Gold (XAU/USD) prices have broken above the key $4,600/oz psychological barrier.Middle East tensions are escalating as diplomacy stalls and the US continues a military buildup, fueling market uncertainty.The rare negative correlation between Crude and Gold appears to be shifting, with rising Oil prices potentially benefiting Gold by compressing real interest rates and bringing back the "inflation hedge" narrative.Gold needs to find acceptance above the $4600/oz handle for bullish momentum to continue.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Gold prices have risen over the last two days to pierce above a key psychological barrier at the $4600/oz handle. The precious metal is eyeing acceptance above this level which could lead to further upside in the days ahead, if the geopolitical picture remains supportive.Middle East Tensions: Diplomacy stalls as military buildup adds to market uncertainty Hopes for a swift de-escalation in the Middle East have taken a hit as Iran signals a clear reluctance to engage in direct negotiations with the US. This friction is undermining what was already a fragile diplomatic process, leaving market participants wary of a prolonged standoff.Iranian President Pezeshkian summed it up by saying Iran was attacked twice during the talks, proving the US does not believe in diplomacy. However, he followed this up by saying that Iran is ready to end the war, but wants guarantees. This mixed messaging is similar to what we have been seeing from the US administration as well.Adding fuel to the fire, the US continues to deploy additional troops and military assets to the region. As uncertainty climbs, the focus remains firmly on how these developments will impact broader market sentiment and the demand for safe-haven assets.Oil and Gold correlation shifts Since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, we have witnessed a rare and sustained negative correlation between Crude and Gold. Usually, these two move in tandem as hedges against geopolitical risk.However, the recent spike in Oil prices forced a massive repricing of Fed expectations:Rising Oil = Inflationary Pressure: As energy costs soared, markets were forced to price out previously anticipated Fed rate cuts.Gold’s Sensitivity: With the "pivot" narrative delayed, Gold lost its luster as a non-yielding asset, leading to the sharpest decline in nearly two decades.The tide may be turning. Over the last few sessions, we’ve seen Gold and Oil begin to rise at the same time, a signal that the negative correlation is changing.With Fed funds futures now effectively ruling out further rate cuts, but the market remaining skeptical of additional hikes, we enter a new phase. If the Fed remains on hold while Oil continues to climb, inflation expectations will naturally rise. This scenario would lead to a compression in real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation).As long as the Fed remains sidelined and refuses to entertain further hikes, rising Oil prices may actually provide a tailwind for Gold by dragging real yields lower.For gold bugs, the "inflation hedge" narrative might finally be back on the table.Where to next? The US dollar is still playing a role and with high impact US data ahead this week we could still see some volatility.However, it is Easter this weekend and thus the closer to the weekend we get the greater the probability that we could see a thinning of liquidity and thus some sideways price action.Market participants will still be keeping a close watch on the geopolitical developments in the Middle East and any changes to the situation could impact gold prices. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of a technical recovery on the H4 chart, successfully reclaiming the $4,600 handle.After a period of aggressive selling, price action has established a solid ascending trendline, suggesting that the "buy the dip" mentality is returning to the market.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: The immediate hurdle sits at $4,700. A sustained break above this level could open the door for a retest of the $4,800 area.Support: The recent pivot at $4,500 remains a crucial psychological floor. As long as the ascending trendline holds, the bullish structure remains intact.The RSI is currently hovering around 62, indicating that while momentum is positive, there is still room to run before hitting overbought territory. Bulls will be looking for a daily close above $4,600 to confirm this recovery phase.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 31, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are now attempting a more significant bounce from recent lows as the War narrative easesTaking a step back to daily charts for Stock Indexes to determine if today's rebound is a bull-trap or an actual opportunityExploring Daily Charts for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 When the Trump Administration pivots, it does in a flash.And after the five weeks of War, the initial deadline is coming to its end – the US President implied that he would leave the defense of the Strait of Hormuz to European and Asian nations that have been reluctant to act in the region since the beginning of the month.This would be yet another return to the infamous America First policy, this time leaving more dire consequences around the old Continents with Military operations now reaching their peaks, with Gulf countries and Europe having to deal with the post-conflict protection.Despite this resolution potentially marking a more unstable future outlook, Markets are taking a breather from the persistent selloff seen throughout recent weeks.Tumbling about 10% across all Benchmarks, US Indexes are reaching interesting technical levels – The idea is that with forward-looking Markets, and US interests (seemingly) protected, investors could slowly ease up on their bearish fears.Crude prices remain dangerously high when assessing the dampening effect the 50% rise will have on the global economy which has been slowing its post-COVID ascent.WTI is holding around $105 while Brent eased significantly to $107 – Check out our past day scenarios for Oil prices and key levels. Developed Economies' Growth is slowing – Source: EY Strategy As long as energy commodities' prices don't correct, it will be difficult to remain so optimistic.But at least, Investors can start to shun some of their uncertainty regarding escalations.This entire narrative is certainly not over yet, and reactions could be larger on an official announcement – However, we might be nearing the conflict's maximum point.Today, we will take a step back to spot where recent Market corrections took US Benchmarks – Let’s examine the Daily charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 to spot if this is indeed a longer-run investment opportunity. Discover:USD Double Top as Markets slowly price end of War – US Dollar Index (DXY) outlookMarkets Today: China factory activity surges, French inflation jumps, FTSE 100 eyes further gain as data releases lie aheadIs the War really reaching its end? Assets bounce despite Oil rally – Market CheckCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56 AM ET) – Source: TradingView – March 31, 2026 The rebound from the previous session continues and is now way more widespread, particularly in the key Tech and Manufacturing sectors.Mega Caps are actually leading today's rally with Nvidia up 3%, Google and Amazon following suit – Even in more defensive sectors like Healthcare and Finance, Market leaders (JP Morgan, Eli Lilly) are pulling the rest of the Market higher.This marks a defensive optimism where investors are still looking for the most quality stocks in order to avoid a more brutal comedown in case the narrative sours.Dow Jones Daily Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) Daily Chart – March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is still evolving in its major pullback downtrend, reacting significantly to the 45,000 Major Support (Early 2025 record).The price action remains bearish on the mid-term, but after an 11% correction, some small, progressive dip-buying at this key level could be justified for longer-run.This technical setup is supported by the past session's failed lows (new cycle trough but didn't close below) and a large bullish divergence forming.One element to consider is whether bulls can manage a break out of the downward channel (daily close above 46,000)The Momentum will only be mid-term bullish above the 200-Day MA (46,820)The next stop will be the 50-Day MA, above this, expect Markets to regain an easy path to all time highsTo check out intraday technical levels, check out our past day analysis!Dow Jones Daily technical levels for trading:Daily Resistance Levels46,000 to 46,700 November Pivot (bull above)46,820 200-Day MAIntraday Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance and 50-Day MA at 48,000Daily Support LevelsJanuary 2025 Highs and War Lows 45,280Channel and Morning lows 44,840Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500Major Support 43,500 to 43,75036,600 Liberation Day LowsNasdaq Daily Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) Daily Chart – March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is rebounding steeply after reaching levels not seen since July 2025 at 22,800.The price action certainly less bullish compared to the Dow Jones, by having failed to form a bull divergence on its daily RSI, and seeing relative weakness in recent trading.This would hint at Nasdaq underperformance in coming weeks even if the War brings further optimism in Markets (rotation towards more defensive).Still, this doesn't prevent to hunt for interesting Tech individual stocks that have seen heavy discounts since late 2025.The most discouraging development for Nasdaq, to keep your eyes on in coming days, is the potential Death-Cross that seems to be forming (50-Day MA crossing the 200-Day MA). Tracked by large investors, this may provide further danger in the Index.To check out intraday technical levels, check out our past day analysis!Nasdaq Daily technical levels of interest:Daily Resistance LevelsMajor Daily Pivot 23,600 to 24,000 (more neutral above)Minor resistance at 23,750 (bear channel mid-level)Major 50 and 200-Day Moving averages ~24,500 Current All-Time High resistance 26,000 to 26,330Daily Support Levels23,000 Major July 2025 Support and War lows22,000 to 22,229 (Early 2025 ATH) Support Zone21,000 Psychological minor Support20,000 to 20,500 May Bounce Support16,335 - Liberation Day 2025 LowsS&P 500 Daily Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) Daily Chart – March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is subject to less aggravating technical pressure than the Nasdaq, but also hasn't formed as consistent of a rebound as the DJIA.Still, bouncing on a key support at 6,300 to 6,400, slow and steady dip-buying would be sensical. Above 6,560, the path for a return to further bullishness is clear, as this would also coincide with a breakout from the Index's War downtrend. War lows are at 6,300, hence watch out if they break.To check out intraday technical levels, check out our past day analysis!S&P 500 Daily technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini 6,500 to 6,560 Resistance6,570 to 6,600 Pivotal intraday resistanceMajor Key Resistance 6,600 to 6,700 (Bullish above)50-Day MA 6,800Current All-Time High Resistance, Range Highs 6,900 to 7,000DailySupport LevelsJune 2025 ATH 6,300 to 6,400 Major Support and current LowsMini 6,200 SupportEnd 2024 ATH 6,000 Major SupportJuly 2024 5,500 Mini-Support4,812 Liberation Day lowsSafe Trades and Keep track of headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A rapid "unwinding" of the geopolitical risk premium in both Gold (XAU/USD) and WTI crude is expected if Middle East de-escalation headlines gain further traction.A breakout above the 10,269 technical level on the FTSE 100 is needed to confirm a sustained recovery, with a potential target of the 10,500 area in early April.The European session focuses on the release of Euro Area CPI data and speeches from several ECB officials.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Japanese equities struggled for direction on Tuesday as the Nikkei 225 limped toward a bleak monthly finish.Despite a marginal 0.02% gain to close at 51,896.91, the benchmark index remains on track for a staggering 11% decline in March, marking its steepest monthly retreat since May 2010. While the broader Topix managed a more respectable 0.5% bounce to 3,559.92, the overall technical picture for Japanese stocks remains fragile.The primary headwind remains the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. Tech shares bore the brunt of the selling pressure overnight, tracking a weak lead from Wall Street after an Iranian attack on a crude tanker in Dubai sent shockwaves through energy markets. The escalation has reignited fears of a broader regional conflict, naturally weighing on high-beta sectors.However, the downside was somewhat cushioned by headlines suggesting a potential de-escalation in rhetoric. A report from the Wall Street Journal indicated that President Trump may be open to winding down military operations against Iran, even if the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains partially restricted.Chinese manufacturing hits fastest pace in a year China’s manufacturing sector showed renewed signs of life in March, with the official NBS Manufacturing PMI jumping to 50.4. This figure comfortably cleared the 50.0 neutral threshold, beating market expectations of 50.1 and marking a significant recovery from February’s 49.0 print.This represents the strongest expansion since March last year, signaling that the powerhouse economy may be finding its footing after a shaky start to 2026.The rebound appears to be dual-fueled. Domestically, front-loaded government spending has provided a much-needed cushion, while on the global stage, the insatiable appetite for AI-related hardware continues to bolster Chinese exports. The "New Orders" sub-index saw a massive swing back into expansionary territory, hitting 51.6 from a previous 48.6, while export demand also showed a marked improvement.While the growth headlines are positive, the report carries a sting in the tail: surging costs. Input prices (63.9) and output prices (55.4) have both spiked to four-year highs. This is largely a byproduct of the volatility in the energy and metals markets, with crude oil and non-ferrous metals driving overheads higher. For the PBOC, this creates a potential headache as they balance the need for growth with brewing factory-gate inflation.From a macro perspective, this data keeps the "China Recovery" narrative alive. If the PMI can hold above the 50.0 handle in the coming months, it could provide a floor for risk-sensitive assets and the Yuan. However, traders should keep a close eye on those surging input costs, if they continue to climb, they could eventually crimp the very "Buying Activity" (50.9) that fueled this month’s beat.European shares eye move higher European equity futures are pointing to a positive start this Tuesday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 climbing 0.5% and 0.2% respectively in premarket trade.The primary catalyst for this "relief bounce" stems from across the Atlantic, following reports that US President Donald Trump has signaled a willingness to wind down military operations against Iran even if the strategic Strait of Hormuz hasn't fully reopened.While the headlines from Washington offered a reprieve, the situation on the ground remains volatile. A fresh Iranian strike on a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai serves as a stark reminder that the "geopolitical risk premium" isn't going away just yet.For traders, this creates a tug-of-war between improving high-level diplomacy and the persistent threat to global shipping and energy supply chains.Commodity markets The energy sector remains the focal point of global macro shifts this Tuesday. Brent Crude futures managed to shake off early session losses of 1% to trade marginally higher at $112.96. Despite the intraday "choppiness," the broader technical picture is one of extreme strength; Brent is currently on track to secure a record-breaking monthly advance as supply-side anxieties continue to dominate the narrative.As we head into the final hours of the March session, traders should note the significant spread between the expiring May contract and the more active June contract, which currently sits at $107.10.Meanwhile, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) took a slight breather, slipping 0.24% to $102.63. After touching its highest level since March 9 earlier today, the US benchmark appears to be finding some resistance as the "Risk-Off" premium sees a marginal cooling.In the precious metals space, Gold (XAU/USD) provided a textbook example of a relief rally on Tuesday. Spot gold surged 1.5% to $4,578.89, buoyed by whispers of a potential diplomatic de-escalation in the Middle East.However, one green day cannot mask the underlying technical damage; the yellow metal is still poised to record its worst monthly performance in over 17 years. Source: LSEG For XAU/USD, the $4,600 level (April Futures) remains the immediate psychological hurdle to clear. For WTI, as long as prices hold above the $100.00 handle, the structural bull trend remains intact. However, if de-escalation headlines gain more traction, we could see a rapid "unwinding" of the geopolitical premium in both assets as we head into April.How did FX markets react? The Japanese yen stabilized around 159.6 per dollar on Tuesday, holding gains from the previous session, supported by repeated verbal warnings from Tokyo and growing market positioning for a possible intervention.On Monday, top currency official Atsushi Mimura said the government would take decisive action if needed, echoing earlier remarks from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. Their comments came as the yen weakened past the critical 160 per dollar level that had previously prompted Tokyo to intervene in currency markets in July 2024.The US Dollar (DXY) is on track to post its most aggressive monthly gain since July, firmly establishing itself as the premier safe-haven asset in a volatile global landscape. After hitting a multi-month high of 100.61 on Monday, the index continues to hover around the 100.47 handle, marking a staggering 2.9% climb through March.The Greenback’s strength is perhaps most evident in its 1% surge against the South Korean Won (KRW). Pushing the pair to the 1,534 level, we are now seeing exchange rates that have historically only surfaced during major systemic shocks, such as the 2009 Global Financial Crisis and the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis.This suggests that the current flight to quality is not just a trend, but a fundamental shift in capital flows.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsHope returns, just an illusion? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 30US: Inflation is rising, the Fed is waiting, and forecasts are getting weakerEconomic calendar and final thoughts The European session is busy today. We have Euro Area CPI due later in the session as well as a host of ECB speakers.French inflation data was released a short while ago and saw a dramatic shift in March, with the annual rate jumping to 1.7%, its highest print since January 2025.This acceleration from February’s 0.9% reading caught the market slightly off guard, edging past the consensus estimate of 1.6%. After a period of relative cooling in the Eurozone's second-largest economy, this "hot" preliminary estimate suggests that the disinflationary trend may be hitting a significant geopolitical roadblock.Looking at the US session and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently pressing the top of a nine-month trading range at 100.50. As we head into the March close, a combination of macro data and month-end rebalancing flows could determine whether the Greenback secures a breakout or faces a tactical retreat.Looking at the data releases and we have the following:JOLTS (Feb): Expected to remain robust, providing a "higher-for-longer" floor for the Fed.Consumer Confidence (Mar): Expected to slide toward April lows (sub-55.0). A miss here would embolden the Fed's dovish wing and increase pressure on the White House to find a Middle East "off-ramp."With US equities and bonds outperforming overseas markets this month, "Fixing Flows" could trigger significant Dollar selling. Institutional buy-side rebalancing typically leans toward selling the outperforming currency (USD) to reset portfolio weights. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 is showing signs of a spirited recovery as we round out a volatile March. After finding significant buyers near the 9,660–9,700 liquidity zone, the index has staged a steady climb back toward key structural levels.While the broader monthly picture remains pressured by geopolitical headwinds, the 4-hour technical setup suggests that the bulls are currently in the driver's seat for a short-term relief rally.Looking at the H4 chart, the UK 100 is currently testing a significant internal resistance zone.Immediate Resistance: The index is hovering just below the 10,206 mark, which aligns with the 200-period SMA (dark blue line). This is a critical technical juncture; a clean break and daily close above this level could clear the path toward the next major psychological handle at 10,300 and the 100-period SMA (yellow line) at 10,410.Support Levels: On the downside, the 10,101 level (purple line) serves as immediate support. Below that, the massive psychological round number of 10,000 remains the "line in the sand" for bulls. If the index fails to hold the 10,000 mark, we could see a quick retest of the recent lows near 9,816.The RSI (14) is currently sitting at 58.3, comfortably above the midpoint and showing a "Pivot" high on the indicator. Crucially, the RSI has exited the oversold territory seen earlier in the month, suggesting that momentum is shifting from a bearish "sell-the-rally" environment to a more balanced, if not slightly bullish, corrective phase.A breakout above 10,269 would be the technical signal that the recovery has real legs, potentially targeting the 10,500 area heading into early April. Conversely, a rejection at the 200-SMA (10,206) would suggest this is merely a "dead cat bounce" before the bears attempt to drag the index back toward the 9,700 demand zone.FTSE 100 Four-Hour (H4) Chart, March 31, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Downtrend intact despite policy support: AUD/USD failed to sustain gains after the hawkish RBA boost, reversing sharply from 0.7123 to a three-month low, with the bearish trend remaining intact below the 0.6910 resistance.Now driven by global risk sentiment: Rising stagflation fears and oil-driven macro stress have shifted AUD/USD into a “risk asset,” with stronger correlation to global equities—implying further downside if equity weakness persists.Key levels signal further downside risk: A break below 0.6838 may extend losses toward 0.6790–0.6710 (near the 200-day MA), while only a move above 0.6910 would invalidate the bearish outlook and trigger a rebound. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Hawkish RBA provides support for AUD/USD, bulls need to break back above 0.7140”, published on 17 March 2025.The price actions of the AUD/USD have staged the initial expected push up on 17 March 2025, ex-post RBA monetary policy meeting, where the Australian central bank offered a hawkish guidance of more interest rate hikes down the road in 2026 after it enacted a back-to-back rate hike of 25 basis points to increase the official cash rate to 4.1%.The AUD/USD staged a rally of around 1% to print an intraday high of 0.7123 on 18 March 2026, which is within our predefined intermediate resistance zone of 0.7120/0.7140 highlighted in our previous analysis before it reversed by -4% to hit a three-month low of 0.6833 on Monday, 30 March 2026.AUD/USD is now behaving like a “risk asset” Fig. 1: Movement of iShares MSCI All Country World Index ETF with AUD/USD as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) In the past two weeks, the stagflation risk narrative has gained traction due to higher oil prices, as global energy flow disruptions persist due to the US-Iran war, which shows no clear signs of de-escalation, damaging several Gulf states’ oil production and refinery assets.Hence, the Australian dollar is now more sensitive to a significant deterioration in risk appetite triggered by heightened stagflation fear that overshadowed the “commodity currency” element.Since mid-March 2026, the movement of the AUD/USD has been closely aligned with global equities.The 20-day rolling correlation coefficient of the iShares MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) ETF and AUD/USD has increased to 0.62 at this time of writing from 0.12 printed on 16 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).Given that the ACWI ETF has just broken below its key 200-day moving average last week, which suggests more potential downside in the near to medium-term for global equities, in turn, it may trigger a further negative loop into the AUD/USD.In today’s early Asian session, the Wall Street Journal has reported that US President Trump is willing to wind down the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, signalling a potential shift in strategic priorities.Overnight risk-off sentiment has stalled on this “conflicting” news flow, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures have erased earlier losses of around -0.5% at the opening hours of today’s Asian session to trade with an intraday of around 0.7% at this time of writing.However, the AUD/USD remains muted and traded almost unchanged at the 0.6850 level.Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD – More downside before potential bullish reversal at 200-day moving average Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 31 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 0.6910 short-term pivotal resistance (former medium-term pivotal support) to maintain a bearish bias.A break below 0.6838 is likely to trigger the continuation of the minor bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6790/6760 and 0.6710 (close to the key 200-day moving average) before a potential bullish reversal occurs (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, a clearance above 0.6910 invalidates the bearish scenario for a mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.6955 and 0.7000 (close to the intersection of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias on AUD/USD The price actions of AUD/USD have continued to oscillate within its minor descending channel in place since 20 March 2026, with its lower boundary coming in at around 0.6710 (see Fig. 2).The daily RSI momentum indicator of AUD/USD has broken below its key ascending trendline support and has not reached its oversold region (below 30) (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 30 Is is the penultimate session in March 2026 trading, and traders are ready to turn the page on this month's exhausting volatility.The epicenter of the moves remain Crude Oil. After a rocky opening, Brent closes firmly around $113 and WTI Crude closes near $105.Looking at the current state of Markets, this session's rise in the energy commodity hasn't held as large of an impact on global sentiment – Much of the uncertainty is now priced in.Overall, today’s session brought a notable shift in market dynamics.Despite elevated Oil prices, monthly correlations are starting to shift: Bonds are catching a bid, and metals appear to be carving out a more consistent bottom – meanwhile Stocks are still struggling.This suggests that traders are at least beginning to look past peak fear, encouraged by more tangible diplomatic discussions involving the US and Iran, while Israel signals that its military objectives may be nearing completion.Last week’s heavy sentiment was largely driven by failed diplomacy. Now, even a modest improvement in dialogue is enough to stabilize flows — though conviction remains fragile. Markets are clearly at an inflection point: Ready for relief, but not yet convinced.The US Dollar Index continues to dominate – Remaining strong into month-end and hovering near breakout territory.Tomorrow will be the month-end session, so keep a close eye on positioning adjustments which may well set the tone for April – and considering this Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls, this week could really be decisive for the rest of the year! Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsIs the War really reaching its end? Assets bounce despite Oil rally – Market CheckTimid rebound attempts from de-escalation talks – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 30, 2026 Today's Stock Market action was a rollercoaster but the extent of the moves marked a relative low compared to the past week's stellar volatility.Investors continue to punish the heavy gainers from recent week, rotating to more traditional sectors – Producer Manufacturing is still getting heavily battered.Tech also caught harsh strays – This could hint at further relative weakness for the Nasdaq ahead (as indicated in our mid-week Stock Market analysis from last week!)Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Volatility did indeed calm down in today's first session where Oil rallied, yet left space for other asset classes to ease their pain – this marks the shift mentioned in the introduction.To be frank, there isn't much to take from today's action except for the break in correlations – Tomorrow's month-end close and progress indications from the US Negotiations will prove decisive for momentum.Cryptos and Bonds look to be the potential outperformers in the event of a proper de-escalation (for now).A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 30, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Except for the still flawless performance in the US Dollar to end the month (Double-top or breakout incoming ?!), the Yen was the clear outlier in today's dull FX action.The Japanese Ministry of Finance is preparing for an imminent intervention and this could change the FX picture for times ahead – Look at GBP/JPY to see the clearest unfolding of such (if it does really happen this time!)A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Not even mentioning Month-End flows, the next 24 hours will be intense for traders.Some highlights include Japanese CPI (tonight), Chinese PMIs, European CPI, UK and Canadian GDP and JOLTS in the US.Make sure that your risk is in control!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Geopolitical shocks, including the Middle East conflict and $100+ oil, have created inflationary pressure, pushing the Federal Reserve toward a "higher-for-longer" interest rate scenario.US equities are facing a valuation test due to the lingering effects of the 2025 tariff regime.The Nasdaq 100 is dealing with "AI exhaustion," though a $700 billion structural increase in AI capital expenditure in 2026 provides a fundamental floor for the tech sector.The Dow Jones Industrial Average is positioning as a potential "value haven" and could lead a Q2 recovery.Most Read: Crude Oil Price Forecast: Analyzing the bullish $150 case and bearish $95 threatAs we pull the curtain on a turbulent first quarter, the narrative for US equities in Q2 2026 is shifting from "all-out AI" to a more nuanced, "pensive" reality. The bullish momentum that defined 2025 has hit a significant roadblock, primarily driven by the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.For market participants, the question isn’t just whether the trend is still your friend, but whether you have the stomach for the "TACO" trade (Trump Always Comes Off), the market's growing belief that the administration will pivot to prevent a total equity meltdown.The Macro Backdrop: Oil shocks and a Fed cornered The primary headwind for Q2 is undeniably the energy market. With Brent crude spiking above $100/barrel, headline inflation is rearing its head again. S&P Global warns that while the US is better insulated as a net exporter than in decades past, the "inflationary consequences" are unavoidable.This leaves the Fed in a precarious position. Markets are now pricing in a "higher-for-longer" scenario as the central bank balances supply-driven inflation against a cooling labor market. While a 25-bps cut is still penciled in for late 2026, the Q2 outlook remains a "growth scare" rather than an imminent recession.The legacy of "Liberation Day" and the 2025 tariff regime To understand the price action of Q2 2026, one must think of it against the shift in trade policy that occurred on April 2, 2025, known as "Liberation Day."This executive order introduced a sweeping 10% reciprocal tariff on all imports, with significantly higher rates for countries like China (up to 45% when combined with previous measures), Canada, and Mexico. The immediate reaction in 2025 was a historic "shock to the system," causing the S&P 500 to flirt with bear market territory and the Nasdaq to enter one briefly in April 2025.However, the "Liberation Day" theme in 2026 has changed from a source of panic into a valuation test.Many of the leading technology firms, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," are currently trading at valuation levels that are nearly as attractive as the troughs reached during the initial 2025 tariff sell-off. The lessons of 2025 taught the market that while tariffs introduce policy uncertainty and alter expected returns, the resilience of the US economy, boosted by tax rebates and a pivot toward domestic manufacturing can eventually stabilize sentiment.As we move through Q2 2026, the question is whether the market can repeat this stabilization in the face of a secondary geopolitical shock.US Indices: Technical Levels and the Search for a Floor The S&P 500 cash index found major resistance at the 7,000 level in late January 2026, a psychological and technical barrier that triggered a significant reversal. Since then, the index has been searching for a durable support zone.Primary Support at 6145: This support zone is directly linked to the price action seen post-Liberation Day in 2025. It serves as a historical "floor" where institutional buyers have previously stepped in.The 6000 Level: This level may come into play and represents a crucial area for bulls to defend. A failure here would open the door to a deeper correction.Outlook: The current sentiment is one of "opportunistic bullishness." Rather than chasing the bearish momentum, market participants should look for signs of a turn higher near these key support levels, supported by the expectation of a market-friendly Federal Reserve.Something that piqued my interest this week was historical performance based on the first 59 days of the year. The table below outlines the 20 worst starts to a year for the S&P 500 (based on the first 59 trading days) from 1928 through 2026.The most striking observation is that a bad start does not guarantee a bad year. In fact, the market often staged massive recoveries.Positive Finishes: Out of the 19 completed years on this "Worst Starts" list, 11 of them (58%) ended the full calendar year in positive territory.The "V" Recovery: In many cases, the "Day 60 to Year-End" returns were not just positive, but explosive.For example:1933: Fell -12.6% early, then rallied +64.8% to finish up +44.1%.2020: Fell -18.6% (the worst start on record), then rallied +42.8% to finish up +16.3%. Source: Creativeplanning, LSEG The Nasdaq 100 (NDX): AI Exhaustion vs. Structural GrowthThe Nasdaq 100 is currently grappling with "AI exhaustion," as the initial frenzy surrounding artificial intelligence has given way to a more sober assessment of valuation and capital expenditure. The weekly chart has become difficult to justify as bullish in the short term, as price action breaks through established support levels.Major Support at 22500: This zone represented major resistance in 2025 and is now the first line of defense for the tech sector.The 20000 Psychological Handle: A major zone spanning from 20,000 to 20,224, which aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent multi-year move. This is arguably the most critical support level for the NDX in 2026.Fundamental Counterpoint: Despite technical weakness, the "AI data-center build" remains in its early stages. Top technology firms are on track to spend $700 billion on capex in 2026, a 36% year-over-year increase. This acyclic investment provides a fundamental "floor" for the index that traditional technical analysis might overlook.Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, March 30, 2026 Source: TradingView The Dow Jones Industrial Average: A Potential Value HavenThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is viewed as offering a potentially more attractive backdrop for bullish continuation compared to the tech-heavy indices. Having stalled at the 50,000 handle, the Dow is testing support levels that could offer a more stable entry point.Key Support at 45244: This level represents a 100% measured move of the 2022 sell-off and is a major technical pivot.Secondary Support at 43,325: A prior resistance-turned-support zone that has historical significance.Outlook: If buyers can stage a defense near the 45,000 psychological level in early Q2, the Dow may lead a broader market recovery as investors rotate out of overvalued growth and into resilient industrial and financial names.Dow Jones Daily Chart, March 30, 2026 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks rebound slightly with President Trump still attempting to calm MarketsOil prices are still playing tricks on broader sentiment, with the conflict now entering its fifth weekExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 General sentiment has not worsened following President Trump's attempts on Monday morning to ease concerns surrounding the current narrative.As the conflict extends into its fifth week, skepticism grows regarding the initial deadline given for how long the operation would last. Investors are increasingly worried about the possibility that the situation may deteriorate further before it improves.Over the weekend, the Pentagon announced preparations for a limited ground operation to conclude the ongoing war. This announcement evoked comparisons to the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, though the President's morning message on Truth Social helped alleviate some anxiety. Donald Trump's Morning Truth Social Post. March 30, 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell just delivered a speech at a conference at Harvard, reiterating that the Federal Reserve is well-equipped to handle current challenges – He provided further insights into the impact of tariffs and expressed an optimistic outlook on the economy, which contributed to the ongoing extension higher in Stock Markets.One of the better comments for investors came from the fact that the Fed Chair did not deem that Private Credit stress would contaminate other parts of the Financial System, a source of general concern in recent weeks.Despite a rebound in WTI Crude prices above the symbolic $100 mark, along with a similar increase in the US dollar, Market Participants appear to be looking ahead. All US benchmarks are rallying, with yields also easing across the board. These upward movements will be welcomed after last week's troubling market activity; However, stocks are not entirely out of trouble yet, and there is still a significant chance that this upward movement may just be a temporary retracement, especially in the absence of a long-term solution.To gauge today’s market direction, let’s examine the intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:Markets Today: Geopolitical premium drives markets, focus shifts to Fed and US jobs reportBorrowed peace pays hefty interest – North American Session Market Wrap for March 27Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:43 AM ET) – Source: TradingView – March 30, 2026 The rebound in today's action is broad, but Tech and Producer Manufacturing, at both extremes of the traditional beta-spectrum, are the two laggards in general de-leveraging for the former and profit-taking for the latter.Luckily for the general Market, some heavy names like Microsoft and Amazon are doing some heavy lifting and sustaining the general, more positive tone.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow faked out below its January 2025 record level (45,280), notably holding the lower bound of its bear channel to the T.The short-term action is indeed back into the bulls' hands for the time being, with the mini-bullish hammer formation on the current 4H candle, but crossing above the Momentum Pivot (45,750) will be necessary to confirm the daily rebound.Check out if buyers can actually manage a break of the channel's upper bound (~46,270), as failing to do so would maintain the mid-term bearish trajectory – We are still at a very interesting longer-run pivot in Stock Markets (Daily Stock outlook coming up tomorrow).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels45,700 to 45,900 Momentum Pivot46,270 Channel top and short-term resistanceResistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,000Support LevelsJanuary 2025 Highs and War Lows 45,280Channel and Morning lows 44,840Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500Major Support 43,500 to 43,750Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is in a rough stretch, tumbling 3% in last week's action right below its major 23,000 Support.Bulls are now attempting a rally from the area, but won't be gaining much traction until they break and close above the past Monday lows (23,600) – Tech sales are back in action, so make sure to keep a cautious eye if looking for deals.On the short-term, bulls will want to break 23,400, while bears will want to see a break and close below 22,940.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSeptember 2025 Pivot 23,300 to 23,400August 2025 Pivot now Resistance 23,500 to 23,650Major 2026 range lows 23,800 to 24,00024,450 to 25,550 resistanceKey Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support Levels22,900 to 23,000 higher timeframe major support22,600 August 2025 Support ZoneEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 wicked at its 6,300 Major psychological support, bouncing 100 points since but still not out of its long-term bearish price action.After failing to generate a consistent move above the 6,450 pivot area, the action now looks quite confused, but still more favorable for a small rebound after the swift drop.A close above 6,440 would point to a more extended rally aheadThe top 4H 5-period MA would be a first targetClosing below 6,360 gives the advantage back to the bearsS&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,442 War Lows Current Pivot (bullish above6,570 to 6,600 Failed Double Bottom Pivotal resistance6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,360 to 6,380 Key August 2025 Support & Channel Lows6,300 psychological level (morning lows)January 2025 ATH 6,152Safe Trades and Keep track of headlines and Bitcoin over the weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Economists have downgraded the U.S. outlook as the Iran conflict and higher energy prices are expected to push inflation higher, weaken consumption, and slow GDP growth.Inflation forecasts have risen sharply, and the Fed may delay rate cuts until it is clearer whether energy-driven price pressures will persist.The economy is still growing, supported partly by AI and data center investment, but recession risk has increased and growth is becoming more fragile and dependent on fewer supports. Economists have clearly downgraded their outlook for the U.S. economy, concluding that the war with Iran and rising energy prices will weigh increasingly heavily on economic activity in the coming months. At the center of these concerns are higher inflation, weaker consumption, slower GDP growth, and a deteriorating labor market. More and more often, the conflict in the Middle East is being viewed not as a temporary disruption, but as a new inflationary shock that could make it harder to maintain a balance between growth and price stability.Inflation is once again becoming a bigger problemAccording to a Bloomberg survey, the average forecast for growth in the PCE index—one of the most important measures of inflation in the U.S.—has risen for this year to 3.1% from the previous 2.6%. This is a significant shift, showing that economists are beginning to assume a more lasting impact of higher energy prices on prices across the entire economy. An additional warning signal comes from the OECD, which expects average inflation in G20 countries to reach 4% this year, whereas as recently as December it had projected 2.8%.At present, the conflict is having its strongest impact through the fuel and energy markets. Gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen by more than 30% this month, to around $4 per gallon, marking the biggest jump since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Higher fuel and transportation costs are already increasing the burden on households, and in the coming months they may also translate into higher food prices and prices for other consumer goods. There are also concerns about fertilizer shortages, which could push prices in stores even higher.Economic growth is weakening, and the labor market is sending worse signalsThe worsening outlook is also visible in economic growth forecasts. Economists now expect U.S. GDP to grow by 2.3% this year, compared with the earlier forecast of 2.5%. The scale of the revision does not yet suggest a sharp downturn, but it does confirm that the economy is beginning to feel the effects of rising energy costs and greater uncertainty more clearly. Iran war, crude oil spike prompt upgrade of US inflation forecasts, source: Bloomberg Weaker forecasts also apply to the labor market. The expected average monthly number of new jobs has been revised down to 43,000 from 70,000, while the average unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5%. This means that the labor market should remain relatively stable, but the pace of improvement is expected to be much weaker than previously assumed. At the same time, the probability of a recession over the next 12 months has increased from 25% to 30%, showing that concerns about the economy’s condition are becoming more widespread.The Fed may wait longer before cutting interest ratesHigher inflation and greater uncertainty have also affected expectations for the Federal Reserve. Economists have pushed back their forecast for the first interest rate cut to September, concluding that the Fed will need more time to assess whether the rise in energy prices is temporary or whether it is beginning to spread more permanently throughout the economy. This is an important change, because until recently the market had been counting on faster monetary easing that could support consumption and investment.Wall Street is lowering expectations, but it is not yet talking about a crisisA more cautious view is also evident among the largest financial institutions. Goldman Sachs assesses the risk of recession at 30% and assumes that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.6% by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, has lowered its forecast for consumption growth in 2026 to 1.7% from 2.0%, indicating that higher energy prices will largely offset the positive impact of larger tax refunds. The S&P 500 index is at its lowest level in six months, source: TradingView Even so, a deep downturn scenario is not yet dominant. Some economists believe that the U.S. economy may still grow at around 2% in 2026, mainly thanks to investments in data centers and the artificial intelligence sector. These are areas less dependent on expensive imported energy than traditional industries. However, this scenario is resting on an increasingly narrow foundation, as it depends mainly on sustained investor optimism toward AI and on the resilience of spending by wealthier consumers.Consumption is still holding up, but that resilience may be limitedSo far, consumer behavior data do not show a clear breakdown. JPMorgan and Bank of America indicate that by mid-March there were no strong signs of a slowdown in credit card spending. This suggests that American households are still maintaining relatively solid purchasing activity. Economists note, however, that even a quick end to the conflict would not necessarily mean a quick disappearance of its effects. The impact on the oil market, transportation, and production costs may persist much longer, sustaining inflationary pressure and limiting the strength of any rebound. The U.S. economy is becoming more fragileThe current picture of the American economy does not yet point to a sharp deterioration in conditions, but it clearly shows the system’s growing fragility. Higher energy prices are pushing inflation upward, weaker labor market and GDP forecasts are weighing on sentiment, and the Fed may be forced to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. As a result, the U.S. economy remains on a growth path, but it is increasingly dependent on a few narrow pillars, such as AI investment and the relative resilience of consumption. The war with Iran is therefore beginning to act as a new destabilizing force—one that is not yet triggering a recession, but is clearly increasing the risk that the economy will become less resilient to future shocks. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Middle East uncertainty dominated the week, sending the Nasdaq into official correction territory (down >10%)The US Dollar is eyeing its strongest monthly gain since July 2025The week ahead is anchored by crucial US data, including the Non-Farm Payrolls/Jobs Report and Retail Sales, as well as Eurozone inflation figures.Read More: US: Inflation is rising, the Fed is waiting, and forecasts are getting weakerAnother week dominated by the happenings in the Middle East. The uncertainty around whether or not a deal would materialize between the US, Israel and Iran kept markets on edge and hanging on the words of President Trump.Markets hovered between brief bouts of risk-on sentiment but the risk off environment dominated the majority of the time. As I write this, the US is waiting for troops to land in the Middle East with about 3,000 troops from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division expected to land Friday.This was followed by a Wall Street Journal report later in the day that the Pentagon is ​looking at sending ‌up to 10,000 additional ​ground troops ​to the Middle East ⁠to ​give President Donald ​Trump more military options. This comes as President Trump ​weighs peace talks with ‌Tehran, ​citing ⁠Department of Defense ​officials with ​knowledge ⁠of the planning. Heading into the weekend, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq retreated to six-month lows on Friday, as a sell-off in technology stocks weighed heavily on the broader market. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained relatively flat for the period, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are now pacing toward their fifth consecutive week of losses.This downturn highlights a period of extreme uncertainty, evidenced by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) climbing 1.57 points to 29.01, a clear sign that investor anxiety is reaching a fever pitch.The Nasdaq’s recent performance officially confirms a move into correction territory, ending Thursday more than 10% below its record close. It follows in the footsteps of the Russell 2000, which was the first major index to signal a correction last week.Meanwhile, the commodities complex has faced its own share of volatility. After hitting a four-month low of $4,097.99 on Monday, spot gold staged a recovery to trade above $5,300/oz for much of the week. Despite this bounce, the precious metal remains under significant pressure as markets continue to price in a more hawkish outlook for interest rates. Source: Investing.com Silver and PGMs (platinum group metals) saw a reprieve on Friday, with spot silver gaining 4.4% to reach $71.01 per ounce, while platinum and palladium rose by 3% and 3.7%, respectively.In the energy sector, oil prices edged higher on Friday, though Brent crude is still eyeing its first weekly decline since early February.This comes amid shifting geopolitical headlines, President Trump indicated that talks with Iran were progressing, though he offered little in the way of specifics. The underlying supply crunch remains severe, however, as the conflict has sidelined roughly 11 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency has characterized the current situation as a supply crisis more severe than the combined impact of the dual oil shocks of the 1970s.How did FX markets perform? The US Dollar is eyeing its strongest monthly gain since July 2025, fueled by safe-haven demand and rising expectations for a domestic rate hike. The Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.973 on Friday, up 2.4% for March.This strength has pushed the Yen toward the critical 160.00 level, a threshold widely seen as a trigger for potential BoJ intervention. Despite rising Japanese bond yields and hawkish signals from policymakers, the Yen remains pressured by Japan’s high sensitivity to energy import costs.Elsewhere, the Euro held steady at $1.1529, while Sterling marked its fourth straight decline to $1.3311.Risk-sensitive currencies also struggled; the Australian Dollar touched a two-month low of $0.6887, having shed 3% since the start of the conflict. This leaves the Aussie as the second-worst major performer this month, trailing only the Indian Rupee, which has dropped nearly 4%.Markets are currently focused on whether central banks will hike interest rates in April following energy price spikes caused by conflict in the Middle East. While markets are pricing in a high probability of hikes, I think this may be premature.The Week Ahead Here is the summary of key events for next week in the US, Eurozone (EU), and UK:United StatesRetail Sales (Wednesday): Expected to be lifted by strong auto sales, but there is concern that rising energy costs are becoming "demand-destructive," leaving consumers with less money for discretionary spending.Non-Farm Payrolls / Jobs Report (Friday): This is the marquee event. While a rebound to around +60,000 jobs is expected (following a weak February impacted by strikes and weather), the underlying trend is described as "low-hire, low-fire," with most sectors outside of government and healthcare actually losing workers over the past year.ISM Manufacturing Index: Likely to show strength as customers rush orders to get ahead of potential price hikes in manufactured goods.Eurozone (EU)Economic Sentiment (Monday): Sentiment is expected to drop significantly. Consumer confidence has already "taken a nosedive" due to the dual fears of geopolitical turmoil and higher prices.Inflation Data (Tuesday): Preliminary March readings are expected to show a sharp increase in headline inflation driven by surging petrol and diesel prices at the pump.Manufacturing vs. Services: Analysts will be looking at the European Commission's data to see how energy-intensive industries are holding up compared to the services sector, which has recently seen a drop in activity.United Kingdom (UK)BoE Decision Maker Panel (DMP) Survey: This survey of CFOs will be closely watched for wage expectations. While wage growth has been falling, "hawks" at the Bank of England are concerned that expectations remain higher than desired.Inflation Expectations: There is specific concern regarding consumer perceptions of inflation, which have spiked alongside petrol prices. This is noted as one of the few data points that might "panic" the Bank of England into a rate hike.Rate Hike Speculation: Despite market pricing of three hikes this year, ING notes reports that BoE Governor Bailey was "infuriated" by the hawkish repricing, suggesting the bank is further from hiking than investors believe.ChinaPMI Data (Tuesday/Wednesday): The focus is on whether manufacturing returns to expansionary territory.Official NBS PMI (Tuesday): Expected to rise to 50.0 (up from 49.0 in February). This would be a significant milestone as the index has been in contraction for 10 of the last 11 months.Caixin (RatingDog) Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday): Expected to continue its trend of outperforming the official NBS indicator.JapanTokyo CPI (Friday): Markets will closely watch inflation data for the capital. Both headline and core inflation are expected to remain stable in March, as rising gasoline prices are likely offset by government utility subsidies and steady food costs.Economic Activity Data: February figures for Industrial Production and Retail Sales are expected to decline, partially reversing the strong gains seen in January. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index (DXY) The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently testing a critical juncture as it battles a confluence of technical resistance levels.After a sharp recovery from the January lows, price action has carved out an ascending channel, but the bullish momentum is now stalling near the 100.617 handle.While the index remains above its key SMAs (20, 50, and 200), a failure to break and hold above the psychological 100.00 level could trigger a retracement toward the 98.72 support zone.The RSI is currently hovering around 61, indicating that while bulls maintain control, the window for a sustained breakout is narrowing.Traders should watch for a decisive daily close above the channel for continuation, or a breakdown below 99.57 to confirm a short-term reversal.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, March 27, 2026 Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks reach new War lows as Oil continues to explode with Brent back above $110Hopes for a peace deal were short-lived, with Markets now pricing an escalation over the weekendExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Equities are feeling the intense heat of the swift return to risk-aversion. US stock benchmarks have dropped to new lows since the conflict began, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 under the most severe pressure (while the Dow Jones is not there yet). Across the board, major indices are down 1% and more for the session, with the pump-fake from Monday now turning against itself: Any hopes for a quick peace deal have proven short-lived, and the market's previous easing in sentiment was merely a timid pause. Bulls who bought that dip are now paying the consequences.The cause: A classic, violent rebound in Energy markets: Oil continues to surge, with Brent crude pushing back above the critical $110 per barrel mark. This spike in energy costs is logically reawakening inflation fears and dragging down risk assets – But this time, Gold is actually faring better.The particular turn comes from the fact that traders are actively pricing in the risk of a severe escalation over the weekend: The impending arrival of a 4,500-strong Marine fleet in the Middle East is adding to the immense geopolitical anxiety. Investors are tracking headlines by the minute, waiting to see if an anticipated Iranian counter-proposal to a security deal actually materializes.As traditional markets close, all eyes will turn to Bitcoin over the weekend. Because it trades 24/7, it will act as the primary real-time barometer for global sentiment.Let's spot where today's rough price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:Gold (XAU/USD) bounces despite the Oil rally, a first since the US-Iran War – In-depth outlookChart alert: WTI crude oil minor pullback over, start of new bullish leg for breakout above $102.25Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:10 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – March 27, 2026 Today's selloff is surprisingly pulled by the largest Cap Stocks and isn't so widespread, with Energy Stocks naturally appreciating form the bounce in commodities, but Utilities and Industrials are somehow rising despite the broad pessimistic mood – A turn to defensives?Among the laggards, some large-cap Finance Stocks are getting hammered, including JP Morgan, Visa and Mastercard, while virtually all the Mag 7s are also dropping, and Amazon being the worst performer of them all.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView DJIA has officially re-entered its bear channel after a failed attempt to break above – Bulls could no hold the 4H 50-period MA, rejecting the Major 46,600 intraday level signaled throughout our analysis from this week.Now 300 point shy from its War lows, the Index will face pressure ahead if the narrative doesn't get better, particularly with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq breaking their own lows.A short-term target for the current selloff would be the lows of the channel around 44,500-44,600.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels45,700 to 45,900 August Pivot46,300 intraday momentum resistance (4H 50-period MA)Resistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport LevelsJanuary 2025 Highs and War Lows 45,280 Channel lows 44,600Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500Major Support 43,500 to 43,750Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now testing a pivotal support that preceded the rally to its end-2025 records.The ongoing selloff is a brutal one, with a measured move hinting at 23,000 if bulls fail to hold the current levels. Watch out for a gap lower to there depending on weekend narratives.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAugust 2025 Pivot at 23,500 to 23,650Major 2026 range lows 23,800 to 24,00024,450 to 25,550 resistanceMini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsSeptember 2025 pivotal Support at 23,300 to 23,400Session lows 23,290Next Main Support at 23,000 higher timeframe supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 now officially broke its prior war lows, extending within its Major downward channel.The next support is at 6,360 to 6,380; if bulls can't manage to show up significantly there, the Index may be doomed for a harsher correction ahead (Currently only -8.50% from its ATH)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,442 War Lows Current Pivot6,570 to 6,600 Double Bottom Pivot6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,360 to 6,380 Key August 2025 Support & Channel Lows6,300 psychological levelJanuary 2025 ATH 6,152Safe Trades and Keep track of headlines and Bitcoin over the weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The progressive explosion in Crude prices, driven by failed hopes of a resolution to the Middle East conflict, has sent global assets struggling.Investors and traders have been wondering how Gold, as a safe-haven and a traditional hedge against inflation, has been struggling so much throughout the entire month with bombs thrown around the Gulf.Metals were actually large victims of their own prior success – After consistently rallying since October 2024, the asset class burnt its own wings.Heavily chased commodities can see brutal swings when demand dampens: as money flows rushed into Crude and the fundamental backdrop turned more hawkish, investors turned away from the shiny metals. Metals Performance since Early 2026 – Source: TradingView. March 27, 2026 With most asset managers already long the asset class, as expressed in the February BoFA Survey, no one was there to withhold the pressure.But after a 25% correction in Gold, we could see the Bullion actually dominate its peers in the coming days – So why now?A few technical patterns are providing some demand for it, like the 200-Day MA acting as support (see below). Still, more importantly, Gold is the only asset rallying while stocks, bonds, and other metals like Silver and Platinum are tumbling.It has been a rough stretch for Metals, but Goldie could rise from the ashes, particularly if investors start to price in further escalation (as seen with Oil rallying back to $98 today).After large corrections, it wouldn't be surprising to see the ultimate safe-haven gain back some demand with global economy projected to struggle .Let's attack a high-level intraday analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) as it attempts to break its curse amid the ongoing war. Read More:Chart alert: WTI crude oil minor pullback over, start of new bullish leg for breakout above $102.25Markets Today: Risk-Off sentiment supports the Dollar as US consumer sentiment data lies aheadLogical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewMulti-timeframe analysis for Gold, starting from the Weekly to intradayGold Weekly timeframe Gold Weekly Chart, March 27, 2026, Source: TradingView It would definitely not be crazy to assume that the correction for Gold has come a long way, particularly as the selling erased most of the extension the Metal did in 2026.Weekly RSI is now back to neutral, allowing future movement to flow with less resistance.Tumbling close to 25% to $4,100 lows, the Bullion rejected its support in an attempt to regain its Major momentum pivot – Also forming a dragonfly doji (more bullish than bearish, but also a sign of hesitancy).Breaking above $4,500 and closing there on the daily could easily relaunch the commodity towards $5,000 – with the current state of Markets, that would mostly happen on a slow grind higher.But with dojis, one also has to consider the downside – A daily close below the 50-Week MA $3,965 opens the door for a larger correction to $3,500 (less probable for now).Gold Daily Chart Gold Daily Chart, March 27, 2026, Source: TradingView Looking closer, Gold did find significant support at its 200-Day MA, and after its previous day's failed dip below the key $4,400 level, bulls are now taking the advantage, particularly after a Daily bullish RSI divergence.Momentum still seems hesitant, and it will stay the same as long as prices remain within the $4,300 to $4,500 range –Any daily close above $4,550 (December 2025 record) would launch the commodity higher.After the large correction however, it would be difficult to see it suddenly explode (as said before, a progressive grind higher would make more technical sense).Levels of interest for Gold trading: Resistance Levels:$4,550 December 2025 record (intraday resistance)February Wick Pivot $4,675 - $4,725 (bullish above)$4,850 to $4,900 Key Resistance$5,100 Pivotal Resistance$5,400 mini-resistanceSupport Levels:Pivotal Support $4,355 – $4,400Main Channel Lows Support & 200-Day MA $4,100Next Support $3,880 to $4,000$3,200 to $3,500 Major SupportGold 2H Chart Gold 2H Chart, March 27, 2026, Source: TradingView Gold is getting back to a more bullish momentum from seller exhaustion – currently contained by its 2H 50-period MA on the intraday, bulls will want to push above in order to materialize a more significant rebound.Keep a close eye on the triangle formation for upward and downward breakout boundaries – When Markets reopen next week, traders can expect significant movement, hence, watch out for your size and orders!Safe Trades and keep track of the conflict progress over the weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways USD strength fading within range: Post-FOMC USD strength lacks follow-through, with the US Dollar Index nearing key resistance (100.10–100.54), suggesting limited upside and potential near-term exhaustion.Hawkish ECB supporting EUR: Rising inflation risks (linked to the US-Iran conflict and energy shock) have pushed the European Central Bank toward a more hawkish stance, narrowing US–Eurozone yield spreads and underpinning a potential EUR/USD rebound.EUR/USD at key technical inflection: Pair is holding above 1.1495 support; a break above 1.1573 could drive a rebound toward 1.1635–1.1673, while a drop below 1.1495 would resume the broader downtrend toward 1.1455–1.1400. The initial pop-up in US dollar strength following the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, 18 March 2026, does not have a clear positive follow-through, as the US Dollar Index remains trapped within a complex medium-term sideways range configuration that has been in place since 29 May 2025.The recent 3-day rally in the US Dollar Index, which began on Tuesday, 24 March 2026, has almost reached the medium-term range resistance zone of 100.10/100.54, where minor short-term US dollar strength may be dissipated at this juncture (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: US Dollar Index medium-term trend as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Hawkish ECB ‘saves’ the euro for now Fig. 2: Narrowing of 2-year yield discount spread between Eurozone sovereign bond and US Treasury note as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) A hawkish stance or guidance from the US Federal Reserve does not necessarily result in sustained US dollar strength, as the currency’s trajectory is ultimately shaped by relative monetary policy dynamics across other major developed market central banks.The European Central Bank (ECB) has voiced concerns of stagflation risk arising from the ongoing US-Iran war that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing global oil and energy flows significantly.Even though, in the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting on 19 March 2026, where it left its key policy deposit rate unchanged at 2% since June 2025, it has issued a hawkish guidance where the ECB prioritized heightened inflation risk over demand destruction that led to the Eurozone’s interest rate swaps market to price in at least two interest rate hikes by ECB before 2026 ends.In a slew of public speeches made this week so far, key ECB officials have maintained their stances of combating inflation as a primary initiative over demand growth concerns arising from a potential prolonged global oil and energy supply shock.ECB President Lagarde said the ECB will act decisively and swiftly if the current surge in energy costs risks a broader bout of inflation.ECB Governing Council member Nagel added that the ECB may start to hike interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting in April if the inflation outlook continues to accelerate due to the US-Iran war.The European Central Bank’s increasingly hawkish stance has driven a further narrowing of the 2-year yield discount differential between Eurozone sovereign bonds and US Treasuries (see Fig. 2).The 2-year yield spread of the Eurozone sovereign bond over the US Treasury note has inched higher since its major bullish breakout in September 2025, from -1.6% to -1.26% at this time of writing.A further narrowing of the 2-year sovereign bond yield discount between the Eurozone and the US is likely to support at least a minor recovery in the EUR/USD.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective.EUR/USD – 3-day decline stalling at “Expanding Wedge” support Fig. 3: EUR/USD minor trend as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The recent 3-day decline of 1% seen in the EUR/USD from the Monday, 23 March 2026 minor swing high of 1.1640 has started to stall at the minor “Expanding Wedge” support on Thursday, 26 March 2026.Watch the 1.1495 key short-term pivotal support on the EUR/USD, breaking above 1.1573 near-term resistance (also the 20-day moving average) may unleash a further corrective push up towards the upper limit of the minor “Expanding Wedge” configuration, with the next intermediate resistances coming in at 1.1635 and 1.1673 (also the key 200-day moving average) (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.1495 invalidates the corrective rebound scenario for the multi-month bearish impulsive down move sequence to resume, exposing the next intermediate supports at 1.1455 and 1.1400 in the first step.Key elements to support the bullish bias on EUR/USD The recent 3-day decline has stalled at the minor “Expanding Wedge” support in place since the 13 March 2026 minor swing low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has traced out a bullish divergence condition near its oversold region. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It is a year of pump-fakes for all asset classes, and Cryptocurrencies could not sustain the pressure.Just last week, one could have imagined that Cryptos were isolated from the anxiety dampening global assets – but it was too soon to assume that things were going to be so simple.Markets are intercorrelated, and depending on where they stand on the risk spectrum, assets can react differently to pessimistic events.And the bearish turn that took over Markets since the rise of inflationary fears has swept virtually everything on the risk spectrum, from safe havens (as seen in Bonds and Metals) to riskier Equities and Cryptocurrency Markets.When the common denominator, the US Dollar, shines, everything hurts – With Crude and general energy prices increasingly pressuring all sides of the global economy, it is difficult to find a sustainable hedge.While Cryptos offer diversification from traditional asset movements, they are also highly sensitive to the gravity of risk aversion – Bitcoin attempted to push above its $75,000 major psychological level shortly after the 20 million BTC issuance, but also dragged the entire asset class down when it failed to form a breakout above.The issue with today's session, particularly, is that selloffs are gripping higher-beta assets even harder, as seen in the Nasdaq's 2% plunge, and altcoins just can't resist.Uncertainty should drag into at least tomorrow and, most probably, also towards the weekend. At least, Crypto markets aren't closed over the weekend, so if the Trump Administration really attempts to end the war, they will be the first to react.The harder part, however, is that weekend moves, if anything happens during that time, tend to see the largest corrections. Current Session in Cryptos – March 26, 2026 (14:30). Source: FInviz As traders brace for uncertain days ahead, let's dive right into the intraday Charts with technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) – Are there interesting spots to trade Cryptos in the event of volatility spikes over the coming days?Let's discover this now. Read More:Optimism fades and Nasdaq burns its wings – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookChart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewBitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView After failing to hold above the quintessential $75,000 milestone, pressured by a heavier FOMC, Bitcoin is now forming a clear Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern.There is still a possibility that better news prevent the pattern to unfold, but the price action is not on the Bull side for now – At least, it may allow to buy-some dips.Reactions when we get there will be necessary to estimate if this is indeed a good opportunity, but a return to $60,000 - $61,000 (H&S target), would mark a triple bottom and potentially provide another opportunity to buy a dip.Keep in mind that a longer-term H&S pointed towards $55,000, so make sure to stagger entries in the event of wider corrections.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot (50 and 200-4H MA)$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (H&S Target ~$61,500)$59,935 February Lows$52,000 to $58,000 Next support and 200-Week MA ($55,000 Mid-point)$40,000 Mid-2024 breakout supportResistance Levels:$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot (50 and 200-4H MA)March Highs $76,003 (Pre-FOMC highs)$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (50-Day MA)$90,000 to $95,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, March 26, 2026– Source: TradingView Ethereum is also forming a Head and Shoulders pattern in recent action, pointing to an almost precise test of the $1,750 Major Support (which acted as bottom last time it reached).To confirm the fall, look for a break and 4H close below the $2,000 Mini-Support; for those only looking for entries, placing orders around the double bottom could be wise.Keep in mind that ETH is also evolving within a bear channel which sees its bottom around $1,580 in case the selloff extends.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:Mini-support $2,000$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows (H&S target)$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:March Highs $2,385 (testing)$2,100 to $2,300 June War support now Key Pivot$2,500 to $2,700 June 2025 Key Support now Resistance (Channel Highs)$3,000 to $3,200 Pivotal resistance (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highs Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

META plunges 7% on layoffs and landmark court verdict.Alphabet down 2% as overall sentiment weighs on risk assets as well.Both stocks broke key support levels, shifting their outlook to distinctly bearish, as geopolitical fears (US-Iran war) also weigh on broader market sentiment.Until Alphabet can stabilize and form a higher low, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.Most Read: AUD/USD: The technical squeeze between 0.6980 and 0.7070The technology sector faced a turbulent trading session as two of its largest titans, Meta Platforms and Alphabet (Google), saw their share prices under pressure.A combination of legal setbacks, internal restructuring, and shifting investor sentiment toward "AI fatigue" weighed heavily on their performance.The Nasdaq 100 index was down around 1.1% at the time of writing with Meta platforms trading down around 7% on the day. Source: TradingView Overall sentiment has taken a hit today on fears that the US-Iran war will not come to an end as the two sides appear some ways off from a deal.This has weighed on market sentiment as Oil prices are also up around 5%.However, both Meta and Google are also facing their own challenges. Let us take a look at these challenges individually and see what the technical picture for both companies tells us.Meta Platforms (META): Legal blows and workforce reshuffling META is under pressure which is largely being fueled by a landmark legal verdict and news of further internal job cuts.The Social Media Addiction Verdict: A jury found Meta (and YouTube) liable in a high-profile case involving social media addiction. The jury ruled that Meta’s platform designs—specifically Instagram—contributed to harmful, addictive behavior in minors and that the company failed to warn users of these risks. Meta was assigned 70% of the responsibility, resulting in $6 million in damages ($3 million compensatory and $3 million punitive). While the dollar amount is nominal for a company of Meta's size, investors fear the legal precedent could open the floodgates for thousands of similar pending lawsuits.Ongoing Layoffs: Meta confirmed it is laying off several hundred more employees across divisions including Facebook, Instagram, Reality Labs, and its sales units. While CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s "Year of Efficiency" was initially cheered by Wall Street in 2023-2024, the continued cuts in 2026 suggest a more painful transition as the company redirects capital away from traditional social media operations toward intensive AI development.META Platforms Daily Chart, March 26, 2026 Source: TradingView The technical outlook for META has shifted from a period of consolidation into a distinctly bearish phase as the stock has broken the November 2025 swing low.This leaves META trading at levels last seen in April/May 2025.The stock price is now trading below all the key moving averages like the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs.SMA 200 (Dark Blue - $688.53): The stock is now trading well below its long-term trendline. This often signals a transition from a bull market to a structural downtrend.SMA 50 (Orange - $645.54) & SMA 100 (Purple - $643.02): The price failed to find support at these intermediate levels. Crucially, the 50-day SMA is beginning to curl downward, suggesting that short-term momentum is now firmly in favor of the bears.The stock is currently testing a psychological support zone around the $560–$580 mark. If it fails to hold here, the next major historical support sits near the $520–$540 level (the lows seen in May 2025).Any relief rally will face heavy "confluence" resistance at $645, where the 50 and 100-day SMAs converge. This area, which acted as support in February, will now likely act as a "ceiling" for the price.Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Bear market whispers and spending anxiety Alphabet’s stock performance was similarly sluggish, with shares hovering near $289.59. Despite beating earnings estimates earlier in the quarter, the stock has struggled to maintain momentum, sliding toward what technical analysts are calling "bear market territory."AI Capex Concerns: The primary weight on Alphabet is the staggering cost of its AI infrastructure. Investors are growing wary of the "Capex Trap"—the massive capital expenditure required to stay competitive in generative AI without a clear, immediate timeline for a massive return on investment.Institutional Selling: SEC filings revealed that several institutional players, including Threadgill Financial LLC, have begun trimming their positions. Threadgill cut its Alphabet holdings by nearly 35%, a move that mirrors a broader trend of "profit-taking" as funds rotate out of Big Tech and into energy or value stocks.Secondary Legal Pressure: Like Meta, Alphabet’s YouTube was also named in the addiction verdict (assigned 30% liability). This adds to Alphabet’s existing mountain of antitrust challenges globally, creating a "regulatory overhang" that limits the stock's multiple.Alphabet (Google) Daily Chart, March 26, 2026 Source: TradingView The technical picture for Google is quite similar with the stock now trading at November 2025 levels.The stock remains in a long-term uptrend relative to its 200-day average, the short-to-medium-term outlook has deteriorated sharply following a failure at key resistance levels.The price has decisively fallen below both the 50 and 100-day MAs. In early March, the 100-day SMA acted as support, but today’s aggressive sell-off has turned these moving averages into major overhead resistance.The 200-day MA is the ultimate "line in the sand." While the stock is still above this long-term trendline, the trajectory is sloping toward it. A drop to this level would represent a 10% correction from current prices.The stock is approaching the $280–$285 zone. This was a previous consolidation area in late 2025. If this fails to hold, the next stop is the 200-day SMA near $262.Any recovery attempts will likely be capped at the $310–$315 level. The stock would need to reclaim this zone on high volume to negate the current bearish thesis.The road ahead Moving forward the immediate future of global stocks in the short-term will hinge on the Middle East. if oil prices remain elevated markets could remain cautious and risk-off sentiment may prevail. This would not bode well for stocks as a whole.Earlier today, we heard from JPMorgan who said investors are shifting back to cash, similar to 2022. This is a sign of the uncertainty prevalent at the minute and the situation continues to fluctuate on a daily basis as news filters through.Short-term trading may be the best option at the minute with the broader picture unclear.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks face a rougher morning session in the US as optimism around US-Iran talks fadesThe cautious rebound wasn't long, as expected after a consistent failure to see progress in the talksExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The narrative improved throughout this week, but that wasn't without counting another turn from President Trump.As the week went on, Participants could not see a concrete bullish extension materialize, as headlines were definitely not corroborating the idea of better news ahead.After rejecting the 15-point plan from the US Administration, the President soured his precedingly softer tone.Certainly, news of indirect talks soothed what had seemed to be the beginning of an escalation over the last weekend. Still, a failure to even reach a common ground can quickly lead to a sudden re-escalation.And as the 4,500-strong Marine fleet (with heavy Army material) is soon to arrive in the Arabian Sea, traders are now casting doubt on the possibility of easing tensions ahead.Iran seems to be persistent on some of its demands; reaching a deal too soon with the ongoing War damage would surely put a band-aid on Market fears and help ease some pressure on Oil supply. Nonetheless, this could prove temporary, as Iran can then be sure to leverage the power it exerts over the Strait of Hormuz and Energy commodity prices.So either a decisive deal will be reached, or traders can expect the operations to continue. Next week will be the fifth since the commencement of the conflict – beyond this, Markets will turn to a more concerning pricing of a prolonged war.We should learn more about these developments by Friday. Dow Jones – WTI Inverted Correlation continues – Source: TradingView. March 26, 2026 After a stable performance from Equities this week, traders are seeing a reality check in today's session, and this comes as Crude just refuses to remain lower as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains under blockade.Some of the largest names in the US Stock Markets have been struggling throughout the entire week, including Microsoft and Google in previous sessions, but this is now also spreading to Nvidia and Meta (-5.30%!).The indeed Nasdaq Index is now facing the consequences of its previous relative strength, now trading below its key 24,000 level.If the fundamental situation sours further from here, Stock Markets could easily resume their downtrend, having failed to manage a concrete breakout despite the Monday rebound.Let's spot where today's softening price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewChart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish trend resumes below $4,620 as stagflation and oil strength weighLatest on US-Iran, US dollar & UK CPI inflation remains at 3%Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:07 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – March 26, 2026 Except for a few individual names, the Energy sector and small caps in Pharma, the broader Market could not sustain the turn in sentiment.Some clues pointing to this fragile context for equities was the fact that the rebound throughout this week could not generate much traction and consistency across sectors, as indicated in our past session's analysis.Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is facing pressure from its failed breakout above 46,600 – As indicated in our Monday analysis of the Index, as long as bulls can't break this level, buying momentum remains weak.Above 47,000 will be a confirming sign for rebounds.On the other hand, bears should watch the 50-period MA ont he 2H timeframe (currently testing) – any 1H close below 46,200 will maintain the bear channel.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels46,600 intraday momentum resistanceResistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 46,200 (testing)March 8 War lows Pivot 46,200 to 46,300.45,700 to 45,900 August SupportJanuary 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280 (Monday lows)Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now well within bearish territory, extending towards the lows of its 23,840 Support zone.It has remained remarkably resilient throughout the beginning of the conflict and is now paying this price, with its heavy Mag 7 components struggling as risk-sentiment sours (and profit-taking continues).If Bulls can't manage a rebound at 23,840, expect at least a test of the 23,597.The next key support will be at the 23,000 psychological level.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels24,107 2H 50-period MA24,450 to 25,550 resistanceMini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsOctober - November Support 23,840 to 24,000 (testing)August 2025 & War Lows at 23,580 to 23,700Next Main Support at 23,000 higher timeframe supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is tumbling below its key 6,560 support after rejecting 6,650 and now in a decisively bearish formation.6,500 is the next test, breaking it has the potential to test 6,400 (next major psychological support).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Resistance 6,640 to 6,6506,570 to 6,600 Double Bottom Pivot6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,490 to 6,512 October lows6,442 War Lows6,400 Next Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks attempt a continued rebound in the current session, with the narrative seemingly easing in recent daysAfter the previous session's stalling progress, Equities pursue their cautious reboundExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US Stock benchmarks are still attempting to price a cautious but seemingly better narrative around the Middle East conflict into another rebound in today's session.This continues the theme that had shaken Markets in Monday's chaotic, but more positive weekly open: The War doesn't seem to be taking a turn for the worse, hinting at what could really be a four to five-week-long conflict.It would be almost too good to be true to see Donald Trump make good on his words, having announced such a deadline to the ceaseless strikes on Islamic regime targets in Iran.The current War isn't faring well with the American public, and right ahead of the Midterms coming up in November, the President surely doesn't want to aggravate his case.But during wartime, each headline has to be taken with a pinch of salt, particularly with Iran reportedly rejecting Trump's 15-point plan to add their own demands – They are particularly keen on conserving their long-range ballistic missile capabilities, but the world knows how dangerous they have been, so expect this to be a zone of contention.We should learn more on these developments by Friday. Dow Jones – WTI Inverted Correlation sustains – Source: TradingView Despite all the uncertainty, traders should focus more on what is happening in front of them: The Oil-Stocks inverse correlation is the only clear Market development since the beginning of the month; Tracking the commodity will act as a guide to navigate this clouded environment (while headlines do the exact opposite).WTI Oil had gapped lower in recent sessions and held a lower trajectory since, but has stalled its descent around the $88 Level, and this has weighed on Stock Markets since the mid-session.(Don't forget to check out our recent WTI Analysis to have a better guess of where Support and resistance can occur, as long as no real solution is found.In today's action, all Stock Indexes are moving together with no clear outperformer – See more just below.Let's spot where today's cautiously optimistic price action is heading by looking at today’s intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:A better mood is soothing markets, but will it last? – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateGlobal markets swing on US–Iran war headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crudeLatest on US-Iran, US dollar & UK CPI inflation remains at 3%Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:17 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – March 25, 2026 The rebound hasn't seen formed any consistent pattern since Monday, except for the previous session's Manufacturing outperformance – Process Industries and Pharmaceuticals are the only sectors flashing green in today's session.The rest is broadly chaotic, so for individual Stock traders, the best is to look for local ranges to play.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView For the first time since February 26, the Dow Jones is trading above its 4H 50-period Moving Average, a striking progress particularly with the consistent downtrend that had developed since.Combining with a weak, but persistent exit from the March bear channel, it seems that the DJIA is only a few positive headlines from a rebound – 48,000 would be a decent target in that event – Above 48,000, expect the rebound to hold towards 50,000.The only issue is that optimism in such an environment could prove short-lasted, hence with bullish views in the Market, make sure that your size is under control to allow for more flexibility in case things turn sour again.Any session close below 46,300 would continue the downtrend.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsResistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (session highs and major resistance)Momentum Resistance 47,500 to 47,650Key Resistance at 48,00048,400 to 48,500 mini-resistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 46,437March 8 War lows Pivot 46,200 to 46,300.January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280 (Monday lows)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is actually looking more pessimistic than its elder, failing to persistently hold above 24,200 with its RSI actually turning bearish.Breaking 24,150 could see a quick test of the 23,800 support; Even in the event of the rebound, it looks like the tech Index has less inherent strength and could lag on a rally.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels24,387 4H 50-period24,450 to 25,550 Range Pivot (short-term resistance)Mini-intraday Resistance 24,750Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsFebruary Support 24,150October - November Support 23,800 to 24,000Morning lows: August 2025 next Support at 23,580 to 23,700Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 looks right in the middle between bullish and bearish; it remains the Index to trade if you prefer less brutal up-and-down swings.As long as the price action remains above 6,580, the outlook isn't bearish, but not so bullish either:Buyers will want a break above 6,650 to relaunch a bullish outlook.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot 6,640 to 6,6506,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Monday Key Double Bottom support6,490 to 6,512 October lows6,442 Morning Lows6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Keep track of WTI prices!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (25/03/2026): As ever, we join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart in discussing the latest developments in the financial markets. On today’s agenda are recent developments in US-Iran peace talks, the US dollar, and the United Kingdom’s inflation report, which shows CPI remaining at 3%. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsMarkets have begun to reprice the potential for an earlier than expected resolution to the Middle Eastern War, with US-Iran indirect talks reportedly picking upWTI and Brent eased significantly, helping inflation expectations to relax and propping up US Stocks Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.As we are now well into the fourth week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, Market Participants are still looking to see whether we are in for a long ride.At the commencement of the conflict, both the US and Israeli side announced operations spanning around 5 weeks, something that largely got priced out as the War continued and anxious headlines came by the thousand. We are slowly approaching the deadline.The reality of the strategic advances is difficult to estimate, but what is certain is that ballistic missile and drone launches have greatly diminished since the start of the War, from 100 salvos at once to the current 1 or 2 per launch. Could it be enough to compromise the Islamic regime?At least, WTI's correlations with other asset classes during the entire War have generated opportunities to find trades, even if some of the commodity's movements were nothing short of erratic.Check out the almost perfect inverted correlation between WTI and the Dow Jones! Oil and Dow Jones Inverse Correlation. March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView The bottom line remains the same. All that Markets want to know is:Is this War going to drag on for long? Is the Strait of Hormuz going to be relieved? Is Oil heading back down?This is the only thing that matters, and, in fact, the last question will dictate the rest of the Market flows, including US Dollar demand and everything that follows.For now, a ceasefire to April 30 is still shy of 50% priced in. Polymarket odds of a ceasefire. March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView As part of the whole War shenanigans, Investors are slowly turning back to PMI and other economic guidance to see whether rate hikes would actually be warranted or if the economy is facing a standstill amid current economic cycle peak estimates.Data points are diverging across the board – Labor data has been on a roller coaster, with Jobless Claims consistently declining but Non-Farm payrolls correcting.The past session also offered puzzling data for the US, as Manufacturing PMIs just came in with a decent beat (52.4 vs 51 exp) while the stickier Services PMIs are now backing off (51.1 vs 51.7 exp). Tuesday's US PMI releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar In Canada, traders are attempting to price hikes. Still, the latest inflation and growth data haven't yet corroborated that view – and BoC Governor Macklem didn't explicitly indicate anything of the sort.So the general idea is not to overinterpret Market signals; keep looking for quick trades and fade price (sharp) extremes, as no one knows what to do with the current situation.If the best and most knowledgeable are uncertain, the best thing is to assume you should be, too. Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:The Metals space is as confused as traders are – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookGlobal markets swing on US–Iran war headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crudeAUD/USD: The technical squeeze between 0.6980 and 0.7070North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView Global Indexes haven't been able to fully recover their recent drops, but still have made gigantic progress after the US-Iran talks picked up again. Investors will want to see decisive progress before Trump's Friday deadline – Particularly as it will also coincide with the arrival of the 4,500 Marine fleet in the Middle East.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index has remained in its 99.00 to 100.00 elevated range despite the correction in WTI – This implies either catch up, short-dollar opportunity ahead, or the pricing of a new trend.If US Data comes in hot around those levels, a break above 100.00 is not to be fully discounted!Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 Pivot/ResistanceWar Spike and 4H 50-period MA 99.68100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highs100.544 War highsSupport Levels98.70 to 99.00 Support98.00 Key Mid-Range SupportMid-range Pivot 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, March 25, 2026 - Source: TradingView The US Dollar remains on top of recent FX performance.The Petrodollar is somehow largely reversing its losses against the Australian Dollar, but slightly dipping against the Euro and GBP which are on the way to price in hikes at coming meeting.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, March 25, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is losing some of its relative strength as the Loonie correlates more sustainably to movements in Energy commodities – Only appreciating against the AUD which lost some steam.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USD/CAD 4H Chart, March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is now forming a newfound upward channel which hints at a higher timeframe range between 1.3550 to 1.3850/1.39 (the precise high still has to be found).In the event of any retracement, keep a close eye on the 4H 50-period MA (1.3724) as it should indicate relative strength within the range (if sellers or buyers are in control, below or above respectively)Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.38 Pivotal Resistance +/- 100 pips (testing)1.3850 mini-resistance1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 1.37241.3750 Momentum Pivot1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support1.3550 Main 2025 Support (imminent rebound)October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.35US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The North American Calendar is full of interesting events all the way to next Wednesday.The most important event, not shown in the high-tier, but a game changer: the University of Michigan Inflation expectations releasing Friday at 10:00 A.M. ET.For the rest, listen to what the Fed has to say in their flurry of speeches (except for Miran, still irrelevant to this point) and Economic releases to spot if the economy is indeed suffering from the war.Canadian traders will pay close attention to next Tuesday's Canadian GDP data.As always, keep a close eye on Middle East Developments.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Volatility driven by conflicting war narratives: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 swung between risk-on and risk-off as mixed signals on US–Iran negotiations triggered sharp reversals, while prediction markets still show low near-term ceasefire odds.Cross-asset signals point to fragile sentiment: The US Dollar Index remains supported, AUD/USD failed at resistance, and WTI crude oil holds key support—indicating no clear shift to sustained risk-on positioning.Technical resistance caps upside, downside risks persist: Equities are struggling at key moving averages (e.g., S&P 500 at 200-day MA), with downside triggers still in play—suggesting markets remain vulnerable to further declines despite intermittent rebounds. The global markets have once again seen a “wild swing of the pendulum” in the past eight hours, driven by conflicting news narratives related to the ongoing US-Iran war, which has lasted 25 days as of Tuesday, March 24, 2026.Tuesday’s session marked a mild reversal from Monday’s sudden burst of risk-on behaviour triggered by US President Trump’s claim that the US and Iran are back on the negotiation table, and a deal is imminent to end the conflict. Iranian officials refuted such claims, which led to a sell-off in global equities, a rebound in the US dollar, and a decline in benchmark oil prices, accompanied by an intraday softening of gold and silver.By the end of Tuesday’s US session, three major benchmark US stock indices ended with losses; S&P 500 (-0.37%), Nasdaq 100 (-0.77%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.18%), with a slight risk-off backdrop backed by an increased odds that the US White House is sending military ground forces to Iran to odd US-Israel joint offensive as media reports stated that US administration has ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy around 2,000 soldiers to the Middle East.At around 4.15 am Singapore time, Wednesday, 25 March (right after the close of Tuesday’s US session), US President Trump gave a press conference that signalled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations he has claimed are ongoing, hinting at a possible ceasefire to happen “very soon”.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 e-min futures rose sharply at the start of Wednesday, 25 March Asian session, with an intraday gain of 1% before it dwindled to 0.7% at this time of writing.However, Polymarket’s prediction market platform is not reflecting an imminent US-Iran ceasefire, and several key cross assets’ price action behaviour is not displaying clear signals of an all-out risk-on herd sentiment at this juncture.Unfolding them as follows…Low odds of a ceasefire by 31 March Fig. 1: Polymarket’s US-Iran ceasefire timing odds as of 25 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Data sourced from Polymarket compiled by fundamental data provider, MacroMicro, has indicated that the prediction market-implied probability for a US-Iran ceasefire by 31 March 2026 has only increased slightly to 17.5% on Wednesday, 25 March at this time of writing from its prior day of 12.5% (see Fig. 1).A higher probability of a ceasefire at 62.5% is being priced in at a longer period, by 31 May 2026 (a jump from 56.5% printed on Tuesday, 24 March).S&P 500 bulls get rejected again at the 200-day moving average Fig. 2: US SPX 500 CFD minor trend as of 25 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The current price actions of the US SPX 500 CFD index (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures) have its intraday rally cut short again at its 200-day moving average, now coinciding with the 6,648 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).A breakdown with an hourly close below 6,540 near-term support (downside trigger) may open up scope for the bears to retest Monday’s 23 March 2026 swing low area at 6,470/442 in the first step.The US Dollar Index remains supported by its 20-day moving average Fig. 3: US Dollar Index medium-term trend as of 25 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The recent 1.6% decline seen in the US Dollar Index from its 100.10/100.54 medium-term range support has managed and continued to find support at the 99.00 level, which confluences with the 20-day moving average and the ascending trendline in place since the 27 January 2026 low of 95.55 (see Fig. 3).AUD/USD bulls capped below the 50-day moving average Fig. 4: AUD/USD minor trend as of 25 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The Australian dollar is considered a proxy of risk appetite, where a rally in the AUD/USD represents a risk-on behaviour.On Wednesday, 25 March, the Asian opening session intraday rally seen in the AUD/USD has been wiped out after a bearish reaction right at the 50-day moving average, with an intraday loss of 0.4% at this time of writing.Watch the 0.7027 key short-term pivotal resistance on the AUD/USD, and it has staged a bearish breakdown from a minor “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal configuration on Monday, 23 March 2026 (see Fig. 4).A break below 0.6910 key medium-term pivotal support exposes further potential weakness towards the next intermediate support at 0.6838 in the first step.WTI crude oil is still holding above the 20-day moving average Fig. 5: West Texas Oil CFD index minor trend as of 25 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Wednesday’s Asian opening session sell-off seen in the West Texas Oil CFD index (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) has managed to find support once again at the 20-day moving average, which also stalled Monday’s intraday plunge of 10% triggered by US President Trump’s claim of a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran.Watch the $88.36/85.50 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance with an hourly close above $93.70 may see a further push up to retest the minor range resistance of $102.25 (see Fig. 5).Conclusion An analysis of the current price structures of the related cross asset classes, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and West Texas crude oil, suggests that we are not out of the woods yet for a significant bullish reversal in risk appetite to take form.Perhaps the market is rebuking US President Trump’s claims of an imminent ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Australia's annual CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% in February 2026, yet it remains above the RBA's target range.The AUD/USD pair is technically "coiled" within a tight trading range of 0.6980 and 0.7070.Near-term price direction will be dictated by US Dollar strength and geopolitical developments.Key levels to watch are a sustained bearish candle close below 0.6980 or a bullish breakout above 0.7070.Most Read: The Metals space is as confused as traders are – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookAUD/USD continues to struggle below the psychological 0.7000 handle following softer than expected CPI data. Market participants still seem to be erring on the side of caution with more rate hikes still expected from the RBA moving forward.Soft CPI print fails to move the needle Australia’s annual inflation rate showed signs of cooling in February 2026, dipping to 3.7%. This result was slightly lower than the 3.8% market forecast and the figures seen in the previous two months, though it remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2–3% target range. Source: TradingEconomics A significant driver of this slowdown was the easing of goods inflation, which dropped to 3.5% from 3.8% in January. This was largely fueled by a sharp decline in transport costs, particularly automotive fuel, which fell by 7.2%, a much steeper drop than the 2.7% decline recorded before the recent Middle East conflict. Other sectors contributing to the downward trend included:Alcohol and tobacco: Eased to 4.3%Education: Slowed to 4.8%Clothing: Eased to 4.9%Communication: Dropped to 0.8%While several categories cooled, price growth remained persistent in other areas. Inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages held steady at 3.1%, and financial services remained at 2.4%. Conversely, costs accelerated for recreation (4.0%) and housing, with the latter jumping to 7.3% from 6.8%. Services inflation remained unchanged at 3.9%.On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat, a notable shift from the 0.4% increase seen in January. Additionally, the trimmed mean CPI, a key measure of underlying inflation edged down to 3.3%, coming in below both the previous figure and market expectations of 3.4%.These latest numbers arrive at a time when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already pushed interest rates up to 4.10% to fight stubborn inflation.The RBA is worried that current price hikes might lead to "second-round effects," such as a cycle where wages and prices keep pushing each other higher. Because inflation isn't dropping as fast as hoped, many experts now expect the bank to raise interest rates again in the near future.This in part explains the lack of conviction by AUD/USD bears with the pair failing to find any sustainable downside push since breaching the 0.7000 handle.The path forward for AUD/USD Given the lack of high impact Australian data in the coming days, the US dollar and geopolitical developments will be the driving force behind any immediate moves.The US Dollar has been supported by risk off sentiment since the start of the US-Iran war. News that diplomatic efforts are underway has boosted sentiment with rumors of talks between the two countries as early as Thursday.If sentiment continues to improve and hopes of a ceasefire grows, the US Dollar could continue to lose steam and this in turn could send AUD/USD back above the 0.7000 level. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - AUD/USD Based on the four-hour (4H) AUD/USD chart, the pair is currently caught between fundamental inflation concerns and a clear technical squeeze.Current Price Action: The "Squeeze"The chart shows AUD/USD trading within a descending triangle or a narrowing wedge pattern. After a sharp rejection from the 0.7130 area mid-month, the pair has been making lower highs, constrained by a descending trendline.Key Resistance Zone: There is a heavy "death cross" forming with the 50-period SMA (0.7038), 100-period SMA (0.7052), and 200-period SMA (0.7063) all hovering just above the current price. This creates a dense ceiling of resistance between 0.7040 and 0.7070.Psychological Support: The price is currently dancing around the 0.70000 psychological level. While it dipped toward 0.6940 recently, it has clawed back to the parity line, suggesting some dip-buying is occurring.RSI Neutrality: The RSI is sitting at approximately 45.50, which is neutral. It isn't oversold yet, meaning there is room for a move in either direction once the pattern breaks.AUD/USD Four-Hour Chart, March 25, 2026 Source:TradingView.com The Bearish Case (Breakdown)If the RBA's 4.10% rate and the persistent 3.7% inflation data cause markets to fear a "hard landing" (economic slowdown), we could see a break below the recent support.Trigger: A sustained candle close below 0.6980.Targets: The first major target would be the recent swing low near 0.6940, followed by the long-term horizontal support at 0.6913.2. The Bullish Case (Breakout)If the market interprets the slight dip in inflation (3.7% vs 3.8%) as a sign that the RBA's hikes are finally working or if the RBA signals an aggressive hike to 4.35%, the Aussie could catch a bid.Trigger: A break and hold above the descending trendline and the cluster of SMAs (specifically above 0.7070).Targets: A successful breakout would likely see a quick move toward 0.7080, with a medium-term goal of retesting the March high at 0.7130.Bottom Line: AUD/USD is coiled tightly. Until it breaks out of the 0.6980 – 0.7070 range, expect "choppy" sideways movement as the market digests the latest inflation data.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.