The USD is lower but off the lowest level. EURUSD TechnicalsEURUSD moved higher in the Asian session, reclaiming the 100-hour MA at 1.1799, but the rally stalled near strong resistance at 1.1830–1.1832 — the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range (1.1830) and the falling 200-hour MA (1.1832).The failure to break that ceiling shifted momentum back to sellers, pushing the pair below the 100-hour MA and down to support at 1.1765–1.1778, where buyers stepped in.Price is now back near 1.1800, keeping the market in a tight battle zone.Support: 1.1765–1.1778 Resistance: 1.1830–1.1832A break on either side should determine the next move.USDJPY Technicals:USDJPY moved sharply lower following the weekend tariff news, breaking below its 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement at 154.320, signaling a shift in short-term momentum to the downside.However, the selloff stalled ahead of the next key target — the 200-hour moving average at 153.82 — as downside momentum faded. That hesitation allowed buyers to step back in, pushing price back above the 100-hour MA and up toward a confluence area near 154.96, where the 100-day moving average aligns with the 50% retracement. Sellers leaned against that resistance and forced a rotation lower.The pair is now trading back near the 100-hour moving average, putting the focus squarely on this pivot.A move below keeps downside pressure in play toward 153.82. A move back above 154.96 shifts bias higher again.GBPUSD Technicals:GBPUSD fell last week to its key 200-day moving average at 1.34426. Although price briefly dipped below that level, downside momentum stalled and sellers could not press the break. That failure sparked a rebound, with price climbing back toward the falling 100-hour moving average.Today, the pair pushed above the 100-hour MA, but gains were capped by resistance in a defined swing zone between 1.3526 and 1.3536. Sellers leaned against that area and rotated price back below the 100-hour MA, targeting the 1.3400 swing level.Since then, the back-and-forth trade has continued, with price once again reclaiming the 100-hour moving average. That level now serves as the key barometer.Above the 100-hour MA: bias tilts more bullish. Below the 100-hour MA: sellers regain short-term control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.7%Factory orders ex-transport +1.0% vs +0.2% priorRevisions to durable goods orders:Orders -1.4% vs -1.4% prelimEx defense -2.4% vs -2.5% prelimNon-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.8% vs +0.6% prelimThis is mostly in-line but note the small improvement in core US orders. It's tough to find a signal in this series as it's been volatile and there's been no trend.In September, total factory orders edged up 0.2% to $614.9 billion, following a downwardly revised 1.3% gain in August. Durable goods orders rose 0.5%, led by a second consecutive month of gains in transportation equipment. Nondurable goods orders were essentially flat. Excluding transportation, orders rose a modest 0.2%, while excluding defense they were unchanged — suggesting limited organic momentum outside of lumpy defense and aircraft contracts.October brought a 1.2% decline to $607.4 billion, erasing the prior month's gains and matching market expectations. The drop was driven by a 6.5% plunge in transportation equipment as both nondefense and defense aircraft orders cratered. Nondurable goods orders also slipped 0.3%, led by weakness in petroleum and coal products. Excluding transportation, orders dipped 0.1%.November delivered a sharp rebound, with factory orders surging 2.7% to $621.6 billion — the largest monthly increase in six months and well above the 1.6% consensus. Durable goods orders jumped 5.3%, powered by a 14.7% spike in transportation equipment as nondefense aircraft orders nearly doubled. Nondurable goods orders were flat. Core orders excluding transportation rose a more measured 0.2%. Total shipments slipped 0.1% to $606.3 billion, while unfilled orders climbed 1.4% to $1,513.5 billion — up in 16 of the last 17 months — and inventories edged up 0.1% to $948.4 billion. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio rose to 7.04 from 6.93, and the inventories-to-shipments ratio held steady at 1.56. Year-over-year, factory orders were up 5.4% in November, underscoring that despite monthly volatility, the broader manufacturing order book remained on a positive trajectory. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. stock market today presents a mixed picture, with some sectors surprising investors while others face pressure under unexpected dynamics. By examining a comprehensive heatmap of sectors, we see varying levels of performance impacting trading decisions and sentiments.? Sector OverviewTechnology Sector: This sector is enduring a challenging day. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT) is down by 1.46%, with similarly negative sentiment surrounding Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR), dropping by 2.62% and 4.23% respectively. This downturn could reflect ongoing pressures or investor caution towards tech. Semiconductors: Contrarily, semiconductor stocks are witnessing notable gains. Nvidia (NVDA) is leading with a robust 1.99% increase, garnering optimism among investors focusing on tech hardware.Consumer Cyclical:Amazon (AMZN) declines by 1.07%, possibly due to external market pressures or profit-taking from recent highs, whereas Apple (AAPL) holds steady, rising 0.49%.Healthcare: This sector shows solid traction. Eli Lilly (LLY) is a standout performer with a significant 4.20% uptick, reinforcing investor confidence in healthcare amidst broader market volatility.Financials: Mixed performances here, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) slightly down by 0.27% and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) inching up by 0.21%, reflecting diverse investor outlooks within financials.? Market Mood and TrendsThe current market mood reveals apprehension in technology sectors contrasted by optimism in select semiconductors and healthcare. Tech’s decline might stem from ongoing economic uncertainties or unfavorable earnings forecasts, while encouraging financial signals bolster semiconductors. Enthusiasm in healthcare indicates a strategic shift towards defensive sectors, potentially safeguarded from economic swings.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should remain cautious with their tech investments, considering potential further volatility. It might be prudent to capitalize on gains within semiconductors and healthcare, redirecting focus to sectors showing resilient strength. Keeping a diversified portfolio, incorporating both defensive and growth stocks, could safeguard against sudden market shifts. As always, visit InvestingLive.com for more insights and in-depth analysis to navigate these trends. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Everything about how Europe has negotiated tariffs has been a disaster. They were the one jurisdiction with the market size and diversification to stand up to US tariffs and they folded in pathetic fashion despite the likelihood -- now proven -- that the US Supreme Court would strike down tariffs.Now they want a do-over and, luckily their terrible deal with the US hasn't been ratified by European Parliament so they will get it. However now they've irked the US and missed their best opportunity to hit back in a trade war. So this will turn into another mess.The schedule was for a vote Tuesday and European MP Lange says they will now meet Wednesday.Officials are taking a soft line, saying they want 'clarification' while they pause. Well, the Supreme Court already gave them clarification and they don't have to worry about higher US tariffs now that Trump has maxed out his 150 day tariff authority (which is also possibly illegal). Yes, they will start with national security investigations for other tariffs but Europe simply doesn't need to negotiate.Trump is trying to beat back Europe with threats like this (just issued), but it's a bluff, at least in the short term:Any Country that wants to “play games” with the ridiculous supreme court decision, especially those that have “Ripped Off” the U.S.A. for years, and even decades, will be met with a much higher Tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to. BUYER BEWARE!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPMaybe this is the moment that Europe finds some courage and stands up for the trading system that it built over decades but I'm not holding my breath. The euro is up 18 pips to 1.1798 as the market largely ignores the tariff noise. European stock markets are also largely flat today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Business confidence in Belgium dropped significantly in February, erasing the modest gains seen in January and falling back to levels last seen in May 2025, according to the National Bank of Belgium's latest survey released today.The overall synthetic curve fell to -13.7 from -8.8 in January, a 4.9-point decline that underscores the fragile nature of the brief uptick recorded last month. The underlying smoothed curve, which strips out short-term noise to capture the broader economic trend, continued its downward trajectory.The deterioration was broad-based, with all sectors except construction posting weaker readings. The trade sector was hit hardest, with its indicator plunging 12.3 points to -17.9. Demand expectations and forecasts of orders to suppliers — which had shown notable improvement in January — reversed sharply and then some. That said, traders still expect a marginal increase in headcount over the next three months, which offers a small silver lining.Manufacturing wasn't far behind, dropping 6.1 points to -17.1. Business leaders in the sector reported deterioration across the board: order books, demand expectations, employment outlook, and stock level assessments all worsened materially compared to January.Business-related services fell for a third straight month, slipping to -4.3 from -2.7. Firms remain downbeat on current and future activity levels, though they do see market demand picking up — a disconnect worth watching.Construction was the lone holdout, with its reading barely budging at -7.1 versus -6.8 previously. Equipment use and total orders improved on a trend basis, but seasonal adjustments painted a less favourable picture, and firms expect demand to weaken over the next quarter.Key data points from the February survey:Overall synthetic curve: -13.7 (prev. -8.8)Manufacturing: -17.1 (prev. -11.0)Trade: -17.9 (prev. -5.6)Business-related services: -4.3 (prev. -2.7)Building industry: -7.1 (prev. -6.8) This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Jan jobs data was a surprise and may be appropriate to hold rates if it continues in FebAlso possible that Jan jobs data was noise and would still argue for a cut in March if Feb jobs data is weakIt is possible labor market has pivoted to a more sound footing after a weak 2025Consider underlying inflation excluding the impact of tariffs to be close to 2%"No dismissing" weak job creation of 2025 but also true that economic activity has been stronger than expectedConsider his support for a March cut a "coin flip" that will rely heavily on Feb jobs dataSmoothing through impact of gov't shutdown, expect GDP will have grown around 2% from Q4 2025 through Q1 2026 with consumer spending still solid and industrial activity picking upThis guy has sufficiently debased himself and is trying to pivot back to being a serious economist after he was left at the alter in the decision for Fed Chair.In any case, his March vote will surely be immaterial as market pricing for a cut at the March 18 meeting is just 1.2% and doesn't rise to 50% until June when a new Fed chair takes over.More:There are reasons including AI to think the hiring may remain weakHard to interpret recent initial jobless claims dataAI is diffusing so fast it is easier to see what jobs might go away before it is clear what jobs may be createdCompanies are still trying to determine how AI may reduce labor demand, or similarly, allow workers to be repurposedThe growth of productivity in the past year or so is not from AIChanges in working arrangements post-COVID may be adding to productivity, among other thingsAll of the data for the past year shows that labor demand is falling more than labor supplyWatching job vacancy rate, if that continues to fall it would be unusual if the unemployment rate did not riseUSD/JPY is down 44 pips to 154.63. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:The biggest winners and losers from the latest US tariffs shiftUS customs say will halt collection of IEEPA tariffs on 24 FebruaryUS president Trump: The Supreme Court tariffs ruling has given me more power than beforeEU reportedly to press pause on US trade deal approval amid latest tariffs kerfuffleIs this finally the time for gold to reach new record highs after the tariffs ruling?US-Iran risk keeps oil prices underpinned; third round of talks on Thursday in focusBOE's Taylor: Become more reassured that we are proceeding towards inflation normalisationLagarde reportedly receives six-figure BIS stipend despite ECB ban on third-party paymentsGermany February Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 88.4 expectedItaly January final CPI +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelimMarkets:Dollar recovers as traders continue to digest tariffs uncertaintyJPY leads, AUD lags on the dayEuropean indices mixed, US futures lower as Trump threatens to use 'licenses' in place of tariffsDAX down 0.6%, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%Gold up 1.1% to $5,161, silver up 2.8% to $86.98US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.07%WTI crude oil up 0.6% to $66.67Bitcoin down 2.0% to $66,270The session was one marked by caution as markets are still digesting what to make do of the US Supreme Court tariffs decision on Friday last week. With the Trump administration now needing to seize tariffs under the IEEPA, trade uncertainty remains heightened after having announced blanket 15% tariffs for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.And late on in the session, Trump came out to threaten 'licenses' in place of tariffs to punish trade partners instead. Well, it remains to be seen how that will work out. However, we are seeing some modest market reactions in response.The dollar held weaker throughout to start the day but is now recovering some ground. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1780 after hovering around 1.1810-30 earlier in the session. Meanwhile, USD/JPY may be down 0.1% to 154.90 currently but that is well off the lows for the day at 154.00 earlier.Despite the dollar recovery, precious metals remain bid with gold up 1.1% to $5,161 currently. Meanwhile, silver is up nearly 3% to $86.98 as the erratic and uncertain trade policy approach by the US administration reinvigorates the precious metals trade.As for risk sentiment, there were some tentative recovery signs early on but that has been dashed after Trump's latest threat.S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% after having recovered to be marginally down by 0.1% at one point during the session. In Europe, major indices are mostly lower amid a more mixed mood. The DAX is down 0.6% with CAC 40 down 0.2% on the day.In other markets, 10-year Treasury yields are staying pressured and down 1.4 bps to 4.07% while Bitcoin is struggling after a plunge in Asia and is still down 2% to $66,270 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

From the man himself:"The supreme court (will be using lower case letters for a while based on a complete lack of respect!) of the United States accidentally and unwittingly gave me, as President of the United States, far more powers and strength than I had prior to their ridiculous, dumb, and very internationally divisive ruling. For one thing, I can use Licenses to do absolutely “terrible” things to foreign countries, especially those countries that have been RIPPING US OFF for many decades, but incomprehensibly, according to the ruling, can’t charge them a License fee - BUT ALL LICENSES CHARGE FEES, why can’t the United States do so? You do a license to get a fee! The opinion doesn’t explain that, but I know the answer! The court has also approved all other Tariffs, of which there are many, and they can all be used in a much more powerful and obnoxious way, with legal certainty, than the Tariffs as initially used. Our incompetent supreme court did a great job for the wrong people, and for that they should be ashamed of themselves (but not the Great Three!). The next thing you know they will rule in favor of China and others, who are making an absolute fortune on Birthright Citizenship, by saying the 14th Amendment was NOT written to take care of the “babies of slaves,” which it was as proven by the EXACT TIMING of its construction, filing, and ratification, which perfectly coincided with the END OF THE CIVIL WAR. How much better can you do than that? But this supreme court will find a way to come to the wrong conclusion, one that again will make China, and various other Nations, happy and rich. Let our supreme court keep making decisions that are so bad and deleterious to the future of our Nation - I have a job to do. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP"I don't quite see how that is the case but I'd be happy to be enlightened. As summarised previously here, the Supreme Court applied the "major questions" doctrine and stated that the IEEPA does not grant Trump the authority to impose tariffs in a 6-3 decision.That now sees Trump having to pursue other avenues, invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a blanket 15% tariff for the next 150 days.After that, Trump will need Congress' approval to extend them - which is unlikely to work out. And even so, the Supreme Court can come back around again to stop him from conveniently trying to abuse a loophole of having to reissue the Section 122 tariffs every 150 days.As such, the next logical and likely step would be Trump needing to pursue tariffs under the pretext of "unfair trade practices". That calls for Section 301, which is a more surgical and tedious process in trying to enact tariffs. It requires the USTR to prove that other countries are acting "unreasonably" or "discriminatorily" towards the US in their trade practices.And as mentioned earlier:"The issue here is that there might be a bit of a gap as Section 301 investigations usually take 6 to 12 months to complete because they require public hearings and evidence-gathering. So if they aren't completed by around July or August, there will be a gap in which Trump may not be able to place tariffs as he pleases. So, there's that." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Services CPI has been slightly concerning in recent monthsServices CPI has not fallen as quickly or as far as hopedI am looking for service price inflation to normalise along with wage growth this yearI have become more reassured that we are proceeding towards inflation normalisation at a reasonable paceWeaker than expected productivity growth could be a risk to the outlook The jobs forecasts are converging on a pessimistic outlookRisks are shifting to lower inflation and higher unemploymentWe are approaching neutral level, not there yetTwo or three more cuts before neutralUS high tariff regime is here to stayBoE's Taylor voted to cut the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the last policy meeting because of "substantial forecast revision" to inflation and high-frequency indicators seeing inflation returning to target this year. He expected inflation expectations to moderate significantly due to easing inflation, softer price-wage dynamics and emerging slack. He added that he now places even more weight on the central and downside scenarios. He expects to reach the 3% neutral rate earlier than anticipated.As a reminder, the BoE surprised with a dovish hold at the last meeting as 4 members dissented for a rate cut versus 2 expected. Moreover, they changed the guidance in the statement from "the bank rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path" to "the bank rate is likely to be reduced further". Inflation forecasts were also revised substantially lower.Last week, the probabilities for a rate cut in March increased to 75% following the much weaker than expected UK labour market report on Tuesday and mostly benign UK CPI data on Wednesday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices rallied all the way back to the resistance around the 66.50 level after a report from Axios suggested that a war between the U.S. and Iran appeared increasingly likely. Traders hedged into the weekend risk driving prices higher. There was no escalation over the weekend, on the contrary, we got some positive signals with the Oman’s Foreign Minister confirming a third round of talks between the two parties on Thursday in Geneva. Oil prices eased consequently as the market reopened. The market expectation is still skewed towards some type of military intervention which keeps the geopolitical risk premium high. In fact, it was reported that the US military build-up in the region was the greatest since invasion of Iraq in 2003.Given Trump’s military build-up and escalated rhetoric, it may be difficult for him to de-escalate without Iran offering significant concessions on its nuclear program. If a military conflict were to break out, we would likely see oil prices skyrocket due to the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, especially in light of the recent military drills. We would likely need signs of US military withdrawal or a deal between US and Iran to see oil prices falling back towards the $60 price area. For now, the tensions will keep the market supported.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil rallied all the way back to the key 66.43 level. The momentum waned as US-Iran tensions eased a bit and the sellers stepped in to target a drop back into the support. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 70.50 level next. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to step in around the 66.43 level to target a drop into the 62.36 support, while the buyers will look for above the resistance to extend the rally into the 70.50 level next. We have also a mid-range support around the 64.14 level where aggressive dip-buyers could step in.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price slowly pulling back from the 66.43 resistance. We might be forming a bullish flag, but the price will need to break above the top trendline to confirm it. In that case, we can expect the buyers to pile in to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely continue to lean on the top trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into the 62.36 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we get the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we have the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The report says that the EU is set to put on hold the ratification process of its trade deal with the US after the latest changes to the US administration's tariffs policy. Adding that they will be seeking out more details from Washington on what their plans are with the new tariffs in place.I don't think comes as any surprise really. Even the UK, which has been disadvantaged from the change, has resigned to the fact that they will have to follow the blanket 15% tariffs applied in the new shift.If anything, I'd be more interested to see what happens to the deals struck between the US and the likes of Japan and South Korea. Both Asian countries pledged large investment commitments to the US in exchange for a supposedly "better" tariffs rate of around 15%. Right now, everyone and anyone else is put on a level playing field and they got that for free. So, is Japan and South Korea still going to pay up still?Circling back to the EU, the lower tariffs will not just have an impact on their direct dealings with the US. One of the biggest changes is that we're seeing US tariffs against China get reduced significantly, down from around 34-50% to just 15%. That's a material change and will have another big impact on the global trade environment in the short-term.Do remember that this 15% tariffs rate will only be applicable for 150 days. Will Chinese exporters seize this opportunity to flood US markets once again like they did before the April 2025 hit?If so, that will have a chain effect on trade dealings elsewhere and especially to Europe. That as China turned into arguably its most important ally in the second half of last year, vice versa, in helping each other to deal with the fallout from US tariffs. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

At the balance and at first glance, the latest developments should see a greater reduction in the overall average tariffs rate in the US. If so, that should eventually have a negative impact on price pressures and helps with the narrative of softening inflation and more Fed rate cuts. But again, it's a lot to take in as the news hit on Friday and with there still being a lot of uncertainty up in the air.Trump's reciprocal tariffs under the IEEPA is now deemed illegal. And the US customs will stop collecting said levies starting after midnight later today. The US president has already proceeded with his next step in invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. That sees a blanket 15% tariff being applied for the next 150 days.While some countries are definitely benefiting from the change, it's not equal for everyone. And at the end of it all, this seems like a tactic to stall for time as Trump pursues trade investigations under Section 301 next. It's a more surgical procedure to impose tariffs and it remains to be seen how it will all work out in the end.Wall Street cheered on the Supreme Court decision on Friday but US futures are looking more cautious today. S&P 500 futures may be off earlier lows but are still down 0.2% currently. Tech shares are lagging with Nasdaq futures down 0.3% while Dow futures are also down 0.2% for now.It's still early in the day and market players have a lot to digest in making sense of the latest tariffs shift above.And it's not just that mostly. The immediate response by Trump also signals that he is not going to easily let this go to pass. Taking that into consideration, it could mean more erratic and uncertain policy maneuvers that even we might not be able to think of at this time.The logical path seems to be the one laid out above as mentioned. But if we all know Trump and we definitely do by now, it is that sometimes the logical path is not always the preset course of action. So, there might still be some curveballs yet to deal with and that is keeping markets on edge in trying to make sense of the situation.The easy take is that this will all still culminate in a more bearish outlook for the dollar, one way or another. Poor policy management and erratic trade policy setting. That's never a good thing. And if not, lower tariffs means less threat to the inflation outlook. So, that helps with a envisaging lower price pressures in the US to allow for more rate cuts. Either way, a dollar negative.And if the consensus leans towards a stronger likelihood of the Fed cutting rates, that should be a risk positive at the end of it all. But right now, we're still in the eye of the storm. So, it is understandable for the market reaction to be one that leans more cautiously. We'll have to see what Trump might have up his sleeve next. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so it could be a positive. The dollar might stay on the backfoot for now amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picture has changed much. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD.GBP:On the GBP side, the probabilities for a rate cut in March increased to 75% following the much weaker than expected UK labour market report on Tuesday and mostly benign UK CPI data on Wednesday. The pound eventually fell to a new monthly low before bouncing following the US Supreme Court decision. As a reminder, the BoE surprised with a dovish hold at the last meeting as 4 members dissented for a rate cut versus 2 expected. Moreover, they changed the guidance in the statement from "the bank rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path" to "the bank rate is likely to be reduced further". GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD broke below the major trendline and bounced back to retest it. The sellers will likely step in around the broken trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the rebound into the downward trendline where the sellers will look for another short opportunity. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to step in around the broken trendline, while the buyers will look for an upside break to extend the gains into the downward trendline. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI data. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so it could be a positive. The dollar might stay on the backfoot for now amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picture has changed much. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD.EUR:On the EUR side, nothing has changed. As a reminder, the ECB held interest rates steady as widely expected at the last meeting and kept the same data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting guidance. The policymakers have eased the rhetoric on the euro recently after the currency dropped below the 1.20 level against the dollar. The focus remains on inflation as the central bank has repeatedly stated that it won’t respond to small or short-term deviations from the 2% target. The data for now has been positive with economic activity picking up and core inflation hovering just a bit above target.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD fell into a new monthly low last week but eventually bounced back following the US Supreme Court decision. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum. The price is now retesting the broken trendline where we have also a support zone around the 1.1805 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 1.1927 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 1.17 handle next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the support, while the sellers will look for a break lower. The red line define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the German CPI and the US PPI data. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.2%HICP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelimPrior +1.2%Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the details, services inflation is the one that is keeping higher at 2.5% last month. Meanwhile, goods price inflation is actually recording a -0.2% annual change. Overall, that leaves core annual inflation at 1.7% in Italy to start the year. And that's sort of the spot that the ECB wants to get inflation to as a whole for the region. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It will be a light week in terms of scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Monday, the U.S. will release factory orders m/m and on Tuesday attention will be on the U.K.'s Monetary Policy Report hearings and the U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing figures. Wednesday will bring inflation data from Australia while Thursday the focus will be the U.S. unemployment claims. Finally, on Friday, Japan will publish Tokyo core CPI y/y, Canada will release GDP m/m, and the U.S. will get the PPI m/m. Throughout the week, several FOMC members are also expected to deliver remarks. In the U.S., the consensus for Conference Board consumer confidence is 87.6, up from 84.5 previously. In the last print, the confidence fell to a post-pandemic low, driven by softer labor market signals, elevated living costs and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The most significant factor, however, was a deterioration in job perceptions. While this shift does not point to an outright pullback in spending, it suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, especially lower-income households, Wells Fargo analysts said. A modest improvement is likely for this week’s release, supported by a better-than-expected jobs report and softer inflation readings. However, concerns about tariffs, global political risks and affordability pressures remain unresolved and will impact household sentiment in the near term. In Australia, the consensus is for CPI y/y to ease from 3.8% to 3.7%. With trimmed mean CPI expected to hold at 3.3%, in line with consensus, a modest upside surprise is unlikely to materially shift the near-term RBA outlook. January is typically a softer month for prices. While headline inflation is expected to see only a monthly rise, seasonal adjustments suggest a firmer underlying pace. Even so, the annual rate is likely to edge lower, reflecting a slower start to the year compared with last January. Food prices are expected to remain a key source of pressure, driven by seasonal increases in fresh produce and non-alcoholic beverages. Health costs should also contribute to inflation, but electricity prices are likely to be the main driver, as the impact of cost-of-living rebates will fade and prices will revert to older levels. These pressures are expected to be partly offset by price declines for holiday travel and accommodation, fuel, clothing and communications, according to Westpac analysts. The market expects a rate hike in May, taking the cash rate to 4.10%, though risks appear skewed to the downside. Inflation pressures are increasingly concentrated in regulated and policy-driven components rather than market-based pricing, which limits the need for further action from the RBA. This week everyone will also pay close attention to the Tokyo CPI for February as it can give us clues about Japan's nationwide inflation trends. The consensus is for the y/y core CPI figure to drop from 2.0% to 1.7%. Underlying inflation is still above the BoJ's desired target, but the softer momentum suggests there isn't an urgent need to hike rates so the Bank might wait for clear evidence of sustained price pressures. The upcoming Shunto wage negotiations and the April CPI data will be key indicators for the policy outlook. In Canada, the consensus for GDP m/m is 0.1% versus 0.0% previously. GDP growth appears to have stalled in Q4 with output expected to be flat following a strong Q3. Much of the weakness stemmed from temporary disruptions in October and November, while December data suggest some stabilization, supported by a rebound in manufacturing and wholesale activity as auto production recovered, according to RBC analysts. That said, underlying momentum remains mixed. Manufacturing continues to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, housing activity softened toward year-end and retail sales showed limited growth. Overall, the quarter appears soft but broadly in line with the Bank of Canada’s expectations. In the U.S. the consensus for the core PPI m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.7% prior and for the PPI m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.5% previously. Softer than expected PPI could reinforce a disinflation narrative, while a stronger print could delay expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Despite the hawkish tone at the January FOMC meeting the market continues to price in two rate cuts until the end of the year. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Prior 87.6Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.3 expectedPrior 85.7Expectations 90.5 vs 90.3 expectedPrior 89.5; revised to 89.6The headline reading is a six-month high as German business morale picks up in the early stages of the new year. That comes alongside an improvement in both the current conditions and expectations/outlook index. The recent optimistic recovery in the German industry is definitely helping to provide a lift to broader sentiment.So far, it's all been quite good news out of the euro area to start the year. And this sort of reading exemplifies the optimistic turn we're seeing in the German economy especially. Stagflation fears had been a real concern at some point last year but perhaps there is the potential for things to turn around now.It's still a little early but if the industrial sector can keep it up, there's scope for Germany to really get out of the mud this year. But as seen with the recent trade debacle since Friday, US tariffs will prove to be a curveball on how things might progress in the months ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold got a boost on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The initial reaction saw gold coming under pressure but eventually the market turned around, and we reached a new monthly high as Trump imposed new tariffs under a different law. Overall, not much has changed on the tariff policy, these new developments just created some uncertainty in the short-term. USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so on net, it could be a positive. The market might remain supported amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picture has changed much. I would expect the gains to be pared back and the market to continue to consolidate. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could take gold prices to new highs or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a negative effect on the market. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold extended into a new monthly high after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs imposed on Liberation Day, and Trump re-imposed new tariffs under a different law. The price is still trading between the all-time high and the trendline, so there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe. We need to zoom in to see some more details.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the strong resistance zone around the 5100 level. If we get a retest of the resistance now turned support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the support to pile back in for a drop into the major upward trendline next. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a couple of trendlines that could act as support for the buyers as long as the current bullish momentum holds. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendlines with a defined risk below them to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for downside breaks to target new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

To recap, the biggest news hitting markets since Friday is the Supreme Court shooting down Trump's reciprocal tariffs from April last year. The 6-3 decision now sees those tariffs, enacted under the IEEPA, are deemed unconstitutional/illegal. As such, the US administration has to halt collecting duties related to the tariffs imposed through that.So, what's happening now?Trump has quickly moved on to pursue other avenues and the next step is having to enact blanket 15% tariffs for 150 days through Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.For some context, Section 122 is supposedly meant for having to deal with "fundamental international payments problems". It was created after former US president Nixon imposed a 10% global import surcharge in 1971. The idea behind Section 122 was more that it was supposed to act a safety net during the era of fixed exchange rates. But with global economies moving on from that to a floating exchange rate policy, this law has essentially become a relic of sorts.As for whether or not this will stand for much longer than 150 days, it's not likely. And I dived more into that in a separate discourse here.But for the meantime, let's take a look at who are the biggest winners and losers from the change to 15% blanket tariffs.Quintessentially, the biggest winners are those that drew the ire of Trump the most in the past year or so. And the two big names that stand out are China and India.Chinese exports to the US had been facing levies of around 34% to 50% since last year, so a drop to 15% is a much welcome reset in that sense. As for India, tariffs have risen to near 25% in the past month as both countries have failed to come close to settling on a deal. So, India is now paying up to 10% less levies on goods than they were a month ago.So, what can Trump do now about China and India on the trade front?Section 301 seems to be the next step but this is one that might take months on end to resolve, as it involves investigations, public hearings and evidence-gathering.But essentially, Trump will still push for heavy duties on China especially on tech, semiconductors, and maritime especially. Against India, it will be fighting back through digital taxes, pharmaceutical products, jewelry, as well as agricultural staples. So, look out for those targeted sectors to be hit as the US administration has to be more "surgical" in their approach next.So, who are the biggest losers when it comes to the latest change to 15% blanket tariffs?Ironically, it is those countries that have played ball with the US the most in the past year. And the biggest name of the lot is the UK.Before this latest change, they have successfully negotiated reciprocal tariffs of just 10% with the US. And in all likelihood, the latest tariffs shift here displaces the previous deal and so the UK will have to pay 15% levies instead. The British Chambers of Commerce estimates that the change will cost UK exporters roughly $4 billion.Besides that, the other two big losers of this change are Japan and South Korea. While technically both countries are seeing no change to their tariffs rate of 15%, they both had committed to hundreds of billions in US investments just to keep the general tariffs rate around that. Meanwhile, other countries are now handed a "free" 15% tariffs rate by default without needing to do so. Ouch. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the only highlight is going to be the German IFO survey. The IFO is correlated with the German Composite PMI given that they measure basically the same thing. The Business Climate index is expected to tick higher to 88.3 vs 87.6 prior, but whatever the data, the market reaction will likely be muted given no changes to economic or policy outlook.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we just have Fed's Waller giving a speech on economic outlook. He's one of the most respected governors and has also been a "leading indicator" for Fed's policy path. He's a dove, so if he keeps his usual stance, it's not going to change anything for the market. He's been the first focusing on labour market weakness and the first calling for rate cuts. His views were seen as politically-driven but eventually it turned out that he was right on just about everything.Right now, he's still sceptical about labour market stabilisation that other members are touting following the recent jobs data. If he were to support the stabilisation view, then it would be taken as a change in stance to neutral and would trigger a hawkish repricing.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS11:00 GMT/06:00 ET - BoE's Taylor (dove - voter)13:00 GMT/08:00 ET - Fed's Waller (dove - voter)17:30 GMT/12:30 ET - ECB's President Lagarde (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.