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Canada April retail sales +0.3% vs +0.5% expected

The advanced April report was +0.5%The March reading was +0.8%Ex-autos -0.3% vs +0.2% expectedPrior ex-autos -0.7% (revised to -0.8%)Advance May report-1.1%USD/CAD was trading at 1.3713 ahead of the data. The key number here is the advance May reading, which suggests a sharp drop in consumer spending. That report doesn't break down the sources of weaker spending so it could just be autos on the tariff front-run but it raises the stakes for the next report.More details:Year-on-year headline up +5.0 %Motor-vehicle & parts dealers +1.9 %m/m (new-car dealers +2.9%, used-car +2.1%Gasoline-station sales -2.7% m/mSporting goods / hobby / misc. +1.0 % Furniture / electronics / appliances +0.8 % Food & beverage +0.2 % Clothing & accessories -2.2 % (worst subsector) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Gold Technical Analysis – Safe haven flows reverse further

Fundamental OverviewGold continues to pull back from the highs reached after the first Israel attack against Iran. The market kind of sensed that a de-escalation was the most likely outcome and the safe haven flows reversed. This week it’s been all about the Middle East because we haven’t got any key data point and the Fed kept everything unchanged as expected. Therefore, we remain in a mostly rangebound price action. In the bigger picture though, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing and just a hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations could trigger corrections in the short term. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold continues to edge lower from the key 3438 level towards the major trendline. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3120 level next.Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the minor upward trendline. This should be a signal for more downside to come with the 3293 level as the first target for the sellers. That’s where we can expect the dip-buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have now a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to start targeting again the 3438 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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France June business confidence 96 vs 96 prior

Prior 96Manufacturing confidence 96Prior 97Services confidence 96Prior 95The overall business climate is seen steady in June with a mild rebound in services sentiment observed. Of note, employment conditions also picked up with the indicator there climbing from 94 in May to 97 in June. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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BOJ governor Ueda: Japans economy recovering moderately albeit with some weakness

Expect underlying inflation to gradually heighten after a pauseUnderlying inflation likely to converge towards levels consistent with price targetThat should happen in latter half of 3-year projection periodExpect to keep raising interest rates if economy, prices follow projectionsJapan's real rate remains significantly lowThese are mostly token remarks by Ueda and nothing that really stands out following their policy decision from earlier this week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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What are the main events for today?

In the European session, the main highlight was the UK Retail Sales report. The data missed expectations across the board by a big margin but it shouldn't change much for the market at this point. Also, retail sales data is notoriously volatile. In the American session, we have the Canadian Retail Sales and the US Philly Fed index coming up. Neither is going to change the market's pricing and we might very well not see much reaction in the market. We might just keep on ranging today as we head into the weekend risk. There's some optimism in the air at the moment given many de-escalation signals. Traders are now just monitoring the situation for potential direct US involvement or problems in the Strait of Hormuz. If these two factors remain unchanged, even if Israel and Iran continue to bomb each other the markets will just ignore that. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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Eurostoxx futures +0.9% in early European trading

German DAX futures +0.9%UK FTSE futures +0.5%After three straight days of losses, European stocks will look for some reprieve now before the end of the week. But the early gains here are tentative at best, with all eyes still staying on how things will play out in the Middle East. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1% on the day with US markets set to return to the fray later as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Germany May PPI -0.2% vs -0.3% m/m expected

Prior -0.6%The drop on the month owes much to a decline in energy prices (-0.9%). If you strip that out, German producer prices were actually flat in May. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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UK May retail sales -2.7% vs -0.5% m/m expected

Prior +1.2%; revised to +1.3%Retail sales -1.3% vs +1.7% y/y expectedPrior +5.0%Retail sales ex autos, fuel -2.8% vs -0.5% m/m expectedPrior +1.3%; revised to +1.4%Retail sales ex autos, fuel -1.3% vs +1.8% y/y expectedPrior +5.3%; revised to +5.2%That's an awful miss on UK retail sales with food store sales in particular declining sharply on the month. After a growth of 4.7% in April, that is seen down 5.0% in May and marking the largest monthly fall since May 2021. The stronger rise in April was attributed to better weather conditions at the time.Besides that, there were declines everywhere else too though. Department store sales were down 1.5% on the month, with non-food store sales also marked down by 0.5% on the month. Here's the full breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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China and EU had 'in-depth' conversation on remedying trade issues

This follows a video meeting between China's commerce minister, Wang Wentao, and EU trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, yesterday. No further details are given on how they'd go about in finding a solution to the trade issues though. It's just a broad statement.China, EU had 'in-depth' talks on trade issues such as EVsAgreed to promote healthy, stable development of economic, trade relations This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Japan says will not fixate on 9 July deadline in trade talks with US

Akazawa is mainly reaffirming that even with the deadline closing in, that shouldn't mean that Japan should compromise its position and stance in trade talks with the US. He told reporters earlier today that:"To avoid any misunderstanding, I would like to confirm that I have not said at all that July 9 is the deadline for negotiations between Japan and the US."In response to whether there will be any extensions to the deadline, Akazawa didn't answer on that. So if Trump really does want to go hard, he can seek to reimpose the 24% initial reciprocal tariffs on Japan again. But all else being equal, it is likely we'll see the can kicked down the road. And not just for Japan, but almost every other country as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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FX option expiries for 20 June 10am New York cut

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.Again, they are for EUR/USD but this time at the 1.1500 and 1.1520 levels. The dollar is a little on the weaker side today and the expiries could play a role in terms of holding up price action just above the figure level in the session ahead. That especially with the key hourly moving averages holding nearby at 1.0504-16 currently.Do be mindful that headline risks remain paramount before we get to the weekend, with eyes staying on the Middle East.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Risk assets found support from 'within 2 weeks'

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak in a few hours timeTrump will hold a US National Security Meeting on FridayNew Zealand PM to meet China President Xi to discuss trade and regional tensionsJP Morgan maintains bearish dollar outlook as growth slows and global policy divergesUK's Lammy and US' Rubio met on Iran-Israel fightingTrump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclearIranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi & 3 EU foreign ministers meet FridayRelatively quiet re news from the Middle East is supporting risk FXPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1695 (vs. estimate at 7.1801)People's Bank of China leaves Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, as expectedIsraeli media notes that Iran is planning attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in EuropeMSCI says that South Korea has improved short-selling accessBoJ minutes note the rising downside risks for Japan's economy, rates must be kept lowStill to come from the BOJ - May meeting minutes, Governor Ueda speakingJapan May 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, stillUK consumer confidence in June rises to -18 from -20 in MayUS thinks Iran likely to make nuclear bomb if Fordow is attacked, Khamenei assasinatedICYMI - Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0%TD says the Bank of England has left GBP with not a lot to chew onHeads up for New Zealand dollar traders - markets are closed Friday for a holidayRussia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak wants oil output boosted4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bblForexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 June: The focus is on what next in Iran/Israel conflictTrade ideas thread - Friday, 20 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasRisk assets found support during the session here following Thursday’s headlines from the U.S., where Trump said he would decide whether to strike Iran “within two weeks.” While the phrasing doesn’t rule out an immediate move, markets chose to focus on the delay, and optimism prevailed. The USD slipped against major FX, U.S. equity futures pushed higher, while crude oil and gold edged lower.Looking ahead, Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi is due to meet with the foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany in Geneva on Friday. Notably, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Witkoff, will not attend. Separately, Trump is scheduled to convene a National Security Council meeting on Friday.From Japan, May inflation data showed headline CPI at 3.5%, down slightly from April’s 3.6% but still marking 38 consecutive months above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The BoJ’s preferred core measure, CPI excluding fresh food, rose for a third straight month to 3.7% y/y, the highest since January 2023 and a touch above expectations. The rise continues to be driven by staple foods—rice prices are now up 102% y/y, a significant pressure point for consumers. In contrast, services inflation ticked up to 1.4%, modestly higher than April.Minutes from the BoJ’s April 30–May 1 policy meeting, released today, showed board members broadly supporting further rate hikes over time, though some favored a pause in the near term due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. A few policymakers also noted that Japan’s path to achieving stable 2% inflation had likely been delayed by about a year.From China, the People’s Bank of China left its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Friday:1-year LPR held at 3.00%5-year LPR remained at 3.50%This decision follows last month’s broad monetary easing and suggests a pause to assess impact on growth momentum.---Crude update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak in a few hours time

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at the Annual Trust Association Meeting.Timing for this is at 0640 GMT0240 US Eastern time Earlier from Japan, rocketing inflation and a hesitant Bank of Japan:Japan May 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, stillBoJ minutes note the rising downside risks for Japan's economy, rates must be kept low This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Trump will hold a US National Security Meeting on Friday

Trump will hold a US National Security Meeting on Friday11am US Eastern time1500 GMTI don't know why I am noting this, the Iran-Israel fighting is nver far from the top of the agenda in the White House this week.The latest is Trump will be deciding what to do within two weeks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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New Zealand PM to meet China President Xi to discuss trade and regional tensions

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, with talks expected to focus on strengthening trade ties and addressing geopolitical tensions related to China’s growing influence in the South Pacific.The meeting will cap Luxon's first visit to China since becoming prime minister in November 2023. During the first two days of the trip, spent in Shanghai, he promoted New Zealand as a destination for Chinese tourists and students, and oversaw the signing of NZ$871 million ($520 million) in commercial deals.China remains New Zealand’s largest trading partner, accounting for 20% of its exports (NZ$21.5 billion in the fiscal year to March), reinforcing Wellington’s aim to deepen economic ties despite broader strategic concerns. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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JP Morgan maintains bearish dollar outlook as growth slows and global policy diverges

JP Morgan is sticking to its bearish view on the U.S. dollar, arguing that a combination of moderating U.S. growth, robust global policy support, and waning investor appetite for U.S. assets continues to point toward further dollar weakness.In a note to clients, the bank outlined several persistent drivers behind its negative USD stance. These include signs of slowing U.S. economic momentum, ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus outside the U.S., and low energy prices that support global demand. Moreover, JP Morgan sees rising odds of a structural decline in the dollar, one that may warrant a long-term “dollar discount.”“The direction of travel across these dimensions has remained towards dollar weakening in recent weeks,” analysts wrote, highlighting softening data across a range of indicators, including jobless claims, services PMIs, construction, and auto sales. While the recent payrolls report was more mixed, the bank expects U.S. growth to decelerate more than in other developed and emerging markets this year.Looking ahead to 2025, JP Morgan sees the U.S. and several other economies slowing, while others — including the Australian and New Zealand dollars, Norwegian krone, euro, and yen — are likely to benefit in developed markets. Among emerging markets, the bank expects stronger performance in EMEA currencies.JP Morgan also points to a significant shift in market expectations: the terminal rate priced for the Federal Reserve has fallen, even as the term premium on U.S. bonds has increased — a combination it describes as a “USD-negative cocktail.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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UK's Lammy and US' Rubio met on Iran-Israel fighting

UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs Lammy and US Secretary of State Rubio met:Rubio - US and UK agree Iran should never acquire a nuclear weaponLammy - The situation in the Middle East remains dangerousTheir two bosses earlier this week fumbling the trade deal. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Trump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclear

Fox News on Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman: Trump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclear.Info via the folks at ZeroHedge: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi & 3 EU foreign ministers meet Friday

A U.S. official told CNN that expectations are low for Friday’s meeting in Geneva between Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi and the foreign ministers of three European nations. Despite the cautious outlook, a White House official noted that progress cannot be ruled out, leaving the door open — however narrowly — for diplomatic movement.ADDED - my bad, UK, France and German foreign ministers, not 3 from the EU.---This does not sound too hopeful, but its something to hope for I guess. I noted earlier:Relatively quiet re news from the Middle East is supporting risk FXAdd this 'hope' into the supportive mix for markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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Relatively quiet re news from the Middle East is supporting risk FX

Ranges are not too large, but the relatively quiet news flow out of the Middle East is supporting risk assets at the expense of the US dollar. On Thursday US time we had the US saying it could up up to two weeks before a decision is made on joining with Israel against Iran. Now, be careful of this, its not a guarantee that action is two weeks away, it's a war and such a comment could be intended as misleading. Or, it might be 2 weeks, who knows ... and that's the point. It'll be a nervous weekend ahead regardless, but for now 'risk' is back.As well as risk FX, equities are up a little also: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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