Stock Benchmarks are attempting a fresh rebound, powered by the soft CPI printMarkets were on quite a rout but are now pushing to recoverExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The price action at the Market open wasn't the prettiest one, but Stock bulls haven't said their last words.After correcting by an average of -0.50%, Equities are rebounding amid widespread bullish contagion, supported by the pricing of a third Fed Cut in 2026. It was surprising to see such a pessimistic reaction after this morning's print, given that inflation is the only data warranting higher rates in the US, which are currently still in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Indeed, it is the softest inflation print in almost five years.Still, the price action isn't so straightforward with Participants rattled by the brutal corrections, deleveraging and repricings from early February.What could rattle investors is that the cooling is not widespread, with a few factors still rising from the impact of tariffs – Transportation services, which affect the entire pricing (with deliveries of goods) rose to their highest since Summer 2023. zoom_out_map Transportation Services Inflation – Courtesy of Zero Hedge, X In that regard, the US Supreme Court announced that it will issue its final decision on the legal status of the infamous Trump Tariffs on February 20, so keep that date on your agenda.Stocks hadn't reacted to yesterday's announcement from Israel's PM Netanyahu that the US would really prefer a deal with Iran, which brought with it a wave of premium-reducing in commodities, with Metals and Energy commodities retracing.Even Cryptos are rebounding in this morning's action, hence the widespread positive sentiment acted as a boon for Equities. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:45 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 13, 2026 Magnificent 7s and Credit Services (plagued by rising delinquencies) are the only laggards of this morning's action, while the rest are sighing in relief of the soft print.Dive into today’s session intraday charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:It's an everything rally after the CPI miss – Market ReactionsUS inflation slows, Fed may cut rates more than the market prices inChart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) potential recovery at 20-day MA support, bulls need to break above 49,940Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA tested its Pivotal 49,000 support in this morning's action, with bulls leaning heavily on the Psychological area for the ongoing rebound.Now testing its intraday Pivot region, any push above this shouldn't see much resistance to regain 50,000 – Watch the 200 Hour MA (49,730).Closing back above 50,000 this week should help sentiment throughout the rest of the month, so keep the level in check.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsJanuary ATH Key Pivot and 200-Hour MA 49,500 to 49,730 (testing)49,900 to 50,000 ResistanceIntraday Resistance 50,250 ATH Resistance 50,400 to 50,500Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsCPI Session lows 49,073Major Support – 49,000Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is showing quite a strong rebound in this morning's action, pointing to a break-retest formation – A bullish signal.Nevertheless, bulls will have to push towards the 25,000 Pivot to confirm the bounce, with the action stalling a bit towards the mid-session.A close above the psychological level should help the Tech sector for the weeks to come.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 24,857 – Bulls need to break for a higher push Key Pivot 25,000 to 25,25025,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (2H 200 MA)Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support Levels24,500 to 25,600 Key Support (morning rebound)February 5 lows 24,165October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – February 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is attempting a push above its pivot zone. Any break past 6,900 should easily lead the towards some new all-time highs.Watch sentiment towards the close and Monday's open!S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (Watch the 50H MA at 6,900!)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (Rejecting)Session top 6,996Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsSession bounce 6,789Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Dow pulls back after fresh highs: The Dow Jones hit a new all-time high near 50,335 but has since slipped back toward its 20-day moving average as broader US indices post week-to-date losses, led by renewed weakness in technology stocks.Tech drag, defensives hold firm: The sell-off was driven mainly by the tech sector, with Cisco plunging 12%, while defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples and Utilities outperformed.Recovery hinges on key levels: Holding above 49,265 support keeps the rebound scenario alive, with a break above 49,940 opening room to retest record highs; failure below support risks a deeper pullback toward the 50-day moving average near 48,900/48,710. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Dow Jones (DJIA) Forecast: Eyeing new all-time high as banks’ earnings loom”, published on 13 January 2026.Since our last analysis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to scale a fresh all-time high in February and hit our highlighted resistance of 50,265/50,335.US stock indices are the worst performers so far this week zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Global stock indices week-to-date performances as of 12 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The US stock market is on track to end the week on a weaker footing, where all four major US benchmark stock indices have recorded week-to-date losses as of Thursday, 12 February 2026; Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.4%), S&P 500 (-1.9%), Nasdaq 100 (-2.3%), and small-caps Russell 2000 (-2.7%) (see Fig. 1).Yesterday’s opening hours gains at the start of the US session evaporated and transformed into an almost broad-based selling across the board, except for the defensive sectors in the S&P 500 that bucked against the bearish trend; Consumer Staples (+1.4%) and Utilities (1.2%).The main catalyst for the weak performance has been renewed weakness seen in the technology stocks; the S&P 500 Technology sector was the worst performing sector on Thursday (-2.6%), dragged down by Cisco Systems, which plummeted by 12%, its worst single day drop in nearly four years, with its warning that higher memory costs will be adversely affect its profit margins.The short-term technical chart of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) is now showing some signs of stabilization after yesterday’s sell-off.Let's examine the short-term trajectory of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index and its supporting elements.Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Potential recovery at 20-day moving average zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 13 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Ratio chart of S&P Banks ETF over S&P 500 ETF as of 12 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 49,265 key short-term pivotal support on the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, and clearance above 49,940 upside trigger level increases the chances of the recovery to retest the current all-time high area of 50,530 printed on 10 February 2026, before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 50,695 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).On the flip side, a break below 49,265 invalidates the bullish scenario for a deeper minor corrective decline to extend further towards the next intermediate support at 48,900/48,710 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index has flashed out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region (see Fig. 2).The US financial sector, with a weightage of around 28%, is the largest weighted component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).The ratio chart of the SPDR S&P Bank ETF over the S&P 500 ETF has traded above a key ascending support since 17 November 2025, which suggests the medium-term outperformance of US banks remains intact, in turn, supporting a recovery on the US Wall Street CFD index at this juncture (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian equity markets follow Wall Street lower Asian and European markets were weighed down by a global tech sell-offThe Japanese yen was on track for its strongest weekly performance in nearly 15 monthsGold recovered from a low ahead of US CPI data, while oil prices continued their downward trend for a second consecutive weekSwiss annual inflation held steady at 0.1% in January, and consensus forecasts for the upcoming US CPI report suggest a "clean" 0.3% month-on-month rise for headline and core figures.Asian markets pulled back from record peaks on Friday as concerns over thinning profit margins in the technology industry weighed on major players like Apple. This tech-driven retreat prompted investors to pivot toward safe-haven bonds.The downward trend originated on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq Composite fell 2% following a disappointing quarterly report from Cisco Systems. Cisco saw its shares plunge 12% erasing roughly $40 billion in market value after rising memory chip costs caused its adjusted gross margins to miss analyst expectations.The volatility quickly spread to other industry leaders, notably Apple, which experienced a 5% decline. This marked the stock's sharpest one-day drop since April of the previous year, a period defined by market anxiety over President Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs.Consequently, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.1% on Friday, though it maintained a 3.7% gain for the week.Similarly, Japan’s Nikkei shed 1.3% despite ending the week up nearly 5%.The slump extended into Greater China, with Chinese blue chips falling 0.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index sliding 2.1%.Amidst the broader market turbulence, a report from the Financial Times suggested a potential shift in trade policy. Citing internal sources, the publication noted that President Trump is considering a reduction in certain steel and aluminum tariffs, offering a potential counterbalance to the prevailing tech-sector gloom.Most Read: Chart alert: Nikkei 225 bullish acceleration intact towards 60,000 in the first stepSwiss inflation holds steady Switzerland's annual inflation rate held steady in January at 0.1%, matching both December's figure and consensus forecasts.The data revealed a continued deflationary trend across several sectors, with prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing, footwear, and household services all remaining in negative territory compared to the previous year. Transport costs saw the most significant contraction, dropping 2% year-on-year.Meanwhile, price increases moderated for alcoholic beverages and tobacco, while costs for education remained flat and the information and communication sector saw its growth stall entirely at 0%.Offsetting these declines were accelerating costs in other categories, most notably housing and energy, which rose to 0.8% from a previous 0.4%.Price growth also gained momentum in the recreation, culture, and miscellaneous goods sectors.Despite these internal shifts, core inflation which strips out the volatile effects of unprocessed food and energy remained consistent at 0.5% for the second consecutive month.On a month-to-month basis, the broader Consumer Price Index edged down 0.1%, a slight dip following a stagnant reading in December.European Session - European shares eye cautious open European stock markets headed toward a tentative opening this Friday as a global sell-off in the technology sector raised fresh doubts about the long-term viability of massive AI investments.These concerns regarding AI-driven disruption extended beyond tech, creating a drag on the logistics, financial, and commercial real estate sectors. Amidst this cautious atmosphere, investors turned their attention to a heavy macroeconomic calendar, which included German wholesale prices, Spanish inflation figures, and a suite of Eurozone data covering GDP, employment, and trade.Despite the underlying tension, premarket futures for the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 remained relatively flat, suggesting a neutral start for the broader indices.The session was further complicated by a wave of corporate earnings, most notably from French beauty giant L'Oreal, which saw its shares tumble approximately 6% in early trading. This decline, marking the company's worst performance since at least October, followed fourth-quarter sales of 11.3 billion euros (roughly $13.4 billion) that narrowly missed analyst targets.The shortfall was primarily attributed to a stagnant recovery in North Asia, the global beauty industry’s second-largest market, where growth failed to meet expectations.Adding to the pressure, Deutsche Bank Research suggested that L'Oreal’s earnings growth is likely to decelerate in the immediate future.On the FX front, the Japanese yen was on track for its strongest weekly performance in nearly 15 months on Friday, capping a period of steady gains.The currency’s resurgence became the primary focal point of the foreign exchange market, defying early predictions that a landslide victory for Sanae Takaichi would trigger a deepening sell-off. Instead, the clear electoral mandate appears to have eased concerns regarding fiscal stability and political gridlock, encouraging investors to unwind "short" bets against the yen.By Friday, the yen was trading at 153.08 per dollar, and while it dipped slightly in the final session, it remained poised for a 2.7% weekly advance, its most significant climb since November 2024.This strength was mirrored across other major pairs, with the yen set for a 2.3% weekly jump against the euro and a 2.7% rise against the British pound.In the broader currency market, the euro and sterling saw modest declines, with the euro trading at $1.1863 and the pound easing to $1.3613.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar faced a 0.3% daily dip to $0.7072, though it remained on course for a weekly gain of nearly 0.9%. The Aussie’s recent resilience has been supported by a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which recently implemented a rate hike to combat persistent inflation.Overall, the US dollar index stood slightly higher at 97.01 on Friday but was still tracking toward a 0.7% loss for the week as global investors pivoted toward the rebounding yen and other high-yielding assets.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices edged higher on Friday, mounting a recovery from a nearly one-week low as the market shifted its focus to impending US inflation data.This rebound follows a volatile week where a string of robust labor market reports pressured the Federal Reserve to reconsider the timing of potential interest rate cuts, cooling the enthusiasm for non-yielding assets.Spot gold rose 0.6% to reach $4,949.99 per ounce, while US gold futures for April delivery climbed 0.4% to $4,968.0. Despite this intraday bounce, the metal remains down slightly for the week after a dramatic 3% plunge on Thursday, which saw prices crash through the psychological $5,000 support level amid a broader liquidation triggered by an equities rout.The recovery was mirrored across the precious metals complex, with silver leading the charge by gaining 1.5% to trade at $76.31 per ounce. While silver managed to claw back some of the staggering 11% loss it suffered during Thursday’s sell-off, it is still on track to finish the week over 2% lower.In the PGM sector, spot platinum increased by 0.9% to $2,018.44 per ounce and palladium surged 2.2% to $1,652.31.However, both metals are likely to end the week in negative territory as investors remain cautious, balancing long-term central bank demand against the immediate impact of a stronger US dollar and shifting interest rate expectations.Oil prices continued their downward trend on Friday, positioning benchmarks for a second consecutive weekly loss as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing.Market anxiety regarding a potential conflict between the US and Iran which could have severely disrupted global supplies began to dissipate, pulling prices lower.Brent crude futures edged down to $67.40 per barrel, following a significant 2.7% drop in the previous session, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $62.71.For the week, Brent is on track for a 0.8% decline, with WTI trailing slightly further behind at a 1.1% loss.In addition to shifting geopolitical risks, the market is adjusting to a significant influx of supply from South America. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright reported on Thursday that American-controlled oil sales from Venezuela have already exceeded $1 billion since the capture of President Nicolás Maduro in January. Wright projected that these operations are set to generate an additional $5 billion over the coming months as the US rehabilitates Venezuela's energy infrastructure.This surge in anticipated supply, combined with a recent International Energy Agency report forecasting weaker global demand, has created a bearish environment for crude as the trading week concludes.Read More:Get ready for CPI – US Inflation PreviewBreaking News: UK GDP underwhelms with 0.1% growth in Q4, FTSE 100 slips & GBP/USD advancesChart alert: Gold rally faces risk of exhaustion below $5,170Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK data with all high impact data already released.The US session looks set to be a bumpy one after yesterday's selloff with inflation data on deck.Today’s US inflation report is expected to have a more muted impact on the market compared to Wednesday's payroll data, as the Federal Reserve’s current stance prioritizes labor market health over price stability.Consensus forecasts suggest a "clean" January print with headline and core CPI both rising 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% annually. Such a result would likely validate the market’s recent hawkish shift in Fed expectations, reinforcing the view that the US dollar is currently undervalued in the short term.While this technical undervaluation suggests a potential upside for the greenback, recent price action indicates that investors are still eager to sell into any dollar rallies, making a sustained recovery difficult.However, the dollar has found some support as a safe-haven asset during the recent volatility in the tech sector. This restoration of its protective status, combined with a patient Federal Reserve, suggests the dollar may remain resilient even if major rallies are capped by persistent bearish sentiment. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index continues to hold comfortably above the 100-day MA.Having printed fresh highs yesterday morning around the 10550 handle the index has seen a notable pullback.For now though, bulls remain firmly in control.Only a four-hour candle close below the higher low swing point at 10387 would lead to a change in structure and could lead me to reevaluate my outlook.Immediate support rests at 10460 before the swing low at 10387 comes into focus.Resistance to the upside at 10528 needs to be cleared if bulls are to make a run for the daily and all-time highs at 10550.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, February 13, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The trading world awaits the final piece to this week's US economic puzzle, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) releasing tomorrow at 8:30 A.M. (ET).After a cold Retail Sales (0% vs 0.4% exp) and a surprisingly strong Non-Farm Payrolls report (130K vs 70K exp), the third wave of high-tier US data should provide the answers for early 2026 rate cut pricing (and if they are even still a thing).The Federal Reserve had pivoted within its dual mandate, putting less emphasis on the inflation mandate and prioritizing a visibly weakening labor market, to justify the streak of 25 bps cuts between September and December 2025, from 4.50% to the current 3.75%.Ahead of these cuts, the Fed held a frustrating pause (at least frustrating for President Trump) since December 2024.After the massive -140K drop in October, Non-Farm Payrolls rebounded through a gradual recovery and haven't reported a figure below +40K since. Hence, communications from the Fed quickly turned back to inflation. Core CPI, which excludes volatile Energy and Food prices from the headline Index, remained much closer to 3% than the 2% mandate throughout 2025, with the effects of the infamous Trump Tariffs delaying post-COVID inflation drops further (compared to what was seen in Canada, for example). And that hasn't sat well with the Fed. zoom_out_map US Core Inflation (Sticky Price Index) since 2016 – Source: FRED Expectations for tomorrow's report zoom_out_map US Inflation Data expectations – MarketPulse Economic Calendar Tomorrow's report should bring further clarity to the US CPI releases, which had previously been obscured by the longest-ever Government shutdown in October, which prevented precise data collection.Both the Headline and Core CPI are expected to release at +0.3% m/m, taking the year-over-year data to 2.5% for both.Comforting for the Fed? Maybe, but this release should also be affected by last year's high-base effect (January 2025 Core CPI was at 3.1%!), and hence provide more sensitivity to any beat.Producer Prices tend to be reflected in CPI between 3 and 6 months after their rise, but the more lasting effects may even take more than a year. For those who forgot, PPI sent out a major warning about tariffs in July 2025: We are entering the final periods to observe significant effects from the Trump Policies, and the Fed will be watching closely. It has a few of the most hawkish regional members on the voting chairs in 2026 (Hammack and Logan), so thresholds for cuts will be high.Markets are at a sensitive inflexion point, with Equities still at or very close to their all-time highs (despite huge routs in the Tech and Software Sectors) and extreme trends looking fragile, as seen this morning with the large drops in Gold and Silver.If things turn sour, Stocks and Metal Markets could quickly see a Crypto-like bear market for the foreseeable future, as Participants will be forced to deleverage.Let's discover reactions to see why.Reactions Scenarios The following FOMC Rate Decision will be announced on March 18 and is currently priced at only 8% (from 23% pre-NFP), leaving little room for a correction at this meeting.However, there are still about two cuts fully priced in for the rest of the year.Markets are impossible to predict fully; hence, these scenarios could elicit quite different reactions.As-expected This would kick the can down the road for policy pricing, being the final influent data release before February 27 (PPI). Stock Indexes:An as-expected data will send Stock Markets to a quick test of their recent all-time highs, but the effect should slow down throughout the session. After the data, expect Indexes to keep consolidating at their highs (48,000 to 50,000 for the DJIA) in the waiting for more clarity.Metals:After today's large drop, metals should continue seeing progressive outflows – Silver back to $70 and Gold hanging around $4,200 to $4,400Cryptos:Cryptos should rally initially but the rise shouldn't be long-lasted. It could at least prevent a consistent drop lower, back to a more rangebound action in Bitcoin (between $70,000 to $80,000).US Dollar:Initial push lower but should stabilize above 2026 lows before reverting higher and maintain its rangebound trajectory.Rate Cut pricings:The March meeting should see its pricing rise back towards 20%. Further changes will be contingent for a larger rise depending on the state of Markets until future data lands (if Stocks dip strongly, expect rate cut odds to rise)Inflation beats This is the worst case scenario for all assets which have rallied throughout the 2025 Debasement Trade.Stocks, Metals and Cryptos should all drop lower, with short-end yields rising strongly in a bear flattening curve, profiting to the US Dollar (rallying back to at least 98.00).The extent of the moves will depend on how strong the beat is. +0.1% to expectations should see modest moves, but anything above 0.3% will see large repricings.Expect to only see one more cut priced in for 2026 in that scenario.Inflation misses This is what Markets are salivating for the most.Stock Indexes should all rally to some new all-time highs, with the Dow Jones potentially testing 51,000.Nasdaq should also retest its 26,200 and even extend further.The US Dollar will see a shift drop to some new 2026 lows as pricing for a March meeting cut can rise to above 50%.Cryptos and Metals should also see a decent rebound in that event, profiting from the drop in the US Dollar. Both asset classes would however need a significant drop in CPI to head back to their all-time highs, with both of their Markets troubled by pessimistic sentiment and positioning.After swift rises, the action should settle, with leverage and positioning still elevated. Nevertheless, expect the recent descending trends to cease and sentiment ease.The extent of such reactions of course depends on how large the miss is. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals just saw immense outflows with Gold dipping to $4,900 and Silver coming back to $76, respectively down 2.75% and 10% on the session!In Markets, a "fat finger" happens when gigantic liquidation or buy orders happen without any news to back-up the newfound volatility. But as I am about to publish this piece, some news just released.Update: The broad selloff seems to be from Israel's PM Netanyahu confirming that the US President Trump would prefer seeking a deal with Iran, taking out some elevated risk-premiums in the commodities. It was surprising to see metals hold yesterday's hawkish Non-farm payrolls so well, with the large pricing out of Fed Cuts through 2026 after the data.Oil is also dumping back to below $63, down 3.50% on the session.Mid-Session Metals Market picture – Looking ugly zoom_out_map Metals Market daily performance (12:00) – Courtesy of Finviz Gold stumbles by 3.60% zoom_out_map XAU/USD 30M Chart – Source: TradingView, February 12, 2026 Gold saw a huge liquidation candle in the last 30 minutes, with dip-buyers attempting to bring the metal back above $5,000 which will now stand as key technical indicator for appetite.Explore our latest Gold analysis right here:Chart alert: Gold rally faces risk of exhaustion below $5,170Silver dips below $76 zoom_out_map XAG/USD 30M Chart – Source: TradingView, February 12, 2026 Silver isn't looking much better, failing to breach its $84 Pivotal resistance.Any session close below $76 can trigger further downside movement. Unlike Gold, Silver is struggling to rebound after the flash sale.Our latest Analysis for XAG/USD: Silver (XAG/USD) tests $80 ahead of NFP – What's next?Keep a close eye on such flows ahead of tomorrow's CPI report which could accelerate such outflows on a data beat! Preparation for the Inflation data coming up this afternoon.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The UK economy grew by a lackluster 0.1% in Q4 2025, missing the 0.2% forecast.The performance was marked by a strong rebound in production (+1.2%) but neutralized by a significant contraction in construction (-2.1%).The dominant services sector flatlined (zero growth) for a third consecutive month, posing a major concern for the government's growth targets.The initial market reaction was mixed, with the FTSE 100 pulling back and GBP/USD eyeing a move higher.Most Read: USD/JPY Outlook: Momentum bearish, but can the US dollar find support on strong jobs data?Preliminary data from the ONS indicates that the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025, maintaining the same growth rate as the third quarter but falling just short of the 0.2% forecast by analysts. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) This sluggish performance was marked by a significant divergence across sectors. The production industry provided a strong tailwind, surging 1.2% to recover from a previous decline, with manufacturing specifically rising 0.9% as automotive production stabilized following a major cyber disruption in August.However, these gains were largely neutralized by a flatlining services sector, where business-facing activities stalled and consumer-facing services grew by a marginal 0.2%.Furthermore, the construction sector acted as a significant drag on the economy, contracting by 2.1% and reversing its modest growth from the prior period.Contributions to three-month GDP growth, December 2024 to December 2025, UK zoom_out_map Source: ONS The initial market reaction Markets seemed to shrug off the lackluster data with both GBP/USD and the FTSE 100 on the offensive this morning.The FTSE 100 has since fallen around 50 points from the fresh all-time highs while GBP/USD eyes a move higher in the European session.GBP/USD movement may be driven in part by the US dollar and its performance today ahead of the CPI data tomorrow.GBP/USD - FTSE 100 15M Chart, February 12, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com The big picture When examining the broader economic landscape, the UK's GDP grew by 1.0% in the final quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This steady annual performance was characterized by balanced contributions across the board, with both the services and production sectors expanding by 1.0%, while construction saw a more modest increase of 0.2%.By the end of the year, December 2025 specifically showed a 0.7% improvement in economic output over the previous December, signaling a consistent, albeit measured, upward trend.Taking the full year into account, the UK economy expanded by 1.3% in 2025 relative to 2024. This growth was primarily fueled by a 1.4% rise in services and a robust 1.8% increase in construction output.Notably, the production sector returned to positive territory with a 0.2% increase, marking its first year of annual growth since 2021. Overall, these figures suggest a year of gradual recovery and the breaking of a multi-year stagnation in industrial output.Is the lack of service sector growth a concern? The services sector remained stagnant in the final quarter of 2025, recording zero growth in the three months leading up to December compared to the previous quarter.This flat performance marks a continued trend of inertia, as recent data revisions have erased previously reported gains; growth for the periods ending in both October and November was adjusted downward to 0.0%.Consequently, this latest update confirms a third consecutive month of stagnation for the UK's dominant economic sector on a rolling three-month basis.While "zero growth" sounds alarming for a sector that makes up roughly 80% of the UK economy, the situation has been attributed to a mix of structural concern and temporary "Budget indigestion."It does remain a concern though with the UK so dependent on services, the economy cannot achieve meaningful growth if this sector is flat. In Q4, the overall GDP only managed a tiny 0.1% increase, and that was largely thanks to a rebound in manufacturing.One of the factors playing a role is the November 2025 budget. The increase in National Insurance contributions for employers and the rise in the minimum wage caused many service-based firms to freeze hiring and investment as they recalculated their costs.In conclusion It is a significant concern for the government's growth targets, as it shows the economy is currently walking a tightrope. However many analysts remain optimistic as the early 2026 data suggests it may be a "stumble" rather than a "fall."Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 12 A reality check just hit the markets: things aren't going to be easy for investors, traders, or benchmarks moving forward.The catalyst was a headline regarding Israeli PM Netanyahu's return from the US after meeting President Trump. The discussions point toward renewed diplomacy between the US and Iran, signaling potential de-escalation.Markets, which had priced in a decent risk premium, reacted swiftly. Commodities unwound their war trade positions: Gold dipped 3.50% to break back below $5,000, Silver plunged over 10% to trade under $75, and Oil closed below $63. While Crude is still above its pre-rally level of $58, the immediate panic bid has evaporated. However, skepticism remains. Despite the diplomatic overtures, the US confirmed today it is deploying another warship to the Middle East, suggesting this story is far from over.Surprisingly, stocks and crypto found no comfort in the de-escalation headlines. Instead, the selloff in Tech, Software, and Communications is spreading to the broader economy. AI replacement fears are now affecting valuations in sectors previously thought safe from disruption—Farming, Real Estate, Financials, and even specialized Freight are all getting hammered as investors reassess their longevity in an automated world.US Benchmarks have fallen between 1.30% for the DJIA to around 2% for Nasdaq. Not a pretty picture.With participants deleveraging swiftly ahead of tomorrow's CPI data, the consequences are harsh. Bonds were the only asset class to rally today as capital fled to safety.Finally, a notable pattern is emerging: Thursdays are becoming synonymous with harsh bearish volatility in 2026. Keep a close eye on this trend as we move deeper into the quarter. Read More:Get ready for CPI – US Inflation PreviewBreaking: The Metals Market – Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) flash crashChart alert: Gold rally faces risk of exhaustion below $5,170 zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 12, 2026 The bloodbath continues despite the better peace news. Tomorrow will surely see major repricings in the Stock Markets, and definitely won't be pretty if Inflation comes with a beat.Only a very soft print will help the trading at times like these.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today was a real bloodbath for Markets, with everything tumbling against the Bonds and the US Dollar. This is a clear deleveraging picture unfolding in front of our eyes. Let's see if this extends after tomorrow's release.The weekly close will be very key!A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, February 12, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's FX movement was relatively muted compared to what Markets have been getting used to since 2026. The Aussie Dollar and other risk-on currencies got hit by the disastrous drops in commodities and Stock Markets, while the traditional safe-haven monies (CHF, JPY) loved it.A look at Economic data releasing throughout tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Thursday evening session: Focus on NZ data, particularly RBNZ inflation expectations — a key input for NZD direction after its recent rise and today's drop. Kiwi traders should also not forget NZ PMI. The US evening session features Fed speakers (Logan, Miran), which could keep the USD reactive. Traders will listen closely to Logan particularly as she is one of the most hawkish Fed voters this year.Friday is preparing to be a banger: Eurozone GDP (prelim) and employment data will act as a key test for the Euro, alongside comments from ECB’s De Guindos and BoE’s Pill.The main event however is US CPI. Both headline and core prints will drive Fed expectations and Market volatility, particularly after today's volatile session. A hotter print supports will take out this year's priced in cuts even Further. Don't forget to check out our preview right here!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 11 The puzzle is still far from solved, and future rate cuts are now compromised, if anything.This morning's Non-Farm Payrolls release sent a hawkish warning to a Market that had been taking it relatively easy with this year's pricing. Even with the newly nominated Fed Chair, a path to lower rates in the US won't be easy, given the strong growth and a seemingly not-worsening labor picture.Looking back at the Federal Reserve's communications throughout last year's cuts, they were all justified by a softening US Employment Market, but looking at public BLS data, the situation isn't worsening much further. zoom_out_map US Employment since 2022 – Source: FRED US inflation remains closer to 3% than 2%, and with the more hawkish Regional Presidents voting this year, taking out cuts at the March and June meetings was an easy decision for rates traders. The final test of this week's high-tier releases will take place on Friday (CPI), with participants slowly turning back to economic data clues for Market direction.Markets have remained in a tight range after this morning's conflicting NFP report, with US Indexes correcting slightly from their early morning gains, closing unchanged; Metals remaining at key levels ($5,100 for Gold, $84 for Silver); yields rising; and the US Dollar profiting from the repricing.Elsewhere, US President Trump mentioned his preference for a deal with Iran to reduce uncertainty in Markets, which holds the highest importance in Trump's eyes. Oil lost some of its gains after the comments, particularly as it coincided with a significant rise in US inventory levels, but it still holds its upward channel. The energy commodity is now back above $65. Read More:Is the US Labor Market really holding well? – North American Mid-Week Market updateHawkish NFP sends Stocks lower – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookUSD/JPY Outlook: Momentum bearish, but can the US dollar find support on strong jobs data? zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 11, 2026 Today's Stock Market picture did not show any particular trend except for Nvidia which bounced back to positive as the session went and Defensive/Energy stocks still attracting the most inflows to pursue last week's trend.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Except for metals remaining strong within their newly established range, the Market is now looking for any major trend to emerge. Stocks are remaining rangebound, Oil is trending higher but with erraticity and the US Dollar remains at the lows of its 8-month consolidation.Things will surely change and get more volatile towards the end of the week (particularly with CPI which I can't emphasize enough!)A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, February 11, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs JPY is extending its huge reversal against its peers, getting joined by another wave of strength in the Australian Dollar.The latter really seems to be taking the front spot for FX performance in 2026 and with the RBA being the only Central Bank back to hiking rates, this trend should continue until data tones down.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar for February 11, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Except for UK GDP and Jobless Claims, tomorrow should be quite a snoozer as traders get ready for Friday's US CPI reportSafe Trades and as per usual, keep a close eye on Middle East headlines and flows!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global tradersTraders are moving beyond early 2026's Trump volatility back towards economic data, and it isn't less confusingUS assets and the Dollar are resilient despite pessimistic sentiment Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Volatility has (relatively) come down from what Traders have been used to since the start of the year.Without many new regime-changing geopolitical catalysts, Markets are slowly getting back to their usual rhythm. Except for some renewed policies to reduce reliance on the US Dollar and Treasuries, not much has changed, and the Greenback is now way off of its 95.55 lows.The Greenland Crisis did not develop into a catastrophe, and developments in Iran remain muted (at least for now – Keep a close eye on any news coming from the US-Iran talks).Hence, participants are now turning back to economic data amid the ever-moving economic and financial puzzle of the US economy.And the puzzle isn't an easy one to solve.Last week sent out a few warnings about a weakening Labor picture for the US through a three-piece combo: weaker ADP Private payrolls, Jobless Claims erasing their progress made through December, and another scary Challenger layoffs report, indicating the highest pace of firing for January since 2009.But this morning actually reversed the trend, with Non Farm Payrolls surprising massively to the upside (+130K vs 70K exp), sending out conflicting signals to traders. In any case, they will only be able to place decisive orders after Friday's CPI release (8:30 A.M.).Discarding the gigantic downward -858K revisions in NFP since March 2025, the US curve actually took out some of the premium pricing for Fed Cuts throughout the year, particularly during the mid-2026 meetings. The picture will be clearer at the end of the week.On the Northern Border, the Bank of Canada just released its minutes, adding further clarity on the current policy stance, seen as more "stimulative side" at 2.25%, providing a floor for current rates. The committee seems to appreciate that the Core inflation measure has eased further to 2.5% despite supply chain restructuring post-tariffs. Expect to learn more about the issue next Tuesday, when the Canadian CPI is released.Nevertheless, the BoC expects slow growth (1.1% GDP expected in end 2026), so traders haven't yet assessed any hawkish turn in the Central Bank's policy – something to monitor as more 2026 data is released.The US-Canada-Mexico agreement (USMCA) remains a potential source of volatility among the North American economies. Get access to the detailed minutes right here. Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Hawkish NFP sends Stocks lower – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookUSD/JPY Outlook: Momentum bearish, but can the US dollar find support on strong jobs data?NFP surprises to the upside – Market ReactionsNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Except for the Dow Jones reaching the 50,000 milestone last Friday, attention has diverted away from US Equities which are maintaining a broadly rangebound trajectory.Canada on the other hand is demarcating itself from its North American peers, up 2.15% since last Wednesday. The real impressive performance however comes from the Land of the Rising Sun, with the Tokyo Index up above 6% (!!!) after Takaichi's landslide victory in Sunday's snap elections.Dollar Index 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has woken up from its tumble at the beginning of the week, particularly after this morning's beat in the NFP data and the consequent pricing out of cuts.At the lows of its higher timeframe 8-month long consolidation, technicals point to higher chances of a rebound from here but will be highly contingent on Friday's CPI report. Even an as-expected number would precede a rebound in the Greenback. Only a decisive miss would push for further downside in that aspect.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels97.30 4H MA 50August Range Bull/Bear High Timeframe Pivot 97.40 to 97.6098.00 Key Resistance (+/- 100 pips)Pre-Greenland Resistance 99.25 to 99.50Support Levels2025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Daily lows 96.4995.50 to 95.70 Flash-crash Support95.55 Trump-Crash Lows94.70 to 95.00 Psychological level93.00 Next Main SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, February 11, 2026 - Source: TradingView The USD lost some of its post-Warsh nomination gains, particularly against the Japanese Yen which is now ongoing some spectacular reversal, pushed higher by profit-taking and FX Intervention fears.The Dollar is now up only against the GBP, but looking to regain some advantage after NFP.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, February 11, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Loonie performance is still quite muted, situated right in the middle of the FX board since early 2026 in the waiting for further clues on the Canadian economy and/or the BoC.Still, with Oil rebounding and now stabilizing above $60, the CAD should see a progressive appetite barring any major soft release.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView After very volatile movement in the past 1.5 years, the North American major pair is stabilizing.Now holding a large range from 1.35 to 1.3730, USD/CAD isn't looking for further downside anymore. Look for the range to hold for the time being, barring any major economic or geopolitical period – Caddie has a preference for sideways when volatility tones down. Currently at the low of this range, upside looks favored. Still, watch out for US CPI which can change the picture quite drastically.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.3630 to 1.3660 Mid-Range Pivot1.3750 Pivotal Resistance1.38 Key ResistanceMajor Resistance 1.3870 to 1.39 (January highs)Support Levels2025 Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36 (Current bounce)October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.351.3480 USD-Crash lowsUS and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Keep close attention to Friday's US Inflation number!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (11/02/2026): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart digest the latest US NFP numbers, released unusually on a Wednesday. Otherwise, we discuss the latest on FX, especially regarding the US dollar and Japanese yen, as well as world equities and crypto. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks give up their early gains as traders price out cuts after the strong Non-Farm Payrolls reportMarkets face yet another test of their recent highs, with the Dow Jones retesting the 50,000 handleExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Recent Non-Farm Payrolls have been tricky to trade, with the picture in the US labor market confirming a strengthening trend in the latest report this morning.The tricky part, however, is that last week's Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs, and ADP reports all corroborated a contradictory (weakening) view, which generally sends conflicting signals to the latest rounds of BLS data.Since firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in August, reports haven't looked weak; they've just been subject to significant revisions. And despite the -858K downward revisions to last year's data, as revealed this morning, Participants are now focusing on the hawkish impact of the Unemployment Rate (UE) easing back to 4.3%. The UE Rate will now be at the forefront of what traders are watching to assess the state of the US Jobs market.With the final piece of the US data puzzle, the CPI report (8:30 A.M.), which will be revealed this Friday, pricing for upcoming Fed Meetings will have significant potential for changes. zoom_out_map Market-Implied Fed Funds rate change – Source: FedWatch Tool. February 11, 2026. As a matter of fact, the June meeting odds went from close to 100% before the data to around 60% afterward. The March meeting progressively corrected from 22% to only 9%, with the Yield curve bear flattening (indicating lower odds of imminent cuts).Quite a turnaround, which won't please Stock Markets, following a swift rebound from the past week's tumbles.Pre-open futures trading was strong after the NFP release, but quickly turned around shortly after the Bell. Now back to unchanged on the session, Indexes are sending confusing signals to traders, but remain at key intersections that will be essential to monitor ahead of upcoming trading.Defensive stocks remain of relative interest against Tech stocks in the daily heatmap, pulling flows towards Producer Manufacturing, Farming, and Energy stocks on top yet again. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:54 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 11, 2026 Dive into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.Note: Iran developments remain one of the largest tail risk for volatility, hence as participants turn their attention away, keep a close eye on any breaking news. Read More:NFP surprises to the upside – Market ReactionsUSD/JPY Outlook: Momentum bearish, but can the US dollar find support on strong jobs data?Markets Today: Markets digest Chinese inflation, AI fears continue, Gold holds high ground as NFP loomsDow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is showing weakening signs after this morning's fakeout higher.Despite the rebound in the past hour and remaining above 50,000 (High-importance level), the selloff brought the action back below this session's pivotal resistance (50,250).Now showing an imminent break-retest price action, an interesting selling setup could make sense, particularly after the hawkish repricing which could be weighing on Stocks until Friday's CPI.In the event of a selloff, look for reactions at the 49,500 pivotal support. Any break below will take the Index back to its 48,000 to 50,000 range.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Resistance 50,250 (rejecting)Potential minor resistance 50,400 to 50,500Index All-Time highs 50,512Support Levels49,900 to 50,000 Bull/bear Momentum PivotJanuary ATH Resistance now Pivotal Support 49,500 to 49,700Major Support – 49,000Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is also sending worrying signs ahead by failing to breach its Key 25,500 Resistance, with sellers leaning on the 2H 200-MA.Traders will need to watch closely to the 25,000 Psychological level. Moving back below confirms a more bearish price action ahead of CPI.Bouncing on the level however hints at a 25,000 to 25,500 tight consolidation.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (2H 200 MA)Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMinor Support now Pivot 25,000 Key test (50 MA at 25,090 watch if breakj)24,500 to 25,600 Key SupportFebruary 5 lows 24,165October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – February 11, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite bouncing on its 50 and 200-Moving averages, the price action is showing meaningful rejection of the 7,000 key figure.The key MAs will act as final support for the bull case towards new all-time highs. Any breach of the 6,916 session lows should see continuation towards a retest of the 6,800 range support.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPrevious ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (Rejecting)Session top 6,996Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support Levels6,920 Session lows and 2H MA 50/200 (key barometer)Pivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bullish momentum reinforced by politics: The Nikkei 225 extended its rally from the 6 February reversal low, supported by PM Takaichi’s snap election victory and a decisive parliamentary supermajority, making it the top-performing major global index over the past two sessions (+2.3%).Stronger yen not derailing equities: Despite USD/JPY falling on intervention fears, Japanese equities held firm. Domestically focused stocks are outperforming exporters, suggesting a stronger JPY is boosting consumer confidence and supporting internal demand.Acceleration phase intact toward 60,000: Technically, the short-term uptrend remains valid above 56,990 support, with upside targets at 58,932, 59,884, and 60,833–61,215. Momentum indicators continue to support further gains unless key support breaks. The Nikkei 225 has continued to bask in the bullish limelight since last Friday, 6 February 2026’s minor bullish reversal low of 52,956, reinforced by the results of Japan’s lower house parliament snap election held on Sunday, 8 February 2026.Incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s coalition party has managed to score a stunning victory in the snap election, surpassing the two-thirds majority of 310 seats, with Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party winning 316 seats in the 465-seat lower house.Nikkei 225 is the top performer among global stock markets over the past two days zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Global stock market indices with USD/JPY from 9 Feb to 10 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Since the start of the week till Tuesday, 10 February 2026, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the top-performing major global stock with a positive return of 2.3%, surpassing the major US stock indices; Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), S&P 500 (-0.3%), Russell 2000 (-0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 (-0.6%) (see Fig. 1).Interestingly, the renewed strength in the Japanese yen, where the USD/JPY shed -1% in the past two sessions due to fears of US-Japan joint intervention, is not having a negative feedback loop impact on the Nikkei 225.Japan’s equities with high domestic exposure are outperforming exporters zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Relative performance of Nikkei 225 Domestic Exposure against Global Exposure as of 10 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) A stronger JPY is likely to negate the current higher cost-of-living squeeze in Japan, in turn, further boosting consumer confidence, which leads to an increase in domestic spending.Within the Nikkei 225, stocks with a higher reliance on domestic Japanese sales are outperforming export-heavy names, particularly technology equipment and automobile manufacturers with greater overseas exposure.Since 4 February 2026, the Nikkei 225 Domestic Exposure 50 Index (domestic sales) has outperformed the Nikkei 225 Global Exposure 50 Index (international sales), where its ratio increased to 0.76 on Tuesday, 10 February 2026, and broke above a 5-month descending resistance (see Fig. 2).Hence, this counterintuitive observation suggests that a stronger Japanese yen is likely to be playing a supportive role at this juncture to maintain the bullish trend in the Japanese stock market (Nikkei 225).Let's now look at the technical chart of Japan CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) to decipher its short-term trajectory and key levels to watch.Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Minor bullish acceleration intact since 6 February zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 11 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 56,990 short-term pivotal support on the Japan 225 CFD index for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 58,932, 59,884, and 60.833/61,215 (Fibonacci extensions clusters).On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 56,990 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective pull-back towards the next intermediate support at 56,096, and below it risks a deeper slide to retest 55,111/54,790 (the former range resistance from 14 January to 4 February 2026).Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias The hourly RSI momentum indicator has so far managed to hold at its intermediate support at around the 50 level after it exited from its overbought region on Tuesday, 10 February 2026. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 10 Today's session was, as expected ahead of tomorrow's quintessential Non-Farm Payrolls release, a relative snoozer.As warned in our previous session's Wrap, it would have been surprising to see continuous flows ahead of what could be the most important Labor release since August 2025.A few warning signs had been sent by the private and weekly jobs data received throughout last week, and traders surely reduced their short-term long and short positioning to the minimum when looking at today's low-volatility session.Ranges for tomorrow's release are huge, but except for a -10K extreme, analysts and banks found a consensus for a below 100K release (official consensus at 70K).Looking at Banks predictions doesn't infer too much. However, it allows to form tail-risk scenarios.If the actual answer is below 10K, except swift repricing across assets and rate cut pricings.Any beat above 140K would surely drop all pricings for cuts in a sweep.Equities did not maintain their broad gains, confirming the thesis of short-covering ahead of the data. The Dow Jones remains above 50,000, sending signs of confidence for the data, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 gave up a small part of their gains.Metals have also remained in a range, well above their past week lows but also failing to provide a clear momentum higher. Tomorrow's session close will be very important for the next phase. Read More:Rout in the US Dollar – A warning for Non-Farm Payrolls?NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesTech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookSilver (XAG/USD) tests $80 ahead of NFP – What's next?Altcoins struggle to bounce – ETH, XRP and SOL Outlook zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 10, 2026 The daily heatmap shouts slow-grinds and profit-takings ahead of NFP. Nothing much to see here.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView A very muted profit-taking session around asset classes – Only US Treasuries showed some interest with them rising again in today's session after the much softer retail sales.The key test will be tomorrow.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, February 10, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The Japanese Yen is really showing quite a reversal after Takaichi's snap election wins. Traders express their concerns for the intervention threat, but this could also largely be some profit-taking flows turning into a new trend lower.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar for February 11, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Traders are getting ready for the most important Non-Farm Payrolls report in a while. Get ready for immense reactions, particularly if it sends a negative report!Don't forget to check out our NFP Preview right here.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East headlines and flows!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

With Bitcoin remaining below $70,000, altcoins struggle to find momentumDrifting lower, the Cryptocurrency market is still awaiting for a meaningful bounceObserving technical analysis for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana Cryptos have bounced back quite swiftly since their rout last week.Nevertheless, the price action and sentiment around the digital assets class remain weak, looking for a spot to consolidate in peace.Indeed, when such dramatic outflows occur, even in traditional asset classes such as equities, bonds, or metals, participants take their time before regaining confidence and actually show meaningful buying interest.A crisis of belief often translates into slow, gradual drifts lower, the time required for participants to get flat, retire algorithms, and, overall, for market sentiment to return to a more neutral level.Does it mean we won't see any more flash crashes or value halvings? It is tough to say in such unpredictable times.What is certain is that the most leveraged classes of investors are backing off, allowing funding spreads to narrow and open interest to return to non-speculative levels, where movement can be more stable. zoom_out_map Current Bitcoin and BTC Open Interest – Source: TradingView. February 10, 2026 An argument could be that, despite being back to Liberation day Open interest levels, longs and shorts can still correct further – Currently at around $20B, the action looks poised for further deleveraging ahead. Open interests at $10B would be considered low.While big players reduce their positions amid high volatility and lower performance, it can be interesting to spot projects that can be accumulated slowly as valuations correct from their relative extremes.For a guide on gradually accumulating cryptocurrencies, I invite you to check out our DCA investing guide. It is never wise to call for a bottom while the Market still doesn't know where to head, but in such times, planning and taking calculated risks help investors and traders to reduce the uncertainty to find opportunities.By the way, before Markets form absolute bottoms, it is common to see a very harsh catalyst that isn’t followed with much selling, indicating that participants are turning the page on a bear trend. We haven't had this catalyst yet; keep a close eye on fresh developments, news, and how they interact with Crypto sentiment to stay ahead of headlines and fear. zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 10, 2026 The total Market Cap is still stuck in a downward channel – Bouncing from its lows last Friday still the action looks very timid.Let's dive right into the Daily Charts and technical levels for Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL). Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) tests $80 ahead of NFP – What's next?The Oil Tug-of-War: Geopolitics vs. Global glut continues. Will bulls or bears prevail?NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesTech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookThe Current Session in Cryptos zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – February 9, 2026 (15:17). Source: FInviz Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ethereum is attempting to find an equilibrium price after bouncing at its $1,750 Major 2025 support.Now below its $2,100 to $2,300 support, the key level now acts as an important momentum pivot level. Without many signs of life, the action can consolidate between $1,385 to $2,100 for the period to come.However, any session close above the Pivot zone could trigger a renewed interest in the Crypto.And as always, when you see interest in ETH, expect interest to follow across the entire crypto space (particularly in the project altcoins – memecoins have their own, more erratic, signals of rallying).Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$1,650 to $1,750 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support2025 Bottom Support $1,380 to $1,5002025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$2,100 to $2,300 June War support now Key Pivot$2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now minor Resistance$3,000 to $3,200 December resistance$3,500 (+/- $50) Key Resistance$4,950 Current new All-time highsRipple (XRP) 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ripple (XRP) Daily Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ripple got sold off harshly in the past week, reaching $1.10 lows as liquidations accelerated in the Top 4 Market Cap.Since, XRP recovered well but is poised for a similar destiny as its older brother Ether. Bulls will need to push above $1.50 to assume that better days are indeed ahead.Failing to breach the level should see a progressive drift lower towards last Friday's levels – A break of the lows scenario is not out of the picture!Levels of interest for XRP trading:Support Levels:$1.10 to $1.20 Recent Drop Support$0.90 to $1.00 Psychological SupportEarly 2024 consolidation support $0.50 to $0.60Resistance Levels:$1.50 Momentum Pivot (bull above, bear below)$1.90 to $2.00 Major Pivotal Resistance$2.35 2026 ResistanceResistance at March 2025 $3.00 WickMain ATH resistance Zone $3.40 to $3.65Solana (SOL) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) Daily Chart, February 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Solana was subject to intense competition and accumulation in late 2024 and early 2025 but has since largely overshot to the downside.Back to its 2022 consolidation support ($76 to $82), it remains one of the most undersold cryptocurrencies when looking at previous cycles and its competitors.It could of course continue to drift lower but it will be interesting to see if there is still much downside left for the Crypto.Any further break could see interest at around $50.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:$76 to $82 Major 2022 Pivot$69 February lows$50 Psychological levelResistance Levels:Major Momentum Pivot $115 to $120$125 to $130 2026 Base Resistance$140 to $150 Major Resistance$253 Cycle highsSafe Trades and Happy 10th of February (it's my birthday)!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei surge continues Japan's Nikkei 225 surged to a new record highFrance's unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 7.9% in the final quarter of 2025The US dollar retreated to near a one-week low as the Japanese yen strengthened, while gold managed to sustain its position above the $5,000-per-ounce psychological thresholdMarket participants are focused on a series of critical economic indicators, including the weekly ADP employment report and the NFIB small business optimism index later today.Asian markets surged on Tuesday as investors reacted positively to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory.Leading the regional gains, Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.3% to reach a new record high, marking its third straight day of increases. This momentum lifted the MSCI All-Country World Index to a fresh peak, while the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) rose 0.6%.Despite the equity rally, the Japanese yen also saw continued strength for a second consecutive session.In Southeast Asia, Indonesian markets remained resilient, climbing 1% even after FTSE Russell delayed a planned index review. This stability comes despite recent warnings from MSCI regarding a potential downgrade to frontier status due to transparency concerns.Meanwhile, the Japanese bond market saw significant activity as yields on long-term government bonds retreated for a fourth day. The 40-year JGB yield dropped 8.5 basis points to 3.73%, while the 30-year yield fell to 3.495%.This cooling of bond yields which move inversely to prices follows a period of record highs triggered by Takaichi’s campaign promise to suspend food taxes for two years. With her Liberal Democratic Party now firmly in power after a decisive win, foreign demand has surged, stabilizing the debt market even as equity investors celebrate the political certainty.Most Read: NFP Preview: Benchmark revisions, fate of the March rate cut & implications for the DXY and Dow JonesFrench unemployment rate hit four-year highs France's labor market showed signs of cooling in the final quarter of 2025, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.9%. This figure exceeded market expectations of 7.8% and reflects a steady climb from the 7.7% recorded in the third quarter, marking the highest jobless rate since late 2021.The total number of unemployed individuals grew by 56,000 to reach 2.5 million. While this is a significant 0.6 percentage point increase year-over-year, the current rate remains 2.6 points lower than the peak levels seen in 2015.The demographic breakdown reveals a stark contrast across age groups, with younger workers bearing the brunt of the downturn. Unemployment for those aged 15–24 surged by 2.4 points to reach 21.5%, while the 15–29 age bracket saw a 0.5-point increase to 16.0%.Conversely, the rate for workers aged 25–49 saw a slight improvement, falling 0.2 points to 6.9%, and unemployment for those 50 and older remained steady at 5.1%. Gender-based data showed a narrowing gap as female unemployment dipped slightly to 7.6%, while male unemployment rose to 8.1%.Despite the rise in joblessness, other indicators suggest the French labor market remains highly active. The overall employment rate for the 15–64 age group held firm at 69.4%, hovering near historic highs.While full-time employment remained stable at 57.5%, part-time roles saw a modest increase to 11.8%. Most notably, the total activity rate measuring both those employed and those actively seeking work reached an all-time record of 75.4%, suggesting that more people than ever are participating in the workforce.European Session - European shares eye muted opening European equity markets were positioned for a flat opening on Tuesday as a period of significant growth gave way to investor hesitation.While the previous two sessions saw strong gains fueled by positive corporate earnings and a jump in Eurozone investor sentiment for February, market participants have shifted their focus to upcoming US economic reports. These data points are expected to be critical in shaping future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.Locally, the day’s agenda includes the release of French labor statistics and industrial production figures from Turkey, which will provide further insight into regional economic health.The corporate landscape also contributed to the morning's cautious atmosphere. Standard Chartered made headlines with the unexpected departure of CFO Diego De Giorgi, who stepped down to join asset manager Apollo; Peter Burrill has been appointed as his interim successor.Meanwhile, the luxury sector remains under pressure as Kering revealed a continued slump in sales for its flagship brand, Gucci, highlighting ongoing struggles in the high-end retail market. Reflecting this collective uncertainty, futures for both the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx 600 showed virtually no movement in premarket trading.On the FX front, the US dollar retreated on Tuesday as traders braced for a wave of new economic data, including retail sales and labor figures.The Japanese yen spearheaded the move, strengthening to 155.24 per dollar following an 0.8% jump on Monday. This recovery was bolstered by verbal warnings from Japanese officials and a renewed focus on fiscal sustainability under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, helping the currency distance itself from recent record lows against the euro and the Swiss franc.Sentiment toward the dollar was further dampened by reports that Chinese regulators have encouraged domestic banks to reduce their holdings of US Treasuries, contributing to the "sell America" theme currently circulating in global markets.Meanwhile, the euro maintained its strength at $1.19125 after its own significant rally on Monday, leaving the US Dollar Index (DXY) languishing near a one-week low of 96.79.In China, the yuan surged past the 6.91 per dollar mark for the first time since mid-2023, bringing its year-to-date gains above 1% amid expectations of continued appreciation.Other commodity-linked currencies saw more modest movement; the Australian dollar dipped 0.2% to $0.7079, pulling back slightly from a three-year peak, while the New Zealand dollar eased 0.3% to settle at $0.60395.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday but managed to sustain their position above the significant $5,000-per-ounce psychological threshold. This retreat follows a volatile period where the metal surged 2% on Monday, briefly recovering after a dramatic correction from its late-January record of nearly $5,595.The broader precious metals complex mirrored this cautious sentiment, with silver experiencing even sharper fluctuations. After a nearly 7% rally in the previous session, spot silver fell 2.1% to approximately $81.63 per ounce on Tuesday.Like gold, silver is currently stabilizing after a historic selloff that saw it plunge from a peak of over $121 on January 29. Market analysts note that while speculative profit-taking is driving these short-term dips, long-term support remains firm due to continued central bank accumulation led by the People's Bank of China and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.Read More:NFP and CPI: The next major catalysts as Gold (XAU/USD) rallies 2% to $5060/ozRout in the US Dollar – A warning for Non-Farm Payrolls?US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly OutlookEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The day ahead is a quiet one in terms of EU and UK dataThe US dollar faced continued downward pressure on Tuesday, as a pervasive sense of bearishness took hold of the market. This negative sentiment is clearly reflected in the FX options markets, where demand for dollar "puts", bets that the currency will fall, remains high across short, medium, and long-term tenors.Further weighing on the greenback were recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, who suggested that the dollar’s current weakness is not a "first order" concern for US inflation. His remarks have bolstered the market's belief that Washington is currently maintaining a stance of "benign neglect," appearing comfortable with a softer currency as long as it doesn't trigger a more severe inflationary spike.Looking ahead to the rest of the day, investors are focused on a series of critical economic indicators, including the weekly ADP employment report and the NFIB small business optimism index. Market attention will also be fixed on the December retail sales release, where the "control group" category is projected to show a healthy 0.4% month-on-month increase.Such a result would support the narrative that the American consumer remains resilient, a trend that could be further reinforced in March when households begin receiving their annual tax rebate checks. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, The FTSE 100 index is on the decline this morning and is approaching an area of support at 10330.A break below this support area can bring the 100-day MA into play resting at 10247.If this level is able to hold then a bounce may materialize with immediate resistance at the 10415 handle.The one concern is that the RSI period-14 has crossed below the 50 level which hints at a shift toward bearish momentum.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, February 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 9 This week opens on a broadly positive note, with the Debasement Trade flows dominating today's session.Profiting from a US Dollar sell-off, Tech Stocks, Commodities, FX Majors, and all rebounded after their struggles last week. The Nasdaq is actually leading US Indexes for the first time since January 28, pointing to some mean-reversion flows and position closures ahead of this week's gigantic US data calendar.But Markets remain skeptical – daily bounces occured in assets that have struggled at the start of February. US equities are undergoing a stark rebalancing, maintaining the Dow Jones above 50,000, but the Index still faces significant challenges ahead of tomorrow's Retail Sales and Wednesday's, before its breakout confirms – DJIA closes the session flat.Commodities and Gold also rebounded, but face hurdles ahead. The Bullion reaches $5,100 ahead of the key data, but will have to push above the level to maintain. Some safe-haven bids still underpin demand, particularly after recent Chinese Gold accumulation data.Elsewhere, Japan's snap elections were a massive sweep in favor of Sanae Takaichi, removing one of the key catalysts for the Japanese Yen. JPY is finishing on top of the FX board. This session gives a certain sense of relief rallies in undersold assets, but that could really point to some Markets getting flat (reducing positions). Hence, watch out to not get caught in continuation traps ahead of this week's key events.Discover: US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly OutlookNote: I tend to provide a lot of warnings on Iran developments , but this tail risk deserves at least attention if not careful planning. US Military assets are still amassing near the Middle East, and despite the ongoing talks in Oman, the situation isn't yet to be forgotten.This could have also helped the rise in Commodities today. Read More:Rout in the US Dollar – A warning for Non-Farm Payrolls?Tech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookChart alert: USD/JPY rebound fades as intervention fears signal renewed downside risk below 157.50NFP and CPI: The next major catalysts as Gold (XAU/USD) rallies 2% to $5060/oz zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 5, 2026 Today really looked like a Debasement Trade Stocks session with Oracle, Microsoft, Palantir and Nvidia rebounding that way.But watch out for short-positioning getting relieved (implying less potential for continuation) ahead of key releases.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today really looked like we were in early October, except for Cryptos remaining muted for the most part.Silver finishes on top of the asset board, but is selling off quite suddenly ahead of the COMEX close. Oil on the other hand did not give up its gains, up 2.30% today.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, February 9, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs It was all about the US Dollar selloff today, profiting to the Swissie and Japanese Yen the most – It will be interesting to see if the Yen maintains a better road ahead. Threats for an FX intervention by the Ministry of Finance are still quite active.Watch out for these trends potentially stalling ahead of tomorrow's Retail Sales data.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar for February 10, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com A look at Economic data releasing throughout today and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Monday evening is light on hard data, with markets guided mainly by Fed speakers (Bostic, Miran) and BoE’s Mann, setting the tone on policy bias. In Asia-Pac, Westpac consumer confidence will be the only concrete release.Tuesday is the key risk event: US focus shifts to Retail Sales and the Employment Cost Index, both crucial for the inflation-growth mix and near-term Fed expectations. Hammack, Logan, the two most hawkish Fed voters could amplify any reaction. Overnight, China CPI/PPI will be watched for deflation signals, while NAB business confidence adds a domestic check on Australia.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East headlines and flows!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar is opening the week on a sharp descent, with few catalysts to show for it.Are participants getting ready for dovish Non-Farm Payrolls? It could surely be the case.Last week showed a startling turn in pre-NFP labor surveys. Jobless Claims reached their highest in since early December, Challenger layoffs sent out another 2008-2009 comparison, and even the previously rebounding ADP private payrolls surprised to the downside. zoom_out_map Jobless Claims Weekly Data since 2025 – Source: FRED If it were only expectations of a soft number on Wednesday, however, that would traditionally translate into lower yields across the board.The US yield curve is steepening (expecting lower Federal Reserve rates ahead), but bonds are broadly unchanged on the day.US 10Y Yields Weekly Chart zoom_out_map US 10-Year Yields Weekly Chart, Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026. Apart from sell-the-fact news in the Yen after Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the Japanese snap elections, taking USD/JPY back below 156.00, other FX currencies are also taking their turn on dollar weakness.The Greenback is at the bottom of the Major currency board in today's session.Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026. The Dollar Index erased its February gains and will test a strong Support range (96.50 to 97.00) amid oversold RSI levels – is the reversal overextended?Check out more levels for the US Dollar in our recent DXY in-depth analysis.Stocks and Commodities are also rebounding to start the week, with metals taking more than a breather, extending higher in their 3rd consecutive sessions of gains.Gold is now back comfortably above $5,000 in today's rise (and even, $5,100!), indicating that the safe-haven is still far from being out of the picture for investors – China did reveal that January was their 15th month of acquisitions for the Bullion, reflecting their cautious stance with the US Dollar.By the way, Chinese regulators recently demanded that Banks reduce their reliance on US Treasuries, marking a new turn in the financial Cold War.Gold 4H Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026. Discover: Tech hasn't said its last word – Dow Jones and US Index Outlook Oil isn't gapping lower like in last week's open when WTI dropped 7% (actually up above 1% today).US-Iran ongoing discussions are also a factor, maybe one for surprise as the world slowly turns its attention away from US military assets amassing in the region – Keep the latest news in check.A large bull flag seems to be forming – It developing could point to $72 in Oil but will depend on Iran developments.US Oil (WTI) 4H Chart zoom_out_map WTI US Oil 4H Chart, Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026. With limited data, trends, or headlines, this session's drop in the US Dollar could provide interesting mean-reversion setups ahead of Wednesday's Non-Farm Payrolls report.Keep a close eye on tomorrow's Retail Sales data (8:30 A.M.; +0.4% m/m exp) as any beat could stage a swift bounce.And the same counts for Non-Farm Payrolls and Friday's inflation data.Despite today's weakness in the dollar, the flows seem more like mean-reversion from early February flows than the start of a restarting Debasement Trade.This week will be a massive test for Markets, so get ready!Read More: US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly OutlookSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (09/02/2026): Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the latest on financial markets. In today's episode, we discuss the market reaction to a "super majority" for Sanae Takaichi in the Japanese elections, as well as a once-delayed US NFP report expected this Friday. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The price of gold has started the week on the front foot. It settled down after some big price swings at the end of last week, mostly because of renewed haven demand and strong fundamental support.Right now, gold is trading at about $5,070/oz. That is an increase of roughly 1.45% today. At its highest point so far, the price reached nearly $5,080/oz.US Dollar Index (DXY) vs Gold (XAU/USD) zoom_out_map Source: TradingView China buying spree continues China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), continued to grow its gold reserves for the 15th month in a row this January. By the end of the month, the country’s total holdings reached 74.19 million ounces.Because gold prices fluctuated so much recently, the total value of these reserves jumped significantly, rising from about $319 billion to nearly $370 billion in just one month.While gold is typically a "safe" investment during times of trouble, it had a very rocky start to the year. Prices hit a record high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January due to heavy betting by investors.However, this surge crashed quickly after Kevin Warsh was chosen to lead the US Federal Reserve, among other factors which sent prices tumbling down to around $4,403 by early February.In terms of how people in China are using gold, the trends are mixed.Overall gold use fell for the second year in a row in 2025, dropping about 3.75%. Despite this general decline, people are rushing to buy physical gold bars and coins as a way to protect their wealth.Demand for these items spiked by over 35% last year, and they now make up more than half of all the gold bought in the country. This shows that while the PBOC has gone through phases of pausing and restarting its purchases, the general public remains very interested in gold as a safety net.US Dollar faces headwinds at the start of the week The US dollar has started the week on the back foot due to two main reasons. First, market participants are feeling more confident and are putting their money into "riskier" investments like stocks instead of holding onto the dollar. For example, big American tech companies recovered well last week, and stock markets around the world are doing great, which appears to be pulling money away from the dollar.Second, things are not looking as strong back at home in the United States. Recent reports showed that the job market is weaker than people expected. Because of this, investors are waiting to see if the Federal Reserve will change its plans or worry more about unemployment.This combination of better opportunities abroad and disappointing news at home is pushing the value of the dollar down with major data reports ahead.US data ahead: NFP and CPI could provide a catalyst A busy week for US data could be a catalyst for gold bulls or could prove to be a thorn in the side. The question on the mind of market participants is which will it be?First, we will get the NFP and jobs report on Wednesday with unemployment also a key metric to keep an eye on. The recent uptick and recovery has given market participants something else to pay close attention to besides just job creation in the private sector.A miss on the unemployment rate or NFP print could stoke significant US dollar volatility and thus impact gold trajectory.The CPI report on (originally scheduled for Wednesday) will be another major data point to watch. Private sector reports show that inflation is slowing down quickly, there is still a concern that the official CPI might stay high. This is mainly because of the delayed effects of trade tariffs.US companies are currently paying the taxes on imported goods, and while some of these businesses are trying to save money elsewhere to cover the extra costs, there is a strong chance they will eventually pass those costs on to shoppers.On the positive side, cheaper energy prices and falling rent costs are helping to balance things out and keep overall inflation from rising too much.Keep a close watch on geopolitical developments as well with the US-Iran-Israel situation a fluid and evolving risk to market sentiment. This could have major implications for haven demand this week as well. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is starting to lean toward further gains for Gold prices.The rally since the February 2 low at 4402 has printed a higher high and higher low with a fresh higher high looking more likely.The period-14 RSI broke above the 50 level which hints at bullish momentum.A break and four-hour candle close above the $5100/oz may give bulls more cause for optimism as well and may lead to a speedy rally toward the $5200/oz mark.A four-hour candle close below the $4760/oz would lead to a break in structure and the need to re-evaluate price action.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, February 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Benchmarks mean-revert higher after strong defensive rotation flows last weekTraders await for significant tests this week with NFP and CPI releases, containing volumes and volatility for nowExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Geopolitical turmoil is fading into the background as traders already look ahead to a major stress test from US data.The past week marked a sharp shift in positioning across risk assets and equity markets. After months of gradual rotations, stock benchmarks appear to have reached a turning point, with high-beta Tech, AI, and Software names flat-out dropping against more traditional sectors. A striking illustration of the trend is seen by looking at Microsoft versus Walmart — with two very different trends now clearly forming. zoom_out_map Walmart Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 9, 2026. zoom_out_map Microsoft Daily Chart – Source: TradingView. February 9, 2026. Is this move justified? For now, the US continues to benefit from AI-driven productivity gains without equivalent labor growth, so that benefits US companies and profit-expectations for now. But that imbalance is precisely what’s unsettling investors, as artificial intelligence moves deeper into its phase of creative destruction.With restructuring underway among AI leaders and the US economic outlook still broadly supportive, flows are being forced to readjust. The era of passive investing — where everything rose together — is now behind us. Participants are now hunting for local mispricings, many of which have surfaced in long-ignored defensive sectors such as Energy, Consumer Defensives, and Agriculture. zoom_out_map Sector Performance since October 2025 – Source: TradingView. February 9, 2026. This rotation helped propel the Dow Jones to fresh all-time highs last week, breaking above the 50,000 mark, while the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 lagged behind. That milestone sets elevated expectations heading into a heavy week: US Retail Sales (Tuesday), Non-Farm Payrolls (Wednesday), and CPI (Friday) could all challenge the recent relief bounce in equities.Today is shaping up as the calmest session, with limited drivers outside of geopolitics and a softer US Dollar. Traders are also watching Fed Governor Waller’s speech this afternoon (13:30 ET) for any tone shift, now that he is out of the running for Fed Chair. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:36 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 9, 2026 This session reverts some of last week's rebalancing flows with Microsoft and Semiconductors leading the way and profit-taking among other sectors – Typical from key outperformers ahead of high-tier data.We prepare for the heavy week with today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.Note: Iran developments remain one of the largest tail risk for volatility, hence as participants turn their attention away, keep a close eye on any breaking news. Read More:Chart alert: USD/JPY rebound fades as intervention fears signal renewed downside risk below 157.50US NFP and CPI double-decker – Markets Weekly OutlookBank of England moves closer to rate cuts. March a real turning point for monetary policy and the PoundDow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is now consolidating after last Friday's explosion to a new-record.Holding above 50,000 in today's session confirms that the index remains bid even above the milestone ahead of this week's key reports.Any push above the overnight gap-higher (50,271) after the Non-Farm Payrolls data will be a sign for continued breakout for the cycle.Watch out however if you see a strong drop with high volume in Wednesday's open.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsAll-time Highs mini-resistance 50,200Session highs Resistance 50,271Potential minor resistance 50,400 to 50,500Support Levels49,900 to 50,000 Momentum PivotJanuary ATH Resistance now Pivotal Support 49,500 to 49,700Major Support – 49,000Past week Support 48,600 to 48,700Key Support around 47,50045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now proving that it won't abandon this battle so easily, breaking out of its past week's descending trend in this morning's action.Nonetheless, with the key data ahead, dip-buyers will want to monitor closely reactions to the 4H 50 and 200-period Moving Averages.Rejecting them would pose a dead-cat bounce signal for the tech sectorBreaking back above however points to further recovery for the Nasdaq which could stage a rebound against the DowKeep these indicators in check after the NFP and CPI for confirmation on the upcoming trends.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistance (4H 50 and 200 MA)Pivotal Resistance 25,700 to 25,85026,246 FOMC highsAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMinor Support now Pivot 25,000 to 25,250February 5 lows 24,16524,500 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – February 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView It seems that the S&P 500 is poised to retest its 7,020 All-time record ahead of the key weekly release, but it seems unrealistic to expect a real breakout before that.After NFP and CPI, see if traders can manage a clean push above the ATH, closing above on the week will be a confirming sign.Any clear rejection however confirms the rangebound picture for the Index even further.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPrevious ATH Resistance now Pivot 6,945 to 6,975 (testing highs)Session top 6,983Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsPivotal Support Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,735 (range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.