India signs New Zealand free trade deal as Modi accelerates global FTA pushPreview: Bank of Japan rate decision knife-edge, Japan inflation runs hotter than expectedCiti says oil flow disruption could continue, Brent could hit US$150 / barrelChina industrial profits surge at fastest pace since September in boost for economyIran proposes Hormuz deal without nuclear talks in bid to break US negotiation deadlockPeople’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.8579 (vs. estimate at 6.8282)Heads up for Japan market holiday this week, and then three the following weekChina imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surgeTrump's 60 Minutes interview has nothing on his war on Iran so farGoldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 oil forecasts. Mid East output loss drive big inventory drawUS futures (Globex) are open. Oil up, stocks down on US-Iran talks stallingIran’s FM said had discussion with Oman on ways to ensure safe transit in Hormuz StraitReports a cargo ship has been attacked south of Bab al-Mandab Strait. Second front openingAn hour after the Globex open Trump will be speaking in an interview on 60 MinutesNorthern Japan early morning earthquake. M6.1Reports that Iran presents three-phase peace framework, with nuclear talks held to lastMonday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 27 April 2026Trump: Iran war's end will come very soon and it will be victoriousNewsquawk Week in Focus: Fed, BoJ, BoE, ECB, BoC, US PCE, GDP and ISM mfg. PMITrump cancels Pakistan trip for Kushner and WitkoffPakistan talks: Iran delivered both their demands and reservations about US demandsAt a glance:Oil opened higher on Globex bids but gains were unwound through the sessionTrump cancelled envoy trip to Pakistan and maintained naval blockade; Iran kept Hormuz closed, lifting oil in Sunday evening US trade; gold and stocks fell on the newsTrump struck a measured tone, saying he was willing to negotiate with Iran by phoneIran passed a new proposal via Pakistani mediators to reopen Hormuz and lift the blockade first, with nuclear talks to follow at a later stageIranian FM Araghchi visited Oman, meeting Sultan Haitham bin Tariq to discuss ending the war, regional stability and safe Hormuz transit; presented a "workable framework" for a permanent end to the conflictReports of a cargo ship attacked south of Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising fears of a second front opening in the Iran conflictAxios publication of the Iran-US proposal gave risk assets a boost and trimmed oil prices; regional equities and US equity index futures on Globex gainedLebanon-Israel ceasefire has broken down with both sides continuing missile exchangesUSD opened higher early in the session but reversed lowerOil markets opened the week on the front foot, with buyers pushing prices higher on Globex at the Sunday open, but the gains proved short-lived as the session wore on and the initial risk premium was gradually unwound.The weekend had set a cautious tone. Trump's decision to cancel the planned trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, combined with Iran's continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, had driven oil higher in Sunday evening US trade, with gold and equities moving lower as investors weighed the implications of a deepening stalemate.Trump's own messaging was less hawkish than his actions implied, however. The US president signalled he was prepared to negotiate with Iran by telephone, a remark that took some of the edge off the geopolitical risk premium and suggested Washington had not entirely closed the door on a diplomatic path forward.Behind the scenes, Iran had passed a new proposal to the White House via Pakistani mediators, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade first, with nuclear negotiations to follow at a later stage. The proposal is designed to bypass deep internal divisions within the Iranian leadership over the scope of nuclear concessions Tehran is willing to offer. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reinforced the diplomatic push with a visit to Muscat, where he met Sultan Haitham bin Tariq to discuss ending the war and advancing regional stability. Araghchi presented what was described as a workable framework for a permanent end to the conflict, with Oman's role as a key mediator front and centre. Safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz was high on the agenda.Adding to the tension, reports emerged of a cargo ship being attacked south of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising concerns that a second front is opening in the broader conflict with Iran and that shipping disruption may extend well beyond Hormuz.The mood in markets shifted when the Iran proposal received wider mainstream coverage following Axios publishing the story. The broader pickup in coverage gave risk assets a meaningful boost, trimming oil prices from their earlier highs while lifting regional equities and US equity index futures on Globex, as traders reassessed the probability of a diplomatic breakthrough.Elsewhere, the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire has broken down, with both sides exchanging missile fire in a further deterioration of the regional security picture. The US dollar opened firmer early in the session but reversed course and pressed lower as the day progressed. ---Still to come:President Trump is set to convene a Situation Room meeting with his senior national security and foreign policy advisers on Monday to assess the deadlocked Iran negotiations and weigh potential next steps in the conflict. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

India and New Zealand have signed a free trade agreement in Delhi, granting 100% duty-free access for Indian exporters and securing an estimated $20 billion in New Zealand investment commitments.SummaryIndia and New Zealand signed a Free Trade Agreement in Delhi, eliminating and lowering tariffs across a range of goodsNew Zealand grants 100% duty-free access to Indian exporters under the dealAgreement includes an estimated $20 billion in investment commitments from New ZealandDeal adds to India's expanding FTA network, which includes agreements or active negotiations with the EU, UK and OmanIndia has historically been cautious on free trade agreements, making the current pace of deal-making a significant strategic shiftIndia is the world's fifth largest economy and one of the fastest growing major markets, making FTA access increasingly attractive to trading partnersNew Zealand's economy is heavily export-oriented, with dairy, meat, wool and horticulture among its key export sectors likely to benefit from Indian market accessIndia's IT services, pharmaceuticals, textiles and manufactured goods sectors are among the primary beneficiaries of duty-free access to New ZealandSource: VariousIndia and New Zealand have signed a Free Trade Agreement in Delhi, granting full duty-free access to Indian exporters and securing an estimated $20 billion in investment commitments from Wellington, in the latest milestone in what is becoming one of the most ambitious trade expansion programmes of any major economy.The deal lowers and eliminates tariffs across a broad range of goods and represents a significant deepening of economic ties between two countries that have historically had a limited trade relationship. For New Zealand exporters, the agreement opens preferential access to a market of 1.4 billion people and one of the world's fastest growing major economies. For India, the deal adds another important partner to a rapidly expanding network of bilateral trade agreements that is reshaping the country's position in global commerce.India's willingness to pursue free trade agreements at this pace marks a notable departure from its historically cautious approach to trade liberalisation. For much of the past two decades, New Delhi was reluctant to open its domestic market to foreign competition, withdrawing from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in 2019 amid concerns about Chinese import competition and the impact on local industry. That caution has given way to a far more proactive stance under the current government, driven by a recognition that deep trade ties are essential to sustaining the foreign investment flows and export growth needed to support India's development ambitions.The New Zealand deal sits alongside a series of agreements and negotiations that underline the scale of that shift. India has finalised or is in advanced talks on free trade agreements with the United Kingdom, the European Union and Oman, a combination that would give Indian exporters preferential access to some of the world's wealthiest consumer markets. The EU deal in particular, if concluded, would be transformative in scale, covering a trading relationship worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually.For New Zealand, the agreement is part of a broader effort to diversify trade relationships at a time of heightened global uncertainty. Wellington has long sought improved access to the Indian market for its primary sector exports, including dairy, meat, wool and horticulture, though the terms of agricultural access in FTAs with India have historically been a sticking point given New Delhi's sensitivity around farm sector competition. The $20 billion investment commitment signals that New Zealand sees the relationship as extending well beyond goods trade into longer-term capital deployment.India's export sectors set to benefit from duty-free access to New Zealand include information technology services, pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering goods and processed foods. While New Zealand is a relatively small economy, the symbolic and structural value of the deal lies less in its immediate scale and more in what it represents -- a country that once shied away from trade commitments now signing agreements with partners across every major region of the world, building the kind of diversified trade architecture that underpins long-term economic resilience.-----The India-New Zealand FTA is the latest evidence of New Delhi's accelerating effort to embed itself in a web of bilateral trade agreements that reduce dependence on any single market and diversify its export base. The $20 billion investment commitment from New Zealand is a meaningful headline figure, though the more significant long-term impact lies in the structural opening of new export channels for Indian manufacturers, agricultural producers and services firms. For New Zealand, the deal secures preferential access to one of the world's fastest-growing consumer markets at a time when Wellington is actively seeking to diversify its trade relationships. The broader context is important, India is simultaneously negotiating or finalising agreements with the EU, UK and Oman, a pace of deal-making that signals a strategic shift in New Delhi's trade posture away from the caution that characterised its approach for much of the past decade. For markets, the cumulative effect of India's FTA expansion is a gradual but meaningful improvement in its attractiveness as a manufacturing and export hub, with implications for foreign direct investment flows and supply chain diversification away from China. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ING says Japan's March CPI beat forecasts and inflation will accelerate further, complicating the BoJ's rate decision on April 28 and keeping an April hike on the table despite market consensus for a hold. Earlier previews with a conflicting view:Preview: BOJ expected to stay on hold next week but deliver hawkish signal on June moveBOJ may lean more hawkishly to ease pressure on the yen - NomuraNote, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will not physically attend the meeting. Ueda will attend by phone due to health reasons. SummaryJapan headline CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in March, above the 1.4% market consensus and up from 1.3% in FebruaryCore CPI excluding fresh food accelerated for the first time in five months to 1.8%, beating the 1.5% consensusExcluding government energy subsidies and social welfare effects, inflation is running well above 2%ING expects Tokyo CPI to rise to 1.7% year-on-year in April, with both headline and core inflation seen climbing back above 2% from MayShunto wage negotiations delivered growth above 5%, with small and medium enterprise increases also firmING expects the BoJ's FY2026 inflation forecast to be revised up sharply from 1.9% to 2.4%, and FY2027 from 2.0% to 2.2%GDP outlook expected to be trimmed from 1.0% to 0.7% for FY2026, but still seen above potentialMarkets widely expect the BoJ to hold on April 28; ING maintains a non-consensus call for a possible hikeIf BoJ holds, ING expects communication to strongly signal a June hikeING has 50 basis points of hikes pencilled in by end of 2026Japan's inflation is running hotter than expected and broadening across the economy, putting the Bank of Japan in an increasingly uncomfortable position ahead of its rate decision on Tuesday and keeping alive the possibility of a surprise hike that markets have largely dismissed.Headline consumer price inflation rose 1.5% year-on-year in March, above both the 1.4% market consensus and the 1.3% recorded in February, according to ING. Core inflation excluding fresh food accelerated for the first time in five months to 1.8%, well above the 1.5% consensus. On a month-on-month basis, the index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, with goods prices up 0.6% and services adding 0.2%, suggesting price pressures are becoming increasingly broad-based.Government intervention is masking the true scale of the problem. Energy subsidies and social welfare programmes pushed down prices for gasoline, utilities and education, each falling between 4.8% and 5.5%. Strip those policy effects out and inflation is running well above 2%, ING said, a picture that will only become clearer in the months ahead. The bank expects Tokyo CPI to rise to 1.7% year-on-year in April and for both headline and core measures to climb back above 2% from May onward.Several structural forces are amplifying the inflation outlook. This year's shunto wage negotiations delivered growth above 5%, with small and medium-sized enterprises also seeing firm increases. Businesses facing higher input costs from both a weak yen and rising global energy prices are expected to pass those costs through to consumers, particularly in April when retail price adjustments typically occur at the start of the Japanese fiscal year. Producer and import prices have also risen sharply, adding further pipeline pressure.The labour market is providing little relief for the BoJ. ING expects the unemployment rate to edge down to 2.5%, with monthly activity data set to rebound after the previous month's declines. The bank does not believe the energy shock has had a significant negative impact on production so far, leaving the growth picture broadly resilient even as inflation accelerates.All of this complicates Tuesday's rate decision considerably. Markets have moved to price in a hold after local reports suggested the BoJ would not act in April, citing uncertainty around the Middle East situation. ING pushes back on that consensus, arguing that recent data shows the energy shock is having a more prolonged and larger impact on inflation than on growth -- a distinction the BoJ's own quarterly outlook report, due on decision day, is likely to reflect. ING expects the bank's FY2026 inflation forecast to be revised sharply higher from 1.9% to 2.4%, and the FY2027 forecast lifted from 2.0% to 2.2%, while the GDP outlook for FY2026 is trimmed only modestly from 1.0% to 0.7%.With real interest rates remaining deeply negative and inflation expectations at risk of becoming unanchored, ING believes the BoJ faces a genuine dilemma. If it holds on Tuesday, the bank expects the accompanying communication to deliver a strong signal that a hike is coming in June. Either way, ING has 50 basis points of tightening pencilled in by the end of 2026. - ING's non-consensus call for an April BoJ hike, if correct, would likely trigger a sharp yen rally and a sell-off in Japanese government bonds, catching markets significantly off-side given the near-universal expectation of a hold. Even if the BoJ stays on hold as markets expect, ING's analysis suggests the communications accompanying the decision will be closely scrutinised for signals of a June hike. The upward revision to the BoJ's inflation outlook — ING expects the FY2026 forecast to be lifted from 1.9% to 2.4% — would represent a meaningful hawkish shift that could reprice rate expectations across the curve. With real interest rates remaining deeply negative and wage growth running above 5% following this year's shunto negotiations, the fundamental case for tightening is strengthening even as the Middle East situation clouds the near-term growth outlook. For currency markets, the yen remains vulnerable to a hawkish surprise This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Citi:Raising our base case average Brent crude oil price forecasts to $110/95/80/BBL for 2Q/3Q/4Q 2026Flows could easily remain disrupted through the end of June, which could see Brent oil reach $150/bbl This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China's industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, the fastest pace since September, with Q1 profits up 15.5%, beating the prior 15.2% reading. Earlier:China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surgeSummaryChina's industrial profits at large firms rose 15.8% year-on-year in March, fastest growth since September 2025January to March industrial profits rose 15.5% year-on-year, up from 15.2% in the prior readingData covers industrial firms with annual revenue above 20 million yuanStrong profit growth driven by AI-related manufacturing demand, export momentum and improving pricing powerResults come despite headwinds from the Iran war energy shock and global trade uncertaintyChina's industrial output rose 7.7% year-on-year in Q1 2026, underpinning the profit reboundWeak domestic consumption remains a structural drag but export demand and capital investment are filling the gapChina's industrial sector delivered its strongest profit growth in seven months in March, with large firms posting a 15.8% year-on-year gain that exceeded expectations and reinforced the resilience of the country's manufacturing economy in the face of significant external pressures.The data, released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, showed that profits at industrial enterprises with annual revenue above 20 million yuan rose 15.8% in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace of growth since September last year. For the first quarter as a whole, profits were up 15.5% year-on-year, a modest acceleration from the prior reading of 15.2% and a result that will be seen as broadly encouraging given the scale of disruption caused by the Iran war and the associated energy shock.The strength of China's industrial profit picture reflects several overlapping forces that have converged to support the manufacturing sector in recent months. Chief among them is the global artificial intelligence investment boom, which has driven surging demand for chips, advanced manufacturing equipment and the broader supply chain that feeds into AI infrastructure development. China has emerged as a central node in that supply chain, with first-quarter trade data showing imports of integrated circuits soaring 54% year-on-year in March alone, while exports of AI-related goods have continued to climb.Export demand more broadly has provided a powerful tailwind. China's total exports rose 15% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, a result that has surprised economists to the upside and driven sharp upward revisions to full-year trade forecasts. Industrial firms have benefited directly from that external demand, with sectors including electric vehicles, solar panels, industrial machinery and electronics all reporting strong order books.Pricing dynamics have also played a role in the profit rebound. After years of deflationary pressure that squeezed margins across the industrial sector, producer prices have begun to stabilise and in some categories recover, supported by higher global commodity prices and a pickup in domestic capital investment. That shift has allowed firms to rebuild profitability without relying solely on volume growth.The results are particularly notable given the headwinds the sector has been navigating. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of the Iran war has disrupted global energy flows and pushed up input costs for energy-intensive industries. Economists had warned that the shock could weigh meaningfully on Chinese industrial output and margins, but the first-quarter data suggests the impact has so far been more contained than feared. China's diversified energy supply base and strategic petroleum reserves have provided a degree of insulation, while the country's dominant position in green energy manufacturing has allowed it to benefit from the surge in global demand for alternatives to fossil fuels.Domestic consumption remains the weak link in China's economic picture. Household spending has yet to mount a convincing recovery, leaving the industrial sector reliant on exports and fixed asset investment to sustain its momentum. Authorities have rolled out a series of incremental stimulus measures, but economists broadly agree that a more decisive shift in consumption patterns has yet to materialise. For now, however, the profit data suggests China's industrial engine is running at a pace that the broader economy can build on. ---The acceleration in Chinese industrial profit growth is a positive signal for risk assets and commodity demand, suggesting the manufacturing sector is holding up better than many had feared despite the headwinds from the Iran war and global trade uncertainty. The 15.8% year-on-year March reading, the strongest since September last year, points to improving pricing power and volumes at large industrial firms, consistent with the strong trade data seen earlier in the month. The sequential improvement in the year-to-date figure from 15.2% to 15.5% adds further weight to the view that China's industrial economy is gaining momentum rather than losing it. For energy and metals markets, stronger Chinese industrial activity supports demand expectations. For equity markets, the data reduces near-term concerns about a sharp deterioration in corporate earnings driven by external shocks, though weak domestic consumption remains a structural risk to the sustainability of the recovery. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war before nuclear talks begin, passing the plan via Pakistani mediators to the White House as negotiations remain deadlocked. (Axios reporting on what I reported on hours ago)SummaryIran passed a new proposal to the White House via Pakistani mediators to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war before nuclear talks beginThe proposal attempts to bypass internal Iranian disagreements over the scope of nuclear concessions it is willing to offerNuclear negotiations would only commence after the strait is reopened and the US naval blockade lifted, under the proposalTrump cancelled a planned trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad after no progress was made during Iranian FM Araghchi's visit to PakistanTrump signalled in a Fox News interview he wants to maintain the naval blockade, believing Iran faces an oil infrastructure collapse within days if exports remain blockedAraghchi held talks with Omani officials in Muscat on Sunday focused on the Strait of Hormuz before returning to IslamabadAraghchi expected to travel to Moscow on Monday to meet Vladimir PutinWhite House said it would not negotiate through the press and would only accept a deal that prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weaponIt remains unclear whether the US is willing to explore the Iranian-Pakistani proposalIran has put forward a new diplomatic proposal aimed at breaking the deepening stalemate in negotiations with the United States, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and agree a ceasefire before any nuclear talks take place, according to Axios, which cited a US official and two sources with direct knowledge of the matter.The proposal, passed to the White House via Pakistani mediators, represents a significant reframing of Iran's negotiating position. Rather than attempting to resolve the nuclear dispute and the Hormuz crisis simultaneously, Tehran is now seeking to separate the two issues entirely, securing a reopening of the strait and a lifting of the US naval blockade first, with nuclear negotiations to follow at a later stage. The approach is designed in part to work around deep divisions within the Iranian leadership over how far the country is willing to go in meeting US demands for a long-term suspension of uranium enrichment and the removal of enriched uranium stockpiles from Iranian territory.The proposal's prospects are uncertain at best. Trump made clear in a Fox News interview on Sunday that he intends to maintain the naval blockade, viewing it as his most potent source of leverage over Tehran. The US president suggested Iran was approaching a critical point, warning that its oil infrastructure could face an internal collapse within days if exports remain blocked for much longer, and that any resulting damage would be permanent and irreversible. That framing suggests the White House sees little incentive to release pressure before extracting nuclear concessions.The breakdown in momentum was underlined by Trump's decision to cancel a planned trip to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Pakistan over the weekend ended without progress. Trump told Axios he saw no point in sending his team on an 18-hour flight given the state of the talks, adding that Iran could call if it wanted to engage.Araghchi's diplomatic activity has nonetheless continued at pace. After leaving Pakistan, he held talks with Omani officials in Muscat focused on the Strait of Hormuz before returning to Islamabad for a second round of discussions. On Monday he was expected to travel to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, a visit that underlines Iran's efforts to shore up international support as the pressure from the US blockade intensifies.Multiple mediators are now involved in the process. Araghchi briefed Pakistani, Egyptian, Turkish and Qatari counterparts over the weekend on Iran's position, making clear that there is no internal consensus in Tehran on the nuclear question. That admission is significant, as it suggests any deal touching on enrichment would face resistance from hardline factions within the Iranian leadership regardless of what negotiators agree at the table.The White House declined to engage with the specifics of the proposal, with spokesperson Olivia Wales stating that the US would not negotiate through the press and would only accept a deal that permanently prevents Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.----The Iranian proposal to decouple Hormuz from nuclear talks is a significant diplomatic development with direct implications for energy markets. A reopening of the strait without a nuclear resolution would remove the most acute supply disruption driving oil prices, potentially triggering a sharp correction in crude. However, Trump's stated desire to maintain the naval blockade as leverage suggests the White House is unlikely to accept a deal that surrenders its primary pressure point before securing nuclear concessions. The cancellation of the Witkoff and Kushner trip to Islamabad signals a hardening of the US position in the short term. For markets, the key risk is that the stalemate deepens, keeping the strait closed for longer and sustaining the supply shock. The involvement of Russia, with Araghchi heading to Moscow to meet Putin, adds a further geopolitical dimension that could complicate any path to resolution. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.Injects 218.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tomorrow we get the Bank of Japan:Preview: BOJ expected to stay on hold next week but deliver hawkish signal on June moveBOJ may lean more hawkishly to ease pressure on the yen - NomuraHolidays follow on Wednesday then Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week (Golden Week). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier:China imports set to overtake exports for first time since 2021 on AI chip surge-The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China's import growth is forecast to hit a five-year high of 5% in 2026, overtaking export growth for the first time since 2021, driven by a surge in AI-related chip purchases. (Info via Bloomberg, gated).SummaryChina import growth forecast upgraded to 5% in 2026, a five-year high, more than double the 2.4% predicted in March, per Bloomberg poll of 17 economistsImport growth now expected to overtake export growth for the first time since 2021Export growth also revised higher to 4.9% from 3.6%China's goods trade surplus forecast at just over $1.2 trillion, barely above 2025's record levelIntegrated circuit imports soared 54% year-on-year in March, accounting for nearly a third of total import growthChip volume rose only 14%, suggesting surging prices accounted for much of the value increase, per Pantheon MacroeconomicsChina's total imports rose 23% in Q1 2026 year-on-year; exports climbed 15%Yuan has strengthened close to 7% against the dollar over the past year, boosting purchasing powerOil and gas import values expected to fall 14% and 18% respectively in April due to reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic, per Pantheon MacroeconomicsChina identified as world's largest supplier of AI-related goods but remains a net importer of advanced chipsRising global demand for EVs and solar panels seen as a tailwind for Chinese exportersEconomists have sharply upgraded their forecasts for China's import growth, now expecting foreign purchases to outpace export expansion for the first time since 2021, as a global artificial intelligence investment boom drives surging demand for high-end chips and advanced manufacturing equipment.According to a Bloomberg poll of 17 economists conducted this month, China's imports are forecast to grow 5% in 2026, a five-year high and more than double the 2.4% gain predicted as recently as March. The revision follows four consecutive years of import stagnation and decline and reflects a structural shift in China's trade dynamics driven primarily by the country's heavy reliance on cutting-edge technologies linked to AI development.The unexpected scale of the import surge became clear in first-quarter trade data, which showed imports climbing 23% year-on-year and exports rising 15%. The value of integrated circuits imported by China soared 54% in March from a year earlier, accounting for nearly a third of total import growth, even as import volumes rose a more modest 14%, according to estimates from Pantheon Macroeconomics. The gap between value and volume growth points to sharply higher chip prices as a significant driver alongside rising demand.The global AI spending boom, forecast to reach $2.5 trillion this year, has become a major engine of trade across Asia. While China has emerged as the world's largest supplier of AI-related goods, it remains a net importer of certain critical technologies, particularly advanced semiconductors. Taiwan and South Korea, which supply the bulk of China's AI-related chip imports, have both reported surging export volumes to China in recent months, underlining how the AI cycle is reshaping regional trade patterns.Beyond chips, several other factors are supporting China's import growth. The yuan has strengthened by close to 7% against the dollar over the past year, lifting the purchasing power of Chinese households and businesses. A rally in metal prices has also inflated the import value of copper and aluminium products.Export growth has also been revised higher, to 4.9% from a previous estimate of 3.6%, partly reflecting inadvertent benefits from the Iran war. Rising global demand for green energy products is helping Chinese carmakers and solar panel manufacturers make further inroads in overseas markets, while China's supply chains have proven more resilient to the energy shock than those of many other Asian economies.With import and export growth now running broadly in line, China's goods trade surplus is projected at just over $1.2 trillion for 2026, barely above last year's record level and a marked contrast to the rapid expansion seen over the previous two years.The near-term outlook is not without risk, however. Reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to weigh on energy import values in the months ahead, with Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasting sequential declines of 14% and 18% in oil and gas import values respectively in April. Weak domestic consumption also remains a structural drag, with economists noting that China's recovery continues to rely heavily on external demand rather than any meaningful revival in household spending.---The sharp upward revision to China's import forecasts carries significant implications for global trade flows and commodity markets. A narrowing of China's trade surplus reduces one of the key pressure points in international trade relations, though at over $1.2 trillion the surplus remains historically elevated. The AI-driven chip import boom is a direct boon for Taiwan and South Korean exporters, and signals that the global AI investment cycle continues to underpin Asian trade even amid the energy disruption caused by the Iran war. The yuan's near-7% appreciation against the dollar adds further purchasing power to Chinese buyers, potentially sustaining import momentum. On the downside, the expected 14-18% sequential decline in oil and gas import values in April from reduced Hormuz traffic is a near-term headwind that could complicate the import growth picture in coming months. For energy markets specifically, the data reinforces that China's crude appetite is under pressure from both the Hormuz disruption and subdued domestic consumption. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump's interview on 60 Minutes. Trump says he is unsure he was the target in the Hilton hotel attack.Earlier:Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victoriousHe's been saying this for weeks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Very sparse. Not likely to move financial markets the one set of items that is due. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl, citing 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East output losses driving a record 11-12 mln bpd global inventory draw in April. Info via Reuters report. SummaryGoldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90/bbl, up from prior forecast of $80/bblQ4 2026 WTI forecast lifted to $83/bbl from $75/bblBank estimates 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East crude output lossesGlobal oil inventories drawing at a record pace of 11-12 mln bpd in AprilGlobal oil market swings from a 1.8 mln bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 mln bpd deficit in Q2 2026Global oil demand forecast to fall 1.7 mln bpd in Q2 2026 and 0.1 mln bpd for full year 2026Prior Q2 2026 Brent forecast was $99/bbl, trimmed to $90/bbl after US-Iran ceasefire; Q2 WTI was $91/bbl, cut to $87/bblQ3 2026 forecasts unchanged at $82/bbl Brent and $77/bbl WTIGoldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026, lifting its Brent crude target to $90 per barrel and WTI to $83 per barrel, as the bank warned that massive Middle East production losses are driving global oil inventories lower at a pace never seen before.The bank estimates that 14.5 million barrels per day of Middle East crude output has been lost, a figure that is pushing global oil inventories to draw at a record rate of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April alone. The scale of that drawdown underlines how severe the supply shock has become and how quickly the global oil balance has shifted.Goldman's updated forecasts mark a sharp upgrade from its previous Q4 base case of $80 per barrel for Brent and $75 per barrel for WTI. The revision also reflects a broader reassessment of the global supply and demand balance, with the bank now projecting that the oil market will swing from a 1.8 million barrel per day surplus in 2025 to a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. That is an extraordinary turnaround in a matter of months, driven almost entirely by the collapse in Middle East output.The demand side of the equation offers limited relief. Goldman forecasts that global oil demand will fall by 1.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 and by 0.1 million barrels per day for the full year. While that demand destruction provides some cushion, it falls well short of offsetting the scale of supply losses, leaving the market in a deep and worsening deficit.The updated Q4 forecasts sit alongside Goldman's broader forecast trajectory for 2026. The bank trimmed its Q2 2026 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $99 after the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire, and cut its Q2 WTI forecast to $87 per barrel from $91, citing a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and early signs of improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Q3 2026 forecasts were left unchanged at $82 per barrel for Brent and $77 per barrel for WTI.The risks to Goldman's price outlook remain skewed firmly to the upside. If Middle East production losses prove deeper or more sustained than the base case assumes, prices could move considerably higher than the bank's current forecasts imply. ---Goldman's updated forecasts represent a significant hawkish shift on oil, with the Q4 Brent target lifted to $90/bbl from $80/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl from $75/bbl. The scale of the numbers is striking, an 11-12 million bpd inventory draw in April alone is without precedent, and the swing from a 1.8 million bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 million bpd deficit in Q2 2026 underlines how rapidly the supply picture has deteriorated. The demand destruction estimate of 1.7 million bpd in Q2 provides some offset but is nowhere near sufficient to balance a market facing losses of this magnitude. The overall signal is strongly bullish for near-term crude prices, with the risk skewed further to the upside if Middle East production losses prove deeper or longer-lasting than the base case assumes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Talks are stalled. No progress to report. Soon:Trump interview on 60 Minutes, 7pm US Eastern time His recent remarks have been delusional:Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victoriousOther:Reports that a cargo ship has been attacked in Bab al-Mandab StraitIran’s FM discussion with Oman on ways to ensure safe transit in Hormuz Strait This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran Foreign Minister met with Oman:Important discussions ... focus included ways to ensure safe transit that is to benefit of all dear neighbors and the world This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is the second large commercial vessel in the past week have now been hijacked my Somali pirates.Trump's assertion that the war is nearly done:Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victoriousIn a moment of rare candour last week Trump compared it to the decade+ Vietnam war. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump was his usual delusional self over the weekend:Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victoriousExpect more of the same when he speaks on the telly soon. Still, markets seem to like his reassurance. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.1 hit norther Japan, Hokkaido early on Monday morning local time.depth 81km 2023 GMT on SundayI haven't heard of a tsunami alert as yet. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tehran's sequenced negotiation plan puts war's end before nuclear discussion. Mid East media with the report. SummaryIran has submitted a three-phase negotiation framework to mediators, per Al Mayadeen's Tehran correspondentPhase one: ending the war and securing non-resumption guarantees for both Iran and Lebanon; no other issues on the table at this stagePhase two: management of the Strait of Hormuz, including a new legal framework developed in coordination with OmanPhase three: nuclear negotiations, which Tehran insists will only begin after agreements are locked in at earlier stagesTalks will resume only if the US agrees to the proposed frameworkps, while you are here:Trump is going to be interviewed on 60 minutes Sunday evening US time (from 7pm US Eastern time).We'll probably get a repeat of this sort of thing:Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victoriousAnyway, back to the article:Iran has put forward a structured, three-stage negotiation blueprint to mediators, according to Al Mayadeen, the Arab independent satellite channel, citing its correspondent in Tehran. The framework represents Tehran's most detailed public articulation yet of the conditions under which it is prepared to re-engage diplomatically, and it sets a deliberately high bar for entry.The first phase is narrowly defined and non-negotiable in scope. Tehran wants the war brought to a halt and binding guarantees secured that hostilities will not resume, covering both Iran and Lebanon. Until that is achieved and formalised, Iran has made clear it will not entertain discussions on any other subject. The insistence on guarantees for Lebanon signals that Tehran views any settlement as necessarily linked to the broader regional picture, not just its own territory.Should phase one produce an agreement, the framework moves to a second stage centred on the Strait of Hormuz. This would address the waterway's management arrangements, with Oman playing a key coordinating role in developing a new legal framework for the strait. Given the Hormuz blockade's significant impact on global energy supply, this phase carries considerable economic weight and would be closely watched by oil markets.The nuclear question -- long the central preoccupation of Western governments and a primary driver of the original conflict -- is relegated to phase three. Iran has been explicit: the nuclear file will not be opened until satisfactory outcomes are secured in the first two stages. This sequencing appears designed both to protect Tehran's negotiating leverage and to ensure any nuclear discussion takes place from a position of relative security rather than under the pressure of active conflict.Whether Washington accepts the framework as a basis for resuming talks remains to be seen. The phased structure effectively asks the United States to make significant concessions upfront -- including a ceasefire and security guarantees -- before the nuclear issue, which has been the primary US concern, even reaches the agenda. That asymmetry is likely to face scrutiny in Washington and could prove the central sticking point. ---Tehran's structured, sequenced approach introduces a new layer of complexity into the negotiations. By ring-fencing the nuclear file until the final phase, Iran is effectively extending the timeline to any comprehensive resolution, keeping sanctions relief and a lasting energy market normalisation some distance away. For oil markets, the Strait of Hormuz remaining a phase-two discussion rather than an immediate priority means supply disruption risk lingers. Any breakdown in the first phase -- or US rejection of the framework altogether -- would likely see the risk premium in crude prices reassert itself quickly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

MInor moves since Friday's close only so far:As an early heads up, Trump is going to be interviewed on 60 minutes Sunday evening US time (from 7pm US Eastern time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.