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Market recap for the North American session - June 19
Log in to today’s North American session Recap for June 19Today's session was once again filled with headlines about the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and despite US markets were closed, US Oil broke its week-old highs shortly before retracting – The energy commodity is still up close to 1%.Today's flows have been particular with subdued volume in the North-American session, as sentiment continued to degrade.The White House stated in their ongoing Press Briefing that President Trump would take a decision about the US Involvement in the conflict within the next two weeks.European markets saw 2 Rate Decisions:The first for the Swiss National Bank, who cut their main Rate to 0% announcing the potential return to negative rates.The second with the Bank of England that held their main rates around 4.25% despite a few negative data points. BoE speakers mentioned an inflation that is still too high and that they still have some margin.The more pessimistic sentiment dragged on Stock Indices around the globe and US Futures (Futures market closed at 1:30 PM) were not left out with most indices closing down about 1%.
Read More: Gold rejects newer highs again despite headlines - tides turning for the precious metal?
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Natural Gas and Wheat are the two top performers in other commodities – For a reminder, Russia announced droughts in a region which produces a lot of supply.For cryptocurrencies, most are down on the day however the action still seems mostly rangebound looking at the bigger picture, with volatility relatively muted.
Daily Cross-Asset performance
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Cross-Asset Daily Performance, June 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Cross-Asset Daily Performance, June 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
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Currency Performance, June 19 – Source: OANDA Labs
Currency Performance, June 19 – Source: OANDA Labs
Most of the action in Forex today was a slight reversal from yesterday's moves, with Pacific currencies lagging the most and European currencies leading overall.The DXY kept going higher before retracting as the few US traders took their afternoon. The Dollar Index is still trading in the 99.00 Psychological Zone (+/- 15 pips) but closing below the key level.
A look at Economic Data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's session
Tonight will see the release of Japan's inflation data (19:30) and the BoJ Minutes, shortly followed by the Chinese PBoC Rate Decision at 21:15.Tomorrow's session isn't expected to be heavy in Economic Releases, with UK (2:00 A.M) and Canadian (8:30 A.M) Retail Sales data – Respectively expected at -0.7% and 0.5%.Watch for any week-end risk flows towards the afternoon and as always, stay in touch with the latest news to avoid being on the wrong side of volatile flows.Safe Trades!
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Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Fed and BoE hold rates, SNB cuts to zero,oil prices soar
Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets.
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Asia mid-session: Fed flags stagflation risk, US dollar rebounds, risk-off in equities
The US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark Fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, as widely expected. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that recently announced tariffs could exert upward pressure on prices.
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Latest Fed’s “dot-plot” implies stagflation risks
Stagflation risks emerged from the latest “dot plot” of economic projections released on 18 June, with Fed officials lowering GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 while raising inflation expectations for 2025 through 2027, compared to March estimates.Although the Fed maintained its median projection of two rate cuts in 2025—aligned with current market pricing via the CME FedWatch tool—it signalled fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027 than previously anticipated, reinforcing a more hawkish policy stance.
US dollar strength resurfaced & equities sold off, triggered by the Fed’s hawkish hold
The US dollar responded positively to this “hawkish hold,” with the US Dollar Index gaining 0.1% in today’s Asian session. It is now testing its 20-day moving average resistance around the 99.00 level.Equity markets in Asia sold off sharply, mirroring weakness in US stock index futures, amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Bloomberg reported that US officials are preparing for a potential military strike on Iran, adding to the geopolitical risk premium.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged 2%—its steepest single-day loss since 7 April, following the announcement of new US “Liberation Day” tariffs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.8% as it struggled to break above the key resistance zone at 38,850, in place since 13 May.
Gold sandwiched & bullish momentum remains intact in WTI
Gold (XAU/USD) remains caught between conflicting forces. While a firm US dollar is capping upside near US$3,400, escalating geopolitical tensions are supporting prices around the 20-day moving average, now acting as key intermediate support near US$3,350.Meanwhile, WTI crude oil maintained short-term bullish momentum, rising 0.6% to US$74.95/barrel during today’s Asian session. The move brought prices close to the recent swing high of US$75.18, recorded on 13 June amid Israel’s initial airstrikes on Iran.
Economic data releases
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Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)
Fig 1: Key data for today’s Asia mid-session (Source: MarketPulse)
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Chart of the day – EUR/USD minor corrective decline continues to extend
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Fig 2: EUR/USD minor to medium-term trends as of 19 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Fig 2: EUR/USD minor to medium-term trends as of 19 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)
The minor corrective decline seen in the EUR/USD since last Thursday, 12 June high of 1.1632 has continued to extend further to the downside as it has broken below the 1.1480 near-term support (18 June minor swing low and former 5 June minor swing high) ex-post FOMC meeting.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to exhibit bearish momentum conditions and has not reached its oversold region (below 30).The observations suggest that the EUR/USD may continue to extend its current one-week-long minor corrective decline phase within a medium-term uptrend phase that is still firmly intact.Watch the 1.1530 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the intraday bearish trend bias to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.1410 (also the 20-day moving average), and 1.1360 (also the 50-day moving average and the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel) (see Fig 2).On the flip side, a clearance above 1.1530 invalidates the bearish tone and shifts the focus back to the bulls for a recovery to retest 1.1610 before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 1.1660/1690.
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Market recap for the North American session - June 18
Log in to today’s North American session Recap for June 18Today's session was filled with headlines surrounding the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, but markets have shown limited reaction—at least for now.One potential trigger for broader risk-off sentiment remains the possibility of direct U.S. involvement, which appears increasingly likely.President Trump, true to form, has remained characteristically vague on the matter.On the sidenote, markets have been cut short from their volatility despite a well-anticipated FED Meeting and the release of the Summary of Economic Projections.Only cryptocurrencies have corrected amid some continuation of profit-taking.Oil prices have been volatile, trading within a $73–$75 range and experiencing a sharp pullback after briefly touching new weekly highs at $75.70.Equity indices are sending mixed signals. Major U.S. indices ended the day flat, with the exception of the Russell 2000, which closed up 0.55%.In contrast, European markets mirrored that move in reverse, finishing down by roughly the same margin. Japan’s Nikkei stood out with a 1.08% rally.
Read More: US Dollar finds a bottom as Fed Funds stay unchanged
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Gold seems to have found a local top, now logging its second consecutive daily decline. An update will be coming up to breach the gap between the anxious markets and a lackluster performance from Safe-Haven assets.Other industrial metals are showing mixed performances with Copper up 1% and SIlver down about a similar amount.One standout performer on the commodities front was Wheat, which surged over 4.2% after Russia declared a drought emergency, triggering fresh supply concerns.
Daily Cross-Asset performance
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Cross-Asset Daily Performance, June 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Cross-Asset Daily Performance, June 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
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Currency Performance, June 18 – Source: OANDA Labs
Currency Performance, June 18 – Source: OANDA Labs
APAC Currencies are the clear leaders of the day, in what is starting to be a trend of strong performance for both the AUD and NZD.The distance from the Middle-Eastern conflict and US-China trade tensions abating in the past few weeks are fundamental contributors to this outperformance, supplemented by lesser cut expected particularly by the RBNZ.CHF was the worst performer of the day as markets are selling off their safe-havens with Equity markets coming back. The risk premium is one that the market is ready to pay these days.
A look at the Economic Calendar for tomorrow's session
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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar
Tomorrow's session will be another session full of economic data releases, spread throughout the entire session.Starting in the overnight session, we will see the release of Employment Change statistics from Australia (expected at 25K), releasing at 21:30 E.T. tonight.ECB's President Lagarde will be speaking at 3:30 A.M. in Kiev, Ukraine. She should not speak much about Monetary Policy but some decent info could be taken from her speech.The Bank of England Rate Decision is expected at 7:00 tomorrow with no cuts priced in the market – The BoE has surprised before, therefore always take precautions.Finally, tomorrow evening will see the release of Japan's inflation data (19:30) and the BoJ Minutes, shortly followed by the Chinese PBoC Rate Decision at 21:15Safe Trades!
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US Dollar finds a bottom as Fed Funds stay unchanged - NA markets mid-week update
The weekly opened had seen the US Dollar retreat but one ongoing theme is of an overdone USD selling – With war headlines coming out by the minute, the Dollar Index has failed to break new lows and is making its way to the 99.00 pivot zone.Jerome Powell is currently speaking at the FOMC Rate Decision Press Conference.This nice chart offered by Bank of America in their latest Global Funds Manager Survey shows how positioning is changing – Reminder that it's more an opinion from the Funds Managers than numbers, as global exposure to USD assets is still massive.
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Source: Bank of America Global Funds Manager Survey
Source: Bank of America Global Funds Manager Survey
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North American Equity Indices Snapshot
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North-American Indices performance since last Monday, June 18, 2025
North-American Indices performance since last Monday, June 18, 2025
North American Indices have held strong and are up since last Monday with the Nasdaq leading, closely followed by the S&P 500.Anxious market sentiment don't always transfer to negative Indices performance.One potential headwind is a potential entry from the US in the Iran-Israel conflict that seems to be closer from materializing.
US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors
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USD vs other Majors, June 18, 2025 - Source: TradingView.
USD vs other Majors, June 18, 2025 - Source: TradingView.
The Greenback has held strongly against the GBP and risk-off currencies lagging the most on the week – Another proof of market anxiety not materializing in proper demand for Safe-Haven Assets.The Dollar has however lagged against the Aussie and the Kiwi for a third straight week as prospects for US-China trade deals enhances the outlook for both exporting nations.
Dollar Index 4H Chart
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Dollar Index 4H Chart, June 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Dollar Index 4H Chart, June 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView
The DXY is currently close to the 99.00 psychological level as Powell is speaking, and fully corrected from the FOMC Rate Decision downward move.
Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors
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CAD vs other Majors, June 18, 2025 - Source: TradingView
CAD vs other Majors, June 18, 2025 - Source: TradingView
The Loonie has held a decent performance throughout the beginning of the week, only lagging against the Australian Dollar and the USD which is getting backed from the geopolitical developments.Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem spoke this morning about a better outlook on the US Trade conflicts and how important it is to the economy – this hasn't moved the CAD too much.
Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD
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USDCAD 4H Chart, June 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView
USDCAD 4H Chart, June 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView
USDCAD is breaking out of the descending channel formed throughout the latter part of May which brought the currency to fresh lows for the year.Prices are supported by the 4H 50-period moving average and the move up looks like it has the potential to retest the 1.38 Resistance Zone that coincides with the 4H MA 200 (currently standing at 1.3789).In the meantime, buyers are eyeing the 1.3740 Immediate Resistance zone.Seller would be looking to re-enter the channel, a move that can only be done by re-crossing the MA 50 standing at 1.3650.
US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week
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North American upcoming Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar
North American upcoming Data releases – MarketPulse Economic Calendar
The rest of the week will focus mostly on Canadian data, with the highest-tier data being the Canadian Retail Sales, coming up on Friday with +0.5% m/m expected.Safe Trades!
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Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Gold (XAU/USD) Market Outlook: Central Bank Demand and Price Correction, $3350/oz Incoming?
Gold prices continue to struggle this week with the precious metal unable to hold convincingly above the $3400/oz handle.This is no doubt a surprise given the tensions in the Middle East as well as data from the World Gold Council monthly report which showed Central Bank buying remains elevated.Sentiment has been swaying back and forth with Gold taking its cues from comments around the Israel-Iran situation. The fact that Gold has failed to make fresh highs as a result of rising Geopolitical risk does not bode particularly well for the precious metal.Another sign that the bullish rally may have been waning even before the Israel-Iran conflict came in May, where buyers couldn’t drive gold prices higher than the previous month’s top. This was the first time this happened since November.
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Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025
The World Gold Council released the 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves (CBGR) survey, held from February 25 to May 20, which highlighted the ongoing importance of managing gold reserves during tough times. This year, the survey hit a new record with 73 responses, the most since the survey began eight years ago.The report painted a pretty picture for Gold demand, most respondents (95%) think central banks around the world will add more gold to their reserves in the next year.This year, a record 43% of respondents believe that their own gold reserves will also increase over the same period. Interestingly, none of our respondents anticipate a decline in their gold reserves.This should not come as a surprise as global uncertainty and nationalism continue to rise around the globe, Gold was certain to return to its rightful place as the ultimate safe haven.Other key takeaways from the survey:The majority of respondents (73%) see moderate or significantly lower US dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years. Respondents also believe that the share of other currencies, such as the euro and renminbi, as well as gold, will increase over the same period.The survey highlighted an uptick in respondents who actively manage their gold reserves, from 37% in 2024 to 44% in 2025. While enhancing returns remained the primary reason for this, risk management leapfrogged tactical trading as the second most selected reason.The Bank of England remains the most popular vaulting location for gold reserves amongst respondents (64%).Central banks have accumulated over 1,000t of gold in each of the last three years, up significantly from the 400-500t average over the preceding decade.A prime example would be the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) which reported buying gold for seven straight months, adding 1.9 tons to its reserves in May. China's official gold holdings are now at 2,296 tons, making up 6.7% of its total foreign exchange reserves.
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Source: World Gold Council
Source: World Gold Council
All of this bodes well for the longer term picture where Gold is concerned.However, in the short-term the possibility of a deeper correction continues to grow. The longer the $3500/oz handle holds firm the more likely Gold is to revisit the $3000/oz handle and possibly previous all-time highs around $2800/oz.The parabolic move higher this year and the back end of last year has not faced a meaningful pullback. Is the time nearing for a significant pullback in Gold prices?
The Week Ahead
The rest of the week will remain busy as the Middle East continues to be a source of focus. The situation is fluid and rapidly evolving, thus volatility could arrive at any moment.From a data standpoint, tomorrow brings the FOMC meeting as well as updated Fed projections which could provide us valuable insights into monetary policy moving forward.Following the retail sales data today, US short-term interest rate futures trimmed earlier gains with traders sticking to a September rate cut view. Any change in this regard from tomorrow's FOMC meeting could have a big impact on Gold prices.
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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
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Technical Analysis - Gold
From a technical standpoint, Gold is struggling to hold above the 3400 handle.The precious metal has been on a steady decline since the Sunday evening high around 3450.The period 14 RSI has also crossed below the 50 neutral level hinting at a potential shift in momentum.Just looking at price action and i drew in the Fib retracement tool with the golden pocket (61.8-78.6) region beginning around the 3353 mark. This would be the preferred area for a potential long position for would be bulls and could provide an excellent risk to reward opportunity.Now a H4 candle close below the 3322 handle would invalidate the current bullish setup and could see gold fall below the 3300 handle.However, bear in mind the FOMC meeting and Israel-Iran conflict which seems to be entering a crucial phase right about now.Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, June 17, 2025
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Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
Support337233533322Resistance340034133450Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Retail Sales miss, US Indices Slip from Highs as Risk Sentiment Weakens Ahead of Open
Global indices have opened the week with a resilient performance, recovering most of last week's late-session tumble.Over the past few years, several risk-off events have briefly triggered market panic, only for prices to swiftly return to their prior trends and sentiment to rebound rapidly, with panic often contained to one or two sessions.Yesterday's session suggested a similar pattern, but today's pre-open sentiment appears somewhat unsettled. Global equity indices have traded in the red mostly on the session, with Euro Stoxx and the DAX down about -0.80%.The US Retail Sales report just released with -0.9% vs -0.7% expected, a sour headline number though the previous months base is strong with US Consumers having front-ran their purchases to avoid tariffs.The Control Group stat was however stronger than expected, mitigating the miss (+0.4% vs +0.3%), one of the best indicators within the Data.With the biggest data of the day already out, traders may still expect an agitated session
Read More: Middle East Tensions Dominate, BOJ Rate Hold and DAX Clings to Support
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As the G7 meeting is underway in Kananaskis, Alberta, where world leaders are discussing the current state of affairs, significant new updates specifically on the Israel-Iran conflict from the summit have been sparse.Notably, President Trump has reportedly departed the meeting early to return to Washington, presumably to address the escalating developments in the Middle East.In the energy sector, Oil prices are consolidating, trading approximately $3 to $5 below their recent highs in the $71-$73 range, while still gaining over 2.30% on the session. Markets will likely interpret rising oil prices as directly correlated to increasing anxiety surrounding the conflict; it is, therefore, crucial to closely monitor these correlations.Let's take a look at short timeframe charts ahead of US Equity Markets open.
Intra-Day Charts for Nasdaq, S&P and the Dow
Both the Nasdaq and S&P have yesterday recovered to their Thursday pre-sell off highs though it seems that buyers have taken their feet off the pedal, as we approach tomorrow's FOMC meeting and more war headlines are expected.The Dow has been struggling more than its peers to hold the positive sentiment. My hunch tells me this is the one to look for pursued anxiety and Nasdaq for a return of positive sentiment.Watch for any particular divergence between the indices and if one starts to lead the others in a fall or another meteoric rise.
Nasdaq 100 15m Chart
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Nasdaq 15m Chart, 17 June, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Nasdaq 15m Chart, 17 June, 2025 – Source: TradingView
S&P 500 15m Chart
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S&P 500 15m Chart, 17 June, 2025 – Source: TradingView
S&P 500 15m Chart, 17 June, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Dow Jones 15m Chart
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Dow Jones 15m Chart, 17 June, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Dow Jones 15m Chart, 17 June, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Safe Trades!
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
BoJ hold interest rates at 0.5%, US retail sales sink, yen steady
The Japanese yen is slightly higher on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading quietly at 144.58, down 0.08% on the day. The Bank of Japan held interest rates, while US retails sales were lower than expected at -0.9%.
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BoJ holds rates for third straight timeThere were no surprises from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, as the central bank maintained its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. This leaves the rate at its highest level since 2008.The BoJ started the year on a hawkish note, hiking rates by 0.25%. However, any hopes for a series of rate increases were dashed as US President Trump unleashed his wide-ranging tariffs which led to significant turmoil in the financial markets. Central banks responded with extreme caution to the geopolitical risks and the BoJ has remained on the sidelines.Today's decision was unanimous, which underlines the cautious stance that BoJ policymakers are taking. Last week, Governor Ueda said that if the BoJ is convinced that underlying inflation will approach the 2% level, the BOJ will continue to raise rates.At today's press conference, Ueda said that inflation expectations aren't yet at the 2% level and voiced concern about tariffs affecting future wages. This dovish message reads "caution, caution, caution" and could mean that the Bank won't raise rates before 2026.BoJ says will slow pace of reduction in JGB purchasesAlthough the BoJ didn't raise rates at today's meeting, it confirmed plans to reduce Japanese government bond purchases by JPY 400 billion each quarter through Q2 2026. However, the Bank said it would cut in half the pace of reduction after that, to JPY 200 billion every quarter through Q2 2027. This indicates a slower move away from ultra-loose monetary policy, reflecting a more gradual approach in response to the uncertain economic environment.USD/JPY TechnicalUSD/JPY tested support at 144.53 earlier. Below, there is support at 144.16There is resistance at 144.78 and 145.16
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USDJPY 4-Hour Chart, June 17, 2025
USDJPY 4-Hour Chart, June 17, 2025
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Markets Today: Middle East Tensions Dominate, BoJ Rate Hold and DAX Clings to Support
Market participants remain in limbo as tensions in the Middle East show no signs of slowing down. US President Trump urged Iranians to leave Tehran, claiming their government had refused a deal to limit nuclear weapons development.This comes after G7 countries yesterday called for easing the worst conflict between the regional rivals, stating that Iran causes instability and must never have nuclear weapons, while supporting Israel's right to self-defense.This is sure to leave market participants in a state of confusion but judging by yesterday's price action, markets have remained resilient thus far.
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Asian Market Wrap
Asian stocks saw a slight rise, with gains in Japan and Taiwan, while markets in Hong Kong and China declined. Semiconductor stocks performed well as interest in artificial intelligence investments grew. On Wall Street, risk-taking returned, pushing the S&P 500 up about 1%, climbing back above 6,000.Investors showed mixed confidence in the US economy. Longer-term Treasury bonds underperformed, even after a $13 billion sale of 20-year bonds met expected yields—an improvement from last month’s disappointing auction that triggered a market selloff. The dollar showed mixed performance against major currencies.For more on the Asian session, read Asia mid-session: Oil extends gains, Asian equities recovered, and Gold retreated
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Adjusts Bond Tapering, Keeps Rates on Hold
As expected, the BOJ kept short-term interest rates at 0.5% after a two-day meeting. It also stuck to its current bond tapering plan, which reduces government bond purchases by 400 billion yen ($2.76 billion) per quarter, aiming to lower monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen by March 2026.However, the BOJ announced a slower pace of reduction starting in fiscal 2026. From then, it will cut bond purchases by half the current rate, reducing monthly purchases to 2 trillion yen by March 2027. This adjustment matches requests from market participants during recent meetings.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said at a press briefing, "There is still a lot of uncertainty about trade policies in different countries, which increases risks for Japan's economy and prices."Markets will be watching how Governor Ueda handles U.S. tariff risks and inflation in Japan to predict when the BOJ might raise interest rates again.
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Source: LSEG
Source: LSEG
European Open
European stocks opened lower on Tuesday, with the STOXX 600 index dropping 0.8% to 542.38 points. This followed a small recovery on Monday after five days of losses.Energy stocks performed the best, rising 0.3%, while all other sectors fell. Telecom companies saw the biggest drop, down 1.4%.In individual stocks, London's Ashtead was one of the top gainers, even though it predicted slower growth in rental revenue.On the FX front, the US Dollar Index was little changed on Tuesday morning trading around the 98.16 handle and flat for the day. The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to risk, rose 0.13% to 0.6533 after an earlier drop. The New Zealand dollar also gained 0.1%, trading at 0.6065.Currency Power Balance
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Source: OANDA Labs
Source: OANDA Labs
On the commodities front, Gold prices peaked above the $3400/oz handle overnight before retreating to trade at $3384/oz at the time of writing. Gold has failed to build on last week's rally despite the increasing tension in the Middle East. Quite a surprise given the initial reaction on Friday.Oil jumped on President Trump's comments regarding Tehran residents and remains around 1.8% up on the day. Oil, like gold, took markets by surprise yesterday finishing the day down 2.6% but tensions in the Middle East should in theory keep oil prices elevated in the interim.
Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts
Looking at the economic calendar, we have ZEW sentiment out in a bit which will be followed by US retail sales in the US session.There are also a few speeches by ECB policymakers Villeroy and Centeno later in the day.Tomorrow and Thursday bring a lot more high impact data with both the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings.For now, eyes will be focused on the Middle East. President Trump cut short his trip to the G7 meeting due to the situation in the Middle East. The president has requested that the national security council be prepared in the situation room.This coupled with President Trump's morning comments warning residents to leave Tehran, have sparked concerns that the US may ‘officially’ get involved in the conflict which Tehran has warned would spark a wider conflict.
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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
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Chart of the Day - DAX Index
From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has failed to build on yesterdays gains as it retests support around 23300.The Index like markets in general is taking its cues largely from the fluid situation in the Middle East which is keeping risk appetite in check for now.It did appear that markets were going to shrug off the Middle East tensions, but developments over the last 24 hours have likely changed the narrative.The DAX remains bullish without a daily candle close below the support area which ends around the 23200 handle.A candle close below this handle could open up further downside potential with the 50 and 100-day MAs likely coming into play at 22994 and 22716 respectively.If a move higher materializes resistance may be found at 23600 before the 23754 and 24000 handles come into focus.DAX Daily Chart, June 17. 2025
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Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Gold retreats in positive mood – Understanding the Market
The overnight session movements were a surprise to many participants as some fresh money entered markets, ahead of the upcoming Central Bank rate decisions and amid historical conflicts between Israel and Iran.The two nations in the Middle-East had been fighting their own proxy wars since October 7 2023 but really started clashing directly last Thursday. For a reminder, Israel attacked Iran's Nuclear plants and engineers as they were only a few days away from creating an Atomic Bomb.Markets have reacted the same way as in last August 2024 where a swift risk-off move had been followed by a major recovery in stock indices – These are the factors allowing markets to rally:
The war does not create major regional spilloversIran barks a lot but never does much damageThe US and other G7 Nations never really get dragged inIndex Futures opened the Asia-Morning session on a positive note, and Oil rallied a bit before giving back its gains. The overall sentiment has changed, and markets adapted even quicker from the risk-off tone than in August 2024.
Read More: Resilient Start to the Busy Week
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Israel has successfully attacked key Iranian military positions, and Iran’s response has been limited – their Defense and Offense capacities got targeted heavily. Despite more than 700 ballistic missiles shot and a few unfortunate civilian casualties, damage has been controlled.Indices all around the globe are up around 0.70% and above, and commodities that got their quotes shaken by war and supply fears have eased.Markets lose money in risk-off trading, and in the past few years, the moment big players feel the event won’t be dragging its influence for too long, flows quickly turn to risk-on.Let's take a look at Gold charts as the precious metal retracts from its highs.
Gold Technical Analysis from Daily to Hourly charts
Gold Daily chart
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Gold Daily Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Gold Daily Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Gold prices are forming a Twizzer top candlestick pattern on the day and failed to reach the 3,470 to 3,500 Main resistance zone.The upbeat mood stalled the rally for the precious metal and points towards consolidation as key Moving averages are still lagging on the move.The Daily MA 20 is for example about $60 below at 3,339.More details of where to look in intra-day charts below.
Gold 4H chart
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Gold 4H Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Gold 4H Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Prices are currently trading around the 3,400 Pivot Zone as the RSI is coming back to neutral, allowing for consolidation towards further movements.The 4H MA 20 is becoming support and holding a further descent. Any rebound from here would be a technical break-retest although market sentiment would to worsen from here to support gold prices further.Levels to watch:
3,450 Intermediate Resistance and Friday session highs3,420 Immediate Resistance3,400 Pivot Zone and 4H MA 20 confluence3,380 Support 13,365 4H MA 50
Gold 1H chart
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Gold 1H Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Gold 1H Chart, June 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Gold prices rejected a failed break above $3,450 and have since retracted around $60.The RSI is close to oversold as the selloff accelerated in the past hourly candle, pushed by the MA 20 and 50 turning into resistances.The selloff is currently stalling at the 3,375 to 3,390 Immediate support in the waiting of further headlines, and it seems like markets will be now turning to the pricing in of Wednesday's FOMC Meeting.Stay in touch with the latest war developments and any further change in market sentiment.Safe Trades!
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Markets Today: Resilient Start to Busy Week, Kering Stock Jumps 8%, DAX Bounces off Support
Market participants were eyeing a frantic start to the week following a weekend of back and forth drone and missile strikes between Iran and Israel threatened to spillover into a regional conflict. This coupled with ongoing chatter that Iranian officials were considering closing the straight of Hormuz further added to the anxiety.However, markets have started the week in a resilient manner with the Asian session brushing off the geopolitical risk for now.
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Asian Market Wrap
Asian shares held steady on Monday, while oil prices climbed again as tensions between Israel and Iran continued to escalate. The ongoing conflict has added more uncertainty to the global economy during a week filled with central bank meetings.For now, investors are watching for updates, and MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.3%. Japan's Nikkei gained 1.2%, and South Korea's stocks went up 1.3%.In China, top stocks increased by 0.1% after data showed retail sales grew 6.4% in May, beating expectations, while industrial output matched forecasts.For more information on the Asian session as well as positive Chinese data which did aid mainland Chinese stocks, read Asia mid-session: Oil extends gains, Asian equities recovered, and Gold retreated
European Open
Europe's markets opened Monday without a strong reaction to the renewed attacks between Israel and Iran over the weekend.The STOXX 600 rose 0.2%, recovering slightly after Friday's sharp losses, as investors seemed to believe the conflict would stay contained.Financial, travel, and energy stocks gained, balancing out weaker performance in defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities, as oil prices and bond yields increased.In corporate news, reports that Italian executive Luca de Meo might become the new CEO of Gucci-owner Kering made waves. Kering's shares jumped 8.3% on the news, while Renault, where de Meo has been CEO for five years, saw its shares drop over 6%.On the Commodities front, Gold has fallen around $40 from an overnight high around the $3450/oz mark. The move could be down to some potential profit taking as market participants prep for a busy week ahead that includes a host of Central Bank meetings.Oil prices are down around 1.35% this morning as concerns around a potential closure of the strait of Hormuz have for now been sidelined. As much as this was a topic over the weekend that garnered a lot of attention, the idea would harm Iran just as much as anyone else. Such a move may materialize should Iran feel like it is running out of options in its current spat with Israel and this could have a huge impact on oil prices.On the FX front, The dollar stayed steady in a volatile trading session on Monday. It held at 144.29 Japanese yen after gaining nearly 0.4% earlier. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.1583.The dollar remained unchanged against the Swiss franc at 0.812, while a key index tracking the dollar against six major currencies slipped 0.3% to 97.97. Risk-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars saw small gains, while Norway's krone, boosted by oil prices, rose 0.3% to its highest level since early 2023.Currency Power Balance
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Source: OANDA Labs
Source: OANDA Labs
Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts
Looking at the economic calendar, today is a quiet day in terms of European and US data ahead of what is a busy week.Four Central Bank meetings are key this week while we also have other data releases such as US and UK retail sales and GDP data from New Zealand.Given the ongoing Geopolitical situation there is a chance despite it being a data heavy week, markets may still be driven by overall risk sentiment. This will largely depend on developments around the Israel-Iran situation and whether or not we see further escalation.
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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
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Chart of the day - DAX
From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has bounced off a key support area to start the week.An overall improvement in sentiment has played a large part in the rise and needs to be closely watched moving forward.Last weeks selloff did provide market participants with a better chance to enter at an improved price.A continuation of the recovery may face challenges at 23629 before the 24000 handle comes into focus.However, should we see sentiment worsen then there is every possibility of further losses.Immediate support rests at 23189 before the 50-day MA at 22960 comes into focus.DAX Daily Chart, June 16. 2025
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Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Markets weekly outlook - FOMC, BoJ and BoE Rate Decision, risk-off flows?
Week in review: Sentiment jumps around between positive CPI & PPI reports and major geopolitical turmoil
The week began quietly across most asset classes, except for cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin surged to the $110,000 level before pulling back. Forex markets remained subdued as participants awaited key US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.One recurring theme was the underwhelming progress in US-China talks, which yielded few concrete outcomes beyond commitments to continue discussions.We got two consecutive Inflation reports that were welcomed news for markets with the Core PPI coming in at 3.0% vs 3.1% exp. and Core CPI coming in at 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected. [Linked: Full data breakdowns]Turning to less-publicized data, the third consecutive Weekly Jobless Claims report came in above expectations, a developing trend that warrants further attention. This softer labor data contributed to some safe-haven demand, evidenced by a strong 30-year US Bond auction—a rare sight throughout the past year.
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However, the week's most significant risk-off event unfolded yesterday evening with reports of Israel's strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Initial reports indicate targets included key figures involved in the Iranian nuclear program and significant damage to defense capabilities.As this article is being written, headlines continue to emerge, suggesting this could evolve into a major story for the weeks to come. While a similar incident in August 2024 ultimately failed to result in significant further escalation, the current situation commands close attention.Nonetheless, crude oil prices surged from $64 to overnight highs of $76, and are currently trading above the $73 mark.A more detailed analysis on this will be provided in the "Chart of the Week" section further in the Weekly Outlook.
The Week ahead: Central banks rate decisions for the US, Japan and the UK & Retail Sales Data reports
The upcoming week is promised to be interesting for markets all around the globe, from planned events to potential headlines.
Asia Pacific Markets - Japanese CPI and BoJ Rate Decision
This week will start with China Retail Sales, with many eyes still looking at the current state of activity for the World's biggest exporter.The data releases on Sunday at 10:00 P.M. E.T. and expected at 5% Y/Y.Even more market moving, we will see the release of the Bank of Japan central bank decision on Monday evening.The BoJ is a tough central bank to predict, with the main interest rate currently at 0.50%, it is still generally expected that they won't hike rates on this meeting, but it's still worth observing that the yields on the Japanese 2 Year Bond is trading at 0.733%, there is at least one hike priced in the 2 year forward market-determined rates.Bank of Japan meetings tend to be even more surprising with the date of the decision constantly changing. The outcome is typically released between 7:00 P.M. to 8:00 P.M. We will also get the PBoC rate decision on Thursday at 21:15, though it doesn't tend to move markets too much.APAC markets won't see the release of many other high-tier economic data releases except for the Australian Employment data release (Wednesday 21:30) and the Japanese CPI data with the Core expected at 3.6% Y/Y.
Economic Data from Europe, UK and the US – FOMC and BoE Rate Decision
The most significant economic events in Western markets this week will be central bank monetary policy decisions.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to conclude its meeting on Wednesday, June 18th, with the decision at 2:00 and press conference at 2:30 PM E.T.Interest rates are broadly anticipated to remain unchanged, but markets will be attentive to the speech from Jerome Powell particularly as it comes to communication about future meetings, with the consecutive misses in inflation data.Wednesday will also see the release of the UK CPI with a consensus at 3.4% Y/Y.Following this, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its decision on Thursday, June 19th, at 7:00 AM E.T. Expectations for the BoE are mixed, with some anticipating a 25-basis point rate cut.There's also the release of both the US and UK retail sales, with the year-over-year data and the Eurozone harmonized CPI data.
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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
Chart of the week: US Oil
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US Oil WTI Daily Chart, June 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView
US Oil WTI Daily Chart, June 13, 2025 – Source: TradingView
All types of levels had to be review for US Oil prices as a significant breakout occured after a month-long consolidation $12 lower.Oil is up around 14% on the week.Since the middle of May, prices had been trading between 60.5 and $64 – Prices broke out of that range last Friday as discussions with Iran already started to stall and this theme kept on going throughout the week.It was a double breakout as prices were also being held by the Daily descending channel, and we are now trading far from it.The biggest push though was yesterday evening with a 10.80% move up after the turmoil in the Middle-East.Prices had since retraced at the current pivot (between $72 to $73) and are currently going back up from that point.Keep an eye on that pivot zone as a move below would be pointing at a retracement, and staying above would look at testing the highs, which may happen particularly if tensions persist.
Current Main Support: $70 zoneDaily MA 200 $69 acting as supportFurther support at $68Main Resistance 1: $75 to 76Main Resistance 2: $80 to $80.75 (2025 highs)Have a good weekend, and Safe Trades for the week ahead!
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Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Nasdaq 100 technical: A potential minor top has emerged
The Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures have plummeted by -1.80% in today’s Asian session at this time of the writing, due to a resurgence of risk-off sentiment over Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets.Oil prices spiked by 10% over fears of energy supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. A firmer upward drift in the prices of WTI and Brent is likely to complicate the US Federal Reserve’s plan to cut interest rates.
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Tighter liquidity conditions may trigger a negative reaction in US stock indices
Based on the latest data from the CME Fed Watch tool, the Fed funds futures market is expecting the Fed to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points (a 98% probability) in the September FOMC meeting to 4.00%-4.25%, its first cut after being on hold since December 2024.Another “wait and hold” stance by the Fed due to higher oil prices is likely to create a liquidity tightening condition, in turn, triggering a potential negative feedback loop into US stocks, and the higher beta Nasdaq 100 may see a higher magnitude of declines over the S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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Fig 1: Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 13 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Fig 1: Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 13 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Preferred trend bias (1 to 3 days)
Bearish with key short-term pivotal resistance at 21,700/21,770 for the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures), and a break below the near-term support at 21,640 (also the 20-day moving average) exposes the next intermediate supports at 21,180/21,030, and 20,690 (close to the 200-day moving average).
Key elements
Today’s price action of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has just broken down below a minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” configuration in place since the 23 May 2025 low.The current intraday loss of -1.7% has wiped out all the gains seen so far this Monday, 9 June, which suggests a potential minor top has been made on 11 June.The daily RSI momentum indicator has traced out a bearish divergence condition and broken below a key parallel support that supports a likelihood of further weakness in the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index.
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Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)
On the flip side, a clearance above 21,770 key resistance invalidates the bearish scenario to reinstate the bulls for a retest on the next intermediate resistance at 22,050, and above it sees the all-time high area coming in at 22,200/22,250.
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Top gainers and losers: North American markets recap for June 12, 2025
Log in to today’s North American session Recap for June 12.Today's session was marked by the another positive surprise with a miss on the release of the Producer Price Index, reducing again stagflation fears – a report relatively similar to yesterday's CPI.Keep an eye on the weekly Jobless claims report (coming out every Thursdays at 8:30 A.M. E.T.) as we've seen three consecutive weeks of the data reported above expectations. An uptrend in these reports may just start to contribute to a growingly negative sentiment in markets.US indices are sending conflicting sounds as they shot down yesterday and in the overnight session despite broadly positive news, with most indices up between 0.18% to 0.33% for the S&P. Only the Russell 2000 finishes the session down -0.44%.The rally from today's session did not overlap yesterday's sell-the-news from post-CPI flows, a theme to keep an eye on for upcoming trading sessions.It seems that markets are starting to price in more tensions in the Middle East - Gold broke above $3,400 and the US Treasury 30 Year Bond Auction had some demand to it.
Read More: S&P attempts a comeback amid positive CPI and PPI reports
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Cryptocurrencies finish the day in the red after being mixed throughout the day, with most of the move happening in the last hour of the session. There hasn't been any particular headline sparking the fall, which would point further towards a switch of sentiment.You can take a look at different levels of interest for the Ethereum right here.Precious and industrial metals are continuing their run higher, with Platinum, a commodity that isn't traded too often, having a particularly strong performance since last week.
A picture of today's performance for major currencies
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Currency Performance, June 12 – Source: OANDA Labs
Currency Performance, June 12 – Source: OANDA Labs
The US Dollar extends its downtrend being the weakest of majors today, with the DXY breaching and closing the session below April 2025 lows at 97.92. The Dollar sold off particularly more after the consecutive misses on Inflation data. The Euro continues its stellar run higher blazing through the 1.15 psychological level and breaching the 1.16 during the session before retracting, still closing up 0.85% on the day.A few ECB Speakers are starting to be concerned about the rise, as a Euro that is too strong would impair exports and slow down further an already lackadaisical economic activity.The Swiss Franc is leading all majors though with the move towards safe-haven assets spreading to currencies - USDCHF is closing down 1.15% on the session.The JPY is the third on the board in that aspect, up 0.75%.
A look at the Economic Calendar for tomorrow's session
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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar
Tomorrow's session is not expected to be as filled with key data compared as the past two days – still expect volatility to rise with potential rebalancing flows going towards the week-end.Euro traders will be looking at the German CPI expected at 0.2% m/m and will definitely add fuel to the volatility-fire in the shared currency. The data is releasing at 2:00 A.M E.T.There will also be a few ECB Speakers during the day with Elderson and Escriva.We will also get more information for GBP traders with the UK inflation expectations releasing at 4:30 in the overnight session. UK Data has been disappointing recently - keep an eye on GBPUSD.For the NA Session, the biggest data will be the Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 A.M, expected at 53.5 – very low expectations overall.The survey also releases inflation expectations and which tend to be good information for forecasters and may have an impact on the USD and related products, particularly Bonds.Safe Trades!
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Ethereum consolidates at the highs of its May range – ETH forecast
The cryptocurrency picture is confusing to understand in the past week, with most altcoins rallying but the path is not a one way up.Bitcoin is unchanged and most altcoins are down in today's session.ETH for example broke above its 2,739 May highs establishing local highs at 2,879 on Wednesday before retracting. Prices are down 2.80% on the session but the descent looks more like a retracement than a full correction of the preceding up-moves.
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Ethereum's recently launched ETF's like ETHA or FETH have had some steady inflows, not showing many signs of weakness there.Let's take a look at different timeframes going from the Daily to the hourly to spot potential trends and hurdles.
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Table of Daily ETH ETF inflows, June 12 – Source: Glassnode
Table of Daily ETH ETF inflows, June 12 – Source: Glassnode
Ethereum Technical Analysis
ETH Daily Timeframe
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ETH Daily Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
ETH Daily Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
The current picture on the daily is mostly bullish with prices breaking above their Daily MA 200 and its May consolidation range.The RSI is still overbought therefore that may slow down the prices again, any continuation of the up move would be dependent on market sentiment.
ETH 4H Timeframe
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ETH 4H Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
ETH 4H Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Ethereum has consolidated above what was the preceding immediate resistance at 2,739 and is now considered the main pivot to future movements.The RSI went from overbought to slightly above neutral on the 4H timeframe accompanied by the 4H MA 20 - Candles are not showing any type of decision with a few three consecutive dojis.A break-retest scenario would hint at a continuation as towards the next resistance zone between 3,000 to 3,050 as long as prices don't re-enter the May Range.If they do, there is support at the 50 MA around 2,630 and after, the Main support zone 1 from 2,385 to 2,425.
ETH 1H Timeframe
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ETH 1H Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
ETH 1H Chart, June 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Price action looks a bit more mixed looking in the 1H timeframe - prices might be forming what resembles like a Head & Shoulders which would be confirmed with a bigger correction in other crypto assets.The H&S materializing would be pointing towards the 4H MA 50 level at 2,638.In the meantime, prices are consolidating in the pivot zone mentioned higher and would need to break above the 1H MA 50 to keep pushing higher.The immediate resistance point is the last highs at 2,879. Watch for any change in the global market tone as stocks went close to their highs again, which may drag up sentiment and cryptocurrencies with it.Safe trades!
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Markets Today: UK Economy Contracts for First Time in Six-Months, US-Iran Tension Stokes Haven Demand, DAX Slides
Markets are back on edge this morning thanks in part to rising tension between the US-Iran. Safe havens are once again experiencing inflows with Gold hitting an Asian session high around $3377/oz.For more, read Asia mid-session: Safe haven resurgence with Gold resuming bullish move
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Asian Market Wrap
Looking at the Asian session, stock futures and the dollar dropped after President Donald Trump announced plans to set new tariff rates within two weeks, increasing trade tensions. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%, while European stock futures dropped 0.8%.Trump also mentioned sending letters to trading partners about the tariffs, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the European Union might be one of the last to finalize a deal with the U.S.Asian stocks remained mostly unchanged.This new tariff threat came just a day after U.S. and Chinese officials had positive talks to ease tensions. While the U.S. is also negotiating with countries like India and Japan to reduce tariffs, some investors believe Trump’s comments are meant to speed up negotiations.However, it’s uncertain if he will stick to the two-week timeline, as similar deadlines in the past have often been delayed or not acted on.
US-Iran Tension on the Rise
President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that U.S. personnel are being moved out of the Middle East because it "could be a dangerous place." He also stated that the U.S. will not let Iran develop a nuclear weapon.Earlier, Reuters reported that the U.S. is planning a partial evacuation of its embassy in Iraq and will allow military families to leave certain areas in the Middle East due to increased security risks. However, neither U.S. nor Iraqi sources specified what those risks are. News of the evacuation caused oil prices to rise by over 4%.Oil prices rose by $3 following reports of the U.S. embassy evacuation in Baghdad, with Brent crude reaching $69.18 per barrel.Earlier, Britain’s maritime agency warned that rising tensions in the Middle East could lead to more military activity, potentially affecting shipping in key waterways like the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz near Iran. It advised ships to be cautious when traveling through these areas.The UK’s Foreign Office said it is closely watching the situation and will keep its Iraq embassy operations under review after the U.S. actions.The developments over the last 24 hours come as Iran conducted an espionage operation which resulted in thousands of military documents belonging to Israel being stolen. That coupled with Iran's insistence that so far the nuclear deal being discussed does not adequately address Iran's concerns but only those of the US and allies.For now, tension is tethering on a knife edge and anything could happen. Any escalation here could lead to increased volatility and a spike in haven demand.
UK GDP Contracts the Most in Nearly Two-Years
The British economy shrank by 0.3% in April 2025, its first drop in six months and the biggest since October 2023. This followed a 0.2% growth in March and was worse than the expected 0.1% decline. The downturn was caused by several factors, including higher energy bills, increased employer National Insurance contributions, higher Stamp Duty rates, and major tariffs announced by President Trump.The services sector, which had the biggest impact on the GDP drop, fell by 0.4%. Significant declines were seen in legal services (-10.2%), advertising and market research (-3.4%), and wholesale trade (-3.2%). Production also fell by 0.6%, with manufacturing down 0.9% and electricity and gas dropping 4.3%. On the other hand, the construction sector grew by 0.9%, showing some strength.Despite April’s decline, the economy still grew by 0.7% over the three months leading up to April.GDP Growth MoM
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Source: TradingEconomics, ONS
Source: TradingEconomics, ONS
The concern for the UK economy is today's data follows on from weak jobs data and a rise in unemployment. This would hint that the clouds may be gathering for the UK economy. A weaker job market, seasonal trends and global uncertainty that remains all suggest that the UK economy could continue to struggle in Q3.
The European Open
The London open has seen the US Dollar near its lowest point of 2025 while stocks pulled back slightly from record highs. Rising tensions in the Middle East and worries about the fragile trade truce between the U.S. and China pushed investors toward safer assets.A U.S. inflation report on Wednesday showed that overall price increases stayed low in May, mainly due to cheaper gasoline, cars, and housing. However, many economists believe inflation will rise as U.S. tariffs start to have a bigger impact.The dollar, which has dropped about 10% against other currencies this year, hit its lowest level since late April, which was also its weakest in three years.Traditional safe-haven assets gained ground. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen both strengthened, causing the dollar to drop about 0.6% against each. Meanwhile, gold stayed steady at $3,350 an ounce.Currency Power Balance
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Source: OANDA Labs
Source: OANDA Labs
Global stocks paused their strong rally since early April, with the MSCI All-Country World Index down 0.1%, just below Wednesday's record high. In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell 0.8%, mainly due to losses in airlines and carmakers as oil prices rose. U.S. stock futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also dropped 0.5%.The optimism from earlier in the week, after U.S.-China trade talks ended positively and President Trump called it a "great deal with China," had faded by Thursday. Markets now appear to have shifted focus to Iran with the IAEA this morning adding to uncertainty.The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, made up of 35 nations, passed a resolution on Thursday stating that Iran has violated its non-proliferation obligations. This is the first time in nearly 20 years that such a declaration has been made, according to diplomats at the private meeting. This comes after Iran accused members of the IAEA of leaking the name of Iranian nuclear scientists and other sensitive information to Israel, further complicating matters.
Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts
Looking at the economic calendar, today's focus will be on US PPI numbers which may be a better gauge of inflationary pressure as companies will provide an update. Price pressures may not have been passed to consumers yet and thus may not be visible in the CPI data but may show up in the PPI data.The comments from businesses may also be key as to how they see price pressures holding up thus far and what they expect from the months ahead.The data together with trade deals and now of course Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are all factors that could stoke volatility and shake markets ahead of the weekend.
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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
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Chart of the Day - DAX Index
From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has now surrendered the 24000 handle and is approaching key support at 23471.The index is tracking global markets as sentiment has taken a hit this morning on rising geopolitical risks.The risk of further downside at this stage remains closely linked to overall market sentiment which remains in a state of flux.Developments around the US-Iran could be the catalyst for moves for the rest of the week even with US PPI data scheduled later in the day.Immediate support below the 232471 handle may be found at 23212 and potentially the 50-day MA at 22922.A recovery from here may face a hurdle at 23870 before the 24000 handle comes back into focus.DAX Daily Chart, June 12. 2025
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Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
CPI Misses, Everything (But the Dollar) Rallies–Market Reactions
US Consumer Prices came in notably weaker than expected.Specifically, Core CPI, which was anticipated at +0.3% month-over-month, registered +0.1% month-over-month, bringing the year-over-year figure to 2.8%.Headline CPI also showed a softer reading, at 0.1% m/m against a 0.2% expectation.Markets had remained subdued at the beginning of the week in anticipation of this data, which provides further clarity on the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. As a reminder, last week's Non-Farm Payrolls report surprisingly beat expectations, coming in at 139K versus a 130K consensus.The market has reacted positively to this news. A strong employment backdrop coupled with easing price pressures presents an ideal scenario for the economy and significantly alleviates concerns about stagflation.Expect upcoming months' CPI reports to create similar reactions in terms of volatility!
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June CPI Data, June 11, 2025 – Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar
June CPI Data, June 11, 2025 – Source: MarketPulse Economic Calendar
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Market Reactions on the charts
Looking at the reactions from the charts, it seems like the market would have been less surprised by a beat than a miss – These asymmetrical expectations create quite volatile movements, there will be a lot of movement today.
Nasdaq Breaks 22,000
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Nasdaq 15m Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Nasdaq 15m Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Gold and US Bonds rally
This piece of news allows the pricing of more cuts, great news for both bonds and gold
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Gold 15m Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Gold 15m Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView
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US 10Y Bond 15m Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView
US 10Y Bond 15m Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView
The US Dollar Takes a hit on lower inflation, More cuts get priced
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Dollar Index 15m Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView
Dollar Index 15m Chart, June 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView
The piece of data largely invalidates the Inverse Head & Shoulders that was building as more cuts get priced in.I still don't expect the FED to cut on June 18th and expect board members to say that they welcome the news but are waiting for the release of more data – In the meantime, markets are still euphoric all-around.Commodities and Cryptos are also rallying with WTI up 2% on the session.Safe Trades!
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Breaking News: US CPI rises to 2.4% YoY in May vs 2.5% expected
Breaking: US CPI rises 0.1% MoM in May, below estimates of +0.3%. YoY CPI rose to 2.4%.Core CPI also rose 0.1% MoM, below estimates of +0.2%, now at 2.8% YoY.Key takeaway: Inflation is rising more slowly than predicted, alleviating fears of stagflation.
In the minutes that followed the release, the dollar (DXY) has fallen by 0.28%, while the Dow Jones has risen by 0.38%.
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investing.com, 11/06/2025
investing.com, 11/06/2025
Updates to follow shortly.
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Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
Breaking News: US CPI rises to 2.4% YoY in May vs 2.5% expected
Breaking: US CPI rises 0.1% MoM in May, below estimates of +0.3%. YoY CPI rose to 2.4%. Core CPI (ex food and energy) also rose 0.1% MoM, below forecasts of +0.2%, now at 2.8% YoY.
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US Consumer Price Index (CPI): Key Takeaways
Released today at 08:30 EDT, US inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), came in lower than expected, alleviating fears of sticky inflationWhile the Federal Reserve has recently renewed its commitment to following the data to determine future monetary policy decisions, today’s report shows inflation rising below expectations, increasing rate cut betsAlbeit falling below consensus today, the effects of previous tariffs on US inflation are yet to be fully understood, allowing the Federal Reserve an opportunity to delay rate cuts further
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Consumer Price Index YoY, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 11/06/2025
Consumer Price Index YoY, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 11/06/2025
US CPI: Federal Reserve expected to leave rates unchanged despite cooling inflationary fears
Writing ahead of their June 18th meeting, the Federal Reserve is still overwhelmingly predicted to leave rates unchanged, despite inflation coming in lower than expected.That said, pressure is now mounting on the Federal Reserve, which, by all accounts, will have a harder time justifying deferring rate cuts further, especially following renewed commitments to ‘follow the data’.
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@realDonalTrump, TruthSocial, 11/06/2025
@realDonalTrump, TruthSocial, 11/06/2025
Perhaps somewhat unsurprisingly, much of the aforementioned pressure comes by way of 47th president Donald Trump, who chose to reiterate demands for a 100bps rate cut following the release.In fairness, and when considering a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls last Friday, recent data objectively supports the notion of further rate cuts, at least for now.With that said, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to cut for the first time in September, likely to cite the potential for tariff-born inflation, the effects of which are yet to be fully understood.Read more on today’s CPI report, including market reaction: CPI Misses, Everything (But the Dollar) Rallies–Market Reactions
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Markets Today: Preliminary US-China Deal, DAX at Support & US Inflation Next
US-China Trade Deal Leaves a Lot of Questions Unanswered
The US and China eased trade tensions by agreeing on a preliminary plan to carry out the consensus reached in Geneva, according to negotiators. While full details of the deal aren't yet available, US officials said they are confident that issues related to rare earth minerals and magnets will be resolved under this plan.
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After two days of tough talks in London, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the new framework deal adds substance to the agreement made in Geneva last month to reduce the steep tariffs between the U.S. and China.The Geneva deal had stalled because China kept limiting exports of critical minerals, leading the Trump administration to impose its own export controls on items like semiconductor design software and aircraft.Lutnick said the London agreement will ease restrictions on China's rare earth minerals and magnets, as well as some U.S. export controls, in a "balanced way." However, he didn’t share specific details after the talks ended late at night in London.China's Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said they had agreed on a basic trade framework, which will now be presented to leaders in both the U.S. and China.Market reaction has been relatively positive but the lack of details remains somewhat concerning. This is evident by the moves we are seeing in Gold prices which remain elevated this morning, making a move toward $3350.It is a sign that a deal was expected, but the details will be more important and until we have clarity on that front markets may remain in a form of limbo.
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Source: LSEG
Source: LSEG
In China, signs of easing restrictions appeared as several rare earth magnet companies, like JL MAG Rare-Earth, Innuovo Technology, and Beijing Zhong Ke San Huan, announced they had received export licenses.China dominates the rare earth magnet market, essential for electric vehicle motors. Its decision in April to stop exporting many critical minerals and magnets disrupted global supply chains.In response, the U.S. stopped exporting semiconductor design software, chemicals, and aviation equipment in May, canceling previously issued export licenses.
Asian Market Wrap
Asian stocks saw small gains, with mainland China standing out. A regional stock index rose by 0.3%, while Hong Kong climbed 1% and mainland China gained 0.9%, leading the region.
The European Open
European stocks stayed mostly flat on Wednesday. The STOXX 600 index was nearly unchanged at 553.88 points by 0806 GMT.Investors were cautious, waiting for U.S. inflation data to see if tariffs were affecting the economy. In Europe, industrial metal miners rose 0.6%, and personal and household goods also saw gains.British homebuilders like Bellway and Vistry went up as finance minister Rachel Reeves prepared to announce plans for over £2 trillion in public spending to boost the UK economy.Retailers were the biggest losers, dropping 1.3%, with Zara's owner, Inditex, falling 5% after missing sales expectations. Inditex was the worst-performing stock on the index.On the FX front, the dollar strengthened slightly, causing the euro to dip 0.08% to 1.1416 and holding steady at 145.05 yen.China's onshore yuan stayed mostly unchanged at 7.1867/dollar, while the offshore yuan was at 7.1875, both near two-week lows.The dollar index, which tracks it against six other currencies, rose 0.17% to 99.129.Power Currency Balance
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Source: OANDA Labs
Source: OANDA Labs
Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts
Looking at the economic calendar, today's focus will be on sorely needed details for the US-China talks. Although there is a bit of optimism around markets the lack of clarity actually leaves investors none the wiser.This deal seems similar to the one struck a few weeks ago before tensions erupted over the weekend of June 1,2025. Until a comprehensive deal is announced with details market participants may hold onto their cautious approach.US CPI will take center stage later in the day as market participants eye whether US tariff policy is beginning to filter through to the consumer. There is an expectation that underlying inflation may rise and this could potentially stoke recessionary fears once more.Market participants would be more at ease heading into the inflation release with more details on the US-China talks but alas that is not going to be the case.Volatility may rear its head once more. An uptick in inflation could potentially weigh negatively on US markets and the US dollar as well. Markets may start to fear a global slowdown and recession if the data shows signs that underlying inflation is on the rise.
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For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)
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Chart of the Day - DAX Index
From a technical standpoint, the DAX index is back at 24000 support with the daily range still holding firm.The lack of commitment is being seen across markets and given the DAX v-shape recovery is understandable at present.The wee bit of optimism from today's US-China preliminary deal will likely keep the DAX supported and limit any downside moves.However, a jump in the US inflation print could heighten concerns of a recession and thus have a knock on effect on global equity markets.Immediate support at 24000, 23900, 23600.Immediate resistance rests at 24200 and 24500 respectively.FTSE 100 Daily Chart, June 11. 2025
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Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda
Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.
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