EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the only highlight is going to be the German IFO survey. The IFO is correlated with the German Composite PMI given that they measure basically the same thing. The Business Climate index is expected to tick higher to 88.3 vs 87.6 prior, but whatever the data, the market reaction will likely be muted given no changes to economic or policy outlook.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we just have Fed's Waller giving a speech on economic outlook. He's one of the most respected governors and has also been a "leading indicator" for Fed's policy path. He's a dove, so if he keeps his usual stance, it's not going to change anything for the market. He's been the first focusing on labour market weakness and the first calling for rate cuts. His views were seen as politically-driven but eventually it turned out that he was right on just about everything.Right now, he's still sceptical about labour market stabilisation that other members are touting following the recent jobs data. If he were to support the stabilisation view, then it would be taken as a change in stance to neutral and would trigger a hawkish repricing.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS11:00 GMT/06:00 ET - BoE's Taylor (dove - voter)13:00 GMT/08:00 ET - Fed's Waller (dove - voter)17:30 GMT/12:30 ET - ECB's President Lagarde (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1845 level. It isn't one that holds too much technical significance but could act as a bit of a light ceiling to price action for the session ahead. That as it keeps near the 200-hour moving average, seen at around 1.1838 currently.Keep below the key near-term level and the bias holds more neutral for the pair for now at least. But push above, and the near-term bias switches to being more bullish again. The last time we saw that hold above both key hourly moving averages was all the way back on 12 February.However, the upside momentum this time around looks to have more backing to it. That as the dollar is stumbling across the board amid the chaotic mess from Trump's tariffs.The Supreme Court rejected the IEEPA tariffs from April last year but Trump is now pursuing other avenues to reinstate higher levies on all countries again. Section 122 allows for 15% tariffs for the next 150 days but after that, things will become more complicated.Amid the messiness and no holds barred kind of policy setting and response by the US administration, markets are once again feeling iffy about the dollar. No surprises there really. It is the exact kind of thing that has plagued the greenback since last year and we're seeing more of that in the early stages this year already. That after January was marred by geopolitical jitters involving the Venezuela situation.As such, this is all once again pushing precious metals higher while weighing on the dollar. So, that's the bigger driver of trading sentiment as we get into the new week.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Well, the timing of this is quite uncanny. Amid all the speculation surrounding Lagarde's future, this leak is now popping up and Lagarde is being placed under scrutiny for receiving about €140,000 a year from the BIS as her role as a board member.The Financial Times reports that some ECB employees have voiced their dissatisfaction on the matter, even using internal message boards at the central bank. They are said to feel incensed by the apparent double standards applied to Lagarde in her post as president and other "mortals" at the ECB.For some context, ECB staff supposedly "cannot accept remuneration for activities they perform exercising their ECB task". And while the BIS does not specifically disclose individual remuneration details, Lagarde herself disclosed receiving the payment above for the year 2025 in a written statement to German member of the European Parliament Fabio De Masi.The full report can be found here (may be gated).Well, this isn't the first scandal among policymakers at any major central bank. And it certainly won't be the last for sure. Power corruption is always the issue, ain't it? You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain. Such is life.In any case, this will just increase the scrutiny on Lagarde amid mounting speculation of her leaving the ECB earlier than her term dictates. She has come out to refute that but it's more along the lines of not confirming but not denying the rumour. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The big news since Friday and over the weekend is of course Trump's tariffs mess. The Supreme Court ruled against the US president in a landmark 6-3 decision, stating that Trump exceeded his constitutional authority by unilaterally imposing broad global tariffs under the guise of national emergency powers. The tariffs announced in April last year were based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).Now that the action is deemed unconstitutional, the collection of these tariffs must halt. And the US customs and border protection has come out to say that they will stop collecting the duties starting from 1201 ET (0501 GMT) on 24 February. That means just a little under 24 hours from now.As a reminder, the Supreme Court ruling only decides that Trump's reciprocal tariffs are deemed unconstitutional/illegal. It does not dictate the necessity or the manner in which any refunds should take place. And this where there is plenty of confusion and chaos happening, with there likely to be many legal hurdles to work through.I'm not just speaking about companies filing claims to get back their money after having paid these tariffs in the past. But what about the complication of these companies also already passing on the added tariffs cost to consumers/retailers? This isn't going to be straightforward and could take years to resolve in court.So with the IEEPA now put down, Trump is digging out Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a blanket 15% tariff for the next 150 days. After which, he will need Congress' approval to extend them - which is unlikely to work out.Given that, Trump is already touting a loophole of trying to reissue the Section 122 tariffs every 150 days. However, this will only bring us back to the "Major Questions Doctrine" ruling by the Supreme Court again. So, Trump trying to conveniently abuse the loophole would challenge the intent of the law and will surely be struck down once again.But at least for now, it buys Trump some time to work out other potential avenues. And the next likely step is to pursue tariffs under the pretext of unfair trade practices. That is listed under Section 301 and requires the US trade body to prove that other countries are acting "unreasonably" or "discriminatorily" towards the US in their trade practices.The issue here is that there might be a bit of a gap as Section 301 investigations usually take 6 to 12 months to complete because they require public hearings and evidence-gathering. So if they aren't completed by around July or August, there will be a gap in which Trump may not be able to place tariffs as he pleases. So, there's that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The immediate trigger was large scale liquidation that I noted at the time. But, these don't occur with no context. SUmmary:Bitcoin drops ~5% in a short window, slipping under US$65,000Break of key technical support accelerates selling pressureLarge holder (“whale”) flows to exchanges increase supplyBroader tariff and macro uncertainty weighs on risk appetiteNo single regulatory shock or systemic crypto event identifiedBitcoin fell sharply in recent hours, breaking below the US$65,000 level after a swift wave of selling that saw prices drop roughly 5% in a short span. The move appears largely technical and sentiment-driven rather than tied to a single headline catalyst.The US$65K region had been acting as a visible support zone following several sessions of sideways consolidation. Once breached, the level triggered a combination of stop-loss orders and short-term momentum selling, amplifying downside pressure. Such breaks often create a feedback loop in crypto markets, where liquidity can thin quickly and price action accelerates through clustered positioning.On-chain and exchange flow data suggest increased selling from larger holders. Elevated inflows of bitcoin to exchanges — often interpreted as a precursor to distribution, added to supply at a time when momentum was already fading. This marks a shift from prior weeks, where accumulation patterns had underpinned price stability.Macro factors also appear to have contributed. Renewed uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy and broader geopolitical risks have dampened global risk sentiment. In such environments, crypto assets often trade as high-beta risk instruments, making them vulnerable to de-risking flows. With equity volatility edging higher and oil markets sensitive to geopolitical headlines, broader cross-asset caution likely spilled into digital assets.Importantly, there has been no major exchange failure, regulatory crackdown, or systemic crypto shock associated with the decline. The move appears more consistent with a technical breakdown compounded by macro unease and positioning adjustments.Going forward, traders will watch whether bitcoin stabilises below US$65K or attempts a quick reclaim of the level. Failure to recover could expose lower support zones, while a rapid bounce may suggest the move was more of a positioning flush than the start of a deeper trend shift. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Former BOJ board member Sakurai says a renewed yen slide could trigger a March rate hike, though April remains the more logical timing. He sees the policy rate rising toward 1.75% over coming years but warns against tightening too quickly.Via an interview with Reuters. Summary:Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai says March hike possible if yen weakensApril move seen as more logical timing, but FX pressure could accelerate decisionUS “rate checks” signal Washington preference for stronger yenBOJ may need two hikes in 2026 and 2027 to reach ~1.75% neutral rateFaster tightening risks stress on regional banks and small firmsMarkets price ~70% chance of hike by AprilThe Bank of Japan could raise interest rates as soon as March if the yen resumes its decline, former board member Makoto Sakurai told Reuters, underscoring how currency dynamics are increasingly shaping Japan’s policy outlook.Sakurai said that while an April move would make more sense from a communication and forecasting standpoint, renewed yen weakness ahead of a potential March summit between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and US President Donald Trump could force the BOJ’s hand.Recent “rate checks”, widely interpreted as signalling a preference for a stronger yen, add to the sensitivity around FX moves. Sakurai argued that direct currency intervention only provides temporary relief, and that rate hikes remain the most durable tool for countering sustained yen depreciation.A weaker currency complicates Japan’s inflation picture. While government fuel subsidies dampen some price pressures, a renewed slide in the yen would lift import costs, pushing inflation higher and potentially reinforcing the case for tighter policy.Sakurai suggested the BOJ could justify a March hike by citing expectations of robust wage gains in the annual spring labour negotiations. Strong pay settlements would strengthen the argument that inflation is becoming more demand-driven and sustainable.Looking beyond the near term, Sakurai sees the policy rate, currently at 0.75% after multiple hikes since the BOJ ended its ultra-loose regime in 2024, ultimately rising toward around 1.75%, a level he described as broadly neutral. He estimates two hikes in both 2026 and 2027 may be required to reach that point.However, he cautioned against an overly rapid tightening cycle. Faster rate increases could strain Japan’s financial system, particularly regional banks and small businesses vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.Markets currently assign a strong probability to further tightening by April, placing the BOJ’s March 18–19 meeting firmly in focus. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'll have more to come on this separately ... ADDED, ok, details here:BOJ could hike in March if yen weakens, says ex-policymaker Sakurai This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman raised its 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI forecasts to $60/$56 on tighter OECD stocks, while maintaining a 2026 surplus assumption. The bank sees firmer prices in 2027 but flags sanctions relief in Iran/Russia as a key downside risk.Summary:Goldman raises 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI by $6 to $60/$56Assumes no Iran-related supply disruption and still sees a 2026 surplusUpgrade driven by lower-than-expected OECD inventoriesSees 2027 averages at $65/$61Forecasts recovery to $70/$66 by Dec 2027 on firm demand, slower supply growthFlags $5/$8 downside risk to 2026 Q4 if Iran/Russia sanctions relief boosts supplyGoldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for late 2026, citing tighter OECD inventories, while maintaining that the global market is likely to remain in surplus next year absent major geopolitical disruption.The bank lifted its 2026 fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $6 to $60 per barrel, and its WTI forecast by $6 to $56, reflecting lower-than-expected stock levels across OECD economies. Despite the upward revision, Goldman continues to assume no Iran-related supply shock, keeping its broader 2026 balance framework intact.The adjustment suggests that inventory dynamics, rather than a shift in core supply-demand assumptions, are driving the near-term upgrade. Lower OECD stocks imply a smaller cushion against demand surprises or supply interruptions, tightening the price outlook at the margin even within a surplus environment.Looking further out, Goldman expects prices to firm in 2027. The bank projects average Brent/WTI prices of $65/$61 in 2027, before rising toward $70/$66 by December 2027. The expected recovery reflects solid global demand growth alongside a moderation in non-OPEC supply expansion, particularly as US production growth slows and capital discipline remains broadly intact across major producers.However, Goldman flagged meaningful downside risks. Potential sanctions relief involving Iran or Russia could accelerate landed stock builds and unlock incremental supply into the market. In that scenario, the bank estimates downside risk of approximately $5 per barrel for Brent and $8 for WTI relative to its 2026 Q4 forecasts.The note highlights the continued sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical developments and sanctions policy, even as the underlying supply-demand picture remains broadly balanced. For now, Goldman’s base case assumes no major disruption — but also no rapid easing of sanctions that would materially alter supply trajectories. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin. Not just this though, ETH down 4.5% also, whole crypto complex getting hit. Daily chart looks headed back to the lows: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD is heavy in Asia trade on the new tariff debacle. Japan is closed today for a holiday. China is NOT back from its holiday today. I thought they were but I'll have to wait until Tuesday, February 24, 2026.HK shares are up, Hang Seng +1.4% or so. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The news from Friday was of Trump's tariffs found illegal:investingLive Americas market news wrap: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffsTrump later replaced them with MOAR tariffs:That didn't take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:FT reports Iran agreed €500m arms deal with Russia in DecemberContract covers 500 Verba MANPADS launchers and 2,500 9M336 missilesDeliveries scheduled in tranches from 2027 to 2029Deal negotiated between Rosoboronexport and Iran’s defence ministry representativeTehran formally requested systems in JulyEarlier:NYT: Trump weighs limited Iran strikes as nuclear deal talks continue. In coming days.Update: US-Iran nuclear talks set for Thursday as Trump weighs military optionIran has reportedly agreed to a €500 million arms deal with Russia to purchase thousands of advanced shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, according to a report by the Financial Times.Citing leaked Russian documents and individuals familiar with the matter, the FT said the agreement was signed in Moscow in December. The contract commits Russia to supply 500 man-portable air defence system (MANPADS) launch units of the Verba type, along with 2,500 associated 9M336 missiles, over a three-year delivery schedule running from 2027 through 2029.The systems are designed to target aircraft, helicopters and potentially drones at relatively low altitudes, enhancing short-range air defence capabilities. If completed, the deal would represent a significant upgrade to Iran’s mobile air-defence inventory at a time of heightened regional tension.According to the report, the negotiations were conducted between Rosoboronexport and the Moscow-based representative of Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). Tehran is said to have formally requested the equipment last July, with documentation reviewed by the FT outlining the scale and timeline of the proposed acquisition.The timing is notable. In June last year, US forces conducted strikes on three of Iran’s principal nuclear facilities amid escalating hostilities tied to the broader Israel-Iran confrontation. President Donald Trump subsequently stated that key nuclear infrastructure had been destroyed in those operations.While the long-dated delivery schedule suggests no immediate battlefield shift, the agreement — if verified — underscores continued deepening defence cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. It also signals Iran’s intent to bolster air defence resilience in anticipation of potential future military pressure.Neither government has publicly confirmed the reported transaction. However, the prospect of expanded Russian arms transfers to Iran is likely to draw scrutiny from Western capitals and could add another layer of complexity to already strained geopolitical dynamics.2027-2029 delivery schedule won't impact Trump current planning. Maybe speed it up ;-) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD is lower in early Asia trade. Its still VERY early, with thin liquidity, thinner than usual, due to the Japanese marekts being closed today for holiday. China is back, though, returning from their week-long Spring break / Lunar New Year holiday. My bad, nope. Not until tomorrow.USD down.-The Supreme Court ruling striking down much of President Donald Trump’s prior tariff regime marks a significant moment in the evolving battle over executive trade powers. The Court reportedly found that the administration had exceeded its statutory authority in imposing broad-based tariffs under emergency provisions, ruling that the legal justification used to implement sweeping duties did not align with congressional intent. The decision effectively invalidated large portions of last year’s tariff structure, creating immediate uncertainty for businesses that had already adjusted supply chains and pricing models around the levies.The ruling does not eliminate the president’s ability to impose tariffs altogether. Instead, it narrows the scope under which emergency or national-security justifications can be used without explicit congressional backing. Legal analysts note that the Court’s reasoning reinforces constitutional limits on executive authority in trade matters, potentially setting a precedent that constrains future administrations.In response, Trump moved quickly to announce a new 15% tariff framework, signalling that his trade agenda remains firmly intact despite the judicial setback. While details of the revised structure are still emerging, the administration is expected to rely on alternative statutory pathways that may be more narrowly tailored or procedurally robust. The 15% rate appears designed to maintain pressure on trading partners while attempting to withstand legal scrutiny.For markets, the episode underscores the volatility inherent in trade policy. Companies face renewed uncertainty over input costs, cross-border investment decisions, and supply-chain stability. Consumers may ultimately bear part of the burden through higher import prices, while policymakers must weigh the inflationary implications. The Supreme Court’s intervention clarifies legal boundaries, but the rapid reimposition of tariffs suggests that trade tensions, and their economic consequences, remain far from resolved.Tariff Karen. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil opened slightly lower in early trade as markets balanced escalating Iran–US tensions against renewed nuclear talks and rising tariff concerns that threaten global demand.Summary:Oil opens slightly softer in Sunday evening Globex tradeIran–US conflict risk underpins geopolitical risk premiumFresh nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday temper escalation fearsRising tariff concerns weigh on global growth outlookMarket balancing supply disruption risk vs demand headwindsOil prices opened lower in early Sunday evening trade on Globex, as traders weighed mounting geopolitical risks against renewed concerns over global growth.On the supportive side, tensions between the United States and Iran continue to underpin a geopolitical premium in crude. Reports that President Donald Trump is considering potential military options against Iran, alongside warnings that diplomacy may be running out of time, have kept the market alert to the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East. Any direct confrontation involving Iranian energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, or regional proxies would likely have immediate implications for flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil exports.However, those upside risks are being partly offset by signs that diplomacy is not yet exhausted. US and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet in Geneva later this week, raising the prospect, however fragile, of a negotiated framework that could reduce immediate escalation risk. Even incremental progress toward a nuclear understanding could take some of the geopolitical bid out of crude.At the same time, broader macro headwinds are reasserting themselves. Renewed tariff uncertainty and rising trade tensions risk dampening global growth expectations, particularly in manufacturing-heavy economies. Slower trade flows and weaker industrial activity would translate into softer oil demand projections, limiting upside momentum.The result is a market caught between competing narratives: a tightening geopolitical backdrop that supports prices versus mounting concerns that trade friction and policy uncertainty could curb demand growth. Early Globex price action reflects that balance, with traders reluctant to build aggressive positions ahead of Thursday’s diplomatic milestone. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ADDED ... My bad, nope. Not until tomorrow. Markets overwhelmingly expect the People’s Bank of China to leave its benchmark lending rates untouched, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate seen holding at 3.00% and the 5-year at 3.50%. Economists argue that commercial lenders are already grappling with historically thin net interest margins, meaning any further trimming of the LPR could squeeze bank profitability even further.The Bank setting its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs), this used to a big deal, very highly anticipated, but not any more. China's main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day. The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses reverse repo open market operations to inject or absorb funds, influencing interbank lending rates.The LPR setting in January left the 5 year at 3.50% (vs. expected 3.50% and prior 3.5%) and the 1 year at 3.00% (vs. exp. 3.0% and prior 3.0%). With no change expected for either again today, this will mark the ninth consecutive month without a change.A look back at the past changes in the LPR, since early 2022:First trading day for China today of the Fire Horse year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:NYT reports Trump weighing limited US airstrikes on Iran in coming daysPotential targets: IRGC, nuclear facilities, missile infrastructureBroader campaign, including pressure on Khamenei, possible if strikes failParallel diplomacy continues alongside military planningProposal from IAEA chief Rafael Grossi could allow limited enrichment for medical fuelFramework would let Iran retain token enrichment while US claims nuclear rollbackPresident Donald Trump is reportedly considering limited airstrikes on Iran, according to a report by The New York Times, as tensions escalate over Tehran’s nuclear programme.The potential strikes would focus on assets tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, nuclear facilities, and elements of Iran’s missile infrastructure. The report suggests that if such targeted action fails to significantly pressure Tehran, the administration could consider a broader strategy aimed at destabilising or removing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.The military planning is unfolding alongside active diplomatic efforts. US and Iranian officials are reportedly discussing a proposal advanced by Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The framework would allow Iran to produce small quantities of nuclear fuel for medical purposes, effectively preserving limited uranium enrichment while placing constraints around weaponisation pathways.Such a compromise could offer political cover for both sides: Iran would maintain a degree of sovereign nuclear capability, while Washington could argue it had curtailed Tehran’s breakout potential. The proposal reportedly contemplates tightly monitored enrichment under international oversight.The dual-track dynamic, visible military preparation combined with diplomatic engagement, reflects the high-stakes nature of the current standoff. For the White House, calibrated strikes could be intended as leverage to force concessions at the negotiating table. For Tehran, accepting a restricted enrichment model may be viewed as preferable to risking broader military escalation.The coming days are likely to determine whether the trajectory bends toward de-escalation through a technical compromise or toward confrontation with significant regional consequences. ---If the NYT has managed to nail the timing of the attack ... Oil would likely spike on confirmed strikes or credible mobilisation, while gold and the US dollar could benefit from safe-haven flows. Maybe take some attention away from his tariff debacle. And Epstein. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US and Iranian negotiators are poised to meet in Geneva after Tehran submits a detailed nuclear proposal. Officials describe the talks as potentially the last diplomatic window before the Trump administration considers military action, though interim arrangements remain possible.Summary:US and Iranian negotiators expected to meet in Geneva ThursdayTrump administration awaiting detailed Iranian nuclear proposal by TuesdayOfficials describe diplomacy as potentially the “last chance” before military actionUS position remains “zero enrichment,” but token enrichment reportedly discussedInterim agreement possible while broader deal negotiatedIranian leadership yet to formally sign off on draft proposalUS and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet in Geneva on Thursday to review a detailed Iranian proposal aimed at reviving nuclear diplomacy, according to reporting by Axios. A senior US official said the Trump administration expects to receive Tehran’s draft plan by Tuesday, setting the stage for what officials describe as a critical moment in the talks.The diplomatic push comes amid heightened tension. US officials cited by Axios say this round may represent the final opportunity President Donald Trump is prepared to grant before considering a large-scale US-Israeli military operation. Such an operation could reportedly extend to direct targeting of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Face the Nation that he expects to meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Geneva. Both advisers have reportedly encouraged Trump to give diplomacy a final opportunity before authorising military action.According to Axios, the US is seeking a comprehensive written proposal from Tehran outlining how any deal would prevent pathways to a nuclear weapon. Washington’s official position remains “zero enrichment” of uranium on Iranian soil. However, US officials indicated they would review a proposal that includes limited or “token enrichment” provided it demonstrably blocks weaponisation routes.Araghchi said the draft is still being finalised and requires approval from Iran’s political leadership. He suggested discussions in Geneva could move quickly toward drafting agreed text, potentially opening the door to a fast-tracked arrangement. US officials also confirmed the possibility of negotiating an interim agreement while working toward a broader nuclear framework.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said recent talks had yielded “encouraging signals,” though he added Tehran is prepared for “any potential scenario.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China is back from its week long 'Spring Break' Lunar New Year holiday today. My bad, nope. Not until tomorrow. The calendar is light. We've had some NZ data already. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Rolls-Royce is expected to announce a fresh share buyback of up to £1.5bn (~$2bn) with annual results this week, Sky News reported The company has not commentedRolls-Royce already reinstated payouts last year, unveiling a £1bn buyback alongside results Management has been running additional capital returns, including a £200m “interim” buyback ahead of FY25 results The group’s latest guidance (set at the July half-year update and reiterated in a November trading update) points to £3.1bn–£3.2bn underlying operating profit and £3.0bn–£3.1bn free cash flow for FY25Rolls-Royce is expected to step up shareholder returns again when it reports annual results this week, with Sky News reporting the UK aerospace and engineering group will announce a new share buyback of up to £1.5 billion (about $2 billion) alongside its numbers. A buyback of that size would be notable but not unprecedented for the company in its post-turnaround phase. Rolls-Royce restarted shareholder distributions last year, announcing a £1 billion share buyback to be completed over the course of 2025, alongside the return of dividends following the pandemic-era suspension. That marked a shift in its capital story: after years focused on balance-sheet repair, management signalled confidence in cash generation and a framework for returning excess capital.Since then, the company has continued to execute on that plan. In mid-December, Rolls-Royce disclosed an additional £200 million “interim” share buyback programme to run ahead of the expected release of its FY25 results on 26 February 2026. The buyback chatter lands against a backdrop of upgraded profit and cash guidance. At its July half-year update, Rolls-Royce lifted the top end of its FY25 outlook, guiding to £3.1bn–£3.2bn underlying operating profit and £3.0bn–£3.1bn free cash flow. The company subsequently reiterated that guidance in a November trading update, reinforcing market expectations that cash generation remains strong across its major units (civil aerospace aftermarket, defence, and power systems). If confirmed, a new buyback would likely be read as another vote of confidence in the durability of the turnaround and the underlying cash engine — but investors will still focus on the usual swing factors around results: margins and flying hours in civil aerospace, execution on any operational/supply-chain constraints, and the shape of cash conversion relative to guidance.---Primary listing Exchange: London Stock Exchange under ticker RR This is the main and most liquid listing. Index membership: FTSE 100 US trading (ADR) Market: US OTC market Ticker: RYCEY (ADR) Also trades under RYCEF (ordinary shares, OTC) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ECB’s Lagarde urges clarity as US tariff turmoil returns.Summary:Lagarde warns renewed US tariff uncertainty risks fresh disruptionSays businesses need clarity on trade and investment rulesHopes new tariff plans are “sufficiently thought through” and constitutionalNotes consumers ultimately bore the cost of prior tariffsDefends central bank independence amid US political backdropReaffirms focus on euro area price stability and completing her termEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that renewed uncertainty around US trade policy risks triggering fresh disruption for businesses and consumers, following a Supreme Court decision that struck down much of the Trump administration’s prior tariff regime.Speaking on Face the Nation, Lagarde said it remains unclear what will happen next as President Donald Trump prepares new tariff measures in response to the court ruling. She stressed that companies need predictability.“You want to know what the rules are for trade and investment,” Lagarde said, adding that an equilibrium had been emerging in global trade relationships before being shaken again. Reopening trade tensions would bring “more disruptions,” she cautioned.Lagarde expressed hope that any new tariff framework would be “sufficiently thought through” and compliant with the US Constitution, warning that businesses prefer certainty over litigation and policy volatility. The comments followed the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the bulk of last year’s tariffs, prompting the White House to signal fresh levies.She also emphasised that consumers did not avoid the pain of earlier tariffs, underlining the inflationary transmission channel from trade barriers to household budgets, a key concern for central banks.Turning to monetary policy, Lagarde reiterated her respect for both Jerome Powell and Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, while stressing that central bankers must remain immune from political influence.Lagarde reaffirmed her focus on price stability in the euro area and indicated that her baseline expectation is to serve until the end of her term to consolidate policy gains.Lagarde expressed hope that any new tariff framework would be “sufficiently thought through” ... so far there hasn't been any evidence of tariffs being thought through, so good luck with that. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.