EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Manufacturing PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data isn't going to change anything at this point, so the market reaction will likely be muted. We are currently in a risk-on sentiment triggered by US-Iran deal optimism after Trump suggested yesterday in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. The mood then improved further when the Iranian President said that they are ready to end the war but want guarantees. Finally, in the APAC session, Trump said that Iran doesn't even have to make a deal with the US for him to end the war as the US would leave as soon as it meets all the objectives. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The ADP is expected at 40K vs 63K prior. I don't expect the market to care much about the data now that the focus switched to a potential deal. In fact, if we do get a deal, we might still get some weak data for a couple of months but conditions will then start to improve. If the US-Iran war escalates, on the other hand, the weak data will just exacerbate growth fears.The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.5% vs -0.2% prior, while the Ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.0% prior, The more important Retail Control M/M figure is expected at 0.3% vs 0.3%. Retail Sales is generally a market-moving report but the reaction are almost always faded because it's a volatile data set. Moreover, note that this is February data, so it's old news now and the market will just ignore it.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.5 vs. 52.4 prior. The S&P Global US Flash PMIs signalled an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, according to the agency. The Flash Manufacturing PMI wasn't impacted as much as the Services PMI though. We can expect to see a weaker ISM employment index and a very strong prices index.Lastly, we have Trump addressing the nation at 21:00 ET/01:00 GMT giving an "important" update on Iran. The only thing that scares me a little here is that it's going to be after market hours. He usually delivers good news during market hours.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS10:30 GMT/06:30 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)13:05 GMT/09:05 ET - Fed's Musalem (hawkish - non voter)13:10 GMT/09:10 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The dollar fell off yesterday amid a marked improvement in the risk mood, with talks of US president Trump looking to wrap up the war in Iran and declaring "victory" - whatever that may mean.It was enough to keep stocks buoyed alongside arguably some month-end and quarter-end rebalancing. As for the dollar, it dropped off across the board and that's leaving traders in a bit of a bind to start April trading.Trump will be due to address the nation later at night today and is set to "provide an important update on Iran". Given that he has already reached his pain threshold on markets with regards to the war, we may yet see him call for an end to the conflict. That might raise questions about what the last month has been about, given the lack of any meaningful progress in pressuring Iran on a nuclear deal.For markets, it's all about the Strait of Hormuz. The US pulling back might help to lift risk sentiment only provided that it leads to the reopening of the strait. It's all down to Iran now in making that call and whether they want to give up such leverage.Circling back to the expiries, the ones for EUR/USD don't tie to any technical significance. But amid a slightly softer dollar now, the expiries could act alongside offers in limiting price action in European morning trade at least. That as we wait on Trump's address, which is scheduled for 0100 GMT later.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It is a bit of a tricky one as one can argue that investors were feeling more optimistic about the US-Iran conflict. But at the same time, I don't want to say it but month-end and quarter-end shenanigans might also be a factor in exacerbating the moves from overnight trading.The S&P 500 clocked in 2.9% gains yesterday, which was the biggest jump since May last year. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq posted 3.8% gains and that was the best daily move higher since May last year as well.After having been beaten down quite badly since last week amid a break of key technical levels, was the latest bounce yesterday a game changer? It depends.If there's anything the Covid pandemic taught us is that sentiment can be bad and yet, the stock market can rally. That was the case as equities bottomed out in March 2020 before picking up in April 2020 and I think we can all agree that we never looked back after that.This time around, it seems that there is a converging view that US president Trump is going to put a stop to the war sooner rather than later. We've hit his pain threshold in markets surely and even if he didn't exactly get the outcome he wanted from Iran, he will still try to frame this all as a "win" before taking a step back.At this stage, I think he knows very well that he can't really and truly win the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. And the longer this status quo carries on, the worse it will be for markets.The big question is what will happen to passage along the strait once the US pulls back? Does Iran continue to hold some restrictions to maintain leverage? Or are we going to see normality slowly resume? That remains the biggest caveat.Going back to US stocks, the bounce yesterday was encouraging and could be a key signal of a major sentiment shift. However, it still lacks a meaningful breakthrough on the charts.While it does mark a major turn from the downside momentum from the middle of March, the neckline break around the 6,525-50 region is still somewhat holding. And that will be the key area in determining whether or not the latest bounce has more going for it. That before a potential test up against the 200-day moving average (blue line) just above 6,600.Dip buyers might be starting to feel a bit more bold. But without a key break on the charts in the levels outlined above, the downside momentum is still the one very much favoured. That especially if the US-Iran conflict continues to drag on for another week or two before any real progress in ending.Looking to the seasonal factor, April tends to be quite a good month for US stocks but for some hiccup in recent years.It is the third best month for the S&P 500 index over the past two decades. But amid a time period where headline risks and geopolitical tensions are acting as the biggest drivers in trading sentiment, any seasonal push and pull will have to take a backseat. So, just keep that in mind.For me, I'd be eyeing the technicals very closely now in trying to get a better sense of the bounce from yesterday. That would be the best tell of market sentiment amid the mix of headlines that we will continue to see over the next few days/weeks.But even if it would seem that US stocks might look to turn a corner, just be wary that headline risks remain the biggest threat to derail any recovery. That and the fact that nothing changes for markets until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

4 Key market signals show deep Hormuz disruption despite mixed MSM headlinesChina PMI slows to 50.8 as cost pressures hit two-year highUAE push to reopen Hormuz raises prospect of U.S.-Gulf coalition. What's next to come?PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9025, CNY strongest since 25 MarchUAE pushes to reopen Hormuz by force, raising risk of wider warTankan recap - Japan firms resilient now but warn of worsening outlook aheadJapan PMI slows to 51.6 as cost pressures rise and outlook weakensKorea triggers sidecar halt (program trades) as KOSPI futures jump 5% on global rallyAnother tanker hit in the Gulf, north of Doha (Qatar)Bank of Japan Tankan hits highest since 2021, but outlook softens and profits seen fallingRecap - Trump says U.S. could end Iran war in weeks without requiring dealAustralian government offers tax relief and credit support for businesses hit by Iran warAustralia manufacturing PMI falls to 49.8 as costs surge on Middle East shockTrump talks up U.S. exit from Iran within weeks as deal prospects emerge. Believable?US-backed firm acquires Congo cobalt miner in strategic win over ChinaNew Zealand February building permits +2.7% m/m (prior +1.9%)UK increases minimum wage to 10.85 GBP. A 1500GBP boost for more than 200K young workersUS deploys third aircraft carrier to Middle East as Iran tensions persistHow to pocket $39 million? Easy, just start with $4 billion. Allbirds horror story.Major US stock indices have their best day since May 2025, but close lower for the monthOpenAI lands record $122 billion raise ahead of expected blockbuster IPO. $852bn valuationinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: War optimism dominates marketsIn brief:Oil edges higher amid ongoing Middle East tensions and mixed signals Trump signals imminent U.S. withdrawal (2–3 weeks), no deal required UAE moves closer to direct military involvement in Hormuz Fresh attacks highlight ongoing escalation risks across Gulf infrastructure Japan Tankan solid but cautious; China PMI expansion slows with rising cost pressures FX rangebound, gold steady after prior rally Focus shifts to Fed speakers and Trump’s prime-time addressOil prices ticked modestly higher, navigating a complex mix of geopolitical escalation and conflicting signals around the trajectory of the Iran conflict.On the policy front, U.S. President Donald Trump struck a notably dovish tone on the duration of the war, stating the United States could withdraw “within two to three weeks” and emphasising that a deal with Iran is not required to end military operations. The comments reinforce a growing “mission completion” narrative from Washington, suggesting the administration may be preparing for a near-term exit despite the absence of a formal agreement.However, developments on the ground continue to point to sustained tension. The United Arab Emirates is reportedly preparing to support efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, a significant shift that would mark the first direct combat role by a Gulf state in the conflict. This underscores a hardening regional stance and raises the risk of broader escalation.At the same time, hostilities remain active. Reports of strikes continue to filter through, including an attack on an oil tanker near Doha and a drone strike targeting fuel infrastructure at Kuwait International Airport, reinforcing the fragility of energy supply routes and the persistent risk premium embedded in crude markets.On the data front, Japan’s Tankan survey showed improving business sentiment, with large manufacturers at their strongest levels since 2021, though forward-looking indicators softened and profit expectations declined. In China, manufacturing PMI eased to 50.8 from 52.1, marking a fourth consecutive month of expansion but with slowing momentum and a sharp rise in input cost pressures.Across markets, major FX pairs traded in relatively tight ranges, while gold consolidated after its recent gains, reflecting a pause in safe-haven momentum.Looking ahead, attention turns to upcoming Fed commentary, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem (on the economy at 9.05 am US Eastern time) and Governor Barr (on other matters at 9.10am) both scheduled to speak, alongside a highly anticipated prime-time address (9pm US Eastern time) from President Trump on the Iran conflict, which could provide further clarity on the U.S. strategy and timeline. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Market signals from insurance, shipping flows and physical oil pricing point to ongoing disruption in Hormuz, despite conflicting narratives. Mid-April looms as a key turning point as temporary supply supports begin to expire.Summary:Headline noise rising, but real signals sit in physical markets Hormuz insurance costs surge to 3.5–10% vs ~0.25% pre-war Shipping volumes collapse ~90%, showing real disruption Physical oil trades at premium to futures, exposing pricing disconnect Mid-April seen as critical inflection point for global supply With conflicting headlines dominating the narrative around the Iran conflict, investors are increasingly looking beyond official statements and analyst forecasts to gauge what is actually happening in energy markets.Recent commentary from policymakers and analysts has ranged widely, from expectations of a rapid end to the war to warnings of prolonged disruption and extreme oil price outcomes. This divergence has made it difficult to form a coherent market view based purely on rhetoric. Instead, attention is shifting toward real-time indicators tied to physical flows and financial risk.One of the clearest signals comes from maritime insurance markets. Premiums for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have surged from around 0.25% of vessel value before the conflict to between 3.5% and 10%. In many cases, coverage is either prohibitively expensive or unavailable. This sharp repricing reflects the assessment of underwriters with significant capital at risk, offering a more grounded measure of perceived danger than official commentary.Shipping activity provides another critical gauge. Vessel tracking data shows a dramatic drop in traffic through the strait, with daily transits falling from over 100 ships to single-digit levels. While some cargoes, particularly linked to key buyers such as China and India, continue to move, overall flows remain severely constrained. A sustained recovery in volumes would be one of the earliest signs of stabilisation.Pricing dynamics in oil markets also point to underlying stress. While benchmark Brent crude remains elevated, physical grades such as Dubai crude are trading at a meaningful premium, indicating that end-users are paying more than headline prices suggest. This divergence reflects tight supply conditions and highlights the limitations of relying solely on futures markets to assess real-world costs.Looking ahead, mid-April is shaping as a key inflection point. Several temporary measures currently cushioning the supply shock—including strategic reserve releases and policy waivers—are set to expire. Without these supports, the existing supply deficit could widen significantly, increasing the risk of further volatility.Taken together, these indicators suggest that while narratives remain fluid, underlying market conditions continue to reflect significant disruption, with the trajectory increasingly dependent on whether physical flows through Hormuz can normalise in the coming weeks. From pre war This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RatingDog / S&P Global China manufacturing PMI for March 2026. Yesterday we had the official PMIs. Summary:China manufacturing PMI at 50.8 (prev. 52.1), still in expansion for 4th straight month Growth slows but remains second-strongest in six months Output, new orders and employment all continue to rise Input price inflation jumps to highest since March 2022 Output prices hit four-year high, signalling pass-through Supply chains deteriorate: delivery times longest since Dec 2022 Middle East conflict cited as key driver of cost pressuresChina’s manufacturing sector continued to expand in March, though momentum cooled as rising cost pressures and supply chain disruptions began to weigh on activity.The headline PMI came in at 50.8, down from February’s recent peak of 52.1 but still above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. This marks a fourth consecutive month of growth, with operating conditions continuing to improve overall, albeit at a more moderate pace. Underlying demand remained supportive. Both output and new orders increased again, with firms citing stronger market demand, customer acquisition and competitive pricing. Export orders also rose, though at a slower pace than the prior month, suggesting some softening in external demand.Production expanded for a fourth straight month, while employment rose for a third consecutive month, marking the longest stretch of job creation since mid-2021. Firms also increased purchasing activity, reflecting ongoing efforts to meet demand.However, the survey highlighted a sharp deterioration in cost conditions. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in two years, driven by higher raw material costs and energy prices. Output prices also increased at the strongest rate in four years, indicating that firms are increasingly passing on these higher costs to customers.At the same time, supply chain pressures intensified. Supplier delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since December 2022, reflecting disruptions linked to volatile input prices, capacity constraints and logistical challenges. Rising backlogs of work point to growing strain on production capacity.Despite these headwinds, manufacturers remain broadly optimistic about the year ahead, supported by expectations of improved demand, capacity investment and supportive government policy. However, sentiment has softened from recent highs.The data highlight a more complex macro environment. While domestic policy remains geared toward stability with moderate growth targets, external risks—particularly geopolitical tensions driving higher energy prices—are emerging as a key challenge. This combination of steady growth and rising inflationary pressure underscores the delicate balance facing China’s industrial sector in the months ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UAE is leading the Gulf’s hawkish turn on Iran, pushing for a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and signalling willingness to play a direct military role. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain appear closer to that camp than Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, but a true Gulf coalition remains politically uneven. If one forms, it would most likely center on U.S.-led maritime security, air defence, escorts, mine-clearing and logistics rather than a full-scale ground war. The big challenge is that Iran can still impose heavy disruption through asymmetric means even without controlling the battlefield conventionallySummary:The UAE has moved furthest toward direct military participation, saying it could join a U.S.-led effort to secure or reopen the Strait of Hormuz and, according to recent reporting, is now lobbying for a broader coalition and even UN cover for action. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain appear more aligned with the harder line than Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, but the Gulf is not fully united on direct warfighting. Reuters reports the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are prepared to absorb more escalation, while Qatar, Oman and Kuwait prefer a quicker end to the war. Militarily, a Gulf coalition would not try to “conquer Iran.” Its more realistic mission set would be air and missile defence, maritime escort, mine-clearing, intelligence support, logistics, and possibly limited strikes or island-seizure support near Hormuz. The Gulf states’ edge is in advanced Western airpower and air defence, but Iran’s advantage remains asymmetric warfare: drones, missiles, mines, fast boats and the ability to keep shipping under threat even after suffering heavy damage. The key uncertainty is political, not just military: whether Washington wants a prolonged Hormuz operation, whether enough partners sign on, and whether Gulf capitals are willing to absorb more Iranian retaliation against cities, ports and energy infrastructureThe emerging story in the Gulf is no longer just whether the United States winds down the war with Iran, but whether a broader Arab-backed security architecture begins to form around reopening the Strait of Hormuz and containing Iran’s missile, drone and maritime threat. The UAE has become the clearest test case. Reuters reported in mid-March that Abu Dhabi could join a U.S.-led effort to secure shipping in Hormuz, while later reporting from the Wall Street Journal said the UAE is now actively preparing to help force the strait open and is pushing for a coalition that could include Western and Asian powers. That marks a major strategic shift. For years, the Gulf monarchies tried to avoid being seen as direct combatants against Iran. But repeated Iranian strikes on Gulf territory, plus the economic damage from Hormuz disruption, appear to be changing that calculus. Reuters says Gulf states are privately telling Washington that a ceasefire alone is not enough and that any endgame must permanently curb Iran’s ability to threaten shipping, energy flows and civilian infrastructure with missiles, drones and proxies. The Gulf, however, is not moving in lockstep. Reuters reports that the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are the states most willing to absorb escalation and push for a tougher postwar settlement, while Qatar, Oman and Kuwait are more focused on bringing the war to an end and limiting the economic fallout. That split matters because any coalition is more plausible if it begins with a core of willing states rather than full GCC unanimity. Bahrain is especially relevant politically because it hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, while Saudi Arabia matters because of its scale, geography and airpower. In military terms, a Gulf coalition with the U.S. would probably not look like a classic invasion force. It would more likely be a layered maritime-air campaign. The United States would provide the backbone: carrier aviation, ISR, electronic warfare, tanker support, missile defence enablers, command-and-control, and the naval muscle to escort shipping and suppress Iranian threats. Gulf partners would add air bases, proximity, logistics hubs, Patriot and THAAD-type defences, local air forces, naval patrol assets, and potentially mine-clearing or escort roles. CSIS notes that Gulf states are already deeply engaged in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones and, alongside the U.S., rely on Patriot systems for ballistic and cruise missile defence while using other aircraft and short-range systems against drones. The UAE is especially notable because it combines willingness with useful geography and capable forces. Reporting indicates Abu Dhabi is examining roles such as mine-clearing and support for reopening the strait, and analysts cited by the Wall Street Journal say its bases, deep-water port at Jebel Ali, and location near Hormuz could make it a valuable staging platform. Saudi Arabia brings weightier scale, deeper resources and an advanced air arm, while Bahrain offers strategic basing. Kuwait is more exposed geographically and useful logistically, but politically more cautious. Qatar has important U.S. basing value but has tended to preserve channels and flexibility. Oman remains indispensable diplomatically and geographically because of its relationship to the strait, yet is more naturally positioned as a mediator than a front-line combatant. Still, the main point is that even a strong coalition would not make Hormuz an easy problem. Analysts keep stressing that Iran does not need naval dominance to keep the waterway dangerous. Mines, drones, anti-ship missiles, small boats and persistent harassment can be enough to threaten commercial traffic and keep insurers, shippers and energy markets on edge. CSIS says the key question is how much residual missile and drone capacity Iran still retains and whether a U.S. operation to open the strait can actually neutralise it enough to restore normal shipping. What happens next depends on politics as much as tactics. One possibility is a limited coalition focused on escorts, mine-clearance and deterrence, especially if the U.S. wants allies to carry more of the burden while avoiding a prolonged American occupation-style commitment. Another is a looser coalition in which Gulf states provide basing, intelligence and defensive cover rather than overt strike participation. The most escalatory path would involve direct Gulf combat roles or attempts to seize or secure key islands and approaches near Hormuz. For now, the UAE appears to be pushing hardest toward action, but the chances of a full, openly declared Gulf war coalition still depend on whether Washington commits, whether partners believe the mission is achievable, and whether they are prepared for more Iranian retaliation in return. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.PBOC injects 500mn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations. This is the smallest daily cash injection in OMOs since 2015. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UAE is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a major strategic shift and raising the risk of broader regional escalation as Iran warns of further retaliation. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Summary:UAE is pushing to reopen Strait of Hormuz by force, lobbying for UN-backed coalition Would mark first Gulf state entering combat role against Iran Proposal includes mine-clearing, escort operations, and possible island seizures Iran has escalated attacks on UAE, warning of further strikes on infrastructure Move reflects major strategic shift as Gulf states align more closely with US war effort Raises risk of broader regional war and prolonged energy disruptionThe United Arab Emirates is taking a more assertive stance in the Iran conflict, signalling it is prepared to support military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.According to officials, the UAE is lobbying for a United Nations Security Council resolution that would authorise a multinational effort to restore freedom of navigation in the strait, including the potential use of force. Emirati officials are also urging the United States and allied powers across Europe and Asia to form a coalition capable of clearing mines, escorting commercial shipping and, if necessary, taking control of strategic territory along the waterway. The shift marks a significant change in the UAE’s posture. Historically cautious and economically intertwined with Iran, the country had previously sought to avoid direct confrontation. However, sustained Iranian missile and drone attacks, along with economic damage to sectors such as aviation, tourism and property, have altered that calculus.The UAE is now actively considering a direct military role, including supporting operations to secure key islands in the strait. The waterway is vital not only for global oil and gas flows but also for the UAE’s own economic model, which depends heavily on trade, logistics and stable shipping routes.Other Gulf states are also hardening their stance. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are backing efforts to increase pressure on Iran, though most have not yet committed to direct military engagement. Bahrain is sponsoring the proposed UN resolution, with a vote expected soon.However, the risks of escalation are significant. Iran has warned it will intensify strikes against any country participating in efforts to challenge its control over the strait, and attacks on UAE infrastructure have already increased sharply. Analysts caution that even a limited military operation could trigger prolonged instability, particularly if Iran retains the ability to disrupt shipping with asymmetric tactics such as mines, drones or small craft.While the UAE’s move reflects growing urgency among Gulf states, it also underscores the difficulty of securing the strait militarily. Any operation would likely require sustained control of both the waterway and surrounding territory, raising the prospect of a deeper and longer conflict. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Adding some info on the Tankan to the earlier post, via Reuters recap. Summary:Japan Tankan shows large manufacturers at +17 (vs +16 expected), continuing improvement Large non-manufacturers strong at +36 (vs +33 expected) Firms expect conditions to worsen over next three months Inflation expectations rise to record highs (2.6% 1yr, 2.5% 3–5yr) Middle East/Iran war driving cost pressures and uncertainty, though not fully reflected yet Reinforces BoJ tightening bias, with markets pricing ~70% chance of April hikeJapan’s latest Tankan survey confirmed that corporate sentiment remained resilient in early 2026, though the outlook has deteriorated as the economic impact of the Iran war begins to filter through.Large manufacturers’ sentiment rose to +17 in March, slightly above expectations and marking a continued improvement from previous quarters. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers also remained strong at +36, beating forecasts and highlighting ongoing support from domestic demand and services activity. Together, the data suggest that Japanese firms have, for now, largely absorbed the initial shock from the recent escalation in the Middle East.However, forward-looking indicators paint a more cautious picture. Firms expect business conditions to weaken over the next three months, reflecting concerns about rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions and broader global uncertainty stemming from the conflict. A Bank of Japan official noted that while some responses were collected after the escalation began, the survey likely does not fully capture the extent of the war’s economic impact.The data also highlight growing inflationary pressures. Corporate inflation expectations have risen to record levels, with firms projecting inflation at 2.6% over the next year and 2.5% over three- and five-year horizons. This suggests that price pressures are becoming more embedded, driven in part by higher energy costs and a weaker yen.Capital Economics struck a notably hawkish tone on the implications for policy. “The Tankan survey showed that firms are shrugging off the energy shock caused by the Iran war, which should encourage the BoJ to hike rates at this month's meeting,” said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.At the same time, the Bank of Japan faces a complex trade-off. While rising energy costs are pushing inflation higher, they also risk weighing on economic activity in a country heavily reliant on imported fuel. This tension comes as the BoJ continues its gradual normalisation process following the end of its ultra-loose policy regime, with markets now assigning a high probability to another rate increase in the near term.Bank of Japan Governor Ueda This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s manufacturing sector remains in expansion but is losing momentum as cost pressures rise and confidence weakens, with the Middle East conflict feeding through into inflation and uncertainty.Summary:Japan manufacturing PMI eased to 51.6 (prev. 53.0), still in expansion Growth slowed but remains second-strongest since mid-2022 New orders, output and employment all expanded at softer pace Input cost inflation surged to fastest in ~19 months, driven by energy Business confidence weakened amid Middle East war uncertaintyJapan’s manufacturing sector continued to expand in March, though momentum slowed notably as rising costs and global uncertainty began to weigh on activity.The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.6 from 53.0 in February, indicating a slower but still solid pace of improvement. Despite the moderation, the reading remains among the strongest seen since mid-2022, suggesting the sector retains a degree of underlying resilience. The loss of momentum was evident across key components. Growth in output and new orders continued but at a more modest pace, reflecting softer demand conditions. Firms cited continued strength in areas such as semiconductors, AI-related products and automotive demand, though the overall expansion in new business slowed compared to recent months. Export orders also rose, but at a reduced rate.Employment increased for a third consecutive month, but hiring growth also moderated. While firms continued to expand capacity, labour shortages persisted and hiring was not sufficient to prevent a further buildup in backlogs of work.At the same time, cost pressures intensified. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in over a year-and-a-half, driven by higher energy and raw material costs, as well as the impact of a weaker yen. Survey respondents explicitly linked part of the increase to the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted energy markets and supply chains.Firms responded by raising output prices, with selling price inflation accelerating to one of the fastest rates in recent months, indicating ongoing pass-through of higher costs.Business confidence weakened compared to February’s recent highs, as companies expressed concern over the global outlook and the persistence of geopolitical risks. While some firms remain optimistic about demand tied to structural growth areas such as AI and defence, the near-term outlook has become more uncertain.Overall, the data suggest Japan’s manufacturing sector remains in expansion but is increasingly facing headwinds from rising costs and slowing demand, complicating the policy backdrop for the Bank of Japan. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar halt after KOSPI futures surged 5% Program trading paused for 5 minutes to cool rapid market moves Move follows strong upside momentum from Wall Street rally Sidecar acts as a temporary circuit breaker for derivatives-driven volatility Highlights risk of momentum-driven dislocations in fast-moving marketsSouth Korea’s stock exchange briefly halted program trading after a sharp surge in equity futures, underscoring the strength of global risk sentiment while highlighting the role of market safeguards during periods of rapid price movement.The Korea Exchange activated a so-called “sidecar” mechanism after KOSPI 200 futures rose by 5%, triggering an automatic pause in program trading for five minutes. The move is designed to prevent excessive volatility caused by algorithmic and arbitrage-driven trades that can amplify market swings during fast-moving sessions.The rally follows strong gains on Wall Street, where equities surged amid improving sentiment around geopolitical developments and expectations of de-escalation. The positive lead carried into Asian trading, with Korean equities reacting sharply as futures markets priced in the global risk-on tone.A sidecar differs from a full market circuit breaker in that it targets program trading, typically automated or basket trades linked to futures, rather than halting the entire market. By temporarily suspending these flows, exchanges aim to allow price discovery to stabilise and prevent feedback loops where rising prices trigger further automated buying.Circuit breakers and similar mechanisms are widely used across global markets to manage extreme volatility. They are intended not to stop market moves altogether, but to slow them, giving participants time to reassess information and reduce the risk of disorderly trading conditions.In this case, the trigger reflects strong upward momentum rather than panic selling, illustrating that such safeguards apply in both directions. Rapid gains can be just as destabilising as sharp declines, particularly when driven by leveraged or systematic strategies.The episode highlights how quickly global sentiment can transmit across markets, with Wall Street’s rally feeding into Asian equities and prompting mechanical responses from market infrastructure designed to maintain orderly trading. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Tankan shows improving business sentiment, with large manufacturers at their strongest since 2021, but a softer outlook and falling profit expectations signal growing caution ahead.Summary:Japan Tankan shows large manufacturers sentiment at +17 (vs +16 expected) Marks 4th straight quarterly improvement, highest since Dec 2021 Non-manufacturers strong at +36, beating expectations Outlook softens: big manufacturers seen at +14 in June Profit outlook weak: firms see FY profits falling ~2% Capex mixed: large firms +3.3%, small firms -8.1% The Bank of Japan’s latest Tankan survey showed continued resilience in corporate sentiment, with large manufacturers extending their recovery streak, though forward-looking indicators point to a more cautious outlook.The headline index for large manufacturers rose to +17 in March, beating expectations and marking a fourth consecutive quarterly improvement. The reading is the strongest since December 2021, suggesting that Japan’s industrial sector has maintained momentum despite a challenging global backdrop. Non-manufacturers remained particularly strong, with the index holding at +36, also above forecasts. This highlights ongoing support from the domestic economy, particularly in services, even as external conditions remain uncertain.However, the outlook component suggests this resilience may not be sustained. Large manufacturers expect sentiment to ease to +14 in June, while non-manufacturers are also seen moderating to +29. This forward-looking weakness points to rising caution among firms, likely reflecting global demand concerns and geopolitical risks.Profit expectations reinforce this more subdued outlook. Firms forecast a roughly 2% decline in recurring profits for the fiscal year, indicating margin pressure from rising costs and softer demand.Investment plans remain uneven. Large firms intend to increase capital expenditure by 3.3%, signalling ongoing confidence in longer-term growth, while small firms expect a sharp contraction in spending, highlighting a divergence in financial strength across the corporate sector.Labour market conditions remain tight, with the employment index at -38, suggesting persistent worker shortages. Financial conditions, however, remain broadly accommodative.Overall, the survey presents a nuanced picture: current conditions are firm and improving, but momentum is expected to fade. For the Bank of Japan, this mix of resilience and caution supports a gradual approach to policy normalisation rather than aggressive tightening.----The Tankan survey is a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to measure the economic health of Japanese companies. The survey is widely considered to be one of the most important indicators of the Japanese economy, as it provides a detailed snapshot of the current and expected business conditions among large manufacturers, non-manufacturers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan.The survey is based on a sample of approximately 10,000 companies and covers a wide range of topics, including business conditions, investment plans, and employment. The survey results are used by the BOJ and other government agencies to make policy decisions, and are also closely watched by economists, investors, and businesses. The Tankan survey is usually released in the first week of the month following the quarter it covers, and it's considered as a leading indicator for the Japanese economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump doubles down on rapid Iran exit timeline, signalling shift to mission-complete stance.Summary:Trump reiterates U.S. could end Iran war within 2–3 weeks, signalling accelerated exit timeline Says no deal required with Tehran for withdrawal, marking shift from negotiation-dependent framing Condition for exit: Iran’s nuclear capability must be effectively neutralised Comments reinforce earlier signals of imminent withdrawal and claimed “objectives achieved” Highlights pivot from escalation phase toward mission-complete narrative, though risks remainU.S. President Donald Trump has reinforced earlier signals that Washington is preparing to wind down its military campaign against Iran, stating that the conflict could end within two to three weeks.Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said the United States would be “leaving very soon,” with a withdrawal potentially occurring “within two weeks, maybe two, maybe three.” The remarks build on earlier comments in which he suggested U.S. objectives had largely been achieved and that a resolution could come quickly.Crucially, Trump indicated that a formal agreement with Tehran is not a prerequisite for ending the conflict. When asked whether a deal was necessary, he responded that Iran “doesn’t have to make a deal,” instead framing the exit condition around military outcomes rather than diplomacy.According to Trump, the key requirement is that Iran’s capabilities, particularly its ability to develop a nuclear weapon, are sufficiently degraded. He described the objective as ensuring Iran is effectively unable to reconstitute such capabilities in the near term, after which U.S. forces would withdraw.The latest remarks suggest a transition toward a “mission accomplished” narrative, with Washington seeking to exit after applying significant force rather than securing a formal settlement.This evolving stance comes against the backdrop of a month-long conflict that has reshaped regional dynamics, disrupted shipping and energy flows, and driven volatility across global markets. U.S. forces have maintained a heavy presence in the region, including multiple carrier strike groups and additional troop deployments, underscoring the scale of the operation.While the compressed timeline signals a potential de-escalation, uncertainty remains high. Questions persist around the durability of any withdrawal, the extent of damage to Iran’s capabilities, and whether unresolved issues could trigger renewed tensions after a U.S. exit. And over the credibility of Trump's comments.... “within two weeks, maybe two, maybe three.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the tax office will offer temporary relief to businesses impacted by the Iran war, including payment deferrals and support measures. Small businesses will gain easier access to credit, with options such as loan restructuring and emergency increases to credit limits to help manage cash flow pressures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to contraction in March as demand weakened and cost pressures surged. Middle East-related supply disruptions and rising input costs weighed on activity, while confidence deteriorated sharply.Summary:Australian manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.8 (prev. 51.0) in March New orders declined for the first time in five months, signalling weakening demand Input cost inflation surged to a 3.5-year high, driven by energy and freight costs Supply chains deteriorated amid shipping delays linked to the Middle East conflict Business confidence dropped sharply to the lowest level in 20 monthsAustralia’s manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction in March, as weakening demand and intensifying cost pressures highlighted the growing economic impact of global geopolitical tensions.The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 from 51.0 in February, dropping below the neutral 50 threshold and signalling a marginal deterioration in operating conditions. The decline was driven primarily by a renewed fall in new orders, which decreased for the first time in five months as customer demand softened and confidence weakened. Production also declined for a second consecutive month, reflecting both weaker demand and ongoing supply-side constraints. Firms reported increasing difficulty sourcing materials, with supplier delivery times deteriorating sharply. Shipping delays, often linked to disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict, contributed to longer lead times and reduced operational efficiency.At the same time, cost pressures intensified significantly. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in three-and-a-half years, with higher oil prices feeding through to freight and fuel costs. Around 40% of surveyed firms reported rising input costs, underscoring the breadth of inflationary pressures across the sector. Output prices also increased, indicating that some of these costs are being passed on to customers.Despite weakness in domestic demand, export orders remained a relative bright spot, rising at the fastest pace since mid-2021. However, this strength was insufficient to offset broader softness in overall activity.Labour market conditions also deteriorated, with employment falling for the first time in five months as firms responded to lower workloads and rising costs. Purchasing activity and inventories declined, reflecting cautious business behaviour amid uncertainty.Looking ahead, confidence weakened sharply, falling to its lowest level in 20 months. Firms cited concerns over the persistence of geopolitical tensions and their impact on demand and supply chains. While some manufacturers remain hopeful that exports and stabilising conditions could support a recovery, the near-term outlook remains highly uncertain. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Trump signals a rapid U.S. exit from Iran within 2–3 weeks, citing progress and possible deal Claims “regime change already” suggests Washington sees objectives largely achieved Comments contrast with earlier expectations of a longer military presence (6–8 weeks or more) Signals potential shift from escalation to negotiation phase Raises uncertainty over durability of any withdrawal and stability in the regionU.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that American forces could withdraw from Iran within weeks, marking a potentially sharp pivot in the trajectory of the conflict.Speaking late Tuesday, Trump said the United States would be “leaving Iran very soon,” adding that a withdrawal could take place within two to three weeks. He also suggested that Washington’s objectives may already have been achieved, stating that “we have had regime change already,” while noting that a deal with Tehran could still be reached before any exit is completed.The remarks point to a significantly shorter timeline than previously expected. Earlier guidance from defence officials and administration figures (Hegseth) had implied a more extended presence, potentially six to eight weeks or longer, as U.S. forces worked to stabilise conditions and maintain pressure on Iran.The shift in tone suggests the administration may be seeking to transition from a military-heavy phase toward a negotiated outcome. Trump’s reference to a possible deal reinforces the idea that diplomatic channels remain active, even as military operations have intensified in recent weeks. Trump's public remarks nee to be taken with care, though, he is not known as being overly truthful, and indeed in his role as head of the military he does need to be deceptive from time time. However, the compressed timeline raises questions about the durability of any withdrawal. A rapid exit could leave unresolved risks around Iran’s nuclear programme, missile capabilities and regional proxy networks, issues that Washington has repeatedly cited as central to its objectives.From a strategic standpoint, the comments may reflect confidence that sufficient pressure has already been applied, or a desire to avoid a prolonged and potentially costly engagement. At the same time, the divergence between Trump’s remarks and earlier expectations of a longer deployment highlights ongoing uncertainty around U.S. strategy.Markets are likely to interpret the comments as a tentative de-escalation signal, though credibility will hinge on follow-through and whether any agreement materialises in the coming weeks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the news. Summary:A U.S. firm, Virtus Minerals, has acquired cobalt producer Chemaf in the DRC, marking a strategic win over China Deal valued at ~$30 million upfront plus ~$720 million in investment commitments Chemaf controls assets capable of producing ~5% of global cobalt supply Acquisition backed by U.S. government as part of critical minerals strategy Significant operational, financial and political risks remain, including ~$1 billion in debt and challenging conditions on the groundA U.S.-backed firm has acquired control of one of the largest non-Chinese cobalt producers, marking a strategic step in Washington’s push to secure critical mineral supply chains.Virtus Minerals has completed the purchase of Chemaf, a copper-and-cobalt producer in the Democratic Republic of Congo, in a deal involving a $30 million upfront payment and plans to raise roughly $720 million in investment. The acquisition gives the U.S. exposure to assets capable of producing around 5% of global cobalt supply, a key input for electric vehicles, defence systems and electronics. The deal caps a multi-year effort by U.S. officials to gain a foothold in Congo’s mining sector, where Chinese companies have spent heavily and now dominate production. Virtus has indicated future output will be directed toward U.S. and allied buyers, aligning with broader national security and industrial policy goals.However, the acquisition comes with significant challenges. Chemaf carries roughly $1 billion in debt and operates in one of the most difficult mining environments globally, with infrastructure constraints, regulatory uncertainty and ongoing issues with informal mining at key sites.Execution risk is a central concern. Virtus is a relatively small firm with limited large-scale mining experience, and substantial capital expenditure—estimated at up to $300 million—is still required to upgrade operations and reach target production levels.The deal also follows the collapse of a previous $920 million sale of Chemaf to a Chinese state-linked buyer, highlighting both the strategic importance of the asset and the complexity of executing transactions in the region.While the acquisition represents a geopolitical win for Washington in the race against Beijing, its ultimate success will depend on whether Virtus can stabilise operations and deliver sustained production in a challenging environment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.