Japan’s Tankan shows improving business sentiment, with large manufacturers at their strongest since 2021, but a softer outlook and falling profit expectations signal growing caution ahead.Summary:Japan Tankan shows large manufacturers sentiment at +17 (vs +16 expected) Marks 4th straight quarterly improvement, highest since Dec 2021 Non-manufacturers strong at +36, beating expectations Outlook softens: big manufacturers seen at +14 in June Profit outlook weak: firms see FY profits falling ~2% Capex mixed: large firms +3.3%, small firms -8.1% The Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan survey showed continued resilience in corporate sentiment, with large manufacturers extending their recovery streak, though forward-looking indicators point to a more cautious outlook.The headline index for large manufacturers rose to +17 in March, beating expectations and marking a fourth consecutive quarterly improvement. The reading is the strongest since December 2021, suggesting that Japan’s industrial sector has maintained momentum despite a challenging global backdrop. Non-manufacturers remained particularly strong, with the index holding at +36, also above forecasts. This highlights ongoing support from the domestic economy, particularly in services, even as external conditions remain uncertain.However, the outlook component suggests this resilience may not be sustained. Large manufacturers expect sentiment to ease to +14 in June, while non-manufacturers are also seen moderating to +29. This forward-looking weakness points to rising caution among firms, likely reflecting global demand concerns and geopolitical risks.Profit expectations reinforce this more subdued outlook. Firms forecast a roughly 2% decline in recurring profits for the fiscal year, indicating margin pressure from rising costs and softer demand.Investment plans remain uneven. Large firms intend to increase capital expenditure by 3.3%, signalling ongoing confidence in longer-term growth, while small firms expect a sharp contraction in spending, highlighting a divergence in financial strength across the corporate sector.Labour market conditions remain tight, with the employment index at -38, suggesting persistent worker shortages. Financial conditions, however, remain broadly accommodative.Overall, the survey presents a nuanced picture: current conditions are firm and improving, but momentum is expected to fade. For the Bank of Japan, this mix of resilience and caution supports a gradual approach to policy normalisation rather than aggressive tightening.----The Tankan survey is a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to measure the economic health of Japanese companies. The survey is widely considered to be one of the most important indicators of the Japanese economy, as it provides a detailed snapshot of the current and expected business conditions among large manufacturers, non-manufacturers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan.The survey is based on a sample of approximately 10,000 companies and covers a wide range of topics, including business conditions, investment plans, and employment. The survey results are used by the BOJ and other government agencies to make policy decisions, and are also closely watched by economists, investors, and businesses. The Tankan survey is usually released in the first week of the month following the quarter it covers, and it's considered as a leading indicator for the Japanese economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump doubles down on rapid Iran exit timeline, signalling shift to mission-complete stance.Summary:Trump reiterates U.S. could end Iran war within 2–3 weeks, signalling accelerated exit timeline Says no deal required with Tehran for withdrawal, marking shift from negotiation-dependent framing Condition for exit: Iran’s nuclear capability must be effectively neutralised Comments reinforce earlier signals of imminent withdrawal and claimed “objectives achieved” Highlights pivot from escalation phase toward mission-complete narrative, though risks remainU.S. President Donald Trump has reinforced earlier signals that Washington is preparing to wind down its military campaign against Iran, stating that the conflict could end within two to three weeks.Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said the United States would be “leaving very soon,” with a withdrawal potentially occurring “within two weeks, maybe two, maybe three.” The remarks build on earlier comments in which he suggested U.S. objectives had largely been achieved and that a resolution could come quickly.Crucially, Trump indicated that a formal agreement with Tehran is not a prerequisite for ending the conflict. When asked whether a deal was necessary, he responded that Iran “doesn’t have to make a deal,” instead framing the exit condition around military outcomes rather than diplomacy.According to Trump, the key requirement is that Iran’s capabilities, particularly its ability to develop a nuclear weapon, are sufficiently degraded. He described the objective as ensuring Iran is effectively unable to reconstitute such capabilities in the near term, after which U.S. forces would withdraw.The latest remarks suggest a transition toward a “mission accomplished” narrative, with Washington seeking to exit after applying significant force rather than securing a formal settlement.This evolving stance comes against the backdrop of a month-long conflict that has reshaped regional dynamics, disrupted shipping and energy flows, and driven volatility across global markets. U.S. forces have maintained a heavy presence in the region, including multiple carrier strike groups and additional troop deployments, underscoring the scale of the operation.While the compressed timeline signals a potential de-escalation, uncertainty remains high. Questions persist around the durability of any withdrawal, the extent of damage to Iran’s capabilities, and whether unresolved issues could trigger renewed tensions after a U.S. exit. And over the credibility of Trump's comments.... “within two weeks, maybe two, maybe three.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the tax office will offer temporary relief to businesses impacted by the Iran war, including payment deferrals and support measures. Small businesses will gain easier access to credit, with options such as loan restructuring and emergency increases to credit limits to help manage cash flow pressures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to contraction in March as demand weakened and cost pressures surged. Middle East-related supply disruptions and rising input costs weighed on activity, while confidence deteriorated sharply.Summary:Australian manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.8 (prev. 51.0) in March New orders declined for the first time in five months, signalling weakening demand Input cost inflation surged to a 3.5-year high, driven by energy and freight costs Supply chains deteriorated amid shipping delays linked to the Middle East conflict Business confidence dropped sharply to the lowest level in 20 monthsAustralia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in March, as weakening demand and intensifying cost pressures highlighted the growing economic impact of global geopolitical tensions.The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 from 51.0 in February, dropping below the neutral 50 threshold and signalling a marginal deterioration in operating conditions. The decline was driven primarily by a renewed fall in new orders, which decreased for the first time in five months as customer demand softened and confidence weakened. Production also declined for a second consecutive month, reflecting both weaker demand and ongoing supply-side constraints. Firms reported increasing difficulty sourcing materials, with supplier delivery times deteriorating sharply. Shipping delays, often linked to disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict, contributed to longer lead times and reduced operational efficiency.At the same time, cost pressures intensified significantly. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in three-and-a-half years, with higher oil prices feeding through to freight and fuel costs. Around 40% of surveyed firms reported rising input costs, underscoring the breadth of inflationary pressures across the sector. Output prices also increased, indicating that some of these costs are being passed on to customers.Despite weakness in domestic demand, export orders remained a relative bright spot, rising at the fastest pace since mid-2021. However, this strength was insufficient to offset broader softness in overall activity.Labour market conditions also deteriorated, with employment falling for the first time in five months as firms responded to lower workloads and rising costs. Purchasing activity and inventories declined, reflecting cautious business behaviour amid uncertainty.Looking ahead, confidence weakened sharply, falling to its lowest level in 20 months. Firms cited concerns over the persistence of geopolitical tensions and their impact on demand and supply chains. While some manufacturers remain hopeful that exports and stabilising conditions could support a recovery, the near-term outlook remains highly uncertain. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump signals a rapid U.S. exit from Iran within 2–3 weeks, citing progress and possible deal Claims “regime change already” suggests Washington sees objectives largely achieved Comments contrast with earlier expectations of a longer military presence (6–8 weeks or more) Signals potential shift from escalation to negotiation phase Raises uncertainty over durability of any withdrawal and stability in the regionU.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that American forces could withdraw from Iran within weeks, marking a potentially sharp pivot in the trajectory of the conflict.Speaking late Tuesday, Trump said the United States would be “leaving Iran very soon,” adding that a withdrawal could take place within two to three weeks. He also suggested that Washington’s objectives may already have been achieved, stating that “we have had regime change already,” while noting that a deal with Tehran could still be reached before any exit is completed.The remarks point to a significantly shorter timeline than previously expected. Earlier guidance from defence officials and administration figures (Hegseth) had implied a more extended presence, potentially six to eight weeks or longer, as U.S. forces worked to stabilise conditions and maintain pressure on Iran.The shift in tone suggests the administration may be seeking to transition from a military-heavy phase toward a negotiated outcome. Trump’s reference to a possible deal reinforces the idea that diplomatic channels remain active, even as military operations have intensified in recent weeks. Trump's public remarks nee to be taken with care, though, he is not known as being overly truthful, and indeed in his role as head of the military he does need to be deceptive from time time. However, the compressed timeline raises questions about the durability of any withdrawal. A rapid exit could leave unresolved risks around Iran’s nuclear programme, missile capabilities and regional proxy networks, issues that Washington has repeatedly cited as central to its objectives.From a strategic standpoint, the comments may reflect confidence that sufficient pressure has already been applied, or a desire to avoid a prolonged and potentially costly engagement. At the same time, the divergence between Trump’s remarks and earlier expectations of a longer deployment highlights ongoing uncertainty around U.S. strategy.Markets are likely to interpret the comments as a tentative de-escalation signal, though credibility will hinge on follow-through and whether any agreement materialises in the coming weeks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the news. Summary:A U.S. firm, Virtus Minerals, has acquired cobalt producer Chemaf in the DRC, marking a strategic win over China Deal valued at ~$30 million upfront plus ~$720 million in investment commitments Chemaf controls assets capable of producing ~5% of global cobalt supply Acquisition backed by U.S. government as part of critical minerals strategy Significant operational, financial and political risks remain, including ~$1 billion in debt and challenging conditions on the groundA U.S.-backed firm has acquired control of one of the largest non-Chinese cobalt producers, marking a strategic step in Washington’s push to secure critical mineral supply chains.Virtus Minerals has completed the purchase of Chemaf, a copper-and-cobalt producer in the Democratic Republic of Congo, in a deal involving a $30 million upfront payment and plans to raise roughly $720 million in investment. The acquisition gives the U.S. exposure to assets capable of producing around 5% of global cobalt supply, a key input for electric vehicles, defence systems and electronics. The deal caps a multi-year effort by U.S. officials to gain a foothold in Congo’s mining sector, where Chinese companies have spent heavily and now dominate production. Virtus has indicated future output will be directed toward U.S. and allied buyers, aligning with broader national security and industrial policy goals.However, the acquisition comes with significant challenges. Chemaf carries roughly $1 billion in debt and operates in one of the most difficult mining environments globally, with infrastructure constraints, regulatory uncertainty and ongoing issues with informal mining at key sites.Execution risk is a central concern. Virtus is a relatively small firm with limited large-scale mining experience, and substantial capital expenditure—estimated at up to $300 million—is still required to upgrade operations and reach target production levels.The deal also follows the collapse of a previous $920 million sale of Chemaf to a Chinese state-linked buyer, highlighting both the strategic importance of the asset and the complexity of executing transactions in the region.While the acquisition represents a geopolitical win for Washington in the race against Beijing, its ultimate success will depend on whether Virtus can stabilise operations and deliver sustained production in a challenging environment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand February building permits +2.7% m/m (prior +1.9%)+22.9% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK lifts youth minimum wage to £10.85, boosting incomes but raising hiring-cost concerns.The UK has lifted the National Minimum Wage for 18–20-year-olds to £10.85/hour from April 1, 2026 This equates to roughly a £1,500 annual pay boost for a full-time young worker Over 200,000 young workers are expected to benefit directly The move is part of a broader cost-of-living package alongside energy bill relief The increase is significantly larger than the adult wage rise, signalling a push to narrow age-based pay gapsThe UK government has implemented an increase in the National Minimum Wage for younger workers, lifting the rate for those aged 18–20 to £10.85 per hour from April 1, 2026. The change delivers an estimated £1,500 annual pay rise for full-time workers in this age group and is expected to benefit more than 200,000 individuals.The move forms part of a broader package of measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures, which also includes temporary energy bill relief and targeted support for vulnerable households. The policy comes at a time when global energy prices and inflation risks remain elevated, partly driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.Notably, the increase for younger workers is proportionally larger than that applied to older workers. The National Living Wage for those aged 21 and over has been raised to £12.71 per hour, implying a smaller annual gain of around £900. This reflects the government’s longer-term strategy to reduce and eventually eliminate the gap between youth and adult wage rates.The policy marks a continuation of a broader trend in UK labour market reform, with youth wages rising sharply in recent years. Officials have framed the move as a necessary step to improve living standards and support workforce participation, particularly as young workers face rising housing, transport and energy costs.However, the increase is not without controversy. Some employers and industry groups have warned that higher wage floors could raise hiring costs, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on younger workers such as retail and hospitality. Concerns have also been raised about potential impacts on youth employment, with joblessness among younger cohorts already elevated.Despite these concerns, the government has signalled it is prioritising income support and fairness in pay, even as it attempts to balance pressures on businesses and the broader economy. The policy underscores a key tension in the current environment: supporting household incomes while managing inflation risks and labour market dynamics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I noted a surge in de-escalation hopes despite reading this. Summary:A third US aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, is deploying to the Middle East, potentially lifting the regional total to three carriers. Perhaps though its replacing one already there. The move sustains an elevated US military posture as Washington weighs further escalation against Iran The USS Abraham Lincoln is already active in the Arabian Sea, while USS Gerald R. Ford remains in port for repairs Additional forces, including Marines, amphibious ships and fighter jets, reinforce a broad and flexible strike capability Deployment signals sustained pressure on Tehran as Trump pushes for concessions on nuclear, missile and proxy activityThe United States is preparing to deploy a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, reinforcing an already significant military presence as tensions with Iran remain elevated and the risk of further escalation persists.The USS George H.W. Bush has departed Naval Station Norfolk and is expected to head toward the region, where it would join the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike groups. While the Ford is currently in port undergoing repairs, US officials indicate that Washington could maintain three carriers in or near the region for an extended period, underscoring the scale and durability of the buildup.The Lincoln has been operating in the Arabian Sea for months, playing a central role in ongoing US-Israel operations targeting Iranian-linked assets. The addition of another carrier, alongside recent deployments of amphibious assault ships, Marine expeditionary units and additional fighter aircraft, significantly expands US operational flexibility across air, sea and land domains.The timing aligns with intensifying strategic pressure from Washington. President Donald Trump has warned that the US is prepared to escalate military action if Iran does not agree to a deal addressing nuclear enrichment, ballistic missile development and support for regional proxy groups. The carrier buildup provides both deterrence and immediate strike capacity, allowing the US to respond rapidly to developments while maintaining sustained operational tempo.From a military standpoint, multiple carrier strike groups in proximity enable overlapping air cover, extended sortie generation and redundancy in command-and-control, particularly important in a contested environment such as the Gulf and surrounding waterways. The inclusion of amphibious forces further points to optionality beyond airstrikes, including rapid-response or limited ground operations.The broader message is one of sustained pressure rather than imminent resolution. While diplomatic channels remain uncertain and signals from Iran have been mixed, the continued reinforcement of US forces suggests Washington is preparing for a prolonged standoff, with escalation risks still firmly on the table. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This via Wall Street Journal info. How to turn a $4 bn company into $39 mn. Yikes. Summary:Allbirds has agreed to sell most of its business for $39 million, marking a dramatic collapse from its ~$4 billion peak valuation The deal transfers IP, assets and liabilities to American Exchange Group, subject to shareholder approval (expected Q2 2026 close) Sale price is a fraction of its 2021 IPO proceeds (~$301 million) and reflects years of weak execution and demand Shares have fallen more than 95% since listing, with another sharp drop following the announcement Strategic missteps, product failures, brand drift and overreliance on sustainability, eroded its early momentumAllbirds has struck a deal to effectively sell most of its business for just $39 million, capping a steep fall from its once high-profile status as a ~$4 billion sustainability-driven disruptor. The agreement will see American Exchange Group acquire key intellectual property along with assets and liabilities, in a transaction that still requires shareholder approval and is expected to close in Q2 2026.The valuation collapse is stark. The sale price represents only a small fraction of the roughly $301 million Allbirds raised in its 2021 IPO and highlights how sharply investor sentiment has turned on the brand. Shares have lost more than 95% of their value since listing, with further downside following news of the deal.Founded in 2016, Allbirds quickly built a loyal following with its eco-friendly wool sneakers, gaining traction among Silicon Valley professionals and high-profile consumers. Its pitch, that sustainability and commercial success could go hand in hand, resonated strongly in an era of ESG enthusiasm and direct-to-consumer growth stories.However, the company struggled to convert early momentum into durable scale. Its core assumption, that consumers would consistently pay a premium for sustainability, proved weaker in practice, as shoppers prioritised price, comfort and style. While competitors leaned into performance or fashion, Allbirds remained heavily anchored to its environmental narrative.Execution issues compounded the challenge. Product expansion into categories such as apparel and performance footwear delivered mixed results, with some high-profile missteps, including flawed product launches, damaging brand credibility. At the same time, attempts to broaden its audience diluted its identity, leaving the company caught between lifestyle branding and technical performance positioning.Competition intensified as newer brands gained traction with both performance credibility and stronger design appeal. As customer loyalty faded, Allbirds lost relevance in key demographics, particularly among trend-sensitive consumers.Ultimately, the transaction underscores the difficulty of sustaining early-stage hype without consistent product-market fit and disciplined strategy. What began as a category-defining ESG success story has ended in a distressed-style asset sale, offering a cautionary tale for consumer brands built on narrative as much as product. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It's an up day!The major stock indices moved sharply to the upside in hopes that the into the Iranian war will be over sooner rather than later. That is still open for debate, but with the major indices down sharply for the month, the market was in the mood to push to the upside. The gains in the major indices were the largest going back to May 2025. A summary of the final numbers shows:Dow industrial average rose 1125.19 points or 2.49% at 46341.33S&P index rose 184.79 points or 2.91% at 6528.51.NASDAQ index rose 795.99 points or 3.83% at 21590.63. Small-cap Russell 2000 rose 82.36 points or 3.41% at 2496.37.Here are today's top gainers ranked by percentage change:Marvell (MRVL) — +12.86% (+$11.29) | Last: $99.10Nebius NV (NBIS) — +12.46% (+$11.50) | Last: $103.76SanDisk (SNDK) — +10.98% (+$62.84) | Last: $635.34Arm (ARM) — +10.45% (+$14.31) | Last: $151.27Roblox (RBLX) — +9.03% (+$4.69) | Last: $56.60Super Micro Computer (SMCI) — +8.14% (+$1.72) | Last: $22.78United Airlines (UAL) — +8.05% (+$6.86) | Last: $92.07Alaska Air (ALK) — +7.60% (+$2.60) | Last: $36.79Western Digital (WDC) — +7.53% (+$18.96) | Last: $270.63Intel (INTC) — +7.23% (+$2.98) | Last: $44.17Lam Research (LRCX) — +6.87% (+$13.73) | Last: $213.66First Solar (FSLR) — +6.80% (+$12.56) | Last: $197.26Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) — +6.78% (+$21.46) | Last: $337.96Meta Platforms (META) — +6.68% (+$35.83) | Last: $572.21Trump Media & Tech (DJT) — +6.54% (+$0.57) | Last: $9.29ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG) — +6.49% (+$1.61) | Last: $26.43ARK Innovation (ARKK) — +6.42% (+$4.08) | Last: $67.60Palantir (PLTR) — +6.38% (+$8.78) | Last: $146.33Robinhood Markets (HOOD) — +6.35% (+$4.14) | Last: $69.30Ciena Corp (CIEN) — +6.30% (+$23.00) | Last: $388.00Emerson (EMR) — +6.27% (+$7.73) | Last: $131.03Barrick Mining (B) — +6.14% (+$2.36) | Last: $40.81Caterpillar (CAT) — +6.13% (+$40.93) | Last: $708.36Shopify (SHOP) — +6.13% (+$6.85) | Last: $118.62Industry Group Breakdown & Strength Assessment? Semiconductors & Chip Equipment — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Very StrongMRVL +12.86% | SNDK +10.98% | ARM +10.45% | INTC +7.23% | LRCX +6.87% | TSM +6.78%The clear leader of the day. Six major names all surging 7–13% is a powerful, broad-based move — not a one-off spike. When both design (ARM, MRVL), manufacturing (TSM), equipment (LRCX), and storage (SNDK) all rally together, it signals genuine sector conviction, not just rotation. This is the engine of the entire rally.? AI Infrastructure & Cloud — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Very StrongNBIS +12.46% | SMCI +8.14% | PLTR +6.38%Nebius and Super Micro are direct AI infrastructure plays, and both had outsized moves. Palantir's gain reinforces that AI software is also being bid up. The breadth here — hardware, servers, and analytics — suggests the market is pricing in accelerating AI buildout.? High-Growth Tech & Consumer Internet — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ StrongRBLX +9.03% | META +6.68% | HOOD +6.35% | SHOP +6.13%A solid group. Meta's near-7% gain is notable given its massive market cap — big ships don't move that fast without real buying pressure. Roblox and Shopify suggest risk appetite is high. Robinhood likely benefiting from the overall market excitement driving retail activity.✈️ Airlines — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ StrongUAL +8.05% | ALK +7.60%Two major carriers both up 7–8% is a meaningful move. This likely reflects falling fuel cost expectations and/or improving travel demand data. Airlines are economically sensitive, so this gain also signals broader macro optimism — investors aren't just buying tech, they're buying the economy.? ARK ETFs (Innovation Basket) — ⭐⭐⭐ ModerateARKG +6.49% | ARKK +6.42%Solid gains but these are ETFs that follow the broader innovation/risk trade — they're more of a reflection of the day's sentiment than a driver. Their move confirms high risk appetite but doesn't add independent conviction.? Industrials — ⭐⭐⭐ ModerateCAT +6.13% | EMR +6.27%Caterpillar and Emerson are bellwether industrials. Gains here suggest the rally has legs beyond just tech — investors are pricing in economic resilience. However, 6% gains in industrials are more of a "tide lifting all boats" story than a sector-specific catalyst.☀️ Clean Energy — ⭐⭐⭐ ModerateFSLR +6.80%First Solar had a nice bounce but it's a single name. Hard to call this a sector move without more solar/renewable names confirming. Treat it as stock-specific momentum.? Mining — ⭐⭐ CautiousBarrick (B) +6.14%A gold miner rising on a big up day is slightly unusual — gold is typically a defensive/fear trade. This could reflect currency dynamics or commodity optimism rather than pure risk-on sentiment. Worth monitoring.? Overall JudgmentThis is a high-conviction, broad risk-on rally. The fact that semiconductors, AI infrastructure, airlines, and big-cap tech all moved together — and nothing on this list is down — points to a macro catalyst (likely tariff relief news, a Fed signal, or strong economic data) rather than sector rotation. The semiconductor surge in particular gives this rally real credibility. The weakness to watch: if chips fade first, the rest likely follows.The month of March was the worst since February 2025For the month of March, the results were not so rosy. The declines were the worst since February 2025Dow industrial average fell -5.38%S&P index fell -5.09%NASDAQ index fell -4.75%A look at some of the big losers by industry shows:Industry Group Breakdown & Assessment of the Major Loser for the month✈️ Airlines & Travel — ? Severely DamagedAlaska Air -23.91% | Southwest -20.28% | American Airlines -13.72%Three major carriers all down 15–24% over the month is a brutal, broad-based collapse. This isn't stock-specific — it's a sector in distress. Likely driven by fears of a consumer spending slowdown, rising fuel costs, and recession anxiety. Today's bounce (UAL +8%, ALK +7.6%) looks like a relief rally within a deeper downtrend — proceed with caution.? Defense & Aerospace — ? Severely DamagedRaytheon -36.14% | Boeing -12.44%Raytheon's -36% is the single worst performer on the entire list — a stunning collapse for a defense giant. Boeing's continued decline adds to the pain. This sector may be pricing in budget cuts, contract concerns, or geopolitical uncertainty. Raytheon's move in particular warrants a closer look at company-specific news.? Semiconductors & AI Hardware — ? Hard HitSMCI -30.23% | Micron -15.73%Super Micro's -30% over the month tells a very different story from today's +8% bounce — it remains deeply underwater. Micron's drop reflects broader chip demand uncertainty. Today's sector rally looks like a dead cat bounce candidate for SMCI specifically.? High-Growth Tech & Consumer Internet — ? Significant WeaknessRoblox -16.02% | Robinhood -15.70% | DoorDash -15.53% | Meta -14.31% | Adobe -10.99% | Snowflake -10.41% | Box -10.21%The widest group by name count. Meta's -14% monthly loss vs. today's +6.68% gain perfectly illustrates the volatility — one good day doesn't erase weeks of selling. High-growth and speculative tech clearly bore the brunt of macro fear this month.? Housing & Consumer Discretionary — ? Notable WeaknessLennar -18.50% | Chipotle -12.86% | Lululemon -11.61% | Home Depot -10.93% | Whirlpool -10.11% | Tapestry -10.08%Housing (Lennar) and consumer spending names are getting hit hard — a clear signal that the market is worried about the American consumer. Rising rates, inflation fatigue, and recession fears are all showing up here. This is a concerning cluster.? Financials & Fintech — ? Under PressureRobinhood -15.70% | SoFi -15.08% | Strategy -14.76% | Deutsche Bank -10.73%Retail-facing fintechs (Robinhood, SoFi) are down sharply, likely on fears of declining retail trading activity and credit stress. Deutsche Bank's inclusion adds an international dimension — European banking concerns may be bleeding in. Strategy's drop likely tied to Bitcoin/crypto volatility.? Healthcare & Medical Devices — ? Quietly HurtingStryker -13.96% | Boston Scientific -13.11% | Moderna -12.11% | ARKG -10.44%Defensive healthcare names losing 10–14% is a red flag — when even "safe" sectors sell off this hard, it typically means forced liquidation or broad risk-off panic, not just sector rotation.? Restaurants & Consumer Staples — ? Moderate but TellingGeneral Mills -14.51% | Chipotle -12.86%General Mills falling nearly 15% is striking — consumer staples are supposed to be recession-proof. This suggests either margin compression from tariffs/inflation or that the selloff was truly indiscriminate.? Autos & Industrials — ? ModerateFord -10.07%Ford barely makes the list but its presence reflects broader auto sector anxiety — tariff impacts on supply chains and EV demand uncertainty are likely culprits.? Overall Judgment of the LosersThis monthly picture tells a much darker story than today's single-day rally suggests. The damage is sweeping — airlines, defense, tech, housing, healthcare, and consumer names all down 10–36%. This is the footprint of a macro-driven selloff, almost certainly tied to tariff fears, recession anxiety, and rate uncertainty.The key tension: Today's big up day happened on top of a month of heavy losses. That makes it look more like a oversold bounce or relief rally than the start of a new bull run. The stocks that bounced hardest today (SMCI, ALK, RBLX, META) are also among the worst monthly performers — classic short-covering behavior. Until the monthly chart stops making lower lows, treat daily rallies with skepticism.Industry Group Breakdown & Assessment of the Major Winners for the month?️ Energy — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Dominant Theme of the MonthOccidental +21.25% | Exxon Mobil +17.54% & +13.23% | Shell +12.45% | Chevron +11.22%Energy is clearly the strongest sector of the month by breadth and consistency. Four major names — covering US independents (Oxy), US supermajors (Exxon, Chevron), and international (Shell) — all up 11–21%. This is a powerful, coordinated move suggesting rising oil prices, strong earnings expectations, or a flight to commodity-backed cash flow in an uncertain macro environment. This is where the smart money hid during the broader selloff.? Fertilizers & Agriculture — ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ StandoutCF Industries +24.00%CF Industries' +24% is the second-best performer of the month. As a major nitrogen fertilizer producer, this likely reflects commodity price strength and global food security concerns — possibly tied to supply chain disruptions or geopolitical tensions affecting agricultural inputs. A massive, conviction move.? Semiconductors & Tech Hardware — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ StrongMarvell +26.90% | Arm +21.88% | Dell +11.58%Marvell leads the entire list at +26.90% — impressive given the brutal month most tech names had. Arm's +21.88% confirms that AI chip design remained a bright spot even as broader tech sold off. Dell's gain likely reflects data center/AI server demand. These names bucked the trend while peers like SMCI and Micron cratered.? Telecom Infrastructure — ⭐⭐⭐⭐ StrongCiena Corp +13.01%Ciena, a fiber networking equipment maker, quietly had a great month. This likely reflects AI-driven demand for network infrastructure upgrades — a less obvious but important beneficiary of the data center buildout.? Social Media — ⭐⭐⭐ NotableTwitter Inc +9.19%Twitter/X's near-10% monthly gain is interesting given it's now privately held — this listing may reflect a pre-acquisition share class or OTC trading. Worth taking with a grain of salt on data accuracy.? Overall Judgment of the WinnersThe monthly winners tell a very clear story: Energy and selective AI chips were the only places to hide. While the broader market was getting hammered (airlines -20%, defense -36%, consumer names -15%), investors rotated hard into oil & gas majors and commodity plays as a defensive move. CF Industries and Occidental leading alongside Marvell and Arm suggests the market rewarded real cash flow and AI infrastructure while punishing speculative growth. This is a classic late-cycle / risk-off rotation pattern — and it's a meaningful warning signal about the broader market's health. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Gold is at the highs of the day, up $161 to $4670.The 3.5% really is the largest since Feb 5 and brings gold back to March 19 levels. The March 17-22 period saw four days of heavy selling in gold that led to a $900 decline from peak to trough. Since then it has stabilized around $4450 until today's bounce.Technically, the $4400 level remains the spot to watch. It held in the early-February rout but was broke on four separate occasions in late March. Notably though, it never closed below it and that could be a lifeline for the bulls. On the upside, the 50% retracement of the March range is $4758 and that could be an initial target for the bulls.Moreso than the technicals, the fundamentals are in full focus right now and gold is trading as a risk proxy. Early in the war, Turkey sold some of its gold reserves and the fear is that other emerging markets will be forced to dump reserves to protect currencies or to cover oil purchases. If there is some kind of resolution to the war, those risks will be significantly curtailed.Secondarily, gold has increasingly become a leveraged long and with all the volatility, those positions were pared. Initially, that was met by buyers but those dried up in mid-March. Since then though, we've seen a standstill and now some strength. It's clear that the strength will continue if there is a quick end to the war.What's less clear is what will happen if the war continues. My instinct is that it will fall but if oil prices don't rise too far because some ships are allowed through Hormuz, then it could make gains. If China gets involved in peace talks, that could also erode USD dominance in the reason and provide another reason for gold bids. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In the earlier post and video on the USDCHF, I spoke to the battle going on between the double tops a 0.8012 and the swing area between 0.79778 and 0.7989. The price did hold support near the high of the swing area - keeping the buyers in control.In the prior post, I wrote:A break above 0.8012 would open the door toward the next target near 0.8041, which includes the January 15 high and a topside channel trendlineOn the downside:A move back below 0.7978 would shift focus toward 0.7957, followed by the 200-day MA at 0.7945A break below that cluster would give sellers more confidence and force buyers to reassessBottom line:The bias remains bullish while above 0.7978, but buyers need to get through 0.8012 to extend the trend. Failure to do so risks a corrective pullback.The price higher moved up to 0.8042 but found willing sellers against that my from mid-January and also the topside channel trendline. Sellers against that level seen the price move back down toward the 0.8000 level.What next?The sellers against the high target are in play in hoping for the storyline to take the price back below the low of the swing area between 0.79778 and 0.7989. If that can be done, more momentum toward the 200 hour moving average at 0.79449 cannot be ruled out. For the buyers, the aforementioned swing area does remain a level to lean against the stop on a break below. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Axios reports that Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met today in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. At the end of the meeting they published a joint peace initiative that includes a five-point plan halting the use of force and opening the Strait of Hormuz.There are strong hints the US isn't opposed but no official word.Trump declined to comment on specifics but told Axios "negotiations with Iran are going well," which is about as close to a tacit endorsement as you'll get from this White House. Reading between the lines: Pakistan has been the key US-Iran mediator throughout this conflict, and they wouldn't be launching a joint initiative with Beijing if Washington had a problem with it.The five points are what you'd expect — ceasefire, peace talks, protection of energy infrastructure, restoration of shipping through the Strait, and a broader peace framework under the UN Charter. The energy infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz provisions are the ones crude traders will be zeroing in on.Note that none of these address Iran's 'demands', though it's unclear if they're in any position to be making demands.The bigger picture here is China positioning itself as a peacemaker in a US-launched war, which is a remarkable geopolitical development. Beijing has the leverage to make this stick — they're Iran's biggest trade partner and top oil buyer. Some of this was out earlier but we're getting more details now. Axios also reported:In a brief phone call, President Trump told me "the negotiations with Iran are going well." Asked specifically about the Pakistani-Chinese initiative, Trump didn't criticize it but simply reiterated that the diplomacy was going wellSo that's that and clearly the market is buying into it with the S&P 500 up 2.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We will not accept a ceasefire but rather seek a complete end to the war, not in Iran alone but in the entire regionWe have not responded to the US proposals, nor submitted any counter-proposals or conditions."Have received text messages from Witkoff, that doesn't mean we're negotiatingThe Strait of Hormuz is completely open and closed only to those who fight usThere will be difficulties in rebuilding trust with neighbors but we're confident we willSays Tehran ready for ground confrontationThis doesn't sound like anything new as it's in-line with what's been said for weeks.On the US side though, there are more murmurs that they're confident in ending the war. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country is ready to end the war, but only if there are guarantees against future attacks. This isn't particularly new as it's been Iran's position for awhile. There was a WSJ report about security guarantees late last week and there has been talk that China has been contacted to provide the guarantees (no word on whether they're willing) or possibly Pakistan.Since early March, he laid out 'three pillars' for peace, which were the recognition of "legitimate rights" like peaceful nuclear rights, reparations, and firm international guarantees.The difference now is that we've heard it directly from the President, which may be a communication strategy change that is laying the groundwork, or the public acceptance, for a deal. One potential issue is that Pezeshkian may not speak for the IRGC or the military. Americans often hear 'President' and think of it in the US context but decisions on missile strikes or ending the war belong to the Supreme Leader and the IRGC and the President's office is often relegated to protocol and ceremony.Still, it's validation that the US is actually speaking to Iranian officials and that there is some progress towards an end to the war. Increasingly, it looks like the April 6 deadline that Trump set could actually work. At the same time, Iran seems to have halted strikes on the energy infrastructure of neighboring states and both sides are mostly focused on military targets.It's all so precarious though as one bomb or phone call could change everything. In terms of the market, the S&P 500 is up 2.5%.Some of the biggest gainers:United Airlines +7.8%Carnival Cruise Lines +7.2%META +6.8%Freeport-McMoran +6.5%Intel +6.0% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Schmid is a known hawk and doesn't vote until 2028 so his comments don't carry too much weight:Can't be complacent about inflation expectationsFed must follow through with policy action to validate medium-term and long-term expectationsCan't assume oil price inflation will be transitoryHigher energy prices will increase inflation, including core inflationUS economic resilience should not be underestimatedExpected modest drag from sustained higher oil pricesFor a hawk, this isn't exactly screaming from the rooftops and it's why the market has reversed course after briefly pricing in rate hikes. Pricing now shows about a 30% chance of a single cut by December. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Iran (President Pezeshkian - comments are unconfirmed): Says Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks Accusations against US/Israel: Calls military actions unprecedented crimes and violations of international law Claims Iran engaged in good-faith talks before being attacked Regional criticism: Says countries hosting U.S. bases failed to prevent their use for attacks on Iran Stated solution: End to aggression as the path forward Iran willing to end conflict if security guarantees are provided Message to Europe: Urges Europe to abandon its current approach Calls for professional engagement aligned with international lawIn other headline news that is not so good is: Iran threat (via Fars News): Could target UAE’s Fujairah port and key oil pipeline Trigger: If UAE continues supporting U.S. and Israeli attacks Objective: Disrupt UAE’s bypass route to the Strait of HormuzEarlier reports (unconfirmed): Iran warned UAE that Fujairah port and Hormuz-linked pipeline could be targeted Condition: If attacks against Iran continueUS stocks have moved, extending the gains:Dow industrial average is up thousand 29 points or 2.27%. S&P index is up 162 points or 2.55%. NASDAQ index is up 675 points or 3.27%.US yields are moving lower with the tenured now down 5 basis points at 4.292%. The 2-year yield is down 6.2 basis points at 3.768%Oil prices have move lower with the price is trading at $101. Although off the highs and now negative on the day, the price remains above the $100 level.The USD has moved to new lows.EURUSD: The EURUSD moved above its 200 hour moving average at 1.1541 and reached a new high of 1.1559. The price is currently trading back near the 200 hour moving average. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD initially rode the wave of dollar selling into the U.S. session, pushing higher as broader USD weakness helped lift the pair. However, that momentum faded quickly, and buying interest dried up, leading to a reversal. The pair has since rotated back toward unchanged on the day, currently trading near 1.3180 after reaching a high of 1.3264.From a technical perspective, the upside move ran out of steam just ahead of a key resistance zone between 1.3272 and 1.3282 (see red numbered circles on the chart above). That area is not just a swing level—it is now reinforced by the falling 100-hour moving average, which is converging near the top of that zone. This confluence increases the importance of that resistance area, making it a critical hurdle for buyers.For the bullish case to regain traction: The price needs to break and stay above 1.3272–1.3282 And importantly, reclaim the falling 100-hour moving average Without that, rallies risk being viewed as corrective rather than directionalOn the downside, the focus shifts back toward today’s earlier low at 1.3159, which marked the lowest level since late November 2025. That move brought the pair into a broader daily swing area between 1.3138 and 1.3178, a zone that is now acting as a key risk-defining support level.Stay within/above this zone = buyers still have a footholdBreak below = bearish bias increases, with traders targeting a move toward the November lows near 1.3000Bottom line: The pair is caught between strong resistance above and critical support below. Buyers had their chance but couldn’t extend. Now the focus shifts to whether support can hold—or if sellers take control and push toward the next leg lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY has rotated lower after failing above the 160.00 level, a key psychological and technical barrier. Recall, the pair broke above that level on Friday, reaching a high of 160.455, but the breakout lacked follow-through.Yesterday, the price moved lower and tested an upward sloping trendline, where buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher. However, that bounce ran into resistance again near 160.00, with today’s Asian session high stalling just below at 159.959, within a prior swing area.That failure to extend higher gave sellers the green light.The pair turned back down, initially finding support at the trendline, but that support eventually gave way. The price broke below the 200-hour moving average at 159.19, and extended toward the next downside target near 158.81–158.90.The pair is now trading between the 200-hour MA (159.19) and that downside swing area, making this a critical zone:Below the 200-hour MA = sellers remain in control, with downside momentum building Next targets: 158.89, then 158.55Back above 159.19 = sellers lose momentum, and the bias shifts more neutral Bottom line: Sellers are making a play after the failed break above 160.00. The key now is whether they can keep the price below the 200-hour moving average and build momentum lower. If they do, the door opens for a deeper correction. If not, this becomes another failed downside extension in a choppy range.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.