The Canadian Dollar had been a victim of a rough stretch since the beginning of Trump's second term.Isolated by its historic neighbor amid US First policies, the Canadian Economy had been taking a sustained hit, leading to an accelerated cooling. The Land of Maple Syrup is known to be highly cyclical. Structurally, it tends to be dependent on commodity prices, global trade, and particularly on the US, which harshly pumped the brakes. Canadian GDP Growth since end 2020 – Courtesy of Trading Economics This phenomenon got accelerated by the historic Canadian mortgage structure: Variable loans are particularly affected when rates rise, compared to the typical 30-year fixed rates offered in the US.Hence, after the 2 years of ultra-low rates during COVID policies, the Bank of Canada hikes sent the hypersonic economy into a rock-hard wall.Add to this a general productivity restructuring, as massive waves of immigration saw another brutal stop; business confidence and investment stalled suddenly over the past few years – this shows up particularly in GDP per capita in Canada, which has remained broadly unchanged since 2012. Canadian GDP per Capita since 1985 – Courtesy of Macro Micro But there is light at the end of the tunnel. After years of questioning within Canada's natural Liberal party, Justin Trudeau stepped aside for Mark Carney, who has since cast doubt on some political issues.Since his ascension to power in March 2025, Carney and his party have brought three Conservatives into their ranks. Conservatives are going through their own crisis with internal trouble and separatist causes in Alberta. The Liberal Party is now three seats away from a majority in the House of Commons.But that's just politics. Even if the Canadian economy remains deeply strained from the latest rounds of US Policies, Carney has begun a new wave of international trade deals with India, China, and Europe – The rise of the "Middle power". Canada's manoeuvre options were thin, with the trilateral USMCA deal in limbo, but its capacities are slowly increasing.What is of traders' interest is how all of this relates to the Loonie. After reaching 16-year lows against the Euro, 22-year troughs against the USD, and a new nadir against the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar is forging a sharp turn, supported by higher petroleum and gold prices. Canadian Dollar and Oil Tight Correlation – Source: TradingView While its economy remains crippled by structural factors, Markets are forward-looking, and traders should do the same, so let's ask a simple question.Have we seen a long-term bottom in the Canadian Dollar? Let's dive into the weekly charts for USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, and EUR/CAD to see if we can get some clues from higher-timeframe technical analysis. Read More:Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?Markets Today: KOSPI surges 9.63% to lead Asian rally, Europe struggles, FTSE 100 eyes recoveryCanadian Dollar 3-Pair Weekly Timeframe AnalysisUSD/CAD Weekly Chart and Major Levels USD/CAD Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD has now officially broken its 2021 long-term uptrend – But such rarely signify immediate U-turns.The Major North American pair is currently ranging between 1.35 and 1.38, stabilized by its 200-Week Moving Average (1.36378).The consolidation isn't looking to be break on the immediate outlook, but keep these two breakout zones in mind:Breaking and closing on the week below 1.35 would hint at further downside in the pair.Rebounding a closing above its 50-Week MA (1.3830) could lead to a retest of 1.40 (lower odds)Explore our shorter timeframe analysis for USD/CAD right here.USD/CAD Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:1.38 Major Daily Resistance & 50-Week MA (1.3830)2026 highs 1.39288November 2025 Peak 1.40 to 1.4150December 2024 Consolidation 1.44 to 1.45Support Levels:200-Week MA 1.363782025 lows Support 1.35 to 1.36 (bearish below)September 2024 lows 1.344201.32 to 1.33 July 2023 Next SupportCAD/CHF Weekly Chart and Major Levels CAD/CHF Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Canadian Dollar has lost more than 25% of its value against the CHF since 2022 – But this trend looks to be reverting.Contrarily to the more rangebound USD/CAD, momentum is taking a significant shift towards a rebounding trend after a weekly double-bottom and supported by a weekly bullish divergence.The 50-Week MA will be the upcoming target for bulls who are attempting to grab control – Closing above it may easily relaunch the pair towards 0.60.CAD/CHF Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:Major Momentum Pivot 0.57 to 0.58 (50-Week MA 0.58133)0.59 mini-resistanceNext Key Resistance 0.60 to 0.60502024 Base Resistance 0.62 to 0.62702024 Major Resistance 0.64 to 0.64750 (200-Week MA)Support Levels:All-Time Lows Support 0.560.56013 All-Time LowsNext Psychological Support 0.55EUR/CAD Weekly Chart and Major Levels EUR/CAD Weekly Chart, March 5, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/CAD is also seeing a significant shift in its trend throughout this week's break lower.Now falling below its 50-Week Moving Average and crossing back below the significant 1.60 psychological level, sellers should remain in control all the way towards the 1.57 - 1.58 Major Support. Mean reversion there could assist a re-entry for further downside, particularly if prices retake the 1.59 level.Watch for selling acceleration on a weekly close below 1.57.EUR/CAD Higher timeframe levelsResistance Levels:2020 Resistance Zone – 1.59 to 1.6050-Week MA 1.6020Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.61 to 1.6150Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.63 to 1.6416-Year high 1.64703Support Levels:Upcoming support 1.57 to 1.58 ZoneMarch 2025 Support Zone 1.5475 to 1.55Pre-Breakout Support 1.5150 to 1.522024 Major Support 1.46 to 1.4750 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks absolutely smash previous days selling with huge rallies todaySince Trump's security pledge in the Middle East, Stocks have been explodingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Global Stock Indexes remain undefeated, and no war nor Capital Market trouble seems to be providing damage in their ever-resilient rise.No analyst or traders could have predicted such a resilient behavior from Investors amid the ongoing heavy War currently ongoing in the Middle East.US and Israeli armies are certainly striking rough blows to the Islamic regime's military capacities; Recent communication from both the US President and Secretary of War are reassuring Participants in the fact that the ongoing conflict has low probabilities of repeating mistakes seen in Iraq or Afghanistan: A prolonged and damaging war, without much to count for it.As expressed in our week-opening analysis, two of the most anxiety-prone elements in this war are how long it takes, and how heavy of an impact it has on Oil prices.For now, the length of the war is projected to be lasting around 4 to 5 weeks – this still has the potential to change, but current updates sound optimistic.On Oil, the commodity has somewhat stabilized in the $72 to $75 range (WTI). Yes, ships are scared to pass through Strait of Hormuz but the outlook isn't so grim right now with multiple reports of a damaged Iranian Navy.Any explosion in Oil prices or complication in operations has the potential to dampen mood significantly – Black Gold is certainly the most volatility-prone element of them both.Another element helping Equities is this morning's streak of positive US data, including a strong beat on US Services PMIs and ADP private employment. US Data this morning – MarketPulse Economic Calendar This also tags along with strong rebounds in Global Stock Indexes, also starkly rebounding today with the Nikkei closing up 2% and European Benchmarks up about the same.Let's spot if this move has the potential to last by diving into today’s mid-session charts and key trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) marks a double top despite Iran conflict – Below $5,000 soon?Trade Idea: DAX eyes bullish recovery after 6% slide and retest of psychological 24000 handleCan Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:24 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 4, 2026 Defensive Blue Chips, traditionals and Energy Stocks are now seeing rejection as Wall Street turns a new rush towards Tech. High-beta semiconductors and softwares are marking a decent recovery in the past week and leading Equities in their resilient run – They could indeed sustain less damage from any effect from a prolonged war; Actually, they would mostly benefit from high information flows and military need for technologies!Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is now breaking out of its descending channel but will face key hurdles at the 49,000 resistance zone and its 4H 50-period Moving Average just below (48,975).The morning rally is nothing short of impressive, but some profit-taking seems to be going through as traders look for quick-trades amid ongoing uncertainty – And that is certainly a way to protect trading accounts!Rejecting the 4H MA would mark a rough stall in the middle of the range, indicative of further potential downside ahead. Breaking back above however relaunches hopes for an all-time high run!Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA – 48,97549,000 to 49,250 Key psychological resistanceJanuary ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsNovember ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Morning SupportPsychological Pivot at 48,000August Support 47,500 to 47,65047,000 Next Main support45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is indeed flexing its muscles by rebounding back above the key 25,000 level and bulls are not letting the Index correct.Breaking the 200-period MA (25,170) would confirm the breakout and should hint at a swift run towards 25,500 – This stands as long as sentiment remains positive. Keep a close eye on the tech sector!Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels4H 200-period MA 25,170Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,170 (testing)25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistanceSupport LevelsMini-intraday Pivot 24,75024,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)February Support 24,150 to 24,300 – Morning lowsOctober - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 confirms its powerful range yet again, and will now face a strong test at the 6,900 Mid-Range resistance.Closing back above would point to a quick test of the 6,950 resistance.Rejecting it however could easily retest previous session's trough at 6,710.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900 (testing)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsMini-Pivot 6,820 to 6,8406,770 to 6,800 Psychological SupportPrevious day lows 6,710February lows 6,710 to 6,7306,680 to 6,700 Next Support6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold bulls have long been waiting for geopolitical troubles to justify the metal's record prices.However, markets often play rough games with high expectations, as we recently saw with Nvidia and Microsoft earnings. This aligns with the adage "Buy the rumor, sell the news."Similar profit-taking moves have previously occurred in silver, platinum, and palladium, so investors might have thought gold would be exempt, given its reputation as a true safe-haven.However, the recent unexpected market behavior in relation to geopolitical conflict is surprising. Despite ongoing tensions and heavy military activity in the Middle East, stocks actually rallied after Trump assured the protection of the Strait of Hormuz.Risk assets are decidedly rebounding, with cryptocurrencies surging to monthly highs as well as global Stock Markets; This proves how unusual these war flows have been.So, why are safe havens selling off?The US Department of Defense has certainly demonstrated its capabilities to rapidly damage key Iranian positions, alongside the Israeli Air Force.Investors fear a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, so the idea of shorter operations is providing a sense of relief, as reflected in the market.Investors also just received yet another report of US economic strength with another beat in Services PMI (56.1 vs 53.5 estimates), along with firming Private ADP Employment. Difficult to justify metal-boosting rate cuts with such solid data.Friday will provide more clarity on that aspect with the monthly NFP data for February; Expect this one to rock Market expectations again!Let’s conduct a multi-timeframe analysis of gold, as its recent price action has formed a double top. Will this signal the start of a real downtrend? Read More:Can Iran fully block the Strait of Hormuz?Chart alert: Risk-off persists on Strait of Hormuz fears, EUR/CHF eyeing 0.9010 key bearish breakdown levelTrump guarantees maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz: Markets U-turn on Navy escort pledgeGold (XAU/USD) Multi-timeframe analysisWeekly Chart Gold Weekly Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold is now facing high-importance hurdles ahead.After failing to regain its January $5,600 top despite the fundamental shift, sellers could now take the upper hand. This could particularly be the case when looking at the Weekly RSI forming a bearish divergence.However, a counter-argument could maintain demand for Gold – Remaining above its Key weekly pivot zone, particularly above $5,100, proves that the action can still remain in balance on the higher timeframe.Any break lower will also see streaks of support, with the most immediate major support a the December highs around $4,550.Gold Daily Chart Gold Daily Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold sends out a more gloomy picture on the Daily timeframe, with the two recent bearish candles located at relative spikes forming a double-top.While today's small rebound shows hesitancy, looking forward, as long as bulls can't manage to overtake the $5,379 highs from yesterday, technicals point to downside ahead.Crossing back below $5,100 would allow sellers to re-take control of the short-term action, hinting at a retest of the mid-Feb lows ($4,844).Breaking this level would then mark an official re-entry within the 2025 bull channel – $4,200 is its current lower bound (however it remains far from now).Levels of interest for Gold trading: Support Levels:$5,100 Major Pivot turned support (Short-term: sellers in control below – Testing)$4,850 to $4,900 Key Support (Mid-Feb Lows)Pivotal Support and December record $4,400 to $4,500 (Bearish below)Channel lows $4,200Resistance Levels:$5,250 Pivot Zone (+/- $50)$5,400 Wartime ResistanceCurrent All-time Highs Resistance – $5,500 to $5,600Gold 4H Chart Gold 4H Chart, March 4, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold is now rejecting its intraday key 50-period moving average acting as resistance.A key test of the upward trendline will provide a last chance for bulls to re-take the short-term hand, before the double top materializes into a more consequential correction.Watch for a break and 4H close below $5,100.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

DAX is attempting a recovery following a 6% drop.The global energy shock is fueling stagflation anxiety, notably causing a record 12% plummet in the South Korean KOSPI index.Market performance is mixed: Technology and defense stocks are providing upward momentum, while disappointing earnings from Adidas and Bayer are weighing on the index.The technical outlook is bullish, with buyers returning to test the 24000 psychological level, hinting at a potential move to the upside.Read More: Is Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) second $70k rejection a “buy the dip” opportunity?The DAX index is attempting a recovery today following two sessions of aggressive selling driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East.Market sentiment saw a slight boost after President Trump suggested the US Navy might escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic chokepoint currently remains at a standstill, causing significant disruptions to global energy flows. Despite the diplomatic overtures, oil prices have continued their ascent climbing 14.5% so far this week, while European natural gas prices have surged a staggering 60% over the last two days following the shutdown of Qatari LNG facilities and the closure of the Strait.The economic impact of these spikes is being felt acutely across energy-dependent regions.While the DAX shed 6% over the last two sessions, the South Korean Kospi plummeted 12% overnight, reflecting a growing global anxiety over potential stagflation. This is the KOSPI benchmarks largest drop on record as South Korea is heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil.Over two days the tech-heavy index has lost more than 18% of its value while the currency KRW has slumped to a 17-year low.The trajectory of the market now hinges on the duration of the conflict and whether energy prices ease. A prolonged standoff increases the risk of a sustained energy shock, which could cement the stagflationary pressures currently being priced in by traders.According to sources, Qatar would need 2 weeks to restart gas liquefaction after a full shutdown. Once restarted, Qatar would need at least another 2 weeks to reach full capacity, which could lead to a temporary shock in prices if the conflict was to reach a swift conclusion.Performance within the DAX remains a mixed bag of sector-specific reactions and corporate earnings.Technology stocks are providing some upward momentum, with Infineon Technologies rising 3.7%, while defense stocks are seeing a modest recovery.However, individual earnings reports are weighing on the index; Adidas shares dropped 7% on disappointing results (now down 5%), and Bayer fell 4.76% after providing a weak 2026 profit outlook that overshadowed a fourth-quarter earnings beat. Source: LSEG Trade Idea - Potential DAX Buy Opportunity The DAX selloff saw the index drop below the psychological 24000 handle for the first time since December 2025.The foray has proved short-lived thus far with buyers returning as the index tested the descending channel it broke out of in December 2025.On the daily chart, the current daily candle is eyeing a close back above 24000 while at the same time printing an inside bar hammer candle.This would hint at a move to the upside in the days ahead.DAX Index Daily Chart, March 4, 2026 Source: TradingView For those looking to get involved, we drop down to a one-hour chart.Price is caught between the 20 and 50-day MAs with a retest of the 24000 handle presenting the best risk to reward opportunity for would be bulls.If such a pullback does not materialize, traders may wait for a break of the 50-Day MA at 24210 and look for an opportunity to get involved with targets resting at the 100-day MA around 24700 and potentially 25000 as well.DAX Index, One-Hour Chart, March 4, 2026 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) plunged 5%, surprisingly ignoring the escalating safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict.The selloff is primarily driven by rising oil prices sparking inflation fears, which led to reduced Fed rate cut expectations and a surging US Dollar.The technical outlook focuses on the $5000/oz retest, will bulls return or not?Read More: Geopolitics and Crude: Why WTI pulled back despite escalating Middle East risksThe price of gold has fallen 5% on Tuesday as a combination of profit taking and a US Dollar surge appear to be weighing on the precious metal. This is a surprise given the tension in the Middle East where regional escalation appears to be coming to fruition.Middle East regional escalation The Middle East has seen a sharp escalation in conflict following a series of coordinated strikes and diplomatic withdrawals.On Tuesday, explosions rocked Tehran and Beirut, while Iranian drones targeted the US embassy in Saudi Arabia, resulting in a fire and minor structural damage. This follows a similar drone strike on the US mission in Kuwait, prompting Washington to shutter both embassies and order the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and their families across the region.As the violence intensifies, the strategic scope of the war has become clearer. Despite recent ambiguous statements from President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the conflict's duration, sources indicate that Israel’s campaign is moving faster than its initial two-week timeline. The primary objective is reportedly the removal of Iran’s clerical leadership, a goal for which there is currently no firm deadline.The theater of war has also expanded into Lebanon, where Hezbollah forces have engaged Israel, triggering retaliatory air strikes and the reinforcement of Israeli ground positions in the south. In Beirut, heavy smoke and constant explosions have come to define the skyline, with local authorities reporting dozens of casualties as the fighting spreads.The conflict appears to be escalating which in theory should benefit haven demand and thus Gold prices. However, today's selloff in Gold has market participants in a state of confusion.This begs the question, what is driving the selloff in Gold?Rate cut expectations pared back, US dollar rises The simple answer may lie in inflationary concerns due to the rise in Oil prices.WTI is up around 14% since the start of the week and this has led to concerns about the impact this may have on inflation down the road. Markets are paying attention to this and it is having an impact on rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve.Just last week markets were pricing in around 60bps of rate cuts through December 2026, that number has now dropped to around 46bps of cuts, according to the latest LSEG data. The number had dropped to around the 40bps mark earlier in the day. Source: LSEG Mixed messaging from Fed officials today added to the concerns around inflation. Fed policymaker Schmid reiterated his concerns that demand is outpacing supply and that there is no room for complacency. However, Fed policymaker Williams struck a more upbeat tone, stating that recent inflation data has been reassuring.It appears for now, inflationary concerns are driving a lot of volatility.This coupled with the US dollar rising significantly as well appears to be weighing on the precious metal. The dollar appears to be the winner from safe haven flows at this stage as the Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 6 week highs and approaching the psychological 100.00 level.Another factor to consider is potential profit taking. After the surge in Gold prices after the weekend and at the start of the week, market participants could be locking in gains. This would lead to a drop off in the price of Gold as well and could be contributing to today's 5% decline.Where to next? Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, looking at the H4 chart for gold below and a $5000/oz retest has taken place.This key psychological barrier needs to hold if bulls are to return and recover some of today's losses.We have seen a bounce already with gold trading at $5095/oz at the time of writing. This has brought the price of the precious metal back to test the 100-day MA which rests around the $5090/oz mark.A move beyond this may find resistance at the previous swing low around the $5128/oz handle before the 50-day MA at $5179/oz comes into focus.A move lower here will first need to record a four-hour candle close below the $5000/oz handle before a retest of support at $4965/oz and the swing low from February 17,, which rests around the $4850/oz handle.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 3, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Dropping down to a 15-minute chart given how quickly price is moving at the moment may provide further insight.Looking at the chart below, I have drawn in two descending trendlines, an outer and inner one.These trendlines may be used in conjunction with your own analysis to track a potential rebound and find trading opportunities.Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart, March 3, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar is catching up to its safe-haven status as the Middle East conflict heats upFears of a prolonged intervention and high impact on Oil prices are boosting the Petrodollar statusDollar Index Technical Analysis ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls Today's Market action is sending out a warning to global Markets – Despite a relatively smooth opening on Monday, things will not be so simple for what could be the most significant conflict in a few decades.The reassurance of a "4-week" only intervention could prove to be a long shot, as Basij and IRGC forces begin to turn their operations away from their traditional military bases towards civilian infrastructures such as schools, mosques, and more.Strikes towards the Iranian military command are continuous, and this is proving to be quite a significant turn as Iranian retaliations keep striking Gulf countries with drones and ballistic missiles.The Market could be pricing in the broader conflict ahead, as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned, and this is reflected in the broad risk aversion and the rise in global Oil prices – Global Stock Markets are down between 2% and 7%!Brent is now trading well above its 12-Day War $77 spike – currently around $83.WTI is on its way towards its June peak ($78.43) and stands close to 2% below that level. The morning spike is now somewhat easing, but tensions are certainly gripping participants and will do so for the time ahead.Oil is the product to watch to track Market sentiment. Extending above June-War highs implies further detriment in sentiment ahead. If sellers can bring prices back below $73.50, risk sentiment should somewhat recover. US (WTI) Oil Daily Chart. March 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now turning back to the Petrodollar case – As pointed out in this excellent piece, Fuel prices exploding around the world would make the case for swift dollar demand.Importers will face a greater need for dollars to sustain demand, which not only hurts major importers' currencies but could also create a dollar shortage as participants remain heavily short the reserve currency.For now, Oil is up "only" 15% from its Friday close. Catastrophic scenarios point to $100 a barrel if the conflict stays heated for long. The longer the war, the more damaging it would be to economies and inflation, and the higher the dollar could shoot.We’ll explore this effect through an in-depth technical analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY). Discover:Wartime is back in Markets – North American Session Market Wrap for March 2A look around Markets as Iran operations begin – Market reactionsOil prices jump on mid-east attacks, safe-haven demand surges & week aheadDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. March 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar has spiked significantly since its 98.00 week-long consolidation, as traders were already pricing in an immediate intervention.As it materialized, the Greenback broke out even further, extending its gains towards 2026 highs against all major currencies.It now faces a key test at the 99.50 Resistance zone – Let's look at its effect on the 1H timeframe after marking a few key levels for action.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. March 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView Watch out for some short-term mean reversion in the Dollar – Looking at the swift flows, it could be difficult to expect a real reversion lower – The 99.00 Level could be a decent pullback level to get long the dollar.CHF/USD, EUR/USD or AUD/USD could be interesting conditionally to them retreating – Watch out to not put all your eggs in the same basket!Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance (immediate rejection, short-term pullback)99.68 Morning highs – breaching this on high volume should see heavy continuation!100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs100.376 November highs101.00 Next key resistanceSupport Levels99.00 Key psychological Support98.00 Key Mid-Range Support and 50-MA 98.002025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (mini-range lows, 4H 50-MA)Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.001H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. March 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView The 1H timeframe shows a slightly over-extended move higher, implying a short-term pullback ahead.The 99.00 Level could prove a sweet spot to catch up on the trend.Breaking below the trendline is still possible, but a real reversal lower would only be confirmed below 98.80!Breaking back above the 99.68 morning highs would point to a continued breakout.Look at November highs (100.368) in that scenario.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks gapped lower at the open but have bounced higher significantly sinceInvestor sentiment remains elevated despite the new beginning of a rough conflict in the Middle EastExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock Markets have eased significantly during the Asian and European sessions, but it seems that US Markets are remaining unfazed.Gapping lower by 1.50% across all benchmarks, Stocks are now rallying back, now close to unchanged, and essentially filling the gaps.J.P. Morgan issued a buy-the-dips recommendation, which undoubtedly helped risk sentiment ease, but US stocks remain at key inflection points. What is surprising is also seeing US Treasuries sell off (10Y Yield back above 4.00%) despite ongoing intense exchanges in the Middle East – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are also exploding higher as we speak. Markets were trading at the lows of their ranges, which could also have helped the rebound.I invite you to check out Morning reactions and a detailed resume of the events right here.Keep a close eye on sentiment throughout the week, as economic damage from the war is still far from reflected. The Strait of Hormuz and a potential closure there could be hurting sentiment more consistently throughout the week. Let's explore the key levels for weekly action by diving into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:A look around Markets as Iran operations begin – Market reactionsMarkets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreatsSafe-haven demand intensifies as US-Iran conflict extends - Gold, WTI Crude, Nikkei 225, AUD/USD short-term outlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – March 2, 2026 Despite the rebound around US Benchmarks, individual equities are sending a mixed picture. Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Energy stocks are dominating the action.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones rebounded significantly from its 48,103 overnight futures lows, and is now facing a significant test at its Gap-fill level and 50-Hour MA (48,925 – Morning Highs).Closing above on the session would imply a buy-the-dip flows over War flows – Odds for this could be compromised if news worsen.Rejecting the 50-Hour MA (immediate test) could lead to further downside in US Indexes – Doing so could see a test of the overnight lows.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsKey 1H MA 48,925 – Current rejection & Morning highs200-Hour MA 49,270January ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,70049,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Range Highs)Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsPast week Support 48,660 to 48,740 (Friday lows)November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Minor SupportOvernight futures lows 48,103Key Support from 47,500 to 48,000 (Next main Support)45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq breached back above its 50-Hour MA but is less responsive than the DJIA to the indicator.The level to watch is being tested as we speak: 25,000.Closing above on the session would see further dip-buying, like in the DJIA.Rejecting here however could see a quick test of the 24,441 overnight lows.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (Immediate rejection!)25,400 to 25,500 Intraday resistanceAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMini-intraday support 24,744 (bearish below)24,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)24,441 Overnight lowsFebruary Support 24,150 to 24,200October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 1H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is facing almost similar conditions as the Dow. After running higher in the morning session, bulls will be facing a key test at the 200-Hour MA (6,874).Trading and closing above would point to 7,000.Below would point to a test of the 6,760 overnight lows.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMorning highs and 200-Hour MA (6,874)Key Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH minor Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsMini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportOvernight lows 6,760February lows 6,730 (Higher timeframe range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This weekend marked the beginning of a foreseen but still shocking operation in Iran as US and Israeli forces aim to topple the Islamic Regime.Killing the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first strikes, the battle is still anticipated to last around four weeks, as declared by President Trump and Head of the Department of War Pete Hegseth. Strikes on IRGC facilities and missile launchers are numerous and continuous.At the same time, the Islamic regime retaliates against US positions across the Middle East, but has also sent missiles and drones against several Arab nations.This includes the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Oman.Hezbollah, a terrorist organization affiliated with the current Iranian regime, has also joined the conflict by sending drones and ballistic missiles not only to Israel but also to Cyprus, where UK military bases are located. The organization's leader has been reported to have been eliminated during the Middle Eastern afternoon.A few themes concerning Markets: a prolonged war affecting risk sentiment amid already chaotic Market conditions, and what happens to the Strait of Hormuz.This Strait, located between the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, just below Iran, is where more than 90% of Oil flows to Asia. Its closure during the 1970s preceded a global Oil supply crisis, leading to severe price rises and disruptions to international trade; hence, anything happening there could have a severe impact.Communications and announcements are to be closely tracked to monitor how the conflict advances. The longer it lasts, the more erratic things can become.Check out our freshly released Podcast episode to learn more.Let's dive into the major movers of this tense weekly open. Discover: Markets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreats Financial Markets are getting rocked from the latest developments, but reactions have remained relatively contained.Energy Markets WTI (US) Oil prices have gapped up to $73.50 before easing to the current ~$71.50 region, still higher by 6.50% relative to Friday's close. All energy products are experiencing similar rises. WTI (US) Oil CFD Daily Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Brent (UK) prices have however spiked even higher, gapping close to 10% to $80.00 and also somewhat retraced back to its opening price. Energy Futures Daily Performance, March 2, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Metals Markets Metal Futures Daily Performance, March 2, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Metals have offered quite another, less predictable dynamic during the overnight/morning session.Gold is running higher while others are easing slightly, with Platinum down 2.50% and Silver breaching back below $90 per oz. Gold CFD 4H Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView I invite you to check out our Gold short-term analysis right here. More will be coming throughout the week.US Dollar Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is also seeing a significant rise in this morning's action as safe-haven flows race back towards the Reserve currency.The petrodollar trade quickly returns when Middle East conflicts rise. It is a first however in recent times, as the Greenback had been getting sold off on recent risk-aversion.It's consolidation near 98.00 (Dollar Index) had foreshadowed a rally on such the occurrence. (I hope some observed our recent US Dollar piece!)Watch the reactions as it nears a key resistance (98.80 to 99.00) and been retracing slightly since.If it goes back to 98.00, dip-buying would not be surprising.Risk-assets: Stock Markets and Cryptos Stock Market Futures Daily Performance, March 2, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz European and Global indexes have corrected roughly in the risk-off sentiment. On the other hand, while US benchmarks fell during the futures session, dip-buying seems to be ongoing. Dow Jones CFD 30M Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView A detailed look into US Stock Markets will be coming at the top of the hour. Crypto Futures Daily Performance, March 2, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Cryptos corrected over the weekend, moving lower initially on the news, but are now bouncing sharply higherBitcoin remains above its 200-Day Moving Average near $69,000. Bitcoin CFD 4H Chart, March 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades and keep track of the evolution of the conflict ahead!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (02/03/2026): We join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart in the latest Market Insights episode, where we discuss the latest financial market headlines, including oil pricing following strikes in the Middle East. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Geopolitical shock fuels haven flows: Escalating US-Iran conflict and fears over a Strait of Hormuz disruption triggered a “haven first” reaction—gold surged, WTI spiked above $70, US equities and Asian indices fell, while the US dollar firmed.Gold and oil in bullish breakouts: Gold maintains a short-term uptrend above $5,238 with scope toward $5,448/$5,602, while WTI crude has broken above major 30-month resistance at $70, opening upside toward $74.70–$78.10 unless $67.80 gives way.Equities pressured, AUD resilient: The Nikkei 225 risks a deeper correction below 57,140, while AUD/USD holds above 0.7030/0.7020 support, supported by strong commodities, with 0.7140 as the upside trigger. The US, in collaboration with Israel, has launched an attack on Iran on Saturday, 28 February 2026, despite an attempt by Oman mediators to extend “diplomacy measures” for another round of negotiation talks over Iran’s nuclear stockpile.The past 48 hours have seen a flurry of attacks from both sides, with Iran’s retaliation bombardments on US military assets spread across the Middle East in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Oman.The latest US-Iran conflict is likely not going to be a “symbolic attack” akin to last summer, as US President Trump said the US military will continue bombing Iran until his objectives are achieved, despite the confirmed death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.In today’s Asia session, market participants are generally adopting the strategy of “haven first, ask questions later” amid heightened concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a key chokepoint for global oil flows, which can trigger an upward spiral in oil prices.Here are the intraday performances of key asset classes at the time of writing:S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down around 0.9%Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 1.5%Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down 1.4%West Texas crude oil up 6% to around $71.40 per barrelGold (XAU/USD) up 1.6% to around $5,360 per ozUS Dollar Index up 0.3%Japanese yen down 0.5% to 156.80 per dollarSwiss franc almost unchanged at 0.7690 per dollarBitcoin (BTC/USD) up 1.7% to around 66,880Let’s look at the short-term technical outlook and key levels on Gold (XAU/USD), WTI crude oil, Nikkei 225, and AUD/USDGold (XAU/USD) – Short-term uptrend remains intact above $5,238 Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) continue to oscillate within a minor ascending channel since the 6 February 2026 low of $4,655. Watch the $5,238 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential extension for the next intermediate resistance to come in at $5,448 before a retest at the current all-time high of $5,602 printed on 29 January 2026 (see Fig. 1).However, a break and an hourly close below $5,238 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective pull-back to retest the next intermediate support zone at $5,111/5,046 (also the 20-day moving average).WTI Oil – Bullish breakout above 30-month major resistance at $70/barrel Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 2 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) has gapped up by 10% on Monday’s Asian opening hour to print an 8-month intraday high of $73.50/barrel before it pared back gains to around 6% to trade at $71.30.Interestingly, today’s massive rally has triggered a major bullish breakout above its former 30-month major descending resistance from the 28 September 2023 high, which now turns into pull-back support at around $70.00/69.26 (see Fig. 2).Watch the $67.80 key short-term pivotal support for the next intermediate resistances to come in at $74.70/75.55 and $78.10 (Fibonacci extension).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below $67.80 negates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective pull-back to expose the next intermediate supports at $64.80 and $63.10/62.05 (also the area of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages).Nikkei 225 – At risk of shaping a minor corrective decline, breaking below 57,140 Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 2 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has gapped down by 2.3% in today’s Asian opening hour and shaped a bearish reaction at the time of writing right at the former minor ascending support from the 6 February 2026 low, now turns pull-back resistance at around 58,125 (see Fig. 3).Watch the 58,808 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 57,140 (also the 20-day moving average) may trigger a further minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 56,096 and 54,818.On the flip side, a clearance above 58,808 invalidates the bearish tone to see a retest at the all-time high area of 59,884/60,075 in the first step.AUD/USD – Holding above the 20-day moving average and 0.7035/7020 support Fig. 4: AUD/USD minor trend as of 2 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The AUD/USD has managed to trim its intraday loss of 1% to 0.4% at the time of writing, supported by bullish commodities.The intraday recovery seen in the AUD/USD has occurred right after the third retest on its 20-day moving average (see Fig. 4).Watch the 0.7030/7020 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 0.7140 may trigger another round of bullish impulsive up move sequences for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.7175 and 0.7210 (also a Fibonacci extension).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 0.7020 invalidates the bullish tone for an extension of the minor corrective decline to expose the next supports at 0.6980 and 0.6905/6890 (also the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks got it harsh at the open after 1% gaps lower across the boardDip-buyers are coming back heavily, leading to a strong rebound towards mid-dayExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 ahead of Month-End trading Another crazy month for Markets is ending today, and investors are sighing after an impressive gap lower.The reasoning behind the risk-off flows was that US Embassies in the Middle East had called for their staff to prepare security measures over the weekend, leading to a spike in Oil to $68 and a rough pre-open session.Dow Jones was leading Indexes lower, dipping to -1.78% before rebounding.Benchmarks are now attempting to erase the entire overnight drop; however, this may prove difficult as traders prepare for a volatile session close, pulled on both sides by weekend risk and month-end flow volatility.The rebound is strong, with recent Chicago PMI data (57.7 vs 52.8 exp) confirming that US data is far from weakening; quite the opposite, in fact.Produce Prices have risen to 8-month highs amid elevated activity, further pressuring prices. This could prevent further rate cuts and hurt sentiment in the near term.This will prove challenging for risk sentiment, but looking at the immediate action, bulls and bears are just fighting within a range. Let's look at the technical situation by diving into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:WTI Oil plays tricks ahead of weekend risk – WTI Technical analysisWeekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: US-Iran standoff trumps US PPI, setting stage for $5300/ozUS PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactionsCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – February 27, 2026 While the Dow struggled the most during overnight futures trading, defensive stocks are taking the lead again against the tech and financial sectors, seeing a second consecutive day of outflows.Nvidia is leading to the downside along with JP Morgan, as investors keep punishing the record numbers and projections and rotating back to the more traditional, HALO stocks.It seems that participants are agreeing that we are slowly shifting towards the late-cycle in the most powerful economy.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is crossing back below the 49,000 psychological.With all due respect to the volatility of recent action, this recent price action really just resembles another establishment of a 1,000 point range within the Index – Holding between 48,600 and 49,600.The immediate action is a doji, so hesitancy will contain the action until either bulls or bears take the hand:Watch for a break above 49,041 for more upsideFor more downside, watch for a move below 48,750Keep a close eye on the formation of a short-timeframe bear channelDow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Channel highs and 2H 50-period MA 49,200January ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700 (rejection)Past session highs 49,85049,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Range Highs)Index All-Time highs 50,512Support LevelsSession lows and Past week Support 48,660 to 48,750 (bearish below)November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Minor SupportKey Support from 47,500 to 48,000 (Next main Support)45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is looking confused again – and if confusion doesn't inspire you, it could always be safe to look elsewhere.A short term, strangely looking double bottom hints at a short-term bounce.However, the 2H 50-period MA will be acting as immediate resistance. Failing to breach it could lead to further downside (watch the 24,740 intraday support)Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,000 Pivot Level and 2H 50-period MA25,400 to 25,500 Key intraday resistanceAll-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Support LevelsMini-intraday support 24,744 (bearish below)24,500 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)February Support 24,150 to 24,200October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 also looks quite mixed, which points at similar breakout potentials as the Dow Jones.Any move below session lows (6,832) would point to downside continuationA reversal above the 50 and 200-period MAs (~6,890) would lead to a quick test of 7,000S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels50 and 200 2H MAs (~6,890)Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (testing)Current ATH 7,020All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)Support LevelsSession lows 6,832Current Range intraday Support 6,820Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,8506,800 Psychological SupportFebruary lows 6,730 (Higher timeframe range lows)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments & Month-end flows!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (27/02/2026): To end this week's trading, join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the latest headlines in financial markets. In today's episode, we discuss the latest in Fed monetary policy expectations amid an imminent change in the chairmanship and an apparent uptick in PPI inflation. Otherwise, we look at current tensions between the US & Iran, the impact on financial markets, and look ahead to next week. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil shoots higher as anxiety mounts again ahead of weekend and month-end risksThe commodity is at the center of the action with US sending warnings to staff and citizens in the Middle EastExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity Geopolitics is playing tricks on traders, and this story is as old as it gets.It has now been about two entire months since the Middle East risk has been playing with Market sentiment. While the cause is no joke, with many thousands of casualties among Iranian protesters (+30,000 from the latest official numbers in late January, the actual toll might be higher), Oil has certainly been playing tricks.Just yesterday, WTI fell to $63.50 a barrel; Prices are now looking quite different.Overnight, US embassies have called on their non-essential staff to leave the premises in Israel and Iraq, sending new waves of Market panic regarding a potential attack over the weekend.Polymarket odds for an intervention this weekend are still low but tilting higher after the warning. True odds are still quite unpredictable. Odds for a US strike in Iran by Monday – Source: Polymarket. February 27, 2026 After optimistic headlines regarding a deal, with US-Iran discussions to be continued on Monday in Vienna, the tension still remains quite high.Risk-off flows have taken on Market flows, Oil spiked to $68 but is now slightly reversing its course, hanging tightly around $67. There will be an OPEC+ Meeting on Sunday, so that could also be another factor for volatility, prompting caution among Oil traders.As the situation has little odds to get more clear ahead of the weekend and month-end close, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the issue. Read More:US PPI hotter than expected and risk-off flows – Market reactionsWeekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: US-Iran standoff trumps US PPI, setting stage for $5300/ozMarkets Today: FTSE 100 prints fresh highs as STOXX 600 nears record streak. US PPI data and US/Iran risk in focusUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart – February 27, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI is following its Daily Tensions ascending Channel with solidity.The immediate Daily candle is looking bullish but very uncertain – Nevertheless, as long as prices remain above the $65 - $66 Pivot after session closes, the immediate momentum goes toward the bulls. The indicator to watch is the 20-Day moving average ($64.61) which acted as key support throughout the entire trend. Pullback traders could also leave bids at the 200-Day MA ($62.96) which coincides with the bottom of the ascending channel, if prices get there anytime before a potential spike.WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – February 27, 2026. Source: TradingView Those who placed bids at the intraday support ($63.80 to $64) got welcomed by a sweet wick before the daily rebound.The spike to just below $68 did fade back and the action is now consolidating around $67, a level still hinting at stressed Market participants ahead of the weekend.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance LevelsMorning highs $67.93September 2025 Major resistance $67.50 to $68Psychological Resistance $70$78.43 12-Day War highsSupport Levels$66.50 End-January spike (recent retest and mid-channel level)War flows Pivot $65.00 to $66.001H 50 and 200-Period MA $63.80 – $64War Premium Support $62.00 to $63.40 (200-Day MA)4H 200-period MA $61.65May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major supportIran Support area $58.50 to $591H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – February 27, 2026. Source: TradingView Oil is spiking in recent action and the current 1H doji candle is proving how confused Participants are ahead of the weekend action.Some levels to keep your eyes on for upcoming trading:Breaking $68 on high volume points to confirming military action in the Middle East$65 acting as support implies that tension remains elevated – This could be a decent spot for entries on Monday (wait for the Market open to see what happens)If nothing happens, look for a retest of the key war-premium support zone $62.00 to $63.40Safe Trades and an enjoyable weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is a follow up from Gold (XAU/USD) bulls eye acceptance above $5200/oz, can NVIDIA earnings impact haven demand?Gold has pushed above the $5200/oz handle, eyeing a seventh straight monthly gainThe rally is primarily driven by a surge in haven demand following news of potential imminent US military action against Iran, escalating geopolitical risk.High-impact US data next week (ISM, jobs report) will influence the US Dollar. The Fed is not anticipated to cut rates until at least June due to lukewarm job breadth and elevated price pressures.Gold maintains a bullish trajectory, with the next resistance challenges at $5249/oz and $5300/oz, and downside support at $5,150/oz.Gold prices have pushed beyond the $5200/oz handle on Friday with a hot US PPI print failing to deter Gold bulls. The PPI release led to temporary US Dollar strength but the DXY has since pushed lower to trade in the red for the day.As discussed in the previous piece on February 25, Gold needs acceptance above the $5200 for bulls to seize the initiative. Well, what better way to achieve this than a break and weekly candle close above the $5200/oz handle?Gold fundamental outlook Gold is heading into the end of February eyeing a seventh straight monthly gain. The recent selloff did give market participants food for thought but a renewed surge in haven demand has boosted the precious metal.News earlier today from various sources point to the potential of an imminent US attack on Iran. Chinese authorities have warned their citizens to leave Iran and Israel while an Al-Arabiya correspondent on X posted that the US State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-essential staff and their families from the US Embassy in Baghdad.These moves together point to a rise in geopolitical risk which could explain the rally to end the week.Add to this the pivot away from US stocks and NVIDIA selloff post what was a rather upbeat earnings outlook, markets appear to have found the needed catalyst for bullish momentum to prevail.Given that the weekend is ahead, any move by the US on Iran could lead to significant haven demand and thus Gold could open with a significant gap after the weekend.This is definitely worth monitoring if you are holding trades heading into the weekend.Most Read: US-Iran Talks Advance: Iranian FM confirms progress on nuclear and sanctions issues, Oil prices steadyThe week ahead - ISM, NFP in focus The week ahead brings high impact US data releases, which together with the Geopolitical risk angle could have a massive impact on the US Dollar which remains under pressure as the DXY remains below the 98.00 handle.The ISM Manufacturing and Services report will be a major data release next week.The ISM showed significant strength in January, more recent regional Federal Reserve surveys indicate a slight softening in economic activity for February. Despite this cooling trend, "prices paid" components are expected to remain high, driven by rising oil prices and a heightened risk premium resulting from escalating tensions between Iran and the US.On the labor front, the Friday jobs report is expected to reveal a steady but narrow expansion.Current estimates suggest the economy is adding approximately 50,000 jobs per month; however, the lack of broad-based growth remains a concern. Roughly 70% of all employment gains over the last three years have been concentrated in the private education and healthcare sectors.Following a surprise drop in the previous month, the unemployment rate is projected to tick back up to 4.4%.Ultimately, these combined factors, a lukewarm job breadth and elevated price pressures are unlikely to prompt immediate action from the Federal Reserve.Given this data, a rate cut is not anticipated until at least June. Will we get a surprise? For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, Gold is currently maintaining a bullish trajectory.A weekly candle close above the $5200/oz handle will ensure the bullish momentum remains strong heading into next week.The next xhallenge will be a break above the $5249/oz handle before the $5300 mark comes into focus.Of course, a US attack on Iran could see these levels smashed as the new week starts with further resistance ahead at $5337 before the $5400 handle comes into fcous.Downside support rests at $5,150/oz. If that level fails to hold, the price may slide further toward the February 24 low of $5,093/oz.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, February 27, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It is now the second consecutive beat on the Producer Prices Inflation report and there are many reasons to be concerned.The effect of tariffs is starting to be felt, and with IEEPA tariffs getting ruled out by the Supreme Court, things could be turning ugly in the upcoming CPI reports. Coming at 2.9% vs 2.6% expected on the headline and 3.6% vs 3% estimates on the Core, this morning's report sends out the inflationary fears that Markets have feared for long. The worst about it is that the progress in inflation has been more consistent than the hopes for a one time boost only.You can get access to the report right here.Luckily for rate cut maximalists, risk-off flows are back on the table and this is supporting lower yields. Let's watch a couple morning reactions ahead of Month-End trading.(P.S: Canadian GDP landed at -0.6% vs 0% expected – Rate hikes are not gonna be a now thing) Core PPI (ex Energy and Food) since 2025 – Source: Trading Economics Read More:Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) corrective rebound extends further above $5,046 key supportMarkets Today: FTSE 100 prints fresh highs as STOXX 600 nears record streak. US PPI data and US/Iran risk in focusMarket ReactionsUS Treasuries run higher (Yields lower) US 10 Year Treasury Bond (CFD) – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bonds are back on the bid despite the PPI report, indicating that Markets are actually more focused on the Middle East than anything else ahead of the weekend.Markets are getting anxious about the US demanding that its staff and citizens in Israel leave the embassies and increase security measures. S&P 500 30M Chart – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView US Equities are taking a hit at the pre-open. Today will be a long session, particularly with month-end and weekend risk approaching.Gold breaks back above $5,200 Gold 2H Chart – February 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold is now holding well above $5,200. To me, risk-premium is priced in already but if anything happens, a spike to all-time highs could easily occur.Cryptos are tumbling Current Session in Cryptos (09:30 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Oil update coming up very soon! Keep a close eye on headlines and flows throughout the day as today is promised to be quite volatile.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has been holding strong amid tariff chaos and (supposedly) advancing talks in Geneva with Iran – More on this coming soonFX Markets have been consolidating ahead of key geopolitics and are awaiting to take on a directionDollar Index Technical Analysis ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls The US Dollar really went on a run last week after having broken out of its early 2026 downward trend.Markets have been looking for clarity, and clarity they could not find. Geopolitics seems to be advancing with the ongoing diplomatic exchanges in Geneva, which began in the mid-Swiss afternoon and should resume soon after a 3-hour break.Except for a quick awakening in yesterday's session (and the Japanese Yen, often going onto its own adventures as of late), Forex Markets have remained desperately muted in the past weeks of action, with most Major pairs holding a 1,000 pip range – and that's being generous!As uncertainty reigns, traders can find ranges to play around with tight stops, to remain active and see even more advantage in taking quick trades while waiting for bigger opportunities.Even the Aussie Dollar, which sent another beat on its CPI earlier this week, couldn't find the momentum to extend its lead. Everyone is looking at the same currency:The US Dollar. What will happen to it, and what will be the outcomes of the US-Iran talks?It seems that a breakout could be on the way with the Dollar bouncing right as I conclude this piece.Markets will learn more soon, which should lead to significant breakouts across the board. We’ll explore a few scenarios for upcoming breakouts in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY. Discover:Tariffs and doubts – North American Mid-Week Market updateChart Alert: WTI crude oil bullish flag in play above $64.15 as US-Iran talk loomsMarkets Today: Nikkei clears 59000, Gold holds high ground, FTSE 100 prints fresh highs. US jobless claims up nextDollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has once again confirmed that its rangebound conditions precede above all trends and narratives in its latest February rebound.It is now holding an upward trendline towards the mid-range resistance (98.00) which has been rejecting a few times.It is still early to confirm, but remaining above its Mid-term Pivot (97.40) with an RSI above neutral adds further chances of an upside breakout – Look for a break above 98.00.The breakout will be contingent on heightened Middle East tensions remaining elevatedBreaking the upward trendline (immediate support at 97.47) would allow for a correction lowerTo confirm a downside reversal, wait for a close below the 97.40A turn lower from here could lead to a later downside breakout in the Dollar Index – A small probability scenario for now.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar is bouncing back above its 4H 50 and 200-period Moving averages, prompting an immediate control from the bulls.If the lead extends, expect the 98.00 key resistance to break amid multiple tests within an Rising Wedge (bullish) formation. In that event, look for trades expressing this view in other FX pairs (GBP/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD?)Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.00 Key Resistance (Immediate test)Mini-resistance 98.80 to 99.00 (next resistance)99.40 to 99.50 January Resistance100.376 November highsSupport Levels4H 50 and 200-period MA 97.60Upward trendline 97.472025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00 (mini-range lows, 4H 50-MA)Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00Trump USD Flash Crash 95.5595.00 Main psychologic support1H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. February 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is currently extending higher and will soon be facing the test of its resistance. Traders would want to confirm a break above 98.00 in today's session to avoid an inevitable continued consolidation.98.80 - 99.00 will be the next resistanceSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global tradersA mixed week in North American trading as recent Supreme Court decision to ban IEEPA tariffs has brought the topic backTraders are still assessing the impact of the Trump Admin's new policies, with Markets ranging Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.New anxiety is showing up in Markets after the latest round of Trump Administration economic and political drama.The Supreme Court ruled that Trump's Liberation Day tariffs are illegal in last Friday's long-awaited decision.More than $133 billion of duties may have to be refunded from the decision, leading to its own puzzle. The greatest confusion stems from participants' fear of the repercussions.The President quickly announced that he would impose new tariffs under the temporary Section 122 law, allowing levies of 10% (brought up to 15%) for Balance of Trade purposes. The policy will only be active for 150 days; hence, it may trigger further action from Trump's legal team to find new ways to enforce it.The irony of the new rule is that tariffs on Brazil, India, and, more particularly, China were significantly reduced (from close to 50% to 15% for the latter). Tariffs Change Map – Source: NY Times US Trade Representative Greer came out this morning saying that China would still see its original tariff level remain in place, but would have to face stricter legal rules to do so.Markets initially reacted positively to the announcement, but the tone has since clouded. Participants are casting doubt on renewed trade uncertainty, as nations around the world have resurfaced their angst over the developments.The Middle East remains a fear factor for traders right ahead of tomorrow's expected US-Iran third round of talks on the Nuclear and Ballistic Missile program from the Islamic Regime. If no deal is reached, wartime could be very near.In terms of data, renewed acceleration in US data further delays hopes for Federal Reserve cuts, with last Friday's PCE reminding that the battle is not over (3.0% vs 2.8% expected) and the American labor market remaining pretty solid.A wave of Fed speakers has made remarks on the issue, and a cut in May is now much less probable. Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Cartel chaos rocks Mexico: USD/MXN outlook as retaliatory violence spikesBitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) on their way to 2026 lows: Is a double-bottom coming?EUR/USD: Trapped at 1.1800 as Euro Area inflation cools significantly… what next?NVIDIA (NVDA): Probing 195.95 bullish upside trigger as earnings loom todayNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – February 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView After a very choppy week, US Equities have began to form their rebound, particularly in Nasdaq and S&P 500. Both higher-beta indexes have found relief in the ironically easier tariffs rulings and been forming decent bottoms since.Dow Jones is struggling on the other hand.Still, they pale in performance compared to the Canadian TSX, up 2.50% this week, and especially the Japanese Nikkei 225, up close to 4.00% (apart from those gains being offset by the significantly weaker yen).Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, February 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has remained very solid despite the renewed tariff uncertainty, with the DXY forming a rising wedge and testing its 98.00 Resistance now for the third time.The Middle East risk-premium is also contributing to its relative demand, but overall, traders have faded the downmove in the Greenback. Combined with the heavy bearish positioning, it wouldn't be surprising to see the USD extend higher in times to come.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.00 Key Mid-Range Resistance (testing)Mini-resistance 98.80 to 99.0099.40 to 99.50 January Resistance100.376 November highsSupport Levels4H MA 200 97.70Mid-range Pivot 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00Trump USD Flash Crash 95.5595.00 Main psychologic supportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, February 25, 2026 - Source: TradingView The US Dollar did remain surprisingly strong throughout the latest tariff drama, however as you can see, FX movement remained very muted. Expect more movement ahead.Only the Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar have outperformed the USD.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, February 25, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar held well throughout the last week but after a streak of softer CPI and Retail Sales, has started to see some outflows.The big test lands on Friday with Canadian GDP to see how activity reflected throughout the final quarter of 2025. CAD traders will have to log in at 8:30 A.M that day!Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USD/CAD 4H Chart, February 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD has rebounded well since last week but is now facing a key test, holding within its key 1.3650 to 1.37 Pivot area, right between its 4H 50 and 200 period Moving Averages.Moving above its 200 MA points to further upside and vice versa if it breaks the MA 50.Check out our latest USD/CAD in depth analysis right here!Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.37067 4H 200-MA1.3770 to 1.38 Key Resistance (Channel top)Major Resistance 1.3870 to 1.39 (January highs)Support Levels2025 Key support Zone 1.3560 to 1.36October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.351.3480 USD-Crash lowsUS and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Friday should be the heaviest session in terms of Economic Data, between US PPI data and Canadian GDP.And as always, keep a close eye on Middle East Developments.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (25/02/2026): Join us in today's episode of Market Insights, where TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the latest in trade tarrifs, US-Iran tensions, Trump's "State of the Union" speech as well as NVIDIA's upcoming earnings. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Euro Area annual inflation cooled to 1.7% in January 2026, the lowest level since September 2024.Core inflation, stripping out volatile items like energy and food, dropped to 2.2%, its lowest point since October 2021.The EUR/USD pair is struggling for direction around the 1.1800 handle, with its next move dependent on the US dollar's strength and central bank commentary.Most Read: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 Earnings Preview: High stakes for the AI standard-bearerEUR/USD has continued to struggle for direction around the 1.1800 handle. For the last 5 days EUR/USD has traded between the 1.1840-1.1740 handles with breakout not yet forthcoming.Market participants had eyed the Euro CPI release as a potential catalyst for a breakout, however the data failed to inspire a bullish move for the Euro. The MoM inflation was actually worse than expected in the final number, dropping to -0.6% compared to the forecast of -0.5%.Euro Area inflation at lowest level since September 2024 In January 2026, the Euro Area saw a notable cooling in cost pressures as annual inflation was confirmed at 1.7%, a drop from the 2.0% recorded in December.This mark represents the lowest inflation level since September 2024, a shift that occurred alongside a significant strengthening of the euro, which surpassed the $1.20 threshold, its highest valuation in over four years.This currency appreciation helped dampen price growth across several sectors; specifically, services inflation moderated to 3.2%, and the cost of processed food, alcohol, and tobacco slowed slightly to 2.0%. The most dramatic downward pressure came from energy prices, which plummeted by 4.0% in January, more than doubling the pace of the decline seen the previous month.Despite the general downward trend, some sectors experienced upward pressure. Inflation for unprocessed food climbed to 4.2%, up from 3.5% in December, while non-energy industrial goods saw a marginal uptick to 0.4%.However, the underlying trend remained soft, as evidenced by core inflation which strips out volatile items like energy and food, falling to 2.2%. This is a significant milestone, marking its lowest point since October 2021.The slowdown was visible across most of the bloc’s major economies, though the intensity varied by country. Source: EuroStat What comes next for EUR/USD? EUR/USDs next move may depend on the US dollar which has been seeing a resurgence of late. If this persists coupled with the low inflation the EU, EUR/USD could continue its grind lower.Chatter from Federal Reserve policymakers yesterday aided the USD as they adopted a more hawkish rhetoric. Later in the US session we have a host of Fed policymakers speaking. Are we going to get a similar story to yesterday?Tomorrow’s speech by ECB President Lagarde at the EU Parliament is the only potential domestic driver for the euro this week, ahead of flash CPI figures on Friday.As much as chatter around the end of the ‘Trump trade’ has intensified, there are still concentration risks around the US which could hamper the US dollar and thus keep EUR/USD holding the line for now. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis on EUR/USD EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation phase following a significant rally and subsequent sharp rejection from the 1.2000 psychological resistance level.Price action is currently being squeezed between a descending trendline and a key horizontal support zone with price right at the apex meaning a breakout is imminent.This descending triangle pattern suggests that selling pressure is gradually increasing. However, the horizontal support at 1.1769 is holding firm for now.The pair is trading slightly above its 100-day SMA. This moving average is sloping upward, suggesting that the broader medium-term trend still has a bullish bias, even if the short-term momentum is cooling off.A few mixed signals but a breakout to the upside of the triangle pattern could facilitate a move higher as the 100-day SMA does hint a overall bullish bias.Immediate resistance rests at the 1.1840 handle before the 1.1920 and 1.2000 psychological level come into focus.A move to the downside may find support at the 1.1700 handle. The next target to the downside is the long-term ascending trendline near 1.1600.EUR/USD Daily Chart, February 25, 2026 Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways RBA may maintain hawkish stance: Australia’s core CPI rose to 3.4% y/y in January, above expectations. Markets are now pricing another hike in May, reinforcing a tightening bias.Yield spread favours AUD strength: The Australia–US short-term rate spread has widened sharply, supporting further AUD appreciation. The Aussie is already the best-performing major currency YTD, up 5.8% against the US dollar.Bullish technical setup intact: AUD/USD has formed a minor bullish base at the 20-day moving average. A break above 0.7110 opens room toward 0.7140–0.7210, while 0.7020 remains key support. The RBA, Australia’s central bank, was the first developed nation central bank (other than the Bank of Japan) to kickstart a potential interest rate hike cycle, raising its cash policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on 3 February 2026.The decision marked the first-rate hike since November 2023, underscoring renewed cost pressures that intensified in H2 2025. Today’s hotter-than-expected core CPI data for January, which recorded a 3.4% year-on-year rise versus 3.3% y/y consensus and above December 2025’s print of 3.3%, is likely to strengthen the hawkish vibes in the RBA.The latest 3.4% y/y print in Australia’s core CPI is the highest since September 2024 and continued to stay “stubbornly” above RBA’s inflation target band of 2-3%.Short-term interest rate futures in Australia have started to price in a further rate hike by the RBA in May to increase the cash rate to 4.1%.Monthly implied future policy interest rate curves spread suggest a hawkish RBA Fig. 1: AU/US monthly implied future policy interest rate curves spread as of 25 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) In addition, the spread between the monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for Australia and the US (derived from short-term interest rate futures) has risen steadily and shifted upwards (see Fig. 1).The spread for May 2026 is now at 0.52%, a widening of 29 bps from 0.23% recorded three months ago. The current upward trajectory of Australia’s short-term interest rate premium over the United States’ short-term interest rates is likely to support a further strengthening of the Australian dollar against the greenback, which has a year-to-date positive return of 5.8% as of 25 February 2026 at the time of writing, the best-performing major currency against the US dollar.Let us now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) technical trend and key levels to watch on the AUD/USD.AUD/USD – Minor bullish basing has formed after a retest on the 20-day MA Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 25 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) The recent retest on the 20-day moving average on 20 February and 24 February has formed a potential minor bullish basing formation for the AUD/USD, with its neckline resistance at 0.7110 (see Fig. 2).Bullish bias with 0.7035/0.7020 key short-term pivotal support on the AUD/USD. A clearance above 0.7110 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.7140, 0.7175, and 0.7210.On the flip side, failure to hold at 0.7020 and an hourly close below it negates the bullish tone to see another round of minor corrective decline sequence unfolding to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6980 and 0.6907/0.6890.Key elements to support the bullish bias on AUD/USD Minor bullish basing formation at the 20-day moving average.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has shaped a “higher low” above the 50 level, which suggests a potential resurgence of short-term bullish momentum. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.