AvailableRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhatis elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. UncertaintyDevelopments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action waswere Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The Fed is sending the message to the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that the Fed votes may not "follow the leader". The stocks are lower with the Nasdaq down -102 points or -0.42%. The S&P is down -0.36%. Yiels have moved higher with the 2 year now up 9.7 basis points at 3.942%. The 10 year is at 4.415% up 6.0 basis points.The USD is higher with the USDJPY moving to a high of 160.40. The high for the year is at 160.455. That is the highest level going back to July 2024. The EURUSD moved below the 200 day MA at 1.1675. The low came in at 1.1672 but has pushed back above that key MA level. The market sees a 25% chance for a 25 basis point hike in April 2027 up from 20% before the decision. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

April 29, 2026Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementFor release at 2:00 p.m. EDTRecent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The final FOMC decision with Jerome Powell as chair:Prior was 3.50-3.75%Miran voted to cutHammack, Kashkari and Logan did not support "inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time"Statement says economic activity has been expanding at a solid paceJob gains have remained lowInflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy pricesDevelopments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlookThat is a very unusual dissent from Hammack, Kashkari and Logan. I don't think they're trying to say that the Fed has an easing bias but shouldn't. What they're saying is that the Fed shouldn't have a stance that's like "we could hike or ease" but want the Fed to have only a hiking bias.The market isn't taking too much of a nudge from it but yields did climb a bit, though that could have been people sidelined beforehand. WTI is up $6.63 today so you would expect pressure in the front end.The US dollar made small gains after the release, with the euro ticking to a session low down 35 pips to 1.1676.The setup is genuinely awkward. The Iran conflict and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz blew a hole in the inflation picture in March, dragging headline CPI back up to 3.3% from a far more comfortable 2.4% in February. April nowcasts have it pushing toward 3.6%. That's the highest print in close to three years and it lands at exactly the wrong moment for a Fed that had finally convinced itself disinflation was on track. Energy is doing most of the damage, but the worry is always second-round effects.On the other side of the mandate, the labor market has cooled. Not falling out of bed, but cooled — hiring has slowed, the unemployment rate has drifted higher, and wage growth has eased. The Fed doesn't sound overly alarmed but it will be interesting to hear what Powell has to say. Retail sales and the April PMIs have held up better than feared, so it's not a growth scare, at least not yet. It's the uncomfortable middle ground where neither side of the dual mandate is screaming for action. I would note that AI capex spending is truly at insane levels and today's core durable goods orders were at the best levels in four years.Kevin Warsh on track to take over in May after clearing the Senate Banking Committee today. The press conference, normally the main event, has to be read through the lens of a chair who can't credibly commit his successor to anything. With no SEP and no dot plot today, the statement wording and Powell's tone are doing all the work. Powell will be asked if he will stay on as Governor. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Today is all about AI capex.This is the range to watch: $435–475 billion.That's estimate capex for this year alone from Microsoft, Meta and Google, who all report after the bell. It's an astounding number that I want to put into perspective.because even people in markets have no idea how big the AI capex boom is.It's larger than the combined annual military spending of China and Russia.That's more than the entire government of Canada budget this year and approaches Germany's government budget.It's double the entire four-year Marshall Plan (inflation adjusted).It's nearly equivalent to the 35-year build out of the interstate highway system (inflation adjusted)It's slightly larger than entire global upstream oil capex budget.It's larger than the combined annual military spending of China and Russia.It's double than global pharma R&D spending.It's 3.5x global mining industry capex.Today we got a taste of the spending in the durable goods orders report:That doesn't even include Amazon, OpenAI and the others also spending massively on AI capex.Details and what's expected today:Alphabet — Watch for any revision to the $175–$185B 2026 capex range — that's nearly double the $91.4B spent in 2025 (those numbers are breathtaking). Options pricing about a 5.6% move in the stock on earnings.Microsoft — Microsoft doesn't guide on capex for the year but capex is estimated at $35.2B for the quarter and look for indications about about it "growing" or "stabilizing" or anything along those lines. Management said H2 spend would be larger than H1. Indications on multi-year spending will be notable as well.Meta — The guide on 2026 capex is $115–135B, up from $69.7B in 2025, with total expenses guided to $162–169B. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Crude oil is taking a another step to the upside with a move to a new intraday high of $107.63. The current price is trading at $107.30. The move higher has now taken the price above a swing area between $105.53 and $106.86. Staying above that area would keep the buyers in firm control. Moving back below would disappoint those buying on the break.Earlier reports that the blockade of Iranian ships would continue perhaps for months by the US helped to push the price higher.Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal today is reporting that Iran’s economy is under severe strain from war and blockades, with unemployment surging, inflation near 67%, and the currency hitting record lows. Basic goods are increasingly unaffordable, and businesses are shutting down across multiple sectors.The conflict has turned into an economic standoff with the U.S. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade have choked off key oil revenues, with both sides betting the other will crack first.Government finances are stretched thin as revenues fall and war damage mounts. Efforts to offset the impact—subsidies, wage hikes, and alternative trade routes—have provided only limited relief.Economic hardship is at its worst in decades, raising the risk of renewed unrest and political instability.Bottom line: Iran’s economy is under intense pressure, and the outcome may depend on which side reaches its economic breaking point first.. Meanwhile, the price of oil moves sharply higher and is breaking above a key swing area between $105.53 and $106.86 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD is under pressure today, leading the majors to the downside against the USD. The pair is currently trading at 0.5834, down -0.87%, as a combination of risk-off sentiment and rising U.S. yields weighs on the currency.The broader market backdrop is not helping. The NASDAQ Composite has slipped into negative territory (down around -0.34%) ahead of a heavy slate of earnings after the close from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon. At the same time, yields are pushing higher into the FOMC rate decision, with the 2-year up 7 basis points to 3.914% and the 10-year climbing 4.6 basis points toward 4.40%. Oil prices are also not helping with a rise of 6.68% on fears of a more prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That combination is keeping the USD bid and the NZD on the defensive.From a technical perspective, the pair traded down to 0.5827, coming within a couple of pips of the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. That level is critical. The pair originally moved above that MA on April 13 following cease-fire headlines, making it a key barometer for buyers and sellers now.Below the 200-bar MA: The bias tilts more bearish, with downside targets in the 0.5760–0.5777 swing areaHolding support at the MA: Keeps buyers in the game and opens the door for a corrective bounce On the topside, resistance levels are clearly defined:0.5853: End-of-December high 0.5867: 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart 0.5884: 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range Bottom line: Sellers are making a play on the back of yields and risk sentiment, but they’re pressing into a key technical support zone. That makes this area a decision point — either a break lower with momentum, or a pause that invites profit-taking and a corrective rebound. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY has spent most of its time since March 11 trading within a well-defined range between 158.00 and 160.00. There have been brief breaks outside that band, but for the most part, price action has been contained—making those boundaries a clear barometer for buyers and sellers.Today, the buyers started to take more control.The first clue came during the Asian-Pacific session, where the price found solid support against the 100-hour moving average. Buyers leaned against that level, defining risk, and used it as a springboard for a push higher into the European session.Momentum carried into North America, where stronger USD buying—helped by rising yields and higher oil prices—drove the pair above the key swing area near 160.00. That break shifted the bias more firmly in favor of the buyers.Since then, the price has extended to a high of 160.31, with the corrective pullback holding at 160.006. The pair currently trades near 160.20, keeping the upside pressure intact.For buyers to stay in control: Holding above the 159.96–160.00 area is key That zone now acts as a floor and short-term risk-defining level A more conservative risk level comes in below 159.705—the low of a prior swing area. A move below would start to erode the bullish bias.On the topside, the next target comes in at the 2026 high of 160.455. A break above that level would open the door to the July 2024 high at 161.919—the highest level in over a year.Bottom line: Buyers made a play above 160.00 Sellers are feeling the pressure Holding above the breakout keeps the path tilted higher Now it’s about whether the buyers can build on the momentum—or if the move turns into another failed break in what has been a range-bound market. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Here is a translated report from Trump, who spoke in an interview with Israel's N12:U.S. President Donald Trump spoke today (Wednesday) with News 12 and stated: "I will not lift the naval blockade on Iran without reaching a deal regarding the nuclear program.""The naval blockade is, in some ways, more effective than bombings," the U.S. President said of the measure. "The Iranians are choking—like a fattened pig. And it’s going to get worse for them. They cannot possess nuclear weapons." The President claimed that "the Iranians want a settlement. They don't want me to continue the blockade."Trump expanded on the effectiveness of the naval blockade, saying that "Iran's oil reserves and pipelines are about to explode soon because they cannot export oil due to the blockade."At the same time, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth commented on the situation in Iran, stating that "other administrations made deals in cash," hinting at the Obama administration. Regarding the Iranian nuclear program, he added: "We need to look people like Iran in the eye. We know where all their weapons are located. They have not given up on their ambitions."A separate N12 report says the US has prepared plan for short and powerful strikes against Iran. After the strikes, US would call on Iran to return to the negotiating table.I don't really get the argument that Iran is going to shut off its pipes and permanently damage its reservoirs. If it comes to that, I'd imagine they'll pump their oil right into the desert before they risk wrecking the underground geology. Maybe there's some reason they can't do that but I find it all a bit of a struggle that's the US plan.Moreover, Iran has the world's second-largest oil reserves, they can rebuild. WTI is up $5.80 to $105.72 today, so I wouldn't say the market is exactly endorsing the strategy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.7%HICP +2.9% vs +3.1% y/y expectedPrior +2.8%Core CPI Y/Y +xx% vs +2.5% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:US futures keep more muted awaiting big day aheadBig day coming up on the earnings calendar in Wall StreetGold extends the losses amid US-Iran stalemate, hawkish central banks. What's next?Fed preview: focus on Powell’s final press conference as no policy change is expectedGerman states see slight uptick in headline inflation for AprilSpain April preliminary CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expectedEuro area economic climate worsens further in April as inflation expectations jumpMarkets:WTI crude breaks $100 mark, up 3.3% to $103.20S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, European indices down 0.2% to 0.5%USD steady, NZD lags on the dayUS 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.361%Gold down 0.5% to $4,571Bitcoin up 1.5% to $77,609It was another tense session in Europe today as markets continue to be gripped awaiting further US-Iran developments.US president Trump warned of an "indefinite blockade" yesterday and told Iran to "get smart soon" overnight. Otherwise, he said that there will be "no more Mr. Nice Guy" with this picture of him attached to his tweet (yes, this is not a joke):Oil prices continue to ramp higher with WTI crude now firmly breaking the $100 mark on the day. We're seeing price go up by over 3% to $103.20, as fear continues to grow that the stalemate on the Strait of Hormuz will play out for longer. Meanwhile, "front-month" Brent crude i.e. July contract is also seen up over 3% to $107.50 on the day.As for the overall risk mood, things are keeping on edge as US-Iran talks remain in limbo still. Wall Street will be eyeing key risk events on the economic calendar today though. The Fed meeting and big tech earnings are the two main things to watch out for. On the latter, we'll be seeing Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft report earnings before Apple rounds things off tomorrow.S&P 500 futures are marginally up by 0.1% with Nasdaq futures up 0.2% on the day. In Europe, major indices are holding slight losses across the board.In other markets, the dollar is keeping steadier with EUR/USD hugging the 1.1700 level amid large option expiries. USD/JPY is up 0.1% to 159.83 while AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.7157 as the push and pull continues among major currencies.Looking to precious metals, gold is down 0.5% to $4,571 amid a more tepid risk mood with silver down 0.7% to $72.55 on the day.US-Iran headlines will still be the key driver of broader market sentiment but just be wary that there are other factors in play in US trading later, not to mention month-end shenanigans too. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

CME equities options data shows investors are still hedging, even as Nasdaq risk looks more balancedKey takeawaysCME equities data around 28 April 2026 shows a market that is active, liquid, and still heavily hedged.S&P 500 options remain strongly put-heavy, suggesting institutions are still carrying downside protection.Nasdaq options are also hedged, but much less defensively positioned than S&P 500 options.Russell 2000 options show continued caution toward small caps.For beginners, the main lesson is simple: a rising market can still be heavily hedged underneath.What the latest CME equities data tells usThe latest CME Equities Market Overview shows a market that is not panicking, but is clearly not relaxed either.Futures trading volume rebounded sharply on 28 April, rising to 5.92 million contracts, compared with 4.72 million the prior day. However, futures open interest stayed relatively stable near 5.27 million to 5.31 million over the last several sessions.For beginners, this matters because volume and open interest tell different stories.Volume shows how much trading happened. Open interest shows how many contracts remain open after the trading session. When volume jumps but open interest does not expand dramatically, it often points to active repositioning, hedging, rolling, or short-term trading rather than a major new directional bet.In plain English: traders were busy, but the market did not show a clear sign that everyone was suddenly making a fresh bullish or bearish commitment.The global markets are currently caught in a high-stakes waiting game, driven largely by the persistent stalemate between the U.S. and Iran. This geopolitical tension has pushed oil back into triple-digit territory, creating a massive supply shock that is paralyzing central banks. While the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady today, I found it interesting that the focus has shifted entirely to Jerome Powell’s final press conference. With inflation expectations jumping—most notably in the Eurozone, where sentiment has hit its lowest point since 2020—Powell faces the difficult task of maintaining neutrality to give his successor enough room to navigate an increasingly hawkish landscape.The strain of this "higher-for-longer" reality is becoming visible across all asset classes, from the Indian Rupee’s slide toward record lows to Gold’s recent technical breakdown. Even the tech sector is showing signs of nerves; despite a flurry of earnings from the "Magnificent Seven," U.S. futures remain muted as investors weigh resilient labor data against rising energy costs. I noticed that while Bitcoin continues to flirt with $80,000, the immediate structure looks fragile, much like the USD/CAD which is pulling back into a major trendline ahead of today's critical policy decisions.Those that have got to know some of my analyses, my toolkit is comprehensive but I really like those simple charts as part of the orientation, even if I look at it to watch for 'fakies' or traps and regardless of if I deep dive into tick, orderflow data analysis, volume profile or indicators. Above, the Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ1!) 1-hour chart illustrates a well-defined ascending channel that has governed price action for the past month. As of late April, the index is trading near the 27,268 level, resting precariously on the lower boundary of this technical corridor. This specific zone has historically acted as a springboard for buyers, maintaining the broader bullish structure that has delivered a 40% gain over the last year.The current consolidation at this support line highlights a critical juncture for the index. With heavyweights Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta set to report earnings tonight, the market is essentially holding its breath. If the results are strong enough to protect this uptrend channel, it could validate the current support and trigger a push toward the upper resistance levels near 28,000. Conversely, a failure to hold this line would mark a significant technical breakdown, potentially shifting the near-term bias from bullish to defensive.Everyone is waiting for 3 mega potential catalysts for the next move: Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta al reporting earnings tonightS&P 500 options remain heavily defensiveThe biggest message in the report comes from the options market.On 28 April, S&P 500 options volume was heavily skewed toward puts:A put option is often used as downside protection. Investors may buy puts to hedge a portfolio, or they may use put spreads to define bearish exposure.The most important number here is not just daily volume. It is the 75.33% put share in open interest. That means a large portion of existing S&P 500 options positioning is still tied to downside protection.This does not automatically mean the market must fall. But it does tell us that many institutional players are still protecting against downside risk.Defensive does not always mean bearishThis is where many newer traders get confused.A put-heavy market can mean investors are nervous. But it can also mean the market is already well protected. If bad news does not arrive, or if earnings come in better than feared, some of that protection can be reduced. That process can sometimes support rallies.So the correct beginner takeaway is not:“The market is full of puts, so stocks must go down.”A better takeaway is:“The market is heavily hedged, so traders should expect two-sided risk. Downside fear is real, but if price holds firm, hedging unwind and short-covering can also support upside.”E-mini S&P 500 options show protection beyond the very short termThe E-mini S&P 500 options data is also heavily put-weighted across different expiry windows.This is important because it shows the hedging is not only in very short-term options.The 29-96 day bucket had almost 80% put open interest, which suggests some investors are protecting against more than just one trading day or one earnings headline. They may be hedging broader macro risk, policy uncertainty, valuation risk, or a potential market pullback over the next several months.Nasdaq options look less defensive than S&P 500 optionsOne of the more interesting parts of the CME report is the difference between S&P 500 and Nasdaq positioning.E-mini Nasdaq-100 options are still put-heavy, but the skew is much less extreme.For beginners, this is a key point.The broad market may be heavily hedged, but technology and growth exposure do not look as defensively positioned as the S&P 500. That may suggest investors are still willing to own mega-cap tech risk, while using broader index hedges to protect against macro downside.This is especially relevant during mega-cap earnings season, when names like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Nvidia can drive index direction.Small caps remain under pressure from defensive positioningRussell 2000 options also show a defensive tone.The Russell 2000 tracks smaller-cap companies, which are often more sensitive to economic growth, financing conditions, and domestic demand.Heavy put positioning here suggests investors remain cautious on small caps. In simple terms, the market may prefer large, profitable mega-cap companies over smaller cyclical stocks that are more vulnerable if growth slows.Short-term options dominate tradingAnother major theme is the dominance of short-dated options.For E-mini S&P 500 options, the 0-5 day expiry bucket had 3.63 million contracts in volume, far above the other expiry groups.This shows how focused the market is on near-term risk.Short-dated options can make markets more reactive. Around earnings, inflation data, Federal Reserve updates, and geopolitical headlines, traders often use these short-term contracts to quickly hedge or speculate.For beginners, the practical lesson is that intraday and multi-day moves can become sharper when short-dated options activity is elevated. Price may move quickly toward important option strike areas, then reverse just as quickly if positioning changes.Key S&P 500 strike areas to watchThe CME report also shows notable options activity around several strike zones, including approximately:5,8507,090 to 7,1657,2407,4658,550The 5,850 area stands out visually as a major concentration.These strike zones can sometimes act as magnets, resistance areas, support areas, or volatility zones, depending on whether the positioning is mostly calls, puts, spreads, or hedges.Beginners should not treat these levels as guaranteed turning points. Instead, they should treat them as areas where market behavior may become more sensitive.What this means for traders and investorsThe latest CME equities overview leans defensive, but not panic-bearish.The market is still heavily hedged, especially through S&P 500 and Russell 2000 options. However, Nasdaq options are more balanced, which may suggest investors are still willing to hold technology risk while protecting against broader market weakness.That creates a mixed but useful message:Broad-market hedging remains heavy.Small-cap caution remains visible.Mega-cap tech may still be relatively better supported.Short-term options activity can amplify fast price moves.Put-heavy positioning can create both downside risk and upside squeeze potential.The beginner lessonOptions positioning is not a crystal ball. It does not tell us exactly where the market will go next.But it does help us understand the market’s emotional and institutional backdrop.Right now, the message is that investors are not blindly bullish. They are active, tactical, and still carrying protection. At the same time, the less defensive Nasdaq positioning suggests the market has not fully abandoned risk appetite, especially in mega-cap technology.For traders, this means scenario planning matters.If the S&P 500 weakens and key levels break, heavy put positioning may reflect real downside concern. But if earnings hold up and price refuses to fall, the same put-heavy positioning could help fuel a relief rally as hedges are reduced.In short: this is a market that remains cautious underneath the surface, even if the headline index action looks calm. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe strong bullish momentum in the S&P 500 has waned recently as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate brought the attention back to underlying risks. The constant push for a diplomatic resolution instead of another full-fledged war has been supporting the risk sentiment on expectations that a deal would be reached eventually. Nonetheless, the stalemate is causing oil prices to rise, and we are now back around triple digit levels.That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with stock prices at all-time highs Trump might not feel any pressure to concede. Therefore, we might get stuck in a longer consolidation phase until the next major catalyst. This might even set the stage for the next big selloff if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer and oil prices stay elevated, thus forcing the Fed to hike interest rates in the coming months. Today, we have the FOMC policy decision and although the Fed is expected to keep everything unchanged amid the US-Iran uncertainty, there’s a risk of a more hawkish leaning due to resilient US data and a longer than expected US-Iran war. A neutral Fed shouldn’t bring much volatility, but a more hawkish one could trigger a bigger pullback.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the momentum in the S&P 500 has waned recently amid the US-Iran stalemate. The previous all-time high around the 7,040 level might now act as support. If the price pulls back, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the 6,800 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the consolidation has led to a break below the major upward trendline. This generally precedes a bigger pullback or a more extended consolidation before the next move. Again, from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the support to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will wait for a break lower to open the door for new lows.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor resistance zone around the 7,190 level. The sellers will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 7,040 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a rally into new record highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC policy decision. Tomorrow, we get the US Q1 GDP, the US Employment Cost Index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar regained some ground to start the week as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate has taken oil prices back into triple digit levels. That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with US stock prices at all-time highs Trump might not feel any pressure to concede. This might even set the stage for the next US dollar rally if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer and oil prices stay elevated, thus forcing the Fed to hike interest rates in the coming months. Today, we have the FOMC policy decision and although the Fed is expected to keep everything unchanged amid the US-Iran uncertainty, there’s a risk of a more hawkish leaning due to resilient US data and a longer than expected US-Iran war. A neutral Fed shouldn’t bring much volatility, but a more hawkish one could give the greenback a boost.INR:On the INR side, the US-Iran stalemate led to another selloff with the Indian Rupee erasing all the gains since the start of the month and now approaching the record lows. The currency will likely remain under pressure as long as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing into new highs. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR extended the gains yesterday on broad US dollar strength. The natural target for the buyers is the all-time high around the 96.00 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop back into the 94.00 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into new record highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. We can expect the buyers to continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in and target a drop back into the 94.00 support.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will wait for a break to open the door for new lows.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC policy decision. Tomorrow, we get the US Q1 GDP, the US Employment Cost Index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The overall market mood remains tense amid a lack of fresh catalysts from the US-Iran conflict. Talks between the US and Iran remain gridlocked, with both sides not able to come to terms on how to get back to the negotiating table. That led to some nervousness in trading yesterday already with the S&P 500 falling by 0.5% and Nasdaq down 0.9%.So far today, tech shares are keeping steadier but there's not too much in it. S&P 500 futures are flat while Nasdaq futures are just marginally higher by 0.2%. Looking to the day ahead, there is going to be much to play for in US trading later.The key risk event on the economic calendar is the FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged though, playing for time in assessing how to go about the uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.As the war drags on for longer, major central banks remain paralysed in trying to avoid making a policy misstep. It is good to be reminded that central banks are dealing with now is a massive supply shock. And with that in mind, monetary policy is very much ill-equipped to be dealing with that. Raising interest rates will do nothing to resolve the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.So, the playbook right now is all about buying time. But as inflation expectations rise and surging energy prices start to have a more profound impact on the economy and inflation outlook, how long can policymakers afford to wait? That's the key question now.The language from the Fed today is going to be the key thing to watch for as such. That will set the mood for risk trades, barring any headline risks to follow from the US-Iran conflict.All this before we get to major tech earnings after the closing bell later in the day.It is going to be a blockbuster day with four of the 'Magnificent Seven' set to report. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are all slated to deliver their latest earnings snapshot before Apple rounds things off tomorrow.So even if investors might feel jittery from the lack of progress in US-Iran talks and potential Fed messaging, there's still a safety net to fall back on. That provided big tech can come to the rescue once again and deliver against lofty AI expectations.I put up a light preview on that earlier here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The FOMC is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with no change to the statement. The base case is that this is going to be a non-event given the uncertainty around the Middle East situation and Powell's final press conference.The US data since the last FOMC meeting in March has been remarkably strong suggesting underlying economic resilience and even acceleration despite a more pessimistic future outlook caused by the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure.The Fed eased monetary policy in the second half of 2025 mainly due to a weakening labour market on worries that it could deteriorate faster and eventually cause a significant slowdown in the economy. In 2026, we've been getting better and better labour market data (excluding the February NFP), with continuing jobless claims and weekly ADP data showing a meaningful improvement. This has led to a repricing in dovish expectations and eventually all the rate cut bets were erased once the US-Iran war broke out. The market is now seeing the Fed remaining on hold at least until July 2027. On the inflation side, the Fed has been missing its 2% target since 2021 and the reluctance to adopt a clear hawkish bias kept the market in a dovish reaction function. Financial conditions never really tightened enough to bring inflation sustainably back to target. Inflation continues to run closer to 3% and the US-Iran war is expected to add more upward pressure.On the growth side, the negative supply shock is expected to weigh on economic activity which is giving the Fed a reason to stay on hold for longer as rate hikes wouldn't resolve the root cause of inflation (Strait of Hormuz closure).The problem for the Fed would be rising inflation expectations. In the markets, there's already a consensus view that the Fed has abandoned its 2% target and it's now basically uses a range framework like the RBA keeping inflation between 2 and 3%. They are not determined enough to squeeze it back to 2% if it means more labour market pain.If the US-Iran stalemate were to extend for much longer keeping oil prices around triple digit levels, inflation expectations could start feeding into higher wage growth if financial conditions remain loose and the economy stays resilient. That could turn into an even uglier situation once the US-Iran war is resolved as economic activity would pick up strongly and substitute cost-push with demand-pull inflation.This brings us to Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair. The expectations are for him to remain neutral and not offering any forward guidance to give the next Fed Chair (Kevin Warsh) flexibility. Even though Powell has been undoubtedly a great Fed Chair who had to navigate lots of economic shocks, he has failed his mission of bringing inflation sustainably back to target.I hope he remains on the board until 2028 and helps his colleagues with the last mile. The next chapter is not going to be about Warsh, it's going to be about the FOMC. The board will have more influence than the Fed Chair on markets expectations, and Fed Watching skills are going to be very valuable. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Final consumer confidence -20.6 vs -20.6 prelimEconomic confidence 93.0 vs 95.2 expected (Prior 96.2)Industrial confidence -7.7 vs -7.2 expected (Prior -7.0)Services confidence 0.9 vs 3.5 expected (Prior 4.1)Consumer inflation expectations 49.1 vs 43.5 priorWell, that's not a good look as surging energy prices continue to exert heavy pressure on the euro area economic outlook. And by the looks of things, consumers are definitely not feeling optimistic whatsoever about the situation.Inflation expectations continue to shoot up, underscoring the severity of the mood on the ground. As mentioned before, physical prices for oil and gas are still at extreme levels and that is what translates to pain for consumers and businesses.The reading above has jumped up to 49.1, marking the highest since April 2022. That was during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, so we're pretty much seeing a repeat of the kind of nervousness in terms of consumer inflation expectations.Meanwhile, economic sentiment is also taking a big knock as it falls to 93.0 in April. That is the softest reading since November 2020. Ouch.The longer this drags on, the more difficult it will be for the euro area economy to stomach this kind of surging price pressure. Given the circumstances, the ECB might be compelled to act just because they feel they have to do something. But up against a supply shock, I'm still not convinced that taking action will do anything to help given their current predicament. From earlier this week: Major central banks are up against a very tough task in navigating monetary policy next This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar regained some ground to start the week as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate has taken oil prices back into triple digit levels. That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with US stock prices at all-time highs Trump might not feel any pressure to concede. This might even set the stage for the next US dollar rally if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer and oil prices stay elevated, thus forcing the Fed to hike interest rates in the coming months. Today, we have the FOMC policy decision and although the Fed is expected to keep everything unchanged amid the US-Iran uncertainty, there’s a risk of a more hawkish leaning due to resilient US data and a longer than expected US-Iran war. A neutral Fed shouldn’t bring much volatility, but a more hawkish one could give the greenback a boost.CAD:On the CAD side, the currency has erased all US-Iran war losses as the bullish US dollar bets got unwound. Looking ahead, there are several risks for the CAD ranging from a hawkish BoC amid sluggish economy and the CUSMA renegotiations.Today, we have the BoC policy decision where the central bank is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. The central bank will likely maintain a cautious stance and a "wait and see" approach.The BoC will also release new economic forecasts which are expected to mirror the other central banks' outlooks, with upward revision for inflation and downward revision for growth.All in all, the decision is unlikely to bring much volatility as the central bank will likely stress data-dependency and avoid pre-committing to any rate path.The market is pricing in a rate hike in the fourth quarter of 2026, so traders will focus on any change in tone and communication that could point to an earlier than expected rate hike or a strong pushback against market's pricing.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is consolidating right between the two major zones. If we get a pullback into the resistance zone around the 1.3750 level, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 1.3550 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to open the door for a rally into the 1.39 handle next.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a major downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 1.3750 resistance zone.USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback. The buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into the resistance, while the sellers will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 1.3550 support next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the BoC and FOMC policy decisions. Tomorrow, we get the monthly Canada’s GPD, US Q1 GDP, the US Employment Cost Index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Here are all the state readings released around the same time:Bavaria April CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y priorBrandenburg CPI +% vs +2.8% y/y prior (no data yet)Saxony CPI +3.0% vs +2.6% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% y/y priorHesse CPI +% vs +2.9% y/y prior (no data yet)The estimates reaffirm a slight uptick in headline inflation. But at the balance, we might see the national reading later come in around 2.8% to 2.9%. So, that might be just a touch softer than the 3.0% expectation from economists. That being said, even at that region it will still mark the highest headline annual inflation in Germany since January 2024. And if it does touch the 3.0% mark, that will be the highest since December 2023.Overall, surging energy prices is just continuing to leave its mark on consumer prices. And with it already feeding through to higher input cost inflation, it will only be a matter of time before it hits harder on core prices too. That especially as the Middle East conflict continues to drag on for longer. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold has extended the losses yesterday after a technical breakout of the recent consolidation. The main thing that’s been weighing on precious metals has been the hawkish central banks amid the renewed inflation risk.That looks unlikely to change anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open the Strait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with US stock prices at all-time highs Trump might not feel any pressure to concede. This might even set the stage for the next big selloff if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer and oil prices stay elevated, thus forcing the Fed to hike interest rates in the coming months. Today, we have the FOMC policy decision and although the Fed is expected to keep everything unchanged amid the US-Iran uncertainty, there’s a risk of a more hawkish leaning due to resilient US data and a longer than expected US-Iran war. A neutral Fed shouldn’t bring much volatility, but a more hawkish one could add more pressure on gold.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold extended the losses as the US-Iran stalemate pushed oil prices back into triple digit levels. We are trading right in the middle of the two key trendlines, so there’s no clear level where to lean on here. We need to zoom in to see some more details.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price reached the first key swing level at 4,552 and started to consolidate. We have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the 5,000 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline. Nonetheless, we can expect the buyers to continue to step in around the 4,552 level to keep targeting the trendline, while a break lower will likely trigger a selloff into the 4350 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC policy decision. Tomorrow, we get the US Q1 GDP, the US Employment Cost Index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +3.4%HICP +3.5% vs +3.5% y/y expectedPrior +3.4%There is a little bit of good news here as Spanish headline annual inflation comes in softer than estimated. That being said, the EU-harmonised reading did reflect a jump to 3.5% from 3.4% in the month before. So, one can argue that it is a bit mixed.However, at least core annual inflation is seen pushing down a little to 2.8%. And that is softer than the 2.9% estimate seen in March previously. That being said, it still marks a notable increase in recent months with core annual inflation having been around 2.3% to 2.4% in the middle of last year.Overall, the ECB still cannot rest on its laurels. Headline inflation is keeping higher and is expected to pick up further. And in turn, higher energy prices are expected to feed through to other parts of the economy in due time. That especially as the US-Iran conflict prolongs further.But all things considered, I'm not a fan of central banks using monetary policy to fight back against supply shocks. So, the ECB definitely has their work cut out for them as they look to navigate through this landscape. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.