The US stock market is higher today but there's one major exception: Tesla shares are down 2.6% in the second day of selling.Shares sank 5% on Thursday after the company reported Q1 deliveries of 358K compared to 372K expected. There was a moderate rebound at the open today but that reversed despite a positive tape elsewhere.Shares of the company remain extremely expensive by any traditional metric. They're trading at a 325x trailing multiple after earning $1.08 per share last year. On a forward consensus basis, they're trading at 170x, though the estimates might nudge down after Thursday's numbers.The market cap of the company is $1.32 trillion on revenue of $94.8 billion so that's a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 13.9x and it's unlikely to improve meaningfully this year.Essentially, the cult-like shareholders of Tesla are betting on Elon Musk to make a breakthrough in one or all of:Self-driving taxisRobots via OptimusRevolutionizing truckingA resurgence in demand for electric vehiclesIt's a huge valuation for technologies that are unproven or a long ways away but the market believes (for now) that if anyone can do it, Musk can.A looming problem for TSLA shareholders is the IPO of SpaceX. Musk's other company is the flavor of the moment and that's where his bets on space, artificial intelligence and social media are located. The company is reportedly targeting a valuation of $1.75-$2 trillion.That's an incredible number of a money-losing company and with Starlink only posting about $10 billion in revenue last year.For Tesla, the problem is that the retail cult of Musk could sell some TSLA shares in order to buy into shares of SpaceX. Essentially, the buying public could be divided and that could weigh directly on Tesla. Notably, Musk himself will have a controlling stake in SpaceX but doesn't in Tesla. That dynamic could lead him to focus more on his newer company.In terms of technicals, shares of TSLA have erased the September rally now and are back to late-2021 levels. There is also a big potential double top on the chart. Given the lack of support from valuation, I don't see a floor anywhere close to here.Meanwhile, JPMorgan out with a fresh note trimming their estimates after Q1 deliveries came in light. They note that it wasn't just the auto side as energy storage, which has been one of the bull case pillars, dropped 15% year-over-year at 8.8 GWh. JPMorgan is keeping their Underweight with a $145 target, which implies roughly 60% downside to where we're trading now. Their core argument hasn't changed: the stock is pricing in earnings power that's years away and far from guaranteed. We'll see if dip buyers step in, but JPMorgan is basically saying: don't be that person. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD often move together, but technically they are telling different stories right now.For the AUDUSD, the pair moved lower at the end of March and approached its rising 100-day moving average (0.6833), but held above that level and rebounded. Last week, price action was choppy, trading above and below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, before ultimately closing below both. In today’s session, the pair has pushed back above those short-term MAs, tilting the bias more bullish in the near term.However, the rally stalled ahead of key resistance, including a swing area between 0.6938 and 0.6962, and the 38.2% retracement at 0.6968. Sellers leaned against the lower end of that zone, pushing the price back down toward the 100-hour MA (0.6906) and 200-hour MA (0.6900 area). A break below 0.6900 with momentum would open the door for further downside. Until then, buyers remain in play—but they need to break through those resistance targets to take back more control.In contrast, the NZDUSD remains more bearish technically. The pair broke below its 100-day moving average on March 25 and extended lower, reaching its weakest levels since late March before bouncing modestly. Today’s rebound saw the price test the 100-hour MA (0.5723), but momentum faded against a downward-sloping trendline and ahead of the 200-hour MA (0.5740).To shift the bias, buyers need to get above and stay above both the trendline and 200-hour MA. Without that, sellers remain firmly in control—both from a longer-term perspective (below the 100- and 200-day MAs) and in the short term (below the 100- and 200-hour MAs).Bottom line: The AUDUSD is showing early signs of stabilization with buyers trying to regain control, while the NZDUSD remains technically weaker, with rallies still being sold. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump has extended the deadline to strike Iran's infrastructure three times and now he says the Tuesday at 8 pm ET deadline is the final one. I'm not sure that statement carries much credibility in markets but time will tell.Trump also said that the war could end 'very quickly' if if Iran "does the things it needs to do". He also said the people negotiating are reasonable and not as radicalized.In terms of goals, he seems to be shifting on those once again and saying that the war is about one-thing: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.That does seem to be an area where Iran is willing to give ground so we will see how this goes. Trump also said that "if I had my choice, I would take the oil" but that American people want to see us come home. He added that he'd like to see "us win and come home."Trump also said that the latest Iran proposal was a big step but not good enough.The headline here isn't great for risk but all the context is positive as it continues to sound like he wants to make a deal.In terms of the report about Trump arming insurgents, he said that the guns were supposed to go to protesters but a certain group of people just kept them. He said he's upset about that and there will be a big price for that.It's speculated these were either Kurds or some ISIS fighters that were removed from Syria.As Trump continued he said the US could leave 'right now' but that he wants to 'finish it up' and that 'hopefully it will be over quickly'.Update: Trump is again doing the rounds so it's hard to imagine in the 1 pm speech there will be anything new:Trump says that striking Iran's infrastructure wouldn't be a war crime "because they are animals"I've given them chances and they haven't taken themIran would like to have a ceasefire because they're getting obliteratedIt's 'highly unlikely' he will extend deadlineWe got regime change, they are more moderateMeanwhile, CNN reports that roughly half of Iran's missile launchers are still intact and thousands of one-way attack drones remain in Iran's arsenal despite US and Israeli strikes against military targets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

IRNA reports that Iran has relayed its rejection of a ceasefire plan.The message from Tehran has been consistent, they want a permanent end to the war with security guarantees and compensation, not a temporary ceasefire. They say they've been attacked during negotiations before and want everything settled before unblocking Hormuz."That's not surprising," said former US national security advisor Mark Esper. "I don't see a ceasefire coming, the sides are too far apart."Of course, there are 'demands' in the media and then real negotiations. Many wars have ended surprisingly and suddenly due to negotiations that weren't done in public.Axios now reports that Iran sent a 10-point response to the proposal to end the war but it was also described as 'maximalist' and makes it unclear if it will allow for a diplomatic solution.WTI crude oil is down 31-cents to $111.18. The S&P 500 is up 13 points, or 0.2%, to 6593.The main event today is Trump's 1 pm speech. In general, he's usually less hawkish live than via social media and it will certainly be tough to sound as unhinged as his Easter post yesterday. That said, the market was betting he would tone down the rhetoric in last week's live speech and that wasn't the case, leaving to a big jump in oil prices and a fall in stock markets.So it's fair to say that the market prices in something less hawkish live and we will have to see where it lands. With Iran rejecting the ultimatum, he's backed himself into a bit of a corner on attacking infrastructure and my guess is that he continues to escalate. At that point, we will see if Iran is capable of retaliating and if we get to a point where Iran and gulf oil infrastructure is badly damaged, then oil prices have nowhere to go but up. Even if it's just Iran's oil industry that's broken, that would leave a notable gap in global supply capable of sustaining +$150 oil this year and perhaps beyond. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe US stock market saw a vibrant momentum today, largely driven by robust performances in the technology and financial sectors. The technology sector showed remarkable resilience with notable gains from giants like Apple (AAPL), which soared by an impressive 2.41%. Supported by consistent demand for hardware innovations, Apple demonstrated its market dominance and renewed investor confidence.Meanwhile, the financial sector remained steady with a positive outlook. Leading the charge were major banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) up by 0.71% and Bank of America (BAC) with a climb of 1.36%. Financials continue to benefit from stable interest rate expectations and overall economic recovery.Market Mood and TrendsToday’s market sentiment was largely positive with investors expressing optimism in select sectors. The upward momentum in tech stocks, alongside a stable financial landscape, indicates a balanced market approach. Semiconductor stocks like Micron Technology (MU) up by 3.46% were exceptional performers, reflecting revitalized interest in this high-demand area.However, the consumer cyclicals sector displayed mixed performances. While Amazon (AMZN) gained 1.35%, supported by strong retail activity, Tesla (TSLA) experienced a minor dip of 0.39%, potentially impacted by volatility in the auto industry.Strategic RecommendationsFor investors seeking to capitalize on today’s trends, maintaining a portfolio with exposure to thriving tech stocks appears advantageous, especially those within hardware and semiconductor arenas. Apple’s growing momentum and Micron’s significant gains suggest promising opportunities within these sub-sectors.Similarly, steady investments in the financial sector could serve as a safeguard against future market uncertainties, with stable growth prospects in banking and credit services. Additionally, closely monitoring indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq for upcoming corporate earnings could provide strategic entry points for well-timed investments.Stay informed and continue following InvestingLive.com for real-time updates and strategic insights to maximize opportunities in today’s dynamic market landscape. ?? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are trading higher to start the new week, with the S&P up 0.36% and the NASDAQ up 0.50%. The early gains are helping both indices move back above their 100-hour moving averages, which were broken late Thursday ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Those levels—6563.31 for the S&P and 21804.13 for the NASDAQ—now serve as key short-term support. Holding above them keeps buyers in control near-term and gives the rally a stronger footing.That said, while the bounce is constructive, buyers still have work to do to shift the broader bias. The sellers continue to hold the upper hand unless the market can reclaim more meaningful resistance levels.For the S&P, the next major target is the 200-day moving average at 6647.67, a level the index has remained below since March 18. A move back above that level—especially on a closing basis—would be an important technical win for buyers and could open the door toward the 200-hour moving average near 6686.06 (and falling).For the NASDAQ, the immediate upside target is the 200-hour moving average at 22221.47, which has capped rallies since early February. A break above that level would shift momentum more firmly in favor of buyers and bring the 50% retracement of the move down from the January 28 high at 22339.26 into focus. Just above that sits the 200-day moving average at 22351.80, another key level the index has traded below since March 18.Bottom line: The move higher is encouraging, but holding above the 100-hour MAs is just step one. Buyers need to reclaim the 200-day and 200-hour levels to take back control, while failure to do so keeps the broader bias tilted in favor of sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Business activity index 53.9 vs 59.9 prior Employment 45.2 vs 51.8 prior New orders 60.6 vs 58.6 prior-- two year highPrices paid 70.7 vs 63.0 prior -- highest in three-and-a-half yearsSupplier deliveries 56.2 vs 53.9 prior Inventories 54.8 vs 56.4 prior Backlog of orders 53.6 vs 55.9 prior New export orders 50.7 vs 57.2 prior Imports 55.2 vs 51.8 prior Inventory sentiment 54.3 vs 55.3 priorFrom the chart, you can see the trajectory of this survey before the start of the war.This index has been above 50 for 20 consecutive months and is one of the better-looking economic indicators in the US. Lately, it's creeped back into the pre-covid range of 55-60 as companies benefit from tax breaks, rate cuts and deregulation. The removal of tariffs could also have helped boost sentiment but those mostly applied to goods. It's not yet clear how the reversal of energy prices higher is going to impact business sentiment but this isn't a good sign.Comments in the report:“Tariff rollbacks are resulting in favorable price adjustments, but the news of new implementation is driving continued uncertainty. Snowstorms last month disrupted demand and supplier operations, mostly around the availability of labor. Forecasted seasonal growth is starting to materialize due to daylight savings time and higher temperatures.” [Accommodation & Food Services]“Transportation disruptions in the Middle East are inhibiting both incoming and outgoing cargoes from the region. While force majeure has been received from several Middle Eastern suppliers, business operations are generally at normal levels and no interruptions, except shipping.” [Construction]“We are still in cost cutting and operational streamlining mode as technology continues to advance. We have seen more concessions regarding passing through tariff surcharges. We continue to closely monitor the political situation in the Middle East and how ramifications could impact our supply chain and overall costs.” [Finance & Insurance]“As we close out the first quarter, demand for AI computer infrastructure remains incredibly resilient. Customers have opened their 2026 capital budgets, leading to a strong refresh in new order intake. Operationally, our focus has shifted toward efficiency and margin protection.” [Information]“Political uncertainty with Iran conflict has resulted in less international business. Domestic business remains consistent with January and February levels.” [Mining]“We’re seeing some expansion across the services economy with stronger business activity and new orders. Clients remain active on regulatory, tax planning, and risk management initiatives, though persistent pricing pressures and evolving economic conditions continue to shape project prioritization and budgeting.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]“The war in Iran has added an additional layer of uncertainty on top of an already shaky macroeconomic climate. A spike in inflation due to higher oil prices will reduce purchasing power, affecting every industry.” [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]“Recent increases in fuel prices are having a substantial impact on the airline industry, resulting in significantly higher operational costs compared to pricing from just one month ago.” [Transportation & Warehousing]“Continued volatility in copper, aluminum and steel markets — driven by supply chain constraints and strong infrastructure demand — has increased costs and lead times for electric utility projects. These conditions are influencing purchasing strategies and capital planning across the industry.” [Utilities]“The U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran have created significant uncertainty for our Omani frankincense imports. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and rising war-risk surcharges are pressuring regional logistics costs, even for air freight. Combined with the Supreme Court’s emergency tariffs ruling — which replaced our 10-percent tariff with a 15-percent Section 122 tariff — landed costs have increased materially. We are monitoring regional stability closely and maintaining communication with Omani suppliers.” [Wholesale Trade]For background, the ISM Services PMI (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business) is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, based on surveys of purchasing and supply executives across the U.S. services sector. The panel is weighted by each industry's contribution to GDP. The headline composite is built from four equally weighted subindices—business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries—with readings above 50 indicating expansion. Given that services account for roughly three-quarters of U.S. economic output, the report is closely watched as a barometer of overall growth momentum.The services sector ended 2025 on an accelerating note. The PMI rose for a third straight month in December to 54.4, the strongest since October 2024, with all subindices in expansion for the first time since February of that year. January 2026 held steady at 53.8, with business activity and supplier deliveries posting their highest readings since October 2024. Respondent commentary increasingly flagged tariff uncertainty and annual contract renewals as sources of concern, while price pressures edged higher with the prices paid index at 66.6.February marked a significant acceleration. The headline PMI surged 2.3 points to 56.1, the highest since July 2022 and well above the 53.5 consensus. It was the 20th consecutive month of expansion and the 69th straight month of overall economic growth as measured by the index. Business activity jumped to 59.9, its second-highest reading since November 2022. New orders surged 5.5 points to 58.6, the sharpest pace in 17 months, while employment growth firmed to 51.8. Notably, all ten reported subindices were in expansion territory for the first time since March 2021. Backlogs of orders swung into expansion for the first time in a year. On the price side, the prices paid index actually eased 3.6 points to 63.0, though it remained above 60 for a fifteenth consecutive month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Services activity declined, with the PMI at 47.2 (below 50 = contraction), though slightly improved from February at 46.5New business fell again, but the pace of decline eased to a 5-month lowGeopolitical uncertainty (Middle East war) weighed heavily on demand, with clients delaying or pausing projectsInput costs surged to a 9-month high, driven by fuel, transport, and labor costs Firms raised prices, but pricing power was limited due to weak demand and competition Employment declined for a 7th straight month, as firms cut staff or didn’t replace workers Business Services and Transport sectors saw the sharpest drops in activity Despite current weakness, confidence improved to a 6-month high, with hopes for geopolitical resolution and stronger demand aheadBottom line: The sector remains in contraction, pressured by war-driven uncertainty and rising costs, but there are early signs of stabilization and improved sentiment.Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Another challenging month for Canada’s service sector was signalled during March, with activity and new business again falling, albeit at slower rates compared to recent months. The impact of the war in the Middle East has led to heightened uncertainty and delayed decision making amongst clients, although firms are confident that a swift resolution would lead to an uplift in activity. “Nonetheless, the present business environment is clearly challenging, with firms reporting a steep increase in their operating expenses over the month, driven mainly by increased fuel and transportation costs. However, given subdued market demand, firms’ own pricing power remains restricted leading to only partial pass through of higher costs to clients and therefore a squeeze in margins. Understandably therefore service providers took the option to save on expenses wherever possible, with any leavers generally not replaced leading to another net fall in employment over the month."The S&P Global Canada Services PMI is based on responses from roughly 400 service-sector companies across a range of industries and is designed to track month-to-month changes in business activity. It uses a diffusion index on a 0–100 scale, where readings above 50 indicate expansion and below 50 signal contraction. The primary measure is the Services Business Activity Index, which reflects changes in output, while the Composite PMI combines both services and manufacturing using GDP-based weights. The data is seasonally adjusted and provides a timely snapshot of economic momentum, with the 50 level serving as the key dividing line between growth and contraction. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A proposed 45-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is currently being discussed but remains one of several options under consideration, with no formal approval from President Trump. A White House official emphasized that the President has not signed off on the plan, and that military operations (“Operation Epic Fury”) are ongoing. Attention now turns to Trump’s scheduled remarks at 1 PM EDT, where markets will be looking for clearer direction on policy and any potential shift toward de-escalation.45-day ceasefire proposal is not approved and remains one of many ideasTrump has not signed off, and military operations continueTrump scheduled to speak at 1 PM EDT, a potential catalyst for clarity Uncertainty remains on whether Iran will be addressed directly beforehand Formal press conference at 1 PM EDT could provide more definitive guidance Bottom line: The situation remains fluid and headline-driven, with no confirmed ceasefire and markets awaiting Trump’s comments for direction.Iran has rejected ideas of a 45 day ceasefire idea. Israel is also a wildcard. Netanyahu has his own regional objective and judging from his actions vs Hamas, there may be announced ceasefires, but the war goes on. Trump was all in at the start of the war, but has tried to distance himself more from Netanyahu as the 4 weeks proposed end to the war, has passed. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Canada is closed today for the Easter Monday holiday, but U.S. markets remain open and active. Equity futures are pointing to a mixed start, with the Dow modestly lower, the S&P 500 slightly higher, and the NASDAQ leading the way with gains of around 100 points. Meanwhile, U.S. yields have rotated lower after an early uptick, with the 10-year now down roughly 1.5 basis points after being higher by a similar amount at the start of the North American session. That shift in yields is helping to shape the tone across FX markets.In the USDCAD, the price is trading at new session lows after failing to build on last week’s highs during the Asian-Pacific session. That failure to extend higher opened the door for sellers, and the momentum has since tilted more decisively to the downside. In the early European session, the pair broke below a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937—a level that had acted as a floor going back to September 2025 on the 4-hour chart. The inability to hold above that zone has shifted the short-term bias more firmly in favor of sellers.The downside momentum has continued with a break below the 100-hour moving average (near 1.3917). This level held as support late last week after the pair briefly dipped below it on Wednesday before rebounding into Thursday and Friday. Moving back below it today is a negative technical development and signals that sellers are regaining control—at least in the near term.However, there is still work to do for sellers if they want to extend the move. The next key target comes in at the 200-hour moving average near 1.3891. This level has proven to be a key barometer in recent weeks. Back on March 23, the price briefly moved below it but failed to generate follow-through, quickly snapping back higher. Earlier in March, the pair used that same moving average as a base before launching its broader upside trend. As a result, a clean break and sustained move below the 200-hour MA would be needed to give sellers greater confidence and signal a more meaningful shift in control.If that level gives way, attention turns to the next downside targets, including last week’s low near 1.3868 and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 23 low at 1.3516. These represent key downside checkpoints that would need to be broken to reinforce a more bearish bias.For now, the bias has tilted modestly to the downside, but the roadmap remains clear: sellers are gaining traction, yet they still need to break and stay below key support levels to fully take control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The world is dangerously close to a massive escalation in the Iran war, as Trump has threatened to strike Iran's infrastructure, including energy, power and bridges.Iran has pledged to attack the energy infrastructure and possibly desalization infrastructure of gulf neighbors in response. Trump set a deadline for 8 pm ET on Tuesday to open Hormuz or face the destruction but Israel has already moved to strike at Iran's energy.Defence minister Israel Katz today said his military struck Iran's largest ​petrochemical complex at Asaluyeh. Fars news agency reported that 'several' sites had been struck.Tansim reported that companies that provide electricity, water and oxygen ​to Asaluyeh were attacked, but the facility itself was not damaged. That may be an aim to carefully tread the fine line towards an escalation that's in almost no one's interest (except Russia).Last month, Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field and Iran responded by attacks on gulf energy, including a crippingly strike on part of Qatar's LNG operation. That could take five years to repair, according to Qatar's national energy company and lead to a 17% drop in production.Just now, there are reports of large explosions in Kuwait, which has been particularly hard hit by Iran in this war.So far, the market isn't panicking on this attack because there are some hopes for a ceasefire or peace deal in light of Trump extending his deadline for a third time. WTI crude is down 90-cents to $110.86 after a big jump on Thursday.The market is undoubtedly on edge about war developments and this week feels like a critical moment because if Iran's power grid is attacked, it's hard to imagine them willingly opening the Strait of Hormuz any time soon.S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% and European markets are mostly closed for Easter Monday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is trading lower to kickstart the new trading week on this Easter Monday, although liquidity is thinner with the UK and much of Europe out for the holiday. Even with lighter participation, the market is being driven by weekend headlines, keeping traders cautious and reactive to geopolitical developments.Over the weekend, President Trump issued a renewed warning (I will keep the tone muted from the reality of his comments), giving what was described as a 48-hour window before potential strikes on key infrastructure such as bridges and power facilities. At the same time, an Axios report suggested that negotiations are ongoing, with efforts focused on a ceasefire that would help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has pushed back, stating that no meaningful negotiations are taking place. That contrast in messaging is keeping uncertainty elevated and limiting conviction across markets.Oil prices reflect that tension but also hint at expectations for eventual de-escalation. The front-month contract remains elevated near $110, underscoring the current risk premium tied to supply disruption fears. However, the June contract trading closer to $97 suggests the market is pricing in some form of resolution that could bring prices back below the $100 level—a level that had previously acted as a ceiling and now serves as a key barometer going forward.In equities, the tone is mixed. The Nasdaq is modestly higher, up around 90–100 points, while the S&P 500 is also slightly positive. In contrast, the Dow is lagging and trading lower. The divergence reflects a market that is not fully embracing risk-on or risk-off, but instead remains in a wait-and-see mode as traders weigh geopolitical risks against broader macro conditions.In the forex market, the major currency pairs are showing that same indecision. The EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD are all trading in and around their 100- and 200-hour moving averages. Those moving averages are clustered tightly together, which is often a signal of consolidation and uncertainty. From a technical perspective, that cluster becomes the near-term barometer. A sustained move above would tilt the bias more favorably toward buyers, while staying below keeps sellers in control.For now, the market is in a tug-of-war. The levels are well-defined, the risks are known, and traders are once again faced with a familiar equation: define risk, stay disciplined, and let the market show its hand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The headline comes from Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson in saying that Tehran has formulated its diplomatic response to the US but will only announce it in due time. We have to wait and see but there is a mixed reception towards all the headlines from the rumour mill in the past 24 hours.For now, markets are keeping a bit more optimistic. The dollar is down across the board in the absence of European traders while US futures are nudging higher on the day. EUR/USD is up 0.4% to 1.1555 while S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% on the day now. That as oil prices come off the boil with WTI crude dropping from a high of $114 in Asia to $109 levels now.Despite the financial market optimism though, betting markets are not convinced. The odds of a peace or meaningful ceasefire of sorts before the end of April are still less than 30% currently.That being said, the 29% figure is at least still higher than the 18% odds pinned at the weekend. So, make what you will of that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Tehran has received Pakistan's proposal, it is being reviewedWill not accept deadlines or pressure to make a decisionIran will not reopen Strait of Hormuz Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a 'temporary ceasefire'Believes that US lacks readiness for a permanent ceasefireIf there's any question that Iran might want to strike a deal before tomorrow, that thought is slowly dissipating as the hours continue to roll by. As a reminder, US president Trump delivered a warning to Tehran that tomorrow will be "power plant and bridge day" - alluding to massive strikes against Iran.The official above confirms that Iran has received Pakistan's peace proposal and are reviewing it. However, they aren't willing to go as far as to accept any 'temporary ceasefire'. And that means the Strait of Hormuz will stay in de facto closure, which will continue to infuriate Trump even further.For some context, Axios had earlier in the day report that "Iran mediators are looking to make a last-ditch push for a 45-day ceasefire". Reuters at the time said it could not verify the report. And now, we're getting this. So, that tells a lot about the current mood and how both sides are appearing to still be far from any peace agreement before tomorrow.There's still time for things to change but Iran doesn't seem interested. So, will the can be kicked down the road again tomorrow? We shall see. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

For some context, the report from Friday: US March non-farm payrolls +178K vs +60K expectedThe jobs data was much stronger than anticipated and certainly might have shut the door on talk of rate cuts, if not already because of the US-Iran conflict in the past month. CIBC weighs in by saying that:"Payroll employment rebounded more than expected in March and the unemployment rate edged down, something that will, temporarily at least, ease fears regarding a weakening labor market. The 178K gain in payrolls employment was well above the consensus forecast (+65K), and was offset only very slightly by cumulative downward revisions of 7K to prior months. Healthcare employment rebounded sharply following a strike-impacted February, while retail trade and transportation also saw gains following declines in the prior month.Despite strong employment growth, hourly earnings were weaker than expected at 0.2% m/m and 3.5% y/y. While that's not great for households, particularly given the pressures to disposable incomes from higher pump prices, it may ease concerns at the Fed regarding broader-based inflationary pressure."Overall, the report has something in it for everyone it would seem. In other words, the job numbers were strong enough to deter talk of a much steeper decline in labour market conditions. Meanwhile, wages were modest but not hot enough to suggest a broader pick up in inflation.As such, the only main question is the US-Iran conflict and the broader implications of that towards the economy.And for now, CIBC argues that it means the Fed can continue to stay on the sidelines in terms of policy setting."Overall though this was still clearly a better than expected report and one that justifies the current wait-and-see approach from the Fed, as it assesses how persistent the current oil price shock will be and how likely it is to spill over into other areas of inflation." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq Futures Hold Key Support - Can Bulls Maintain Control Above 23,100?Start with my Nasdaq tecnical analysis video from todayKey TakeawaysNasdaq futures remain resilient despite macro noise, holding above critical supportA double rejection at resistance earlier set the tone for the current structureThe 23,100-23,120 zone acts as the key “line in the sand”Bullish structure remains intact as long as higher lows continue to holdFailure to hold support could quickly unwind the recent +4.5% recoveryEven crypto is looking more bullish than bearish as Trump gives the Iranian regime another extensionNasdaq Futures Technical Analysis (1H Chart)In my latest review of Nasdaq futures on the 1-hour timeframe, I focused on a structure that has been developing since late March - one that combines volume profile, trendline interaction, and repeated rejection behavior.What stood out first was a clear resistance zone, defined by multiple touches. We saw three initial rejections followed by a clustered fourth test, and this is where things get interesting. In many cases, especially on timeframes like the 1-hour and above, the fourth interaction with a level often forces a decision point - either a breakout or a reversal.In this case, the outcome was clear:Buyers were absorbed, and price rejected lower.That rejection aligned with a broader structure, including a trendline that is now becoming highly relevant again as price rotates back toward it.The Bullish Case - Holding StructureDespite that earlier rejection, Nasdaq has shown impressive resilience.We recently saw:A support bounce at the trendlineA push back toward the April 1 highsContinued ability to hold above key structural zonesThis tells us something important:The market is absorbing negative news flow rather than reacting bearishly.From a structural standpoint, the bullish case remains valid as long as:Price holds above 23,680 (near-term support)More importantly, holds above 23,400And ultimately respects the broader 23,100-23,120 zoneThis lower zone is what I would define as the “area in the sand.”The Bearish Risk - What Would Break the SetupWhile the structure is currently constructive, it is not invulnerable.Nasdaq has already moved roughly +4.5%, and moves of that size can reverse quickly if support fails.Bearish scenario:If price breaks below 23,100-23,120, it signals a structural failureThat would likely trigger a deeper rotation lower, invalidating the bullish premiseA loss of 23,400 would already be an early warning signalThe Technical Scenario (Safe Framework)Setup: Nasdaq futures are holding a bullish structure supported by trendline support and higher lowsTrigger (Bullish): If price continues to hold above 23,400 and reclaims highs, it opens the path for continuationInvalidation: A sustained move below 23,100 would negate the bullish thesis and shift focus to downsideFinal Thoughts for Nasdaq TradersRight now, Nasdaq is in what I would call a “bullish but conditional” phase.The structure is holding. The market is showing strength. But it is doing so right above a critical support cluster.This is where discipline matters:Bulls need to see defense and continuationBears are waiting for a clean breakdown to take controlAs always, the key is not prediction - it is reaction to price at key levels.Stay focused, stay flexible, and let the market confirm the next move. Always do your own research and trade Nasdaq at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.With it being Easter Monday and all, expect it to be a quieter session in European morning trade today. With no major expiries in play, price action is likely to stay more muted amid a lack of key catalysts.The only highlight on the economic calendar is the US ISM services PMI report today. However, the main focus of markets will stay on Middle East developments. So, headline risk will remain the most important driver of trading sentiment as we get into the new week.That after US president Trump issued a fresh and stark threat against Iran that tomorrow will be "power plant and bridge day" unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. It is quite something to see a US president cursing on social media but we've come to accept that it is all part of Trump's eccentric nature.For now, Iran is maintaining that they are not going to give up their position. As such, oil prices are continuing to keep higher with the prospect of a prolonged conflict still on the cards. As Iran continues to keep a de facto closure on the strait, it just means that the status quo doesn't change for markets.In any case, the key deadline is now 7 April. And come tomorrow, that might all change again. The can continues to be kicked down the road. So, we'll see how things go in the next 24 hours or so from here.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin futures price prediction today: BTC reclaims post-roll value area, but bullish repair still needs acceptance above $69,320Prediction Score: +4.0 (The prediction score ranges from -10 (extreme bearish control) through 0 (neutral or indecisive conditions) to +10 (extreme bullish control), combining both direction and confidence into a single scale.Short-term bias: moderately bullishConfidence: mediumWhat may come next is $72,475 on bitcoin futures.First, some crypto backdrop... Geopolitical tensions reached a fever pitch as Trump extends the Iran deadline to Tuesday while aggressively threatening power grid destruction, a move that has sent ripples of uncertainty across global markets. This escalation comes at a volatile time for digital assets; although Ethereum showed a flashing early bullish signal as order flows pointed toward a strong weekly opening, that optimism has largely evaporated. At the end of the week, Ethereum was cooling off but since the crypto futures market opened approximately seven hours ago, the initial bullish momentum from late last week has turned, leaving traders to navigate a landscape shaped by both technical overhead and intensifying international conflict.Bitcoin futures have made a meaningful technical improvement. On the 4h chart, price has now pushed back above the value area anchored from the March 25, 2026 contract roll-over date, which is an important signal that the market is no longer trading as weakly as it was during the late-March damage phase. At the same time, the broader order-flow read still argues for some restraint. The latest rally has reopened fair value and reclaimed a key pivot, but it has not yet fully proven that Bitcoin can hold above that area and build sustained acceptance higher.That distinction matters. A market can stage a strong repair without yet entering full bullish control. Right now, Bitcoin futures look closer to that middle ground.Why this Bitcoin futures rebound mattersThe 4h structure has improved in a way that traders should respect. Price has climbed back above the earlier value-area ceiling from the anchored profile and also above the newer developing ceiling that had formed during the repair process. That tells us buyers are not just bouncing randomly from oversold conditions. They are pushing the market back into a higher-value zone.This is the first real state improvement in the chart since the late-March decline dragged price away from the upper part of the profile and forced value lower. In practical terms, the market is trying to move from a damaged structure back into a healthier auction.That is constructive.Why the stance is bullish, but not aggressively bullishThe more cautious read comes from the internal sequence.Earlier in the selloff, Bitcoin futures repeatedly failed to turn rebounds into lasting upside control. Attempts to recover higher ground kept running into overhead friction, and the market eventually lost a major fair-value pivot before probing down toward the lower edge of the broader range. That part of the story was clearly bearish.But the bearish case also stopped getting cleaner. When price pushed below the lower edge of value, that lower ground did not hold as accepted trade. Instead, Bitcoin climbed back out of the worst area, stabilized, and started building shelves of support rather than accelerating into fresh downside control.That shift matters because it tells us the market was no longer comfortable living at the lows.The latest surge then changed the picture again. It reclaimed the main fair-value pivot near $69,320 and did so with much better internal participation than the earlier repair attempts. In plain English, buyers did not just squeeze price higher for a moment. They improved the quality of the move and shifted accepted trade back toward the middle of the larger structure.That is why the score is positive.Still, the move stopped at a key pivot rather than clearly establishing new value above it. So this is best described as bullish repair with improving acceptance, not yet a fully confirmed breakout regime.The blended read: 4h chart says reclaim, internal flow says prove itThis 4-hour Bitcoin futures chart displays a significant bullish breakout from a Volume Profile perspective. By anchoring the indicator to the contract roll-over date (March 25, 2026), the chart highlights the Value Area (VA)—the price range where 70% of all trading volume has occurred since that date. The price crossing above the top blue line, known as the Value Area High (VAH), signals that the market has moved from a state of "balance" or consolidation into "imbalance." For investors, this indicates that buyers are now willing to transact at higher prices than the previous consensus, often a precursor to a sustained trend as the market seeks a new, higher fair value.Educationally, this setup teaches traders about Price Acceptance vs. Rejection. The horizontal bars on the left (Volume Profile) show where the "smart money" and institutional participants have been most active; the red line represents the Point of Control (POC), or the single price with the highest volume. When price breaks out of the VA and stays above it, it confirms acceptance of these new levels. If the price were to fall back inside the blue lines, it would suggest a "fakeout," returning to the high-liquidity zone of the POC to find support. For now, the VAH has shifted from being a ceiling (resistance) to a floor (support), a classic technical shift that trend-followers use to confirm long entriesPutting both lenses together gives a more balanced view.The 4h chart says Bitcoin futures have already done something important by reclaiming the post-roll value area. That is a visible bullish improvement.The range-based order-flow read adds the nuance. It says the market has repaired enough damage to turn constructive again, but the rally still needs confirmation through acceptance above the reclaimed fair-value zone.That is why a balanced professional stance sits between outright caution and outright bullish conviction. This is no longer a clean bearish setup, but it is also not yet the kind of mature breakout structure that deserves a high-conviction bullish score.Key Bitcoin futures levels to watch nowThe first area to watch is $69,320. That is the major fair-value pivot that has just been reclaimed. Holding above it would strengthen the bullish repair case.Just below that, the $68,650 to $68,850 area remains a key support band tied to the reclaimed value-area ceiling on the broader chart. If price stays above that region on pullbacks, the current repair remains healthy.Below there, $68,150 becomes an important secondary support reference. If the market loses that level, the quality of the reclaim starts to fade.A deeper pullback into the $67,250 to $67,160 region would weaken the bullish argument further and raise the risk that this move was only a sharp repair spike rather than a durable state change.On the upside, the market now needs to prove it can build above the reclaimed pivot and start doing business higher. The first nearby area is around $69,585, followed by the older internal overhead shelf near $70,825. Beyond that, $71,250 is a meaningful higher reference, while $72,475 remains the major upper gate from the broader value structure (and that is what may come next). A move into that area with real acceptance would shift the conversation from repair to genuine bullish control.What would strengthen the bullish case for the crypto king (and whole of crypto)For the bullish case to improve from here, Bitcoin futures should do three things:First, hold above $69,320 rather than slipping back below it quickly.Second, show that pullbacks into the high-$68K area attract support instead of immediate rejection.Third, start building accepted trade above the reclaimed pivot and then press into the next overhead shelves.If that happens, the market would be showing not just a rebound, but a real migration of value higher.What would weaken or invalidate the current read for our bitcoin's price prediction todayThe cleanest warning sign would be a fast rejection back below $69,320, especially if price then starts spending time back under $68,850 and $68,650. That would suggest the market reopened fair value but failed to hold it.A deeper loss of $68,150 would weaken the repair further.The major invalidation would be fresh acceptance back below $66,020. If Bitcoin futures start comfortably trading below that lower gate again, the current bullish-repair thesis would largely fail and the structure would tilt back toward bearish control.Why this matters for bitcoin traders and investorsValue area and point of control analysis help traders judge whether the market is being accepted at higher prices or merely visiting them briefly. That is especially useful after a sharp selloff or recovery phase. A reclaim of value often signals improving conditions, but sustainable trends usually require more than one strong push. They require follow-through and acceptance.That is where Bitcoin futures stand now.The market has improved meaningfully. The bearish damage from late March has been repaired enough to justify a moderately bullish bias. But the next step still matters a lot. Bulls have reopened higher ground. Now they need to prove they can keep it.This is a decision-support view for bitcoin investors and traders, and you can see this as an opinion not a promise and not financial advice. Always do your own research. The above is for educational purposes only. Always trade at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Trump extends Hormuz deadline to Tuesday while escalating threats to destroy Iran’s core infrastructure, keeping pressure high but leaving a narrow diplomatic window.Summary:Trump sets Tuesday 8pm USET deadline for Iran to reopen Hormuz (WSJ reporting, gated)) Deadline effectively extended from Monday Threat escalates to full power grid + bridge destruction Tone extremely aggressive, despite ongoing talk signals Iran pursuing attritional strategy, domestic mobilisation rising Market focus: oil supply risk vs. short-term diplomatic window U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Iran, warning that the country’s power infrastructure will be systematically destroyed if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening U.S. time, a de facto extension of an earlier Monday deadline.In remarks to The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the U.S. is prepared to target “every power plant and every other plant” across Iran if the strait remains closed, adding that key infrastructure including bridges would also be hit. The comments signal a sharp intensification in rhetoric, with Trump framing the U.S. as holding a dominant strategic position and suggesting Iran could take decades to recover from sustained strikes.The Tuesday 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time deadline, reinforced via a social media post replete with foul language, effectively pushes back the prior timeline by around 24 hours, giving a narrow window for potential de-escalation while maintaining a highly coercive stance.The escalation comes amid ongoing military operations and a fluid diplomatic backdrop. Trump indicated negotiations may still be underway, but offered no clarity on timing for an end to the conflict, stating only that developments would become clearer “pretty soon.”On the ground, the conflict continues to broaden. U.S. forces conducted a high-risk mission to rescue a downed American aviator inside Iran, underscoring the operational intensity. Meanwhile, Tehran appears committed to a prolonged conflict strategy, seeking to demonstrate control over regional oil flows and maintain pressure through disruption risks in the Persian Gulf.Iran has also mobilised domestically, invoking wartime narratives and recruitment drives, suggesting preparation for an extended confrontation.Markets are likely to interpret the deadline extension as a modest sign of diplomatic runway, but the increasingly explicit threat to civilian infrastructure, particularly energy and transport, reinforces the risk of a major escalation that could severely disrupt global oil supply chains.****WARNING! The screenshot of Trump's tweet has foul language, so if you may be offended please avoid it. Its unlike Trump to use such language, perhaps the pressure is impacting. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: Holiday: Easter Monday, Canadian Services/Composite PMI (Mar), US ISM Services (Mar), Australian Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), Japanese Household Spending (Feb)Tue: EIA STEO (Apr), EZ/UK Services/Composite PMI Final (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Durable Goods Orders (Feb), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar)Wed: FOMC Minutes (Mar), RBNZ Policy Announcement (Apr), RBI Policy Announcement (Apr), Australian NAB Business Confidence (Mar), Japanese Economy Watchers Survey (Mar), German Factory Orders (Feb), UK Halifax House Price Index (Mar), French Balance Of Trade (Feb), EZ/UK Construction PMI (Mar), EZ Retail Sales (Feb), EZ PPI (Feb)Thu: Japanese Consumer Confidence (Mar), German Balance Of Trade (Feb), Mexican Inflation (Mar), US PCE (Feb/Q4), US GDP (Q4), US Jobless Claims (Mar/28), US Wholesale Inventories (Feb), Japanese PPI (Mar)Fri: Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations (Apr), BoK Policy Announcement (Apr), Chinese Inflation (Mar), German HICP Final (Mar), Italian Industrial Production (Feb), Canadian Jobs Report (Mar), US Inflation (Mar), US Factory Orders (Feb), US UoM Prelim Survey (Apr)Week AheadOPEC+ (Sun):The OPEC+ JMMC and "Voluntary Eight" are due to meet on 5 April under severe conditions after the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sharply disrupted Gulf exports and forced output cuts as storage fills. Tanker traffic through Hormuz has collapsed, while infrastructure damage and logistical constraints continue to hamper flows, despite Saudi Arabia diverting exports via the East-West pipeline to Yanbu, although shipments through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remain exposed to Houthi attacks from Yemen. The OPEC+ "Voluntary Eight" must decide whether to proceed with a planned 206k BPD output increase or maintain or extend cuts to stabilise markets amid heightened volatility. Meanwhile, Reuters sources reported that OPEC+ is likely to consider a further oil output quota hike at its Sunday meeting to prepare for any easing of Hormuz export constraints. Brent has already surged about 60% in March, peaking near USD 120/bbl, while global supply losses are estimated at roughly 8mln BPD, and coordinated SPR releases, around 426mln barrels, are nearing exhaustion, expected by mid to late April. Focus will also be on any shift towards coordinated emergency measures or signalling on spare capacity use, while headline risk remains elevated ahead of the Iranian deadline on 6 April.Trump's Iran Deadline (Mon):US President Trump’s April 6 deadline at 20:00 EDT (01:00 BST on Tuesday, April 7) for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains in force, with failure to comply risking US strikes on Iran’s power grid and energy infrastructure. The deadline has been extended several times, with an initial 48-hour ultimatum lengthened to a five-day delay on March 23 and a further 10-day extension on March 26. Trump has said “talks are going very well” while reiterating that military action remains the main leverage. Rhetoric has been mixed, with early optimism tempered by Trump’s April 1 televised address, in which he warned US forces would continue hitting Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks. He said a day earlier that the broader mission could conclude within 2-3 weeks. For markets, this creates a binary near-term catalyst: a resolution, ceasefire or reopening of Hormuz would likely trigger a sharp unwind in the geopolitical risk premium, particularly in crude, while failure to meet the deadline would materially raise the probability of escalation targeting energy infrastructure, worsening supply disruptions. Focus remains on any communication ahead of the deadline, with Trump able either to extend it again or proceed with escalation.US ISM Services PMI (Mon):As a basis for comparison, S&P Global's flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index fell to 51.1 in March from 51.7 in February, an 11-month low. Services growth slowed for a second straight month as new business growth weakened and export sales fell more sharply. Firms cited softer consumer and business confidence, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, financial market volatility, higher interest rates and the cost-of-living impact of higher energy prices. Service providers also reported a weaker outlook for the year ahead, the softest since October, in contrast to improved sentiment in manufacturing. On prices, service sector cost pressures intensified and prices charged rose at the fastest pace since August 2022. Employment in services fell, contributing to the first overall decline in private sector employment in more than a year.FOMC Minutes (Wed):The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with no change to forward guidance, balance sheet plans or implementation guidance. Miran was the sole dissenter, favouring a 25bps rate cut. The statement was little changed, though it now says unemployment has been "little changed in recent months" and adds that developments in the Middle East pose uncertain implications for the US economy. The updated projections were modestly hawkish: growth forecasts were raised across 2026-2028, inflation projections were also revised higher, most notably for 2026, while the unemployment forecast for 2026 was unchanged at 4.4%, with only a slight upward revision for 2027. The median rates path was unchanged through 2028, though the longer-run Fed funds estimate edged up to 3.1%. Powell's press conference came across as hawkish despite the unchanged median dots. He stressed that persistent inflation, not weak growth, remained the main concern, highlighting sticky non-housing services, the need for more goods disinflation and upside risks from tariffs, oil and the Middle East. He said rate cuts would require renewed progress on inflation, while also noting that a rate rise was discussed, although most officials did not see it as the base case. Since the meeting, policymakers have generally endorsed the hawkish hold, with most favouring keeping rates steady until inflation shows clearer progress. Cuts remain possible only if the labour market weakens, but the bar is higher after the oil and war shock. Hikes are not the base case, though several officials say they cannot be ruled out if inflation worsens. Policymakers generally see a baseline of resilient growth, moderating inflation and only gradual labour market softening, but uncertainty has risen sharply. Officials have repeatedly stressed the "fog" around the outlook and a more difficult growth-inflation trade-off, though they have said policy is well placed to wait for clearer evidence before moving. On the Middle East conflict, officials noted possible two-sided shocks: it can lift inflation through energy and supply chains while also weighing on growth, sentiment and jobs. Policymakers have said that any short-lived shock could be looked through, but a prolonged conflict would likely delay cuts and raise the risk of a more hawkish response. Meanwhile, inflation is still seen as too high and as the main policy risk. Most say there is no clear evidence yet of second-round effects or a wage-price spiral, and expectations remain broadly anchored, but many have warned that persistent oil or supply shocks could bleed into core inflation and expectations, complicating policy.RBNZ Policy Announcement (Wed):The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% on 8 April, with markets pricing around a 97% probability of no change and a 3% chance of a 25bps hike, but the narrative has shifted towards a "hawkish hold" amid rising energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. Capital Economics, which had previously leaned dovish, now also expects a hold, while warning that persistent oil-driven inflation could prompt rate hikes before end-2026, aligning more closely with ASB and Westpac, which also expect no change this week but anticipate tightening later in the year to around 2.50%-3.00%. Focus will be on any acknowledgement of second-round effects from higher fuel and freight costs, while forward guidance will be scrutinised for signals on the timing of the first hike, with market pricing now leaning towards tightening by September rather than further easing.RBI Policy Announcement (Wed):RBI will hold its latest three-day policy meeting next week, where it is expected to pause again and keep the repurchase rate at 5.25% amid a rebound in consumer inflation and the ongoing Middle East conflict. The RBI kept rates unchanged at its February meeting, as expected, with a unanimous decision, while maintaining a neutral policy stance, though external MPC member Singh dissented, advocating a shift to an accommodative stance. The RBI said the current policy rate is appropriate, underlying inflation remains low, and the Indian economy is on a steady and improving trajectory, while noting that external headwinds had intensified since the December meeting. Governor Malhotra said net external demand remains a drag, rural demand is steady, and urban consumption is expected to strengthen, while the central bank raised its FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 2.1% from 2.0%. Singh argued that retaining a neutral stance was not appropriate at a time requiring a proactive signal, suggesting an accommodative stance would support transmission of prior rate cuts by lowering market rates, sovereign and corporate bond yields, and the spread between them. Nonetheless, recent communication from the RBI does not point to any imminent policy shift, while data also suggest limited urgency to adjust policy, with Q4 GDP Y/Y at 7.8% versus expectations of 7.2% (prev. 8.2%), and CPI Y/Y rising to 3.21% in February versus expectations of 3.1% (prev. 2.74%), moving closer to the RBI’s 4% target and marking the fastest pace in 11 months. Uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions is another factor likely to keep the RBI cautious, particularly as India is less exposed to the energy shock than other Asian economies, with refiners shifting back towards Russian crude.US PCE (Thu):The PCE data is for February, so it is overshadowed by events in the Middle East, which have stoked energy prices and raised the cost of key industrial metals and materials since then. Bloomberg's monthly economist survey raised year-end PCE estimates to 3.1% (from 2.6%), while lowering spending, growth and employment forecasts as the war in Iran lifts fuel costs. Analysts expect February PCE to print on the firm side and keep the Fed firmly in its 'higher for longer' stance, noting that the February CPI and PPI reports imply headline and core PCE rose +0.4% M/M in February, with the annual core reading easing only slightly to around 3.0% Y/Y (from 3.1%). The February CPI report looked relatively benign on the surface, but the underlying details point to hotter core PCE, while February PPI reinforced that message through stronger pass-through from hotel and motel rooms, transportation and warehousing, and some financial services. Accordingly, analysts have said inflation still looks sticky, particularly across services, and a third straight 0.4% M/M core reading would remain well above any pace consistent with a return to 2%. Such an outcome could validate traders' view that the Fed stays cautious for longer, while any upside surprise would push back rate cut expectations further. A reading below 0.4% M/M would offer some relief but could easily be dismissed as stale given events in the Middle East.BoK Policy Announcement (Fri):Bank of Korea is expected to refrain from any rate changes at next week’s policy meeting, with the base rate likely to be held at 2.50% for a seventh consecutive meeting. The BoK has kept rates unchanged since May last year and signalled little urgency to adjust policy at its February meeting, where it unanimously opted to pause and the median view was for the base rate to remain at 2.5% in six months. Projections showed that 16 of 21 board members expected the policy rate at 2.50% over the next six months, one saw it at 2.75%, and four projected 2.25% over that period. Governor Rhee said the conditional projection for a 25bps cut assumed the property market would stabilise within six months and that no board member expected rates to rise in the next three months. The BoK said it would set policy to support a recovery in growth and expects momentum to remain favourable, with strong chip exports underpinning activity. It also noted that housing price growth around Seoul has slowed and stressed the need for caution over risks tied to housing, household debt and FX volatility. The upcoming meeting will be the final rate decision under Governor Rhee, whose four-year term ends on April 20. Uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict makes a final policy move unlikely, while recent data have been soft to mixed, with final Q4 GDP contracting -0.2% Q/Q versus expectations of -0.3% (prev. 1.3%) and growing 1.6% Y/Y versus expectations of 1.7% (prev. 1.8%). CPI rose to 2.2% in March versus expectations of 2.4% (prev. 2.0%), moving away from the central bank’s medium-term target, although the increase was less pronounced than forecast and was partly contained by government measures such as fuel price caps.Chinese CPI (Fri):CPI Y/Y is expected to remain firm at around 1.2% Y/Y (prev. 1.3%), supported by higher energy prices amid the Iran conflict and improving domestic demand. ING expects positive price momentum to persist, noting PMI price sub-indices have reached their highest levels since 2022, while PPI is seen returning to positive territory at around 0.6% Y/Y for the first time since 2022. Focus will be on energy pass-through, particularly gasoline prices. For the PBoC, the data is key: a firmer inflation backdrop could reduce the urgency for near-term easing, although policymakers are still expected to weigh growth support later in Q2, leaving markets sensitive to any upside surprise that could challenge the current easing bias.Canadian Jobs (Fri):The March jobs report will be viewed to see how the Canadian labour market is faring with elevated concerns amid trade disputes with the US. The Iran conflict also poses a risk, but it may be too soon to see a true impact on the labour market. The February report was dire, and participants will be looking to see if the weakness persists. February saw 108.4k full time jobs lost with 24.5k jobs added, leaving the overall employment change at -83.9k. The latest BoC Minutes noted that recent data pointed to continued weakness in industries most exposed to trade as well as in other sectors, such as wholesale and retail trade, while some indicators suggest there could be more slowing ahead.US CPI (Fri):March CPI looks likely to show a reacceleration in headline inflation, driven mainly by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict and the associated rise in energy and commodity prices. The Cleveland Fed nowcast point to headline CPI of around 3.25% Y/Y in March (vs an actual 2.4% in February), though core inflation should be steadier at around 2.5% Y/Y, suggesting the March strength is likely to come from fuel and other energy-related components rather than a broad-based underlying inflation surge. Analysts have also noted that rising producer and factory input prices mean pipeline pressures may keep core inflation firm rather than soft. The data should keep the Fed cautious on further rate cuts. Recent commentary from Fed officials has broadly favoured keeping rates steady until inflation shows clearer progress while assessing the impact of the energy shock. Policymakers have said rate cuts would require labour market weakness, while hikes are not the base case but cannot be ruled out if inflation surges. Middle East events could raise inflation through energy and supply chains while hurting growth, so a brief shock may be looked through, but any prolonged shock would likely delay the timing of rate cuts. Officials have said inflation remains too high, with upside risks if oil shocks spill into core and expectations, though they have noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.Week In ReviewRBA Minutes (Tue):The RBA’s March meeting minutes revealed a notably hawkish tone, highlighting a narrow 5-4 split in favour of the 25bps hike, the tightest margin since vote disclosures began, with the majority citing upside inflation risks from energy shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. Policymakers warned that sustained oil prices near USD 100/bbl could push headline CPI towards around 5% in Q2 and risk unanchoring inflation expectations, reinforcing the need to keep financial conditions restrictive, a view shared across the board. However, the minority preferred to delay further tightening until May to assess incoming data on growth, consumption and the labour market, while Governor Michele Bullock emphasised heightened uncertainty around the rate path given geopolitical volatility. For markets, the minutes strengthen the case for further tightening bias, with focus now on incoming data and energy price dynamics to determine the timing of the next move.Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Tue):China’s March NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 (exp. 50.1, prev. 49.0), beating expectations and returning to expansion territory for the first time in several months, marking the strongest reading since March last year. The rebound was driven by post-Lunar New Year normalisation and increased government spending, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI also improved to 50.1, signalling a broader recovery across services and construction.EZ CPI Flash (Tue):A cooler-than-expected headline print, though it rose above the ECB’s 2.0% target from 1.9% to 2.5% Y/Y in March. In short, the release showed that, for now, the energy surge has not filtered through to other components, with core inflation easing from the prior reading and the bulk of headline price pressure coming from energy, which printed at 4.9% (prev. -3.1%). For the ECB, the data reinforces a wait-and-see approach. However, the rise in the headline rate, lags in price pass-through and the ongoing conflict mean tightening remains the market’s base case. Markets currently price just under 60bps of tightening by end-2026.BoJ Tankan Survey Q1 (Tue):The BoJ’s March Tankan survey showed continued strength in business sentiment, with the large manufacturers’ index rising to +17 (prev. +16, exp. +16), marking a fourth consecutive quarterly improvement and the highest level since late 2021, while large non-manufacturers held steady at +36, near multi-decade highs and above expectations. Inflation expectations rose to record levels at 2.6% for one year and 2.5% for three- and five-year horizons, while large firms plan to increase capex by 3.3% for FY2026, slightly above forecasts. For market participants, the focus is on whether this reinforces expectations for a potential rate hike as early as the late-April BoJ meeting.BoC Minutes (Wed):Governing Council members at the March meeting agreed on the need to keep options open, noting the more benign inflation environment is likely to be short-lived as headline inflation is expected to rise in the coming months due to higher gasoline prices. They agreed on the need for a risk management approach to monetary policy and to remain ready to respond as the outlook evolves. Policymakers held rates at 2.25%, citing uncertainty from weaker growth and upside inflation risks linked to energy prices, and said it is too early to assess the outlook. Members acknowledged that public perceptions of inflation remain elevated following the 2022 spike, with gasoline prices having a significant impact on households’ assessments. They also noted that most export weakness has been driven by temporary factors that should unwind in the coming months.US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Wed):ISM Manufacturing in March rose to 52.7 from 52.4, above expectations of 52.3. Prices jumped to 78.3 (exp. 72.5, prev. 70.5), potentially reflecting the Iran conflict, while new orders fell to 53.5 from 55.8. Employment was little changed at 48.7 from 48.8. Production and supplier deliveries increased to 55.1 (prev. 53.5) and 58.9 (prev. 55.1), respectively, while inventories declined to 47.1 from 48.8. The backlog of orders fell but remained above 50, while new export orders and imports declined, with the former dropping below 50. Survey respondents frequently cited Iran and the Middle East, marking the first report in which panellists referenced the Iran war as a factor affecting business. Comments included: 1) “The actions in Iran add a new wrinkle to energy costs throughout the world, and we continue to plan for the unpredictable and unexpected”; 2) “Current Middle East unrest is already starting to impact business operations by increasing lead times, costs, container delays and the like.” 3) “Ongoing geopolitical instability has emerged as a persistent factor influencing global trade dynamics”. 4) “The Middle East war has created domestic and global turmoil for the olefins and polyolefins business”.US Retail Sales (Wed):Retail sales rose 0.6%, above expectations of 0.4%, marking a solid rebound and the strongest reading in seven months after a prior 0.2% decline. The increase was driven by higher sales at department stores (3%), health and personal care stores (2.3%), and clothing (2%). The core control group rose 0.5% (prev. and exp. 0.3%). Ex-autos rose 0.5% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.0%), while ex-gas/autos rose 0.4% (prev. 0.3%). Oxford Economics expects the war with Iran to begin weighing on retail sales in March, as higher spending on gasoline crowds out discretionary purchases. The firm cautions the impact may take longer to materialise than usual, as households are supported by a large increase in tax refunds.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.