Elev8, a global contract for difference (CFD) broker, has been honoured with two awards by FXDailyInfo, a financial news portal. The company was named the 'Best Trading Experience Broker' and the 'Best Trading Platform Provider', recognising its success in creating a comprehensive, efficient, and user-centric ecosystem for retail traders with Elev8Trader, a trading platform, at its core.A new standard in trading technologyThese recognitions reflect Elev8's evolution from a traditional market intermediary to a fintech-driven organisation. The 'Best Trading Platform Provider' award specifically highlights Elev8's commitment to enhancing a modern trading platform, Elev8Trader, which constitutes the basis of the broker's ecosystem.While Elev8 fully supports MT4 and MT5 terminals for traders who need them, Elev8Trader represents the broker's primary environment for delivering an integrated, high-performance experience. Full control over the technology stack ensures high standards of security, reliability and performance, while offering the creative freedom to seamlessly integrate AI tools without technical limitations.Enhancing the trading workflowThe 'Best Trading Experience Broker' accolade reflects Elev8's consistent focus on delivering an efficient and trader-centric experience. The Elev8Trader platform addresses a core challenge in modern trading: the fragmentation of tools and data sources. Instead of switching between separate applications, Elev8Trader users seamlessly navigate the solution that incorporates all essential stages of the trading journey into a single, fluid process.The platform's architecture focuses on knowledge centralisation, with live quotes, an economic calendar, educational materials, market commentary, trading ideas, and a trading terminal, all accessible without leaving the app. This streamlined approach was a primary factor in Elev8's recognition as having superior trading experience, as it eliminates distractions and decision fatigue.Key features contributing to this universal solution include:Centralised analytics: Access to educational materials and expert market insights directly within the terminal.AI-powered tools: Integration of AI, such as the pattern recognition tool, directly into the charts to simplify technical analysis and enable traders to recognise actionable setups faster.Human-expert synergy: Through Space, an advanced analytics and skill development hub, traders receive real-time commentary from financial experts. Features like 'Copy to my chart' and 'Trade now' allow users to act on professional insights instantly.Future commitmentReceiving these awards from FXDailyInfo confirms Elev8's progress in building a trading environment that prioritises clarity, efficiency, and trader success. By focusing on reducing traders' cognitive load and providing a fully customised environment, Elev8 broker continues to set a benchmark for a modern, data-driven trading experience. Elev8 remains committed to further innovation and refining its ecosystem to meet evolving client needs and maintain the highest standards of service in the CFD industry.Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Elev8 does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.Elev8 is a global broker that takes trading to a new level. Elev8 provides traders with an ecosystem designed to meet their needs, featuring a wide range of instruments, analytical and educational tools, integrated AI solutions, and responsive customer support. As a socially responsible broker, Elev8 funds various charitable projects and humanitarian efforts worldwide. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we get the preliminary CPI reports for Spain and Germany. Before the German CPI, we will get the German states figures which generally give clues on the national CPI data. The national CPI is essentially a weighted average of the states.Inflation is expected to ease a bit on a monthly basis but still remain elevated due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. The data isn't going to change anything for the ECB at this point as the central bank has already pre-committed to a hold as they gather more data and hope for a resolution before their next meeting in June. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the BoC and FOMC policy decisions. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. The central bank will likely maintain a cautious stance and a "wait and see" approach amid sluggish economy and inflationary risks stemming from US-Iran war.The BoC will also release new economic forecasts which are expected to mirror the other central banks' outlooks, with upward revision for inflation and downward revision for growth.The Fed is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with no major change to the statement. We won't get the Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting, so the focus will quickly turn to the last Fed Chair Powell's press conference.With the market not pricing in any rate cut until July 2027, Powell has no reason to influence interest rates expectations at this point. The attention will be mostly on whether he emphasises the potential for a rate hike in the coming months given resilient US data and prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There are just a few expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1695-00 levels. Once again, the expiries here may limit price movements closer to the figure level in the session ahead. However, just be wary that the main driver of trading sentiment remains US-Iran headlines at this stage. So, that will be the bigger factor influencing price action if we are to see any notable headlines cross the wires today.But considering the more tepid mood in Europe that we tend to see, the expiries could offer a bit part role in keeping a more muted range for EUR/USD before we get to US trading at least.Besides that, month-end flows will also be a consideration in the sessions ahead. So, just be wary of that as we count down to a holiday-shortened week for European traders as well. A bit of a reminder that we will have the ECB policy decision tomorrow before most markets in Europe will be closed in observance of Labor Day.Circling back to EUR/USD, the more important floor level at the moment remains the 200-day moving average at 1.1675. Meanwhile, the short-term ceiling is seen at the 200-hour moving average around 1.1734 currently. So, that is keeping price action more locked in as well awaiting a clearer catalyst from US-Iran developments.For now, it seems that talks are still gridlocked with both sides not wanting to see eye to eye. US president Trump is even threatening an "indefinite blockade" as he tries to spin the notion that he is the one in charge of the Strait of Hormuz now. Go figure.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

After the jump in headline inflation in March, we are to see that continue in April. Surging energy prices remain the main culprit as households and businesses have to deal with the fallout from the Middle East conflict.As mentioned before, the price increase that your every day consumer and business have to deal with is very different to what we see on our screens in markets. The latter is prices for futures contracts while the former is what people are actually needing to pay at the pump and/or to secure oil and gas shipments. And there is a massive premium still for physical oil barrels especially.In turn, that is translating to price hikes and a squeeze on households while businesses are dealing with a surge in input cost inflation. Tough times.And with the Strait of Hormuz staying closed and the war set to extend to ten weeks soon enough, the toll that is being paid continues to mount exponentially.For Germany, headline annual inflation is expected to climb further to 3.0% in April. That will mark the highest reading since December 2023.As for core annual inflation, that was seen at 2.5% in March and keeping steadier last month. That was only the case because the first hit is from energy prices, which are excluded from the reading. But as cost push inflation translates more strongly to broader goods categories, expect that to eventually feed to core prices too. And the longer the Middle East conflict drags on, the higher it will be for the chances of that becoming more embedded into the economy and inflation outlook.Here's the agenda for today:0800 GMT - North Rhine Westphalia0800 GMT - Hesse0800 GMT - Bavaria0800 GMT - Baden Wuerttemberg0800 GMT - Saxony1200 GMT - Germany national preliminary figuresDo note that the releases don't exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

While US-Iran developments might still be the biggest risk to market sentiment, it isn't the only game in town this week. As we look to round off April trading, key earnings releases are also part of the picture alongside potential month-end shenanigans. On the former, it is going to be a massive day up ahead in Wall Street.That as we see some very big names lined up on the agenda. In particular, four of the 'Magnificent Seven' will be reporting today after the close. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are all slated to deliver their latest earnings snapshot before Apple rounds things off tomorrow.Investors will be heavily watching and scrutinising to see if the billions in capital expenditure poured into AI will translate into more meaningful revenue growth. If not, there might be a negative response especially if capex guidance is revised higher for the quarter ahead while revenue numbers stall.Tech shares have seen a wicked rebound in the past month with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh record highs last week. And that is despite the pressure and negative drag from tensions in the Middle East towards the global economy.So, today is pretty much "judgement day" if you want to call it that. Can the earnings releases deliver and vindicate the bullish rebound in markets over the past few weeks? Or is this going to be where the cookie crumbles?Zooming in specifically, here is what to watch for each of the big four names today:Alphabet: Google Cloud performance and any word on Gemini impacting search marginsAmazon: The usual i.e. AWS performance and how it compares in the battle against AzureMeta: Ad revenue and how AI expenditure is translating to further gains in this spaceMicrosoft: Azure performance and Copilot/AI showing (is it slowing as it seems?)Besides that, look out for any word on capex guidance and we will have to take that in together with the numbers story from the key metrics above. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Looking at the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq performance, and the fact that even the SpaceX IPO plans are still moving ahead, it might seem like the geopolitical noise has faded and everything is back to normal. But in reality, nothing has materially changed over the past couple of weeks. Talks lead to nothing, and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed.As for this apparent indifference to negative news, investors seem to be following a strategy of buying every dip, hoping for more “TACOs” from the U.S. president, as has been happening lately, with delays in escalation in favor of so-called negotiations.At the same time, confidence is bolstered by a strong earnings season. So far, more than 80% of companies have beaten expectations, with first-quarter earnings growth of around 16%. Even Tesla, for which expectations were quite low, managed to surprise on the upside: $22.39 billion in revenue, up 15.8% year over year, earnings per share of $0.41 versus the expected $0.36, improved energy margins, and a solid outlook for deliveries. Still, the company’s plan to increase capex to $25 billion in 2026, nearly triple the $8.5 billion it spent in 2025, pushed the stock down.As for this week’s Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta reports, investors already expect solid numbers. The thing is that beating estimates alone may not cut it anymore. Markets want to see real traction: stronger cloud growth, tangible AI monetization, and, above all, profitability. Any hint of rising costs could trigger a negative reaction. Given their outsized weight in the indices, weakness here could easily spill over into the broader market.Now, even if earnings don’t disappoint, the market still needs fresh catalysts to keep pushing higher, and those are in short supply right now.On central banks, for example, expectations are muted at best. Neither the ECB nor the Bank of England is likely to deliver anything dovish. Persistent inflation risks, largely tied to the ongoing energy situation, limit their room to maneuver. If anything, further tightening remains a possibility.The Fed is not in a much better position. Inflation is picking up again, so no major policy shifts are expected in the near term. Jerome Powell, potentially heading into his final stretch as Fed Chair, is also unlikely to sound particularly dovish. As for a possible successor like Kevin Warsh, even if he leans toward a rate cut, it would not make much difference without broader support, since decisions ultimately come down to a vote. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

China doubles May fuel exports but volumes stay well below pre-war levelsOil rally gathers pace on blockade extension reports, US dollar firms.Australian dollar flounders after higher than target inflation dataRbnz Gov Breman says Q1 core inflation stable within the 1 - 3% target bandAustralia headline and core inflation above RBA target.PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8608 (vs. estimate at 6.8347)Wall Street Journal: Trump Tells Aides to Prepare for Extended Blockade of IranYuan - Chinese firms locking in exchange rates ahead of record $70bn dividend seasonBessent warns Kharg Island nearing capacity as US tightens Iran oil squeezeUAE exit from OPEC raises fears Kazakhstan and Iraq could be next to leaveNIESR cuts UK growth forecast, warns Iran war will keep inflation above target until 2028Chile holds rates but Iran war oil risk echoes across global central banks"The Bank of Japan can't save the yen"Private survey inventory shows a huge headline crude oil draw vs. build expectedCanada trims growth forecasts, posts smaller-than-expected deficit in spring statementSummary:Japanese markets were closed for Showa Day, thinning regional liquidity and removing cash UST trading from the sessionTrump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended, indefinite blockade of Iran following Situation Room discussions, with the president viewing renewed bombing or disengagement as higher-risk optionsA senior US official said the blockade is straining Iran's ability to store unsold oil and prompting fresh outreach to Washington; Iran said two days ago it will never discuss its nuclear programme under current conditionsOil traded higher on the blockade news before retracing, with moves remaining relatively containedThe US dollar gained modest ground on the sessionAustralian Q1 CPI surged on energy costs driven by the Middle East conflict, but the trimmed mean core measure came in below forecasts, tempering rate hike expectations. Swaps now price an ~75% probability of an RBA hike at the 5 May meeting, down from 85% before the inflation printThe Australian and New Zealand dollars both lost groundJapan's Showa Day public holiday removed a significant source of regional participation from Wednesday's Asia Pacific session, with the absence of Tokyo leaving liquidity thinner than usual across currency and rates markets and shutting down cash US Treasury trading for the duration.The dominant macro theme remained the Iran conflict and its implications for energy markets and monetary policy. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended, indefinite blockade of Iranian ports following a Monday Situation Room meeting. Trump assessed that resuming the bombing campaign or walking away from the conflict entirely both carried greater risk than maintaining the economic squeeze. A senior US official said the measures are visibly biting, with Iran struggling to store unsold oil and making renewed overtures to Washington. The White House framed the blockade as a lever to force Iranian capitulation on the nuclear issue. Iran, for its part, said two days ago it would not discuss its nuclear programme under the current conditions, leaving the diplomatic picture firmly deadlocked.Oil markets reacted to the blockade news with modest gains before retracing, with price moves remaining orderly rather than dramatic. The US dollar edged higher on the session.In Australia, first quarter consumer price data delivered a mixed picture. Headline inflation surged as Middle East-driven energy costs fed through into fuel prices, but the trimmed mean core measure, which strips out the most volatile components including petrol, came in high but more subdued. Headline and core are well above the 2-3% RBA target range. Analysts noted that petrol prices have retreated in recent weeks toward pre-conflict levels. Rate markets moved to reflect the softer core reading, with swaps pricing a 75% probability of a May hike, down from 851% immediately before the data. The Australian and New Zealand dollars both weakened on the session. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China has approved 500,000 metric tons of refined fuel exports for May, nearly double April's quota but still well below pre-war levels as Beijing maintains export controls, trading sources say. Summary:China has set May refined fuel exports at 500,000 metric tons for regions outside Hong Kong, nearly double the April allocation, trading sources saidExports include diesel, jet fuel and gasoline, with the government designating both volumes and destinationsRecipients include Cambodia, Laos, Australia, Bangladesh, Maldives and MyanmarDespite the monthly increase, volumes remain well below pre-war levels due to export restrictions introduced after the outbreak of the Iran conflictChina introduced fuel export controls as the Middle East war disrupted global energy flows, with Beijing prioritising domestic supply security and treating export quotas as a policy leverPrior to the conflict, China was one of Asia's largest refined fuel exporters, with monthly shipments running into the millions of metric tons and playing a key role in meeting regional diesel and jet fuel demandChina has approved 500,000 metric tons of refined fuel exports for May to regions outside Hong Kong, nearly doubling the reduced volumes allocated for April, according to trading sources with direct knowledge of the matter. While the increase offers modest relief to regional buyers, shipments remain a fraction of pre-war levels as Beijing keeps its export control framework firmly in place.The approved volumes cover diesel, jet fuel and gasoline, with the Chinese government centrally designating both the quantities and the destination markets. Countries including Cambodia, Laos, Australia, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Myanmar are among those expected to receive allocations, reflecting Beijing's practice of treating fuel exports as a managed policy instrument rather than leaving distribution to commercial flows.China introduced controls on refined fuel exports following the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which sent global energy markets into turmoil and prompted Beijing to prioritise domestic supply security. Before the war, China was one of the most significant sources of refined products for the broader Asian region, with monthly export volumes routinely running into the millions of metric tons. At that scale, Chinese fuel played a critical role in meeting diesel and jet fuel demand across Southeast and South Asia, markets that have limited domestic refining capacity and rely heavily on imports to meet consumption needs.The sharp reduction in Chinese export quotas since the conflict began has compounded the supply disruption already flowing from the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, squeezing regional refined product markets and pushing crack spreads higher. For smaller economies in the region, the loss of affordable Chinese fuel supply has translated into tangible cost pressures at a moment when energy inflation is already running hot.The modest increase in May's quota suggests Beijing is willing to allow slightly more fuel to flow outward as its own inventory position stabilises, but the continued use of centralised allocation rather than open export licensing signals that the controls are far from being wound back. With the Middle East conflict showing no sign of resolution and the Hormuz disruption persisting, China's fuel export policy is likely to remain a significant and closely watched variable for Asian energy markets in the months ahead.---The modest increase in Chinese fuel exports is unlikely to provide meaningful relief to Asian refined product markets. At 500,000 metric tons, May shipments are roughly double April's reduced allocation but remain well below the volumes China was exporting before the outbreak of the Iran conflict triggered Beijing's tightening of export controls. For regional buyers in Cambodia, Laos, Bangladesh, Myanmar and elsewhere, the designated volumes offer some comfort but fall well short of replacing the supply disruption caused by the broader Middle East crisis. Diesel and jet fuel markets in Asia are likely to remain tight, supporting regional crack spreads. The fact that Beijing is centrally designating both volumes and destinations underscores the degree to which China is treating fuel exports as a strategic tool rather than a purely commercial decision, adding an additional layer of unpredictability for regional buyers and traders attempting to plan supply chains in an already disrupted market. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Brent rose for an eighth day to above $111 and WTI topped $100 on reports Trump will extend the Iran port blockade. The dollar firmed. Earlier, US crude inventories dropped for a second weekSummary:Brent crude rose for an eighth consecutive day, gaining above $111.75 a barrel, with the more active July contract at $104.84WTI climbed for seven of the last eight sessions, rising to $100.50 after a gain in the prior sessionThe Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday that Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, prolonging supply disruptions from the Middle EastThe Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, remains shut as Iran blocks shipping flows and the US blockades Iranian portsAPI data showed US crude inventories fell 1.79 million barrels for the week ended 24 April, with gasoline stocks down 8.47 million barrels and distillates down 2.60 million barrels, a second consecutive weekly decline across the boardDiplomatic negotiations remain deadlocked, with Iran seeking reparations, sanctions relief and some form of control over the Strait, while Washington demands an end to Tehran's nuclear programmeThe US dollar firmed Oil extended its multi-day rally on Wednesday after reports confirmed that President Trump is preparing to prolong the blockade of Iranian ports, a move that markets interpreted as signalling a further tightening of Middle East supply at an already stretched moment for global crude inventories.Brent futures climbed for an eighth consecutive session, rising to $111.75 a barrel in early Asian trade, with the more actively traded July contract at $104.84. WTI gained to reach $100.50 a barrel. The $100 level for WTI carries psychological weight, and its breach is likely to draw additional momentum from algorithmic and trend-following strategies.The catalyst was a Wall Street Journal report, citing US officials, that Trump has instructed his team to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian ports rather than resuming bombing or accepting Tehran's current diplomatic offer. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil and LNG supplies normally flow, remains shut, with Iran blocking commercial shipping and the US enforcing its own blockade on Iranian port access.Inventory data added fundamental support to the geopolitical premium already embedded in prices. API figures released late Tuesday showed US crude stocks fell by 1.79 million barrels in the week to 24 April, the second consecutive weekly decline. Gasoline inventories dropped by 8.47 million barrels and distillates by 2.60 million barrels, confirming that the Hormuz disruption is translating into real physical tightness rather than sentiment alone.Diplomatically, the two sides remain far apart. Iran is seeking reparations, an easing of sanctions and a degree of control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington insists any deal must address Tehran's nuclear programme. With talks stalled and neither side showing signs of movement, the supply disruption appears set to persist.Elsewhere in markets, the US dollar firmed on the session.---- The combination of an extended US blockade, a shuttered Strait of Hormuz and two consecutive weeks of falling US inventories presents a firmly bullish backdrop for crude. Brent pushing above $111 and WTI clearing $100 are psychologically significant levels that may attract further momentum buying. The inventory data, showing crude stocks down 1.79 million barrels, gasoline down 8.47 million and distillates down 2.60 million, confirms that the Hormuz disruption is drawing on physical supply rather than simply generating paper market volatility. A firmer dollar typically acts as a headwind for dollar-denominated commodities, but oil's geopolitical premium is clearly overwhelming that drag for now. If the blockade is formally extended and no diplomatic breakthrough emerges, the upside in crude remains meaningful, though recession fears and demand destruction at sustained high prices represent the key counterweight. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data is here:Australia headline and core inflation above RBA target.Trimmed Mean (core) was 0.8% q/q vs. 0.9% expected and prior 0.9%. March month headline 4.6% vs. 4.7% expected. This seems to be the narrative for the drip in the AUD.Australia's Treasurer Chalmers says the Treasury expects inflation to peak at higher levels.RBA 25bp hike on May 5 is still live: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RBNZ governor Breman:First quarter measures of core inflation have remained stable within the target band of 1–3%Monetary policy committee continues to keep a close watch on developments in Middle East and incoming data This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'll be back separately with details and implications (TL;DR ... May rate hike). Australia CPI Q1 2026 1.4% q/q (expected 1.4%, prior 0.6%) ... sharpest rise since ​late 2023and 4.1% y/y (expected 4.1%, prior 3.6%) Trimmed Mean (core) 0.8% q/q (expected 0.9%, prior 0.9%) and 3.5% y/y (expected 3.5%, prior 3.4%)The Q1 data is the main focus.---CPI for March month +1.4% m/m (prior 0.0%) and +4.6% y/y (expected 4.8%, prior 3.7%) Trimmed Mean (core) +0.3% m/m (prior +0.2%) and +3.3% y/y (expected +3.3%, prior +3.3%)The figures for March month alone are much uglier. ---Earlier:Iran war is supercharging inflation and putting a May RBA rate rise firmly on the table.Summary:CBA forecasts headline CPI rose 1.1% in March, lifting the annual rate to 4.6%CBA expects trimmed mean inflation of 0.9% for Q1 2026, pushing the annual rate to 3.5%, which would mark the third consecutive quarter at that pace or aboveCBA calls for a 25bp RBA rate rise in May to 4.35%, though flags the decision as line ball between inflation and growth risksWestpac estimates a 1.5% quarterly CPI gain, or 4.2% annually, with risks seen as balancedWestpac forecasts trimmed mean of 0.93% for Q1, lifting the annual rate to 3.5% from 3.4%Both banks attribute the bulk of the energy shock so far to auto fuel, with the Iran conflict having begun on 28 FebruaryWestpac warns the impact will broaden significantly in Q2 and through H2 2026, with trimmed mean seen hitting 1.0% per quarter and the annual rate peaking at 4.0%The forecasts from CBA and Westpac carry clear hawkish implications for Australian rates. If trimmed mean inflation prints at 0.9% for the quarter and the annual rate lifts to 3.5% as both banks expect, the RBA will face significant pressure to act at its May meeting. CBA explicitly calls for a 25 basis point hike to 4.35%, though it acknowledges the decision will be close. Bond markets are likely to price in a higher probability of a May move on the back of these notes, pressuring the short end of the curve. The Australian dollar could find support if the RBA is seen moving while other central banks remain on hold. The longer-term concern flagged by Westpac, that the Iran conflict represents the largest energy shock since the 1970s oil crises, suggests inflation risks are skewed to the upside well into the second half of 2026, limiting the scope for any subsequent easing cycle. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.Injects 25.9bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Analysts warn the yuan faces earlier-than-usual seasonal weakness as Chinese firms hedge nearly $70bln in dividends, with June's $24.1bln peak a record. (pro tip - Much hedging is likely already done).Post from earlier this month:Yuan seen strengthening despite seasonal headwinds as fundamentals and flows dominate.Summary:Mainland Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong have announced dividends totalling nearly $70 billion over the coming months, with June's estimated $24.1 billion payout a record for the monthJuly and August distributions are projected at $15.4 billion and $19.5 billion respectivelyAnalysts say lower hedging costs and cheaper forward rates are prompting firms to convert FX earlier than usual, potentially bringing yuan weakness forwardThe PBOC has eased rules to reduce forex costs while maintaining a firm yuan fixing, signalling it is monitoring the situation closelyA note of caution is warranted: the scale of hedging disclosed publicly suggests corporate treasuries have likely already executed a substantial portion of their FX conversions, meaning spot market pressure may be more limited than headline figures implyThe yuan typically faces seasonal selling pressure during the summer dividend season, but the earlier timing and record payout size make this year's episode worth watchingThe Chinese yuan is expected to face its familiar summer selling pressure earlier than usual this year, as mainland firms listed in Hong Kong move to lock in exchange rates ahead of a record dividend season. Analysts point to lower hedging costs and cheaper forward rates as the catalysts bringing FX conversion demand forward in the calendar. However, a degree of caution is warranted in reading too much into the scale of the numbers being cited.Mainland firms listed in Hong Kong have announced shareholder distributions totalling nearly $70 billion over the coming months. The peak arrives in June, when payouts are estimated to reach $24.1 billion, a record for that month. July and August are expected to follow with $15.4 billion and $19.5 billion respectively, sustaining elevated conversion demand well into the third quarter.The mechanics are straightforward. Firms earning revenues in yuan but paying dividends to offshore shareholders in Hong Kong dollars or US dollars need to convert currency, generating seasonal selling pressure on the yuan. When hedging costs fall and forward rates become more attractive, treasuries tend to act earlier, compressing what might otherwise be a gradual process into a shorter window.The People's Bank of China has moved to ease rules around foreign exchange costs while simultaneously maintaining a firm daily yuan fixing, a combination that signals Beijing is aware of the seasonal dynamics and is attempting to manage them without allowing disorderly depreciation.Here, however, the market should read carefully. It is highly unlikely that institutions with hedging programmes of this scale would have allowed details to become public without having already executed a substantial portion of the underlying FX conversions. Corporate treasuries and their banking counterparties do not advertise large directional trades in advance. The implication is that a meaningful share of the yuan pressure implied by the dividend pipeline may already be in the market, absorbed quietly through forward contracts and options over recent weeks.That does not eliminate the risk entirely. The residual conversion demand, combined with any unhedged exposure, is still large enough in absolute terms to generate episodic pressure on the yuan, particularly if the PBOC allows slightly more flexibility around its daily fixing. But traders pricing in a sharp or sudden move based on the headline $70 billion figure alone may be overstating the remaining impact.---The info is modestly bearish for the yuan in the near term, with the key caveat that much of the hedging activity flagged by analysts is likely already well advanced. Banks and corporate treasuries rarely publicise the scale of planned FX conversions without having executed a significant portion of the trade, meaning the yuan may have already absorbed some of this seasonal pressure without it being fully visible in spot markets. Analysts warn the yuan faces earlier-than-usual seasonal weakness as Chinese firms hedge nearly $70bln in dividends, with June's $24.1bln peak a record. Much hedging is likely already done.That said, the sheer scale of the dividend pipeline, nearly $70 billion in total with a $24.1 billion peak in June, is large enough to generate meaningful conversion demand even if hedging is staggered. The PBOC's firm daily fixing remains the primary counterweight, and Beijing has shown a consistent willingness to lean against disorderly yuan moves. Lower hedging costs and cheaper forward rates may also spread the demand more evenly across the coming months, diluting the peak impact. On balance, the pressure is real but likely more gradual and less acute than the headline figures suggest. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent says Kharg Island is nearing storage capacity, costing Iran around $170mn per day in lost revenue and risking permanent damage to its oil infrastructure. Summary:Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal, is approaching storage capacityHe warned this will force Iran to reduce oil production, resulting in roughly $170 million per day in lost revenueBessent said the situation risks causing permanent damage to Iran's oil infrastructureThe Treasury has further sanctioned much of Iran's shadow fleet of tankers used to circumvent existing restrictionsWashington has threatened to cut off from the US banking system any country or company that continues to buy Iranian oilThe remarks appear to be deliberate public messaging rather than breaking developments, designed to reinforce economic pressure on Tehran amid ongoing nuclear negotiationsUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has issued a pointed public warning about the deteriorating situation at Kharg Island, Iran's principal oil export terminal, in what appears to be a calculated piece of economic pressure messaging from Washington rather than a disclosure of new developments.Bessent said the island, which handles the overwhelming majority of Iran's crude exports, is approaching storage capacity. When that limit is reached, he argued, Tehran will have no choice but to cut production, a move he said would cost the regime approximately $170 million per day in lost revenue. He added that the situation risks inflicting permanent damage on Iran's oil infrastructure, a longer-term consequence that would outlast any near-term diplomatic resolution.The Treasury has also moved to tighten the financial noose around Iran's export network, sanctioning a significant portion of the shadow fleet of tankers that Tehran has relied upon to move oil to buyers willing to circumvent Western restrictions. Crucially, Bessent warned that any country or company continuing to purchase Iranian crude risks being cut off from the US banking system, a threat directed primarily at Asian refiners that have kept Iranian export volumes from collapsing entirely.The remarks are framed as targeting the financial heart of the Iranian government, with oil revenues long serving as the primary funding mechanism for the regime's budget and its broader regional activities.The timing and tone of the statement suggest it is as much about signalling resolve as it is about revealing new intelligence. With nuclear negotiations ongoing and oil markets already on edge over Middle East supply risks, Washington appears to be using the Kharg Island situation to reinforce the message that the economic cost to Tehran is compounding, and that the window for a deal may be narrowing alongside Iran's export capacity.---The $170 million per day revenue loss figure, if sustained, would accelerate pressure on Tehran's finances. The threat to cut off any country or company buying Iranian oil from the US banking system is a significant escalation in secondary sanctions pressure, aimed squarely at the buyers, particularly in Asia, that have kept Iranian exports flowing. That threat alone could prompt some refiners to reduce Iranian purchases, further tightening supply. The framing of permanent infrastructure damage adds a longer-term supply dimension that markets will need to factor in. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Dow Jones/Market Watch cite analysts who say Kazakhstan and possibly Iraq could follow the UAE out of OPEC, though Baghdad has denied any plans to leave. Analysts warn a weaker OPEC will struggle to stabilise oil prices long term.Summary:The UAE announced it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May, citing longstanding frustration with production quotas that kept it well below its capacity of up to 4.8 million barrels a dayKazakhstan is identified as the next most likely candidate to leave, having repeatedly chafed under its quota of 1.6 million barrels a day, though its excess capacity is far smaller than the UAE'sIraq is flagged as another potential departure risk, though Iraqi officials told Reuters on Tuesday the country has no plans to leaveColumbia University's Antoine Halff described the UAE as the most likely candidate to exit for quite some time, and noted Kazakhstan might actually gain influence within OPEC now that the UAE has goneCIBC's Rebecca Babin compared OPEC to the Federal Reserve of the oil market, arguing that smaller producers benefit from the price stability the cartel providesRystad Energy warned that near-term price effects of the UAE's departure may be muted given Hormuz disruption, but that a structurally weaker OPEC will struggle to calibrate supply and stabilise prices over timeIran's attacks on fellow members' energy infrastructure were described as an unprecedented challenge for the organisation, which has survived wars between members beforeThe UAE's decision to leave OPEC has shaken the oil cartel, but energy experts say the more important question now is who might follow. While an imminent collapse of the organisation is not widely expected, Kazakhstan and potentially Iraq are being watched as the two members with the clearest reasons to walk away.Of the two, Kazakhstan is considered the more credible near-term risk. The central Asian producer has long resisted its OPEC quota, repeatedly pushing production beyond agreed limits in a pattern that closely mirrors the frustrations that drove the UAE to the exit. The UAE was constrained to around 3.5 million barrels a day despite a production capacity of between 4.7 and 4.8 million barrels a day, a gap that made membership increasingly costly. Kazakhstan's excess capacity is more modest, but the grievance is similar.Iraq was also flagged as a potential departure risk, but Baghdad moved quickly to dismiss the speculation, with officials telling Reuters on Tuesday that the country has no plans to leave.Antoine Halff of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy noted that with the UAE now gone, Kazakhstan's influence within the bloc could actually increase, making membership more attractive rather than less. Rebecca Babin of CIBC Private Wealth compared OPEC to the Federal Reserve of the oil market, arguing that smaller producers value the price stability it provides even when quotas constrain output.Rystad Energy cautioned that the near-term price impact of the UAE's departure may be limited while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. The longer-term concern is structural. A cartel with less concentrated spare capacity and eroding compliance will find it progressively harder to manage supply and anchor prices, undermining a function that has underpinned global energy markets for more than half a century. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NIESR cuts UK 2026 GDP forecast to 0.9% from 1.4%, sees inflation peaking above 4% in 2027 and warns of recession risk if the Iran war worsens. BoE seen hiking once to 4% in July. Summary:NIESR, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, cut its UK GDP growth forecast to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.0% for 2027, down sharply from February projections of 1.4% and 1.3%Inflation is forecast to accelerate to 4.1% at the start of 2027 from 3.3% currently, driven by surging oil and gas prices, and is not expected to return to the 2% target until 2028Unemployment is projected to peak at 5.5% in Q4 2026, slightly above NIESR's February forecast, with wage growth slowing to 3.3% in 2027NIESR expects the BoE to raise rates once in July 2026, taking Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75%In an adverse scenario involving a prolonged conflict and higher oil prices, NIESR warns of a high likelihood of recession in H2 2026 and says the BoE could need to hike by 150bp to 5.25%NIESR director David Aikman said the conflict has exposed the UK's continued vulnerability to global energy shocksChancellor Rachel Reeves is warned she will need to run primary budget surpluses, last achieved in 2001, to address Britain's deteriorating debt trajectoryThe BoE is due to publish updated forecasts on Thursday alongside an expected decision to hold ratesThe National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Britain's oldest and most respected independent economic think tank, has sharply downgraded its outlook for the UK economy, warning that the Iran war is driving inflation well above the Bank of England's target and will keep it there until 2028 while simultaneously choking off growth.NIESR, founded in 1938 and widely regarded as one of the most authoritative voices on the British economy, cut its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to just 0.9%, down from 1.4% projected as recently as February. Its 2027 forecast was trimmed to 1.0% from 1.3%. The institute attributed the deterioration directly to the surge in oil and gas prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, which it said has exposed a structural vulnerability in the British economy.On inflation, the picture is troubling. NIESR expects price growth to accelerate from 3.3% currently to 4.1% at the start of 2027, a level that would represent a significant setback for the Bank of England's efforts to return inflation to its 2% target. That target is not seen being met until 2028. Director David Aikman said the conflict had laid bare the fact that the UK remains highly exposed to global energy shocks, a pointed observation given that Britain has endured the highest inflation rate of any advanced economy for much of the past four years.The labour market is expected to weaken in tandem, with unemployment projected to peak at 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and wage growth slowing to 3.3% in 2027 as hiring cools.NIESR's base case for monetary policy is a single 25 basis point rate rise in July, taking Bank Rate to 4% from its current 3.75%. That is a notably more cautious view than financial markets, which on Tuesday were pricing in two to three increases by the end of the year. The Bank of England is due to publish its own updated forecasts on Thursday alongside what is widely expected to be a decision to hold rates.The institute was direct about the risks if the conflict worsens. In an adverse scenario involving a prolonged war and further oil price rises, NIESR warned there was a high likelihood of Britain entering recession in the second half of the year. Under that scenario, the BoE could be forced to raise rates by 150 basis points in total, equivalent to six quarter-point moves, taking Bank Rate to 5.25%. That would represent an aggressive tightening cycle with severe consequences for mortgage holders and economic activity.On the fiscal side, NIESR issued a warning to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is already under pressure to support households facing rising living costs. The think tank said she would need to run primary budget surpluses to bring Britain's debt trajectory under control, a degree of fiscal discipline the country last achieved in 2001 and one that sits uneasily alongside any ambitions to cushion the economic blow from the energy shock. Bank of England meet Thursday April 30. 1100 GMT is 0900 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The decision itself is unlikely to move markets, with the hold unanimous and widely expected. The significance lies in the language. Chile's explicit warning that the Middle East conflict is evolving more adversely than its March baseline assumed adds to a growing body of central bank commentary flagging that the Iran war is reshaping the global inflation outlook in ways that were not fully priced in earlier this year. For commodity-linked currencies and emerging market assets, persistent high oil prices represent a terms-of-trade headwind for importers and a partial tailwind for exporters. Chile, as a major copper producer, has some insulation on the export side, but is exposed as an energy importer. More broadly, the note from Santiago reinforces the message coming from institutions including the RBA and the Bank of Japan, that policymakers are being forced to hold or tighten in response to an externally driven inflation shock, compressing growth prospects in the process. Summary:Chile's central bank, Banco Central de Chile, held its benchmark rate at 4.50% in a unanimous decision, its third consecutive holdThe bank said the prolongation of the Middle East conflict has increased the risk that oil prices will remain elevatedIt warned the war is evolving more adversely than assumed in its March monetary policy report baseline scenarioThe bank said a more adverse Middle East outcome raises the likelihood of worse results for both global inflation and economic activityThe concerns echo those of other central banks, with Australia's CBA and Westpac flagging the Iran conflict as the largest energy shock since the 1970s oil crises, and ING warning the BoJ is unable to shield the yen from energy-driven inflationThe convergence of central bank warnings suggests the Iran war is becoming a defining variable in monetary policy decisions across both developed and emerging economiesChile's central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 4.50% on Tuesday in a unanimous decision, but the real message from Santiago was not about domestic monetary policy. It was a warning about the Iran war, and it is one that an increasing number of central banks around the world are starting to echo.The hold was the third in a row and came as no surprise. What drew attention was the bank's assessment of the external environment. In its statement, the central bank said the prolongation of the Middle East conflict is increasing the risk that oil prices will remain high and that the course of the war has been more adverse than assumed in the baseline scenario of its March monetary policy report. It added that a more negative Middle East outcome raises the likelihood of worse results for both global inflation and economic activity.For a small open economy like Chile, those are not abstract concerns. As an energy importer, the country is directly exposed to elevated oil prices feeding through into domestic costs. At the same time, any slowdown in global economic activity threatens demand for copper, Chile's dominant export and the foundation of its fiscal position.But Chile is far from alone in making this assessment. Across the Pacific, Australian lenders Commonwealth Bank and Westpac have described the Iran conflict as the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s and 1980s, warning that its inflationary impact is broadening and will intensify through the second half of 2026. Both banks are forecasting a rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia in May in response to surging consumer prices.In Japan, ING has warned that the Bank of Japan's reluctance to tighten aggressively enough leaves the yen exposed to an energy-driven inflation shock that is pushing real interest rates deeper into negative territory. The bank sees the yen continuing to weaken, with limited scope for authorities to intervene effectively.The thread connecting Santiago, Sydney and Tokyo is the same: a conflict that broke out in late February is proving stickier, more disruptive and more inflationary than early assessments suggested. Central banks that had hoped to look through temporary energy price spikes are finding that the shock is neither temporary nor narrow. For policymakers already navigating subdued growth, the Iran war is fast becoming the dominant variable in their calculations, and Tuesday's statement from Chile is the latest reminder that its reach extends well beyond the Middle East. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

That headline, "BoJ can't save the yen", is a cracker from ING, straight to the point. ING warns the BoJ cannot save the yen, sees USD/JPY challenging the 2024 high of 162 and flags an outside risk of authorities holding off intervention until the 165 area.Summary:USD/JPY dipped modestly after hawkish dissent at Tuesday's BoJ meeting but ING says the case for sustained yen strength remains unprovenING argues the BoJ was already running an accommodative policy before the Middle East crisis and its slow tightening pace risks pushing real rates further into negative territoryA 25bp BoJ hike in June or July, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, would still leave real rates negative given core inflation expected above 2%ING expects upside pressure on USD/JPY to persist near term, with a steady dollar and a potentially hawkish Fed adding to yen headwindsThe bank sees USD/JPY challenging the 2024 high of 162, with an outside risk that authorities hold intervention until the 165 areaJapanese FX intervention is seen as less potent than in 2024, with speculative yen shorts currently around half the size that triggered the summer 2024 short squeezeING notes the yen remains very cheap to hedge, limiting its appeal even for investors constructive on Japanese equitiesING has warned that the Bank of Japan is not in a position to arrest the yen's decline, arguing that the central bank's cautious approach to tightening leaves the currency increasingly exposed as elevated energy prices push real interest rates deeper into negative territory.The note, published after Tuesday's BoJ policy meeting, acknowledged a modest dip in USD/JPY following hawkish dissent among board members, but dismissed it as insufficient to change the broader picture. ING's central argument is that currency markets are now focused primarily on real interest rates and the willingness of central banks to defend their economies from inflation. On that measure, the BoJ falls short.The bank points out that Japanese monetary policy was already accommodative before the Middle East conflict broke out, and that the central bank's go-slow on rate rises risks compounding the problem. Even a 25 basis point hike at the June or July meeting, which would take the policy rate to 1.00%, would do little to rescue the yen. With core inflation expected to remain above 2% across the BoJ's forecast horizon, such a move would still leave real rates in negative territory. Meanwhile, the BoJ is bracing for a deteriorating terms-of-trade shock from elevated energy costs, an uncomfortable position for a major energy-importing economy.ING draws a comparison with the energy shock of 2022 but notes the current episode has so far been smaller in scale. Nevertheless, it expects negative pressure on the yen and on other Asian energy-importing currencies to dominate through the year, barring a rapid resolution in the Gulf.On the near-term direction of USD/JPY, ING expects upside pressure to persist. A steady dollar through the current quarter, combined with the prospect of a hawkish Federal Reserve, keeps the pair biased higher. ING sees USD/JPY challenging its 2024 peak of 162, with an outside risk that Japanese authorities hold off intervening until the 165 area in order to maximise the impact.That intervention calculus is complicated by positioning. The 2024 episode, in which Japanese authorities sold around 100 billion dollars to trigger a major short squeeze, was effective in part because speculative yen short positions were extremely large. Today those shorts are roughly half the size, which ING argues will limit both the effectiveness and the timing of any future intervention.With negative real yields, a worsening terms-of-trade backdrop and policymakers appearing hesitant to act, ING concludes the yen offers little attraction for currency investors. The fact that it remains cheap to hedge makes it easy for equity investors to sidestep the currency risk, but that dynamic itself reflects just how little confidence markets have in a yen recovery.---ING's note carries clear bearish implications for the yen. With real rates deeply negative and the BoJ seen as unwilling to tighten aggressively enough to offset rising inflation, the path of least resistance for USD/JPY is higher. A potentially hawkish Federal Reserve in the near term adds further upward pressure on the pair. Japanese intervention remains a wildcard, but ING argues its effectiveness is diminished given that speculative yen short positions are roughly half the size they were ahead of the landmark 2024 intervention. That reduces the scope for a violent short squeeze. For broader Asian currency markets, the note highlights that energy-importing economies in the region face similar terms-of-trade headwinds, keeping pressure on currencies beyond the yen. Equity investors with Japanese exposure may find the yen cheap to hedge, but that in itself signals limited confidence in any near-term recovery. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.