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EUR/USD: Soft tone but 1.14 base holds – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD has slipped slightly below yesterday’s low as Dollar strength persists. ECB data show moderating inflation expectations, while President Lagarde signaled caution on rate moves given energy-price risks.

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USD/MXN: Banxico cut leaves Peso exposed – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes that Banxico’s 25 bp rate cut to 6.75% came with largely unchanged inflation forecasts and a projection of a return to target in early 2027.

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GBP/JPY steadies as intervention fears bolster Yen after weak UK data

GBP/JPY trades flat on Friday after slipping earlier in the European session, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened amid rising intervention fears. The move comes as USD/JPY trades within striking distance of the 160.00 level, a key zone that previously prompted action from Japanese authorities.

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United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations above forecasts (3.4%) in March: Actual (3.8%)

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations above forecasts (3.4%) in March: Actual (3.8%)

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United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 51.7 below forecasts (54.1) in March

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 51.7 below forecasts (54.1) in March

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United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.2%) in March

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.2%) in March

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United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 53.3 below forecasts (54) in March

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 53.3 below forecasts (54) in March

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Euro area: War-driven energy shock reshapes ECB path – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer updates Euro area inflation projections incorporating the Iran War and associated energy shock. The bank expects higher Oil and natural gas prices to push headline inflation above 3% in 2026 before easing back to the ECB’s 2% target by 2027.

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USD: Funding-driven support in war-driven stress – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that global risk sentiment is deteriorating as Oil rises, equities and bonds fall, and the Dollar strengthens.

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Brent: Higher range risk and global growth fears – MUFG

Halpenny stresses that the extension of Trump’s pause only on attacks against energy assets, combined with Iran’s limited tanker gestures, suggests the Strait of Hormuz will stay constrained.

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USD/JPY: Policy clarity and intervention risks – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that Bank of Japan policy expectations have changed little versus other G10 central banks, with markets already pricing a gradual tightening path.

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UK Retail Sales contract 0.4% MoM in February vs. 2% growth prior

The United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales declines by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in February after rising 2% in January, revised higher from 1.8%, according to the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday.

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United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (-0.8%) in February: Actual (-0.4%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) above expectations (-0.8%) in February: Actual (-0.4%)

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United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.8%) in February: Actual (-0.4%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.8%) in February: Actual (-0.4%)

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United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 2.5%, above forecasts (2.1%) in February

United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 2.5%, above forecasts (2.1%) in February

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United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) down to 3.4% in February from previous 5.5%

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) down to 3.4% in February from previous 5.5%

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BoJ Review: Japan's estimated natural rate of interest was in the range of around -0.9% to +0.5%

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases its review report on developments in the natural rate of interest and the assessment of the degree of monetary accommodation during the European trading session on Friday.

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GBP/USD: Downside bias capped near 1.3305 – UOB

UOB analysts report GBP/USD easing to around 1.3340, with the intraday bias still lower but momentum not strong enough for a deeper slide. They see declines likely limited to a test of 1.3305, with resistance at 1.3355/1.3375.

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Gold clings to bullish bias amid weaker USD; upside seems limited amid hawkish Fed bets

Gold (XAU/USD) builds on its steady intraday ascent through the early European session on Thursday and touches a fresh daily high, around the $4,465 region in the last hour.

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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $70; 100-SMA breakdown underpins downside

Silver (XAG/USD) is up over 2.5% to near $70.00 during the early European trading session on Friday. The white metal gains sharply, but is still inside Thursday’s trading range, indicating that the broader trend is sideways.

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