Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsTraders have been preparing for the Trump-Xi meeting for months and it is finally happening, with the two leaders meeting in BeijingWhile the US-Iran war takes a step back in the headlines, economies are not welcoming its side-effects on inflation, exploding in recent releases Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Traders have spent months getting ready for the quintessential Trump-Xi summit, and now it is finally taking place.As the two leaders meet in person in Beijing, the broader market is waiting to see what happens. Many expect this meeting to bring major geopolitical, economic progress and push back against the de-globalization worries that were common in 2025. While investors await for further news, most asset classes are staying in consolidation.WTI Crude Oil is the only exception to the market pause. Continuous supply shortages are pushing oil prices back above $100, and even though the US-Iran war is getting less daily coverage, its serious economic effects are becoming more obvious. Oil 4H Chart. May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Tuesday’s CPI report showed a large 3.7% increase, 0.2% above expectations, but what really worried traders was this morning’s PPI release (Producer Price Index). Wholesale inflation came in at 5.2% year-over-year, much higher than the expected 4.9%.A 1.4% rise on the month!These back-to-back inflation reports are not so surprising, but definitely unpleasant. Since producer costs usually lead to higher consumer prices later, the high PPI suggests that retail inflation could remain high in the coming months. US Morning Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar This structural inflation spike almost guarantees there will be no rate cuts at the upcoming meetings, as seen in the Fed Rate pricing.This rise in structural inflation means the Federal Reserve and other central banks will not be able to find an easy solution. Fed Pricing for the September 2026 meeting – Small chances of a both a hike and a cut are priced in. Source: CMEGroup As seen in the last meetings across major Central Banks, policymakers are already changing their guidance and reconsidering whether to cut rates or raise them further.Economic clarity from the Trump-Xi talks, the broader FX markets—and particularly the US Dollar—are remaining remarkably stoic, bracing for the next massive fundamental catalyst.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 faces pullback risk as semiconductor rally shows signs of exhaustionAsia open: US inflation reaccelerates to 3.8%, and chip stocks falterGold (XAU/USD) rises slow and steady – In-depth Gold technical analysisNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Both the Nasdaq and Japanese Nikkei 225 are dominating the charts over the past week and half, largely outperforming the more defensive and traditional TSX, Dow Jones and DAX.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is rallying slowly towards the 98.50 pivot zone, undoing a decent part of its Ceasefire correction.The current test will be very important – US Dollar bulls will want to see a continuous rise above the 4H 200-period MA (98.72), while bears will want to see a slowdown and rejection around current levels.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot4H 200-period MA (98.72)99.30 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.18 4H 50-period MA98.00 Major SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, May 13, 2026 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is back in a much stronger position after recent weeks of struggle, but the rise isn't uniform – With the exception of the Yen, all Asia-Pacific major currencies are up against the greenback, as their respective Central Banks' hawkish pricing dominates!Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, May 13, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is actually losing some ground against all majors – A bizarre divergence when looking at Crude prices still exploding every second.This will be a divergence to capture for some mean-reversion traders if this dynamic doesn't correct by then. USD/CAD 4H Chart, May 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Volatility in FX Markets is slowly decreasing and USD/CAD, while rallying from its range lows, seems to be decreasing the pace of its rise, as indicated by the diverging RSI from overbought levels.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3720 – 1.3750 Resistance1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)Support Levels:1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)1.35 Key Psychological SupportEnd-January Lows 1.34820US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Except for the many Fed Speeches expected throughout the coming 7 days, traders will await for a few economic releases including the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing release next Monday, and Canadian CPI on Tuesday.And don't forget the Beige Book next Wednesday afternoon!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways US inflation accelerated sharply in April, with headline CPI rising to 3.8% y/y and core CPI to 2.8% y/y, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” Federal Reserve narrative and effectively eliminating expectations for rate cuts in 2026.Semiconductor stocks led a broad technology pullback after an extended rally, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 3% as major chip names, including Qualcomm and Intel, experienced aggressive profit-taking.Chart of the day: USD/JPY climbed toward the key 157.90 intervention risk zone as rising US yields strengthened the US dollar, although bearish RSI divergence now signals growing short-term upside exhaustion risks.Top macro headlines US consumer prices jump further: Headline annual US CPI inflation rose to 3.8% y/y in April, higher than expected and the highest in three years. This means real wage growth has turned negative for the first time since 2023. Core inflation also jumped to 2.8% y/y, its steepest rise since September 2025.Iran peace deal on 'life support': Hopes for a Middle East peace resolution are fading rapidly after US President Donald Trump stated the US-Iran ceasefire is on "life support," sending oil prices sharply higher.Semiconductor sector sells off: A 70% rally over the past six weeks in chip stocks unraveled, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling 3%. Market darlings like Qualcomm (-11.5%) and Intel (-7%) dragged down the broader tech sector.US and Japan address FX volatility: Amid a surging US dollar, US and Japanese officials, including Bessent, agreed that excess foreign exchange volatility is undesirable.Anthropic share transfer rules raise doubts: AI giant Anthropic updated rules surrounding the buying and transfer of its shares, raising doubts about ownership rights ahead of its highly anticipated IPO.Key macro themes Fed rate cut bets wiped out: The historic energy shock and 3.8% CPI print have completely wiped out market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. If the Fed does move, current pricing from the CME FedWatch tool shows it will be to tighten.Political pressures stoke global yields: Wary that a successor to UK leader Keir Starmer may increase borrowing, long-term UK bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998. This complements rising yields in the US due to inflation fears.Potential froth coming off the AI rally: The sharp decline in semiconductors suggests investors are taking profits from an overheated sector, exacerbated by wild volatility in Asian tech markets and rising long-term borrowing costs.Global market impact Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9%, dragged down by semiconductor stocks. The Dow inched higher by only 0.1%. Europe closed in the red. US healthcare was a bright spot, gaining 2% with UnitedHealth up 3%.Fixed Income: US Treasury yields surged 5 bps across the curve, reacting to inflation data and a soft 10-year note auction characterized by a low bid/cover ratio. UK 30-year yields hit highs not seen since 1998.FX: The US Dollar rose broadly as rate cut expectations evaporated. Sterling fell 0.5%, becoming the biggest decliner among major currencies amid UK political uncertainty.Commodities: Oil prices rebounded aggressively on fading ceasefire hopes, with WTI surging 4% to move back above the critical $100/bbl level. Brent rallied by 3% to close at $107.70/bbl.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Japan managed to end higher on Tuesday, 12 May, but Asia ex-Japan broadly declined. South Korea's KOSPI ended down 2% after a wild rollercoaster ride, setting the tone for the global semiconductor sell-off.Currencies: The South Korean Won slumped 1% against the surging US Dollar, reflecting vulnerability to the global energy shock and risk-off sentiment.Economic outlook: Focus shifts heavily to the upcoming Trump-Xi Beijing summit. Investors are seeking clarity on AI policies and broader trade relations as inflation risks mount globally.Top 4 economic data/events to watch today AU Wespac Consumer Confidence (May) - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200Euro Zone Q1 GDP (Flash) & Industrial Production (Mar) - 5:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Producer Price Inflation (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.9% y/y, Mar: 4% y/y) Impact: US Treasuries, USD, US stock indicesAsian Earnings Heavyweights: Tencent, Alibaba, Nissan, Softbank Impact: Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, Global Tech stocksChart of the day - USD/JPY squeezed up to intervention risk level of 157.90 Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 13 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The recent four-day rebound of 1.8% in the USD/JPY, from the 6 May 2026 low of 155.03, has reached the prior Japanese authorities’ “stealth intervention” level of 157.90.In addition, short-term momentum has turned bearish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region on Tuesday, May 12, in the US session.Watch the 158.10 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 156.50 may see a further potential drop to retest the next intermediate supports at 155.55 and 154.65 (see Fig. 1).However, a clearance with an hourly close above 158.10 negates the bearish scenario for a further squeeze up to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 158.60 (also the 50-day moving average) and 159.10. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar saw a sharp correction after the fragile ceasefire began, but that downward trend has now completely stopped.With the peace narrative having stalled, it is clear that the FX market is taking a more realistic view of the US-Iran diplomatic talks than Stock Markets, which remain optimistic despite little real progress.Foreign exchange markets are focusing on energy prices instead of tech sector excitement, and are adjusting for geopolitical risks. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView. May 12, 2026 After gaining against the US Dollar in late March and early April, most major currencies are back to trading in a narrow range.Today, though, they are quickly reversing as WTI Crude oil moves back above $100 with the recently souring narrative..The ongoing conflict and related economic challenges are supporting the US Dollar. Although new reports suggest Iran may dilute its highly enriched uranium to 3.7% and 20%, overall diplomatic talks have stalled, and the uncertainty continues to disrupt energy supply chains while adding to the demand for the US Dollar. Current Session's FX Performance – Courtesy of Finviz. May 12, 2026 Along with the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a higher-than-expected inflation report has strengthened the US Dollar, and make sure to stay logged in because there will be more reports for inflation coming up tomorrow (PPI).Today’s CPI showed headline inflation at 3.8% (compared to 3.7% expected) and core CPI at 2.8% (versus 2.6% forecast) – A huge rise but not so surprising considering the explosion in gas prices.The strong inflation reading keeps suggesting that the Fed will keep rates as is (if not hiking!), putting pressure on other major currencies. US Morning Data – MarketPulse Economic Calendar We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD to assess the current state of the FX Market and where to look next. Discover:Chart alert: WTI crude is poised for a potential volatility bullish breakout above $102.54/bblAsia open: Stocks hit new highs on AI optimism as US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a threadSilver (XAG/USD) is in breakout mode, pushing above $85 – In-depth Silver technical analysisDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index Daily Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is breaking out of its end-March downward channel after forming a triple bottom right around the 97.50 level.With the recent lows conciding with the mid-zone of the larger 96.00 to 100.00 range, the consolidation could be tightening further between 98.00 to 100.00 as long as the peace process doesn't move forward.Expect more US Dollar rallies if the Index breaches 08.50Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot98.78 4h 200-period MA99.40 to 99.50 ResistanceInitial War Spike 99.68100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support Levels98.00 2025 Support (testing – bearish below)Support 97.40 to 97.60 (triple bottom)2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportRange lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00GBP/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels GBP/USD 4H Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView GBP/USD is still remaining between 1.3410 to 1.36 but now rejecting its resistance zone, heading back to support.Add to the ongoing outflows political turmoil in the UK with Keir Starmer's Ministers resigning and you get there a pretty bearish outlook for the Pound.While still far, look at whether the 1.34170 (2024 top) level holds.Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance LevelsDecember Resistance 1.36 (range highs)pre-FOMC Highs 1.36010Resistance 1.37 zone2025 Resistance around 1.38Support LevelsKey Pivot 1.3410 to 1.34401.34170 (2024 top) levelPivotal Support 1.3250 - 1.331.32 War SupportEUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, May 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is also rejecting its 1.18 resistance and quickly falling towards the 1.17 momentum pivot, with bearish acceleration expected as the RSI is falling below neutral.Sellers are also breaching the 4H 50-period MA, hence this could weigh on the price action. While still lacking momentum, traders will want to confirm the action with strong bear candles and volumes within 1.1720.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance Levels1.17380 4H 50-period MAResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)1.1830 June 2025 highs1.1850 to 1.1860 Recent TestSep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneSupport Levels1.17 to 1.1720 March PivotRebound highs 1.17200 (bearish below)Major Pivot 1.16250 to 1.163501.1540 to 1.1570 War Support1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.1410Safe Trades and keep a close eye on Ceasefire news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains strongly supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions after hopes for renewed US-Iran peace talks faded, increasing the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption and sustained global energy supply tightness.Prediction market data from Polymarket shows sharply declining probabilities of shipping traffic normalising in the Strait of Hormuz by May and June 2026, reinforcing elevated geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets.Technically, WTI crude is showing bullish breakout conditions above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, supported by bullish candlestick formations and positive RSI momentum, with $102.54 acting as the key breakout resistance level. The optimism that was being priced in by global markets last week for an imminent second round of US-Iran peace deal talks to take place this week has fizzled out after US President Trump rejected Tehran’s response to the latest US proposal on Sunday.The key hurdle is the transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium. In a nutshell, without any set dates for peace talks emerging on the near-term horizon, the ongoing two-month-plus closure in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to extend, which may aggravate the global energy and oil crunch as oil flows continue to dwindle.Prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure may sustain elevated oil prices Fig. 1: WTI crude oil futures & other cross assets performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 8 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: Polymarket probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal as of 12 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Despite the fragile US-Iran ceasefire that has remained in place since 8 April 2026, oil continues to be the top-performing asset class.From the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 through Friday, 8 May 2026, WTI crude oil futures surged by 42%, underscoring persistent supply disruption concerns and elevated geopolitical risk premiums in the energy market (see Fig. 1).Betting data from Polymarket (a major prediction market platform) suggests a low probability of a return to normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.The probability of Hormuz’s traffic returning to normal by the end of May 2026 has been reduced to 12.5% as of 12 May 2026 from 35.5% printed on 7 May 2026.A similar trend is evident for the end of June 2026, where the probability has fallen sharply to 37.5% from 60.5% over the same period (see Fig. 2).Let’s now focus on the 1 to 3 days trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.WTI crude – Bullish expansion above 20-day and 50-day MAs Fig. 3: West Texas oil CFD as of 12 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Rebound towards March/April 2026 medium-term range top with 95.00 as key short-term pivotal support (see Fig. 3).Resistances: 102.54, 108.20, and 112.84Next supports: 90.50, 86.58, and 82.89Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the WTI crude The price actions of the West Texas oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) have started to accelerate higher above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, following a brief period of subdued volatility observed on Friday, 8 May, and Monday, 11 May.The current daily candlestick (Tuesday, 12 May) has transformed into an impending “Bullish Marubozu” pattern after a prior daily bullish “Hammer” seen on 7 May, coupled with a retest on its key 50-day moving average. A sign of positive follow-through that may lead to higher prices.The hourly RSI momentum indicator continues to exhibit bullish momentum conditions as it remains supported by an ascending trendline. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nikkei 225 continued its strong rally to a fresh record high of 63,788, driven largely by technology-related heavyweights such as SoftBank Group and Murata Manufacturing.Despite the broader medium-term bullish trend remaining intact, technical indicators now suggest a near-term corrective pullback risk below the 64,145 resistance level, supported by a developing bearish “Head & Shoulders” pattern.Momentum conditions have weakened as hourly RSI bearish divergence and Elliott Wave/Fibonacci analysis point to exhaustion in the recent five-wave bullish impulsive sequence, increasing the probability of a short-term retracement toward 61,945 and lower support zones. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Nikkei 225’s bullish reversal extends towards new all-time highs”, published on 16 April 2026.The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 index futures) have rallied as expected in the past four weeks and surpassed the 62,044, as highlighted in our earlier report.It hit a fresh intraday all-time high of 63,788 on Monday, 11 May 2026, led by technology-related component stocks in the past month, such as Softbank Group (+58%), and Murata Manufacturing (+53%).However, the price actions of financial assets do not move vertically, as there will be periods of countertrend movements or trend reversals due to changing sentiment.Right now, the Nikkei 225 faces the risk of a minor corrective countertrend decline within a medium-term uptrend phase.Let’s unpack in greater detail.Nikkei 225 – Minor bearish “Head & Shoulders” sighted Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 12 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Minor bearish corrective decline within medium-term uptrend below 64,145 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 1).Supports: 61,945 (neckline of “Head & Shoulders”), 61,180/60,795, and 59,970 (also the 20-day moving average).Next resistances: 65,010/65,040 and 66,190/66,568 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 30 March 2026 low).Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on the Nikkei 225 Since 7 May 2026, its price action has traced out a minor bearish reversal “Head & Shoulders” configuration, indicating a potential end of its minor uptrend phase from the 30 April 2026 low.Based on the Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci analysis, the price actions have completed a five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move sequence (labelled as i, ii, iii, iv & v) with a potential terminal level at 63,772 (based on 0.382 Fibonacci extension from the start of the minor bullish impulsive up move from the 30 April 2026 low). The next probable move is a minor corrective decline to retrace its prior five-wave minor bullish impulsive up move.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has shown a bullish exhaustion condition (bearish divergence since 7 May 2026 at its overbought region, which supports the potential incoming minor corrective decline. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equity markets, led by Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI, climbed to fresh record highs as AI-driven optimism continued to overpower geopolitical concerns surrounding the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.Rising oil prices, stronger inflation expectations, and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric reinforced the “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative, pushing US Treasury yields higher and supporting broad US dollar strength.Chart of the day: The Hang Seng Index maintained a constructive bullish structure after rebounding from its 20-day moving average, with momentum indicators suggesting potential upside continuation above the 26,210/100 support zone.Top macro headlines US-Iran ceasefire 'on life support': US President Donald Trump stated the ceasefire with Iran is fading, dashing hopes for an imminent peace deal after rejecting Iran's recent proposal as "unacceptable" over the weekend.Global stocks reach record highs: Major indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI, powered to new record highs as the "artificial intelligence fever" vastly outweighed concerns over Middle East supply shocks.Alphabet and Amazon tap overseas debt: Tech giants are issuing debt in lower-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss francs to fund massive AI infrastructure buildouts without draining cash reserves.Trump heads to China for crucial summit: President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set for comprehensive talks spanning Iran, nuclear issues, trade, and AI, accompanied by a large entourage of US corporate titans from companies like Tesla, Apple, and BlackRock.US CPI data looms: Markets brace for Tuesday's crucial April CPI report, with headline inflation expected to jump to 3.7% y/y (from 3.3%) primarily due to the energy price shock caused by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure.Key macro themes AI fever overpowers geopolitics: Record US equity prices are coexisting with elevated oil and rising yields. According to BlackRock, markets are comfortably pricing in both AI-driven growth and the impact of the Middle East supply shock, remaining heavily "pro-risk" despite the chaos.Extreme market concentration: Top-heavy indices have become a global feature. The top 10 US stocks now account for 33% of the overall market value. [cite: 2] Meanwhile, single tech champions like Samsung and TSMC make up roughly 20% and 40% of their respective national indices.Inflation and hawkish Fed risks: With inflation metrics heating up and oil surging, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the future of monetary policy could actually include interest rate increases, fundamentally challenging recent rate-cut hopes.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new record highs. [cite: 2] The tech sector gained 1%, and energy rallied 2.6%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index reached a new peak (+2.6%).Fixed Income: US Treasury yields climbed, with a 6 basis point rise at the short end bear steepening the curve as a 3-year auction drew weak demand.FX: The US Dollar inched higher, with the Japanese Yen serving as the biggest G10 decliner. Emerging market currencies like the Indian Rupee and South Korean Won dropped sharply on dollar strength and high energy costs.Commodities: Oil surged 3% (jumping $3/barrel) as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Silver rallied 7% to hit a 2-month high at $86.10/oz, outperforming Gold, which only recorded a modest gain of 0.4% due to a rebound in US Treasury yields.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Regional markets broadly surged. The Nikkei, KOSPI, and MSCI Asia ex-Japan indices all hit new record highs. China's A-share market reached an 11-year high following a positive data dump showing surging export growth.Currencies: The region experienced broad weakness against the USD. The Yen (-0.3%) and Won (-1%) declined despite the massive regional equity rally.Economic outlook: China's latest trade data showed a widening trade surplus and rising price pressures in April, suggesting the economy is moving out of disinflation, though unemployment ticked up.Top 3 data/events to watch today AU NAB Business Confidence (Apr) - 9.30 am SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) - 5.00 pm SGT (consensus:- 20, Apr:-20) Impact: EUR/USD. EUR crosses, DAXUS Core Inflation (Apr) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.7% y/y, Mar: 2.6% y/y) Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Hang Seng Index rebounded from 20-day MA Fig. 1: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend as of 12 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have managed a minor bullish reversal right above its 20-day moving average after a 1.7% decline from the 7 May 2026 intraday high of 26,634.The overall price structure remains bullish as it continues to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has exhibited bullish momentum conditions as it continues to be supported by an ascending trendline above the 50 level and has not reached its overbought zone (above the 70 level).Watch the 26,210/100 key short-term pivotal support to maintain a potential bullish bias. A clearance above 26,723 sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 27,100 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 1).On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below 26,100 jeopardizes the bullish tone for a slide to retest the next intermediate support at 25,930 (also the key 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks somewhat consolidate as uncertainty withstands to start the week, preparing for tomorrow's CPI reportNasdaq and S&P 500 continue to grind higher, supported by option-positioning and a very resilient semiconductor sectorExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are starting to settle as uncertainty returns at the beginning of the week. After last week’s big, news-driven moves, traders are stepping back and getting ready for tomorrow’s essential CPI report; A kind of cautious trading is common before major economic data, especially since central banks are watching closely for signs of how the Middle East conflict might be affecting consumer prices.Adding to this economic uncertainty, both the US and Iran turned down each other’s diplomatic proposals over the weekend. Without a ceasefire agreement, WTI Crude Oil prices are steadily rising right at the edge of $100 – As energy costs keep climbing, the risk of persistent, war-related inflation remains the main obstacle to hopes for interest rate cuts but this seemingly isn't much of a concern for Stock Markets these days! WTI Crude 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. May 11, 2026 Even with these ongoing geopolitical issues, the broader stock market is still resilient, showing that participants appear to be looking beyond the current Middle East situation and are focusing their optimism on the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in China later this week.With this sense of optimism about upcoming global events, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 keep moving higher. Strong options activity and a bullying semiconductor sector are helping to support these gains, even as worries about the bigger economic picture remain. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is taking a more cautious approach, but strong interest in tech stocks is keeping the overall market afloat, despite ongoing uncertainty. Daily Market Performance (11:54). May 11, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Let's prepare for tomorrow's quintessential US CPI report by diving into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Asia open: US futures dipped as US-Iran peace deal hopes dimmedMarkets Weekly Outlook - Is the 'Risk-On' Rally sustainable with rates and energy elevated?Copper near record highs. Market fears supply constraints and bets on strong demandCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56) – Source: TradingView – May 11, 2026 The split continues further with Semiconductors really demarcates itself from the past week's tech-wide rally, while the rest lag behind, leaving the DJIA underperforming the Nasdaq and S&P 500.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is consolidating further between 49,400 to 49,700 as participants keep placing more attention to the higher-volatility Nasdaq and S&P 500.The RSI momentum is somewhat turning lower and rejecting the 2H 50-MA (49,676), pointing to lower action in the upcoming action.Watch for 49,000 to the downside, and 50,000 for the upside.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels2H 50-MA (49,676)49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq continues its rocket path towards 29,500, up 11.78% since its prior all-time high.With the ongoing extension, overbought RSI conditions are not bringing back any sign of rejection. Looking at the tight bull channel (multiple green candles overlapping each other, I invite you to discover this powerful pattern) seen on the Daily chart, no element is poiting to a slowdown of the consistent price discovery.Except for any fundamental change, nothing can stop this train!To the upside, look at 30,000 on the long-term – To the downside, below 29,000 traders can expect accelerated downside.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels29,500 potential resistanceNext level 29,750Support Levels29,250 consolidation and momentum pivot28,500 Minor support28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – May 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is still pulling higher within its upward channel, testing its upper bound.By failing to reject it, odds for an upside breakout are increasing, but this will be heavily contingent on tomorrow's CPI release.Look at reactions to the 7,450 potential resistance, with the next stop at 7,500.For the downside, sellers will want to see a clear rejection and sale below 7,400.On the bigger picture, breaking 7,250 points to a larger retracement (to previous all-time highs?)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,430 - 7,450 Channel extension potential resistanceNext stop 7,500Support Levels7,320 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260 Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways US futures edged lower in the early Asian session: Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace response, dampening hopes for a formal US-Iran agreement and keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated.Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data: Reinforced the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative, reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and supporting elevated Treasury yields.The AI-driven equity rally remains intact globally: Supported by semiconductor momentum, expanding hyperscaler AI capex, and new industrial AI initiatives involving Apple, Intel, and Jeff Bezos.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100’s bullish impulsive up move overstretched, at risk of minor corrective decline below 29,505/615 key short-term resistance. Intermediate supports at 28,835 and 28,460/280.Top macro headlines Trump rejects Iran peace response: U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US peace proposal 'unacceptable' over the weekend. This diplomatic snag casts a shadow over the immediate prospects of a formalized treaty, keeping a floor under geopolitical risk premiums even as active military engagements pause.US jobs report defies expectations: A better-than-expected April employment report (actual: 115K vs consensus: 62K) has led analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve may forgo any interest rate cuts in 2026, as robust hiring and sticky inflation keep policy restrictive.US-Iran ceasefire holds after test: Reuters confirmed that while the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire late last week in the most serious test of their ceasefire, both sides indicated they did not want to escalate, and the situation has returned to normal.Apple & Intel's chip pact: The AI hardware supercycle continues to dominate, with reports emerging over the weekend that Apple has reached a preliminary deal with Intel to produce chips.Yuan hits 3-year highs ahead of summit: China's yuan strengthened to a three-year high against the US dollar, setting the stage for the highly anticipated Beijing summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15.Bezos targets industrial AI: Reuters Breakingviews highlighted that Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is raising $10 billion to help build AI models that understand the physics of production, signaling the next wave of AI capital expenditure.Key macro themes The "No Rate Cuts" reality: The combination of the hot April jobs report and persistent inflation has cemented the "higher for longer" narrative. Markets are actively pricing out the likelihood of any Federal Reserve easing for the remainder of 2026.Complex geopolitics (ceasefire holds, diplomacy stalls): Equity investors are navigating a nuanced Middle East landscape. While the physical ceasefire holding prevents a devastating oil spike above $100/bbl, Trump's "unacceptable" designation of Iran's terms means energy and defense sectors will retain a persistent risk bid.AI Capex expanding beyond Silicon Valley: The AI boom is broadening. With Morgan Stanley projecting top-tier hyperscaler AI capex to top $1.1 trillion next year, investments are now flowing into industrial and physical-world AI applications.Global market impact (last 48 hours) Equities: Wall Street advanced robustly on Friday, with the S&P 500 recording weekly gains. Semiconductor giants like AMD and Micron led the charge higher as the AI trade remains the dominant market force. Today’s early Asian session (Monday), S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures dipped 0.2% after Trump rejected Iran’s peace deal proposal.Fixed Income: The strong jobs report keeps intense pressure on the bond market. The US long bond yield (30-year) remains supported at 4.90% (50-day moving average), implying risk of deeply anchored inflation expectations.FX: The Japanese Yen remains highly volatile following Japan's suspected $67 billion intervention over the past two weeks. The Yuan is serving as a regional anchor at three-year highs.Commodities: Gold rally remained subdued below its 50-day moving average, acting as a key intermediate resistance at around $4,775/oz, while China's PBOC loaded up on bullion for an 18th straight month offers support. Crude oil is fluctuating near the $100 level.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: Asian tech giants continue to provide the bull run's center of gravity. South Korea's KOSPI recently crossed the historic 7,000 mark as Samsung's market cap surpassed $1 trillion, driven by surging memory chip demand. Mixed performances; KOSPI (+4%), and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%), while intraday losses were seen in Hang Seng Index (-0.9%) and ASX 200 (-0.8%) at this time writing.Currencies: The PBOC's management of the Yuan is keeping regional FX relatively stable ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, though the Yen's wild swings (recently touching 155/$) are keeping carry-trade investors on edge.Economic outlook: The region is absorbing the dual impacts of an AI-driven export boom (massively benefiting Taiwan and South Korea) while navigating the structural headwinds of expensive energy imports.Top 3 events to watch today China Inflation Rate & PPI (Apr) - 9:30 am SGT (consensus: 0.8% y/y-Inflation & 1.5% y/y-PPI) Impact: USD/CNH, Hang Seng, China A50, AUD/USDUS Existing Home Sales (Apr) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.05M, Mar:3.98M) Impact: US stock indices, USDGeopolitical updates on the US-Iran peace proposal Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nasdaq 100 due for a minor corrective decline Fig. 1: Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 11 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) had undergone a steep bullish impulsive up move sequence since 30 April 2026, and two key technical elements suggest that it now faces an imminent risk of a minor corrective pull-back.Last Friday’s rally on 8 May has led the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index to hover right below the upper boundary of its medium-term ascending channel in place since the 30 March 2026 low. Secondly, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has started to stage a downward reversal after it surged close to an extreme overbought level of 85 (see Fig. 1).Watch the 29,505/615 key short-term pivotal resistance. A break below 28,835 (downside trigger) may expose the next intermediate support at 28,460/280 (also the lower boundary of the ascending channel from 30 March 2026 low).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 29,615 invalidates the minor bearish scenario to see the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 29,893/953 and 30,410/417. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Equities maintain a "risk-on" rally, defying the market disconnect from elevated oil prices and rising interest rate expectations.The US market faces a pivotal week with the final Powell-led CPI report expected on Tuesday, ahead of the Fed Chair handover to Kevin Warsh on May 15.Geopolitical tensions remain high following US/Iran strikes, though a 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was announced.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a bearish technical breakdown, with a cooler CPI likely to lead to a move toward the 96.901 support level.Read More: Mixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market CheckWeek in Review: Equities Defy Gravity as Oil and Rates RealignThe start of May has left market participants with more questions than answers. In a striking display of resilience or perhaps denial, US stock markets have surged to fresh highs, seemingly shrugging off the geopolitical tensions that briefly rattled indices mid-war.However, this "risk-on" euphoria sits in uncomfortable contrast with the reality of the energy market. Oil prices have refused to retreat to pre-conflict levels, and interest rate expectations are being recalibrated higher across the board.The disconnect is clear: can equities continue to climb while the cost of capital and energy remain elevated?Geopolitical developments Markets continue to hang on every word of US President Donald Trump and the ongoing situation in the Middle East. Markets are rightly on edge heading into the weekend given the tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and the US on Thursday and Friday, May 7 and 8 respectively. Any significant developments over the weekend could drive early week volatility and price action.Late on Friday, President Trump announced a 3 day ceasefire between Russia-Ukraine for the 9th, 10th and 11th of May. Source: TruthSocial Week Ahead: Central Bank Divergence and Inflation Storms Loom Large As we look toward the week starting May 10, the focus remains on geopolitical nut markets, which are also debating whether central banks will follow the market’s hawkish lead or if a reality check is overdue.This makes for interesting viewing and will likely lead to significant market movement.US: The Fed’s Final Changing of the GuardThe coming week is a momentous one for the Federal Reserve. Not only do we face critical data points, but we also mark a transition in leadership. Jerome Powell is set to conclude his tenure as Fed Chair, with Kevin Warsh scheduled to take the reins on Friday, May 15.On the data front, Tuesday’s Inflation report is the headliner. We are bracing for a second consecutive 0.9% MoM print at the headline level, largely fueled by the surge in gasoline and diesel prices. While the core reading is expected at a more modest 0.3%, the annual rate could push up to 2.7%. The Fed has recently made a concerted effort to talk up rate expectations, ditching their previous easing bias as the US economy continues to hold up better than its peers. However, with labor supply growth effectively stalled due to collapsing net migration (projected at near zero this year), the "hot" jobs numbers we’ve seen may be less a sign of strength and more a symptom of a tightening supply constraint.UK & Europe: A Strange Case of MispricingAcross the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) find themselves in different boats, though markets are currently pricing them as if they are in the same storm.Markets are pricing in a significantly more hawkish path for the UK than the Eurozone—a move that looks overdone. While the UK is energy-dependent, this is not a repeat of the 2022 gas crisis; natural gas prices remain relatively contained compared to the spike in oil. We believe the ECB is actually more likely to deliver on its hawkish rhetoric in June, whereas the BoE may view "not cutting" as enough tightening for now. Watch the Euro and Sterling closely as this pricing discrepancy begins to unwind.Asia: Inflation Fallout and Trade TensionsIn Asia, the focus is squarely on the fallout from the Middle East through the lens of inflation.China: We are looking for trade data on Saturday and inflation data on Monday. Exports are expected to grow by roughly 6.5%, but the real story lies in the PPI, which is accelerating. Markets will be hyper-sensitive to how China handles the impact of higher energy costs and the lingering effects of the "Liberation Day" tariffs.India: Expect a modest rise in inflation. While gasoline prices remain capped by the government, the second-round effects of oil prices are starting to bleed into food costs, which could test the Reserve Bank of India’s patience. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY) The US Dollar Index (DXY) finds itself in a precarious position as we head into a pivotal week. Between the transition in Fed leadership and a looming inflation print, the technicals are flashing signs of exhaustion, suggesting the "Dollar King" crown might be slipping.On the daily timeframe, the indexes break below its ascending channel, signaling a shift in momentum remains intact.We are currently seeing the DXY trade below key Moving Averages:The 50-day MA (Yellow) at 98.459 and the 200-day MA (Purple) at 98.538 have converged, effectively acting as a "ceiling" for recent price action.The fact that price is struggling to reclaim these MAs suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside in the near term.Support Watch: The immediate floor sits at 97.702. A daily close below this level would confirm the Double Top and likely open the trapdoor for a deeper correction toward the 96.901 handle.Scenarios for the Week AheadGiven the fundamental backdrop of the final Powell-led CPI print and the handover to Kevin Warsh, I see two primary technical paths:Scenario 1: The Bearish Confirmation (High Probability)If Tuesday’s US CPI data comes in cooler than expected—or even just meets estimates—the DXY is likely to break the 97.702 support. This would confirm the Daily Double Top and trigger a move toward 96.901. In this scenario, the convergence of the 50 and 200 SMAs on the daily will remain the ultimate barrier, cementing a medium-term bearish outlook.Scenario 2: The "Sticky Inflation" Spike (Low Probability)Should we get a significant beat in inflation (above the 0.9% MoM forecast), we could see a knee-jerk spike in the Dollar. The bulls would need to reclaim and hold above 98.729 on a daily closing basis to invalidate the bearish setup. However, even with a spike, the psychological resistance at 100.00 remains a massive hurdle that would likely attract heavy selling.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, May 8, 2026 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) The market is currently betting on a "perfect landing" where growth stays firm despite rising rates. However, with the energy channel remaining hot and central banks diverging, the margin for error is becoming razor-thin. Stay disciplined and watch those support levels.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Copper futures rose above USD 6.29 per pound, nearing record highs, supported by expectations of long-term demand from artificial intelligence, power grids, clean energy and electrification.Supply concerns are increasing due to disruptions in sulfuric acid availability, China’s export ban and weaker copper production in Chile, which fell by around 6% year on year in Q1 2026.The Democratic Republic of Congo could strengthen its role in the global copper market through a major China-backed mining project that may produce 200,000–500,000 tonnes of copper per year. Copper futures prices rose above USD 6.29 per pound, approaching the record levels seen at the end of January. The increase is driven by a combination of two factors: expectations of long-term demand growth and mounting concerns about disruptions in production and supply. Copper, as a metal essential to energy, industry, infrastructure and new technologies, remains one of the most important commodities in the global economic transformation. Demand supported by Artificial Intelligence, energy and industrial transformationInvestors assume that demand for copper will continue to grow for many years. Key sources of demand are expected to include investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, modernization of power grids and the development of clean energy. The metal is essential in cables, installations, data centers, transmission systems, electric vehicles and many technologies linked to the electrification of the economy.Lower energy prices have provided additional support for the market, easing concerns about the condition of the global economy and demand for industrial metals. As a result, copper has gained importance as a commodity that connects investors’ short-term expectations with long-term technological and infrastructure trends. Copper futures on COMEX, daily timeframe, source: TradingView Sulfuric acid problems increase supply-side riskThe rise in copper prices is being driven not only by strong demand prospects, but also by concerns over the availability of raw materials needed for its processing. Particular market attention is focused on sulfuric acid, which is used in the copper refining process. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of this component, while China has introduced an export ban from May until at least December.Beijing’s decision could reduce the global seaborne sulfuric acid market by around 3 million tonnes. Chile, Indonesia and India are the most exposed to the effects of these restrictions. The significance of the problem is highlighted by the situation in Chile, where copper production fell by around 6% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. Restrictions on access to sulfuric acid could therefore further hamper efforts to increase refined copper supply at a time when the market expects rising demand.Congo could strengthen its position in the global copper marketAgainst the backdrop of growing supply tensions, the Democratic Republic of Congo is gaining increasing importance. Chinese state-owned company China Railway Group Ltd., known as CREC, plans to develop one of the potentially largest copper projects in the world there. Company representatives met with Congo’s Minister of Mines, Louis Watum, to discuss the investment, which is being carried out in cooperation with a CREC subsidiary and Congolese state-owned diamond company MIBA.The planned mine would be located in Kasai-Oriental province, outside the traditional copper-mining region of Katanga. Its target output could range from 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes of copper per year. This scale would make the project one of the more significant mining ventures in the global copper market.Chinese investment has strategic significanceThe project in Congo has not only economic but also geopolitical significance. President Félix Tshisekedi is expected to support the rapid launch of the investment, which could further strengthen the country’s position as the world’s second-largest copper supplier after Chile. Copper production in Congo has more than tripled over the past decade, and Chinese companies currently account for the majority of the country’s output.The development of a new mine would demonstrate the further strengthening of China’s influence in Africa’s raw materials sector. At the same time, the United States is trying to increase its presence in Congolese mining, indicating that access to copper is becoming an increasingly important element of global economic competition. This commodity is crucial for energy, electromobility, industry and infrastructure, which is why control over its sources is gaining strategic importance. Copper price outlook remains positiveThe current situation in the copper market combines strong demand fundamentals with growing supply-side uncertainty. On the one hand, the development of artificial intelligence, power grids, electromobility and clean energy could support demand for the metal for many years. On the other hand, disruptions in sulfuric acid supplies, falling production in Chile and competition for new sources of raw material are increasing the risk of supply constraints.Under these conditions, upward pressure on copper prices may persist. The planned investment in the Democratic Republic of Congo shows that the largest economies and commodity companies are preparing for a long-term increase in the importance of this metal. Copper remains one of the key raw materials of the future, and its market is increasingly reflecting both the pace of technological transformation and geopolitical competition for access to strategic resources. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver and Gold are hesitant, but forming a basis for a longer-term restart of their bull-trendsAfter failing to extend lower, sellers are now exhausting their capacities, but breakouts will be requiredIntraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD Metals have been trading in confusion since the beginning of the war, with particular inflation and price action dynamics adding to the doubts.In recent trading, the Oil to Gold inverted relationship has somewhat abated and this forms the path to newer narratives for the precious commodities Market. Gold vs WTI Crude Inverse Correlation – Source: TradingView. May 8, 2026 While the price action has remained mostly sideways, a few metals have begun to reject their selling attempts, providing proof that the general bear trend is exhausting.The best example is seen in Copper, breaking its War highs throughout this week (Check out our latest analysis), but also Silver, bouncing back close to 10% off of its 2026 year-beginning prices.Weekly momentum are showing some strong signs, as can be seen with the Gold weekly chart. The RSI has completely stopped its downward trajectory, supported by the huge weekly hammer, and is now looking to confirm its rise – It wouldn't be surprising to see strong action in the asset class in coming weeks. Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart, May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts. Read More:Tech continues to pull Stock Markets higher, S&P 500 at 7,400 – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsMixed feelings after the April Non-Farm Payrolls beat and Consumer Sentiment miss – Market CheckChart alert: Nasdaq 100 bulls still in control above 28,280 key support amid US-Iran tensionsGold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has officially broken out of its descending channel formed since April 17.While the picture is still quite rangy ($4,500 to $4,900), the recent breakout attempt pulled back to the 4H 200-period MA ($4,663) before bouncing higher, helping for chances of a break-retest pattern at the mid-range pivot.To confirm on the intraday, look for a break above $4,760; the action gets especially more bullish above $4,900.Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:$4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:4H 200-period MA ($4,663)December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (bearish below)Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100Next Support $3,880 to $4,000Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, May 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver might have gotten slightly ahead of itself, pushing way above its key moving averages, towards $82 highs before forming a short-term double top.In the event of a retracement from here, bulls will want to see a stall around the $77 to $78 pivot in order to form better chances of a push to new highs.Breaking $84 puts the odds for a longer run bull trend back in shape.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Pivot highs $80 - $81.50$84 Major levelKey Range Resistance $90 to $92$96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)Current Record $121.67Support Levels:Pivot lows $77 - $78Micro support $74 - $76$70 - $71.50 April Support (Bearish below)December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades and a blessed weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 remains in a bullish structure despite short-term volatility driven by US–Iran geopolitical tensions and profit-taking, with price action stabilising above key support at 28,280.Market sentiment was briefly pressured by conflict-related headlines, but losses were largely recovered as ceasefire stability expectations improved and risk appetite returned.Market breadth is healthy but not euphoric, with broad participation across components and technical indicators supporting near-term upside continuation. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Nasdaq 100: AI bubble fears overblown, bullish trend intact above 26,760 key intraday support”, published on 29 April 2026.The US stock market saw profit-taking on Thursday, 7 May 2026, as traders grew increasingly concerned over the fragility of the month-long US-Iran ceasefire after both sides exchanged fire.Market sentiment was further unsettled by uncertainty surrounding Washington’s latest proposal to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has yet to respond to.The leading Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.3% intraday from its all-time intraday high of 28,825, but trimmed its losses to end Thursday’s US session with a marginal loss of only 0.1% and underperformed against other US stock indices; S&P 500 (-0.4%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.6%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.6%).In today's (Friday, 8 May 2026), the Nasdaq 100 E-min futures recovered by 0.5% at this time of writing and almost recovered Thursday’s US session losses, reinforced by US President Trump's remarks that stated the ceasefire agreement “remains intact”.Aside from this piece of “Trump’s positive news flow”, several technical elements are also advocating for another potential round of fresh short-term bullish impulsive up move sequence for the Nasdaq 100.Let’s decipher them.Nasdaq 100’s market breadth remains healthy, not euphoric Fig. 1: Nasdaq 100 component stocks above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Even though in the past four weeks, the performance of the Nasdaq 100 has been primarily driven by several AI-related semiconductors and chip stocks such as Intel (+111%), SanDisk (+87%), and Advanced Micro Devices (+87%), the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages is steady at 61% and 59%, not yet at euphoric levels of 80%-90%.In addition, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above the key 200-day moving averages has increased steadily from 47% on 15 April 2026 to 57% as of Thursday, 7 May 2026 (below euphoric levels of 80%-90%), which indicates that a broader set of Nasdaq 100 is taking part in this ongoing rally since the end of March 2026 (see Fig. 1).Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures).Nasdaq 100 – Looking to break above 28,890 with bullish momentum Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 8 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bullish above 28,280 short-term pivotal support within an uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).Resistances: 28,860/890, 29,150, and 29,505/615Next supports: 27,850, 27,540, and 27,255Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the Nasdaq 100 Price actions continue to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low.Current price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD index are trading at the upper half of the ascending channel, with the upper boundary of the channel coming in at around 29,505.The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways GBP/USD remains supported despite renewed US-Iran tensions, with traders now closely focused on upcoming US labour market data and University of Michigan consumer sentiment figures that could drive near-term volatility in the pair.Intermarket dynamics favour further upside for sterling, as the UK-US implied interest rate spread has steepened significantly, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may stay relatively more hawkish than the Federal Reserve.Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish reversal is underway, with GBP/USD rebounding from its ascending channel support, holding above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while momentum indicators point to strengthening upside momentum above the 1.3530 support zone. After the sterling hit a 2-month high of 1.3658 on 1 May 2026 against the US dollar, the GBP/USD has traded sideways, and on Thursday, 7 May 2026, it declined by 0.2% to print an intraday low of 1.1723 on the backdrop of an uptick in US-Iran tension after both sides exchanged fire.In addition to the latest developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, where markets are awaiting Iran’s response to Washington’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, traders will also be closely watching several key US economic releases today that may influence the short-term direction of GBP/USD.These include the April non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data at 8:30 pm SGT, followed by the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for May at 10:00 pm SGT.Interestingly, intermarket and technical factors are now supporting a potential bullish reversal in the GBP/USD at this juncture.Let’s unpack in greater detail.The UK/US implied interest rate policy curve spread has steepened Fig. 1: UK-US implied interest rate policy curve spread as of 7 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Interest rate futures markets indicate that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely hike in July after being on hold at 3.75% since December 2025.The current Eurozone/US implied interest rate policy curve spread for the period from June 2026 to September 2026 has steepened significantly.In addition, the curve has also shifted upwards, with the current September 2026 reading standing at 0.66% compared to 0.16% three months ago (see Fig. 1).These observations suggest that the BoE is likely to be less dovish or more hawkish than the Fed, which in turn could provide support for a potentially firmer GBP/USD.The monthly implied future monetary policy interest rate curves for the UK and the US are calculated using short-term interest rate futures that are highly sensitive to the expectations on these countries’ central banks' respective monetary policies.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the GBP/USD from a technical analysis perspective.GBP/USD – Holding above 1.3530, watch the 1.3640/3665 range resistance next Fig. 2: GBP/USD minor trend as of 8 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Bullish above 1.3530 short-term pivotal support within an uptrend phase (see Fig. 2).Resistances: 1.3590, 1.3640/3665 (upside trigger), and 1.3730Next supports: 1.3490 and 1.3450Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on GBP/USD Price actions have managed to stage a rebound after a retest on the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from the 6 April 2026 low.Price actions continue to trade above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which support an ongoing medium-term uptrend phase.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just exited from its oversold region (below the 30 level) in today’s Asian session (Friday, 8 May 2026). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for May 7 Markets jumped to new highs early this morning as investors felt hopeful about diplomatic progress. But by midday, those gains disappeared. It became clear that risk assets had risen too quickly, and overall sentiment turned negative.Tensions in the Gulf quickly returned, pulling markets back down. Optimism faded after reports that Iran had fired missiles at US Navy destroyers, apparently in response to US strikes on Iranian tankers. Iranian state TV also reported anti-aircraft activity and explosions over Tehran, adding more uncertainty to the trading floor.Confusion about the blockade added to the day’s volatility. A US official told Al Jazeera that reports about the US military preparing to restart “Operation Freedom,” the mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, were completely false. These conflicting stories made WTI crude oil prices swing wildly, eventually pulling them back down toward $95.Stocks could not hold up after the reversal. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached impressive new intraday highs at 7,385 and 28,850 but lost momentum and ended the day lower. The Dow Jones also dropped more than 300 points, falling below the 50,000 mark by the close.With the peace rally over and geopolitical tensions rising again, tomorrow’s important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could be a major turning point for Wall Street as investors look for direction. Read More:Have Stock Markets met their top? – Pre-FOMC Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 LevelsCrude Oil on path to $90 as the peace trade continues – WTI Technical analysisChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averagesKey Earnings releases tomorrow (May 7) Earnings release for May 7, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Global assets took a huge turn around the middle of the session with WTI Crude largely reversing from its huge drop to $90 – Spot the turn around 10:30.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, May 7, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX is back into a large confusion after today's US Dollar reversal along with Crude Oil.The King Dollar is back on the top of the FX board at the end of the session, with the DXY back above 98.00 and exploding after forming a triple bottom.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow welcomes the infamous NFP session along with Canadian Employment.This will come along with many other smaller tier data releases but the 8:30 A.M ET release will be the largest mover of the session (barring some fundamental news regarding the Iran conflict).As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks exploded to new record highs just this morning, but the action has found a brutal stopOptimism regarding the peace process could have found its peak, with traders getting ready for tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls reportExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock benchmarks exploded to fresh record highs just this morning, but the historic price action has hit a brick wall.In a frantic early-session rally, the S&P 500 reached the borderline insane 7,400 mark, the Nasdaq stalled right ahead of the 29,000 milestone, and the Dow Jones just grazed the psychological 50,000 level before failing to withstand the momentum. Approaching these monumental technical milestones, the market clearly got ahead of itself, triggering a sharp and immediate intraday reversal.The overarching optimism regarding the US-Iran peace process appears to have found its peak and this isn't just due to randomness. Daily Market Performance (11:53). May 4, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Traders are aggressively backing off from extreme bullishness as they prepare for tomorrow's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report. Compounding this macroeconomic hesitation are creeping doubts regarding Operation Freedom and its ultimate objectives to secure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainty is back to cast a dark shadow over quite-ecstatic equities; with recent reports indicating that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are officially lifting restrictions on the use of US military bases, the market is sensing a turn in the narrative, fearing potential military preparations rather than purely diplomatic solutions.Crude Oil prices are rallying quite aggressively from here, proof that anxiety is making a swift return to haunt trader sentiment.A post-NFP response will be key to watch for traders and investors, but in the meantime, the recent euphoria from the peace process is rapidly turning into a painful hangover. As we navigate this sudden risk-off shift, let's get ready for tomorrow's NFP data. Dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Crude Oil on path to $90 as the peace trade continues – WTI Technical analysisChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averagesCopper attempts to break its mid-April $6.10 spike – On the way to new ATH? XCU/USD OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (15:17) – Source: TradingView – May 7, 2026 The Market has officially been split, with close to 80% of Stocks trading lower but the heavy weights still doing the heavy lifting.Only Nvidia, Microsoft and the Technology Services sub-sector are fighting the wave of profit-taking gripping Equities in today's action.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones took a sudden turn to the downside, remaining the only Index which failed to breach its early 2026 and actually formed a double top in that process.Often late to the party, the Index does provide a more "realistic" view of current clouds seen in the Macro environment – For example, this was seen after September 2025, where the Index only reached new records as clouds regarding the US Economy dissipated.Turning back to today, as long as the action remains above 49,000, a more rangebound picture is drawing.However, breaking the support opens the way for large downside, with Key supports only found at psychological milestones.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels50,165 morning highs49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsApril 14 Gap Fill Pivot 49,500Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq exploded to new record highs with no one to stop it on its rampage, until the Index stopped itself.Stalling at a key 161.8% fibonacci target (28,850 to 29,000) led to a significant 400-point rejection, the first one since April 29.The action for the index for now stays extremely bullish, but breaking the trendline (28,360) could see a larger corrective phase (27,000 seems like a decent target for now – expect a much larger correction below).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels28,500 psychological resistance28,850 - 29,000 Current ATH ResistanceSupport Levels28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has also met its key fibonacci extensions right below 7,400, and losing its extremely bullish momentum aggressively since.Closing the session below 7,350 opens the door to 7,300, a level that should see equilibrium until the 8:30 A.M. NFP release.A break below 7,230 opens the door for larger downside.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,350 Minor Resistance7,390 - 7,400 Channel extension resistance (morning highs)Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 7,250 to 7,260 Channel lows 7,230 (bearish below)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with the tone increasingly worsening.Safe Trades and May the 4th be with you!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

WTI Oil took a significant hit throughout yesterday's session as Axios revealed a more US-Iran deal under construction, and these flows are extending in today's sessionConfirming its price action below $100, sellers are attempting a push towards $90. Will momentum be enough to break the key level?Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity WTI Crude Oil dropped sharply yesterday after Axios reported that the US and Iran are working on a broad peace deal. The strong selling pressure is continuing into today.After falling 8% yesterday, WTI is down another 5% today. Sellers are clearly getting in control of the market.For months, prices rose steadily due to geopolitical tensions. Now, the trend has quickly shifted to a clear downward move. Now that prices have dropped below the key $100 level, the pressure is falling, and sellers are pushing toward $90. The main question is whether this momentum will break that important support, as momentum becomes slightly oversold and Participants will look to confirm the latest narratives. Peace Deal odds for June 30 – Source: Polymarket The prediction-market odds US-Iran peace deal by June 30 are currently around 55% after remaining around 30% for a while – A peace deal by May 31 is quite optimistic, but the odds are also rising above 40%.Traders are selling oil mainly because negotiations are moving toward an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as confirmed by a report from Al Arabiya . Allowing normal shipping through this key route is a major reason for the drop in oil prices. But for oil to fall another $20 and for gas prices to drop for consumers, a formal deal still needs to be signed.This possible peace will need to be confirmed during the coming weeks of diplomatic talks, which recent statements have hinted at – With the much anticipated Trump-Xi meeting taking place next week, this could be an important date for the Oil Market.Now, let's take a closer look at the technical analysis for WTI Crude to see if sellers can push prices below the $90 support level. Read More:Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averagesAsia open: Stock markets rally on US-Iran peace hopes; tech drives S&P 500 to record highsCopper attempts to break its mid-April $6.10 spike – On the way to new ATH? XCU/USD OutlookUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – May 7, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI has officially formed a decent looking top, with a lower high throughout the past week leading to the ongoing tumble, down 19% since its April 29 top.Now breaking the key $93 Pivot zone with momentum, establishing below this area will be essential to confirm more downside ahead.Higher timeframe traders will want to see a break and close below $90 to confirm.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance LevelsMomentum Support now pivot $93 - $95 (breaking)$98 to $100 Pivotal Resistance$104 next-mini resistance (morning highs!)2022 and Monday highs $117 to $120 (larger channel top)Support Levels$90 Psychological level and past session's lows$87 to $90 mini-Support$82 Friday 17 lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $801H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – May 7, 2026. Source: TradingView Swing trading such erratic Markets remain a fantasy, hence it could always be wiser to capture quick moves and re-assess with the news.The action is currently oversold on most shorter timeframes, a reason why the selloff has somewhat stalled in the last hour. But Traders should still look at these elements:As long as the price action remains below $94.00, bears remain in control.Watch out for minor upside consolidation around here; if the action stays stuck below the level, this adds to odds of a downside break.The selloff should accelerate if heavy volume sales occur below $90.Breaking back above $95 would hint at more rangebound or rallying action ahead (all the way to $103)Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global risk appetite surged on US–Iran peace hopes: Reports of a potential peace memorandum between the US and Iran drove a sharp rally in global equities and a steep decline in oil prices, easing inflation concerns and boosting sentiment across risk assets.Tech and semiconductors powered record equity highs: The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and several Asian indices hit fresh record highs, led by strong momentum in semiconductor stocks after upbeat earnings and AI-related partnership developments involving Intel and AMD.USD weakened while gold and JPY gained: The US dollar fell broadly as geopolitical risk premiums eased, triggering a 3%+ surge in gold above $4,700 and renewed strength in the Japanese yen amid suspected intervention and bearish technical signals on USD/JPY.Chart of the day: USD/JPY has further potential downside pressure below 157.30/157.55 key short-term resistance. Next intermediate supports at 154.65 and 154.05.Top macro headlines US-Iran peace deal hopes: Oil prices slumped and global stocks surged following news that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a memorandum to end the conflict, with the US concluding offensive operations.US equities hit record highs: Bloomberg data highlights the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,259.22. The rally was heavily driven by the semiconductor sector, with Intel jumping 13% on Apple partnership reports and AMD soaring 16.5% after hours.Gold spikes past $4,700: Spot gold climbed over 3% to $4,703/oz, hitting a multi-week high as the prospect of peace dragged down the US Dollar and shifted safe-haven dynamics.Yen volatility persists: JPY rallied 1.8% to around 155.00 per USD on Wednesday, 8 May, Asian session on suspected “stealth intervention”.US ADP Employment beats expectations: Private payrolls increased by 109,000 in April, surpassing the forecast of 99,000, signaling continued labor market tightness that complicates the Fed's easing path.Key macro themes Geopolitical de-escalation & energy Relief: The potential resolution of the Middle East conflict is rapidly pulling the extreme risk premium out of the energy markets. WTI crude falling back toward $100/bbl provides immediate relief to global inflation expectations.The AI semiconductor supercycle: The tech sector continues to decouple from broader macro anxieties. Exceptional earnings beats and strategic partnerships (like Intel/Apple) are reinforcing semiconductors as the primary growth engine for global equities.Dollar weakness and gold reallocation: The sudden drop in the US Dollar (spurred by peace hopes), has triggered an intraday massive capital rotation into gold, which surged around 3% as a preferred alternative asset.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 (+1.5% to 7,365), Nasdaq 100 (+2.1% to 28,599), and Russell 2000 (+1.5% to 2,886) closed at record highs.DJIA (+1.2% to 49,910) lagged. In Europe, the DAX surged 2.1% to 24,918.Fixed Income: The US 30-year Treasury yield fell back below 5% (to 4.98%) as investors locked in rates. The 10-year yield remains anchored at 4.4%.FX: The US Dollar weakened broadly on the US-Iran peace news. The AUD/USD climbed to 0.7238, closing in on a 4-year high on upbeat risk appetite.Commodities: WTI Crude slumped toward $90,50/bbl on the US-Iran developments. Spot Gold spiked 3.2% to $4,703/oz, its highest since late April.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets: An overnight 4.5% jump in the US SOX semiconductor index sets up a positive feedback loop back into key Asian stock markets. Nikkei 225 (+5.4% to 62,720 to hit a fresh all-time high), KOSPI (+0.2% to propel towards a new record high of 7,400), Hang Seng Index (+1.3% to 26,564), China A50 (+0.2% to 15,850 to hit a 52-month high), and STI (+0.3% to 4,944) at this time of writing.Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperformed all regional peers following the rally seen in global stock markets. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has managed to find a floor at around 157.30/157.55 per USD on fears of further intervention,Economic Outlook: The region is expected to benefit significantly from declining energy import costs. If the Middle East peace deal is implemented, it will provide a significant economic boost for major oil importers such as Japan and South Korea.Top 2 events to watch today US Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT: (consensus: 205K, previous week: 189K) Impact: USD, US stock indices, Short-end US TreasuriesEurozone Retail Sales - 5.00 pm SGT: (consensus: -0.3% m/m, Feb: -0.2% m/m) Impact: EUR crosses, DAXOngoing US-Iran Peace Memorandum Developments Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - USD/JPY further downside pressure below 157.30/157.55 Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 7 May 2026 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor “Ascending Wedge” configuration on Wednesday, 6 May 2026. In addition, in today’s opening Asian session (Thursday, 7 May 2026), its hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish momentum condition below the 50 level.These observations suggest the minor downtrend phase of the USD/JPY remains intact. Watch the 157.30/157.55 key short-term pivotal resistance for another potential down leg to expose the next intermediate supports at 154.65 and 154.05 (also the key 200-day moving average) (see Fig 1).However, a clearance and an hourly close above 157.55 negates the bearish tone for a rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 158.10 and 158.60 (the intersection of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for May 6 Today’s sharp market moves confirmed again that when President Trump changes his geopolitical stance, Wall Street doesn't react with half conviction. The ongoing peace rally has been impressive: Even with many ups and downs and conflicting stories since the ceasefire began about a month ago, equity bulls have stayed steady.The trading session opened with strong activity. WTI Crude Oil dropped 8% after Axios reported a new, sustainable path toward a US-Iran peace deal. Throughout the day, no official statements challenged this positive outlook, so risk-on sentiment continued to build.As the market closed, risk assets did not stall their rally a single minute. The Dow Jones reached the 50,000 mark just before the close, for the first time since February 12, and the Nasdaq rose by nearly 2%. Gains also appeared in alternative assets, with precious metals rising and altcoins seeing renewed activity, while Bitcoin and Ethereum stayed mostly flat.As highlighted in our mid-week update, with even Israel reportedly surprised by the rapid development of this deal, market participants are taking this diplomatic advancement very seriously. While President Trump announced a one-week deadline for finalizing the agreement on Fox News, most institutional traders expect that no deal will be signed before Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at their summit on May 14 and 15. Read More:Copper attempts to break its mid-April $6.10 spike – On the way to new ATH? XCU/USD OutlookStocks explode higher; The peace deal is seemingly near – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday OutlookConflicting peace narratives ahead of April labor data – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why a close above $82,133 Is needed to resume the bull runKey Earnings releases tomorrow (May 7) Earnings release for May 7, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's Crude Oil drop was a celebration for all types of assets around Markets, a trend that has persisted throughout the entire conflict.Expect to see this Oil-Market inverted correlation especially more in coming days and weeks.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, May 6, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX traders are finally seeing long awaited momentum and movement in Markets that remained more than muted since early April.The US Dollar naturally led the way down along with the Loonie as Crude Oil dragged the two North American currencies lower, profiting particularly well to APAC monies, which are most affected by the Hormuz situation.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The end-week trading is slowly coming closer and participants are getting ready for some high-tier data releases.There will be some movement for the AUD (Trade Balance) and JPY (BoJ Minutes) during the evening session, and this will be followed with a high importance Retail Sales report in Europe.For the North American session, make sure to track what the Fed Speakers have to say about the ongoing conflict and its effect on inflation.As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are back on the bullish routes as Axios reveals a US-Iran deal shaping upUp 1% across the board, Stock Markets are back in ecstasy, and nothing seems to be stopping the rallyExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US Stock Benchmarks are aggressively back on the bullish route today, energized by breaking reports from Axios revealing that a definitive US-Iran peace deal is finally shaping up.The overnight collapse in crude oil—now plunging roughly 8% on the session—is officially being confirmed by a much softer, highly optimistic geopolitical narrative. Peace Deal odds are rebounding – Source: Polymarket (12:02) Traders are actively preparing for a formalized peace agreement. With reports indicating that even Israel was caught off guard by the rapid pace of these recent diplomatic developments, this could truly be the fundamental confirmation that institutional investors have been praying for since the initial ceasefire was implemented.US stock markets have risen about 1% across the board in the morning session, helped by recent geopolitical relief and Dow Jones is now coming quite close to the 50,000 level for the first time since early February. Daily Market Performance (11:58). May 6, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Wall Street is very optimistic, and the rally continues as investors look ahead to Friday's important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.Furthermore, with the highly anticipated summit between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping rapidly approaching, traders are growing increasingly optimistic. The sheer gravitational pull of this upcoming superpower meeting is keeping markets buoyant, allowing them to completely shrug off the sporadic, early-week Iranian strikes on Gulf nations.Market participants are now aggressively positioning for a pursued, sustained breakout across all major US indexes. However, to keep this historic momentum alive, bulls will need concrete fundamental confirmation from the upcoming macroeconomic train: Friday’s NFP report, followed immediately by crucial CPI and PPI inflation data next Wednesday. Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Why a close above $82,133 Is needed to resume the bull runConflicting peace narratives ahead of April labor data – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateChart alert: China A50 bullish breakout above 6-month resistanceCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:08) – Source: TradingView – May 6, 2026 The market rally is quite explosive, particularly among the highest beta sectors including the ever-so-strong Semiconductors and Tech in general, with Consumer services also marking a huge return after suffering since the beginning of the year.Naturally, Energy and defensive sectors are struggling from the latest narrative, but all of this is pointing to a broad-Index buying with a few local plays in Semis.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is extending to a +1% rise which retested 50,000 yet again without being able to breach the key level.Per candle action is undeniably bullish, with tight bull channels breaching the 4H 50-period MA but looking out to the bigger picture, the price action will have to clearly break above the past week highs to avoid a double top.Breaking 50,000 and closing above confirms the rally to new all-time highs.Rejecting here however would maintain the 1,000 point range, with more bearish potential if the narrative sours.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 Highs (testing, double top?)ATH resistance 50,400 to 50,500All-Time Highs 50,544Support LevelsMajor Pivotal support and range lows – 49,000 to 49,100 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (mid-term bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Even with an overbought RSI, Nasdaq is ruthlessly bouncing to new highs, smashing daily beyond its previous session's record.Reaching the 28,500 level brought with it some profit-taking, but late-trend buyers are bringing the action back to the daily highs.A push beyond the session highs will test the 28,700 peace bull channel lower bound – Watch for reactions around there.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels28,500 psychological resistance (morning highs)28,700 mini-resistance at channel lower bounds29,000 potential resistance 2Support Levels28,000 Major psychological resistance now Pivot (and channel highs)27,500 micro-supportPivotal Support at 27,000 (4H 50-period MA)Mini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also bullying through new record highs, currently testing its key psyhcological levels in a continuous price discovery.Except if the narrative changes, nothing should be barring the road to 7,400.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,350 session highs 7,400 Channel extension potential resistanceSupport LevelsKey support Zone 7,180 - 7,200 (4H 50-period MA)7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with the tone increasingly worsening.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin remains decidedly bullish, holding firm above the key $80,000 psychological support level.The price is in a corrective phase after peaking near $82,800 and is currently testing short-term support levels.A close above $82,133 is needed to immediately resume bullish momentum toward the $85,000 objective.Most Read: Conflicting peace narratives ahead of April labor data – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateBitcoin continues its impressive ascent, hitting fresh highs near the 82800 mark before finding some temporary friction. The overall structure across multiple timeframes remains decidedly bullish, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, supported by key moving averages.H4 Chart: The Macro View The 4-hour chart highlights a strong breakout above the significant psychological level of 80000. This level, which previously acted as a hurdle, has now transitioned into a foundational support zone.The price is currently trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs), confirming the strength of the medium-term trend.While the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a "Bear" divergence tag near the recent peak, this often signals a period of consolidation or a shallow pullback rather than a full reversal in such a strong trending market.The next major objective for bulls on this timeframe remains the 85000 handle.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, May 6, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Assessing the Pullback Dropping down to the 1-hour chart, we see the recent price action in more detail. After peaking just shy of 83000, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. It is currently testing the 50-MA (blue line) near 81000.The 82133 level (purple line) has switched to immediate resistance.For the bullish momentum to resume immediately, we would want to see an hourly candle close back above 82133. Failure to do so might see a deeper retest of the 80000 breakout point, which aligns closely with the ascending trendline support.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, May 6, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) M30 Chart: Intraday Dynamics and Trade Opportunities The 30-minute chart reveals a more aggressive corrective slope. The price has pierced below the 50-MA and is currently hovering around the 81400 area.Potential Trade Opportunities:The Trendline Retest (Long): Aggressive buyers may look for long entries if the price touches the primary ascending trendline (currently intersecting near 80,000 - 80400). A bullish reversal candle (like a hammer or engulfing pattern) at this junction would offer a high-probability entry with a stop-loss potentially just below the trendline.The Breakout Re-entry (Long): For more conservative traders, a break and hold back above the 82133 level would signal that the minor correction is over. A long position on a successful retest of 82133 targets the 82800 recent high and 84000 beyond.Short-term Scalp (Short): Only for the nimble, a sustained move below the 50-MA on the M30 could open a path for a quick scalp toward the 100-MA (yellow line) near 80960.However, shorting into such a strong uptrend carries significant risk.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 82133, 82800, 85000.Support: 80960 (100-MA M30), 80000 (Psychological/Trendline), 78197.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) M30 Chart, May 6, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Bitcoin remains in a "buy the dip" environment. While the RSI indicates that the move was slightly overextended, the technical structure is intact as long as price remains above the 80000 psychological floorFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.