Throughout this conflict, there has been a general alignment in markets. It has led to a sortof 'war-on' or 'war-off' trade where crude oil would rally on signs of escalation and it would mean stocks and bonds would fall, along with US dollar strength.Today is a big departure from that.WTI crude oil is up $11 to $111.13 but the S&P 500 is near flat. Treasury yields are also down around 1 basis point across the curve after earlier climbing.On the surface, it looks like different markets drawing different conclusions. The oil market is saying we're nearing genuine shortages and that Hormuz won't open for another month while the stock market is saying that doesn't really matter. For what it's worth, the FX market is generally siding with oil as the US dollar firms, though not nearly as dramatically as the oil market might suggest.For the answer to why the stock market moves still make sense, you have to look further out the oil curve. Yes, May WTI is up 11% but go to June and it slips to 7% and if you go out to the December contract, it's up just 59-cents today to $71.78. Here is a look at the December chart:I've extended it back a year here because that offers some perspective. Oil has climbed from around $62 pre-conflict to $72 now. That's notable but it's hardly a game-changer, even in fuel-sensitive industries like airlines. That would help to explain why the JETS airline ETF is down just 1.6% today and has climbed from the open.In short, the oil market is pricing in a couple more weeks of pain but all markets continue to indicate that in a couple months this will all be a bad memory.I would feel quite a bit better about that call if there were real signs that Iran wanted to make a deal to open Hormuz but for now, we'll have to rely on Trump's assurances. Like I wrote yesterday, the US has many levers it can pull to get the crude flowing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed.Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It's the only stock market holiday that isn't also a federal holiday. The date moves around because it's tied to the lunar calendar — and this year it falls on April 3.The BLS releases the employment situation report on the third Friday after the week containing the 12th of the month, which is usually the first Friday of the month. This time, that's also April 3.The last time this happened was 2023, with previous occurrences in 2021, 2015, 2012, 2010, 2007, and 1999.What's open tomorrowThe government is open. Good Friday is not a federal holiday, so the BLS will release the March employment report at 8:30 am ET on schedule. Consensus is for +60,000 jobs after February's -92,000 (see the economic calendar for more).Here's the breakdown:Closed all day: NYSE and Nasdaq cash equities, plus most global exchanges including London, Toronto, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, and Sydney.Open for abbreviated sessions: CME equity index futures will trade briefly with an early close around 9:15 am CT (10:15 am ET), using April 2 settlement prices. CME interest rate, FX, and crypto futures will also run abbreviated sessions with unique settlement procedures. Spot forex trades as normal, as always. Crypto markets are open 24/7, though futures will follow the CME calendar.Bond market: SIFMA recommended a full close on Good Friday for U.S. dollar-denominated fixed income, though the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and banks will be open. FINRA/TRACE will be closed so we won't get a read on bonds.The bottom line: any payroll surprise will channel through futures and FX, though war news is still paramount.A history of Good Friday surprisesBeth Stanton had an excellent thread on X walking through the backstory. Until 1996, the bond industry association (now SIFMA) recommended a full close on Good Friday, even when it coincided with NFP.That was tested in April 1994 when payrolls came in at +456,000 — nearly double the 238,000 forecast. It was ugly. Futures were open and many dealers had staffed their desks anyway.So when it happened again in 1996, the association recommended keeping bonds open until noon. Payrolls printed +140,000 — almost three times the 49,000 consensus — and another sharp selloff followed.However we're now back to a situation where the bond market is closed. Will we get another surprise? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Baker Hughes weekly rig count data shows:Total rigs 548 vs 543 lastOil rigs 411 vs 409 last weekNat Gas 430 vs 427 last week. The price of crude oil is trading at $110.75. That's up $10.60. The gain today is the highest since March 6. The high price reached $113.97. The high price from March 9 reached $119.48 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump is reported to have fired Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi. Fox news reports that he is eyeing Lee Zeldin as a replacement, but Todd Blanche is reportedly the interim AG. Trump has reportedly been frustrated with Bondi's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, and Zeldin's name has come up most frequently in discussions of potential replacements, though no final decision has been made. About BlancheCurrent Role: Blanche is the 40th Deputy Attorney General of the United States, a role he assumed in January 2025 to oversee the daily operations of the Department of Justice and its various agencies, including the FBI and DEA. He was additionally appointed as the Acting Librarian of Congress in May 2025, though the legality of that appointment has been disputed. Background: Born on August 6, 1974, in Denver, Colorado, Blanche graduated cum laude from Brooklyn Law School in 2003. His government career began within the Department of Justice, where he served for over 15 years, including as an Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. During his nine-year tenure as a federal prosecutor, he rose to the positions of Co-Chief of the Violent Crimes Unit and Co-Chief of the White Plains Division, where he managed high-profile investigations into public corruption, racketeering, and fraud. Trump's Personal Attorney: After leaving the DOJ, Blanche worked as a criminal defense attorney, representing President Trump in three of the criminal cases brought against him in 2023 and 2024. That close relationship with Trump led directly to his current position.At the DOJ: Blanche recently stated at CPAC that every Justice Department or FBI employee who worked on the criminal investigations into President Trump has been fired, resigned, or taken early retirement, amounting to "over 200" peopleAbout Zeldin:Lee Zeldin is a Republican politician from New York who is currently serving as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under President Trump.Here's a quick overview:Background: Born in 1980, Zeldin has a background in law, becoming in 2004 the youngest attorney in New York at age 23. He also served 22 years in the military, including as a military intelligence officer and a deployment to Iraq in 2006.Political career: He represented New York's 1st congressional district in the House of Representatives from 2015 to 2023, and before that served in the New York State Senate from 2011 to 2014. He was the Republican nominee for Governor of New York in 2022, losing to incumbent Kathy Hochul. EPA role: He has been serving as the 17th administrator of the EPA since January 29, 2025. In this role, he has overseen what he's described as "the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States," rolling back environmental regulations including protections for wetlands and endangered species, and pushing to weaken rules on emissions and pollution. In February, he announced a repeal of the endangerment finding — the legal basis by which the government regulates greenhouse gas emissions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social posts: The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again — Much more to follow! IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY! President DONALD J. TRUMPEarlier, Iran Pres. Pezeshkian said that Iran is not seeking to expand the scope of tension and war in the region. That came after Iran said it carried out drone attacks on US fighter jets at Al Azraq base in Jordan. Iran also listed potential responses to US/Isreal beingdestruction of the enemy's scientific and technological centers in the region with a focus on DubaiCounter-attack on scientific facilities in IsraelThe back and forth continues. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Villeroy is set to retire but he's out with some fresh comments:It's far too early to predict a timetable for rate hikes but it's clear we have the capacity to act whenever it's necessaryAs of today, we are closer to the ECB's adverse scenario than the baselineThe 'far too early' line excludes the upcoming meeting and that mostly aligns with the market move. But I'm sure everyone at the ECB -- like everyone else in the world -- is taking it one day at a time with this war. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In a post and video yesterday on USDCHF, I highlighted a key support zone between 0.7888 and 0.7903 that was being tested—and holding.At the time, I noted that this area had become a critical battleground. Buyers were leaning against it on the first test, helping to stall the decline. Why? Because it offered something every trader needs: a clearly defined level of risk.When risk can be defined and limited, traders can make a simple decision—risk a little to potentially make more than a little.Importantly, traders didn’t know what was coming next. They didn’t know what Trump would say, how the IRGC might respond, or that oil prices would surge toward $110. The fundamental story was uncertain. But the technical story was clear: a level where risk could be managed.That’s the key distinction. The story we don’t know often drives fear and hesitation. The story we do know—through technical levels—provides structure and discipline.By leaning against the 0.7888–0.7903 zone, traders gave themselves a defined risk. As long as that support held, the potential remained for a move higher—and an opportunity to profit from that shift.In the video, I walk through the technical factors that helped shape the market’s behavior. Especially in periods of heightened uncertainty, technicals act as a roadmap—removing emotion, minimizing guesswork, and anchoring decisions around risk-defined levels rather than unpredictable headlines. I also speak to "what's next?" This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A report that's getting some of the credit for the bounce in risk assets is from IRNA and says that Iran has drafted a protocol with Oman for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.Iran Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs confirmed the report but framed it more as housekeeping than some kind of war-ending effort. He said that even in peaceful conditions, traffic should be monitored."Of course, these requirements will not mean restrictions, but to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route," he said.The report says this is a post-war draft and aimed to prevent aggression in the future. I think if you're buying risk assets on this, that's grasping at straws and the S&P 500 briefly touched positive but is now down 15 points. It's been a very volatile day already.Update: The report says Iran will set tolls for ships passing via Hormuz. That's potentially better news. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Comments from the Dallas Fed President:Was quite challenging to do most recent round of Fed forecasts Swift war resolution may mean economic impact might be pretty moderate Policy is positioned to respond to data, Fed prepared to make adjustments as needed US has some buffers to impacts from the war Key question is if war disruptions induce investment in US energy production Energy producers appear to need extend higher prices to boost production I am not hearing we will see 'dramatic' US energy production increase so farThere has been a big turnaround in markets as there is some sense of a TACO coming. I flagged the bond market seeing this first and now it's spreading. There is a sense that someone out there is trading on insider war information.In real news, IRNA reports that Iran has drafted a protocol with Oman for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and that could be helping as well. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Market Flash: Broad Declines as Semiconductor Stocks Weigh Heavily on Tech SectorThe US stock market exhibited a broad downturn today, primarily driven by significant losses in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, while financials gave a mixed performance. Let's unpack today’s market movements and sentiments.?️ Technology Sector: Struggles Persist Amidst Semiconductor SlumpsSemiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) saw a drop of 0.93%, while Micron (MU) faced a steep fall of 3.14%. This indicates an ongoing struggle within the semiconductor industry, hinting at investor caution or sector-specific challenges.Broad Tech Impact: Microsoft (MSFT) slipped 0.70% and Oracle (ORCL) was down by 1.39%, showcasing a sector-wide ripple effect from semiconductor pressures.? Financial Sector: Mixed Signals SurfaceBanks and Credit Services: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) dropped by 1.19%, indicating some investor apprehension. Meanwhile, Visa (V) edged up 0.33%, suggesting more confidence among credit service firms.Asset Management: The segment experienced declines with names like BlackRock (BLK) down by 2.27%, underscoring variability in performance across the financial landscape.? Media and Communication Services: Mixed OutcomesGoogle (GOOG) dipped by 0.84%, while Netflix (NFLX) bucked the trend with a gain of 1.19%. This highlights select resilience amidst broader sector declines.Meta (META) decreased by 1.58%, aligning with the general tech sector sentiment of today.? Market Mood and Trends: Caution on the HorizonThe stock market today was characterized by cautious sentiment amidst significant sell-offs in technology stocks, particularly semiconductors. Investors seem to be rotating out of tech-heavy portfolios, possibly in search of safer bets amid emerging market volatility. The uneven performances in financial and communication services indicate a diversified market response to underlying economic signals.? Strategic Recommendations for InvestorsGiven today's market oscillations, diversification across sectors remains a prudent strategy. The financial sector, despite mixed results, shows potential areas for growth and stability, particularly in credit services. Meanwhile, investors should approach the tech sector, especially semiconductors, with caution and remain alert to sector-specific developments. It's advisable to stay informed with real-time data and market analyses from InvestingLive.com to strategize effectively within this dynamic market climate. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD has erased the gains from Tuesday and Wednesday, after stalling just ahead of a key resistance zone yesterday. That earlier move higher on Wednesday pushed toward the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 20 high to this week’s low, which comes in at 0.57714. The high price reached 0.5776, but buyers could not sustain momentum, with the rally falling short of the falling 200-hour moving average—a key technical ceiling (Green line on the chart below).Into the close yesterday, the pair move lower, but found support at the rising 100-hour moving average (blue line), prompting a modest bounce. However, that support gave way as oil prices surged and broader USD demand picked up following headlines tied to President Trump’s speech. The break below the 100-hour moving average shifted the short-term bias back to the downside, accelerating the move toward the lows from Monday and Tuesday near 0.56979.Once again, buyers leaned against that floor on two separate tests today, with the low for the day coming in at 0.56985—just above the earlier weekly lows. That level is now acting as a clear risk-defining support. The pair has since rebounded modestly and is currently trading near 0.5717. Moving below the 4 would open the door for further selling today and going forward. Until then there is hope for the dip buyers against the support level.Bottom line: Buyers have defended the 0.5698 area, but control remains limited. To regain more upside traction, the price needs to move back above—and stay above—the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.57324. If that happens, the focus shifts back to the 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement near 0.57714. Until then, the sellers retain the edge on rallies with a focus on the floor as the next target to get to and through to explore more downside potential.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is a bounce in the war trade after the market open. It's a tough one because it's a long weekend and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report is also a tricky one (though I don't think it matters that much).The big question is: Will Trump escalate or cut-and-run? For most of this week, the market was pricing in Trump declaring victory and walking away, leaving Europe, Asia and the Gulf states to clean up the Hormuz mess. Yesterday though, he talked about bombing Iran back to the stone age and that certainly sounds like escalation, and certainly not a basis for a ceasefire.So oil prices shot higher but notably, they've come in a couple bucks in the past hour. Even more notable is the Treasury market, with 2-year yields now flat on the day and down 7 bps from today's peak.So what's the thinking?Option 1:It's recession pricing. Yes, higher oil prices limit Fed rate cuts bu 3.80% for two years is decent yield to ride out whatever is coming. It's a brutally tough market to figure out right now and investors might simply be taking the safe way out even if much of the real gains will be wiped out by inflation.Option 2:The market is sensing a TACO. Trump woke up to a huge rally in oil prices today and that's not going to poll well if it continues. Trump's disapproval rating is already bad and a further rise in oil prices and a quagmire going beyond his 4-6 week timeline isn't going to help. France's Macron today said there is no easy way to open Hormuz so the path of least resistance is to simply pack up and leave.The problem is that Trump is entirely unpredictable. In his tweets all week, he sounded ready to leave but there are marines and paratroopers building up near Iran so we could easily get into an escalation trap and it could all happen before markets reopen on Monday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD closed Monday at 1.3917. Although the pair pushed higher on Tuesday to a cycle high of 1.39658, that momentum could not be sustained. The price reversed lower, closing at 1.3907, and extended the decline today to a low of 1.3870.On the move down, sellers were able to push below the rising 100-hour moving average, but downside momentum stalled ahead of key support. The price held above the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the March 23 low at 1.38525 and the rising 200-hour moving average at 1.38465. Those levels remain critical downside targets—break below them would be needed to tilt the bias more firmly in favor of the sellers.However, today’s price action has shifted the tone back to the upside. Supported by stronger USD demand and rising oil prices, the pair rebounded and moved back above the 100-hour moving average (currently near 1.3906). Importantly, there have now been two successful retests of that level—first during the early European session and again in early North American trading—with buyers stepping in each time. That keeps the buyers in control in the short term.On the topside, the next key target comes in at the swing area between 1.39246 and 1.39374. This zone has a long technical history—acting as resistance and support since August 2025—and remains a key barometer. The pair briefly broke above it earlier this week but failed to sustain momentum. A renewed break and hold above this area would strengthen the bullish case and open the door toward the next resistance zone between 1.3971 and 1.3984. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Yesterday's thinking was that Trump would declare victory in Iran and announce the operation would be wrapped up shortly. Instead, he said they're going to bomb Iran "back to the stone age, where they belong".The big bet in markets is whether or not energy infrastructure is targeted in strikes and whether the Strait of Hormuz will open. The latest war news is that a large bridge in Iran was blown up and that is another step down a dark road for Gulf infrastructure in general. Should Iran's oil be struck and they retaliate by hitting the rest of the Gulf, then it would take many months to bring production back online.For the short term, it's now not looking like Trump is close to making a deal -- as he indicated yesterday. That has May oil absolutely surging today with the WTI contract up $13.09 to $113.15.Other than a few hours in May, this is the highest that front-month oil has been in the US. That move has filtered to other markets with the dollar broadly stronger, Treasury yields up 3 bps across the curve and S&P 500 futures down 1.5%.This is a frustrating market. Trump isn't making any sense and no one in the administration is outlining a strategy to reopen Hormuz or make a deal for lasting peace. Saying he will bomb Iran "back to the stone age, where they belong" isn't the kind of thing to bring anyone to the negotiating table.For Europe's part, Macron today said it will be extremely hard to open Hormuz via military means and hinted that it will require some kind of diplomacy but it's not clear how that might come about. Trump last week set a deadline for this Monday at 8 pm ET for attacking energy infrastructure and you can see from the energy market's reaction that those odds have certainly gone up. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tesla deliveries for the first quarter were 358,023 compared to the consensus of 372,000. Model 3/Y deliveries disappointed at 342K vs 354K expected. Meanwhile, production of 3/Y was at 394K compared 377K expected.Shares were down 2% ahead of the announcement on the broad weakness in stock markets and that's extended to -3.5% in the aftermath.The comp for Tesla in Q1 was an easy one as Q1 2025 was arguably Tesla's weakest quarter in years — production lines across all four factories were shutting down for the Model Y Juniper changeover, resulting in just 336,681 deliveries. So any YoY comp is flattering by default. The Wall Street consensus of ~372K, implies only about 29,000 more vehicles than a quarter Tesla largely written off as a transition period.There's a notable divergence between the Street and prediction markets. On Polymarket, the 350K–375K bucket held an 83.5% implied probability, but earlier in the week the lean was toward a miss on the Street number.The bigger picture is that Tesla has now posted two consecutive years of declining deliveries, falling from a peak of 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.64 million in 2025. Full-year 2026 consensus sits at 1.69 million — a 3.3% recovery that would still leave the company well below its 2023 high-water mark.US sales have been hurt by the loss of the federal EV tax credit at the end of Q3 2025. In Asia, Tesla faces intense pricing pressure from domestic EV makers undercutting on price and features. European sales have been hammered by the Musk backlash and rising competition from VW and BYD, though there was a rebound in February.Despite the sales slump, TSLA stock is still up about 35% over the past year, even with a 20% slide to start 2026 — the market is pricing in robotaxi, Optimus, and FSD optionality rather than near-term unit volumes. If deliveries come in above 375K, it's a modest beat that could stabilize sentiment. Below 360K and the prediction market bears are vindicated. Either way, this is a company where the delivery number matters less than it used to — the narrative has shifted to software and autonomy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The weekly initial and continuing claims shows:Initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate. Prior week revised to 211K from 210K4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 207.75K versus 210.75K last week.Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.839M estimate.4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.839M vs 1.846M last week. The dominant theme is a "low-hire, low-fire" . The data reflects stability in the labor market amid a low-firing backdrop combined with slowing hiring.Low claims don't mean the labor market is entirely healthy. Hiring can slow at the same time layoffs remain low, creating a market where people who have jobs keep them but people looking for work struggle to find new opportunities.However this data is not reflective of a weakening labor market. The stock remain lower with the NASDAQ -476 points and the downtown -645 points. The US yields remain higher with the 10 year up 3.3 basis point at 4.354%. The 2-year is up 2 point basis points at 3.831% .Crude oil remains elevated and trades above $110 at $110.52. The high has extended to $110.74. With oil continuing its move to the upside that will be the focus for traders. The spike price from March 9 reached $119.48. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -3.65B (revised to -$4.18B)Exports 66.31B vs 62.488B priorImports 72.05B vs 66.13B priorCanada's merchandise trade activity increased sharply, with imports rising 8.4% and exports increasing 6.4%.There were some big swings in gold that made this report look worse than it was. Excluding unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys—a product group largely composed of unwrought gold—imports rose 5.8%, while exports were up 5.5%.The other thing skewing this data (and yesterday's Canadian data) was auto production shutdowns that extended into January then rebounded in February. As a result, imports of motor vehicle engines and motor vehicle parts rose +7.5%.There is going to be a big improvement in March given the jump in oil prices.Statistics Canada publishes monthly international merchandise trade data on a balance-of-payments basis, covering goods exports and imports by product and trading partner. The United States remains by far Canada's largest trading partner, though the U.S. share of Canadian exports slipped from 75.9% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025 as trade with non-U.S. destinations—particularly for energy and metals—expanded. Canada also publishes a combined goods-and-services trade balance, drawing on a separate monthly services trade survey.Canada's trade position deteriorated steadily through 2025. The annual merchandise deficit widened to C$31.3 billion, the largest since 2020, up sharply from C$7.2 billion in 2024. The surplus with the United States shrank from C$101.3 billion to C$81.6 billion, while the deficit with non-U.S. countries widened to C$112.9 billion. Monthly results were volatile, swinging from a C$6.4 billion deficit in August to a near-balanced position in September before slipping back to deficits of C$2.2 billion in November and C$1.3 billion in December.January 2026 brought a sharp deterioration. The merchandise trade deficit widened to C$3.6 billion from C$1.3 billion in December, well above the C$0.9 billion consensus. Exports fell 4.7%, the largest monthly decline since April 2025, dragged down by a 21.2% plunge in motor vehicle and parts shipments to their lowest level since September 2021, as prolonged production stoppages for model changeovers disrupted passenger car exports. Aircraft shipments also reversed a strong December. Energy exports provided a partial offset, with natural gas up 23.7%. Imports declined a more modest 1.1%. Including services, the total trade deficit widened to C$3.8 billion. Canada's surplus with the U.S. narrowed to C$5.3 billion, while the deficit with non-U.S. partners widened to C$9 billion. The February trade report is scheduled for release today, April 2. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior -54.50 billionExports 314.8 billion vs 302.2 billion priorImports 372.1 billion vs 356.9 billion priorThe February increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $2.5 billion to $84.6 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $27.3 billion.Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $136.1 billion, or 54.8 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $62.6 billion or 11.3 percent. Imports decreased $73.5 billion or 9.2 percent.The US International Trade in Goods and Services report, commonly known as the trade balance report, is a monthly economic indicator jointly released by the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It measures the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports.A positive value indicates a trade surplus, while a negative value - a consistent reality for the U.S. since 1975 - represents a trade deficit. The report is a critical component for calculating gross domestic product and provides insight into consumer demand, manufacturing health, and the US dollar’s strength in global markets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The USD is moving higher today as the “good times” tone from the last two sessions reverses to the downside. Risk sentiment has shifted, and the flows are reflecting that change.US yields are back on the rise, with the 10-year now up to 4.355% after testing the 4.25% level yesterday. That move higher in yields is helping to underpin the dollar.At the same time, US stocks are under pressure. The Nasdaq traded down as much as 600 points at the lows and is still off sharply, currently down around 500 points. While the broader indices remain higher on the week, what had been shaping up as the best week since late November is now losing momentum.In commodities, oil prices are surging. Crude has pushed above $109 and is now approaching the $110 level, with a high near $109.93. That continued strength reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions.On that front, headlines remain a key driver. President Trump reiterated his desire to step back from the conflict within a couple of weeks. However, overnight developments told a different story, with Iran’s IRGC reportedly targeting US-linked metal facilities in Gulf states and warning that further actions would be “more painful.” There were also claims of strikes on US military bases, underscoring the ongoing risks.Against that backdrop, the USD is behaving as expected. When risk sentiment deteriorates, the dollar tends to benefit, and that dynamic is playing out again today.In the video above, I break down the technicals driving the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD. In volatile markets like this, it’s critical to focus on the levels that define bias. Know where buyers turn to sellers, and sellers turn to buyers. Those levels define your risk, your targets, and ultimately your trade.Because while the news can shift sentiment quickly, the technicals help you stay grounded. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Oil extends gains, risk slumps further after Trump addressCrude oil surges back above $100 after Trump's speech as traders price out optimismDollar back in favour as Trump address dims market optimismGold erases gains as Trump disappoints the market; Downside risks remainIran claims to have targeted US-linked steel and aluminum facilities in the Gulf regionOPEC+ set to weigh further oil production increase on Sunday - reportGulf countries reportedly mulls new pipelines to bypass Strait of HormuzHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?ECB's Simkus: Too early to say what we'll need to do in AprilSwitzerland March CPI +0.3% vs +0.5% y/y expectedUS March Challenger layoffs 60.620k vs 48.307k priorMarkets:WTI crude oil up over 9% to $109.63S&P 500 futures down 1.5%European indices down heavily across the boardUSD leads the way as risk retreats10-year Treasury yields up 4 bps to 4.36%Gold lower by 3.3% to $4,600, Silver down 6.1% to $70.57Bitcoin down 3% to $66,180If yesterday was all about the anticipation ahead of US president Trump's address on the Iran situation, today is all about the disappointment to that. While Trump tried to pave the way to declare victory soon, he still said the US needs 2-3 more weeks to clean up operations in Iran. And that's not exactly the kind of timeline that markets want to hear at this point in time.With the oil market as stressed as it is already, adding a couple more weeks at the very least isn't going to help alleviate the ongoing pressure. That and the fact there is still much uncertainty up in the air even if the US decides to slowly pull back from the conflict.And the most important thing is, Iran is still not giving up control of the Strait of Hormuz. So, markets are responding in kind to the status quo being prolonged.Oil prices ramped up higher with WTI crude now jumping up by over 9% to above $109 and poised for its highest daily close since 2022.In turn, risk sentiment soured across broader markets. European indices are erasing the gains from yesterday with S&P 500 futures also seen down by 1.5% at the lows for the day. This comes as the selling also extends to the bond market and precious metals. 10-year yields in the US are up 4 bps to 4.36% with gold down over 3% to $4,600. Meanwhile, silver is down over 6% to $70.57 on the day.In FX, the dollar returns back in favour as market players revert back to the dash for cash. EUR/USD fell by 0.6% to 1.1515 now while AUD/USD is down 0.9% to 0.6865 on the day.As a reminder, it is a long weekend in Europe with the Easter holidays coming up. So, that could really ramp up the de-risking mood before the day comes to an end later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.