retest the 50-H MA, currently at 6,420 inside the Pivot Zone.Levels of interest to place on your S&P 500 charts:Resistance Levels6,484 current daily highs and ATHATH resistance zone between 6,475 to 6,845Potential resistance at 6,539 (1.382 Fib extension)Support LevelsEnd-July Top now Pivot 6,420 to 6,430 (confluence with 1H MA 50)Main support 6,340 +/- 5ptsNFP Lows Mini-Support 43,25043,000 Main Support ZoneNasdaq Technical OutlookNasdaq Daily Nasdaq Daily Chart, August 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView The picture is very similar for the Nasdaq, except that its even sharper rebound already took it to a test of the higher bound of its Daily ascending Channel.The daily session for the NQ is more mixed due to the technical resistance, but the story is the same as for the Spoose. Momentum is very strong and except for any major surprise in upcoming data, the path should be to the upside as participants seem to discard the tariffs and Trump policies.Do keep in mind that the top of the channel may bring some consolidation/profit-taking.Buyers will have to monitor the potential formation of a bearish divergence with the same aspect as the S&P 500.Nasdaq 1H Nasdaq 1H Chart, August 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView Once again, the picture is pretty similar to the S&P 500 except for the CPI rally taking the index to the top of its ascending channel.It will be key to see the weekly close for future action but for now, momentum is cooling back down to neutral after topping in overbought levels.Resistance LevelsTop of Ascending Channel and Daily resistance 24,000 to 24,100Daily highs and ATH 23,986Potential resistance at 6,539 (1.382 Fib extension)Support Levels23,732 NFP highs, current Pivot Zone (confluence with 1H MA 50)23,500 Support23,150 Main Support Zone Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.