Australia's annual CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% in February 2026, yet it remains above the RBA's target range.The AUD/USD pair is technically "coiled" within a tight trading range of 0.6980 and 0.7070.Near-term price direction will be dictated by US Dollar strength and geopolitical developments.Key levels to watch are a sustained bearish candle close below 0.6980 or a bullish breakout above 0.7070.Most Read: The Metals space is as confused as traders are – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookAUD/USD continues to struggle below the psychological 0.7000 handle following softer than expected CPI data. Market participants still seem to be erring on the side of caution with more rate hikes still expected from the RBA moving forward.Soft CPI print fails to move the needle Australia’s annual inflation rate showed signs of cooling in February 2026, dipping to 3.7%. This result was slightly lower than the 3.8% market forecast and the figures seen in the previous two months, though it remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2–3% target range. Source: TradingEconomics A significant driver of this slowdown was the easing of goods inflation, which dropped to 3.5% from 3.8% in January. This was largely fueled by a sharp decline in transport costs, particularly automotive fuel, which fell by 7.2%, a much steeper drop than the 2.7% decline recorded before the recent Middle East conflict. Other sectors contributing to the downward trend included:Alcohol and tobacco: Eased to 4.3%Education: Slowed to 4.8%Clothing: Eased to 4.9%Communication: Dropped to 0.8%While several categories cooled, price growth remained persistent in other areas. Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages held steady at 3.1%, and financial services remained at 2.4%. Conversely, costs accelerated for recreation (4.0%) and housing, with the latter jumping to 7.3% from 6.8%. Services inflation remained unchanged at 3.9%.On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, a notable shift from the 0.4% increase seen in January. Additionally, the trimmed mean CPI, a key measure of underlying inflation edged down to 3.3%, coming in below both the previous figure and market expectations of 3.4%.These latest numbers arrive at a time when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already pushed interest rates up to 4.10% to fight stubborn inflation.The RBA is worried that current price hikes might lead to "second-round effects," such as a cycle where wages and prices keep pushing each other higher. Because inflation isn't dropping as fast as hoped, many experts now expect the bank to raise interest rates again in the near future.This in part explains the lack of conviction by AUD/USD bears with the pair failing to find any sustainable downside push since breaching the 0.7000 handle.The path forward for AUD/USD Given the lack of high impact Australian data in the coming days, the US dollar and geopolitical developments will be the driving force behind any immediate moves.The US Dollar has been supported by risk off sentiment since the start of the US-Iran war. News that diplomatic efforts are underway has boosted sentiment with rumors of talks between the two countries as early as Thursday.If sentiment continues to improve and hopes of a ceasefire grows, the US Dollar could continue to lose steam and this in turn could send AUD/USD back above the 0.7000 level. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - AUD/USD Based on the four-hour (4H) AUD/USD chart, the pair is currently caught between fundamental inflation concerns and a clear technical squeeze.Current Price Action: The "Squeeze"The chart shows AUD/USD trading within a descending triangle or a narrowing wedge pattern. After a sharp rejection from the 0.7130 area mid-month, the pair has been making lower highs, constrained by a descending trendline.Key Resistance Zone: There is a heavy "death cross" forming with the 50-period SMA (0.7038), 100-period SMA (0.7052), and 200-period SMA (0.7063) all hovering just above the current price. This creates a dense ceiling of resistance between 0.7040 and 0.7070.Psychological Support: The price is currently dancing around the 0.70000 psychological level. While it dipped toward 0.6940 recently, it has clawed back to the parity line, suggesting some dip-buying is occurring.RSI Neutrality: The RSI is sitting at approximately 45.50, which is neutral. It isn't oversold yet, meaning there is room for a move in either direction once the pattern breaks.AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart, March 25, 2026 Source:TradingView.com The Bearish Case (Breakdown)If the RBA's 4.10% rate and the persistent 3.7% inflation data cause markets to fear a "hard landing" (economic slowdown), we could see a break below the recent support.Trigger: A sustained candle close below 0.6980.Targets: The first major target would be the recent swing low near 0.6940, followed by the long-term horizontal support at 0.6913.2. The Bullish Case (Breakout)If the market interprets the slight dip in inflation (3.7% vs 3.8%) as a sign that the RBA's hikes are finally working or if the RBA signals an aggressive hike to 4.35%, the Aussie could catch a bid.Trigger: A break and hold above the descending trendline and the cluster of SMAs (specifically above 0.7070).Targets: A successful breakout would likely see a quick move toward 0.7080, with a medium-term goal of retesting the March high at 0.7130.Bottom Line: AUD/USD is coiled tightly. Until it breaks out of the 0.6980 – 0.7070 range, expect "choppy" sideways movement as the market digests the latest inflation data.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold, and Platinum are consolidating after consequential corrections in the past few sessionsAs Traders still attempt to price the next phase of the conflict, metals have formed a short-term bottom. Will it translate to a long-term one?Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD Today is an unusual session for the markets following a chaotic day yesterday.Participants cannot be blamed for the current uncertainty; we are now in the aftermath of a series of decisions made by major Central Banks. Fundamentals are inconsistent, leading to a widespread sense of confusion across all asset classes, resulting in a slow consolidation.Given that many of the world's most educated economists, like the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Central Bankers, seemingly struggle to understand the ongoing situation, it will be challenging to predict the market's direction once the uncertainty lifts.Metals are not immune to this confusion, especially after experiencing volatile 10% swings up and down yesterday – They are today, however, experiencing a relatively calmer session: Silver is up a shy 1%, Gold retreats from $4,400 and other Metals like Platinum are hanging close to unchaged.In general, after periods of significant volatility and a lull in news, the markets tend to trade within a range. This is precisely what we are witnessing today. The best approach now is to take a step back and prepare for what lies ahead. These types of sessions offer key breakout levels, as algos and traders await news to catalyze the next movement in the markets.Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch for breakouts. Read More:Wall Street uncertain amid US-Iran (potential) talks – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookIs the war taking a new turn? – WTI Technical analysisMarkets Today: Oil surges as Iran denial sours market sentiment, Japan inflation near 4-year lows. FTSE eyes 10000 psychological levelGold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold is now stuck in a triangle formation right at its quintessential $4,400 level – decisive for upcoming action.Remaining with +/- $75 of the psychological zone gives a further sense of uncertainty, hence this provides key breakout levels to play as the week continues:Above $4,475, Bulls will hold the advantage until $4,700Below $4,325 however, expect $4,100 to retest swiftlyIntraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:Short-term breakout level $4,475February Wick Pivot $4,675 - $4,725$4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support $4,100Higher Timeframe Support $3,880 to $4,000$3,200 to $3,500 Major SupportSilver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver has seen similar volatility and is now fighting to hold its $70 key level (+/- $1)Rebounding and closing on a 4H candle above $71 would point to a swift retest of $75 to $77.50 Momentum Pivot level, re-entering its 2025 bull channelExtending above $80 puts back the trend in the bull's handRejecting $69 however would point to a retest of the $62 previous session support.Breaking below $61 hints at the $50 to $55 October 2025 SupportHigher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:$71 intraday resistanceKey Momentum Pivot $74 to $77.50Major Resistance $84.50 (50-Day MA)Higher Timeframe and War Resistance $90 to $95Current Record $121.67Support Levels:December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66$61.10 Past Session lows$50 to $55 October Resistance now Major SupportSilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks rebounded strongly yesterday but haven't managed to hold their highsWith Oil still much lower than its Globex open, sentiment has eased but remains drearyExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US equity benchmarks staged a solid rebound yesterday, but once again failed to hold onto their highs — a pattern that is starting to feel all too familiar in this environment.Despite some easing in broader sentiment, helped by Oil trading well below its Globex open, the overall tone remains fragile. Markets are struggling to find clear direction as the fundamental backdrop stays clouded, leaving indices mixed into today’s session.Under the surface, weakness is beginning to show. This marks a second consecutive day of broad participation, but some of the largest names are weakening. Microsoft and Alphabet are both down around 2%, dragging on the Nasdaq and maintaining the pressure on tech.The broader issue lies in geopolitics. While US-Iran talks may have quietly started, markets remain highly skeptical about the feasibility of any meaningful breakthrough. That caution has only been reinforced by Saudi Arabia shifting toward a more aggressive stance, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile narrative.As a result, markets appear stuck at a pressure point — reacting less to headlines, yet unable to fully push higher. It’s a classic sign of hesitation, where positioning is light, conviction is low, and participants are waiting for clearer signals before committing. Morning Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar This morning’s PMI releases did little to help, coming in mixed with Manufacturing posing a large surprise but Services slowing down. Private Credit is also making the headlines once again, with Apollo Global Management, a large Asset Manager, restricting withdrawals to 5% amid continued outflows in the space – This remains one of the more concerning financial catalyst in Markets, which deserves some attention. Financials are remaining unscathed for now but don't forget to monitor this situation.Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:Is the war taking a new turn? – WTI Technical analysisMarkets Today: Oil surges as Iran denial sours market sentiment, Japan inflation near 4-year lows. FTSE eyes 10000 psychological levelCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:17 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – March 24, 2026 Today's sector action is broadly positive, supported by the beat in Manufacturing PMIs and pulling the Dow on top, while other Indexes struggle.Producer Manufacturing and Utilities are the large outperformers for yet another session while Tech struggles to find meaningful balance.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is forming a slightly bullish price action but is still struggling to break above its 200-Hour Moving Average – Clearing it leaves space for bulls.On the other hand, rejecting it would maintain the broader downwards channel.I strongly invite you to check out this wonderful in-depth Dow Jones analysis to spot how the latest fundamentals interact with the technicals:Read More: Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA), TACO trade may not work, watch the 46,710 resistanceNasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is stuck in a bizarre consolidation, having rejected its previous session's spike and now testing the lower regions of its range.The 24,150 to 24,200 Support, testing immediately, will be acting as major guide to the action – With a triangle formation's upper and lower boundaries defined by the Support Zone, look for either a break above or below to play breakouts.The immediate outlook is more balanced than anything as traders await for headlines.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels24,200 Triangle top24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,150 and Triangle lowsOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Morning lows: August 2025 next Support at 23,580 to 23,700Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is still holding its downwards channel formed throughout the middle of last week, currently testing its mid-level – breaching it would give the upper hand to Bulls.With the action still mixed, past session breakout levels remain intact:Above 6,650, the short-term momentum gets short-term bullishBuyers will need to breach 6,600 to relaunch intraday momentumBull momentum confirms above 6,700Below 6,560, bears are back in control.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 6,640 to 6,6506,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Monday Key Double Bottom support6,490 to 6,512 October lows6,442 Morning Lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks have formed a swift bottom since President Trump leaked US-Iran talk rumors – Which could be getting confirmedPrudent optimism is now slowly turning the wave on escalation fears in the Middle EastExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Volatility is the new norm in 2026. If anybody's surprised, they haven't done their homework properly!Donald Trump is a controversial President – He moves Markets in high fashion almost every session, sometimes even more often.After last year's TACOs, the President, Commander-in-Chief of the US Army, is shifting assets in up-and-down flashes through his new Department of War and ceaseless surprises.The first polemic was the capture of Venezuelan dictator/President Nicolas Maduro, and the second is the ongoing US-Iran-Israel War, which commenced at the beginning of the Month.But this isn't Trump's first investiture. On his first, he was also similarly moving Markets – today, he introduced a new shift in rhetoric regarding the Middle East conflict. He mentioned, initially in a Truth Social post and then in a public address, that US-Iran talks are back on the table, not even four full weeks into the War. The initial reactions were aggressive and swift, but Traders suddenly held their breaths as Iran denied such headlines.Read More: Crazy swings all across Markets as US-Iran talks pick up: Gold grazes $4,000, WTI to $90 – Market Check WTI Oil 30M. March 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView But looking into the details, a breaking news story could really confirm the latest claims from the US President, as Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf officially flew to Pakistan with American and Israeli approval – this would confirm the potential talks that should happen in the near future.The issue for risk assets and Market sentiment is that things won't be clear until the War officially ends; more particularly, when ships and tankers are finally able to cross the Strait of Hormuz.Markets are now stabilizing after a surreal spike in volatility in the morning session – Yields are much lower than their Friday scary highs, pricing for hikes is evaporating, and Gold dipped to $4,100 but is now stabilizing above $4,400. Rate Hikes/Cuts Pricing for the September FOMC meeting – Pale blue is past session, Dark blue is the current You know these are unforeseen times when hikes and cuts are priced in at the same time – even the Fed doesn't know what to price, so that shouts further pauses as Participants await the fog to clear.We will see more throughout this week and the next, which will conclude the 5-week operational timeline – will it extend further? If yes, the bottom could not be in yet for Stocks!In the meantime, the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq are leading to the upside, off their 3% and 2.40% respective highs, but still up a fair amount on the session.Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:Global liquidity squeeze, HSI sharply lower on Trump ultimatum & the week aheadGold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozFarewell, Rate Cuts – Markets Weekly OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (15:06 ET) – Source: TradingView – March 23, 2026 There are a few individual names struggling across sectors, but Tech is seeing the most of them.Producer Manufacturing, Retail Trade, Consumer Durables and Utilities are on the other hand shining from the renewed hopes.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – March 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA responded strikingly to the test of its January 2025 all-time high level (45,283), bouncing close to 3% from its lows in a flash when the headline came out.Now testing the highs of its downward channel, bulls will have to make sure to break it to relaunch better hopes for a rebound.The trend is short-term bullish above 46,660 and this confirms above 47,000.Rejecting back below the 2H 50-period MA (46,260) would confirm further doubts towards continued downside.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsChannel higher bound 46,660Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport LevelsMarch 8 War lows Pivot 46,200 to 46,300 – 2H 50 MAJanuary 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280 (Morning rebound)45,700 to 45,900 mini-support45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is still somehow remaining tightly into its 23,500 to 25,000 broader range, after reacting swiftly to its August 2025 support area at the headline.Still, the 2H 50-period MA seems to be a point of pressure for Sellers, so bulls will want to see a break and close above to confirm the rebound.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels24,375 2H 50 MA24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,200 (Range lows – Bearish below)October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Morning lows: August 2025 next Support at 23,580 to 23,700Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 was rushing lower in the overnight futures session but the change in the fundamental tone brought it back to life.Bulls have officially held the Index back above its double-bottom level (6,560) but is now contained by an upper and lower boundary:Above 6,650, the short-term momentum gets short-term bullishBull momentum confirms above 6,700Below 6,560, bears are back in control.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 6,640 to 6,6506,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Monday Key Double Bottom support6,490 to 6,512 October lows 6,442 Morning Lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (23/03/2026): We join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in today’s episode, recapping today’s Asia session after Trump’s ultimatum to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, we also look ahead to this week’s trading, with particular focus on upcoming PMI and inflation data. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Another week, another absolutely chaotic session all across the Market board.This morning came with some much better news for the conflict – US-Iran talks are picking up for the first time since the end of February, and that's creating a crazy shift in Markets, to say the least.After another gap above $100 per barrel in WTI at the Globex Open, Oil prices have been tumbling to lows not seen since March 11. WTI Oil 1H Chart – Source: TradingView. March 23, 2026 WTI is down around 12% on the session, back to ~$88 after the news.Brent is also back below $100 for the first time since March 13.The conflict isn't going to end suddenly, but this marks a flashy cooling in tensions, especially after recent fears of escalation over the weekend, with Saudi Arabia expressing heavy discontent with the latest Iranian attacks on Riyadh. The US also threatened to strike power plants in Iran as retaliation for the continued pressure on the Strait of Hormuz – The deadline for such is Monday evening, but this could now be averted.This culminated in a re-start of talks between the US and Iran, as announced by President Trump in a morning Truth Social Post and public address, and led to waves of crazy swings around all asset classes.Gold dove to $4,100, now bouncing higher Gold 2H Chart – March 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold, along with the entire Metals space, has been subject to wild volatility throughout the past weeks.After failing to regain its early 2026 $5,600 record despite the conflict, large profit-taking culminated in a significant price tumble of close to 25% to $4,101.It did rebound sharply back to around $4,400, a key momentum level for upcoming action (Neutral/Bullish above, bearish below).The culprit was the renewed inflationary fears that dragged global assets lower – But those are significantly easing as we speak, with the recent moves in Energy commodities. Current Session in Metals (11:34 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozFarewell, Rate Cuts – Markets Weekly OutlookUSD strength vs Euro vulnerability: What’s next for the EUR/USD pair? This has led to a swift easing in Market sentiment, with Equities across the globe sharply higher from their newfound lows.The largest gains were found in Japan, up close to 4% in this weekly open session – Risk assets have a lot to recover, but this provides at least a bit of relief in narrative.Still, the conflict is not entirely over and Strait of Hormuz traffic still aims to pick up again, so waves of volatility could still arise. Monday Session in Stocks (11:42 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Nasdaq is leading US Indexes in their gigantic rebound, currently up around 2%. A Stock Index update will be coming up in the early afternoon session. Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar marks a top after the FOMC DXY 2H Chart – March 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is now officially evolving within a bear channel, with some rebound attempts at the channel lows.Keep a close eye on the 99.50 level in the Dollar Index, rejecting it could provide interesting short opportunities agains the USD in major pairs.This would also need to coincide with a more decisive correction in Oil.Breaking 98.70 would confirm a longer-run correction in the US Dollar. Current Session in FX (11:57 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Cryptos keep recovering, Bitcoin back above $70,000 Current Session in Cryptos (11:48 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Bitcoin is back above $70,000 but momentum remains timid; Ethereum remains relatively aims to regain $2,200.Note: Things are moving extremely fast, and we are already seeing some profit-taking on the morning moves as the London Fix approaches – such moves provide swift opportunities, but they are mostly short-term rather than long-term.Of course, not discarding the fact that long-term opportunities could indeed be unfolding.As traders, these are great times to scalp markets, finding quick trades up and down across classes and with headlines. Key levels are reacting well, so make sure to check out your Technical Analysis to profit and be well prepared.Volatility won't cool down and stabilize until the official end of the conflict. It's still not entirely there, but things are starting to look better. Stocks and risk assets are correcting again as WTI ticks higher, so watch its movements closely today.Keep a close eye on headlines and flows throughout the day, as today is promised to be quite volatile.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) plunged to a four-month low, recording its worst week in 43 years, primarily driven by dominant macro factors over geopolitical concerns.Markets now pricing out 2026 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.The technical bias is firmly bearish after a breakdown below the key $4,500 support, compounded by persistent ETF outflowsMost Read: Farewell, Rate Cuts – Markets Weekly OutlookGold prices experienced a significant shift on Monday as the market reacted to geopolitical developments. Spot gold initially plunged as much as 9%, hitting a four-month low and marking its ninth consecutive session of losses. Source: LSEG However, the precious metal managed to recover some of those earlier declines after US President Donald Trump announced a delay in potential strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants. Ahead of the US Open, gold had pared its steepest losses to sit down 1.8% at $4420/oz.The precious metal turned green on the day briefly before resuming its decline from around the $4500/oz handle.Macro dominates: Rate cuts no longer priced in for 2026 as geopolitics take a backseat One of the key reasons for the sharp selloff in Gold which saw the precious metal record its worst week in 43 years last time out is the changes to the monetary policy path for the Federal Reserve.Markets are no longer pricing in rate cuts in 2026, this according to the latest LSEG data, Over the last week markets have slashed the probability of rate cuts to 0, with markets now pricing in around 2 bps of rate hikes through December 2026.This shift in trajectory stems from the concerns around energy prices and inflationary pressure moving forward. The chart below shows the correlation in play at the moment between rising Oil prices and the fall in gold prices. Source: ING One thing has become clear though, Geopolitics is not enough to keep gold prices on the offensive in the current environment.The macro picture is in part tied to the geopolitical developments which makes the outlook and developments even more intriguing and volatile for market participants.This was evidenced by the reaction to President Trump's tweet about postponing strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and his claim of talks with the Iranian government, The tweet was followed by a 12% drop in oil prices which in turn probably lent support to Gold recovery back toward the $4500/oz handle.ETF flows weigh on gold Exchange-traded fund (ETF) dynamics are also playing a role in gold's valuation, as persistent outflows in recent weeks have exerted significant downward pressure on prices.These liquidations have effectively aided the reverse of a large portion of the gains seen earlier this year since the onset of the conflict with Iran. This trend aligns with the historical correlation between ETF positioning, spot prices, and shifting expectations for US monetary policy.If we see a recovery in institutional flows, this could in part aid a gold rice recovery and may be worth keeping an eye on.Where to next? For those looking at the bigger picture, the recent pullback in gold prices may be seen as an opportunity. However, there are various factors at play for market participants to consider.I for one remain optimistic of a price recovery, but this will still hinge on how geopolitical headlines shape inflation, monetary policy expectations and real interest rates moving forward.Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD)From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD (Gold) is currently experiencing a severe bearish breakdown, characterized by a loss of key psychological levels and a shift in medium-term momentum.The price has aggressively breached the major support zone at $4,500, which now acts as immediate overhead resistance.Moving Averages & TrendWe are seeing a "Bearish Crossover" where the shorter-term SMA 50 has crossed below both the 100 and 200 SMAs. This indicates that the medium-term trend has officially shifted from bullish to bearish.The wide gap between the current price (approx $4450) and the SMAs suggests the move is "overextended" to the downside, but the slope of the averages remains steeply negative.Support and Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance: $4,500 (Black Horizontal Line). This was a major "floor" that has now been shattered.Secondary Resistance: $4,688.51 (Purple Line). This represents the last swing high before the most recent leg down.Current Support: Immediate support rests at $4400/oz before the $4250 and the daily low at $4100 comes into focus.The current price action is highly volatile, with long "wicks" on the candles indicating significant intraday battles between buyers and sellers.However, as long as the price stays below the $4,500 level, the technical bias remains firmly bearish.Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, March 23, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.Large repricings changed the Market picture after the FOMC and major Central bank week.Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – A new Market order After all these talks throughout the beginning of the year about a New World Order, what fundamentally changed was the actual shift in Market pricing, which came progressively since the late January FOMC and kept looming over investors until this fateful week.This week marked a new turn in Central Banking, with not less than 8 rate decisions across Majors, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Royal Bank of Australia, the People's Bank of China, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank, and the European Central Bank.The verdict? Only one actual change: A rate hike for the RBA.But the true verdict was the swift repricing for hikes all around the globe, which brought headwinds to virtually all asset classes. Add to it longer expectations for the ongoing US-Iran-Israel War, and you get a spicy combo. Prediction-Markets War Ending Date – Source: Polymarket – March 20, 2026 Neither Stocks, Metals, nor Bonds eat spicy, so they all puked. Global assets were only temporarily rejoicing in more optimistic hopes for the War just yesterday (Thursday 19th), but that faded quickly with President Trump's latest plan to occupy Iran's Kharg Island to apply pressure on Iran to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz.The idea shouldn't be too bad for Markets, but the issue here is that this would lengthen the Iran operations much longer. Strait of Hormuz Traffic – Source: Hormuz Strait Monitor – March 20, 2026 Traffic is barely picking up after 20 days of conflict, and many large importers like Japan, India, and South Korea (including many others) are facing heavy pressure. To learn more, I strongly invite you to check out this website – Some information is slightly outdated but explain the main factors affected by the de-facto closure with detail.The largest Market visualization for such is the widening spreads between WTI (North American) and Brent (London) Crude. WTI vs Brent Spread – Source: Barron – March 20, 2026 After the FOMC Meeting, which was neither hawkish nor dovish all things considered, Fed Members have started to reappear, and their outlook isn't so bright. Fed's Waller really took a turn from his previously softer communications, insisting on the potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations if Oil prices remain so high. And rightfully so, as they've remained surprisingly stable since the beginning of March.But Markets are ruthless, and with the turn in Central Bank communications, Gold, Bonds, and Stocks all took a significant hit. The two former got hit particularly hard, as the flight-to-safety not only failed to materialize but also backfired.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes Weekly Asset Performance – March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals were once again battered by the recent repricing across Central banks, putting a swift end to their year-long honeymoons.This could actually be a good point to enter (slow and progressively) in case you missed the boat.Gold and Silver could still easily retrace to their August levels ($3,500 and $40) so keep some bullets in case. Discover:US Yields explode, dampening Investor sentiment – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookMetals dive lower from the global Hawkish repricings, Opportunity or Trap? – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) OutlookUSD strength vs Euro vulnerability: What’s next for the EUR/USD pair?The Week Ahead – PMIs and Speeches Next week will be calmer in terms of pure Central Banking, but Traders will still have to be attentive to the many Governor and CB Presidents speaking throughout next week, to get a better idea of who really turned the page on rate cuts and who didn't.Asia Pacific Markets – Australian CPI After this week's heavy Central Bank week for APAC Markets, things should be getting somewhat calmer, or at least more focused.The pricing for the next Bank of Japan meeting is still uncertain, with a current 60% of hikes priced in – So traders will be paying close attention to the Japanese National CPI on Monday evening.But Australia (and the AUD) will be taking the focus yet again. The RBA just hiked again to 4.10% this week and Tuesday's CPI should bring further clarity on upcoming decisions.And don't forget RBNZ Governor Breman's speech on Monday.Europe and UK Markets – Heavier focus on Europe and the UK European Traders will await the streak of PMI releases on Tuesday, starting with France at 4:14 (ET), before Germany (4:30), The Eurozone (5:00) and the UK release at 5:30.PMIs have moved Markets to a lesser extent as of late, but a hunch tells me that Markets will react much more to Economic growth releases in coming weeks, as it will be the final gauges for hikes.The UK will come back at the center stage at on Wednesday with their CPI and PPI combo which will be definitely anchor (or delay) a potential BoE Rate Hike at the next meeting.Retail Sales on Friday could also help to cement the decision.For Euro traders, keep close attention to the thousands of speeches throughout next week.North American Markets – Lighter week, with only PMIs for the US The US will be back to the center stage, but without much to account for it.Only US PMIs on Tuesday morning will provide economic clues for rate expectations. And as mentioned before, Economic performance data should become important again.Of course, don't forget to check the classic Oil and US Dollar to help to find trades across Markets – Finally, pay close attention to Fed Speeches throughout next week to see where voters stand.Those include Fed's Barr, Miran, Jefferson, Paulson and Logan. Keep a close eye on geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US-Iran war progess, as they are likely to continue influencing Commodity and broader Markets.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) March 20th Market Wrap Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today marked another large shift in Markets, maybe the largest since the beginning of the Week, as traders pulled the plug on any hopes of cuts.Metals, Bonds and Stocks got hurt the most, in order – But Cryptos are remaining quite resilient. I wouldn't be surprised to see them perform well next week.Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (20/03/2026): Join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart in today’s episode, as we reflect on current tensions in the Middle East and how market normality seems increasingly elusive since 2020. We also discuss knock-on effects to monetary policy and, by extension, precious metal pricing. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are struggling once again after faking out higher yesterday, as post-FOMC Market flows extendWith the latest change in dynamics for US Treasuries, risk-assets dive lowerExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Today is providing yet another leg of renewed inflation fears, and this is not boding well for global assets.Yesterday's address by Israeli PM Netanyahu raised hopes for a shorter-than-expected conflict, leading to major dumping in the US Dollar and WTI Oil. Still, this narrative quickly took a significant U-turn. President Trump's latest pledge to militarily intervene in the Strait of Hormuz came with a surprise: a repricing of a now much longer US-Iran conflict to achieve more optimistic results.The new idea arises from the US Army's plan to capture Kharg Island, Iran's largest Energy production site, to pressure the IRGC into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.The issue, however, is the fact that this would require boots on the ground, and sources familiar with the issue pointed to at least a month extra of strikes to weaken the Islamic regime further.As Fed's Waller pointed out in a first post-FOMC interview, the issue is that a longer conflict poses the risk to disanchor inflation expectations, and this is what got the Rates Market to blow up this morning. Any hopes for rate cuts are now long gone. US yields are up significantly in this morning's action, implying higher inflation ahead and even potential rate hikes: The US 2-Year yield is now at 3.90% (while the current Fed Funds is at 3.75%). US 10Y Yield Monthly Chart. March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The issue here is that Stock Markets, particularly when the economy begins to decelerate, can be largely disrupted by higher yields and costs.But inflation may have to come first in the event of a longer conflict, to avoid not only job losses but also further erosion of the US Dollar's buying power. US Yield Curve Change since last Month – Source: TradingView Bond vigilantes, not liking the idea of a longer conflict, and selling Treasuries, indicate this discontent. The repricing to higher rates will weigh on risk assets for the time being.At least, the US Dollar used this to recover most of its past session's move – What a fakeout! US Dollar Index Daily Chart. March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView With Oil prices and the US Dollar decoupling since the FOMC meeting, both will now need to be tracked individually to spot where the Market wants to go.The 4H 50-period MA on the Dollar Index will serve as a major indicator of upcoming action.Extending above it would hurt Sentiment even further. Rejecting it, however, may soothe the selloff in Stock Markets a bit more – But don't expect to see much clarity before the end of the weekend. Let's spot how this translates into Stock Markets by diving in today’s mid-session charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Metals dive lower from the global Hawkish repricings, Opportunity or Trap? – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) OutlookChart alert: Watch 157.40 on USD/JPY, hawkish BoJ, ECB and BoE ignite yen strengthThe US Dollar dives after the FOMC, long-term reversal incoming? – Dollar Index (DXY) outlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:54 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 20, 2026 Once again, the Energy sector is the only survivor of this daily bloodshed, with Tech and Utilities being the largest victims of the explosion in Yields.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is back at its previous session lows, right in the key 45,700 August 2025 Support.Bouncing from here will be mandatory to hope for a more concise rebound, because the 50,000 level now looks far gone.Today will probably not be the day to see a breakout either to the upside or downside, when considering the huge doji candle – As long as Yields remain higher, the downside does take the upper hand.For an upside breakout however, investors will want to see a break and 1H close above 46,012.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels46,012 Doji Highs (short-term bullish above)March 8 War lows Pivot 46,300Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Channel top)Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport Levels45,700 to 45,900 August Support & Channel Lows) – Bearish belowAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now breaking its solid range, particularly hurt by the higher yields – Bulls did make an attempt to return back around the 24,150 Support Zone, but bears are taking the upper hand.Except for much better sentiment after the weekend, expect to see a test of the 23,800 Support Zone.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels24,300 Session highs, range holds above (low odds)24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,200 (Testing, bearish below)October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 broke its previous session's double bottom – But dip buyers have not said their last word.The outlook looks fragile, but rebounding here will be required for a return to 6,700, as the S&P 500 is now evolving within a Bear Channel.Look at today's highs (6,600) and lows (6,540) – Above will hold the bull channel, below will mark a further correction back towards 6,500.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,600Momentum Pivot 6,6406,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support LevelsSession lows (6,540)6,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices, Yields, and the US Dollar!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

ECB's hawkish tone and potential "April Hike" support the EuroGeopolitical conflict and spiking energy prices are the chief downside risk for the Eurozone.EUR/USD is split between technical recovery and fundamental risk, heavily tethered to Middle East headlinesMost Read: Metals dive lower from the global Hawkish repricings, Opportunity or Trap? – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) OutlookEUR/USD finds itself at another crossroad after recent developments have seen the pair test a multi year pivot level of 1.1450. Since then EUR/USD has attempted to grind its way higher but further upside is facing a few hurdles.Let us unpack what may be key for the pair down below as markets grapple with a host of challenges.What is driving EUR/USD price action? Current Price Dynamics: The Post-ECB CorrectionIn recent sessions, EUR/USD surged to a weekly high of 1.1616. This advance was primarily triggered by the ECB’s decision to hold interest rates steady while simultaneously signaling heightened concern over inflation.Although the central bank maintained the deposit facility at 2.00%, President Christine Lagarde’s press conference struck a notably hawkish chord. She warned that rising energy prices spurred by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran would likely push inflation above the 2% target in the near term.However, the Euro’s gains proved fragile. By Friday, the pair retraced toward 1.1560 as the US Dollar (USD) regained its footing. The Greenback’s resilience is being supported by a broader flight to safety as global markets grapple with "unabated geopolitical effervescence."While the Fed’s own hawkish stance previously dominated the narrative, the market is now focusing on the narrowing policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks like the ECB and the Bank of England.Euro facing hurdles As conflict in the Middle East threatens oil and gas supplies, the Euro remains particularly vulnerable. Despite the ECB’s hawkishness, there is skepticism regarding whether higher Euro yields can sustain the currency's strength if energy prices continue to spike.A "conflict-related oil dynamic" remains the chief downside risk for the Euro, as higher energy costs act as a tax on the Eurozone’s growth-sensitive economy.Outlook: What to Watch Moving Forward The outlook for EUR/USD is currently split between technical recovery potential and fundamental downside risks.The "April Hike" Wildcard:The most significant bullish factor for the Euro is the emerging talk of an April rate hike. Reports suggest that ECB officials are considering an aggressive move should inflation overshoot targets significantlyIf geopolitical tensions stabilize over a weekend or if gas supply shocks are avoided, EUR/USD could quickly eye the 1.1700 level, backed by this hawkish pivot.Geopolitical De-escalation vs. Escalation:The pair’s direction is heavily tethered to headlines from the Middle East. Any sign of de-escalation would likely weaken the safe-haven demand for the USD and allow the Euro to capitalize on its improved yield outlook.Conversely, further military escalation would likely drive EUR/USD lower, regardless of ECB rhetoric, as investors seek the liquidity of the Greenback.Economic Indicators:In the coming week, traders should keep a close eye on Flash PMI data and inflation prints. These will be critical in determining whether the Eurozone economy is resilient enough to withstand higher rates or if the "stagflationary" shadow of high energy prices and weak growth will cap any further Euro upside. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis The EUR/USD H4 chart reflects a pair caught in a tug-of-war between a recent bullish recovery and long-term bearish structure.After bottoming near the 1.1420 mark, the pair staged a sharp rally back above a multi-year pivot level at 1.1450 and reclaiming the 50-period SMA (purple) at 1.1525.However, the upside momentum is currently stalling at the 1.1573 resistance level.Key Technical LevelsResistance: The immediate hurdle sits at 1.1573, closely followed by the 100-period SMA at 1.1593. A break above these could target the major descending trendline near 1.1650.Support: Sellers are currently pushing the price back toward the 50-SMA (1.1525). Below that, the 1.1482 level and the recent swing low and multi-year pivot at 1.1450 act as critical safety nets.IndicatorsThe RSI shows a "Pivot" high just below the 70 overbought threshold, suggesting that the recent impulse move is cooling off. With the price trading below both the 100 and 200 SMAs, the broader trend remains bearish. Traders should watch for a daily close above 1.1600 to confirm a structural shift, or a break below 1.1525 to signal a resumption of the downtrend.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, March 20, 2026 Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver, Gold and the entire metals space have taken a beating since the FOMCThe recent Fed Meeting turned things around with global Hawkish repricingsDaily timeframe analysis for XAG/USD and XAU/USD The arrival of Spring brought a significant shift in market dynamics as the ongoing conflict affected Market flows. A series of Central Bank rate meetings has drastically changed the landscape. The US-Iran conflict has led to a rapid change in inflation expectations, primarily driven by increases in crude oil and related energy products. Asian and European countries are finding it difficult to meet their commodity demands due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the situation is gradually improving, uncertainty remains, and the concerns about inflation are very real. And Inflation is good for no one.What has particularly impacted the metals market are the indirect effects stemming from such change in inflation. Aside from a few exceptions, such as the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia, the consensus has been toward rate cuts and pauses. However, as inflation expectations rise, many Central Bank governors have begun to shift their stance towards hikes, which was highlighted in this week's press conferences.And this is definitely not helping the case for higher prices in Metals. Metals performance in 2026 – Source: TradingView, March 20, 2026. Metals have fallen victim to their own success. At the beginning of the war, investors rightly questioned why these precious safe havens had not returned to their previous highs. Historically, war creates strong demand for metals; they are not only needed for military equipment but are also sought after as a hedge against rising uncertainty in risk assets and general supply shocks. However, this time is different. Markets did not experience a flight-to-safety trend during the war, as military operations did not escalate to the extent that would require such a shift. Instead, the largest concerns quickly shifted to the militarized rise in petroleum prices. When market participants fail to see what they want to see, and the fundamentals shift unexpectedly, it can result in significant outflows from the metals asset class. The last session intensified the pre-FOMC decline in gold, silver, and other precious metals, alongside equities and bonds. The asset class now faces a potential major transformation compared to the strictly bullish trends seen at the end of 2024 and into 2025.With this morning's shy attempt of a rebound, let's explore this shift in a daily timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify if the previous session's drop provides an opportunity for late trend joiners, or a trap. Read More:Chart alert: Watch 157.40 on USD/JPY, hawkish BoJ, ECB and BoE ignite yen strengthAnother chaotic post-FOMC session – North American Session Market Wrap for March 19The US Dollar dives after the FOMC, long-term reversal incoming? – Dollar Index (DXY) outlookGold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart and levels Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold had warned traders of its War time inability to reach its prior highs, returning to "only" $5,400 before correcting. But looking back, Bullion had also just reacted to the high of its long-term channel, which created its initial $3,500 top in June 2025.Turning to today, the region to focus on is $4,400 to $4,500 Support Zone from February, serving as major barrier to further downside in the late January tumble.The tricky part is the fact that yesterday's end-session rebound attempt is seeing a major rejection as we speak, with a bearish daily candle forming – Hinting at a retest of the past day's $4,502 lows, Bulls will want to see a rebound here. Failing to rebound would point at least to $4,395 (February spike lows).Below will only find support around $4,100, then $3,500.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:February Wick Pivot $4,675$4,850 to $4,900 Key Support now Resistance$5,100 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs – $5,500 to $5,600Key Fibonacci Projection $5,800 to $5,900$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:Past session lows $4,500Pivotal Support $4,400 to $4,500 – Bullish above, Bearish belowFebruary lows $4,395Main Channel Lows Support $4,100$3,200 to $3,500 Major SupportSilver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart and levels Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, March 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver took a significant turn lower since breaking its $84 Major War Pivot, now resistance.The price action has remained decisively bearish since falling below its 50-Day Moving Average, and failing to rebound from its past day spike, will now test its $64 February lows – The current bearish price action and RSI are not suggesting any rebound for now, but still, keep an eye on the key level.Any break of such would then point to $55 to $57 (200-Day MA) which could be a strong dip-buying entry for the metal.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:Key Momentum Pivot $74 to $77.50Major Resistance $84.50 (50-Day MA)Higher Timeframe and War Resistance $90 to $95Current Record $121.67Support Levels:December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $68 (testing)$64 February lows$55 to $57 October Resistance and 200-Day MASilver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81 Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar rallied consequently since the beginning of the US-Iran conflict, supported by the rise in Oil pricesNow reaching the top of its long-term range, a major reversal could be comingPost-FOMC Dollar Index technical analysis The World's reserve currency has proved once again why, when it all blows up, it all comes back to the Dollar.The USD serves as the denominator for global commodity trade, so when commodities suddenly appreciate, particularly Crude Oil, it tends to force large currency conversions towards it. Many economic actors rushed to hedge against the conflict by buying more expensive energy commodities, creating a dollar demand cascade. That's why it's common to see the term 'Petrodollar' in recent days.But this move could already be over as traders prepare for the second phase of the conflict, after three weeks of consistent gains.Note: A crazy selloff is currently ongoing in the Dollar as Israel's PM Netanyahu marks the advancement of the conflict, and Hawkish Central Banks lead to a large FX repricing.The FOMC brought quite a lot of change to markets: Jerome Powell pushed against further rate cuts, citing inflation still too elevated and supply shocks that hurt dovish prospects.But one thing that drove this move was the fact that he wasn't particularly supportive of rate hikes – which gave bears enough leeway to stop the rush into the Greenback.Don't forget to check out the details of the Fed Meeting right here. US Dollar and WTI Oil Correlation (breaking) – Source: TradingView Having now reached the top of its July 2025 range, the US Dollar could now be heading for a large correction. But the range highs aren't the only element marking the change in the recent flows.The US Dollar and Crude Oil correlation is not as solid as it used to be – so expect to see more of these changes as time goes on.As you can see on the correlation Chart above, since yesterday, WTI has remained sideways while the US Dollar tumbled – this is a significant change compared to the first half of the month.We’ll explore the current technical signs arising and more in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY. Discover:Wall Street gaps down, weak dip-buying attempts – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookCrude Oil Price Forecast: Analyzing the bullish $150 case and bearish $95 threatA look around Markets in a scary post-FOMC morning – Market OutlookDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Traders who followed my Dollar Analysis since have seen extensively how significant the ongoing range is – No matter how bearish traders and newspapers got on the US Dollar, it refused to break its support.And now we are rejecting its highs. The ongoing move is spectacular, with an enormous reversal currently ongoing, forming a large bearish engulfing candle which should put back the Dollar into short-term bearish territory.The long-term range spans from ~96.00 to ~100.00As a reminder, the Dollar Index serves to get a better idea of what directions to look in other FX pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD and others – The rest is for you to find which pairs have the most interest for reversal.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The ongoing reversal in the US Dollar is significant! Watch out for reactions to the 99.00 level and January trendline.A rebound could go retest the 99.40 to 99.50 Pivot Zone. – Going short the US Dollar could be interesting in that event.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs4H 50-period MA 99.5999.40 to 99.50 High Pivot (bearish below, watch for a retest)War Highs 100.544Support Levels98.70 to 99.00 Support (immediate test – Jan trendline 98.88 + bearish if breaks)98.00 Key Mid-Range Support, below hints at 97.00Support 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Trump USD Flash Crash 95.551H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is now forming a tight bear channel – Reaching the 99.00 support, a small reversal wouldn't be surprising.Watch for entry points in other US Dollar FX pairs on pullbacks.Safe Trades and keep track of the Middle East conflict and WTI!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks gapped down severely after the FOMC meeting, dragged lower by rough Global Stock PerformanceTraders are now attempting a short-term dip-buying as Indexes reach key Support levelsExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The past day's FOMC session wasn't easy on Investor sentiment, as a coordinated Oil–Petrodollar–hawkish–repricing attack played War on Stock bulls.The downtrend in Global Indexes is now more severe – the pricing out of Cuts, leaving the way open for hikes in Central Banks, was confirmed by the streak of hawkishness resounding in Rate Decision Press Conferences.The Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and European Central Bank confirmed once again that the rise in Energy commodities and supply shocks would bar the way for any soft prints in Prices, and that, without accounting for the direct effect of Oil price rises on goods, they have also raised concerns about economic growth. Global Central Banks are now back to hawkish.It's been difficult to justify buying Stocks in this environment – See how Global Stock Benchmarks have struggled. Global Stocks Performance. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView One particular element that did not help risk sentiment was that Brent prices, which track more closely with ex-American energy prices, have largely decoupled from WTI – Brent spiked back to $116 per barrel overnight and holds right around $110, creating a new wave of anxiety around the globe.On the North American side, however, WTI Oil is holding below $100 per barrel, and this has been helping to contain the market open.What is sure at least, is that Metals haven't liked the new rise in Brent the slightest – Gold is down 3% from the previous session and now down 15% from its $5,400 War highs. Oil 1H Chart. March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The previous session's news around attacks on Iranian and Qatari/Saudi energy infrastructures created the gigantic movement and divergence in commodities.As long as WTI doesn't form a definite break above $100 and holds above, the Outlook for US Equities should remain more rangebound. More details on our Index analyses below.Note: Ironically, as I am writing this piece, Oil is attempting a rebound towards $101 from the latest breaking news. Trump TACO'ed again; the US won't ban Crude exports in retaliation from the lack of Allies participation to liberate the Strait of Hormuz.This will weigh on Stocks particularly if the rally in WTI continues. Commodity and Global Index Performance – Courtesy of Finviz US indexes are trying their best to rebound on Support but they will need to form a more decisive rebound from current levels; Below them, there is space for much tougher downside.Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s mid-session charts and post-FOMC trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:A look around Markets in a scary post-FOMC morning – Market OutlookBank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as war and rising energy prices complicate inflation fightMarkets Today: European Gas futures soar 25%, Brent hits $119/barrel. Central bank pressure heats up as ECB meeting loomsCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:50 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 19, 2026 Except for Energy Minerals and Industrial Services, the entire Market heatmap is getting sold off from the hawkish repricing and lower growth projections.Tesla is getting hit the hardest, along with Producer Manufacturing and Electronic Technology (was the Tech rebound a dead-cat bounce??)Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is now standing at a significant support at its August 2025 highs area and War Bear Channel lows.Rebounding here would point to a test of the 47,000 Resistance and Channel TopExtending the correction below 45,710 would lead to a Bear Channel break and further downside ahead.To get a better idea for the direction, check out the highs of the 1H Doji and lows of the Channel to play for breakouts.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels46,060 Doji Highs (intraday bullish above)March 8 War lows Pivot 46,300Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Channel top)Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport Levels45,700 to 45,900 August Support & Channel Lows) – Bearish belowAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is still holding its textbook 24,200 to 25,000 range in the latest action.Attempting a rebound from support, Bulls will face similar Doji tests as seen in the DJIA:Above the 1H Doji, the range will be confirmed to holdBelow the morning gap lows (24,150), expect further downside in the Index24,000 will first come as a test.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels1H Doji 24,390 (bullish above)24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,200 (Range lows – Bearish below)October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now also facing a critical test ahead, having formed a double bottom right below 6,580.Rebounding here would be necessary to relaunch better hopes in US Stock MarketsBreaking the morning lows and double bottom however would open the door for a much larger correction!Check out the past hour 1H doji highs (6,620) for confirmation – If break, next intraday resistance would be found at 6,740.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 6,6406,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Monday Key Double Bottom supportOvernight lows 6,5676,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices surged due to an escalation of Middle Eastern hostilities, including Iranian threats to target oil installations in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.The Strait of Hormuz is the center of market anxietyThe outlook is highly dependent on conflict escalation, with technical analysis suggesting a bullish case toward $120–$150 versus a bearish retreat below $95 if diplomatic efforts succeed.Most Read: Chart alert: Gold medium-term downtrend triggered as $4,960 support brokeOil prices surged in early trade today as Brent crude oil prices surged toward a high near the $114 per barrel mark.The rally, which saw Brent hit a high of $114 and WTI cross the $105 mark, was triggered by a dangerous escalation in Middle Eastern hostilities that now directly threatens the world’s most vital energy infrastructure.The Catalyst: Attacks on Energy Hearts The primary driver behind the price spike was a series of kinetic strikes on Iranian oil facilities and the subsequent expansion of the conflict. Reports confirmed Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran's South Pars gas field, but the US and Qatar were not involved, Trump said late Wednesday.In a retaliatory move that sent shockwaves through trading floors, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a formal warning that it would target oil installations in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar.Because these three nations represent approximately 20–25% of global crude exports, the threat transformed a regional conflict into a systemic risk for the global economy.Recent missile and drone attacks have caused major damage to energy facilities across several countries, some of the attacks are listed below:Qatar: Missiles hit the world’s largest LNG (natural gas) plants and a major Shell facility, stopping production and causing European gas prices to spike.Saudi Arabia: The military stopped several missiles and drones, but an aerial attack on a refinery in Yanbu briefly disrupted oil shipments.Kuwait: A drone strike started a fire at a refinery, though it was contained.For context, Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia, QatarEnergy's CEO told Reuters on Thursday.QatarEnergy had declared force majeure on its entire output of LNG, after earlier attacks on its Ras Laffan production hub, which came under fire again on Wednesday.In response to the rising tension, the Trump administration is reportedly considering sending thousands more US troops to the region to support ongoing operations.The "Hormuz factor" and regional divergence At the center of the market's anxiety is the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 21 million barrels of oil and refined products pass through this narrow waterway daily. With Iran threatening a full blockade and shipping lanes becoming increasingly unsafe, a massive "risk premium" has been baked into every barrel.Think of it as a "regional divergence" at least that is how the shock is being felt. Asian markets including China, India, and Japan are at the epicenter of the crisis because they rely most heavily on Gulf barrels.While Western benchmarks like Brent and WTI rose sharply, the physical shortage is currently most acute in Asia due to shipping times. It takes roughly 10–15 days for Gulf oil to reach Asia, whereas rerouted cargoes heading to Europe or the US via the Cape of Good Hope can take up to 45 days.This "lagged transmission" suggests that while prices are already high, the full impact of the supply disruption has yet to reach the Atlantic basin and thus prices could potentially surge even more if the conflict continues to drag on.Economic Fallout: From Pumps to Portfolios The surge to $109 is already manifesting in "creeping price increases" for consumer goods. Transport operators and airlines have already warned of imminent fare hikes, while manufacturers brace for a "margin squeeze."If prices remain at these levels, the global economy faces a renewed inflationary wave that could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, stifling growth just as many regions were eyeing a recovery.Outlook: Where to Next? The trajectory of oil prices now hinges on two critical variables: the duration of the disruption and the risk of further escalation.The Bullish Case ($120–$150): Technical analysis suggest that if Brent closes decisively above the $113.75 resistance level, the market could rapidly retest the 2022 peaks of $130, with a move toward $150 possible if the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed or if Saudi facilities sustain major damage.The Bearish Case (Below $95): Conversely, if diplomatic efforts which have so far failed suddenly gain traction, or if the US and its allies announce a massive coordinated release from Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), prices could retreat. A fall below the $97.65 support level would be required to signal that the current "geopolitical fever" is breaking.Another area to keep an eye on is the US where in order to help lower global energy costs and increase the available supply, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Thursday that the government might lift sanctions on Iranian oil currently stuck on tankers.By releasing this "stranded" oil into the market, the administration hopes to provide much-needed relief to rising global prices.For now, the market remains in a state of "physical tightness." With inventory buffers in the West beginning to draw down and no end in sight to the regional war, the path of least resistance for oil prices appears to be higher. Investors and consumers alike should prepare for a volatile second quarter as the world navigates one of the most significant energy disruptions in recent history.Brent Crude Oil One-Hour Chart, March 2, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The Brent Crude H1 chart shows a sharp rejection from the $114.00 level, followingtodays spike. The price has broken below the 20-period SMA (green line), signaling a loss of immediate upward momentum.Key Technical Observations:Resistance: The $114.00–$115.00 zone remains a major ceiling. A daily close above this level could open up a run toward the $120 mark and beyond.Support: Immediate support sits at $104.22 (50-day MA) which also just rests above the key swing high from Monday March 16 at 103.51, followed by the significant psychological level of $102.14 (100-day MA) before the psychological 100.00 mark comes back into play.RSI: The Relative Strength Index has dropped sharply from overbought territory to 49.37, suggesting the market is cooling off and entering a neutral phase where momentum maybe shifting in favor of bears.Outlook:The short-term trend is turning cautiously bearish. If the price fails to hold above $106.00, we could see a deeper retracement toward the $104.22 support level. However, given the geopolitical risks, any further supply shocks could quickly invalidate this technical pullback and push prices back toward $120.00.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Medium-term downtrend confirmed: Gold (XAU/USD) broke below the $4,960 key support (50-day MA) with a sharp sell-off, invalidating the prior rally as a “dead cat bounce” and signalling the start of a multi-week bearish phase.Hawkish Fed driving downside pressure: A less dovish Federal Reserve, reduced rate cut expectations, and rising 10-year US Treasury real yield have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, weakening demand.Further downside risks ahead: With price action in a descending channel, gold remains bearish below $4,960 resistance, exposing next supports at $4,703–$4,554, unless a recovery above resistance negates the downtrend. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have triggered a pivotal movement yesterday, staging a bearish breakdown below with a daily close below its 50-day moving average that is acting as a key medium-term support at $4,960 (-3.7% on Wednesday, 18 March 2026 with a daily close of $4,818).In terms of price structure, yesterday’s plunge suggests that the 23% rally from the 2 February 2026 low of $4,402 to the 2 March 2026 high of $5,420 is considered a corrective rebound, aka “dead cat bounce,” and the next movement is now skewed towards a potential multi-week bearish impulsive down move sequence.Let’s now discuss some key macro factors that are driving this current multi-week medium-term downtrend phase of Gold (XAU/USD).Less dovish Fed dot plot erases rate cut bets in 2026, stagflation risk reigns Fig. 1: Probabilities of Fed funds rate cuts, hikes, and pauses as of 19 Mar 2026 (Source: CME FedWatch tool) Fig. 2: US 10-YR Treasury real yield medium-term trend as of 19 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Yesterday, the Fed left its Fed funds rate on hold as expected at 3.50%-3.75%. and maintained its forecast of one interest rate cut in 2026, with an upgraded median core PCE inflation trend forecast to 2.7% for 2026 from the previous projection of 2.5% made in December 2025.Also, the most notable median projection shift was the long-run fed funds rate, up to 3.1% from 3.0%. In addition, the new 'dot plot' highlights a notable shift toward fewer projected rate cuts, and one policymaker is suggesting a rate hike next year in 2027; meanwhile, Governor Waller withdrew his dovish dissent for a cut yesterday. Hawkish vibes are brewing inside the Fed.Overall, the data compiled by the CME FedWatch tool has indicated that the Fed funds futures market has started to price in zero-interest rate cuts in 2026, down from as many as three cuts at the start of the year. The aggregated probability for the Fed funds rate to be at 3.25%-3.50% (a 25-bps cut from the current rate of 3.50%-3.75%) now stands at 44.8% for the last FOMC meeting in 2026 on 9 December (see Fig. 1).The 10-year US Treasury real yield jumped by 4 bps yesterday and closed above its 50-day moving average at 1.87%, now en route to potentially retest its medium-term range resistance of 1.98% (see Fig. 2).Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant direct correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.A higher 10-year US Treasury real yield will imply a higher opportunity cost for owning and holding Gold (XAU/USD), in turn, creating a “lesser demand” sentiment that drives down prices of Gold (XAU/USD).Let us now dissect the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspective.Gold (XAU/USD) – Another downleg in progress below $4,960 Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 19 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 19 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the $4,960 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the 50-day moving average) to maintain the current bearish impulsive down move sequence for the next intermediate supports to come in at $4,703/4,655 and $4,587/4,554 (Fibonacci extension and lower boundary of minor descending channel from 2 March 2026 high) (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above $4,960 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistances at $5,040 and $5,125 (also the 20-day moving average).Key elements to support the bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have started to oscillate within a minor descending channel since the 2 March 2026 high of $5,420 (see Fig. 3).Before Gold (XAU/USD)’s bearish breakdown of its 50-day moving average yesterday, its daily RSI momentum indicator flashed on a bearish breakdown condition below its key ascending trendline support at the 50 level earlier on Monday, 16 March 2026 (see Fig. 4). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 18 Today welcomed a much-anticipated FOMC session, and Participants probably did not hear what they wanted to hear.After an already quite intense morning, in which assets were going back and forth to fight another rise in Energy Commodities, the Press Conference pinned down risk sentiment.The initial catalyst for the rise in Commodities was the new escalation of attacks on Energy infrastructure in the Middle East.WTI Oil quickly bounced from $92 to $99, invalidating the Head and Shoulders and forming what resembles the basis of a range, but Brent is where the action gets scary.The London-Exchange Petroleum quote saw a significant bounce, now consistently above $105, as President Trump threatened to stop defending the Strait of Hormuz to drag Allies into defending the most important 10 km stretch in the world.Crude initially eased ahead of the FOMC press conference but found what it needed to keep rebounding as Iran retaliated for the overnight attacks on its gas infrastructure.Oil is currently squeezing at the close, so expect the path ahead to be rocky.Regarding the Federal Reserve, they decided to maintain their rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, unchanged for the third consecutive meeting.The initial text wasn't decisively hawkish, but looking at the high expectations for better news, Markets were disappointed.As Powell's penultimate Press Conference was unfolding, the US dollar saw another meaningful bounce. This further pressured an already rough trading session, particularly against Stocks and Metals.In his remarks, the Fed Chair emphasized the inflationary pressures and supply shocks from the post-COVID era, which are not pointing to any dovish direction, and that helped the USD rally. Still, the speech itself wasn't so hawkish either, just because he didn't lean into hikes after a couple of questions asking whether such were on the table. It seems that traders will now only be looking at Oil and how it will increase inflation prospects. Read More:FOMC pauses rates yet again, Dollar explodes – Economic Projections and (Updated) Market ReactionsDow Jones back below 47,000 as traders prepare for high-impact FOMC – US Stock Market Outlook & LevelsMorning Market Check – Energy infrastructures attacked in Iran, Bank of Canada holds rates, & US PPIGold (XAU/USD) price slides 3.3%. Is Gold offering a discount or facing freefall heading into FOMC?Stock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 18, 2026 The Stock Market wasn't off to a great start in this morning's action, but things got worse as the Press Conference and rises in Crude further dampened risk-appetite.A few individual names in Producer Manufacturing, Energy and Tech have arisen, but the overall wave is red.The Dow Jones once again led to the downside, and the technicals aren't looking so optimistic – Tomorrow will be a very important test for bulls.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's session was not friend to asset managers, particularly those hoping for drops in Oil and the US Dollar.Energy commodities have exploded, particularly after their overnight slump, after the latest escalation news – The Petrodollar naturally raced higher, a process also magnified by a Flattening rate curve and a far from dovish Press Conference.Leading to the downside are Metals and Cryptos, but Stocks did not fare much better.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 18, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX performance today was centered around the two Central banks giving their rate decisions, with the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve meeting hawkish pauses helping the prospects for their respective currencies.But the rise in Oil also had its role to play.On the other side of the performance spectrum, European currencies (particularly the CHF) and Antipodeans. These ones don't tend to enjoy bullish Crude sessions.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. It's not because today's session was so busy that traders can suddenly relax.Quite the contrary actually, and there will be some for everybody!Not even counting the rise in Oil, expect movement for the Kiwi (NZ GDP), the AUD (Australian Employment), the Yen (with a very important Bank of Japan Rate Decision, tonight between 19:30 and 20:00). Check out our preview for the event right here.There will also be a flurry of other Central Bank decisions, including the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the ECB – All will be important to track to see how they preview upcoming inflation risks regarding to the Iran developments.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Fed is keeping rates unchanged at the 3.50% to 3.75% range – The stance was surprisingly not so hawkish!The votes for the pause are at 11-1 – Only Miran dissented.The rougher part for Markets is the fact that rates are not priced to move much throughout the year.You can get access to the detailed report and Fed Statement right here.The Statement made mentions to uncertainty regarding the situation in the Middle East, a solid US economy and low Job gains but stable Unemployment rate.Regarding inflation, the Fed's stance wasn't so hawkish compared to what it could have been. Notable quotes from the Statement – Source: Federal Reserve Dot Plot March Meeting Projections– Source: Federal Reserve The Fed projected a slightly more elevated inflation in 2026, with the War affecting expectations.For the rest, the FOMC is not expecting much change in the Unemployment Rate – This opens the way for dovish repricing in the event of large misses in NFP.Get access to the full SEP report here. March Meeting Dot Plot – Source: Federal Reserve The Dot Plot has largely restrained around the 3.5% to 4% range for 2026, indicating that Rate cuts are really far gone.Only material changes to Employment or economic performance will bring changes to such pricing. Current Press Conference Asset Board (15:08) – Courtesy of Finviz WTI and Brent particularly is rebounding from the latest announcement that Trump would most likely stop defending the Strait of Hormuz to force Allies to intervene.Stock Markets are now getting hit by another wave of Dollar + Oil explosion, an explosive cocktail.Fed's Powell just ended his conference – You can access his speech right here.The Fed Chair has been relatively neutral but maybe too neutral for those expecting better news regarding Cuts – No indication of cuts, participants could be soothed by the fact that he didn't mention hikes.The overall reaction is for now hawkish. The Curve is flattening.Market ReactionsDollar is now exploding higher (15:13) US Dollar (DXY) 15M Chart – Source: TradingView – March 18, 2026 The US Dollar is now rising from the confirmed assumption that Fed Rate cuts are now fading away – Also coinciding with another rise in Oil, other assets are taking a hit.Watch whether the rally extends and closes above 100.00 for the Dollar Index.US Stocks struggled, staying flat Dow Jones (CFD) 15m Chart (15:18) – Source: TradingView Gold is now below $5,000 Gold (CFD) 15m Chart (15:23) – Source: TradingView Other metals are also struggling Metals performance (15:24) – Courtesy of Finviz Bitcoin and Cryptos are struggling Bitcoin(CFD) 1H Chart (15:26) – Source: TradingView Keep a close eye on post-speech flows which can be quite sudden – This session's close in Stock Market will be of huge importance.Safe Trades and Good luck for Powell!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks struggle yet again, suffering from another rise in WTIThe Middle East conflict is escalating and risk-sentiment backs down ahead of a quintessential FOMC meetingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Yesterday's Stock-Crude de-correlation was short-lived, as today quickly came with another (bad) surprise.Participants who were late to exit their positions ahead of this afternoon's key FOMC event woke up to a Stock Market bleeding once again from the escalations in the Middle East conflict. Oil and Dow Jones Negative Correlation. March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView Yesterday saw the celebrations of not only St Patrick's Day, but also the celebrations for the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) – While Iranian people celebrated, the IRGC multiplied attacks on their populations, and the rest of the Middle East.With a large attack of cluster-warhead ballistic missiles of Israel on civilian targets and similarly on Gulf countries, the IAF and US army retaliated on Iran's largest Natural Gas production site – The South Pars Gas Facility, very close to Qatar (which supplies close to 80% of Iran's Nat Gas demand).Energy commodities have hence rebounded from a previous correction – WTI is back closer to $100 from $92 overnight, and this isn't helping risk-taking the slightest. Oil 1H Chart. March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView With escalation risks now repriced, traders will have to watch whether Oil breaks $100 closely – the action is stalling around $98 and $99 for now.A slow rise above would be trouble for Wall Street, as seen already in this morning's Stock Market drop – the Dow is leading to the downside (~ -1%) but other Indexes and assets aren't faring much better. Daily Asset Performance – Courtesy of Finviz The FOMC meeting will prove to be very essential for upcoming inflation and rate expectations and SEP Projections. Communications, particularly during Powell's Press Conference will have to be tracked very closely.If you haven't done so yet, go check out our FOMC preview!Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s mid-session charts and key FOMC trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Morning Market Check – Energy infrastructures attacked in Iran, Bank of Canada holds rates, & US PPITechnical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMCGold (XAU/USD) price slides 3.3%. Is Gold offering a discount or facing freefall heading into FOMC?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:00 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 18, 2026 Healthcare, Non-Durables and Retail Trade are leading a red-session to the downside, as Investors rush to close positions ahead of this afternoon's high risk-event.When Oil rises, Tech electronics and services are surprisingly holding strong – keep track of this development as the conflict continues.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is holding its descending channel to the T, rejecting it and heading back towards its War lows (around 46,270). It is the Index to watch for overall sentiment.Today's FOMC event will be very key, particularly when looking at where we stand:If bulls reject the War lows, it will be a good sign for dip-buyingIf not, it's going to be more painful for Stocks aheadWatch the session close and tomorrow's open!Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot 47,000 to 47,200 (channel highs, bullish above)Pivotal Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport LevelsCurrent War lows Mini-Support 46,300 (Bearish Below)46,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq remains well within its 24,200 to 25,000 range, rejecting the psychological level in this morning's action.Remaining below 25,000 after today could drag profit taking even further.While it remains resilient in comparison to its peers, the Tech Index will be very sensitive to any wide move in the DJIA and Oil – Keep track of sentiment at today's close.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels2H 200-period MA (24,820)Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (mini range highs – Bullish above)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistancePivotal resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (all-time highs if break)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,200 (Range lows – Bearish below)24,400 to 25,600 Key SupportOctober and Overnight lows 23,972October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is also tightening its volatility after Monday's double bottom – But the action is still far from bullish.The level to watch is 6,700 – Closing above it would be optimistic for Risk-sentiment.On the contrary, closing below could bring further selling. The post-FOMC close will be very important.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,700 Key Level (bull above, bear below)Pivot 6,730 to 6,750Pivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Past Week Resistance 6,820 to 6,840Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Key Support (testing)Overnight lows 6,6066,490 to 6,512 October lows Immediate Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Good luck for the FOMC!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Welcome to a more unusual Market update to show what could be a significant development for Markets for periods ahead.WTI Crude Oil is forming a Head & Shoulders ahead of the FOMC meeting, a first bearish pattern since the beginning of the War. WTI Oil 2H Chart. March 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView It sure is a risky, counter-trend, and counter-Market view, but here are the elements that could point towards the end of a WTI Rally.First and foremost, advancements in the War:Most of the key figures of the Iranian Islamic Regime have been eliminated throughout the first three weeks of the conflict, leaving a snake without its head for the authoritarian regime.Overnight, Ari Larijani, the right-hand of the Ayatollah, along with Basij Forces Commander Soleimani, was eliminated in strikes.These two figures were exercising heavy influence over the IRGC army for the former and the Political police for the latter.This could prove to be a turning point in the ongoing US-Iran-Israel War.The two-country coalition is now expressing more concrete plans to move further towards the securitization of the Strait of Hormuz.If even Al Jazeera is saying that the US-Israel operation is working, the War could really avoid dragging out for long – this fundamental turn should ease pressure on the Crude Market.While supply issues remain, particularly for Asian nations, less uncertainty often translates to easier Market conditions ahead.Oil won't just flash back to the $55 lows from the beginning of the year, but less pressure on the head will help soothe Participants and inflation expectations. Second, technical elements:WTI Oil gapped higher to $101.30 at the weekly Open, which could have added further momentum to an already tense Market.But the selling seen in the previous session formed a Head & Shoulders pattern. It is a strong sign of trend exhaustion, as bulls attempted to break previous highs but failed twice, also forming a lower high at the same time (overnight spike to $99).The measured move target would hint at $85 oil in the short run. More advancements to the conflict would be required to sustain a more persistent correction in the commodity.The pattern is invalidated if bulls close above $99.04 (overnight highs).Keep a close eye on the 2H 50-period MA ($95.19), which is acting as short-term support. Breaking it could trigger the selloff.Technical Levels for WTI Resistance Levels99.04 Overnight highs (H&S Void above)$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 ResistanceWar highs $116 to $120Support LevelsImmediate Support 2H 50-MA $95.17 (bearish below)H&S Neckline $92.64$85 Head & Shoulders Target2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80$69 to $70 Main Support2025 lows $55.00Stock Markets are sending Mixed signs Current picture for the Stock Market (12:03 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 17, 2026 The Stock Market is all over the place today.After the overnight failed spike in Oil, Stock Indexes opened well but have failed to sustain momentum and are now correcting again.Participants will be awaiting further clarity from tomorrow's Fed Meeting – The Summary of Economic Projections will be released, providing at least more clarity on what to expect from the Fed in 2026.An FX and Fundamental preview for the event will be landing this afternoon.Markets will be all eyes and ears to listen to what Jerome Powell has to say during one of his final press conferences tomorrow at 14:30.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 17, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones rejected the upper bound of its descending channel, opening the way for a more mixed price action ahead – 47,000 is the level to watch for the FOMC (Bullish if close above, bearish if close below).Expect slow trading all the way towards tomorrow's 14:00 Decision.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMorning highs 47,429Pivotal Resistance 47,400 to 47,600Key Resistance at 48,000 (bull above)48,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport LevelsKey Pivot 47,000Current War lows Mini-Support 46,300 and past day Double Bottom (bearish below)46,000 +/- 100 pts November SupportAugust highs 45,71545,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.