RBNZ seen on hold as it navigates oil-driven inflation shock while signalling patience on policy tightening.Due at 0200 GMT / 2200 US Eastern time Summary:RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% amid energy-driven inflation shock Policymakers likely to look through near-term inflation but watch for persistence Communication to balance avoiding overtightening vs maintaining inflation credibility Domestic slack seen limiting second-round inflation risks No new forecasts, but guidance may hint at higher inflation and weaker growth Internal MPC split likely on inflation persistence and policy path Market pricing for multiple hikes seen as excessive; Westpac expects just oneThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% at its April 8 Monetary Policy Review, according to Westpac, with policymakers opting for caution as they assess the inflation shock stemming from higher global energy prices.The central bank is likely to signal continuity in its policy approach, closely reflecting recent guidance from Governor Breman. That guidance emphasised a willingness to “look through” the immediate, first-round impact of higher oil prices on inflation, while remaining alert to any signs that those price pressures become embedded in wages and broader pricing behaviour. In effect, the Bank is expected to tolerate a temporary spike in headline inflation but stand ready to tighten policy if second-round effects threaten to push inflation persistently above target.The communication challenge for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be to strike a careful balance. On one hand, the Bank will want to avoid triggering an unnecessary tightening in financial conditions by overreacting to what is fundamentally a supply shock. On the other, it must maintain credibility by reinforcing its readiness to act if inflation expectations begin to drift higher over the medium term.Much of the uncertainty centres on the duration and severity of the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is driving the energy shock. A prolonged disruption would likely deepen supply chain damage and sustain upward pressure on prices, increasing the risk of persistent inflation. However, domestic conditions in New Zealand may act as a mitigating factor. The economy is still operating below capacity, and recent GDP data has been soft, suggesting businesses may struggle to fully pass through higher costs without dampening demand—potentially limiting second-round inflation effects.While no updated forecasts are expected at this meeting, the RBNZ may offer early signals about its evolving outlook ahead of the May Monetary Policy Statement. That could include acknowledging stronger near-term inflation and weaker growth prospects. Westpac, for example, expects inflation to peak around 4.1% this year while growth slows to roughly 1.9%, reflecting the drag from higher energy costs and weaker confidence.The meeting will also feature the RBNZ’s first post-decision press conference, part of a broader push to enhance transparency. Meanwhile, the Record of Meeting is likely to reveal differing views within the MPC, particularly around how persistent inflation risks may become and how quickly policy should respond.Overall, the Bank is expected to lean against current market pricing for multiple rate hikes in 2026, signalling a more measured path. Westpac continues to expect just one hike this year, with more substantial tightening deferred until 2027 once the economic impact of the energy shock becomes clearer. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran’s top joint military commandSays it will deal with infrastructure of U.S. and its allies in the region in a way that will deprive them from the region’s oil and gas for years Says it will continue attacks on military, security and economic infrastructure of Israel and U.S. in the region with greater intensity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump: A whole civilization will die tonightTrump says in 'heated negotiations' with IranReport: Iran 'positively reviewing' the request for a ceasefirePakistan asks Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks and Iran to open Hormuz for 2 weeksIranian media warns residents to stay off bridges in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAEVance on Iran: Very shortly, this war will concludeHopes for an Iran deal perk upFed's Goolsbee nothing in Federal Reserve act says make the stock/Pres. happyUS February durable goods orders -1.4% vs -1.0% expectedFed's Williams: Iran war will drive up headline inflationTehran Times says diplomatic channels are still open, deletes earlier postNY Fed one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.4% from 3.0%The US treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.897%Meta advertisers are reducing spending and their AI ad rollout has been flawed - ScotiaIran's Kharg Island targeted with several strikes, Iran's Kashan railway bridge hit tooSenior Iranian source: Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the USMarkets:WTI crude oil down $0.15 to $112.26 after reaching as high as $117.63US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.30%Gold up $60 to $4708S&P 500 up 0.1%AUD leads, USD lagsThe day started off with a grim message from Trump talking about destroying Iran's civilization. That note led to some consternation for Trump, even from within his own party. The mood darkened further on headlines from the semi-official Tehran Times that said diplomatic channels had been severed.But shortly afterwards the Tehran Times deleted the post and said there was still communication and several reports started to highlight talks. Most-optimistic was JD Vance saying the war wound end soon, though that was conditioned by Iran "doing the right thing" so it didn't exactly move the needle.The real shift came late in the day on a report from Reuters saying that Iran was reviewing a ceasefire proposal positively. That proposal appears to be one from Pakistan calling for a two week path to a permanent end to the war. With that, stocks and oil reversed and Treasury yields hit the lows of the day.The whole world is now holding its breath ahead of the 8 pm ET deadline. With that, the next few hours will be pivotal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The major US indices are closing mixed with the Dow industrial average lower, the S&P and NASDAQ index are marginally higher. The declines for the day were you raised after reports that Pakistan was brokering a cease fire deal. Pres. Trump said that negotiations were heated. The proposed deal calls for 2 weeks of kicking the can down the road.Looking at the major indices Dow industrial average - 85.42 points or -0.18% at 46584.46S&P index +5.02 points or 0.08% at 6616.85NASDAQ index +21.51 points or 0.10% at 22017.85At session lows, the:Dow was down -455.11 points.S&P index was down -77.28 pointsNASDAQ was down -385.34 points.Some of the winners and losers included : This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Eyes are once again on the war makers. The current state of play is Pakistan has proposed a 2 week ceasefire to them both. Under consideration is the word from both.Trump's deadline is 8pm US Eastern time, 0000 GMT. Apart from that the RBNZ is expected on hold today. I'll have more to come on this separately. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US stocks have erased their declines. The S&P is up 5.02 points or 0.08%. The NASDAQ index is up 21.51 points or 0.10%.Crude oil is now lower with the May contract down -$0.12 or -0.12% at $112.40. The bond yields are also in negative territory with the 10 year down-2.2 basis points in the two-year down -3.5 basis points.The USD is lower.In the video above, I take a look at the moves in the major currencies adverse at the US dollar. What has the moves to the downside done from a technical perspective? Where are the next targets? What are the new risk defining levels now? I go through it all for the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump was asked about Iran and said he "can't comment" because he's in "heated negotiations" with Iran.At this point it's clear that negotiations are ongoing but we're only four hours away from a brutal escalation. The market closed with a positive note so hopefully that can continue into tomorrow.More: Trump says he's about to be briefed on negotiations.Update: The Wall Street Journal reports that US and Arab officials say talks are now centering around getting a deadline extension, not a deal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There are some positive ticks on this., which cites a senior official from Iran talking to Reuters.In terms of the two week proposal, White House press secretary Karoline Leavit tells Axios: The President has been made been aware of the proposal, and a response will come.We have seen the S&P 500 rise to 6606 from 6585 on the headline but 'positively reviewing' it is a strange turn of phrase. Does it mean reviewing it or is positive about accepting it? It certainly sounds like good news but it's a really dangerous moment so we will have to see.I have some faith that JD Vance was laying the groundwork for a deal when he said that the military objectives were complete and a deal was near earlier today. That said, I've also seen videos of bombs striking bridges in Iran today and there are plenty of reports of Iran striking back as well.It's extremely tough to have any reasoned conviction about what will come next but as an optimist, I'd hope we can end this war and move on to trading on the economy or corporate fundamentals instead of this. It has been an ugly series of non-stop headlines, leaks and misinformation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Shariff:Says diplomatic efforts are progressing steadilyRequests Trump extend the deadline for two weeksRequests Iran open the Strait for two weeks as a goodwill gestureUrges all sides to observe a ceasefire for two weeks to allow diplomacy and achieve a conclusive termination of the warSome positive movements in markets on this but Iran has dug in previously to say that it won't open Hormuz for a temporary ceasefire and only wants a conclusion to the war with guarantees.Here is the full message:Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region. To make this work, either Trump will need to back off on his 'deadline' or Iran will need to back down on opening the Strait. Politically, it's tough for either side. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The obvious target of such an attack would be the King Fahd Causeway, which is the main artery between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, with millions of crossings each year. Bahrain’s hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment sectors are heavily dependent on visits from Saudi Arabia, along with many jobs that rely on cross-border commuting.The series of bridges and islands spans 25 km and is the only land link between the two and often handles 60,000 vehicles per day. If destroyed it would virtually eliminate the tourist economy from Bahrain, which is 6-8% of GDP.Another notable target would be the Jubail causeway. It serves the Jubail industrial city, which is the home of much of Saudi Arabia's petrochemicals industry. It's a 12km span that connects to Abu Ali Island and offshore facilities.Another notable bridge is the Wadi Leban Bridge in Riyadh, which is 763 meters long and contains a six-lane highway. If it were destroyed, it would be catastrophic for Riyadh logistics and daily life, leading to around-the-clock gridlock.In Abu Dhabi, the Sheikh Zayed Bridge is 842 meters long and is the gateway to Abu Dhabi island from the north east. Three other bridges connect it and severing those would be a major blow.Dubai already has major traffic problems so destroying any of the bridges on Dubai creek would be problematic, though the UAE is famous for its construction prowess so it would likely be rebuilt quickly.In terms of market moves, the mood is worsening as Tansim cites a military official who said:"If Trump wants to fall into a hole with his madness, we have prepared a black hole for him from which it will be impossible for him to get out"That has stock markets sagging back towards the lows. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD is coiling as the clock ticks toward the 8 PM peace deadline, with price action tightening into a classic consolidation pattern. The pair remains capped below a downward-sloping trendline and the 100-hour moving average, and although buyers briefly pushed above both levels today, the move quickly failed—keeping sellers in control for now. At the same time (and on the downside) a series of higher lows has formed an upward-sloping trendline, narrowing the range and increasing the odds of a breakout either higher or lower. For buyers to take control, they need to break and stay above a key cluster between 0.5712 and 0.5726, which includes the 100-hour moving average, the descending trendline, and the 200-hour moving average. A sustained move above that zone would shift the short-term bias higher, with the next target at the 38.2% retracement at 0.5759, an area that also aligns with prior price action from late April and last week.On the downside, a break to new lows would tilt the bias back toward sellers, opening the door for a move toward 0.5605, followed by the November low at 0.5575.Key levels:Upside: 0.5712–0.5726 (MA/trendline cluster), then 0.5759 Downside: Below recent lows → 0.5605, then 0.5575 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though a deal by Trump's 8 pm ET deadline remains a "longshot", Axios writes. This is the latest in the non-stop series of 'leaks' on the US/Israel-Iran war and it cites an Israeli official a "two other sources" with knowledge of talks. It comes after the Tehran Times deleted a post saying that the diplomatic track had been cut off and replaced it with a message saying that talks were still possible.A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from "can we get there?" to "can we get there by 8 o'clock tonight?"Trump himself hinted he could extend the deadline when speaking with Fox earlier today. That would be the fourth extension from him. "The key challenges at the moment are meeting Iran's demand for a strong guarantee that the U.S. and Israel won't just resume the war after a pause," Axios writes. That's been a consistent talking point from Iran and the main resistance to any type of ceasefire to negotiate. If the straight reopens, it would allow for the unblocking of oil and they would lose much of the leverage they've built up.As the White House press secretary said, only Trump knows "where things stand and what he will do".Or maybe not just Trump:Marco Rubio did earlier drop a soft hint about an announcement later today and JD Vance said the US had accomplished almost all of its war goals and "very shortly the war is going to conclude."The S&P 500 has halved today's decline and is down 30 points to 6581. WTI crude oil remains 2.7% higher at $115.48 but is down from the peak of $117.63.You can't help but shake the feeling that if a deal is coming, someone will be front-running the trade on inside information. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

High-yield 3.897%WI level at the time of the auction 3.909% Tail of -1.2 basis points versus 6 auction average of -0.3 basis points . Bid to cover 2.68X vs 6 auction average of 2.66XDealers 13.28% versus 6 auction average of 12.3%.Directs 11.9% versus 6 auction average of 25.8%.Indirects 74.8% versus 6 auction average of 61.9%The international buyers were the heavy lifters in the auction with them taking nearly 75% of the auction well above the 6 auction average of 61.9%. The tail of -1.2 basis points is indicative of strong bidding. The bid to cover was near the average suggesting that the international buyers were the big participant, but the domestic direct bidders were much less than average. The dealer takedown was a little bit above the average as well suggesting a one sided international buying market.Auction grade: B This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says: Nothing in Federal Reserve act says the Fed should make the stock and Pres. happy.If actively talking about taking away the independence of the Fed, that is a bad idea.Inflation could come roaring back. Oil prices rising is a stagflationary shock.Fed is now in an uncomfortable situation, no obvious cookbook for Fed. My immediate concern is stagflationary shock of oil prices before the tariff–price shop has gone away.Job market stable but not great.Cautious, nervous about economy. The longer you go with high inflation, the more it gets ingrained into the economyChicago Fed President Goolsbee leaned slightly hawkish, stressing the importance of Fed independence and warning that inflation risks remain elevated. He cautioned that inflation could “come roaring back,” particularly with rising oil prices posing a stagflationary shock, and emphasized the danger of inflation becoming entrenched if it persists too long. Overall, his comments highlight a continued focus on price stability despite economic uncertainty This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $58 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction results will compared to the 6 auction average for the major components. Below are the last values at the last 3 year note auction followed by the 6 auction average.High Yield: 3.579% (6-auction avg. 3.579%) Tail: 1.1 bps (6-auction avg. -0.3 bps) Bid-to-Cover: 2.55x (6-auction avg. 2.66x) Dealers: 19.5% (6-auction avg. 12.3%) Directs: 20.7% (6-auction avg. 25.8%) Indirects: 59.8% (6-auction avg. 61.9%)What do each of these components representTail: The difference between the auction yield and the when-issued (WI) yield just before the auction → Positive tail: weaker demand (investors demanded a higher yield) → Negative tail (stop-through): strong demand Bid-to-Cover: Total bids divided by the amount sold → Higher ratio: stronger overall demand and competition → Lower ratio: softer demand Dealers (Primary Dealers): Banks obligated to bid and take down supply if others don’t → Higher dealer share: weaker demand from real investors (dealers had to absorb more) → Lower dealer share: healthier auction Directs: Domestic buyers placing bids directly (e.g., mutual funds, pensions, hedge funds) → Higher directs: solid domestic real-money demand → Lower directs: less domestic participation Indirects: Typically foreign buyers (central banks, sovereign funds, global investors) → Higher indirects: strong foreign demand (generally bullish for Treasuries) → Lower indirects: weaker global appetite Bottom line:Strong auction: Stop-through/low tail + high bid-to-cover + low dealer take + strong directs/indirects Weak auction: Positive tail + low bid-to-cover + high dealer share + weak indirect demand** This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The White House says, only the president knows on Iran negotiations. The Iranian regime has until 8 PM to make a deal.In other news, :The IRGC commander declares new phase of reprisal attacks against aggressors, and warned that if the US crosses redlines, the IRGC's response will be extend far beyond the region Saudi Arabia is reporting a phone call between 70 crown prints and Prime Minister Pakistan, in the midst of the Pakistani attempt to bring about some kind of cease-fire in the 90th minute, just before Trump's ultimatum expires.Axios is reporting that progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between US and Iran, the reaching a cease-fire deal by a p.m. deadline still looks like a long shot.Israel military is on standby ready to launch strikes on a (ahead of US 8 PM deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD is pushing higher, with buyers taking control after leaning against key support in the European session. The pair held firmly above its 100-hour moving average (1.15447), with the session low reaching 1.15473 just ahead of the North American open. That hold was technically significant—it gave buyers the green light to step back in and drive the price higher.From a technical perspective, that bounce helps define the risk on the downside. The 100-hour moving average remains the first key support level, followed by the 200-hour moving average and an upward sloping trendline near 1.15313. As long as the price stays above this cluster, buyers maintain control in the short term. A break below that zone would be needed to shift the bias back toward the sellers.On the topside, the pair is now approaching the next key resistance targets. The first comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.1606. Just above that sits a confluence of resistance near 1.16169, where a downward sloping trendline intersects with a prior swing level. This area is a critical barometer—if broken, it would signal that buyers are gaining further traction.A move above that zone would open the door for a run toward the March 23 high near 1.1638, followed by another swing level at 1.16445. Beyond that, traders would target the 50% retracement at 1.1667, with a key cluster of longer-term resistance defined by the 100- and 200-day moving averages between 1.1673 and 1.1684.For now, the story is clear: buyers are in control above the moving average support, with momentum building toward key resistance levels overhead. The next move will depend on whether price can break through those resistance zones or rotate back lower toward support.Key technical levelsUpside targets:1.1606 – 38.2% retracement 1.16169 – trendline + swing level (key resistance) 1.1638 – March 23 high 1.16445 – swing level 1.1667 – 50% retracement 1.1673 – 1.1684 – 100 & 200 day MAs Downside support:1.15447 – 100-hour MA (near-term pivot) 1.15313 – 200-hour MA + trendline (key support zone)1.1484 to 1.1491 swing area- This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

WTI crude oil is at the highs of the day and near the highs of the war. It's up $4.85 to $117.27 in what would be the highest close since 2022.Prices have jumped about $1 in the past few minutes as the oil market continues to flag major risks. Those risks aren't at all encapsulated in the stock market, which continues to indicate that the war will be a short-term problem.The pricing isn't entirely disconnected because if you look further out the oil curve, prices do come down. July WTI is up $1.66 to $91.90 today while December crude is up $1.38 to $75.24. If we can get back to around $75, it's not even close to a full retracement of the pre-war $60ish level but it's not a shock to the economy like $117.So I would strongly suggest that if you're looking for clues from the oil market on war sentiment, to make sure you look at the entire curve rather than just the front month.Some good news is trickling out now as the Tehran Times deleted an earlier post that said that diplomatic channels had been closed. In its place, it wrote that said diplomatic channels with the US are not closed. So that's a bit of good news but at the same time, every report says that chances of a deal before 8 pm ET are low.The bullish case for oil is that this is a classic escalation trap. If/when Trump bombs the power plants and energy infrastructure then there is no going back. Iran has pledged to attack regional energy infrastructure and that will ensure many months before anything can be repaired.As for Hormuz, we don't know if Iran can enforce a blockade or for how long but we're more likely to find out if the US escalates.The nightmare scenario is that the US ends up in a multi-year land war against a country of 90 million that's dug into the mountains. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The semi-official Tehran Times says that the diplomatic and indirect channels for talks with Washington have not been completely closed. It's a reversal from an earlier post that said diplomatic channels were cut off. It also deleted the earlier post.The latest post says "diplomatic and indirect channels of talks with the US are not closed."Notably, a WSJ report just 47 minutes ago said direct communication had been cut off, citing "Middle Eastern officials".Risk assets have come off the lows on this but it's not a big bounce. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

One-year inflation 3.4% vs 3.0% priorThree-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.0% priorFive-year inflation unchanged at 3.0%Year-ahead gasoline price inflation at the highest since 2022Expected house price index rise 3.3% vs 3.0% priorHouseholds more pessimistic about current and future financial situationsThis is obviously going in the wrong direction but it's not an alarmist kind of number. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.