Brent up around $2.70 to circa 115.30 a barrel US crude up around $2.35 to circa $102 a bblUS equity index futures had a very weak close on Friday, are lower to open the week. Weekend:Yemen attacks Israel again with missilesPakistan says it will host US-Iran talksWhere the warmakers are at: US-Iran talks uncertainUS sends more signals that troop deployments coming. Rubio hints at endgame This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The headline story on the weekend is from the Washington Post and it's titled: 'Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran'The headline basically tells the whole story and it signals what the market has been buzzing about since the Japan-based USS Tripoli was deployed to the Middle East on March 13. That ship has now arrived and other units have arrived as well or are reportedly en route.There are no plans for a large-scale ground invasion and it would be obvious if there were as that would require hundreds of thousands of troops. This deployment might involve thousands of troops including special forces with support from ground troops. There are no indications on what the targets may be, though there is plenty of speculation.The key detail is that it will take 'weeks', which already pushes the war beyond the 4-5 week timeline that Trump first laid out.One person cited in the report said the objectives under consideration would probably take “weeks, not months” to complete, while another put the potential timeline at “a couple of months”.That latter timeline is a gruesome one for the world economy as the lack of oil flowing is very quickly going to be a problem.As for Hormuz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered an equally-chilling message, though it took some reading between the lines. It came after he spoke with G7 ministers:“One of the immediate challenges we’re going to face is in Iran, when they decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz,” Rubio said.“Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable. It’s dangerous for the world, and it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it. The United States is prepared to be a part of that plan. We don’t have to lead that plan, but we are happy to be a part of it.”The implied message is that the US doesn't have a plan to open the Strait and it's not one of its objectives in the war. It also implies that the strait won't be opened when the US has accomplished its objectives, whatever they are. The fear is that the end of this war will be basically the US declaring 'we broke it, you fix it'. That's a problematic approach and could leave Iran with huge leverage at the end, along with a big problem for Europe, Asia and Africa.Given the extended timeline, I'd expect to see strong upward pressure on oil prices, barring any sort of diplomatic breakthough. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

For investors and traders navigating the current volatility, here is a backdrop of what happened over the recent trading sessions, characterized by escalating geopolitical tension and significant market retreats:Geopolitical Escalation: The conflict involving Iran has intensified as Houthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support Tehran. While Trump signals to allies no immediate plans for an Iran invasion, diplomatic confusion persists. This was highlighted when Trump said Iran asked for a pause, a claim Iran quickly denied.Energy and Commodity Spikes: Crude prices have reacted sharply to the instability. WTI Crude oil touched $100 per barrel as markets eye the steel industry and brace for promised revenge from Iran. Adding to the tension, Trump joked about the Strait of Hormuz as the war drags on and NATO doubts resurface.Equity Market Sell-off: The broader markets are feeling the weight of the uncertainty. Major US stock indices closed lower for the fifth consecutive week.Tech Sector Hits: Technology shares have been particularly hard hit, with the Nasdaq falling below 21,000 for the first time since August, a move exacerbated by Tesla (TSLA) shares dropping more than 3%.Those are some important catch-up from investingLive.com and now let's dive in some interesting angles I see from the prediction markets lately.Prediction Markets Are Starting to Price Time, Not Just OutcomesKey points:Prediction markets are shifting from pricing the size of shocks to pricing their sequence. Rates markets increasingly imply an uneven policy reaction function, with inflation drawing faster responses than growth weakness. Elections are no longer being treated as a clean uncertainty reset. Crypto and regulation are becoming more sensitive to timing, liquidity, and enforcement shocks. The biggest edge now may come from understanding when risks hit, not just what the risks are. Prediction markets are no longer just moving faster than traditional coverage. I think they are starting to model uncertainty differently.The change is subtle but important. Markets are becoming more focused on time structure. Not just what happens, but when it happens, in what order it lands, and how policymakers react once one shock collides with another. That is a meaningful shift because many analysts still discuss risks in isolation, while market pricing is increasingly treating them as linked and sequential.That is where the newest divergence is emerging.Macro is shifting from fragility to path dependencyThe clearest change is in macro. Markets are acting less as if shocks can be measured one by one and added together neatly. Instead, they are behaving as if outcomes depend on sequence.That makes sense. An inflation surprise that hits before growth weakens is not the same as an inflation surprise that lands after activity has already rolled over. The shock may look similar on paper, but the policy consequences are very different. A late rate cut is not equivalent to an early one, even if the final number of cuts ends up being similar.This is where prediction markets appear to be ahead of much of the standard macro discussion. They are not just pricing magnitude. They are pricing interaction and order.In practical terms, that means investors may need to think less in terms of static scenario trees and more in terms of evolving chains of cause and effect. Once stress is already in the system, the next shock tends to matter more.Rates are starting to price an asymmetric central bank responseRates markets also seem to be moving away from the old idea of a balanced, fully symmetric reaction function.The growing market assumption looks more like this: central banks respond faster to inflation risk than to growth deterioration. That creates an important asymmetry. Upside inflation surprises get attention quickly, while downside growth risks may linger longer before policymakers feel comfortable stepping in.That is a very different framing from the standard "data-dependent both ways" narrative.You can see this in how traders interpret recent central bank communication. The market is less willing to assume that softening growth automatically leads to quick relief. At the same time, it remains highly sensitive to any sign that inflation could reaccelerate or become politically difficult to ignore. That creates skew across bonds, equities, FX, and crypto because the policy floor under growth may be weaker than many had assumed.Geopolitics is no longer just a cost storyAnother important shift is in how geopolitical stress is being interpreted.Traditional coverage still focuses heavily on direct economic channels such as oil, shipping disruptions, or trade friction. Markets, however, seem increasingly focused on the policy distortion channel. In other words, the real issue is not only the immediate shock. It is how governments respond to it.That includes subsidies, tariffs, trade restrictions, industrial policy, emergency support measures, and politically motivated interventions. Once that layer becomes dominant, the same geopolitical event can produce very different outcomes depending on the policy response that follows.This is one reason market pricing can look more unstable than the headlines suggest. The first-order shock may be understandable. The second-order political response is often much harder to model.Elections are shifting uncertainty forward, not removing itElections are another area where the time structure has changed.The old assumption was simple: once the vote is over, uncertainty declines. Markets now seem less convinced. In many cases, the vote is no longer the endpoint. It is the starting point for a new phase of uncertainty.That can mean delayed implementation, coalition bargaining, legal friction, contested mandates, or institutional drag. So instead of resolving risk, elections may now redistribute it into the weeks and months that follow.This is a meaningful shift in market psychology. It suggests volatility may increasingly migrate from the pre-election period into the post-election phase. That has implications not only for political contracts, but also for rates, FX, equities, and event-sensitive sectors.Crypto is becoming more short-horizon liquidity sensitiveCrypto may be the cleanest example of this broader transition.The old macro view treated crypto as mainly tied to longer cycle liquidity conditions over quarters. Now the sensitivity appears more compressed. Short-horizon rate expectations, central bank communication, and near-term liquidity conditions seem to matter more than before.That helps explain why crypto can react so sharply even when the broader macro narrative has not dramatically changed. The time horizon has shortened. Markets are responding faster to the front end of policy expectations and to shifts in liquidity tone.This also makes the asset class feel more twitchy. It is not just volatile in a general sense. It is becoming more reactive to immediate macro timing.Regulation is now about enforcement timingRegulation is also being reframed.Markets seem less focused on what rules say in theory and more focused on when enforcement lands, how suddenly it arrives, and whether it is politically timed. That is an important change because enforcement timing can create discontinuity risk.A platform, contract, or market structure can look stable one day and face an abrupt repricing the next if the regulatory trigger is event-driven. That makes regulation less of a slow-moving background variable and more of a live timing risk.This is especially relevant in crypto and prediction markets, where legal interpretation, agency posture, and political mood can change the trading environment very quickly. Recent developments around SEC crypto guidance and the formalization of rules for prediction markets reinforce that point.More signals are not always better signalsThere is one more layer here that should not be ignored: signal saturation.As more contracts, narratives, and event probabilities compete for attention, clarity can actually fall. More visible activity does not always mean better forecasting. Sometimes it means a noisier information environment where it becomes harder to tell the difference between informed positioning and reactive flow.That is a risk prediction market observers should take seriously. A denser signal environment can flatten conviction. Probabilities can become more active while also becoming less decisive.This may be one of the most underappreciated tensions in the current setup. Prediction markets are getting more sophisticated, but they are also becoming more crowded and more complex to interpret.Why this matters for traders and investorsThe main takeaway is that markets are increasingly pricing three things more aggressively than traditional coverage: Sequence Asymmetry Timing That is the real divergence I've noticed lately.Consensus analysis still often treats risks as static. Markets are becoming more dynamic in how they process them. They are asking whether inflation comes before weakness, whether elections resolve uncertainty or extend it, whether geopolitics changes costs or policy, and whether regulation arrives gradually or all at once.That is a more temporal way of thinking. It is also a more realistic one in the current environment.ICE's recent move to invest $600 million in Polymarket is another reminder that this space is not sitting on the fringe anymore. The market is maturing, but it is also becoming more sensitive to timing, framing, and second-order effects.The setup from hereIf this reading is right, the next big forecasting edge will not come only from knowing what the risk is. It will come from understanding the path it takes.That means asking different questions:If inflation reappears before growth breaks, does policy stay tighter for longer?If an election result is known quickly, does that actually reduce uncertainty, or simply move it into implementation risk?If geopolitical tension rises, is the bigger issue the direct drag, or the policy response that follows?If regulators act, is the content of the rule the story, or the timing of the enforcement shock?Those are the kinds of questions prediction markets seem to be asking earlier than much of the traditional commentary.Prediction markets are moving fastPrediction markets are moving beyond faster forecasting and toward temporal modeling of uncertainty.That means they are increasingly pricing not just what happens, but when it happens, in what order it happens, and how unevenly institutions respond.Right now, that shift toward time structure looks like the clearest area where market sentiment is moving ahead of standard coverage. Stay tuned to investingLive.com when you want to make sense of some of that, and perhaps some original opinions of the possible trades beyond the news. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Trump joked about the “Strait of Trump” as the Iran war enters month two, with Hormuz disruptions persisting. Mixed signals on talks continue, while US stocks fell for a fifth week and NATO commitment concerns resurfaced.SummaryTrump joked about the “Strait of Trump,” underscoring its central role in the Iran war and global oil flows Conflict enters second month with no clear resolution; risks of prolonged disruption remain high Mixed signals from Iran on negotiations continue to muddy the diplomatic outlook Trump struck a relaxed tone despite US equities extending losses to a fifth straight week NATO comments raise fresh doubts about US commitment to alliance amid geopolitical strain Nasdaq closes at lowest level in six months, highlighting risk-off sentimenU.S. President Donald Trump placed the Strait of Hormuz firmly at the centre of market and geopolitical focus, jokingly referring to the critical energy chokepoint as the “Strait of Trump” during remarks in Miami Friday afternoon, while reiterating that Iran must reopen the vital shipping route. Trump got a laugh with his light hearted:Iran has to “open up the Strait of Trump — I mean, Hormuz.” The comments come as the Iran conflict moves into its second month, with little sign of resolution. The war has evolved into a prolonged and complex standoff, with both military and economic dimensions intensifying. Iran retains the ability to disrupt or effectively block transit through Hormuz, a route that typically handles around 20 million barrels of oil per day, sustaining a significant risk premium across global energy markets.At the same time, the diplomatic picture remains highly uncertain. Washington continues to signal that talks with Tehran are progressing, with Trump stating that Iran is negotiating and seeking a deal. However, Iranian officials have repeatedly denied that formal negotiations are taking place, instead framing communications as indirect or routed through intermediaries. The conflicting narratives have added to market volatility and reinforced the sense that a clear off-ramp remains elusive.Trump appeared notably relaxed in his public remarks despite mounting market pressure. U.S. equities have now posted a fifth consecutive weekly decline, marking the longest losing streak in nearly four years, while the Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest level in six months. The divergence between market stress and political tone has not gone unnoticed by investors.Adding to the geopolitical backdrop, Trump also questioned the United States’ commitment to NATO, suggesting Washington does not necessarily “have to be there” for the alliance if European members fail to provide support. The remarks introduce a further layer of uncertainty for global security arrangements at a time when markets are already grappling with war-driven energy disruptions and fragile risk sentiment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran expected to deliver counter-proposal to the US today - reportTrump signals to allies no immediate plans for Iran invasionHouthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support IranSecretary of State Rubio said that the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeksUMich final March consumer sentiment 53.3 vs 54.0 expectedECB Schnabel: There is no need to rush into actionPhiladelphia Fed Pres. Paulson: Fed has made notable progress bringing inflation downMore from Paulson: Impact of Iran War comes as inflation has been highFed's Barkin: Even before oil shock, progress on inflation was stallingIran hackers claim the breach of Kash Patel's personal emailBaker Hughes total rig count falls to 543 from 552 last weekMarkets:WTI crude oil up $5.59 to $100.07S&P 500 down 1.7% to 6368Gold up $135 to $4513US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 5.00%Bitcoin down 4.2%USD leads, GBP lagsIt was an ugly one for most markets today, with the exception of gold and oil. The Nasdaq fell to a six month low as war worries extended throughout the day. The positive backdrop of Trump extending his deadline to strike power facilities yesterday ultimately failed. The thinking is that the 10 day extension will add more pain and that a deal doesn't look promising.As oil steadily climbed it pushed yields higher and equities lower. Compounding the pain in stocks is an intensifying selloff in tech stocks led by some of the highest flyers this year and last. That looks like a deleveraging move as the uncertainty around the economy grows. Early on in the conflict, there was trust this would wrap up in Trump's 4-5 week timeline but we just completed Week 4 and Rubio today said 2-4 more weeks.Late in the day, the report about Houthis entering the war was questioned. US negotiator Steve Witkoff said he thinks there will be meetings with Iran this week and that Trump wants a peace deal. I guess all that is going to depend what Trump puts on the table. In an optimistic world maybe there is a way Iran gives up nuclear material in exchange for peace and sanctions relief. With that, Trump could also claim he stopped Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.The market is also likely fearful of a US escalation over the weekend. The report about the US not using ground troops barely had an effect on the market as everything is quickly discounted as possible mis-information.In terms of movers, the MAG7 looks like this:Meta (META): down 4.0%Amazon (AMZN): down 4.0% Microsoft (MSFT): down 2.5% Alphabet (GOOGL): down 2.5% Nvidia (NVDA): down 2.2%Tesla (TSLA): down 2.8% Apple (AAPL): down 1.6% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing lower for the day and lower for the week. The decline this week is the 5th consecutive weekly decline. The S&P decline is the worst string in 4 years.A look at the closing levels shows:Dow industrial average-793.78 or -1.73% at 45166.33. S&P index fell -108.49 or -1.67% at 6368.67.NASDAQ index fell -459.72 points or -2.15% at 20948.36.For the trading week:Dow industrial average fell -0.90%S&P index fell -2.12%NASDAQ index -3.23%From the recent highs, both the Dow and the NASDAQ index are down over 10%..Dow industrial average is down -10.58% from the January highS&P index is down -9.05%NASDAQ index is down -12.72%As a point of comparison in 2025, the corrective move from the February high to the April/May low saw the: Dow industrial average fell -18.74%S&P index fell -21.35%NASDAQ index fell -26.48%Looking at the weekly chart of the major indices, the Dow industrial average has reached it 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April low at 45202.60, and is also testing a swing area near 45073.63. The price is trading at its lowest level since September 2025.For the S&P index, it remains above the 38.2% retracement at 6174.38 and also a swing level between 6147 and 6212. That area is around 3% to 3.5% away. Another down week could have prices near that level next week.For the NASDAQ index, the price is still above its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April low comes in at 20, 491.86. That is within a swing area between 20,204 and 20,560 (see yellow area on the chart below). The low of that swing area is about 3.4% away from current levels.Once again, the corrective declines from last year were much greater than what would project if the aforementioned the support levels are reached and hold support. So there is room to roam if the market continues to be pushed by the inability to solve the war in Iran, and higher oil prices continue to pressure the economies and and growth potential. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This day just keeps getting worse.At the start of trading Monday it looked like Trump was on track to get some kind of ceasefire by now. Instead, we have talk of bombing steel plants and now this.The Houthis in Yemen say they will enter the conflict on the side of Iran if any alliance joins the US and Israel. The possible chokepoint now is the the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which they could try to blockade. If so, it's not as devastating as the Strait of Hormuz because the traffic can go through the Suez canal. But it makes the trip significantly longer as the Saudi oil redirected to the pipeline in the Red Sea would now have to travel through the Mediterranean and then around Africa.Saudi Arabia has also indicated it could enter into the war and that could mean a showdown between the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia, who have already been fighting at various levels for 11 years.With this announcement, we are seeing WTI crude back over $100 as all signs point to escalation rather than ceasefire.Soon we will start to find out how this is hitting the global economy with gasoline and diesel prices spiking. In places, there are already signs of shortages and I can't see those improving any time soon.Update: Earlier reports said they would enter the war but the later statement made it clear that they will enter if others join the US and Israel. It looks like this is aimed at deterrence. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market continues to bid up oil. WTI settled up $5.16 to $99.64 but shortly before settlement it hit $100 per barrel for the first time since Monday, when Trump pushed back his deadline.The market is increasingly seeing longer timelines on resolving this war.Eyes are also on the steel market. A US-Israeli strike occurred today on a large Iranian steel plant. In response, Iran has just released a target list of steel plants it will hit in the coming hours.Kuwait Steel (United Steel Industrial Corporation) — Kuwait City, KuwaitEMSTEEL Group (United Iron and Steel Company) — Abu Dhabi, UAEYehuda Steel Ltd. — Ashdod, IsraelSaudi Iron & Steel Co. (Hadeed) — Al Jubail City, Eastern Saudi ArabiaFoulath Holding — Khalifa bin Salman Port, BahrainQatar Steel QPSC — Mesaieed Port, QatarThe messages showing the various plants look like this:What strikes me first is that Qatar is on the list. They had sent some less-aggressive messages about Iran and there was some speculation they had reached a deal to minimize hostilities but that doesn't appear to be the case based on these messages.The largest facilities are in Saudi Arabia and produce about 7.0 Mt of steel annually. Combined, the facilities make about 15 Mt of steel, which is mostly rebar, billet and construction steel. The Bahrain facilities also produces 13 million tons of premium iron-ore pellets, making it the world's largest DR merchant pelletizing producer.For some sense of size, the largest US producer is Nucor, which produces 30 Mt across 26 facilities in the US.In terms of the global economy, taking steel production off line wouldn't be too big of a problem as it can be redirected from China, India and Turkey, which all have substantial overcapacity. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The mood in markets continues to deteriorate into the weekend. I don't know if that's pricing in the chance of a weekend escalation or it's a realization the war could go on for another month (or longer) and that could cripple energy markets. Tech had been vulnerable to AI narratives unwinding all year and it's worsening now.I worry that we're still a long way from pricing in a global recession, energy shock and rate hikes. The market has shown patience with the war but Marco Rubio today indicated another two to four weeks. At the outset, Trump said 4-5 weeks and then repeatedly (including yesterday) said the US was ahead of schedule. That's just not the case and the market is now indicating that it's losing faith in the White House to wrap this up and get the oil flowing.The Nasdaq is down 1.9% on the day.The good news is that Iran is expected to float a proposal to the White House today or tomorrow and that could be the starting point for actual negotiations. We shall see.In terms of movers, the MAG7 looks like this:Meta (META): down 4.5%Amazon (AMZN): down 3.4% Microsoft (MSFT): down 2.0% Alphabet (GOOGL): down 2.4% Nvidia (NVDA): down 2.0%Tesla (TSLA): down 3.3% Apple (AAPL): up 1.2%Microsoft is particularly ugly and is down 35% from the high in October. You have to wonder if they announce a cut to capex at some point.The chart I want to highlight though is TSLA, which is at the lowest since September. Despite that, it still trades at extremely lofty multiples. The consensus for this year is just $2.02 in earnings, putting the P/E multiple at 177x.Just crossing now.Iran's foreign minister writes: Israel has hit 2 of Iran's largest steel factories, a power plant and civilian nuclear sites among other infrastructure. Israel claims it acted in coordination with the U.S. Attack contradicts POTUS extended deadline for diplomacy. Iran will exact HEAVY price for Israeli crimesUgly stuff. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I don't know how much anyone believes any of this. On the dawn of this war, Trump was saying they were planning for negotiations and Marco Rubio was going to the Middle East. That this news was also leaked suggests that it was deliberately leaked.There has been a kneejerk lower in oil on this but that's from the highs of the day. Just before the headlines, WTI was up $4.31 to $98.77 so this could just be an effort to cool pump prices for the weekend.The report says:The Trump administration is signaling to allies that it has no immediate plans for a ground invasion of Iran, even as it deploys thousands of troops to the Middle East, people familiar with the matter said.The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, cautioned that President Donald Trump could change his mind at any moment or go ahead with an attack. They said the troops could serve a variety of roles, including to help with evacuations of American citizens but also to create a sense of strategic ambiguity about US intentions.A US Marine unit was pulled from Japan and should be arriving in the Middle East now while another was deployed from California and should arrive in mid-April or sooner.The ground troops could be a feint or could give Trump optionality if needed. At the moment, the US appears to be pursuing the negotiations route but it's not clear how willing Iran is to offer any concessions, and has now publicly said it wants control over Hormuz.Iran may also be seeing the rising price of oil and falling stock markets and calculating that could put additional pressure on Trump to give in to their demands. The S&P 500 was last down 1.1% and the Nasdaq hit a six-month low today.A separate report just crosses cites an Israeli media source and says operations may continue for another four weeks. That's a timeline that truly strains the global energy market should Hormuz remain closed, and given that it will take time to restart production. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Baker Hughes: Total rig count 543 versus 552 last weekOil rigs 409 versus 414 last weekNat Gas 127 versus 131 last week.Despite the higher prices, rigs decline in the current week. Go figure. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks after G7 meeting of foreign ministers: We had a really good meeting at G7we expect the Iran operation to conclude at the appropriate time, we are talking weeks not months.Iran may decide to set up a tolling system on the Strait of Hormuz.There are no meetings scheduled as of now on Russia – Ukraine.Weapons destined for Ukraine are not being diverted but that could happen.Rubio told G7 leaders that the war with Iran will continue for another 4 weeks. There is nothing Russia is doing for Iran's that impedes our operations.Zelenskyy was told security guarantees, only after there is an end to the war.Zelenskyy is comments on Thursday about supposed US demands for Ukrainian concessions were "a lie"We can achieve our goals in Iran without any ground troops.We are waiting for further clarification on who we will be talking to on Iran negotiations We have exchanged messages and indications from Iranian system about a willingness to talk about certain things Iranian tolling of the Strait of Hormuz would not be acceptable.We do expect a response from Iran either today or tomorrow.Relief on Russian crude is not a permanent policy for the United States.There are some constructive elements — timelines (weeks, not months - although, it was supposed to be over at 4 week - we are going past that this week), no need for ground troops, and ongoing communication with Iran — but nothing in there signals a clear path to resolution. You’re still waiting on responses, still defining who talks to who, and still dealing with potential risks like Hormuz disruption.So while the tone is measured and somewhat confident, the substance says the situation is still fluid and unresolved.Meanwhile, German Chancellor Merz is saying: If there is international mandate after Iran war and parliamentary approval, could help for example with mine clearance.US and Israel have no strategy on what they wantOuch. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

ECB's Schnabel is speaking and says:We are facing a massive energy price shock.There is no need to rush into action. We have time to analyze the data. ECB should not be rushed to raise rates.This has a stagflation-lite feel—the energy shock keeps inflation risks alive, but the wait-and-see stance tells you the ECB isn’t in a hurry to support growth. That’s not a green light for risk, and it leans more bearish for the economy, while keeping a hawkish bias on inflation vigilance. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY has pushed decisively above the 160.00 level, extending to a high of 160.29. In doing so, the pair briefly moved above a key swing area from 2024 near 160.25, but the break lacked follow-through, with the move only clearing that zone by a handful of pips before stalling. That hesitation at a prior multi-year reference point is worth noting—buyers made a run, but haven’t yet shown the conviction needed to accelerate the trend.On the downside, last week’s high at 159.895 now serves as a near-term barometer for buyers and sellers. Staying above keeps the bullish bias intact. A move below would start to erode upside momentum and open the door for a deeper corrective rotation.For buyers, risk can be more tightly defined against 159.74—the high from March 16. That level represents a clear line in the sand. If the price dips below and stays below, the breakout above 160 starts to look more like a failed break, which could invite sellers back into the market.What next? If buyers can hold above 159.895 and keep price supported, the focus shifts back toward a sustained break above 160.25–160.29, where momentum could start to build. Fail to hold those support levels, and the bias tilts back lower with the breakout losing credibility.Key levels:160.25–160.29 – Resistance / recent highs / 2024 swing area 159.895 – Near-term support / bias-defining level 159.74 – Risk-defining level for buyers (March 16 high) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Impact of Iran war comes as inflation has been high. There is more risk of faster shift from oil prices into inflation expectations.Risk that series of supply shocks drive up inflation.Economy is not creating a lot of jobs right now.Bending but not breaking is still how to view jobs market.To me it feels like the job market is fragile.The job market does not feel robust. Useful to consider different scenarios around Iran war Very valuable that long-run inflation expectations are anchoredPaulson's additional comments are balanced with inflation fear high but so is the risk to the job market. Regarding jobs, there tends to be a event that kicks companies into acting together. AI threatened to tip the applecart, but did not. The War in Iran may be the catalyst that starts the job losses beget job losses mentality. No company wants to be the one that does not cut jobs during a weakening economy. Stocks remain negative with the S&P down -0.90% and the NASDAQ index is down -1.28%.Yields have come off with the two-year now down -5.6 basis points at 3.928%. The 10 year is still up but only by 0.08% at 4.4238%. The high today reached 4.484%.Crude oil is surging with the price trading at $98.24. That is up around $3.75.Bitcoin's moving sharply to the downside and trades at $65,930. The low price today reached $65,677, testing the low price going back to March 8 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Philadelphia Pres Ann Paulson is on the wires sayingFed has made notable progress bringing inflation down Iran war creates risks for both growth and inflation Inflation levels still too high; expectations remain “fragile” No evidence the labor market is currently driving inflation Above-target inflation tied to AI-driven growth would complicate Fed response R-star estimate near Fed median (~3.1%) Unclear how much AI is boosting productivity so farThe tone from Paulson leans cautiously hawkish. Yes, there has been progress on inflation, but it’s still too high and expectations remain fragile — and that keeps the Fed on guard. Add in the uncertainty around how much AI is actually boosting productivity, along with geopolitical risks like the Iran situation, and it makes it harder for the Fed to confidently shift policy. While it’s somewhat reassuring that the labor market isn’t currently driving inflation, that alone isn’t enough to offset the broader concerns. Bottom line, this feels like a “not ready to ease” message, with a bias toward higher rates for longer rather than moving toward cuts anytime soon. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD moved below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 yesterday, shifting the bias more to the downside. That break gave sellers more control and opened the door for further downside probing.In the early Asian session, the pair extended lower to 0.68707, but buyers stepped in, triggering a snapback rally. That rebound pushed the price back toward the broken swing zone, reaching 0.6912—just a few pips above the top of the area—but the move lacked follow-through. Sellers leaned once again, defending the prior support-now-resistance zone and rotating the price back lower.In early North American trading, the pair has remained mostly below the 0.6896–0.69088 zone, keeping the sellers in control. However, downside momentum has stalled somewhat, with the session low at 0.68707 holding for now. That creates a near-term battleground.What next?If sellers can break and stay below 0.68707, the focus shifts to the 61.8% retracement at 0.68603 (from the December low to the March high). That level is a key technical target. A move below it would increase the bearish tilt and open the door to a more extended decline, where support becomes less defined and more momentum-driven.On the topside, buyers would need to push the price back above 0.69088 to start neutralizing the bearish bias. Absent that move, rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities.In the video above, I walk through the AUDUSD technicals and highlight the key levels that are defining risk—and the next directional move. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

From Jennifer Jacobs at CBS News:The Iranian response to the U.S. peace proposal is expected later today, sources familiar with the matter told Marg Brennan and me. President Trump and top White House officials have been told that Iran's counter-proposal would likely arrive Friday via interlocutors.It will be interesting to see if this gets published.I wonder if there is a path ahead where Iran gives up its nuclear materials for security guarantees and reopening Hormuz. That's a pretty small ask from Iran and Trump may still be able to describe it as a win.Trump and his deputies in yesterday's cabinet meeting heavily leaned on the nuclear messaging, saying that the goal of the mission in Iran was to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons. If they can say they decisively achieved that goal via the return of Iran's nuclear material, then they can walk away without damaging the global economy too much.Key to making it work might be dropping sanctions on Iran. From Iran's side this could be seen as 'reparations' but it would have little cost to Iran. On net, I put the probabilities of that outcome in the short term as low. What is clear is that Trump doesn't still want the Strait closed in May while markets struggle. For Iran, the longer they keep it closed, the more leverage they have.Alternatively, the US may escalate and Iran could see the threat to is electricity as a particularly large threat to the regime in general. If that's the case, they may settle for much less and could be eager to make a deal, as Trump stresses.For now, the market is bracing for more fighting rather than serious negotiations. That has WTI crude oil up $3.56 to $98.04 today and brent above $110. That's not yet 'shortage' pricing but if the blockade lasts another month, we will surely get there and that means much higher oil prices. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prudent to hold interest rates steady and await more clarity on what the Fed should do nextPace and uncertainty of changes around AI have made a lot of Fed officials 'uneasy'War, fast changes due to artificial intelligence have again clouded economic outlookEven before oil shock, progress on inflation was at risk of stallingHigher gasoline prices hit consumer sentiment, can crowd out other spendingSays he will be watching inflation and expectations data carefullyDemand has been steady but continues to feel 'narrow,' based on AI investment and wealthier householdsUnemployment is low, but labor market feels 'fragile,' firms see little wage pressure, multiple applicants for each job'Fog' again obscuring economic outlookRichmond Fed President Tom Barkin is out with a speech that leans heavily on a fog metaphor he first used a year ago — and he's not ready to retire it. Barkin painted a picture of an economy that's still moving forward but where visibility has gotten worse, not better. He pointed to AI disruption, the Iran-related oil spike, and lingering policy uncertainty as forces that have deepened the haze around the outlook and On the surface, the numbers look fine. GDP grew 2% last year, unemployment is hovering around 4.4%, and consumers are still swiping their cards. But Barkin made clear that the headline figures mask a fragility underneath. Job growth is essentially zero, and the only reason unemployment hasn't climbed is because fewer people are entering the workforce through reduced migration and boomer retirements.The demand picture is what stands out as particularly vulnerable. Barkin described strength as "narrow," concentrated in AI-related investment and spending by wealthier households — and he connected those two dots explicitly. An AI pullback would hit business investment and equities, which would then drag down consumption from the wealthy. It's a feedback loop that doesn't have a lot of redundancy built in.On inflation, he acknowledged progress but flagged that recent PCE data suggest things may be stalling — and that was before the oil shock hit. He rattled off a list of supply-side cost pressures since the pandemic that reads like a greatest hits of stagflationary impulses.On policy, Barkin backed the decision to hold rates and wait for clarity. He described the current fed funds rate as sitting at the higher end of the neutral range, which leaves room to move in either direction. But nothing in this speech suggests he's in any rush. The fog, as he sees it, hasn't burned off — and until it does, the Fed is content to sit in the car with the hazards on.Quotable:On the labor market: "Employers tell us that labor is freely available with multiple applicants for every position. They face very little wage pressure." On AI and hiring: "Even where demand is solid, employers are still reluctant to hire in the context of strong productivity, high uncertainty, and the potential impact of AI." The market is pricing in a 40% chance of a Fed hike in October or earlier. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nvidia stock is trading at six-month lows after a 1.6% decline today.The chart is problematic as it bottomed near $170 three times since November but it's now broken that support and trading at the worst levels since September.The chipmaker is now testing the September lows, which stretch down to $164. Should that break, we will be at the lowest since July 2025 and it would also trace out an ugly head-and-shoulders pattern.While all eyes are on Iran at the moment, there is something of a reckoning ongoing in the AI space and software space. Tech shares have been underperforming all year and there's now broad pressure on the Mag 7 names. The fears are something of a barbell. One is that AI won't prove as valuable and transformative as expected, or at least not on a near-term timeline. The opposite fear is that it's so transformative that it undermines the employment market and leads to a recession, and huge political backlash.There is also the question of AI architecture. Memory names this week have been beaten up after Google unveiled a new algorithm that could allow more efficient use of memory storage. The memory names had previously been some of the highest flyers in markets anywhere.Note this chart of Micron, which was a market darling. This looks like a false breakout to the topside and now a reversal.As for Nvidia, should the September lows give way, the measured target would be somewhere around $130. That number is somewhat hard to fathom even though we were there in June.The consensus estimate for this year's earnings is $8.33 so that puts it at just 20x at current levels. At $130, it would be trading at just 15.6x in one of the fastest growing stocks in the world. I suppose the fear could be that there will be a peak in earnings as several companies (perhaps X, MSFT or Meta) drop out of the AI race and leave it to Google, Anthropic and OpenAI. The money could also dry up for the intense spending on chips, which could undermine the forward outlook. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.