The Wall Street Journal (gated) report on AESC is pausing construction of its $1.6 billion South Carolina EV battery plant due to economic uncertainty.In brief:Chinese-owned company is halting constructionin part because of the Trump administration’s tariffs and a potential loss of federal subsidies for clean energycompany pausing construction work because of “economic uncertainty arising from current federal policy and tax issues.” “Our intent is to finish construction of the facility once stability and predictability have returned to the market”The report was out on Wednesday US time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian employment slipped slightly in May, with total jobs down 2,500, missing expectations for a 22,500 rise. However, the decline followed a strong April, and key indicators point to ongoing labour market strength.Unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, where it's been for over a year.Full-time jobs rose by 38,700, while total hours worked rebounded 1.3%.Participation rate edged lower to 67.0%.Underemployment and job ads remain stable, suggesting steady demand for labour.Reuters convey remarks from Oxford Economics saying the dip reflects a normalisation after April’s surge, not a sudden downturn. Markets saw little impact, with rate cut expectations for July unchanged.The RBA has already delivered two cuts this year, bringing the cash rate to 3.85%, as inflation eases and growth stays weak. Investors continue to price in around 70bps of further easing by year-end, with the jobless rate expected to peak only slightly higher at 4.3%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, JPY, CHF ... all are adding to their losses against the US dollar. The recent news:The US is considering an attack on Iran this coming weekendIsrael issues evacuation warning near Iran’s Arak nuclear complexES and NQ are heavy also. Bent is a little confounding, dribbling a touch lower in a tiny move though: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday. NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed.The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA, the trade group that represents the bond market.) is recommending the US Bond market closed that day. So it is.FX desks will be closed, perhaps the odd skeleton crew.--As for futures markets, for Equity Products at the CME (times below are US central time, add an hour to get US Eastern time):Wednesday, June 18th Regular HoursThursday, June 19th12:00pm Halt5:00pm Re-OpenFriday, June 20th Regular HoursFor other products at the CME I'll refer you to this: Juneteenth holiday hours are outlined in yellow. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

While the meeting was underway there were a flurry of news items crossing:Fox reporter says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekendNYT: Iran Foreign Ministry official said Iran would accept Trump's offer to meetWSJ: Trump approved attack plans, holding off to see if Iran abandons nuclear plansWe await any statements or actions. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Wall Street Journal report:Trump told senior aides he approved attack plans for Iran, but is holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear programThe Journal cited three people familiar with the deliberations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New York Times is reporting that an official from Iran's Foreign Ministry, who asked not to be named, said that Iran would accept President Trump’s offer to meet soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fox Business News' Gasparino says US strike in Iran coming possibly by the weekend, citing 'People with ties to the White House'.Meanwhile, The latest meeting in the White House Situation Room has begun. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Putin says Russia will conduct military drills with China this yearMore:We are open to talks with Europe, on the wholeI doubt that Germany could be an intermediary in talks with UkraineWe consider Germany and other European states not as neutral states, but those who support Ukraine and particiapte in military actionsI am in contact with Israel and Trump on Iran conflict This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The q/q expected for New Zealand GDP is pointing towards an economy climbing its way out of the mid-2024 slump. The Y/y is expected to still be negative but q/q should be encouraging. The Australian jobs report is expected to show solid (jobs +25K in May is the central estimate), but not spectacular (+89K was the April result!). An improved showing from the private sector would be welcome, we await the details. As noted in the screenshot, it's a US holiday today, Thursday, June 19, 2025. Bonds, equities, futures will be closed - I'll come back with the details - as will FX (it never truly closes, Canada is open, for example). This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve rate decision: No change to interest rates, as expectedFOMC dot plot and economic projections for June 2025Powell opening statement: Current policy stance leaves us well positionedPowell Q&A: We've had goods inflation moving up a bit, we expect to see more of thatUS May housing starts 1.256m vs 1.357m expectedUS initial jobless claims 245K vs 245K estimateThe comparison of the June 2025 FOMC statement to the May 2025 statementTrump: Iran wants to come to the White House, I may do thatBOC Macklem: Hope is new trade deal will lead to tariffs being removedTrump: Powell has done a poor job and probably will not cut rates todayMore Trump: Tell Israel PM Netanyahu to keep goingIsrael is reportedly attacking Iran's Supreme Leader's underground headquartersMarkets:Gold down $22 to $3366US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.39%WTI crude oil flat at $74.87AUD leads, CHF lagsS&P 500 down 1 pointThe market continues to play the guessing game on the Middle East and some less-hawkish comments from Trump weighed on oil but broader market moves were locked up in anticipation of the FOMC. The decision, statement and dots didn't move the market much. The dots barely remained at two cuts this year as growth expectations moved down but inflation moved up.The start of the Fed press conference was also ignored but US dollar buying picked up as Powell highlighted incoming goods inflation and said they expect a meaningful amount of inflation in the next few months. That saw USD/JPY rise to 145.15 from 144.60 before the Fed. Similarly, the euro and pound ticked down around 40 pips.The bond and stock market moves were small and the overall message from Powell was that they were waiting for more clarity, which was what everyone was expecting. The swing is going to come on the data, so we will wait for more numbers but --- notably -- Powell was also confident on the economy, even as some metrics slip.The market is going to quickly shift back to the trade war and the Middle East war as market drivers now, which is basically a guessing game on what Trump will do next. He said he hasn't made a decision on Iran. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices closed the day with mixed results following the FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged, as widely expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped modestly, while the S&P 500 ended virtually unchanged. The NASDAQ Composite posted a slight gain, and the Russell 2000 outperformed with a stronger rise.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed continued confidence in the strength of the US economy, noting that the labor market remains broadly healthy, despite some concerns for those struggling to re-enter the workforce. The Fed revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast lower, raised its inflation projection, and nudged its unemployment estimate slightly higher.Tariffs were a key theme, with Powell and Fed officials warning that inflation could rise further in the coming months due to tariff-related pressures. That concern has made the Fed more cautious in its forward guidance. While the median forecast still reflects two rate cuts before year-end, seven policymakers now project no change in policy, up from four in March—underscoring growing divisions within the committee.Closing Levels:Dow Jones: -44.14 points (-0.10%) at 42,171.66S&P 500: -1.85 points (-0.03%) at 5,980.87NASDAQ: +25.18 points (+0.13%) at 19,546.27Russell 2000: +11.00 points (+0.52%) at 1,112.96Here are some of the large-caps winners:SoFi Technologies (SOFI): +6.51%Robinhood Markets (HOOD): +4.54%ARK Innovation (ARKK): +4.47%Intel (INTC): +3.32%Super Micro Computer (SMCI): +3.15%Wells Fargo & Co (WFC): +3.10%Rivian Automotive (RIVN): +2.84%GameStop Corp (GME): +2.02%ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG): +1.99%Morgan Stanley (MS): +1.88%Bank of America (BAC): +1.84%Tesla (TSLA): +1.84%Live Nation Entertainment (LYV): +1.82%Goldman Sachs (GS): +1.75%JPMorgan (JPM): +1.66%Roblox (RBLX): +1.52%Merck & Co (MRK): +1.30%Palantir (PLTR): +1.27%Citigroup (C): +1.27%Snowflake (SNOW): +1.24%Micron (MU): +1.23%PNC Financial (PNC): +1.21%American Express (AXP): +1.20%Deutsche Bank AG (DB): +1.15%Charles Schwab (SCHW): +1.06%Western Digital (WDC): +1.02%Emerson (EMR): +1.00%NVIDIA (NVDA): +0.94%Walmart (WMT): +0.92%Arm (ARM): +0.90%Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): +0.88%United Airlines Holdings (UAL): +0.86%Cisco (CSCO): +0.80%Broadcom (AVGO): +0.78%Snap (SNAP): +0.73%Whirlpool (WHR): +0.67%Caterpillar (CAT): +0.59%Paramount Global B (PARA): +0.58%DoorDash (DASH): +0.56%Marriott International (MAR): +0.55%Apple (AAPL): +0.48%Here are some of the losers today:Mastercard (MA): -5.38%Visa A (V): -4.89%PayPal (PYPL): -2.97%Box Inc (BOX): -2.25%Lockheed Martin (LMT): -2.24%Fortinet (FTNT): -2.00%Northrop Grumman (NOC): -1.90%RTX Corp (RTX): -1.74%MicroStrategy (MSTR): -1.64%Uber Tech (UBER): -1.56%Alphabet A (GOOGL): -1.50%CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): -1.43%Occidental (OXY): -1.35%Alibaba ADR (BABA): -1.34%Intuit (INTU): -1.34%Boeing (BA): -1.26%Adobe (ADBE): -1.21%Palo Alto Networks (PANW): -1.15%Salesforce Inc (CRM): -1.08%Amazon.com (AMZN): -1.06%General Dynamics (GD): -1.03%Grayscale Bitcoin (GBTC): -0.90%Airbnb (ABNB): -0.90%ETH/USD: -0.87%Dollar Tree (DLTR): -0.83%Tencent ADR (TCEHY): -0.77%Bitcoin Futures (BMC): -0.71%BTC/USD: -0.68%Schlumberger (SLB): -0.64%Moderna (MRNA): -0.59%Zoom Video (ZM): -0.54%SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): -0.54%Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): -0.54%Shopify Inc (SHOP): -0.52%Home Depot (HD): -0.51%Qualcomm (QCOM): -0.51%Pfizer (PFE): -0.48%Nio A ADR (NIO): -0.44%Chevron (CVX): -0.39% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There is a lot said over the course of the hour long press conference. Below is a bucketing of the comments by topic (thank you AI) from Fed Chair Powell. Overall, what we know is the Fed Chair is cautious on inflation due to tariffs, acknowledges that employment shows some signs of weakness especially for those that lost their jobs. He acknowledges that the Fed is in a good place and can react to incoming data. He is feeling good about the economy.Below is the review by topic. Inflation“Had three months of favorable inflation readings, which was welcome news.”“Core services inflation has been grinding down; goods inflation is moving up a bit, expect more in summer.”“Can’t assume inflation will just move up and then back down as projections show.”“Fed expects meaningful inflation in coming months; waiting to see the size of effects.”“Compared to Sept 2024, inflation forecast is higher now due to tariffs.”“Will take confidence that inflation is coming down—without tariffs, that confidence would be building.”“Fed will restore 2% inflation on a durable and sustainable basis.”“Best thing Fed can do is deliver price stability and full employment.”Powell acknowledged progress on inflation, with three months of favorable data and easing in core services prices. However, he emphasized that inflation may not follow a smooth path down. Goods inflation is picking up, and the Fed expects more inflation pressure, particularly from tariffs. Sustained 2% inflation remains the goal, and while policy is helping, confidence in progress is not yet sufficient.Tariffs“Tariffs take time to work their way to the consumer.”“Starting to see tariff impacts; expects more in coming months.”“Many companies expect to pass some or all of tariff costs to consumers.”“Adapting in real-time to estimates of how high tariffs will be.”“Do not know where tariffs will settle out—highly uncertain.”“Cost of tariffs has to be paid, some will fall on consumers.”“Hard to know how Fed should react until they see size of tariff effects.”“Tariffs contribute to higher near-term inflation forecast.”Tariffs are a major source of uncertainty and inflation risk. Powell noted that their impact takes time to reach consumers, but signs are already emerging. Many firms intend to pass tariff costs through to consumers, and the Fed is adjusting expectations in real time. The unpredictable nature and scale of tariff effects complicate policymaking, reinforcing the need for actual data before the Fed makes decisive moves.Labour Market / Employment“Can see a perhaps slow, continued cooling in labor market, but nothing troubling.”“No evidence of increased slack except at the margin.”“Very few people are being laid off, but those out of the workforce are struggling to return.”“Labour market is not crying out for a rate cut.”“Supply and demand have kept unemployment at a reasonable level (4.2%).”“US economy has defied many forecasts of weakening.”The labor market is gradually cooling, but not in a way that alarms the Fed. Powell sees no major slack, with unemployment remaining low and layoffs minimal. However, some people who left the workforce are finding it hard to return. The Fed does not see the labor market as weak enough to justify rate cuts, and overall, it remains a pillar of strength for the economy.Policy / Rate Outlook“Appropriate to hold where we are; policy is in a good place.”“Rate path depends on data; no one holds rate paths with strong conviction.”“Divergence in dot plot reflects different economic forecasts.”“At some point, rate cuts will be appropriate.”“Projections are divergent, but there was strong support for today’s decision.”“Waiting a couple of months may lead to smarter policy decisions.”“Not saying rate hikes are the base case; lack of high conviction on rate path.”“Policy is modestly restrictive, not very restrictive.”“Must be forward-looking; need to see actual data before acting.”Powell made it clear that policy is currently "in a good place," and that further moves will be highly data-dependent. Divergent views on rate paths reflect different economic forecasts, not disagreement on principles. While no one has strong conviction on the precise path ahead, there is a shared view that rate cuts may eventually be appropriate—once inflation and labor market data support it. The Fed is purposefully patient and prefers to wait for clearer signals.Economic Growth / Resilience“Economy has been resilient—partly due to the Fed’s stance.”“Feels more positive than three months ago.”“US economy continues to surprise forecasters.”The US economy continues to outperform forecasts, thanks in part to the Fed’s stance. Powell said recent resilience has surprised many and supports the decision to hold steady for now. Business sentiment has improved from three months ago, adding to optimism around the outlook.Sentiment / Uncertainty“Sentiment has improved from very low levels, though still depressed.”“Uncertainty peaked in April and has come down since.”“Uncertainty reduction is reflected in the statement language adjustment.”“The time will come when we have more confidence; cannot say exactly when.”Sentiment has rebounded from very low levels, and overall economic uncertainty—after peaking in April—has begun to ease. Powell indicated that this change in tone is reflected in the language of the FOMC statement. Still, the Fed is awaiting more clarity before shifting policy meaningfully.Data Reliability“US is a leader in measuring the economy—hates to see data quality diminish.”“Having reliable data is a huge public good, helps businesses and policymakers.”“Not concerned the Fed can’t do its job with current data, but good data is essential.”Powell stressed the importance of high-quality economic data, calling it a public good that supports both Fed policy and business planning. While the Fed can function with current data, he warned against complacency, emphasizing the long-term value of maintaining America's global leadership in economic measurement.Other TopicsHousing: “Housing situation is a longer-run problem.”Trump Criticism & Policy: “We did not talk about Trump’s bill; it’s still evolving.”“Not saying Americans should expect pain in H2 2025.”Powell briefly touched on long-run challenges in the housing market and distanced the Fed from ongoing political discussions, including President Trump’s evolving “bill.” He rejected the idea that Americans should expect hardship later this year, though acknowledged the economy still faces risks. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

If this was anyone else, I would say that dramatically decreases the likelihood of a US strike but I'm not so sure with Trump. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As Powell speaks on the impact on inflation of tariffs is coming but just don't how much, the stock markets are tiring. He also called the policy not that restrictive and that the labor market is not crying out for a rate cut. The Fed Chair is not in any hurry to do anything and this will ultimately tick off Pres. Trump. The major US stock indices erased earlier gains, with the NASDAQ Index dipping to an intraday low of 19,489.56. That low came within a single point of its rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 19,488.85. Buyers once again leaned on that technical level—just as they did last Friday—pushing the index back up to 19,540 at last check.The repeated support bounce adds to the technical significance of the 100-hour moving average. As long as the price remains above it, the short-term bias stays cautiously bullish. However, a break below could open the door for accelerated downside momentum, with the 200-hour moving average at 19,199.99 (yes, lots of nines) serving as the next key downside target.For the S&P index, the price did break below its 100-hour moving average currently at 5987.24. The current price is trading below that level at 5977.96 down -4.8 points or -0.8% on the day. Staying below that level would be more bearish for the NASDAQ index and have traders looking toward its 200 hour moving average at 5926.72. The last time the price traded below its 200 hour moving average was back on April 30. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It takes some time to see goods inflation from tariffs move onto the consumerMany, many companies do expect to put 'some or all' effects of tariffs onto the consumerPeople generally expect inflation to move up and then come back down but can't assume thatUncertainty peaked in April and has come downYou can make a case for any of the rate paths you see in the SEPNo one holds rate path projections with a great deal of convictionAs we get more data, the differences in forecasts will be smallerWe expect a meaningful amount of inflation in the next few monthsThe economy is still solid so we can take the time to see what will happenWe will make smarter decisions if we wait a couple of months or however long it's going to takeLabor supply is diminishing because of lower immigration, demand is also falling and that's kept unemployment reasonably stablePeople are working their way through tariffs, it feels much more positive and constructiveThe market wanted to hear something more dovish and the US dollar is rallying on the sense that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates, and might not cut at all.The bolded line was the one that hit the hardest. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD: The pair moved higher after the FOMC rate decision, reflecting a weaker US dollar, and tested the earlier high near 1.15294. The price reached 1.15283—just shy of that earlier high —before rotating back lower to trade around 1.1512 currently. On the downside, the 200-hour moving average at 1.14907 remains a critical support level. A break and sustained move below that level would increase the bearish bias from a technical standpoint and have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May low. That level comes in at 1.14164. Conversely, a move above the session high would shift focus toward the 100-hour moving average at 1.15398. Breaking through that level would strengthen the bullish bias going forward. The high price yesterday reached 1.1578. The high price from last week reached 1.16297.GBPUSD: The high price for the GBPUSD moved up to test the highs for the day at 1.3475 which was just short of the high price for the day at 1.34755. The price is currently trading at 1.3448 off of that high level. The key level on the downside remains the 200 bar movie average on the four hour chart. That level comes in at 1.34345. The low of a swing level comes in at 1.3423. The low for the weekend the low from May 29 comes in near 1.3413. The price remains within a neutral area below 1.34729 and above the 200 bar movie average on the four hour chart at 1.34345.USDJPY: The pair briefly dipped below the near-converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages between 144.41 and 144.48, reaching a session low of 144.32. However, buyers quickly stepped in, and the price has rebounded to 144.68. That puts it just above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May high, located at 144.603.Price action around the moving averages and retracement level remains technically neutral, but with the pair now trading above all three key levels, the short-term bias tilts in favor of buyers—as long as the price can hold above those levels.USDCAD: The pair moved higher during the North American morning session, briefly trading above the top of a swing area near 1.36923, with the session high reaching 1.36952. After the FOMC rate decision, however, the price reversed lower, falling to a post-decision low of 1.36541.The 200-hour moving average, currently at 1.3646, remains a key support level. A break and sustained move below that level would open the door for a test of the day’s low at 1.36337, which also roughly aligns with the low from June 5. A move below that zone would shift focus toward the 100-hour moving average, which currently comes in at 1.36119. On the top side, it would still take a move above 1.36858 and 1.36923 (and staying above) to increase the bullish bias and have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement of the range since the May high. That level comes in at 1.3722.USDCHF: Following the FOMC rate decision, USDCHF initially moved lower, testing support near the 0.8155 swing level and the earlier session low. Buyers stepped in at that area, helping to push the price back higher. The pair is now trading above the 200-hour moving average at 0.81684, giving buyers a short-term advantage.However, the recovery remains incomplete. To further strengthen the bullish bias, the price needs to ultimately move above the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline, which comes in at 0.8216. Holding above the 200-hour moving average keeps the door open for more upside, but a break above 0.8216 is needed to truly shift momentum back in favor of buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Unemployment rate remains low and has stayed in a narrow rangeLabor market is not a source of inflationConditions are broadly in balanceInflation has been running somewhat above goalInflationary effects of tariffs could be one-time or 'more persistent'Our obligation is to prevent a one-time increase becoming a longer term problemProjections are not a plan, and subject to uncertaintyThere were minimal moves in FX as he spoke in his opening statement. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I expect some serious fence-sitting in this appearance. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.