The NZDUSD is trading higher by around 0.50% on the day at 0.5919, with buyers maintaining the upper hand after the pair shifted its short-term technical bias to the upside late last week.On Friday, the price moved back above both its 100-hour moving average at 0.5872 and 200-hour moving average at 0.58757. Reclaiming those key moving averages tilted the short-term bias in favor of the buyers and turned attention toward the late-July/early-August swing highs near 0.59066.In trading today, the NZDUSD extended above that 0.59066 level, adding to the bullish momentum. The move higher, however, has run into the next important resistance zone — a swing area dating back to early April between 0.59187 and 0.59280. The high so far has reached 0.5925, putting the pair squarely within that resistance area but still short of a clean breakout.The subsequent pullback during the early North American session took the price back toward the former resistance at 0.59066, but buyers stepped in ahead of that level. That is a positive technical development. Former resistance is so far acting as support, keeping buyers firmly in control.The next challenge is clear. A sustained move above 0.59280 would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door for further upside, with the late-May high near 0.5993 becoming the next major target.For now, the technical picture remains tilted to the upside:Buyers remain in control above 0.59066.Immediate resistance: 0.59187–0.59280. Break above 0.59280: Opens the door toward 0.5993. Move back below 0.59066: Would take some of the steam out of today's bullish move and weaken the short-term technical picture. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This is the week we find out whether the US consumer is bending, breaking or doing what it always does: Surprising.On Friday, US retail sales fell 0.6% compared to a 0.1% rise expected and core numbers were also soft. That contrasts with months of outperformance and leaves a bit of a question mark on where spending really stands.This week, we will get some corporate help in understanding how consumers are feeling. The earnings schedule:Tuesday, before the open: Home DepotWednesday, before the open: Target, TJX, Lowe's, Estée LauderThursday, before the open: Walmart, Advance Auto PartsThursday, after the close: Ross StoresFriday, before the open: BJ's WholesaleWalmart management has already told us shoppers are showing signs of financial distress, citing changes in gas-buying behavior, and responded with price cuts and the new housing market is bombed out so the bar is low. That might mean room for upside but could also show that inflation is really biting.HD starts things off and it's the cleanest read on the big-ticket, rate-sensitive consumer at a time when borrowing rates are rising. Housing turnover remains depressed and the home improvement cycle has been stuck in neutral for the better part of two years.The problem is the price. Home Depot trades at roughly 23.5–24x forward earningsTarget carries the highest risk — it's the only one that raised full-year guidance last quarter, after comparable sales grew 5.6% on 4.4% traffic growth and a meaningful EPS beat. That guidance raise is now a liability. Target's mix skews discretionary — apparel, home goods, the stuff that gets cut first when budgets tighten. Shares have nearly doubled off the lows from late last year. Walmart is a real-time census of American consumption — grocery, general merchandise, pharmacy, e-commerce, and increasingly a high-margin advertising and membership business that the market values as much as the retail operation. The company is fairly candid about how consumers are doing, though I find it sandbags a bit so I wouldn't over-index on some moaning around low-end consumers. Shares have been consolidating so far this year after a healthy run-up. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 34Details:Current single family home sales 39 versus 37 in JulyHome sales over next 6 months 43  versus 43 in July Index of prospective buyers 23 versus 23 in JulyUS 30-year yields hit a fresh cycle high today so that's not going to help the housing market. The economy continues to tick along so consumers may eventually get used to +6% mortgages as that's not something that's going away any time soon. Overall, these numbers are in a deep recession and it's a part of the economy that's in terrible shape despite the uptick this month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF spent most of the latter part of last week trading above its 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below), with the price largely holding that support from Tuesday onward. There were brief dips below the moving average on Wednesday and again on Friday, but both breaks were modest and short-lived and quickly reversed. The pair ultimately closed Friday above the higher 100-hour moving average (blue line on chart), currently at 0.81218, while the 200-hour moving average sits at 0.81075.That technical picture shifted in trading today.The USDCHF rotated lower during the early Asian session, breaking first below the 100-hour moving average and then the 200-hour moving average. Those breaks increased the bearish momentum and sent the price down to a low of 0.8071, just above a key swing area between 0.8060 and 0.80699.Buyers leaned against that support and pushed the price back higher, but the rebound has so far stalled near the broken 200-hour moving average at 0.81075. The recovery reached roughly 0.8106 before sellers reemerged. The price has since rotated back down and currently trades near 0.80945.That makes the 200-hour moving average an important short-term barometer. Staying below 0.81075 keeps the sellers in firmer control and would have traders looking back toward the 0.8060–0.80699 swing area. A break below that zone would open the door toward the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the late-May low to the July high at 0.80491.Below that, attention would turn toward 0.8029–0.8034, which represents the lower end of the broader trading range that has largely confined the pair over the past two months.For buyers to regain some control, the price needs to get back above the 200-hour moving average at 0.81075, followed by the 100-hour moving average at 0.81218. A sustained move above both would shift the technical bias back in the buyers' favor and put the 0.8138–0.81513 swing area back in play. A break above that resistance would then have traders targeting the July swing highs extending up to 0.82063.For now, with the price below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, the technical bias remains tilted to the downside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The last few days have clearly belonged to the sellers, who have continued to push the USDCAD lower and maintain the strongest technical hand (see prior posts and videos HERE and HERE).On Friday, I highlighted the increasingly important support developing below the market:The low today reached 1.3868, briefly moving below the bottom of a swing area between 1.38683 and 1.3877. However, the decline has so far stalled ahead of two increasingly important downside targets: a channel trendline near 1.3859 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3852. That 200-day moving average is particularly important.I also added:I would not be surprised to see some apprehension on the first test of that level. Sellers who entered at higher levels may look to take some profits, while dip buyers may lean against the moving average looking for a corrective bounce. Importantly, the level also gives those buyers a clearly defined area where risk can be limited.That test has now arrived.The channel trendline and the 200-day moving average have both been tested today, and so far they are holding as support. That makes this area the key technical barometer for the USDCAD today and going forward.For dip buyers leaning against that support, the question now becomes: What would give them some added confidence?The first step would be a move back above the broken swing area between 1.3868 and 1.3877. Getting back above that zone would give buyers some breathing room and shift the focus toward the 50% retracement of the move up from the May 1 low at 1.3899.From there, the upside roadmap becomes increasingly difficult. Buyers would still need to work through the 100-hour moving average at 1.3912, followed closely by the 100-day moving average at 1.39175.So, the road back higher is not an easy one, but the levels are clearly defined:1.3868–1.3877: First hurdle for dip buyers 1.3899: 50% retracement and next upside target 1.3912: 100-hour moving average 1.39175: 100-day moving average On the downside, the 200-day moving average remains the line in the sand. A sustained break below that level would reinforce the sellers' control and open the door for another leg lower. The next major downside target would then come in at the 61.8% retracement at 1.38169.For now, the battle is centered on the 200-day moving average. Hold it, and dip buyers have a chance to build a corrective rebound. Break it, and the sellers remain firmly in control with 1.38169 next on the radar. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is a decent argument that if the Fed remains asleep at the wheel and the AI boom continues for another year, we could inch down the capital stack a tad and get high-quality bonds or notes paying +7%, maybe more.Once you get to those levels, the pull towards bonds and away from equities is a powerful thing, especially in an aging demographic. Now at the same time, everyone is drunk on equity market gains and 7% sounds like two days of holiding Micron stock but it's a number that really compounds. In 10 years, it's nearly a double.  This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Take Profit Trader, a futures proprietary trading firm, has reduced the minimum number of trading days required to pass its evaluation from five to three. For traders already familiar with the funded trading world, they understand this means that taking a payout just got two days shorter. For everyone else, this new program change is a good excuse to explain what a prop firm actually is, what an evaluation measures, and why a three-day minimum matters. What a Prop Firm Is, and Why Evaluations Exist Anyone who is interested in learning to trade futuresquickly finds out that it requires a personal bank account with large amounts of available capital. Large enough to absorb margin requirements, and the losses that come with learning how to trade. Proprietary trading firms, usually shortened to prop firms, address this huge barrier to entry for new traders. Traders at prop firms trade futures up to 23 hrs a day with the firm's capital instead of their own money, and keep the majority of the profits they earn, usually 80-90%, with the firm taking the rest. This means a trader's personal risk is limited to just the fee they pay to participate in the evaluation phase of the prop firm’s program. After the evaluation is passed, the firm pays out trading profits earned, and absorbs all trading losses. In exchange, the firm sets rules designed to protect its capital and only approves funded accounts to traders who, through the evaluation, have shown they have the skills and discipline to trade responsibly. That’s why the evaluation is the first step in a prop firm’s program. A trader pays a fee to open a test account, typically $150-$360 per month depending on which account size the trader wants. Test accounts are in a simulated environment with realistic market data, so no real capital is at risk on either side. In this stage the trader’s job is to reach a defined profit target, while staying inside the firm's evaluation rules. Pass, and the trader moves to a funded account. At TPT (Take Profit Trader), once you’re funded, the monthly fee goes away, and with the new 3-day evals it’s possible to pass your test quickly, and never pay for a second month. At Take Profit Trader a funded account is called PRO, which is still a simulated trading environment, but the trader can request real payouts. Yes, a trader can take profits from the prop firm even though they aren’t earning for the firm in the live market, or paying the firm any fees. In PRO you can take payouts from your first day, and daily. The goal in PRO is for atrader to further improve their skills and get invited by TPT to a PRO+ account to trade in the live market where the data is real, the trades are real, and the capital is real. If all of this is getting confusing, here are the key points of the TPT program: ● Pay a fee to take a trading test in a simulator. ● When you pass the test, you’re funded. ● Funded accounts are still simulated, but the profits are real. You can withdraw them. ● Perform well and you get invited into a live-market account. ● In the live-market you trade TPT’s money, not your own, and TPT covers any losses. The bottom line? For just the cost of a $150-$360 test account, funded traders can get access to $25k-$150k of leverage, per account, and take payouts on profits they earn. The Rules, in Plain Language Take Profit Trader's evaluation centers around a set of test rules. The first rule is profit target, a fixed dollar amount based on account size. A 50,000 dollar evaluation account carries a 3,000 dollar profit target, for example, with larger accounts scaling up from there. This rule is designed to answer the question “can you trade profitably?” The rest of the test rules are designed to answer the question "can you protect profit?” Position size is capped by the account size, ranging from 3-15 contracts per account, so a trader can’t take huge swings to reach the profit target. A trailing drawdown sets a max loss buffer calculated at the end of each trading day. For example, on a $75k account with a profit target of $4,500, the max amount you’re allowed to lose in one day is $2,500. Trading is limited to approved futures products on major exchanges, within a defined daily window, with all positions closed by the end of each day. Then there is the consistency rule, which has two parts. Traders need to hit a minimum number of trading days to pass their test. At Take Profit Trader this used to be ten days, then shrank to five days, and now it’s just three days. The days do not need to be consecutive, and there is no deadline to finish. The second part of the rule hasn’t changed. No single day can account for more than half of the total profit target. This is because if a trader hit the profit target from one big session, that’s probably luck, not skill. Smaller but consistent profit means a trader is likely following a better trading plan, with real risk management habits. The last rule in the TPT evaluation is no counter positions. Holding opposite positions in related products across multiple accounts is prohibited for compliance reasons. Basically you can’t go long in one account on a product, while going short in another account on a similar product. How Traders Tend to Approach PassingNone of what follows is financial advice, and no approach guarantees a pass. But traders who move through evaluations successfully tend to share a few habits. The most common habit is breaking the profit target into daily pieces instead of chasing it all at once. On that $50k account with its $3,000 profit target, a trader might aim for something like $1,200 one day, $1,000 the next, and $800 on a third. These numbers are purely illustrative, but they show the shape of a clean three-day pass. ● The daily minimum is met ● The best day sits near 40% of the total Sizing is the second habit. The contract cap is a ceiling, not a goal. Many experienced traders operate well below the cap and often start with micro contracts, which are smaller versions of standard futures. Trading small may limit how much any single loss can take out of the drawdown buffer, and it gives newer traders room to learn the mechanics without large swings or blowing their test. Risk definition is the third. Because the drawdown is measured at the close of each day, traders often decide their maximum acceptable loss per trade before entering, and keep it small relative to the buffer. Handled that way, a bad trade can stay a bad trade rather than becoming a failed account. The last habit is respecting the clock. Positions cannot carry overnight, and anything still open is flattened automatically at 4:55 PM Eastern. Traders who close positions on their own terms instead, and who know the specific hours of the products they trade, avoid being auto-closed in a fast market at a price they did not choose. A Shorter Timeline, Not a Lower Bar It is tempting to see an evaluation as a gate to get past by swinging big to get it over with. That approach may occasionally work, but it tends to end accounts more often than it funds them. The more productive mindset is to view the eval as a teacher that’s there to help you learn, and build a foundation of solid habits that will carry into funded trading. A trader who passes by working with the rules, trading small, and with consistency, arrives at a funded account already practicing the habits that tend to keep accounts alive. At Take Profit Trader, the rules didn’t get easier, the timeline just got shorter. Some traders may pass in three days, others may take three weeks, and the program treats both paths the same. To mark the launch of 3-day evals, Take Profit Trader is running a flash sale with 50% off all evaluations and no activation fee using the code 50AND3. This sale runs 8/17-8/24, 2026. Full details are available at takeprofittrader.com. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance of any trader or strategy does not indicate future results. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Some comments from a senior Iranian official (unnamed), cited by Reuters:Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to a 'fully offensive one'Pressuring US or relying on mediators to reach a lasting peace is not realisticHas set a deadline of a few weeks for a full implementation of the MOUAll entities will be prepared to escalate tensions in the region if diplomacy failsIran will not wait for US to continue the naval blockade indefinitelyThere is some inflamatory rhetroric here but there's clearly still some diplomacy in play. Trump is also threatening to bomb Oman if it gets in the way. It's hard to see any positive end to this but the market won't care until oil hits $100 or $150. WTI was last up $0.83 to $83.02. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Empire Manufacturing surver results shows:Prior month 15.60NY Fed Manufacturing index 20.60 vs 11.00 estimate. Details: New orders 17.3 vs 22.2 last monthPrices Paid 58.6 vs 52.3 last monthPrices received 22.7 vs 27.6 last monthEmployment 9.3 vs 11.4 last month. Average employee workweek 6.9 versus 2.8 last monthShipments 11.7 vs 24.4 last month. Unfilled orders 15.5 versus 5.0 last month.Delivery time 20.6 versus 13.0 last month.Inventories -5.2 versus 4.0 last month.Supply availability -13.4 versus -10.0 last monthLooking 6 months forward the survey showed: General business conditions 32.1 versus 27.9 last month. New orders 37.1 versus 33.2 last month.Shipments 33.7 versus 30.6 last monthprices paid 57.7 versus 53.0 last month.Prices received 48.7 versus 41.9 last month.Employment 28.2 versus 14.4 last month.Average employee workweek 1.0 versus 2.0 last month.Capital expenditures 16.5 versus 15.0 last month.Supply availability -9.3 versus -8.0 last month.Inventories 7.2 versus 10.0 last month.Delivery time 7.2 versus -4.0 last month.Unfilled orders 19.6 versus -3.0 last monthFrom NY Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz:“New York State manufacturing activity increased at its fastest pace in over four years in August. Employment continued to pick up modestly. However, delivery times were substantially longer and supply availability continued to worsen.” New orders remained strong at 17.3, while shipments came in at 11.7, signaling solid demand and production. Unfilled orders jumped 11 points to 15.5, indicating a growing backlog. Delivery times rose sharply to 20.6, suggesting significant delays. Inventories declined during the month. Supply conditions deteriorated, with the supply availability index falling to -13.4. Bottom line: New York manufacturing showed strong growth and healthy demand in August, but rising backlogs, longer delivery times, and worsening supply availability point to increasing supply-chain pressures. That was reflective in the Prices Paid index moving higher, although prices received did fall.  This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.8%CPI m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected (prior was -0.4%)BOC core +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% priorBOC core +2.3% y/y vs +2.1% priorCPI median +2.0% vs +1.9% expectedCPI trim +1.9% vs +1.8% expectedCPI common +2.7% vs +2.6% priorCanadian inflation has been tracking the rise in oil prices but is insulated somewhat by falling home prices and rents in some parts of the country. The Bank of Canada looks to be firmly in neutral territory at the moment but with the chance of a hike by December rising to 70% and 65 bps of hikes priced in over the next year.For this report, prices for gasoline grew at a faster rate in July of +25.7% y/y compared with June at +20.5% y/y. In a related move, prices for travel tours rose at a faster pace in July (+15.2%) compared with June (+6.8%), likely also aided by the World Cup boost. There are more concrete signs of inflation hitting airfares as well as they're up 12.0% versus 9.6% in June.The bulk of inflation remains in transportation but food and recreation are also adding.If you exclude gasoline, the picture looks benign but that little kink in gasoline prices was a gasoline holiday announced by the Carney environment that's set to end on Sept 7.In terms of m/m granularity, Gasoline +3.6% — the biggest contributor by farTravel tours +11.3% — World CupAir transportation +9.0% — higher jet fuel costs feeding throughTelephone services +3.4% -- The telecom price war finally ending?Fresh fruit +4.7% — the biggest July m/m move since 2011, driven by berries and melonsSo this is a miss but it looks like it's mostly Iran related. There are some downside offsets too:Rent -0.5%Traveller accommodation -4.0%Passenger vehicle purchases -0.4%Women's clothing -1.8%Fresh vegetables -2.6% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar is starting the new trading week on the defensive, trading lower against all of the major currencies as Friday's weaker U.S. retail sales data continues to reverberate through the markets.The EURUSD is up 0.18%, while the GBPUSD is higher by 0.19%. The Japanese yen is also modestly stronger, with the USDJPY down 0.05%. The biggest mover is the Australian dollar, with the AUDUSD up 0.62%.The AUDUSD move appears to be less about fresh Australian news and more about the combination of broad U.S. dollar selling and a relatively hawkish RBA backdrop. Friday's disappointing U.S. retail sales report has traders scaling back expectations for another Fed rate hike. The probability of a September increase has fallen to around 30%, from roughly 50% before the data. U.S. yields are modestly lower as a result, helping to put additional pressure on the dollar.For the Australian dollar, the move is being amplified by the policy divergence between the Fed and RBA. The RBA remains relatively hawkish, while expectations for additional Fed tightening are being pared back. Technically, the price did break above a swing area between 0.7100 and 0.7113 (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the chart below) and the 61.8% at 0.7119. In today's Kickstart video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, along with the other major currency pairs, and outline the bias, risk levels and targets — the three things every trader should be aware of as the new trading week gets underway.Overnight, the economic news was highlighted by a batch of weaker-than-expected data out of China (which does not support the AUDUSD run higher). Fixed Asset Investment fell 6.7% YTD/Y, weaker than the -6.2% estimate and -5.7% previously. Industrial Production slowed to 4.5% Y/Y versus 5.0% expected and 5.3% previously, while Retail Sales rose just 0.6% Y/Y, well below the 1.5% forecast and down from 1.0% previously.China's unemployment rate also ticked higher to 5.2% from 5.0%, above the 5.1% estimate, while New Home Prices fell 0.18% M/M after a 0.15% decline previously. Overall, the data continues to point to softness in domestic demand, investment and the property sector.In the U.S. stock market, futures are mixed, but technology shares are outperforming:Dow: -130 pointsS&P: +3.49 pointsNasdaq 100: +150 pointsSandisk continues it's run to the upside ignited after the companies Investor Day last week (see post here).  Shares are up 4.1% in premarket trading.  Nvidia shares are up 0.71% as it and OpenAI look to finalize a data center in Ohio.  Micron shares are up 2.92%,  Marvell shares are up 1.68%. Bloom Energy is up 4.29% recouping the 2.66% fall on FridayIn the U.S. debt market, Treasury yields are modestly lower across the curve:2-year: 4.1626%, down 0.8 basis points5-year: 4.3568%, down 0.7 basis points10-year: 4.6882%, down 0.8 basis points30-year: 5.2635%, down 0.3 basis pointsThe moves are relatively modest, but the lower yields are consistent with the softer dollar and the scaling back of expectations for additional Fed tightening. The expectation for a September hike is down to 30%.  In other markets, crude oil is up $0.16 at $82.56, after trading as high as $83.23 and as low as $81.50.Gold is also benefiting from the softer dollar, rising $26.21, or 0.60%, to $4,402.37, while silver is up 1.64% at $65.77. Bitcoin is up 1.26% at $63,626.On today's North American economic calendar, the main event will be Canadian CPI at 8:30 AM ET. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.4% M/M, after falling 0.4% previously. Median CPI is expected at 2.0% Y/Y, up from 1.9%, while trimmed CPI is forecast to remain at 1.8%.Also at 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 10.6, down from 15.6 previously.At 10:00 AM ET, the NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to edge lower to 33 from 34.With the U.S. economic calendar relatively light, Friday's weaker retail sales report, the repricing of Fed expectations and the resulting moves in the dollar and yields should remain key drivers as North American traders enter for the day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Dollar comes under pressure to start the new weekIran reaffirms that talks have not yet begun with the USChina retail sales disappoint in July, industrial output slows while new home prices extend declinesChina stats bureau says July economic activity affected by extreme weather conditions, among other factorsNo major US data releases but this week will feature a big test on consumer healthMarkets:AUD leads, USD lags on the dayEuropean indices mostly a little higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $82.77Gold up 0.6% to $4,402US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.686%Bitcoin up 0.9% to $63,603It was a quieter session as markets continue to assess the Middle East situation, while also weighing up the Fed outlook ahead of Jackson Hole next week.There won't be any major US economic data releases on the calendar this week, so traders will be left to their own devices for the most part in figuring things out.The US-Iran stalemate continues but the dollar is seen moving lower on the day, helped by a couple of technical pushes. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1590 after briefly touching a high of 1.1615 earlier. That comes with AUD/USD also moving to a fresh two-month high of 0.7125, up 0.6% on the day. Meanwhile, USD/JPY stays more muted and is down just 0.1% to 159.20.The overall risk mood is keeping steadier, with tech shares looking for a bounce to start the new week. European indices are lightly changed while S&P 500 futures are up 0.1%, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5%. This week, we will see major retailers in the US report earnings so that will be a checkpoint for the US consumer.Elsewhere, the bond market is not seeing too much action with 10-year yields in the US down just 1 bps to 4.686% - still keeping at the highs for the most part.In the commodities space, WTI crude oil is up 0.5% to $82.77 while gold is up 0.6% to $4,402 in keeping thereabouts with the same levels seen last week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Berkshire Hathaway Starts Putting Its Cash to Work: What Investors Can Learn From Greg Abel's StrategyBerkshire Hathaway is beginning to use more of its enormous cash reserve. During the second quarter, it bought $23.5 billion of stocks, sold $3.7 billion, and repurchased $4.5 billion of its own shares. This is a meaningful change in direction, but not an aggressive bet that the market can only go higher.Key takeaways for Berkshire Hathaway investorsBerkshire became a net buyer: It purchased about $19.8 billion more stocks than it sold, ending 14 consecutive quarters of net selling.Capital went into two places: Berkshire bought external stocks and repurchased its own shares, showing confidence in selected opportunities as well as its own valuation.The cash pile remains enormous: Cash and short-term holdings fell from $380.2 billion to $364.7 billion, a decline of only about 4.1%.Alphabet was the main public-equity signal: Berkshire increased its Alphabet stake by 83%, making it the conglomerate's third-largest listed stock holding.Do not over-attribute the trades: The filing does not identify who selected each investment. Warren Buffett said Alphabet was originally his idea, while Buffett and Greg Abel continue to consult on capital allocation.What changed in Berkshire Hathaway's latest filing?The individual stock purchases attract the headlines, but the larger story is a change in Berkshire's capital-allocation behavior.According to Berkshire's SEC filing, the disclosed portfolio reflects its US-listed holdings on June 30, 2026. Berkshire increased its Alphabet position to nearly 106 million shares, worth approximately $37.8 billion at quarter-end. It also increased its Delta Air Lines stake by 44% to approximately $5.4 billion.The following numbers provide a clearer picture of the quarter:What stands out to me is the combination. Buying external companies says, "We see selected opportunities." Repurchasing Berkshire shares says, "We also see value inside our own company." Doing both during the same quarter is a stronger capital-allocation signal than either action alone.Is Greg Abel abandoning Berkshire's cautious approach?No. The better interpretation is that Berkshire has moved from extreme patience to selective deployment.Its cash reserve declined by approximately $15.5 billion, from $380.2 billion to $364.7 billion. Put another way, Berkshire still retained roughly 96% of the previous quarter's cash reserve. That is not a wholesale change from caution to aggression.This distinction matters. A company with cash can deploy it through several channels:Invest in existing operating businesses.Acquire entire companies.Buy shares of publicly traded companies.Repurchase its own shares.Keep money in cash and short-term government securities while waiting.Berkshire used at least two of those channels more actively during the quarter. It also continued holding hundreds of billions of dollars in cash and US Treasury bills. That reserve provides liquidity for its insurance operations and gives Abel the ability to move quickly if markets fall or a large acquisition becomes available.What this means: Cash is not automatically "wasted" simply because it has not been invested in stocks. Short-term Treasury bills generate interest, while liquidity gives an investor the option to buy when better opportunities appear.Why ending 14 quarters of net selling mattersA single purchase can be opportunistic. A change following 14 consecutive net-selling quarters may indicate something broader: Berkshire found the balance between market valuations and expected future returns more attractive than it had for several years.That does not mean Abel or Buffett believes the entire stock market is cheap. Berkshire sold or reduced several holdings while adding to others. The pattern remains selective, not market-wide.This is an important lesson for newer investors. Professional capital allocation is rarely a choice between being "all in" or "all out." Berkshire can simultaneously:Build a major Alphabet position.Increase Delta and selected housing exposure.Reduce Bank of America and other holdings.Exit Constellation Brands.Buy back Berkshire shares.Preserve more than $360 billion of liquidity.The portfolio can therefore become more active without management making one giant prediction about the S&P 500.What does the Alphabet investment tell investors?Alphabet became Berkshire's third-largest listed stock holding, behind Apple and American Express. That makes it more than a small experimental position.The investment suggests that Berkshire sees attractive long-term value in Alphabet's competitive position, cash generation and AI infrastructure opportunity. However, it should not be treated as proof that Alphabet shares must rise from today's price.There are at least three reasons not to copy the trade automatically:The filing is delayed: Investors learned about the June 30 holdings on August 14.Berkshire's time horizon is unusually long: It can tolerate volatility that may be uncomfortable for a smaller investor.The purchase price matters: A good company can still be a poor investment if bought at an excessive valuation.The most useful question is not, "Should I buy because Berkshire bought?" It is, "What qualities did Berkshire probably find attractive, and do those qualities fit my own valuation, timeframe and risk limits?"What can a 13F filing tell investors, and what can it hide?A Form 13F is a quarterly snapshot of certain reportable US-listed securities held by a large investment manager. It is useful, but incomplete.This is why investors should read the 13F alongside Berkshire's quarterly report. The second-quarter report shows the cash, Treasury bill, operating-business and buyback context that the stock-holdings filing cannot provide on its own.Was this really Greg Abel's decision?The filing supports saying that Berkshire is deploying more capital during the Abel era. It does not support claiming that Abel personally selected every stock.According to Reuters, Abel oversees approximately 94% of Berkshire's stock holdings, while investment manager Ted Weschler handles the remainder. However, the filing does not identify the individual behind each transaction. Buffett has also said the Alphabet investment was initially his idea and that he and Abel consult on capital allocation.The fairest conclusion is therefore that Berkshire's capital-allocation machine is becoming more active under Abel's leadership, with Buffett still involved as chairman and adviser.What should Berkshire Hathaway investors watch next?The next several quarters will show whether this was a particularly attractive window or the beginning of a more durable shift.The most useful indicators are:The direction of the cash reserve: A continued decline would signal further deployment.Net stock purchases: Repeated net buying would be more meaningful than one active quarter.Share repurchases: Buybacks indicate whether management continues to see Berkshire trading below its estimate of intrinsic value.Large acquisitions: A full-company purchase could consume more capital than several quarters of public-stock buying.Operating performance: Capital allocation cannot fully compensate for weakness inside major businesses, including insurance.For Berkshire shareholders, the constructive scenario is that Abel finds attractive investments without sacrificing the financial strength that makes Berkshire unusual. The risk is that faster deployment produces lower future returns or that management pays too much during a strong market.For now, the evidence points to disciplined movement, not a spending spree. Berkshire has started opening the cash vault, but it has barely reduced the size of the vault itself.Frequently asked questions about Berkshire's cash pileHow much cash did Berkshire Hathaway hold at the end of the second quarter?Berkshire reported approximately $364.7 billion of cash and short-term holdings at June 30, 2026, down from $380.2 billion three months earlier.Which stock became Berkshire's third-largest listed holding?Alphabet became Berkshire's third-largest listed stock holding after the position increased by 83% to nearly 106 million shares, valued at about $37.8 billion at quarter-end.Does Berkshire's buying mean the entire market is undervalued?No. Berkshire bought selected stocks, sold or reduced others, repurchased its own shares and retained more than $360 billion of liquidity. The activity indicates selective opportunity rather than a blanket bullish call on the market.The lesson here is not that investors should automatically buy Alphabet because Berkshire bought it. That decision is yours, and investingLive does not provide personalized investment advice. The more useful habit is to follow what major investors such as Berkshire are doing through their 13F filings, then use those disclosures as a starting point for your own research. Ask whether the holding is new or an addition to an existing position, how large it is relative to the investor’s total portfolio, which other holdings were reduced or sold to fund it, and whether the purchase reflects long-term conviction or a more tactical opportunity. Investors should also remember that 13F filings are delayed and do not reveal the exact purchase price, the reasoning behind the trade or whether the position changed after quarter-end. Instead of simply copying a famous investor, study the qualities they may have identified, compare the company’s fundamentals and valuation with your own expectations, and decide whether the opportunity fits your timeframe and risk tolerance. The real value of a 13F is not the answer it gives you, but the better questions it teaches you to ask. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The UK’s artificial intelligence boom is becoming visible in the country’s economic growth data. Britain’s economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, slowing from 0.6% in the first quarter but proving more resilient than many had feared. More importantly for investors, the information and communications sector accounted for almost half of the expansion, making it the largest contributor among industries. Within the sector, computer programming, consultancy and related activities — areas increasingly intertwined with AI — jumped 3.7% quarter-on-quarter after rising 3.8% in the previous quarter. That suggests something more significant than a temporary technology-sector upswing may be taking place: AI is beginning to reshape the UK economy through investment before its full productivity benefits have even arrived.AI is becoming a capital-spending storyThe clearest evidence is emerging in business investment: UK spending on plant and machinery reached £22.1 billion in the second quarter, close to a one-off record recorded in early 2022. The latest increase was particularly notable for information and communications technology equipment, including computer hardware. That is important because AI is fundamentally more than a software story. Every increase in AI adoption requires computing power, servers, networking equipment, data centres, electricity and cooling infrastructure.The chain is relatively straightforward: more AI applications create demand for more computing capacity, which creates demand for chips and servers, which in turn requires more data centres, power infrastructure and specialised engineering. In other words, AI adoption is creating an investment cycle of its own.The UK is already seeing some of this effect in manufacturing. Output from British manufacturers of computing, electronic and optical products increased 10.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, making the industry the fastest-growing of the 13 manufacturing subsectors.For traders and investors, this broadens the AI opportunity. The beneficiaries may not be limited to software companies. Semiconductor designers, networking companies, data-centre operators, power providers, engineering firms and other infrastructure suppliers could all participate in the expansion. The question is therefore shifting from “who is building the best AI model?” to “who is supplying the infrastructure required to run the AI economy?”Britain does not need to build the next Nvidia to benefitThis is where the UK’s AI strategy becomes particularly interesting. Britain is unlikely to dominate every part of the AI value chain. The US has a substantial lead in frontier AI models and hyperscale cloud infrastructure, while East Asia occupies a critical position in semiconductor manufacturing. But Britain has a potentially valuable position elsewhere: chip design, research, advanced computing and specialised AI hardware.The government’s AI Hardware Plan, published in June, is explicitly designed to strengthen Britain’s capabilities in chips and semiconductor technologies underpinning AI. It aims to ensure that more of the economic value generated by AI and computing infrastructure is captured through UK-designed technologies.The government has also highlighted the scale of the opportunity with estimates that the global AI-chip market could reach $1 trillion in the early 2030s according to McKinsey. Capturing just 5% of that market would potentially generate $50 billion of revenue for the UK, alongside tens of thousands of highly paid technology jobs. That makes companies such as Arm and emerging AI-chip developers particularly relevant to the longer-term investment story. The government has specifically identified Arm, Fractile and OLIX among British companies developing technologies for the next generation of AI infrastructure.The opportunity is therefore less about Britain producing its own version of OpenAI and more about becoming an important supplier to the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure ecosystem. Britain does not necessarily need to win the AI model race to win part of the AI infrastructure race.From AI adopter to AI producerThat distinction is also behind the government’s push for greater technological sovereignty. The objective is gradually shifting from simply encouraging British businesses and public services to use AI towards ensuring that more of the underlying technology is developed, financed and commercialised domestically.The government’s AI Hardware Plan is structured around innovation, skills, procurement and investment, with international partnerships intended to help British companies develop and scale. It also includes support through a £500 million Sovereign AI Fund and a new deep-tech hardware venture fund backed by up to £150 million from the British Business Bank.This is an important development for investors because it turns AI from a technology theme into an industrial-policy theme. If successful, the UK could move progressively through four stages: 1. AI consumer, 2. AI adopter, 3. AI infrastructure provider, and 4. AI technology producer.The economic payoff becomes much larger at the final two stages. Instead of simply spending money on American AI platforms, Britain could capture revenue through chip design, intellectual property, infrastructure, exports and high-value employment. That is the strategic rationale behind supporting domestic companies such as OLIX, which is developing AI chips designed to be faster, cheaper and more energy efficient.The challenge, however, is not simply inventing the technology. Britain has historically demonstrated considerable strength in scientific research and technological innovation, but commercialising those breakthroughs and scaling companies globally has been more difficult. The success of the UK’s AI strategy will ultimately be measured by whether promising British technologies remain British economic assets as they scale.The data-centre boom could be the next major catalystAnother part of the AI story deserves greater attention from investors: data centres. The Bank of England says the UK has the largest data-centre pipeline in Europe and expects significant investment to be required to deliver it. If those projects are completed, the central bank says they could support UK growth through their aggregate impact on investment. That creates another layer of potential beneficiaries: the AI investment chain extends from semiconductor designers to data-centre construction, electricity generation, grid connections, cooling systems, telecommunications and engineering.This is why the UK’s AI opportunity should not be viewed purely through the lens of technology stocks. For equity investors, the second-order beneficiaries may ultimately prove just as important as the headline AI names. It also creates a potentially attractive way of tracking the AI cycle through traditional economic data. Continued growth in ICT investment, semiconductor output, data-centre construction and electricity demand could provide tangible evidence that AI spending is becoming embedded in the wider economy.The biggest test is still productivityThere is, however, an important reason for investors to remain cautious: AI-related investment is not the same thing as AI-driven productivity.Companies can spend billions on servers, chips and data centres without immediately producing more output per employee. The initial economic impact can therefore be positive because investment itself contributes to GDP, even before businesses have demonstrated that the technology can generate sufficient returns.The Bank of England has explicitly highlighted this uncertainty. It sees significant potential for AI to raise productivity and support long-term growth, but notes that the scale and timing of those gains — and companies’ ability to monetise them — remain uncertain. That creates two very different investment scenarios:In the bullish scenario: today’s AI capex eventually translates into higher productivity, lower operating costs, stronger corporate margins and faster potential GDP growth. Britain could simultaneously benefit from domestic adoption and from exporting technologies used throughout the global AI ecosystem.In the bearish scenario: Britain could end up funding a substantial AI infrastructure buildout while the highest-value intellectual property and economic rents remain concentrated elsewhere.There is also a financial risk. The Bank of England has warned that AI-related companies are increasingly turning to debt and other external financing to fund infrastructure, with the pace of investment accelerating rapidly during the first half of 2026. That means AI is becoming not only a technology and macroeconomic story, but increasingly a credit-market story as well.What investors should watch nextFor traders and investors, the next phase of the UK AI story can be tracked through 5 key indicators:First, ICT and computer-hardware investment will show whether the current capex surge is becoming structural.Second, information and communications output will reveal whether the recent acceleration in programming, consultancy and related activities can continue.Third, investors should monitor UK semiconductor investment and commercialisation, particularly the ability of domestic companies to move from promising technology to scalable exports.Fourth, data-centre construction and power infrastructure could become increasingly important as AI computing demand expands.Finally, the most important confirmation signal will be UK productivity growth. If productivity eventually accelerates, the AI story will have moved beyond an investment boom and into a genuine transformation of the UK’s productive capacity.That is the transition investors should ultimately care about.The UK’s AI opportunity is therefore bigger than whether Britain can produce the next Nvidia or OpenAI. The country may already be entering the first phase of an AI-driven investment cycle, with the effects showing up in computer hardware, technology services and advanced manufacturing.The harder question is whether Britain can capture enough of the value created by that investment. For now, the UK’s AI boom is showing up in capital spending and economic activity. The next phase will determine whether that spending becomes productivity, exports and sustainable growth.Sources: ONS, Bank of England, Reuters, GOV.UK, McKinsey, Yahoo FinanceThe information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

No talks have begun with the USAnd they won't because of US violations of memorandum of understandingThere is no mention of a 60-day deadline in the text of the memorandum of understandingIran will never formulate policies under pressure or time limitsThe agreement stipulated a 60-day period for two main issuesThat being "lifting sanctions" and "nuclear issues", which could be extendedThe violations of the memorandum of understanding mean 60-day timeline became irrelevantThere is plenty of talk about the ceasefire agreement and/or memorandum of understanding expiring over the weekend. Yes, the one that was signed back in late June. But as Iran is making it clear, that 60-day timeline is no longer relevant as it was only after a few weeks after the signing that the agreement fell apart. It was pretty clear cut at the time that everything had fell apart but still, there are some parties trying to tie this all into a big thing.The agreement at the time was supposed to outline the conditions that must be upheld for the next 60 days so that nuclear talks can take place. And those conditions included Iran "reopening" the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifting its naval blockade, Iran seeing some sanctions being lifted, and a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.As mentioned back then, it was a case that everything would fall apart if just one of those conditions failed to be upheld. And as we all know, it was always just going to be a matter of time. So, it was proven to be as well.Fast forward to today, we're pretty much sitting back at a place where we were back in June before the agreement was signed. And we're still no closer to any agreement, especially on nuclear talks, than we were back then too. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The spokesperson of China's statistics bureau is out saying that July economic activity was affected by external uncertainties and also extreme weather conditions, among other factors, amid the poor report here.Adding that Beijing will step up counter-cyclical policy adjustments and expand domestic demand as part of efforts to bolster economic activity.It is interesting that they put the timing of the release to right after the market close but then leave it to the statistics bureau to offer up commentary on making effort to improve domestic demand. Typically, you'd see the economy and/or commerce ministry do that. And the timing of the daily briefings do line up, but yeah.In any case, China will continue to try and talk the talk in bolstering domestic demand conditions but things don't look bright to start the third quarter of the year. And that follows from the already markedly weakening economic growth seen in the second quarter already.The credit data from last week just piles on top of the one today: China new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this year This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The slate of July economic data:July retail sales +0.6% vs +1.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.0%July industrial output +4.5% vs +4.8% y/y expectedPrior +5.3%July fixed-asset investment -6.7% vs -6.0% y/y expectedPrior -5.7%July property investment -19.2% y/yPrior -18.0%July new home prices -0.1% m/mPrior -0.1%July new home prices -3.2% y/yPrior -3.3%Soft numbers all around and they are pretty bad, even for recent bad-news-from-China standards. The deepening declines in fixed-asset and property investments continue to signal that the overall market is struggling hard. And even the supposed one bright spot i.e. retail sales was very much a disappointment. That is despite Beijing's efforts to prop up activity through the likes of consumer trade-in programmes.As mentioned earlier, domestic demand conditions remain in the dumps and the data above continues to underscore that sentiment for the most part.It's a poor set of numbers all in all, which is arguably the reason why Beijing did not want them released during market hours. Chinese indices closed over 1% higher today to roughly one-month highs but with data like this, the gains today may also be in part due to some buying by the 'plunge protection team'. That to try and make things look nicer and distract from the terrible report above.The data above points to further trouble on the ground in China to start Q3 2027, which follows from a poor showing in the previous quarter. For some context, China's Q2 GDP saw a 4.3% year-on-year expansion - the weakest since 2022 - and missed on expectations of 4.5%. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The week ahead will not feature any major economic data releases in the US. That unless you want to count the Philly Fed manufacturing index and the weekly jobless claims report. But even so, there will be a lot of focus on what is happening in the US - in particular Wall Street.After big tech earnings helped to salvage things in the first half of August, it's now over major retail giants to take over next. And this will offer much insight on the overall health of the US consumer with discretionary spending and/or inflation fatigue coming under heavy focus.Here's the list of names to note:18 August (Tuesday): Home Depot19 August (Wednesday): Target, Lowe's, TJX20 August (Thursday): WalmartAs usual, Walmart will be the main one to watch on consumer behaviour patterns alongside offering up an indication of how the US consumer is holding up at the moment. Besides that, Target will also be a focus to take stock of discretionary spending and how middle-class consumers are balancing their expenditure and budget.Apart from consumption behaviours, there will also be heavy scrutiny on the update from major retailers on supply chain disruptions/costs as well as inventory management. All of that will play into the inflation debate, so it is one to be wary about.But overall, these earnings have to be paired with the "hard" US economic data that we saw from last week. That being the CPI, PPI, and retail sales data.I would argue that the earnings may not be too impactful in general but after the softer retail sales numbers from last week, it will be important to see if that is anything more than just a minor hiccup for the US consumer. In turn, that will also factor into play in setting the tone ahead of the next Fed meeting in September. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for USD/JPY at the 159.00 level. But as mentioned before with expiries for the currency pair, it is all about intervention risks right now.The psychological game is what is dictating the narrative for USD/JPY and that isn't going to change this week. Sure, the dollar is on the softer side and may be running into a bit of trouble as noted here. However, the yen's plight is also still being prolonged amid a lack of change in the fundamental drivers.So among all dollar pairs, USD/JPY is one that is least likely to benefit from any dollar pullbacks.While buyers are continuing to poke and prod, they aren't going too far to pushing the agenda in testing waters near the 160 level. That remains the key psychological barrier at this stage, where Tokyo and perhaps US officials may feel more compelled to step into the market again.As such, we're seeing price action keep around the 159 level for almost a week already. The near-term limit appears to be around 159.50 before buyers step back but they seem willing to be dipping their toes in the water again around 158.50-70. The 200-hour moving average at 158.71 will be a key near-term level to be mindful of just in case.Taking everything above into consideration, the expiries today may not be all too much of a factor for USD/JPY besides offering the potential of a minor pull influence.Besides that, major currencies will be eyeing dollar sentiment as the more important driver of price movements for the session ahead.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

In case you missed it earlier: China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slotThe key figures will be for industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property prices. All of this put together will offer up a picture of how the economic momentum in China is holding up at the start of the third quarter this year.What is interesting is that instead of delaying it by a day or anything, they are deciding to move it to 0700 GMT instead.This typically coincides with speech timings for China's economy, finance, and/or commerce ministry. That is when they will typically go about their daily remarks and speak about relevant and pertinent issues from day to day. So, do they see a need to justify/defend something here?What is also interesting is that the timing of the data release will also coincide with the close of China's stock market hours.So, is it all planned in a way so as to not disrupt the market flow and potentially the reaction to the numbers? Or is China cooking up something entirely different? It remains to be seen.In terms of data expectations, industrial production and fixed-asset investment are estimated to weaken slightly in July. The former recorded a +5.3% y/y reading in June but is expected to fall to +4.8% y/y in July. Meanwhile, the latter was seen at -5.7% y/y in June and is expected to decline further to -6.0% y/y in July.It is only retail sales that is expected to offer a more resilient showing, with the estimate seen at +1.5% y/y in July compared to the +1.0% y/y reading in June. That being said, it likely owes to substantiative measures by Beijing such as consumer trade-in programmes. So, it's not a clear signal that domestic demand is keeping more robust.In terms of domestic demand conditions, the picture painted by new bank loans offers a better indictment of China's current situation. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.