Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 20US and global stocks rose sharply on Monday, driven by optimistic investor sentiment as they look forward to a week packed with earnings reports from major American companies.All three major US indexes, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, gained more than 1%. The S&P 500 increased by 1.1%. Loop Capital, the latest business to cite strong iPhone demand patterns, raised Apple's shares to buy, helping the company set its first record in 2025. A barometer of technology megacaps rose 1.6%. The Russell 2000 index of small businesses rose 1.9%The mood among investors is very positive, despite two major risks: the US government shutdown is now in its 20th day, freezing the release of most official economic data; and there are ongoing worries about credit quality in the regional banking sector, which some experts believe could cool down the overall stock market.This week, investor focus will be on reports from giants like Tesla, Netflix, IBM, Procter & Gamble, and Coca-Cola. Traders are betting that these large companies will deliver strong results, which helped push a global stock index (MSCI's gauge) up by 1.25% for the day.Furthermore, investors are closely watching for any cues from the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the delayed U.S. inflation report, which is finally expected to be released this Friday. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Netflix (NFLX) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Decoding Netflix's Shift to Profitability-Driven Growth (ARM)Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin and Gold were the standout performers on the day with both instruments recording gains north of 2%.Gold in particular printed a fresh all-time just above the $4380/oz handle.The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones recorded a positive start to the week with both indexes rising north of 1%.The US 10Y bond yield struggled sliding just shy of the 1% mark on the day.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 20 – Source: OANDA Labs The U.S. dollar saw a small gain on Monday with the overall dollar index rising slightly by 0.053% but remains near the low point it hit on Friday.Against the Japanese yen, the dollar edged up 0.08%. The euro slipped slightly, dropping 0.06%.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar saw the biggest movement, rising 0.48%, as traders cheered new data showing that China's economy (Australia's biggest trade partner) is holding up reasonably well despite U.S. tariffs.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Asian session will be a quiet one in terms of data releases.Attention will be on the European session tomorrow where we will get speeches from a few ECB policymakers as well as President Christine Lagarde.Ahead of the US session markets will brace for the continuation of US earnings releases with some companies such as General Motors, Verizon and Coca-Cola among other reporting ahead of the market open.The US session remains light with the highlight coming from Canada with the release of Canadian inflation data as well as a speech by Fed policymaker Waller.Netflix will be the main earnings release after the market close tomorrow and could have implications for Nasdaq 100 as well.Safe Trades!Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - Tesla, Netflix Earnings, US CPI and China's Five-Year Plan in Focus as US-China Tensions SimmerNetflix, Inc. (NFLX) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings report after the market close on October 21, 2025. This reporting period is widely regarded as a key marker in the company’s strategic shift from a volume-based (subscriber count) growth model to a profitability-based model driven by Average Revenue Per Member (ARM) acceleration.Market participants attention has fundamentally transitioned away from the headline subscriber figures which Netflix is ceasing to report quarterly in 2025 toward metrics detailing the efficiency of monetization efforts.What to Expect? Market experts believe that Netflix will meet or slightly beat its own financial goals, showing it is running its business very well.Revenue: The company expects to bring in $11.526 billion in revenue, which would be about 17% more than last year.Profit (EPS): Netflix's official forecast for profit per share ($6.87) is slightly lower than what analysts expect (who predict between $6.89 and $6.97). However, even the company's own target represents a very strong 27.6% jump in profit compared to last year.The expectation of such strong EPS growth is predicated on improved operating leverage. Consensus predicts the operating margin will climb to 31.5% in Q3 , fueled by high-margin revenue streams. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG, TradingKey Key Focus Areas: Monetization Over Membership The primary narrative for Q3 2025 centers on the effectiveness of three core catalysts that accelerate ARM: paid sharing conversion, the expansion of the advertising tier, and selective price increases. The success of these initiatives establishes a durable competitive advantage, as they generate revenue at very high incremental margins.The Paid Sharing Dividend and Ad-Tier GrowthThe crackdown on password sharing proved super successful, therefore it’s become a funnel that boosts paid‑sharing dividend and lifts ad‑tier growth.Since it began, Netflix added roughly 50 million new users: way beyond its own forecasts. Therefore, many price‑sensitive former password sharers opted for the Ad‑Tier service. How do Netflix do it? Turn the no‑pay users into paying ones, that brings the numbers needed to grow the ad business.By 2025, ad tier revenue's expected to double; therefore full‑year outlook hits about $1.1 billion. The expansion of the in-house ad-tech platform earlier in 2025 is vital, as internal management of advertising inventory and capabilities enables greater price realization (CPM) and better control over targeting, maximizing the incremental margins derived from this new revenue source.Therefore investors must keep tabs on profit within the well‑established market. It’s a market that covers both the US and Canada, which they call UCAN. Since price hikes began and paid sharing kicked in early this year, UCAN revenue must report a 15 % rise to definitively confirm the efficacy of Netflix's pricing power and monetization strategy in its highest-value region.Content and Margin VolatilityAlthough financial results (like revenue) look good, the key to Netflix's future success lies in its content and how it manages costs.The third quarter was packed with huge hits, like "Squid Game" Season 3 and the strategically released "Wednesday" Season 2, which are crucial for keeping subscribers.The move into live events, such as big boxing matches, is also key to attracting advertisers with content that viewers cannot skip.However, funding all this major new content in the second half of 2025 creates a financial risk. Management has warned that operating margins (profitability) will be lower in the second half of the year because of high spending on content and advertising.Therefore, market participants will be focused intensely on Netflix's forecast for the next quarter (Q4 2025), specifically looking at how the company discusses the timing of those costs, as this could cause the stock price to become volatile, even if the Q3 profits look strong.Potential Implications for Netflix Share Price For Netflix, the stock is currently valued so high that its earnings report has to be perfect to avoid a selloff.The company's stock is trading at a very expensive level (a P/E ratio of 47.2x), meaning investors have already priced in the expected strong profit growth (over 31% this year). The major risk is that analysts disagree sharply: some are very optimistic, but others warn the price is far too high (as low as $750 per share) unless the company can deliver unbelievably fast sales growth.To go up (Upside Rally): Netflix must do two things: beat the profit forecast (above $6.97 per share) and, more importantly, give a highly convincing forecast for the next quarter (Q4) that removes the worries about lower profit margins in the second half of the year. Showing a clear, fast path to reaching its long-term ad revenue goal is also critical.To go down (Downside Correction): Because the stock is priced for perfection, even a small profit beat, if paired with a vague or cautious forecast about future margins, will likely cause investors to sell their shares and take profits. Investors are focused entirely on getting qualitative assurance about the company’s implied profitability for 2026.In short, even though the company has strong momentum from its new strategies (paid sharing and the ad tier), many new investors are holding back because the stock is too expensive and the risk of failure is too high.Netflix Daily Chart, October 20, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Rises 3.4% Most Read: Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Asian stock markets surged to record highs on Monday, fueled by a renewed sense of optimism over cooling trade tensions and positive political news from Japan.The broad regional stock index climbed 1.7%, with markets anticipating gains in the US and Europe. Japan's stock market soared to a new record high after the announcement of a coalition deal that is expected to lead to higher government spending.The deal included specific plans, such as a 10% reduction in the number of lawmakers. This anticipation of pro-stimulus policies boosted investor confidence, weakening the yen and causing the blue-chip Nikkei share index to climb by 3.4% at the closeEven with data released today showing that Chinese economic growth has slowed to its lowest pace in a year, investors in Chinese stocks largely overlooked the deceleration, focusing instead on the hope for trade de-escalation between the US and China.China Economy Remains Resilient China's economy showed better-than-expected growth in the third quarter, signaling that the government is confident in achieving its economic goals.Official data released on Monday indicated that the economy grew by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, which was better than expected. Factory production (industrial output) also performed strongly, rising 6.5%.Although the overall annual growth rate of 4.8% was the slowest seen in a year, this result means China is still on track to meet its official annual growth target of around 5%. By releasing these figures,Beijing is sending a clear message that its current policies are effective and the country is capable of reaching its major economic development goals.European Session - European Stocks Led Higher by Bank, Defense Stocks European stocks opened strongly on Monday, gaining nearly 1%, led by a significant rebound in the banking and defense sectors.The main STOXX 600 index for Europe rose by 0.9%. Banks, which had suffered a 2.5% drop on Friday due to concerns about loan problems at US regional lenders, saw a strong bounce back, rising 1.6%. Similarly, the aerospace and defense sector climbed 2.1%, recovering from a fall triggered by news of a planned peace summit for the war in Ukraine.In company news:Gucci owner Kering jumped 4.2% after agreeing to sell its beauty business to L'Oreal.Cement maker Holcim rose 1.4% after announcing it would acquire German company Xella.Swedish defense firm Saab gained 3.1% after securing a contract for artillery radar in Spain.However, French car parts supplier Forvia lost 6% after reporting a drop in its third-quarter sales.The positive market sentiment occurred despite data showing that German producer prices (a measure of wholesale inflation) fell more than expected in September.On the FX front, the Australian dollar rose on Monday, boosted by positive signals from its top trading partner, China.The Japanese yen initially weakened against the dollar, which climbed as much as 0.4% to 151.20, because investors were confident that pro-stimulus candidate Sanae Takaichi would become Japan's next prime minister after securing key political support.However, this weakness quickly faded after a central bank official, Hajime Takata, reiterated his call to raise interest rates, which strengthened the yen.Elsewhere, the Australian dollar gained 0.3%, the euro saw a small gain of 0.1%, while the British pound edged down 0.1%.China's currency, the yuan, remained largely unchanged.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Monday, extending their recent losses, as investors worried about a global oversupply of oil and the threat of weaker demand due to trade tensions and a slowing economy.The international benchmark, Brent crude futures, fell by 0.86% to $60.76 a barrel, while US crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, dropped by 0.96% to $56.99. Both contracts erased gains from Friday and continued a pattern of decline, having dropped more than 2% last week for their third straight weekly loss. This persistent downturn is partly fueled by forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting a growing surplus of oil supply in 2026.Oil prices dropped again on Monday, continuing their third straight weekly decline, as worries about a huge global oversupply of oil combined with lower demand forecasts due to US-China trade friction.International benchmark Brent crude fell by 0.86% to $60.76 a barrel, and US crude, WTI, dropped by 0.96% to $56.99, erasing gains from Friday.Gold prices edged slightly higher on Monday, maintaining their record-high levels, while silver attempted a small recovery after a sharp drop on Friday.Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,254.59 per ounce, and US gold futures climbed 1.3%. Silver prices rose 0.2%, recovering slightly after plunging 4.4% on Friday, the same day it had hit a new record high of $54.47.Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Gold (XAU/USD) rallies to all-time highs of $4218 on trade tremors and rate cut expectations - Potential targets and price forecastEUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish ContinuationEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The most important issue for financial markets right now is the unstable relationship between the US and China, particularly ahead of two critical dates.Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet around October 29-31 at the APEC summit in Korea, just before the November 10th deadline when US tariffs on Chinese goods are set to jump significantly if no agreement is reached.Markets do appear more upbeat at the start of this week that a deal may be reached between the US and China.Later in the day markets will brace for Canadian PPI data and a few ECB policymakers speaking which could stoke some volatility.For more information on the week ahead, read Markets Weekly Outlook - Tesla, Netflix Earnings, US CPI and China's Five-Year Plan in Focus as US-China Tensions Simmer zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken back above the 200-day MA on Friday with the index eyeing a potential test of the 100-day MA at 9433.A break above the 100-day MA is needed if the FTSE is to continue its advance today.The RSI period-14 is hovering just below the 50 level which says that bearish momentum is still in play.A break above could be a sign that momentum is shifting to the bulls.Immediate support rests at 9357 before the 9338 and 9285 handles come into focus.Immediate resistance rests at 9433 before the 9500 and 9550 handles come into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 20. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review Another week has passed by and the US government shutdown continues. Despite this the week was still full of volatility as markets grappled with the ongoing US-China stalemate as well as concerns around the US banking sector later in the week.As a result safe havens continued to thrive with Gold prices soaring to near $4400/oz before falling around 2.7% on Friday. The drop in Gold came about as President Trump provided a sliver of hope on US-China relations saying "not sustainable" and that he would meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea in a few weeks.US equities enjoyed a mixed week and struggled on Thursday weighed down by Banking Stocks. US banks borrowed nearly $15 billion from the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on Wednesday and Thursday, the largest borrowing over a two-day period since the Covid-19 pandemic. Market participants were concerned about US credit markets as a result and whether that could affect valuations across markets.The selloff on Thursday rippled through Asia overnight and weighed on European stocks on Friday wiping out weekly gains.These concerns came about after major US banks reported stellar earnings earlier in the week.Despite the mixed week for US and global equity markets, equity funds attracted inflows for a fourth straight week through October 15, as dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates at its meeting later this month.Across the globe, investors bought about $2.17 billion worth of stock funds this past week, a figure similar to the week before. This money mainly flowed into U.S. and Asian stock funds, which saw nearly $1 billion in inflows each.Conversely, European stock funds saw a significant outflow of $1.62 billion, ending a ten-week period of continuous buying. Within the market, interest in funds focused on specific sectors surged by nearly 50%, with the Technology and Healthcare sectors leading all investments. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Next week the US reporting season heats up and could set the tone for global equity markets. After major banks reported this past week, next week will feature results from several major household names, including Tesla and Netflix which are among the most closely watched reports. We will also get reports from other big names like Procter & Gamble (P&G), Coca-Cola and aerospace giant RTX and tech veteran IBM.How has the US Dollar Performed? The U.S. dollar is finishing the week with losses against major global currencies.The overall dollar index, which tracks the US currency's value, is on track for a 0.44% weekly slide, its largest drop since late July despite a small gain of 0.26% on Friday.The dollar weakened against the safe-haven Swiss franc, falling 0.1% to its lowest level since mid-September.Meanwhile, the euro was set for its best weekly gain against the dollar in nine weeks, even though it dipped slightly by 0.22% on Friday.Finally, the dollar was flat against the Japanese yen, which is also on track to notch a weekly gain, and the British pound (sterling) was down slightly by 0.2% but still poised for a weekly gain.This week also saw rate cut expectations rise with market participants now pricing in around 51 bps of rate cuts through December 2025, up from around 44 bps earlier in the week.This is based on the LSEG data.The Week Ahead Next week will definitely be a busier one as we did have a bit of a data break this week. Obviously the US Government shutdown has hampered US data releases but there was also a lack of high impact data from around the world. .The week ahead brings a host of high impact data releases from around the globe including inflation data from the US, China and Canada. While we also have a host of Central Bank policymakers speaking.Let us take a look at some of the key data releases which could shake markets next week.Asia Pacific MarketsChina is facing a pivotal week that will set its economic direction for the next five years, even as new data is expected to confirm a recent slowdown.From Monday to Wednesday, the Fourth Plenum meetings will be held, with the main goal of discussing China's important 15th Five-Year Plan for the years 2026 to 2030. Key priorities that are expected to be highlighted include boosting consumer spending, driving technological innovation (especially in areas like AI and semiconductors to achieve self-reliance), and generally shifting toward "high-quality development" to secure long-term growth.Separately, critical economic data is due on Monday:Loan Prime Rates: The central bank is expected to keep these key interest rates unchanged.GDP and Property: Official data is likely to show China's third-quarter economic growth slowed substantially to around 4.5% for the year. Key monthly data on retail sales and factory output are also expected to show a deceleration. Additionally, data on property prices is expected to confirm the market is still weak, as the government has not yet announced any major new stimulus to turn the sector around.With the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision coming up on October 30th, two key pieces of economic data are highly important this week: trade and inflation figures.Japan's exports are expected to rebound and grow by 4.0% compared to a year ago, mainly because shipments of goods like cars and chip-making machinery are returning to normal following the recent 15% tariff deal with the US At the same time, imports are likely to decrease slightly by 0.5%, largely because global commodity prices are lower. Analysts expect exports to continue normalizing in the coming months due to the September trade agreement.The overall inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.9% for September, with core prices likely remaining above 3.0%. The main reason inflation has slowed down recently is due to temporary factors, specifically government subsidies for energy and social welfare programs.Tariffs, Tariffs and More TariffsDue to the ongoing US government shutdown, there is a serious lack of clear information on how the economy is actually performing.The government's statistical agencies are closed, meaning key reports are delayed, and even when the government reopens, it will take weeks to properly collect and process the missing data.However, one important piece of information, the September inflation report (CPI) has been confirmed for release. This is not for the Federal Reserve's benefit (even though they need it for their October 29th meeting), but because the number is legally required to calculate the Social Security cost-of-living increase for 2026.Experts still expect the report to show a small rise in overall prices (0.4% for the month) and a modest increase in core prices (0.3%). Even if tariffs start making inflation more obvious, the Fed's biggest concern right now is the weakening job market, meaning a small rise in inflation will not stop them from making a planned quarter-point interest rate cut later this month. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)From a technical perspective, the DXY has broken a three-day losing streak finding support at the 100-day MA on Friday.The daily candle closed as a hammer candle setting up the potential for further upside on Monday.If this level holds on Monday the DXY could continue its rise in the early part of next week. This will also depend on US-China developments.CPI data will be due on Friday though and market participants may be slightly hesitant to commit to any major moves ahead of the data release.This could potentially lead to some choppy price action in the early part of the week, something to consider.Immediate resistance rests at 99.57 before the psychological 100.00 handle comes into focus.Looking at support and a break below the 100-day MA could lead to a retest of the 97.70 or 96.90 support levels.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - October 17, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 17US stocks finished a nervous week on a high note, gaining ground as President Donald Trump's comments suggested trade tensions with China were easing and regional bank stocks bounced back.The S&P 500 index saw its best weekly gain since August after Trump said he was optimistic about reaching a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping at their upcoming meeting, calming fears of an escalating trade war.This positive sentiment was boosted by a rebound in regional bank stocks, which had plunged earlier in the week due to loan quality fears.Both Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp, the banks at the heart of the worry, rallied over 3.1% as bank executives quickly reassured investors and reported lower-than-expected provisions for loan losses in their latest earnings.As market confidence returned, traders moved money out of safe-haven assets: bonds, gold, and silver all fell, while bond yields rose from their recent lows. Despite the week's high volatility, investors poured $28.1 billion back into stock funds, pulling money out of cash funds.Separately, with the US government shutdown still blocking official data, one unofficial measure showed that applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the job market may still be stable despite other signs of economic weakness. Oracle Corp. was a notable exception to the rally, dropping about 7% due to renewed concerns about its ability to meet the massive demand for its AI cloud services. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?A New Trade War Begun? U.S.–China Tensions Back in the SpotlightUS: Lack of Labor Market Data Due to Government Shutdown – Investors Seek Alternative IndicatorsCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView US stocks recovered with the Nasdaq 100 leading the way. The surprise of the day came from Gold which retreated to a daily low around $4190/oz before recovering to $4250/oz before the market close. The question now is whether the precious metal will be able to continue its rally next week?Bitcoin continues to edge its way lower as it struggles to regain bullish traction despite increasing rate cut bets.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 15 – Source: OANDA Labs The U.S. dollar is set to record a weekly loss against major currencies.The dollar weakened against the safe-haven Swiss franc, falling to its lowest level since mid-September and heading for its biggest weekly decline since June.The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of others, is on track for a 0.43% weekly slide.Meanwhile, the euro is set for its strongest weekly performance against the dollar in nine weeks, despite a small drop on Friday.The Japanese yen saw its earlier gains fade after the Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, discussed the factors that could lead to an interest rate increase this month.A look at Economic data releasing early next week zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The start of next week will be a busy one in terms of data.Sunday night we have CPI data from New Zealand which could lead to some volatility in NZD pairs.This will be followed by a Chinese data dump with GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales data. All of which could have wider implications for currencies like the Australian Dollar and provide more insight into the Chinese economy.For more information on data releases next week, readFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Renewed U.S.–China tensions: Escalating sanctions and trade restrictions spark fears of a new wave of economic confrontationChina’s economy under pressure: Weak domestic indicators and limited government stimulus highlight mounting internal challengesGlobal implications: Rising risk of supply chain disruptions, resource shortages, and deeper geopolitical fragmentation In recent weeks, trade tensions between the United States and China have visibly intensified, raising fears of a new wave of economic conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Rhetoric on both sides has become increasingly confrontational, and the growing risk of decoupling and disruptions to supply chains could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.China Responds with Sanctions – Tensions After Madrid TalksThe immediate catalyst for the escalation was the round of talks in Madrid, after which the United States expanded sanctions against companies linked to Chinese entities on the so-called “blacklist.” In response, Beijing announced sanctions against American firms cooperating with South Korean company Hanwha — including Philly Shipyard, which fulfills contracts for the U.S. Navy. Chinese authorities justified the move as a countermeasure to the deepening defense cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea. zoom_out_map Daily chart USDCNH, source: TradingView Negotiation Climate Weakens, But Formal Frameworks RemainChina’s Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, accused the U.S. of “destroying the constructive atmosphere for negotiations” and called for an immediate withdrawal from what he termed “erroneous trade practices.” At the same time, China announced it would release a report within the WTO evaluating U.S. actions in 11 areas of international trade.Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that China’s restrictions on the export of rare earth metals could accelerate the global process of economic decoupling — the effort to reduce dependency on Chinese supply chains.Trump: 100% Tariffs Possible, But UndesirablePresident Donald Trump signaled that 100% tariffs on Chinese goods were possible if tensions continue to escalate, though he sought to calm markets by noting that “both leaders do not want a global recession.” The planned Trump–Xi meeting during the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea could prove decisive for the future of bilateral relations.Trade Dispute Deepens China’s Economic TroublesThe escalation comes at a difficult moment for China’s economy. Despite record exports (trade surplus: USD 875 billion), GDP growth in Q3 is projected at just 4.7% year-on-year — potentially the weakest result in a year. zoom_out_map Chinese quarterly GDP (annualized), source: TradingView Domestic indicators are also disappointing:Retail sales (September): +3% y/y – the weakest result in 2025Industrial production: +5%, with slowing momentumFixed-asset investment: near zero growthForeign direct investment: down 13% over the past eight monthsReal estate sector: still in recession, with deflation for the ninth consecutive quarterGovernment Support Falls ShortThe Chinese government has launched a 500-billion-yuan investment package, focused mainly on infrastructure. However, a large share of the funds has gone toward repaying previous obligations, limiting the actual stimulus effect.Ahead of the upcoming plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, new measures to boost consumption are expected. Household consumption currently accounts for only 40% of GDP — well below the global average of 56% and the roughly 60% level typical for developed economies. A New Wave of Trade War?Further escalation could trigger a new round of trade warfare, hitting global supply chains, access to strategic resources, and financial market stability. Although the formal negotiation framework established in London remains in place, sentiment on both sides is increasingly confrontational.While a full-scale trade war is not yet inevitable, the current escalation signals that U.S.–China relations are entering a new phase of uncertainty. High-level meetings and potential decisions on further restrictions remain at the center of global attention. For the world economy, this is a test of resilience in a new geopolitical reality — one in which trade is no longer just about economics. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Investors rely on private data (ADP, ISM, Conference Board), but correlations with official figures are weak.Alternative indicators suggest slower hiring, not a collapse.The Fed is likely to stay cautious with future rate cuts. The third week of the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government is increasingly disrupting access to official economic data. The suspension of key reports makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation as it prepares for the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for October 28–29. In this environment, investors and analysts are attempting to replace government statistics with private-sector indicators — though their reliability remains limited.Limited Access to Data and the Fed’s Policy Challenges Due to the ongoing stalemate in Congress, many federal agencies, including statistical offices, have been closed since October 1. This has resulted in the suspension of several crucial releases, including employment reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to publish consumer inflation data on October 24, albeit with a one-week delay. For the Federal Reserve, this situation represents a significant obstacle to evaluating the state of the economy — especially the labor market, which currently shows signs of fragility.Private Data Sources – Limited Informational Value ADP: The ADP report, based on payroll data from 26 million private-sector employees, showed that U.S. private employers cut 32,000 jobs in September, marking the latest sign that the labor market is entering a significant slowdown. By sector, the largest losses were recorded in service-providing industries, including leisure and hospitality as well as business services, where employment fell by 28,000 positions. Moreover, the real-time correlation between ADP data and official BLS figures remains very weak at 0.12, indicating no statistically meaningful relationship. As a result, the ADP report provides limited insight into what the official employment report might have shown had the government not been shut down.ISM Indices: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and services surveys suggest a slowdown in hiring, with both employment components remaining below the neutral 50-point threshold. In September, the employment subindex for the services sector stood at 47.2 points, while the manufacturing employment subindex came in at 45.3 points — both signaling contraction in hiring activity. While the manufacturing employment index shows a moderate correlation (0.6) with employment dynamics, its volatility and discrepancies with actual data limit its predictive reliability. zoom_out_map Chart of U.S. employment change – ADP vs. NFP, source: Bloomberg zoom_out_map ISM employment subindices for the U.S., source: Bloomberg Sentiment Indicators and Predictive Models Conference Board: The gap between the share of respondents who believe that “jobs are plentiful” and those who say they are “hard to get” (known as the labor market differential) is highly correlated with the unemployment rate. This metric has recently declined, signaling a deterioration in consumer sentiment and suggesting possible softening in the labor market over the coming months.Chicago Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago continues to publish its own unemployment rate estimates based on models incorporating both public and private data. According to the latest (not yet officially released) estimates, the unemployment rate stood at 4.34 percent in September — only slightly higher than August’s 4.32 percent. However, the historical accuracy of this model has been limited. zoom_out_map Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate (September 2025), source: chicagofed.org The Labor Market Is Slowing, Not Collapsing While alternative indicators provide some insight into current economic conditions, they cannot fully replace official data, which remain methodologically consistent and historically comparable. The available private data suggest a moderation in hiring momentum rather than a sharp downturn. The U.S. labor market thus appears to be entering a phase of gradual cooling rather than contraction — a scenario that may encourage the Federal Reserve to proceed cautiously with further interest rate cuts in the months ahead. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways USD/JPY reversed from its recent high of 153.28, falling 2.2% as bullish U.S. dollar momentum faded.Political uncertainty in Japan weakened the “Takaichi Trade,” reducing bets on extended monetary easing.The 10-year U.S.-Japan sovereign yield spread broke below key 2.47% support, signalling further downside pressure.Technical indicators point to a short-term bearish setup, with support at 149.05–148.55 and resistance at 151.70. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “USD/JPY: Current JPY weakness is driven by short-term sentiment as it disconnects from US-Japan yields”, published on 9 October 2025.Since our prior report, the USD/JPY has witnessed a minor “momentum crush” as bullish sentiment of the US dollar took a backseat, where the USD/JPY did a residual push up to print an intraday high of 153.28 on 10 October 2025, before it tumbled by 2.2% to hit an intraday low of 149.90 at the time of writing.In addition, the “Takaichi Trade” of shorting the yen in anticipation of a revival of easy monetary policy in Japan has lost traction as Sanae Takaichi, the newly elected leader of the LDP ruling party, may not receive enough parliamentary votes to become Japan’s next prime minister after the LDP’s long-term coalition partner, Komeito withdrew its 26-year partnership with the LDP.Let’s now look at several macro and technical factors that suggest further potential downside in the USD/JPY, at least in the near term.10-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread has (finally) broken below a major support level of 2.47% zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Yield spreads of US Treasury/JGB with major trend of USD/JPY as of 17 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 10-year yield differential between the US Treasury note and JGB has broken below the 2.47% major support with a daily close below it since 8 October 2025 (see Fig. 1)A move away further down from 2.47% is likely to cement a further narrowing of the 10-year US-Japan sovereign bond yield differential, and a similar movement occurred during late December 2024 to mid-April 2025 that triggered a medium-term decline of 10% on the USD/JPY.Implied volatility from JPY options has started to tick higher zoom_out_map Fig. 2: JPY implied volatility as of 7 Oct 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) The implied volatility of JPY measured via FX options has started to increase from a relatively low level of 8.39 printed on 26 September 2025 (almost a 9-month low) to 9.01 on 7 October 2025 (see Fig. 2)Prior similar observations seen from 24 January 2025 to 7 February 2025, where the implied volatility of JPY jumped from 8.69 to 10.59, which thereafter led to a fall of 10% on the USD/JPY.Failure bullish breakout on the USD/JPY zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 17 October 2025 (Source: TradingView) The recent bullish breakout of the USD/JPY above its “Ascending Wedge” range resistance on 7 October 2025 is considered a “failure bullish breakout” as its latest price actions of the USD/JPY have reintegrated back below the aforementioned range resistance at 150.50.These observations suggest that the USD/JPY is likely to revert to its medium-term sideways motion, with the key range support to watch at 146.60 (see Fig. 3).We will now examine its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on USD/JPYPreferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Vulnerable for a bearish break below 20-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY minor trend as of 17 October 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bearish bias in any bounces below 151.70 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 149.75 exposes the next intermediate support zone at 149.05/148.55 in the first step (see Fig. 4).Key elements The hourly MACD trend indicator of the USD/JPY has broken below a key ascending trendline support that has occurred below the centreline, which suggests a potential buildup of a bearish momentum condition.These observations indicate that the 20-day moving average, which is acting as a near-term support at 149.75, is likely to be broken down.The intermediate support zone of 149.05/148.55 is defined by the gap support formed on 6 October 2025 and the 50-day moving average.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 151.70 key short-term resistance invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 152.45. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Lending Concerns Drag Global Equities Lower Most Read: Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Global stock markets, particularly the financial sector, fell sharply after concerns about bank loan quality in the US rattled investors.The source of the worry was the US regional banking sector, which slumped 6% on Thursday. Two smaller banks, Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp, disclosed issues related to bad loans and fraud allegations, respectively. Wall Street analysts compared this to the recent failure of the auto lender First Brands, suggesting a broader problem with credit oversight. This fear spread to Asia, where the main MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%. Japanese banks and insurers, including major names like Mizuho and Mitsubishi UFJ, all saw their shares drop by nearly 3%. As stocks fell, investors rushed for safety, pushing money into government bonds and safe havens.Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets closed sharply lower on Friday, extending steep losses that made it the worst week for the region in months.The blue-chip CSI 300 Index in mainland China fell 2.3% for the day, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2%. Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index dropped 2.5%.The CSI 300 and the Hang Seng recorded their biggest weekly losses since early April, when the initial threats of US President Donald Trump's massive tariffs first shocked global financial markets.Meanwhile, the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Ueda, suggested the bank is still ready to raise interest rates soon if the economic outlook improves.Also, political uncertainty continues in Japan, with the ruling party's efforts to form a new coalition remaining undecided ahead of the prime ministerial vote.European Session - Weekly Gains in Danger as European Stocks Slide European stock markets dropped sharply on Friday, on track for their biggest weekly loss in six weeks, as fears about the financial health of US regional banks spread to lenders across the continent.The main STOXX 600 index for Europe fell by 1.5%. The banking sector was hit hardest, sliding 2.4%, with major banks like Deutsche Bank, Barclays, and BNP Paribas all seeing their shares fall.This panic originated on Wall Street and continued in the Asian session.Separately, the share price of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell 4.6% after US President Donald Trump announced that the price of their popular weight-loss drug would be lowered following swift negotiations.Meanwhile, shares in Spanish bank BBVA jumped 7% after its massive hostile takeover bid for a rival, Sabadell (down 7%), failed to win shareholder support. BBVA immediately announced it would resume rewarding its own shareholders instead.On the FX front, the US dollar continued to weaken on Friday and is headed for its biggest weekly drop in almost three months.The overall dollar index fell slightly by 0.1%, putting it on track for a significant weekly loss.This decline is largely blamed on the extended US government shutdown, which has stopped the release of key economic data, making investors nervous.The Japanese yen gained 0.2% against the dollar, momentarily strengthening past the key 150/USD level for the first time in nearly two weeks. This gain comes as Japan's parliament scheduled a vote for the next Prime Minister on October 21st, per Reuters.Both the euro (up 0.2%) and the British pound (sterling) (up 0.1%) also made small gains against the weaker dollar.Bitcoin's price dropped sharply on Friday, hitting its lowest level since early July. Market participants appear to be trimming exposure due to mounting concerns around tighter regulatory scrutiny.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Friday and are set for a weekly loss of nearly 3%, driven by worries about future supply and demand.The small decline today was triggered by news that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to meet in Hungary soon to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This meeting raises speculation that a peace deal could eventually ease sanctions on Russian oil, which would then add to the global supply.This is a concern because the week's price drop was already fueled by a recent warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which projected a massive supply surplus (too much oil) in 2026. Both Brent crude and US WTI futures fell by about 0.26%, extending the bearish pressure on the market.Gold prices soared to yet another record high on Friday, climbing above the $4,300 per ounce level, putting the metal on track for its biggest weekly gain in over five years.The rush into this "safe-haven" asset was driven by a perfect storm of global uncertainty. Rate cuts bets increased as renewed fears about the stability of the US financial system.For more on the movement of Gold prices, read Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History SaysEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The most important issue for financial markets right now is the unstable relationship between the US and China, particularly ahead of two critical dates.Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet around October 29-31 at the APEC summit in Korea, just before the November 10th deadline when US tariffs on Chinese goods are set to jump significantly if no agreement is reached.Markets are also now watching the US banking sector as concerns were raised around lending practices. These developments are driving overall market sentiment at present.We have more Central Bank speakers on the agenda today as well as US building permits and housing starts data. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the 100 and 200-day MA but has found support at the 9285 handle.Price has bounced at this level but whether this is sustainable or not remains to be seen.The period-14 RSI has broken below into oversold territory. A move back above the 30 level may be a sign that a recovery may be in the offing.Immediate resistance is provided by the 200-day MA resting at 9330. Beyond that we have the 9357 handle before the 100-day MA at 9424.If markets can break below the 9285 handle we may revisit support at the 9223 or potential the 9180 handle.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 17. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 16US stocks fell on Thursday, adding to a week of unstable trading, as new concerns about the quality of bank loans made investors nervous about the overall health of the financial market.The initial market gains, which were driven by another positive forecast for Artificial Intelligence (AI) demand, quickly disappeared after two regional banks, Zions Bancorp (down 13%) and Western Alliance Bancorp (down 11%), announced they had to write off bad loans. This revived old worries about hidden weaknesses in the banking system, coming shortly after the collapse of auto lender Tricolor Holdings had already forced a large write-off at JPMorgan Chase.As investors sought safety, the broader S&P 500 fell 0.6%. Safe-haven assets jumped: Bonds saw strong demand, pushing the yield on 10-year Treasury notes below 4%, and gold climbed to another record high. Even Bitcoin slumped, while a closely watched regional bank fund plunged over 6%.On the positive side, Oracle's stock rose after the company gave an ambitious forecast for its AI infrastructure business.This mirrored the optimism in the chip sector, where Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing extended its rally after projecting stronger demand linked to the AI boom, following a similar bullish outlook from ASML. The volatility is expected to continue with $3.4 trillion in stock options expiring on Friday. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Crypto market shows weak conviction after Friday’s sharp dropWhat if there was no trend in the US Dollar ? DXY OutlookCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView All in all another blockbuster day for safe havens with Gold in particular continuing its strong performance to breach the $4300/oz. The precious metal seems to be unstoppable at present.Rising rate cut bets aided the precious metals run today while weighing on the US Dollar.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 15 – Source: OANDA Labs The US dollar weakened against several major currencies on Thursday, pushing the dollar index lower.As you can see from the chart above, CHF and JPY lead the way today as safe haven currencies benefited from rising uncertainties.The overall dollar index fell by 0.33%. It dropped significantly against the safe-haven Swiss franc, falling 0.49%. The dollar also continued to lose ground against the Japanese yen, falling 0.46% after a public comment by a Japanese official (Shimizu).Meanwhile, the euro hit a one-week high and was up 0.36%.In Australia, the dollar slipped 0.48% after data showed that unemployment hit its highest level in nearly four years, which increases the likelihood that Australia’s central bank will cut interest rates.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Asian session will be a quiet one in terms of data releases.Attention will be on the European session tomorrow where we will get Euro CPI data from September and speeches from two BoE policymakers.The US session remains light with the highlights being a industrial production data release and some Fed Policymaker comments.Markets will likely be watching to see if there will be any fallout from credit concerns as well as developments on the US-China front. Both of these could stoke volatility ahead of the weekend.Safe Trades!Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Advance Most Read: EUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish ContinuationStock markets were mostly up across Asia on Thursday, driven by a strong rebound in the chip sector and a good start to the US earnings season.Japan’s Nikkei index climbed 1.2%, heavily boosted by chip and Artificial Intelligence (AI) related stocks. This momentum increased after Taiwanese chip giant TSMC announced record earnings, and also because political developments raised the chances that pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi would become Japan's next Prime Minister.Even though the announcement came after its market closed, Taiwanese stocks finished the day up 1.4%, hitting a new record.South Korea’s KOSPI index also surged, jumping 2.2% to a record peak, after a high-level official expressed optimism about ongoing talks to finalize a trade deal with the US Similarly, Australia’s main stock index added 0.9% and hit its own record high, a rise fueled by the hope that poor recent job data would encourage the central bank to cut interest rates soon.However, the Chinese markets lagged behind: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.7%, and mainland Chinese stocks were flat, as investors remain cautious about the complicated and uncertain path of trade relations with the US.UK Economy Shows Resilience, Bigger Picture Remains a Concern The UK economy grew slightly in August 2025, expanding by 0.1%, which reversed a small decline in July and met market expectations, but the growth was narrowly focused.The primary driver of this modest expansion was the production sector, which grew by 0.4%, bouncing back after shrinking the month before. This increase was led by strong growth in manufacturing (up 0.7%) and the energy/utilities sector.However, the largest part of the economy, the services sector, showed zero overall growth for the second month in a row. While some areas like administrative support and healthcare saw strong growth, these were completely canceled out by significant drops in other consumer-facing industries like retail/wholesale trade, arts/entertainment, and transportation. Furthermore, the construction sector shrank by 0.3%, mainly because repair and maintenance work decreased.This overall picture suggests the UK economy is struggling to gain solid, broad momentum. With that in mind the OBR is still likely to downgrade its economic assessment in the Autumn, blowing a £25bn hole in the budget relative to the Spring Statement in March.European Session - Nestle Rallies 7.5% European stock markets saw a marginal uptick on Thursday as market participants processed a mix of company earnings, following a week of volatility driven by tariff concerns.The overall STOXX 600 index nudged up 0.06%. The day's movement was characterized by strong gains in the food and beverage sector being balanced out by losses in the travel and leisure sector.The biggest winner was Nestle, the world’s largest packaged food company, whose stock climbed 7.59% after it reported sales growth that was better than expected and announced plans to cut 16,000 jobs.However, not all companies shared this success. French spirits maker Pernod Ricard dipped 0.77% after confirming a previously warned-about 7.6% drop in sales, which it blamed on weak consumer demand and stores reducing inventory in China and the US.In the UK, hotel operator Whitbread fell 7.1% after reporting a drop in half-year profit due to lower food and beverage sales. On the positive side, Franco-German lab equipment company Sartorius and its French unit both saw their shares jump over 9% after releasing positive quarterly results and forecasts.On the FX front, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly on Thursday, continuing its recent slide, as concerns over the trade war between the US and China weighed on sentiment.The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against other currencies, was down 0.16% and heading for a weekly loss.In Europe, the euro climbed 0.12% to a one-week high as traders became confident that French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu would survive two no-confidence votes in parliament, which helps reduce political uncertainty for the currency.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen briefly strengthened before leveling out, as the country's s ruling party began talks with a potential new partner (the Japan Innovation Party) that could help the pro-stimulus candidate Sanae Takaichi secure the Prime Minister position next week.Separately, the Australian dollar slipped 0.36% after new data revealed that unemployment had hit a four-year high in September, increasing the likelihood that Australia's central bank might cut interest rates.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased by about 1% on Thursday, rebounding from earlier losses, after a statement from US President Donald Trump suggested that global supply could tighten.Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised India would stop buying oil from Russia. Since India and China are currently the two largest buyers of Russian crude, a halt by India would remove a significant amount of discounted oil from the market, potentially driving up prices elsewhere.This news caused both Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures to rise by around 1%, with Brent trading at $62.47 a barrel and WTI at $58.85 a barrel.Gold prices soared to yet another record high on Thursday, marking the fifth day in a row of gains, as investors continue to rush toward the metal as a safe investment.This sustained rally is being fueled by multiple sources of global and domestic uncertainty. Spot gold rose to $4,232.39 per ounce, after setting an all-time record of $4,241.77 in the Asian session..For more on the movement of Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the DayEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The most important issue for financial markets right now is the unstable relationship between the US and China, particularly ahead of two critical dates.Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet around October 29-31 at the APEC summit in Korea, just before the November 10th deadline when US tariffs on Chinese goods are set to jump significantly if no agreement is reached.The big unknown is whether China's aggressive move to impose export controls on rare earth materials is a genuine, long-term threat or simply a powerful tactic to gain concessions in the upcoming talks.This step by China has clearly alarmed G7 nations, who are preparing a rare joint statement of protest. While US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted at a longer extension on existing tariffs if tensions ease, the failure to resolve these rare earth controls could lead to a very difficult and volatile few weeks for markets worldwide.Due to the US government shutdown, no key economic data is being released today. Instead, attention will turn to speeches being given by two Federal Reserve officials, Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, later this afternoon (around 3:00 PM CET).Both of these officials are known for favoring a cautious approach, or even cuts, to interest rates, which could put slight downward pressure on the US dollar. As a result, the dollar index could remain close to the 98.50 level today. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken below the 100-day MA.However the most recent four-hour candle has closed as an inverted hammer candlestick which does hint at further upside.The period-14 RSI is trading below the 50 level hinting at bearish momentum. If this breaks back above the 50 mark, we could see the FTSE 100 rally back toward the Tuesday highs around the 9500 mark.Meanwhile a rejection at current price levels could set the FTSE up to retest support at 9357 before the 200-day MA at 9326 comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 16. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Euro weakness stabilizes: EUR/USD’s recent 3.25% drop from its September high has stalled at the key 1.1530 medium-term support level.French political uncertainty eases: The reappointment of Prime Minister Lecornu and reduced sovereign risk premiums have helped calm Eurozone markets.Technical setup remains bullish: Price action forms an “Ascending Triangle” pattern, signaling a potential continuation of the medium-term uptrend.Short-term breakout confirmed: A minor “Double Bottom” bullish breakout above 1.1625 suggests upward momentum toward 1.1690 and 1.1760. The euro has suddenly lost its sparkle ex-post September’s FOMC, after it hit a four-year high of 1.1919 against the US dollar on 17 September 2025. The EUR/USD dropped by 3.25% (high to low) to print an intraday low of 1.1542 on 9 October 2025.This article will look at several key technical/momentum factors to argue that the recent weakness of the EUR/USD is likely a bullish consolidation phase within a medium-term uptrend phase that is still intact since 13 January 2025.Before we jump straight into the technical analysis portion, let’s briefly highlight the main macro drivers that reinforced the recent softness seen in the EUR/USD.Recent rise in Eurozone sovereign risk premium capped the euro's strength zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 10-year yield spread of France sovereign bond/Germany Bund with EUR/USD as of 16 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Political uncertainties in France, the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, triggered higher sovereign risk premia in the Eurozone.The newly appointed French Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, resigned within hours of forming a cabinet, making it the shortest-lived government in modern French history. Also, the French government faces ongoing no-confidence threats and an inability to pass a credible budget.An increase in sovereign risk premia in the Eurozone can be gauged by using the yield spread of the 10-year French sovereign bond over the 10-year Germany Bund. The yield spread has spiked from 0.80% to 0.86% during the period of 16 September 2025 to 7 October 2025, in turn, triggering a slide in the EUR/USD over the same period (see Fig. 1).Interestingly, the 10-year yield spread between the French sovereign bond and the Germany Bund has started to compress to 0.77% as of 16 October 2025 at this time of writing, which suggests that sovereign risk premia in the Eurozone have been reduced as compared to two weeks ago, reinforced by the reappointment of the French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu proposed suspending a law to raise the retirement age in a bid to bring political stability to the country.Let’s now focus on the medium-term technical outlook of the EUR/USDEvolving within an “Ascending Triangle” range configuration since 1 July 2025 zoom_out_map Fig. 2: EUR/USD medium-term & major trends as of 16 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Since hitting its 1 July 2025 high of 1.1830, the price actions of the EUR/USD have traced out “similar swing highs” and “higher swing lows” (depicted by the four grey shaded boxes on the chart).These observations represent a potential bullish consolidation configuration called “Ascending Triangle” that represents a pause in EUR/USD’s impulsive up move sequences within its ongoing medium-term uptrend phase in place since 13 January 2025 low of 1.0178 (see Fig. 2).Also, the daily RSI momentum indicator of the EUR/USD has managed to stage a rebound after a retest of its key ascending support on 9 October 2025, which supports the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase of the EUR/USD.We will now examine its latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory and key technical levels to watch on the EUR/USD.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Minor “Double Bottom” bullish breakout zoom_out_map Fig. 3: EUR/USD minor trend as of 16 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Bullish bias with key short-term pivotal support at 1.1590 for the EUR/USD. A clearance above 1.1690 sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 1.1760 (see Fig. 3).Key elements The price actions of the EUR/USD have staged a bullish breakout on Wednesday, 15 October 2025, from the neckline resistance of a minor “Double Bottom” (depicted in the two green boxes shown in Fig. 3), now turns into an intermediate pull-back support at 1.1625The 1.1690 intermediate resistance confluences closely with the intersection point of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the EUR/USD has reached its overbought region, but no bearish divergence condition has been flashed out. These observations suggest a minor pull-back in the EUR/USD rather than a bearish reversal scenario.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 1.1590 key short-term support invalidates the minor bullish breakout scenario on the EUR/USD for a retest on the 1.1530 key medium-term pivotal support. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 15An uneasy sentiment still dominates markets, even as equities somehow manage to close higher. The opening session continued the positive flows coming from Europe but at some point buyers vanished into the fog the moment selling pressure hit. Thin trading conditions are amplifying the swings, with many participants on edge for the latest headline.US-China trade angst remains front and center, with top officials on both sides offering a mix of fiery remarks and conciliatory tones. It is part of the Trump's way of doing to publish harsh comments, never failing to scare markets and TACO it out – Bulls are hoping for another TACO for now at least.Meanwhile, metals continue to thrive on the backdrop of uncertainty. Gold surged to a new record at $4,218, while Silver consolidates at its highs — clear signs that flows into metals remain robust even as equity traders struggle to find their footing. Read More:North American mid-week Market update – US-China trade tensions are backSilver (XAG/USD) squeeze shakes market participantsWhat if there was no trend in the US Dollar ? DXY OutlookCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Many assets remain mixed, but overall, the current US-China trade seems to be located in selling Cryptos, and buying gold.For the rest, equities and currencies are very mixed (except for the USD which is also getting rejected from its highs.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 15 – Source: OANDA Labs Counterintuitively, the GBP is finishing on top of majors today, propulsed by some technical "bad lows" after the UK's disappointing jobs report.Nonetheless, the pound seems to disregard the bearish outlook – Confusing flows, but might provide some opportunities? It was getting sold off heavily heading into the number so it could be some buy-the-bad-news flows.North American currencies have struggled on the other side of the daily spectrum, hurt by the still absent US-Canada deal news, and the US-China scare.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not over yet for AUD traders who will have to monitor the highly anticipated Australian Employment Data, releasing this evening at 20:30 EDT. With the AUD having performed well, expectations are high.The early birds will assist to the UK GDP and Production data (2:00 A.M. ET), which will provide insight into British economic momentum.In the absence of BLS data, markets should only see the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey which should help at least a bit from the huge absence of US Data.To compliment the data, Markets are awaiting a wave of Central Bank comments:US Fed: A host of officials speak throughout the day, including Barr, Waller, Bowman, and Kashkari, starting at 9:00 A.M. ET.Canada BoC: Keep a close eye on Governor Macklem's economic outlook speech at 1:30 P.M. ET.Europe: We also hear from ECB's Lagarde and BoE's Mann.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.A strong US dollar and resilient North American equity markets — both on impressive runs since early October — finally met their first major challenge towards the end of last week: the return of US-China trade tensions. The spark came from a Trump Truth Social post last Friday that reignited fears of a new trade war, triggering a sharp risk-off move across markets. China has tightened restrictions on rare earth exports, a move that rattled Washington and recreated what seemed to be a new challenge to the American dominance on global trade. On that aspect, President Trump actually made a few repetitions of BRICS being an attack on the dollar. Read More:US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowSilver (XAG/USD) squeeze shakes market participants Over the weekend and into Monday, sentiment stabilized thanks to a series of calming remarks from the President in another post and the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, whose conciliatory tone was welcomed by investors and helped equities rebound despite volatile opens on Monday and Tuesday.Still, market participants remain on edge. The EU has called on the US to coordinate a joint response to Beijing’s latest trade maneuvers — a sign that the geopolitical and economic crosscurrents fueling volatility may only just be warming up.Markets are also still awaiting for concrete news regarding the US-Canada deal, mentioned to have been in the middle of discussions.Both Trump and Canadian PM Mark Carney have been preoccupied by the Peace summit for the Middle East throughout the end of last week.FYI, the Fed Beige Book just got published – It's not a big market mover with nothing alarming noted. It is still a very nice read, you can access it right here. Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Not a single Stock index has managed to withhold the trade tensions scare.Not only restraining economic activity, such tensions come to challenge the globalized world as we know it which never helps sentiment.This also comes as many analysts start to show concerns on elevated equity valuations (which haven't seen much retracement since June), further amplifying the tense feeling in Equities.Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar has been forming what resembles a higher timeframe range, reacting well to the RSI extremes.A further, detailed analysis of the Dollar has been published on our site this morning, which I gladly invite you to discover. Read More: What if there was no trend in the US Dollar ? DXY OutlookUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, October 15, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The US Dollar had taken quite the lead on its major counterparts, but the latest currency risk-off put the CHF and the JPY on the front lines (only since Friday). Keep track of how the current narrative shapes FX flows looking forward.Things have been and are expected to stay volatile.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, October 15, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie has been looking for redemption, appreciating from the rise of its neighbor brother, but consequently also getting dragged down throughout the end of last week.Keep an eye on any news regarding the US-Canada trade deal, which largely is the biggest X factor for the struggling currency.This would also be of great help to the Canadian Economy which has been struggling for a while and definitely not helped by the tariffs.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USDCAD 4H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView A lack of convicting fundamentals from Canada keep attracting buyers which are largely enjoying the upward trendline.This one will also be the one to watch for any correction, as the price action now holds largely above 1.40.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levels1.40 to 1.4050 Psychological resistance (currently testing)Tuesday 14 Oct highs 1.40784Daily Resistance 1.41 - 1.4150April Pivot 1.4250Support LevelsUpward trendline line & MA 50 1.3910 to 1.39201.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivotMajor Daily Pivot 1.391.38 Handle +/- 150 pips1.3550 Main 2025 Support You can also check out our very recent in-detail analysis of the North American pair right here:USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Now midway through the third week of the US government shutdown, Markets have been getting pretty hungry for US data.The Monthly US CPI will be getting released on October 24th in what was an emergency gathering of a few BLS workers to work on the essential release.There is still no news on the Jobs data, hence Markets will be waiting for other reports such as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, which gathers much more importance now.For the rest, focus on key speeches from Fed members (the upcoming cut is well-priced in after Powell's speech from yesterday). For CAD traders, don't forget to check the Macklem remarks at 13:30 tomorrow, and the Housing Starts on Friday morning 8:30.How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdownSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Renewing all-time highs earlier today, around ~$4,218, gold (XAU/USD) has extended gains further so far in this week’s trading.With 2025 representing the best yearly performance in the yellow metals’ history by some margin, traders are left with one burning question:When will the current rally end?Let’s break down some of the major macroeconomic themes at play within precious metal markets, alongside some technical analysis and price targets.Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 15/10/2025 Breaking above $4,200 earlier today, gold now trades over 56% higher since the beginning of 2025, with an increase from $3,500 to $4,000 only taking thirty-six daysActing as the primary catalyst for recent upside, markets are increasingly sure of back-to-back Federal Reserve rate cuts in the upcoming decision, with some sources estimating a ~97% probabilityOtherwise, renewed US-China tariffs announced on Friday by President Trump are adding a safe-haven demand premium to metal pricing Read previous coverage: Gold (XAU/USD) set to challenge $4,000 as prices renew all-time highs in today’s session - Potential targets and price forecast zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) yearly performance 1941-2025, OANDA, TradingView, 15/10/2025 Gold breaks above $4,200 with no signs of slowing down While some thought the current rally must retrace, it would seem that markets need little excuse to push metal pricing higherBenefiting from a perfect storm of macroeconomic themes, it would seem that there is no shortage of tailwind for the current gold rally.With markets remaining as bullish as ever, let’s discuss some of the recent macroeconomic developments that are affecting metal pricing: Renewed ‘tit-for-tat’ US-China tariffs: While there is a long history of trade relations between the United States and China, recent developments leave American levies on Chinese imports at 130%, effective November 1st. zoom_out_map @realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, 10/10/2025 Using China’s proposed export controls as justification, especially regarding rare earth minerals, Trump has somewhat predictably responded in kind with an unprecedented 100% tariff, bringing the total levy on Chinese imports to 130%.With Trump’s infamous ‘liberation day’ relatively fresh in collective memory, we can expect further global trade disruption to boost precious metal pricing, as seen since Friday’s announcement. Markets certain of consecutive Fed rate cuts: Having expanded on this in full as part of previous coverage, I’ll be brief: markets are increasingly expecting a 25 basis point cut in the Federal Reserve’s October decision. As a non-yielding asset, this directly benefits gold pricing, especially when considering falling yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 15/10/2025 While a ~97% probability of a 25 basis point is a rare level of conviction by the market, some rationale behind this confidence can be offered when considering Jerome Powell’s comments on the US labour market yesterday: Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks Jerome Powell, speaking at a conference in Philadelphia, 14/10/2025 Not only do these comments shift the focus away from inflation, but considering the context of a poor ADP payrolls and missing NFP data, a dovish picture continues to develop.At the time of writing, the Federal Reserve is expected to meet in fourteen days' time, on October 29th. Ongoing US government shutdown: To finish, an honourable mention must be made to the current US government shutdown, while admittedly old news, it continues to boost gold pricing by way of increased safe-haven flows. Now ongoing for fifteen days, and especially considering the complications to important government data releases, the longer the shutdown continues, the greater the damage to the US economy will increase exponentially.Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 15/10/2025 Having touched base on the fundamentals, let’s shift our focus to the technicals, starting with the weekly and finishing with the daily.Gold (XAU/USD): Weekly (W) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) W, OANDA, TradingView, 15/10/2025 With recent price action virtually parabolic, pricing continues in one direction, to the behest of gold bulls.Currently, volatility remains high, with readings from the ATR approaching five-month highs.From a classical technical standpoint, the market is confirming a sustained long-term bullish move, with the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs all offering support below current price action.It should be noted, however, that prices are likely to retrace somewhat in the near future, although no one can be certain exactly when.As such, the RSI currently trades at its highest level since August 2019, firmly in ‘overbought’ territory. Many will be looking for prices to retreat to get long. Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target 1: 61.8% Fib: $4,317Price target 2: 50.0% Fib: $4,410Support 1: Trendline: $4,040Support 2: Psychological level: $4,000 Read more precious metal coverage from MarketPulse: Silver (XAG/USD) squeeze shakes market participantsGold (XAU/USD): Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) D1, OANDA, TradingView, 06/10/2025 With the recent explosive move in metal pricing, it’s no surprise that daily price action continues to trade at the top boundary of the 20-period Bollinger bands. Price targets and support/resistance levels:Price target 1: 78.6% Fib: $4,240Support 1: Trendline: $4,079Support 2: Psychological key level: $4,000Support 3: 20-period SMA: $3,889 Following simple technical analysis theory, this suggests that a retracement towards the midline is inevitable, only being a matter of when.This goes double when considering that the daily price action has been deemed overbought by the 14-period RSI since early September.For now, we can consider a retracement towards $4,000 as a potential entry point, with ample support available below.As traders, we know we shouldn’t try to catch a falling knife, and the same would apply for one shot out of a cannon - some food for thought. Read more coverage from today’s session: EUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish Continuation Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Extends Recovery Most Read: USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?Japanese stocks bounced back strongly on Wednesday, with the benchmark Nikkei index recovering from its biggest one-day loss since April, as investors bought back into the technology sector.The Nikkei 225 Index surged 1.8% to close at 47,672.67, making up for a significant part of its 2.6% drop from the previous session. The broader Topix index also climbed 1.6%. Leading the recovery were major tech stocks that had been hit hard by worries over the China-U.S. trade dispute.SoftBank Group, a key investor in chips and AI, rose 5.1%, while chip equipment maker Advantest gained 2.2%. In related news, the European Union is reportedly considering a bold plan to require Chinese companies to share their technology with European firms in exchange for local market access.Domestically, there is ongoing political uncertainty in Japan, with leaders of the main opposition parties meeting on Wednesday to discuss uniting behind a single candidate for the position of Prime Minister.Chinese CPI Underwhelms China's consumer prices continued to fall in September 2025, recording a year-over-year drop of 0.3%, which was slightly less severe than the previous month but worse than what analysts had expected.The main reason for the overall price decline was a steep drop in food prices, which fell at their fastest rate since January 2024. This was largely driven by an oversupply of pork, lower production costs, and weak consumer demand ahead of the Golden Week holidays.In contrast to food, prices for goods and services excluding food and energy (known as core inflation) actually rose by 1.0% year-over-year. This was the highest core inflation reading in 19 months, suggesting that underlying consumer demand is slowly starting to pick up, possibly due to government incentives encouraging people to trade in old consumer goods. Categories like healthcare and clothing saw price increases, and the cost of transportation fell at a slower pace than before.On a month-to-month basis, prices barely moved, increasing just 0.1%.Even though the current economic data suggests the central bank of China (People's Bank of China) should lower interest rates or take other steps to boost the economy (monetary easing), it might decide to wait. The bank could be saving those options in case the planned meeting between President Xi and President Trump does not go well, allowing them to use the easing measures as an emergency economic boost afterward.European Session - Luxury Sector Boosts European Stocks European stock markets climbed on Wednesday, largely driven by a massive rally in luxury brands after French giant LVMH delivered surprisingly positive sales results, calming fears about the health of major companies amidst global trade and growth concerns.Luxury group LVMH saw its shares soar over 12%, heading for their best daily performance in almost two years after reporting better-than-expected sales in the third quarter, fueled by stronger demand in China.This good news immediately boosted other luxury stocks, with companies like Hermes and Richemont seeing gains between 2.7% and 7.2%. This surge caused the French stock index to jump 2.5%, while the broader STOXX 600 index for all of Europe rose 0.8%.Adding to the positive mood, chip-equipment supplier ASML rose 3.5% after its forecasts for quarterly orders and sales beat market expectations.However, not all stocks did well: German copper producer Aurubis fell 7.1% because its majority owner, Salzgitter, launched a large bond that can be exchanged for Aurubis shares, which often puts downward pressure on a stock's price.On the FX front, The US dollar remained mostly unchanged early on Wednesday, stabilizing after a slight drop in the previous session.The dollar was steady against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, holding its value after losing ground to both currencies on Tuesday.The euro also held firm at 1.1606 following its own small gain yesterday.Among commodity-linked currencies, the Australian dollar ticked up slightly by 0.1%, attempting to recover after hitting its lowest point since late August on Tuesday.In contrast, the New Zealand dollar continued its slight decline, easing another 0.1% after falling to a six-month low yesterday.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped slightly on Wednesday, continuing a downward trend, as worries about too much supply in the global market overshadowed demand concerns tied to the US-China trade conflict.The main pressure came from a warning issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA stated that the global oil market could see a large supply surplus—as much as 4 million bpd next year. This is a bigger excess than previously expected, caused by oil-producing nations (OPEC+ and rivals) increasing their output while global demand remains slow.Both major oil benchmarks, Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), saw small dips, with Brent trading at $62.30 per barrel. Both contracts had already hit five-month lows in the previous trading session.Gold prices surged again on Wednesday, climbing to a new all-time high just above the $4,200 per ounce mark.Renewed concerns about the trade conflict between the U.S. and China has given haven demand a fresh boost.For more on the movement of Gold prices, read Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the DayEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet before market participants' attention turns to US Earnings data and a host of Central Bank speakers who will take the spotlight.Lastly, attention will be on the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," a key report that gathers informal information on the US economy across its regions, because it strongly influences the Fed's decisions on interest rates.The Beige Book may carry more weight at the moment given the US government shutdown and lack of data available, especially labor data. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 did rise toward the resistance level around 9500.However, the index failed to break higher and is experiencing a pullback this morning.The bullish structure will remain intact as long as the FTSE 100 is able to hold above the swing low at 9412 and the 100-day MA resting at 9406.A hold above this key confluence zone could be the start of the next leg higher.A break of this zone though open up the Index to further downside.Immediate resistance rests around the 9500 handle before the swing high at 9590 comes into focus.On the downside, support rests at 9406 before the 9357 and 9311 handles become areas of interest.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 15. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The Hang Seng Index remains in a medium-term uptrend, despite a recent 9% pullback triggered by renewed US-China trade tensions.China’s core CPI rose to a 19-month high of 1% in September 2025, easing deflation fears and boosting market confidence.Technical indicators show bullish momentum, with key short-term support at 25,140 and upside resistance near 27,500.A sustained yuan appreciation continues to underpin Hong Kong’s equity market recovery. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior publication, “Hang Seng Index Technical: Bullish consolidation above 26,200 on China housing recovery”, published on 15 September 2025.The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have staged the expected bullish movement and rallied by 4.25% from 15 September 2025, surpassing the 26,940 resistance highlighted in our previous report, and hit an intraday high of 27,401 on 2 October 2025 (just whisker away from a major resistance of 27,500).Thereafter, the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index tumbled by 9% (high to low) from 2 October 2025 to print an intraday low of 24,918 on Friday, 10 October 2025, due to renewed trade tensions between the US and China.Let’s now examine the key macro factors that are likely to support the continuation of the medium-term bullish trends in the China and Hong Kong stock markets since April 2025 (ex-post US “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement).China's core CPI continues to recover, reducing the risk of a deflationary spiral Fig. 1: China CPI, Core CPI & PPI as of Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) China’s headline CPI prices dropped by 0.3% y/y in September 2025, steeper than the consensus estimates of a 0.1% decline but slightly less than a 0.4% drop in August 2025.However, China’s core CPI inflation rate (stripping out food and energy) has continued to increase; it rose by 1% year-over-year (y/y) in September 2025, from 0.9% in August 2025, marking the highest reading in 19 months (see Fig. 1).Additionally, the deceleration in China’s producer prices (PPI) has begun to slow, as they fell 2.3% year-over-year (y/y) in September 2025, easing from a 2.9% drop in August 2025, in line with consensus estimates, marking the mildest contraction since February 2025.These latest inflationary data prints have reduced the risk of a deflationary spiral in the Chinese economy; in turn, this may see an uptick in consumer confidence in Q4 2025, which can trigger a positive feedback loop back into the China and Hong Kong stock markets.Now, let's turn our attention to decipher the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory, key levels, and elements to watch on the Hang Kong 33 CFD Index from a technical analysis perspective. Hong Kong 33 CFD Index minor trend as of 15 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: Hong Kong 33 CFD Index medium-term & major trends as of 15 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bullish reversal at gap support Tuesday, 14 October 2025’s minor corrective decline of 2.9% (high to low) has stalled and reversed right at the gap support formed at the start of Monday’s 13 October 2025 Asia session.Bullish bias above 25,140 key short-term pivotal support and a clearance above the 25,860/26,060 (upside trigger level) sees the next intermediate resistance coming in at 26,935 before a test on the 27,500 major resistance (see Fig. 2).Key elements The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has staged a bullish momentum breakout condition on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, US session (see Fig. 2).The major uptrend phase of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index has been in place since 22 January 2024 low remaining intact, supported by a steady appreciation of the offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar (see Fig. 3)The major resistance of the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index stands at 27,860, defined by the major descending trendline from the 29 January 2018 all-time high, and the upper boundary of a major ascending channel from the 22 January 2024 low.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 25,140 key short-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario on the Hong Kong 33 CFD Index for the continuation of the corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 24,820 and 24,260. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 14Market sentiment has been yo-yoing since Friday’s turmoil, with investors struggling to find stable footing after the week’s chaotic end.While equities appear to have found an intermediate bottom, the price action remains uncertain, reflecting caution and the price action in risk-assets is now much more open compared to the prior up-only trend.Every US-China headline is being closely dissected, the latest being this Axios update, which reignited some anxiety over the increasingly fragile trade relationship between the two global leaders.The overall ambiance is one of hesitation — a fitting tone for what has been a volatile year.That said, Powell’s dovish tone around the mid-session did help restore confidence, reinforcing expectations for another rate cut by month-end.Add to that a wave of dip-buying and some further downplaying comments from USTR Greer, and markets managed to rebound convincingly – At least from their terrible daily open.The Dow closed higher on the session, while the Russell 2000 — performing particularly better in lower rate conditions— broke new records, clearly enjoying the renewed risk-on momentum. Russell 2000 Futures, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowThe Powell/TACO combo lifts Wall Street from early lossesUSD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The scale of changes to all assets in today's session is fairly low, but don't let that fool you:Volatility was extremely elevated today, particularly when looking at the switch between the Asia session risk-off to the more bullish/positive sentiment that arrived after the US Open (around 10:00 A.M).To give yourself a perspective, take a close look to the movements in Ethereum (ETH).Almost everything mean-reverted as some point today, marking further hesitation to the ongoing themes and narratives.Expect volatility yet again. Read More:UK labor report gives pound a reality check: What's next for GBPWTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againA picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, October 14 – Source: OANDA Labs Risk-off currencies dominated the charts today, while the Euro enjoyed some of the US Dollar weakness that came back.Apart from that, nothing much to note from FX markets that are awaiting any particular change.Some further weakness in Antipodeans (AUD, NZD) is to denote in the past few sessions, hurt by the worsening sentiment particularly surrounding Chinese trade.Keep an eye on this for any potential trends forming.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not entirely over, particularly for APAC traders awaiting for Chinese inflation data: Both CPI and PPI releasing at 21:30 tonight.This should have a strong impact on the Antipodeans which haven't liked all the US-China headlines so much.With the BLS releases still offline, traders will look to alternative indicators for signs of U.S. economic momentum — and today’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey takes center stage.How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdown Consensus points to a mild rebound (-1.8 vs -8.7 prior), and any upside surprise could lift sentiment on the U.S. outlook.Europe will start the western session with Industrial Production and several ECB and BoE speeches, while the U.S. afternoon will be packed with Fed commentary and the Beige Book release.Later in the day, attention shifts to Australia’s employment data, which could drive AUD volatility further if the job market shows further cooling – The last piece wasn't an optimal surprise for AUD bulls.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Today marked the first trading day of the week for many North American traders after Columbus Day for the US and the Canadian Thanksgiving — and the session opened with what felt like a long-weekend hangover.Overnight markets had reacted sharply to China’s condemnations regarding the escalating US-China trade tensions, notably hurting Oil markets even further.Despite Trump’s reassuring comments on Sunday, which helped risk assets rebound over the weekend and led to a bullish Monday session, sentiment reversed during the Asia session leading to a scary opening Bell. Major indices gapped down, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.2% and cryptocurrencies also taking another hit after last week’s selloff. Sentiment quickly shifted mid-morning after the rough open. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer downplayed some of the recent rhetoric between the two nations, triggering a rebound just 20 minutes after the open that carried momentum throughout the session. By midday, all four major US indices had turned positive, erasing their early losses. 15M Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the impressive rebound right after the open taking all indices to their weekly highs, there is are ongoing selloff waves in the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 to keep some eyes on. Nasdaq is not really reacting much for now and I am not spotting any headlines. The real bullish catalysts came around mid-day from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose dovish remarks at the National Association for Business Economics meeting brought further bullish momentum. Powell’s comments raised questions about whether the Fed had early insights into the NFP data, as he emphasized that further labor market softening could justify additional easing.His tone cemented expectations for another rate cut by month-end, reinforcing the ongoing theme of things not being so bad after all despite the US-China trade scare.You can access his latest speech right here.Still, the price action is looking more rangebound with the recent swings rather than back to fully bullish – Let's take a closer look to the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. US Equity heatmap – October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:WTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up againUK labor report gives pound a reality check: What's next for GBPUS-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand nowUS Index analysis and levels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500Dow Jones 4H Chart Dow Jones 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones led an impressive rebound today, lifted by decent earnings and a easier-path ahead when turning to Powell's latest comments.A few things to look going forward:A downward topline has put a strong stop to the ongoing bullish actionBulls will have to break above the Monday highs to relaunch a fully bullish price actionSellers will also have to break below the daily lows to relaunch take controlIn the meantime, the technical outlook being mixed, a consolidation period would have high probability of taking place – At least until the market knows more on the US-China situation.Dow Jones technical levels of interestResistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 47,105Daily highs to break with topline 46,560ATH Resistance Zone 47,000 to 47,160 (+/- 150 pts)post-FOMC highs resistance zone around 46,400 (immediately testing)Support LevelsAugust ATH Immediate Pivot 45,650 to 45,750Daily session lows at 45,490Friday lows at 45,18945,000 psychological level44,400 to 44,500 Main SupportNasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Tech-Heavy index hasn't rebounded as strongly as its peers today on a relative change and is finding itself in a mixed technical environment.It is the second time that sellers appear at the key Momentum pivot around 24,800 showing how undecisive the price action is.Keep an eye on struggling names in tech like Nvidia: If they come back from here, Nasdaq should follow suit.If the big names keep getting offered, ther path ahead might be a bit more grim.Nasdaq technical levels of interestResistance Levelscurrent ATH 25,2241.618 Fib-Extension resistance between 25,200 and 25,300Momentum Pivot 24,750 to 24,800Monday highs and 4H MA 50 24,890Support LevelsEnd September Support and MA 200 24,300 (morning rebound)Friday lows 24,016August 12 ATH zone turning support (23,950 to 24,020)23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart S&P 500 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView Similarly as the Nasdaq, sellers have appeared around the momentum pivot and the overall action might not be as bullish as it was the past few months – Keep an eye on sentiment.A pattern that emerges is the ongoing break-retest action of the main May upward channel – short term technicals are looking more neutral than anything for now.The price action will be interesting for the time to come, expect volatility.S&P 500 Trading Levels:Resistance Levels6,774 (current All Time-Highs)Key current Resistance 6,745 to 6,760Key Pivot Zone 6,670 to 6,700potential resistance (1.618 fib - 6,790 to 6,800)Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Key SupportFOMC and daily lows 6,5626,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (MA 200 Confluence)6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Eyes Acceptance Above $4100/oz on US-China Trade War Fears, Up 2% on the DayThe loonie has recovered in the US session after starting the day on the back foot. The move was more driven by the US dollar than any developments on the side of the Canadian Dollar.The loonie has come under pressure in recent days as oil prices have also retreated to fresh lows. When it comes to USD/CAD, the loonies weakness coincided with a rally for the US Dollar which has defied the US Government shutdown and US-China tensions to leave the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering near recent highs.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/CAD has broken the channel which had help price over for just over two months. This sets up USD/CAD for a potential 280 pip move.The medium-term outlook does look positive for USD/CAD as price has broken above the psychological 1.4000 handle and the 200-day MA. This is the first time USD/CAD trades above the 200-day MA since April 10, 2025. Funny enough this also coincided with USD/CAD breaking below the 1.4000 handle as is the case with the break above this time around.This makes the 200-day MA key for me and thus if we are to see the bullish move continue, price needs to remain above the 200-day MA if we get any pullback in price.USD/CAD Daily Chart, October 14, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Dropping down to the four-hour chart and you can see that we have just had a bearish engulfing candle close.Together with the daily hovering near overbought territory (it was in overbought territory when USD/CAD was at its daily high) could lead to a slightly deeper pullback.If this does materialize, the swing low at 1.39840 is very close to the 200-day MA on the daily timeframe, which rests aroundThus a hold above this level may be the sign for those would be bulls looking to get involved.USD/CAD Four-Hour Chart, October 14, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Economic Data Ahead The US Government shutdown remains in effect and thus data from a US perspective remains out of reach. There is also a lack of high impact data from Canada this week with a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem the highlight.This could leave the technicals as a major driver for price moves while trade war developments between the US and China will also play a role.Next week is much more interesting. We get the releases of key inflation data from the US & Canada. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Client Sentiment Data - USD/CAD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on USDCAD with 75% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means USD/CAD prices could rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.