The remarks follow the standard Japanese official playbook and are unlikely to move the yen in isolation. The notable addition was Kihara's explicit acknowledgement that a weak yen, while supportive of corporate profits, increases the burden on households, a framing that edges slightly toward the dovish side of the intervention debate by validating the domestic cost argument. However, without a specific level reference or an escalation in language, the statement carries no actionable threat. Markets will continue to treat Japanese FX rhetoric as noise until accompanied by Finance Ministry involvement or a coordinated BoJ signal. The yen's next meaningful catalyst is more likely to come from the Fed's data-driven path under Warsh or the next BoJ policy meeting than from cabinet secretary commentary.--- Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara said Tokyo is watching FX moves closely and stands ready to act, while noting the weak yen raises household burdens even as it supports corporate profits. Summary: Source: Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Kihara, remarks to media, 17 June 2026No comment on specific FX levelsAlways ready to take necessary action on forexWatching FX moves closelyWeak yen helps corporate profits but increases burden on householdsWill guide economic and fiscal policy as appropriate Japan's chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Kihara delivered the standard suite of FX caution remarks on Wednesday evening, declining to comment on specific currency levels while reaffirming Tokyo's readiness to act if necessary.The remarks contained no escalation in tone and no reference to a specific exchange rate threshold, leaving the yen effectively unmoved. Kihara's observation that a weak yen supports corporate profits while simultaneously increasing the burden on households was the most substantive element, a dual acknowledgement that has become more politically sensitive as domestic consumption remains under pressure from elevated energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict.The formulation stops well short of a direct intervention signal. Japanese authorities have historically reserved their strongest language for periods of sharp, one-sided moves, and the current round of weakness does not appear to have triggered the urgency that precedes actual market operations. The Finance Ministry, whose involvement typically marks a more serious escalation, was absent from Wednesday's commentary.With the Federal Reserve now operating without forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh, the yen's trajectory is increasingly hostage to US data outcomes rather than Japanese rhetoric. Until the BoJ signals its own next move or the dollar path clarifies, Tokyo's verbal interventions are likely to remain just that. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A price increase on the iPhone, the world's best-selling consumer electronics device, will draw immediate Washington scrutiny even though memory and storage carry a limited weighting in the CPI basket. Morgan Stanley's estimate of a 15% price bump across smartphones and PCs this year adds a sticky, goods-driven inflation impulse that complicates the Fed's already difficult read on whether current price pressures are transitory. Memory chip makers including Micron, SK Hynix and Kioxia are the direct beneficiaries, with shares already up 800% to 4,600% over the past year. Apple's willingness to deploy its balance sheet to secure supply, short of building its own factories, may provide some floor under its margins but is unlikely to match the three-to-five year prepayment deals AI hyperscalers are locking in.--- Apple CEO Tim Cook says price increases are unavoidable as AI demand has quadrupled memory chip costs, with Morgan Stanley estimating a 15% shortfall in consumer tech supply by 2027. Summary: Source: Tim Cook interview with The Wall Street Journal (gated)Cook told the WSJ price increases are unavoidable, describing the memory crunch as a hundred-year floodAI hyperscaler demand has quadrupled DRAM and NAND prices since last year; TechInsights expects further increases into 2027Morgan Stanley estimates memory wafers for consumer tech will fall 15% short of demand by 2027 as suppliers prioritise AIPassing costs through at current margins would add around $270 to the next iPhone Pro, per TechInsightsCook said Apple is willing to use its balance sheet to help increase supply but ruled out building its own memory factoriesMorgan Stanley forecasts a 15% price increase across smartphones and PCs in the US this year Apple will raise prices on its products as surging memory and storage costs make absorbing them unsustainable, Chief Executive Tim Cook has told The Wall Street Journal, warning the situation had become a hundred-year flood unlike anything he had seen in over four decades in the electronics supply chain.Demand from AI companies for high-bandwidth memory has quadrupled the cost of both DRAM and NAND chips since last year, squeezing consumer electronics makers who now compete for supply against hyperscalers signing three-to-five year prepayment agreements. Morgan Stanley estimates that memory wafers available for consumer technology will fall up to 15% short of demand by 2027 as chipmakers including Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron redirect capacity toward AI customers.TechInsights calculates that passing through current cost increases while maintaining Apple's profit margins would add around $270 to the price of the next iPhone Pro model. Apple's next major launch is expected in September with the iPhone 18 lineup, though price increases on Macs and iPads could come sooner.Cook said Apple is willing to deploy its balance sheet to help secure supply and called for all options to be examined, including a review of national security restrictions on Chinese memory suppliers. He ruled out building Apple's own memory factories.The broader impact extends well beyond Apple. Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Nintendo have already raised prices, and Morgan Stanley forecasts a 15% average price increase across smartphones and PCs in the US this year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on the process.Injects 248bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The divergence between a hold-all-year base case and a near-coin-flip December hike probability reflects the genuine uncertainty Warsh has introduced by removing forward guidance. Without a Fed-provided path, each inflation and payrolls print now carries more weight, and the range of analyst outcomes will widen further if energy prices remain volatile. The balance sheet task force ranking second in priority is a signal worth watching: any move toward accelerating quantitative tightening would tighten financial conditions independently of rate action and compound the impact of a December hike if one materialises. AI-driven capital expenditure as a sustaining force for US growth adds a structural dimension to the hawkish risk scenario that goes beyond the current energy shock. The net effect is a rates market that will remain sensitive and prone to repricing on every major data release through the second half of the year.Earlier:CITIC Securities sees Fed on hold all year as Warsh faces political & inflation crosswinds--- Analysts are divided on the Fed's next move after June's hold, with one assigning near 50% odds to a December hike and another warning that AI-led growth could prompt tightening next year. Summary:Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% at the June meeting; dot plot shifted hawkish with the mean projecting one hike this yearOne analyst maintains a hold through September, assigns roughly 50% probability to a December hike, and sees the possibility of two cumulative hikes by end of 2027A second analyst maintains a no-hike, no-cut call for 2026 but warns the risk of a hike in 2027 has risenBoth note Warsh's decision to strip forward guidance and simplify the statement, reducing direct Fed-market interventionFive task forces announced covering communications, balance sheet, data, productivity and labour, and the inflation framework; the balance sheet review ranked second, signalling quantitative tightening remains a live considerationSustained US growth driven by AI-led capital expenditure flagged as a potential trigger for future tightening Two securities firms have published diverging but broadly cautious assessments of the Federal Reserve's policy path following the June meeting, with one placing near-even odds on a December rate hike and the other holding a no-move call for 2026 while flagging rising hike risk into next year.Both analyses centre on the same set of facts. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected. Chair Kevin Warsh significantly simplified the post-meeting statement, removing forward guidance entirely and signalling that markets should price policy on incoming data rather than Fed projections. Five task forces were announced to examine communications, the balance sheet, data sourcing, productivity and labour, and the inflation framework.The dot plot delivered the hawkish surprise, with the mean projection pointing to one hike this year, underpinned by firmer employment and persistent inflation.One analyst maintains that the Fed will hold through September and assigns roughly 50% probability to a December move, with the possibility of two cumulative hikes by the end of 2027. The other holds a no-hike, no-cut view for this year but acknowledges the risk of tightening next year has risen materially, citing AI-driven capital expenditure as a potential source of sustained US growth that could justify future action.Both flag the task force structure as significant. The balance sheet review ranking second in priority suggests quantitative tightening remains a core policy tilt, one that could tighten financial conditions independently of any rate decision. With forward guidance gone, the burden on incoming data has increased sharply, and the range of plausible outcomes for the second half of 2026 is now unusually wide. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CITIC's hold call pushes against the market's current lean toward an October hike, creating a divergence worth monitoring as the US-Iran MOU beds in and energy-driven inflation pressure eases. If the geopolitical premium in oil continues to unwind, the inflation case for hiking weakens and the roughly 50-50 FOMC split that currently gives hike risk its credibility may shift toward the chair's position. The removal of forward guidance means markets must now read incoming data rather than Fed signals, adding volatility to rate pricing around each CPI and payrolls release. White House political dynamics add a further layer of complexity: a Fed that hikes into an election-sensitive economy risks friction with the administration, a consideration CITIC explicitly factors into its call. CITIC Securities maintains its call for the Fed to hold rates unchanged through 2026, arguing Warsh faces political constraints and that the US-Iran deal will ease the inflation pressure driving hawkish dot-plot bets. Summary:Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% at the June meeting, as expectedWarsh shortened the statement and stripped forward guidance, telling markets to price on incoming dataDot plot delivered a hawkish shock; FOMC currently split roughly 50-50 on whether to hike this yearCITIC argues Warsh will not support a hike given White House political constraints and easing energy inflation pressure from the US-Iran MOUThe committee split is expected to converge toward the chair's positionCITIC maintains its call for rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026 CITIC Securities is maintaining its call for the Federal Reserve to hold its policy rate unchanged through the remainder of 2026, arguing that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a combination of political constraints and fading inflation pressure that will prevent the hawkish dot plot from translating into an actual hike.The Fed left its benchmark rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the June meeting, in line with expectations. Warsh used the occasion to strip the post-meeting statement of forward guidance and cut it to around 130 words, explicitly directing markets to price policy on incoming economic data rather than a Fed-provided path. The move acknowledged that current data are lagging and that the policy signal should come from conditions rather than committee projections.The dot plot nonetheless delivered a hawkish surprise, with the median year-end funds rate projection rising to 3.8% and the committee splitting roughly 50-50 on whether a hike is warranted this year. Market pricing shifted toward an October move. CITIC's analysis takes a different view.The firm argues that progress toward the US-Iran memorandum of understanding should ease the geopolitically driven energy and inflation pressures that have provided the primary justification for tightening. With that tailwind for hawks fading, and with Warsh operating under political constraints from the White House, CITIC does not expect the chair to throw his weight behind a hike. Given that FOMC splits historically tend to converge toward the chair's position, the firm sees the 50-50 split as unstable and likely to resolve in favour of a hold.CITIC therefore keeps its year-end rate call unchanged: no move in 2026.CITIC Securities is China's largest investment bank by most measures, headquartered in Beijing and listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is majority owned by CITIC Group, one of China's largest state-owned conglomerates, and operates across investment banking, asset management, brokerage and research. Its macro and rates research is closely watched across Asian financial markets as a bellwether for how Chinese institutional investors are reading global monetary policy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The unanimous cut was fully priced and the BRL reaction will hinge on the tone around future easing rather than the decision itself. The explicit flagging of fiscal stimulus as an inflation upside risk is a hawkish signal that limits how far Copom can ease ahead of October's election without undermining its credibility. Rising inflation expectations across 2026, 2027 and 2028 horizons suggest the market is already questioning the bank's ability to anchor prices. Capital Economics sees only 50 basis points of further cuts across the next four meetings, a notably shallower path than earlier in the cycle. El Nino weather risks and a potential two-day working week bill add further supply-side pressure. The BRL remains vulnerable to any reassessment of the easing path if inflation continues to accelerate.--- Brazil's Copom cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 14.25% for a third straight meeting, keeping next steps open while flagging election-year fiscal stimulus as a new upside risk to inflation. (186 chars)Summary: Source: Copom policy statement and post-meeting commentaryCopom unanimously cut the Selic by 25bp to 14.25%, a level last seen in May 2025; 41 of 45 economists had forecast the moveNext steps left deliberately open; total easing magnitude will depend on incoming dataFiscal stimulus from President Lula flagged as an upside inflation risk that may weaken monetary policy transmission2026 inflation forecast raised to 5.2% from 4.6%; 2027 forecast lifted to 3.7% from 3.5%, both above the 3% targetCapital Economics forecasts 50bp of further cuts across the next four meetings, bringing Selic to 13.75% by year-endAdditional risks include El Nino weather effects and a proposed congressional bill guaranteeing workers two days off per week Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark Selic rate for a third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, lowering it by 25 basis points to 14.25%, while signalling that the easing cycle faces increasing headwinds from a deteriorating inflation outlook and election-year fiscal pressure.The rate-setting committee Copom voted unanimously for the cut, which had been forecast by 41 of 45 economists surveyed by Reuters. The decision brings the Selic to its lowest level since May 2025, continuing a calibration cycle that began in March after the bank judged its earlier tightening had sufficiently cooled activity and lending.But the accompanying statement introduced a notable new concern. Policymakers explicitly identified economic stimulus measures being rolled out by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of October's election as an upside risk to inflation, warning it could weaken the usual transmission channels of monetary policy. The bank also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.2% from 4.6% and its 2027 projection to 3.7% from 3.5%, both further above the official 3% target.Annual inflation hit 4.72% in May, and market expectations have risen across near and longer-term horizons, raising questions about the bank's ability to anchor prices independently of current shocks. Governor Gabriel Galipolo has separately flagged El Nino as an additional supply-side risk, while a congressional bill that could guarantee workers two days off per week adds further potential cost pressure in a tight labour market.COPOM stands for Comite de Politica Monetaria, which is Portuguese for Monetary Policy Committee. Brazil's central bank, the Banco Central do Brasil, uses the Portuguese acronym rather than an English equivalent, in the same way the European Central Bank's rate-setting body is called the Governing Council or the US equivalent is the FOMC. It was established in 1996, modelled partly on the US Federal Open Market Committee structure, and meets eight times a year to set the Selic rate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

"Houston, we have a problem...", SPCX rally loses upper-value acceptanceSpaceX stock, ticker SPCX, is still far above its IPO price, but the latest chart structure is no longer a clean bullish continuation. My current read is that SPCX has shifted into a post-IPO exhaustion and failed-repair setup, with sellers using the $208-$214 area aggressively and price now testing lower value around $193.50-$196.50.Key takeaways for SPCX stock holders (and some of you traders)Current bias: Bearish-leaning after failed upper-value acceptance.Blended tradable score: -3.5 / +10.Main resistance zone: $198.50-$202.60, then $208.50-$214.50.Main support zone: $193.50-$196.50, then $190-$187.Practical read: I would not chase a short directly into the lows. The cleaner setup is a failed bounce into resistance.On my -10 to +10 scale, -3.5 means a moderate bearish edge. It is not an extreme bearish signal, but it does show that sellers currently have more evidence on their side unless buyers reclaim the key repair zones.As I was reading that brokers like FxPro and Exness have introduced SpaceX CFDs and heard a guy on social media that was cheering to short that baby, I said, ok, it's time for me to deep dive into the new darling. So I did. As we know, the IPO itself was wonderful for the bulls, not to mention for Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and many others.What changed after the SpaceX IPO rally?The first stage of SPCX trading was genuinely bullish. From the IPO opening area near $150, SpaceX stock pushed as high as $225.64, a very large early extension for a newly listed mega-cap stock.That matters because this is not a washed-out stock. It is still a highly extended post-IPO name that is now testing whether the first euphoric value zone is being rejected.What stands out to me is the shift in behavior after the rally. Earlier, buyers accepted higher prices. Later, sellers started using the upper zone more aggressively. That is often where a hot IPO changes from “strong momentum” into “extension risk.”In my 1-hour chart of SPCX, the aggressive post-IPO impulse wave peaked at 225.64, and the market is currently consolidating that massive move inside a clean descending corrective channel. We are currently trading around 195.20, compressing right around the median lines of my pitchfork as the market digests the news of the $60B Anysphere acquisition.Here is how my technical tools are framing this structure:The 20 EMA: During the initial impulse move up from the 135 low, the 20 EMA acted as a clean dynamic support layer. However, once price broke below it on the 17th, the slope flattened, and the 20 EMA has transitioned into short-term overhead dynamic resistance, capping the recent intraday bounce attempts.The Modified Schiff Pitchfork: I applied the modified Schiff pitchfork to map the boundaries of this corrective swing. The price is currently respecting the upper half of the pitchfork geometry, grinding lower along the internal median lines. A clean hourly close back above the 20 EMA and the upper pitchfork parallel line would signal a structural breakout of this flag.Educational Insight: Standard vs. Modified Schiff PitchforkWhen an asset experiences a hyper-impulsive move followed by a sharp, shallow retracement, a standard Andrews Pitchfork is often far too steep to capture the true boundaries of the ensuing consolidation.The Modified Schiff Pitchfork solves this by shifting the original anchor point (Point A) by half the vertical distance and half the horizontal distance toward the first swing high (Point B). This creates a flatter, more realistic angle of orientation that is uniquely suited for mapping out post-impulse flag or pennant consolidations without the lines becoming too vertical to be useful.According to the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level II curriculum on geometric chart patterns, modifying the pitchfork’s origin point alters the slope to match the velocity of the corrective phase, making it highly effective for identifying hidden support and resistance lines during a grinding counter-trend regime. at investingLive.com, I also use that for channels and found those quite effective.What does the 4-hour SPCX chart show at the end of 18 June, 2026?The 4h structure shows a clear transition from launch demand into failed upper-value acceptance.The key 4h message is simple: SPCX accepted higher prices first, but then rejected the $208-$214+ value zone. That makes the current bounce a repair attempt, not yet a confirmed bullish reset.What does the 1-hour SPCX chart show now?The most important 1h event was the rejection bar near the upper failed-repair zone.SPCX traded into the $207.50-$213.80 area, built volume near the highs, and then closed much lower. That is usually not healthy action. It suggests that sellers were willing to hit bids after price revisited the old upper zone.The next move lower brought price toward $187.01, where buyers did defend the first flush. That defense matters. It prevents the read from becoming a clean breakdown call.But the bounce is still not strong enough to call a bullish reset.The latest 1h repair remains below:$198.50-$200.40, the first tactical repair zone.$202.50-$202.60, the first meaningful reclaim shelf.$208.50-$214.50, the major failed upper-value zone.What this means: buyers have stabilized the stock, but they have not yet taken back control.Why this weakness looks SPCX-specific, not only Nasdaq-drivenNasdaq weakness can amplify the move, but the SPCX decline looks more specific than just broad market beta.The relative comparison matters because a new IPO can fall for different reasons:The whole market may be weak.Retail enthusiasm may cool.Early buyers may take profits.Late buyers may get trapped near the first euphoric highs.Institutions may wait for lower prices before stepping in.In this case, SPCX underperformed both the broader Nasdaq futures context and the space-themed benchmark comparison in the supplied data. That makes me less willing to dismiss the move as just a normal market pullback.What are the key SpaceX stock levels to watch?tradeCompass map for SPCX stock tradersThe cleanest bearish setup is not a panic short into $190-$187. It is a failed bounce into $198.50-$202.60, especially if sellers reappear and price fails back below $198.50.The cleaner bullish case requires more proof. A bounce from $187 is useful, but a bullish reset needs acceptance above $202.60, and stronger confirmation above $208.50.What would change my mind on SPCX?I would upgrade SPCX from bearish-leaning to more neutral if price accepts above $202.60 and holds that area on pullbacks.I would upgrade it to a tactical bullish repair if price accepts above $208.50 with stronger buy-side participation and higher POC migration. A wick above that level is not enough. I would want to see the market actually spend time above the level and defend it.I would turn more bearish if $187 breaks and then becomes resistance from below. That would suggest the first lower-zone defense failed.How to know if this SpaceX stock analysis is still validThis analysis is most useful while SPCX is still trading around the levels in the map.If price is still between $193.50 and $202.60, the stock remains in the decision zone. In that area, traders should be careful with chasing because both failed breakdowns and failed bounces are possible.If SPCX has already accepted above $208.50, this article should no longer be treated as bearish. It would mean buyers have repaired the failed upper-value zone.If SPCX has broken below $187 and is holding below it, the bearish scenario has already moved to the next stage, and traders should avoid treating the original short setup as fresh.Practical decision support viewMy current classification is:SPCX is tradeable with confirmation, but bearish-leaning after a failed upper-value repair.The stock is not a clean breakdown because $187 held on the first flush and the latest 1h bars show some stabilization.But it is also not a clean long because price is still below the important reclaim area at $198.50-$202.60, and far below the major failed upper-value zone at $208.50-$214.50.My preferred playbook:Do not chase short directly into $190-$187 unless $187 breaks and retests from below.Watch for a failed bounce into $198.50-$202.60 for the cleaner short setup.Upgrade to neutral if SPCX reclaims and accepts above $202.60.Upgrade to bullish tactical repair only if SPCX accepts above $208.50 with stronger order flow and higher POC migration.For now, the better read is short bias on failed repair, not blind short-at-low.FAQIs SpaceX stock bullish or bearish after the IPO?SPCX is bearish-leaning in the current technical read because it failed to hold the upper post-IPO value zone near $208-$214. However, it is not a clean breakdown unless $187 fails and price accepts lower.What is the most important SPCX resistance level?The first important resistance zone is $198.50-$202.60. A stronger bullish repair would require acceptance above $208.50.What is the most important SPCX support level?The first major support area is $190-$187. If $187 fails and turns into resistance, the next downside magnets are $178.50-$176.50 and $172.50-$169.50.Is SPCX a buy after the pullback?I would not frame SPCX as an automatic buy after the pullback. The bullish case improves only if price reclaims $202.60, and becomes more convincing if it accepts above $208.50 with stronger order flow. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Japan's acute dependence on Middle East crude, with 94% of imports sourced from the region and 93% of those moving through Hormuz, means any delay in strait normalisation will weigh heavily on Asian refining margins and petrochemical feedstock costs. Naphtha tightness is a particular pressure point given its role across plastics and auto components supply chains. The survey's findings suggest Japanese end-users will continue drawing on alternative sources and national reserves well into the second half of 2026, sustaining elevated spot premiums for non-Middle Eastern crude grades. The minesweeping caveat is a reminder that physical reopening of the strait is a longer and more complex process than a diplomatic agreement alone can resolve.--- Nearly half of Japanese firms expect more than six months to return to normal operations after a ceasefire, with almost all worried about oil procurement despite government assurances, a Reuters survey shows. Summary: Source: Reuters survey conducted by Nikkei Research, 3-12 June 2026, 215 respondents from 490 companies contactedNearly half of respondents expect business operations to take more than six months to normalise after a ceasefireBreakdown: 17% said three months, 31% said six months, 39% said one year, 8% said three yearsJapan sourced 94% of crude oil from the Middle East last year, with 93% of those shipments transiting HormuzAlmost all firms are worried about oil and oil products procurement; 27% deeply worried, 69% somewhat worriedNaphtha supply constraints flagged as a key pressure point for petrochemical and manufacturing supply chainsSurvey was conducted before the US-Iran interim agreement was announced Nearly half of Japanese companies expect it will take more than six months for business operations to return to normal following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, underscoring the depth of the supply shock still facing the world's fourth-largest economy even as a peace framework takes shape.A Reuters survey conducted by Nikkei Research between June 3 and 12, before the US-Iran interim agreement was announced, found almost all Japanese firms remain worried about procurement of oil and oil products despite government assurances that national supply is being secured. Of 215 companies that responded, 39% said recovery would take up to a year and 8% put it at three years.Japan's vulnerability is structural. The country sourced 94% of its crude oil from the Middle East last year, with 93% of those shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the war began on February 28, Japan has been drawing down national oil reserves and scrambling for alternative supply sources.Naphtha emerged as a particular concern. The petrochemical feedstock, used in everything from plastic bags to automobile components, is in constrained supply, with one rubber manufacturer noting it could only secure two months of firm commitments. A wholesaler flagged that minesweeping alone would take time, adding a physical dimension to the reopening timeline that diplomatic agreements cannot shortcut.The survey's risk-averse tone likely reflects conditions before the ceasefire framework was announced, but the structural exposures it captures remain unchanged. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman's base case of Brent at $80 by year-end and $75 in 2027 suggests limited further downside from current levels, with the bank arguing the market has largely priced the recovery already. The asymmetry in the risk scenarios is the key trading signal: $50 of upside in the slow-recovery scenario against only $20 of downside if flows normalise faster than expected. Low inventories and a persistent disruption risk premium provide a floor. Demand recovery is expected to be swift but not complete, with EV penetration in China keeping a structural drag of around half a million barrels per day on the demand baseline into 2027.--- Goldman Sachs sees Brent averaging $80 at year-end and $75 in 2027, with risk skewed to the upside as low inventories and Hormuz uncertainty sustain a disruption premium even in the base case. Summary:Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research in a podcast, recorded 16 June 2026Brent has fallen from above $120 to the low $80s as markets price in a base-case recovery of Middle East supply by end of JulyStrait flows need to recover to roughly 70% of normal for regional exports to fully normaliseGoldman forecasts Brent at $80 and WTI at $74 by year-end, moving to $75 and $70 respectively in 2027Upside scenario: if Hormuz never fully reopens and Gulf exports recover only gradually, Brent could exceed $130 by year-endDownside scenario: faster reopening and persistent demand losses could push Brent to $60 in 2027China's 4-5 million barrel per day drop in crude imports is cited as the primary reason oil has not breached triple digitsAround 90% of the 5 million bpd demand loss is expected to recover by 2027, but EV growth leaves a residual half-million bpd structural drag Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average $80 per barrel by year-end and $75 in 2027, with its commodities research team arguing that markets have largely priced in the base-case recovery of Middle Eastern supply but that risks remain skewed to the upside.Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, said the selloff from above $120 to the low $80s reflected market confidence that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will begin recovering and that regional exports will return to normal levels by the end of July. For that to happen, strait transit volumes need to reach roughly 70% of pre-conflict levels, with pipeline rerouting having absorbed much of the remainder.Struyven framed the key uncertainty as one of Iranian intent rather than logistics. If Tehran allows flows to increase and early transits proceed without incident, other shippers are likely to follow. But he noted the market has seen false starts before.The risk distribution is notably asymmetric. A slow-recovery scenario in which the strait never fully reopens puts Brent above $130 by year-end. A faster-than-expected reopening combined with more persistent demand losses could push prices to $60 in 2027. Struyven judged both scenarios as roughly equal in probability but stressed the upside move is far larger in magnitude.Even in the base case, a structural premium remains. Inventories are depleted, the conflict has permanently altered some demand patterns, and Goldman sees oil prices running roughly $20 per barrel above pre-war levels on a sustained basis. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Just the data in this post. I'll have more to come on this separately. New Zealand GDP Q1 206:1.5% y/yexpected 1.1%, prior 1.3%0.8% q/qexpected 0.9%, prior 0.2%Background here:Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, June 18, 2026: New Zealand Q1 GDP preview This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei says Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments.Earlier:Iran-US MOU signed but Baghaei fires warning on missiles, uranium and Hormuz feesAdds:60-day period starts now This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The MOU signing removes the immediate tail risk of conflict escalation but the hawkish caveats from Baghaei will caution on further meaningful risk-off unwind in oil. A formalised Hormuz transit fee regime introduces a structural cost floor for tanker operators and crude importers that will not disappear with the peace deal. Iran's refusal to export nuclear materials or discuss missile capabilities signals the agreement is narrower than hawks in Washington will accept, keeping geopolitical risk premium alive. Markets will likely read the signing as modestly constructive but Baghaei's tone as a reminder that the harder negotiations are still ahead.--- Iran and the US have signed the MOU text electronically, but Tehran immediately ruled out missile negotiations, nuclear material exports and Hormuz fee waivers, keeping oil risk premium firmly in play. Summary:The Iran-US MOU text has been officially signed electronically by both presidentsFriday's Geneva meeting was not intended as a signing ceremony; negotiating teams remain in placeBaghaei ruled out any discussion of Iran's missile or defensive capabilities in any process or with any partyIran's nuclear materials will not be sent outside the country; the option on enriched uranium is dilutionFees will be charged for services to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz The Iran-US memorandum of understanding has been officially signed, with foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirming both presidents put their names to the electronic document. Baghaei, Iran's chief public voice on the negotiations and a senior diplomat who has led much of Tehran's external messaging through the peace process, wasted little time in drawing the limits of what the agreement actually covers.On missiles, his language was blunt to the point of theatrical. Iran's defensive capabilities will not be discussed in any process or with any party. The missiles, he said, are only meant to be fired, not negotiated. The comments land as a direct signal to Washington that any attempt to extend the MOU into weapons territory will be rejected outright.On nuclear material, Baghaei was equally firm. Enriched uranium will not be leaving Iranian soil. The option Tehran is prepared to consider is dilution, not export, a position likely to draw scrutiny from US lawmakers already sceptical of the deal's architecture.On Hormuz, the position confirmed earlier by chief negotiator Qalibaf was reinforced: ships will pay for the services they receive transiting the strait. The framing is deliberately procedural, but the commercial and geopolitical implications are significant for global energy flows.The Geneva meeting planned for Friday was described as not intended for signing purposes, with a decision on whether it proceeds expected within hours. Negotiating teams remain in place. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran says the plan for negotiating teams to meet in Geneva remains in place, but MoU was signed digitally.Will be no signing ceremony in Switzerland.Earlier:Iran signals permanent Hormuz changes as $300bn reconstruction deal confirmed This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The hawkish tilt in the dot plot, with the median 2026 funds rate projection rising to 3.8% from 3.4%, pushed short-term yields higher and weighed on equities as markets repriced the likelihood of a hike as early as October. The stripping of forward guidance removes a key anchor that markets had used to price the easing path, introducing greater uncertainty into rate-sensitive assets. The inflation upgrade, with headline PCE now seen at 3.6% for 2026 versus 2.7% in March, reinforces the case that the Fed is in no hurry to ease and may yet tighten. The balance sheet remains unchanged for now, but Warsh's task force on that front suggests it is a live issue. Any communication overhaul, including a potential scrapping of the dot plot, would further complicate forward pricing of Fed policy.--- The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% but Chair Warsh overhauled the policy statement, removed forward guidance, skipped the dot plot, and launched task forces to reshape major Fed operations.Summary: Sources: FOMC statement, Fed Chair Warsh press conference, 17 June 2026FOMC voted unanimously to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%Policy statement cut from 341 words to 130, dropping all forward guidance and easing bias languageDot plot median for end-2026 moved to 3.8% from 3.4%, signalling at least one hike is live; nine of 18 participants pencilled in a hike this yearWarsh declined to submit his own dot, citing concerns about the tool's usefulness, and flagged a broader review of Fed communicationsFive task forces announced to examine communications, balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and the inflation frameworkOfficials raised the 2026 headline inflation forecast to 3.6% and core to 3.3%, both up sharply from 2.7% in March Kevin Warsh's first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Fed chair delivered no surprise on rates but marked a sharp break from the communication style and institutional habits of his predecessor.The FOMC voted unanimously on Wednesday to hold its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, where it has sat since a series of cuts in late 2025. The decision itself was fully priced by markets. What was not fully priced was the extent to which Warsh would move immediately to reshape how the Fed speaks, projects and presents itself.The post-meeting statement checked in at around 130 words, less than half the length of the April release and stripped of the forward guidance language that had become a fixture under Jerome Powell. Gone was the committee's stated openness to adjusting policy in either direction. In its place, a spare summary of economic conditions and a blunt commitment to deliver price stability. Warsh had long argued the Fed overcommunicates and entangles itself in markets. Wednesday's statement was the first concrete expression of that view in policy form.The dot plot told a similarly hawkish story. The median projection for the federal funds rate at year-end rose to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine of 18 participating members seeing at least one hike in 2026. Warsh himself did not submit a projection, confirming at the press conference that he regards the tool as unhelpful in the conduct of policy and signalling it could be scrapped as part of a broader communications review.Officials also revised their economic projections in a direction that offers little comfort to those expecting cuts. The headline inflation forecast for 2026 was lifted to 3.6% and the core measure to 3.3%, against 2.7% for both in March, reflecting the persistent energy price pressures flowing from the Middle East conflict. GDP growth was trimmed slightly to 2.2% and unemployment to 4.3%.Warsh announced five task forces to examine the Fed's communications framework, its balance sheet, data sourcing, the productivity and employment outlook, and the inflation targeting framework. The scope of the review suggests a more thoroughgoing institutional overhaul is underway, one that markets will now need to navigate with fewer of the signposts they have relied on for the past decade. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand's March quarter GDP data is expected to show the economy gained solid momentum in the early months of 2026, even as the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February looms as a far larger threat to output in the quarters ahead.The median market forecast points to quarterly growth of 0.9%, up sharply from the 0.2% expansion recorded in the December quarter. On an annual basis, growth is seen slipping to 1.1% from 1.3% as a strong March quarter result a year earlier creates a high base. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had pencilled in 1.0% quarterly growth in its May Monetary Policy Statement, a level matched by both ANZ and Westpac in their updated forecasts, while BNZ sits marginally below at 0.9%, ASB at 0.8% and Kiwibank at the low end with 0.7%. Economists broadly agree the figures will capture a period of genuine recovery rather than the disruption to come. Manufacturing is expected to be among the strongest contributors, with food production supported by high milk collections, a rebound in fruit and wine output, and strong machinery activity. Wholesale trade, professional services, retail and tourism are also tipped to have added meaningfully to headline growth. Construction is the notable drag, with residential and non-residential building work falling around 3.5% in the quarter.A key caveat running through most forecasts is the distorting effect of seasonal adjustments. Westpac estimates that the methodology used by Statistics NZ inflates March quarter results by around 0.4 percentage points, meaning underlying growth is likely closer to 0.6%.The more consequential question is what comes next. The Iran conflict, which intensified through late February and March, is expected to register far more heavily in June quarter data, with at least one major bank forecasting a 0.3% contraction in Q2. The March print, however strong, is broadly being read as the starting position for a much harder period ahead.The result is also the only significant data point before the RBNZ's 8 July OCR review. The bank left the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% in May following a 3-3 committee vote, and has signalled that a tightening cycle is approaching. A significant upside or downside surprise could influence the balance of voting, though several economists suggest the committee is more focused on forward-looking inflation indicators than backward-looking activity data. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The confirmation that Hormuz will not revert to pre-war conditions introduces a structural premium into crude pricing that markets will need to reprice on a semi-permanent basis. A tolling regime on the world's most critical oil chokepoint, even one framed within international law, adds a new and unpredictable cost layer for tanker operators and crude importers alike. The $300bn investment commitment signals the peace framework is substantive rather than cosmetic, which may provide modest near-term relief on supply disruption risk, but the Hormuz transit fee signal is the more market-sensitive development and will keep a floor under oil.--- Iran's chief negotiator says Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions and Tehran will charge for strait transit services, as a $300bn investment deal is confirmed under the peace MOU. Summary:Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, though Iran says this does not mean acting against international law or maritime navigationIran intends to charge for transit services through the straitA $300bn investment allocation has been confirmed under the peace MOU, part of which is earmarked for reconstruction Iran's top negotiator has declared the Strait of Hormuz will never return to the conditions that prevailed before the conflict, while confirming Tehran intends to levy charges on vessels transiting the world's most critical oil shipping lane.Qalibaf, speaking via Iranian state media, framed the changes as a sovereign exercise rather than a violation of international norms, saying the new arrangements would not act against international law or impede maritime navigation. The distinction is unlikely to fully reassure energy markets, which have spent months pricing in the risk of prolonged disruption to the roughly 20% of global oil supply that moves through the strait.The remarks came alongside confirmation that $300 billion has been allocated for investment in Iran under a memorandum of understanding, with a portion directed toward reconstruction.The transit fee signal is the more immediate market concern. Any formalised tolling mechanism on Hormuz would represent a structural shift in the cost of moving Gulf crude to global markets, with implications for tanker operators, refiners and end consumers across Asia and Europe. How those charges are structured, enforced and priced into freight rates remains to be seen, but the direction of travel is now explicit. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

All that campaigning for the Fed job with dovish-sounding rhetoric was quickly set aside at the first meeting of the Warsh era. As Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh struck a much more hawkish tone, emphasizing the need to bring inflation under control. The message was reinforced by a dot plot that pointed to a more restrictive policy path than many had expected.The result was a sharp move higher in Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Stocks reacted as anticipated, moving lower, although the declines remained relatively orderly rather than turning into a broad-based selloff.At the close:Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.97% S&P 500: -1.21% Nasdaq Composite: -1.34% Russell 2000: -0.72% From a technical perspective, the decline pushed the major indices below both their 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, tilting the near-term bias back in favor of the sellers.For the S&P 500, the 100-hour moving average is at 7488.34 and the 200-hour moving average is at 7462.77. The index closed at 7420.11, below both key levels.For the Nasdaq, the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages are converged near 26,335, while the index settled at 26,021.66, leaving it comfortably below both trend gauges.Going forward, buyers will need to push the indices back above their respective 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages to regain near-term control. Until that happens, the technical advantage remains with the sellers.Honestly, the stock market could have reacted much more negatively to the Fed's hawkish shift. The relatively measured decline suggests investors may be looking beyond today's tougher rhetoric and focusing on factors that could ultimately help the inflation outlook.One possibility is the sharp decline in oil prices, which reduces input costs across a wide range of industries and eases pressure on consumers. Another is the growing belief that a more hawkish Fed stance could discourage companies from continuing to push through price increases. Businesses often have an easier time raising prices when costs are rising and inflation expectations are elevated. However, if energy prices stabilize or move lower and inflation pressures begin to ease, that pricing power becomes more difficult to justify.Airfares will be one area to watch. Lower fuel costs typically work their way into airline economics, and if ticket prices fail to respond, expect increased scrutiny from both consumers and policymakers. With energy costs declining, the market may be betting that some of the inflation tailwinds that have supported higher prices across the economy begin to fade in the months ahead.For now, investors appear willing to give that possibility the benefit of the doubt, which may help explain why stocks sold off, but not aggressively, despite the Fed's more hawkish message. Now it may continue but for today, yes indices fell and the bullishness from lower oil prices is gone. However, it could have been worse. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair Warsh: We recognize that inflation has been running "well ahead" of 2%Warsh Q&A: I see no reason to revisit 2% inflation goal until we have deliveredFOMC June 2026 dot plot sees end of year target at 3.8% vs 3.4% in March 2026Trump on the Fed raising rates: It could happenThe full FOMC statement from the June 2026 meeting.Federal Reserve rate decision: No change to the Fed funds target, as expectedUS May advance retail sales +0.9% vs +0.5% expectedUS weekly EIA crude oil inventories -8263K vs -4566K expectedUS pending home sales for May 3.8% versus 0.8% expectedUS April business inventories +0.5% vs +0.5% expectedECB's Sleijpen: A repeat of 2022 inflation appears less likely but can't be excludedCanada new housing price index for May -0.3% versus -0.4% last monthMarkets:Gold down $90 to $4240US 10-year yields up 7 bps to 4.49%US 2-year yields up 17 bps to 4.22%USD leads, NZD and GBP lagS&P 500 down 1.4%This was not the Kevin Warsh that Trump nominated with marching orders to lower rates. Instead, he sounded like a guy utterly determined to get inflation down to 2%, even if it causes pain. The market was surprised and it started with the statement, which was curt and finished on a line about price stability. Initially, that could be dismissed as housekeeping but as the press conference went on, it became abundantly clear this was the 2010 hawkish version of Warsh, no the guy who campaigned for the job sounding like he was Stephen Miran. The market response was to buy the US dollar in a big way. It came in waves and ultimately sent the euro down more than 100 pips to 1.1495. The pound was hit even harder with a dive to 1.3280 from 1.3400. No currency was spared with moves in the neighborhood of 1% but JPY did show some respect for intervention with a much smaller 20 pip move to 160.66.I fear more could be coming as US 2-year yields rose 17 bps to 4.21%. Market pricing now sits on 40 bps of hikes this year from 21 bps before the FOMC and even the July meeting now looks like it's in play. There was hardly even a nod to the employment side of the mandate.Stock markets were slow to react to the moves in bonds but the selling picked up after the press conference and the market struggled from there with consumer discretionary lagging, including a 3.5% decline in Amazon and a 4.3% drop in Target shares. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDJPY is extending above the 2026 high at 160.717. The high price reached 160.79.Warsh came in and the tone of the Fed shifted with officials changed their favorite bird from a dove to a hawk. For the USDJPY the price is moving further away from the 160.00 level - a level that attracted the Bank of Japan and Japanese officials in the past. However, the market is having it hard to ignore the 2 year yield moving up 17 basis points to 4.22%. The September futures has a 65% chance of a hike now up from 32% before the decision.Looking at the daily chart, more momentum would have traders looking toward 2024 highs at 161.92 - if Japan will allow it. Support/close risk for traders is 160.44 and below that the 100/200 hour MAs near 160.25. If the price cannot get and stay below those MA, the sellers are not winning. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.