Trump’s critical mineral reserve plan aims to build an “industrial buffer stock” model, using Exim-linked financing plus private capital to reduce supply-chain shock risk.Summary:Donald Trump announced a US “critical mineral reserve” initiative, aimed at securing supplies for domestic industry. The plan is framed as a strategic stockpile (often reported as “Project Vault”) to reduce exposure to supply shocks and China-linked bottlenecks. Funding cited includes $10bn in financing via the Export-Import Bank of the United States plus around $2bn from private capital. Structure points to an “oil-reserve style” buffer for critical inputs (rare earths and other key minerals), potentially targeting ~60 days of coverage in reporting.Donald Trump announced the creation of a US critical mineral reserve designed to support American industry and reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions in strategic raw materials. The initiative is being positioned as an industrial backstop, conceptually similar to an emergency reserve, intended to cushion manufacturers from sudden shortages, export controls, or sharp price swings in minerals central to advanced manufacturing, defence supply chains and the clean-energy transition. Funding details cited in reporting point to a roughly $12bn package, anchored by $10bn of financing linked to the Export-Import Bank of the United States, alongside about $2bn in private-sector capital. The involvement of private capital suggests the project is being structured to operate with commercial-style procurement and storage disciplines rather than as a purely government-run stockpile. The announcement also carried a strong “real economy” signal: General Motors CEO Mary Barra was referenced as being present/associated with the launch, underscoring that automakers and industrial end-users are a central constituency for the plan. The reserve concept is aimed at inputs tied to EV supply chains, electronics and defence applications—areas where policymakers argue the US has become too exposed to concentrated overseas processing capacity. Strategically, the move is widely framed as a response to China’s dominant position in parts of the critical minerals supply chain and its demonstrated ability to tighten access via export restrictions. For markets, the key question is execution: the effectiveness of any reserve will depend on what minerals are prioritised, how quickly inventories can be built, and whether parallel investment in domestic processing capacity keeps pace. As an aside, a very niche aside, if you are in Australia and you like Ford Barra engines, no relation... This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia could be the first major global central bank to hike rates in this cycle.We are set to get a decision on the cash rate at 10:30 pm ET and the consensus is for a 25 basis point hike to 3.85%. It's far from a sure thing as economists only shifted their calls over the past couple weeks as inflation and jobs data beat estimates. The market remains uncertain with about a 75% chance of a hike priced in.Of the 31 economists in the Reuters survey, 24 expected a hike and 7 are forecasting no change. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among those forecasting the RBA holds rates but -- notably -- all of the big Australia banks are calling for a hike.The Australian economy has proven resilient as house prices have firmed even with high interest rates. Back in the post-covid period, the RBA was forced into an embarassing backtrack after pledging to hold rates for the long term. Instead, they were among the first to hike rates in May 2022 and ultimately hiked from 0.10% to 4.35%. As economic conditions softened and inflation stabilized, they cut rates in February 2025 in what initially looked like the start of an extended period of rate cuts. Instead, the final cut came in August and now the central bank may be quickly pivoting back to hiking.The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at its last meeting, marking a third consecutive pause in a unanimous decision. While the statement itself was largely neutral and reiterated a data-dependent stance but Governor Bullock was surprisingly hawkish in the press conference. Since then, the market has tip-toed towards a rate hike.But the tipping point came after the jobs report saw unemployment fall to 4.1% from 4.4% IN December as 65.2K jobs were added. December CPI also ran above expectations.Aside from a hike there will be a focus on guidance. The economists' consensus is still that this will be a one-and-done hike for the year but that's rarely the way central banks operate and some firms -- like NAB -- see 4.10% by year end. The RBA will give us its own forecasts via the Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and Bullock will further qualify at 11:30 pm ET.For the Australian dollar, expect a good sized move on the headline, as much as 50 pips in either direction. I increasingly like the Australian dollar backdrop as global growth picks up and metals prices boom. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We are into the swan song phase of Bostic's term as Atlanta Fed President as he will retire on February 28 so I wouldn't put too much weight on these comments:Not through with inflation from tariffsIt's a huge undertaking for Warsh, I wish him the best. He's got a tall taskTo have policy go in a direction you want, have to build trust with committee, show wisdom, guidanceFed chair job is a very large jobBy midyear, will have reached an equilibrium with economyNo one is projecting worsening of labor marketOutlook for 1H of 2026 is for strong economic performance, inflation to stay high and a source of concernUS economy looks resilient even before accounting for tax bill breaks, deregulationI didn't project any rate cuts in 2026One or two cuts would put us a neutralIt's always safer to go out as a hawk because if inflation takes off, you look prescient. If inflation falls, you can always say that you would have hiked later. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Time to revise the US economic calendar as the The Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t release the January jobs report as scheduled on Friday because of the government shutdown.Politicians say they will vote to end the shutdown on Tuesday so the market isn't too fussed but this is annoying.Tuesday's JOLTS report has also been postponed.No other country does this nonsense and it's not conductive to smooth capital markets. For a country that talks about de-regulation and making it easier for business' to work, this is yet-another black eye. Putting together economic data is a trivial cost in the grand scheme of things and blowing up the NFP report in the autumn wrecks statistical continuity. Worse yet, Trump fired the head of the BLS and that raises some major questions about bias, either explicit or subconscious.The Fed is at a tough juncture where it's trying to make some difficult judgments about growth, employment and inflation. Now it's flying blind once again.In all likelihood this will be a short shutdown but this happens time after time and creates uncertainty everywhere. It's an unwelcome dynamic, that's at the very least a headache.That this happens on Groundhog Day is a beautiful dose of irony, as it keeps happening over and over. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump writes on Truth Social that he's reducing tariffs on India, which should be another positive for risk appetite:Tariffs lowered to 18% from 25%India to halt Russian oil imports in favor of US and potentially Venezuelan supplies to reduce conflict funding.India to "move forward" to reduce their tariffs and non tariff barriers against the United States, to zeroTake all these promises with a bit of a grain of salt, as Trump sometimes puts words into other leaders' mouths, especially regarding removing non-tariff barriers. It was an Honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and, a Powerful and Respected Leader of his Country. We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week! Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%. They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO. The Prime Minister also committed to “BUY AMERICAN,” at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products. Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that GET THINGS DONE, something that cannot be said for most. Thank you for your attention to this matter! This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A snapshot of the closing levels:STOXX 600 +1.0%German DAX +1.0%Frances CAC +0.8%UK FTSE 100 +1.1%Spain's IBEX +1.3%Italy's FTSE MIB +1.1%There as a nice turnaround in European stocks today, which traded in lockstep with the improvement in US futures and equity markets. The early poor mood carried over from Friday but slowly turned.In the end, the STOXX 600 closed at the best levels of the day and a record high.The STOXX is up 33% since the bottom last April and has been accelerating since the turn of the year. I get the sense that European assets are returning home as governments in the core switch to higher deficit spending. Some of that could also be money fleeing the US as the dollar has substantially underperformed in this same period. Finally, US tech has been a driving force behind US outperformance but there is growing unease about the AI trade and lofty valuations. There's a good argument that AI productivity improvements will have a larger impact in the real economy and that could lead to a re-rate in European stocks, which also have a certain amount of embedded government protection in many industries, along with minimal risk of disruption due to a lack of startups. At the end of the day though, this is mostly about valuations and starting points. Europe is cheaper than the US, by a lot. That's happened because of serially disappointing European growth and ineffective governance. Lately, there is a renewal of pragmatism over idealism in European governing, led by Germany, and that's a better formula for business.Eyes will be on how European growth develops from here. The European car industry remains under an existential threat from Chinese autos and that's going to be a painful issue to navigate. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I highlighted the opportunity in the beaten-up US manufacturing economy earlier today and a pair of reports today underscored the green shoots in an area that's been in recession for years.First, the S&P Global look at US manufacturing was revised in the final report, then the ISM manufacturing survey rose at its fastest pace since 2020 on a jump in new orders. The FX and bond markets have noticed. US 2-year yields are up 4.1 bps to 3.57% while the US dollar is higher across the board. The euro has slipped through 1.18 after rising above 1.20 last week, and briefly spiking to 1.2080. Now that those stops have been taken out, it's been a steady decline back to the lowest since Jan 23.It's not just the euro as the USD strength is broad based. In percentage terms, the 1% climb in USD/CHF is the largest move. Last week, the US Treasury once again refrained from naming any currency manipulators in its semi-annual report, and that includes the Swiss franc. When you zoom out, the pair looks like it's retesting the bottom of the six-month range that gave way last month.Overall, it's a big week for the US dollar and manufacturing is a small part. We get non-farm payrolls and Friday and, more importantly, we could get the first comments from Kevin Warsh now that he's nominated for Fed chair. Every word will be carefully parsed and it's easy for new Fed chairmen to inadvertently send the wrong message.In addition, Powell indicated that Fed officials were seeing better things in the US economy. If that's a widely-shared view, we could soon be seeing a hawkish shift. Right now the market is still pricing in 48 bps in easing this year but a few more reports like the one today and that disappear.I think we're headed in that direction and I think the cleanest way to trade that would be in bonds, where I think we will see a 4% print on 2s this year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 47.9Prices paid 59.0 vs 59.0 expected (58.5 prior)Employment 48.1 vs 44.9 priorProduction 55.9 vs 50.7 priorNew orders 57.1 vs 47.7 prior (revised to 47.4)Look at that jump in new orders, which is the biggest jump in a month since 2020. That's also the best reading since 2022.Comments in the report don't contain any of the optimism that we see in the headlines.“ ‘Hope’ has been word of the year in the Transportation Equipment industry. Unfortunately, all the hope in the world has not materialized into order activity in 2025 or the first half of 2026. Across the board, buyers continue to stand on the sidelines. As we enter 2026, every conversation revolves around hope that the second half of 2026 starts the turnaround. It’s hard to set strategy on hope, but thanks to the uncertainty brought about by this administration, here we are.” [Transportation Equipment]“Although our volume is low at the moment, the impact on the latest tariff threats on the European Union will have a huge negative impact on our profit for current quoted orders. We will not be able to recover the increase tariffs in our current quotations.” [Machinery]“Continuing softness in the market, with December orders below average and buyers reluctant to spend despite beneficial tax policies in the U.S. Geopolitical tensions are fueling ‘anti-American’ buyer sentiment, and sales are being lost.” [Machinery]“Another round of emotionally charged tariffs seems imminent, changing the landscape once more. Movement of custom product out of China continues, but the progress is slow with new qualifications required for transitioned materials and assemblies.” [Computer & Electronic Products]“Business conditions remain uncertain. Customers are cautious. Broad-based inflation continues. The Supreme Court tariff decision looms.” [Computer & Electronic Products]“Growing construction markets, data centers and energy projects, are straining the contract labor availability. The trade tariff uncertainty is creating volatility in the supply chain.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]“A new year, with new challenges. We are moving manufacturing from China to Mexico — which will now impose tariffs on parts made in China. This push for more of a Mexican supply chain and creates some short-term supply management concerns.” [Chemical Products]“Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless. Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days.” [Fabricated Metal Products]“Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]“Business trends moving into 2026 feature many of the headwinds from the third and fourth quarters of 2025. While the ‘plane’ has steadied, there continues to be uncertainty and added costs through our global operations. Tariff impacts on our financial performance last year cannot be overstated, as we had a much smaller EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) than previous years. While other inflationary pressures continue to hit the business, tariffs and product costs played a large role. This year, we will continue our multi-country sourcing approach to manufacture and import product from more tariff-friendly countries outside of China. But as we know, nothing is guaranteed with the current administration. We have trimmed costs everywhere inside the business, including on labor and conferences, and reduced our revenue forecast to a much more achievable mark. We’re prepared to battle throughout the year for higher profitability.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products] This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Today's stock market exhibits a mix of excitement and trepidation as major movers and sectors paint a varied picture. While certain stocks encounter challenges, others revel in unexpected gains, crafting an intriguing trading landscape.? Auto Manufacturer Impact: Tesla Takes a DiveA significant focal point is the 2.95% dive seen in Tesla (TSLA). The auto sector's woes ripple across, suggesting investor apprehension possibly tied to broader market rumors or recent reports affecting major manufacturers.? Technology & Software Resilience: Spotlight on OracleBuoying the tech sector, Oracle (ORCL) emerges as a beacon with a 3.67% rise, showcasing strong stability. This upward move suggests investor confidence possibly boosted by robust earnings or strategic corporate developments.? Healthcare in the Green: Consistent GainsWith Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) up by 1.05% and Eli Lilly (LLY) gaining 0.52%, the healthcare sector displays fortified performance, perhaps driven by innovation news or positive regulatory approvals, appealing to risk-averse investors.? Financials in Flux: Mixed ReactionsVisa (V) jumps by 2.11%, illustrating optimism within credit services.JPMorgan Chase (JPM) observes a 0.83% decline, amid a cautious outlook in diversified banks.This divergence indicates varied investor sentiment towards financial giants.? Market Mood and TrendsCurrent trading reveals a landscape filled with contrasts. Tech and software show potential resilience, spotlighted by Oracle's ascent, offering hope amid otherwise poor tech sector performance led by Nvidia (NVDA)'s 1.87% drop. The overall market sentiment hesitates in the face of specific sector weaknesses, augmented by underperformance in critical areas like semiconductors and energy.? Strategic RecommendationsConsidering today's dynamics, investors might explore diversification to mitigate risk from unstable sectors. Favoring stocks within thriving healthcare or stable tech firms like Oracle could offer balanced growth opportunities. As fluctuations prevail, maintaining a diverse portfolio ensures adaptability, and checking real-time data on InvestingLive.com empowers informed decisions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Best reading since May 2022Prelim was 51.9Prior was 51.8Exports remained a source of demand weakness,The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour and is expected to tick up to 48.5 from 47.9.Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “News of the joint largest rise in factory production since May 2022 is tainted by reports of ongoing subdued sales growth. Production growth consequently significantly outpaced that of new orders at the start of the year, resulting in a further accumulation of unsold warehouse inventory. “Over the past three months, the survey indicates that factories have typically produced more goods than they have sold to a degree we have not previously seen since the global financial crisis back in early 2009. This highly unusual situation is clearly unsustainable, hinting at risks of a production slowdown and a potential knock-on effect on employment, unless demand improves markedly in the coming months. “Sluggish sales and order book growth are being commonly linked to customer resistance to high prices, in turn often blamed on tariffs, as well as increased uncertainty over the economic outlook. While just below trend, business growth expectations for the year ahead are, however, holding up as firms anticipate improving demand, thanks in part to lower interest rates, reduced import competition due to tariffs, and more government support. However, political uncertainty remains a key drag on business sentiment.”The bolded part is a strange one but you can take it as positive or negative.Earlier, the Canadian PMI for January rose to 50.4 from 48.6.Commenting on the Canadian survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Following a challenging 2025, PMI data suggested that Canada’s manufacturing sector started the new year on a more positive footing. Output stabilised, after nearly a full year of continuous contraction, whilst confidence in the outlook improved and marginal jobs growth was recorded for the first time in 12 months."USD/CAD is up 38 pips to 1.3650 today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Silver experienced its worst single-day loss in over four decades last Friday, plummeting nearly 30% to settle just below $85/oz. Gold didn't escape the carnage either, shedding more than $500/oz to close at $4,865/oz. Despite the dramatic selloff, Scotia Capital's precious metals team is viewing this as a healthy correction rather than a fundamental shift in the market.The analysts characterize the move as removing "speculative froth" that had gripped silver in recent weeks. What's striking is how little ground was actually lost in the broader context—silver prices have only retraced to mid-January levels, roughly 14 trading days ago. For gold, the retracement spans just six trading days, underscoring how parabolic the recent rally had become.Scotia's team argues that the core drivers supporting silver remain intact. They're maintaining their top picks of Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Hochschild Mining (HOC-LON), pointing to robust profit margins for miners. Their covered silver producers are sitting on all-in sustaining costs ranging from $20/oz to $28/oz, which leaves substantial breathing room even after the correction. Free cash flow yields for these companies average around 10% at current spot prices for 2026.The market mechanics tell an interesting story. The one-month silver lease rate has dropped below 1%, suggesting physical tightness has eased following the postponement of US tariffs under the Section 232 investigation. COMEX silver inventories stand at 406 million ounces, down from recent highs above 500 million ounces as market participants had been positioning for potential tariff impacts.The gold-to-silver ratio has rebounded to 53:1 as of Friday from the low 50s earlier in the week. Exchange-traded product holdings have declined by approximately 33 million ounces since the start of January when they stood at 1.26 billion ounces. Much of the action played out through the SLV ETF, which saw extraordinary volume exceeding 500 million shares on Friday alone.Scotia notes that COMEX futures and options positioning shows a declining net long position, likely driven by increased margin requirements that squeezed out leveraged speculators. This is textbook deleveraging, and the analysts expect continued volatility in the weeks ahead as speculative positioning continues to unwind.Silver has averaged around $91/oz quarter-to-date, which still provides healthy margins for producers if prices stabilize at elevated levels. The team describes their outlook as "stronger for longer" for silver prices, even accounting for the recent volatility. Historical context matters here—despite the selloff, silver remains well above its trading range from the past several decades.They note that free cash flow yields have actually improved following Friday's equity corrections, as the equities fell hard.The fundamental scarcity of high-quality primary silver mines remains a supportive factor for the sector. With production costs well below current prices and strong cash flow generation, Scotia sees the mining companies as well-positioned to weather the volatility. Their mixed rating reflects the near-term uncertainty around price action while maintaining conviction in the longer-term outlook for both the metal and quality producers.Details:Pan American Silver (PAAS-Q)Rating: Sector Outperform (SO)Price (Jan 30, 2026): US$54.601-Year Price Target: US$64.00Valuation Context: The report highlights that PAAS remains a top pick, supported by a robust profit outlook for miners and strong forecast Free Cash Flow yields.Hochschild Mining (HOC-L)Rating: Sector Outperform (SO)Price (Jan 30, 2026): GBP 6.761-Year Price Target: GBP 9.00Risk Profile: Key risks identified include volatility in gold and silver prices, geopolitical risks, and potential operational issues at Peruvian and Brazilian sites. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I saw some interesting charts last week showing that Florida housing inventory was trending lower.It went against one of the strongest macro trends in the past two years -- housing weakness. Now it's early days but that's a theme worth exploring as there are some beaten up assets in the housing space and a resurgence in home prices would have positive knock-ons for consumer spending.Similarly, manufacturing has struggled badly but there were some green shoots in the Chicago PMI on Friday and you have to think that Trump's industrial policy will have some effect at some point. It's an area that's been left of dead with all the focus on AI but it's still a big part of the economy and potentially a big opportunity.The US macro week kicks off today at 9:45 am ET with the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for January, following a preliminary reading of 51.9. That's followed 15 minutes later by the ISM Manufacturing report, where consensus expectations point to 48.5, slightly above last month's 48.3 but still below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.Later in the week:Tuesday we get JOLTS and Wednesday offers the ADP Employment report for January (consensus: 45K) and the S&P Global US Services PMI. The services sector has shown more resilience, with the prior reading at 52.5. For more see the economic calendar.Thursday morning features the weekly initial claims data for late January, with consensus estimates at 210K and 1850K respectively.The week culminates Friday with the most anticipated release: January's jobs report. Markets are expecting Non-Farm Payrolls of 50K, down from the prior month's 65K reading. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to show 0.3% monthly growth, matching the previous month.In terms of corporate earnings, here are the names to watch. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Precious metals bounce back to trim losses on the dayHas the bull market in gold ended? History suggests yesEuropean stocks turn things around after a rough start to the new weekUSD/JPY inches up to start the day after Takaichi kerfuffleWhat's at stake now as the US partial shutdown drags to at least Tuesday?RBA preview: Ignore the rate hike and focus on the forward guidanceGermany December retail sales +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedEurozone January final manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 49.4 prelimUK January final manufacturing PMI 51.8 vs 51.6 prelimUK January Nationwide house prices +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expectedMarkets:Gold down 2% to $4,792 but well off 10% drop earlierSilver down 1.8% to $83.68 but well off 16% drop earlierS&P 500 futures -0.3%, Nasdaq futures -0.6%; Nvidia pulls OpenAI investmentEuropean equities higher after weak start, DAX +0.9%USD leads, CHF lags on the dayWTI crude oil down 5.3% to $62.23US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.231%Bitcoin up 1.2% to $77,855 after brief drop under $75,000 earlierIt's quite the exciting start to the week, even if it is not as dramatic as how we ended January trading on Friday last week.Precious metals were once again in the spotlight as the volatile selling continued towards the tail end of Asia trading. Gold dropped by 10% at one point with silver down roughly 16% at the lows before a modest recovery in European morning trade.Both gold and silver have now trimmed declines to roughly 2% only with the former at $4,792 and latter at $83.68 on the day. For some context, the lows for the day for both were at $4,402 and $71.31 respectively. So, that paints a better picture of the bounce we're seeing on the session.As the focus stays on the pullback/correction in precious metals, the dollar continues to find itself in a steadier position. EUR/USD is trading little changed at 1.1848 amid a tighter range with GBP/USD likewise at 1.3686 on the day.Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains underpinned after a bit of a kerfuffle from Japan prime minister Takaichi over the weekend. The currency pair is up 0.1% just under the 155.00 level after Takaichi delivered a positive bias for a weaker yen before trying to walk back on her comments after.In the equities space, things got off to a rough start with European indices opening lower but recovering that and then some as the market turbulence eased during the session. To put things into perspective, the DAX was down around 0.8% early on but recovered well to be up 0.9% instead now.As for US futures, the mood music remains more cautious. Tech shares are still lagging amid AI concerns, that especially after Nvidia pulled investment on OpenAI. That could really open a can of worms and have a domino effect on the space, so just be wary of that.S&P 500 futures are still down 0.3% but at least well off earlier lows of around 1.1%. Nasdaq futures are the same as well, down 0.6% now after being lower by as much at 1.5% earlier in the day.Elsewhere, we're seeing a big move in the oil market as well with prices dropping hard amid hopes for US-Iran de-escalation. WTI crude oil is down over 5% to $62.23, falling back to test its 200-day moving average after last week's rise. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons to appreciate, but there wasn’t a reason for such a strong selloff either. The US data continues to improve, especially on the labour market side as the US Jobless Claims seem to suggest a re-acceleration in activity. February might be the month when the US Dollar comes back with a vengeance if we get another strong set of economic data. The NFP report is certainly the main highlight of this week, but we will get many other top tier data that could give the greenback a boost. The market is pricing 55 bps of easing by year-end and those bets will be pared back in case the data strengthens. Conversely, if the data comes out softer than expected, then we could see the US Dollar coming back under pressure, although the momentum shouldn’t be as strong as the prior weeks.EUR:On the EUR side, the ECB members started to feel uneasy as EUR/USD crossed the 1.20 level last week. This is kind of a line in the sand as ECB’s Vice President de Guindos last year said that a rise above 1.20 would complicate things for them.This week, we have the ECB policy decision where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and reaffirm their neutral stance. The risk is that the ECB jawbones the euro more heavily although they don’t have a reason to do so yet given that the recent data has been stronger than expected.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the 1.20 level but eventually erased the gains as ECB policymakers jawboned the currency and the US data continued to improve. We have a key swing level near the 1.18 handle which could act as support. The buyers will likely step in there with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.16 handle next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new cycle highs.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the resistance zone around the 1.19 handle where we can find the downward trendline. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to extend the gains into new highs. The red line define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the Eurozone Flash CPI, the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we have the ECB policy decision and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The start of the day was a rather poor one for major indices in Europe. That as risk sentiment was on the rocks after some heavy selling in Asian equities as well. The turbulent environment across broader markets didn't help with Nvidia pulling investment on OpenAI, volatile selling in precious metals, cryptocurrencies coming under pressure, and purported ambivalence towards Trump's Fed chair pick in Kevin Warsh.When you tie all those factors in, it did keep the market mood more nervous and unsettling. That especially with gold and silver facing another rout at the tail end of Asia trading. But amid a modest bounce in precious metals, we are seeing a bit more of a calmer mood in the risk side of things as well.European equities were down around 0.5% to 0.8% in the opening hour but have now recovered across the board:Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.8%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7%Meanwhile, US futures have also trimmed declines considerably with the snapshot as per the following:Dow futures -0.1%S&P 500 futures -0.4%Nasdaq futures -0.7%For some context, S&P 500 futures were down around 1.1% at the start of the session with tech shares leading declines as Nasdaq futures were down by as much as 1.5% at one point. And now, things are looking less bleak at the very least.As highlighted above, there are still pressure points for risk sentiment on the day. So, that is not going to make it easy for investors to feel comfortable to turn the switch back on to get into another rallying mood.But at least at this stage, there is some hopeful optimism although a lot of that will be tied to the volatility bouts we're seeing with the likes of gold and silver still. So, be sure to keep a close watch on that if anything else. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It is still a volatile environment with the heavy selling hitting earlier just now at the tail end of Asia trading. But as we shift to European morning trade, we're seeing buying appetite return so far on the session. Gold is up over $350 from its lows, cutting losses to "only" 2.6% on the day now. Meanwhile, silver is up around $12 in a modest bounce off its lows - still down 2.3% on the day though.Well, at least it's not double-digit percentage declines for silver eh? To put things into perspective, the plunge earlier had silver down roughly 16% at the lows. Ouch.So, what's next? Has the volatile and intense selling/correction run its course?It's not so simple and straightforward to extrapolate from the "slight" bounce we're seeing on the session. Again, it would be a fool's errand to be picking bottoms and trying to catch a falling knife.So far, the bounce points to a bit of a relief and breather after the sharp one-sided drop in the past two days. Just like how if price moves too far, too fast in any one direction, there's bound to be a corrective force eventually.However, whether or not this is the start of a more material rebound remains to be seen. The best we can do now is to dig into the price action and look for clues on that.And when it comes to sharp rebounds/pullbacks, Fib retracement levels always do well in helping to provide a rough gauge of sentiment.For gold, we're seeing price action move back above the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the sharp drop from last week. It's encouraging but as the technicals show, that is the first step and the bare minimum in trying to muster any potential stronger rebound. The 38.2 Fib retracement level is up next around $4,860 and will provide a better sense of the dip buying momentum if we do get there.As for silver, we're seeing price only now come up to start to contest the 23.6 Fib retracement level near $83.20. A push back above $90 is the next step to try and convince that the correction may have run its course.But otherwise, we're mostly just seeing a bit of a breather and perhaps some scope for consolidation eventually before any real momentum plays return for precious metals. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe final two days of last week will go in the history books. Gold fell by more than 16% in just two days and extended the losses to 21% today. The risks for a correction were everywhere as the conditions didn’t justify the parabolic surge of the last two weeks. The market got so overstretched that it triggered a quick crash. The most cited reason for the selloff was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Analysts pointed out that he was a hawk during his last term at the Fed, but his recent speeches were all dovish. The historical stance is also never a guarantee. I’m sceptical that Warsh was really the catalyst as the underlying reasons were already pointing to lower prices. Anyway, the last times we got such big crashes they eventually marked the tops in the bull market. This time might be different but for now the fundamentals are against higher prices. This week, the most important catalyst will be the US NFP report. We’ve been seeing improvements in the US Jobless Claims data that seem to suggest a pickup in labour market activity. A strong report would trigger a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations and put further pressure on gold. The other top tier data could also start to weigh on gold if they come out strong, but the NFP report should be the main event of the week. In case we don’t get the bearish catalysts, we could see a rebound in gold but we are unlikely to see new all-time highs any time soon. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see we had a huge crash in gold in the last two days of last week. The price bounced on the major trendline as the dip-buyers stepped in to target a new all-time highs. The sellers will want to see the price falling back below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 3887 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the bounce on the trendline as the dip-buyers piled in after the huge selloff. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we had a minor downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum. The price is now breaking higher so we can expect the buyers to increase the bullish bets into the next trendline around the 5000 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the gains into the all-time highs next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq futures have staged a rebound from the lows, but broader orderFlow context suggests this move remains corrective inside a bearish auction, rather than the start of a sustained bullish phase. But first, I dive into the bigger picture of the Nasdaq futures in my video below, enjpy:--------- NASDAQ TRADER-UPDATE08:05 ET – Monday, February 2Nasdaq futures are showing increased selling participation as price trades near the upper junctions highlighted earlier. While this does not yet signal a reversal, it does mark a shift toward a more contested, two-sided environment.Selling activity has picked up near these higher levels, suggesting sellers are actively testing demand rather than standing aside. So far, that pressure has not produced clear downside displacement, meaning buyers are still absorbing some of the supply.This raises the bar for further upside continuation.Key levels remain in focus$25,525 and $25,600 remain the next upside reaction zones if price continues higher.$25,485 is still the key downside reference. A move back below this level would signal a return into today’s value area.The $25,500 round number remains an important pivot, even after being crossed, as it often regains influence later in the session.What to watch nextWhether selling pressure begins to push price lower, not just slow it down.Whether price can hold above $25,485 despite heavier participation.How price reacts around $25,500–$25,525 as the session develops.For now, the market is more contested, not decisively bearish.Trade at your own risk.----------------------------------------NASDAQ TRADER-UPDATE: Price pushes higher, but key junctions remain in playNasdaq futures are extending higher this morning, with price now crossing above the $25,485 value area high from earlier in the session. That move confirms that bulls are currently in control of the short-term auction, lifting price out of balance rather than rejecting it.That said, this advance is still unfolding inside a decision-heavy environment, where participation and follow-through, not momentum alone, will determine what comes next.What order flow is showing beneath the moveAs price pushed higher, activity increased rather than dried up. Recent price action reflects healthy participation, suggesting this move is not a low-liquidity drift. Both buyers and sellers are actively engaging at these higher levels.Importantly, selling attempts have not yet translated into downside displacement. Periods of mixed or negative pressure have struggled to push price meaningfully lower, which points to absorption rather than aggressive bearish initiative.At the same time, upside progress has been measured rather than impulsive. This tells us the market is still working inventory higher, rather than breaking into a runaway trend.In simple terms, the market is advancing, but it is still deciding, not concluding.Key levels that matter from here on Nasdaa futuresAs price continues higher, attention shifts to new reaction zones, while earlier levels remain highly relevant if price rotates back down.Upside reaction levels to watch$25,525 – First area where participation may shift as price stretches higher.$25,600 – A later junction to monitor for potential hesitation or reaction if the move continues.Key downside reference points$25,485 – Former value area high. A reversal back below this level would signal a return into today’s value.$25,500 round number – Still a major reference. Even after being crossed, round numbers often regain influence later in the session as algorithms reassess positioning.An important reminder for Nasdaq futures tradersMarkets do not forget important junctions simply because price temporarily moves away from them.Even if price behaves differently than initially anticipated, key levels retain their pull power. Larger participants and algorithms often re-engage these areas later in the day, sometimes hours after they first come into focus.This is why professional traders keep prior value highs, round numbers, and high-participation zones on their radar throughout the session. The game keeps moving, but the map stays relevant.What to watch nextWhether price can hold above $25,485 without slipping back into value.How price behaves as it approaches $25,525 and later $25,600.Whether selling pressure eventually produces real displacement, or continues to be absorbed.For now, bulls have the upper hand, but this remains a reaction-driven environment, not one to trade on assumptions.Trade at your own risk.--------------Video walkthrough: Key Nasdaq futures levels and why they matterIn today’s video update, I walk through the Nasdaq futures structure using higher-timeframe reference points to explain why short-term rebounds still need to be treated with caution.The analysis starts with a major pivot low from late December, which continues to act as a structural anchor for the current market phase. From that low, an anchored VWAP has been plotted, shown on the chart as a purple line. That anchored VWAP is currently acting as resistance, not support.This distinction matters. On Friday, price was trading very close to that anchored VWAP from below, and today it remains a key line in the sand. If price were to retrace toward it from below and fail, it would reinforce the idea that sellers still have the upper hand.One level highlighted in particular is $25,536, which sits just below that anchored VWAP and coincides with a prior structural low. This zone acts as a reference point for assessing the strength of any rebound. If price cannot even retrace toward that area, it suggests sellers remain aggressive and are not allowing buyers much room to rebuild momentum.Another important reference is a declining red trend line that has acted as support on multiple prior occasions. Despite the recent bounce, that line has not yet been retested, which increases the odds that price may still rotate lower to test it before any broader recovery can be trusted.From an order flow perspective, the video emphasizes that short-term rebounds do not automatically invalidate bearish control. While lower timeframes may show temporary strength, broader order flow still suggests sellers are slightly stronger than buyers so far today.The analysis then shifts to Friday’s session structure. Friday’s value area low sits near $25,631, a level that becomes relevant if price continues higher. This is not just another random number. It represents an area where volume previously concentrated, meaning algorithms and larger participants often pay attention there.For traders, this has practical implications. If price approaches that zone during a rebound, it can be a logical area to reduce exposure or take partial profits, as two-way trade and hesitation are common around such levels.Above that, the video highlights Friday’s point of control near $25,720, along with Friday’s VWAP in the same general area. When multiple reference levels cluster together, they form what can be thought of as decision junctions, zones where the market often pauses to reassess direction.Another level discussed is the first upper standard deviation of the anchored VWAP, near $25,900. This sits well above current price and represents a further junction that would only come into play if buyers prove stronger than currently anticipated.Finally, I introduce a modified pitchfork and trend structure to provide context, showing how price has been moving between key reference zones rather than trending freely. This reinforces a core takeaway for traders: price is being guided by risk management decisions from larger participants, not by random candle patterns.Okay, now, what about the Nasdaq order flow analysis for today so far? While short-term candles and momentum indicators may look constructive, the underlying order flow tells a more nuanced story.What orderFlow at Nasdaq Futures Today is showing beneath the surfaceHigher-timeframe value remains lower. On larger range-based orderFlow views, value has migrated down and has not been reclaimed. This tells us the market is still accepting lower prices, even as short-term buying appears.VWAP is still acting as a ceiling, not support. Price has tested into the VWAP zone but has not built acceptance above it. In orderFlow terms, that signals responsive buying, not initiative control.Recent buying was absorbed, not extended. Earlier selling pressure stopped pushing price lower, which allowed a bounce. However, that bounce failed to convert into sustained upside acceptance. This is typical of inventory adjustment, not a regime change.Selling pressure returns near structure. As price moved higher, sellers re-engaged near prior value and VWAP, indicating that larger participants are still using rallies to distribute risk rather than chase higher prices.In short, the market is balancing short-term buying against higher-timeframe selling control.The key price levels that change the story for Nasdaq Futures TodayBullish thresholdSustained acceptance above $25,500 (less likely)If price can hold above this level and build value there, it would signal that buyers are no longer just absorbing pressure, but actually taking control of the auction. That would materially change the outlook.Bearish thresholdAcceptance back below $25,400 (more likely)A move back below this level, especially with follow-through, reinforces the view that the recent rally was corrective. In that case, downside risk reasserts toward lower value zones.How to think about this environment for today's Nasdaq analysisThis is not a market that rewards chasing candles or relying solely on indicators. OrderFlow shows a sell-the-rally structure, where short-term strength must prove itself at key acceptance levels before it can be trusted.Until the bullish threshold is reclaimed and held, rallies remain vulnerable. Until the bearish threshold breaks decisively, expect tactical noise rather than straight-line continuation.Trade at your own risk.For more real-time trader updates, trade ideas, and orderFlow-driven insights, join our free Telegram channel: https://t.me/investingLiveStocksUpdate on Nasdaq Future Live: Watching acceptance and buyer commitment near value highsAs price continued to grind higher, Nasdaq futures reached the upper edge of the developing value area, a dynamic zone that has been recalculating as activity increased.At the time of writing:VWAP is near $25,386Point of control remains near $25,400Value area high is near $25,466Rather than being rejected sharply, price has been leaning into this zone, which already tells us something important. Markets that intend to reverse lower usually do so quickly from value highs. Grinding behavior instead signals that inventory is still being worked through.However, the most recent order flow adds an important layer of nuance.A notable bar formed shortly after the round-hour window, with elevated volume relative to surrounding bars, while price held firm near the value area high. That kind of activity often reflects larger participants actively engaging liquidity rather than price moving on low participation.What followed is equally important.Subsequent bars failed to extend higher and instead opened back below the value area high and below recent high-volume zones, with buying pressure becoming less visible. This does not yet constitute a rejection, but it does introduce a pause in buyer commitment.In other words, the market accepted higher prices, but now needs to prove it still wants them.Why this matters (an educational note for Nasdaq futures traders)This sequence highlights a key concept that many traders miss:High volume alone is not bullish or bearishWhat matters is what price does after that volume appearsWhen heavy activity shows up near a key level and price does not move away decisively, it often means one side is absorbing the other. The next few bars then become critical, because they reveal whether that absorption turns into continuation or simply exhausts participation.Another important takeaway is the role of value area highs.Value highs are not static resistance lines. When price grinds into them and value recalculates upward, it means the market is attempting to accept higher prices. Failure here tends to show up not as an immediate collapse, but as loss of upside follow-through, often before price visibly turns lower.This is why professional traders focus less on single candles and more on sequences and behavior around key reference zones.What we are monitoring from hereWhether price can reclaim and hold above the value area highWhether buying pressure reappears on pullbacks rather than fadingOr whether continued hesitation near value leads to rotation back into balanceAt this stage, the market is still deciding. There is no confirmed breakout, but also no confirmed rejection.So, Nasdaq futures traders...The broader view remains unchanged: this is a corrective rally inside a larger bearish auction, and rallies still need to prove themselves.The new development adds an important refinement:Buyers have pushed price higherBut they now need to recommit near value highs to avoid rotationUntil that happens, traders should remain selective, patient, and aware that acceptance matters more than momentary price spikes.For ongoing real-time updates and orderFlow-driven insights like this, join our free Telegram channel: https://t.me/investingLiveStocksWe focus on helping traders understand why markets behave the way they do, not just what the candles show. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Credit Agricole notes that a lot of the negatives surrounding the US dollar are now priced into the currency already. And given the circumstances in play, that provides a scope for the greenback to rebound in perhaps the coming three to six months period.The firm argues that despite upgrading their forecast for gold this year, they believe that dollar bulls should not "throw in the towel just yet". For some context, Credit Agricole was out last week with this note on gold:"We mark to market our XAU forecasts and expect gold to remain above USD5,000/oz in H126. We doubt that the current pace of gains would be sustained, however, and think further that the gold rally could start running out of steam in H226.""In particular: We expect that, like 2025, global geopolitical and US political risks could start to fade while the ‘sell America trade’ could ultimately fail to materialise as the year progresses. In turn, this could help the USD stabilise vs XAU in H226."Adding that they see gold at $5,100 in Q4 2026 and then $5,500 in Q4 2027.Circling back to the dollar, the firm says that:"The “Sell America” trade has recently grown into a full-blown USD crisis that poses some risks to our above-consensus outlook for the currency. We have upgraded our gold forecasts as a result but believe that it is too early for the USD bulls to throw in the towel just yet. This is because, like in 2025: (1) the “sell America” trade has already gone into reverse; (2) US government shutdown risks need not last; and (3) growing geopolitical risks centred around Iran could boost the safe-haven appeal of the USD.""Our historic analysis further suggests that the USD’s path since the 2024 election has been similar to its evolution after President Donald Trump’s 2016 election win. Using Trump 1.0 as a template would also signal that many negatives are in the USD price and that a rebound could be on the cards in the next three to six months." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to hike the Cash Rate by 25 bps and bring it to 3.85% following hot employment and inflation data. In fact, the latest jobs report showed a much bigger than expected gain in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% vs 4.3% prior. That's when the market started to price in a rate hike at the February meeting with the Australian Dollar surging across the board. The case was sealed following higher than expected inflation data in the Q4 CPI report where the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y rose to 3.4% vs 3.0% prior. This is much higher than RBA's 2-3% target and counter to the central bank's forecasts. In fact, the RBA expected inflation to moderate in the December quarter because some of the increase in the September quarter was seen as temporary. They were clearly wrong.Moreover, RBA Governor Bullock said that inflation and jobs data would be important for the February board meeting and that, if the data suggested inflation was not slowing, this would be considered at the meeting. Traders aren't going to focus on the rate hike because that's already priced in. The focus will be on the forward guidance and whether the RBA strikes a hawkish or cautious tone. The market is pricing 55 bps of tigthening by year-end, which means there's another rate hike expected.The central bank will need to "out-hawk" traders' expectations to boost further the Australian Dollar. That's not going to be easy for them as they will likely need to pre-commit to a rate hike earlier than expected or signal more rate hikes than currently priced in (for that the updated forecasts will be eyed). Therefore, the risks for the Australian Dollar are mostly skewed to the downside just because of the current positioning. If the RBA surprises keeping the Cash Rate steady at this meeting, we will likely see the Australian Dollar selling off across the board as positioning resets. From a risk management perspective, it doesn't make sense for the RBA to wait further at this point. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.