"Houston, we have a problem...", SPCX rally loses upper-value acceptanceSpaceX stock, ticker SPCX, is still far above its IPO price, but the latest chart structure is no longer a clean bullish continuation. My current read is that SPCX has shifted into a post-IPO exhaustion and failed-repair setup, with sellers using the $208-$214 area aggressively and price now testing lower value around $193.50-$196.50.Key takeaways for SPCX stock holders (and some of you traders)Current bias: Bearish-leaning after failed upper-value acceptance.Blended tradable score: -3.5 / +10.Main resistance zone: $198.50-$202.60, then $208.50-$214.50.Main support zone: $193.50-$196.50, then $190-$187.Practical read: I would not chase a short directly into the lows. The cleaner setup is a failed bounce into resistance.On my -10 to +10 scale, -3.5 means a moderate bearish edge. It is not an extreme bearish signal, but it does show that sellers currently have more evidence on their side unless buyers reclaim the key repair zones.As I was reading that brokers like FxPro and Exness have introduced SpaceX CFDs and heard a guy on social media that was cheering to short that baby, I said, ok, it's time for me to deep dive into the new darling. So I did. As we know, the IPO itself was wonderful for the bulls, not to mention for Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and many others.What changed after the SpaceX IPO rally?The first stage of SPCX trading was genuinely bullish. From the IPO opening area near $150, SpaceX stock pushed as high as $225.64, a very large early extension for a newly listed mega-cap stock.That matters because this is not a washed-out stock. It is still a highly extended post-IPO name that is now testing whether the first euphoric value zone is being rejected.What stands out to me is the shift in behavior after the rally. Earlier, buyers accepted higher prices. Later, sellers started using the upper zone more aggressively. That is often where a hot IPO changes from “strong momentum” into “extension risk.”In my 1-hour chart of SPCX, the aggressive post-IPO impulse wave peaked at 225.64, and the market is currently consolidating that massive move inside a clean descending corrective channel. We are currently trading around 195.20, compressing right around the median lines of my pitchfork as the market digests the news of the $60B Anysphere acquisition.Here is how my technical tools are framing this structure:The 20 EMA: During the initial impulse move up from the 135 low, the 20 EMA acted as a clean dynamic support layer. However, once price broke below it on the 17th, the slope flattened, and the 20 EMA has transitioned into short-term overhead dynamic resistance, capping the recent intraday bounce attempts.The Modified Schiff Pitchfork: I applied the modified Schiff pitchfork to map the boundaries of this corrective swing. The price is currently respecting the upper half of the pitchfork geometry, grinding lower along the internal median lines. A clean hourly close back above the 20 EMA and the upper pitchfork parallel line would signal a structural breakout of this flag.Educational Insight: Standard vs. Modified Schiff PitchforkWhen an asset experiences a hyper-impulsive move followed by a sharp, shallow retracement, a standard Andrews Pitchfork is often far too steep to capture the true boundaries of the ensuing consolidation.The Modified Schiff Pitchfork solves this by shifting the original anchor point (Point A) by half the vertical distance and half the horizontal distance toward the first swing high (Point B). This creates a flatter, more realistic angle of orientation that is uniquely suited for mapping out post-impulse flag or pennant consolidations without the lines becoming too vertical to be useful.According to the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level II curriculum on geometric chart patterns, modifying the pitchfork’s origin point alters the slope to match the velocity of the corrective phase, making it highly effective for identifying hidden support and resistance lines during a grinding counter-trend regime. at investingLive.com, I also use that for channels and found those quite effective.What does the 4-hour SPCX chart show at the end of 18 June, 2026?The 4h structure shows a clear transition from launch demand into failed upper-value acceptance.The key 4h message is simple: SPCX accepted higher prices first, but then rejected the $208-$214+ value zone. That makes the current bounce a repair attempt, not yet a confirmed bullish reset.What does the 1-hour SPCX chart show now?The most important 1h event was the rejection bar near the upper failed-repair zone.SPCX traded into the $207.50-$213.80 area, built volume near the highs, and then closed much lower. That is usually not healthy action. It suggests that sellers were willing to hit bids after price revisited the old upper zone.The next move lower brought price toward $187.01, where buyers did defend the first flush. That defense matters. It prevents the read from becoming a clean breakdown call.But the bounce is still not strong enough to call a bullish reset.The latest 1h repair remains below:$198.50-$200.40, the first tactical repair zone.$202.50-$202.60, the first meaningful reclaim shelf.$208.50-$214.50, the major failed upper-value zone.What this means: buyers have stabilized the stock, but they have not yet taken back control.Why this weakness looks SPCX-specific, not only Nasdaq-drivenNasdaq weakness can amplify the move, but the SPCX decline looks more specific than just broad market beta.The relative comparison matters because a new IPO can fall for different reasons:The whole market may be weak.Retail enthusiasm may cool.Early buyers may take profits.Late buyers may get trapped near the first euphoric highs.Institutions may wait for lower prices before stepping in.In this case, SPCX underperformed both the broader Nasdaq futures context and the space-themed benchmark comparison in the supplied data. That makes me less willing to dismiss the move as just a normal market pullback.What are the key SpaceX stock levels to watch?tradeCompass map for SPCX stock tradersThe cleanest bearish setup is not a panic short into $190-$187. It is a failed bounce into $198.50-$202.60, especially if sellers reappear and price fails back below $198.50.The cleaner bullish case requires more proof. A bounce from $187 is useful, but a bullish reset needs acceptance above $202.60, and stronger confirmation above $208.50.What would change my mind on SPCX?I would upgrade SPCX from bearish-leaning to more neutral if price accepts above $202.60 and holds that area on pullbacks.I would upgrade it to a tactical bullish repair if price accepts above $208.50 with stronger buy-side participation and higher POC migration. A wick above that level is not enough. I would want to see the market actually spend time above the level and defend it.I would turn more bearish if $187 breaks and then becomes resistance from below. That would suggest the first lower-zone defense failed.How to know if this SpaceX stock analysis is still validThis analysis is most useful while SPCX is still trading around the levels in the map.If price is still between $193.50 and $202.60, the stock remains in the decision zone. In that area, traders should be careful with chasing because both failed breakdowns and failed bounces are possible.If SPCX has already accepted above $208.50, this article should no longer be treated as bearish. It would mean buyers have repaired the failed upper-value zone.If SPCX has broken below $187 and is holding below it, the bearish scenario has already moved to the next stage, and traders should avoid treating the original short setup as fresh.Practical decision support viewMy current classification is:SPCX is tradeable with confirmation, but bearish-leaning after a failed upper-value repair.The stock is not a clean breakdown because $187 held on the first flush and the latest 1h bars show some stabilization.But it is also not a clean long because price is still below the important reclaim area at $198.50-$202.60, and far below the major failed upper-value zone at $208.50-$214.50.My preferred playbook:Do not chase short directly into $190-$187 unless $187 breaks and retests from below.Watch for a failed bounce into $198.50-$202.60 for the cleaner short setup.Upgrade to neutral if SPCX reclaims and accepts above $202.60.Upgrade to bullish tactical repair only if SPCX accepts above $208.50 with stronger order flow and higher POC migration.For now, the better read is short bias on failed repair, not blind short-at-low.FAQIs SpaceX stock bullish or bearish after the IPO?SPCX is bearish-leaning in the current technical read because it failed to hold the upper post-IPO value zone near $208-$214. However, it is not a clean breakdown unless $187 fails and price accepts lower.What is the most important SPCX resistance level?The first important resistance zone is $198.50-$202.60. A stronger bullish repair would require acceptance above $208.50.What is the most important SPCX support level?The first major support area is $190-$187. If $187 fails and turns into resistance, the next downside magnets are $178.50-$176.50 and $172.50-$169.50.Is SPCX a buy after the pullback?I would not frame SPCX as an automatic buy after the pullback. The bullish case improves only if price reclaims $202.60, and becomes more convincing if it accepts above $208.50 with stronger order flow. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Japan's acute dependence on Middle East crude, with 94% of imports sourced from the region and 93% of those moving through Hormuz, means any delay in strait normalisation will weigh heavily on Asian refining margins and petrochemical feedstock costs. Naphtha tightness is a particular pressure point given its role across plastics and auto components supply chains. The survey's findings suggest Japanese end-users will continue drawing on alternative sources and national reserves well into the second half of 2026, sustaining elevated spot premiums for non-Middle Eastern crude grades. The minesweeping caveat is a reminder that physical reopening of the strait is a longer and more complex process than a diplomatic agreement alone can resolve.--- Nearly half of Japanese firms expect more than six months to return to normal operations after a ceasefire, with almost all worried about oil procurement despite government assurances, a Reuters survey shows. Summary: Source: Reuters survey conducted by Nikkei Research, 3-12 June 2026, 215 respondents from 490 companies contactedNearly half of respondents expect business operations to take more than six months to normalise after a ceasefireBreakdown: 17% said three months, 31% said six months, 39% said one year, 8% said three yearsJapan sourced 94% of crude oil from the Middle East last year, with 93% of those shipments transiting HormuzAlmost all firms are worried about oil and oil products procurement; 27% deeply worried, 69% somewhat worriedNaphtha supply constraints flagged as a key pressure point for petrochemical and manufacturing supply chainsSurvey was conducted before the US-Iran interim agreement was announced Nearly half of Japanese companies expect it will take more than six months for business operations to return to normal following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, underscoring the depth of the supply shock still facing the world's fourth-largest economy even as a peace framework takes shape.A Reuters survey conducted by Nikkei Research between June 3 and 12, before the US-Iran interim agreement was announced, found almost all Japanese firms remain worried about procurement of oil and oil products despite government assurances that national supply is being secured. Of 215 companies that responded, 39% said recovery would take up to a year and 8% put it at three years.Japan's vulnerability is structural. The country sourced 94% of its crude oil from the Middle East last year, with 93% of those shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the war began on February 28, Japan has been drawing down national oil reserves and scrambling for alternative supply sources.Naphtha emerged as a particular concern. The petrochemical feedstock, used in everything from plastic bags to automobile components, is in constrained supply, with one rubber manufacturer noting it could only secure two months of firm commitments. A wholesaler flagged that minesweeping alone would take time, adding a physical dimension to the reopening timeline that diplomatic agreements cannot shortcut.The survey's risk-averse tone likely reflects conditions before the ceasefire framework was announced, but the structural exposures it captures remain unchanged. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman's base case of Brent at $80 by year-end and $75 in 2027 suggests limited further downside from current levels, with the bank arguing the market has largely priced the recovery already. The asymmetry in the risk scenarios is the key trading signal: $50 of upside in the slow-recovery scenario against only $20 of downside if flows normalise faster than expected. Low inventories and a persistent disruption risk premium provide a floor. Demand recovery is expected to be swift but not complete, with EV penetration in China keeping a structural drag of around half a million barrels per day on the demand baseline into 2027.--- Goldman Sachs sees Brent averaging $80 at year-end and $75 in 2027, with risk skewed to the upside as low inventories and Hormuz uncertainty sustain a disruption premium even in the base case. Summary:Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research in a podcast, recorded 16 June 2026Brent has fallen from above $120 to the low $80s as markets price in a base-case recovery of Middle East supply by end of JulyStrait flows need to recover to roughly 70% of normal for regional exports to fully normaliseGoldman forecasts Brent at $80 and WTI at $74 by year-end, moving to $75 and $70 respectively in 2027Upside scenario: if Hormuz never fully reopens and Gulf exports recover only gradually, Brent could exceed $130 by year-endDownside scenario: faster reopening and persistent demand losses could push Brent to $60 in 2027China's 4-5 million barrel per day drop in crude imports is cited as the primary reason oil has not breached triple digitsAround 90% of the 5 million bpd demand loss is expected to recover by 2027, but EV growth leaves a residual half-million bpd structural drag Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average $80 per barrel by year-end and $75 in 2027, with its commodities research team arguing that markets have largely priced in the base-case recovery of Middle Eastern supply but that risks remain skewed to the upside.Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, said the selloff from above $120 to the low $80s reflected market confidence that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will begin recovering and that regional exports will return to normal levels by the end of July. For that to happen, strait transit volumes need to reach roughly 70% of pre-conflict levels, with pipeline rerouting having absorbed much of the remainder.Struyven framed the key uncertainty as one of Iranian intent rather than logistics. If Tehran allows flows to increase and early transits proceed without incident, other shippers are likely to follow. But he noted the market has seen false starts before.The risk distribution is notably asymmetric. A slow-recovery scenario in which the strait never fully reopens puts Brent above $130 by year-end. A faster-than-expected reopening combined with more persistent demand losses could push prices to $60 in 2027. Struyven judged both scenarios as roughly equal in probability but stressed the upside move is far larger in magnitude.Even in the base case, a structural premium remains. Inventories are depleted, the conflict has permanently altered some demand patterns, and Goldman sees oil prices running roughly $20 per barrel above pre-war levels on a sustained basis. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately. New Zealand GDP Q1 206:1.5% y/yexpected 1.1%, prior 1.3%0.8% q/qexpected 0.9%, prior 0.2%Background here:Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, June 18, 2026: New Zealand Q1 GDP preview This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei says Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments.Earlier:Iran-US MOU signed but Baghaei fires warning on missiles, uranium and Hormuz feesAdds:60-day period starts now This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The MOU signing removes the immediate tail risk of conflict escalation but the hawkish caveats from Baghaei will caution on further meaningful risk-off unwind in oil. A formalised Hormuz transit fee regime introduces a structural cost floor for tanker operators and crude importers that will not disappear with the peace deal. Iran's refusal to export nuclear materials or discuss missile capabilities signals the agreement is narrower than hawks in Washington will accept, keeping geopolitical risk premium alive. Markets will likely read the signing as modestly constructive but Baghaei's tone as a reminder that the harder negotiations are still ahead.--- Iran and the US have signed the MOU text electronically, but Tehran immediately ruled out missile negotiations, nuclear material exports and Hormuz fee waivers, keeping oil risk premium firmly in play. Summary:The Iran-US MOU text has been officially signed electronically by both presidentsFriday's Geneva meeting was not intended as a signing ceremony; negotiating teams remain in placeBaghaei ruled out any discussion of Iran's missile or defensive capabilities in any process or with any partyIran's nuclear materials will not be sent outside the country; the option on enriched uranium is dilutionFees will be charged for services to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz The Iran-US memorandum of understanding has been officially signed, with foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirming both presidents put their names to the electronic document. Baghaei, Iran's chief public voice on the negotiations and a senior diplomat who has led much of Tehran's external messaging through the peace process, wasted little time in drawing the limits of what the agreement actually covers.On missiles, his language was blunt to the point of theatrical. Iran's defensive capabilities will not be discussed in any process or with any party. The missiles, he said, are only meant to be fired, not negotiated. The comments land as a direct signal to Washington that any attempt to extend the MOU into weapons territory will be rejected outright.On nuclear material, Baghaei was equally firm. Enriched uranium will not be leaving Iranian soil. The option Tehran is prepared to consider is dilution, not export, a position likely to draw scrutiny from US lawmakers already sceptical of the deal's architecture.On Hormuz, the position confirmed earlier by chief negotiator Qalibaf was reinforced: ships will pay for the services they receive transiting the strait. The framing is deliberately procedural, but the commercial and geopolitical implications are significant for global energy flows.The Geneva meeting planned for Friday was described as not intended for signing purposes, with a decision on whether it proceeds expected within hours. Negotiating teams remain in place. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran says the plan for negotiating teams to meet in Geneva remains in place, but MoU was signed digitally.Will be no signing ceremony in Switzerland.Earlier:Iran signals permanent Hormuz changes as $300bn reconstruction deal confirmed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The hawkish tilt in the dot plot, with the median 2026 funds rate projection rising to 3.8% from 3.4%, pushed short-term yields higher and weighed on equities as markets repriced the likelihood of a hike as early as October. The stripping of forward guidance removes a key anchor that markets had used to price the easing path, introducing greater uncertainty into rate-sensitive assets. The inflation upgrade, with headline PCE now seen at 3.6% for 2026 versus 2.7% in March, reinforces the case that the Fed is in no hurry to ease and may yet tighten. The balance sheet remains unchanged for now, but Warsh's task force on that front suggests it is a live issue. Any communication overhaul, including a potential scrapping of the dot plot, would further complicate forward pricing of Fed policy.--- The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% but Chair Warsh overhauled the policy statement, removed forward guidance, skipped the dot plot, and launched task forces to reshape major Fed operations.Summary: Sources: FOMC statement, Fed Chair Warsh press conference, 17 June 2026FOMC voted unanimously to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%Policy statement cut from 341 words to 130, dropping all forward guidance and easing bias languageDot plot median for end-2026 moved to 3.8% from 3.4%, signalling at least one hike is live; nine of 18 participants pencilled in a hike this yearWarsh declined to submit his own dot, citing concerns about the tool's usefulness, and flagged a broader review of Fed communicationsFive task forces announced to examine communications, balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and the inflation frameworkOfficials raised the 2026 headline inflation forecast to 3.6% and core to 3.3%, both up sharply from 2.7% in March Kevin Warsh's first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Fed chair delivered no surprise on rates but marked a sharp break from the communication style and institutional habits of his predecessor.The FOMC voted unanimously on Wednesday to hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, where it has sat since a series of cuts in late 2025. The decision itself was fully priced by markets. What was not fully priced was the extent to which Warsh would move immediately to reshape how the Fed speaks, projects and presents itself.The post-meeting statement checked in at around 130 words, less than half the length of the April release and stripped of the forward guidance language that had become a fixture under Jerome Powell. Gone was the committee's stated openness to adjusting policy in either direction. In its place, a spare summary of economic conditions and a blunt commitment to deliver price stability. Warsh had long argued the Fed overcommunicates and entangles itself in markets. Wednesday's statement was the first concrete expression of that view in policy form.The dot plot told a similarly hawkish story. The median projection for the federal funds rate at year-end rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine of 18 participating members seeing at least one hike in 2026. Warsh himself did not submit a projection, confirming at the press conference that he regards the tool as unhelpful in the conduct of policy and signalling it could be scrapped as part of a broader communications review.Officials also revised their economic projections in a direction that offers little comfort to those expecting cuts. The headline inflation forecast for 2026 was lifted to 3.6% and the core measure to 3.3%, against 2.7% for both in March, reflecting the persistent energy price pressures flowing from the Middle East conflict. GDP growth was trimmed slightly to 2.2% and unemployment to 4.3%.Warsh announced five task forces to examine the Fed's communications framework, its balance sheet, data sourcing, the productivity and employment outlook, and the inflation targeting framework. The scope of the review suggests a more thoroughgoing institutional overhaul is underway, one that markets will now need to navigate with fewer of the signposts they have relied on for the past decade. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand's March quarter GDP data is expected to show the economy gained solid momentum in the early months of 2026, even as the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February looms as a far larger threat to output in the quarters ahead.The median market forecast points to quarterly growth of 0.9%, up sharply from the 0.2% expansion recorded in the December quarter. On an annual basis, growth is seen slipping to 1.1% from 1.3% as a strong March quarter result a year earlier creates a high base. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had pencilled in 1.0% quarterly growth in its May Monetary Policy Statement, a level matched by both ANZ and Westpac in their updated forecasts, while BNZ sits marginally below at 0.9%, ASB at 0.8% and Kiwibank at the low end with 0.7%. Economists broadly agree the figures will capture a period of genuine recovery rather than the disruption to come. Manufacturing is expected to be among the strongest contributors, with food production supported by high milk collections, a rebound in fruit and wine output, and strong machinery activity. Wholesale trade, professional services, retail and tourism are also tipped to have added meaningfully to headline growth. Construction is the notable drag, with residential and non-residential building work falling around 3.5% in the quarter.A key caveat running through most forecasts is the distorting effect of seasonal adjustments. Westpac estimates that the methodology used by Statistics NZ inflates March quarter results by around 0.4 percentage points, meaning underlying growth is likely closer to 0.6%.The more consequential question is what comes next. The Iran conflict, which intensified through late February and March, is expected to register far more heavily in June quarter data, with at least one major bank forecasting a 0.3% contraction in Q2. The March print, however strong, is broadly being read as the starting position for a much harder period ahead.The result is also the only significant data point before the RBNZ's 8 July OCR review. The bank left the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% in May following a 3-3 committee vote, and has signalled that a tightening cycle is approaching. A significant upside or downside surprise could influence the balance of voting, though several economists suggest the committee is more focused on forward-looking inflation indicators than backward-looking activity data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The confirmation that Hormuz will not revert to pre-war conditions introduces a structural premium into crude pricing that markets will need to reprice on a semi-permanent basis. A tolling regime on the world's most critical oil chokepoint, even one framed within international law, adds a new and unpredictable cost layer for tanker operators and crude importers alike. The $300bn investment commitment signals the peace framework is substantive rather than cosmetic, which may provide modest near-term relief on supply disruption risk, but the Hormuz transit fee signal is the more market-sensitive development and will keep a floor under oil.--- Iran's chief negotiator says Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions and Tehran will charge for strait transit services, as a $300bn investment deal is confirmed under the peace MOU. Summary:Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, though Iran says this does not mean acting against international law or maritime navigationIran intends to charge for transit services through the straitA $300bn investment allocation has been confirmed under the peace MOU, part of which is earmarked for reconstruction Iran's top negotiator has declared the Strait of Hormuz will never return to the conditions that prevailed before the conflict, while confirming Tehran intends to levy charges on vessels transiting the world's most critical oil shipping lane.Qalibaf, speaking via Iranian state media, framed the changes as a sovereign exercise rather than a violation of international norms, saying the new arrangements would not act against international law or impede maritime navigation. The distinction is unlikely to fully reassure energy markets, which have spent months pricing in the risk of prolonged disruption to the roughly 20% of global oil supply that moves through the strait.The remarks came alongside confirmation that $300 billion has been allocated for investment in Iran under a memorandum of understanding, with a portion directed toward reconstruction.The transit fee signal is the more immediate market concern. Any formalised tolling mechanism on Hormuz would represent a structural shift in the cost of moving Gulf crude to global markets, with implications for tanker operators, refiners and end consumers across Asia and Europe. How those charges are structured, enforced and priced into freight rates remains to be seen, but the direction of travel is now explicit. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

All that campaigning for the Fed job with dovish-sounding rhetoric was quickly set aside at the first meeting of the Warsh era. As Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh struck a much more hawkish tone, emphasizing the need to bring inflation under control. The message was reinforced by a dot plot that pointed to a more restrictive policy path than many had expected.The result was a sharp move higher in Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Stocks reacted as anticipated, moving lower, although the declines remained relatively orderly rather than turning into a broad-based selloff.At the close:Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.97% S&P 500: -1.21% Nasdaq Composite: -1.34% Russell 2000: -0.72% From a technical perspective, the decline pushed the major indices below both their 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, tilting the near-term bias back in favor of the sellers.For the S&P 500, the 100-hour moving average is at 7488.34 and the 200-hour moving average is at 7462.77. The index closed at 7420.11, below both key levels.For the Nasdaq, the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages are converged near 26,335, while the index settled at 26,021.66, leaving it comfortably below both trend gauges.Going forward, buyers will need to push the indices back above their respective 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages to regain near-term control. Until that happens, the technical advantage remains with the sellers.Honestly, the stock market could have reacted much more negatively to the Fed's hawkish shift. The relatively measured decline suggests investors may be looking beyond today's tougher rhetoric and focusing on factors that could ultimately help the inflation outlook.One possibility is the sharp decline in oil prices, which reduces input costs across a wide range of industries and eases pressure on consumers. Another is the growing belief that a more hawkish Fed stance could discourage companies from continuing to push through price increases. Businesses often have an easier time raising prices when costs are rising and inflation expectations are elevated. However, if energy prices stabilize or move lower and inflation pressures begin to ease, that pricing power becomes more difficult to justify.Airfares will be one area to watch. Lower fuel costs typically work their way into airline economics, and if ticket prices fail to respond, expect increased scrutiny from both consumers and policymakers. With energy costs declining, the market may be betting that some of the inflation tailwinds that have supported higher prices across the economy begin to fade in the months ahead.For now, investors appear willing to give that possibility the benefit of the doubt, which may help explain why stocks sold off, but not aggressively, despite the Fed's more hawkish message. Now it may continue but for today, yes indices fell and the bullishness from lower oil prices is gone. However, it could have been worse. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair Warsh: We recognize that inflation has been running "well ahead" of 2%Warsh Q&A: I see no reason to revisit 2% inflation goal until we have deliveredFOMC June 2026 dot plot sees end of year target at 3.8% vs 3.4% in March 2026Trump on the Fed raising rates: It could happenThe full FOMC statement from the June 2026 meeting.Federal Reserve rate decision: No change to the Fed funds target, as expectedUS May advance retail sales +0.9% vs +0.5% expectedUS weekly EIA crude oil inventories -8263K vs -4566K expectedUS pending home sales for May 3.8% versus 0.8% expectedUS April business inventories +0.5% vs +0.5% expectedECB's Sleijpen: A repeat of 2022 inflation appears less likely but can't be excludedCanada new housing price index for May -0.3% versus -0.4% last monthMarkets:Gold down $90 to $4240US 10-year yields up 7 bps to 4.49%US 2-year yields up 17 bps to 4.22%USD leads, NZD and GBP lagS&P 500 down 1.4%This was not the Kevin Warsh that Trump nominated with marching orders to lower rates. Instead, he sounded like a guy utterly determined to get inflation down to 2%, even if it causes pain. The market was surprised and it started with the statement, which was curt and finished on a line about price stability. Initially, that could be dismissed as housekeeping but as the press conference went on, it became abundantly clear this was the 2010 hawkish version of Warsh, no the guy who campaigned for the job sounding like he was Stephen Miran. The market response was to buy the US dollar in a big way. It came in waves and ultimately sent the euro down more than 100 pips to 1.1495. The pound was hit even harder with a dive to 1.3280 from 1.3400. No currency was spared with moves in the neighborhood of 1% but JPY did show some respect for intervention with a much smaller 20 pip move to 160.66.I fear more could be coming as US 2-year yields rose 17 bps to 4.21%. Market pricing now sits on 40 bps of hikes this year from 21 bps before the FOMC and even the July meeting now looks like it's in play. There was hardly even a nod to the employment side of the mandate.Stock markets were slow to react to the moves in bonds but the selling picked up after the press conference and the market struggled from there with consumer discretionary lagging, including a 3.5% decline in Amazon and a 4.3% drop in Target shares. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is extending above the 2026 high at 160.717. The high price reached 160.79.Warsh came in and the tone of the Fed shifted with officials changed their favorite bird from a dove to a hawk. For the USDJPY the price is moving further away from the 160.00 level - a level that attracted the Bank of Japan and Japanese officials in the past. However, the market is having it hard to ignore the 2 year yield moving up 17 basis points to 4.22%. The September futures has a 65% chance of a hike now up from 32% before the decision.Looking at the daily chart, more momentum would have traders looking toward 2024 highs at 161.92 - if Japan will allow it. Support/close risk for traders is 160.44 and below that the 100/200 hour MAs near 160.25. If the price cannot get and stay below those MA, the sellers are not winning. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Market Reaction: Start of Press Conference vs. End of Press ConferenceThe overall takeaway is that the market interpreted Warsh and the Fed as more hawkish than expected, with the strongest reaction seen in the U.S. dollar and front-end Treasury yields. Stocks weakened modestly, while precious metals came under additional pressure.? StocksTakeaway The Dow deteriorated the most during the press conference. The Russell 2000 gave back most of its gains. The Nasdaq actually recovered slightly, suggesting technology shares held up relatively well despite rising yields. Overall equity reaction was negative but not disorderly. ? Foreign ExchangeTakeawayThe FX market delivered the clearest verdict:✅ Broad-based U.S. dollar buyingThe largest dollar gains came against: GBP EUR NZD CHF The market appears to have pushed back expectations for future Fed easing.? Treasury YieldsTakeaway The move was concentrated in the front end of the curve. The 2-year yield rose over 4 basis points, the strongest move on the board. The yield curve flattened as long-end yields barely moved. That is classic pricing for:"The Fed may stay restrictive longer."? Commodities & CryptoTakeaway Gold and silver extended losses as yields and the dollar moved higher. Bitcoin softened as well. Oil was largely unaffected by the Fed headlines. Bottom LineBiggest WinnersU.S. DollarShort-term Treasury yields Fed credibility on maintaining a restrictive stance Biggest LosersGoldSilver Dollar-sensitive currencies (EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD) Small-cap stocks Market InterpretationWarsh's comments reinforced the message from the dot plot that policymakers are not eager to cut rates anytime soon. The market responded by: Buying dollars Selling precious metals Pushing short-term yields higher Leaning modestly against equities The strongest signal came from the combination of a stronger dollar and higher 2-year yields, which is typically the clearest indication that traders came away viewing the Fed as more hawkish than they did at the start of the press conference. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Rate hikes "could happen"It's alright that the Fed held rates, whateverEvidently, it's not illegal to hike rates anymore. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Today's is the big debut for new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, as he wraps up a two-day meeting with the FOMC.The result is a foregone conclusion -- rates will stay in the 3.50-3.75% range. What's less certain is how the statement will read. In the last meeting, three voting members dissented regarding the language in the statement that suggested an easing bias, which is a reference to the "additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate" line.What I suspect is that Warsh will tear up the old statement completely in order to try to disassociate from that sticking point without introducing a new bias. The risk in that is the statement will read neutral, which the market might see as a hawkish shift.That will set the stage for Warsh's first press conference and that will be the real test. Warsh will repeatedly be asked about inflation and about his prior dovish stance. I think that's going to be a minefield unless he plays it very safe and says as little as possible.But there is a risk in that too, if Warsh doesn't sound like the same dove who Trump nominated, then the market could read into that as well. At the moment, the market is pricing in 21 bps of easing this year and a full rate hike by January 2027. For this press conference, I could see it going either way:1) Warsh makes a hawkish pivotThis could partly reflect +4% inflation and the risks around it, and partly that the Chair has to speak for the FOMC. In order to do this, he doesn't need to talk about hiking rates or even say that rate hikes could be necessary. Not being dovish could be good enough or even just recommitting to the Fed's mandate.2) Warsh remains the dove he was in confirmationI see this as a bigger risk because it would cause a repricing in rate hikes. He could make a powerful argument for cutting rates and the past week of oil price declines has given him some ammunition. I have a hard time seeing this as the view of the FOMC, particularly in light of recent strong employment data, but it's certainly a risk, and would be materially dollar negative.In short, he has to walk a tightrope here and I think the trade will be on any short-term missteps. It's best to track down as low-latency feed as possible and go with the headlines. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

G7 leaders are thrilled we made a deal. The last night was brutal. $200M of bombs were dropped.New leaders are smart and far less radicalizedDo not want to see economic catastropheThe stock market is more brilliant than all the people except meI blew up Soleimani.Do not want to bomb Iran againNetanyahu gets a little excited sometimes but has been a good partnerIran was going to take out the entire Middle East including Israel.We are not giving Iran any money.He is on a ramble....Rubio's eyes are glazing over. Stocks are higher with Dow up 0.42%, S&P 0.07% and Nasdaq +0.08%. FOMC ahead. Deal will be signed shortly, maybe Friday. We will most likely sign a deal.Sent copy of MOU to Isreal.Isreal could do a better job on HezbollahI feel very bad for Lebanon. Lebanon has been trashed.Technical discussion on nuclear stockpiles will begin immediatelyThey need investment because we did $1T to $1.5T of damage to them.I think this group is regime change. Maritime traffic in Strait of Hormuz has increased substantially. Working on a parallel effort with Gulf nations to address nonnuclear issues.Hopes peace agreement will be beginning of larger peace across middle east.Thinks Russia and Ukraine what to do something, they just don't know how. Russia is losing more soldiers than Ukraine.Q&AWill let Iran sell oil if they do things right.US not putting up money for Iran.Thanks for Putin and Xi for being neutral. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD has spent much of this week respecting well-defined technical boundaries, with both buyers and sellers reacting decisively at key levels.At the highs on Monday, the pair briefly pushed above its 100-day moving average, but each breakout attempt quickly failed as sellers stepped in and overwhelmed buying interest. On Tuesday, the price rotated lower but found support from buyers near the rising 100-hour moving average, helping to stabilize the decline. The subsequent rebound stalled ahead of the 100-day moving average, suggesting buyers had learned from Monday’s failed breakout attempts and were less willing to chase the move higher.That pattern repeated itself today. During the early European session, AUDUSD moved lower once again, only to find willing buyers against the rising 100-hour moving average. As a result, the pair remains trapped between a well-defined support zone below and key resistance above.On the downside, support is clustered between the 100-hour moving average at 0.70559, the 50% midpoint at 0.70549, and the 200-hour moving average at 0.70470. As long as the price remains above this support band, buyers retain the near-term technical advantage. It would take a break below 0.70559, 0.70549, and 0.70470 to shift control more firmly back to the sellers.On the topside, today's rebound has carried the pair back toward the 100-day moving average at 0.70836. However, the session high of 0.7073 remains about 10 pips shy of that key resistance level. For buyers to gain greater control, they need to break above and stay above 0.70836. A successful breakout would then target the next resistance zone between 0.7100 and 0.7113.For now, traders continue to focus on these nearby technical levels. The market has spent the week oscillating within a relatively tight range, but ranges rarely last forever. At some point, a breakout is likely to emerge, and when it does, traders will be looking for momentum to carry the pair in the direction of that break. Until then, patience and respect for the established boundaries remain the name of the gam This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It's not clear what was behind the quick jump in oil prices. There are some rumors about the MOU signing being remote and some other chatter but nothing particularly relevant. There are now multiple reports saying there is no change in Swiss talks or the schedule.The move is already fading. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tech stocks face mixed fortunes: Broadcom surges while Microsoft tumblesThe US stock market today presents a tapestry of mixed performances, with technology stocks at the center. Broadcom (AVGO) is leading the charge with an impressive momentum, while Microsoft (MSFT) contends with headwinds. This article delves into the currents and undercurrents shaping today’s market landscape.? Semiconductor Sector: Broadcom Leads GainsThe semiconductor sector is predominantly in the green, driven by notable performances from stocks such as AVGO, which surged by 5.31%. Meanwhile, AMD and Intel are also contributing to the sector's positive outlook with gains of 2.56% and 3.67%, respectively. These uptrends could be attributed to escalating demand for chips amidst global supply improvements.? Software Sector: Challenges for MicrosoftIn contrast, the software sector reveals a more somber picture with Microsoft dropping by 1.57%. The dip could be associated with investor concerns over competitive pressures and potential impacts from regulatory scrutiny. Despite the red flags here, sectors like cloud computing may still offer bright spots.? Financial Sector: A Reassuring ResilienceThe financial sector showcases a stable performance, spearheaded by JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) gaining 1.58% and 1.86% respectively. A healthy loan demand and strong earnings reports are driving these positive results.? Consumer Electronics: Steady ShowsApple (AAPL) edges up by 0.35%, indicating a relatively calm stance amidst investor caution. While the sector navigates supply chain challenges and macroeconomic threats, AAPL's performance indicates stability.? Communication Services: A Mixed BagThe communication services sector faces a mixed day with Google (GOOGL) and Meta suffering declines of 1.74% and 2.55% respectively. Investors seem wary of decreasing ad revenues amid increasing competition and privacy regulations.? Overall Market AnalysisThe broader market signals caution as diverse sectors pull in divergent directions, reflecting investor sentiment shaped by sector-specific conditions. Tech stocks exhibit volatility but are cushioned by areas of strategic growth, particularly in semiconductors. Financials demonstrate resilience, affected positively by economic factors, while consumer electronics and cyclicals ride a wave of cautious optimism.? Strategic RecommendationsFor investors, the market dynamics suggest a need for a balanced approach. Consider enhancing exposure to semiconductor stocks like AVGO for potential gains, while cautiously navigating around volatile stocks within the software sector like MSFT. Diversification remains crucial, with financials and consumer sectors offering stability and potential upside. Keep an eye on regulatory developments affecting major tech firms for calibrated investment decisions.Stay updated with real-time data and expert analyses at InvestingLive.com to navigate today's intricate market dynamics confidently. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.