Friday's close was 7.0063. Since then:China launches “Justice Mission 2025” drills simulating blockade around Taiwan (more info)China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30China flags more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to boost domestic demandChina industrial profits slump at fastest pace in 14 months as demand weakensAdded:the People's Bank of China injects 482.3bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operations, rate remains 1.4%after maturities today the net injections in 415bn yuan-The People’s Bank of China daily USD/CNY reference rate is a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Drills include blockade-style operations and joint assault scenariosExercises involve multi-directional air and naval approachesRhetoric framed as warning against Taiwan independenceMarkets watch for signs of escalation beyond scheduled drillsChina’s military has announced a new, larger-scale exercise around Taiwan (earlier info: China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30), intensifying pressure on the island and reinforcing concerns that recent drills are evolving beyond routine signalling into more explicit rehearsal scenarios.The People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command said it will begin a major exercise later this evening U.S. time, running through Tuesday, under the codename “Justice Mission 2025.” According to the command, the drills will focus on sea–air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, and the blockade of key ports and areas, language that closely aligns with scenarios designed to isolate Taiwan rather than conduct limited demonstrations.In a statement, an Eastern Theater Command spokesperson said the exercises will involve vessels and aircraft approaching Taiwan from multiple directions, with forces from different military services conducting joint assault operations. The drills are intended to test joint operational capabilities across domains, a central requirement for sustained high-intensity operations rather than symbolic manoeuvres.The spokesperson described the operation as a “stern warning” to Taiwan independence forces, calling it a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity. The emphasis on “all-dimensional deterrence outside the island chain” marks a notable escalation in rhetoric, suggesting an intent to project control not only around Taiwan but also across surrounding sea and air corridors.From a market perspective, the announcement reinforces a shift from episodic drills toward more complex, extended exercises that explicitly reference blockade-style tactics. While similar operations in the past have not disrupted trade flows, the framing raises sensitivity around shipping routes, insurance costs, and technology supply chains, particularly semiconductors, should such exercises become more frequent or prolonged.Asian markets have historically absorbed Taiwan-related military headlines with limited immediate repricing unless accompanied by operational spillover or political escalation. However, the duration of the exercise, its codename, and its explicit operational objectives may sustain a modest geopolitical risk premium, particularly for regional equities and currencies.For now, investors are likely to monitor whether the drills remain time-bound and contained, or whether follow-on operations are announced. A transition from scheduled exercises to rolling deployments would mark a more material shift in the regional risk environment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier:China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30China flags more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to boost domestic demandChina industrial profits slump at fastest pace in 14 months as demand weakens---The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:BoJ says policy rate remains far below neutral despite recent hikeSeveral members favour steady further rate increasesReal interest rates seen staying deeply negative even at 0.75%Yen weakness and bond yields partly blamed on overly low ratesStronger wage-price dynamics reinforce tightening caseFull text:Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on December 18 and 19, 2025The Bank of Japan’s December Summary of Opinions reinforced the message that Japan remains some distance from neutral monetary settings, even after last week’s landmark rate hike, while underscoring growing conviction among policymakers that further tightening will be required to avoid falling behind the curve.According to the Summary released by the Bank of Japan, one policy board member said there is still “quite some distance” before the policy rate reaches a neutral level, despite expectations that the real interest rate will remain deeply negative even after the policy rate is lifted to 0.75%. Several members argued that maintaining excessively accommodative conditions could distort resource allocation and weigh on sustainable growth over time.The discussion showed broad agreement that Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, with business sentiment holding up and wage growth expected to remain firm into next year. Policymakers highlighted that corporate profits have been sufficiently strong to support continued wage increases, reinforcing confidence that the mechanism of rising wages and prices is becoming entrenched. Underlying inflation, while likely to soften temporarily due to base effects, was still seen as moving steadily toward the 2% target.On policy execution, views diverged slightly on pace but not direction. One member said the Bank should raise rates at intervals of “around once every few months” for the time being, while others cautioned against committing to a fixed schedule. Instead, they stressed the need to scrutinise economic, price and financial developments at each meeting, particularly given uncertainty over overseas interest-rate cycles.A recurring theme was concern that Japan’s real policy rate remains the lowest in the world. Several members argued this was contributing to yen weakness and upward pressure on long-term yields, suggesting that timely rate adjustments could help curb future inflationary pressure and stabilise bond markets. At the same time, policymakers acknowledged the importance of carefully monitoring the impact of higher nominal rates on the economy and financial conditions.The Summary also highlighted a rare degree of alignment between fiscal and monetary policy. One member said Japan is in a phase where both can complement each other, echoing comments from government representatives who stressed close coordination to achieve sustainable growth and price stability.Overall, the Summary signals a Bank increasingly confident in Japan’s inflation outlook, more alert to the risks of policy inertia, and preparing markets for continued, albeit cautious, policy normalisation rather than a one-off adjustment.---BOJ dates for the new year ahead:---I've posted before on what this Summary is:The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.The summary also outlines the Policy Board members' views on the effectiveness of the BOJ's current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.In a few week's time we'll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ's current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ's views on monetary policy.The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:China announces major PLA drills around Taiwan on December 30Exercises include live-fire activities in surrounding waters and airspaceDrills run from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local timeMarkets view the move as a familiar geopolitical risk signalFocus remains on whether exercises are extended or escalatedChina announced it will conduct major military drills around Taiwan on December 30, underscoring persistent geopolitical tensions in the region and keeping markets alert to potential escalation risks, even as no immediate disruption to trade or shipping has been signalled.According to a statement, the People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command will carry out large-scale exercises from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time, covering designated waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. The drills will include live-fire activities, a detail that typically heightens investor sensitivity given the proximity to key shipping lanes and semiconductor supply chains.The Eastern Theater Command is responsible for military operations focused on Taiwan and the East China Sea, making its involvement closely watched by regional governments and financial markets alike. While Beijing regularly conducts exercises in the area, the inclusion of live firing often signals a firmer show of force, reinforcing strategic pressure without crossing into direct confrontation.For markets, the announcement revives a familiar risk backdrop rather than introducing a new shock. Asian equities and currencies have historically absorbed similar headlines with limited immediate impact unless drills are extended, expanded, or paired with explicit political messaging. However, traders remain sensitive to any developments that could disrupt regional stability or global supply chains, particularly those tied to advanced manufacturing and shipping.Taiwan remains central to global technology production, and any perceived increase in military risk tends to support defensive positioning across regional assets while underpinning safe-haven flows during periods of heightened uncertainty. At the same time, past episodes suggest that short-dated geopolitical premiums often fade quickly in the absence of follow-through.The timing, confined to a single trading day, suggests the drills are intended as a controlled demonstration rather than a sustained escalation. Nonetheless, the use of live fire keeps attention firmly on cross-strait dynamics and reinforces the need for markets to monitor official communications closely.Until further details emerge, investors are likely to treat the exercises as a reminder of underlying geopolitical risks rather than a catalyst for repricing, with attention turning to whether additional drills or political statements follow in coming days. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:China signals a more proactive fiscal stance for 2026Policy focus shifts toward consumption, innovation and social supportAuthorities aim to reduce reliance on exports and lift domestic confidenceGrowth target around 5% likely to be retainedFiscal policy expected to play a central stabilising roleChina’s fiscal stance is set to turn more forcefully supportive in 2026, with the government signalling a renewed push to revive domestic demand, accelerate technological innovation and strengthen the social safety net as the economy continues to grapple with weak confidence at home.In a statement released Sunday after a two-day policy meeting, the China Ministry of Finance said fiscal policy would be “more proactive” next year, reaffirming priorities that include boosting consumption, expanding investment and nurturing new sources of growth. The messaging comes as global trading partners continue to urge Beijing to rebalance away from export-led growth and address structural weaknesses in domestic demand.The ministry said it would actively expand investment in what it described as “new productive forces,” a phrase commonly used by policymakers to refer to advanced manufacturing, digital industries and emerging technologies. Supporting innovation and fostering new growth engines will be a core focus, alongside policies aimed at improving people’s overall development and economic resilience.Strengthening the social security system also featured prominently in the ministry’s agenda. Authorities pledged to improve access to healthcare and education, measures seen as crucial to easing household precautionary saving and encouraging consumers to spend more freely. China’s prolonged property downturn has weighed heavily on sentiment, reinforcing the need for policies that stabilise expectations and rebuild confidence among households.Beyond demand support, the ministry outlined broader structural goals for 2026, including deeper integration between urban and rural economies and further progress toward a greener growth model. These initiatives align with longer-term efforts to shift China’s economy toward more sustainable and balanced development, even as near-term growth pressures persist.Earlier this month, senior leaders reiterated their commitment to a “proactive” fiscal policy designed to stimulate domestic demand while maintaining relatively strong headline growth. The latest comments from the finance ministry reinforce that message, signalling that fiscal support will remain a cornerstone of China’s macro strategy into the year ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:European and US leaders report “good progress” in Ukraine peace discussionsTrump reiterates talks are close, but admits key territorial issues remainSecurity guarantees largely agreed, though not yet finalisedEurope stresses need for ironclad guarantees from day oneMarkets remain cautious about pricing a full peace dividend---Momentum around Ukraine peace talks appeared to build further over the weekend, adding fresh colour to President Donald Trump’s earlier claim that negotiations are in the “final stages,” though markets will remain cautious about declaring a true geopolitical inflection point.Following Trump’s comments after talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, European leaders confirmed a coordinated push to consolidate progress. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she had held a one-hour call with Trump, Zelenskyy and several European leaders to discuss the latest peace negotiations, describing the talks as constructive and pointing to “good progress.”Von der Leyen stressed that Europe is ready to continue working closely with Ukraine and the United States, while emphasising that any agreement must be underpinned by “ironclad” security guarantees from day one — language that mirrors Trump’s earlier promise of a “strong” security arrangement as part of any deal.In London, a Downing Street spokesperson confirmed that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also participated in the discussions, with leaders commending Trump for progress achieved so far. The coordinated messaging suggests growing alignment among Western partners, at least on process, even as key substantive issues remain unresolved.Trump himself struck an upbeat but qualified tone. He said negotiations were “getting a lot closer” following what he described as a “terrific” meeting with Zelenskyy, while acknowledging that one or two “thorny issues” remain — notably territorial questions, which he said were not yet resolved but could be settled. Trump suggested the outcome of the talks could become clearer within “a few weeks,” reinforcing the sense of urgency flagged in his earlier remarks.On security guarantees, Zelenskyy said U.S.–Ukraine assurances were “100% agreed,” while Trump characterised them as 95% settled — a small but telling divergence that highlights how close, yet incomplete, the talks remain. Trump also said Russia would be involved in Ukraine’s reconstruction and claimed Washington would find ways to overcome President Vladimir Putin’s resistance to a ceasefire.For markets, the narrative still resembles cautious optimism rather than a confirmed “peace dividend.” As highlighted in the earlier brief, the euro could benefit if investors begin to price in lower energy costs and a reduced geopolitical risk premium, while oil prices could remain under pressure. However, until concrete milestones — such as a scheduled in-person Trump-Putin meeting or a signed framework — emerge, investors are likely to treat the headlines as incremental progress rather than a decisive regime shift.----Early EUR/USD trade has the pair not a lot changed from late Friday circa 1.1765 and thereabouts. Do be aware that at this time of year many professional traders are away from the market, leaving wholesale participation light. Oil futures will reopen for the week at the top of the hour, 1800 US Eastern time. The same 'light participation' comments apply to Globex also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:Industrial profits fell 13.1% y/y in November, the steepest decline in over a yearWeak domestic demand and factory-gate deflation outweighed export resilienceCoal sector profits slumped sharply, dragging aggregate performanceAutos and high-tech manufacturing remained relative bright spotsMarkets continue to expect further policy support in 2026 to stabilise growthChina’s industrial sector suffered its sharpest profit contraction in more than a year in November, underscoring the strain from weak domestic demand even as exports showed relative resilience. Official data released over the weekend showed profits at industrial firms fell 13.1% year-on-year, accelerating sharply from a 5.5% decline in October and marking the steepest drop in 14 months.For the first eleven months of the year, industrial profits rose just 0.1%, slowing sharply from 1.9% growth recorded through Octobermajor drag from the coal mining and washing industry, where profits plunged more than 47%, reflecting falling prices and subdued domestic demandFigures from the National Bureau of Statistics point to continued pressure on corporate margins from persistent factory-gate deflation and sluggish household consumption. The deterioration came despite better-than-expected export performance, highlighting an uneven recovery increasingly reliant on external demand rather than domestic momentum.Sector performance was uneven. The automotive industry posted a 7.5% rise in profits, while high-tech manufacturing stood out with a 10.0% increase, signalling that policy-backed “new economy” segments continue to outperform traditional heavy industry.In a statement accompanying the data, NBS chief statistician Yu Weining said the profitability recovery still requires stronger foundations amid global uncertainty and ongoing structural adjustment. Analysts say the profit slump is consistent with broader cooling in activity late in the year:soft domestic demand remains the main dragthere could be some improvement in profitability if firms scale back excessive investment under Beijing’s push against industrial “involution”the export sector may be some relief. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Its an almost empty economic and event calendar in the Asia-Pacific timezone today. Well, it is holidays! Professional market traders won't really fire up again until next Monday, January 5. Nevertheless, we will be getting the Bank of Japan's 'Summary of Opinions' from the December meeting at 2350 GMTwhich is 1850 US Eastern time The December BoJ meeting was an interesting one. The Bank raised its short term cash rate in January of 2025 and then followed up, finally, at the December meeting with another rate hikes. From the day:Bank of Japan bookends the yearYen slides further after BOJ press conferenceMore recently, from Christmas Day!, we heard again from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda:BOJ’s Ueda sees wages and inflation reinforcing rate-hike caseThere seems little doubt the Bank is on a continuing rate hike path, the question we are all asking is "when is the next one?" Each communication from the BoJ will be scoured for clues. -The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a "Summary of Opinions" after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.Key points about the Summary:The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.The summary also outlines the Policy Board members' views on the effectiveness of the BOJ's current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.In a few week's time we'll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ's current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ's views on monetary policy.The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

We are all is trying to gauge if this is the "Peace Dividend" moment or just more of the usual negotiation bluster.Trump says they are in the "final stages" of talking and believes both Putin and Zelensky want a deal.Promises a "strong" security agreement is coming. He’s calling European leaders today and plans to call Putin immediately after his current meeting."I don't have a deadline," but the pace suggests he wants this settled soonThe "final stages" comment is the potentially a positive one for the euro. If the market starts to actually believe a ceasefire is imminent, watch for EUR/USD to catch a bid on the hope of lower energy costs and an end to the "war discount" on European growth. I would also expect even more downward pressure on oil prices.We might also see better risk appetite in general but given the timing of these headlines and that lack of real impacts on global growth, I'm not so sure. Defense companies could also weaken.The "Putin is very serious about peace" is a line we’ve heard before. The market will need to see more than just a phone call to start pricing in a structural shift in geopolitics. Keep an eye on the headlines—if an in-person meeting with Putin actually gets scheduled "soon," it could be.Headlines from Trump:Will speak to the European leadersWe're in the final stages of talkingThere are economic benefits to UkraineSays Putin is very serious about peaceCan call Europeans todaySays security agreement will be strongThere will be a security agreementI don't have deadlineCalling Putin after meetingWill have a great meeting todayWhen asked if he will meet Putin again soon, says 'depends'Think both Ukraine, Russian presidents want to make a deal This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

One of the big surprises of 2025 was OPEC+ abandoning efforts to prop up the price of oil. For years, OPEC had been a strong market backstop, managing supply to maintain a floor under crude. However, a combination of eroding market share, resilient non-OPEC production finally forced a change in strategy and perhaps a nudge from US President Trump led to an abrupt change of strategy.The shift began in the spring of 2025, when Saudi Arabia and its allies signaled they were no longer willing to shoulder the burden of production cuts while producers in the US, Guyana, and Brazil continued to hit record output levels. By mid-year, the 'price-over-volume' mantra was replaced by a more aggressive pursuit of market share, reminiscent of the 2014 price war.Internal tensions reached a breaking point as several member nations, notably Iraq and Kazakhstan, repeatedly overproduced their assigned quotas. Frustrated by the lack of discipline, the core leadership decided that a period of lower prices would serve as a 'reset' to force adherence to future agreements.OPEC may have also wanted to punish US shale players (the source of all supply growth in the past decade) for the 'drill, baby, drill' mantra.Today, WTI crude fell $1.61 to $56.74. That wipes out the gains on Monday/Tuesday and leaves oil flat on the week and it continues to sit close to five year lows.As we move toward 2026, the question is no longer when OPEC+ will cut again, but how long they can tolerate the fiscal pain of sub-$70 oil in their quest to reassert dominance over the global energy landscape. Ultimately, the cure for low prices is low prices. US shale producers cut drilling budgets and will continue to do so. Few are making money below $60 WTI as costs have far outstripped crude prices since covid.My guess is that buying crude will be one of the great trades of 2026 -- similar to how it was in late 2020. The question is 'when to buy?'. There is a school of argument that all the excess oil is already priced in and that global balances aren't as bad as they seem. I'll be sympathetic to that argument if we can get through the winter without a disorderly oil breakdown. So I believe the trade will be to buy a puke in the oil market below $40 or to wait until April when the seasonals begin to improve. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Mixed sector performances as tech and healthcare show gainsThe US stock market today presents a diverse picture, with sectors displaying varied performances, reflecting both investor optimism and cautious sentiment ingrained in today's trading dynamics.? Sector OverviewTechnology Sector: The technology sector shows promise with NVDA leading gains at 0.68%, highlighting positive investor sentiment. ORCL and PLTR also showcase mild additions of 0.39% and 0.63% respectively, reflecting ongoing strength in software infrastructure.Semiconductors: Displaying moderate mixed performances, with MU advancing by 0.46% and LRCX increasing by 0.62%. However, AVGO edges down by 0.21%, symbolizing sector-specific fluctuations.Consumer Electronics:AAPL increases by 0.23%, suggesting soft rally traction driven by recent product launches from major players.Financial Sector: Relatively stable, led by JPM and V with marginal gains of 0.05% and 0.19%. However, some instruments like BX are down by 0.23%, signifying pockets of apprehension.Communication Services: A lukewarm response as GOOGL remains nearly flat at 0.02%, while META sees slight losses of 0.15%.Healthcare:LLY posts a 0.19% increase, illustrating potential in drug manufacturing concerns amidst broader market interest.? Market Mood and TrendsOverall, today's market reflects a mixed sentiment, juxtaposing growth aspirations against emerging cautiousness. Successful performances in technology suggest continuing innovation-led resilience while subdued movements in communication services and financials indicate areas of hesitation due to market uncertainties.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors might consider:Increasing positions in the technology and semiconductor sectors due to evident bullish activity.Minding potential overvaluations or corrections in certain financial stocks, adjusting their exposure as necessary.Monitoring emerging trends in healthcare as pharmaceutical entities look promising amidst an evolutionary market landscape.Staying abreast of real-time data is crucial. For further insights, visit InvestingLive.com and explore our extensive market coverage to bolster your investment strategies amid evolving conditions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The TL;DR summary:Tokyo core CPI slowed to 2.3% y/y in Dec (vs. prev 2.8%, exp 2.5%), driven by lower energy and utility costs.Core-core CPI eased to 2.6% y/y (prev 2.8%), but remains above the BOJ’s 2% target, signalling persistent demand-side pressure.Headline CPI cooled to 2.0% y/y (prev 2.7%), marking the first clear deceleration since August.Data softens urgency, not direction, of BOJ policy; inflation remains consistent with gradual further tightening after last week’s hike to 0.75%.Market read-through: modest yen softness near term, JGB front-end consolidation, Nikkei supported by reduced immediate tightening risk.The screenshot above is via TradingEconomics. ---Tokyo inflation cooled more than expected in December, but remained comfortably above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, keeping the policy normalisation story intact even as near-term urgency eased.Core consumer prices in the capital, excluding fresh food, rose 2.3% y/y, slowing from 2.8% in November and undershooting market expectations of 2.5%. The deceleration was driven largely by lower utility and energy costs, alongside a moderation in food price gains.A closely watched “core-core” measure that strips out both fresh food and energy also softened, easing to 2.6% y/y from 2.8% previously, while headline CPI slowed to 2.0% from 2.7%. Together, the figures marked the first clear easing in Tokyo inflation momentum since August.Despite the slowdown, all three gauges remain at or above the BOJ’s inflation target, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures have become entrenched. Tokyo CPI is widely regarded as a leading indicator for nationwide trends, suggesting inflation is cooling gradually rather than collapsing.The data follows last week’s Bank of Japan decision to raise its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in roughly three decades. Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed that further tightening will follow if wages and prices evolve in line with the central bank’s outlook, while deliberately avoiding guidance on pace or terminal levels.Markets now see the December data as consistent with the BOJ’s baseline scenario: inflation easing as energy effects fade, but remaining sufficiently firm to justify additional rate hikes over time. Analysts continue to expect a gradual hiking cycle, with rates rising roughly every six months and a terminal level near 1.25%, assuming wage growth remains solid. BOJ policy implicationsThe softer-than-expected core print slightly reduces pressure for an imminent follow-up hike but does little to derail the broader tightening trajectory. With core inflation still above target and wage dynamics supportive, the BOJ is likely to proceed cautiously. A pause seems likely at the next meeting, on January 22–23, 2026. Market impact: yen, JGBs, Nikkei:Yen: The downside CPI surprise may cap near-term yen gains, especially if US yields remain elevated, but persistent above-target inflation limits scope for sustained depreciation.JGBs: Front-end yields may consolidate after the recent sell-off, though the medium-term bias remains toward higher yields as policy normalisation continues.Nikkei: Equities may welcome reduced near-term tightening pressure, particularly rate-sensitive sectors, while exporters remain sensitive to yen swings. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at the Meeting of Councillors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo in Thursday, December 25, 2025. The title of the speech, reflective of its content, was "Toward the Achievement of the Price Stability Target Accompanied by Wage Increases".Summary:Ueda said underlying inflation is steadily approaching 2%, supported by tight labour markets and changing wage-price behaviour. With real rates still very low, the BOJ is prepared to keep raising rates as economic conditions improve.-Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Japan’s underlying inflation is continuing to accelerate gradually and is steadily approaching the central bank’s 2% target, reinforcing the case for further interest-rate increases as economic conditions improve.Speaking to Japan’s business lobby Keidanren, Ueda said tight labour market conditions are likely to persist barring a major economic shock, putting sustained upward pressure on wages. He pointed to irreversible structural factors, including Japan’s declining working-age population, as key drivers of ongoing labour shortages.Ueda said companies are increasingly passing on higher labour and raw-material costs not only for food, but across a wider range of goods and services. This, he argued, is evidence that Japan is finally seeing a virtuous cycle take hold in which wages and prices rise together — a dynamic the Bank of Japan has long sought to establish.“Amid tightening labour market conditions, firms’ wage- and price-setting behaviour has changed significantly in recent years,” Ueda said, adding that achievement of the 2% inflation target, accompanied by wage growth, is now steadily approaching.With real interest rates still deeply negative, Ueda reiterated that the BOJ remains prepared to continue raising rates if its baseline outlook for the economy and prices is realised. He stressed that policy adjustments would be calibrated in line with economic and inflation developments rather than follow a preset path.Adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation, Ueda said, will allow the central bank to smoothly secure its inflation goal while supporting sustainable, long-term economic growth — signalling confidence that Japan’s shift away from ultra-easy policy is becoming increasingly durable. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Quick Summary:Success in Forex isn't about predicting the win; it's about defining where you are wrong. This guide covers the 3-step risk process: Defining (Technical levels), Limiting (Position sizing/proximity), and Accepting (Mental edge).A Text That Boosted My Ego (And Proved My Point)A few years ago, at a social gathering, I met someone through a mutual friend who traded Forex. Naturally, we got to talking shop. During the conversation, I hammered home a point I make to anyone who will listen: risk management is the most important aspect of trading.I didn't hear from her for a long time. But this week, I received a surprise text that gave my ego a bit of a boost. She wrote:"I wanted to acknowledge something you said to me… You told me that risk management was the most important aspect of trading. At the time, I probably didn’t even know what that meant. But I do now, and I have finally come to understand exactly what you were trying to tell me!"In my reply, I told her: "We—as a people—tend to prefer focusing on the reward in trading (and in life). It’s more positive, after all. But if you focus on the risk, you know exactly where you are wrong. If you can live with that, and you aren't 'risked out' (stopped out), you still get your rewards. Targeting where you are going is just the next step."Cracking the "Trader Code"If you follow my videos or my posts, you know I’m a stickler for defining risk. I might write something like this in a market update:"...The bias for the EURUSD is negative following the break of those two moving averages and remains so below the rising trend line. Traders would now NOT want to see the price moving back above those moving averages—at least in the short term. That would disappoint the sellers on the break to the downside and likely lead to more upside momentum."To a casual observer, that’s just technical analysis. But in "trader code," those words actually mean: "This is your risk-defining level RIGHT HERE. This is your stop-loss area."Traders need to know where they are wrong. They need to know the exact point where a negative bias turns positive, or where a positive bias turns sour. Technicals define those action areas.One of the core messages in my book, Attacking Currency Trends, is that successful trading starts with risk, not reward. Before you ever think about profit targets, you must be clear on what the risk is, how it is limited, and whether it is acceptable. This framework creates the discipline and emotional control needed in volatile FX markets where fear often drives bad decisions.The 3-Step Risk Process1. Defining Risk: Know Exactly Where You Are WrongRisk must be defined before entering a trade. In Attacking Currency Trends, I define risk technically—it is a specific price level that invalidates your trade idea.Risk is not a random dollar amount; it is a price level. On investinglive.com, I take the approach that readers want to know what the chart is telling them right now and why. That story always revolves around key technical levels: trend lines, moving averages, swing highs/lows, or Fibonacci retracements.If price breaches that level, the premise of the trade is wrong—not just in my eyes, but in the eyes of the "market." By defining risk at entry, you answer the most important question first: Where am I wrong? It takes discipline and humility to accept that defeat, but you need as much conviction in your exit point as you do in your entry.2. Limiting Risk: The Math of FearOnce risk is defined, you must strive to limit it. I tell traders: we must take risk to make money, but we should try to limit that risk as much as humanly possible.Logic over Emotion: Stops are placed at technical levels "followed by many," not where you "feel" like putting them.Proximity is Key: Trading as near to a risk-defining level as possible limits your downside and makes reaching profit objectives easier.Think about the math: If you risk 20 pips, you only need a 20-pip move to reach a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio. If you enter 50 pips away from your risk level, you need a massive 100-pip move just to reach a 2:1 target.Trading near your risk level is the ultimate "fear killer." If you don’t think fear impacts your trading, think again. Defining and limiting risk are the two mechanical steps that keep fear from driving the bus.3. Accepting Risk: The Mental EdgeDefining and limiting risk is mechanical. Accepting risk is psychological.You need to be able to tell yourself: "I have done the work to define my risk. I have limited my monetary exposure. I accept this risk in my core being." Once you do that, the fear disappears because:The risk is already "paid for" mentally the moment you click 'buy' or 'sell.'There is no "hoping," bargaining, or second-guessing.Losses are treated as business expenses, not personal failures.Why This Framework MattersTrends can only be "attacked" consistently when risk is under control. Traders who skip these steps might win occasionally, but they won’t survive the long game.Defined Risk creates clarity.Limited Risk preserves capital.Accepted Risk frees the mind to execute.The Bottom Line: When risk is defined, limited, and accepted, you put the probabilities on your side and give yourself the best chance to succeed over time.Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. Peace on Earth. Goodwill to all. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewIn today's market snapshot, the overall sentiment appears cautious with the technology sector exhibiting minor declines. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) has slipped by 0.64%, leading the sector's retreat. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL) marked a decrease of 0.38%.Conversely, the consumer cyclical sector offered a beacon of positivity, with Tesla (TSLA) gaining 0.76%. The consumer defensive sector, including stalwart Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST), also showed slight upward movements, up by 0.25% and 0.67% respectively.Market Mood and TrendsThe day's market mood reflects a mixed bag, heavily characterized by sector-specific dynamics rather than an overarching market trend. The modest downturn in tech, particularly among major players like Nvidia, highlights ongoing investor apprehension within the sector despite generally upbeat economic indicators.The rise in consumer cyclical stocks, however, suggests that investors are placing some confidence in economic resilience, positioning these stocks as potential hedges against tech volatility.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider diversifying their portfolios beyond the tech sector, which currently reflects vulnerability to broader economic narratives. The consistent performance of consumer defensive stocks indicates a safer harbor amidst market fluctuations.Given Tesla's strong performance, a closer look at the auto manufacturing segment might uncover further opportunities for growth. Meanwhile, vigilance is advised with regards to any evolving trends that might impact technology and semiconductor stocks adversely.For a strategic blend, consider increasing exposure to sectors showing resilience, such as consumer cyclical and consumer defensive industries, while trimming potential excess from tech holdings. As always, stay informed with InvestingLive.com for cutting-edge news and insights. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior week 224K revised to 224KThe 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 217,500Continuing claims 1.923M vs 1.900 estimate. Prior week 1.897M revised to 1.885MThe 4-week moving average was 1,893,750, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 3,000 from 1,902,000 to 1,899,000. Initial jobless claims track the weekly number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time and are one of the most timely indicators of U.S. labor-market health and overall economic momentum. Rising claims can signal increasing job losses and a slowing economy, while declining claims suggest that hiring is outpacing layoffs, pointing to underlying economic strength. Released every Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, the report is closely watched by economists and markets alike, with particular emphasis on the four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly volatility and provides a clearer view of underlying labor-market trends.The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 13 were in Rhode Island (+452), West Virginia (+325), Connecticut (+128), Mississippi (+57), and New Mexico (+51), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-7,242), New York (-5,720), Pennsylvania (-5,129), Minnesota (-4,361), and Georgia (-4,325). Yesterday, ADP released their weekly 4-week moving average of employment: ADP Pulse for the week ending December 6 comes in at +11.5K vs a revised +17.5K last weekThe ADP released their monthly report for November earlier in the month and it showed a net decline for the month at 32K. The report yesterday suggests a rebound in December. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I spoke about this issue back in November already here: Here's another reason why the AI trade might need a bit of rethinkingSo, is 2026 going to be the year where that narrative takes over markets and we all have to redefine what it means to be in the AI trade?Perhaps so. In reading the backdrop to the linked article above, it is clear that the real bottleneck and limitation to the development of AI isn't coding or silicon. It's all about electrical power and the physical capacity to access it.In repeating the quote from Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella:"The biggest issue we're now having is not a compute glut. It's power. You may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that you can't plug in - in fact, that is my problem today. It's not a supply issue of chips. It is actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into."As everyone is chasing data centers now, the lead time and wait time to get all of that done has increased dramatically. Some of the wait time has even stretched out to five to seven years. And let's be real, the tech companies involved don't have that kind of time to wait and find out.As such, some of them are pretty much forced to become their own utility providers. That is not to mention the likes of Nvidia also facing risks of supplying warehouse after warehouse full of chips that cannot be turned on because of capacity issues.If the first half of the AI rally since 2023 was all about chips and faster, more intelligent programming, 2026 might be the year it all gets redefined to focus on the more bland stuff that is used to make and power these machines. It might just be the year of electrical transformers and the power grid.And in focusing on that, firms like Vertiv, Schneider, Eaton, and perhaps even Siemens might steal more headlines in due time. If anything, keep an eye out on Schneider and Eaton as they have an edge in manufacturing their own circuit breakers.As for Vertiv, the firm saw its share price hit a low of $53.60 earlier in the year but has risen by over 200% now to $166.25. Talk about a surge.And amid all these names, let's not forget to point to the potential surge in copper prices that could take place if this narrative takes hold. In a world that's also involving electric vehicles, the AI industry now has to compete as well for the same raw materials in keeping up with the lightning speed progress. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prop Trading Challenges for Newbies: How to Spot Unfair Rules and Platform Risk Before You PayIf you are taking prop trading challenges, you are not only trading the market. You are also trading the prop firm’s rules, technology, and support quality.Two fresh examples show why this matters:A major futures prop firm faced trader backlash after repeated platform outages and trading anomalies that reportedly left some traders unable to open or close positions. The CEO publicly acknowledged the issue and referenced a January deadline to make things right.Another futures prop firm faced a wave of complaints after a reported retroactive rule change that affected things like trade holding time and profit split, with traders claiming trades that were valid under the old rules got penalized under the new ones. This is like the court telliing you, you are now charged for doing something legal yesterday, after changing the rule today. Talk about absurd, right?If you want the original reporting, here are the two Finance Magnates articles:Topstep Faces Prop Traders' Wrath due to Repeated Outages, CEO Sets January Deadline for a FixProp Firm FundingTicks Faces Massive Backlash after “Retroactive Rule Change”Below is a newbie-friendly guide to protect yourself from the 2 biggest non-market risks in prop trading: platform failures and rule surprises.First, a quick glossary (so the rest makes sense)Challenge / evaluation: The paid phase where you must hit profit targets while obeying risk rules.Funded account: The phase after passing the evaluation (some firms call it funded, some call it “performance” or “pro”).Profit split: How much of your profits you keep (example: 80% to trader, 20% to firm).Drawdown: The max loss allowed. This is usually what fails accounts, not the profit target.Scalping: Very short-term trading aiming for small moves, often held seconds to minutes.Minimum hold time: A rule that forces you to keep trades open at least X time (example: one minute). This directly impacts scalpers.The 2 hidden risks that can blow a challenge (even if your strategy is good)Risk 1: Platform outages and execution problemsIf a platform freezes, rejects orders, or disconnects at the wrong time, it can do real damage:you cannot enteryou cannot exityou cannot manage riskyour account can hit drawdown even if your trade idea was fineFinance Magnates reported that traders complained about being unable to open or close positions during outages on Topstep’s only platform, TopstepX, and some traders claimed accounts were blown due to those issues.Important detail for beginners: you can have the best setup in the world, but if you cannot execute, your edge does not matter.What to look for before buying a challenge:Does the firm rely on a single platform only?Do they have a public track record of incidents and how they handle them?When incidents happen, do they acknowledge quickly and clearly?Do they have a consistent policy for disputes tied to outages?In the Topstep story, Finance Magnates noted that Trustpilot scores fell and that the company responded to only a small portion of negative reviews, which matters because it is one proxy for how seriously a firm treats support and reputation.Risk 2: Rule changes, especially retroactive onesRules can change in any business. The key question is how they change, and whether they apply to accounts that were opened under earlier terms.Finance Magnates reported that FundingTicks faced backlash after reportedly changing rules retroactively, including a minimum one-minute hold time and a reduction in profit split. Why this is a big deal:If rules are applied retroactively, trades that were valid yesterday can be punished today.Your past trading can be re-judged under new constraints.Your expected payouts can change even if you did nothing “wrong” under the rules you agreed to.In that same report, Finance Magnates described traders claiming that accounts were breached or profits reduced if trades violated the current rules, even if those trades occurred before the change.For newbies, the simple takeaway is this:Your biggest risk is not always your strategy.Sometimes the risk is whether the goalposts move after you already started running.A simple “Prop Firm Due Diligence Checklist” for challenge takersUse this before you pay for any evaluation.A) Technology and uptime checksDo they offer more than one trading platform, or is it a single point of failure?Do they post incident updates (Discord, status page, email updates)?Do traders report frequent order issues, disconnects, or slippage spikes?Do they have a clear dispute process when platform issues occur?Finance Magnates reported trader complaints of not being able to open or close positions during outages in the Topstep situation.B) Rule stability checksDo they clearly state when new rules take effect?Do they explicitly say whether rules apply to existing accounts?Do they change core rules often (hold times, payout rules, profit split, withdrawal caps)?Do they provide a change log or versioning, or do you have to “discover” changes?In the FundingTicks case, the report listed multiple rule changes including the one-minute minimum hold period and a change in profit split compared with earlier terms. C) Incentives check (this matters more than most people think)Prop firms make money in different ways. Some earn mostly from:challenge feesresets and retriesdata, partnerships, and platform economicssuccessful traders who scaleHere is my personal note on how I look at it: I pay close attention to which firms actually provide a real path to trading on live accounts, or at least use some form of risk mirroring (where trades may be replicated or risk-managed beyond a purely simulated environment), versus firms that appear to keep traders in simulated environments indefinitely. I also watch which firms seem genuinely interested in developing real traders, not just collecting reset revenues.This does not require you to “know the inside story.” You can often infer a lot from:how transparent they are about account progressionhow consistent payouts are handledhow they treat traders during problemshow often rules shift in ways that reduce payoutsWhat to do if a platform outage happens during your challengeThis is practical and important.Screenshot and screen recordinclude timestampscapture the error, rejected orders, disconnect messages, and your open positionsExport your trade logsfills, order history, and account statementsSave the firm’s announcementsDiscord messages, status updates, emailsContact support immediatelykeep it factualinclude evidenceask what remedy exists if the outage is acknowledgedIn the Topstep report, Finance Magnates noted claims that the firm did not always acknowledge outages, which is exactly why documentation matters. What to do if rules change mid-challengeStop trading and reread the rules This is boring but smart. Most challenge failures come from breaking a rule by accident.Ask one direct question “Do the new rules apply to my existing account, including past trades?”Get the answer in writing Ticket response, email, or a saved official message.Decide whether to continue If the rule change destroys your style (example: a one-minute hold time when you scalp), it can be cheaper to pause than to fight the rules.Finance Magnates reported that the FundingTicks changes included a minimum one-minute hold time for scalpers, which can directly impact short-term trading styles. A friendly invitation if you want trade ideas and prop-friendly setupsIf you want a place to follow periodic trade ideas (including scalp-style ideas that can fit prop trading rules depending on the firm), you are welcome to join the @investingLiveStocks Telegram channel here: https://t.me/investingLiveStocksIt is a good way to stay in the loop and compare how different firms’ rules affect real-world execution.Final reminder for newbies (keep this mindset)Prop challenges are not only about being right on direction. They are about surviving a ruleset consistently.Your goal is to choose a firm where:the platform is reliable enough that you can manage riskthe rules are stable enough that you can build a repeatable processthe business model aligns with keeping good traders tradingAnd when drama hits the industry, treat it as a learning moment, not entertainment. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

I don't want to sound mean-spirited but there is a lesson here that's worth highlighting.If you've listened to Cathie Wood extensively -- and I certainly have -- then you know what I'm talking about. She's certainly not stupid but probably won't strike you as the kind of person that should be running what was once the world's largest actively-managed ETF and currently hold more than $7 billion.Last week's example is particularly cringe-worthy as her ARK Innovation ETF invests in technology and she's supposedly a thought-leader in what's coming next.In short, she fell for some badly-generated AI slop on her twitter page.That's some 'grandma-on-Facebook' level stuff.Now, whatever, it's a mistake. In the future we're all going to fall for AI slop because it's getting so good.But she followed that up by touting satellites with localized AI compute, a $1 million target for bitcoin and and a $2600 target for Tesla shares. It's the same thing she's been doing for years.The thing is, it worked, at least for awhile. She became a celebrity in the post-covid investing landscape as her fund rose 10x. The problem was that the fund was very small when it ran up and then money piled in and nearly everyone who bought in 2021-22 lost money.Her star dimmed in the latest tech boom when she completely whiffed on AI. She sold out of Nvidia early and hasn't been able to generate alpha in a bustling tech market, though the most-recent returns are better.Ok, so I promised a lesson here and it's a simple one. Sometimes it's better to be dumb.Overthinking is one of the classic pitfalls of traders. The #1 asset you can have is conviction and it's simply easier to maintain if you don't question things. Most of the money in the fund was made in Tesla and Elon Musk is the greatest salesman in history and that's all you ever really needed to know. Sure, repeat his talking points about whatever and go ahead and believe them.Now many people would look at his track record of predictions and draw some conclusions but the stock hit a record high this week. Just buy, close your eyes and believe.The thing is, it's just easier to believe when you can't tell reality from AI slop. We're in a weird world where questioning valuations and business models doesn't make you money.There's nothing new under the sun, in 1511, Erasmus said:“In a world of madmen, the sane man must appear mad.”Now one option is to kill your braincells:If you don't like the sound of that, the lesson here is that you need to find investments or strategies that you believe in and don't overcomplicate them. The money really is in the holding. Anyway, after all that meanness to Cathie Wood, I better do something nice or Santa will put me on the wrong list; so here are her top-10 holdings:TSLA - TESLA INCROKU - ROKU INCCRSP - CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AGCOIN - COINBASE GLOBAL INC -CLASS ASHOP - SHOPIFY INC - CLASS AHOOD - ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC - ATEM - TEMPUS AI INCPLTR - PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC-ARBLX - ROBLOX CORP -CLASS AAMD - ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.