Prior +0.2%GDP Y/Y +0.8% vs +0.9% expectedPrior +1.2%These lower than expected figures further complicate ECB's decision but points more towards a neutral stance with a slightly hawkish bias in case the war drags on for several more months. Bear in mind that GDP is expected to contract further in Q2 if the war extends into summer.The Core CPI released at the same time eased further to 2.2% vs 2.3% prior. The economic data leading up to today's ECB decision supports more a patient approach rather than an outright hawkish leaning as expected by the market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

I don't envy being in the ECB's position right now. The central bank already had to pause on rate cuts during the summer last year as inflation pressures stopped easing, especially in Germany. A modest economic rebound in the final quarter of last year helped to vindicate their decision to do so but now, everything feels like it is thrown out the window.As the Middle East conflict drags on, the disruption to the energy market and surging oil and gas prices are major issues for the European economy. The immediate impact is on the inflation front, which we are already seeing early signs of that. But the next part, will be the kind of economic hit and demand destruction that higher energy prices will cause on households.So, is the ECB supposed to proceed with a straightforward response of raising key interest rates? That so as to avoid inflation expectations from de-anchoring and to show that they are "doing something" about the whole situation.Well, it's not that simple. As mentioned before, what I don't like about this is that monetary policy is ill-equipped to tackle a supply shock and/or negative demand shock.If the war drags on for another month or two, what exactly does a rate hike by the ECB do? It isn't going to resolve tensions between the US and Iran. And it sure isn't going to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz or end the disruption to key energy facilities in the Gulf region.As such, the main thing that policymakers are hoping for is to buy enough time so that they can get better clarity to deal with the situation. And also allow themselves more optionality and flexibility in assessing the inflation outlook. But how long can they really wait for?The main issue now is that there is a suggestion that the ECB has to try and do something regardless and that's already baked into market pricing for rate hikes. Traders are pricing in ~80 bps of rate hikes by the ECB by year-end now.So, what happens when the ECB does not deliver on that?The thing is that markets have already tightened financial conditions on behalf of the ECB. And if they walk back on that or delay things further, we should see a loosening of those conditions instead.And as mentioned earlier this week:"Credibility concerns aside, this is a potentially dangerous situation as it risks inflation running away especially if we start to see second-round effects come into play. That particular risk is what central banks are very much afraid of, even if the Middle East conflict is to end today."There's a fine balance to be had as such.And adding to the difficulty in navigating the situation, let's be reminded that the ECB has already brought the deposit facility rate to 2.00%. That is around the middle of their supposed neutral estimate of 1.75% to 2.25%.So, what exactly does 50 bps of rate hikes do in this instance? By their interpretation, that brings interest rates back to just marginally restrictive territory at best. Is that really enough to bring inflation back down especially with the risk of second-round effects coming in?As we saw with the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it's going to take much more than that. And therein lies another set of risks if the ECB moves too slowly to act.Even if not being very clear at the moment, it must be said that one policy misstep is enough to send the economy on a recession spiral or if not an inflation one. And that's a very, very tough position to be in. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

No comment on FX levelIn close contact with our US counterpartClosely coordinating with US based on our FX agreement in September last yearThis is my final warning before actionThe Japanese yen extended the gains following these comments from Mimura. Earlier we got a verbal intervention from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. This is good news for JPY sellers as they get better levels where to enter from.As mentioned previously and as seen countless times in the past, interventions are useless if the fundamentals don't change. What's been weighing the most on the JPY this week were the dovish BoJ Governor Ueda's comments as he noted that they want to take a little bit more time in gauging how the Middle East situation would affect Japan’s economy and acknowledged that underlying inflation is currently a bit below the 2% target.He added that they expect underlying inflation to be around 2% from second half 2026 but admitted that he doesn’t know how many months it would take to gauge timing of their next rate hike.So, you have the energy shock weighing on economic activity, a neutral BoJ, a dovish PM and other central banks getting more hawkish. There's literally nothing supporting the upside for the JPY. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3%It's a modest reading with the yearly estimate showing a 0.7% increase in GDP compared to the first quarter of last year. But with the energy price surge set to have a more profound impact from April onwards, that will be where the real trouble starts for Italy and for the euro area economy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Stronger verbal intervention sends the JPY higher. The 160.00 handle on USD/JPY is definitely the line in the sand for Japanese officials but we've seen time and time again that their interventions are useless given the negative macro backdrop.The BoJ this week left interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as widely expected. The quarterly outlook report showed a significant upward revision for inflation and a downgrade for growth due to the US-Iran war. The highlight of the decision though were the three dissenters who voted for a rate hike, which gave the Japanese yen a short-term boost.Most of the gains were pared back as Governor Ueda struck a more measured tone in the press conference as he noted that they want to take a little bit more time in gauging how the Middle East situation would affect Japan’s economy and acknowledged that underlying inflation is currently a bit below the 2% target.He added that they expect underlying inflation to be around 2% from second half 2026 but admitted that he doesn’t know how many months it would take to gauge timing of their next rate hike. This is going to keep weighing on the Japanese yen despite intervention talk.The cycle high around the 162.00 handle is well in play and I wouldn't be surprised to see USD/JPY extending into the 170.00 level in the next months. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.2%That's a solid showing even as March data is likely weakened by the impact of the Middle East conflict. Relative to the same quarter a year ago, the quarterly performance here shows a 0.5% increase in GDP as well. The German stats office notes that both household and government final consumption expenditure expanded on the quarter with exports also seen higher. On the final point, could it be the case of businesses frontloading shipments before the US-Iran war got worse?We'll have to see. But all else being equal, Q2 is going to be a rough period for the euro area economy in general. That especially as the war continues to drag on into May with the Strait of Hormuz staying closed. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 0kUnemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.3% expectedPrior 6.3%; revised to 6.4%The struggle continues as the jobless figure rose by 20,000 on the month. So, that brings the overall number of unemployed persons to above 3 million now (3.006 million to be exact). Meanwhile, the jobless rate is keeping steady at 6.4% after the revision to March but that is the highest since July 2020. The German labour office notes that:"There is still no sign of a turnaround in the labour market. The spring upturn remains weak in April as well." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.00% today and keep the non-committal forward guidance by following a “data-dependent" and "meeting-by-meeting" approach. The focus will be mainly on the press conference where market participants will look for clues on the next ECB's move, what the ECB's reaction function will be and how the Governing Council is viewing the current situation.Since the last ECB meeting, the economic data confirmed the expected increase in headline inflation due to the energy shock and the negative impact on growth. Today, we will get the Eurozone Flash CPI for April where headline inflation is expected to increase further but with still limited impact on the core measure.The latest ECB's SAFE survey showed rising inflation expectations in the short-term but no impact on the long-term outlook. Wage growth expectations have also moderated to 2.8% vs 3.1% in the prior quarter. We recently saw further deterioration in the Flash Services PMI for April which fell to a 62-month low, while Manufacturing PMI was artificially boosted by stock-building with weak underlying details. What caught everyone's eye was of course the inflation section. The agency noted that “inflationary pressures continued to strengthen, with both input costs and output prices rising at the sharpest rates in more than three years amid the impacts of the war in the Middle East".If we look at the ECB commentary leading up to today's decision, President Lagarde recently said that they are between the baseline and adverse scenario and that the ECB doesn't have a tightening bias. ECB's Schnabel, who's generally the most hawkish member when there are inflation risks, said that the ECB is not in a rush and can afford to take time to analyse better the current shock.Given the economic data and the recent ECB commentary, there's a risk of disappointment for the hawks. The market is pricing 80 bps of tightening by year-end with an 87% probability of a rate hike in June. It's going to be hard for Lagarde to "outhawk" market's expectations, so just a less hawkish tone and a more measured approach to rate hikes could weigh on the euro. Even if Lagarde pre-commits to a rate hike in June, the upside in the euro is unlikely to be sustained given the already strong hawkish pricing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.8%While still relatively impressive, the quarterly growth estimate marks a slight slowdown compared to Q4 2025. That being said, it's not all too bad considering how economic activity in March is already starting to take a hit from rising energy prices. The pain spread in Spain perhaps is not as significant but still, it will be something that shows up more in Q2 surely.So, that will be a main worry for the Spanish economy in the months ahead. In the case of the ECB, this was one of the only bright spots they could always rely on. And if Spain starts to run into trouble, it is a signal that the pain will be even more amplified for the likes of Germany and France - who carry a bigger weight. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

CPI +2.2% vs +2.0% y/y expectedPrior +1.7%HICP +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y expectedPrior +2.0%Food price inflation eased to 1.3% from 1.8% in March but services inflation picked up to 1.9% from 1.7% previously. The main culprit for the surge in inflation though remains energy prices, which are seen up 14.2% year-on-year. That compares with the 7.4% year-on-year increase in March.It's no surprise really but it reaffirms that the fallout from the Middle East conflict is reverberating across the European economy. And this will bite at consumption activity and in the case of France, hamper domestic demand even further. That already as the scene has struggled for the most part over the years.A bad time to be hitting especially when the French economy has shown some bit part resilience since the middle of last year. Trouble, trouble. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we have a rare busy agenda today. We will begin with the French CPI report which is expected to show another uptick in inflation due to the ongoing energy crisis. The data won't change anything for the ECB at this point though.After that, we will get the Spanish, German and Eurozone Q1 GDP reports. These are not going to matter much as the ECB is focused more on inflationary pressures at the moment. The most important report is going to be the Eurozone Flash CPI for April. Headline inflation is expected to 3.0% vs 2.6% prior, but Core CPI is seen unchanged at 2.3%. The ECB has already pre-committed to a rate hold at today's meeting, so the data isn't going to change that, but an increase in core inflation will likely make them even more uncomfortable given the recent jump in inflation expectations.This brings us to the ECB policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.00%. The focus will be on Lagarde and whether she pre-commits to a rate hike in June or pushes back against current market expectations that assign an 80% probability of a rate increase. Given that traders are pricing in a total of 82 bps of tightening by year-end, it's going to be hard for Lagarde to "outhawk" the market, so it's hard to see any lasting upside movement for the euro even if she sounds hawkish and pre-commits to a rate hike in June. Before the ECB, we have the BoE policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% with one dissenter voting for a rate hike. The economic data has been broadly in line with BoE's projections but the recent PMIs were very hawkish with inflationary pressures hitting records. Traders will be looking for signals of a June hike being on the table or more voters dissenting for a rate hike. The market is pricing in 65% probability of a rate hike in June, so there's some room for the GBP to appreciate on a hawkish hold. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the US Q1 GDP, the US Employment Cost Index for Q1 and the US Jobless Claims figures. The most important data is going to be the ECI and the Jobless Claims figures. The ECI for Q1 is expected at 0.8% vs 0.7% prior. The Fed watches the data closely as it's the most comprehensive report on wage growth. The only drawback is that it's much less timely than Average Hourly Earnings. Initial Claims are expected at 212K vs 214K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1815K vs 1821K prior. The data has been very good since the start of the year and even showed a re-acceleration in the labour market in the past couple of months. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for USD/JPY at the 161.00 level. It doesn't tie to any technical significance and now with the pair breaking the 160.00 mark, it's clear skies up ahead; barring Tokyo intervention that is. That is the only thing likely to keep a lid on USD/JPY price action and so I wouldn't attach too much significance to the expiries above.However, just be mindful that figure levels from hereon will take on more of a psychological importance. Think of it as every break of a figure level above 160.00 as being a domino piece that falls. And with each falling piece, it will thin the patience of Tokyo officials to step in and intervene to prop up the yen currency.So, there is that bit of danger that could help exert some added influence from the expiry level above. That said, I would attribute the potential draw of the expiries to that and not solely based on the option interest alone.As a reminder, it is also a European holiday tomorrow. As such, the expiries board is a little thin as we look to round off the week.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.1%; revised to -0.3%Death, taxes, and German retail sales disappointing estimates. It's almost the case every time, innit? This is a very, very poor reading with the annual estimate also now falling into negative territory (-2.0%) in real terms.This reflects the pessimism tied to the situation in the Middle East, with surging energy prices weighing on consumer activity. Food sales were seen down 2.7% on the month while non-food retail trade also declined by 1.0% on the month. As higher prices come into the picture across multiple fronts, households will have to think twice about making certain purchases.And the continued negativity is persisting as we get into next month still. From earlier this week: Germany May GfK consumer sentiment -33.3 vs -29.3 expectedThe longer the war drags on, expect that to exert a bigger toll on the German economy. And that doesn't bode well for the ECB as there will be concerns about stagflation soon enough. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3%The headline reading marks the biggest monthly jump in import prices since March 2022. And no surprises, it is largely due to a massive surge in energy prices (+33.6% on the month). The annual jump shows a 13.2% increase compared to March last year. And to put things into perspective, the last time import prices for energy rose more sharply compared to the same month of the previous year was in December 2022 (+16.7%).But even when you exclude energy prices from the equation, import prices were still up 0.8% on the month compared to February. And if you exclude only crude oil and petroleum products, the import price index was 1.4% higher compared to February.That comes as intermediate prices also saw a strong bump on the month, being up 1.2%. In part, it is also reflective of the war in the Middle East with fertilizer prices rising sharply compared to the previous month (+10.1%).The longer the war drags on, expect this to have a bigger toll on import prices and that will eventually spill over to consumer price inflation more significantly. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

One of the dominant growth stories in global markets over the last ten years has been Big Tech. The need to find scale, earnings momentum and long-term disruption by investors led them to the same destinations: a few, technology giants who appeared to own the future. Their balance sheets were sound, their business models were replicable and their contribution to our daily lives was only enhanced with time. Growth investing in most portfolios was virtually equated to owning the largest technology names.Markets, however, are not always that concentrated. With rates, inflation, geopolitics, and industrial policy changing the nature of investment, an even wider array of opportunities is now coming under serious consideration. To investors who follow not just equities but also commodities, digital assets, and indices like SOL price USD, the writing is increasingly clear: Big Tech is still on the agenda, but it is not the sole source of growth capital to go to.The Growth Trade Is Starting to BroadenThe notion that mega-cap technology firms are the only ones capable of providing significant upside is beginning to wane. Part of that is because the demands on Big Tech are already staggering. Even good performance may struggle to impress the market in the long run once firms reach this size. When giants start to falter, investors look elsewhere, not because the giants are in trouble, but because the next stage of growth usually lies in neglected or underinvested areas.Additionally, the search has broadened access to a wider variety of industries. The more serious attention is paid now than it was only a few years ago to energy, industrials, financial infrastructure, defense, commodities and selective regions of digital finance. This does not imply that the world is going to give up on technology. It implies that the market is redefining what a growth story can be like.Crypto is part of that broader redefinition. Digital assets have long been seen as an isolated, speculative sector instead of a real growth allocation. This is evolving as market participants start to differentiate between hype-driven tokens and infrastructure-based platforms. Exchanges, such as Binance, are important to this discussion as they are at the intersection of access to liquidity and markets, and a focus on investors. When capital begins to move towards nontraditional growth areas, Binance is often among the first places where this shift can be observed.Why Big Tech’s Dominance Is Facing New LimitsBig Tech is still mighty, yet it is now confronted with a new market dynamic that differs from what contributed to the formation of its near-mythical reputation. An increase in interest rates has made investors valuation sensitive. Dominating platforms are more open to government regulation. The new vulnerabilities have been revealed by supply chains and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence, cloud computing and platform economics are no longer new narratives the way they used to be. They remain significant, although much of their potential is already reflected in the market.It is at this point that diversification re-emerges. Investors do not wish to have all of their future development be pegged on the same few names, however powerful they may be. They seek access to industries that could be advantaged by varied macro-factors, policy provisions, or demand patterns. Such a change inherently leaves room for other trades.The relevance of Binance in this context is as follows: It is sensitive to how quickly growth stories can be transformed when investors' focus shifts. Within crypto markets, areas and assets may become central within several months. Binance is often the place where such shifts can be quantified in terms of volume, market depth, and broader participation. That is why it is a convenient allegory of a bigger market fact: capital is not an eternal devotion to a single narrative.New Growth Winners Are Emerging in Unexpected PlacesThe less centralized growth is one of the most significant changes in the modern market. It is also moving out of software and internet platforms, into infrastructure, payments, reindustrialization, energy security, and digital financial networks. Investors are increasingly eager to support businesses and assets tied to physical systems, financial rails, and strategic supply chains.This is why the growth discourse now incorporates commodities and crypto in the ways that would have been considered odd within previous cycles. Not only are commodities becoming relevant as inflation hedges, but they are also becoming relevant as part of the industrial transition narrative. Digital assets are gaining new interest not only for price increases but also for their applications in payments, tokenization, and market infrastructure.For instance, Binance is featured in this rotating image because it remains a key entry point for crypto engagement. Be it major assets, exchange-linked ecosystems, or the general movement of digital capital, we still see, through Binance, how the market speaks of conviction. It is not the sole important platform, but one of the most explicit locations where speculative energy and infrastructure-based investment converge.Growth Now Includes Infrastructure, Not Just NarrativeOne of the primary reasons Big Tech is no longer the sole growth trade in town is that investors are no longer as enamored with the narrative, even without infrastructure. In earlier years, the most powerful narratives were those that were based on user expansion, platform supremacy, and long-term optimism. There are numerous investors today who desire assets that are closer to the actual economy or the financial plumbing that underlies it.Furthermore, this is one reason digital finance is more attractive. More attention is being paid to exchanges, custody providers, tokenized assets and payment rails by the investors. Binance continues to appear in that context because it is not merely a trading platform for consumers. It belongs to the system in which the world crypto liquidity flows. Such infrastructure could be more investable in theory as digital assets age, although it is not clear that the market will trust it yet.Moreover, this reflects a larger trend that extends beyond crypto. It is in the systems that facilitate commerce, production, and the movement of capital that growth is being discovered, not in the platforms that draw attention. It is a significant shift in how markets determine future winners.A More Competitive Growth LandscapeAll this does not imply the end of Big Tech. Such firms will be at the center of innovation, and many will still be able to deliver good returns. However, the market does not look like it is theirs and theirs only. The growth is increasingly becoming more competitive, more diversified and more reliant on macro forces than it was in the days when mega-cap technology names were almost being eclipsed by default.That makes the investment environment more interesting. Capital can now flow to other sectors with different drivers, be it industrial policy, energy needs, commodity scarcity, or digital financial adoption. Binance is still included in such a narrative since it is one of the most important entry points into the crypto market, an asset class that has lost its outlier status and now competes with stocks and commodities rather than being an outlier.The outcome is an expanded growth terrain. Big Tech remains mighty powerful, but it is no longer a monopoly of imagination in the market. Investors are seeking new drivers of growth in what once appeared to be the backwater. Such a change does not undermine the argument in favor of growth. It renders the case more diverse, more vibrant and possibly more robust than ever. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.2%The French economy stagnates in the first quarter of the year and that's not a great sign, even if conditions in March was weakened by the Middle East conflict. Surging energy prices will continue to have a stronger impact in April and that will leave a bigger market on the economy in Q2.Considering the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and energy price disruptions are still playing out, this definitely threatens a possible technical recession for this year. Every passing day that the war continues, the impact on the euro area economy will just continue to grow exponentially. Trouble, trouble. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This follows from the Fed decision yesterday, which reflected a bit of an atypical dissent from a few policymakers. Of note, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan were vocal about not wanting to stick with a more easing bias at this stage. In case you missed it:FOMC decision: No change in rates as expectedBesides that, it is also Powell's last meeting as Fed chair but markets are not too convinced that Trump can bully his way into rate cuts in the months ahead. That especially since there is still no certainty of when the US-Iran conflict will end. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, oil prices continue to ramp higher again this week.Morgan Stanley had previously penciled in two 25 bps rate cuts by the Fed for September and December this year. However, they have now revised that call in expecting no rate changes by the Fed whatsoever until year-end.The firm cites still-elevated inflation and recent data pointing to economic resilience as their main reason for pivoting.As things stand, higher inflation is arguably the main issue especially since Middle East tensions are showing no signs of thawing. The longer this keeps up, the worse it will hit on price pressures globally. And even if the war were to end today, the damage has already been done.The call by Morgan Stanley now fits with the market pricing we're seeing with Fed funds futures. No rate changes are expected all through the year with just a marginal tilt to hiking rates by the time we get to 2027. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that the government is considering to revive subsidies for electricity and natural gas in the summer months this year. It is likely that said subsidies will cover usage from July through to September, with a budget that could reach around ¥500 billion.For now, the source says that the government is planning to use reserve funds. That as opposed to compiling a supplementary budget, with prime minister Takaichi already looking into the proposal.Well, that's a heavy cost but at least they're choosing to tap into reserve funds here. With the Japanese yen currency already under immense pressure and the economic outlook being hampered significantly by the Middle East conflict, more fiscal pressures will not be welcome at this time.The idea of the subsidies here is to help cover retail electricity and gas prices for the most part. That as the bigger impact of higher prices for LNG is expected to hit later around June.As a reminder, Japan has already extended subsidies for gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict. That already saw the government draw ¥2 trillion in reserves over the years.But as energy prices - especially oil - continue to stay elevated, the worry here is that the funds for these subsidies will quickly dig the bottom of the barrel. It's all on how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed at this stage. And the longer it stays closed, the more it will push the government into needing to consider a supplementary budget to fund the subsidies down the road.In turn, that will be another big headwind for the yen currency as the Takaichi trade deepens. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Every Trader is a Forex TraderChina PMI data points to export resilience but soft domestic demand remains the weak spotUSD/JPY ticking higher above 160, no verbal intervention efforts so far todayUS military to present Trump with fresh options for military actionICYMI: Central banks buy 244 tons of gold in Q1 at fastest pace in over a yearChina private PMI surges to 52.2 in April, strongest factory reading since late 2020China private survey April manufacturing PMI 52.2 (expected 51.0, prior 50.8)China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 (expected 50.1) Non-manuf. 49.4 (exp 49.9)NZ business confidence crashes to -10.6 in April as cost shock rattles outlook - morePBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8628 (vs. estimate at 6.8414)New Zealand April business confidence in the hole at minus 10.6% vs. +32.5% in MarchJapan March industrial output falls 0.5% as Hormuz closure hits chemicals and fuelsA desperate Trump pitches Maritime Freedom Construct coalition to reopen Strait of HormuzJapan March Industrial production misses expectations while Retail Sales beatBank of England set to hold at 3.75% as Iran war forces stagflation reckoningNZ makes RBNZ votes public as fin min Willis overhauls MPC transparency charterPreview: ECB expected to keep rates at 2% today. Lagarde tone on June takes centre stageBrazil's cuts rate by 25bp to 14.50% but flags deanchored inflation and Middle East risksGoldman: UAE exit from OPEC introduces oil supply upside risk once Strait of Hormuz reopenAt a glance:US CENTCOM to brief Trump Thursday on Iran military options including infrastructure strike, Hormuz seizure and special forces uranium mission; Brent crude hits new war highChina official manufacturing PMI 50.3 in April, above the 50.1 forecast; non-manufacturing slips to 49.4, a 40-month low, back into contractionChina RatingDog private manufacturing PMI surges to 52.2, strongest since late 2020, reflecting outperformance of export-oriented private firms versus state-linked enterprisesUSD/JPY pushing toward 160.40 as yen weakens; no Japanese official intervention comments yetBank of Japan Governor Ueda scheduled to speak June 3, ahead of the June 15-16 policy meeting, potentially flagging a rate hikeBank of England rate decision 1100 GMT, Bailey press conference 1130 GMT; hold expectedECB rate decision 1215 GMT, Lagarde press conference 1245 GMT; hold expectedIt has been a busy session. The dominant headline is the Axios report that US CENTCOM will brief President Trump on Thursday on fresh military options against Iran, including a concentrated infrastructure strike, a potential ground operation to seize part of the Strait of Hormuz and a special forces mission to secure Iran's uranium stockpile. Brent crude has risen to a new war high on the news.From Asia, China's PMI data delivered a split verdict: the official manufacturing PMI held narrowly above 50 at 50.3 while the non-manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction at 49.4, exposing the gap between a resilient export-oriented factory sector and a struggling domestic economy. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI told a more upbeat story, surging to 52.2, its strongest reading since late 2020, reflecting the better fortunes of China's private and export-focused firms relative to their state-linked counterparts.In currency markets, the yen continued to weaken with USD/JPY pushing toward 160.40 and no verbal intervention from Japanese officials as yet. Notably, the Bank of Japan has announced that Governor Ueda will speak on June 3, ahead of the June 15-16 policy meeting, a scheduling choice that markets may read as preparation for a rate hike signal.Still to come today are rate decisions from the Bank of England at 1100 GMT and the European Central Bank at 1215 GMT. Both are expected to hold. Governor Bailey speaks at 1130 GMT and President Lagarde at 1245 GMT. See the previews above for the detail on what to watch. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This content is entirely independent and unsponsored. Carlo Pruscino is simply someone whose views I find worth paying attention to: with close to four decades of forex trading experience, he brings a depth of market knowledge that is increasingly rare, and the perspectives he shares on currency correlations, cross-market dynamics and trader psychology are genuinely useful regardless of what markets you follow.Carlo has been trading currencies since before 1990, and the central argument he makes after nearly four decades in the market is deceptively simple: every trader, regardless of what they think they are trading, is fundamentally a forex trader. Gold, oil, silver, cryptocurrencies, all are priced in US dollars. If you are trading any of them, you are taking a view on the dollar whether you know it or not.That premise shapes everything else Pruscino discusses. Currencies, in his framing, are not merely exchange rates but economic barometers, reflecting the relative health of the nations that issue them. The US dollar occupies a unique position at the centre of that system as the world's reserve currency, meaning that shifts in central bank reserve allocations, even modest ones, can produce outsized price movements. The eight most liquid currencies globally are the dollar, euro, yen, pound sterling, Australian dollar, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar, and understanding how they interact is, Pruscino argues, the foundation of reading any market.The cross-market correlations are where his experience shows most clearly. High oil prices, for example, are broadly positive for the Canadian dollar given Canada's energy export base, but act as a drag on economies like Japan and Europe, which are major oil importers. The Australian dollar he characterises as a fair weather sailor, sensitive to interest rate expectations, global equity sentiment and commodity prices in roughly equal measure. The Japanese yen, by contrast, he expects to remain under pressure as long as interest rates in other major economies stay elevated relative to Japan, keeping the currency a natural target for carry trades.On execution, Pruscino advocates matching trading style to market conditions. In volatile periods, a faster, shorter-term approach is more appropriate than trying to hold positions through noise. He identifies three non-negotiable skills for any serious trader: technical charting, fundamental analysis and emotional mastery, with the last of those frequently underestimated. On information, he sees real-time social media, particularly X, as a useful complement to traditional news wires, but stresses the need to verify before acting.His twelve-month outlook is cautiously constructive on commodity currencies and the euro, contingent on geopolitical tensions easing and global growth holding up. And his guiding principle for interpreting market reactions to news is one that experienced traders will recognise immediately: markets move on expectations, not on outcomes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.