Key takeaways Yen weakness persists despite intervention risks: USD/JPY surged to a 21-month high above 160.45, brushing off verbal intervention warnings as bullish momentum remains firmly intact.Macro drivers favour further upside: Rising oil prices and a widening US–Japan rate differential (Fed more hawkish vs BoJ’s gradual stance) continue to pressure the yen, reinforcing USD/JPY’s uptrend.Technical structure supports continuation: Price action remains within a rising channel above 159.85 support, with momentum indicators signalling further upside potential toward 161.16 and beyond unless a breakdown triggers a pullback. The Japanese yen had staged a mild gain of 0.5% to print a 5-day high of 158.96 per US dollar ex-post the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 28 April 2026.BoJ advocated a “hawkish hold” on its cash policy rate at 0.75%, with three officials dissenting (opting for a rate hike), which represented the biggest divide under Ueda’s governorship.Overall, the BoJ has continued to guide the market along the lines of its “gradual interest rate hike” stance; in turn, short-term interest rate swaps traders are pricing a 66% chance that the BoJ may enact an interest rate hike when it sets policy again on 16 June 2026.However, the gains on the yen were short-lived despite recent “stark and forceful” verbal intervention remarks made by Japan's Finance Minister Katayama on 23 April and 28 April, expressing concerns on a weakening yen with authorities standing ready to respond as needed to move in the currency market around the clock.Higher oil prices and hawkish dissents in the Fed ignite another rout in JPY Fig. 1: Medium-term trends of USD/JPY & WTI crude oil with correlation coefficient as of 30 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The movement of the USD/JPY has a significant direct correlation with WTI crude. They move in tandem as Japan imports approximately 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, and oil fuels Japan’s key export-oriented sectors like automotive and manufacturing.Hence, without any clear signs from the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil and energy flows, it increases the risk of stagflation in Japan, putting the BoJ in a dilemma to maintain its “gradual interest rate hike” monetary policy stance (a negative for the JPY).The WTI crude oil has rallied by 38% since 17 April 2026 to trade at an intraday level of $110/barrel at this time of writing, erasing its losses since the start of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement on 7 April.The recent hawkish messaging from the US White House administration towards Iran, continuation of the US Navy blockage in the strait, Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the waterway, and the latest report by Axios, today, that highlighted US military commanders are set to present President Trump with fresh options for military action against Iran on Thursday, 30 April.Given that the USD/JPY has a high direction correlation of 0.72 (20-day rolling) with WTI crude oil, with the near-term bullish trend remaining intact for WTI crude oil (three consecutive daily closes above its 20-day moving average at $99.50/barrel), there is a high probability that the USD/JPY is likely to face further upside pressure in the near-term (see Fig. 1). Fig. 2: US-Japan implied interest rate policy curve spread as of 29 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the US and Japan are calculated using short-term interest rate futures that are highly sensitive to the expectations on these countries’ central banks' monetary policies (the Fed and BoJ, respectively.The current US/Japan implied interest rate policy curve spread for June 2026 has flattened, but it has shifted upwards to 2.74% from 2.46% three months ago (see Fig. 2), reinforced by three US Federal Reserve officials who dissented against an “easing bias” in yesterday’s FOMC monetary policy statement.These observations suggest that the Fed is likely to be more hawkish or less dovish than the BoJ, which may prevent the Japanese yen from altering its major downtrend phase against the US dollar in place since May 2025.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.USD/JPY – Rallied to a 21-month high and cleared above 160.45 “intervention level” Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 30 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The “red hot” USD/JPY has continued its climb upwards and hit a 21-month intraday high of 160.67, clearing above the prior intervention level zone of 160.23/45, where Japanese authorities stepped into the currency market on 26 April 2024.Watch the 159.85 key short-term pivotal support on the USD/JPY to maintain its ongoing minor uptrend phase from 17 April 2026 low, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 160.74 and 161.16 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).A clearance above 161.16 may see a further push up to test the 161.80/95 key long-term pivotal resistance, where prior intervention took place in early July 2024.However, a bearish reversal and an hourly close below 159.85 invalidates the near-term bullish tone for a corrective pull-back to expose the next intermediate supports at 159.05 and 158.60 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on USD/JPY The price actions of the USD/JPY have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 17 April 2026 low of 157.59, with its upper boundary at around 161.16.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bullish momentum conditions as it printed a series of “higher lows” above the 50 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Markets are moving sideways as Global traders await for the last Press Conference from Jerome PowellInvestors are also awaiting the key Mag 7 earnings, releasing after today and tomorrow's closeExploring Pre-FOMC Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Could the fun be over for US Stock Markets? It is a perpetual question for Investors, who are constantly interacting with thousands of catalysts and data points. The long term says that Markets are always more resilient, but Traders are looking to capitalize in the short term.While the direction remains very uncertain, volatility will persist over the next 24 hours.The first major catalyst is expected about 2.5 hours from now, with the FOMC Rate Decision (100% priced unchanged). As always, communications at the Press Conference are what will move Markets the most, so traders should keep their bullets for the 14:30 (ET) event.This will be Powell's final Press Conference as Federal Reserve Chairman, so expect some additional thoughts and words which could have a decent Market impact – The Fed Chair could still have some tough words on inflation expectations.’ Impact of new Federal Reserve Chairmen on Stock Markets. Source: Nationwide Other volatility-shaking catalysts for Stocks include the highly anticipated and feared Mag 7 earnings, with Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft reporting after the close.Projections are for sustained record earnings, but investors will be particularly attentive to whether extremely elevated infrastructure spending is beginning to yield a return on investment.The pressure point for Investors and Market sentiment overall is to see if AI really turns out to be as profitable as the Trillions invested require it to be. We will get the answer for this throughout the years, but elevated volatility and expectations could still have an effect on present risk appetite. This is what happened in October 2025 and led to the gigantic AI/Tech crash.Finally, the US-Iran impasse continues, and it seems that Iran is slowly feeling the pressure from the Strait of Hormuz blockade. While the strategy hurts the global economy, it is a decent counter-attack on what the Islamic regime was imposing on Gulf oil exporters.This is why President Trump wasn't opposed to maintaining the Ceasefire, and the Strategy should pressure negotiations promptly – the issue, however, is that Oil Markets are not so patient, and WTI Crude is now well back above the triple-digit mark, trading around $105!Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Alphabet (GOOGL) Earnings Preview: Q1 earnings hinge on margins and the cloudAmazon (AMZN) Technical: Uptrend and outperformance factor intact above 231.00 key supportMicrosoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview – Will Q1 numbers confirm MSFT's price recovery?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:51) – Source: TradingView – April 29, 2026 The Stock Market is trading in a low volatility, profit-taking environment which is dragging most sectors lower.Only the eternally strong semiconductors are mean-reverting higher after the past session's tumble, bringing Nasdaq back higher – Expect this picture to change tomorrow depending on the earnings.Dow Jones 2H Chart and FOMC Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones officially broke its 500-point consolidation to the downside, which dampens the short-term momentum.Still, the 2H 200-period MA is acting as support and traders will have to monitor if it serves as support or breaks after the FOMC – Look at 48,860 in that event.Below points to ~48,400 – stronger selling could easily turn to 48,000.Rebounding from there could regain 49,500 and even test 50,000 (on a dovish outlook from Powell)Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMajor Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100Weekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,60049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support Levels2H 200-period MA 48,860 Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView While remaining the only Index higher in this morning's action, Nasdaq is stuck in a 150 points range right around 27,000.Look for breakouts above and below that range which should lead to strong follow through.If sellers take the advantage, look at the 26,100 - 26,200 previous All-Time Highs for a retest.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot at 27,000 - 27,150 (testing)Record highs 27,42027,500 micro-resistance28,000 Major psychological resistance (and channel highs)Support LevelsMini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 officially broke its upward trend but remains comfortably above 7,100 in its consolidation.Breaking the psychological level should, like Nasdaq, extend back to the previous All-Time Highs (~7,020).In the event of a bounce, look at 7,230 as a target, and to confirm, look for a clean break of 7,180.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance 7,150 -7,160 (rejecting)New all-time resistance 7,180 - 7,200Next key potential resistance 7,200Mini-channel highs 7,2560Support LevelsWeek-end gap 7,100 PivotPrior ATH Pivotal support 7,020 to 7,050Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of Canada kicked off the Central Bank sessions with a hawkish holdOil prices continue to maintain bullish inflows in the Canadian Dollar but communications are still mixedIn-depth Technical Analysis and technical levels for USD/CAD and EUR/CAD The Bank of Canada just released its Policy Rate decision, maintaining rates unchanged for the fourth time since October 2025 and, quite frankly, not hinting at much change in its stance.The Statement (which you can access here) had nothing particularly surprising, with the Bank noting that the outlook isn't much different from that indicated in the January Decision.Some concerns about the Quarterly MPC Projections regarding the economic outlook maintain the Bank's view of a not-so-strong Canadian economy, which takes some pricing out of rate hikes.Nonetheless, the BoC assumed a $75 Crude Oil barrel, so if it stays closer to $100 for the next meeting, the Bank should turn more hawkish.On the Loonie, it yoyo'd quite aggressively throughout the ups and downs of the Middle Eastern war – With WTI Crude bouncing back above $100 just today, the CAD is seeing a two-catalyst recipe for its daily performance; At least against other Major currencies (with USD traders awaiting the FOMC).Even if the war really settles, the Canadian Dollar should not regain its prior lows, with increased Oil revenues and orders, which would underpin the CAD for the next few months at least – The BoC mentioned this in relation to Oil developments."While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast: Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices."The Press Conference starts very soon, access it here.Let's dive right into a two-timeframe USD/CAD analysis. Read More:Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview – Will Q1 numbers confirm MSFT's price recovery?Nasdaq 100: AI bubble fears overblown, bullish trend intact above 26,760 key intraday supportChart alert: Silver (XAG/USD) rout extends below $75.90 key intraday resistance, bearish trend intactUSD/CAD Daily and Intraday Technical AnalysisUSD/CAD Daily Chart USD/CAD Daily Chart, April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD has officially stalled its correction, now bouncing from its 1.3660 Support Zone.With the BoC not showing many hawkish signs, the CAD is immediately losing some strength and this should normally extend the price action back towards the 50-Day Moving Average (1.37330).Above 1.3750, expect to see further rallies in the North American Pair back towards 1.39.USD/CAD 1H Chart and Trading Levels USD/CAD 1H Chart, April 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The FX Pair has officially broken its downward channel and having passed above its 50 and 200 Hour MAs, the rebound should see continuation.Look for a break above the 1.3710 particularly if the FOMC adds fuel to the fire in the US Dollar – It will be Jerome Powell's ultimate Press Conference, so don't expect anything too crazy there.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3720 – 1.3750 Pivot 50-Day Moving Average (1.37330).1.38 mini-Resistance +/- 150 pips1.3850 - 1.3870 Momentum Pivot (Channel retest 1.3860)1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistanceSupport Levels:1.3675 200-Hour MA1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)End-January Lows 1.34820 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AI bubble fears lack confirmation as trend holds: Despite a temporary sell-off triggered by concerns around OpenAI revenue, the Nasdaq 100 stabilised, suggesting that recent “AI bubble” worries are not yet supported by technical or momentum signals.Semiconductors continue to lead without peak signals: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) remains the key market leader with strong gains, but current momentum levels are still below dot-com bubble extremes and show no bearish divergence, indicating further upside may be possible.Bullish structure intact above key support: The Nasdaq 100 continues to trade within an ascending channel, supported by healthy market breadth and bullish momentum signals, with 26,760 acting as the critical level to maintain near-term upside potential. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in control”, published on 20 April 2026.On Tuesday, 29 April 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported (before the start of the US session) that AI start-up, OpenAI (creator of ChatGPT) had fallen short of several internal revenue targets that spooked traders, leading to a sell-off on the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures of 1.5%, and several US technology and semiconductor stocks (NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD).The Nasdaq 100 managed to trim its losses as US trading hours progressed on Tuesday and ended the session with a reduced loss of 1%, aided by OpenAI refuting the claims made in the Wall Street Journal report.Bubble concerns have resurfaced around the AI-driven productivity and infrastructure capex narrative that powered the sharp rebound in US equities, erasing losses from the US–Iran conflict. Despite pushing the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 to fresh record highs, investors are increasingly questioning whether aggressive AI spending can deliver sustainable returns, raising the risk that valuations may be running ahead of fundamentals.My colleagues, Zain and Elior, have written reports on the upcoming earnings releases of key Nasdaq 100 component stocks, Alphabet and Microsoft (links below), due after the close of today’s US session, which can also influence the intraday movements of the Nasdaq 100.Read more:Alphabet (GOOGL) Earnings Preview: Q1 earnings hinge on margins and the cloudMicrosoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview – Will Q1 numbers confirm MSFT's price recovery?Semiconductor stocks are leaders that led the stock market bullish cycle Fig. 1: SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 28 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: SOX, Magnificent 7 & US stock indices YTD performances as of 27 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). For US stock market traders, monitoring the health of the semiconductor stocks is paramount, even though they do not have any semiconductor names on their watchlists, because they are the market leaders that led the recovery stages of a broader market bull cycle.Also, towards the end of the bull cycle, these market leaders will tend to be the first or second sectors that flash out signs of bullish exhaustion, a warning that the broader stock market trend is about to stage a bearish reversal.So far, the barometer for the US semiconductor stocks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which consists of 30 stocks, is the leader of the ongoing recovery since the US-Iran war started on 28 February 2026. Using the pre-war baseline of 27 February 2026 to Tuesday, 28 April 2026, the SOX recorded a gain of 24% (see Fig. 1), surpassing the returns of the “Magnificent 7” except for Amazon, and the four US benchmark stock indices.On a year-to-date performance basis as of 28 April 2026, the SOX led the pack significantly with a whopping return of 42% (see Fig. 2).Read now, I shall uncover several key momentum and market breadth factors that suggest the medium-term bullish trend of the Nasdaq 100 since the 30 March 2026 low remains intact.140% year-on-year gain on SOX is not extreme and overbought yet Fig. 3: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) long-term secular trend with 12-month ROC (Source: TradingView). The recent rally in the US semiconductor stocks (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), in the past four weeks, has been historic, by some measures, the most frenzied since the dot-com bubble days since 2000.Until Friday, 24 April 2026, the SOX was up nearly 40% in April and up over 160% from a year earlier, both the most since 2000, driving up fears of a bubble bursting that may lead to devastating wealth destruction in terms of magnitude and time. The Nasdaq 100 took 15 years, and the SOX almost 18 years, to revisit their 2000 peaks after the dotcom bubble burst.Based on data as of Tuesday, 28 April 2026, the year-on-year increase of the SOX is at 137% (see Fig. 3), which is still way below the 228% y/y gain seen on SOX that coincided with the major top of the SOX and Nasdaq 100 in March 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.Also, before the SOX and Nasdaq 100 tumbled drastically from September 2000 to October 2002, the 12-month Rate of Change (y/y) of the SOX flashed out a bearish divergence condition in August 2000, before the start of the September 2000-October 2002 major downtrend phase (see Fig 3).Right now, there is no bearish divergence condition on the 12-month Rate of Change (y/y) of the SOX.Market breadth of Nasdaq 100 remains healthy Fig. 4: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above 20-day, 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The share of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages is still holding above the 50% level; 59% and 54%, respectively, as of Tuesday, 28 April 2026.Also, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks above the longer-term 200-day moving average has improved slightly to 52% (above 50%) from 48% printed earlier on 15 April 2026 (see Fig. 4).Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.Nasdaq 100 – Oscillating within a bullish ascending channel Fig. 5: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 29 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Watch the 26,760 key short-term pivotal support on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures), and a clearance above 27,380 opens scope for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 27,647 and 27,934/27,994 (Fibonacci extension cluster) in the first step (see Fig. 5).However, a violation and an hourly close below 26,760 invalidates the intraday bullish scenario for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 26,480 and 26,288/26,142.Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the Nasdaq 100 The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a bullish divergence condition on Tuesday, 28 April 2026, after it reached its oversold region (below the 30 level).Elliot Wave Theory suggests the minor bullish impulsive wave three structure from the 2 April 2026 low of 23,511 remains intact.The 26,760 key short-term pivotal support confluences with the lower boundary of the ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 28 Markets are moving into a new, delicate phase of geopolitical negotiations. While a return to the diplomatic table is getting more realistic with concessions on both US and Iranian sides, the actual situation on the ground remains incredibly cloudy.The physical Oil market is still feeling the heavy pressure – We are now nearing almost 60 days of conflict, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the absolute biggest fear catalyst for global markets—is heavily dampening fundamentals.After the Ceasefire announcements (more than two weeks ago!), US stock benchmarks exploded higher from a relative turn in sentiment, aggressively pricing in a peace trade that compounded into a euphoric run to all-time highs. This massive bounce was highly magnified by options positioning and violent short-covering. Today, however, that honeymoon phase officially hit a wall; With WTI Crude oil aggressively retesting the $100 mark, traders are getting extremely anxious once again.Adding massive fundamental weight to this geopolitical anxiety is the economic and corporate calendar: With key mega-cap tech earnings getting released tomorrow, not to mention the looming FOMC policy decision, widespread profit-taking is quite logical. Yet, looking at the tape, there seems to be a deeper kind of fatigue settling into the markets. The tech sector is giving up its recent advantage, with Nasdaq at the bottom of US Indexes, and traders will need to see more concrete positive developments from here to avoid an inevitable, broader turn lower.Risk assets clearly do not like the triple digits in Oil – The energy surge sparked general selloffs in equities around the globe, and even metals took a noticeable hit today as traders move to the sidelines, awaiting clarity on both earnings and the Strait of Hormuz.Expect to see more of this if the Fed gets hawkish and/or results give a bad surprise. Read More:Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings Preview – Will Q1 numbers confirm MSFT's price recovery?The Tech honeymoon is over ... right before earnings? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Intraday OutlookAlphabet (GOOGL) Earnings Preview: Q1 earnings hinge on margins and the cloudKey Earnings releases tomorrow (April 29) Earnings release for April 29, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow clearly is the most important session for Equity traders until the next Earnings season.With immense profits already reported throughout last week, tomorrow welcomes the heavy money reporters, including 4 of the Mag 7s – Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView It is surprising to see that despite persistent rises in Commodities, Metals are the only major laggards of the session.Profit-taking and position closing ahead of the FOMC is not a surprise – Tomorrow should see major volatility and this could be exaggerated depending on what happens with US and IranA picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 28, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar rallied back to the top of the FX board but movements remain surprisingly underwhelming in recent weeks.Traders are awaiting for the key Bank of Canada and FOMC news to move the needle.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours will be welcome for volatility aficionados, with an absolute cascade of catalysts coming from all sides of the world.Tonight starts the banquet with Australian CPI, testing recent AUD strength, to quickly move on to Europe, with German CPI and EU consumer sentiment.Shortly later, the Bank of Canada will release their rate decisions and precede the FOMC in a huge Wednesday session.And this doesn't even mention the huge numbers releasing after the close.As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations that should happen over the weekend.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Microsoft lost over 30% of its value since reaching its all-time highs in July 2025, but recovering heavily since its March troughInvestors will want to confirm the price rebound with strong forward communications and profitsHigh spending projections for AI infrastructure saw tough responses, so Markets are waiting to see if better tech narratives could turn sentiment aroundFundamental Outlook for Microsoft Microsoft continues to dominate a tech industry that is slowly bouncing from Fearful trading territory, as can be seen with Nasdaq exploding back to its all-time highs – AI themes are trending again, with fears of other sectors being affected by higher Energy prices.Its fundamental strength is still anchored by a commanding market share in Enterprise Software (Office 365) and a robust #2 position in Cloud (Azure), which recently saw a stellar 39% year-over-year revenue growth.Despite recent selloffs in the MSFT stock, earnings growth remains impressive; in its most recent reported quarter (Q4 2025), Microsoft delivered a 24% increase in adjusted EPS ($4.14$), significantly beating analyst estimates.What scared investors was the immense spending projections for AI infrastructures, which hit at a time when Market sentiment took a turn to the downside.Indeed, recent bearish earnings reactions have been a mix of pessimism over AI monetization—specifically with 15 million paid Copilot seats—and caution regarding massive capital expenditures on GPUs at a time when costs are exploding.Microsoft is Open AI's primary cloud partner and they just announced a restructuing in the way they operate – Reactions have been more optimistic than pessimistic, but the real response will be seen tomorrow. You can read more about it right here.Overall, Microsoft remains a Cash Cow, returning over $12 billion to shareholders last quarter through buybacks and dividends, so it remains a relatively attractive investment on large drops.Keep in mind that general appetite for Tech and AI remain the primary driver of Mag 7 attraction.Bubble fears persist, but it still seems that the top is not quite there yet – and compared to 2000, profit-numbers are more than real: they are record-breaking! Microsoft Earnings Growth – Courtesy of Macrotrends Microsoft Daily Chart, Technical Levels and Scenarios Microsoft has bounced about 20% from its 2025 Support, so expectations are high.According to Bloomberg, the EPS estimate is at $4.04 to $81.46 Billions – So traders will want to see both a beat on these estimates and more realistic spending projections. Microsoft (MSFT) Daily Chart – Source: TradingView Microsoft technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels$430 to $445 April Resistance$460 to $475 Pivotal Resistance$485 to $500 December Highs$540 to $550 ATH Double TopSupport Levels$410 to $420 Momentum Pivot$380 to $395 Key February Support$340 to $350 2025 and 2026 Support$310 to $320 September 2023 Support A break above the $445 Resistance should see a fast extension towards the 200-Day MA ($469) – The next step is $500.Below $410 however, a retest of the 50-Day MA ($395) could materialize quickly.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Nasdaq leads US Benchmarks to the downside and traders are now unrolling risk heavily ahead of the key earningsThe honeymoon price action for Stocks is now facing a few tests, including still unclear geopoliticsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The honeymoon phase for US Equities is officially facing its first major stress test in weeks. The Nasdaq is currently leading US Stock benchmarks to the downside, as traders scramble to unroll risk ahead of the most critical corporate Mega Cap earnings stretch of the year.Compounding the anxiety from the releases is a still quite unstable and uncertain geopolitical landscape. While recent reports suggest that Iran is expected to submit a revised peace proposal soon—desperate to escape the economic chokehold of the US naval blockade—the timeline for an actual resolution remains cloudy. This morning, President Trump posted in a Truth Social bomb that Tehran is actively demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, yet until a concrete deal is signed, the global logistical nightmare persists. Adding to the supply drought, WTI Crude Oil has surged right back around and above the $100 mark with the UAE officially exiting from OPEC. This resurgence in Energy commodities is hurting broader stock market sentiment and adding pressure to the recent bullish momentum – Check out our recent WTI piece to learn more on these issues! US-Iran Peace Deal odds for May 31 – April 28, 2026. Source: TradingView Prediction-Market Odds for a proper peace deal have slowly crumbled, going up above 70% but are now back below 35% – So remaining hopeful in such an environment could be quite risky.On the corporate front, the underlying US economy continues to show immense resilience, highlighted by a strong earnings beat from Coca-Cola this morning and keeping the DJIA afloat. Today's after-the-bell lineup, featuring Visa and T-Mobile, will keep traders busy, but it is merely an appetizer. However, the quintessential challenge for Wall Street arises tomorrow when four of the Magnificent 7 heavyweights—Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft—release their Q1 earnings. With tech valuations stretched to the absolute limit in a flash melt-up since the Ceasefire announcement and the macroeconomic backdrop clouded by triple-digit oil, these titans must deliver flawless guidance to prevent a vicious, broader market correction. Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:UAE quits OPEC! Crude Oil explodes to $100 – WTI Technical analysisAmazon (AMZN) Technical: Uptrend and outperformance factor intact above 231.00 key supportGold (XAU/USD) Selloff Deepens: Technical breakdown and rising Oil prices accelerates bearish momentumCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:59) – Source: TradingView – April 28, 2026 Except for Nvidia and Microsoft still extending their remarkable rebounds (having underperformed throughout early 2026 trading), the entire Market is suffering from the latest fundamental flows – Only Energy and Financials maintain a balanced price action.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – April 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is still holding its super-strong 500 point range between 49,000 and 49,500 – Keep these levels in check for the breakout trading.Normally, consolidating near all-time highs is a positive sign as overbought conditions ease and the Market rebalances while not showing any sign of weakness, so this would add to higher odds of a bullish breakout.Nonetheless, the current fundamentals are very fragile and any bad news in the Middle East could see a flash drop lower – Worsening sentiment hasn't hurt the price action yet.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,60049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support Levels4H 50-period MA (49,050)Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,100 (Range lows)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – April 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView I hope that some of you captured the bearish break forecasted in our past session's Stock Market analysis!The price action is now stabilizing with the Nasdaq down 1.70% from its record highs and crossing below 27,000.The short-term price action is close to oversold, implying a slowdown of the selling, but any pullback ahead of tomorrow's close could be sold. Make sure to hedge your risk or reduce it before the after-market Mag 7 earnings!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot at 27,000Record highs 27,42027,500 micro-resistance28,000 Major psychological resistance (and channel highs)Support LevelsMini-support 26,600 to 26,750Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300War Support 25,000 to 25,250Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – April 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also breaking its low-slope bull channel in today's anxiety pullback.Conditions are quite similar to the Nasdaq, but the Spoose maintains a somewhat more resilient price-action. Keep track of the movement around the 7,100 psychological level.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance 7,150 -7,160 (rejecting)New all-time resistance 7,180 - 7,200 Next key potential resistance 7,200Mini-channel highs 7,2560Support LevelsWeek-end gap 7,100 PivotPrior ATH Pivotal support 7,020 to 7,050Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Q1 earnings success hinges on demonstrating how massive AI investments will lead to durable margin expansion.Google Cloud is the primary battlefield: analysts seek 50% growth and a surge in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO).Management must justify the $75 billion investment plan (Capex Trajectory) to avoid the "spending ahead of demand" narrative.A classified Pentagon AI deal provides a strategic "trust" win for competing in high-stakes, secure AI environments.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Selloff Deepens: Technical breakdown and rising Oil prices accelerates bearish momentumAlphabet (GOOGL) is set to step into the earnings spotlight on April 29, and the stakes for the search giant have rarely been higher. While the stock has enjoyed a stellar run to yearly highs, the market’s focus has shifted.It is no longer enough to simply beat on the top and bottom lines; investors now demand a clear roadmap for how Alphabet’s massive AI investments will translate into durable margin expansion.With the options market pricing in a 5.63% post-earnings move, well above the 1.44% historical average, volatility is almost guaranteed. Here is what is moving the needle for Alphabet heading into the Q1 print.The Fundamental Backdrop: Revenue Resilience Wall Street remains optimistic about the core engine. Consensus estimates peg revenue at $106.89 billion, a 19% year-over-year jump.However, the Earnings Per Share (EPS) outlook is more nuanced, with estimates ranging from $2.10 to $2.68.The lower end of that EPS range reflects the "AI tax", the heavy infrastructure costs Alphabet is absorbing to keep pace in the generative AI arms race. The market will be hypersensitive to any signs that these costs are beginning to erode the company's historically robust operating margins.Key Swing Factors for Market Participants The Cloud as a Success BarometerGoogle Cloud is the primary battlefield. Analysts are looking for 50% year-over-year growth, but the real "tell" will be the Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO). A surge in RPO would confirm that enterprise clients are locking into long-term AI contracts, justifying the current valuation. If Cloud growth stalls while capital expenditure climbs, expect the "spending ahead of demand" narrative to weigh heavily on the share price.The Capex TrajectoryAlphabet has telegraphed a staggering $75 billion 2026 investment plan. Management needs to strike a delicate balance: reassure the market that they aren't falling behind Microsoft or OpenAI, while proving that they aren't overbuilding capacity. A capex raise without a matching revenue guide-up is a recipe for a post-earnings sell-off.Strategic WinsThe Pentagon AI Deal A significant tailwind heading into this release is the reported classified Pentagon AI deal. By securing a spot alongside OpenAI and xAI in defense infrastructure, Google has secured a massive "trust" win. This deal serves as a powerful rebuttal to critics who questioned Google’s ability to compete in high-stakes, secure AI environments.Technical Outlook and Potential Implications From a technical perspective, GOOGL has been a "Strong Buy" darling, but the risk of a "sell the news" event is elevated at these levels.The Bull Case: A "clean" beat characterized by Cloud acceleration and stable margins would likely see Alphabet test the $400 psychological level, supported by a flurry of analyst upgrades.The Bear Case: Any weakness in YouTube advertising or a dip in operating margins toward the 31% mark could trigger a swift derating. In this scenario, the stock may look to find support at previous consolidation zones as the market re-evaluates the ROI on AI.Key Levels to Watch:316.26 (100-day MA), 300.00 (psychological level), 278.27 (200-day MA)400.00 (psychological levelAlphabet Daily Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Bottom line Alphabet finds itself in a "show me" period like many tech and AI heavyweights. The company has the infrastructure and the strategic wins, but it must now prove that its AI-first transformation is accretive to the bottom line.As we move toward Wednesday’s close, the focus won't just be on how much money Google made, but on how efficiently they are spending it to secure the next decade of dominance.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices are experiencing a selloff driven by rising oil prices (fueling inflation concerns) and dampened sentiment regarding a potential US-Iran dealTechnical analysis indicates an accelerating bearish momentum, with Gold breaking below both the 100-MA and 200-MA on the H4 chartThe primary downside target for sellers is the $4601 support level, while a relief rally would face resistance between the $4650 and $4700 zones.Most Read: EUR/USD: Cautiously bullish above 1.1700 ahead of FOMC and ECBGold prices experienced a selloff in the Asian session as Oil prices continue to rise, stoking inflation concerns. Markets continue to be driven by the potential for a deal between the US and Iran.As the situation is fluid any change in perception around a deal is knocking sentiment. Rumors that President Trump is not happy with the recent proposal submitted by Iran. This has dampened sentiment early on Tuesday and barring any comments is likely to remain the status quo for the European session.H4 Chart: Bearish Momentum Accelerates The H4 timeframe paints a clear picture of a market struggling to find its footing. After failing to sustain a break above the $4800 handle, Gold has plummeted through key support levels.Crucially, the price has slipped below both the 100-MA (Blue) and 200-MA (Orange). The rejection at the $4700 psychological level earlier in the session acted as the catalyst for the current leg lower.With the RSI currently languishing in oversold territory (near 23), a short-term bounce wouldn't be surprising, but any recovery is likely to meet stiff resistance at the previous breakdown points.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Lower Highs and Structural Weakness On the H1 chart, the trend is undeniably bearish. We have seen a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The aggressive sell-off during the most recent candles has pushed Gold toward the $4620 area, slicing through minor support zones with ease.The gap between the price and the moving averages on this timeframe suggests the move is slightly overextended. However, the lack of a "bullish divergence" on the RSI indicates that the bears are still firmly in control. The $4601 level (highlighted by the purple horizontal line) stands as the primary target for sellers and the next major "line in the sand" for bulls.Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) M15 Tactical Analysis: Scenarios for the Upcoming Sessions Looking at the intraday price action (M15), we see Gold attempting to stabilize after a vertical drop. Here is how I am framing the upcoming sessions:The Bearish ScenarioIf Gold fails to reclaim the $4640 - $4650 zone during a relief rally, sellers will likely reload. A break below the recent swing low at $4620 would open the trapdoor for a move toward the $4601 support level.Target: $4,601.Trigger: Rejection of the M15 50-MA or a break of $4,620.The Bullish ScenarioFor a meaningful intraday recovery, the bulls need to orchestrate a "stop-run" back above $4650. This would signal a potential "exhaustion gap" and could lead to a squeeze toward the $4680 area (near the H1 MAs).Target: $4,680 - $4,700.Confirmation: A 15-minute close above $4,655 with an RSI move back above 50.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: $4650, $4687, $4700.Support: $4620, $4601, $4580.Gold (XAU/USD) M15 Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) While the long-term trend for Gold has been constructive, the short-term technicals are screaming caution. The decisive break below $4700 has shifted the momentum, and until we see a structural shift on the H1 (a higher high), I remain wary of catching the falling knife.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar falls from its past week highs despite Oil rising with traders getting ready for a busy FOMC weekFX Market correlations with Oil are slowly breaking as the conflict resolution remains in a chaotic fogUS Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis The US Dollar is aggressively backing down from its recent highs, ignoring a fresh surge in crude oil as traders brace for an important FOMC week (and don't forget tonight's Bank of Japan meeting!).For the past months, the FX market operated on the Petrodollar trade, with Oil and the USD holding a close to perfect correlation. Since late February, the Greenback reliably tracked every major spike in energy commodities. Today, however, that correlation is breaking down, following a progressive decoupling from Oil asset flows. Despite WTI Crude exploding back up to the $97 handle—a strong 4% surge on the session—the US Dollar is refusing to follow suit. Instead of catching a bid, the currency is now easing from its 1% rise last week, signalling that investors are now turning the page on the petrodollar trade (however, that relation could rise again if WTI crosses above $100). WTI Crude and Dollar Index (DXY) Correlation since February 27 – Source: TradingView This pricing divergence comes as the geopolitical conflict resolution continue to evolve into a chaotic fog. While the latest headline chatter continues to tease a potential Iranian reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, contingent on the US ending their blockade, but nothing clear has materialized in that direction. Diplomatic progress remains completely deadlocked as Iran stubbornly maintains exceptionally high demands, reportedly insisting on the preservation of its regional proxies and the permanent closure of U.S. military bases in the area.Interestingly, the only notable outperformance action for the Greenback was a striking gap higher right at the weekly open. However, with no particular fundamental catalysts accompanying the move, sellers aggressively stepped in and faded the gap, dragging the central reserve currency significantly lower throughout the session. FX Performance (15:28 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView. April 27, 2026 We’ll explore a few scenarios for this week's action in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY. Discover:EUR/USD: Cautiously bullish above 1.1700 ahead of FOMC and ECBEuphoria fades ahead of Mag 7 earnings – Dow Jones and US Stock Market Intraday OutlookChart alert: AUD/USD kickstarts fresh bullish impulsive sequence above 0.7090 key supportDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. April 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is maintaining a fairly mixed price action after the post Ceasefire tumble, confirming how confused FX markets have been.While a resolution to the conflict would take out the premium accumulated through the war, most of the move has already been done and the dollar is now forming a consolidation range between 98.00 to 99.40 until further news.Testing the 200-Day MA, it will be interesting to see if buyers head back into the currency to retest the weekly gap.Failing to do so point to further mean-reversion to the downside. FOMC communications will be interesting to observe (higher for longer, or turning the page on Oil-led inflation).4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. April 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The weekly gap higher surprisingly stalled right at the 4H 200-period MA (99.25) and now rebounding at the 50-period MA (98.36), so keep these two indicators closely in check ahead of the FOMC.It seems that the current hesitancy is providing consolidation setups, and watch for breakouts beyond any of them after the FOMC.For now, the major downside correction has stalled, so make sure to be patient before pushing for continuation moves.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels99.25 4H 200-period MA99.30 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.36 4H 200-period MA98.00 Major Support (rejecting)Support 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Range lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00Safe Trades and keep track of the latest headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (27/04/2026): Join Kelvin and Jonny in today's episode, where they discuss equity performance in the Asian session, as well as developments in US-Iran conflict from the weekend. Otherwise, we look ahead to another week of trading, speaking ahead of a key interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Overall Bias: The EUR/USD narrative has shifted from bearish to cautiously bullishKey Support: The bullish bias remains firm as long as the price sustains a hold above the critical 1.1700–1.1710 support zone.Tactical Scenarios: Bulls need to defend the 1.1700 area, with targets at 1.1769 and 1.1800; a break below 1.1700 triggers the bearish scenario.Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - Can earnings outweigh geopolitical headwinds & Central Bank decisions?EUR/USD finds itself grinding on a quiet Monday ahead of what is a busy week from a data and monetary policy perspective.EUR/USD gapped lower after the weekend but has since recovered the weekend losses and is trading marginally higher on the day. This sort of price action could continue in the early part of the week with volatility likely to peak on Wednesday and Thursday when we have the FOMC and ECB meetings.Of course any deal between the US and Iran in the interim could also shake up volatility and could potentially lead to USD weakness as the safe haven bets may begin to unwind. Keep that in mind while reading the technical setups and opportunities that may materialize below.H4 Chart Analysis: The Structural Shift On the H4 timeframe, the narrative has shifted from bearish to cautiously bullish. The most notable development is the price action reclaiming the 1.1700 psychological handle, which had previously acted as a stubborn ceiling.The pair has successfully pushed above the 100, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (MAs). Currently price is rejecting the 50-day MA opening up a potential retest of the 100-day MA at 17047. A sustained hold above the 1.1700–1.1710 support zone keeps the bullish bias firmly intact.The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently hovering around 54, suggesting there is ample "runway" left before the pair reaches overbought territory.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 27, 2026 Source: TradingView.com H1 Chart Analysis: Consolidation Before the Next Leg? Zooming into the H1 chart, we see a more granular view of the recent rally. The pair hit a local peak near 1.1754 (just shy of the 1.1769 resistance level) before edging lower.Currently, the H1 price has rejected the 200-MA (blue line) as dynamic support. This is a critical junction; if the H1 can print a bullish engulfing candle or a long-wick rejection near this 1.1716-1.1700 area, it would signal that buyers are ready to defend the intraday trend.The RSI on this timeframe has cooled off from overbought levels, effectively "resetting" for a potential move higher with some leeway for a drop toward 50 first.EUR/USD One-Hour Chart, April 27, 2026 Source: TradingView.com M15 Analysis & Scenarios: Tactical Planning for Upcoming Sessions The Bullish Scenario: For the bulls to maintain control, they need to defend the 1.1710 - 1.1700 area. An ideal entry for a long position would be a successful retest of the M15 200-MA (blue line) followed by a break back above 1.1750.Target 1: 1.1769 (Recent high/Horizontal resistance).Target 2: 1.1800 (Psychological level).Invalidation: A 15-minute candle close below 1.1700.The Bearish Scenario: The bears need to see a breakdown of the current consolidation. If the price fails to hold the 1.1700 level, we could see a "stop-run" back toward the primary support zone.Trigger: A break below 1.1700 would signal a deeper correction.Target 1: 1.1685.(Value area high).Target 2: 1.1643 April 8 swing low.Confirmation: Watch for the RSI on the M15 to drop below 50 to confirm momentum shift and look for an entry.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 1.1769, 1.1800, 1.1867.Support: 1.1700, 1.1680, 1.1643EUR/USD M15 Chart, April 27, 2026 Source:TradingView.com The overall technical posture for EUR/USD remains tilted to the upside as long as the pair remains above the 1.1700 pivot zone. Traders should keep a close eye on the US Dollar Index (DXY) for broader directional cues, but from a pure price action standpoint, the bulls appear to be in the driver's seat heading into the next session.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices surged past $107 on stalled US-Iran peace talks, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing a "higher-for-longer" interest rate outlook ahead of a busy week for global central banks.Equity markets remained resilient, with a rally in chip stocks driven by "tech-euphoria".A quiet day ahead with US-Iran developments remaining key.Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - Can earnings outweigh geopolitical headwinds & Central Bank decisions?Oil prices charged higher on Monday as a stalemate in US-Iran peace talks reintroduced a "fear premium" into the energy markets. The prospect of further disruptions to Middle East exports saw Benchmark Brent crude futures spike more than 2% in Asia trade, touching a three-week high of $107.97 a barrel.This renewed surge in energy costs is stoking fresh inflation worries, effectively forcing market participants to price out any hopes for interest rate cuts in developed markets this year. With the Fed already leaning into a "higher-for-longer" stance, the uptick in crude adds another layer of complexity for central banks ahead of a week packed with policy decisions. AI Optimism Offsets Macro HeadwindsWhile commodities felt the heat, the equity space remained resilient, buoyed by relentless AI spending. Chip stocks led a rally across Asia, with markets in Taiwan (.TWII), Tokyo (.N225), and Seoul (.KS11) following Wall Street’s lead to hit record highs. Despite some early wobbles in S&P 500 futures (ESc1), the underlying sentiment remains supported by "tech-euphoria" as investors brace for a heavy week of big-tech earnings reports.Geopolitical Flux: The Strait of Hormuz in FocusOn the geopolitical front, the landscape remains volatile. President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel a high-level envoy trip to Islamabad initially rattled nerves.However, a slight "risk-on" reprieve followed an Axios report suggesting Iran may be open to a "strait-first" deal, prioritizing the opening of the critical maritime artery while postponing broader nuclear negotiations.FX market in sombre mood The foreign exchange markets started the week in a consolidative mood, with the US Dollar Index hovering around the 98.41 mark, down a marginal 0.1%.While the Greenback remains the dominant force, the diverging impact of rising energy costs is beginning to carve out clear winners and losers across the G10 space.EUR/USD managed a slight 0.1% gain to trade at $1.1734, though the currency remains vulnerable. While the single currency saw a relief rally from $1.15 to nearly $1.18 following the ceasefire announcement in early April, that momentum is being tested.Unlike the US, which maintains a level of energy independence, the Euro area’s heavy reliance on oil imports makes it far more susceptible to the inflationary "tax" of surging crude prices.USD/JPY saw a fractional gain of 0.07%, bringing the pair to 159.26. However, the market remains on high alert as the currency sits uncomfortably close to the 160.00 handle.This level is widely regarded as a "line in the sand" for Japanese authorities, and any further weakness in the Yen could see Tokyo step in with direct market intervention to stem the slide.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs European Open: Shares steady ahead of a busy week European equities struggled for direction on Monday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 sitting flat at 610.86 points. Investors appear to be hunkering down for a high-stakes week dominated by central bank rhetoric and a deteriorating geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East.Despite the somber macro mood, specific pockets of the market found support through upbeat earnings and M&A activity:Nordex (NDXG.DE): The German wind turbine manufacturer surged 8.3% after reporting a significant beat on both core earnings and sales, outperforming analyst expectations.Forvia (FRVI.PA): The French auto parts supplier climbed 3.5% following the announcement of a €1.82 billion ($2.13 billion) deal to sell its car interiors division to Apollo Funds.While corporate resilience is providing a floor for European shares, the overarching theme remains one of caution. Until there is clarity on the US-Iran front or a dovish signal from central banks, expect the STOXX 600 to remain pinned within its current range.Read More:Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in controlChart alert: AUD/USD kickstarts fresh bullish impulsive sequence above 0.7090 key supportEuro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?Looking ahead It is a quiet day on the data front today which is welcomed given the busy week ahead.From tomorrow onward, the US economic calendar is heating up with several heavy-hitting releases that could dictate the Dollar’s trajectory for the remainder of the quarter.GDP Rebound in Focus The spotlight shines brightest on the first look at 1Q26 GDP. After a dismal 0.5% reading in the final quarter of 2025 heavily weighed down by the federal government shutdown, markets are looking for a significant "bounce-back."Current expectations are penciled in for a 2.2% quarter-on-quarter annualized expansion, signaling a return to healthy growth as the economy shakes off the impact of last year’s legislative gridlock.In addition to growth figures and the FOMC, we have key data points arriving to test the Fed’s "higher-for-longer" resolve:Consumer Confidence (Tuesday): A crucial gauge of household sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical volatility.Core PCE (Thursday): The Fed’s preferred inflation metric. With energy prices creeping back up, any upside surprise here will likely solidify hawkish expectations. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - US Dollar Index (DXY) The US Dollar Index (DXY) has faced some renewed selling pressure on the back of the latest headlines out of Iran.However, I’d caution against chasing the Index lower just yet. With crude oil prices remaining uncomfortably high and major central banks still in "wait-and-see" mode, the fundamental floor for the Greenback remains intact.On what is shaping up to be a relatively quiet Monday, expect the DXY to remain anchored around the 98.50 area as traders wait for the mid-week data deluge to provide a clearer catalyst.Key Levels to Watch:97.70, 96.90, 96.3799.50, 100.00, 100.61USD Index Daily Chart, April 27, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AUD/USD driven by risk sentiment in the near-term, not fundamentals: The pair continues to behave like a high-beta risk asset, with its correlation to global equities surging to 0.95 as stagflation fears and geopolitics dominate over RBA policy signals.Geopolitical optimism fuels rebound: Hopes of a potential breakthrough in reopening the Strait of Hormuz triggered a risk-on move, lifting AUD/USD back above 0.7120 and aligning with gains in US equity futures.Technical setup supports bullish continuation: Holding above 0.7090 keeps the uptrend intact, with a break above 0.7211 opening upside toward 0.7244–0.7300; failure below support risks a pullback toward 0.7033. Since its 17 April 2026 intraday high of 0.7222, the AUD/USD has staged a minor corrective pull-back of -1.6% within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 30 March 2026, towards a near-term support of 0.7120 on Friday, 24 April 2026.The recent minor consolidation seen in the price actions of the AUD/USD has been primarily driven by the fluid situation in the US-Iran war that is now entering its 9th week.The extended ceasefire agreement without a definite date announced last week by US President Trump does not lead to a second round of peace deal resolution talks, as both sides continue to impose blockages in the Strait of Hormuz that disrupt a crucial waterway for global oil and energy flows, putting lingering fears of stagflation on the radar.AUD/USD is now behaving like a “risk asset” Fig. 1: Movement of iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF with AUD/USD as of 27 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). As a result, the Australian dollar has become increasingly sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment, with stagflation fears overshadowing its traditional characteristics as a “commodity currency” and hawkish guidance from the Australian central bank, RBA.Since mid-March 2026, AUD/USD has exhibited a much closer alignment with global equities. The 20-day rolling correlation with the iShares MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) ETF has surged to 0.95, up sharply from 0.62 on 30 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).In today’s early Asia session on Monday, 27 April 2026, a potential breakthrough to allow the Strait of Hormuz to return to its operations may bear fruit.Axios reported that Iran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, which includes putting off nuclear negotiations through Pakistan. So far, no official statements on this matter from the US White House administration.Global markets reacted with risk-on optimism today, where an earlier gapped down of -0.3% at the start of Monday’s Asian session inflicted on the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures have been totally erased, while the S&P 500 E-mini futures is trading almost unchanged and the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures is up marginally by 0.17% to a fresh intraday all-time high at 27,480 at this time of writing.The AUD/USD has reacted positively in tandem with the US stock index futures, as it rose by 0.25% to trade higher at 0.7165, above Friday’s 24 April minor swing low of 0.7120.Let’s now focus on the technical factors to determine AUD/USD’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).AUD/USD – Bullish momentum revival above 0.7090 Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 27 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Watch the 0.7090 key short-term pivotal support on the AUD/USD. A clearance above the near-term resistance of 0.7211 (17 April 2026 minor swing high area) increases the odds of a fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.7244/7265 and 0.7300 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below 0.7090 invalidates the bullish bias for another round of minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 0.7033 (close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on the AUD/USD Today’s intraday bounce seen in the AUD/USD has taken place close to the lower boundary of its minor ascending channel in place since the 2 April 2026 low of 0.6860.The 20-day moving average has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its 50-day moving average.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to find support on its ascending trendline at around the 50 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed to new intraday records, propelled by diplomatic hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East & tech performanceThe week ahead features meetings from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England as well as tech earnings releases.The Bank of Japan is the "wild card" facing pressure for a surprise hike, while markets will also focus on China’s Manufacturing PMI, which is at risk of slipping back into contraction.Read More: U.S. consumer sentiment under pressure from war and rising oil pricesGlobal markets find themselves at a crossroads as the week draws to a close, with the narrative shifting between geopolitical caution and corporate optimism. While the US Dollar eased slightly on Friday, it remains on track for a weekly gain as traders weigh the potential for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Greenback’s trajectory has been a reflection of the broader market’s "wait-and-see" approach; optimism over a near-term peace deal has provided temporary relief, while the looming threat of prolonged energy disruptions continues to act as a floor for the currency.The Dollar Index (DXY) dipped 0.11% to 98.71 during Friday's session, yet it is still eyeing a 0.50% gain for the week. This relative strength has kept the Euro and Sterling under pressure, with the EUR/USD pair trending toward a 0.53% weekly loss despite a modest intraday recovery to $1.1699.Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen saw a slight flight-to-safety bid, strengthening to 159.62.The geopolitical premium is most visible in the energy sector, where Brent and WTI crude have surged 16% and 11% respectively this week, their second-largest gains since the onset of hostilities, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed.In the equity space, the mood is decidedly more bullish. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed to new intraday records on Friday, propelled by a dual engine of diplomatic hope and tech outperformance. Reports that Iran’s Foreign Minister is headed to Islamabad for peace talks, coupled with news that US envoys, including Jared Kushner, are set for Pakistan-mediated negotiations have offered a glimmer of hope for de-escalation.This sentiment was further bolstered by a surge in Intel shares, which helped the technology sector shrug off the release of DeepSeek’s latest AI model and lead the broader market higher.Earnings season is also providing a sturdy foundation for investor confidence. With over 80% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations thus far, the focus now shifts to a high-stakes week ahead. Five of the "Magnificent Seven" megacaps are scheduled to report, representing a significant portion of the index's market cap.As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eye their fourth consecutive week of gains, the longest streak since late 2024, the market's resilience will be tested by whether these corporate giants can justify their valuations amidst a backdrop of lingering inflation concerns and a volatile geopolitical landscape. Source: LSEG Week Ahead: Central Banks Walk a Tightrope as Geopolitical Tensions Refuse to Thaw Markets enter the final week of April facing a familiar, albeit intensifying, conundrum. While the "higher for longer" narrative was the theme of 2025, the spring of 2026 is shaping up to be defined by a "wait and see" stalemate. As we look toward the week starting April 26, the spotlight is firmly fixed on a trifecta of central bank meetings with the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, all of whom find themselves caught between sticky energy-led inflation and a fragile global growth outlook.Central Banks: All Bark and No Bite?The overarching theme for the coming week is the "balancing problem" facing global policymakers. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has kept oil prices buoyant, complicating the inflation path just as markets were hoping for a dovish pivot.The Fed (Wednesday): Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a steady hand in what is scheduled to be his final meeting as Chair. While the US economy continues to show resilience—with 1Q GDP expected to rebound to 2.7%—the core PCE deflator remains a thorn in the side of the FOMC. Expect a "hold" decision, with Powell likely emphasizing that while the labor market risks are skewed to the downside, the inflation fight is far from over.The ECB & BoE (Thursday): Across the Atlantic, the story is remarkably similar. Both the ECB and the Bank of England are expected to keep rates unchanged. For the ECB, Thursday’s flurry of data (GDP and April inflation) will serve as a reality check. In the UK, Governor Andrew Bailey faces a market that has recently ignored his attempts to talk down rate hike expectations. The challenge for both will be maintaining a hawkish bias to keep inflation expectations anchored without accidentally triggering a deeper economic downturn.Asia in Focus: BoJ and China’s PMIWhile the West grapples with policy inertia, the Asia-Pacific region is bracing for potential volatility.Bank of Japan (Tuesday): This is the "wild card" of the week. While the consensus leans toward a hold, a surprise hike remains on the table. With Tokyo CPI expected to accelerate and real interest rates deeply negative, the BoJ is under immense pressure to react. Watch the quarterly outlook report for upward revisions to the 2026/27 inflation forecasts.China PMI (Thursday): After a brief foray into expansionary territory, China’s manufacturing PMI is at risk of slipping back into contraction (49.9 expected). Any sign of cooling demand in the world’s second-largest economy could weigh heavily on commodity-linked currencies and broader risk sentiment.Australia’s Inflation (Wednesday): High oil prices are expected to push Australian CPI toward the 4.6% mark. This hot print could force the RBA’s hand as early as May, putting the "Aussie" dollar in the crosshairs. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY) From a technical standpoint, The DXY is currently testing an inflection point after a sharp recovery from January lows. Having broken below a rising ascending channel, the index has stalled, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum as it hovers around the 100 and 200-day MAs.Key Technical Observations:Resistance: The 99.56 handle remains the immediate ceiling. A failure to break this level could lead to a deeper pullback. The catalyst may be some form of deal between the US and Iran.Support: Immediate support sits at the confluence of the MA 100/200 (approx. 98.50). A failure to break above the 99.00 level would keep bears in the driver's seat.Indicators: The RSI (bottom) sits at 45.726, showing a bearish lean after the recent "Pivot" high.The trend is currently neutral-to-bearish. Watch for a decisive close below the 97.70 handle to confirm a deeper correction toward 97.00.Conversely, a daily close above 100.61 invalidates the bearish setup.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, April 24, 2025 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Key Catalysts The primary barometer for risk. A hawkish "hold" from the Fed could see the Greenback challenge recent highs, particularly if GDP data surprises to the upside.Conversely, should the BoJ opt for a hawkish surprise, expect a sharp unwinding of JPY carry trades, which could spark a broader "risk-off" move across equity markets.The upcoming week is less about what central bankers do and more about what they say they might do in June. With inflation proving stickier than anticipated and growth figures beginning to show the cracks of high-interest rates, the margin for error has never been thinner.Traders should remain nimble in a week where the data and the rhetoric are likely to pull in opposite directions.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (24/04/2026): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss an apparent drop in market uncertainty as the Department of Justice announces that an criminal investigation Jerome Powell alleging fraudulent spending on Fed building renovations are to be dropped. Otherwise, we discuss developments in the Persian Gulf and digest the latest numbers from Canada, the US and the UK. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a record low of 49.8 points in April, the weakest reading in data going back to 1978.Inflation expectations rose sharply, with consumers now expecting prices to increase by 4.7% over the next year.Oil market disruptions linked to the war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude near USD 106 per barrel. U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April, falling to a record low. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 49.8 points from 53.3 points in March, marking the weakest reading in data going back to 1978. The decline was driven mainly by concerns over the economic consequences of the war with Iran, rising energy prices and persistent uncertainty about the geopolitical outlook.The deterioration was visible in both consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their expectations for the months ahead. The current conditions index fell to its lowest level in four months, while the expectations index dropped to its weakest level in almost a year. Particularly concerning is the assessment of households’ future financial situation, which reached its lowest level since May of the previous year. The data suggest that U.S. consumers are increasingly feeling the impact of higher energy costs and the risk of weaker economic conditions. United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment, source: Trading Economics Inflation expectations are rising againThe most important warning signal is the sharp increase in inflation expectations. Consumers now expect prices to rise by 4.7% over the next year, compared with 3.8% in March. Long-term inflation expectations, covering the next five to ten years, rose to 3.5%, the highest level since October. This suggests that fears of persistent price pressure are intensifying again, even though markets had previously expected inflation to gradually ease. US Consumer sentiment falls to record low, source: Bloomberg Fuel prices are the main source of concern. Around two-thirds of respondents expect gasoline prices to be higher in a year, with the average expected increase at nearly 50 cents per gallon. For households, this means a risk of higher everyday costs, while for the broader economy it raises the possibility of weaker consumer spending in the coming months. Although retail sales remain relatively solid, a further increase in energy prices could limit Americans’ willingness to spend.The Strait of Hormuz is disrupting the oil marketPressure on fuel prices is directly linked to the tense situation in the oil market. According to Goldman Sachs, oil production in Gulf countries is currently 14.5 million barrels per day lower than before the war, representing a 57% decline in regional output. The main problem remains the near-total halt in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transport routes.The disruption of this strategic passage is significantly reducing supply and keeping tension elevated in the global energy market. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that even a full and safe reopening of the strait, combined with no further attacks, would not lead to an immediate return of production to previous levels. Restoring output could take several months, and the longer the disruption continues, the slower the normalization process may become.Brent crude trades near USD 105 per barrelBrent crude prices are rising for a fifth consecutive day and are heading for a weekly gain of around 17%. On Friday, Brent was trading near USD 105 per barrel, compared with less than USD 73 before the outbreak of the war. Although Brent remains below the conflict-period peak of nearly USD 120 per barrel, current levels still represent strong cost pressure for both consumers and businesses. Daily timeframe of Brent Crude Oil, source:TradingView Such a sharp rise in oil prices increases the risk of renewed inflation acceleration, especially if higher energy costs begin to feed through into transport, production and consumer goods prices. For U.S. households, this means greater financial uncertainty, while for the Federal Reserve it creates a more difficult policy environment. Rising inflation expectations and weaker consumer sentiment may complicate the assessment of whether the economy needs support or whether monetary policy should remain cautious. Risks to consumer spending are increasingThe University of Michigan data show that U.S. consumers are reacting more strongly to the consequences of the conflict with Iran and rising energy prices. The temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran reduces the risk of further escalation, but the lack of a lasting agreement means uncertainty remains high. As long as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, oil prices may stay elevated and inflation concerns may continue to weigh on household sentiment.As a result, the U.S. economy is facing an increasingly complex challenge. On the one hand, consumption has not collapsed. On the other hand, record-low sentiment, rising inflation expectations and more expensive fuel increase the risk of weaker spending in the coming months. If energy prices remain high, pressure on household budgets could become one of the key factors limiting U.S. economic growth. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks wiggle around for the 4th consecutive session as fundamentals remain quite mixedTech however keeps dominating the charts and allows Nasdaq to extend to new record highsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock benchmarks are wiggling around for the fourth consecutive session as the underlying macroeconomic and geopolitical fundamentals remain quite mixed but one particular Index, standing out above all. The technology sector continues to rule the charts, aggressively pushing the Nasdaq to extend into fresh record highs while the rest of the market catches its breath.With major tech earnings officially kicking off yesterday and spanning all the way through next week, the sector is being propelled to new heights on the back of a strong trend of record reports, and yesterday's Intel surprise kept the promise that tech nowadays is just too big to fail. Intel 4H Chart – April 24, 2026. Source: TradingView While software companies are still struggling to find their footing in this environment, electronics and semiconductors are proving to be particularly dominant. This intense pocket of fundamental strength is single-handedly allowing the Nasdaq to heavily outperform all other global indexes. Current Market Performance (Index Futures) – 12:03 (April 24) In contrast, the broader market paints a much more hesitant picture (but getting more positive as the session goes). The Dow Jones remains quite stuck below the psychological 50,000 mark as traditional capital acts more defensively, while the S&P 500 is tentatively trying to test its own recent all-time highs without fully committing to a breakout.The fundamental picture heading into the weekend remains extremely blurry. High-stakes US-Iran diplomatic talks are widely expected to take place this weekend, yet no official date or time has been announced. Adding to the tension, President Trump is maintaining heavy pressure and saying that he has time to act on Iran, implying that he doesn't seem to be too concerned with the current infighting among Islamic regime diplomats. Meanwhile, the aggressive US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz continues unabated. This logistical stranglehold is keeping WTI Crude uncomfortably sticky above the $95 handle as traders brace for yet another high-anxiety weekend.Let's dive into intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The calm before the storm? Key weekend risk incoming – Overnight Market CheckVolatile etf flows signal investor caution in the gold marketUSD/CHF Price Analysis: Bulls eye key resistance after base formationCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:08) – Source: TradingView – April 24, 2026 As you can see, it's really only Tech and Semiconductors that is stealing the show while other sectors pale in comparison.AMD (+15%) and Intel (+22%) are the largest gainers, boosting Nasdaq to +1.70% as we speak on the session. Impressive gains – Tech investors seem to have entirely forgotten the conflict already; something to be careful of in the upcoming week.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is finding some support at its 4H 50-period MA but is still looking to gather a decent buying momentum while it sees its higher beta tech-peers dancing higher.If nothing aggravating happens next week, the DJIA could be an interesting relative strength buy in the coming week. It should also hold relatively better in the event of a large risk-off move.Watch out for key earnings next week, and keep 49,500 in check (bullish above).Breaking 49,000 brings further strength to the sellers.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsWeekend Gap Fill Resistance 49,500 - 49,60049,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Early 2026 HighsAll-Time Highs 50,544Support Levels4H 50-period MA (49,080)Major Pivot – 49,000 to 49,200 (short-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Mid-term Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Except if anything changes fundamentally, the Nasdaq looks technically gone for another strong phase of price discovery.Now extending well beyond its record highs, the Index is pushing towards 27,500 – Keep track of the Bull channel!Keep close track of sentiment to make sure to not fall behind on a pursued rally or be stuck at the highs in case the action turns bearish suddenly.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 27,30027,500 micro-resistance28,000 Major psychological resistance (and channel highs)Support LevelsMomentum Pivot at 27,000 (Short-term bearish below)Prior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,30025,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday SupportWar Support 25,000 to 25,25024,450 to 24,550 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stuck in a consolidation near its all-time highs since the beginning of the week, the S&P 500 is pushing for a record break as we speak.If the tone doesn't sour heading into the weekend, the Index should easily extend 20-40 points extra into the first few days of next week.Watch the 50-period MA (7,080) in case the action brutally reverses (short-term bearish below).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDaily highs 7,167New all-time resistance 7,150 – 7,160Next key potential resistance 7,200Support Levels7,100 psychological levelPrior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the curve, with investors still confused about US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Another day, another desperate wait for any sign of peace in the Middle East.Markets are gripped by uncertainty, and with no signs of clear progress in the negotiations, Participants are in a wait-and-see stance.Some overnight news maintained the fog around the Iranian diplomatic team, which has faced constant changes and challenges, with Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf (one of the main negotiatiors) being ousted from the negotiating team for pushing to include Nuclear issues during the talks. There goes Iranian diplomatic credibility once again, as it shies away from the talks.While the talks will surely take even more time to materialize, the US seemingly does not care much about extending the Ceasefire, as it allows the strategic Hormuz Blockade to persist, which is taking a huge toll on the Iranian economy. Damages from the US Blockade on Iran – Source: Open Source Intel (X) For those looking to learn more about the geopolitical effects of the strategy, I invite you to check this post.To resume, however, with no Tankers allowed to cross, Iranian energy commodities are stuck within their borders, stalling production and causing economic strain. While they were able to leverage their dominance over the Strait at the beginning of the conflict, monopolizing traffic, Iran now faces a major crisis if it isn't able to sustain its oil and Gas trade.In the meantime, US Crude orders (and Canadian) multiply, giving North Americans even more reasons to maintain the pressure.With Iranian diplomats now returning to Islamabad, a path for diplomacy seems to be opening, but it is still too early to confirm it. WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The more time goes, the more Oil prices have the chances to grind higher, pressured by the lack of concrete diplomatic advances.Still, as long as the commodity remains below $100, widespread panic is to be avoided.With prices diverging right after testing the psychological barrier, it seems that a more rangebound path will grip Markets; This time however, it seems that the action won't get below $92 until a solution lands.Let's check out even more charts to get ready for today's weekend risk session. Discover:Silver (XAG/USD) is under pressure from Ceasefire clouds – In-depth analysisUSD/CHF Price Analysis: Bulls eye key resistance after base formationChart alert: EUR/USD drifted down to 1.1665/1635 key support for potential bullish reversalNasdaq continues to outshine US Benchmarks, others struggle Stock Markets are diverging quite remarkably this morning, with Intel up another 20% after earnings, showing that State ownership in companies is yet another reason for investors to flock in such Stocks.A new version of the too big to fail, this time for Tech. Intel is up 320% since July! Intel Daily Chart – April 24, 2026. Source: TradingView Stock Market performance today (April 24) – Courtesy of Finviz Tech investors continue to absolutely dominate the picture as the sector gets a much softer influence from Middle East conflicts.For those looking to get access to Index technical levels, don't forget to log in to our Stock Market Check around the mid-session!Metals remain stuck Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, April 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold and other metals are the best at depicting the uncertainty and confusion across assets – After rejecting their intermediate tops, the precious commodities are now looking for a narrative to trade on.Don't forget to check out our past day Silver analysis.The US Dollar gives back some of its prior advantage FX performance today (April 24) – Courtesy of Finviz After reaching a key resistance level around 99.00, some profit-taking is occurring and quite frankly, FX remains stuck.For those looking for action, in case the action remains dull next week, look for Minor FX pairs.Check out our in-depth US Dollar and FX reviews right here:USD/JPY maintains a clear range ahead of Japanese CPI – FX AnalysisA temporary Ceasefire extension maintains a bullish action – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateAs always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

High volatility led to fluctuating ETF flows, with outflows emerging in MarchTotal ETF inflows in Q1 were significantly lower than a year earlierElevated prices are weakening jewelry demandGeopolitical risks and central bank actions remain key driversStrong start followed by corrections The first quarter in the gold market was marked by high volatility. Prices reached a record high of nearly USD 5,600 per ounce in January, followed by two sharp corrections. These price swings had a clear impact on investor behavior, particularly visible in flows into gold-backed ETFs. After strong inflows in January, February saw a noticeable slowdown, while March brought clear outflows, especially in North America. Inflows into gold-backed ETFs, weekly data, source: WGC Weak overall etf demand As a result, the entire first quarter ended with only modest net inflows, significantly lower than a year earlier. This may limit overall demand for gold, which in 2025 exceeded 5,000 tonnes and reached a record level, supported largely by strong purchases of bars and coins.High prices weigh on jewelry demand Elevated price levels are beginning to negatively affect jewelry demand. Gold is currently trading around USD 4,700 per ounce, well above the 2025 average, reducing consumer interest in this segment.Central banks remain a key factor Central bank activity continues to play an important role. For instance, the Turkish central bank was forced to significantly reduce its gold reserves in March to support its domestic currency amid tensions related to the conflict with Iran.Medium-term outlook remains positive Despite short-term weakness in physical demand, the medium-term outlook for gold remains favorable. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy could support further price increases in the coming months. Gold chart (CFD), daily data, source: Tradingview Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.