There is arguably just one set of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. As things stand, buyers are continuing to try for an upside break but is falling short of firmly breaching the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from April to June. That key level is seen at 1.1586. So, the expiries above will add another defensive layer in keeping price action more contained below or in and around the key technical level for now.The dollar has been trading fairly mixed this week but might see firmer direction after the FOMC meeting minutes later in the day.But all else being equal, the expiries here should at least help to keep any upside momentum in check for the most part unless the dollar falls off. The drop in bond yields yesterday definitely did not help in delivering a more coherent picture across broader markets this week. So, it is pretty much a case of traders still figuring things out.Looking to tomorrow though, there will be much larger option expiries to be wary about - especially for EUR/USD. So, that will be something to consider too as we look to the second half of the week.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The main focus will be on the UK CPI report though, with that coming in hot and fresh. As for the Eurozone CPI report, it will be the final estimate for July. So, that typically isn't really a market mover as the numbers don't tend to deviate much from the initial readings.The UK inflation figures will be of much interest, as it will play into how markets take to the BOE outlook in the final few months of the year. The inflation pulse will carry more weight compared to the labour market data from yesterday. So, that will make the data release today much more important.Headline annual inflation is estimated to see a rebound from the June low of 2.6% (unrounded 2.65%) to 2.9% in July. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is estimated to dip slightly to 2.5% (unrounded 2.52%) - compared to the June reading of 2.6% (unrounded 2.57%). The core estimate if seen thereabouts, will keep close by to the BOE's own forecast of 2.55%.The pick up in headline inflation is once again due to the swing in energy prices. The rise in the Ofgem price cap for Q3 will also be part and parcel of that, so that is likely to boost energy price inflation. In turn, that will also lead to a boost to headline inflation.As for services inflation, it is expected to remain sticky but reflect a decline to 3.4% in July (compared to 3.6% in June). Some analysts are pointing to base effects in air fares with some also expecting the government’s Great British Summer savings policy to put a drag on prices for recreational and catering services. On the latter though, the range of calls are either for it to not have any material impact to it being a 0.1% to 0.2% drag on headline inflation.Barring any major surprises, the numbers shouldn't change the BOE outlook all too much at the end of the day. Traders are pricing in ~78% odds of no change for September with the next decision in November being more of a coin flip.So unless inflation unexpectedly threatens a surge back to 3% or higher, the BOE can rest a bit easier today ahead of the upcoming policy decision next month.As for the Eurozone inflation figures, they will likely just reaffirm what we already know from the preliminary report: Euro area inflation nudges up in July, keeps the pressure on the ECBThe only difference is that pricing for a September rate hike has firmed in recent weeks, with the odds showing ~91% now. That comes after some recent hawkish commentary from the ECB in posturing for the next move. Adding to that, higher energy prices and recent US-Iran developments are just putting more pressure on policymakers to make their final move. From last week: ECB poised to deliver another rate hike in September - poll This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The critical chart for crypto as Bitcoin ranges between $64K and $65KBitcoin spot is trading inside a narrow but important daily decision range between roughly $64,085 and $65,050. These levels are the previous month's point of control and value area high. A daily close outside this band could provide the next meaningful directional clue, while two consecutive closes would offer stronger confirmation.Key takeaways for Bitcoin and crypto tradersImmediate range: Bitcoin is caught between $64,085 and $65,050.Bullish clue: A daily close above $65,050 would strengthen the recovery and the possible bull-flag interpretation.Bearish clue: A daily close below $64,085 would weaken the recovery and bring lower support back into focus.Confirmation matters: One close is an early signal. Two consecutive daily closes outside the range would reduce, but not remove, the risk of a false breakout.Wider crypto impact: Bitcoin often guides crypto risk appetite, but Ethereum and altcoins still need to confirm the same direction on their own charts.As shown above on my daily BTCUSDT chart, Bitcoin spot trades between the previous month's point of control near $64,085 and value area high near $65,050, with the upper boundary of a descending pitchfork also nearby.In addition to the above chart, I was previously tracking Bitcoin's attempt to build accepted value above the crucial $64,000 to $64,095 Point of Control, where buyers must prove genuine value repair rather than just temporary stabilization off the $62,380 monthly Value Area Low. This digital asset consolidation unfolds against a volatile macro backdrop now, as Eamonn at investingLive.com reported on the broad risk-off selloff across Asian equities that triggered a KOSPI circuit breaker amid Middle East geopolitical escalations and rising crude prices. At the same time, semiconductor market structure remains in focus after Eamonn also highlighted that Beijing is easing restrictions on Nvidia H200 chip shipments for top tech firms, setting up key order-flow catalysts across the broader tech and AI hardware space. The previous report is a bearish sentiment for crypto while the news from Bejing is slightly bullish for 'risk-on' assets. But as most of you know, I am mainly watcing what price does. So let's dive into it.Why is the $64K-$65K Bitcoin range so important?The wider grey range on the chart still matters, but it is too broad to provide the most useful short-term signal. The smaller yellow zone between approximately $64,000 and $65,000 is where the more immediate battle is taking place.The lower boundary, near $64,085, is the previous month's point of control. This is the price at which the greatest amount of trading activity took place within that monthly profile. It can act like a magnet because the market previously found substantial agreement there.The upper boundary, near $65,050, is the previous month's value area high. This marks the upper edge of the zone where most of the previous month's volume was transacted.These are not magical prices. They matter because they represent areas where many traders and trading systems may reassess whether Bitcoin is still trading inside accepted value or is beginning to establish value somewhere new.What would make the Bitcoin chart more bullish?The first bullish tell would be a daily candle closing above $65,050. That would matter for two reasons.First, Bitcoin would be closing above the previous month's value area high, suggesting that buyers are trying to establish acceptance above an area that previously contained most trading activity.Second, the same move could push price beyond the upper boundary of the descending pitchfork shown on the chart. This is why I am watching the formation as a possible bull flag. However, it should not be treated as a confirmed bull flag before price actually breaks out and holds above it.If Bitcoin closes above $65,050, the next question is whether the following daily candle can remain above the range. Two consecutive closes would make the breakout more credible and bring the wider resistance area around $66,600-$67,300 back into focus.What this means: A breakout is more convincing when price does not merely spike above resistance, but closes above it and continues to defend the level afterward.What would make the Bitcoin chart more bearish?A daily close below $64,085 would be the first warning that the latest recovery is failing to hold the previous month's main high-volume price.That would not guarantee an immediate drop. Bitcoin could still reclaim the level quickly. But if the market records two consecutive daily closes below $64,085, the bearish case becomes more credible and attention may shift back toward lower parts of the broader range.The previous month's value area low near $62,380 would then become a more relevant downside reference. It should be treated as an area to monitor, not as a promised target, because Bitcoin can still react at intermediate support before reaching it.Why daily closes matter more than intraday moves hereBitcoin trades around the clock, and visible levels often attract brief stop-runs in both directions. Price can move above $65,050 or below $64,085 during the day and still finish the session back inside the range.That is why I am more interested in the daily close than in the first intraday break. One close outside the yellow zone would be the first directional tell. Two consecutive closes would provide significantly higher confidence that the market is accepting the breakout rather than producing another trap.This is a confirmation filter, not a certainty filter. A strong move can still reverse after two closes, while waiting for confirmation can also mean entering or reacting later. The advantage is that it asks the market to provide evidence before a trader forms a stronger directional view.Why this Bitcoin chart matters for the wider crypto marketBitcoin remains the main liquidity and sentiment reference for the crypto market. If it establishes value above $65,050, that could improve risk appetite across Ethereum and higher-beta altcoins. If it loses $64,085 and begins rotating lower, weaker crypto assets may come under greater pressure.Still, Bitcoin's breakout should not be treated as automatic confirmation for every token. Traders and investors should check whether the asset they follow is also breaking its own resistance, holding support and showing improving participation.This tighter range also builds on our earlier Bitcoin analysis explaining why reclaiming $64,000 was so important. Bitcoin has now returned to that area, but the daily chart shows that reclaiming a round number and establishing acceptance above the full $64,085-$65,050 band are not the same thing.What should crypto traders watch next?The critical question is simple: does Bitcoin produce a daily close above or below the yellow range?Above $65,050: The recovery strengthens, and the possible bull flag becomes more credible.Inside $64,085-$65,050: Bitcoin remains in a decision zone where chasing short-term moves carries a higher risk of whipsaw.Below $64,085: The recovery weakens, and lower support becomes more relevant.The wider grey range can wait. For the next directional clue in crypto, I am watching the smaller yellow range and, most importantly, where Bitcoin closes. This is a scenario map rather than a guarantee, so traders should use position sizes and risk limits appropriate to their own strategy.How to know if this Bitcoin analysis is still validThis analysis remains relevant while Bitcoin is trading near or reacting to the $64,085-$65,050 range. If price has already moved far beyond either boundary, the levels should be used to judge whether the breakout is holding or failing, not as a fresh reason to chase the move. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

RBA dep Gov Hauser says inflation is too high, monetary policy needs to bring it downChina eases limits on Nvidia H200 chips as AI race escalates, FT reportsTrump pauses 50% Canada tariffs for 'three day period'UAE-Iran trade halt more significant than US embargo, ex-official saysAustralia Q2 2026 Wage price Index +0.8% q/q (expected +0.8%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7854 (vs. estimate at 6.7421)Update: Oil extends gains to fourth day as Hormuz fighting drags onSouth Korea stock market halt called already as Kospi plungesJapan June Machine Orders +16.9% y/y (expected +10.8%)Canada, US race against midnight tariff deadline as talks continueFund managers pile into stocks, BofA finds. Fund manager bullishness near four-year highNew Zealand Q2 2026 producer price index risesIraq backs new oil export routes to bypass Hormuz Gulf bottleneckPreview: What to watch as July FOMC minutes drop WednesdayMizuho sees BOJ hiking rates faster as weak yen fuels inflation riskIran rejects UAE missile accusation, warns against unfounded claimsOil catch up - prices hit three-week high as Iran vows offensive stance, denies UAE missile claimOil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw and huge diesel drawUAE halts all trade and financial dealings with Iran, MoFA official saysTrump is weighing whether to grant Canada a tariff reprieve - PoliticoinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap: US data mixed as Iran headlines and Canada tariffs dominateSummary:UAE formally halted all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran; MoFA's Afra Al Hameli confirmed the move amid regional escalationsIran's foreign ministry rejected UAE accusations that it fired missiles at the country, calling the claims unfoundedFrance will expel two Iranian diplomats after French embassy staff in Tehran were detained and allegedly intimidated in JulyOil extended gains into a fourth session in Asia trade on continued Gulf supply uncertaintySouth Korea's KOSPI opened down 5%, widening to 6% and triggering a five-minute sidecar halt on program selling; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell around 7%Japan's Nikkei fell more than 3%, with Tokyo Electron down 4% and Kioxia down 9%; China also opened lowerRBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation remains too high and further rate hikes are possible if it doesn't ease, though he does not see a recession, only a slowdownJapan's core machinery orders jumped 9.7% month-on-month in June, well above forecasts and the fastest pace since February; annual orders rose 16.9%Australian wages grew 0.8% in the June quarter as expected, with the annual pace holding at 3.2%The US delayed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods by three days after talks in Washington; Carney says "substantial progress" madeBeijing is allowing small H200 chip shipments to Chinese tech firms, with ByteDance and Tencent each receiving around 10,000 units, per the FTJoint US-South Korea military drills are set to be cut by about half following a Trump order, South Korean media reportedAsian markets sold off sharply on Wednesday as escalating tension between the UAE and Iran, together with a fresh diplomatic rupture involving France, added to an already elevated risk backdrop across the region. the drop followed falls on Wall Street. The UAE has formally halted all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran, according to Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director of Strategic Communications Afra Al Hameli. The move follows the UAE's earlier allegation that Iran launched missiles against the country, an accusation Iran's foreign ministry has firmly rejected, describing the claims as unfounded and pointing to what it characterised as false flag operations attributed to the US and Israel. Analysts have separately described the trade suspension as a significant blow to Iran given the scale of Dubai's role in Iranian import markets and its function as a financial channel.France added a further layer to the diplomatic strain, announcing it will expel two Iranian diplomats in the coming days after two French embassy staff in Tehran were detained and allegedly intimidated in July.Against that backdrop, oil extended its gains into a fourth consecutive session in Asian trade, continuing a run driven by ongoing uncertainty over the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz.Equity markets bore the brunt of the risk-off move. South Korea's KOSPI index opened down 5%, with the decline widening to 6% within minutes, triggering the exchange's sidecar mechanism and suspending program-driven selling for five minutes. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell by around 7%. Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped more than 3%, with Tokyo Electron down 4% and Kioxia down 9%. Chinese equities also opened lower.On monetary policy, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reiterated that inflation remains too high and that monetary policy needs to continue reducing demand in the economy. He said further rate hikes remain possible if inflation fails to ease, while noting the Board is not forecasting a recession, only a slowdown, and flagged upside inflation risks as an ongoing concern.On data, Japan's core machinery orders, which exclude volatile items such as ships and electric utilities, jumped 9.7% month-on-month in June, reversing a 12.4% drop the prior month and beating forecasts for a 7.8% rise. It marked the third increase this year and the fastest pace since February, pointing to a broad-based recovery in business investment. On an annual basis, orders rose 16.9%, swinging from a 1.9% decline in May and topping estimates for a 10.8% gain, the fastest annual rise in four months. In Australia, wages grew 0.8% in the June quarter, matching expectations, with the annual pace holding at 3.2%.Elsewhere, the Trump administration agreed to delay planned 50% tariffs on Canadian goods by three days following high-stakes talks in Washington. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a brief statement that substantial progress had been made, though he added that important work remains. The Canadian dollar gained a few points on the news. Separately, Beijing is allowing small shipments of Nvidia's H200 chips to reach leading Chinese technology firms, with ByteDance and Tencent each receiving around 10,000 processors in recent weeks, according to the Financial Times, as China eases restrictions to help its companies compete in the AI race.On the security front, scheduled joint US and South Korean military drills are expected to be cut by roughly half, South Korean media reported Wednesday, following an order from President Trump to substantially reduce US participation in the annual exercises. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Gov Hauser:Inflation is too highMonetary policy needs to bring inflation down, needs to reduce demand in economyNot seeing recession, just slowdownWorried about inflation, upside risks to inflationIf inflation doesnt come down, will have to raise rates again---RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has reiterated that inflation remains too high and that monetary policy needs to keep reducing demand in the economy to bring it back toward target, warning that further rate hikes are still on the table if inflation fails to come down.Hauser said the Board is not forecasting a recession, characterising the current path as a slowdown rather than a sharper downturn, but flagged that upside risks to inflation remain a genuine concern. The comments extend a message he has delivered consistently through 2026: that the RBA's three rate hikes earlier this year, which took the cash rate to 4.35 percent, reflected a judgment that demand was outstripping the economy's supply capacity by more than initially expected, and that acting early limits the eventual cost to unemployment.The remarks land against a backdrop where the Board has now held rates steady for two consecutive meetings, with headline inflation running around 3.8 percent, still above the 2-3 percent target band, and trimmed mean measures proving sticky rather than falling cleanly. Governor Bullock has separately noted that current market pricing for near-term rate cuts runs ahead of the Board's own thinking, and Wednesday's wage data adds a further complication: private sector wage growth has continued to moderate to its slowest pace this cycle, but the Fair Work Commission's larger-than-expected 4.75 percent award wage increase lands in the third quarter and is expected to push wage growth back up.Layered on top of the domestic picture is the external inflation risk from elevated oil prices tied to the ongoing Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption, a factor Hauser and Bullock have both cited as complicating the RBA's task alongside already-excess domestic demand. Hauser's explicit warning that rates could rise again if inflation doesn't ease keeps the Board's tightening bias technically alive, signalling the current pause remains conditional rather than a shift toward an easing cycle.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A loosening of Beijing's own restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips, even at a small scale, signals that Chinese authorities are prioritising domestic AI competitiveness over previous concerns about reliance on US hardware, a shift that could be read as bullish for Nvidia's addressable market in China if it extends further. The fact that the bulk of an estimated large H200 stockpile is being kept in Hong Kong rather than moved onto the mainland, reportedly due to insufficient local capacity to support the chips, highlights the logistical and infrastructure constraints still shaping how China deploys advanced compute even when policy allows it. For Nvidia and the broader semiconductor supply chain, any signal of renewed Chinese demand access matters given how central China policy has been to swings in chip stocks this year. The move also sits against the backdrop of the US-China tech rivalry, where export controls and countermeasures on both sides continue to shape which chips can move where, and how quickly.--- China is loosening restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips to help its tech giants keep pace in the AI race, the FT reports.Summary:Beijing is permitting small shipments of Nvidia H200 processors to leading Chinese tech companies, according to the Financial TimesByteDance and Tencent have each received around 10,000 H200 chips in recent weeksThe move is aimed at helping Chinese tech groups catch up with US AI rivalsBeijing is directing companies to keep the majority of their H200 stock in Hong Kong, with total holdings estimated at around 500,000 unitsHong Kong reportedly lacks the capacity to support full deployment of that stockpile China is easing restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips as the country's leading technology groups push to close the gap with US rivals in the artificial intelligence race, according to the Financial Times.Beijing is now permitting small shipments of the advanced processors to reach top domestic tech firms, with ByteDance and Tencent each having received approximately 10,000 H200 units in recent weeks. The move marks a shift in approach from authorities who have previously restricted access to advanced US chips as part of a broader push toward technological self-sufficiency.Despite the relaxation, Beijing is instructing companies to keep the majority of their H200 holdings in Hong Kong rather than moving them onto the mainland. Total H200 stock held in this way is estimated at around 500,000 units, a substantial stockpile that nonetheless faces a practical constraint: Hong Kong reportedly lacks the data centre and computing infrastructure capacity needed to put that volume of chips to full use.The arrangement points to a policy that is easing in principle but still cautious in practice, allowing Chinese firms limited access to cutting-edge US hardware while keeping the bulk of that capacity offshore, at least for now. The gap between the scale of the stockpile and the infrastructure available to deploy it suggests any meaningful uplift to Chinese AI development from these chips may be gradual rather than immediate, contingent on further build-out of local capacity or a broader loosening of where the chips can be used.The development comes amid an intensifying competition between US and Chinese firms over access to and control of the most advanced AI chips, with export controls, stockpiling strategies and questions over deployment capacity all shaping how quickly either side can translate hardware access into AI capability gains. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump pauses the new tariffs that were due at midnight US Eastern time. Says has a tentative deal. USD/CAD dropped from around 1.3900 to around 1.3880. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Beginning at 12.45 pm Sydney time:0245 GMT / 2245 US Eastern time As background to Hauser today ...The RBA raised the cash rate three times in early 2026, taking it to 4.35 percent, after judging in February that demand was outstripping supply capacity by more than expected. It has since held at that level for two consecutive meetings, most recently on August 11, keeping a conditional pause rather than declaring victory.Inflation remains the sticking point. Headline CPI sits around 3.8 percent as of the June quarter, still above the 2-3 percent target band, and trimmed mean measures have been sticky rather than falling cleanly. Deputy Governor Hauser has repeatedly stressed the Board still has "work to do," describing price growth as far too high even as some relief has come through from softer fuel costs. He's leaned on Phillips curve logic to justify the early, front-loaded hikes, arguing that acting promptly when the economy sits on the steeper part of the curve limits the eventual unemployment cost.Two live complications sit alongside the domestic inflation fight. First, wages: Wednesday's WPI data showed private sector wage growth continuing to moderate to its slowest pace this cycle, at 3.2 percent annually, giving the Board some room, though the Fair Work Commission's larger-than-expected 4.75 percent award wage increase lands in Q3 and is expected to push WPI back up. Second, the external shock: Governor Bullock has flagged the Middle East conflict and its effect on oil prices as a genuine supply-side complication layered on top of already-excess domestic demand, a dynamic Hauser has echoed, noting a resolution and lower oil prices would be welcome but isn't assured.The Board's language has kept a tightening bias technically alive rather than shifting to neutral, and Bullock's August press conference reiterated that current pricing for near-term cuts is running ahead of the Board's own thinking. That leaves Hauser's remarks today as a chance to signal whether persistent Gulf-driven oil price pressure and the incoming award wage bump are enough to keep the door open to a further hike, or whether the Board is content to let the current settings work through the economy for now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kimmitt's comments reframe the UAE's trade suspension from a diplomatic statement into a potentially serious economic shock for Iran, given Dubai's outsized role as Iran's single largest source of imported goods and its long-standing function as a financial workaround for sanctions. If accurate, the description of the halt as more consequential than US sanctions raises the stakes on how Iran might respond, with Kimmitt's own comparison to a full embargo carrying echoes of pre-conflict escalation dynamics. Markets will be watching whether other Gulf states adopt a similar wait-and-see posture Kimmitt describes, since any broader Gulf alignment against Iran would meaningfully tighten the economic pressure campaign and could feed further into the region's already elevated risk premium. For now, the framing adds weight to the view that Gulf capitals may be moving from rhetorical distancing toward substantive economic measures against Tehran.---Earlier:UAE halts all trade and financial dealings with Iran, MoFA official saysIran rejects UAE missile accusation, warns against unfounded claims A former US official says the UAE's trade halt with Iran could hit harder than Washington's own sanctions regime. Al Jazeera had the info. Summary:Retired general and former US assistant secretary of state Mark Kimmitt told Al Jazeera the UAE's trade suspension with Iran could be more significant than US sanctionsHe said the UAE is currently Iran's largest source of imported goods, ahead of China and Turkiye, accounting for around a third of Iran's annual importsKimmitt said Dubai's role as a financial hub has also long provided Iran with a channel to circumvent sanctionsHe said the UAE's move could in some ways be more significant than the US embargoKimmitt expects other Gulf states to take a wait-and-see approach for now rather than immediately following the UAE's leadHe compared the scale of the move to the US embargo on Japan after World War II, suggesting Iran could interpret it as approaching an act of war The United Arab Emirates' suspension of trade with Iran could prove more consequential than existing US sanctions, according to retired general and former US assistant secretary of state Mark Kimmitt, who pointed to Dubai's outsized role in Iran's economy as the key factor.Speaking to Al Jazeera, Kimmitt said the scale of financial and goods trade between Dubai and Iran is difficult to overstate. He said the UAE is currently the largest source of imported goods into Iran, ahead of both China and Turkiye, with around a third of Iran's total annual imports coming from the UAE alone.Kimmitt also pointed to Dubai's long-standing function as a regional financial hub, noting it has historically given Iran a channel through which to work around international sanctions. Given that role, he said the UAE's suspension of trade could in some respects carry more weight than the embargo imposed by the United States.Asked whether other Gulf states might follow the UAE's example if Iranian attacks continue, Kimmitt said he expects a cautious, wait-and-see approach for now rather than an immediate coordinated response. He said the significance of the UAE's move is such that Iran could interpret it as edging toward an act of war, drawing a comparison to the United States' full embargo of Japan following World War II.The comments add a new dimension to the UAE's economic response this week, framing it less as a diplomatic gesture tied to recent missile allegations and more as a potentially serious structural blow to Iran's trade and financial access. Whether other Gulf states ultimately follow suit is likely to depend heavily on how the standoff between the UAE and Iran develops in the coming days, particularly given Kimmitt's warning about how Tehran itself may read the move. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia Wage Price Index Q2 2026 3.2% y/yexpected 3.2%, prior 3.3%0.8% q/qexpected 0.8%, prior 0.8% Some background here at the preview.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.7-day reverse repurchase operation volume zero againPBoC conducted 327.4 billion yuan of overnight reverse repurchase operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The fourth consecutive day of gains reflects a market still pricing genuine uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually navigable, rather than reacting to any single fresh escalation. The direct contradiction between Washington's insistence the strait is open and Tehran's assertion that it remains closed leaves shippers and insurers with little to act on, which tends to keep a risk premium embedded in price even without new strikes. Iraq's move to diversify export routes away from Gulf shipping, and further reports of Chinese shipping majors avoiding Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb entirely, both point to the physical market adjusting around the uncertainty rather than waiting for it to resolve. With the temporary ceasefire having lapsed and no clear diplomatic path forward, prices look supported near recent highs until either side offers something more concrete than rhetoric.--- Oil rose for a fourth straight session as Washington and Tehran continue to give conflicting accounts of whether Hormuz is actually open.Summary:Brent and WTI both edged higher in early Asia trade on Wednesday, extending a run of gains to a fourth straight sessionBoth contracts closed Tuesday at their highest levels since July 24, with peace hopes between the US and Iran fadingTrump said no talks were taking place with Iran and insisted the Strait of Hormuz remains open, directly contradicting Iran's position that the waterway is shutA temporary ceasefire agreement expired Monday, with a senior Iranian official pointing to a more hardline shift amid the diplomatic stalemate, though no fresh strikes were reported TuesdayIraq's cabinet approved a three-month mechanism, starting September 1, to export crude via international and local firms and multiple outlets, partly to avoid the straitTwo major Chinese shipping firms have stopped sending tankers through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb altogether, instead collecting cargoes from outside the Gulf Oil prices ticked higher in early Asia trade on Wednesday, extending gains into a fourth straight session as investors continued to weigh conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran over whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping.Brent crude edged up to around $91 a barrel, while US WTI crude rose to around $85, both building modestly on Tuesday's close, when the contracts settled at their highest levels since July 24 as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal continued to fade.President Trump said on Tuesday that no talks were taking place with Iran and reiterated his position that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, a claim directly at odds with Iran's own assertion that the critical waterway is shut to shipping. The dispute leaves the market with no clear read on the physical state of transit through the strait, which continues to underpin the price support seen over recent sessions.A temporary ceasefire agreement between the two countries expired on Monday, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters the country was shifting toward a more hardline posture given the ongoing diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday. The absence of new attacks has not been enough to ease pricing, given the standoff over the strait's actual operational status remains unresolved.Against that backdrop, physical market participants are increasingly acting to route around the uncertainty rather than wait for clarity. Iraq's cabinet approved a new mechanism allowing crude exports through specialised international and local companies via multiple outlets, with contracts running for three months from September 1. The move is aimed in part at reducing Iraq's exposure to the strait, given the country's heavy reliance on southern Gulf export terminals.Separately, Reuters reports that two major Chinese shipping companies have stopped sending oil tankers through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait entirely amid the conflict, according to industry executives, tanker trackers and a ship broker, instead collecting cargoes from locations outside the Gulf altogether. Combined with Iraq's export diversification, the moves point to a market that is beginning to structurally adjust its shipping patterns around the risk, rather than treating the disruption as a short-term event likely to resolve quickly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Asian equites are opening weaker following the continued fall on Wall Street and the ongoing stalemate over Hormuz.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Machinery Orders (YoY) (June 2026) +16.9%, fastest rise in four months.expected +10.8%, prior -1.9%Machinery Orders (MoM) +9.7% m/m, best jump since February this yearexpected +7.8%, prior -12.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A breakdown in talks and the imposition of new 50% tariffs would hit sectors including lumber, wine, dairy and autos, with knock-on risk to broader USMCA negotiations that have underpinned North American trade stability for years. The auto sector is the clearest pressure point, given industry warnings that even a reduced 15% tariff would be unsustainable against average profit margins of just 6% under prior duty-free trade, and that roughly half the value of a Canadian-built vehicle originates in the US, meaning tariffs would also hurt American manufacturers. Currency and equity markets with exposure to Canadian exporters, particularly in materials, agriculture and autos, are likely to stay sensitive to headlines out of Washington through the deadline. A resolution incorporating the discussed auto tariff cut would be read as a relief signal for North American supply chains, while a lapse into the new tariffs raises the risk of retaliatory measures and a longer disruption to trade flows.--- Canada and the US are racing to strike a deal on autos and tariffs before new 50% duties hit at midnight, Reuters reports. Summary:Carney and Trump spoke by phone on Tuesday for the second time this week, with no clarity offered on the state of negotiationsNew US tariffs covering about $20 billion of Canadian imports are due to take effect from midnight, applying regardless of USMCA preferential treatmentUS and Canadian officials have discussed cutting Section 232 tariffs on Canadian vehicles to 15% from 25%, with further reductions tied to US content levelsA Canadian auto industry official said even a 15% tariff would be unaffordable given thin historical profit margins, and that tariffs would also hurt US manufacturers given the shared supply chainA key sticking point is how tariff deductions are calculated, with Washington wanting only US-produced content counted and Canada pushing for all North American content to qualifyCanadian officials have been in Washington since last week, including a near two-hour meeting Monday with USTR Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, while a Canadian government source said all options remain on the table, including a possible suspension of trade talks Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump spoke again on Tuesday afternoon, the second call between the two leaders this week, as Canada works to secure a last-minute deal to avoid new 50% tariffs from taking effect at midnight. Neither side offered clarity on the state of talks following weeks of intense negotiations.The new US tariffs would cover roughly $20 billion worth of imports and would apply regardless of whether Canadian goods qualify for preferential treatment under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, an agreement that has shielded much of Canadian industry from earlier rounds of US tariffs. Carney's office confirmed only that the two leaders spoke about the ongoing negotiations, without elaborating further, while the White House and the Office of the US Trade Representative did not respond to requests for comment.Industry officials and trade experts warned the new tariffs could trigger job losses and business closures in vulnerable sectors including lumber, wine and dairy, while complicating broader USMCA talks. Candace Laing, CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said billions of dollars in goods previously unaffected are now at risk, adding that businesses have spent more than a year holding back on hiring and investment as the uncertainty dragged on.Existing US auto tariffs have emerged as a central sticking point. Two industry sources said the two sides have discussed reducing US Section 232 tariffs on Canadian vehicles to 15% from 25%, with the possibility of further cuts tied to the amount of US content in each vehicle. It remained unclear on Tuesday whether an agreement incorporating those auto tariff changes could be finalised before the deadline.A Canadian auto industry official said the numbers still would not work even at a reduced rate, noting that under duty-free North American trade prior to the 25% tariffs, industry profit margins averaged only 6%, making a 15% tariff still too costly to absorb. The official added that roughly half the value of every Canadian-built vehicle originates in the United States, meaning tariffs aimed at hurting Canadian manufacturing would inevitably damage US producers as well.A major unresolved question is how tariff deductions based on vehicle content should be calculated. Washington has pushed for only US-produced content to count toward deductions, while Canada is arguing that all North American content, including Canadian and Mexican-made parts, should qualify. Separately, the US Commerce Department issued new rules on Tuesday requiring automakers exporting from Canada and Mexico to certify their US content levels annually rather than twice a year, though manufacturers must still recertify vehicles' American content by September 30 to claim deductions under the new cycle beginning December 1.Canada's minister responsible for US trade, Dominic LeBlanc, and chief trade negotiator Janice Charette have been in Washington since last week, meeting Monday for nearly two hours with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Greer has repeatedly pointed to Canada's retaliatory tariffs, some provinces' refusal to stock US liquor, and Canada's dairy supply management system as ongoing US grievances. A Canadian government source said last week that all options remain on the table should the new tariffs take effect, including support for affected domestic industries and a possible suspension of bilateral trade talks, though the source expressed hope that Washington remained keen to reach a deal. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of bullishness in BofA's August survey points to a market where positioning, rather than valuation or macro risk, may become the more relevant vulnerability in the near term. With cash levels this low and equity allocation at a five-year high, the room for fresh buying power to push markets further is limited, leaving positioning stretched into any negative surprise on growth, inflation or Fed policy. The sharp drop in the share of managers worried about a crowded semiconductor trade, down from over 80 percent to close to half in a month, suggests some rotation has already occurred within tech rather than a wholesale reduction in risk appetite. Contrarian signals embedded in the survey, including gold's status as most undervalued since early 2023 and bonds as a crowded underweight, point to where sentiment could reverse first if the current consensus view on growth and rates proves wrong.---I bolded that line on gold above, just be aware of this:China's Securities Daily warns against chasing gold at current highs--- Fund managers have rarely been this bullish, with cash levels near record lows and almost no one positioning for a Fed hike or an economic slowdown.Summary:BofA's August Global Fund Manager Survey recorded its third most bullish reading since 2022, based on responses from around 180 managers overseeing more than half a trillion dollarsCash levels fell to 3.5 percent of assets under management, among the lowest readings in the survey's history since 1998, triggering BofA's contrarian "sell" signalGlobal equity allocation rose to a net 56 percent overweight, the highest since November 2021, marking 14 consecutive months of overweight positioningA record 56 percent of respondents expect no economic slowdown, and 43 percent forecast a "boom" outcome, the most since February 2022Roughly 72 percent of managers do not expect the Fed to hike rates before the November midterms, and just under a third expect a hawkish tone from Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson HoleLong semiconductors remains the most crowded trade but has eased sharply from a month earlier, while gold is now seen as the most undervalued asset since March 2023 Fund managers have rarely been as bullish as they are right now, according to Bank of America's latest Global Fund Manager Survey, which recorded its third most optimistic reading since 2022 even as cash levels sank toward historic lows.The August survey, covering around 180 managers responsible for more than half a trillion dollars in assets, showed cash allocations falling to 3.5 percent, among the lowest levels recorded since the survey began tracking the metric in 1998. That decline is enough to trigger BofA's contrarian Cash Rule, which flashes a sell signal whenever cash drops to or below 4 percent of assets under management. At the same time, global equity allocation climbed to a net 56 percent overweight, the highest level since November 2021 and the fourteenth consecutive month that managers have held an overweight equity position.Underpinning the optimism is a striking degree of confidence in the economic outlook. A record 56 percent of respondents said they expect no slowdown or landing at all, while 43 percent forecast an outright economic boom, the highest share since February 2022. BofA's strategists, led by chief equity strategist Michael Hartnett, characterised the prevailing view as one where investors see little risk from growth, Federal Reserve policy, artificial intelligence spending or the political calendar, with the survey noting that positioning currently favours rotating within risk assets rather than adding fresh exposure.On monetary policy, nearly three quarters of respondents do not expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to raise interest rates before the November midterm elections, and only around a third expect a hawkish tone from him at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, with most anticipating a neutral message instead. Opinion was more divided on the market impact of a clean Democratic sweep in the midterms, though a narrow majority still expect equities to fall in that scenario.Positioning data showed managers rotating into technology, banks and energy during August, while pulling back from industrials and healthcare. Long semiconductors remains the survey's most crowded trade, but the share of managers flagging it as such fell sharply from the prior month. Concerns about an AI bubble persist as the most cited tail risk, and hyperscaler capital spending was named as the most likely source of a systemic credit event, even though most managers do not expect any hyperscaler to cut spending this year.The survey's contrarian trade ideas for August include going long bonds and short commodities, favouring consumer staples over technology, and buying UK equities against US ones, all positions that would run directly counter to where the bulk of the market is currently positioned. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand producer prices rose in the second quarter 2026: Input prices +2.9%prior +1.4%Output prices +1.6%, fastest since Q1 2025prior +0.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iraq's move underscores how deeply the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping export strategy across OPEC's Gulf-dependent producers, even for a country whose exports flow mainly from southern terminals rather than through the strait directly. As OPEC's second-largest producer, any disruption or shift in Iraqi export flows carries weight for global supply balances, and the push toward Turkish and Syrian routes signals a longer-term strategic pivot away from reliance on Gulf shipping rather than a temporary workaround. Traders will watch for details on volumes and outlets once available, since a meaningful diversion of crude away from southern terminals could ease some of the market's concentration risk around Hormuz, even as the overall regional supply picture remains constrained. The lack of detail on companies and volumes leaves the near-term price impact limited for now, with the story functioning more as a signal of intent than an immediate supply catalyst.---Gulf news earleir:Iran rejects UAE missile accusation, warns against unfounded claimsOil catch up - prices hit three-week high as Iran vows offensive stance, denies UAE missile claimUAE halts all trade and financial dealings with Iran, MoFA official says--- Iraq is opening its crude exports to outside firms and alternative routes as the Hormuz closure exposes its heavy reliance on southern Gulf terminals.Summary:Iraq's cabinet approved mechanisms allowing crude exports through specialised international and local companies via multiple outletsContracts under the new mechanism run for three months starting September 1The move is aimed at diversifying export channels and maintaining marketing flexibility amid the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closureIraq has been developing alternative routes, including through Turkey and Syria, to reduce reliance on Gulf shippingIraq is OPEC's second-largest oil producer and depends heavily on crude exports for state revenue, with most exports shipped from southern Gulf terminalsThe government has not yet detailed which companies will be selected, export volumes, or the specific outlets covered Iraq's cabinet has approved a new mechanism allowing crude exports through specialised international and local companies across multiple outlets, as OPEC's second-largest producer moves to diversify its shipping options amid the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Contracts issued under the new framework will run for three months starting September 1, according to a government statement issued after Tuesday's cabinet meeting. The mechanism is intended to give Baghdad greater flexibility in marketing its crude at a time when the Iran war and the closure of the strait have disrupted regional oil flows and introduced significant uncertainty around shipping routes.Iraq has been working for some time to build out alternative export corridors beyond its traditional southern terminals, including routes through Turkey and Syria, as it looks to reduce its dependence on Gulf shipping lanes. That effort takes on added urgency given how exposed the country is to any disruption in the strait. Most of Iraq's crude exports are shipped from terminals in the southern Gulf, and as OPEC's second-largest producer, the country relies heavily on those exports for state revenue, leaving it particularly vulnerable to the kind of shipping bottlenecks the Hormuz closure has created.The cabinet's approval of outside companies to help manage exports marks a shift from Iraq's traditional reliance on its own state marketing channels, suggesting Baghdad sees value in bringing in specialised international expertise to navigate the current environment. The government has not yet released details on which companies will be selected, what volumes will move under the new contracts, or precisely which export outlets will be used, leaving key questions about the scale and impact of the mechanism unanswered for now.The move fits into a broader pattern across the region of oil-dependent economies seeking workarounds to the Hormuz disruption, from covert shipments and ship-to-ship transfers to entirely new overland and alternative maritime routes. For Iraq, whose economic stability is closely tied to steady crude revenue, establishing credible alternative channels is likely to remain a priority for as long as uncertainty over the strait persists. ---The image above is a representation of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline. There are proposals for another line, Iraq-Syria: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The minutes carry more weight than usual this cycle because Chair Warsh's July statement was deliberately brief and offered little forward guidance, leaving markets largely in the dark on how the committee is thinking beyond the three known dissents. A hawkish tone, particularly explicit discussion of inflation risk from energy prices, could extend the recent push in Treasury yields and firm the dollar. A softer or more balanced tone risks being read two ways given how much weaker growth data has looked since the meeting, so the market reaction may hinge less on the headline tone and more on whether the Fed's June and July thinking still holds up against July's payrolls and retail sales misses. Desks will be watching specifically for any reference to the Strait of Hormuz or Middle East energy disruption as an inflation risk, since that would tie the minutes directly to the ongoing Gulf story.---My preview of the following event, Jackson Hole:Jackson Hole hype outruns Warsh playbook of saying as little as possible--- Wednesday's FOMC minutes should reveal how united the Fed's hawks really are behind a deliberately bare July statement.Summary:Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting are scheduled for release Wednesday at 2pm ET, three weeks after the decision as per standard practiceThe Fed held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a fifth straight meeting, with three members dissenting in favour of a hikeChair Warsh's statement was kept short and offered minimal forward guidance, so the minutes are the first real insight into the depth of the hawkish campPre-meeting positioning suggested some officials view current rates as insufficiently restrictive, while others were seen as leaning toward a hike if inflation failed to improve, without yet feeling urgencyGrowth data released since the meeting has included negative July payrolls, weaker retail sales and softer consumer sentimentMarkets are pricing a high probability of a September rate hike, so the minutes are being read more for tone and committee unity than for the July decision itself Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 policy meeting are due for release Wednesday at 2pm ET, and traders across rates, FX and energy markets will be parsing them closely for clues the central bank's public statement deliberately withheld.The Fed held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a fifth consecutive meeting, but three voting members dissented in favour of a hike, a notable split for a committee under a chair who has pledged to offer less forward guidance than his predecessors. Warsh's post-meeting statement was kept short, giving markets little sense of how the broader committee is weighing the inflation outlook beyond the known dissents. That brevity is precisely why the minutes matter more this cycle than in a typical meeting.Ahead of the decision, some Fed watchers had flagged a widening gap between an increasingly vocal hawkish minority, who argue current policy is not restrictive enough, and a larger bloc of officials who were seen as more patient but willing to shift toward tightening if inflation failed to show clearer signs of improvement. The minutes should show whether that middle group's language has hardened since June, and how explicitly officials discussed the risk that elevated oil prices, tied to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East tensions, could feed through into broader inflation.Complicating the picture is the amount of economic data that has emerged since the meeting took place. July payrolls came in negative, the labour force contracted, retail sales fell 0.6 percent and preliminary consumer sentiment readings dropped sharply. None of that was available to the committee when it met, of course, meaning the minutes will reflect a snapshot of Fed thinking that may already look somewhat dated against the current growth picture, even if the inflation risks it discusses remain very much live.Market pricing currently points to a high probability of a hike at the Fed's September meeting, so the immediate reaction to Wednesday's minutes is likely to hinge less on whether officials would have preferred to move in July and more on how united and urgent the committee sounds heading into the next decision. A hawkish tone would likely extend the recent rise in Treasury yields and support the dollar, while a more measured or divided tone could offer some relief to rate-sensitive equity sectors that have been under pressure from the recent run-up in borrowing costs.Federal Reserve Chair Warsh   This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.