The minutes carry more weight than usual this cycle because Chair Warsh's July statement was deliberately brief and offered little forward guidance, leaving markets largely in the dark on how the committee is thinking beyond the three known dissents. A hawkish tone, particularly explicit discussion of inflation risk from energy prices, could extend the recent push in Treasury yields and firm the dollar. A softer or more balanced tone risks being read two ways given how much weaker growth data has looked since the meeting, so the market reaction may hinge less on the headline tone and more on whether the Fed's June and July thinking still holds up against July's payrolls and retail sales misses. Desks will be watching specifically for any reference to the Strait of Hormuz or Middle East energy disruption as an inflation risk, since that would tie the minutes directly to the ongoing Gulf story.---My preview of the following event, Jackson Hole:Jackson Hole hype outruns Warsh playbook of saying as little as possible--- Wednesday's FOMC minutes should reveal how united the Fed's hawks really are behind a deliberately bare July statement.Summary:Minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting are scheduled for release Wednesday at 2pm ET, three weeks after the decision as per standard practiceThe Fed held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a fifth straight meeting, with three members dissenting in favour of a hikeChair Warsh's statement was kept short and offered minimal forward guidance, so the minutes are the first real insight into the depth of the hawkish campPre-meeting positioning suggested some officials view current rates as insufficiently restrictive, while others were seen as leaning toward a hike if inflation failed to improve, without yet feeling urgencyGrowth data released since the meeting has included negative July payrolls, weaker retail sales and softer consumer sentimentMarkets are pricing a high probability of a September rate hike, so the minutes are being read more for tone and committee unity than for the July decision itself Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 policy meeting are due for release Wednesday at 2pm ET, and traders across rates, FX and energy markets will be parsing them closely for clues the central bank's public statement deliberately withheld.The Fed held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a fifth consecutive meeting, but three voting members dissented in favour of a hike, a notable split for a committee under a chair who has pledged to offer less forward guidance than his predecessors. Warsh's post-meeting statement was kept short, giving markets little sense of how the broader committee is weighing the inflation outlook beyond the known dissents. That brevity is precisely why the minutes matter more this cycle than in a typical meeting.Ahead of the decision, some Fed watchers had flagged a widening gap between an increasingly vocal hawkish minority, who argue current policy is not restrictive enough, and a larger bloc of officials who were seen as more patient but willing to shift toward tightening if inflation failed to show clearer signs of improvement. The minutes should show whether that middle group's language has hardened since June, and how explicitly officials discussed the risk that elevated oil prices, tied to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East tensions, could feed through into broader inflation.Complicating the picture is the amount of economic data that has emerged since the meeting took place. July payrolls came in negative, the labour force contracted, retail sales fell 0.6 percent and preliminary consumer sentiment readings dropped sharply. None of that was available to the committee when it met, of course, meaning the minutes will reflect a snapshot of Fed thinking that may already look somewhat dated against the current growth picture, even if the inflation risks it discusses remain very much live.Market pricing currently points to a high probability of a hike at the Fed's September meeting, so the immediate reaction to Wednesday's minutes is likely to hinge less on whether officials would have preferred to move in July and more on how united and urgent the committee sounds heading into the next decision. A hawkish tone would likely extend the recent rise in Treasury yields and support the dollar, while a more measured or divided tone could offer some relief to rate-sensitive equity sectors that have been under pressure from the recent run-up in borrowing costs.Federal Reserve Chair Warsh   This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran's formal denial deepens the standoff with the UAE rather than resolving it, keeping a layer of uncertainty over Gulf risk premia already elevated by the Hormuz closure and wider US-Iran tensions. Traders will read the exchange of accusations as a sign that direct confrontation between Iran and a major Gulf oil and shipping hub remains a live risk, even without independent confirmation of what happened. The reference to alleged false flag activity signals Tehran expects further accusations and is pre-positioning its response, which could sustain a steady drip of headline risk in the days ahead. For now the denial alone is unlikely to move oil much beyond the existing Strait of Hormuz risk premium, but it keeps the UAE-Iran channel firmly on the list of flashpoints traders are watching alongside the main US-Iran track.---Earlier:Oil catch up - prices hit three-week high as Iran vows offensive stance, denies UAE missile claimOil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw and huge diesel drawUAE halts all trade and financial dealings with Iran, MoFA official says--- Iran has flatly denied firing missiles at the UAE, calling the accusation baseless and warning against further unfounded claims.Summary:Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei rejected the UAE's accusation that Iran fired missiles at the countryHe said such actions would violate good neighbourly relations and undermine trust and stability efforts among regional statesBaghaei called on all parties to avoid unfounded accusations against IranHe cited what he described as the complex regional situation caused by continued malicious actions from the US and Israel, including alleged false flag operations in recent yearsThe statement follows the UAE's earlier announcement suspending trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran Iran's Foreign Ministry has rejected accusations from the United Arab Emirates that it fired missiles at the country, with spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei calling the claims unfounded and warning they risk destabilising the region further.Speaking on Wednesday, Baghaei said any such action would run counter to the principle of good neighbourly relations and would undermine ongoing efforts to build trust among regional states and prevent a further escalation of insecurity. He urged all parties to refrain from levelling unfounded accusations against Iran.The spokesman framed the denial within a broader narrative of regional instability, pointing to what he characterised as the continued malicious conduct of the United States and Israel toward regional peace and security. He specifically referenced a pattern of alleged false flag operations in recent years, suggesting Tehran views the UAE's accusation as part of that pattern rather than an isolated incident.The exchange follows the UAE's announcement earlier this week that it had suspended all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran, a move Abu Dhabi tied to regional escalations threatening peace and security. The UAE separately said it had detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory against the country, an allegation Tehran has now formally and firmly rejected.The dispute adds a further complication to an already fraught picture across the Gulf, where the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial shipping and diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States have stalled. With both Abu Dhabi and Tehran now trading direct accusations, the risk of miscommunication or further escalation between two major regional players has increased, even as neither side has presented independently verified evidence of what transpired. Analysts and regional observers will be watching closely for any additional statements from either government, as well as for signs of whether the episode remains contained to a war of words or spills into further action.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The combination of Iran's declared shift to a more offensive posture, its denial of the UAE missile allegations, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping a firm floor under crude even as daily headline volatility fades. Traders are increasingly looking past individual statements and focusing on the physical reality that vessel transits remain in the single digits, though covert flows from Saudi Arabia and Chinese buyers are quietly cushioning some of the supply loss. The muted price reaction to Trump's comments that the strait remains open, despite talks being neither underway nor scheduled, suggests the market has largely priced in a prolonged standoff rather than an imminent resolution. Widening attacks, from the Houthi strike on Red Sea shipping to the projectile damage reported near Hormuz, add further layers of geopolitical risk premium that could resurface sharply if any incident escalates into direct confrontation.---This is my daily catch up post for those of us in Asia Pacific just waking up!Just posted:UAE halts all trade and financial dealings with Iran, MoFA official saysOil: Private survey of inventory shows headline crude oil draw and huge diesel draw--- Oil extended its climb as Iran hardened its posture and denied striking the UAE, deepening doubts over any near-term Hormuz resolution.Summary:Brent settled at $91.02 a barrel (up 0.17%) and WTI at $84.94 (up 0.52%), both three-week highsIran's top negotiator said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Washington meets the conditions of June's interim deal, after a senior Iranian official said the country would adopt a fully offensive military postureTrump said no talks with Iran are underway or scheduled, while maintaining that the strait remains openThe UAE said it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran against the country; Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejected the claim and warned against baseless accusations of staged attacksYemen's Houthis attacked vessels in the Red Sea described as a Saudi warship and its escorts, while UK maritime authorities reported a separate vessel struck by a projectile near Hormuz, causing a crew casualtySaudi Aramco resumed loadings from inside the strait and two Chinese shipping firms began collecting cargoes outside the Gulf, easing some supply worries even as strait transits stay in the single digits Oil prices settled at their highest level in more than three weeks on Tuesday, as Iran signalled a harder line in its standoff with the United States and denied responsibility for missiles the UAE says were launched against it. Brent crude finished at $91.02 a barrel and WTI at $84.94, both the strongest closes since late July, even as the day's individual headlines produced only modest price swings.The tone came from Tehran. Iran's chief negotiator said the Strait of Hormuz will remain shut until Washington satisfies the conditions of the interim deal signed in June, a position that followed a senior Iranian official telling Reuters the country would move to a fully offensive military posture as hopes for a lasting settlement stall. President Trump, for his part, said no talks with Iran were taking place or scheduled, while insisting the strait itself remains open and the US naval blockade in full effect.The UAE, whose Ministry of Foreign Affairs said earlier this week that it had halted all trade, commercial and financial dealings with Iran over regional escalations, went further on Tuesday, saying it had detected two ballistic missiles fired from Iranian territory against the country. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson rejected the allegation outright, cautioning against what officials characterised as false and baseless claims of staged attacks. The exchange sharpens the picture behind Abu Dhabi's earlier economic move, suggesting the halt in trade may have been as much a response to direct military threats as a diplomatic statement.Elsewhere in the region, Yemen's Houthis said they had launched missiles at a Saudi warship and its escort vessels in the Red Sea, and the UK's maritime trade monitoring office reported a separate vessel struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting out of Hormuz, damaging its engine room and causing a crew casualty.Despite the escalation, physical supply is proving more resilient than the rhetoric implies. Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings from inside the strait and is offering cargoes via ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah, while two Chinese shipping majors have begun collecting cargoes from outside the Gulf chokepoint altogether. Analysts said the market has largely absorbed months of similar headlines without a clear resolution, leaving prices supported but the upside for now still contained. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil inventory data, via oilprice.com:more to comeDiesel is getting out of control, inflation impact imminent (higher):investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Diesel crack hits record $102, gold fell under $4400 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The suspension of trade, commercial and financial dealings between the UAE and Iran adds a fresh layer of geopolitical risk to an already tense Gulf backdrop. Traders will watch for signs the move signals a wider regional realignment against Tehran, which could tighten sentiment around Gulf shipping lanes and Strait of Hormuz risk premia. Any perception that Abu Dhabi is aligning with sanctions style measures against Iran could feed into oil risk premiums, even without a direct supply disruption. Markets will also look for reciprocal signals from Tehran or other Gulf states before pricing in a lasting shift in regional trade flows.--- The UAE has cut all commercial and financial ties with Iran as regional tensions escalate.Summary:MoFA's Director of the Strategic Communications Department, Afra Al Hameli, rejected claims about the state of UAE-Iran economic relationsShe confirmed all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further noticeThe halt is linked to regional escalations viewed as undermining regional and international peace and securityAl Hameli reaffirmed the UAE's commitment to dialogue, cooperation and regional integration as tools for stability and prosperityShe stressed the UAE's commitment to protecting the integrity of the international financial system, in line with international law and global standards The United Arab Emirates has halted all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, according to a senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs official, who also pushed back on speculation about the true state of Emirati-Iranian economic ties.Afra Al Hameli, Director of the Strategic Communications Department at MoFA, rejected allegations circulating about the nature of the relationship between the two countries. She said the decision to halt trade, commerce and financial transactions came in response to regional escalations that threaten to undermine both regional and international peace and security.Despite the halt, Al Hameli was careful to frame the move within a broader diplomatic posture, reiterating that the UAE remains committed to dialogue, cooperation and regional integration as the preferred paths toward peace, stability and prosperity across the region. That framing suggests Abu Dhabi wants the suspension read as a targeted, security driven response rather than a wholesale rupture in its regional diplomacy.Al Hameli also emphasised the UAE's intent to safeguard the integrity of the international financial system, saying any measures taken align with international law and the highest global standards. That language points to concerns in Abu Dhabi about compliance and reputational risk within global financial and banking networks, particularly given the UAE's role as a major regional financial and trade hub.The announcement comes against a backdrop of heightened regional tension, though the statement does not specify which escalation prompted the decision. For now, the halt appears to apply broadly across trade, commercial exchange and financial transactions, with no timeline given for review or reinstatement. Further clarity is likely to depend on how regional dynamics with Iran evolve in the coming weeks.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia's Wage Price Index rose 0.8% in Q1 2026, matching expectations. Private-sector wage growth kept slowing to the softest annual pace this cycle (3.2%), while public-sector gains cooled also. Q2 is expected to look similar. Q3 might heat up, the mimimum wage increase will feed through, but that's an issue for later! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canadian dollar extends losses as US downplays hopes for trade deal with CanadaCanadian and US negotiators are expected to meet again ahead of midnight tariff deadlineCleveland Fed survey: businesses expect inflation to ease, investment to weaken over the coming yearPentagon weighing a smaller US military presence in the Gulf once the Iran war ends - WaPoCanadian Dollar comes under renewed pressure as Trump tariff deadline approachesAtlanta Fed GDPNow downgrades Q3 growth estimate to 4.03% vs 4.31% priorTrump says there are no talks going on, or scheduled, with Iran; US naval blockade remains in full forceThe yen remains under pressure despite interventionUS July industrial production +0.2% vs +0.3% expectedUS July import prices -0.4% vs +0.1% expectedCrypto market today: Bitcoin reclaims key price level $64,000, but the recovery still needs proofUS July housing starts 1.239m vs 1.350m expectedADP weekly NER pulse 9.50K vs 8.25K priorWe got a couple of US economic reports today but the highlights have been US-Iran headlines and US-Canada tariff negotiations. In terms of economic data, US housing starts fell to an annualized 1.239 million in July, down 12.4% from June and 13.5% from a year earlier. Single-family starts also declined, while completions dropped 9.1% month-on-month. The weakness was partly offset by building permits rising 5.0% to 1.443 million, suggesting that future construction plans remain firmer than current activity. US import prices fell 0.4% in July, following a 0.3% decline in June. Lower fuel import prices more than offset higher nonfuel import prices, while export prices fell a sharper 1.3%. Despite the monthly decline, import prices remained 5.9% higher y/y.US industrial production increased 0.2% in July, matching the pace of manufacturing growth. Mining output also rose 0.2%, while utilities advanced 0.5%. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles performed somewhat better, rising 0.4%. Capacity utilization edged up to 76.3% from 76.2% in the prior month.Markets got a bit nervous after US President Trump said that no talks or negotiations with Iran are currently taking place or scheduled, while confirming that the US naval blockade remains in force. Trump also said the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating and that mines had been removed or detonated. Iran, however, continues to maintain that the strait remains closed until demands and conditions are addressed, highlighting the deep disconnect between Washington and Tehran. The Canadian dollar weakened as markets continued to price the risk of US tariffs taking effect. US's planned 50% tariffs on Canadian imports are scheduled to take effect on August 19 without a last-minute breakthrough or postponement. The tariff threat has also affected expectations for the Bank of Canada, with markets reducing expectations for further rate increases as trade uncertainty weighs on the Canadian economy.The loonie eventually bounced toward the end of the session after a Politico report suggested that Trump was weighing whether to grant Canada a tariff reprieve, raising hopes that the planned 50% duties could be delayed or avoided. The move came as US and Canadian negotiators continued last-minute discussions ahead of the midnight deadline, with markets pricing in a greater probability of a compromise. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full report herePolitico is reporting that a potential interim trade deal between the US and Canada is now on President Trump’s desk, according to people familiar with the negotiations, leaving Trump to decide whether to accept an interim deal before broader USMCA talks or allow the planned 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods to take effect at midnight on August 19.US and Canadian negotiators have held intensive talks in recent days, attempting to resolve several longstanding trade disputes. The emerging package would reportedly include Canadian concessions on dairy tariffs, the removal of some Canadian retaliatory measures against US goods, including provincial restrictions on US alcohol, and progress toward reducing US tariffs on Canadian automobiles.However, autos remain the biggest sticking point. Canada is seeking reductions in the 25% US tariffs on automobiles and wants the duties to apply primarily to vehicle content produced outside North America. Washington, meanwhile, continues to push Canada to remove barriers to US products and address its protectionist policies.The proposed agreement is being viewed as an “early harvest” or interim deal that could unlock broader negotiations over the USMCA, the North American trade agreement scheduled for review this year. The political stakes are significant for both governments. Canadian Prime Minister Carney faces domestic pressure against making concessions to Washington, particularly given widespread Canadian frustration with Trump's trade policies and his repeated comments about Canada becoming the 51st US state.Trump also faces political risks if tariffs go ahead. Higher trade costs could create additional economic pressure ahead of the US midterm elections, particularly in states such as Michigan and Maine, where Canada-US trade is economically important.Steel and aluminum remain another major unresolved issue. Canada is seeking relief from US tariffs, but the Trump administration has reportedly shown little willingness to compromise on the 50% steel tariffs, with US Trade Representative Greer arguing that the measures are benefiting domestic steel production.As mentioned earlier, it wouldn't be the first time that Trump postpones or signs a deal at the last minute, and this is exactly what might be happening here. The Canadian dollar jumped after the Politico's report and the gains could extend further if trade tensions de-escalate in the next hours.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The outlook for a last-minute US-Canada trade agreement is getting a bit bleaker, with US officials reportedly downplaying hopes of a deal ahead of Tuesday’s tariff deadline. US President Trump and Canadian PM Carney are nevertheless expected to speak again ahead of the midnight deadline.The latest development follows Monday’s direct call between Trump and Carney. While Canadian officials have described negotiations as intense and delicate, the White House has reportedly indicated that no breakthrough has yet been reached that would justify delaying the planned tariffs.As a reminder, the US is scheduled to impose 50% tariffs on around $20 billion of Canadian imports at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, making the coming hours critical for Canada, the loonie and the Bank of Canada.The Trump-Carney conversation keeps the possibility of a last-minute agreement alive, but the more cautious tone from Washington suggests that markets should be ready for US tariffs to go into effect, although it wouldn't be the first time that Trump postpones or signs a deal at the last minute. The Canadian dollar will remain highly sensitive to any headlines from the negotiations.If there's a breakthrough or the tariffs get delayed, expect the Canadian dollar to rally in the short-term. If the negotiations fail, on the other hand, the loonie will likely extend the losses against the US dollar in the coming days, unless a surprising US-Iran deal weighs on the greenback.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full report hereCanadian and US negotiators are expected to meet again as both sides make a final push to reach an agreement before US’s midnight tariff deadline, according to CBC News. The latest development adds some hope that diplomacy remains active, but it comes against a backdrop of considerable uncertainty. Earlier in the session, FOX Business White House correspondent Edward Lawrence reported that a White House official said Trump and Carney had discussed the planned retaliatory tariffs but failed to reach a resolution that would prompt the president to delay them.That report weighed on the Canadian dollar, as markets interpreted the lack of a breakthrough as a sign that the tariffs were still likely to take effect. The latest news suggests that it might not be over yet. Canadian trade officials have been in Washington negotiating with US representatives, while several key issues remain unresolved, including US tariffs on Canadian vehicles and broader disputes over market access. The US is threatening to impose 50% tariffs on around $20 billion of Canadian imports, with the measures scheduled to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday. The tariffs would apply to goods that had previously benefited from preferential treatment under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. If there's a genuine last-minute breakthrough or even a postponement, the CAD could rally in the short-term. If talks fail, on the other hand, we can expect the loonie to extend losses in the coming days, unless a surprising US-Iran deal weighs on the US dollar.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full report hereBusiness executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland expect consumer price inflation to ease slightly over the coming year, while wage growth and employment conditions are expected to remain broadly stable.Executives now anticipate CPI inflation of 3.3% over the next year, down from 3.7% in the second quarter. The decline suggests that businesses are seeing somewhat less persistent inflation pressure, although expected inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.Expectations for the labor market have changed little. Wage growth is projected at 2.8% over the coming year, only slightly below the 2.9% level recorded in last year’s survey. Businesses also expect relatively little change in employment levels, pointing to a labor market that remains stable rather than undergoing a significant acceleration or deterioration.A more notable shift is visible in research and development spending. Executives expect R&D expenditures to grow just 2.0% over the coming year, down sharply from the 3.1% expectation in last year’s survey. The slowdown in anticipated investment could indicate greater caution among businesses as they assess economic conditions and financing costs.Inflation expectations are moving in the right direction, while wage and employment expectations remain relatively stable. However, the significant decline in expected R&D spending suggests that businesses may be becoming more cautious about future investment amid the US-Iran war, AI bubble concerns and Federal Reserve tightening bias.For background, the Cleveland Fed Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a large quarterly representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors that was created to measure inflation expectations of chief executive officers (CEOs) in the United States. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full report hereThe Pentagon is evaluating whether the damage inflicted on US military facilities during the Iran war should lead to a fundamental restructuring of America’s military presence in the Middle East. While no formal review has been ordered by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, officials say the Pentagon’s policy office, Joint Staff and US Central Command are examining options that could eventually influence decisions on rebuilding damaged bases.One of the main questions is whether the US should reduce its troop presence in the Persian Gulf, where major facilities have come under repeated Iranian missile and drone attacks. The US normally maintains around 40,000 troops across nearly 20 sites stretching from Jordan to Oman, with some of its largest and most permanent bases located in the Gulf.The war has exposed the vulnerability of these facilities. More than 200 US military sites have reportedly been damaged or destroyed, while six American service members were killed in a March strike on a military facility in Kuwait. The Pentagon has also used more than 1,000 advanced air-defense interceptors, putting additional pressure on already limited missile stocks.Rather than simply rebuilding the existing bases, officials are considering whether US forces should be relocated further west, potentially toward Jordan, Israel or Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. Such a move could reduce exposure to Iranian attacks, although Iran has demonstrated the ability to strike targets well beyond the Persian Gulf.Any reduction in the US military footprint would also have significant implications for Washington’s Gulf allies. Countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE have relied heavily on the US security presence for decades. A smaller American deployment could force these states to accelerate investment in their own military capabilities or seek additional security partnerships.The debate also reflects a broader strategic divide within the Trump administration. One camp favors maintaining a strong US military presence and continuing security commitments in the region, while others argue that Washington should reduce overseas commitments and redirect resources toward the US homeland and the challenge posed by China.The financial cost of the war is another consideration. The Pentagon estimates that the conflict will cost approximately $37.5 billion through the end of September, excluding the potentially substantial cost of rebuilding damaged bases. One estimate has placed the cost of repairing targeted facilities at around $5 billion.For now, officials stress that any permanent restructuring remains a long way off and would require approval from senior administration officials. Nevertheless, the conflict has created an unusual opportunity for the Pentagon to reconsider a military posture that has remained largely unchanged for decades.Notably, one of Iran's requests has been less US military presence in the Gulf, so this might be some kind of concession in behind-the-scenes negotiations. Time will tell. Iran has certainly demonstrated that it does hold the cards to pressure the US and it won't back down easily. UPDATE:A US official told Al Jazeera that the US held positive discussions with Iran, but Trump decided to wait. This kind of confirms that there are indeed behind-the-scenes negotiations going on, despite Trump claiming otherwise. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The Canadian dollar weakened following a tweet from FOX Business White House correspondent Edward Lawrencethat President Donald Trump spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney about additional tariffs Washington is preparing to impose on Canada.According to Lawrence, a White House official confirmed that Trump and Carney spoke last night, with the discussion focused on the retaliatory tariffs planned by the US administration. The official reportedly said that the conversation produced no resolution that would prompt Trump to delay the measures, which are scheduled to take effect at 12:01 a.m. on August 19.The report added to concerns that the two countries remain unable to reach an agreement ahead of the deadline. Markets had been watching the latest discussions for signs that the tariff measures could be postponed or softened, making the absence of a breakthrough particularly relevant for the Canadian dollar and the Bank of Canada.The tariff threat is particularly significant because the measures announced by Washington include 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian goods, with the new duties scheduled to take effect on August 19. Tariff concerns also led traders to reduce expectations for Bank of Canada rate hikes, adding another source of pressure on CAD.The key question is now whether last-minute negotiations can produce a deal before the deadline. A postponement or agreement could provide relief for the Canadian dollar, while the implementation of the tariffs without a compromise would likely keep trade uncertainty elevated. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full report hereThe Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model lowered its estimate for US real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2026 to 4.03%, down from 4.31% on August 14.Despite the downgrade, the latest estimate still points to a strong pace of economic expansion, although we still have a long way till the Q3 advance GDP report in October. The main change came from the model’s estimate for real gross private domestic investment, with annualized growth now expected at 13.7%, down from the previous estimate of 15.2%. This weaker investment outlook was the key factor behind the overall GDPNow revision. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMPThis is not really a news as the US-Iran talks have been in a deadlock for a couple of weeks, despite some initial optimism. Following Trump's post, oil prices spiked to the upside, while equities got back under renewed pressure. The moves were quickly faded, though, given that the situation remains pretty much the same. Overall, the two main stories moving the markets at the moment are the US-Iran stalemate and the Fed tightening risk. The former is keeping inflation risks skewed to the upside and limiting the downside in oil prices. The latter is providing some minor easing in financial conditions as rate hike bets get pushed back amid "benign" core inflation data.Chart: WTI crude oil (blue) vs US 5-year breakeven rate (red)Since the Fed adopted a tightening bias in June, inflation breakeven rates have remained relatively stable despite another spike in oil prices. This is good news for the Fed as it could be a confirmation that Warsh's limited forward guidance and hawkish bias of the FOMC is contributing to limit the shock from the US-Iran war. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.3% Industrial production y/y +1.1% vs +1.1% priorCapacity utilization 76.3% vs 76.3% expectedPrior was 76.1% (revised to 76.2%)Manufacturing output +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedPrior output 0.0% (revised to +0.3%)US industrial activity continued to expand in July. Industrial production increased 0.2% m/m, following a 0.3% rise in June. Manufacturing production also grew 0.2%, while mining output increased 0.2% and utilities advanced 0.5%.Within manufacturing, output excluding motor vehicles and parts rose 0.4%, suggesting that the underlying manufacturing sector performed somewhat better than the headline figure indicates.Total industrial production stood at 103.0% of its 2017 average, leaving output 1.1% above its level a year earlier. This points to a gradual improvement in industrial activity, which has already been signalled by the rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator for industrial production.Meanwhile, capacity utilization edged up to 76.3%, although it remains 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 long-run average. Overall, the July data points to steady but modest growth in US industrial activity. Manufacturing remains positive, while the low level of capacity utilization suggests that the sector still has considerable room to expand before facing significant capacity constraints.Chart: ISM Manufacturing PMI (blue) vs Industrial Production Y/Y (red) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

At the end of July and the beginning of August, Japan and the U.S. conducted a rare, joint currency intervention to support the yen, spending around $89 billion and $5-$10 billion, respectively. Initially, the yen strengthened from 164 to 156 against the dollar, but two weeks later, USD/JPY is back near 160. Why? Because it did nothing to fix the underlying problems, including the huge rate gap between the U.S. and Japan, which keeps the carry trade attractive as investors borrow yen to buy, for example, higher-yielding U.S.assets. But hasn’t U.S. inflation started to cool, so the Fed might turn more dovish? Indeed, July CPI eased to 3.4% year over year from 3.5% in June. Core CPI fell to 2.5% from 2.6%. PPI also came in below expectations, flat month over month versus +0.2% expected, while annual growth dropped to 4.7% from 5.5%.The problem is that oil prices remain elevated: gasoline is still above $4 a gallon, up more than 30% since the U.S. and Israel launched the war, raising the risk of another inflation wave. Also, trade wars are back, with the U.S. set to impose 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods on Wednesday. Commercial ties with India and China could also worsen if Washington introduces tougher sanctions on Iran’s trading partners. Thus, the Fed still has plenty of reasons to stay hawkish, even as markets bet on a softer path, with the probability of no policy change this year around 55%. What if the Fed raises rates?The Bank of Japan may have no choice but to tighten as well. As for the chances of the BOJ doing so without the Fed, this week’s July inflation data will be crucial, with strong numbers potentially pushing JGB yields higher and giving the yen some support. Now, if even tighter monetary policy fails to stop the yen’s slide, which is already hurting households as Japan relies heavily on imported energy, the BOJ could be forced to sell Treasuries to raise cash and support the currency.And markets seem to be pricing in this risk, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5.216% at auction, its highest since 2001.The takeaway is that if Japan starts selling U.S. Treasuries, market volatility could rise sharply, something most investors don’t expect yet. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Prior import prices +0.3% (revised to -0.3%)Export prices -1.3% vs +0.2% expectedPrior export prices -0.6% (revised to -0.7%)US import prices continued to decline in July, falling 0.4% m/m after a 0.3% drop in June. The decline was driven primarily by lower fuel import prices, which more than offset an increase in prices for nonfuel imports.July’s decline was the largest monthly drop in import prices since May 2025, when the index fell 0.5%. Despite the recent monthly declines, import prices remained elevated on an annual basis, rising 5.9% from July 2025 to July 2026.The latest data suggest that falling energy costs are beginning to provide some relief to import price pressures, although the strong y/y increase indicates that imported goods remain significantly more expensive than a year ago.Meanwhile, US export prices fell 1.3% in July, following a 0.7% decline in June. The sharper decline in export prices points to a broader easing in price pressures across international trade.Lower import prices, particularly for fuel, could reduce some cost pressures for US consumers and businesses, but the sizable annual increase in import prices shows that underlying external price pressures remain elevated. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was 1.427m (revised to 1.415m)Building permits 1.443m vs 1.370m expectedPrior was 1.374m US housing data for July was mixed, with building permits strengthening while housing starts and completions declined sharply. The divergence suggests that planned construction remains relatively good, but actual building activity weakened during the month.Building permits rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.443 million, up 5.0% from June and 3.1% from July 2025. Single-family permits increased 2.5% m/m to 894,000, while permits for buildings with five units or more reached 490,000.However, housing starts fell significantly. Starts dropped to an annualized rate of 1.239 million, down 12.4% from June and 13.5% y/y. Single-family starts declined 9.9% from June to 808,000, while starts in buildings with five or more units stood at 421,000.Housing completions also weakened, falling to an annualized rate of 1.212 million, down 9.1% m/m and 16.8% from July 2025. Single-family completions declined 5.8% from June to 878,000.Permits provided a positive signal for future construction, while starts and completions showed a notable deterioration in current activity. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was 8.25KThere's been some softening in private jobs creation in summer but nothing that's been pointing to deterioration. Taken all the US jobs data together, the labour market picture remains stable. The NFP data was highly likely just a blip and the next report should be better. However, the softer NFP and CPI reports have led traders to pare back September Fed rate hike bets, with the probability now standing at just around 33%. For background on the data, initiated in late 2025, ADP releases the NER Pulse, an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These releases are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends. At the beginning of each month, ADP publishes the National Employment Report, which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.