Prior month 6.946 million revised up to 7.240 millionJOLTs job openings for February 6.882M vs 6.918M estimateHires 4.849M vs 5.347M last monthSeparations 4.971M versus 5.144M last month Quits 2.974M vs 3.137M last monthLayoffs and discharges 1.721M vs 1.660M last month.The JOLTs job openings fell sharply from 7.240M last month to 6.882M this month. Prior month was revised higher from 6.946M previously reported. Lower job openings is indicative of a weakening labor picture.Here are the February 2026 (p) changes for the major categories:Total: -358 Total private: -307 Industry Breakdown (thousands) showed that all industries show declines with the exception of professional business services:Mining and logging: -12KConstruction: -28KManufacturing: -71KTrade, transportation, and utilities: -8KInformation: -9KFinancial activities: -28KProfessional and business services: +64 Private education and health services: -78KLeisure and hospitality: -213KGovernment: -51KKey takeaway:Broad-based weakness, led by leisure & hospitality (-213) and education/health (-78)Only notable gain: professional & business services (+64)The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers willingness to or ability to leave jobs. A number of quits fell indicative of less confidence in getting another job.Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. The number of layoffs and discharges increased in the current month also indicative of a weaker jobs report.Overall is a weaker report from the revised higher numbers from January. The jolts data is still above the low level from 2025 but the trend is to the downside.The dollar is moving lower with the dollar falling to new lows vs the EUR, GBP, and JPY. The greenback still remains above the lows for the day versus the CHF, CAD, AUD. The dollar tested the low vs the NZD. Oil prices are lower by about $0.41 but still above the $100 level at $102.75. Gold is higher by $94 or 2.08% of $4607. Silver is higher by $3.73 or 5.3% at $73.77. Both gold and silver are reacting to the lower dollar today.US stocks are higher in getting a reprieve from the recent weakness. The NASDAQ is leading the way with a gain of 2.14%. The S&P is up 1.58% and the Dow industrial average is up 1.15%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is up 1.93%.What is the JOLT Job Openings Report?For background, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides comprehensive data on labor market dynamics by tracking job openings, hires, and separations across approximately 16,400 nonfarm establishments nationwide. Released typically on the first Tuesday of each month at 10:00 a.m. ET, the report measures unmet labor demand and became a closely watched indicator after former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen highlighted its importance in 2014. A job opening is defined as a position that is vacant on the last business day of the month, has work available, could start within 30 days, and involves active external recruiting. The survey also breaks down separations into quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations, offering insights into worker confidence and employer demand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 91.2 prior (revised to 91.0)Details:Present situation 123.3 vs 120.0 priorExpectations 70.9 vs 72.0 priorJobs plentiful27.3% vs 26.7% priorJobs hard to get 21.5% vs 21.0% priorRespondents under 35 remain the most optimistic and those 55 and over the least. Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence was substantially lower among Independents and the lowest among Democrats.The report said:“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds. As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably.”US consumer confidence opened 2026 on shaky ground. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged 9.7 points in January to 84.5, its lowest reading since May 2014 and well below the 91.1 level economists had forecast. The decline reflected growing anxiety over geopolitical tensions, persistent affordability pressures, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. All five components of the index deteriorated, with the Present Situation Index dropping to 113.7 and the Expectations Index falling to 65.1 — well below the 80 threshold that has historically signaled recession risk.February brought a modest rebound, with the headline index rising 2.2 points to 91.2. The improvement was driven primarily by the Expectations Index, which climbed 4.8 points to 72.0, while the Present Situation Index slipped further to 120.0. Despite the uptick, the Expectations Index remained below 80 for the thirteenth consecutive month — the longest sustained stretch below that level since the 2008 financial crisis.The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index told a similar story. Michigan's gauge came in at 56.6 in February, barely changed from January's 56.4, with households across income groups, age brackets, and political affiliations reporting weaker expectations for personal finances. Year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 3.4%, halting six months of declines, while longer-term expectations edged down slightly to 3.2%.Spending intentions in early 2026 have gravitated toward affordable necessities and lower-cost services, with restaurants, streaming, and personal care topping the list of planned outlays. Vacation plans softened in February, and while big-ticket purchase intentions improved slightly, consumers remained cautious about expensive discretionary spending.Taken together, the early-2026 data paint a picture of a consumer base that views current conditions as tolerable but is increasingly wary about what lies ahead — a dynamic with significant implications for the roughly two-thirds of US GDP driven by household spending. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF has been riding the broader trend of dollar buying, with the technicals lining up firmly in favor of the buyers.Last week, the pair broke above both the 100-day MA (0.7889) and the 200-day MA (0.7945), and also pushed through a downward-sloping trendline going back to November 2025. That combination helped shift the longer-term bias more decisively to the upside.This week, the price extended above a key swing area between 0.7978 and 0.7989, and has been able to hold above that zone—give or take a pip or two. That area is now a critical risk-defining level:Stay above = buyers remain firmly in controlMove below = momentum starts to fadeThat said, there is some hesitation near the 0.8000 natural resistance level. The price has stalled twice—on Monday and again today—near 0.8012, establishing a short-term ceiling.For the bullish case to gain traction:A break above 0.8012 would open the door toward the next target near 0.8041, which includes the January 15 high and a topside channel trendlineOn the downside:A move back below 0.7978 would shift focus toward 0.7957, followed by the 200-day MA at 0.7945 A break below that cluster would give sellers more confidence and force buyers to reassess Bottom line: The bias remains bullish while above 0.7978, but buyers need to get through 0.8012 to extend the trend. Failure to do so risks a corrective pullback. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is stretching higher, and in the process has moved back above a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937. That break tilts the bias more to the upside, with both price action and technicals aligned in favor of the buyers.Fundamentally, Canadian GDP came in slightly stronger than expected, which may be offering some support, but this move is being driven more by the trend and technical momentum.Since bottoming near 1.3670 last Monday, the pair has been in a steady grind higher, characterized by modest, shallow corrections—a sign of a market that remains comfortably bid. Importantly, both Friday and Monday saw buyers lean against the 61.8% retracement at 1.3888, reinforcing that level as a solid risk-defining floor.Now that the price is back above the 1.3924–1.3937 swing area, that zone becomes the new barometer for buyers vs. sellers:Stay above = buyers remain in control, with upside targets at 1.3971 and 1.3984Move back below = momentum starts to fade, and the bias shifts more neutral to bearish For shorter-term clues, watch the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 5-minute chart (see blue and green lines on the chart below). Since last Tuesday, the price has traded mostly above the 200-bar MA, with only brief dips below. Those dips have lacked follow-through, and buyers have consistently stepped back in.If that changes— and the price breaks below the 200-bar MA with momentum—it would signal that a deeper corrective phase may be underway.Bottom line: The trend is higher, and buyers remain in control—but they need to hold above 1.3924 to keep the momentum intact. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior 1.4%House price M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% expectedPrior +0.5%House price data from the FHFA:Prices +1.6% y/y vs +1.8% prior (revised to +1.9%)Prices +0.1% m/m vs +0.1% priorThe US housing market remains weak and on continuing deceleration. This is January data, so things might have deteriorated much further after the US-Iran war broke out. Mortgage rates have risen substantially due to inflation fears and a much less dovish Fed.What is the Case-Shiller Index:The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is the leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices. It tracks the changes in the value of residential real estate by monitoring the purchase price of the same single-family homes over time.Developed in the 1980s by economists Karl Case and Robert Shiller, it is widely considered the "gold standard" for understanding housing market trends because it avoids the distortions found in "average" or "median" price reports. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.2%Q4 GDP was -0.6%Goods-producing industries expanded by 0.2% for the second month in a rowServices-producing industries were essentially unchanged in January 9 of the 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in January.Canada's economy closed out 2025 on shaky ground, and today's January monthly GDP release arrives at a moment of heightened uncertainty. Real GDP grew just 1.7% for the full year of 2025, the slowest annual pace since the pandemic-driven contraction of 2020, with lower exports to the United States acting as the primary drag. The fourth quarter proved particularly disappointing: output contracted 0.6% on an annualized basis, missing both the Bank of Canada's projection for a flat reading and the consensus call for a modest 0.2% decline. A massive inventory drawdown by manufacturers drove the headline miss, though underlying domestic demand held up better, expanding at a 2.4% quarterly pace.The monthly data offered a slightly more encouraging signal heading into year-end. GDP by industry rose 0.2% in December, edging past expectations, but an advance estimate pointed to flat growth in January — suggesting the economy entered 2026 with limited momentum. Early readings indicated that a brief pickup in manufacturing activity proved short-lived, with the sector contracting again to start the year.The broader backdrop remains complicated. Trade-related uncertainty weighed heavily on business investment throughout 2025, extending a decade of underinvestment that has contributed to Canada's lagging productivity growth. The Bank of Canada, having cut rates by a full percentage point through 2025, held its policy rate at 2.25% in January 2026 and appears firmly set at neutral, leaving limited room for stimulus absent a clear deterioration. Consumer spending has been a relative bright spot, supported by real wage gains and earlier rate relief, but slowing population growth and a softening housing market pose headwinds. Today's print will be closely watched for confirmation that the economy has stabilized — or for signs that the sluggish momentum carried into the new year is deepening. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump is posting about ending the war and leaving the Strait of Hormuz for those impacted by the the closure to figure it out. Trying to solve problems, by creating problems is a theme lately, but we may be entering the blame game phase now.Markets are leaning into the optimism—for now.U.S. equities are higher:S&P +74 pointsDow +530 pointsNasdaq +259 pointsAt the same time, yields are moving lower, with the 10-year down -3.5 bps to 4.306%, after stretching as high as 4.48% on Friday. That pullback in yields is helping support the risk-on tone.Crude oil remains elevated, holding just above $103 after peaking at $106.86 earlier today. Importantly, prices are back above $100, a level not sustained since 2022, keeping geopolitical risk firmly priced in.In FX, the USD is moving lower, with key technical levels now in play:EURUSD: Testing a swing area between 1.1484 and 1.1491. Above = more bullish momentum, targeting the falling 100-hour MA near 1.1519Below = sellers stay in controlGBPUSD: Pressing against resistance between 1.3217 and 1.3229 Break above opens the door to 1.3272–1.3282, then the 100-hour MA at 1.3290USDJPY: Sellers gaining traction after failing near 160.00 Broke below an upward sloping trendline and now back under the 100-hour MA at 159.63 Staying below targets the 200-hour MA at 159.19, with further downside toward 158.89 and 158.55Bottom line: Risk-on sentiment is being driven by headlines, but the technicals are now at key inflection points. The next move will depend on whether these levels hold—or break—with conviction. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

FX market still has not grasped full impact of energy shock - Goldman SachsEURUSD keeps the bearish bias intact amid the US-Iran war; Focus stays on negotiationsEuropean stocks keep the calm today but set to cap one of the worst months in recent yearsEurozone headline inflation picks up in March as energy prices surge on Middle East warECB's Muller: Current baseline projection could be already too optimisticThe Nasdaq bounces as Trump is reportedly open to end the war without Hormuz conditionGermany March unemployment change 0k vs 2k expectedThree Chinese ships confirmed to have passed through Strait of HormuzGold consolidates awaiting potential US-Iran deal; Trump's next move crucialFrance March preliminary CPI +1.7% vs +1.6% y/y expectedWhat are the main events for today?German import prices move up slightly in February, just before the US-Iran war impactUK March Nationwide house prices +0.9% vs -0.1% m/m expectedGermany February retail sales -0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expectedUK Q4 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q prelimFX option expiries for 31 March 10am New York cutRisk sentiment on the up but is it another false dawn?The highlight of the session was the Eurozone inflation data for March. The data missed estimates but still showed an annual increase to 2.5% vs 1.9% prior due to elevated energy prices. Core inflation hasn't been impacted yet as the annual rate fell to 2.3% vs 2.4% prior. This clearly shows that inflation conditions were pretty much perfect before the war started.The main story today though has been the WSJ report released in the APAC session saying that Trump would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. This has led to some cautious optimism in the markets as stocks rebounded, oil prices eased and the US dollar pulled back. Trump basically confirmed the report just a few moments ago as he said in a Truth Social post that countries affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure should get the oil themselves as the US won't be there to help anymore.It feels like a deal is really coming at this point and we could see the war ending before the April 6 deadline, so keep a close eye on the headlines and especially on Trump's Truth Social account. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJTTrump is basically confirming the WSJ report released in the APAC session saying that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition.He's clearly upset as Iran's resistance turned out to be stronger than expected and the damage being done to the US economy continues to increase. It looks like he really wants to move forward but Iran is dictating conditions now. He will have to swallow his pride this time around as the longer this war drags on, the worse the impact on the economy and markets will be.I feel like we are getting close to a deal... This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs is noting that even if the US-Iran conflict were to end soon, there will be lasting impact from the surge in energy prices on markets. And that is something that perhaps currency traders have not quite fully grasped just yet.For some context, the firm is arguing that the latest jump in energy prices will not be a temporary "blip". Instead, it is looking more and more akin to a "genuine physical disruption". And the risk of that becoming more embedded in markets will grow as the conflict drags on for longer.The firm has already raised its TTF gas price forecast for April to €55 per MWh, as Qatar's LNG production remains threatened. That is up from their previous forecast of €36 per MWh. And if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, they foresee Brent crude oil keeping at the $100 to $110 range before stabilising.Taking all that into consideration, Goldman Sachs warns that the FX market may be a tad complacent - especially risk trades."The dollar marked a fresh 2026 high last week as investors took stock of the burgeoning energy shock. While markets remain highly responsive to headlines, we are increasingly cognizant that the impact of higher energy prices over the last month (and for some time to come) will leave a more lasting imprint on FX markets even if the conflict comes to an end relatively soon.In short, the playbook for risk-on trades has shifted over the last month, which we do not think is fully reflected in market pricing or investor sentiment."That is a fairly big warning, especially if any end to the US-Iran conflict still does not result in passage through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal. And at this point, it is hard to imagine Iran wanting to give up such control and leverage. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.9%HICP +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y expectedPrior +1.1%The headline estimate is the highest since August 2024 as French inflation picks up amid higher energy prices as a result of the US-Iran conflict. The monthly reading shows that consumer prices were up 0.9%, the steepest jump since February 2024.The breakdown shows that food price inflation was seen at 1.8% (previously 2.0%) and services inflation at 1.7% (previously 1.6%). As such, core prices should keep thereabouts as in February with the latest spike here being largely energy-related. Of note, energy prices surged by 7.3% in March after exhibiting a 2.9% monthly decline in February.But over time if allowed to become more entrenched, higher energy prices will spill over to other aspects of the economy. That is a lesson that we are already familiar with from the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2021-22.If the ECB wants to respond next month, they might have good reason to do so. But if their key metric is to wait for the impact to show up on core prices, then perhaps we might see them put off from raising interest rates in April.That of course unless policymakers feel the need to be proactive about the situation, which typically isn't something you would associate with most central banks these days. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the main highlight will be the Eurozone inflation data. The Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs 1.9% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.4% vs 2.4% prior. Having said that, inflation is expected to increase substantially in March due to elevated energy prices, so it's not going to be a surprise at all. The ECB will likely look through the March inflation spike but might also lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if the US-Iran war and the supply disruptions continue.The market is pricing a 58% chance of a rate hike in April and 86% in June. The total tightening expected by year-end is 70 bps.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get the US Consumer Confidence and the US Job Openings data. The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 88.0 vs 91.2 prior. A lower than expected figure wouldn't be a surprise of course given that the war and higher energy prices are negatively impacting growth expectations while increasing inflation fears.The US Job Openings is expected at 6.890M vs 6.946M prior. The labour market has been clearly stabilising in the first part of the year as tariff and business uncertainty eased. The US-Iran war brought renewed uncertainty while also weighing heavily on the stock market. This could weaken the labour market in the short-term. Anyway, the Job Openings data is for February, so it's old news and will likely be ignored.Lastly, it goes without saying that the focus is solely on US-Iran headlines and the ongoing negotiations. WSJ reported tonight that Trump would be open to end the war without pushing for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be great news for the markets as the Iranians will likely reopen the Strait as soon as the US forces withdraw. But, we will need Trump to announce that to make it happen. He's certainly very uneasy right now with the stock market making new lows, much higher Treasury yields, triple digit oil prices and the Fed in "wait and see" mode. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS07:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Panetta (neutral - voter)07:30 GMT/03:30 ET - ECB's Muller (hawkish - voter)08:00 GMT/04:00 ET - ECB's Kazimir (hawkish - voter)13:10 GMT/09:10 ET - ECB's Sleijpen (neutral - voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (neutral - non voter)17:10 GMT/13:10 ET - Fed's Schmid (hawkish - non voter)19:00 GMT/15:00 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter)21:00 GMT/17:00 ET - Fed's Bowman (dovish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German import prices for the month of February showed a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month. But when benchmarked against the same month a year ago, import prices were seen down 2.3%. The latter figure is the same for January and also December last year.The main drag for the year-on-year decline in import prices had been energy prices. Compared to February 2025, energy prices were down nearly 21% when viewing the numbers for last month. So, that's the key factor in play. That as when you exclude energy prices from the equation, import prices were seen down just 0.2% compared to February last year.As we get into March data next month, expect the picture above to change drastically.Destatis already notes today that "the hostilities in Iran and the Middle East had no impact on the February import or export price results". But as energy prices soar in recent weeks, that is going to see a material jump in overall import prices in Germany.And over time, that will even spill over to impacting import prices for the likes of capital goods, intermediate goods, and consumer goods. So, there is that to keep in mind.That especially since the Middle East conflict doesn't seem to be finding much of a resolution yet. And with Iran still threatening key energy facilities across the region, that won't help in easing the upward pressure on natural gas prices in Europe.To make matters worse, this is also coming at a time when German consumption is also showing some signs of weakness. That comes after the unexpected decline in retail sales in February here.With higher energy prices set to hit in the months ahead, that will also weigh further on overall consumption and economic activity in Europe's largest economy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3%UK house prices unexpectedly rose in March, with the jump being quite a big one at that. The monthly increase in house prices is the most since December 2024.Typically, there is a bit of a "spring bounce" in the market. That being said, it could be a case of home buyers rushing to secure mortgage deals with the current rate amid fears of higher interest rates to come later on. That as the US-Iran conflict has significantly changed the central bank outlook and also the general trajectory of the global economy and inflation.So, it is arguably a mix of seasonal and psychological factors driving up prices in the past month.At the same time though, a negative hit to consumption and the overall economy is also a negative hit to the housing market outlook. As such, that is creating a bit of a muddy and messy picture at the moment. The monthly spike above is likely to be a one-off, especially as the US-Iran conflict is more likely to cloud the outlook rather than drive up demand conditions consistently in the months ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.9%; revised to -1.1%And once again, German retail sales underwhelms on expectations and this time it is being made to look worse than previous times. For one, it comes alongside a negative revision to the January figure. But more importantly, it paints a negative backdrop in the month before we even see the US-Iran conflict impact hit on prices, inflation, and the economy.Food store sales declined by 1.4% on the month while non-food store retailing saw a 0.7% increase in sales. The latter at least helps to offset slightly the negative drag on the overall report.This kind of backdrop is not quite what you'd like to see as price pressures have already been keeping more stubborn in Europe's largest economy. Now when you have to factor in the impact of higher energy prices, that will bite at consumption activity even more.As such, that will make for a tough outlook for the German economy in the months ahead. That especially as the manufacturing sector recovery is also at risk of being derailed amid a surge in input cost inflation, which will then weigh on demand.Stagflation risks might well creep back into the picture and that will be another key risk factor that the ECB has to be careful of. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.1%GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelimPrior +1.2%No changes to the initial estimates as the UK economy squeezes out marginal growth in the final quarter of last year. In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by an increase of 1.2% in production, while the construction sector fell by 2.1% and the services sector showed no growth.As a whole, UK GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3% annually in 2025. That follows from the growth estimate of 1.1% in 2024. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There are a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. The expiries are large in size and so could act as a bit of a ceiling to price action on any upside extensions. The dollar has been keeping firmer since last week already, with the pair poised for six straight days of declines. So, the trend does reaffirm that the downside pressure appears to be more persistent currently.Even as risk sentiment may be faring better today after the Wall St Journal report on Trump mulling over ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, it might prove to be a false dawn. As said before, nothing changes for markets until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. So, keep that in mind.The dollar is still holding steadier so far today, even as we see equities nudge a bit higher. So, it does show that traders are not getting too carried away just yet.Then, there is one for USD/CHF at the 0.7950 level. The pair has breached above its key daily moving averages at the end of last week. That is the first time it pushes above both key technical levels since April last year. That being said, the 0.8000 level is still keeping things in check.For now, buyers will stay poised in keeping above the 200-day moving average at 0.7943. The short-term momentum is also relying on the 100-hour moving average at 0.7953 currently. So, the expiries might just add another layer in helping buyers stay interested on any light pullbacks.And lastly, there is one for AUD/USD at the 0.6825 level. That rests close to the 100-day moving average at 0.6818 with the pair continuing to fall since last week. The drop this week sees a fresh two-month low for AUD/USD, reaffirming that sellers remain in control as the US-Iran conflict extends and higher oil prices remain.The expiries could pair up with the key technical level above in limiting the downside for today. However, things can quickly turn uglier if risk sentiment falters and we get a break of the key level.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Apart from that, do be reminded that month-end trading may also be a factor today. In that lieu:Dollar buying looks to be the flavour this month-endMonth-end flows point to dollar buying into the fix - BofA This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The big news as we get into the new day is this one here: Trump open to ending Iran war without reopening Strait of Hormuz - WSJThe report says that the US might look to wind down military activity in the Middle East. That after it accomplishes in degrading Iran's naval and missile capabilities. It might be one that is tough to imagine though, as it would see US president Trump still not get what he wants exactly. That being said, is it all an attempted diversion though?There's still talk of ground forces moving in over the past few days and that is something to be mindful of. Despite whatever reports, Trump will still need to frame this war in a way where he walks out as the victor - whatever that means.In this case, he can boast about taking Iran down a notch or two. But come what may, nothing changes for markets until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. I've said it already all throughout this war episode.The issue with effectively handing over control of the strait to Iran means that the US does not hold the ace card here. From an economic perspective, Iran is the one firmly in the driver's seat unless their ability to control the strait diminishes significantly.But as long as the threats are there and it remains in de facto closure, Iran has leverage to work with to push back against Trump. That especially as we know that this war has everything that Trump hates in markets.So S&P 500 futures may be up 0.9% on the day now with bond yields also coming off the boil this week. But as we've seen with previous incidences, this might just be a false dawn as it doesn't mean anything to global markets and major economies unless passage along the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal.Otherwise, this is going to be just another temporary respite. That before oil prices start to ramp higher again and we see that cascade to broader markets and bite at risk sentiment. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Global stocks see biggest selling in a year. Hedge funds ramp shorts (Goldman Sachs data)China factory activity hits 1-year high as PMIs return to expansionChina March official PMIs: Manufacturing 50.4 (exp 50) Non-manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.9)Tokyo inflation cools further but underlying price pressures remain intactPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9194 (vs. estimate at 6.9209)WSJ: Trump open to ending Iran war without reopening Strait of HormuzRBA March Minutes: Members agreed further tightening would likely be neededNZ business confidence and activity collapse. Inflation pressures remain elevated.Australia to scrap junior pay rates for 18–20-year-olds in major wage shiftJapan February retail sales drop below expected and prior, industrial output soft alsoJapan Tokyo Core CPI 1.7% y/y , below expected and prior both 1.8%Australia confidence hits record low and inflation expectations hit record highUK shop price inflation rises as Iran war lifts supply chain costsTanker hit in Dubai as missiles intercepted in Saudi Arabia, Gulf tensions remain elevatedPete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defence fund before Iran attack – FTRBA weighs in, to lower costs for businessFed’s Williams says energy outlook tied to markets, core inflation containedReports of 'unknown projectile' hitting a tanker in Persian Gulf near Hormuz, caused fireNetanyahu says Israel weakened Iran missile capabilities, destroyed factoriesHSBC says gold behaving like risk asset despite geopolitical tensions, but still supportedMore from Fed's Williams: Monetary policy is in the right placeStocks close mostly lower led by small cap stocksinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 30 Mar: Geopolitics talks lift then rattle marketsFed's Williams speaking: Tariffs and Iran war will push headline inflation higherIn brief:Iran-linked strike hits Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai port; fire reported Saudi Arabia intercepts 8 Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh Explosions reported in Isfahan amid ongoing US/Israel strikes Gulf states reportedly pushing US toward ground invasion Oil reverses gains after Trump signals willingness to end war without reopening Hormuz Tokyo CPI continues to cool; China PMIs return to expansion RBA minutes reinforce hawkish stance; inflation expectations hit record high Equities weaker in Asia; gold higher; FX largely rangeboundGeopolitical tensions escalated further, with multiple flashpoints across the Middle East. Iran struck a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker anchored in Dubai’s port, damaging the hull and igniting a fire onboard, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. At the same time, Saudi Arabia reported intercepting eight Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh, near key military infrastructure.Further signs of intensification came with large explosions reported in the Iranian city of Isfahan, following strikes attributed to Israel and/or the United States. Separately, reports citing Gulf diplomatic sources suggested the UAE, alongside Kuwait and Bahrain, is pushing for a US ground invasion of Iran, pointing to rising pressure for a broader escalation.Despite the worsening security backdrop, oil saw sharp two-way price action. Crude initially extended gains on the escalation and tanker strike, but later reversed and moved lower after reports that US President Trump is willing to end the conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate fears of a prolonged supply shock. Given the continuing US troop build up in the region this from trump would seem to be misdirection. On the data front, Tokyo inflation continued to cool across all key measures, with headline, core and core-core readings all slowing to multi-month or multi-year lows, reinforcing the view of near-term softness in Japanese price pressures. In contrast, China’s March PMIs surprised to the upside, with manufacturing returning to expansion and hitting a 12-month high, signalling a rebound in activity.Central bank developments remained in focus, with the RBA minutes confirming a hawkish tilt. While the Board was split on timing, members broadly agreed further tightening is likely, particularly as inflation risks rise. This was reinforced by an ANZ survey showing inflation expectations have surged to a record high.Across markets, gold moved higher amid the geopolitical backdrop, while Asian equities weakened, with the Kospi briefly entering bear market territory and Chinese indices posting declines. Major FX pairs traded in relatively tight ranges.Looking ahead, attention will turn to a scheduled US military briefing on Operation Epic Fury, which may provide further clarity on the trajectory of the conflict. Scheduled for 8am US Eastern time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Global equities saw largest net selling since April 2025 Marks sixth consecutive week of equity outflows Selling heavily skewed toward short positions (5.6:1 vs longs) North America and Europe led selling in dollar terms Tech, industrials and healthcare hardest hit Asia saw sharp divergence between EM and DM flows European short exposure hits 10-year highGlobal equity markets experienced their largest wave of net selling in nearly a year last week, as hedge funds extended a sustained run of outflows amid rising macro uncertainty, according to Goldman Sachs Prime Services data.The bank’s weekly positioning report showed that global equities recorded their biggest net selling since April 2025, marking the sixth consecutive week of outflows. The move was driven predominantly by short selling, which outpaced long buying by a ratio of 5.6 to 1, highlighting a decisive shift toward defensive and bearish positioning.Selling was broad-based across regions, with North America and Europe leading in dollar terms. In sectoral terms, seven of the eleven major sectors saw net selling, with information technology, industrials and healthcare experiencing the heaviest pressure. In contrast, consumer staples, energy and materials attracted relative buying interest, suggesting a rotation toward more defensive and commodity-linked exposures.Asia also saw notable selling, recording its largest percentage net outflow since April 2025. However, flows diverged sharply within the region. In emerging Asia, selling was driven by long liquidation, while in developed Asia it was driven by increased short positioning. The shift was particularly pronounced in Korea, where a large portion of year-to-date buying was unwound during March.European equities remained a focal point for bearish positioning, with hedge funds extending their selling streak to six consecutive weeks. Short exposure in European macro products has risen to 11% of total exposure, the highest level in a decade, with the UK, Ireland and Germany seeing the most significant selling.Despite the broad-based selling, allocations to Asia remain elevated, indicating that while sentiment has deteriorated, investors have not fully exited positions, leaving scope for further adjustment depending on how macro risks evolve. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.