The NASDAQ and S&P indices close at record levelsMeeting between US and Iran may not take place until MondayGlobal Central Banks decisions highlight next week's calendar: Market Volatility AheadEarnings next week: Big Tech takes center stageTrump sends WItkopf and Kushner for talks with Iran. Vance is not goingUS Dept of Justice drops probe of Jerome PowellUMich April final consumer sentiment 49.8 vs 48.0 expectedIran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from negotiations - Iran mediaCanada February retail sales +0.7% vs +0.9% expectedinvestingLive European FX news wrap: Risk sentiment improves on expected US-Iran talksRisk mood picks up on murmurs about US-Iran talksThe North American session leaned firmly toward a risk-on tone, with equities pushing higher, oil easing, and yields drifting modestly lower. The backdrop for the move was driven largely by renewed diplomatic momentum, as talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to be gaining traction- with Pakistan playing a central role. While headlines throughout the day were at times inconsistent and even contradictory, the broader narrative pointed toward re-engagement rather than escalation.U.S. envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly en route, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is also expected to be in the region. Current indications suggest that all parties may first meet separately with Pakistani officials, with the possibility of more direct engagement emerging as late as Monday. Markets are clearly choosing to focus on the potential for de-escalation, and that optimism helped extend the rally in U.S. equities.That optimism translated into record-setting performance on Wall Street. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, with the S&P rising 0.80% and the NASDAQ surging 1.63%. Leadership once again came from mega-cap tech, with Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon all finishing at record levels. Meanwhile, Intel stole the spotlight with a staggering gain of over 23%. The turnaround in Intel highlights just how quickly sentiment can shift—what was recently an avoided name is now being embraced, even at elevated valuations near an 80x forward P/E. It’s a reminder that markets don’t wait for perfection—they anticipate it. It is either that, or the markets are inefficient and subject wild irrational moves at times. Looking ahead, earnings will take center stage next week and could inject fresh volatility. Wednesday features reports from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft—a heavyweight lineup that will test the sustainability of the current rally. On Thursday, Apple, Caterpillar, and Merck follow, adding further depth across both tech and industrial sectors.In the fixed income space, yields edged lower but remain within recent ranges. The 2-year yield declined by 4 basis points to 3.784%, while the 10-year yield slipped 1.7 basis points to 4.305%. Despite today’s dip, yields still moved higher on the week, with the 10-year up 5 basis points and the 2-year rising 7.9 basis points. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC set to meet next Wednesday. Expectations are firmly anchored for no change in rates, with the current target range centered around 3.75%. The focus will instead be on guidance and tone, particularly as markets weigh geopolitical risks against easing inflation pressures.In the FX market, the U.S. dollar weakened as traders leaned into the improving risk backdrop and the prospect of reduced geopolitical tension. Lower oil prices and expectations of softer inflation down the road also contributed to the move. Commodity and growth-sensitive currencies led the gains, with the NZD and GBP each rising around 0.50%. The EUR advanced 0.32%, while the AUD gained 0.34%, reflecting a broader shift away from defensive positioning.Oil prices told a slightly more nuanced story. WTI crude for June delivery fell 0.87% to $95, while July crude dropped 0.74% to $90.15, reflecting optimism around supply stability if tensions ease. However, Brent crude painted a more cautious picture, rising $1.11 (1.08%) to $106.20—suggesting that not all market participants are fully convinced that risks have been removed.Bottom line: Markets are leaning into a more optimistic geopolitical narrative, driving equities to record highs and pressuring the dollar. However, with major earnings, a Fed decision, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty ahead, the current calm may prove fragile. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower while the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing higher, and at record levels.A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -79.61 points or -0.16% at 49230.71S&P +56.68 points or 0.80% at 7165.08NASDAQ index up 398.09 points or 1.63% at 24836.60The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 11.90 points or 0.43% at 2787.00.For the trading week, the Dow industrial average also fell while the S&P and NASDAQ indices closed higher: Dow industrial average fell -0.44%S&P index rose 0.55%NASDAQ index rose 1.50%The winners were clearly dominated by semiconductor and AI-linked names, with a strong secondary lift from cyclicals and energy-related stocks. Intel was the big winner after their beat in earnings after the close yesterday.At the top of the leaderboard:Intel (+23.6%) led the surge, reflecting strong AI-driven demand and bullish forward guidance AMD (+13.9%) and Arm (+14.8%) followed, riding the same AI tailwinds Qualcomm (+11.1%) and Synopsys (+9.6%) added to the chip-sector strength Ambarella (+9.1%) and Super Micro Computer (+8.7%) continued the AI/data-center momentum Outside of chips but still strong:Newmont (+8.6%) benefited from firm gold prices Baker Hughes (+6.9%) gained on energy sector strength SanDisk (+6.2%), Baidu (+5.9%), and Cadence (+5.9%) added solid gains Shake Shack (+5.5%) and TSMC (+5.2%) rounded out the winnersShares of Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet closed at a new record levels. Next week will be a big week earnings with Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Visa, Boeing, McDonald's, Exxon, Chevron all scheduled to release.Big picture: The move fits with the broader market theme—AI and semiconductor stocks are leading the rally, with Intel acting as the catalyst and pulling the entire chip space higher. Bottom line: AI/chip stocks = clear leaders, with broad participation across the sector and supportive momentum spilling into energy and select cyclicals. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There’s a noticeable amount of positioning and repositioning ahead of the weekend, with headlines offering a mixed and at times conflicting picture. The market is reacting to uncertainty around potential diplomatic developments with a tilt toward confidence, but clarity and certainty remains limited for now. A trilateral meeting with the US, Iran, and Pakistan will only be considered after Pakistan first meets with Iran’s Araghchi A meeting between the US and Iran may not take place until Monday Witkoff and Kushner, meanwhile, are expected to hold separate talks with Pakistan on Sunday Iran’s foreign ministry says its foreign minister will meet with high-ranking Pakistani officials to discuss regional developments and ongoing efforts toward peace and stability Other sources close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council emphasize that no negotiations with the US are currently planned Taken together, the messaging remains inconsistent, reinforcing the idea that the situation is still evolving and that the weekend’s developments will likely be key in shaping the next move. Despite the uncertainty, equities are holding firm near highs, with the NASDAQ up 1.54% and the S&P 500 up 0.75%, suggesting markets are leaning toward a cautiously optimistic stance—for now. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The week ahead is stacked with global central bank decisions and top-tier inflation and growth data, making it one of the most important macro weeks of the month. The Bank of Japan kicks things off, but the focus quickly shifts to a midweek cluster of Bank of Canada and FOMC decisions, followed by a “super Thursday” featuring the BOE and ECB alongside U.S. GDP and Core PCE. Inflation readings out of Australia and growth data globally add another layer, meaning rates, yields, and FX volatility could be elevated throughout the week.Monday (April 27)BOJ Policy Rate Decision: No change expectedBOJ Monetary Policy Statement & Outlook ReportSummary: A quieter start in terms of volume, but high importance with the Bank of Japan. Markets will be watching for any shift in policy stance or guidance, especially around yield curve control and inflation outlook.Tuesday (April 28)BOJ Press ConferenceAustralia CPI (m/m, y/y, trimmed mean) . 9:30 PM ET. Estimate 1.3% MoM and 4.8% YoYSummary: Focus shifts to inflation in Australia, a key input for the RBA outlook. The BOJ press conference could also add volatility depending on tone. Expect AUD moves on CPI and JPY follow-through from BOJ messaging.Wednesday (April 29)Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report: 9:45 AM meeting. Current rate 2.25%. No change expectedBOC Press ConferenceFOMC Rate Decision. 2 PM ET. Current rate 3.75%. No change expected FOMC Statement & Press Conference. There will be no central tendencies or dot plot released Summary: This is one of the biggest days of the week. Markets will digest back-to-back central bank decisions from Canada and the Fed, with the Fed clearly the headline event. The focus will be on rate guidance, inflation trajectory, and timing of future cuts or pauses.Thursday (April 30) – “Super Thursday”BOE Rate Decision + Policy Report + Vote Split. 7 AM ET. Current rate 3.75%. No change expected. Estimate vote 0 – 0 – 9 ECB Rate Decision + Press ConferenceU.S. Advance GDP (q/q) 8:30 a.m. ET. Estimate 2.1% versus 0.5% last quarterU.S. Core PCE Price Index . 8:30 a.m. meeting 0.3% versus 0.4% last monthU.S. Employment Cost IndexCanada GDP (m/m) 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 0.2%. Summary: The busiest and most market-moving day of the week.Central banks: BOE + ECB decisions back-to-back U.S. data: GDP and Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) Global growth pulse: Canada GDP Bottom LineBiggest risk events: FOMC (Wed), BOE + ECB + U.S. GDP/PCE (Thu) Key theme: Monetary policy + inflation + growth all convergeTrading implication: Expect higher volatility, especially in USD pairs, rates, and equities, with multiple “trend-defining” catalysts rather than a single event This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Scott Bessent in a WSJ interview speaks about the key economy and policy goals as he maneuvers through the Iranian war and other global economic hurdles.: Goal: Restore strong U.S. growth following war disruptions while keeping expansion intact Balance inflation vs. growth: Bring inflation down without choking economic expansion Lift real wages: Focus on improving income for the bottom 50% of earners Reassert U.S. dominance in key sectors: Chips, AI, and energy seen as critical to future prosperity China strategy = “de-risk, not decouple” (maintain trade but reduce dependency) Targeted independence: Critical minerals, medicines, and semiconductors prioritized for domestic resilience Use leverage in trade tensions: Tariffs, tech controls, and policy tools used to pressure China strategically AI is existential priority: Winning in AI is essential or it’s “game over” economically AI policy approach: Encourage innovation while applying targeted regulation (chips, safety oversight) Productivity upside from AI: Seen as a major driver of efficiency and economic growth Energy strategy: Higher prices → more production → self-correcting mechanism to lower costs Rebuild domestic manufacturing: Reduce reliance on foreign supply chains and increase economic resilience Tax policy focus: Benefits aimed at lower-income workers (e.g., overtime tax breaks) Close inflation-era wage gap: Restore purchasing power lost during prior inflation surge Bank regulation critique: Post-crisis rules favor large banks, creating a system where “too small to succeed” Deregulation theme: Reduce burdens to boost investment and competitiveness Core objective: Combine taxes, energy, trade, and deregulation into sustained, broad-based economic growth Bottom line:At its core, the strategy is a pro-growth, supply-side push aimed at strengthening U.S. economic dominance by boosting productivity, rebuilding key industries, and improving outcomes for lower-income workers. It balances inflation control with continued expansion, leans on energy and deregulation to drive investment, and uses targeted trade and industrial policies to reduce dependence on China without fully breaking ties. Artificial intelligence sits at the center as the key future growth engine, with the broader goal of aligning tax, trade, and regulatory policy into a cohesive framework that delivers sustained, broad-based economic growth. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Earnings season so far has come in better than expected and broadly supportive for equities, helping push major indices back toward record highs despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Early reports show that roughly 80%–85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, a strong beat rate by historical standards, with profits tracking toward double-digit growth of around 13%–16% year-over-year.The strength has been led by technology and AI-related companies, where demand and investment trends continue to surprise to the upside, while financials also started the season on solid footing. At the same time, energy companies have benefited from elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, contributing to upward earnings revisions in that sector.However, beneath the surface, the story is a bit more mixed. While the headline numbers are strong, earnings momentum has been somewhat concentrated in a handful of sectors—particularly tech and energy—rather than broad-based across the market. In addition, a number of companies have struck a more cautious tone on forward guidance, citing uncertainty tied to higher energy costs and geopolitical risks.Next week is shaping up to be one of the most important of the earnings season, with a heavy slate of high-profile companies set to report across multiple sectors. The spotlight will be firmly on Big Tech, with Microsoft, Amazon and Meta midweek followed by Apple on Thursday—names that have been key drivers of the broader market and the AI narrative. Alongside them, reports from Visa, UPS, Eli Lilly, and Exxon Mobil will provide insight into the health of the consumer, global growth, healthcare demand, and energy markets. With so many market-moving companies reporting in a condensed window, the results—and more importantly the guidance—will play a critical role in shaping sentiment, either reinforcing the recent bullish momentum or raising questions about valuations and the sustainability of growth.Monday, April 27 Domino’s Pizza NXP Semiconductors Tuesday, April 28 Visa Starbucks United Parcel Service (UPS) General Motors Coca-Cola Wednesday, April 29 Microsoft Meta Platforms Qualcomm Boeing Thursday, April 30 Apple Amazon Eli Lilly Mastercard McDonald’s Friday, May 1 Exxon Mobil Chevron Bottom line: Wednesday and Thursday remain the key market-moving days, with the bulk of big tech earnings driving direction. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The positive headlines around Iran continue to mount:Witkoff and Kushner headed to Pakistan on Saturday morning, according to the White House“We hope that positive developments will come from this meeting" Leavitt saidIran reached out an asked for an in person meetingVance will be standing by in the USEveryone will be on standby to fly to Pakistan if neededAxios also reported that Witkoff and Kushner would travel "in the coming days" but the details of that report were less encouraging. It says:The diplomatic efforts haven't made any progress in recent days. The trip is an effort to break the stalemate and build momentum for a deal before Trump goes back to exploring military options.My guess is they're continuing to try to get the US to drop its blockade of Iran's ships.There is also this detail in the Axios report, which follows a report that he had stepped down earlier:A U.S. official and a source with knowledge said Ghalibaf grew frustrated with the infighting in the Iranian leadership after the previous round of talks, and even threatened to step aside. It's unclear if he's still the lead Iranian negotiator.It's interesting that this is all coming from the US side while the reporting from Iran said it would be a short stop in Pakistan for a bilateral meeting with Pakistan's leaders. Of course, you never really know what's going on but the market is certainly taking it well. The S&P 500 is up 0.7%.The White House's Leavitt is also talking and said there has been "some progress" on Iran in recent days.Finally, Iran's Tasnim reports that Araghchi will not hold any negotiations with Americans. The reports out of Iran have consistently said something similar. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USDJPY is pressing to fresh session lows, with sellers leaning on the pair and probing below the 100-hour moving average at 159.347. The move comes as US yields edge lower, with the 10-year down around 2 basis points to near 4.303%. While that dip offers some support for the downside in USDJPY, yields remain above the 4.30% level, which continues to act as a floor and limits the extent of the dollar’s decline. In other words, the rate backdrop is helping sellers at the margin, but it is not yet a full green light for a deeper move lower.At the same time, the broader market tone is being shaped by shifting headlines around the Iran/US/Israel conflict and ongoing efforts toward a ceasefire or negotiated resolution. There is still an underlying sense of cautious optimism, but the latest reports have introduced some uncertainty. Iranian sources are indicating that Abbas Araghchi will not meet with US officials in Pakistan, while other reports suggest that US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are expected to travel to Pakistan to meet with Iran’s foreign minister to discuss a potential path toward ending the conflict. The conflicting narratives are creating a degree of hesitation, keeping volatility elevated and conviction somewhat muted.From a technical perspective, the key for sellers is follow-through below the 100-hour moving average at 159.347. A sustained break would open the door for a test of the 200-hour moving average at 159.132. That level represents a more important barometer for short-term bias. A move below both moving averages would tilt control more firmly in favor of sellers and likely trigger additional downside momentum.If that bearish momentum builds, traders will next target the 159.00 handle as a near-term psychological level. Below that, the focus shifts to the lower swing area between 158.01 and 158.26, which represents a more meaningful support zone and a potential downside objective if sellers take control. Until those levels give way, however, the pair remains in a battle between modestly softer yields and still-elevated rate levels, alongside headline-driven swings tied to geopolitical developments. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

CNN is reporting that the special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent the US in the talks in Pakistan this weekend. VP Vance is not going because neither is Ghalibaf, but he does remain on stand-by. The X post from CNN's Alayna TreeneScoop: Trump is sending his special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan to participate in talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, two administration officials tell CNN. VP JD Vance is not currently planning to attend given Iran's Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who is viewed internally by White House officials as the head of the Iran delegation and Vance's counterpart, is not participating either, they said. However, the vice president will be on standby to travel to Islamabad if negotiations progress, they said, and members of his staff will be in the country and attending the talk.The USD has moved lower and is trading at session lows. US broader indices are trading at new session highs:S&P index up 54 points or 0.76% at 7162.26NASDAQ index up 360 points or 1.47% had 24799.88.The Dow industrial average is still negative by -50 points or -0.10%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Shares of Nvidia have just spiked up to a high of $208.88. That took the price up by over $9 or 4.5% on the day. The price also moved above its all-time high closing level going back to October 29 at $207.04.Since March 30 with the market closing at its low at $165.17.Total trading days: ~18 Up days: 13Down days: 5What stands outStrong upside run followed, including a ~10-day winning streak into mid-April Late April saw a couple of pullback days, but the trend remained higher overall Bottom lineBias: Clearly bullish since March 30 Structure: More than 2-to-1 up vs down daysTheme: Classic “break low → trend higher” behavior—buyers in control most sessionsTechnically, the move higher has checked a lot of bullish boxes for NVIDIA (NVDA). On the run-up, the price pushed back above its 200-day moving average at $182.85 and the 100-day moving average at $184.63 (green and blue lines on the daily chart above), flipping the bias back to the upside, after the corrective move lower that corrected the price to the 38.2% of the move up from 2025 low . Holding that retracement, proved to be a solid support. From there, the market extended above the 100/200 day MAs and broke above the "old" 2026 high from February 25 at $197.63, which was a key ceiling.What’s more important is what happened after the break. The subsequent corrective lows came in at $197.84 on April 20 and $197.22 on April 23—basically holding right around that old high. That’s what you want to see. Former resistance turning into support is a classic sign that buyers are still in control. The ability to hold that area and push higher over the last few sessions keeps the bullish bias intact.From a trading perspective, that $197.63 level is your risk barometer. Stay above, and buyers remain in control. Move below, and the door opens for a deeper correction on the disappointment.On the topside, the next target is clear: the all-time high from October 29 at $212.19. With the current price trading around $208.65, the market is within striking distance. The question now is whether momentum can carry it through that level and into new high ground.Shares of chips stocks are taking their clue from Intel with the share price currently up $16 or 24.06%. For the trading year, Intel shares are up 124.53%. Shares of micron are also surging by 4.47%. There shares are up 76.26% in 2026. Intel shares in comparison are only up 12.17% for the trading year.Below is a list of chip sector stocks and the winners and losers today:Chip Sector – Daily % Change (Updated)How are the Magnificent 7 doing today?The price action is leaning mostly to the upside, led by a standout move in NVIDIA, which is up close to 5% Amazon and Meta also posted solid gains, while Microsoft and Tesla chipped in with more modest advances. On the flip side, Alphabet and Apple lagged, both closing lower and acting as a drag on the group.Year-to-date, the performance across the Magnificent 7 is a bit more mixed. On the topside, Amazon and NVIDIA are leading the way with gains of around 12%, showing where the strength and momentum has been concentrated. Alphabet is also holding solid gains, while Meta is barely positive—more of a laggard among the winners.On the downside, Apple is essentially flat on the year, but Microsoft and Tesla stand out as the clear underperformers, both down double digits. Tesla, in particular, is lagging the most, down over 16%.So when you step back, the theme is pretty clear: leadership is narrow, with a few names carrying the weight, while others—especially Microsoft and Tesla—have struggled. It’s not a broad-based rally across the group, but rather a selective, momentum-driven move led by a handful of names. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe U.S. stock market is showcasing a mixed performance, emphasized by notable movements in technology and semiconductor sectors. The technology sector stands out with various software and infrastructure stocks showing positive momentum. Microsoft (MSFT) has managed to post a modest gain of 0.40%, while the semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) rallied with an impressive 1.48% increase, defying the bearish sentiment that has plagued the market in recent days.Semiconductors:Micron Technology (MU) leads the sector with a 4.23% gain, driven by positive earnings reports and market expectations, although Broadcom (AVGO) saw a slight dip of 1.34%.Consumer Cyclical:Amazon (AMZN) is a highlight within the sector, surging by 2.10%, likely buoyed by strong retail sales figures and optimism about upcoming holiday shopping seasons.Communications:Meta (META) sees a 0.83% rise, as investors seem to regain confidence in its long-term strategies.Healthcare:Eli Lilly (LLY) takes a hit, dropping 4.32%, impacted by regulatory concerns.Financials: Major players like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Visa (V) experience minor losses, hinting at investor caution among financial stocks amid looming interest rate changes.Market Mood and TrendsInvestor sentiment appears mixed, underpinning the day’s trading activities. While optimism returns to the technology sphere, likely driven by ongoing recovery expectations, financials face headwinds due to anticipation of interest rate hikes. The healthcare sector remains under pressure, highlighted by the drag on pharmaceutical stocks.Strategic RecommendationsGiven the current dynamics, investors might consider reallocating towards technology and semiconductor stocks, particularly those like NVDA and MU, which show robust recovery potential. Caution is advised in financial and healthcare sectors due to prevailing uncertainties.Staying informed with real-time updates and maintaining a diversified investment strategy could help navigate these volatile market waters. For continuous insights and detailed analysis, visit InvestingLive.com ?. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The Department of Justice is expected to drop its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as soon as today, ABC News reports. (Update: It's now confirmed)Senator Thom Tillis said he wouldn't advance the nomination of Kevin Warsh so long as the probe remained open. Other Republican Senators were also strongly against it.Powell's term ends May 15.The report says that senior DOJ officials have informed senators, including Tillis and the Senate Banking Committee, that they plan to refer the matter concerning alleged cost overruns at the Fed's Washington headquarters to the bank's internal watchdog instead. The Fed's independent inspector general had previously audited the $2.5 billion renovation project in 2021, and Powell had requested another review last year.Powell's term ends next month, but he has committed to remaining in his position until President Trump's nominee, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. District of Columbia U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro had maintained her investigation would continue despite Judge James Boasberg's March ruling that tossed out her subpoenas to Powell. Pirro announced this week she was appealing the decision, arguing prosecutors should have broad grand jury access. It remains unclear whether prosecutors will now drop that appeal.Powell publicly revealed the investigation in a January video message, characterizing it as a Trump administration attempt to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates. Tillis had announced in January that he would block all Fed nominees until the probe was resolved, calling the investigation "weak" and "frivolous" and warning that DOJ independence was at stake. His opposition, combined with unified Democratic resistance on the narrowly divided Banking Committee, had made advancing Warsh's nomination impossible. Dropping the probe is expected to clear Warsh's path to confirmation.The big question beyond that is whether Powell will remain as a Governor, which he is entitled to do.Update: Here is the statement from the US attorney:This morning the Inspector General for the Federal Reserve has been asked to scrutinize the building costs overruns – in the billions of dollars – that have been borne by taxpayers. The IG has the authority to hold the Federal Reserve accountable to American taxpayers. I expect a comprehensive report in short order and am confident the outcome will assist in resolving, once and for all, the questions that led this office to issue subpoenas. Accordingly, I have directed my office to close our investigation as the IG undertakes this inquiry. Note well, however, that I will not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts warrant doing so.I don't know how you take that if you're Powell. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prelim was 47.6Prior was 53.3Details:Conditions 52.5 vs 50.1 prelim (55.8 in March)Expectations 48.1 vs 46.1 prelim (51.7 in March)1-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.8% prelim (Prior was 3.8%)5-year inflation 3.5% vs 3.4% prelim (Prior was 3.2%)This is a modest recovery from the preliminary survey, likely as oil came down from a couple weeks ago and stock markets recovered.For backround, the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, housed at the university's Institute for Social Research, is one of the longest-running gauges of U.S. household attitudes, with continuous monthly data stretching back to 1978 and roots in surveys conducted by economist George Katona beginning in the late 1940s. Now directed by Joanne Hsu, it produces two releases each month: a preliminary reading around the second Friday, and a final reading roughly two weeks later, typically on the last Friday of the month at 10:00 a.m. ET. The final release incorporates a fuller sample and can shift meaningfully from the preliminary number, especially when events mid-month move public opinion.The headline Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is built from a monthly survey of roughly 600 to 900 households covering views on personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions for durable goods. It is split into two sub-indexes — the Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC), which captures how households feel about their situation now, and the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE), which looks six months to five years ahead. The ICE feeds into the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, giving the survey influence beyond its own release.Markets also watch the survey's inflation expectations series closely. Respondents are asked what they expect price changes to be over the next year and over the next five to ten years, and the long-run measure in particular is treated by the Federal Reserve as a key gauge of whether inflation expectations are staying anchored.The Michigan survey is often compared with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Both track household attitudes, but Michigan leans more heavily on personal finances and inflation, while the Conference Board is more sensitive to labor market conditions — and the two can diverge for months at a time. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Canada retail sales came in a bit softer on the surface, but the underlying details were more constructive. Headline sales rose +0.7% vs +0.9% expected, but the prior month was revised higher to +1.2% from +1.1%. Ex-autos, sales increased +0.5% vs +0.8% expected, with the prior also revised up to +1.0% from +0.8%. So while the current read missed expectations, the upward revisions help offset some of that disappointment.Looking ahead, the March advance reading of +0.6% looks solid at first glance. However, a chunk of that strength is likely tied to gasoline prices, so the cleaner signal will come with next month’s ex-gas breakdown.Bottom line: The headline miss is tempered by stronger revisions and a firm advance read, suggesting the Canadian consumer was holding up reasonably well heading into the Iran conflict.USDCAD reaction and technicalsThe data helped push USDCAD lower initially, with additional pressure coming from headlines that Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan — a modest positive for risk and a negative for the USD. However, as the session has evolved, we’ve seen a rotation back to the upside as geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive flows heading into the weekend.Technically, it’s been a two-way trade. The early move higher extended toward a resistance target near 1.3715, with the high reaching 1.3714, just shy of that level. That push also took the price above the 200-hour moving average at 1.3694 — a bullish step.But buyers couldn’t sustain the momentum. The price rotated back lower, breaking back below the 200-hour MA and falling to 1.3679. On the downside, the 100-hour moving average at 1.3667 becomes the next key barometer. A break below that level would tilt the bias more firmly in favor of sellers.For now, the pair is trading between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, putting it in a more neutral zone.Above 1.3715 and the 200-hour MA (1.3694): Buyers regain control → target 100-day MA at 1.3738 and 50% retracement at 1.3745Below the 100-hour MA (1.3667): Sellers gain control → target weekly low / swing area between 1.3619 and 1.3630As we head toward the weekend, expect headline risk to continue to drive the next directional move. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF moved higher earlier today, but that upside momentum has stalled and the pair has backed off its highs as the USD comes under pressure. Headlines about Iran sending a delegation to Pakistan helped shift the tone, and the greenback has rotated lower as a result. Even so, USDCHF is still clinging to modest gains, up about 0.04% on the day.From a technical perspective, the pair did what buyers needed initially — pushing back above the 100-day moving average at 0.78639. That’s a bullish step. However, the rally ran into a wall in a key swing area between 0.7869 and 0.7878, which also lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 range at 0.78739. That combination created a ceiling, and the failure up there opened the door for sellers to lean back in.The move lower on the geopolitical headlines has now taken the price back below the 100-day MA, shifting the bias back toward the downside. If the pair can stay below that MA — and below the swing area high at 0.7878 — the earlier bullish momentum starts to fade.On the downside, sellers will start targeting a key cluster between 0.7831 and 0.7840. That zone is loaded: it includes the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range, along with the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages (roughly 0.7822–0.7824). That’s your next barometer. If sellers can push through that cluster, it would tilt control more firmly in their favor and open the door for a deeper move lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Now there is some real smoke around the idea that there is division in the Iranian delegation.Iran state media reports that Ghalibaf is out for including nuclear in negotiations (translated):According to information received by Iran International, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, head of the Islamic Republic's negotiating delegation with U.S. representatives in Islamabad, has resigned and stepped down from membership in this delegation.Based on this information, Qalibaf has been reprimanded in the Islamic Republic for his efforts to include the nuclear energy issue as part of the negotiation axes with America, and has been forced to resign.According to Iran International's information, the possibility of replacing Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with Saeed Jalili at the head of the negotiating delegation has been raised, and Abbas Araghchi is also trying to take responsibility for the file of negotiations with America by stepping aside Ghalibaf.This truly means the hardliners are in charge.Yesterday, a report from Israel's N12 about Ghalibaf leaving the negotiating team was published but it was denied aggressively. Ghalibaf's twitter also posted a coordinated message that was echoed by others that said:In Iran, there are no radicals or moderates; we are all "Iranian" and "revolutionary," and with the iron unity of the nation and government, with complete obedience to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, we will make the aggressor criminal regret his actions. One God, one leader, one nation, and one path; that path being the path to victory for Iran, dearer than life. This development also gives credence and credibility to Trump's repeated statements that they don't know who is in charge in Iran and him suggesting infighting.None of that is good, because it looks like the hardliners are in charge. We are also getting more reports that Iran dropped more mines this week.Does any of this sound like a country that's eager to make a deal? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is softer heading into Friday trade, with the greenback slipping to fresh session lows as North American desks come in. Risk sentiment is getting a modest boost from headlines that Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan this weekend, helping lift equities after yesterday’s dip.On the corporate side, Intel is the standout. Shares are sharply higher after a blowout earnings report, continuing a remarkable turnaround for what was not long ago viewed as a laggard in the chip space. Revenue came in at $13.6B (well above expectations), while EPS printed at $0.29 vs $0.01 expected, sending the stock up roughly 20% to $82.That move also shines a spotlight on last August’s policy decision, when the U.S. government converted $8.9B in unspent CHIPS Act funding into a ~9.9% equity stake, acquiring 433.3 million shares at $20.47. At today’s price, that position is now worth approximately $35.5B, translating to a ~$26.6B gain (+299%) in under a year. Even when factoring in total exposure of about $11.1B, the return is still roughly +220%. The stake remains unrealized, with no indication yet on timing for any potential exit.The estimated current total direct cost estimates stands at approximately $35 billion, or roughly $236 per U.S. taxpayer and equal to the value of the Intel stock (assuming they continue to hold the full position). In broader markets, stocks are rebounding:Dow: -25 points S&P 500: +31 points (after -29 yesterday) Nasdaq: +361 points (after -219 yesterday) In FX, the dollar is correcting lower after a stronger week:EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD: All seeing USD weakness after prior gains Rates are slightly lower but still elevated:2-year yield: -0.5 bps 10-year yield: -1.0 bps (holding above 4.30%) Meanwhile, crude oil is down about 1%, easing slightly after recent volatility.In the video above, I break down the technicals for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, focusing on the key levels that are defining bias, risk, and targets as the dollar pulls back. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +1.1% (revised to +1.2%)Ex autos +0.5% vs +0.8% expectedPrior ex autos was +0.8% (revised to +1.0%)March advance reading +0.6%The headline number is soft but the revisions were higher and the advance reading for March was strong. That said, surely a big portion of the +0.6% reading in March was gasoline so we're going to have to wait for the ex-gas number in next month's report. All told, the Canadian consumer appeared to be in good shape ahead of the Iran war. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is all very vague but journalist Moahmmad Ali Shabani reports:Foreign Minister Araghchi traveling to Islamabad, Amwaj Media has learned, but informed sources say it's not to hold negotiations with US officials.Now this outlet was only founded in 2021 and covers Gulf countries from London. It's a push back against the idea that negotiations could take place this weekend.That said, if he's meeting Pakistani officials, you have to imagine it has something to do with the war.The earlier report from a journalist Italy's Republica who is in Pakistan said this:Araghchi is coming to Islamabad with a small delegation, after having calls with Pakistani PM and Munir. A second round of talks between Us and Iran is expected, per Pakistani source. U.S. logistics and security team is already in Islamabad to facilitate the process.That report led to a rise in risk appetite.Update: Another report -- this time from Iran state media -- says he will visit Islamabad, Muscat and Moscow for bilateral consultations and to discuss developments in the region.It says:"The purpose of this trip is bilateral consultations, discussions, and dialogues regarding the ongoing developments in the region, as well as the latest status of the imposed war by the United States and the Israeli regime against Iran."The New York Post also writes: "Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will lead a delegation to Islamabad, which is set to arrive around 10 p.m. local time, an Iranian source said."They add "It was not immediately clear whether the trip indicates a second round of talks is imminent." This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Risk mood picks up on murmurs about US-Iran talksHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?Risk sentiment stays on edge as US-Iran stalemate drags onEUR/USD extends losses amid the US-Iran stalemate; traders await new catalystsSNB's Schlegel: We have unrestricted room to manoeuvre on policy rate, FX interventionsGermany April Ifo business climate index 84.4 vs 85.5 expectedUSD/JPY crawls toward the 160.00 handle as US-Iran stalemate keeps the US dollar supportedFrance April consumer confidence 84 vs 88 expectedWhat are the main events for today?UK March retail sales +0.7% vs +0.1% m/m expectedFX option expiries for 24 April 10am New York cutOil prices hold firmer in final stretch of the week as US-Iran stalemate continuesBOJ may lean more hawkishly next week to ease pressure on the yen - NomuraAs it's been the case since Trump took office, the European session has been mostly rangebound with limited news flow. On the economic data side, the UK retail sales report beat estimates, although the bulk of it came from higher fuel sales. The German IFO, on the other hand, fell to the lowest level since October 2022 as business sentiment tumbled amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict.On the news front, we haven't got anything meaningful other than SNB's Schlegel reiterating the central bank's commitment to price stability and the potential for negative interest rates and FX interventions to reach their goals.Just now, the risk sentiment improved as we got reports that Pakistan may announce today that talks between Iran and the US will resume. Other reports are also saying that Iran's foreign minister is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight.The optimism is back but the recent track record hasn't been great with markets rallying into the weekend on deal hopes and then giving everything back on Monday as talks fall apart. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.