There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.Again, they are for EUR/USD but this time at the 1.1500 and 1.1520 levels. The dollar is a little on the weaker side today and the expiries could play a role in terms of holding up price action just above the figure level in the session ahead. That especially with the key hourly moving averages holding nearby at 1.0504-16 currently.Do be mindful that headline risks remain paramount before we get to the weekend, with eyes staying on the Middle East.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak in a few hours timeTrump will hold a US National Security Meeting on FridayNew Zealand PM to meet China President Xi to discuss trade and regional tensionsJP Morgan maintains bearish dollar outlook as growth slows and global policy divergesUK's Lammy and US' Rubio met on Iran-Israel fightingTrump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclearIranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi & 3 EU foreign ministers meet FridayRelatively quiet re news from the Middle East is supporting risk FXPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1695 (vs. estimate at 7.1801)People's Bank of China leaves Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, as expectedIsraeli media notes that Iran is planning attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in EuropeMSCI says that South Korea has improved short-selling accessBoJ minutes note the rising downside risks for Japan's economy, rates must be kept lowStill to come from the BOJ - May meeting minutes, Governor Ueda speakingJapan May 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, stillUK consumer confidence in June rises to -18 from -20 in MayUS thinks Iran likely to make nuclear bomb if Fordow is attacked, Khamenei assasinatedICYMI - Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0%TD says the Bank of England has left GBP with not a lot to chew onHeads up for New Zealand dollar traders - markets are closed Friday for a holidayRussia’s Deputy PM Alexander Novak wants oil output boosted4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bblForexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 June: The focus is on what next in Iran/Israel conflictTrade ideas thread - Friday, 20 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasRisk assets found support during the session here following Thursday’s headlines from the U.S., where Trump said he would decide whether to strike Iran “within two weeks.” While the phrasing doesn’t rule out an immediate move, markets chose to focus on the delay, and optimism prevailed. The USD slipped against major FX, U.S. equity futures pushed higher, while crude oil and gold edged lower.Looking ahead, Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi is due to meet with the foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany in Geneva on Friday. Notably, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Witkoff, will not attend. Separately, Trump is scheduled to convene a National Security Council meeting on Friday.From Japan, May inflation data showed headline CPI at 3.5%, down slightly from April’s 3.6% but still marking 38 consecutive months above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The BoJ’s preferred core measure, CPI excluding fresh food, rose for a third straight month to 3.7% y/y, the highest since January 2023 and a touch above expectations. The rise continues to be driven by staple foods—rice prices are now up 102% y/y, a significant pressure point for consumers. In contrast, services inflation ticked up to 1.4%, modestly higher than April.Minutes from the BoJ’s April 30–May 1 policy meeting, released today, showed board members broadly supporting further rate hikes over time, though some favored a pause in the near term due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. A few policymakers also noted that Japan’s path to achieving stable 2% inflation had likely been delayed by about a year.From China, the People’s Bank of China left its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Friday:1-year LPR held at 3.00%5-year LPR remained at 3.50%This decision follows last month’s broad monetary easing and suggests a pause to assess impact on growth momentum.---Crude update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at the Annual Trust Association Meeting.Timing for this is at 0640 GMT0240 US Eastern time Earlier from Japan, rocketing inflation and a hesitant Bank of Japan:Japan May 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, stillBoJ minutes note the rising downside risks for Japan's economy, rates must be kept low This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump will hold a US National Security Meeting on Friday11am US Eastern time1500 GMTI don't know why I am noting this, the Iran-Israel fighting is nver far from the top of the agenda in the White House this week.The latest is Trump will be deciding what to do within two weeks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, with talks expected to focus on strengthening trade ties and addressing geopolitical tensions related to China’s growing influence in the South Pacific.The meeting will cap Luxon's first visit to China since becoming prime minister in November 2023. During the first two days of the trip, spent in Shanghai, he promoted New Zealand as a destination for Chinese tourists and students, and oversaw the signing of NZ$871 million ($520 million) in commercial deals.China remains New Zealand’s largest trading partner, accounting for 20% of its exports (NZ$21.5 billion in the fiscal year to March), reinforcing Wellington’s aim to deepen economic ties despite broader strategic concerns. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

JP Morgan is sticking to its bearish view on the U.S. dollar, arguing that a combination of moderating U.S. growth, robust global policy support, and waning investor appetite for U.S. assets continues to point toward further dollar weakness.In a note to clients, the bank outlined several persistent drivers behind its negative USD stance. These include signs of slowing U.S. economic momentum, ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus outside the U.S., and low energy prices that support global demand. Moreover, JP Morgan sees rising odds of a structural decline in the dollar, one that may warrant a long-term “dollar discount.”“The direction of travel across these dimensions has remained towards dollar weakening in recent weeks,” analysts wrote, highlighting softening data across a range of indicators, including jobless claims, services PMIs, construction, and auto sales. While the recent payrolls report was more mixed, the bank expects U.S. growth to decelerate more than in other developed and emerging markets this year.Looking ahead to 2025, JP Morgan sees the U.S. and several other economies slowing, while others — including the Australian and New Zealand dollars, Norwegian krone, euro, and yen — are likely to benefit in developed markets. Among emerging markets, the bank expects stronger performance in EMEA currencies.JP Morgan also points to a significant shift in market expectations: the terminal rate priced for the Federal Reserve has fallen, even as the term premium on U.S. bonds has increased — a combination it describes as a “USD-negative cocktail.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs Lammy and US Secretary of State Rubio met:Rubio - US and UK agree Iran should never acquire a nuclear weaponLammy - The situation in the Middle East remains dangerousTheir two bosses earlier this week fumbling the trade deal. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fox News on Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman: Trump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclear.Info via the folks at ZeroHedge: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A U.S. official told CNN that expectations are low for Friday’s meeting in Geneva between Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi and the foreign ministers of three European nations. Despite the cautious outlook, a White House official noted that progress cannot be ruled out, leaving the door open — however narrowly — for diplomatic movement.ADDED - my bad, UK, France and German foreign ministers, not 3 from the EU.---This does not sound too hopeful, but its something to hope for I guess. I noted earlier:Relatively quiet re news from the Middle East is supporting risk FXAdd this 'hope' into the supportive mix for markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Ranges are not too large, but the relatively quiet news flow out of the Middle East is supporting risk assets at the expense of the US dollar. On Thursday US time we had the US saying it could up up to two weeks before a decision is made on joining with Israel against Iran. Now, be careful of this, its not a guarantee that action is two weeks away, it's a war and such a comment could be intended as misleading. Or, it might be 2 weeks, who knows ... and that's the point. It'll be a nervous weekend ahead regardless, but for now 'risk' is back.As well as risk FX, equities are up a little also: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.Previous close was 7.1870 PBOC injected 161.2bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40% 202.5bn yuan mature today net drain is 41.3bn yuan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People's Bank of China rate setting:5-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.50% vs 3.50% expected and 3.50% last month also1-year at 3% vs. 3% expected and 3% last month tooAs noted earlier, aast month the Bank lowered LPRs for the first time since October, 1-year to 3.0%, from 3.1% and the 5-year to 3.5% from 3.6%, while it cut its 7 day reverse repo benchmark rate by 10bp to 1.4% earlier that month. LPRs are no longer as important as they once were. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) shifted its primary monetary policy tool to the seven-day reverse repurchase agreement (reverse repo) rate. This transition began in mid-2024. This move aligns China's monetary policy framework more closely with global standards, such as those of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which typically rely on a single short-term policy rate to guide market expectations and liquidity. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The violence is set to continue, and expand if the reports are correct. Israeli media (Channel 12) says the security services are aware of threats of attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Europe. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

MSCI said Friday that South Korea’s short-selling accessibility has improved, with no major issues remaining — a positive sign ahead of next week’s market classification review.South Korea is currently classified as an emerging market by MSCI, despite meeting many developed-market criteria. Investors are hoping the country will be added to MSCI’s watch list for a future upgrade.In March, South Korea fully lifted its five-year ban on short selling, a key move to address concerns long raised by foreign investors and MSCI.In its annual review, MSCI upgraded South Korea’s short-selling rating from “–” (improvements needed) to “+” (no major issues, improvements possible). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan April 30 - May 1 meeting minutes, full textHeadlines via Reuters:Many members said must carefully scrutinise each nation’s trade policy and its development given heightening downside risks to economy, pricesA few members said BOJ must maintain current very low real interest rates to underpin economyOne member said BOJ had no choice but to wait-and-see until US trade developments stabilisedOne member said must scrutinise whether recent tariff developments could prod Japan firms to embark on excessive cost-cuts, curb wage and investmentMembers agreed it was appropriate for BoJ to continue raising interest rates in accordance with improvements in economy, prices if BOJ’s forecasts materialiseA few members said it was appropriate to continue raising interest rates as BOJ’s projections point to achievement of its 2% inflation targetOne member said likelihood of Japan’s underlying prices falling back again is smallOne member said BOJ may pause rate hike temporarily, but must stand ready to hike rates again depending on U.S. policy shiftsSome members said if yen rises as a trend, that could have negative impact on Japan’s economyMembers agreed boost to inflation from past rises in import costs, recent rises in rice and other food prices likely to dissipateSome members said timing of underlying inflation converging to levels consistent with BOJ’s price target likely has been pushed back by around 1 yearA few members said inflation may overshoot forecast depending on developments in trade negotiations among countries I guess you can read whatever you like into that lot. The risks to Japan's economy from the US and geoplotiical dvelopemtns would seem to argue that the Bank of Japan is on hold for a while yet. IMO, of course. ---Still to come from the BOJ - Governor Ueda speakingEarlier:Japan May 2025 CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan target rate, stillBank of Japan Governor Ueda with Japan PM Ishiba This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canada will introduce a series of countermeasures to help deal with Trump tariffs.Will adjust its existing counter tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21 (PM Carney)level of Canadian counterterrorist will depend on progress of talks with US on new economic deal.Only Canadian producers and producers from trading partners that provide Canada with tariff free reciprocal access can compete for federal government procurement of steel and aluminum.Canada will adopt additional tariff measures to address risks associated with persistent global overcapacity and unfair trade in steel and aluminum sectors This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The White House press briefing is taking place, and the talking points are on immigration, on the Big, Beautiful Bill. The questions are beginning and Press Sec says: Pres. Trump will make decision on whether to attack Iran within two weeksThere is a significant chance of negotiations with Iran in the near future President still believes diplomacy is an option with IranThere is a great opportunity for negotiations that may or may not be held with Iran soonUS envoy has been in touch with Iran and consequences has continued.The Pres. objective is Iran does not get a nuclear weapon no enrichment of uranium; . If there is a chance for diplomacy, present Trump is going to grab it.There is no sign that China is getting involved militarily on Iran This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NBC is reporting that the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime is far from the truth. Meanwhile, Britain, France and Germany are to hold talks with Iran's foreign ministry on Friday in an effort to avoid a US intervention in the conflict. The calculus of the conflict is intense. My guess is the first plan is failing. That is, Iran would fold after the initial strikes from Isreel took out people, places and things and the US threatened on the outside. Instead, some of Iran's bombs have penetrated the Iron Dome and caused casualties. The risk is Iran is taking the body blows and NOT ready to negotiate but fight back.That leads to second plan which is US involvement and what does that look like?The obvious thought would be to send in the US bunker buster and then hope there is a negotiation, truce, cooling off. If that does not work, what is plan three? I don't know, but a long drawn-out war is not the hope.PS There are plans on the other side too, and oil is always in play too.Now, the US may not choose to do plan 2 - at least now - but instead be willing to continue negotiations and meanwhile let the first plan run some more with Isreal and Iran continuing to bomb each other with the thought Israel can out-punch and out-strategize Iran eventually. It will be ugly and lead to casualties, destruction, tension, etc. but it keeps the US on the outside, looking in. The political risk to Trump is he all along said he can negotiate peace, that he is not a war monger. However, wars continue to rage and that is forcing his hand.For me... praying for peace.... This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Investor Update – Iran-Israel Conflict Intensifies Amid Diplomatic EffortsTensions between Iran and Israel escalated further overnight with a significant Israeli airstrike targeting the Arak nuclear reactor, previously linked to plutonium production, in Iran. According to reports, multiple targets critical to the reactor’s functionality were successfully neutralized, indicating Israel’s determined effort to degrade Iran’s nuclear capabilities.Concurrently, diplomatic channels remain open, with intensive negotiations ongoing between U.S. Secretary of State Wiedkopf and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Sources familiar with the talks - according to Israeli Media N12.co.il - emphasize Iran’s insistence that any meaningful nuclear negotiations cannot proceed "under fire." Tehran has signaled potential flexibility on its nuclear stance if Israeli attacks are halted, a noteworthy shift given Iran’s historical refusal to compromise on uranium enrichment.Further diplomatic engagements are expected shortly, with Araghchi meeting senior officials from France, Britain, Germany, and the European Union tomorrow. Reports also hint at a potential direct dialogue between Iran and former U.S. President Trump, marking a possible breakthrough toward diplomatic resolution.Investor implications:Escalation Risk: Israel’s intensified military actions underline ongoing geopolitical risk, potentially increasing volatility across oil and commodity markets.Diplomatic Developments: Positive diplomatic outcomes could swiftly ease regional tensions, influencing market sentiment positively, while diplomatic stalemate or failure could lead to prolonged uncertainty.Energy Markets: Continued conflict could drive oil prices higher due to perceived risks of supply disruption.Investors are advised to remain vigilant, as rapid developments on both the diplomatic and military fronts can quickly shift market dynamics.ForexLive.com will be evolving to become investingLive.com by the end of this summer. Stay tuned and get used to our new name. This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.