Crude oil futures settle at $102.88. That is up $3.24 or 3.25%. The close above $100 is the 1st since July 2020 and the highest close since July 11, 2011.Crude oil today is continuing to be driven by escalating geopolitical risk tied to the Iran conflict and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Rising tensions—including threats to energy infrastructure by Pres. Trump, Houthi involvement, and shifting military strategy—are keeping a strong risk premium in prices. At the same time, mixed signals from U.S. officials and Iran on negotiations versus escalation are creating volatility, with the market balancing potential supply disruption against the possibility of an eventual reopening of the strait.The Houthis (Ansar Allah) are a Yemen-based militant and political group that emerged in the 1990s and now control large parts of northern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa. They are widely seen as aligned with Iran and have become a key player in broader Middle East tensions. Positioned near the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a critical global shipping chokepoint—the Houthis have used drones, missiles, and naval tactics to target commercial vessels, claiming links to Israel. These attacks have disrupted shipping routes, increased costs, and added a risk premium to global energy markets. Despite being a regional force, their actions have outsized global impact, influencing oil prices, trade flows, and geopolitical risk sentiment as their involvement raises the potential for wider conflict.The price is closing below the 61.8% of the move down from the March high to the March low at 103.15. This retracement will be a barometer for the short term for buyers and sellers.Brent crude futures settle at $112.78 up $0.21 or 0.19%. Brent crude, on the other hand, is a specific type of crude oil sourced from the North Sea and serves as one of the main global pricing benchmarks, used to price a large portion of the world’s oil. While “crude oil” refers to the broad category, Brent is a standardized reference point that reflects international supply and demand conditions, which is why traders often compare it with other benchmarks like WTI to gauge regional price differences and market dynamics. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The story so far reads like something out of a bad thriller: a misconfigured content management system, 3,000 unsecured documents, and the accidental exposure of what Anthropic now confirms is the most capable AI model it has ever built. Fortune broke the story last Thursday. By Friday's open, cybersecurity stocks were in free-fall. CrowdStrike alone lost roughly $15 billion in market cap in a single session. The catalyst wasn't an earnings miss, a product failure, or a CEO departure, it was a draft blog post sitting on an unsecured URL. What is Mythos? Claude Mythos — internally codenamed "Capybara" — is a new tier of model that sits above Anthropic's current flagship Opus line. The leaked draft describes it as larger and more intelligent than anything the company has shipped. Anthropic confirmed this much, calling it "a step change" in reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity capabilities. The key detail that spooked the market: the draft warns that Mythos is "far ahead of any other AI model in cyber capabilities" and signals an incoming generation of models that can find and exploit software vulnerabilities faster than human defenders can patch them. Anthropic itself is reportedly warning senior government officials that large-scale AI-assisted cyberattacks become substantially more likely this year. The fear is that the new generation of models will have the capability to break the internet, or at least anything that needs to secure data. Traditional cybersecurity vendors — CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler, Okta — command premium multiples because they sit on proprietary threat telemetry and years of accumulated detection logic. If a general-purpose frontier model can replicate or exceed that capability at scale, investors are right to question the durability of those margins. Raymond James analyst Adam Tindle outlined several risks worth highlighting: compression of traditional defensive advantages, rising attack complexity that pushes up the cost to defend, and the possibility of wholesale shifts in how security budgets are allocated. "We read this as having the potential to become the ultimate hacking tool, and one that can elevate any ordinary hacker into a nation-state adversary," Stifel analyst Adam Borg in a research note on Friday.The other side of the trade — and the bull case for spending — is that this forces enterprises to modernize their defences immediately. The big cybersecurity names have also been given early looks at Mythos to both prepare and evaluate what they find. Ultimately, it could add to their moat and a big reason for the major bounce in security stocks today is that Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora bought $10m in shares last week.Here's where it gets more interesting from a cross-asset perspective. Mythos doesn't land in isolation. It lands in a market that is already trying to reprice the velocity of AI disruption across all of software. For macro traders, the AI capex cycle is the other thread to pull. Mythos is described as extremely compute-intensive and expensive to run — Anthropic says it's working on efficiency before any broad release. That's bullish for the picks-and-shovels trade: NVDA, the hyperscalers, power infrastructure. If the next generation of models requires substantially more compute, the capital spending cycle has further to run even as the downstream beneficiaries face disruption. We also can't ignore the geopolitical overlay. Anthropic has been blacklisted by the Trump administration after setting limits on military use of its models, and is now in litigation with the federal government. Mythos arriving during that standoff is a complication. If the model is genuinely as powerful in offensive cyber capabilities as described, the question of who gets access — and who doesn't — becomes a national security issue.The competitive angle OpenAI reportedly finished pre-training its own frontier model, codenamed "Spud," around the same time this leak hit. Both companies are reportedly positioning for IPOs later this year. The timing of the Mythos leak — whether genuinely accidental or not — couldn't be more combustible. This is going to be a theme for the rest of 2026: frontier AI labs racing to demonstrate capability while trying to manage the political and regulatory consequences of that capability. The immediate question is how cybersecurity names trade this week as the story matures. Friday's sell-off was indiscriminate but the bounce today has been equally large. Longer term, watch for three things: First, Anthropic's release timeline. They've said they're giving cyber defence organisations early access before any general availability. How long that staged rollout takes matters enormously for how fast the threat landscape actually shifts. Second, the policy response. If Anthropic is genuinely warning officials that Mythos makes large-scale attacks more likely, there is going to be pressure for export controls, access restrictions, or some form of licensing regime for frontier cyber models. That's a new regulatory risk for the entire AI sector. Finally, there has been no shortage of hype around a 'step change' in models and we've seen it so many times before. But if it's true and we are getting a new generation of truly superior models, that further extends the ceiling of what AI can do and how disruptive it is for the economy, and ultimately, how useful it will be. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Israel's Channel 12 reports that Netanyahu's government proposed to Trump that they should strike Iran's energy infrastructure to accelerate the collapse of the regime.The report says Israeli officials have proposed a plan to Trump alleging there is a window of opportunity to topple the Iranian regime through the financial crash caused by potential strikes on energy infrastructure.That's certainly not helping sentiment and that kind of crash might be the thing to topple a few countries' governments, especially if Iran makes good on threats to hit energy infrastructure in the region in response.Stock markets are now negative on the day with the S&P 500 down 10 points after climbing by 50 premarket. WTI crude oil is up $3.82 to $103.46, near the highs of the day.A separate Y-Net report says that whatever the US decides on dealing with Iran will be acceptable to Tel Aviv. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

ECBs Stournaras is on the wires saying: ECB would react to a 2nd round of price effects from oil shockshe conflict in Middle East be protracted, then ECB March baseline scenario is a riskLonger or may mean baseline no longer holds and makes a stagflation more likely.Here's a roundup of recent ECB commentary, dominated by the Middle East war and its inflationary implications:Christine Lagarde — PresidentAt the March 19 policy meeting, the Governing Council held rates unchanged, noting the Middle East war has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside inflation risks and downside growth risks. Then, at the March 25 "ECB and Its Watchers" conference, Lagarde signalled policymakers stand ready to hike rates even if the expected inflation jump proves temporary, saying that if the shock gives rise to a large but not-too-persistent overshoot of target, "some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted." She also stressed the ECB would not allow a repeat of the 2022 inflation episode.Luis de Guindos — Vice-PresidentSpeaking in Tallinn on March 26, de Guindos said the ECB is "closely monitoring" the economic effects of the Iran war and reaffirmed the bank is "unwavering" in its commitment to the 2% inflation target, adding that the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach allows the ECB to respond in an agile manner to the evolving outlookPhilip Lane — Chief EconomistAt the ECB Watchers conference on March 25, Lane highlighted companies' price-hike expectations and wages for new hires as key inflation indicators the ECB will be closely watching as it assesses whether the energy shock feeds through into broader price pressures.Isabel Schnabel — Executive BoardSchnabel delivered a guest lecture at the University of Zurich on March 28, with slides published on the ECB's website. She has broadly been aligned with the hawkish pivot narrative; the ECB's institutional memory of the 2022 energy crisis and the discrediting of "team transitory" means the bank will talk hawkish even if the energy shock proves short-lived. Piero Cipollone — Executive BoardCipollone participated in a panel on "The banking system and today's geopolitical challenges" in Naples on March 28, and also delivered an introductory statement before the European Parliament's economic committee. His focus has been on the digital euro and European financial integration.Overall ECB tone: The institution has made a clear hawkish pivot. The baseline scenario projects headline inflation at 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, with growth revised down to 0.9% in 2026 — though many officials have noted those projections are already outdated given energy prices have moved well above the cut-off assumption This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil pushed to its highest level since March 9, extending to an intraday high of $103.86. In doing so, the price moved above the 61.8% retracement of the sharp move down from the March 9 high to the March 10 low, which comes in at $103.16—tilting the bias more firmly in favor of buyers.Looking back to last week, the price had already reclaimed the 50% midpoint of that same decline at $98.11, a level that helped shift momentum higher. Today’s corrective dip found support at $99.43, comfortably above that 50% level, reinforcing it as a solid risk-defining area for buyers.For sellers to regain control, they would need to push the price back below $103.16 and hold it there, then extend the move lower through the $98.11 midpoint. Until that happens, the buyers remain in charge with momentum still pointing to the upside. In the video above I take a look at the technicals driving the price of oil and show the key levels to explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The WSJ is reporting that diplomats and global leaders are floating a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for fertilizer exports using a model similar to the Ukraine grain corridor established during the Russia-Ukraine war. The idea is to create a protected humanitarian shipping route, allowing critical supplies to move safely despite ongoing tensions.Support for the plan is building among politicians and Non-Goverment Organizations, with figures like former Ireland President Mary Robinson and Sweden’s former prime minister Carl Bildt backing the initiative. Ukrainian President Zelensky has also been involved in discussions, offering insights from how the Black Sea grain corridor successfully operated.The proposal could also align with Iran’s interests, helping secure food supply chains while reinforcing its claim that any disruptions in Hormuz are targeted at military or hostile actors—not humanitarian shipments.Bottom line: A Ukraine-style safe corridor for fertilizer exports is being explored as a way to ease global supply risks while navigating geopolitical tensions in Hormuz. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Nasdaq index is chopping up and down during the Powell speech, reflecting indecision after last week’s sharp selloff. The low for the day reached 20891.96, briefly breaking below a key swing area between 20902.48 and 21033.05, but sellers could not generate follow-through momentum.The price has since bounced and is now trading back within that swing area near 20948. This zone is the barometer for buyers and sellers today—and likely into the week ahead.Move back above 21033.05, and you should see increased short covering after five consecutive weeks of declines. That would shift the near-term bias more to the upside.On the downside, a break back below 20902.48 would re-empower sellers and likely lead to a resumption of the move lower, targeting the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the April 2024 low at 20491.86.Bottom line: The market is at a key inflection point. The swing area defines the bias—above favors a corrective bounce, below opens the door for another leg lower. Pay attention. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

President Trump spoke with the New York Post in some comments that are hard to interpret. He seemed to indicate that the US was negotiating with Iran's parliamentary speaker, someone who was reported dead on the weekend but has continued to tweet frequently, including about market moves.Asked about Iran Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, he encouraged Iran to make a deal before it's too late.“We’re gonna find out,” Trump told The Post. “I’ll let you know that in about a week.”That corresponds with the April 6 deadline Trump set. However the market isn't sure how seriously to take that timeline given that he's extended it twice already.Trump also leaned into the regime change rhetoric, which is an odd one given that the Supreme Leader is the old leader's son and the parliamentary speaker hasn't changed, and is highly combative online.“There has been total regime change because the regimes of the past are gone and we’re dealing with a whole new set of people,” Trump said. “And thus far, they’ve been much more reasonable.”Asked about the new Supreme Leader, Trump said he's unwell but probably alive. “We don’t know. We think probably yes, but in extraordinarily bad shape," he said.In terms of the attack on an Israeli refinery, he said the US response would be coming 'shortly'.I don't know if there's anything new here that wasn't in the Truth Social post earlier.Notably, WTI prices are up $2.88 to $102.58 but US Treasury yields are down 8-11 bps across the curve, which runs counter to the recent relationship with oil. The S&P 500 is up 0.3% while the Nasdaq is flat. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on a sustained basisThere is tension between our two objectivesWe haven't really seen the downside risks to a large balance sheetPolicy in a good place to wait and see how current situation plays outTariffs likely a one-time increase adding between 0.5% and 1.0% to inflationTendency is to look through supply shocks but must keep an eye on inflation expectationsMonitoring inflation expectations very carefully, appear to be well anchoredWe are getting close to the point where Powell is a lame duck. He still has two meetings as Chair and we don't know if he will stay on as Governor but Warsh's words (if he ever speaks) will carry more weight going forward. The Fed funds futures market is pricing in a small chance of rate cuts late this year after pricing in a 50% chance of a hike at one point last week.More:We don't know what the effects of the current situation might beReiterates the importance of vigilanceAI is making people more productiveI'm very optimistic about the medium and long termThere's no denying it's a challenging time to enter the labor forceWe do not see contagion from private credit right nowDoesn't have the makings of a broader systemic event right now This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tech stocks mixed: Microsoft climbs, semiconductors stumble? Sector OverviewTechnology Sector: A dynamic session in technology saw Microsoft (MSFT) rise by 1.62%, showing strength in the software-infrastructure space, while the semiconductor industry struggled, with Micron (MU) down 4.38% and Intel (INTC) dropping 1.81%.Consumer Cyclical:Amazon (AMZN) rallied by 1.08%, buoying the internet retail space, and Tesla (TSLA) edged up 0.46%, contributing to gains among auto manufacturers.Communication Services:Meta (META) advanced by 1.49%, while Google (GOOG) stayed nearly flat with a slight slip of 0.10%, indicating mixed sentiment in this vital sector.Healthcare: The sector made significant strides, with Eli Lilly (LLY) up 1.51%, reflecting positive momentum in drug manufacturing.Industrials:General Electric (GE) saw a notable downturn, falling 2.79%, which might reflect broader concerns in the industrial and aero defense markets.? Market Mood and TrendsToday's market presented a mix of optimism and uncertainty. Tech giants like Microsoft led gains, hinting at investor confidence in software and cloud services. Conversely, the semiconductor sector faced headwinds, possibly due to supply chain concerns or market saturation fears.Overall, the positive movement in consumer cyclical and healthcare stocks showcases ongoing demand and innovation optimism. Conversely, declines in key industrial stocks may suggest caution amid economic growth concerns.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider diversifying portfolios by increasing exposure to healthcare and stable tech stocks like Microsoft, which are showing resilience during market fluctuations.Be cautious with semiconductor investments given the current volatility and ensure any positions are balanced by investments in sectors showing growth, such as communication services.Remain vigilant for news impacting industrial sectors and continue monitoring economic indicators for longer-term strategic adjustments.For continuous updates, visit InvestingLive.com for expert insights and comprehensive market analysis. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2New orders +6.1 vs +11.8 priorPrices paid 32.7 vs 31.7 priorEmployment -1.0 vs +7.5 priorThe surging energy market is undoubtedly a boom for Texas, even with the associated inflation headwinds. However it's going to be tough to pull the trigger on fresh drilling unless executives feel that the war will continue.The comments in the report might be more representative of how higher energy is hitting the broader economy:Beverage and tobacco product manufacturingWe have seen decreases in some of our costs, in particular agricultural raw materials. We have seen increases in the costs of our packaging materials, some of this related to increase in energy costs. We expect the Iran war to cause increases in energy costs for a period extending at least six months and potentially longer. This has increased our uncertainty for the rest of the year.Chemical manufacturingThe Iran war and bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz has caused significant supply chain disruption from China, allowing the U.S. chemicals sector to benefit from the supply bottleneck. We believe this to be short-lived and the situation to return to the lower demand levels in the latter half of 2026.Computer and electronic product manufacturingI am thinking about recommending to our board to close the company.We have seen no impact yet from higher fuel prices. However, we expect to see this very soon, as our vendors will increase raw materials prices to include the increased cost for transportation.We would like to see lower interest rates throughout this year.Food manufacturingContinuing confusion at the federal level, illiquid consumer base and falling federal government spending are not helping the food industry.High density Hispanic channels are down. Costs are up, and freight is increasing fast. Tariff chaos has wreaked havoc with all of our export customers and seasoning suppliers. We are worried about costs increasing due to fuel price increases. We are worried about a slowdown in the economy due to geopolitics.Furniture and related product manufacturingThe Iran war and impact on energy prices are concerns as consumers have to deal with the rapid increase in energy cost. Hopefully it will moderate as the conflict curtails. That said, the more demoralizing impact of the constant circus out of Washington and inability to fund critical infrastructure like TSA is killing the animal spirits of our economy.Machinery manufacturingWe are beating our competition due to the continued vertical integration plans that we are focused on implementing and improving. This requires a great deal of planning and money, but the payout is very sound.Spring has sprung. It’s truly like the balm of Gilead. After an extended period of ailment and woe, the healing has occurred and we are on our way to greater things. Our business growth thus far in 2026 is like a sweet fragrance that is healing our loss and hardship from prior years. We are still seeing strong business activity with our backlog increasing.Our company is seeing an increase in activity totally unrelated to the current geopolitical conditions. The effect of uncertainty delayed the start of a new manufacturing project in the U.S. (tariffs, capital expenditures) in 2025. Project 2025 is underway with a six-month delay and scaled back to accommodate a less ambitious picture for 2026. We are still recovering from 2025 plus a more conservative outlook for 2026. Things are trending upward in our field but at a much slower pace.Miscellaneous manufacturingMany external factors contributing to an unstable market.If we could get our tariff reimbursement back, that would put us in a position to invest in growth. Without it, though, we don't have the capital to invest in growth.Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturingWe are waiting for home building activity to pick up, which is dependent upon interest rates.Paper manufacturingOverall business still slow. Have achieved limited price reductions in some raw materials that are in an oversupply condition but not enough to keep up with the decline in selling prices of our products. We still see upward pressure on labor and benefits cost. Margins are reduced from 12 months ago.Plastics and rubber products manufacturingImporting from China is precarious. The costs of product and freight are higher and slower. Suppliers are apprehensive. Their costs are increasing, especially a certain raw material plastic impacted by petrochemicals affected by cost of oil.Printing and related support activitiesWe have been stupid slow recently, slower than we can recall in many years. We continue to believe it’s from the chaos and confusion coming out of Washington. In addition, now with the Iran war, prices are going to shoot up due to shipping costs, and tariffs are still in effect. So, there is no telling when business will start to improve. We have some nice work coming in soon, but it's work we knew was coming. We are seeing some improvement in our estimating backlog, which is a good sign of better days to come. The war is causing a disruption of raw materials prices as we are producing plastic-based products, virtually all of our raw materials are hydrocarbon based. Fifteen percent increases are normal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is pushing to new session highs against the EUR, GBP, CHF, and AUD in late-day trading, showing renewed demand even as US yields move lower. The 2-year yield is down -7.4 basis points to 3.840%, while the 10-year is off -8.6 basis points at 4.354%. That divergence—stronger dollar alongside falling yields—suggests flows and positioning are currently outweighing rate dynamics.At the same time, oil prices are holding firm, while equities are losing some upside momentum. The Nasdaq has erased earlier gains and is now chopping around unchanged. The S&P is still modestly higher by 0.21%, and the Dow is up 0.44%, but the tone is less convincing as the session progresses.From a technical perspective, the dollar strength is showing up clearly across the major pairs:EURUSD: The pair has broken below a key swing area between 1.1484 and 1.1491, turning that zone into a risk-defining level for sellers. Staying below keeps the bearish bias intact, with the next downside target coming near the March lows at 1.1407.GBPUSD: Sellers have taken control after breaking below the March/2026 lows between 1.3217 and 1.3229. That area now acts as close resistance. On the downside, a daily swing area between 1.3138 and 1.3178 becomes the next target zone.USDJPY: The pair initially moved lower, breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 159.45, but downside momentum stalled ahead of an upward-sloping trendline and the 200-hour moving average at 159.18. Buyers leaned against that support, and the pair has since bounced as broader USD buying re-emerges—even as concerns linger about underlying yen weakness.USDCHF: The USDCHF has extended to new highs, breaking above a key swing area between 0.7978 and 0.7989, which tilts the bias more firmly to the upside. The move has now pushed above the natural resistance at 0.8000, with the high reaching 0.8005. Holding above 0.8000 keeps buyers in control and opens the door for further upside extension. A move back below the prior swing area would be needed to take some of the bullish momentum away, but for now, the break and hold above that cluster gives buyers the green light.AUDUSD: The AUDUSD broke below a key swing area last week between 0.6896 and 0.6908, and that shift has clearly opened the downside. The break is significant because, going back to January, the pair moved quickly higher through that zone—leaving little in the way of meaningful support on the way down. That creates more of an “open road” feel for sellers. The next natural support comes in near 0.6800, followed by 0.6765. Beyond that, traders will look toward the January low at 0.6658 as a key longer-term downside target.Bottom line: The USD is in control across the board. EURUSD and GBPUSD have broken key support levels (higher USD), keeping the bearish bias intact with room to extend lower. USDCHF is breaking higher and holding above 0.8000, reinforcing upside momentum. AUDUSD has entered “open road” territory to the downside after its breakdown. The only pause is in USDJPY which is lower on the day (lower USD), but where buyers are holding key support after a dip—but even there, USD demand is starting to reassert itself. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 futures were up 50 points shortly before the open, but that's faded to just +5 shortly after the open.The drop in stocks has come as oil prices have ticked back higher. WTI crude is up $2.96 to $102.56 and that's now just 80-cents from the session high. Given the threats from Trump, there is the threat of the destruction of Iran's oil industry, and the corresponding attacks by Iran on its neighbour's facilities. That would plunge the world into crisis as there is no way to bring those barrels back or replace them.Despite rising oil, the bond market is increasingly seeing a flight to safety. US 10-year yields are now down 9 bps and near a session low at 4.35%. There is an argument for looking beyond the oil shock towards the growth shock from energy.Admittedly, I was puzzled by the optimism in stock markets and some of it was clearly driven by tech stocks. Those are unfortunately facing their own questions about the impacts of AI and huge capex spending. The Nasdaq is trading just above flat now with memory names as the laggard.A report late last week emphasized that the huge 'orders' that OpenAI made for memory were not firm and might be declined. The prices of memory have loosened notably lately and the laggard today is Western Digital, down 4.6% and trading at the lowest since March 12. Memory has been the best-performing trade this year and its weakening is a worrisome sign that there's nowhere to hide.There is also some pressure on chipmakers while some of the cybersecurity names have rebounded. There is some real concern about a leaked blog post from Anthropic that says a new model is a huge risk to security. That saw names like Palo Alto Networks plunge on Friday but the same name is up 6.1% today, in part because the CEO bought $10m in shares in a weekend filing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY began a fall earlier today after Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warned authorities are ready to take “decisive” action if speculative moves persist. It was the strongest intervention signal yet and led to a quick drop from 160.40 to below the big figure.That decline has continued and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama is now piling on, saying that Japan is watching market moves with a "high sense of urgency". Katayama has used the 'decisive' comment recently but Mimura is seen as the final line of rhetoric before intervention.I warned on Friday about the potential for intervention or tough talk as the pair was flirting with some major levels.Now we're getting a significant reversal but it's still dwarfed by the January 23 'rate check move where the pair dove from 159.22 down to 155.71 and then continued to 153.30 in the subsequent two days.But with an energy crisis brewing, Japan is in a tough spot. They have huge reserves of oil but higher energy costs will ultimately sap its current account and drive up borrowing costs. It's naturally one of the most hard-hit major economies in a global energy crisis because it imports virtually all its energy. Last year, Japan embarked on a restart of its nuclear power facilities but that's a long-term aid, not a short-term solution. Japan will also have a difficult time negotiating directly with Tehran for passage of its ships through Hormuz.USD/JPY was last down 94 pips to 159.37.Zooming out to a weekly chart, the importance of 160.00 is clear. That's capped the pair since 2024 when there was a major intervention and top. There is a reluctance for speculators to push it through but at some point the fundamentals take over. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is pushing higher again today, extending the trend-like rally that began last Monday—and doing so with solid technical backing.Last week’s turning point came when the pair found support near the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, bottoming at 1.3669 (just above the MA at 1.3662). From there, the buyers took control. The subsequent move higher broke through a key cluster of resistance, including the 100-day MA (1.3790), the 200-day MA (1.3803), and the 50% retracement of the move down from the November 2025 high (1.3810). That confluence break was the green light for buyers—and they responded. The pair rallied 226 pips into the weekly close at 1.3892.Momentum has carried into today’s session, with price extending to a high of 1.3927. That move has now pushed the pair into a well-defined swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937—a zone that has acted as both resistance and support going back to August, and one that capped the rally in January near 1.3928.This is where things get interesting.If buyers can push above 1.3937 and hold, it opens the door for further upside extension. The trend remains intact, and as always, the bias stays with the direction of momentum—the trend is your friend.However, this area also offers a low-risk opportunity for sellers. With price pressing into a well-established resistance zone, traders looking for a corrective move may lean against it.On the downside, a move back below the 61.8% retracement at 1.3888 would start to give sellers a foothold. A break below 1.3860—and more importantly 1.3843—would increase confidence that a near-term high is in place and shift the bias more neutral to bearish.Key levels to watch:Resistance: 1.3924–1.3937 (swing area); break above keeps the bullish trend in play Support: 1.3888 (61.8% retracement), 1.3860, 1.3843 For now, the buyers remain in control—but they’re being tested at a key technical ceiling. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The mood is positive in US markets so far this week as Trump talks about a de-escalation.The messages are mixed though and that's leading to some confusion. The oil market remains 1.8% higher but US stock futures are up 0.8% and Treasury yields are down 5-7 bps across the curve.Trump tweeted about negotiations, much as he did last week, but this time the pop in US stock futures was fleeting. The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately "Open for Business," we will conclude our lovely "stay" in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet "touched." This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime's 47 year "Reign of Terror." Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPSince then, we have had messages from both sides trying to clarify and re-frame. Iran's response seemingly came via Fars News. They noted that Iranian officials say no negotiations have taken place with the US and that none are planned.They say it's some kind of messaging indicating that Trump is trying to show that Iran is looking for negotiations for show. The upside of that is that he is trying to show himself as the winner of the war and is looking to end the war.On the US side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio somewhat contradicted Trump in comments to ABC. Rather than saying different people were speaking, he said the people in Iran are speaking to us in different ways than before. He didn't offer much else but reiterated that the objectives of the operation were to destroy the Iranian navy and its defensive industrial base and its capability to manufacture missile launchers. He also said -- ominously -- that the US prefers to settle the war diplomatically but must be prepared for the possibility of diplomacy failing with Iran.Perhaps telling is that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was also rolled out on Fox News and spent most of the interview trying to talk down oil prices. He said the market is 'well supplied' despite the missing 10-12 mbps. He also said the US would take control of the Strait of Hormuz over time.For now, it's tough to argue with the price action in markets but it's equally tough to have any conviction in how this will end. Trump is repeatedly talking positively about negotiations but there is almost no verification of that from any other angle and reports were fairly consistent that Iran didn't even participate in talks in Pakistan.We are increasingly at the point where one of my favourite memes applies. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is trading mixed to start the session. The USDJPY is backing off its highs as it approaches the 2024 peak, with Japanese officials — including the Bank of Japan — growing increasingly concerned about currency weakness. That proximity to a key technical level, combined with policy sensitivity, is helping to stall the upside momentum.Elsewhere, the greenback is firmer against both the EUR and GBP, keeping the broader dollar tone supported.On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that negotiations with the new regime are making progress, but struck a more aggressive tone by warning the U.S. could “obliterate” key energy infrastructure — including Kharg Island, a critical oil export hub — and even desalination facilities. That rhetoric underscores that the game of chicken continues, with markets balancing diplomacy against escalation risk.Despite the tension, equities are leaning higher. The Dow is up around 300 points, the Nasdaq is higher by roughly 150, and the S&P is up about 40 points, suggesting investors are, for now, focusing on the prospect of progress rather than worst-case outcomes.In rates, yields are moving lower, with the 10-year down about 6.7 basis points and the 2-year off by roughly 5.1 basis points — a supportive backdrop for risk assets.Crude oil has backed off earlier highs, slipping from around $103.38 to near $101, as traders weigh supply risks against the evolving geopolitical narrative.In the video above, I break down the technical picture for the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — and outline the key levels that are defining bias, risk, and potential targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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Prior +1.9%HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.0%Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% priorFull report hereEverything as expected with limited market reaction. Destatis notes that energy prices are expected to be up 7.2% on the same month of the previous year. This is the first increase in energy prices since December 2023.The market is pricing in 64% chance of an ECB rate hike in April and a total of 75 bps of tightening by year-end (three hikes in total). Judging by the recent ECB commentary, they seem inclined to look through the March spike in inflation and lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if the US-Iran war were to persist. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPNice words followed by the usual threat of blowing up everything if a deal isn't reached. The algos reacted positively to the first line but the moves are now getting faded as this is likely another attempt to jawbone oil prices and stop the stock market bleeding.As a reminder, Trump's "ceasefire" expires on April 6, which is next Monday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.