Trump says he will lower some tariffs on coffee. I'm not sure what venue Trump is speaking from. This wasn;t from a social media post.Here we go, it was an interview with Fox. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian data Australia Home Loans Value Q3 +9.6% q/q, fastest rise since Q1 2021expected +2.6%, prior +2.0% Owner-Occupier Loan Value +4.7% q/qprior +2.4%Investor Loan Value +17.6% q/qprior +1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value.---Earlier:Goldman delays China ‘dual cut’ to 2026, expects gradual yuan appreciation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs has postponed its forecast for China’s next round of monetary easing, citing a more restrained tone from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and a stronger focus on currency stability and structural reforms.The bank now expects a 10bp policy rate cut and 50bp reserve ratio cut in Q1 2026, instead of late 2025, with a further 10bp rate cut moved to Q3 2026. Goldman said recent policy discussions around RMB internationalisation underscore Beijing’s commitment to FX management, suggesting a preference for gradual yuan appreciation over large-scale stimulus.In its Q3 monetary policy report released on 11 November, the PBOC kept its “moderately loose” stance but emphasised cross-cyclical adjustments, which Goldman views as signalling a less dovish approach. The report also downplayed loan growth, pointing to a shift toward direct financing and the local government debt swap program as structural priorities.Goldman added that CNY appreciation against the USD is expected to remain “gradual and choppy,” with the US dollar’s trajectory remaining the dominant driver. A faster rise in the yuan, the bank said, would require a clearer catalyst, such as exporter repatriation flows near year-end — a pattern observed in September.The PBOC’s reference to maintaining exchange rate “flexibility” rather than “resilience” suggests reduced depreciation pressure, with Goldman concluding that FX stability is unlikely to constrain measured policy easing next year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones is speaking at the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) Conference, BroadbeachIt's a 'Fireside Chat' format.The RBA has not published a text, and only the odd comment is crossing the wires, not a lot to go on:says markets underpricing geopolitical risks; global valuations remain complacent central bank gold reserves show early signs of fragmentation emerging This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Institutional investors turn more cautious as State Street risk gauge slips to neutralA closely watched measure of global risk appetite from State Street eased to a neutral reading in October, as institutional investors shifted toward defensive sectors despite global equities hitting fresh highs.State Street Markets said its Risk Appetite Index, based on real trading flows among large institutions, slipped from its most optimistic level of the year to a neutral stance. The move does not indicate outright risk aversion, the firm said, noting that equity allocations actually climbed to their highest in 18 years:the overall backdrop remains constructiveinvestors are becoming slightly more cautious in how they position within portfolioshift in relative trades and intra-portfolio allocations has driven index back to neutralThe moderation in sentiment comes as some investors question whether lofty valuations in AI-linked Big Tech stocks can be sustained.---The moderation in State Street’s risk gauge hints at a rotation from growth to defensive sectors amid valuation concerns in AI-heavy Big Tech, suggesting near-term consolidation in global equity markets. (Don't tell anyone but there is a case to be made for investor turning neutral, ie trimming holdings, leaves room for stocks to rise further as some get forces to chase.). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reuters November Tankan - Japanese factory mood hits 4-year high on weak yen, auto reboundJapan’s manufacturers grew the most upbeat in nearly four years this month, lifted by a softer yen and solid global demand for cars and electronics, according to the November Reuters Tankan survey.The manufacturers’ sentiment index jumped to +17 in November, up sharply from +8 in October and marking its strongest reading since early 2022. Electronics firms led the surge — their sub-index soared to +25 from +5, reflecting improved chip-related orders and export competitiveness from the weaker currency. The auto and transport machinery sector also saw a large rebound, rising to +27 from +9, helped by stable orders and a cheaper yen. Still, some respondents warned that supply disruptions and sluggish sales could cap momentum in coming months. The overall manufacturing index is expected to ease to +15 by February, with firms citing weaker output at major automakers such as Honda and Nissan, both recently cutting production targets.Business leaders also voiced concern over U.S. President Trump’s new tariff measures and their potential to cloud export outlooks amid rising trade frictions with China.By contrast, Japan’s non-manufacturing sentiment held steady at +27, underpinned by robust tourism and service-sector demand. The outlook for February remains unchanged, pointing to continued strength in hospitality and domestic consumption. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UBS: Fed easing, profits and AI spending to keep U.S. stocks climbingUBS says U.S. equities still have further to run, underpinned by the Federal Reserve’s policy easing, strong corporate earnings, and surging investment in artificial intelligence. The bank sees the S&P 500 reaching 7,300 by June 2026, expecting the combination of looser monetary policy and robust profit momentum to sustain the rally.Strategists at UBS argue that additional Fed rate cuts will provide a supportive backdrop as evidence mounts of a cooling labour market. While policymakers remain split over timing, the bank expects two more cuts by early 2026, saying resumed economic data after the government reopening should reinforce that inflation is easing and hiring demand weakening.Corporate earnings strength, they add, remains a powerful anchor. Around 80 % of S&P 500 firms have reported solid third-quarter results, with the breadth and magnitude of earnings beats exceeding historical averages. Consumer spending has stayed resilient, and UBS expects activity delayed by the shutdown to rebound quickly, helping fourth-quarter growth.UBS also highlights the structural lift from AI-related investment, noting that tech companies are reporting faster cloud growth and surging demand for compute power. NVIDIA’s call for more chip supply from TSMC underscores the sector’s momentum. The bank maintains that rising capital expenditure on AI will continue to drive market performance well into next year. ---UBS’s bullish outlook could bolster appetite for tech and cyclical stocks. Expectations of further Fed easing and strong AI-linked capex suggest continued support for growth assets into 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Global reserve managers are quietly diversifying away from the U.S. dollar—but not toward the traditional major currencies that once shared the stage. According to Standard Chartered, recent IMF data show that central banks and sovereign funds have been shifting allocations into a broader mix of smaller G-10 and emerging-market currencies rather than the euro, sterling or yen.Historically, reserve diversification away from the dollar would have meant greater holdings of other major currencies. But StanChart notes that this pattern has broken down: recent flows show a steady accumulation of “other currencies,” a catch-all IMF category that includes the Canadian and Australian dollars, the Swiss franc, and some liquid emerging-market units.This trend points to a structural change in the way official investors manage currency risk. While many acknowledge the dollar’s long-term dominance may be fading slightly, there is still no clear successor.In practical terms, the global reserve landscape is fragmenting: rather than a clean rotation from the dollar to another major currency bloc, diversification now reflects a search for incremental yield, stability and geopolitical neutrality. That helps explain why smaller currencies, once niche in official portfolios, are becoming more common—even if no single one looks poised to rival the greenback. ---The gradual diversification of global reserves implies less structural demand for U.S. assets at the margin, though the absence of a clear alternative limits near-term pressure on the dollar. Flows into smaller G-10 and EM currencies may add background support for the AUD, CAD and select EM FX. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan's bond yields surge to crisis-era highs: what it means and why it mattersJapan's 10-year government bond yield has hit levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and its 40-year yield is near its all-time high, this is being read as signalling the end of a multi-decade financial era.his isn't just a technical market move; it's a fundamental shift with profound implications for Japan and the entire global financial system. Here is a breakdown of what this means, why it's happening, and the historical context.What does a rising bond yield mean?First, it's important to understand what a bond yield is.Bond Yield vs. Price: A bond's price and its yield move in opposite directions. Think of it like a seesaw.When investors are confident and buying bonds, the price goes up, and the yield (the return) goes down.When investors are selling bonds (or demand a higher interest rate to buy them), the price goes down, and the yield goes up.What the rise signifies: A yield of 1.69% on a 10-year bond means investors are now demanding a 1.69% annual return to lend the Japanese government money for 10 years. For most of the last decade, that number was at or even below zero.This surge means investors are rapidly selling off Japanese government bonds (JGBs), signaling they expect higher inflation and higher interest rates in the future. The recent past: a 20-year experiment in zeroTo understand why a 1.69% yield is so dramatic, you have to look at Japan's recent history.For most of the last two decades, Japan was the exception to every rule. While other countries worried about inflation, Japan was stuck in deflation (persistently falling prices).To fight this, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did the following:Negative Interest Rates: It charged commercial banks to hold money, pushing the official interest rate to -0.1%.Yield Curve Control (YCC): This was the big one. The BoJ actively bought a limitless number of 10-year JGBs to artificially pin the yield at 0%.This made borrowing in Japan almost free. It also created the "Yen Carry Trade," where global investors would borrow yen for 0%, sell it, and use the money to buy higher-yielding bonds in places like the US or Australia. Japanese investors, unable to earn any return at home, became the largest foreign holders of US government debt. Why is this happening now? The two-part answerThe decades-long experiment is over. Two major forces are driving yields up. 1. The Bank of Japan is finally 'normalising' policyFor the first time in a generation, Japan has persistent inflation. It has remained above the BoJ's 2% target for several years, and wages are finally starting to rise.Because its mission to beat deflation is over, the BoJ has put its policy in reverse:It has ended negative interest rates, raising them for the first time in 17 years.It is tapering (slowing down) its bond purchases.With the BoJ no longer buying unlimited bonds, the artificial cap on yields is gone. Markets are now betting that the BoJ will have to raise interest rates even further to control inflation, causing investors to sell bonds now in anticipation.2. The government plans to spend moreJapan has a new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, who is pushing for a new economic stimulus package financed by more government spending.More spending = more debt.To raise money, the government must issue (sell) more bonds.A flood of new bond supply overwhelms demand, which pushes prices down and sends yields up.You have a perfect storm: the central bank is buying fewer bonds just as the government is planning to sell more of them. Implications: the global ripple effectThis shift has massive consequences, both inside and outside Japan.For Japan:Huge government debt costs: Japan has the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the developed world (over 200%). For years, this didn't matter because its interest rate was 0%. Now, as it refinances that debt, the interest payments will skyrocket, straining the national budget.Higher mortgage rates: Japanese homeowners and businesses, long used to ultra-cheap loans, will face significantly higher borrowing costs.A stronger yen: As Japanese yields rise, Japanese investors no longer need to send their money overseas to get a return. They can now sell their US and Australian bonds and bring that money home. This "repatriation" of capital increases demand for the yen, making it stronger.For the world:The "Yen Carry Trade" unwinds: Investors who borrowed yen for free are now scrambling to pay back those loans as Japanese interest rates rise. This also causes the yen to strengthen and can lead to global market volatility.Global yields are pulled higher: This is the most critical point. When Japanese investors (the world's biggest foreign creditor) start selling their massive holdings of US, European, and Australian bonds to buy JGBs at home, it floods the global market.This selling pushes global bond prices down and global yields up. The rise in Japan's bond yields is a key reason borrowing costs could rise for everyone, everywhere.In short, the era of free money from Japan, which has supported global asset prices for 20 years, is over. The bond market is showing us that the adjustment to this new reality is underway and likely to be volatile. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China is designing a new export-licensing system that would allow it to fast-track shipments of rare-earth magnets and other sensitive materials to civilian buyers while blocking access to companies linked to the U.S. military. The Wall Street Journal (gated) carried the latest on this. In brief:According to people familiar with the plan, Beijing’s “validated end-user” (VEU) scheme would mirror U.S. export-control procedures and give pre-approved firms general authorisation to import controlled materials without having to apply for a licence each time. The aim is to honour President Xi Jinping’s recent pledge to President Trump to ease the flow of restricted goods following their late-October trade truce — while maintaining tight control over where such materials ultimately end up.Rare-earth magnets are essential for both civilian and defence applications, powering electric-vehicle motors, passenger jets, fighter aircraft and drones. Under the proposed system, Chinese authorities would streamline exports to firms that can demonstrate purely civilian end-use but exclude any company with military or dual-use ties.Officials have yet to detail which companies would qualify for general licences or how long approvals would last, leaving uncertainty for dual-use industries such as aerospace and automotive manufacturing. The Ministry of Commerce has not commented.The VEU concept draws directly from the American model, under which Chinese firms have been able since 2007 to import certain U.S. goods under general authorisation in exchange for allowing on-site compliance inspections. Beijing’s version, however, would flip the arrangement, enabling China to control sensitive outbound flows and leverage its near-monopoly over rare-earth processing to maintain strategic advantage.Since April, China has used curbs on high-powered rare-earth magnet exports as a bargaining chip in trade talks. Despite promises to issue more general licences after the Trump-Xi truce, Beijing appears intent on keeping some restrictions intact. Uncertainty over eligibility and enforcement means many multinational firms may still look for non-Chinese suppliers of critical materials.---The plan underscores China’s strategic leverage in rare-earths and could squeeze supply chains for defence and dual-use industries in the U.S., Japan and Europe. Automotive and aerospace firms with military contracts may face higher compliance costs or seek non-Chinese sources. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ADP weekly US employment -11,250Hassett: Trajectory for inflation is really goodGoldman Sachs is getting more cautious on October jobs numbersUS October NFIB small business optimism index 98.2 vs 98.3 expectedMarkets:Gold up $13 to $4129WTI crude oil up 81-cents to $60.94S&P 500 up 0.2%CHF leads, GBP lagsUS bond market closed for holidayIt was a light day in markets on account of the holidays in the US and Canada. That closed some markets but the main ones were open and initially signalled declines led by chipmakers after SoftBank disclosed that it cleared out of its NVDA position in October. Those stocks remained under pressure but the rest of the market turned around midday, led by energy. As a result, the S&P 500 finished narrowly higher and the Nasdaq narrowly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a record.In FX, the pound shook off the jobs numbers and it was the US dollar under some early pressure after the new weekly ADP employment report showed a troubling drop in employment for late October. That added to angst after some recent reports, including yesterday's Challenger data. It led to some broad USD selling, though some of that was trimmed late.Oil was a winner as the market continues to see signs of Russian oil facing roadblacks and building tensions between the US and Venezuela. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Rotation. Rotation. Rotation.That is how the day is ending as the dust settled.The money flowed into the bricks and mortar stocks in the Dow 30. The losers were the technology stocks of the Nasdaq. The Dow 30 stocks were led by:Merck & Co (MRK) +4.84%Amgen (AMGN) +4.57%Nike (NKE) +3.87%Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) +2.88%McDonald’s (MCD) +2.61%Walt Disney (DIS) +2.34%Honeywell (HON) +2.21%Verizon (VZ) +2.18%Apple (AAPL) +2.16%Procter & Gamble (PG) +2.09%Chip stocks moved lower after Softbank announced that they divested of all their shares of Nvidia in favor of OpenAI. Looking at the chip stocks: Nvidia shares fell -2.96%AMD fell -2.65%.Intel fell -1.48%Broadcom fell -1.79%Micron fell -4.81%Other losers today included:Nebius NV (NBIS) −7.07%Lam Research (LRCX) −4.29%Trump Media & Technology (DJT) −4.02%Papa John’s (PZZA) −3.91%Tapestry (TPR) −3.81%Super Micro Computer (SMCI) −3.40%Arm (ARM) −3.29%First Solar (FSLR) −3.20%Cadence Design (CDNS) −3.16%MicroStrategy (MSTR) −3.14%Grayscale Bitcoin (GBTC) −3.09%Alibaba ADR (BABA) −3.07% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Reuters Tankan for Japan is not listed in the screenshot, but its due at 2300 GMT / 1800 US Eastern time. Japan's economy is throwing mixed signals, but generally seems improving. Eyes on this from Reuters today. The Reuters Tankan Index provides a monthly snapshot assessing Japanese business sentiment ahead of the Bank of Japan's quarterly report also with the Tankan name. The term "Tankan" is short for "Tanshin Kansoku," which roughly translates to "Short-term Economic Observation".This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin has been something of a leading indicator for risk trades lately. It's at the lows of the day, down 2.7% on a day when the Nasdaq is down just 0.2%. Now there is a tighter correlation with chipmakers, which are struggling today so it's not a screaming red flag but it's certainly a warning sign. It's also another day of lackluster performance for bitcoin, which rose as high as $107,454 today before reversing sharply. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Colder weather forecasts have boosted US natural gas prices to some of the best levels since the 2023 spike but there could be more to come.Natty is up 5% today but it's one of the few things directly touching the AI investment supercycle that hasn't spiked. It certainly could and demand for power isn't the only reason.1) Data centersFirst, let's break down the power demand, which is around 500 large data centers by 2030, which is the equivalent of powering nearly 20 million US homes or 50-60 GW, mostly sourced from natural gas. That could add about 3.5-4% of US natural gas demand and likely growing by 2035.2) The LNG buildout continuesThere are currently seven major LNG construction projects in North America that will add 18 Bcf/d of total export capacity and total capacity to 28.7 Bcf/d by 2029. There are upside risks to that as well with LNG Canada Phase 2 and Lake Charles possibly adding around 4 Bcf/d if approved.3) Low oil pricesOil and gas are like Siamese Twins, they need each other to survive. Dry gas is rare so most wells are some combination of oil and natural gas. When oil prices are low, the wells that are 80/20 oil aren't drilled. Oil company budgets for 2026 are looking lean so there is a marginal drag on supply. In the short run, natural gas prices are always about winter weather but there is a huge call on North American natural gas coming. A rise back to $7 gas would be an absolute windfall for natty producers and contract drillers, along with a big inflation headache for everyone else. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Today's stock market heatmap paints a vivid picture of diverging sectors, with tech cooling off while energy sees rising momentum. Utilized by market participants for sector analysis, the heatmap highlights the day's trends, sentiments, and major movers across the US stock market.? Technology Sector: Cooling OffThe technology sector experienced a notable retreat with leading semiconductor stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) dropping by 2.12%. Similarly, other major players like Oracle (ORCL) and Intel (INTC) are showing instabilities, down by 1.59% and 1.17% respectively. This decline suggests a potential cooling down of investor optimism in tech, possibly impacted by recent market dynamics and broader economic concerns.? Energy Sector: Gaining MomentumIn contrast, the energy sector is witnessing positive traction. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both report gains of 0.62% and 0.77%, respectively. This sector's ascent might reflect rising oil prices or increased demand predictions, marking it as a potential area of growth for savvy investors.? Market Mood and TrendsThe broader market sentiment remains mixed, fueled by sector-specific volatility and overarching economic indicators. Notably, the consumer cyclical sector sees Amazon (AMZN) with a minor dip of 0.17%, while healthcare firms like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) enjoy stable gains (0.66%), pointing toward investor rotation into more defensive stocks.? Spotlight: Key MoversResilience in Healthcare: Noteworthy players like Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) maintain upward momentum with a 0.47% increase.Consumer Defensive Stability: Walmart (WMT) hovers near stability despite minor losses (-0.07%), underscoring the sector's defensive appeal.Crypto Slump: Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) tumbled 2.23%, highlighting the sector's ongoing volatility.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors are advised to closely monitor developments in the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, for any indicators of a sustained downturn or recovery. The energy sector might present lucrative opportunities, driven by its current upward trajectory. Additionally, maintaining a diversified portfolio, especially in more stable sectors like consumer defensive and healthcare, may hedge against today's inherent market uncertainties.As always, staying informed through platforms like InvestingLive.com is crucial for keeping pace with market changes and capitalizing on emerging opportunities. Diversification remains key to navigating today's complex landscape. ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Knowing the technical levels in play is key to traders success.In the video above, I outline the key technical levels in play for the USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD given the price action and applying key technical tools that lots of traders follow.Those tools tell a story - or bias (who is in control - buyers or sellers) - as well as defining targets on where you are going, and the risk on where you are wrong (where the bias shifts). If you are interested in learning where those levels and understanding why, click on the above video. I will tell the story. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF is the weakest of the major currency pairs today, reflecting a stronger Swiss franc. The move follows reports that the U.S. and Switzerland may soon announce a trade deal that would cut tariffs from 39% to 15%, spurring fresh selling in the pair. Recall that President Trump unexpectedly raised tariffs on Swiss imports to 39% on August 1, well above those applied to the EU. The steep increase was part of the administration’s “reciprocal tariff” strategy targeting countries with large trade surpluses with the U.S.—and Switzerland fits that bill, given its strong exports of precision equipment, watches, and gold.The potential rollback comes as the Supreme Court prepares to rule on key tariff-related challenges, which could prompt the administration to reconsider its broader trade approach. The timing is notable, as the White House also signaled plans to reduce tariffs on Indian imports (currently near 50%). The timing is curious. In any case, the tariff development appears to be giving the CHF an extra boost.From a technical perspective, momentum is aligning with the fundamentals. The pair fell away from its 200-hour moving average in the Asian session near 0.8061 and has since broken below a key swing area between 0.8013 and 0.8019, the 38.2% retracement of the rise from the September low at 0.80107, and the psychological 0.8000 level. On the 4-hour chart, the price now sits below both the 100- and 200-bar MAs at 0.8007 and 0.7995 (blue and green lines on the chart below), reinforcing bearish control. Staying below these levels keeps the focus on the next downside target near the 50% retracement at 0.79758. If buyers manage to halt the decline, a recovery back above 0.8019 would be needed to restore confidence and weaken the sellers’ grip. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Shares of Nvidia are down 1.9% in the pre-market and helping to drag broader S&P 500 futures down by 0.2%.The trigger -- ostensibly -- is that SoftBank disclosed that it sold its entire stake in Nvidia worth $5.83 billion in October. First of all, let's do the math on that: It's 0.1% of the company. It's a drop in the bucket.Second of all, SoftBank famously held 4.9% of Nvidia from 2017-2019. They paid about $4 billion for the 4.9% stake and that would be worth $237 billion today. Of course, they sold it in January 2019 in a trade that will haunt Masayoshi Son forever.All that said, there are plenty of reasons to sell NVDA. A tech washout at some point in 2026 is inevitable as either spending slows, competitive pressures emerge or there is a macro shock due to the midterms or whatever else Trump does. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.