RBI seen on hold through 2027 as oil risks skew inflation outlook higherSummary:Reuters poll: 69 of 71 economists expect RBI to hold at 5.25% on April 8 Majority see rates unchanged until at least mid-2027 Inflation below 4% target gives RBI policy flexibility Middle East conflict raises oil-driven inflation risks RBI expected to maintain neutral stance, avoid dovish tone Growth seen around 7%, but stagflation risks flaggedA strong majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% at its April 8 policy meeting, according to a Reuters poll, with expectations building that rates will remain on hold for an extended period—potentially until mid-2027.The survey, conducted between March 23–26, showed 69 of 71 economists forecasting no change at the upcoming meeting, underscoring a broad consensus that current policy settings remain appropriate. This view has remained largely stable since February, despite the escalation in geopolitical tensions linked to the Middle East conflict.India’s inflation backdrop has provided policymakers with some flexibility. Price pressures have remained below the RBI’s medium-term 4% target for roughly a year, allowing the central bank to maintain a neutral stance while monitoring evolving risks. At the same time, economic growth continues to hold firm, with forecasts pointing to an average expansion rate of around 7.0% over the coming fiscal years.However, the external environment has become more uncertain. The ongoing conflict involving Iran has disrupted key global energy supply routes, including critical shipping corridors, raising the risk of higher oil prices. As one of the world’s largest oil importers, India remains particularly sensitive to such shocks, which could feed through to inflation and complicate the policy outlook.Economists broadly agree that while current inflation conditions are benign enough to absorb some energy-driven price increases, risks are skewed to the upside. The central bank is therefore expected to remain cautious, balancing the need to support growth with vigilance over potential inflationary pressures.Most analysts believe it is too early to consider any rate hikes, despite these risks. Instead, the RBI is likely to maintain its neutral policy stance, avoiding premature tightening while closely assessing how geopolitical developments evolve. At the same time, there is a clear expectation that policymakers will avoid sounding overly dovish, given the uncertain trajectory of global energy markets.Looking ahead, inflation is projected to average around 4.3% over the next two fiscal years, broadly in line with previous forecasts. However, concerns about stagflation risks are emerging, with a majority of economists identifying a combination of slower growth and rising prices as the key downside scenario facing India’s economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand prepares fuel contingency plan as Hormuz risks threaten supplySummary:New Zealand introduces four-phase fuel contingency framework Currently in monitoring phase with no immediate restrictions Government flags Hormuz disruption as key risk scenario Fuel stocks provide ~46–53 days of coverage including shipments Later phases could prioritise fuel for critical sectors Temporary rule change allows Australian-standard fuel importsNew Zealand has outlined a staged contingency plan to manage potential disruptions to fuel supply, as global energy risks intensify amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Authorities stressed there is no immediate need for restrictions, but signalled a clear framework is in place should conditions deteriorate.Finance Minister Nicola Willis said the country is currently operating under the first phase of a four-stage plan. This initial stage focuses on close monitoring of global developments and encouraging voluntary reductions in fuel consumption where possible. Officials emphasised that, for now, supply chains remain stable, with fuel companies expressing confidence in deliveries through to the end of May.Despite this relatively calm near-term outlook, the government is preparing for more severe scenarios. Willis highlighted the Strait of Hormuz as a key risk, noting that any prolonged disruption to tanker flows through the critical shipping route could materially impact fuel availability. Additional risks include reduced refinery output from key international suppliers, which could tighten global supply further.New Zealand remains particularly vulnerable to such shocks due to its heavy reliance on imported refined fuel. Current stock levels provide some buffer, with approximately 49 days of petrol, 46 days of diesel and 53 days of jet fuel available when including shipments already en route. However, authorities acknowledge that sustained global disruptions could quickly erode these reserves.A ministerial oversight group has been established to assess conditions and determine whether to escalate through the plan’s phases. Decisions will be guided by several indicators, including changes in domestic fuel inventories and potential export restrictions from refineries supplying New Zealand.Should conditions worsen, later phases of the plan would introduce more targeted interventions. These could include prioritising fuel distribution to critical sectors such as emergency services, freight, and food supply chains. Businesses may also be encouraged to adopt flexible working arrangements, including increased remote work, to reduce fuel demand.However, the government has drawn a clear boundary around education, signalling that school closures or widespread remote learning, seen during the COVID period,are not being considered as part of the response.In a pre-emptive move to strengthen supply resilience, New Zealand has also temporarily eased fuel import standards, allowing imports that meet Australian specifications for up to 12 months. This measure is intended to broaden sourcing options and reduce exposure to disruptions stemming from the Middle East crisis.Don't want to be seeing this (we already are in some parts of Australia). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CNN analysis warns U.S. escalation in Iran risks casualties and uncertain outcomes.Summary:CNN frames U.S. options in Iran as high-risk with uncertain success Pentagon exploring troop deployments and seizure of key assets Trump balancing diplomacy pause with military build-up Iran retains leverage via Strait of Hormuz disruption Ground operations seen as likely to trigger escalation and casualties Political risks rising domestically over potential troop deploymentCNN reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is facing a narrowing set of military options in Iran, with internal Pentagon planning increasingly focused on scenarios that carry high risks and uncertain outcomes. The piece frames the situation as a strategic dilemma: while the U.S. has already degraded Iran’s capabilities through sustained airstrikes, achieving a decisive end to the conflict may require escalation that could prove costly and unpredictable.According to multiple sources cited, Pentagon planners are exploring options that go beyond the current air campaign, including the deployment of ground troops to secure key strategic assets inside Iran. These include seizing control of critical infrastructure such as Kharg Island—responsible for the majority of Iran’s oil exports—or targeting Iran’s remaining nuclear materials. However, the analysis emphasises that such operations would likely expose U.S. forces to significant casualties while offering no guarantee of ending the conflict.The report highlights a tension within the administration’s approach. Trump has signalled a desire for a quick resolution, pausing planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure to allow time for diplomacy, while simultaneously ordering additional troops into the region to maintain military leverage. Negotiations themselves appear fragile, with proposals from both sides rejected and no clear pathway to agreement.CNN’s framing suggests that Iran retains meaningful leverage despite military setbacks, particularly through its control over the Strait of Hormuz. By tightening its grip on this critical chokepoint, Tehran has exacerbated disruptions in global energy markets, reinforcing its negotiating position.The article also underscores the escalation risks associated with any U.S. ground operation. Military action of that scale would likely trigger retaliatory strikes by Iran, potentially targeting energy infrastructure across the region or expanding attacks to key shipping routes such as the Red Sea. This could significantly deepen the global energy crisis and broaden the conflict.Domestically, the report notes growing political sensitivity around the prospect of U.S. casualties. While the administration has so far limited troop losses, a shift toward ground operations could erode public support and expose divisions within the Republican Party, where some lawmakers have already voiced opposition to deploying troops.Overall, the piece leans toward a cautious and somewhat sceptical view of escalation, arguing that the remaining options available to the U.S. are fraught with risk, lack clear success pathways, and could entangle Washington in a deeper and more prolonged conflict than intended. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Profits at China's industrial firms grew 15.2% in the first two months over the same period last year. accelerated from a 0.6% increase for the whole of last yearADDED - Detail and analysis here:China industrial profits jump 15.2% as war risks threaten outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 146.2bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operationsfor the week the PBOC have injected net 231.9bn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan flags FX intervention risk as oil-driven volatility pressures yenSummary:Japan signals readiness to stabilise funding conditions for businesses Authorities link FX volatility to oil-driven speculative moves G7 finance ministers to hold online meeting on market conditions Japan warns it will take “decisive steps” in FX if needed Officials monitoring markets with heightened vigilanceJapan’s Finance Minister Katayama signalled a stepped-up policy response to rising market volatility (and falling yen!), warning that authorities are closely monitoring currency moves and stand ready to act if needed. The comments come as global energy-driven turbulence spills into foreign exchange markets, particularly impacting the yen.Katayama said Japan is preparing measures to ensure stable funding conditions for businesses, suggesting policymakers are increasingly alert to the risk that market stress, particularly via higher energy costs, could tighten financial conditions domestically. This aligns with broader concerns that the ongoing Middle East conflict is feeding into global price pressures and liquidity strains.On the currency front, the finance minister was explicit in linking recent foreign exchange volatility to oil price dynamics, noting that speculative moves are emerging as energy markets remain unstable. The yen has been particularly sensitive to swings in oil, given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy, which worsens trade dynamics when crude prices rise.In response, Katayama confirmed that Japan will convene an online meeting of G7 finance ministers, signalling a coordinated international focus on currency stability. She added that authorities are prepared to take “decisive steps” in the foreign exchange market if excessive volatility persists, language that markets typically interpret as a precursor to possible intervention.The remarks reinforce a familiar policy stance from Tokyo: while Japan tolerates gradual currency moves, it remains highly sensitive to rapid or disorderly fluctuations, especially when driven by speculative flows rather than fundamentals. The emphasis on “high vigilance” underscores the government’s readiness to act quickly if conditions deteriorate.Taken together, the messaging points to a growing intersection between geopolitics, energy markets, and FX stability. With oil prices acting as a key transmission channel into currency markets, Japan appears increasingly prepared to coordinate globally while retaining the option of unilateral intervention to stabilise the yen if needed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. balances troop build-up with diplomacy window as Iran tensions keep energy and inflation risks elevatedSummary:Pentagon weighs deploying up to 10,000 additional U.S. troops to Middle East Trump pauses Iran energy strikes for 10 days to allow negotiations Conflicting accounts on whether Iran requested extension Iran allows limited tanker passage through Hormuz as goodwill signal Israel kills IRGC naval commander tied to Strait disruption OECD lifts U.S. inflation forecast to 4.2% on energy shockThe Pentagon is weighing plans to deploy up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, as U.S. President Donald Trump balances escalating military pressure with a renewed push for diplomacy with Iran. Defense officials said the troop option is designed to expand the administration’s flexibility, allowing for rapid escalation if talks fail while maintaining a credible deterrent posture in the region.The potential deployment comes as Trump announced a temporary pause on strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, extending the deadline for military action by 10 days to April 6. The pause is intended to provide space for negotiations, though conflicting narratives have emerged around its origins. While Trump said the extension came at Iran’s request, mediators indicated Tehran had not explicitly sought additional time.Signs of tentative de-escalation have appeared alongside continued military signalling. Iran recently permitted several Pakistan-flagged oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a move Trump described as a goodwill gesture suggesting Tehran may be open to negotiations. Pakistan confirmed it is acting as an intermediary, relaying messages between Washington and Tehran, with Iranian officials reportedly reviewing U.S. proposals.At the same time, tensions remain elevated. Israel said it killed a senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy, whom it accused of orchestrating efforts to mine and disrupt shipping through the Strait. Meanwhile, the head of U.S. Central Command issued a stark warning to Iranian naval personnel, urging them to abandon their posts or face potential targeting.In Washington, scrutiny of the conflict is set to increase, with the Senate Armed Services Committee planning its first public hearing on the war, although this is not expected until mid-April due to the congressional recess.The economic fallout is also becoming clearer. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued the conflict could ultimately deliver long-term geopolitical stability despite near-term volatility. However, the OECD has sharply revised its U.S. inflation outlook higher to 4.2% for the year, citing rising global energy prices linked to the conflict—underscoring the immediate inflationary risks even as policymakers frame a longer-term strategic payoff. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Fed’s Barr warns energy shock could lift inflation expectations Concern that another price shock risks entrenching inflation Calls for patience before any further policy easing Labour market balanced but fragile due to weak hiring Flags concerns over financial system resilience amid regulatory changesFederal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict could trigger a renewed inflation shock, potentially lifting inflation expectations and complicating the central bank’s path back to its 2% target.Speaking on Thursday, Barr said the U.S. economy has remained resilient through a series of recent shocks, but those same developments have made it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to fully restore price stability. He highlighted particular concern around the risk that another surge in energy costs could shift both short- and long-term inflation expectations higher, increasing the likelihood that inflation becomes more persistent.Barr emphasised that the Fed must remain vigilant to this risk, noting that the longer inflation stays above target, the greater the chance it becomes embedded in wage- and price-setting behaviour across the economy. Such a shift would make inflation more difficult to bring down and could require a more prolonged period of restrictive policy.The outlook remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments. Barr said that if the Middle East conflict is resolved quickly, the economic impact could be limited. However, a prolonged disruption, particularly one that sustains elevated oil and commodity prices, could have broader implications for both inflation and economic activity.Against this backdrop, Barr signalled a cautious approach to monetary policy, arguing that it is appropriate for the Fed to take time to assess incoming data before making any further adjustments to interest rates. His comments align with a growing sentiment among policymakers that uncertainty remains elevated and that premature easing could risk reigniting inflation pressures.On the labour market, Barr described conditions as broadly in balance, with employment and labour force growth aligned. However, he cautioned that subdued hiring levels leave the market vulnerable to adverse shocks, reinforcing the Fed’s need to proceed carefully. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed’s Jefferson signals steady policy but flags rising energy-driven inflation risks and heightened uncertainty.Summary:Fed’s Jefferson says policy is well positioned, no urgency to adjust rates Inflation expected to rise near term due to energy shock Sustained higher oil prices seen as key upside risk to inflation Labour market “roughly in balance” but fragile, with downside risks Tariffs and geopolitics complicate outlook, reinforcing cautious Fed stanceFederal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signalled a steady policy stance while warning that rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions are complicating the inflation outlook and reinforcing uncertainty around the economic trajectory.Speaking on Thursday, Jefferson said current monetary policy is “appropriately positioned,” suggesting no immediate need for adjustment as the Fed assesses evolving risks. He indicated that the existing stance should continue to support the labour market while allowing inflation to gradually resume its decline toward the central bank’s 2% target, particularly as the effects of earlier tariff increases fade.However, Jefferson acknowledged that the near-term inflation path is likely to be more challenging. He expects headline inflation to move higher in the short term, reflecting the recent surge in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. While he characterised the initial impact as potentially modest and temporary, he cautioned that a sustained rise in oil prices could have more material consequences, including broader pass-through into the economy and risks of inflation becoming more entrenched.The broader risk backdrop remains skewed to the upside for inflation, with ongoing trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions cited as key drivers. At the same time, Jefferson highlighted the dual nature of the energy shock, noting that higher prices could also weigh on consumer spending and business activity, creating a more complex policy environment.On growth, Jefferson maintained a relatively stable outlook, projecting the U.S. economy to expand around 2% this year or slightly faster, supported by investment trends and productivity gains. The labour market, meanwhile, was described as “roughly in balance,” with unemployment expected to remain near current levels, though he warned it remains vulnerable to adverse shocks given subdued hiring dynamics.Taken together, Jefferson’s remarks reinforce a cautious, data-dependent Fed stance, with policymakers likely to remain on hold as they navigate the competing risks of persistent inflation and potential growth softening. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Scanning some of the news overnight.Summary:Up to 40% of Gulf refining capacity reportedly damaged, removing ~11mb/d Supply shock expected to persist, with repairs taking months to years Europe scrambles for alternative energy, Italy seeks Algerian gas flows UK and Germany accelerate green transition amid fossil fuel strain ECB signals readiness to act on inflation shock, avoiding policy paralysisEurope is confronting a deepening energy shock as damage to Gulf refining infrastructure and disrupted LNG flows tighten global supply, raising inflation risks and forcing urgent policy responses.France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure said between 30% and 40% of Gulf refining capacity has been damaged or destroyed following Iranian retaliatory strikes, resulting in an estimated shortfall of around 11 million barrels per day in global oil markets. The scale of the disruption underscores the severity of the current crisis, with Lescure warning that while some facilities could be brought back online within months, full restoration may take up to three years.The loss of refining capacity compounds an already fragile energy system, particularly for Europe, which remains highly exposed to imported fuel. The disruption has not only constrained crude processing but also tightened availability of refined products, amplifying price pressures across the region.In response, European governments are moving quickly to secure alternative energy supplies. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni travelled to Algeria for emergency talks aimed at increasing gas deliveries, as Italy seeks to offset lost liquefied natural gas flows from Qatar. The move highlights the growing reliance on North African energy sources as Europe attempts to stabilise supply.At the same time, the crisis is accelerating structural shifts in energy policy. Both the United Kingdom and Germany signalled that the current supply shock is reinforcing the urgency of their transitions toward renewable energy, as policymakers look to reduce dependence on volatile fossil fuel imports.The inflationary implications are already feeding into the monetary policy outlook. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the ECB has multiple tools available to respond to the shock and emphasised that policymakers would act decisively rather than hesitate in the face of rising price pressures.Taken together, the combination of supply disruption, geopolitical risk, and policy recalibration points to a prolonged period of elevated energy prices and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty across Europe. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Wall Street Journal (gated): Iran denies requesting strike pause, highlighting fragile diplomacy and low odds of a near-term ceasefire.Summary:Iran has not requested pause on energy-site strikes, mediators say Contradicts Trump’s claim pause was made at Iran’s request Tehran signals openness to talks but no final leadership approval yet U.S. 15-point plan seen as overly demanding by Iran Ceasefire odds remain low amid entrenched, incompatible positionsIran has not requested a pause in strikes on its energy infrastructure, according to mediators involved in ongoing peace efforts, casting doubt on claims from U.S. President Donald Trump that the temporary halt was made at Tehran’s request. Credit: Wall Street Journal.Trump said earlier that Washington would pause attacks on Iran’s energy sector for 10 days, extending a previous deadline to April 6 to allow space for negotiations. He indicated the move followed a request from Iran, but mediators say no such request has been formally made.Instead, Iranian officials have signalled conditional openness to negotiations, while emphasising that the country’s leadership has yet to make a final decision on whether to engage. This suggests that while backchannel discussions are ongoing, Tehran remains internally divided or cautious about committing to talks under current conditions.At the centre of the impasse is a U.S.-proposed 15-point framework aimed at ending the conflict. The plan reportedly offers relief from sanctions in exchange for broad concessions from Iran, including restrictions on its nuclear programme, missile capabilities, and regional activities. However, Iranian officials have pushed back strongly, arguing that the proposal contains excessive demands and lacks balance.Tehran has also drawn clear red lines, ruling out discussions on its missile programme as an entry point for negotiations and resisting any commitment to permanently halt uranium enrichment. These positions highlight the fundamental gaps between the two sides and the difficulty in reaching even preliminary agreement on the scope of talks.Mediators assess that the likelihood of a near-term ceasefire remains low, with both Washington and Tehran holding firm on positions that are largely incompatible. The absence of a formal Iranian request for a pause further underscores the fragile and uncertain nature of current diplomatic efforts.For markets, the mixed messaging reinforces uncertainty around the trajectory of the conflict, with any de-escalation still contingent on significant concessions from both sides.This was China's take on Trump's war, This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut calls to late 2026, citing inflation risks, tariffs, and energy shocks raising the bar for easing. Initial call is here:Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut outlook to September, December (from June, September)Adding more now. Summary:Morgan Stanley pushes Fed rate cut timing back to September and December Inflation concerns dominate Fed messaging, with heavy focus on oil and prices Tariff pass-through seen as key hurdle before Fed can assess disinflation Energy shock adds further uncertainty, raising bar for easing Markets pricing fewer cuts, with risk Fed delivers only one late-2026 moveMorgan Stanley has pushed back its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, arguing that persistent inflation risks and heightened macro uncertainty will delay easing until later in the year.The bank now expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in September and December, a shift from its prior forecast for June and September. The revision reflects a growing view that recent increases in oil prices and renewed upward pressure on headline inflation will require more time for policymakers to gain confidence that disinflation is firmly underway.The firm highlighted that inflation concerns dominated the Fed’s (March) post-meeting communication, with a clear imbalance in focus compared to labour market conditions. Analysis of the press conference showed a strong skew toward inflation-related discussions, reinforcing the view that policymakers remain highly sensitive to upside price risks, particularly those stemming from energy markets.A key takeaway from the meeting was the Fed’s cautious approach to supply-driven inflation shocks. While central banks have historically looked through energy-driven price spikes, policymakers signalled that the current environment is more complex. In particular, the Fed appears unwilling to dismiss energy-related inflation pressures until it is confident that tariff-related price increases have fully passed through to core goods.This sequencing effectively raises the bar for declaring that disinflation has resumed, delaying the conditions under which the Fed would feel comfortable easing policy. At the same time, longer-term inflation expectations remain a critical variable, with policymakers likely to require evidence that expectations stay anchored before shifting toward rate cuts.Market pricing reflects this more cautious outlook. Investors have pared back expectations for near-term easing, with pricing at one stage implying only a single rate cut late in the year.Morgan Stanley maintains that easing remains likely in the second half, supported either by clearer disinflation or a modest weakening in the labour market, but stresses that the timing is increasingly uncertain. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran offers conditional Hormuz access to Spain-linked vessels, signalling selective easing, though global energy flows remain constrained.Summary:Iran signals openness to Spain-linked Hormuz transit requests “Non-hostile vessels” allowed passage with coordination, per prior UN note First explicit concession toward an EU state amid ongoing conflict Limited practical impact given Spain’s small tanker presence in the Gulf Signs of selective easing as Thailand and Malaysia vessels also transitIran has signalled a potential softening in its approach to maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating it would be receptive to requests from Spain regarding vessel transit, in what appears to be the first explicit concession extended to a European Union member since the conflict escalated.The Iranian embassy in Madrid said Spain is viewed as a country that respects international law, suggesting this underpins Tehran’s willingness to consider transit-related requests. The remarks follow a broader position outlined by Iran earlier this week, where it told the United Nations that “non-hostile vessels” could pass through the strategic waterway if they coordinated with Iranian authorities.The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, handling roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Since the onset of hostilities, traffic through the strait has been severely disrupted, contributing to heightened volatility in global energy markets and reinforcing supply concerns.However, there are emerging signs of selective easing. A Thai oil tanker was recently able to transit the strait following diplomatic coordination, while Malaysian authorities confirmed that their vessels have also been permitted passage. These developments suggest that access may be increasingly contingent on bilateral engagement with Tehran, rather than a blanket restriction on shipping.Despite the apparent diplomatic opening, the practical implications for Spain are limited. Spain maintains a relatively small merchant fleet, with only a handful of oil and gas carriers, and ship-tracking data indicates that none are currently operating within the Gulf. Moreover, only a small portion of its tanker fleet meets the typical vetting standards required by major oil companies.Spanish officials have also struck a cautious tone, emphasising calls for de-escalation and diplomacy while downplaying the significance of Iran’s remarks.Overall, while Iran’s signal toward Spain points to a potential framework for controlled transit, the broader outlook for energy flows through Hormuz remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments and ongoing negotiations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump is speaking with Fox. Repeats that Iran requested he pause on strikes (10 day pause). Iranian officials deny this, "We have not submitted any request regarding potential U.S. attacks.”Whatever, where we are at is paused, regardless. Oil flow remains constipated with Hormuz blocked. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed’s Cook flags a clear shift toward inflation risk, driven by tariffs and the Iran war, with markets now dialing back expectations for rate cuts.Summary:Fed’s Cook signals shift toward inflation risk amid Iran war shock Energy-driven inflation pressures seen pushing Fed further from 2% target Prior disinflation progress already derailed by tariffs, now compounded by geopolitics Balance of risks moving away from neutral toward upside inflation concerns Market pricing reflects this shift, with reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signalled a clear shift in the policy risk balance toward inflation, as escalating geopolitical tensions and the ongoing Iran conflict raise the prospect of renewed price pressures.Speaking on Thursday in remarks after her speech, Cook acknowledged that uncertainty remains elevated, but emphasised that the balance of risks is no longer evenly distributed. Instead, she flagged a growing tilt toward inflation, driven in part by the energy shock linked to the Iran war. She warned that the conflict could have a “substantial effect” on inflation dynamics, particularly through higher oil and energy costs feeding into broader price pressures.Cook noted that the Federal Reserve had been making progress toward its 2% inflation target, but that trajectory has already been disrupted by tariffs. The latest geopolitical developments, she suggested, risk pushing inflation even further away from target, complicating the policy outlook.Her remarks reinforce a broader shift in the Fed’s reaction function, where policymakers are becoming increasingly sensitive to upside inflation risks stemming from global supply disruptions rather than domestic demand alone. The Iran conflict, in particular, introduces a new layer of uncertainty, with energy markets highly exposed to potential supply constraints and price spikes.This evolving backdrop is being reflected in market pricing. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been scaled back in recent sessions, as investors reassess the likelihood of persistent inflation pressures. The combination of tariff-related price impacts and geopolitically driven energy costs has led markets to question whether the Fed will have sufficient confidence to ease policy in the near term.In effect, Cook’s comments underscore a shift from a cautiously balanced outlook toward a more inflation-conscious stance, suggesting the Fed may need to remain restrictive for longer if these risks materialise. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand consumer confidence March 2026 91.3prior 100.1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mexico central bank lowers benchmark rate to 6.75% from 7.00% Banxico board was not unanimous on the rate decision 3 members voted to cut rates to 6.75% 2 members voted to hold rates at 7.00% Balance of inflation risks remains tilted to the upside Headline inflation expected to converge to target in Q2 2027 Board will evaluate additional rate adjustments going forward Policy outlook to consider all inflation drivers and external conditions Policy stance seen as adequate to address challenges, including Middle East conflict escalationThe USDMXN has moved higher (lower MXN) on the news. Technically, the price is moving away from the 200 and 100 hour MAs and moving toward a swing area between 17.9433 and 17.9697. The risk defining level is now the 100 hour MA at 17.8201. Below that a move below the 200 hour MA would be needed to put the sellers more in control. That MA is at 17.774. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil remains tightly tied to developments in the Iran conflict. While the Trump administration continues to highlight military successes, the broader strategic picture is less settled. Iran’s leadership has not agreed to the proposed 15-point plan, keeping tensions elevated and leaving uncertainty around what comes next. As long as that uncertainty lingers—and the risk of further escalation remains—oil is likely to stay supported.Today, crude oil is settling higher by $4.16 (+4.61%) at $94.48, reflecting that ongoing geopolitical premium.From a technical perspective, the move higher has shifted the short-term bias back to the upside. The price reclaimed the 200-hour moving average at $94.11, a key barometer for buyers and sellers. Earlier in the day, the price dipped below the 100-hour moving average, but rebounded and based against that level near $92.41, signaling that buyers are leaning against support.For buyers to stay in control, the price needs to hold above the 200-hour moving average and build momentum. If that happens, traders will start to look toward the next upside targets between $100 and $102.44.On the flip side, a move back below $94.11, followed by a break under the 100-hour moving average at $92.41, would tilt the bias back in favor of sellers and suggest the recent rally is losing traction.In the video, I walk through these key levels, why they matter, and how they define risk and opportunity going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NASDAQ index is currently down 430 points or -1.96% at 21,500. That takes the price below the low price from last Friday's trade at 21,522.75. It also takes a price to the lowest level since September 4.The next major target area comes between 20,931 and 21,033 (swing lows from September 2 and August 19. Below that truth would look toward 21,573 (swing low from July 30) and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 2025 low. That level comes in at 20,491.Technology stocks have been particularly hard-hit today, along with industrials. Among the bottom 20 stocks in the S&P 500 today, 13 come from the technology sector — largely semiconductor and electronics firms. The overarching driver is the ongoing U.S.-Iran war and its ripple effects on global supply chains and energy prices.Key Stories by StockCiena (CIEN) -10.58% — The biggest loser on the list. Shares fell after an insider sale spooked investors — SVP Brodie Gage sold 5,000 shares at around $405, a 9.74% reduction in his position — on top of the broader tech selloff.Lam Research (LRCX) -9.11% — Shares fell on concerns about potential supply chain disruptions for key chipmaking materials. South Korean officials highlighted the risk that the Iran conflict could interrupt the supply of helium, which is critical for managing heat during semiconductor manufacturing and has no viable substitutes.Meta (META) -8.14% — A double hit today. A California jury found Meta liable for contributing to the depression and anxiety of a woman who used social media compulsively as a child, awarding $6 million in damages with Meta on the hook for 70%. Separately, Meta is also laying off several hundred employees.Micron (MU) -7.33%, AMD -6.79%, SMCI -8.61%, WDC -7.10%, INTC -6.25%, TSM -5.67% — All caught in the same semiconductor wave. Rising energy costs from the Iran conflict are hitting South Korean memory fabs — key customers for many of these companies — which cascades into equipment makers and chipmakers alike. This is happening even as many of these firms recently reported strong fundamentals.DJT -5.17% — Trump Media continues its recent slide with no specific catalyst today beyond the general risk-off mood and that the company makes no monetary, but is a sounding board for Pres. Trump. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.