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USD: Data-heavy week shapes macro narrative – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir outline a busy United States (US) data calendar that will guide US Dollar (USD) traders, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation, ISM manufacturing and consumer confidence.
GBP/JPY slips as UK political risk pressures Pound, Yen weakness limits losses
GBP/JPY gives back part of its earlier gains on Monday as the British Pound (GBP) comes under pressure following reports that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will face a parliamentary vote on a possible probe into whether he misled lawmakers over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to th
Fed: One more cut still expected – Rabobank
Rabobank strategists reiterate its view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to cut rates again this year, even as United States (US) Treasury yields edge higher on persistent inflation concerns.
Keir Starmer to face UK parliament vote over claims he misled lawmakers – The Times
According to The Times, the United Kingdom (UK) House of Commons will vote on Tuesday on whether to launch an investigation through the Committee of Privileges to determine if Prime Minister Keir Starmer misled lawmakers over the appointment of former US ambassador Peter Mandelson.
ECB: Cautious stance with June risk – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Rainer Guntermann argues that the ECB is likely to maintain a balanced hold this week, with April HICP data expected to show energy-driven headline inflation and a temporary dip in core.
EUR/USD: Energy shock and ECB delay rate response – MUFG
MUFG strategists say EUR/USD has retreated toward the middle of its 1.1400–1.2000 range as the Euro faces headwinds from the Middle East energy shock and weaker euro-zone PMIs.
GBP/USD edges higher as softer US Dollar, cooler UK inflation temper policy uncertainty
GBP/USD trades around 1.3565 on Monday, up 0.23% on the day, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD) amid improving risk appetite.
USD/JPY: Breakout risk on BoJ surprise – ING
ING’s Chris Turner highlights unusually low USD/JPY volatility despite multiple global risks and key central bank meetings. Their economists warn markets underprice the risk of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and possible upward revisions to inflation forecasts.
USD: Softer tone as markets await Fed – BNY
BNY's Bob Savage notes that the US Dollar (USD) is slightly softer as record-high equities hold despite higher Oil prices and mixed United States (US) futures.
Oil: Brent back above 100 on war risks – DBS
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that Brent has climbed back above $100 per barrel as geopolitical risks intensify. The move comes ahead of the War Powers Resolution vote, with markets focused on the potential for an unauthorized extension of US operations and a dual blockade scenario.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls aim for 0.5930 amid US Dollar weakness
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is rallying against a weaker US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Monday, reaching session highs above 0.5900 at the time of writing, after bouncing at lows around 0.5840 on Friday.
EUR/GBP: Downside risks from head and shoulders – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note that EUR/GBP has formed a lower high near 0.8740 and is struggling above its 200‑day moving average, with price action resembling a Head and Shoulders pattern.
Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ up to $2.499B in March from previous $-1.09B
Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ up to $2.499B in March from previous $-1.09B
Mexico Trade Balance, $: $5.932B (March) vs $-0.463B
Mexico Trade Balance, $: $5.932B (March) vs $-0.463B
USD/JPY: Convergence delayed but capped by intervention – HSBC
HSBC strategists highlight that the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the weakest G10 currency month-to-date, with USD/JPY trading in an unusually narrow range despite Japan’s large net energy import status and Gulf exposure.
Gold: Investor appetite sours on inflation concerns – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey observe that managed money net long positions in COMEX Gold have declined, with investors turning more cautious.
EUR/USD: EU policy risks and weaker German sentiment – BNY
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that China has criticized the European Union's (EU) proposed Industrial Accelerator Act as discriminatory, warning of possible countermeasures that could affect trade and investor confidence.
US Dollar Index trades upside down near 98.30 ahead of US markets opening
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds its losses suffered after giving back opening gains around 98.30 during the European trading session on Monday, ahead of the United States (US) markets opening.
Gold scales higher as US-Iran peace hopes and easing inflationary concerns undermine USD
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and rallies over $50 from the Asian session low, around the $4,672 region.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA support near 186.50
EUR/JPY inches lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 186.70 during Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned within the ascending channel, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.
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