News from the economy, politics and the financial markets
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Canadian Dollar rallies to nearly two-week top as USD weakens further ahead of US NFP
The USD/CAD pair remains under some selling pressure for the fourth straight day and drops to a nearly two-week trough on Wednesday.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD eyes $83.00 near upper descending wedge boundary
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around $82.60 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Monday.
Japanese Yen rises above 153.00 on fiscal optimism, traders await US NFP release
The USD/JPY pair tumbles to near 153.15 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Traders pour into Japanese stocks in anticipation of stimulus flowing to consumers and Japanese companies, boosting demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Europe: Geoeconomic reset and US relations – Rabobank
Rabobank analysts note Europe’s evolving geoeconomic stance and its complex relationship with the United States.
USD: Fed independence risk caps jobs impact – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that January’s delayed US labor market report is unlikely to trigger major moves in the US Dollar, as Nonfarm Payrolls are expected around 70,000 with unemployment steady at 4.4%.
GBP/USD: Politics weighs despite hawkish BoE – Scotiabank
Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Pound is slightly softer versus the Dollar, underperforming most G10 currencies despite hawkish comments from BoE’s Mann hinting at reluctance for further easing.
EUR/USD gathers strength above 1.1900 ahead of US January NFP data
The EUR/USD pair gains traction to near 1.1915 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD).
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Climbs beyond 0.7100, fresh three-year peak before US NFP
The AUD/USD pair catches fresh bids following the previous day's modest slide and climbs to a fresh high since February 2023, beyond the 0.7100 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday.
Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD upside could be limited as UK political risks rise
Pound Sterling (GBP) advances against the US Dollar (USD) after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3650 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Constructive outlook remains intact above 109.00
The AUD/JPY cross loses ground around 109.15 during the early European session on Wednesday. Foreign inflows into Japanese equities following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide election victory increase demand for the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
CNY: Softer CPI keeps PBoC easing in play – TD Securities
TD Securities expects China’s January CPI to slow, with its forecast at 0.3% year-on-year versus 0.4% consensus, driven by sharply easing food inflation after recent surges. Weak services price pressures reflect tepid demand.
Joby Aviation continues to fall, my key levels of support here
Joby Aviation (JOBY) continues to trend lower today, down roughly 3% as we move closer to the company’s upcoming earnings release in about two weeks.
USD/TWD: Export surge and flows support Taiwan Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay and Moses Lim highlight that Taiwan’s January exports jumped 69.9% year-on-year, the strongest in 16 years, boosted by base effects and robust demand for advanced semiconductors used in AI. Export growth was broad-based across electronics, chemicals and base metals.
USD/BRL: Markets weigh Selic path and inflows – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s LatAm strategists describe money markets pricing a 50 bp Selic cut in March, while their economist Dev Ashish expects a smaller 25 bp move as the BCB remains cautious on inflation.
EU–India trade: Long-run opportunity for Euro area – Danske Bank
Danske Bank analysts highlight the newly finalised EU–India trade agreement, which will remove tariffs on over 90% of traded goods within seven years. India currently represents just 1.5% of Euro area exports but is projected to grow around 6.5% annually to 2030.
Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes ahead of US NFP
United States (US) ADP reported that, on average, the private sector added 6.5K new jobs in the four weeks ending January 24, up from 5K in the previous week. Other than that, Retail Sales remained unchanged in December, below expectations for a 0.4% increase and below November’s 0.6% advance.
Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 2.9% in January from previous 2.8%
Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 2.9% in January from previous 2.8%
US: Trade rhetoric seen as market noise – UBS
UBS’s Paul Donovan comments on US President Trump’s social media attacks on Canada, including threats to block a US-Canada bridge and link a Canada-China trade deal to ice hockey in Canada.
Gold dips but holds $5,000 as US Dollar recovers on soft data
Gold price turns negative during Tuesday’s session, even though worse than expected data in the US pushed investors to trim US Dollar shorts, pushing the yellow metal lower, but remaining above the $5,000 threshold. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades with losses of 0.72% at $5,022.
Fed: Narrow easing window and range-bound yields – NBC
National Bank Of Canada (NBC) analysts Taylor Schleich, Ethan Currie and Warren Lovely, expect the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in March and June 2026, driven by labour market concerns despite firmer growth and inflation.
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