It's been the case for a few weeks now. We start the week with some sense of renewed optimism only for it to be dashed through the coming days and then markets choosing to de-risk into the weekend. Will this week be the same? There's certainly an air of familiarity to it.US president Trump gave Iran a deadline to later today before all hell breaks loose. However, is this all just another empty threat though? We shall see. From overnight and earlier:Trump: Tuesday Iran deadline is 'final deadline'Trump press conference: The entire country can be taken out in one nightIran rejects ceasefire in reply to US via Pakistan, wants permanent end to warIsrael prepares Iran energy strike plans as Trump decision looms on next stepsAs the deadline draws closer to an end, markets are getting anxious and angsty again now. That especially as Iran remains defiant, at least on official channels, that they won't be conceding to Trump's ceasefire proposal.Heading into European trading, oil prices are pushing fresh one-month highs while risk trades are slipping on the day. WTI crude is up over 3% to above $116 now, its highest since the spike on 9 March. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% as the bounce in the past week might start to come undone.As we look to the day ahead, nothing matters more than what will come next on the US-Iran conflict.But the way I see things going, it will be tough for markets to really feel optimistic in the big picture. If Trump really escalates the geopolitical conflict, it will increase the uncertainty and timeline on the war coming to an end. That is unless somehow he incapacitates Iran to the point where the war is over, by some way or miracle.So unless that happens, it's a negative for risk and it doesn't do anything to alleviate the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.And even if whatever military intervention he is planning mainly reaffirms the current status quo, kicking the can down the road is not a solution either. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Apple foldable iPhone faces delays as engineering issues hit test production phaseUS doubts Iran deadline extension as tough response seen as negotiating tactic (Axios)New Zealand Commodity prices jump. Middle East conflict drives near-record ANZ index surgeAustralia spending holds firm as inflation jumps and job ads fallYuan seen strengthening to 6.8 as China resilience offsets seasonal weaknessSpaceX targets record IPO with huge retail allocation and June roadshowWSJ: Hopes fade for deal with Iran ahead of Tuesday-night deadlinePBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8854 (vs. estimate at 6.8773)Anthropic plans $200m AI venture with private equity to drive adoptionExplosion & fire near Panama Canal entrance sparks scrutiny. Shipping routes stay on edgeJapanese Household Spending February 2026 softens m/m and falls y/yAustralia services PMI falls into contraction as costs surge, demand weakensSaudi defence ministry says it has intercepted and destroyed 7 ballistic missiles. Oil up.Blue Owl slump deepens as redemption pressures expose cracks in private credit.HSBC sees equity buy signal but warns 4.5% yields pose broad market riskICYMI: Fed’s Goolsbee, Hammack warn inflation risks rising as energy shock bitesVia CNN: Israel prepares Iran energy strike plans as Trump decision looms on next stepsinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 6 Apr:Trump's ultimatum to Iran sparks market turmoilMorgan Stanley says US stock correction largely done. Rates the final hurdle before higherMajor US stock indices close today with gains to start the new trading weekAt a glance:Oil pushes higher toward USD 115/bbl as Trump deadline looms • Middle East escalation intensifies with strikes across Iran, Saudi, Israel • Missile activity hits key Saudi industrial hub at Jubail • US signals limited appetite for further deadline extensions • Iran response seen as “tough” but still a negotiating tactic • Pentagon briefing cancelled, adding to uncertainty • USD firms modestly; FX ranges relatively containedOil extended its gains, with WTI crude futures pushing above USD 115/bbl as markets moved closer to President Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline on Iran, while geopolitical tensions continued to escalate across the region.Overnight developments pointed to a broadening conflict footprint. Explosions were reported in Bahrain, while sirens sounded in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province. Iranian sources flagged renewed attacks on infrastructure, including an airport in Kashan, while Israel reportedly approved an updated list of Iranian energy and infrastructure targets as contingency planning should diplomacy fail.The most significant development appeared to be strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail industrial hub, a critical centre for petrochemicals and energy production that accounts for roughly 7% of the Kingdom’s GDP. While Saudi authorities said they intercepted seven ballistic missiles targeting the eastern region, debris reportedly fell near energy facilities and damage assessments remain ongoing. Videos suggest it was more than debris, with strikes visible. The strike underscores a notable escalation, given the relative scarcity of successful attacks on core Saudi infrastructure compared with other Gulf states.Elsewhere, regional spillover risks continued to build. Reports indicated US-linked targets were struck in Kuwait and Iraq, including a drone strike on a US base in Baghdad, while Israel activated air raid sirens across multiple southern locations following warnings of further Iranian missile launches.On the policy front, the cancellation of a scheduled Pentagon briefing featuring Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine added to the sense of uncertainty around next steps. Meanwhile, Axios reported that US officials are increasingly doubtful about extending the current deadline again, suggesting patience within the administration is fading. However, Axios continued, the US continues to interpret Iran’s “tough” response as a negotiating tactic rather than a rejection, indicating that backchannel discussions remain active. Importantly, Washington retains flexibility, with the potential to delay military action if a credible path to a deal emerges.Away from geopolitics, Japan’s household spending data disappointed on an annual basis, while China’s yuan strengthened to its firmest level in nearly three years. Broader FX moves were relatively contained, with the USD edging higher against major peers. Asia-Pacific equites edged slightly positive (Nikkei down, KOSPI up, China up).Overall, markets remain tightly anchored to geopolitical developments, with oil leading the price action as the deadline approaches.History is on the side of the TACO. Will this time be different? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Engineering hurdles threaten to delay Apple’s foldable iPhone rollout as EVT issues emerge.Summary:Apple’s foldable iPhone facing engineering delays Issues arise during EVT (test production phase) Suppliers warned of possible schedule shifts April–May key window to resolve challenges Initial production targeted at 7–8M units Premium positioning limits early volumeApple’s long-anticipated entry into the foldable smartphone market is facing engineering hurdles that could delay its production timeline, according to sources cited by Nikkei Asia. The issues have surfaced during the engineering verification testing (EVT) phase, a critical stage in Apple’s multi-step product development process where design and manufacturability are rigorously validated before scaling up production.The challenges are described as more complex than initially expected, with suppliers reportedly alerted to the possibility of schedule adjustments. While the company continues to progress through its standard production pipeline, unresolved engineering constraints—not component shortages, are emerging as the primary bottleneck.The April to early May period is now viewed as a key window for Apple to resolve these issues. Failure to do so could push back mass production timelines and, in turn, delay shipments of what is expected to be one of the company’s most significant product innovations in recent years.Apple had been planning an initial production run of approximately 7–8 million foldable units, representing less than 10% of its broader new iPhone lineup for the 2026 cycle. This relatively modest volume reflects a deliberate strategy to position the foldable device as a premium offering, rather than a mass-market product at launch.The limited scale also suggests Apple is taking a cautious approach to entering the foldable segment, prioritising product quality and user experience over aggressive early adoption. However, the current engineering setbacks highlight the technical complexity of foldable hardware, particularly in areas such as durability, hinge design, and display reliability.Overall, while delays at this stage are not uncommon in Apple’s tightly controlled development process, the situation underscores the execution risks associated with bringing new form factors to market, especially in a segment where competitors have already established a foothold. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US signals fading patience on Iran deadline but keeps door open to last-minute deal.Summary:US doubts another deadline extension Iran’s response seen as tough but tactical White House views stance as negotiating posture Trump open to any deal outcome Military action may still be delayed if talks progress Situation remains finely balanced between escalation and diplomacyFresh commentary from US officials, cited by Axios, suggests rising uncertainty around the next phase of the US-Iran standoff, with the window for diplomacy narrowing but not yet closed.According to a US official, Washington has doubts about extending the current deadline again, signalling that patience within the administration may be wearing thin after repeated delays. This raises the risk that previously postponed military action could move back into focus if diplomatic progress stalls.At the same time, while the Iranian response to recent US proposals has been characterised as “tough”, the White House is interpreting this not as an outright rejection, but rather as a negotiating tactic aimed at extracting concessions. This distinction is important, as it suggests that backchannel engagement remains active and that both sides may still be probing for a workable compromise.US officials also indicated that President Trump is willing to accept a deal that can be reached, underscoring a pragmatic approach to negotiations. That said, there is lingering uncertainty over whether Tehran is prepared to finalise an agreement, particularly given the mixed signals seen in recent weeks, with Iran alternating between denying talks and acknowledging indirect communication through intermediaries.Crucially, the US is keeping optionality around military action. Officials noted that Trump could still delay any planned operation against Iran if there is a credible pathway toward an agreement. This reinforces the now-familiar dual-track strategy of maintaining pressure while leaving the door open for diplomacy.Overall, the latest messaging points to a finely balanced situation. While the tone suggests increasing urgency and some erosion of willingness to extend timelines, the presence of ongoing negotiations and conditional flexibility on military action indicates that a deal remains possible, albeit far from guaranteed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Middle East supply shock drives broad commodity surge, pushing ANZ index near record highs.Summary:Commodity prices surged in March amid Middle East conflict ANZ index rose 4.1% m/m, near record highs Gains broad-based; dairy, aluminium led Supply fears triggered precautionary buying UAE smelter damage tightened aluminium supply NZD weakness boosted local price index to recordGlobal commodity prices surged sharply in March, with the ANZ World Commodity Price Index rising 4.1% m/m, driven primarily by the escalation of the Middle East conflict that began in late February. The move pushed the index to its second-highest monthly level on record in world price terms, surpassed only by the spike seen at the onset of the Russia–Ukraine war in March 2022. The breadth of the gains underscores the scale of the shock, with nearly all major commodity categories rising over the month.Dairy prices led the advance, climbing 5.9% m/m as importers accelerated purchases to secure supply amid concerns over potential disruptions to global trade flows. While underlying milk supply remains relatively healthy, the current surge reflects precautionary demand rather than structural shortages, suggesting some risk of reversal once conditions stabilise. Industrial metals also saw strong upside, with aluminium prices jumping 9.8% m/m. This was partly driven by direct supply disruption, after a major smelter in the UAE sustained damage in late March. Given Gulf producers account for roughly 8–9% of global aluminium output, the incident has tightened supply expectations and reinforced upward price pressure. Agricultural markets also contributed, with meat and fibre prices rising 2.4% m/m amid firm global demand and constrained supply conditions. Meanwhile, forestry prices rose modestly, though margins remain under pressure due to rising shipping costs linked to higher fuel prices.The New Zealand dollar weakened over the month, averaging around 2.8% lower against the US dollar. This amplified gains in local currency terms, pushing the NZD Commodity Price Index up 6.4% m/m to a record high.Overall, the March data highlights how rapidly geopolitical shocks are feeding through into global commodity markets, with both direct supply disruptions and precautionary demand combining to drive a broad-based price surge. ---ps. Reserve Bank of New Zealand expected on hold tomorrow. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia data show resilient spending but rising inflation and softer labour demand.Summary:Household spending +0.3% m/m in Feb, ahead of expectations Annual spending growth steady at 4.6% Services spending strong, goods modest Data predates energy-driven inflation shock TD-MI inflation gauge surges 1.3% m/m in March Signals renewed inflation pressures, likely fuel-driven Job ads fall 3.1% m/m, reversing prior gain Labour demand softening, especially in consumer sectorsAustralian household spending showed continued resilience through February, though incoming data suggest rising inflation pressures and early softening in labour demand could complicate the outlook.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the Monthly Household Spending Indicator rose 0.3% m/m in February, matching January’s pace and slightly exceeding expectations. Annual growth held steady at 4.6%, indicating consumption remained firm despite a still-challenging cost-of-living backdrop.The detail pointed to a continued shift toward services. Spending on services rose 0.5%, led by travel, accommodation and recreational activities, while goods spending edged up just 0.1%, supported by essentials such as food, health-related items and recreation goods. The data suggest households are still willing to spend, particularly on experiences, even as real income pressures persist.However, the spending data predates a sharp escalation in global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which is expected to feed through to both inflation and consumption in coming months.That inflation impulse is already starting to show. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge surged 1.3% m/m in March, a sharp reversal from the prior 0.2% decline and one of the strongest monthly increases in recent years. The jump points to mounting price pressures, likely driven by fuel and energy-related costs, and reinforces the risk that inflation could re-accelerate after showing signs of moderation earlier in the year.At the same time, labour market indicators are showing tentative signs of cooling. The ANZ-Indeed Job Ads fell 3.1% m/m in March, reversing a strong 3.2% increase in February and slipping slightly below year-ago levels. The decline was concentrated in consumer-facing sectors such as retail, healthcare and education, while more specialised roles in engineering and project management held up.Notably, job ads in sectors directly exposed to global trade disruptions, such as logistics and transport, were broadly stable, suggesting the impact of geopolitical tensions has yet to fully flow through to hiring decisions.Taken together, the data paint a mixed picture. Household demand remains resilient, but inflation pressures are building again, while labour demand is showing early signs of softening. This combination points toward a more stagflationary backdrop, where growth moderates even as price pressures intensify.For the Reserve Bank of Australia, the implications are clear. While activity has not yet rolled over, the renewed inflation pulse—particularly if sustained by energy costs—reinforces the case for keeping policy restrictive, even as forward-looking indicators suggest the economy may begin to lose momentum. Next RBA meeting is the first week of May. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Yuan seen strengthening despite seasonal headwinds as fundamentals and flows dominate. Earlier:PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8854, the strongest, for CNY, in nearly 3 years.Summary:Strategists see yuan strengthening to ~6.8/USD in Q2 Defies typical seasonal weakness from tourism and dividends Currency up ~3% in Q1 vs peers Strong trade performance and widening surplus supportive Large FX reserves and undervaluation key pillars Limited exposure to energy shock vs peers Iran conflict volatility not derailing yuan strength Increasingly viewed as regional safe-havenChina’s currency is increasingly being seen as a relative outperformer in Asia, with strategists expecting the yuan to defy its usual seasonal weakness and strengthen further in the coming months.Analysts at TD Securities and Credit Agricole CIB forecast the yuan to appreciate toward 6.8 per dollar in the second quarter, supported by improving domestic fundamentals and resilience to external shocks, including the ongoing Iran conflict.The call challenges a well-established seasonal pattern. Historically, the yuan tends to weaken in the second quarter as outbound tourism picks up and dividend-related foreign exchange demand rises. However, strategists argue that this year’s backdrop is materially different, with stronger underlying flows offsetting those pressures.The currency has already demonstrated notable strength, gaining roughly 3% in the first quarter on a relative basis against its peers. That performance reflects a combination of solid trade dynamics and a widening current account surplus, as exports remain firm despite global uncertainty.Strategists including Eddie Cheung at Credit Agricole, Wee Khoon Chong at BNY, and Alex Loo at TD Securities point to several structural supports. These include China’s large foreign exchange reserves, continued accumulation of external surpluses, and relatively limited exposure to energy price shocks compared with other economies.Crucially, the yuan is also seen as undervalued on multiple metrics, providing additional room for appreciation as global investors reassess positioning across emerging market currencies.The broader geopolitical environment is also shaping flows. While the Iran conflict has injected volatility into global markets, particularly through energy channels, China’s position as a major importer with significant reserves and controlled capital flows has helped insulate its currency. In this context, the yuan is increasingly being viewed as a relative safe harbour within the region.Taken together, the outlook suggests a shift in the yuan’s traditional behaviour. Rather than weakening on seasonal factors, the currency may instead benefit from a combination of strong external balances, policy stability, and relative insulation from global shocks, supporting further gains through the second quarter. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SpaceX gears up for record IPO with massive retail allocation and June roadshow.Summary:SpaceX targets late May prospectus, early June roadshow Plans major global IPO with potential $75bn raise Valuation could reach ~$1.75 trillion Retail investors to play central role in allocation 1,500 retail investors to be invited to dedicated event Broad international retail distribution planned 125 analysts to be briefed ahead of roadshow Could become largest IPO in historySpaceX is preparing to launch what could become the largest initial public offering in history, with new details pointing to an aggressive timeline and an unprecedented push to include retail investors at scale.According to sources familiar with internal discussions, the company plans to publicly file its IPO prospectus in late May, before kicking off a formal roadshow during the week of June 8. Ahead of that launch, SpaceX is expected to convene approximately 125 analysts from its underwriting syndicate, signalling the start of a highly coordinated global marketing effort.A defining feature of the offering is set to be its unusually large retail allocation. SpaceX executives have emphasised that individual investors will play a central role in the transaction, with plans to invite around 1,500 retail participants to a dedicated investor event shortly after the roadshow begins. The company is also exploring broad international distribution, targeting retail demand across key markets including the UK, Europe, Australia, Canada, Japan and South Korea.Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen has indicated that the emphasis on retail participation is deliberate, reflecting both the company’s strong public following and a strategic effort to reshape traditional IPO allocation dynamics. Sources say the final structure of the offering, including the precise size of the retail tranche, will be determined closer to launch.The deal is expected to be historic in scale. SpaceX is reportedly targeting a capital raise of around $75 billion, which could imply a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion. If achieved, the listing would surpass previous IPO records and mark a defining moment for equity capital markets.The syndicate briefing marks a key milestone in the process, bringing together investment banks for the first time as preparations accelerate. It also reinforces the broader narrative that SpaceX intends to “rewrite the IPO playbook,” particularly through its focus on direct engagement with retail investors.Beyond the mechanics of the deal, the IPO is likely to serve as a major test of global equity appetite, particularly in a market environment shaped by geopolitical volatility and shifting interest rate expectations. Strong retail participation could amplify demand dynamics, while also introducing new considerations around pricing, allocation, and aftermarket trading behaviour. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Negotiators see low odds of Iran meeting Trump’s Hormuz deadline U.S. may target bridges and power plants if talks fail Pattern of ultimatum → strikes or extensions seen in past Iranian officials expect continued military pressure regardless of talks Ceasefire efforts ongoing but limited progress Trump signalling both openness to talks and readiness to escalate Final decision on strikes could come Tuesday evening Strait of Hormuz remains key global energy chokepointHopes for a last-minute agreement between the United States and Iran are fading ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of a renewed escalation in the conflict.Negotiators close to the discussions are increasingly pessimistic that Tehran will meet Washington’s demands in time, with officials warning that the gap between the two sides remains too wide to bridge before the 8 p.m. deadline. The failure to reach a deal would likely trigger a new phase of U.S. military action, with Trump having repeatedly signalled that Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, could be targeted.The current standoff follows a familiar pattern. During his second term, Trump has on multiple occasions issued ultimatums to Iran, paired with explicit threats of military action. In previous instances, those deadlines have either resulted in strikes or been extended at the last minute, leaving both allies and adversaries uncertain about the ultimate outcome. Iranian officials are reportedly anticipating a similar sequence this time, expecting continued U.S. and Israeli military pressure even if diplomatic channels remain open.Behind the scenes, efforts to secure a ceasefire have intensified. Senior U.S. officials, including JD Vance, alongside regional intelligence figures, are pushing for a breakthrough. However, progress has been limited, with Iranian negotiators signalling scepticism that the U.S. will halt military operations even if talks advance.Publicly, Trump struck a mixed tone, saying negotiations were proceeding “in good faith” while reiterating that failure to comply would result in sweeping military action. Privately, some U.S. officials suggest the administration is preparing for escalation, with expectations that final decisions on strikes could be made as early as Tuesday evening.At the same time, there remains a degree of optionality. Trump retains the ability to extend the deadline, a move he has used previously to prolong negotiations. Markets and policymakers alike are therefore watching for signals not just on the outcome, but on the timing and sequencing of any decision. The stakes remain high. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy flows, and any disruption, or escalation targeting Iranian infrastructure, would have immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and broader financial market volatility.Not this time? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. The 6.8854 rate is the strongest, for CNY, in nearly 3 years. PBOC injects 500mn yuan via 78pday reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Anthropic plans ~$200m investment in AI-focused PE venture Total raise could reach ~$1bn with major buyout firms involved Platform aims to deploy AI tools across PE portfolio companies Focus on automation and enterprise-scale integration Competes with similar initiative being explored by OpenAI PE firms seen as ideal channel for scaling AI adoption Signals shift from AI experimentation to monetisation phase Consulting + deployment model emerging as key revenue driverWall Street Journal report (gated). AI developer Anthropic is in discussions to invest roughly $200 million into a new private-equity-backed venture aimed at accelerating enterprise adoption of artificial intelligence tools, according to people familiar with the matter.The proposed initiative, which could raise up to $1 billion in total funding, is expected to include participation from major buyout firms such as Blackstone, General Atlantic, and Hellman & Friedman. The structure would effectively create a dedicated platform to deploy AI solutions across private-equity portfolio companies, positioning Anthropic at the centre of a growing push to monetise AI in the corporate sector.The venture is expected to operate as a hybrid consulting and implementation arm, helping businesses integrate Anthropic’s AI tools, particularly its Claude models, into core operations. The focus extends beyond incremental productivity gains, with an emphasis on automating broader business functions across industries.The move highlights an intensifying race among leading AI firms to capture enterprise demand. Anthropic and OpenAI are increasingly targeting corporate clients as a key revenue driver, as adoption shifts from experimentation toward large-scale deployment. OpenAI is reportedly pursuing a similar strategy, exploring its own joint venture model with private-equity partners to embed AI tools directly within portfolio companies.Private-equity-backed businesses represent a particularly attractive entry point. These firms are typically under pressure to improve efficiency and margins, making them more receptive to automation initiatives. Moreover, private-equity sponsors can standardise technology adoption across multiple portfolio companies, allowing AI providers to scale rapidly through a single relationship.The broader trend reflects a shift in how AI is commercialised. Rather than relying solely on software subscriptions, firms like Anthropic are increasingly bundling tools with advisory and implementation services to drive deeper integration and stickier revenue streams.Anthropic has already taken steps in this direction, including a separate $100 million programme to support consulting firms deploying its technology. The company generates most of its revenue from enterprise use of its chatbot and coding tools and is reportedly exploring a future IPO.Taken together, the planned venture underscores a key evolution in the AI cycle, from hype and experimentation toward industrial-scale deployment—with private equity emerging as a critical distribution channel for enterprise adoption.A lot of people are anti AI. Any sign of intelligence would be welcome right about now though. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Fire broke out in La Boca near the Bridge of the Americas and fuel-linked facilities Bridge traffic was suspended while authorities assessed structural safety One person was reported missing and two firefighters were injured Preliminary reports indicate the blaze began in a fuel tanker and spread Incident occurred beside the Pacific entrance area of the Panama Canal Canal matters more right now because Iran tensions have already been reshaping shipping flows No official confirmation yet of canal damage or transit suspension from this fire No verified evidence so far linking the incident to Iran or sabotageAn explosion and fire at fuel-related facilities near the Bridge of the Americas in Panama has drawn market attention because of its location at the Pacific entrance to the Panama Canal, even though there is, for now, no official confirmation that canal transit operations themselves were damaged or suspended by the incident. Local reporting said the blaze broke out in La Boca, near installations linked to fuel treatment and storage, and forced the temporary closure of the bridge while authorities assessed safety risks. Officials said the crossing would remain shut until technical inspections confirmed it was safe to reopen. According to preliminary information cited by La Prensa, one person was reported missing and two firefighters suffered second-degree burns. The report also said fuel tanker trucks were affected during the emergency, with one account from fire officials indicating the blaze began in a tanker and spread rapidly to another while a third truck was being loaded with fuel. More than 50 firefighters were involved in containing the fire. The immediate significance for markets is the location. The Bridge of the Americas sits beside one of the world’s most strategically important shipping chokepoints, and the Panama Canal has taken on added relevance in recent weeks as the Iran conflict has started to reshape global energy and tanker routes. Reuters reported in March that some U.S. crude cargoes were being redirected to Asia via the Panama Canal as Hormuz-related tensions altered trade flows, while the canal authority also reported stronger tanker transits earlier this year. That does not mean the fire was connected to Iran, sabotage, or a broader geopolitical operation. At this stage, the verified reporting points to an industrial fire involving fuel tankers and nearby fuel installations rather than a confirmed attack. Just as importantly, I am not seeing an official Panama Canal Authority traffic advisory specifically tying this incident to canal transit disruption on its current shipping-advisory page. Still, because the incident occurred next to canal-linked infrastructure and amid a period of elevated sensitivity around global shipping routes, the story matters beyond local traffic disruption. If follow-up reporting were to show damage extending into canal operations, fuel handling, or vessel movements near the Pacific entrance, markets would likely treat it as more than a localised accident. For now, though, the evidence supports a fuel-terminal fire near a critical logistics corridor, not a confirmed hit on the canal itself. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson said on Monday that the US stock market correction is largely done, with rates, not war, the final hurdle before equities resume higher.Summary:Wilson sees current weakness as a late-stage correction within an ongoing bull market S&P 500 forward P/E down ~18%, a rare reset outside recession/tightening cycles Earnings growth accelerating, not deteriorating, which is a key divergence vs past oil shocks Breadth damage severe, with >50% of stocks down 20%+, suggesting late-cycle correction Support at 6300–6500 held; downside risk seen as limited absent rate shock Prefers barbell: cyclicals (financials, industrials, discretionary) + hyperscaler growth Main risk is rates and policy, with 4.5% US 10Y a key valuation threshold Tighter conditions could trigger eventual dovish central bank pivotMorgan Stanley CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that the recent equity drawdown should be viewed as a late-stage correction within an ongoing bull market, rather than the start of a broader downturn.Wilson maintains that the current bull cycle began in April last year, following what he describes as a “rolling recession” spanning 2022 to 2025. Despite multiple headwinds, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, persistent conflict in Ukraine, concerns around private credit, and disruption from artificial intelligence, the broader recovery trend in equities remains intact.He highlights that markets have already undergone a meaningful reset. The S&P 500 Index forward price-to-earnings multiple has declined by around 18%, a magnitude typically associated with recessions or aggressive central bank tightening cycles. Wilson notes that neither condition appears likely at present. At the same time, earnings growth is not deteriorating, in fact, it is accelerating to multi-year highs, marking a key divergence from prior oil-shock episodes that tipped economies into recession.Beneath the index level, the correction has been more severe. Over half of stocks have fallen at least 20% from their peaks, with many down 30–40%. Such broad-based drawdowns are historically more consistent with late-cycle corrections than early-stage declines, suggesting the market may be approaching a bottoming phase.Technically, Wilson points to the S&P 500 finding support in the 6300–6500 range, a zone that held during last week’s rebound. While a retest remains possible, particularly if bond yields rise further or geopolitical risks intensify, he does not expect a sustained breakdown. Instead, he sees scope for additional “clearing” in crowded areas of the market, particularly semiconductors and memory stocks, where positioning remains elevated. A further unwind in these trades could help solidify a durable low.From a positioning standpoint, Wilson advocates a barbell strategy. On one side, he favours cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary, where earnings momentum remains robust and valuations have compressed. Recent labour market strength, highlighted by a sizeable gain in private payrolls, reinforces the view that the economic recovery remains intact.On the other side, he sees opportunity in large-cap growth, particularly hyperscale technology companies. These firms are now trading at valuation multiples comparable to defensive sectors like consumer staples, despite delivering significantly stronger earnings growth. Sentiment and positioning in these names have deteriorated to levels last seen during the 2022 bear market, creating what he views as an attractive risk-reward setup.Looking ahead, Wilson identifies interest rates and central bank policy, not geopolitics, as the primary risk to equities. He notes that markets have shifted back into a regime where stocks and bond yields are negatively correlated, meaning higher yields weigh on valuations. A 4.5% level on the U.S. 10-year Treasury is flagged as a key threshold beyond which equity valuations could face renewed pressure.However, tighter financial conditions, driven by rising yields and elevated bond volatility, may ultimately prompt a more dovish response from central banks. Wilson argues that policymakers retain flexibility and have demonstrated a willingness to ease conditions if tightening becomes excessive.In his view, markets have already priced in a wide range of risks, including geopolitical escalation, private credit concerns, and potential downsides from AI adoption. The remaining hurdle lies in navigating interest rate levels, policy expectations, and volatility. Once these factors stabilise, he expects a clearer path forward for equities. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The major U.S. indices are closing higher, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of a resolution to the Iran conflict. The tone was supported by cautious optimism, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated.President Trump set a hard deadline, warning that the U.S. could target bridges and energy infrastructure starting at 8 PM ET tomorrow if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened and/ or broader agreements are not reached. That backdrop is keeping volatility in play, even as equities push higher.A snapshot of the closing levels shows:Dow Jones Industrial Average: +165.21 points (+0.36%) to 46,669.88S&P 500: +29.14 points (+0.44%) to 6,611.83NASDAQ: +117.16 points (+0.54%) to 21,996.34Below is a look at some of the top gainers and losers on the day.Here's the full sector summary with the complete picture:Storage & Semiconductors — The most consistent winning sector today. SanDisk (+3.28%), Micron (+3.15%), and Western Digital (+3.11%) all moved in lockstep, strongly suggesting a sector-wide catalyst — possibly positive supply chain news or easing of trade concerns around memory chips. Nebius NV (+3.42%), an AI infrastructure play, added further weight to the hardware theme.Crypto & Crypto-adjacent — A strong day across the board. Bitcoin Futures hit $69,977 (+3.32%), Grayscale Bitcoin (GBTC) gained 4.08%, and Strategy (MSTR) — which holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet — jumped 6.56%. Clearly crypto sentiment was elevated.AdTech / AI — Applovin (APP) was the single biggest mover of the day at +6.81%, continuing its remarkable run. This appears to be stock-specific momentum rather than a broad sector move.Consumer & Food — A split picture. Booking Holdings (+5.02%) and Shake Shack (+3.41%) both had strong sessions, while Celsius (+6.04%) rebounded sharply. On the losing side, GameStop (-1.20%) and Roblox (-4.83%) dragged consumer/entertainment names lower.Biotech & Pharma — Clearly under pressure. Biogen (-2.82%) and Pfizer (-1.69%) both declined with no names from the sector appearing on the gainers list, pointing to broad sector rotation out of healthcare.Cloud & Enterprise Software — Weak. Snowflake (-1.66%) and Intuit (-1.22%) both slid, while Ciena Corp (-3.03%) — networking hardware for data centers — saw significant selling, potentially on margin or demand concerns.EV & Auto — Tesla (-2.15%) continued to face headwinds, likely tied to ongoing demand and brand perception concerns that have weighed on the stock in recent months.Airlines & Commodities — Mild but notable losses. United Airlines (-1.36%) and Barrick Mining (-1.34%) both pulled back modestly, hinting at some risk-off rotation in macro-sensitive names. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A low-key sort of session ahead for incoming data. None of this is likely to move markets too much upon release. Asia will be holding its breath ahead of the latest Trump war deadline:Trump extends Iran deadline to Tuesday, aggressively threatens power grid destructionTrump: Tuesday Iran deadline is 'final deadline' This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD is trading higher on the day, but upside momentum has stalled against a key technical barrier. The high price tested the falling 200-hour moving average (near 1.3262), briefly poking above it before rotating lower—a sign that sellers are still defending that level.The subsequent move down pushed the pair below the 100-hour moving average (1.3239), but downside momentum faded near a swing support area between 1.3217 and 1.3229 in confined trading today. That floor held, and the pair has since bounced modestly, now trading back near the 100-hour MA—keeping the short-term bias more neutral and range-bound.As we head into the close and the new trading day, the roadmap is clear: For buyers to take control, the price needs to get and stay above both the 100- and 200-hour MAs A break above the 200-hour MA (1.3262) would open the door toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.3281 and the 50% midpoint at 1.3319 of the move down from the March 23 high On the downside: A break below 1.3217 would shift the bias back to sellers That would target the next support zone at 1.3171–1.3181, followed by last week’s low at 1.3159 A move below that low would take the pair to its weakest level since November 2025, with the next major target near 1.3000Bottom line: The pair is stuck between key moving averages, with sellers still leaning near the 200-hour MA. Buyers need a clean break higher to regain control, while a move below support would reignite the broader downtrend. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD moved higher during the Asian and early European sessions, breaking above both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages—a shift that tilted the short-term bias more bullish. The pair extended to a high near 1.15549, pushing above a key swing area before encountering sellers.Since that high, the corrective move lower has been orderly, with price holding support near the 200-hour moving average (currently ~1.1533). The 100-hour MA (1.1549) is also in play, creating a tight technical cluster that now acts as a near-term battleground heading into the close and the next trading session.From here, the levels are well defined: A break below the 200-hour MA (1.1533) would shift the short-term bias back to the sellers A move back above the swing high near 1.1555, and then today’s peak around 1.1571, would give buyers momentum for another upside push On the downside, further support comes in at the swing area between 1.1484 and 1.1491. A break below that zone would target a rising trendline near 1.1459 (and moving higher).On the topside, if buyers can extend above 1.1571, the next key target is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.1606—a level that would signal a more meaningful shift in control.Bottom line: The pair is at a technical inflection point, with price wedged between key moving averages and recent highs. Let the break dictate the bias—a move below 1.1533 favors sellers, while a break above **1.1555–1.1571 opens the door for further upside toward 1.1606. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

As the Pres. starts the press conference:2 year yield 3.852%10 year yield 4.332%S&P up 14.25 points or 0.21%Nasdaq up 47 points or 0.23%Dow +61 pointsCrude oil $112.76Gold $4658Silver $72.55Bitcoin $69,647EURUSD 1.1538USDJPY 159.76GBPUSD 1.3222Headlines from the Press conference:The entire country can be taken out in one night and the one night may be tomorrow nightWe leave no American behind. We don't do it.Trump is recounting the rescue operation of the downed soldier in Iran (and repeating himself) Oil is up to $113.77 on the comment about Iran being taken out in one night. Stocks are modestly lower.. The CIA director commended the Pres. for the rescue and the courage to leave no man behind.Hegseth says:Today will be largest volume of strikes since Day 1 of Iran operation. Tomorrow will be even moreMeanwhile, Reuters is reporting two Qatar LNG tankers headed toward the Strait of Hormuz on Monday morning were among those Iran allowed to transit under Iran – US agreement reached last week.IRGC stopped Qatar tankers before transit and ordered them to hold position without explanationIN a separate report:Iran Foreign Minister, in call with Qatari counterpart, says Iran is interested in developing ties; says that the current situation is strictly due to US-Israel aggressionAfter the recount and the platitudes for Trump, it is assumed that Trump will take questions from the press.Comments from Q&A:Iranians should rise up against regime.But the consequences are greatIranians to protest will be immediately shot and killedWe have regime change.Not everyone was onboard for the military operation.Going through hundreds of thousands of soldiersHundreds of people could have killed.Thinks talks are going well with Iran.I hope I do not have to do it when asked about bombing power plants and bridgesWe think Iran is negotiating in good faith.Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a big priority.The biggest problem is Iran has no means of communicatingVery disappointed in NATO.We have a concept where we will charge tolls We have to have a deal that is acceptable to me, and part is free traffic in the Strait of HormuzEvery bridge and powerplant wil lbe decimated over a 4-hour period tomorrow.He does not want to destroy their infrastructure. It would take 100 year to rebuild their infrastructure.NATO is a paper-TigerAt the end of the speech:2 year yield 3.841%10 year yield 4.322%S&P up 23.02 points or 0.35%Nasdaq up 101.3 points or 0.46%Dow 128 pointsCrude oil $112.17Gold $4660Silver $73.03Bitcoin $69,844EURUSD 1.1546USDJPY 159.65GBPUSD 132.35 Overall, the threat remains. The "out" where a deal can be made that avoids the bombing. Oil moved higher to $114.29, but rotated back to the downside. Yields were little changed with a tilt to the downside by about 1 basis point. Stocks moved higher. The US dollar moved mostly lower by the 10-15 pips versus the EUR, JPY and GBP This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Axios reporter Barak Ravid said Trump on and Netanyahu held a call on Sunday night:Israeli prime minister Netanyahu urged Trump in a call on Sunday not to go for a ceasefire at the moment and expressed concern about the riskes of such a move, an Israeli official saidTrump reportedly circled the importance of nuclear, something he said today was the goal of the war:Trump told Netanyahu that if Iran agrees to the U.S. demands a ceasefire could happen, but stressed he won't give up on his demand that Iran hand over all of its enriched Uranium and agree not to resume enrichment, according to the Israeli officialSeparately, Amichai Stein from the Jerusalem Post writes:Two Israeli officials, as well as diplomats familiar with the details of the talks, tell me: there is a very low chance of an agreement between Iran and the United States.Trump is beginning his press conference now so expect more headlines over the next hour. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.