The Pakistani leaks are starting again and say they expect a revised Iranian proposal to end the war by the end of the week. We've certainly heard that kind of thing before but let's hope it's for real this time.That's from MS Now who reports this:Two Pakistani officials in Islamabad with direct knowledge of the talks between the U.S. and Iran told MS NOW they expect a revised Iranian proposal to end the war by the end of the week.The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity around the talks, said they will then share Iran’s proposal with U.S. negotiators and push for an in-person meeting between both sides early next week.Both the U.S. and Iran are “focused on diplomatic solutions” to bring the war to an end, they said.Maybe the sides aren't that far apart.Secondly, this is a strange one:Al-Arabiya cites a Channel 12 report, which is an Israeli TV station but says that Israel is preparing to announce the failure of negotiations with IranIt's odd because Israel isn't negotiating with Iran, the US is. Israel is negotiating with Lebanon so maybe something is lost in translation along the way. I also don't think anyone knows what Trump will announce (including perhaps Trump himself) so I would be skeptical of this report, but it's making the rounds.What is clear is that negotiations don't appear to be making progress, though often it happens where you don't see it. WTI crude oil is down $2.45 to $104.41 after rising as high as $110.93 earlier today so that's a good sign. Russian media reports that in a phone call with Trump, Russia's Putin pointed out that if the US and Israel resume military operation, this would inevitably lead to extremely adverse consequences not only for Iran and its neighbours, but for entire international community. He also stressed that a ground operation on Iranian territory would be particularly unacceptable and dangerous.In any case, stocks are at a session high on the Pakistan headline and the reversal in oil. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The mega-cap technology trade is becoming more selective. GOOG/GOOGL is showing clear relative strength, while META is under pressure. MSFT has weakened across several timeframes, despite still being a core AI and cloud name. AMZN looks mixed rather than clearly bearish, with softness in the short term but strength over longer windows. For stock investors, this means simple “Magnificent 7 beta” may be less useful than relative stock selection. The mega-cap complex is no longer acting like one tradeFor much of the past few years, stock investors could simplify the mega-cap story into one broad idea: if money was flowing into the biggest technology names, the whole group usually benefited.That is no longer the clean message.The latest market heatmaps show a clear split across the mega-cap complex. On the one-day view, GOOGL is strongly higher, while META is sharply lower, MSFT is down, and AMZN is also soft. That alone is important. But the more interesting point is that this split also appears across wider timeframes.Over one week, GOOGL remains strongly positive, while META is still deeply negative and MSFT remains weak. Over one month, the broader mega-cap and AI complex looks much stronger, with GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, and many semiconductor names all higher. But over three months, the split comes back clearly: GOOGL remains positive, AMZN remains positive, AAPL is positive, NVDA is positive, while META is deeply negative and MSFT is also negative.That is the key investor message: this is not one uniform mega-cap move anymore.For our readers at investingLive.com, let’s break down what this S&P 500 Futures (ES) chart is telling us through the lens of Volume Profile. The chart displays a clear "Value Area," which represents the price range where 70% of the volume was traded during this period. The upper black line is known as the Value Area High (VAH), currently sitting around the 7175 level. When price trades above the VAH, it indicates that the market is in an "imbalance" phase, where buyers are aggressive enough to push price beyond what was previously considered "fair value." As long as the ES remains above 7175, the bulls are in control, and the previous resistance of the Value Area is now acting as a floor or support.Educationally, it’s critical to understand why we "watch 7175" rather than shorting blindly at these highs. In auction market theory, price discovery occurs when the market moves out of value to find new participants. Shorting while the price is holding above the VAH is essentially "fighting the trend," as you are betting against the momentum that cleared the high-volume cluster. A breakdown back into the Value Area (below 7175) would be the first signal of a "Value Area Look Above and Fail" setup, which could target the Point of Control (the red line) or even the Value Area Low. Until that breakdown occurs, the path of least resistance remains higher.GOOG is showing leadership while META is showing distribution riskThe clearest contrast is between Alphabet and Meta.Alphabet’s chart and earnings reaction show relative strength. In the heatmaps, GOOGL is green across the 1-day, 1-week, 1-month, and 3-month views. That kind of consistency matters because it shows buyers are not only reacting to one headline. They are continuing to reward the stock across multiple windows.Meta is the opposite. META is red on the 1-day and 1-week views, and it is also deeply negative on the 3-month view. Even though it was positive on the 1-month heatmap, the broader message is more fragile. The stock is not acting like a leader right now.For investors, this does not mean Alphabet is automatically “good” and Meta is automatically “bad.” But it does mean the market is currently treating them very differently. That difference is exactly what relative selection is about.Microsoft is a reminder that quality is not always enoughMicrosoft remains one of the most important companies in the world. It has deep exposure to cloud computing, artificial intelligence, enterprise software, and productivity tools.But the stock market does not only reward quality. It rewards quality relative to expectations.MSFT is down on the 1-day view, down on the 1-week view, and down on the 3-month view. That weakness matters because Microsoft has been one of the most crowded “safe AI compounder” holdings in global equity portfolios.When a stock like Microsoft weakens while Alphabet rises, investors should pay attention. The market may not be rejecting Microsoft’s long-term story. But it may be saying that the valuation, earnings setup, or near-term expectations were too demanding.That is a different kind of risk than business-quality risk. It is expectation risk.Amazon looks mixed, not brokenAmazon is more nuanced.AMZN is soft on the one-day view, but positive on the one-week, one-month, and three-month views. That makes it different from Meta and Microsoft.The short-term reaction may be cautious, but the longer windows still show stronger positioning. In other words, Amazon does not look like the weakest mega-cap name in this group. It looks more like a stock that is digesting expectations after a strong prior move.That distinction matters. A stock that is down after running hard is not the same as a stock that is breaking down across multiple timeframes.Why “Magnificent 7 beta” may be less useful nowThe phrase “Magnificent 7 beta” refers to the idea that investors can gain exposure to the largest technology winners simply by owning the group. That worked very well during broad mega-cap momentum phases.But when GOOGL is rising, META is falling, MSFT is weak, and AMZN is mixed, the strategy becomes less simple.At that point, the market is not just buying size. It is buying the names where earnings, valuation, guidance, AI spending, margins, and investor expectations line up better.That is a more mature market structure. It means the easy phase of “buy the whole mega-cap basket” may be giving way to a more selective phase.For stock investors, this can be positive. It creates opportunity for better selection. But it also means passive exposure to the biggest names may hide major internal divergence.The important relative-strength mapHere is the simplified read from the heatmap context:This is why the current market is so important. The mega-cap complex is not giving one message. It is giving several different messages at once.What stock investors should watch nextThe next phase is about follow-through.If GOOGL holds its gains while META and MSFT remain weak, that would confirm a stronger relative-selection regime inside mega-cap tech.If META stabilizes quickly, then the recent selloff may become a reset rather than a deeper distribution signal.If MSFT repairs, it could move back into leadership, especially if investors decide the earnings reaction was too harsh.If AMZN stays firm despite short-term softness, it may remain one of the more resilient mega-cap names.The key is not just whether the Nasdaq goes up or down. The key is which mega-cap stocks lead the next move.Final thought for stock investorsThe stock market is sending a clear message: the mega-cap complex is no longer moving as one block.That matters.For investors, the next edge may come less from simply owning “Magnificent 7 exposure” and more from understanding which companies are gaining relative sponsorship and which ones are losing it.Right now, the market is rewarding Alphabet more than Meta. It is questioning Microsoft more than many would have expected. And it is treating Amazon as mixed rather than clearly broken.That is a more selective market. And in a more selective market, relative strength matters.This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their own risk tolerance before making investment decisions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD moved lower in the early European session, testing a key swing area between 1.3446 and 1.3465. That move also dipped below the key 100-day moving average at 1.3465, but sellers couldn’t sustain momentum. The low reached 1.3455 before buyers stepped in and pushed the price higher.Part of the reversal came as sharp downside momentum in USDJPY triggered broader USD selling. Fundamentally, the Bank of England held rates steady, but one member voted for a 25 bp hike, adding a slight hawkish tilt.As the North American session got underway, the pair hovered around the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3510—a classic “three’s a crowd” setup defined by the current price, and the 2 hourly moving averages, signaling indecision and a potential breakout brewing.That breakout came to the upside.A move above the European high at 1.35345 triggered momentum buying, driving the pair toward a key swing area between 1.3575 and 1.35985—defined by prior highs from mid-April. The price reached 1.3593, just shy of the upper extreme.So now the market has tested both ends of the range: Sellers had their shot below 1.3455 Buyers had their shot near 1.3600Neither side has taken full control.So what next?Bias: Buyers have the edge while price remains near the top of the range Upside target: A break above 1.3600 opens the door toward 1.3725–1.37725, with the 2026 high at 1.38688 further out Downside risk: Failure at resistance keeps sellers in play, with a move back toward the 100/200 hour MAs near 1.3510–1.3513The full April range has now been tested from both sides.The next move likely comes from a break of this ceiling—or a failure that sends price rotating back lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 has extended today's gain to 38 points, or 0.5%. It has been 13 points lower at the lows as the market digests five big earnings reports from late yesterday and one from this morning. The reactions in those names:MSFT -5.5%META -8.9%GOOGL +7.7%AMZN -1.4%QCOM +16%.CAT +10.1%The tech names are truly a mixed bag but I think the chip names are actually more important this point. The hyperscalers are incinerating cash but they increased capex again in the quarter and that's a good sign for the $700 billion that's flowing downstream from it.For the broader market, I wonder if Caterpillar wasn't a stronger signal.“While there is increased uncertainty due to geopolitical events and elevated energy prices, our end markets have been resilient.”At the same time, CAT itself cited AI capex as a big driver for its earnings, particularly in power generation.Another notable name to report was Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines and shares of that company rose 6.7% in a positive view on the consumer.“Consumers… remain very healthy, supported by excess cash, strong employment trends and a continued preference for consuming experiences over purchasing things," an Jason Liberty, Chairman and CEO. “We are not turning the corner. We have turned the corner… the moderation that we saw has turned.”Even on the war, he said the consumer only briefly dipped.“The softer booking trends lasted for a few weeks, but we have now turned a corner," Liberty said.Today we get earnings from Apple, which has generally stayed out of the AI race but could stand to benefit from it if there is a meaningful change in on-device usage. Though some argue that AI could take us away from our phones.As for the stock market, there is somewhat of a lift today from dipping oil prices, a lower USD and declining Treasury yields. Those are typical moves around optimism that the war is ending, though the headlines today don't exactly support that. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I often write that the industrial revolution was the biggest thing to happen in human history but we might be re-writing history right now.I want to underscore the amount of spending that's going into AI right now because the numbers are almost unfathomable, something I touched on yesterday.Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta collectively plan to spend $725 billion on capex in 2026, up 77% from last year's record $410 billion. Those numbers are accelerating. OpenAI will also spend $100-$125 billion and Anthropic might be in the $50 billion range. In China, they're likely to be spending somewhere in the $100-$200 billion range and then you can add in another $100-$200 billion in costs for power, the grid, cooling, gas turbines, substations and land.All in, that's somewhere in the $900 billion to $1.3 trillion range for this year alone, and no one is indicating any slowdown from there (at least not yet).These are truly staggering numbers that I want to put into perspective:That's around double the cost of the entire 35-year project of building the US interstate highway system, which took 35 years (inflation adjusted)Slightly below the entire UK government budget and roughly double Germany's federal budgetAbout 1.5x Japan's budgetLarger than the GDP of every country except the USAAbout 4x larger than the multi-year Apollo project to put a man on the moon (inflation adjusted)Apollo spending peaked at 4.4% of Federal spending, AI capex right now is equivalent to 15-20% of US government spendingHere is the big one: The estimated total spending on WWII in today's dollars was $4-7 trillion, globally for the duration of the war. At this pace, AI spending will match that. For the US alone, peak WWII spending was $1 trillion per year in today's dollars and US AI spending alone this year is close to that. Now as a percentage of GDP it's much smaller but the sheer scale of it is the same.In terms of private capital, there has never been anything like it, nothing close....and the application of it all is: Replacing human thinking. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The euro is rising after ECB sources cited by Reuters said:June hike "very likely" and policymakers were in broad agreementSome already advocated for a hike (Lagarde hinted at this)Several Governors think at least two hikes will be needed unless the war ends and Brent quickly dropsGovernors discussed the required amount of tighteningThe headline said the policymakers "see the first of several hikes in June" and that they're likely to hike "at least twice" unless there is a favorable resolution to the Iran war and oil prices drop. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's stock market heatmap reveals a dynamic and contrasting performance across various sectors. Notably, healthcare and communication services are spearheading the market upswing. Lilly (LLY) bursts forward with a substantial 8.82% gain, establishing itself as a decisive leader in the healthcare sector. Similarly, Google (GOOGL) ascends 5.52%, fortifying investor confidence in communication services.Conversely, technology faces significant pressure, particularly within the semiconductor space. Nvidia (NVDA) experiences a substantial decline of 4.26%, dragging the sector into negative territory alongside Microsoft (MSFT) which slips 4.96%.Market Mood and TrendsThe broader market sentiment is mixed, marked by optimism in healthcare and communication services, contrasted by technology's slump. While investor enthusiasm bolsters healthcare and communication, lingering concerns around technology's performance, particularly in semiconductors, persist. This dichotomy might suggest a cautious but opportunistic market stance, with investors weighing industry-specific news and potential regulatory impacts.Strategic Recommendations? Consider Diversification: To hedge against volatility in the technology sector, investors might explore expanding into healthcare and communication services, where positive trends prevail.? Monitor Semiconductor Developments: Given the downward trend in the semiconductor industry, particularly with NVDA, staying informed on sector-specific news could offer timely insights for strategic adjustments.? Capitalize on Growth Sectors: With Google and Lilly showcasing robust performance, these sectors could offer promising growth avenues. Investors should assess their longer-term growth potential against the backdrop of market volatility.In navigating these market dynamics, diversification and timely information can be pivotal strategies for minimizing risk while seizing opportunities. For ongoing updates and in-depth analyses of the evolving market landscape, visit InvestingLive.com for the latest insights. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD—like the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDCAD—is trading right at a key technical crossroads, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages converged near 0.7159. That level is acting as the barometer for buyers and sellers.Over the last several hours, price action has chopped above and below that area—classic behavior for a market lacking directional conviction. When you see this kind of back-and-forth around converged MAs, it’s a sign of a non-trending, “Three’s a Crowd” type environment (price and the 100/200 hour MA all near or at the same level), where compression often precedes the next momentum move.Looking at the broader structure, the pair has been largely confined within a 0.7100 to 0.7200 range since early April. There was a brief upside break on April 17 that extended to 0.72204, but that move quickly failed, with momentum fading after just a few hourly bars—pulling price right back into the range.So what needs to happen next?For buyers to take control: They need to hold above the 0.7159 MA cluster and build momentum toward the 0.7200 ceiling. A break above that level opens the door for a retest of 0.72204, and a move through there would shift the bias more firmly to the upside. For sellers to take control: They need to get and stay below 0.7159. Doing so would tilt the bias lower and have traders targeting the 0.7100–0.7110 support zone. A break below that area opens the door for a move toward the 38.2% retracement at 0.7072, followed by the 50% midpoint at 0.7026. Bottom line: The market is in a holding pattern, but not for long. The 0.7159 level is the line in the sand—and the next sustained move away from that zone should define the next directional play. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The White House is preparing markets for a prolonged squeeze on Iran. Under the plan being weighed, the US would maintain its naval blockade on Iranian ports while leaning on allies to raise the cost of Tehran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a senior administration official told the AP. Trump is reviewing multiple diplomatic and policy options, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.The backdrop is ugly for energy markets. The strait has been effectively blocked for two months, US gasoline averages have hit $4.23 a gallon — the highest in nearly four years — and Brent surged to $120 per barrel on Wednesday. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG normally moves through the passage, and the disruption is now feeding through to broader supply chains, though some of the missing oil has been redirected through a Saudi east-west pipeline.Tehran's offer, conveyed via Pakistan, would reopen the strait if Washington lifts the blockade and ends the war — but parks nuclear talks until after a settlement. CNN reported Trump is unlikely to accept, with sources saying lifting the blockade without addressing Tehran's nuclear programme would erode US leverage. Trump confirmed as much to Axios, saying the blockade is more effective than the bombing and that Iran is "choking like a stuffed pig."The math favours patience on both sides, for now. Iranian crude loadings have collapsed from 2.1 million bpd pre-blockade to 567,000 bpd, per Kpler, but Rapidan Energy estimates Tehran has at least 26 days of storage runway and is prepared to hold out for months.Some US government officials continue to believe that Iran risks long-term damage to its oil reservoirs in a shut-in scenario but I struggle to believe that thinking. If it comes to that, Iran could simply pump the oil into the desert rather than risk its long-term prosperity.Trump met energy executives Tuesday to discuss cushioning consumers and the market hated that. The longer the blockade holds, the more the crude curve has to price a structural premium — not a transient one.WTI is down $1.49 to $105.44 today after rising over $110 earlier. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In yesterday’s post, I flagged the 1.3709–1.3715 area as a key upside target (see: USDCAD moves to new session highs. Extends above 1.3700 and looks toward 1.3715), and the market delivered—but only partially. The high reached 1.3710, right into the lower end of that swing area, before sellers leaned and pushed the price back lower. The inability to extend above that ceiling kept the upside in check.On the downside, the late North American session saw a move lower that found support at the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3666. Buyers leaned against that level—defining risk—and pushed the pair higher. That same playbook repeated in the early Asian-Pacific session with another successful retest and bounce.However, following the sharp move lower in USDJPY today, broader dollar selling finally pushed USDCAD below those converged MAs, but momentum stalled near 1.3650. Since then, price has rotated back higher and is now trading just above the 100-hour MA (1.3662) and 200-hour MA (1.3665), with the current price near 1.3669.So where do we stand?Technically, the converged moving averages signal a non-trending, consolidation phase—your classic “three’s a crowd” setup. That view is reinforced by the repeated failure to break above the 1.3709–1.3715 ceiling, while on the downside, sellers also failed to sustain momentum below the 1.3620–1.3630 swing area earlier this week.That leaves us with a defined range between 1.3620 and 1.3715, with the 100/200-hour MAs near 1.3664 acting as the barometer for buyers and sellers.The market is coiling.Buyers had their shot yesterday and failed. Sellers had their opportunity earlier this week and couldn’t follow through.Now traders wait for the next shove—with momentum—to break the stalemate.Below is the infograph of the key technical points of interest: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

So there was a question about whether the move in the yen was due to the strong verbal intervention today, a rate check or actual intervention and it looks like we got our answer.A report in Nikkei says the Ministry of Finance intervened in the FX market to buy the yen (presumably via selling USD/JPY).Finance Minister Katayama issued a warning after yen breached 160 to dollar. We are getting closer to taking decisive step in FX market, he said.The BOJ held rates at 0.75% this week, in line with expectations, but the details tilted mildly hawkish at first glance. The quarterly outlook included a notable upward revision to inflation alongside a downgrade to growth, reflecting the economic drag from the US-Iran conflict. More importantly for FX markets, three board members dissented in favor of a rate hike — an unusually strong signal that briefly lifted the yen.That move didn’t last.Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone in the press conference, effectively dampening the impact of the dissent. He emphasized the need for more time to assess how geopolitical developments filter through to Japan’s economy and underscored that underlying inflation remains slightly below the 2% target. While the BoJ still expects inflation to settle around 2% in the second half of 2026, Ueda was explicit about the uncertainty around timing, noting there is no clear horizon for the next hike.That combination — distant normalization and near-term hesitation — is what’s keeping the yen under pressure. In addition, the war in Iran looks like a stalemate with the US turning to a siege and that's spike oil prices. Japan is a major energy importer and $120 brent is a big problem in regards to their terms of trade. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Wage tracker indicates easing labor costsSurveys indicate a rise in other costsIndicators of underlying inflation have changed little in recent monthsShort-term inflation expectations have moved upHigh energy costs make firms and households reluctant to investSupply chains coming under pressureEconomy was showing momentum before current turbulenceThe headlines from Lagarde's press conference confirm what the statement hinted at — the ECB is sitting on its hands but the risk balance has shifted under its feet. Rates held at 2.15% on the main refi, 2.00% on the deposit, exactly as priced. The euro initially sold off on the no-pre-commitment language, but Lagarde's tone is doing some lifting on the other side.The "favourable starting point provides some cushioning" framing is important. Lagarde is telling markets that the euro area entered this shock with inflation near target and a resilient economy, so the ECB has runway before it has to react. That's a way of buying time without committing to anything."Households in solid financial position" and "labour demand has cooled further" are running in opposite directions narratively — balance sheets are fine, but the labour market is loosening. The wage tracker pointing to easing labour costs is the disinflationary anchor she keeps coming back to, and it's the single biggest reason the ECB can credibly stay on hold rather than getting forced into a hike.Fiscal guidance — "responses should be temporary, targeted, tailored" — is the standard ECB plea to governments not to muddy the disinflation path with broad energy subsidies. Worth noting because if European governments do go big on fiscal support to cushion the energy hit, that changes the inflation math and the ECB knows it.The euro kneejerk was lower on the statement as there was some thinking they would highlight a June hike more explicitly. Pricing on that hike is at 76%. Naturally, the ECB wants to see what happens in the next six weeks before committing. Hopefully the war ends soon and it's notable that pricing is positive today.From the Q&A:Did debate hiking at lengthDecision was unanimous to holdMade an informed decision based on insufficient infoThose hawkish lines led to some small bids in the euro.Suggests that six weeks will be enough time to assess and make an informed choice This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.1%Canada's economy expanded 0.2% in February, matching expectations and extending the goods-side rebound that has now driven growth for two consecutive months. The headline masks a more interesting story underneath: manufacturing roared back to life with its biggest monthly gain since January 2023.Manufacturing jumped 1.8% in February, with durable goods leading the charge at +3.6%. The standout was machinery manufacturing, up a chunky 8.7% on strength in industrial and metalworking machinery, with higher exports doing the heavy lifting. Transportation equipment manufacturing rebounded 5.5% after January's 7.0% drop, as Ontario auto plants came back online following model-change and retooling shutdowns. Motor vehicle manufacturing alone surged 20.4%, riding the wave of higher US production demand.The auto story carried through to wholesale trade, which rose 0.9% as motor vehicle and parts wholesalers gained 6.1%. Transportation and warehousing tacked on 1.2%, with truck transportation logging its largest gain since March 2021 — a clean read on goods movement broadening out beyond just autos.Mining and oil and gas added another 0.4%, with conventional crude in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador picking up the slack from oil sands maintenance shutdowns in Alberta. Metal ore mining jumped 2.7% as copper exports climbed.The drag came from the public sector, down 0.3% on broad weakness across public administration, education, and health care. Arts and entertainment cratered 2.5%, but that's pure noise — the NHL's two-week Olympic break for Milano-Cortina did the damage and reverses out next month.The advance estimate has March essentially flat, leaving Q1 GDP tracking at +0.4%. That's a respectable handoff into a quarter where tariff uncertainty has been the dominant macro story. The pull-forward dynamic likely flattered February's manufacturing and trade numbers — something to watch as the data rolls forward and the front-running fades. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior week 214K revised to 215KIniital jobless claims 189K vs 215K estimate4 week moving average 207.5K vs 211.00 last week Continuing claims 1.785M vs 1.815M estimate. Prior 1.808M4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.797M vs 1.809MThe largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 18 were in New York (+2,885), California (+1,590), Tennessee (+1,562), Kentucky (+1,179), and South Carolina (+1,115), The largest decreases were in New Jersey (-4,280), Pennsylvania (-2,742), Virginia (-1,528), Wisconsin (-1,248), and Indiana (-1,150)There was a spike low in Septmeber 2022 at 190K for the initial jobs claims. Other than that it looks like 1968. In early November of 1968 the number reached 181K. For the continuing claims looks like the level is the lowest since April 2024.The bottom line is the job market is not weak. Now there are winners and losers even in the AI universe. For the buildout, that is likely very good. From the productivity advantage from AI, it is putting people out of work.Fewer layoffs sound good, but it not so good with higher inflation. The PCE did increase by 0.7% and the YoY moved up 3.5%. The core PCE is up 3.2% vs 3.0% last month. That keeps the Fed out of the picture. Strong jobs data can support stocks, but it also delays rate-cut hopes. Which do you want? Kevin Warsh will have a difficult time cutting rates. The Nasdaq is up 185 points. the S&P is up 38 points. TThe down is up 312 point a implied by the futures ahead of the open. Those levels are off pre-market highs. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Final Q4 GDP was +0.5%Consumer spending (PCE): +1.6%GDP final sales (excluding inventories) +1.6% vs +0.3% priorGDP price index (GDP deflator): +3.6% vs +3.8% expectedCore PCE (excluding food & energy): +4.3% vs +4.1% expectedBusiness investment (nonresidential fixed investment): Contributions to GDP in percentage points: Government +0.30 vs -1.03 prior Net exports -0.40 vs -0.08 prior Inventories +0.35 vs +0.28 prior Fixed investment +0.70 vs +0.28 prior Services +1.25 vs +1.45 prior Goods +0.10 vs -0.02 priorThe U.S. economy grew at a 2.0% annualized pace in Q1 2026, a notable rebound from the soft 0.5% print in Q4 2025 — but the headline flatters a release that warrants closer scrutiny on both the growth and inflation sides.The composition tells the real story. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — the cleanest read on underlying demand — rose 2.5%, up from 1.8%. That's encouraging. But peel back the layers and the quarter looks heavily distorted by trade flows and one-offs. Both exports and imports surged, with computers, peripherals, and parts leading the way on both sides of the ledger. That's the fingerprint of pre-tariff front-running, not organic demand. Equipment investment got a similar lift from information processing — read: the AI capex story is still alive, but some of this is inventory being pulled forward through customs.BEA explicitly flagged that the equipment increase "primarily reflected an increase in information processing equipment (notably, computers and peripheral equipment)".The contribution of intellectual property and software development was +0.7 percentage points and the contribution from information processing equipment was +0.8 pp. That's mostly AI capex and yesterday I tried to put into perspective the staggaring spending right now on AI in the United States.Government spending bounced back sharply, led by federal nondefense compensation. Anyone reading this as a fiscal impulse should pause: this is largely the mechanical reversal of the Q4 shutdown drag. Take it as noise, not signal.The inflation numbers are where this release gets uncomfortable. Headline PCE jumped to 4.5% from 2.9%. Core PCE printed 4.3% versus 2.7% prior. That is a serious hot read, and the gap between gross domestic purchases prices (3.6%) and PCE (4.5%) suggests tariff pass-through is finally hitting consumer baskets. The Fed cannot ignore a 160 basis point jump in core in a single quarter, regardless of how the tariff legal saga shakes out.The takeaway: 2.0% growth with 4.3% core inflation is not a goldilocks print — it's stagflation-adjacent. The IEEPA refund saga and tariff distortions will keep muddying the data through Q2. Markets cheering the growth number should look twice at the deflator. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 2.8%PCE m/m +0.7% vs +0.7% expectedPrior +0.4%Full report hereCore PCE (excluding food & energy):Core y/y +3.2% vs +3.2% expectedPrior was +3.0%Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expPrior +0.4%Consumer spending and income for February:Personal income +0.6% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month -0.1% (revised to 0.0%)Personal spending +0.9% vs +0.9% expected. Prior month +0.5% (revised to +0.6%)Real personal spending +0.2% vs +0.1% prior (revised to +0.3%)The inflation figures are all as expected, so there's nothing to see there. With Core PCE now well above 3.0%, you can see why some FOMC policymakers wanted to drop the easing bias.The Fed has been missing its 2% target since 2021 and the reluctance to adopt a clear hawkish bias kept the market in a dovish reaction function. Financial conditions never really tightened enough to bring inflation sustainably back to target. Inflation continues to run around 3% and the US-Iran war is expected to add more upward pressure.We also got the US jobless claims data at the same time and well, they are pointing to a reacceleration in the labour market. The US Employment Cost Index for Q1 has also surprised to the upside coming in at 0.9% vs 0.7% in the prior quarter.Following all the data release, US interest rate futures slightly increased odds of a rate hike by the end of 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The JPY is the currency of the day after Japanese officials, including the finance minister, signaled they are closely monitoring FX moves for potential intervention. That came as the USDJPY pushed to new 2026 highs above 160.00—approaching levels last seen in 2024 and, before that, the 1980s.That warning shot mattered.After briefly breaking above the well-defined 158.00–160.00 range yesterday, the pair has sharply reversed lower today—falling back through the range and flipping the bias. What looked like a bullish breakout has quickly turned into a failed break, with sellers now taking control.Technically, the move lower has taken the price back below: The 100-day moving average (157.25) The 38.2% retracement (157.49) of the February rally Momentum extended to a low of 155.57, just shy of the 61.8% retracement, before bouncing modestly. The pair is currently trading near the 50% midpoint at 156.50, which is acting as a near-term pivot.Key levels now define the battlefield:Resistance: 157.25–157.50 (100-day MA + 38.2% retracement) Support: 155.50 (near today’s low / 61.8%) Pivot: 156.50 (50% midpoint) In Europe, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England left rates unchanged. EURUSD and GBPUSD initially moved higher in sympathy with the weaker USD tone versus the JPY, but technical levels are now doing the heavy lifting.For EURUSD, the rally stalled at the 200-hour moving average (1.1719), where sellers leaned and pushed the pair back lower. The price is now chopping around the 100-day and 100-hour MAs near 1.1707, keeping the pair in a neutral, indecisive zone:Below 1.1707: Opens the door toward the 200-day MA at 1.1675Above 1.1719: Shifts the bias back to the upside For GBPUSD, the pair has broken above both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3510, turning that zone into a key barometer:Above 1.3510: Buyers in control Below 1.3510: Sellers regain the edge Bottom line: The USDJPY failed breakout is the headline—and a reminder that when intervention risk enters the picture, technical breaks can reverse quickly. The focus now shifts to whether sellers can build on that momentum, while EURUSD and GBPUSD remain more range-bound, trading off key moving average levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Every beginner trader goes through the same cycle.If you've spent any time learning to trade, you've probably done this: you opened your charting platform, added a moving average, then a second one, then an RSI, a MACD, maybe some Bollinger Bands for good measure, and ended up staring at a chart that told you absolutely nothing.That experience is nearly universal among beginner traders. And it's almost always what sends them down a path of mounting confusion, second-guessing, and eventually, avoidable losses.Here's the uncomfortable truth: the problem isn't lack of effort. It's that most beginners are taught to trade using tools designed to describe what price already did, rather than learning to read what price is actually doing in real time.The real language of markets is price itself.Every candlestick on a chart is a record of a decision made by real buyers and sellers. The patterns they form, the levels they respect, and the structures they build over time reveal the underlying psychology of the market, if you know how to read it.That's the foundation of technical analysis done properly. Not a collection of indicators. Not a set of shortcuts. A systematic, objective framework for understanding where price has been, where it's likely to go, and, critically, where your risk is if you're wrong.Introducing Essentials of Technical AnalysisEssentials of Technical Analysis, led by analyst and trader Giuseppe Dellamotta at investingLive Academy, is designed precisely for traders who are ready to move beyond the noise and develop a professional approach to reading markets.In just three hours, the course covers the full framework: identifying bullish and bearish market structures, focusing on an objective understanding of price action, applying proven technical analysis tools to find high-probability entry and exit zones, and implementing strict risk management rules, the discipline that separates traders who last from those who don't.The course spans four structured lessons. The first reframes what technical analysis actually is: not a prediction machine, but a probability-based approach to managing risk in the face of uncertainty. The second dives into chart patterns, teaching students to classify formations as reversal signals, continuation shapes, or range-bound zones. The third introduces the most essential indicators, presented with a strong emphasis on using fewer tools, not more. And the final lesson maps out the transition from theory to real-world execution, with an emphasis on back-testing as the cornerstone of objective self-improvement.The course includes 23 videos (plus a bonus video with practical back-testing using all the concepts presented in the course), three progress checkpoints, and a graded challenge, all structured to move at a pace that sticks.Who this is forIf you're new to trading and feeling overwhelmed by the volume of information out there, this course offers something rare: a clear, structured starting point. One that doesn't add to the noise, but cuts through it. Over 100 students have already completed it, giving it a 4.9 out of 5 rating, a reflection of how well the content translates theory into practical, usable knowledge.Technical analysis is not about predicting the future. It's about stacking probabilities in your favour, managing your risk rigorously, and making decisions based on data rather than gut feeling. Essentials of Technical Analysis teaches you to do exactly that, and it starts with learning to read a chart the way the market actually speaks.Ready to simplify your approach and build a real trading framework? Enroll in Essentials of Technical Analysis at investingLive Academy today, complete the course and get your certificate.Stay tuned for the next course on fundamental analysis! [START LEARNING & GET CERTIFIED]AboutThis course is delivered by Giuseppe Dellamotta, Market Analyst at investingLive. Giuseppe is a market analyst and trader specialised in global macro covering FX, equity, bond, and commodity markets. His approach isn't shaped by traditional academia but forged through real-time market experience and a hedge fund level training. He specializes in identifying macro trends early, often taking contrarian positions that challenge the consensus. His goal is to offer independent insight and identify signals through the noise. He's been a prominent financial markets analyst and writer for ForexLive.com, now rebranded as investingLive.com. This article was written by investingLive at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.7%HICP +2.9% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.6%Headline annual inflation continues to run up as a result of surging energy prices and that is the case across every country at the moment. Of note, there is a sharp rise in the prices of unregulated energy products (+9.9%) and regulated energy products (+5.7%) as well.When looking at core annual inflation though, that is seen slowing from 1.9% in March to 1.6% in April. So, that's one bright spot for now. But as higher energy prices continue to be more sticky, expect that to have a more profound impact on core prices down the road. That especially if the Middle East conflict continues to drag on for longer.In any case, the overall Eurozone reading here is the more pertinent report to focus on at this time. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.6%Core CPI +2.2% vs +2.2 y/y expectedPrior +2.3%Well, the headline reading is the highest since September 2023 and it reaffirms the impact of surging energy prices. When looking at core annual inflation, we're still not seeing any spillovers yet as the reading there is softer than it was in March even.Looking at the breakdown, food price inflation was seen at 2.5% with energy price inflation rising the most on a yearly basis by 10.9%. Services inflation also continues to keep sticky at 3.0% even if down from 3.2% previously. At the balance, that is still keeping core prices above the 2% threshold and it's still not quite ideal for the ECB even if the Middle East conflict were to not happen.But now, the picture has completely changed because of the US-Iran war. The prudent step by the ECB is to stay on the sidelines but they're not in an enviable spot in making a choice as we look to June.Circling back to the report, the monthly estimates also reaffirm the jump in energy prices mostly with that being up 3.0%. Food price inflation was only up 0.5% on the month with services inflation up 1.1% in April. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.