BOK holds at 2.50% and unveils Fed-style dot plot as policy pause deepens.Summary:Bank of Korea held its benchmark rate at 2.50%, as expected.Decision unanimous among seven-member board.2026 GDP forecast at 2.0%; 2027 growth seen at 1.8%.2025 inflation forecast at 2.2%; 2027 inflation at 2.0%.BOK introduces quarterly “dot plot”-style forward guidance.Move mirrors U.S. Federal Reserve communication framework.The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50% on Thursday, as widely expected, opting for policy stability amid resilient growth in the semiconductor sector and contained inflation pressures.All 34 economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a hold, and the central bank’s seven-member monetary policy board delivered a unanimous decision. Policymakers signalled that steady inflation and a chip-driven export recovery give them room to monitor financial stability risks, particularly currency volatility and asset prices — before considering further moves.Updated forecasts show the BOK expects 2026 GDP growth at 2.0% and 2027 growth at 1.8%, pointing to a moderate but steady expansion. Inflation is projected at 2.2% in 2025 before easing to 2.0% in 2027, broadly consistent with the bank’s medium-term target.Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT/2130 US Eastern time, with markets closely watching for commentary on exchange-rate risks and housing market dynamics.In a significant shift to communications strategy, the BOK is formally expanding its forward guidance framework. Beginning this meeting, it will publish a quarterly interest-rate projection chart, similar to the Federal Reserve’s “dot plot”, revealing anonymous views from all seven board members.Under the new system, each policymaker will provide three projected interest-rate paths over the next six months, resulting in 21 dots per release. The chart will be issued alongside quarterly economic forecasts in February, May, August and November, and will also disclose dissenting votes immediately.The move enhances transparency and aligns the BOK more closely with global central bank communication standards, while reinforcing the current message: policy is on hold, but not on autopilot. Dots cross the Pacific. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is 'just the data' post. ADDED: I posted details etc here:Australia Q4 capex beats expectations as renewable investment lifts outlook---Australian Private Capital Expenditure Q4 2025 +0.4% q/qexpected 0%, prior +6.4%CapExp for 2025-26, estimate 5 is AUD199.3bnprior 191.3bnPlant Machinery CapEx -1.7% q.qprior +11.5%Building CapExp +2.3% q/qprior +2.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says markets are misjudging AI’s impact on software firms.Huang argues AI will enhance, not replace, companies like ServiceNow.Q4 revenue surged 73% y/y to $68.13bn, beating estimates.Q1 guidance of $78bn ±2% significantly topped expectations.Strong outlook counters concerns of an AI hardware spending bubbleNvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushed back against fears that artificial intelligence will undermine traditional software companies, arguing markets have misjudged the sector’s evolution.Speaking to CNBC shortly after Nvidia delivered stronger-than-expected results, Huang said investors were wrong to assume AI agents would displace established enterprise platforms.“I think the markets got it wrong,” Huang said, pointing to companies such as ServiceNow. He argued that leading software firms are best positioned to integrate AI tools into their existing ecosystems, fine-tuning agents to optimise workflows rather than being disrupted by them.“In the end, we need the tools to finish their work and put the information back in a way that we can understand,” Huang added, framing AI as an enhancement layer rather than a substitute for enterprise software.The comments came as Nvidia posted a blockbuster fiscal fourth-quarter report. Revenue climbed 73% year-on-year to $68.13 billion, beating consensus expectations of $66.21 billion. Even more striking was forward guidance: Nvidia forecast fiscal first-quarter revenue of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, comfortably above the $72.6 billion analysts had pencilled in.The upbeat outlook directly addresses growing investor unease that the extraordinary surge in AI-related hardware spending may prove unsustainable. Concerns of an AI bubble have intensified as hyperscalers ramp capital expenditure, prompting questions about demand durability.For now, Nvidia’s numbers suggest AI infrastructure investment remains robust. Huang’s broader message is that the AI wave will expand the technology stack, from chips to software, rather than hollow it out. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Confidence remains high, but rising cost and wage pressures keep inflation risks alive.Summary:Business confidence fell 5 points to 59.2 but remains elevated.Own-activity outlook improved slightly to 52.6.Pricing intentions eased marginally but remain high at 53%.Cost expectations rose to 79.4% — highest since mid-2023.Wage expectations lifted to 3.01%, highest since April 2024.Inflation expectations rose to 2.93%, highest since July 2024.Construction indicators cooled sharply; agriculture strengthened.Credit conditions deteriorated as higher interest rates biteNew Zealand business confidence retreated from extreme highs in February but remains firmly expansionary, with the ANZ Business Outlook headline index easing 5 points to 59.2 Activity indicators remain solid, though sector divergence is widening.The own-activity outlook edged up to 52.6, with stronger late-month responses following the RBNZ’s recent Monetary Policy Statement, which helped ease financial conditions. However, experienced activity and employment indicators were softer in construction, highlighting ongoing volatility in that sector.Inflation pressures remain the dominant theme. The net percentage of firms intending to raise prices over the next three months slipped to 53.3% from 56.5%, but this only partially reversed January’s surge. Average pricing intentions eased slightly to 1.97% over three months. Meanwhile, cost expectations climbed to 79.4%, the highest since July 2023, and expected wage growth rose to 3.01%, its strongest reading since April 2024.Inflation expectations one year ahead increased to 2.93%, the highest since July 2024, challenging assumptions that inflation pressures will steadily fade. ANZ notes that pricing and wage indicators are not yet consistent with a smooth disinflation path, even though headline CPI is expected to return to the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band in Q1.Sectorally, agriculture lifted strongly, likely reflecting the 19% rise in dairy prices so far this year, while construction cooled sharply. Manufacturing remains the most confident sector (77), while retail pricing intentions are particularly elevated.Overall, the survey signals continued economic momentum but persistent inflation pressure, complicating the RBNZ’s confidence that inflation is durably heading back to 2%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ueda keeps March and April rate-hike window open, says wage gains could speed target timing.Earlier here, recapping now ICYMI. Summary:Ueda keeps tightening bias intactMarch and April meetings liveTarget timing could be brought forwardStrong wage talks key upside riskNo need to wait for April TankanBOJ says not behind curveDecember hike impact under reviewYen weakness complicates timingPolitical pressure clouds outlookEconomists still eye 1% by JuneBank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda used a Yomiuri newspaper interview to keep alive the prospect of another near-term rate increase, signalling that both the March and April policy meetings remain “live” for a potential move.Ueda reiterated the central bank’s basic stance of continuing to raise interest rates if Japan progresses toward its economic and price projections. Under forecasts released in January, the BOJ expects underlying inflation to reach its 2% target in the latter half of fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2027. However, he said the timing could be brought forward if this year’s spring wage negotiations deliver stronger-than-expected pay gains and firms pass higher labour costs on to consumers more swiftly.“We will hold a policy meeting in March and April, so we would like to reach a decision by scrutinising data available by then,” Ueda said, addressing growing market speculation that a hike could come as early as April.Importantly, he indicated the BOJ does not necessarily need to wait for the April 1 Tankan business sentiment survey before acting, noting the Bank conducts a range of other surveys and gathers sufficient information through multiple channels.Ueda also pushed back against criticism that the BOJ is behind the curve in tackling inflation, arguing underlying price pressures have yet to fully reach 2%. In assessing the impact of December’s rate hike, he said policymakers are watching how higher borrowing costs affect bank lending, corporate investment and household consumption.The remarks come amid heightened political sensitivity. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has expressed reservations about further tightening, and recent government board nominations viewed as pro-stimulus have weighed on the yen.The BOJ next meets on March 18–19, followed by April 27–28, when updated forecasts will be released. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect rates to reach 1% by end-June, underscoring that normalisation is widely seen as ongoing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran is pursuing intercontinental ballistic missiles and called Tehran’s refusal to discuss them a “big, big problem.” Talks Thursday will focus on the nuclear programme, though he stressed diplomacy remains on the table.Summary:Rubio calls Iran a “very grave” US threatSays Iran not enriching currentlyWarns Tehran seeking enrichment capabilityTalks Thursday to focus on nuclear programmeSays Iran pursuing intercontinental ballistic missilesMissile issue a “big, big problem”Flags conventional weapons riskDiplomacy “never off the table”US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Iran as a “very grave threat” to the United States, adopting a firm tone ahead of renewed talks expected to centre on Tehran’s nuclear programme.Speaking on Wednesday, Rubio said Iran is not currently enriching uranium but is attempting to reach the point where it ultimately can. The comment suggests Washington believes Tehran may be positioning itself to retain the technical capacity for rapid enrichment, even if active production is presently limited. That assessment keeps the focus squarely on preventing a scenario in which Iran could quickly scale up nuclear activity.Rubio confirmed that Thursday’s discussions will be largely focused on the nuclear issue. However, he made clear that the United States views the challenge as broader than enrichment alone. He warned that Iran is attempting to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles and possesses conventional weapons systems designed to threaten American interests. Significantly, he characterised Iran’s insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles as a “big, big problem,” signalling that missile development could become a central friction point in negotiations.The remarks underscore Washington’s view that missile capability and nuclear capacity are strategically linked, even if talks are formally structured around the nuclear file. By highlighting ICBM development, Rubio elevated the security stakes beyond the regional level.At the same time, he sought to temper expectations of imminent confrontation. Rubio stressed that diplomacy is “never off the table” and described Thursday’s engagement as simply “the next opportunity to talk,” rather than a decisive moment.Taken together, the comments reflect a dual-track posture: sustained pressure and deterrence messaging alongside continued willingness to engage diplomatically. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

IMF’s Georgieva says tariffs lifted goods inflation, backs gradual Fed easing and deficit action.Summary:Goods inflation partly tariff-drivenFed funds at 3.25%–3.5% consistent with full employmentUS debt requires determined fiscal actionIMF shares concern on trade deficitsCurrent account deficit “too big”No formal view yet on tariff court rulingCourt implications to be incorporated into Article IVIMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said US goods inflation has been “somewhat affected” by tariffs, underscoring the lingering price effects of trade policy even as broader inflation moderates.Speaking alongside the Fund’s Article IV review of the United States, Georgieva indicated that bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% would be consistent with the US economy returning to full employment. The comment suggests the IMF sees scope for further policy easing over time, assuming inflation continues to trend lower and labour market conditions remain stable.On fiscal policy, Georgieva struck a firm tone, saying determined action will be required to put US public debt on a downward path. The IMF has projected persistent deficits and rising debt levels over the coming years, reinforcing concerns about medium-term fiscal sustainability.She also said the Fund shares the Trump administration’s concern over widening US trade and current account deficits, adding bluntly that the external gap is “too big.” The IMF has warned that sustained large deficits leave the US exposed to shifts in global investor sentiment.Regarding the recent Supreme Court decision striking down some of former President Trump’s tariffs, Georgieva said the IMF has not yet taken a formal view. The Fund will assess the implications and incorporate them into the final Article IV report.Overall, Georgieva’s remarks blend cautious optimism on inflation and employment with clear warnings on fiscal and external vulnerabilities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

IMF sees solid US growth but warns rising deficits and debt heighten vulnerabilities.Summary:IMF completes US Article IV review2026 growth seen at 2.4%Employment growth to slow structurallyUnemployment near 4% in 2026–27Core PCE at 2% by early 2027Deficits seen at 7–8% of GDPDebt projected at 140% of GDP by 2031Current account gap 3.5–4% of GDPFed credibility “highly valuable asset”Warns of disorderly portfolio shiftsThe International Monetary Fund called on the United States to rein in large fiscal deficits, while forecasting steady economic growth and a gradual return of inflation to target.In its Article IV review, the IMF projected US growth of 2.4% in 2026, in line with its January World Economic Outlook, and said the unemployment rate should remain close to 4% through 2026–27. However, it warned that employment growth is likely to slow to less than half its pre-pandemic pace, reflecting weaker population growth.Inflation is expected to ease only gradually, with core PCE reaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in early 2027. The Fund noted that tariff pass-through to consumer prices could be lower than assumed, potentially allowing more front-loaded disinflation and firmer activity. At the same time, ongoing trade uncertainty could weigh on growth.The IMF underscored rising fiscal vulnerabilities, projecting US deficits in the 7–8% of GDP range in coming years — more than double levels targeted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Consolidated general government debt is forecast to climb to 140% of GDP by 2031.Externally, the current account deficit is expected to remain large at 3.5–4% of GDP, supported by non-resident financial inflows and rising external borrowing. The Fund cautioned that an abrupt shift in global portfolio preferences could trigger disorderly external rebalancing.It also stressed that the Federal Reserve’s policy credibility is a “highly valuable asset” that must be carefully guarded, including by preserving monetary policy independence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Ueda keeps tightening bias intact, flags further hikes if outlook firms.Summary:Ueda reiterates conditional tightening biasRates to rise if outlook materialisesUnderlying inflation still below 2%Policy aimed at preventing overshootBoJ says not “behind the curve”Inflation expected to re-accelerateNo change to January projectionsBank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced the central bank’s tightening bias, signalling that further rate hikes remain likely if incoming data strengthen confidence in the Bank’s economic and inflation forecasts.In comments reported by Yomiuri, Ueda said the BoJ’s “basic stance” is to continue raising interest rates if the probability of its growth and price projections materialising increases. While underlying inflation has yet to fully reach the 2% target, policy will be guided to ensure it converges sustainably to around that level without overshooting on a persistent basis.Ueda added that the Bank does not believe it is behind the curve in addressing the risk of excessive inflation, and said there has been no change since January to the projected timing for achieving the price target. He expects inflation to re-accelerate following the current slowdown.Importantly, Ueda flagged upside risks. If the outcome of the spring wage negotiations proves stronger than expected and firms pass higher labour costs through to prices more swiftly, the 2% inflation target could be achieved sooner than currently projected — a comment that tilts hawkish at the margin.Looking ahead, Ueda noted that while the April Tankan survey will be an important input, the BoJ is conducting multiple surveys and does not need to wait for the Tankan release to have sufficient data. With policy meetings scheduled for March and April, he said the Bank will scrutinise all available information and reach a decision, responding to growing market speculation that a rate hike could come as early as April.He also said there has been no change since January to the projected timing for achieving the price target and that inflation is expected to re-accelerate following the current slowdown.Taken together, the comments suggest the BoJ remains in gradual tightening mode, with further rate hikes dependent on confirmation that underlying inflation dynamics are firming sustainably toward target. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive dayBank of Japan Governor Ueda says will examine the impact of rate hikes so farBitcoin Technicals: Bitcoin is up sharply today. What did the rally do to the technicals?Israeli press: There is a high chance of an attack on IranFed's Musalem: Inflation is almost a full percentage point above targetU.S. Treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 3.615%Bitcoin rips to $68,000 in a quick turnaroundEIA weekly US crude oil inventories +15.989m vs +1.481m expectedUSTR's Greer drops some hints about what's coming on tradeCanada capital spending intentions for 2026 come in at 3.7% vs 2025 pace of 4.7%The USD is mixed to start the North American session. What are the charts telling traders?OPEC to consider hiking output by 137K bpd in April - reportUSTR Greer: We intend to stick to the China deal we had beforeinvestingLive European FX news wrap: JPY extends losses, RBA Bullock signals patienceThe U.S. dollar weakened against all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY. The day was void of any major economic releases in the US (or Canada). The biggest decline came vs the AUD (-0.92%). Overnight, the Australia CPI came in higher than expectations (Y/Y 3.8% vs 3.7% exp; M/M 0.4% vs 0.3% exp). The RBA did raise rates earlier this month by 25 basis points to 3.85% after declines prior took the rate down from 4.35%. The NZDUSD rose 0.64% and GBPUSD rose by 0.50%.The JPY lagged (rose 0.35%), pressured by expectations of looser near-term policy after PM Takaichi’s nominations to the BoJ board (considered dovish) . Short-end JGB yields fell on dovish policy prospects, while long-end yields rose on longer-term growth expectations. USDJPY briefly pushed to a high at 156.82 before easing back toward 156.43 curently.The declines came despite firmer U.S. yields. Looking at the yield curve:2 year yield rose 2.1 basis points to 3.4771%5 year yield rose 3.0 basis points to 3.625%10 year yield rose 2.3 basis points to 4.0557%30 year yield rose 1.3 basis points to 4.702%With the USD moving lower, the precious metals took their lead from it:Gold rose $27.82 or 0.54% to $5170. That was near the midpoint of the day's range.Silver surged by $2.34 or 2.69% to $89.44. The high reached $91.29Bitcoin also rebounded with a gain of $5371 r 9.33% at $69,393. For a technical review of Bitcoin CLICK HERE. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said inflation remains nearly a full percentage point above the Fed’s target, underscoring the need to “finish the job” on price stability. While acknowledging that inflation could stay higher for longer, he emphasized that this is not his baseline expectation.His base case calls for the economy to grow at or above 2%, supported by accommodative financial conditions, deregulation, and fiscal tailwinds. He noted that roughly half of the excess inflation can be attributed to tariffs, which he expects will fade as the year progresses.On the labor market, Musalem described conditions as solid but vulnerable, particularly to a potential rise in layoffs.He characterized current monetary policy as neutral and appropriately balanced. Bringing inflation back to target would support consumption, strengthen growth, and could help lower longer-term yields such as the 10-year rate.Overall tone: balanced but cautiously constructive. While he is not signaling imminent easing, the comments suggest openness to rate cuts later in the year — provided inflation continues to move convincingly toward target.US stocks ended the day with solid gains for the 2nd consecutive day ahead of the important Nvidia earnings:The gains were led by the NASDAQ index with a rise of 1.26%. The S&P index rose by 0.81% and The Dow industrial average rose by 0.63%. The Russell 2000 rose by 0.41%.After hours Nvidia reported better than expected earnings:EPS $1.62 (BEAT; exp. $1.54), Revenue $68.1B (BEAT; exp. $66.12B)Gross margin: 75% (aided by lower inventory provisions)Shares are up 2.42% in after hours trading after rising 1.41% on the day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Summary:Q1 revenue guidance $76.44B–$79.56B vs $72.78B estQ4 revenue $68.13B, +73% y/y, beat vs $65.91BData centre revenue $62.3B, +75% y/y, ahead of estimatesGaming revenue $3.7B, below consensusGross margin 75.2%, remains exceptionally strongAdjusted operating income $46.11B, +81% y/yFree cash flow $34.9B vs $15.5B y/yFY27 tax rate seen 17%–19%Nvidia delivered another emphatic quarter, underscored by a first-quarter revenue forecast that comfortably exceeded expectations and reinforced the durability of the AI investment cycle.The company guided Q1 revenue to a range of $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion, well above the $72.78 billion Bloomberg consensus. The midpoint implies continued sequential expansion despite already extraordinary scale, suggesting hyperscaler and enterprise AI demand remains robust.Fourth-quarter revenue rose 73% year-on-year to $68.13 billion, topping estimates of $65.91 billion. The data centre segment, the core of Nvidia’s AI franchise, surged 75% to $62.3 billion, beating forecasts and reaffirming that accelerated computing and AI infrastructure remain the dominant growth engine.Gaming revenue rose 48% to $3.7 billion but came in below expectations, while professional visualisation revenue of $1.3 billion sharply exceeded estimates. Automotive revenue of $604 million was slightly softer than forecast.Profitability metrics were striking. Adjusted gross margin held at a formidable 75.2%. Adjusted operating income jumped 81% to $46.11 billion, ahead of consensus, even as operating expenses and R&D spending rose strongly year-on-year.Free cash flow nearly doubled to $34.9 billion, highlighting the company’s extraordinary cash-generating capacity at scale.For fiscal 2027, Nvidia expects GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates between 17% and 19%, excluding discrete items.Overall, the results reinforce Nvidia’s dominance at the centre of the AI buildout, with guidance suggesting momentum remains intact rather than peaking.The strong guide reinforces confidence in AI infrastructure spending and may buoy semiconductor peers and hyperscalers, while sustaining pressure on short positions betting on peak AI demand. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major US indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index with a rise of 1.26%. The S&P index rose by 0.81% and the Dow industrial average rose by 0.63%. The Russell 2000 rose by 0.41%.The gains come ahead of the earnings from Salesforce, and Nvidia after the close. Salesforce shares rose 3.41%. Nvidia shares rose by 1.44%.EARNINGS: Salesforce just announced earnings of $3.81 versus $3.05 estimate. Revenues came in $11.2 billion versus $11.18 billion estimate. The company announced share buybacks of the $50 billion and increase the dividend 2 $0.44 per share. The outlook for Q1 as EPS at $3.11 – $3.13 versus $3.01 expected. Sees revenues of 11.03 million – $11.08 billion expected $11.0 billion estimate. Despite all the good news, shares are down $6.50 or -3.41% in after-hours trading. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japanese media with the news drop. I'll have more to come on this separately.Under some pressure:The Japanese Yen sinks as PM Takaichi signals opposition to further BoJ rate hikes This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The ANZ Business Outlook survey is a well-regarded monthly survey tracking the sentiment of hundreds of New Zealand businesses concerning the economy's future. It measures confidence, hiring, investment, and inflation expectations, with findings recently showing, for instance, a 30-year high in December 2025.From the Reserve Bank of Australia we get its 'Bulletin'. The Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin is published quarterly in March (or the end of February for this one today!), June, September, and December. It contains articles on the economy and financial system from teams throughout the Reserve Bank of Australia. Its unlikely to be an AUD mover much upon release. Finally, the Japan Cabinet Office Leading Index. This is a forward-looking composite indicator aimed at signalling potential turning points in Japan’s business cycle around three to six months ahead. It draws together roughly a dozen underlying measures, such as machinery orders, inventory ratios, equity prices and consumer sentiment, to provide an early read on future economic momentum. Published monthly by the Cabinet Office as part of its broader Composite Indices of Business Conditions (which also include coincident and lagging gauges), the index is used to anticipate shifts between expansion and contraction. While the coincident index reflects current conditions, the leading index focuses on what lies ahead. Stronger-than-expected readings are typically interpreted as supportive, at the margin, for the Japanese yen, as they imply improving economic prospects.This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The price of Bitcoin is staging an aggressive rebound today after sliding to its lowest level since February 6 just yesterday. The low reached $62,525, marking a key test of channel support. Since then, buyers have stepped in decisively.Bitcoin is currently higher by roughly $5,000, a gain of 7.8% on the day. That is clearly constructive for short-term longs.However, perspective matters. Even with today’s rally, price remains down nearly 30% from the January 14 high, underscoring that this is still a recovery inside a broader corrective phase.Technical picture improves — but work remainsFrom a technical standpoint, yesterday’s low tagged the lower boundary of a descending channel and found willing buyers. That reaction low gave the bulls something to lean against.Today’s rally has also reclaimed two important short-term barometers:100-hour moving average at $65,975200-hour moving average at $66,674Holding above those levels shifts the short-term bias more favorably toward the upside.Price is now pressing against the topside channel trend line near $68,835. That level is acting as immediate resistance and represents the next decision point.What needs to happen next?For upside momentum to accelerate, Bitcoin needs to break and sustain trade above the channel resistance.A confirmed move above $68,835 would open the door toward a series of February swing highs:$70,230$70,937$72,174Clearing those levels would signal that the corrective bounce is evolving into something more meaningful.Beyond that, traders will focus on the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January high, which comes in at $74,402. That Fibonacci level represents a major technical hurdle and would likely attract increased attention if reached.Technical biasThe short-term bias has improved following the bounce from channel support and the reclaim of the hourly moving averages.However, structurally, Bitcoin remains in a broader corrective downtrend from the January peak. Bulls need a sustained break above channel resistance and the February highs to shift the intermediate-term tone more decisively higher.For now, momentum favors the upside — but key resistance levels sit directly overhead This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Israel's Ynet reports that US strikes on Iran are increasingly likely. The report citing Israeli diplomatic sources estimates that the new Iranian proposals do not meet the American threshold conditions. One of the sources estimated there is a high chance the US will launch an attack."It’s hard for us to see the Americans walking this back," another Israeli official was quoted as saying.US and Iranian officials arrived in Geneva today and will meet tomorrow.I'd estimate there is a $5-7 premium in oil prices already due to the probability of a strike based on the huge US military build up in the region. WTI crude oil today is up 9 cents to $65.72 and couldn't sell off despite headlines saying OPEC+ could hike production on the weekend and a huge US weekly inventory build.So it's clear the oil market is 'buying the rumor' but will it 'sell the fact'? If the US launches strike that are aimed at anything less than regime change, I think there is a risk of disappointment. We have seen this script many times before where only hours after the bombs fall, oil tops as profits are taken. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

My baseline outlook is economy grows at or above 2%Financial conditions are accommodative, there is deregulation and fiscal tailwindsHalf of excess inflation comes from tariffs, this will fade as the year progressesJob market is vulnerable to an increase in layoffs Inflation could stay higher for longer but that's not my baselinePolicy is balancing appropriatelyPolicy is now neutralBringing down inflation to target will help with consumption and growth and could lower 10-year rateIt's important to finish the job on inflationIt sounds like he is willing to cut later in the year but will need to see inflation drop. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

AUDUSD rebounds as buyers reclaim key moving averagesThe AUDUSD has shifted tone over the past 24 hours, transitioning from defensive trade below resistance to a more constructive technical posture. After spending much of yesterday pinned beneath its 200-hour moving average, the pair has now forced its way back above both the 100- and 200-hour MAs, tilting the short-term bias modestly higher.Yesterday: Sellers lean against the 200-hour MADuring yesterday’s session, rallies consistently stalled near the 200-hour moving average. The pair tested that level multiple times at prior swing highs, but each attempt was met with willing sellers. That repeated failure reinforced the idea that sellers were defending trend resistance.There was also a brief break below the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, a level that has acted as dynamic support in recent weeks. However, downside momentum faded quickly. The move stalled well ahead of last week’s low near 0.7014, with the session low only reaching 0.7025 before buyers stepped back in.That inability to press toward the broader range floor signaled that downside conviction was lacking.Today: Buyers regain short-term controlIn the Asian-Pacific session, the technical tone improved materially. The pair pushed above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, flipping those levels from resistance into support. Once above, buyers showed commitment.Momentum carried the price through a key swing area between 0.7094 and 0.70988, and then above Monday’s high near 0.7111. The rally extended to 0.71165, marking a fresh near-term high.However, upside momentum stalled at that level. The pair has since rotated lower, but importantly, it remains above the rising 100- and 200-hour moving averages (currently near 0.7066). As long as price holds above that cluster, buyers retain the short-term technical edge.What needs to happen next?For the bullish case to strengthen, the pair must:Reclaim and hold above 0.7094–0.70988Build momentum back toward 0.7116Then target the 2026 high at 0.71464Sustained trade above 0.7099 would confirm that today’s pullback was merely corrective. From there, traders will increasingly focus on the year’s high at 0.71464 as the next major upside objective.On the downside, a move back below the rising 100- and 200-hour MAs would weaken the short-term bullish structure and likely invite a rotation back toward the mid-range of the broader three-week consolidation. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This was hinted at in the API numbers yesterday but it's still an astonishing build.Gasoline -1011K vs -560K expectedDistillates +252K vs -1594K expThere were some waves late yesterday when the API survey showed this:Crude +11.4mGasoline -1530KDistillates -2770KSo even with this tip-off in the API report, this is still a very bearish number. That said, these numbers have been all over the place since the removal of Venezuelan sanctions so I'm guess a lot of this is invisible sanctioned oil coming back into the visible market.WTI crude was flat today as earlier a report said OPEC+ was considering boosting output this weekend but it's under pressure after inventories. The US and Iran are also meeting today in Geneva. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.