Latest news
OPEC+ will increase oil output production more than expected: +548,000 (+411,000 expected)
OPEC+ will raise oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. This is faster than expected. OPEC+ had previously announced increases of 411,000 barrels per day for each month of May, June and July, and this was the increase expected to be announced at Saturday's meeting. OPEC+ cited:steady global economic outlookcurrent healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventoriesOil media reports cite unnamed members of the cartel as saying the group will consider the boosted 548,000 barrels a day for September output once again at the next meeting, scheduled for August 3. -The increase in output marks a significant shift from years of supply restraint. The jump in production aligns with a perceived shift in strategy from OPEC+ to market share (US shale drillers took some volumes away from OPEC+ members previously) over price defence.The background to this is that back in 2023 the group announced 2.2 million bpd in cuts. The 411K boosts to output are unwinding these cuts, the 548K announced Saturday accelerates the unwind. Notes:there is still a further 1.66 million bpd of idle capacitydespite the official increase, actual output may fall short
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
US stock market sentiment is nearing frothy levels. What to watch for
US stock market sentiment might feel frothy because it's been a one-way TACO trade since Trump backed down on Liberation Day tariffs but most sentiment surveys weren't overly frothy.That could be changing. The AAII survey -- which is a solid one -- rose in the latest week to 45% bullish from 35.1%. That's a big jump and reflects a market that's hitting all-time highs almost daily. Still, it's not quite into territory that I would consider frothy, which is above 50%. Last year it peaked in mid-July at 52.7% bullish. You will note that the S&P 500 then fell 9% in less than a month as the market began to worry about job losses and the election. The Fed then came to the rescue and stocks snapped back.Given where this is, I still wouldn't say that longs are too crowded to chase but if it rises above 52, then be cautious. Can the S&P 500 get to 6500 first? 7000?
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Happy 4th of July!
Get some good rest with this long weekend because next week we have some important events that could potentially trigger big moves in the markets. The focus will be on Trump's letters with the new tariff rates and the US CPI. I think the CPI will be more important given that Trump put August 1st as the deadline for the new tariffs, and it therefore looks like another "TACO game". Nonetheless, it might still keep things volatile, so headline risk will be high next week. That's it for the week.Happy Fourth of July!
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Canada June S&P Global services PMI 44.3 vs 45.6 prior
Composite PMI 44.0 vs 45.5 priorKey findings:Lack of new business weighs on activity
Costs and selling prices rise at greater rates
Confidence in outlook remains subduedComment:Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market
Intelligence, said:
“Canada’s services economy remained deep inside
contraction territory during June, as uncertainty
caused in the main by US trade policies continued to
weigh heavily on activity and new business volumes.
International demand was again especially hard hit,
and the outlook remains subdued given widespread
uneasiness and challenges in forecasting business
trends in the months ahead.
“Positively, firms added to their staffing levels in June
although, reflective of the uncertain outlook and rising
labour expenses, recruitment tended to be for part-
time workers. On the price front, operating costs rose
to the greatest degree since October 2022 which served
to push up selling prices at a faster pace despite the
challenging business environment.”
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
ECB's Makhlouf: Inflation expectations are well anchored
Inflation expectations are well anchored.ECB must be more agile when using forward guidance.These are just token remarks and the ECB has been more inclined to give potential scenarios rather than clear forward guidance lately due to uncertainty. The market is fully pricing one last 25 bps cut, possibly in December unless another surge in the euro or more soft inflation reports force them to cut in September.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
India proposes retaliatory duties at WTO against US tariffs on auto parts - Statement
India is proposing retaliatory duties at WTO against US tariffs on auto parts. They say 25% import tariff on vehicles and some auto parts by US amounts to safeguard measures. India reserves the right to suspend concessions and other obligations equivalent to the adverse effects of US measures on India's trade.India reserves the right to increase tariffs on selected products exported by the US after 30 days from July 4th.Except UK and Vietnam, Trump's team hasn't done much progress with the other trade partners. Japan was said to be the easiest one and India was once expected to be the first trade deal to be signed. That went completely awry. Now this might still be the usual tariffs noise as they continue to negotiate and try to get concessions. Trump putting another deadline on August 1st should be the signal that things are not yet as bad as they look.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Markets remain rangebound as US holiday keeps things quiet
There's basically nothing on the agenda today other than the Canadian Services PMI. The newsflow has been very limited and the price action in markets has been mostly rangebound. The NFP spikes have mostly been erased both in FX and US equity indices. The White House today is expected to begin sending letters to trade partners with the new tariff rates they are going to pay the US. Trump said that he expected "10 or 12" letters to be sent today with more coming in the next days and the process should be completed by the next week's July 9th deadline.The worrying part is that he added that tariffs will range "from 60% or 70% to 10% and 20%". The good news is that he attached once again a deadline, that is August 1st, which is when the US will start to earn the new tariffs. Trump has been playing this game since the "Liberation Day" back in April, so it might be another empty threat just to speed up the process and get the countries to accept 10-20% tariffs.In the past months, we had multiple reports saying that businesses have been planning with a 10-20% tariff range in mind, so higher than that would be above expectations and therefore a negative growth driver. It might not matter until August 1st, but it's still a risk.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Credit Agricole: Political risks and gilt market memories haunt GBP outlook
Credit Agricole highlights that renewed political and fiscal risks are weighing heavily on the GBP, with echoes of the traumatic September 2022 gilt crisis continuing to shape investor sentiment. Uncertainty over UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ future and the Government’s fiscal credibility is keeping GBP vulnerable.Key Points:Fiscal Austerity and Policy U-Turns:• Investors remain concerned about the growth-negative impact of last year’s fiscal austerity measures, which took effect in April.• A backbencher rebellion forced PM Starmer’s Government to water down a welfare reform bill, sacrificing GBP 5bn in planned savings and calling into question Labour’s pledge to avoid tax hikes.Political Drama Adds to FX Nerves:• Chancellor Reeves appeared visibly distraught in Parliament as PM Starmer failed to openly back her, triggering speculation about her future and renewed selling of gilts and GBP.• Markets worry that Reeves’ potential departure would damage fiscal credibility, a reminder of the September 2022 mini-budget chaos.Data Focus – But Politics Front and Centre:• Final UK PMIs for June will be watched for signs that the worst of the recent slowdown is over.• However, Credit Agricole warns that better data alone may not be enough: FX investors will demand clarity on the Government’s fiscal policy and leadership.Lingering Gilt Market Trauma:• Memories of the 2022 gilt market meltdown and GBP crash continue to shape sentiment, leaving GBP exposed to any renewed questions about fiscal discipline.Conclusion:Credit Agricole believes GBP remains under political and fiscal pressure, with investors sensitive to any sign that the UK’s fiscal credibility could unravel again. Until Chancellor Reeves’ position and the Government’s policy path are clarified, GBP consolidation will remain elusive, with the haunting memory of the 2022 gilt crisis casting a long shadow over the currency’s near-term outlook.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar a touch lower, equities down ahead of US holiday
Headlines:Traders pare back their dovish bets on the Fed after the positive NFP reportTrump says countries have to start paying tariffs on 1 AugustMore on Trump saying he'll begin sending tariff letters on FridayChina issues final ruling on EU brandy probe, to impose duties up to 34.9%OPEC+ meeting has been moved to Saturday 5th of July due to Ashura holidayECB's Lagarde: We will do whatever we must do to reach inflation targetECB's Villeroy: Euro appreciation has a clear disinflationary effectEurozone May PPI -0.6% vs -0.5% m/m expectedItaly May retail sales -0.4% vs -0.7% priorGermany May industrial orders -1.4% vs -0.1% m/m expectedGermany June construction PMI 44.8 vs 44.4 priorUK June construction PMI 48.8 vs 48.4 expectedMarkets:JPY leads, AUD lags on the dayEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.6%Gold up 0.3% to $3,336.22WTI crude down 0.9% to $66.42Bitcoin down 0.8% to $109,100As we gear towards the long weekend in the US, markets in general are also taking a bit of a breather for the most part. It was quiet in European trading today with little in terms of anything to work with.Trump was up late yesterday, announcing that he will be sending letters to about 10 to 12 countries today on higher tariffs to start with. That will continue on through to next week. Those tariffs are to go into effect from 1 August though, so there is still time between now and then for things to change.But as the trade focus returns, risk sentiment is seen slipping back with Wall Street also set to be out of action until next week. European indices are down across the board with French stocks leading declines after China confirmed higher duties on French cognac makers, even if some of the bigger names might be spared.In FX, the dollar is giving back much of its gains following the stronger US non-farm payrolls data from yesterday. EUR/USD is back up around 1.1775 while USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 144.30 levels on the day. USD/CHF is also seen down 0.2% to 0.7930 currently.Against the commodity currencies, the dollar isn't doing all too much with the changes there being relatively light amid narrower ranges. USD/CAD is up 0.1% to 1.3590 while AUD/USD is down 0.1% to 0.6560 on the day.All in all, it points to the dollar's strength yesterday as not really changing the bigger picture by much. As we look to next week, the focus will turn back to trade headlines and we'll have to see how the dollar hangs in there again after having been pressured consistently in the months before when markets have kept their attention on the US administration's policy incoherence and unpredictability.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
OPEC+ meeting has been moved to Saturday 5th of July due to Ashura holiday
Reuters reports that the OPEC+ meeting has been moved to Saturday 5th of July due to Ashura holiday. The group has been steadily adding back oil output since April and it's expected to deliver another 411,000 output hike for August.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Technical Analysis for 4th of July
NASDAQ Futures Technical Analysis – July 4, 2025Published by InvestingLive.com, the upcoming evolution of ForexLiveWhat is the current trend in NASDAQ futures?As the above Nasdaq Futures Technical Analysis video of today shows, as of July 4, 2025, NASDAQ futures are showing signs of a short-term pullback after a strong upward breakout. On the 30-minute chart, the market previously broke out above the December 24 all-time high, forming a rising channel. After consolidating briefly and retesting the breakout zone, price action continued higher, reaching above the midpoint of the ascending channel.Currently, the price is retreating from that mid-channel zone, with futures down approximately 0.6 percent. This is considered a meaningful decline given the context of recent bullish momentum and the lighter liquidity environment due to the U.S. holiday.Why does today’s price action matter if U.S. markets are closed?Although U.S. equity markets are closed in observance of Independence Day, NASDAQ futures continue to trade. Global flows, especially from Europe, remain active. These sessions can offer important price signals, particularly when futures deviate from expected range behavior. In this case, the market’s rejection from mid-channel suggests that buyers may be stepping back temporarily.What are the key support levels to watch?The primary technical support zone now lies between 22,830 and 22,855. This green-shaded region aligns with the lower pane of the gray ascending channel drawn from the recent breakout.Should that area fail to hold, the next level to monitor is 22,775, which corresponds with the VWAP from July 2. A decisive break below this VWAP level could open the door for a broader correction or a more significant trend shift.Is the overall trend still bullish?Yes, the larger trend remains bullish as long as price stays within the rising channel structure. However, today’s pullback may indicate that momentum is cooling off in the short term. If buyers defend the lower channel edge and VWAP, a new leg higher remains possible. Conversely, a clean break of these levels may shift the narrative to caution or neutral.What should traders keep in mind?This session is unfolding with reduced U.S. participation, so caution is warranted. Key support tests around 22,830 to 22,855 could set the tone for the next move. A break below 22,775 should be taken seriously, as it would mark a shift below both the channel and the VWAP reference point.As always, trade at your own risk and use well-defined risk management protocols.Note: This technical analysis was published on ForexLive.com, which is rebranding as InvestingLive.com later this summer. Once the transition is complete, all visitors to ForexLive will be automatically redirected to the new domain, where you will find expanded coverage of equities, futures, crypto, and long-term investing strategies.Stay tuned for more updates at investingLive.com – where markets meet strategy, market news meets intelligentinterpretation and where you can meet actionable investing and trading insights.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
Traders pare back their dovish bets on the Fed after the positive NFP report
Rate cuts by year-endFed: 54 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 26 bps (88% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoE: 53 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
BoC: 30 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
RBA: 77 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 31 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
SNB: 11 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-endBoJ: 11 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)The
most notable change was of course on the Fed. The catalyst was the positive US NFP report yesterday which saw traders paring back their dovish bets from 67 bps of easing by year-end to 54 bps now.There's been also some change for the SNB and BoJ pricing. The former was influenced by higher than expected Swiss CPI data, while the latter by the lack of progress in the US-Japan trade negotiations (which are key for the BoJ).
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Eurozone May PPI -0.6% vs -0.5% m/m expected
Prior -2.2%PPI +0.3% vs +0.3% y/y expectedPrior +0.7%Looking at the breakdown, the main drag was actually energy prices which declined by 2.1% on the month. If you strip that out, euro area producer prices were actually up 0.1% in May. That owes to an increase in prices for durable consumer goods (+0.3%) and non-durable consumer goods (+0.2%), slightly offset by a decline in prices for intermediate goods (-0.1%). The prices for capital goods were flat.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
ECB's Villeroy: Euro appreciation has a clear disinflationary effect
Strong euro may increase the risk of undershooting on inflationClosely watching exchange rate volatilityDon't see any inflationary effects from US tariffsECB is in a good position on rates and inflationBut must remain completely optional on ratesHe's not the first one to be touching on the euro currency in the past few weeks. That's as good a signal as any that policymakers are definitely keeping a close eye on things. I mean, they seldom - if ever - comment on the currency levels so it is worth noting.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
UK June construction PMI 48.8 vs 48.4 expected
Prior 47.9That's the sixth month running that total activity has fallen but at least at a lesser pace in June. That being said, new orders is an issue as it continues to decline at a quicker pace on the month. That is leading business optimism to dwindle further to its lowest in two-and-a-half years. S&P Global notes that:"June data highlighted a sustained downturn in UK
construction output, albeit at the slowest pace in six
months.
"Shrinking workloads in the commercial and civil
engineering segments weighed on total industry activity.
Commercial activity fell at the sharpest rate in just over
five years.
"On a brighter note, house building was the bestperforming area of the construction sector. Higher levels
of residential work were recorded for the first time since
September 2024 amid some reports of more stable
demand conditions.
"The forward-looking survey indicators were weaker
than in May. Total new orders fell at a faster pace as
many construction companies signalled reduced overall
workloads due to unfavourable domestic economic
conditions and fragile confidence among clients.
"At the same time, business activity expectations dipped
to a two-and-a-half-year low in June. Survey respondents
widely cited fewer tender opportunities, rising
competition for new work and a projected headwind from
subdued business investment during the year ahead."
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Italy May retail sales -0.4% vs -0.7% prior
Prior -0.7%Retail sales y/y +1.3% vs +3.7% priorIn the three months to May 2025, retail sales fell by 0.1% in value
and by 0.5% in volume compared to the previous three-month period.Compared to May 2024, retail sales increased by 3.2% for large-scale
distribution, decreased by 0.4% for small-scale distribution, remained
stable for non-store sales and fell by 0.9% for online sales.As for non-food products, year-on-year trends varied across
categories. The largest increases were seen in Cosmetic and toilet
articles (+4.3%) and Optical instruments and photographic equipment
(+2.7%), while the most marked declines were recorded in Stationery,
books, newspapers and magazines (-3.5%) and Computers and
telecommunications equipment (-2.6%).
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Germany June construction PMI 44.8 vs 44.4 prior
Germany's construction sector remains in contraction territory, but at least the rate of decline slowed towards the end of Q2. That is helped by a stronger upturn in both civil engineering and commercial activity. However, even that hasn't been enough to offset the drag from residential activity - which remains a big factor in weighing down business confidence as well. HCOB notes that:“The construction sector remains in recession, although it is not quite as deep as it was in the first quarter and for most of
the two years prior to that. Residential construction is the sector that has been hit hardest, while commercial construction is
showing the first vague signs of stabilisation and only civil engineering is seeing growth again. However, the expected upturn
in civil engineering will not be enough in the short term to bring the sector back to growth overall.
“In civil engineering, the planned infrastructure package is already having an impact. The index has now risen for the third
month in a row and, for the first time since August 2023, visible growth is now also being reported. This is not yet direct
money from the €500 billion package, but it can be assumed that private companies, anticipating a surge in future projects,
have an interest in completing existing orders quickly to make room for new ones.
“Rising construction costs weighed on the construction sector in June, with input price inflation increasing to its highest level
in 28 months. The companies surveyed cited higher material costs and rising labour costs, which are being passed on to
construction companies by suppliers. Accordingly, the rates that subcontractors are charging have also risen, even though
their availability has increased significantly. Against this backdrop, the new German government's decision to raise the
minimum wage by more than 8% to €13.90 from January 1, 2026, will certainly not please companies in the construction
industry.
“The confidence that seemed to be emerging in May turned back into pessimism in June. This is mainly due to the housing
sector, where the recession has deepened again. The Housing Activity Index has now fallen for two months in a row despite
an eighth interest rate cut by the ECB. This is also due to the fact that long-term interest rates remain relatively high, as the
rise in public debt, among other things, is preventing a decline in yields.”
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
China issues final ruling on EU brandy probe, to impose duties up to 34.9%
China is playing hardball here as they are not going to endorse the reported tentative deal with French cognac makers from last week. For some background: China reportedly seeks to tie French cognac deal with EV tariff talksThe duties will be implemented for a period of five years starting from 5 July. However, there will be some exceptions. It is unclear but China is saying that there will be no duties for "some imports complying with agreed terms". I reckon that should be interpreted as until the EU does something about EV tariffs against China.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
USDJPY Technical Analysis – The positive NFP report wasn’t enough for the USD
Fundamental
OverviewThe USD got a boost
yesterday as the US
NFP report came out better than expected and triggered a hawkish repricing
in interest rates expectations. Unfortunately for the greenback, that wasn’t
enough as wage growth came out on the softer side which limited further
repricing. As the market got quickly back to price just two rate cuts by
year-end, the US dollar lost support and eventually gave back most of the gains.
On the JPY side, nothing
has changed fundamentally, and the currency has been mainly driven by the risk
sentiment. As a reminder, the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and
reduced the bond tapering plan for fiscal year 2026 as expected at the last
meeting. The BoJ continues to place a great deal on the US-Japan trade deal and
the evolution of inflation before looking at adjusting rates.USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY continues to trade in a range between the 142.35 support and
the 146.00 resistance. There’s not much we can glean from
this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above the key 144.25 zone yesterday following the
positive NFP report and it’s now retesting the area. This is where we can
expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for
further upside into the 146.28 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will
look for a break lower to pile in for a drop back into the 142.35 support. USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline
defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely
continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the
142.35 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Watch the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
European indices marked down at the open today
Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.8%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.5%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1%This comes with S&P 500 futures seen down by 0.3% as well. The Globex is still open for a while more but as a reminder, US markets are closed today in observance of the 4th of July weekend. The overall risk mood is leaning to the more cautious side as Trump is stirring up the tariffs focus again, reaffirming that countries will be slapped with a step up in tariffs on 1 August.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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