Prior 50.6Key details:New export orders rise for first time in four years Business optimism at highest level since before 2024 Autumn budget Comment:Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “UK manufacturing made a solid start to 2026, showing encouraging resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions. Rates of output and order book growth accelerated, while new export business rose for the first time in four years, with Europe, China and the US the main recipients. "There was also a positive bounceback in business confidence, which rose to its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn budget, as manufacturers focussed on opportunities lying ahead despite persistent concerns about the geopolitical environment, Government policy and tariff tensions. "There was also encouraging news on the jobs front. Although the strongest rise in new business for almost four years was insufficient to fully quell reductions to staff headcounts, the rate of cutting slowed to its weakest since job losses started 15 months ago. Cost pressures are creeping higher though, as the pass through of the increased Minimum Wage and employer NI contributions continue to work through the supply chain alongside the rising costs for commodities such as metals.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.8Euro area manufacturing activity ticks up in January, moving closer to the growth threshold. Of note, manufacturing output increased in January for the tenth time over the past eleven months. However, the mood was slightly dampened by a fall in new factory orders since December. Overall, job losses also gathered pace but at least business confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022 while pricing power appeared to be limited amongst manufacturers in the region. HCOB notes that:“Some progress can be seen in the manufacturing sector, but it’s happening at a snail’s pace. After dropping in December, production ticked up slightly at the start of the year, essentially continuing the growth path we saw between spring and fall last year. Order intakes haven’t been much help, though — they fell again, even if not quite as sharply as at the end of last year. Right now, it’s hard to say what might put an end to the ongoing rundown of inventories, which makes a strong shortterm upswing rather unlikely. Still, when looking twelve months ahead, companies are feeling a bit more upbeat than last month about expanding their production. “There are some encouraging signs from Greece, France, and Germany. In Greece, growth in the manufacturing sector has picked up notably. In France, expansion has also gained momentum, and in Germany, December’s sharp slump has given way to only a mild decline. Italy, in contrast, paints a less optimistic picture, with the industry stuck in contraction territory. Next door in Austria, conditions have worsened significantly compared with the previous month. Spain, which had been in pole position among the four largest eurozone economies for most of the last two years, has seen its manufacturing industry decline for two straight months. All in all, this highly uneven picture across the eurozone is not exactly laying the groundwork for a sustained upswing. “The noticeable rise in cost inflation stands out. The sharp increase in natural gas prices in January, and to a slightly lesser extent higher oil prices, likely played a role here. The spike in energy costs could prove temporary, as it seems largely tied to the unusually cold winter in Europe and the US. At the same time, a range of industrial metals became more expensive in January compared with the previous month, which, in itself, is not necessarily a bad sign, as it can point to stronger global industrial demand. But for companies relying on metals like copper, aluminium, or nickel, this - together with pricier energy - puts pressure on profit margins. They don’t appear to have the ability to raise their selling prices accordingly. In fact, their prices seem to be largely flat.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior was 47.0Key findings:Input cost inflation ticks up to 37-month highComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “This smells a bit like a recovery could be underway. Output has rebounded rather swiftly from the drop in December, optimism about future output has risen from an already high level, and new orders have ticked up a bit. Hopes for a broader recovery are supported by general anecdotal evidence. Manufacturers seem to see opportunities to pivot toward defencerelated production, where demand is rising amid geopolitical tensions and increased public spending on military goods. The situation remains fragile, though. Companies are still drawing down their inventories at speed, and the backlog of work is shrinking even faster than at the end of last year. “Input prices are climbing again. Much of this seems tied to the sharp jump in natural gas and oil prices, both driven up by cold weather across Europe and the US. Prices for metals like copper, nickel, and aluminium have also run higher in January compared to December. Companies, however, have struggled to pass these cost pressures on to customers. At best, they’ve managed to slow the ongoing three month decline in output prices, nothing more. “Firms are continuing to shed jobs at a brisk pace. This likely reflects a combination of productivity enhancing measures and a response to the weak demand environment of the past several years. Those companies that have streamlined their production processes may find themselves well positioned if demand does pick up over the course of this year, as hinted by the improvement in the future output index.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Monday kicks off with manufacturing PMI releases for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S., while Tuesday, attention will turn to Australia with the RBA’s monetary policy announcement. In the U.S., Tuesday will bring the JOLTS job openings report and New Zealand will publish its employment change q/q, the unemployment rate, and the labour cost index q/q figures. Wednesday brings inflation data from the Eurozone while the U.S. will see the release of the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM services PMI. On Thursday, the spotlight will be on monetary policy announcements from both the BoE in the U.K. and the ECB in the euro area. The U.S. will also publish the weekly unemployment claims. Friday wraps up the week with labour market data from Canada, including employment change and the unemployment rate. In the U.S., average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change, the unemployment rate, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations will be released. In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM manufacturing PMI is 48.5, up from 47.9 previously. This week’s data is expected to show some improvement in the manufacturing sector, as recent strength in durable goods points to a rebound in business investment. That said, the broader outlook remains subdued, with overall factory activity still lacking clear direction and facing persistent headwinds.At this week’s meeting, the RBA is expected to deliver a 25 bps rate hike, lifting the cash rate to 3.85%. The main driver behind the move is inflation, which remains above target and has proven more persistent than initially anticipated. Analysts believe that, following this meeting, the Bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, rather than signaling a series of consecutive hikes. The accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy will update the Bank’s economic outlook, incorporating firmer inflation outcomes alongside signs of resilient consumer demand and a stable labour market, Westpac analysts said. Forecast assumptions for interest rates and the exchange rate are also likely to shift, reflecting a market outlook that now implies fewer rate cuts than were expected late last year. In New Zealand, the consensus for employment growth is 0.3% q/q versus 0.0% previously. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3%, while the labour cost index is forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.5% prior. Analysts argue that employment gains are broadly keeping pace with population growth. This level is likely to represent the peak for the current cycle, with any further improvement expected to be gradual. With spare capacity still evident in the labour market, wage growth pressures should remain subdued in the near term, Westpac analysts said. In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM services PMI is 53.6, down from 54.4 previously. The services sector remains under pressure, and a meaningful improvement is not expected in the near term. Overall, the sector appears to be holding steady rather than gaining momentum, as hiring remains subdued while consumer demand continues to hold up. In the U.K., at this week’s meeting the BoE is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% and potentially signal a rate cut for the March meeting. As a reminder, the Bank adopted a more dovish stance in December, delivering a 25 bps rate cut. Since then, economic activity has been firmer than anticipated, with improvements in GDP and retail sales, while PMI trends have also come in stronger than expected. On the inflation front, pressures have continued to moderate, although core inflation remains elevated. That said, softer wage growth points to more subdued inflation dynamics in the near term. At this week’s meeting, the ECB is expected to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%. Recent Eurozone data have been supportive, with fourth-quarter GDP growth printing at 0.3% q/q, pointing to ongoing economic resilience. Annual growth came in at 1.3%, while the unemployment rate edged down to a new record low of 6.2%. However, the provisional GDP release lacks detail on the underlying drivers of growth, which limits its immediate policy relevance. In the absence of clearer evidence on demand conditions and inflation dynamics, Wells Fargo analysts expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged through the end of the year. In Canada, the consensus for the employment change is +7.2K versus +8.2K previously, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 6.8%. Employment is forecast to rise only modestly, following an unusually strong run of job gains in December. While month-to-month outcomes remain volatile, slower population growth is materially reducing the pace of job creation needed to stabilize the labour market. In addition, a pullback in labour force participation is likely to limit available labour supply in January. These demographic trends are expected to persist through the year, implying that even modest job losses could still be consistent with a steady or even declining unemployment rate, RBC analysts said. Forward-looking indicators remain mixed: business surveys point to subdued hiring intentions and easing wage pressures, while online job postings suggest a more constructive demand backdrop. Although trade-sensitive sectors such as manufacturing continue to lag, a stabilizing external environment and resilient domestic demand should support a gradual recovery in hiring, with the unemployment rate projected to drift lower toward 6.3% by year-end. In the U.S., the consensus for average hourly earnings is a 0.3% m/m increase vs. 0.3% prior. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 67K, up from 50K previously, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect a slightly stronger 80K increase in employment, though they note that the rebound is partly driven by fewer layoffs in seasonally sensitive sectors following lighter holiday hiring last year. The unemployment rate is still expected to hold at 4.4%, but downside risks remain, as labor-demand indicators, including the Conference Board’s labor differential and the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers, are hovering near cycle lows. Wage growth is expected to continue moderating, a rise of average hourly earnings by only 0.3% pushing down the year-over-year pace to around 3.6%. Looking ahead, the 2025 benchmark revisions are likely to show that last year’s hiring was overstated, with average monthly payroll growth revised down from about 49K to roughly 20K–30K. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.7French manufacturing activity picked up to start the year with the headline reading being a 43-month high. After a seven-month spell of decline, manufacturing output rose across France in January. The growth was attributed by firms to improving market conditions and restocking. The good news also is that employment conditions rose once more, marking back-to-back months of jobs growth. HCOB notes that:“France’s manufacturing industry is starting the year on a firmer footing. The headline index continued to rise and now points to growth for the second consecutive month – the first time this has happened in almost four years. Whether this truly marks the end of the sector’s prolonged period of weakness remains to be seen. In January, stronger production dynamics were the main driver supporting the headline index. Panellists attributed this partly to improving market conditions and partly to inventory building. However, without a significant improvement in new orders, it would be premature to declare a sustained recovery. Although the trade environment remains unsettled by existing tariffs, the reverberations from new U.S. announcements are far less disruptive than they were a year ago. At the same time, Europe’s efforts to strengthen its strategic autonomy in defence policy are gaining traction. Together, these two key developments could provide a boost to the manufacturing sector in 2026. “Additional signs of stabilisation are emerging in purchasing and input stocks. French manufacturers have increased both their purchasing volumes and their stocks of inputs simultaneously – again for the first time in almost four years. Against this backdrop, business expectations have stabilised over the past three months and now stand above their long‑term average. Meanwhile, supplier delivery times extended, reflecting a mix of factors such as adverse weather, material shortages, and delays on international shipments. “On the price front, input prices are rising only moderately, driven primarily by higher costs for metals and metal products. Pricing power, however, appears limited as manufacturers lowered their selling prices again, as has been the case in recent months, likely in an effort to maintain sales volumes amid intense competition. Prices for intermediate goods, in particular, have seen a marked decline.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 47.9Key findings:Softer falls in output and total new orders Outlook brightens as employment rises for first time in four months Charge inflation returns as cost burdens rise at fastest rate in over three yearsComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italian manufacturing began 2026 still in contraction, yet January’s survey data offered tentative signs that the sector may be edging toward firmer ground. The headline index rose slightly to 48.1 from 47.9, marking a second month below the 50 threshold but signalling a slower pace of decline. The softer falls in both output and new orders suggest that the intense weakness seen late last year may be easing. Even so, demand remains fragile at home and abroad, with firms reporting cancellations and difficult market conditions. Export orders, excluding brief upticks in May and November 2025, continued their nearly three-year downtrend, though the latest fall was modest. “One of the most striking developments in January was the further intensification of cost pressures. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years, driven by broad-based increases across key raw materials including metals and wood. This pick-up in cost inflation fed through to selling prices, which climbed for the second time in three months. For now, charge inflation remains mild compared with input costs, but the shift back into price-raising territory points to the return of margin pressures. “In line with weaker order flows, firms scaled back their purchasing activity at a faster pace, contributing to slimmer input inventories. At the same time, there were signs of stabilisation in supply chains, with delivery times shortening for the first time since mid-2025. Employment provided a rare bright spot, rising for the first time in four months as firms hired mainly permanent staff, reflecting firmer expectations for the year ahead. This improved mood was also evident in the broader outlook, with business expectations strengthening markedly and reaching one of the highest levels in nearly four-and-a-half years, supported by expectations of sectoral recovery, borrowing cost cuts and new product initiatives.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we will get the final PMIs for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. The market reacts the most to new information, so the Flash data is more important than the final PMIs. Therefore, unless we get big deviations, the market reaction will likely be muted. The data is also not going to change anything for the respective central banks.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight will be the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index is expected to tick higher to 48.5 vs 47.9 prior. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose a two-month high, with the agency noting that ouptut growth was the highest since last August, and new orders increased after falling in December. Employment growth meanwhile slipped to the lowest since last July and output prices increased.This month could be pivotal for Fed's rate cuts expectations as we will get many top tier data points with the NFP and CPI being the main highlights. I mentioned how the latest selloff in the US Dollar wasn't backed by the fundamentals but more by "technical" things. The market is now pricing 55 bps of easing by year-end which could be wrong if we start to get stronger data. In such a scenario, traders will trim their rate cut bets and the greenback will have the tailwind to erase last month's losses. If we get soft data, on the other hand, we can expect the dollar to remain on the backfoot although it's unlikely that we'll see the same momentum.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS11:45 GMT/06:45 ET - BoE's Breeden (dovish - voter)17:30 GMT/12:30 ET - Fed's Bostic (hawkish - non voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.4%UK house prices inched a little higher to start the year after a bit of a drop at the tail end of 2025. The house price index (seasonally adjusted) moved up in January but the average house price (non-seasonally adjusted) was seen down slightly from £271,068 to £270,873. Again, that is to do with seasonal adjustment issues.The UK housing market can be summed up by one word last year, that being resilience. And perhaps 2026 will be the year of recovery, if anything else. Nationwide notes that:“The start of 2026 saw a slight pick-up in annual house price growth, which rose to 1.0% in January, after slowing to 0.6% in December. Prices increased by 0.3% month on month in January, after taking account of seasonal effects. “Housing market activity also dipped at the end of 2025, most likely reflecting uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the Budget. Nevertheless, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase remained close to the levels prevailing before the pandemic. “Housing market activity is likely to recover in the coming quarters, especially if the improving affordability trend seen last year (and explored further below) is maintained." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.5%German retail sales closes out the year with a marginal increase, with the December estimate also being 1.5% higher than the same month a year ago. Overall in 2025, retail sales were seen up 2.7% compared to 2024 in real terms. In nominal terms, that figure reflects a 3.8% growth in retail sales instead for the year of 2025.Looking at the breakdown for the year, food store sales were seen up 1.1% on the year while non-food store sales were up 3.7%. On the latter, the only drag was in textiles and clothing store sales (-0.8%) while other sub-divisions posted positive growth in terms of retail sales volumes for last year. The full breakdown can be seen below:All in all, it's a positive showing for Germany's retail sector despite more stubborn price pressures weighing in general. It's mostly seen in the services sector but spillover effects to correlate, so this is still a good development to note.That being said, Europe's largest economy is still a bit of a thorn in the side of the ECB in trying to manage policy setting. And that will continue to be the case in the early stages of 2026 as well. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. It isn't one that ties to any technical significance but the expiries could provide a bit of a floor for price action on any downside extensions later in the day.The currency pair is very much caught in a tussle now around its 200-hour moving average of 1.1853. A firm break below that will see the near-term bias shift to being more bearish instead. And amid the dollar's firmness as precious metals are still facing a volatile selling bout, we could see further dollar strength creep in to start the week.As such, that could keep some downside pressure on the pair in bringing about the expiries at the figure level. That's just about the only potential impact with other expiries being too far away to factor into the equation today.But as highlighted above, the main drivers of trading sentiment at the moment are broader market influences. That especially the risk selling and precious metals correction, driving up trader and investor nerves for now.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Over the weekend, Japan prime minister Takaichi spoke about the yen currency's weakness in saying that it has been beneficial for exporters. It's not the kind of bias you would want to hear from her especially in such a sensitive time. For one, it comes off as tone deaf amid households grappling with higher living costs. Secondly, it runs against the kind of pushback that the ministry of finance has been dishing out since the past two weeks.Naturally, Takaichi tried to walk back her comments in saying that she "does not favour either a weak or strong currency". But in a time like this, the damage has already been done and all it does is just feeds the beast.USD/JPY is now up just 0.1% on the day to around 154.90 but the high earlier touched 155.51. A firmer dollar amid all the volatile selling in precious metals is also helping to underpin the mood, with the currency pair now well off the lows last week near the 152.00 level. The latest rebound though is stalling a little now at the 200-hour moving average (blue line):So, that's a key line in the sand to watch out for. A break above that will see the near-term bias switch to being more bullish once again. And if that were to be the case, expect Tokyo officials to step in with stronger conviction soon enough to quell further speculative moves.For now, USD/JPY is also already trading back above its 100-day moving average of 153.86. So, that's another point in the win column for dip buyers after Tokyo authorities broke that hold last week after another suspected 'rate check'.But now that we're seeing the fading impact of the 'rate check' moves, is it time for actual intervention to come in? I wouldn't be surprised. The writing has already been on the wall since early last week already: As good a time as any for Japan to intervene?That being said, just be reminded that actual intervention may not have a lasting impact unless we see a material shift in fundamental drivers for the Japanese yen. And so far, it doesn't quite seem like anything is changing - not at least in the short-term. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Focuses on $70,900 to $72,645 Support ZoneKey takeaways for crypto traders and investorsBitcoin futures are down roughly 10%, extending a developing bearish structureOrder flow shows sellers in control, with buyers increasingly passiveRecent rebounds lacked acceptance and failed to repair market structureDownside risk remains elevated unless behavior changesThe $70,900 to $72,645 zone is the next key area for technical evaluationEther futures: I am watching the zone of $2110. If and when reached, I will be patiently watching the price reaction.Bitcoin technical analysis overviewBitcoin futures are under pressure to start the week, down roughly 10%, following weakness that developed over the weekend in the 24/7 spot market. From a bitcoin technical analysis perspective, the magnitude of the move is less important than how the decline unfolded.Rather than a sudden panic-driven sell-off, order flow shows that weakness had been building over time. Buyers gradually lost control of key reference levels, while sellers became more effective well before the downside acceleration became obvious on traditional price charts.This type of development often precedes larger directional moves and is a key reason why the broader bitcoin price prediction framework remains cautious.Weekly Market Opening Update: February 2, 2026The trading week has commenced with a defensive tone across major asset classes. As geopolitical premiums shift and industrial demand concerns linger, we are seeing a synchronized move toward volatility, particularly within the commodities and digital asset sectors.Energy: OPEC+ Stability and Fading Risk PremiumsThe crude oil market opened the week on the back foot following the latest policy signals from major producers. Oil opened lower after OPEC+ maintained its March output levels, choosing stability over intervention. This decision comes at a sensitive time; the "Iran risk premium" that had previously propped up prices is beginning to wobble. Without a fresh supply-side catalyst or a resurgence in geopolitical tensions, traders are increasingly focusing on the demand outlook, leading to a soft start for energy benchmarks this Monday.Precious Metals: Volatility Remains the Primary DriverThe safe-haven sector is providing little relief for those seeking calm. Precious metals remain in the spotlight as volatile selling continues, characterized by sharp intraday swings and aggressive liquidations. While gold and silver typically benefit from economic uncertainty, the current "selling begets selling" environment suggests a deleveraging event is underway. Traders should watch for key support levels, as the momentum currently favors the bears in the immediate short term.The Shift to Risk-Off: Crypto Gaps DownThe cautious sentiment in traditional commodities has spilled over—and amplified—within the digital asset ecosystem. Over the weekend and into early Monday, the crypto market experienced a significant gap down, catching many levered participants off-guard.The headline story remains MicroStrategy’s aggressive treasury policy. The recent Bitcoin dip has put MicroStrategy’s strategy marginally underwater, a psychological level that often triggers broader market anxiety. However, for long-term investors, it is important to note that despite the price action, immediate balance sheet risks for the firm remain limited.As Bitcoin and Ethereum struggle to reclaim broken support levels following this morning's gap, the focus for the remainder of the week will be on whether this is a localized flush-out or the start of a deeper correction across the risk-asset spectrum.Back to Bitcoin Today (So Far)... How the downside structure developedIn the sessions leading into the sell-off, Bitcoin futures repeatedly failed to hold higher levels. Upside attempts became shorter and more fragile, while declines began to extend with noticeably less resistance.This imbalance is a classic early warning signal in technical analysis. When price falls more easily than it rises, it typically reflects deteriorating buy-side liquidity, even if volatility initially remains contained.Order flow confirmed this shift. Selling pressure increasingly met little opposition, and instead of seeing strong demand appear at lower prices, buyers stepped aside, allowing price to drift lower without aggressive liquidation.Why recent rebounds failed in Bitcoin futures todaySeveral intraday rebounds appeared during the decline. On the surface, these moves may have looked constructive, particularly on lower timeframes. However, order flow revealed that these were responsive bounces, not the start of a structural recovery.In practical terms, buying activity during these rallies was short-term and tactical, often driven by short covering rather than conviction. Price failed to achieve acceptance at higher levels, and sellers remained comfortable defending each rebound.From a technical standpoint, this behavior reinforces a bearish bias and suggests that recent upside attempts were corrective rather than trend-changing.Bitcoin price prediction: why the bias remains bearishThe current bitcoin price prediction is not based on a single candle or headline-driven event. Instead, it reflects a gradual deterioration in market structure.Key technical observations include:Selling pressure has become more efficientBuying responses have grown weaker and less persistentPrice continues to trade below key reference levels rather than reclaiming themUntil these conditions improve, downside risk remains elevated and rallies are best treated with caution.Key support zone to watch for Bitcoin futures this week: $70,900 to $72,645From a bitcoin technical analysis standpoint, the $70,900 to $72,645 region stands out as the next major area of interest.If price revisits this zone, the focus should be on market behavior, not predictions:Does selling pressure begin to slow?Does two-way trade emerge instead of one-sided downside?Is there evidence that sellers are meeting sustained demand?Only if price begins to stabilize and absorb selling pressure in this region would the bitcoin price prediction shift toward a potential bullish reversal, whether temporary or more durable.What today's bitcoin analysis is not suggestingTo avoid common misinterpretations:This is not a recommendation to buy BitcoinThis is not a call to short current pricesThis is not an attempt to identify a market bottomThe goal is to highlight where new technical information is most likely to emerge.What would change the Bitcoin outlookThe bearish bitcoin technical analysis would need to be reassessed if the market begins to show:Sustained stabilization instead of shallow reboundsClear evidence of selling absorptionImproved follow-through on rallies rather than immediate rejectionUntil then, patience remains essential.Bitcoin futures are lower not because of a single catalyst, but due to a gradual breakdown in market structure. Order flow continues to show sellers in control and buyers failing to reassert themselves. From a bitcoin technical analysis and bitcoin price prediction perspective, the $70,900 to $72,645 area is the next key zone to watch for signals, not action.For real-time updates and market context, traders can follow the free InvestingLive Stocks channel on Telegram. https://t.me/investingLiveStocks This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The Friday move was one for the ages and even then, it still hasn't put a bad mark to gold and silver's performance to start the year. Even with the drop on Friday and the one today, gold is up some 8% so far in 2026 and silver up a little more closer to 9%. Sure, the numbers pale in comparison when you pit them against the surging runs in 2024 and 2025 especially. But on any other given year, these kind of numbers are more than solid.That speaks to the kind of environment we're trading in over the past two years, which is quite something in the precious metals space. It wasn't just three years ago that we could still see silver print $20 on the charts. Yet, here we are talking about a $40 correction in just two days like it isn't that big of a deal. Wild stuff.As we look to the new week, gold and silver will remain in the spotlight. That as traders and investors weigh up their positions and what to make of the sharp pullback/correction. The main question at this point is where do dip buyers step in?The latest dip today brings gold closer towards $4,600 and that seems to be where buyers are drawing the line for now. Meanwhile for silver, that is closer towards the $75 mark as seen on the charts.Now, these are just easy and round figures to point at. But in truth, it would be a fool's errand to be picking bottoms in this kind of market and especially with such volatility.I said it already when both gold and silver dipped to around $5,000 and $100 respectively last week, before the heavier and harder-hitting selling came about afterwards. And so, the same applies to the current predicament and price action as well.The selling will stop when it stops, so it's best not to rush in head first in thinking that you can time this kind of market. In situations like these, I'd much rather be a little late in the dip buying and miss out on the extra 5% to 10% gains than risk a potential 10% to 20% further wipe out in equity.And in any case, the big picture story dictates that this will be a healthy pullback/correction for both precious metals.The sharp drop we're seeing in the past two days doesn't change the fact that the fundamental factors driving up precious metals have gone away. They never left and are still very much at play, so that will keep the market landscape supportive of gold and silver in the medium-term.But for now though, it's best to let the correction run its course and that is where we are to start February trading.From a seasonal perspective, silver hasn't quite enjoyed February as much in recent years. So, just be mindful of that as that could lead to some added pressure in the opening week(s). Likewise for gold, as the precious metal hasn't been able to follow up with gains in February after January in recent years with the only exception being in 2025.Just some food for thought as we get into the new month. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fitch sees India budget as growth-neutral as fiscal consolidation slowsBitcoin dip puts Strategy marginally underwater, but balance-sheet risks remain limitedChina PMI setback underscores fragile domestic demand at start of 2026 – INGJapan govmt walk back Takaichi yen remarks as election nears and intervention risk lingersChina private manufacturing PMI rises in January, but cost pressures intensifyAustralia job ads jump 4.4% in January, strengthening case for RBA hike tomorrowPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9695 (vs. estimate at 6.9710)India budget derivatives tax hike slammed shares in special Sunday wipe out sessionOracle to raise up to $50bn in 2026 to expand cloud infrastructureJapan manufacturing PMI jumps back into expansion as demand and hiring surgeMelbourne Institute inflation gauge ticks up to 3.6% y/y, keeping RBA hike risk aliveBoJ: Moderate recovery, inflation persistence reinforce cautious further tightening caseOil opens lower as OPEC+ holds March output and Iran risk premium wobblesFormer "Mr Yen" Watanabe warns of risk of renewed yen selling backlash into Japan electionAustralia manufacturing PMI hits five-month high as growth accelerates in JanuaryJapan PM softens weak yen comments as election and intervention risks collideChina Pres Xi revive push for yuan as reserve currency amid global dollar dominance debateChina January PMI slips into contraction as weak demand clouds early-2026 growth outlookMonday open indicative forex prices, 02 February 2026 (ps. China January PMIs missed)Newsquawk Week Ahead: US PCE, BoJ, China Activity Data, Flash PMIs, Canada and Japan CPIPalantir, AMD, Alphabet and Amazon among the names reporting next weekinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Gold down 10%, silver falls 30%At a glance:The yen weakened after PM Takaichi’s weekend comments on the benefits of a weak currency, before stabilising later in the session.Japan’s manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, rising to its strongest level since 2022.China’s official PMIs slipped back into contraction, contrasting with firmer private PMI data and renewed yuan internationalisation rhetoric from President Xi.Oil prices traded heavy after OPEC+ held March output steady and offered no guidance beyond Q1.Asia-Pac equities were pressured by China data, Korea volatility, India’s budget shock, and tech weakness, with Japan the main outlier.Bitcoin continued to sell lower.The yen came under pressure after Prime Minister Takaichi’s weekend comments that a weak currency can be a major opportunity for export industries. USD/JPY climbed to highs around 155.45 before easing back toward Friday’s closing levels near 154.80–85. Later in the session, Japan’s manufacturing PMI data arrived, rising to 51.5 in January from 50.0, marking the strongest improvement since 2022.More broadly across FX, the US dollar was little net changed.From China over the weekend, President Xi Jinping renewed calls for the yuan to attain a global reserve currency status, backing expanded trade settlement and alternative payment systems. At the same time, official PMI data showed both manufacturing and services activity slipping back into contraction in January, underscoring ongoing weakness in domestic demand. That contrasted with private data later in the session, as the RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, signalling modest expansion for a second consecutive month.Oil prices traded on the heavy side. OPEC+ agreed to hold output policy steady for March, extending the first-quarter pause in planned production increases. The group offered no guidance beyond March, keeping optionality high amid uncertainty around Iran and the global demand outlook. President Trump said the US and Iran would hold talks, a message echoed by unnamed US officials.The Bank of Japan’s January Summary of Opinions showed comments on a moderate economic recovery and ongoing inflation pressures, with policymakers indicating that gradual rate increases would be appropriate if current forecasts are realised.In Australia, manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high in January, while the Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge increased 0.2% m/m (previously 1.0%). The annual pace edged up to 3.6% y/y, keeping inflation concerns alive as markets debate the risk of an RBA rate hike on February 3.Asia-Pacific equities were broadly pressured amid several bearish themes, including the partial US government shutdown, the surprise contraction in China’s official PMIs, and lingering fallout from the recent historic collapse in precious metals. Sentiment was also dented by tech-related weakness following reports that Nvidia’s planned USD 100bn investment in OpenAI had stalled.South Korea saw sharp volatility, with authorities briefly halting program trading on the KOSPI for five minutes after futures dropped 5%. The KOSPI fell 5% on the day, led by sharp losses in Samsung and SK Hynix, marking its biggest fall since November 2021.US equity index futures fell in thin Sunday evening trade. Japan’s Nikkei was a notable exception, supported by the weaker yen and expectations of Takaichi-led fiscal stimulus. Oracle is to raise up to US$50bn in 2026 to expand cloud infrastructure.In India, a hike in derivatives transaction taxes announced in the budget slammed equities during a special Sunday trading session. The Nifty 50 fell about 1.96% and the Sensex dropped around 1.88%, marking the worst Budget-day performance in six years.Bitcoin continued to lose ground. Asia-Pac stocks: Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.48%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -2.4% Shanghai Composite -1.3%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -1% (ps. Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate statement due Tuesday local time)RBA due at 0330 GMT on Tuesday, February 3, 2026 / 2230 US Eastern time on Monday, February 2, 2026 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fitch said India’s budget underscores macro stability and fiscal credibility, with growth seen steady.Summary:Fitch Ratings said India’s latest budget reinforces its commitment to macro stability, even as fiscal consolidation slows.The agency views the FY27 deficit target of 4.3% of GDP as modest progress, reflecting the growing difficulty of further consolidation.Fitch described the budget as broadly neutral for growth, forecasting FY27 GDP growth of 6.4%.Elevated deficits, debt and interest costs remain a constraint, though stronger capital expenditure is supporting medium-term growth potential.Indian equities edged higher, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 both turning positive after the Fitch comments.Earlier:India budget derivatives tax hike slammed shares in special Sunday wipe out sessionIndia’s budget has drawn a measured response from Fitch Ratings, which said the government continues to demonstrate a commitment to macroeconomic stability, even as the pace of fiscal consolidation slows into the next financial year.Fitch said the government’s plan to target a 4.3% of GDP fiscal deficit in FY27 represents only modest consolidation, but is broadly consistent with its view that further deficit reduction is becoming increasingly difficult. While the deficit remains above pre-pandemic levels, the agency noted that this largely reflects higher capital expenditure, rather than a deterioration in fiscal discipline.From a growth perspective, Fitch characterised the budget as broadly neutral. The agency maintained its FY27 growth forecast at 6.4%, indicating that the budget neither materially boosts nor undermines India’s near-term growth outlook. Instead, the emphasis appears to be on balancing fiscal credibility with continued support for infrastructure and investment-led expansion.Fitch highlighted that India’s general government deficits, debt burden and interest payments remain elevated compared with peers, and are likely to decline only gradually. That structural backdrop limits the scope for aggressive fiscal easing, reinforcing the government’s cautious approach. However, the agency said India’s lengthening record of fiscal credibility should continue to support its credit profile over time, particularly as reforms are layered on top of recent progress.The agency also pointed to scope for further reforms, especially on deregulation, which could help build on recent momentum. Fitch said sustained reform efforts would be key to boosting private investment, improving resilience, and potentially lifting India’s long-term growth trajectory beyond current expectations.Markets took the comments in stride. Indian equities moved higher, with the BSE Sensex last up around 0.3% and the Nifty 50 turning positive, up roughly 0.15%. Overall, Fitch’s read of the budget reinforces a familiar message for markets: India’s fiscal path remains credible but constrained, with incremental progress rather than dramatic tightening, and growth still underpinned by public investment and reform momentum rather than short-term stimulus. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Bitcoin’s pullback into the mid-$75,000s has pushed Michael Saylor’s Strategy marginally below its average bitcoin cost base.While the firm is technically “underwater” on paper, analysts see no balance-sheet stress or forced-selling risk.Strategy’s bitcoin holdings are unencumbered, and its debt structure allows significant flexibility.The main impact of lower bitcoin prices is on future fundraising capacity, not solvency.History suggests slower accumulation during periods when Strategy trades below the value of its bitcoin holdings.Info via CoinBase. Bitcoin’s recent slide to around $75,200 has pushed Strategy below the average price it paid for its vast bitcoin holdings, putting the company’s flagship digital asset position marginally underwater for the first time in months. The move has attracted attention given the scale of Strategy’s exposure, but analysts argue it does little to change the underlying financial reality of the firm.Strategy, led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, holds approximately 712,647 bitcoin, acquired at an average cost of about $76,000 per coin. The latest dip means the market value of those holdings has slipped slightly below the purchase price. However, observers note that the headline optics overstate the risk. The company’s bitcoin is fully unencumbered, with none pledged as collateral, eliminating the threat of forced liquidation tied to price declines.Concerns have also resurfaced around Strategy’s $8.2 billion in convertible debt, but analysts point out that the structure of those obligations provides ample breathing room. The first meaningful put date on the convertibles does not arrive until the second half of 2027, giving the company years to manage maturities. Strategy also retains the option to roll over debt, convert it into equity, or deploy alternative capital tools if needed—approaches that have already been used by other bitcoin-focused treasury firms.Liquidity further cushions the balance sheet. Strategy is holding more than $2 billion in cash, earmarked primarily for dividend payments, reinforcing the view that near-term financial stress is not an issue even with bitcoin trading below cost.Where the price pullback does matter is in capital raising. Strategy has historically expanded its bitcoin position by issuing shares through at-the-market equity programmes. This approach works best when the stock trades at a premium to the market value of its bitcoin holdings. With bitcoin falling sharply from recent highs and Strategy’s market valuation compressing, that premium has narrowed or flipped into a discount, making new equity issuance less attractive.As a result, analysts expect the company’s pace of bitcoin accumulation to slow rather than reverse. A similar dynamic played out in 2022, when Strategy added relatively little to its holdings during an extended period of weaker prices.In short, trading slightly below cost is not a crisis. It signals a pause in aggressive accumulation rather than financial distress, leaving Strategy positioned to wait for more favourable market conditions. No, not yet ... This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:China’s official PMI data point to persistent domestic weakness at the start of 2026, according to analysis from ING.The official manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction, reinforcing doubts that December marked a genuine turning point.Price indicators showed tentative improvement, offering some relief from deflation concerns.Private-sector PMI data painted a more constructive picture, highlighting the role of exports and private firms.Services activity also slipped into contraction, underscoring the challenge of reviving domestic demand.China’s softer-than-expected PMI readings in January suggest that domestic economic challenges have carried over into the start of 2026, even as external demand continues to provide pockets of support, according to analysis from ING Group.The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index slipped back into contractionary territory at 49.3 in January, down from 50.1 in December and well below market expectations for a second month of expansion. The setback reinforces concerns that December’s improvement may have been temporary rather than the start of a sustained recovery. Manufacturing activity has now been in contraction for nine of the past ten months, highlighting the fragility of underlying demand conditions.ING noted that the weakness was broad-based across most sub-indices. Production remained marginally in expansion but slowed notably, while new orders fell back below the 50 threshold, erasing December’s gains. Export orders also deteriorated, pointing to softer momentum even as overseas demand remains comparatively stronger than domestic consumption. Other indicators, including employment and order backlogs, edged lower, reinforcing the picture of subdued factory activity.There were, however, some tentative positives in the price data. Measures of ex-factory prices moved into expansion for the first time in almost two years, while raw material input costs rose to their highest levels in around 20 months. ING views these developments as encouraging signs in the context of China’s long-running deflation concerns, even if they do not yet signal a broader turnaround in demand.The official PMI also highlighted a growing divergence by firm size. Large enterprises continued to outperform, remaining in expansionary territory, while small and medium-sized firms stayed under pressure—an outcome consistent with tighter financing conditions and weaker domestic demand.In contrast, private-sector survey data painted a more optimistic picture. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI edged higher in January, supported by gains in production, new orders and employment, alongside rising output prices. ING noted that this divergence reflects differences in survey coverage, with the private PMI skewed more toward export-oriented and privately owned firms, which have benefited from stronger external demand.The contrast echoes a key theme from 2025, when exports and industrial output held up relatively well while household demand and services lagged. That imbalance was also evident in the non-manufacturing PMI, which slipped back into contraction in January, hitting its weakest level in more than three years. Services indicators such as new orders softened again, underscoring the difficulty policymakers face in shifting growth toward domestic consumption.Overall, ING concludes that China’s PMI data point to stabilisation rather than recovery. Without a more durable pickup in domestic demand, the economy is likely to remain reliant on external drivers and policy support as 2026 unfolds. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Japan’s government is trying to walk back and “de-risk” Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s weekend remarks that were widely interpreted as being comfortable with a weak yen. And also insensitive to Japanese people grappling with higher cost of living brought on somewhat by the lower yen driving up the JPY cost of imports. A government spokesperson refused to comment on FX levels and said Takaichi was not endorsing yen weakness, but arguing for an economy resilient to currency swings.The clarification highlights a growing messaging problem: political campaigning is colliding with the finance ministry’s long-running stance that it may act against “excessive” FX moves. Markets remain sensitive because yen weakness is feeding inflation, while the Bank of Japan has openly debated the risk of being behind the curve on inflation. With the February 8 snap election approaching, inconsistent rhetoric risks adding volatility to USD/JPY and long-dated JGBs as investors reassess intervention and policy risks.Japan’s currency messaging is getting messier after new comments from a government spokesperson sought to neutralise market fallout from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s weekend remarks on the yen.In brief, the spokesperson on Sunday declined to comment on specific foreign-exchange levels, while emphasising that Takaichi was not attempting to advertise the benefits of a weak yen. Instead, the spokesperson said the prime minister’s intention was to stress the goal of building a stronger domestic economy that can withstand exchange-rate fluctuations.That clarification follows Takaichi’s campaign comments a day earlier that were taken by markets as being relatively tolerant of yen weakness, an awkward tone given the government’s parallel effort to keep intervention risk credible. Reporting around the remarks highlighted the contrast between campaign rhetoric and the finance ministry’s repeated warnings that it will respond if FX moves become excessive or disorderly. The timing matters. The yen has been hovering near multi-month lows, and currency depreciation has become politically sensitive because it lifts import costs and adds to household inflation. That inflation channel is also central to the BOJ debate: the bank’s January meeting discussion leaned more hawkish, with some policymakers raising concerns about falling behind the curve if inflation risks intensify, particularly when yen weakness is amplifying price pressures. Markets have already shown they are quick to punish perceived policy slippage. Recent episodes of yen weakness and bond-market volatility have been linked to worries about fiscal loosening under Takaichi, including tax-cut talk, with some investors likening the risk to a credibility shock if policy discipline is questioned. Those dynamics make message discipline critical: if the government wants to deter one-way yen selling, it cannot appear relaxed about depreciation, even rhetorically.The spokesperson’s attempt to “reframe” Takaichi’s comments is therefore best read as damage control and a reminder that Tokyo wants to keep two options alive at once: supporting growth and reflation domestically, while preserving the ability to warn markets against disorderly FX moves.For traders, the takeaway is that the yen story is now a political story as much as a monetary one. With the February 8 election nearing, any further muddled messaging risks adding headline-driven volatility, especially if it clashes again with finance ministry guidance or BOJ hawkishness. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s private manufacturing PMI edged higher in January, but rising costs and weak confidence point to a fragile and uneven recovery.Summary:China’s private-sector manufacturing PMI edged higher in January, signalling a second straight month of modest expansion.Output and new orders improved, with overseas demand—particularly from Southeast Asia—providing support.Employment rose slightly and backlogs eased, pointing to marginal operational improvement.Cost pressures intensified, pushing factory-gate prices higher for the first time in over a year.The private PMI contrasts with weaker official PMI data, highlighting a still-fragile and uneven recovery.China’s manufacturing sector showed tentative signs of improvement at the start of 2026, according to private-sector PMI data, though the recovery remains shallow and increasingly challenged by rising cost pressures and subdued confidence.The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in January, up from 50.1 in December, remaining just above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. While the reading points to continued growth for a second month, the pace of improvement was modest and broadly consistent with a fragile recovery rather than a strong rebound.Production expanded at a slightly faster rate as manufacturers reported higher new business inflows. Demand conditions improved marginally, supported by a renewed rise in export orders following a contraction in December. Survey evidence pointed to firmer demand from Southeast Asian markets, helping to offset still-soft conditions at home. Total new orders have now expanded for several consecutive months, though growth remained limited, with some firms citing elevated prices and weak underlying market conditions as constraints.Manufacturers responded to rising workloads by increasing staffing levels for the first time in three months. Although employment gains were modest, the increase in workforce capacity, alongside efficiency improvements, helped reduce outstanding work for the first time since mid-2025. Purchasing activity also strengthened as firms replenished raw materials and semi-finished goods, leading to a second consecutive rise in input inventories. In contrast, stocks of finished goods continued to decline as companies focused on fulfilling existing orders rather than building inventories.Supply-chain conditions were broadly stable, with delivery times unchanged. However, inflationary pressures intensified. Input costs rose at their fastest pace in four months, driven largely by higher metals prices amid a broader commodities upswing. As a result, manufacturers lifted output prices for the first time since November 2024, with export charges also increasing at the quickest pace in around 18 months.Despite these improvements, business confidence weakened. Sentiment fell to a nine-month low as firms expressed concern over rising costs and uncertainty around the broader economic outlook. The softer confidence reading reinforces the message that momentum remains fragile.Crucially, the private PMI stands in contrast to official PMI data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which showed both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity slipping into contraction in January. The divergence underscores the uneven nature of China’s recovery, with pockets of export-linked resilience sitting alongside weak domestic demand and cautious consumers.Taken together, the data suggest China’s manufacturing sector is stabilising rather than accelerating. Without a stronger demand recovery or more decisive policy support, rising cost pressures risk squeezing margins and limiting the durability of the upturn. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian job ads surged in January, signalling renewed labour demand and reinforcing expectations the RBA may need to tighten policy.Summary:Australian job advertisements surged 4.4% m/m in January, snapping a six-month run of declines and marking the strongest monthly gain in four years.The rebound adds to evidence the labour market remains resilient despite higher interest rates and slowing growth elsewhere.Job ads are only modestly lower than a year ago and remain well above pre-pandemic levels.Hiring gains were concentrated in consumer-facing sectors, suggesting demand has not cooled materially.The data reinforces market expectations that the RBA may well hike tomorrow, February 3, amid sticky inflation and labour tightness.Australia’s labour market showed renewed momentum at the start of the year, with private-sector data pointing to a sharp rebound in hiring demand that underscores the economy’s resilience and complicates the near-term policy outlook for the central bank.Job advertisements rose 4.4% in January, reversing a 0.8% decline in December and ending a six-month downward streak, according to data compiled by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and employment platform Indeed. The January increase was the strongest monthly rise in four years, signalling that employers have become more willing to add staff after a prolonged period of caution.In level terms, job ads were just 3.2% lower than a year earlier, a relatively modest pullback. Importantly, advertised job numbers remain 11.8% above pre-pandemic levels, highlighting how elevated labour demand continues to be relative to historical norms.The rebound was led by consumer-facing sectors such as retail, customer service and food services, areas that are typically sensitive to shifts in household spending. The strength in these categories suggests that demand conditions have not softened as much as policymakers might have hoped, even as higher borrowing costs squeeze real incomes.For markets, the timing of the data is critical. The strong jobs print lands just ahead of the next Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision, with investors increasingly convinced that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. Market pricing implies roughly a three-in-four chance of a 25bp rate hike, reflecting concerns that resilient labour demand could sustain wage growth and slow the return of inflation to target.While job advertisements are not a direct measure of employment outcomes, they are widely viewed as a forward-looking indicator of labour market conditions. The January surge suggests that the expected cooling in hiring demand has been delayed, raising the risk that labour market tightness persists longer than anticipated.From a policy perspective, the data strengthens the argument for caution. Even if the RBA opts to hold rates steady in the near term, the combination of firmer inflation readings and renewed labour demand boosts the scope for hiking ahead. RBA policymakers may need to maintain a hawkish lean until clearer signs of slack emerge in the jobs market.Overall, the January job ads rebound reinforces a key theme of the Australian outlook: growth may be slowing, but the labour market remains a pillar of strength, complicating the inflation fight and keeping rate expectations elevated.-Coming up on February 3:That 0330 is GMT, which is 2230 US Eastern time. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock news conference is an hour later. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.