Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 31 Today's month-end session was gladly welcomed by ever-ecstatic investors.Yesterday's session really materialized into a powerful move to the upside across global assets as the narrative took a significant turn.President Trump gradually pointed towards a lower resolve to maintain the defense of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that European and Gulf countries would be the ones in place to take car of the quintessential strategic route for Oil tankers – Currently the most important 10km region on the entire planet.As Iran's President Pezeshkian confirmed, the talks are indeed ongoing and guarantees are demanded in order to move forward towards a more sustainable peace process.As indicated in our fresh WTI in-depth analysis, odds for a ceasefire by April 15 are still stuck around 25%, but this doesn't bar the way for de-escalation. This comes as a wonderful surprise to Participants which were gradually pricing for a long-lasting conflict.The situation is still far of being entirely resolved, with conditions for a deal still fragile, "trust levels at zero", as said by Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi, but just the simple idea of less uncertainty for the time being is a welcomed gift for Markets.Global assets exploded in today's action, with Silver up 7%, Gold up by 3%, Stock Indexes across the world following suit and Brent down 3% on the other hand.Today's strong moves could also have been magnified by the Month-End position closures, hence tomorrow will be an important test:Continuation of today's optimism hints at further continuation and a deal properly taking placeRejecting today's highs would mark the contrary, with doubts re-gaining the scene and more pain aheadA heavy fleet of US Marines are near and could still conduct a large operation if the narrative soured. Keep your eyes on this in case you see a swift turn in Markets.Even when the conflict is done, traders will still have to be extremely careful with what happens in the Strait of Hormuz and Oil prices. Read More:Brent-WTI falls to 2026 lows! Oil corrects as War resolution nears – WTI OutlookGold (XAU/USD) rallies 3%, eyes acceptance above the $4600/oz handle for bullish momentum to continueStocks explode as the US-Iran war may come to an end: Daily US Stock Market outlook and a step back on recent developmentsUSD Double Top as Markets slowly price end of War – US Dollar Index (DXY) outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 31, 2026 Today's was a long-hoped dream for dip-buyers, particularly as the early morning bounce saw significant continuation.The Market was overtly ecstatic in today's rebound, hence continuation will be mandatory to avoid burnt wings and rough stops – What is sure is that we haven't seen such optimism in a long time.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView Asset correlations have been a powerful tool to assist traders to navigate the past month's volatile conditions.And today remained heavy on this setup, which may abate as traders move on, with virtually all assets exploding higher except for the Crude and US Dollar couple.The dynamic won't be so straightforward if Oil remains above $100, so keep a close eye on the commodity!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 31, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs European and Risk-currencies have done what they did best when risk-off flows abate, having rallied significantly from the turn of events.Watch out for a lack of continuation if WTI remains elevated – Who takes care of the Strait of Hormuz going forward will be essential to track FX flows.The Euro did see significant relief today, hence, keep track of EUR/USD and whether or not it continues its ascent in coming days!A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's releases will be heavily focused on the US with Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMIs, with geopolitics once again taking the center stage for other macroeconomic movements.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil tumbles as traders are getting more convinced that the conflict is heading towards its endThe Brent-WTI spread erases its entire War premium, hinting at softer conditions in a stressed MarketExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity Traders are now slowly preparing for an end to the US-Iran conflict after 5-weeks of ceaseless, methodical attacks from the US-Israel coalition on IRGC military targets.The conflict has caused significant damage and volatility in global Markets, dampening equities and overall risk assets and even hurting traditional safe havens like Metals and bonds amid a rise in inflation expectations.Precious Metals like Gold actually began to trade as if they were typical risk assets during the war, as flagged in a HSBC piece – We are indeed in a new age for Markets!As always in the Middle East, Crude Oil is right in the center stage, having bounced about 50% since February 27, the Friday that preceded the commencement of the conflict.As the war began, the Brent-WTI spread, a historical indicator of energy commodity Market stress, had spiked to $18.65, levels unseen since February 2019 (excluding the extreme COVID spikes).This spread is now rushing back towards its yearly and pre-war lows. Brent-WTI Spread – Source: TradingView. March 31, 2026 This indicates a large easing in narrative, at least, which also could compromise Trump's threat to let European and Gulf nations take care of the Strait of Hormuz passage after the military operation.In any case, the spread easing in such a manner could further ease tensions in the Energy Market, as the two enemy-counterparties confirm they are engaged in more serious talks.China and Pakistan have formulated their own 5-point Peace Plan for a smoother, peaceful process ahead. That same plan wasn’t even criticized by President Trump in his daily address – given how verbal the President typically is, this was a first- and Markets took this as a sign of significant progress, boosting Equity Indexes by 2.50% each in the afternoon session. Odds for a US-Iran Ceasefire by April 15 – Source: Polymarket. March 31, 2026 For now, Polymarket odds for a ceasefire by April 15 are still only around 25%. Still, a lack of a ceasefire doesn't prevent a truce – how volatile that truce will be and under what conditions will dictate whether more consistent upside is warranted in risk assets.Upcoming headlines and developments will have to be contrasted heavily by Participants, particularly as expectations from here will be elevated, and today's session moves might be exaggerated by the Month-End flows.As the situation becomes clearer as the week continues, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to identify levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the situation. Read More:Stocks explode as the US-Iran war may come to an end: Daily US Stock Market outlook and a step back on recent developmentsUSD Double Top as Markets slowly price end of War – US Dollar Index (DXY) outlookGold (XAU/USD) rallies 3%, eyes acceptance above the $4600/oz handle for bullish momentum to continueUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart – March 31, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI's steep rise in previous sessions has seen a significant stop with the turn in narrative.Testing $107.80 in the overnight trading, the key resistance was then rejected, but the price action isn't so clear yet.Tumbling to $100 and reverting higher, traders will want to see a clear rejection to the downside to assume a clearer path ahead. The past two daily candlesticks have formed a Tweezer top, which coincides with a turn in RSI plus a bearish RSI pattern, all pointing to some downside.But timing will be important to avoid getting tricked by a sudden change in atmosphere – Waiting for a clear break below today's lows could be a better way to avoid getting stuck short.WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 31, 2026. Source: TradingView As seen in the intraday charts, recent candles are more pointing towards a very hesitant price action that a decidedly bearish reversal – In such setups, waiting for breakouts with Stop orders could prove a more efficient strategy.For bears, watch for a clean break below $100, with extra confirmation below $96.64 (4H 50 MA) and $92.70 for an final conflict support break.Bulls will want to see an extension and close above $108 to head back towards $116.WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance (morning highs)$110 psychological level2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Ukraine War Spike $120 to $124Support Levels$98 to $100 Momentum Pivot$96.64 4H 50-MAPivotal Support $93.00 to $95 $87 to $90 mini-Support$82.80 to $84 Key SupportWar flows Pivot $65.00 to $66.001H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 31, 2026. Source: TradingView The short-timeframe is more prone to fakeouts, particularly as headlines can quickly change the narrative, but for the most eager and impatient traders, a 1H Head and Shoulders pattern in arising, pointing towards $96.66 (200-Hour MA).A rally back above $106 would void the technical pattern.Safe Trades and keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar enjoyed a very consistent performance since the onset of the US-Iran conflict but now forms a double-topWith Traders starting to price a resolution for the conflict, the Dollar could lose some steam, particularly at the top of its rangeUS Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis Timing Markets is a difficult task, absolutely key to generating as much profit as possible from important fundamental setups.It is indeed important to be timely with your trade to ensure that entries remain favorable and the risk-reward remains positive – but an essential part of timing is not being too early.The US Dollar has been on a significant uptrend since the end of the January FOMC (as forecasted here) and is now testing the extremes of its gigantic 95.50-100.50 range.This is where timing entries is a daunting task – one could just begin shorting the US Dollar as soon as it reaches its highs, but when double tops occur, they often come to get your stops.That is when confirmation steps in to provide even more favorable entries and timing – It can be Fundamental, with a change in narrative (something that is kind of emerging as of late), or a confirmation in Technicals. Sometimes it can actually be both, and this is what could now be offered in the US Dollar.Nothing is sure in Markets, particularly during volatile periods when breaking news can change the entire picture in a matter of a few seconds – but at least, some setups can look better than others.As we speak, the US Dollar is rejecting its War highs for the third consecutive test, forming a Double Top – Both the US and Israel are slowly looking to turn the page on the full month of operations, particularly with the Trump Administration considering ending the conflict without taking control of the Strait of Hormuz to punish against European and Asia allies that did not manifest their appetite for such operations (and even went against it, like Spain).The reversal, if it does arrive, may not unfold in one session but progressive waves as the narrative slowly switches. Crude Oil prices still dictate general Market flows, so its drop will have to be the extra confirmation signal.We’ll explore a few scenarios for a potential large reversal in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY. Discover:Markets Today: China factory activity surges, French inflation jumps, FTSE 100 eyes further gain as data releases lie aheadIs the War really reaching its end? Assets bounce despite Oil rally – Market CheckQ2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView While headline chasers are getting fooled by the latest dedollarization and end of the World narrative, as traders it is essential to take a step back, mute the noise, and see if any real trend is emerging to avoid falling into Confirmation Bias loops and miss on significant opportunities.For example, the same happened after the pre-FOMC Trump-led US Dollar flash-crash, where the world of Finance could have swore as a whole that the USD was finished.Yet here we are at 6-month highs. The significant range established after the July 2025 TACO Dollar lows is still holding (despite having wicked above and below).Now reacting at its highs, it will be interesting to see if a downside reversal occurs from here, particularly after the double top and a Daily RSI bearish divergence.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar is officially rejecting its 100.50 War highs, forming the famous double top, with momentum quickly shifting.As long as prices remain within the 100.00 to 100.50 Zone, the action is more balanced than bearish, hence it could be a decent time to look around Markets for interesting setups – Two elements to look for are:Are buyers returning at short-term support levels ?(4H 50-MA & January Uptrend ~ 99.70)If they don't, what is the most optimal FX pair to trade to capture the potential reversal?In that event, look for trades expressing this view in other FX pairs (AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD?)And don't forget that such reversal don't occur in one swift move! They also have pullbacks and more.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)May 2025 Resistance 101.30 to 101.80Major Weekly Resistance 102.50 to 103.00Support Levels99.70 mini-support99.40 to 99.50 Momentum Pivot (bearish below)98.70 to 99.00 Support98.00 Key Mid-Range SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.001H Chart Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. March 31, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is now slightly mean-reverting after quickly reaching oversold 1H RSI levels – look for a small retracement for entries on Major FX pairs.Psychological levels tend to attract decent reactions in FX, returning to the 50-hour MA (100.30) would provide an optimal short-USD setup, as long as the narrative doesn't switch again and the war drags on for much longer.To void the short-setup, watch if bulls manage to drag the Dollar above 100.55 and close above it on the daily.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

We are now officially entering the fifth week of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, which sent bombs flying all over the Middle East, but more concerningly, sent Global Assets flying all over.The main culprit was Crude Oil prices – rallying about 50% since its Monthly open, the commodity hasn't failed to contribute its fair part in overall volatility.After sustaining a broad, inverted correlation with most asset classes and currencies, this trend appears to be abating – Traders are now really looking to relax their preceding angst with the US entering into more consistent negotiations with their enemy-counterpart in the Islamic regime, and Israel also prepares for final waves of attack to dampen the military reconstruction efforts.Black Gold is now at a spot where uncertainty is priced in, leaving only a premium for the proper lack of supply that would traditionally go through the infamous Strait of Hormuz.Brent has been stuck above $110 since the weekly open, and WTI remains well above $100. WTI 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. March 30, 2026 Key levels to watch for WTI:To the upside:$106 ~ Closing above could maintain further bullish pressure$110 ~ Psychological level not seen since the mid-March spike$120 ~ War highs, above this, things could get catastrophic for the economyTo the downside:$100 ~ Correcting back below would boost the current ease in sentiment significantly$90 ~ Short-term momentum turns bearish for the commodity, Markets should pick up their rebound$85 ~ Any move below this would confirm that the situation is indeed not worsening, best sign for Markets – Every asset becomes a buy on a daily close below. Oil rising isn't such a surprise to most of us, but the more peculiar change in today's flows comes from the fact that at a despite this rise, Bonds are rallying (yields lower – implying lower inflation expectations), Stocks bounced, but seem to remain under pressure (at least, not worsening for now) and Metals have formed what a more consistent bottom. An Unfamiliar Session in Markets – Courtesy of Finviz If anything was dampening Market mood throughout last week, it was the fact that failed diplomatic attempts could not generate a much larger continuum of tranquility.But if the current, more realistic, conversations really turn into something positive, the 5-week period could be precise, and next week could be a great opportunity to join a bounce.It is, of course, very early to say, considering that the US President and his Administration are so unpredictable, and it would be a mistake to assume that the Iranian regime is not.In any case, month-end is approaching and could bring significant changes to the flows Participants have been accustomed to throughout this long and crazy March.US Treasuries are rallying, the most optimistic sign US Bonds (and Fixed Income in general) were among the worst performers across all asset classes this month, under intense pressure from rising inflation expectations.With the tumble in Fixed-Income (and rising yields), Bond Vigilantes were pricing out all types of Rate Cuts across the globe, implying that the repercussions of rising Oil would prevent lower rates and even lead to some Monetary Policy rises (as seen in Europe and England).Why is it important to check bonds in this environment? This asset class is the most reactive to risk news and inflation expectations – If they ease, other assets will be subject to much less constraints (as Stocks tend to see delayed bounces in such an environment). US Bonds since beginning March – Courtesy of Finviz Despite their morning bounce, they still have a lot to recover, and their bounce is proving challenged by the fresh bid in Oil.For the 30Y Yield, keep a close eye on 5.00% to the upside, 4.75% to the downside.For the 2Y Yield, 4.03% to the upside (+ hikes priced in) and 3.75% to the downside.Metals rebound but still under pressure Metals performance since last Monday – Source: TradingView Metals have indeed marked their bottom, but the rest will be to see if they can actually maintain a higher path for longer.Their nature as diversification asset hold them in the middle of two different narratives –Are they going to rally from the lower hike pricings?Are they going to resume their drops from the drop in uncertainty?In this mix of fate, it seems that rangebound conditions may prevail in the precious commodities until a breakout follows.Don't forget to check out our in-depth Technical Analysis for Gold right here.The US Dollar remains on top of its game Despite the easing narrative, the US Dollar remains a top-dog in this weekly open.The Dollar Index is pointing towards a breakout, but failing here may also form a double-top, so expect this monthly close to be a significant indicator for what's to come for FX Markets in April. Dollar Index 4H Chart – Source: TradingView. March 30, 2026 The direction is for now difficult to predict, with the latest rally being very persistent – So the best is to wait for confirmation.Rejecting back in the 100.30 resistance should see continuation to the downside.Breaking and closing on the month above 100.60 could lead to a larger USD breakout. The current FX Session – Courtesy of Finviz Markets are repricing an imminent FX Intervention for the JPY, prompting its outperformance in today – Apart from it, the US Dollar is flawless in its daily rally.Month-end flows (throughout the session tomorrow) will be a preview of what's to come!Safe Trades and keep track of the conflict progress throughout this week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The protracted Middle East conflict is the primary driver of market volatilityEuro Area economic sentiment tumbled, driven by a spike in inflation expectations that creates a "stagflationary"Brent crude is surging toward a record monthly gain on supply fears, while the US Dollar (DXY) is near 10-month highs, overshadowing Gold and pressuring the Yen and commodity currencies.Most Read: GBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataMarkets have started the week on a tentative note with Asian stocks sliding as investors dug in for a protracted Gulf conflict.The geopolitical landscape remains the primary driver of market volatility this week as the Middle East conflict enters a more dangerous phase, threatening both energy stability and global risk appetite.On the fundamental front, President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the US could seize Iran’s Kharg Island has sent a shudder through the energy sector, as the facility remains the lifeblood of Iranian oil exports; however, the President’s simultaneous nod toward a potential ceasefire adds a layer of "fragile optimism" that markets are struggling to price accurately.This uncertainty is compounded by the Houthi’s first direct strikes on Israel, a development that underscores Iran’s significant leverage through its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its ability to disrupt critical supply chains.For Asia, which remains acutely sensitive to Middle Eastern energy flows, the impact has been immediate and bearish. From a technical perspective, the Nikkei 225 (.N225) has seen its losses for March accelerate to nearly 13% after shedding another 3.4%, while the KOSPI (.KS11) and the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) continue to break lower, down 3.0% and 1.3% respectively.With cross-market correlations tightening, the question for traders now is whether these support levels will hold or if the mounting pressure on the US to escalate will trigger a deeper correction across the region.Euro Area economic sentiment takes a hit The Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) tumbled to 96.6 in March, missing the 96.8 consensus as Middle East tensions reignite inflationary fears.The fundamental shift is clear: consumer confidence collapsed to -16.3, driven by a massive 17.2-point spike in inflation expectations. While the services sector held steady at 5.0, retailers felt the pinch, dropping to -7.2.The most concerning data for the ECB is the manufacturing sector; despite a marginal sentiment improvement to -7.2, selling price expectations jumped 7.4 points to 19.7. This suggests businesses are already preparing to pass higher costs onto consumers. Regionally, the pain was concentrated in France (-3.7) and Spain (-2.4), while Germany remained flat.From a trading perspective, this "stagflationary" mix of plunging confidence and rising price pressures complicates the path for rate cuts and clouds the Euro’s technical outlook.European shares edge higher after the open European indices staged a cautious recovery on Monday, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 gaining 0.3% as markets attempt to navigate a complex geopolitical backdrop.The primary narrative remains centered on the Middle East, where surging oil prices hitting levels not seen since 2022 are creating a dual-edged sword for central banks.While energy costs are inherently inflationary, there is a growing fundamental shift in market sentiment: investors now bet that the potential "economic drag" from these costs may actually handcuff central banks, limiting their scope for further rate hikes.Technically, we are seeing a clear divergence in performance; Utilities and Energy are leading the charge, with TotalEnergies (+1.9%) and Iberdrola (+2.1%) seeing strong inflows. Defensives like AstraZeneca (+1.1%) and Nestlé (+1.4%) also offered support, while high-beta and luxury names like Hermès (-0.4%) and UBS (-0.9%) faced selling pressure.From a trading perspective, the key takeaway is that while the headline indices are green, the "cracks" are visible in the banking and luxury sectors, suggesting that risk appetite remains tethered to how the US manages the escalating friction with Tehran.Commodity markets The energy complex is currently witnessing a historic squeeze, with Brent crude surging 2.8% to $115.77 and eyeing a record monthly gain.This follows a massive 4.2% jump on Friday, as the fundamental risk premium surrounding Iran continues to intensify. Similarly, WTI has cleared the $101 level, gaining 1.9% today after a staggering 5.5% rally in the previous session.From a technical standpoint, the momentum in oil is purely driven by supply-side fears as the market prices in a potential total disruption of Iranian exports.In the metals space, Gold managed a 1% bounce today on "bargain-hunting," but the broader picture remains decidedly bearish. The precious metal is currently on track for its worst monthly performance in nearly two decades, having plummeted over 14% in March.This aggressive sell-off was catalyzed by a rampant US Dollar, which has gained more than 2% since the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.Despite today’s minor recovery from the $4,097.99 lows, the technical damage to Gold is significant, as the safe-haven bid has been completely overshadowed by the "King Dollar" trade and soaring Treasury yields.How did FX markets react? The US Dollar continues its relentless charge, hovering near 10-month highs as it prepares to lock in its most aggressive monthly gain since last July. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm around the 100.19 mark, having touched a mid-month peak of 100.54—its highest level since May 2025.From a fundamental perspective, the Greenback is cannibalizing global risk appetite as traders price in a "geopolitical premium" that shows no signs of dissipating.The Japanese Yen is back in the danger zone, languishing near the critical 160 per-dollar handle. This level is particularly significant as it marks the weakest point for the Yen since July 2024, a threshold that previously triggered direct intervention from Tokyo.While the Euro found a minor technical floor near $1.15 on the back of ECB rate hike expectations, the broader trend remains bearish with the currency on track for a 2.5% monthly decline.The "commodity currencies" are bearing the brunt of this Dollar dominance. The Australian Dollar slipped 0.3% to $0.6851, accelerating toward its steepest monthly drop since late 2024, while the New Zealand Dollar has plummeted 4.4% in March alone.For traders, the technical setup suggests that as long as the US maintains its hawkish stance amid Middle East tensions, the path of least resistance for the majors remains to the downside.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsGBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataPeace hopes? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 23Economic calendar and final thoughts The European session will bring us German CPI data later today.This week, all eyes shift to the US labor market for the next major fundamental catalyst, with a heavy data slate including JOLTS, ADP, and the highly anticipated March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).The market consensus currently sits at a modest +60k for job growth with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. From a policy perspective, a print in line with these expectations would likely cement the narrative of Federal Reserve tightening as a necessary response to the ongoing energy shock.However, any technical "miss" or surprise weakness in the headline numbers could finally trigger a much-needed correction in the Dollar’s vertical ascent.The DXY is once again flexing its muscles above the 100.00 handle, and a retest of the critical resistance zone at 100.25/50 appears imminent this week. Unless we see a definitive de-escalation in rhetoric from Tehran, the fundamental "fear bid" makes it difficult to envision the Greenback retracing its March gains in the near term.On the intraday front, traders should keep a close watch on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled for a moderated discussion at 4:30 PM CET. Any hawkish tilt in his commentary regarding the energy-driven inflation spike could provide the fuel needed to clear that 100.50 resistance level.Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index The UK 100 remains in a clear bearish structure on the H4 timeframe, trading well below its 50 and 200-period SMAs. After a aggressive sell-off earlier in March, the index is currently battling psychological resistance at the 10,000 mark.Technically, a failure to decisively reclaim 10,000 keeps the door open for a retest of recent swing lows near 9,816. While the RSI shows a slight bullish divergence following "BULL" signals, momentum remains tepid.A sustained break above 10,100 is required to shift the bias toward the 10,225/269 resistance zone. Until then, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside, with the 9,661 level serving as the next major support floor if 9,800 fails.FTSE 100 Four-Hour Chart, March 27, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 27 Today's session marked the interest payment from Markets to borrowed tranquility throughout the beginning of this week. And the price is hefty. After the first few trading days of the week, it could have been easy to say that blue skies are ahead and current prices are gifts that any investor would take, amid historically elevated Markets.But there is no free lunch in this economy, and Participants made global assets pay for this fragile rebound. President Trump welcomed Investors with a soft message at the beginning of the week, then delivered a sharp shift in tone regarding Iran in his first weekly Truth Social Post.A 3% prompt rally across all Stock Markets and overall Markets followed, accompanied by a drop in WTI to $88, but the effect was merely temporary; the slow, then accelerating, grind higher that followed in Black Gold reshaped this positive trajectory for the worse.Gradually, people realized that the optimism from the White House would not have been realistic enough to bring about a real end to the ongoing conflict. As the week ended with further fears of a prolonged conflict, Stocks got hit with a nasty hangover. S&P 500 4H Chart (CFD) – Source: TradingView After all, without a concrete resolution to the still-blockaded Strait of Hormuz and a real, long-term guarantee that the conflict won't escalate further, Markets cannot rally.Traders need trust to return to persistent buying of already elevated valuations. Particularly given that Wall Street fiercely held the initial rise in WTI and the US Dollar, it could only be the beginning of much more pain ahead.Of course, a return to positive sentiment will only be contingent on the conflict not extending much longer, as more disruptions in Oil prices can now be expected to precede a large drag on global economies.It could be too early to say that inflation effects will actually lead to Central Bank hikes, something that Markets fear like the Boogieman – but even if they don't, the strain on economies from higher petrol prices amid a still-growing but stagnating economy could be too much to hold for Equity bulls.At least, Metals are rebounding, with Markets now assuming this pain could get deeper and harsher, triggering the need for some safe havens.We will know more over the weekend. The way to know more is to watch how Bitcoin moves, as other Markets will be closed. If you see green, a deal could really be drawing.If you see large red prints, assume that the war could last at least a few more weeks beyond the announced deadline. Check out our recent Bitcoin analysis to learn more on such catalysts and levels of interest. Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsStocks reach new lows as War goes on – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookGold (XAU/USD) bounces despite the Oil rally, a first since the US-Iran War – In-depth outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 27, 2026 Most of the moves in Stock Markets aggravated as the session went on and the bloodshed continued.Utilities and Industrials were outperformers but they ceded to the general pressure with only Energy Stocks bouncing. Tech, Finance and Mag 7s dragged Equities in today's interest paying selloff.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The asset map shows a classic inflation repricing picture, with Cryptos and Stocks, particularly the highest Beta-assets, hurting the most in another harsh selloff.Bonds once again took a turn to the downside, unable to withhold the pressure of WTI retaking $100 – Metals are once again shining as the true safe-havens in the latest Market turn.Of course, WTI and its US Dollar peer are the two leaders of the pack – Monday will be very interesting as this could just be the beginning of a much tougher move.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 27, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs As per usual on strong Oil session, the US Dollar ends up on top with the Canadian Dollar doing its best to catch up.On the other hand, all other currencies suffered on the day – Taking a step back, the extent of FX movement was still relatively contained.A look at Economic data releasing over the weekend and Monday's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Next week will be a much heavier one for Macro, with Inflation reports coming for the Eurozone and Japan to start the week.Those who enjoy Fedspeak will have to log in to two of the most important speakers at the Fed: Mr Powell at 10:30 (ET) and Fed's Williams at 16:30 (ET) – Expect both speeches to be large movers for the US Dollar and rate expectations!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Pullback complete, bullish structure emerging: WTI corrected 17% from $102.25 to $85.50 but has stabilised above its 20-day moving average, reclaimed $93.70, and is now positioned to retest the $102.25 resistance.Fundamentals support upside pressure: Deepening backwardation (-21.74) signals tightening near-term supply amid escalating US–Iran tensions, reinforcing upward pressure on crude prices.Breakout levels to watch: A sustained move above $102.25 could trigger a fresh bullish leg toward $111–$124, while a break below $85.50 would invalidate the bullish view and expose downside toward the $81–$73 zone. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: WTI crude oil rally almost reached $102.25, risk of minor setback towards $88.36,” published on 16 March 2026.The price actions of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) have staged the expected minor corrective pullback of 17% from its key $102.25 near-term range resistance after a retest on Monday, 23 March 2026, at the start of the London session to hit an intraday low of $85.50 at mid-London session on the same day due US President Trump’s “optimistic claims” that US and Iran are in the process of negotiating an immediate ceasefire deal.Thereafter, the West Texas Oil CFD traded sideways above its 20-day moving average as Iran rejected the US’s ceasefire proposal and continued to strike the Gulf states’ key installations as the US-Iran war entered its 28th day.In addition, conflicting messages are being sent out from the US White House Administration. US President Trump has extended by 10 days his pledge to refrain from attacks on Iranian energy-producing sites and added that the “negotiation talks are going very well”.On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal has reported that the Pentagon is considering sending additional troops, as many as 10,000, to the Middle East, on top of the already deployed 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. Hence, increasing the odds of a US ground invasion into Iranian soil as soon as this weekend.Right now, several technical factors are suggesting the potential start of a new bullish up move sequence for West Texas crude oil at this juncture.WTI calendar spread remains in negative territory Fig. 1: WTI crude oil term structure (12-month forward minus spot rate) as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The WTI crude oil calendar spread, defined as the difference between the 12-month forward price and the spot price, serves as a gauge of the market’s structural conditions.A positive spread (contango) reflects a typical environment where futures trade at a premium to spot, factoring in storage and transportation costs.In contrast, a negative spread (backwardation) signals near-term supply tightness, with strong prompt demand pushing spot prices above futures.At the time of writing, the spread has deepened into backwardation at -21.74, marking its most negative level since 6 March 2026 (-23.92) on the onset of the ongoing US-Iran war (see Fig. 1).Hence, near-term prices of WTI crude oil are likely to face further upside pressure.Let’s switch our attention to the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil.WTI Crude Oil – Imminent potential bullish breakout above $102.25 minor range top Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The minor price structure of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) has turned more constructive over the past four sessions, supported by its ability to hold above a rising 20-day moving average.On Thursday, 26 March 2026, it has cleared above its $93.70 near-term resistance and is en route to retest its $102.25 minor range resistance in place since 16 March 2026.Watch the $88.36/85.50 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the current bullish momentum, and a clearance above $102.25 increases the odds of a fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence to seek out the next intermediate resistances at $111.28, $116.56/119.54, and $124.40 (see Fig. 2).However, a break and an hourly close below $85.50 invalidates the bullish scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at $81.85, $77.26/76.83, and $73.38 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias on WTI crude oil Price actions remain above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates that the medium-term uptrend phase remains intact.The hourly MACD trend indicator has just flashed out a bullish crossover condition above its centreline. This latest positive observation has occurred above its prior bullish breakout above its former key descending resistance on Thursday, 26 March 2026. An indication of a change of trend in the West Texas Oil CFD, from sideways to a minor bullish trend. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar remains strong near multi-month highs, driven by safe-haven demandOil prices cooled slightly this week after a temporary extension of an ultimatum regarding strikes on Iranian energy facilities, though WTI and Brent crude remain historically elevated.Market participants will watch closely monitoring the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reportMost Read: GBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataAsian markets showed signs of stabilization on Friday as a brief reprieve in Middle East tensions allowed shares to recover from their initial lows.While the global economy remains under pressure from a persistent energy crunch, investor sentiment was bolstered by US President Donald Trump's decision to extend an ultimatum regarding strikes on Iranian infrastructure. By pushing the deadline back an additional 10 days, following previous extensions, the administration provided a temporary cooling effect on oil prices.Despite this slight recovery, the regional outlook remained largely negative. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) sat 0.7% lower on the day, contributing to a 2.3% loss for the week, its fourth consecutive weekly decline.Japan’s Nikkei managed to weather the volatility better than its peers, ending the week with a marginal 0.3% gain despite a flat performance on Friday.In contrast, Chinese markets outperformed the broader region. Both the CSI300 blue-chip index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.7%, driven by reports of potential policy shifts in Beijing.According to sources, the Chinese government is weighing a plan to ease shareholding restrictions for major investors. This move is intended to provide commercial banks with more flexible capital-raising options as they navigate a broader domestic economic slowdown.UK retail sales falls in February British retail performance experienced a moderate pullback in February 2026, with sales volumes dipping 0.4% month-on-month. While this represented the first decline in three months, the figure was notably more resilient than the 0.7% drop analysts had anticipated.This cooling period followed a robust, upwardly revised 2% surge in January, suggesting a natural stabilization after a period of high consumer activity.Industry experts attributed the slump largely to unseasonably wet weather, which stifled footfall at supermarkets and household goods retailers.Additionally, online and non-store retailers saw a slight decrease in volume, as many consumers had reportedly front-loaded their spending in January to capitalize on aggressive seasonal discounts. This shift in timing, combined with the dampening effect of heavy rainfall, created a temporary lull in the retail sector’s momentum.Despite the monthly contraction, the broader data suggests a degree of underlying strength, though the pace of growth is slowing.On an annual basis, retail volumes grew by 2.5%, a significant step down from the 4.8% increase seen in January. When looking at the three-month period ending in February, sales remained up by 0.7%.However, retailers remain cautious as they look toward the horizon, facing the dual headwinds of escalating energy costs and continued geopolitical instability.European shares edge lower European equity markets retreated slightly on Friday, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both dipping approximately 0.2%. The early optimism sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to extend the pause on strikes against Iranian energy facilities began to evaporate as the reality of high energy costs set in.While the deadline for negotiations has been pushed back 10 days to April 6, the underlying pressure of rising oil prices continues to stoke global inflation fears, weighing heavily on investor sentiment.The tangible impact of the conflict was evidenced by fresh economic data from Spain, where preliminary March estimates showed inflation surging to its highest level since 2024. Monthly prices in Spain jumped by 1%, the sharpest spike since 2022 driven primarily by energy disruptions linked to the war with Iran.This inflationary pressure led to a mixed performance among major European players; industrial and financial heavyweights like Siemens (-1.4%), ASML Holding (-1%), and HSBC Holdings (-0.8%) saw declines, while Shell also slipped 0.3%.Despite the lackluster end to the week, the broader European markets managed to secure a positive weekly performance. Defensive and tech-heavy stocks provided some insulation, with AstraZeneca jumping 3.2% and SAP rising 1.4%.These gains helped the STOXX 50 finish the week up 1.1%, while the STOXX 600 recorded a total weekly increase of 1.3%, showing that regional indices remain resilient even as geopolitical uncertainty lingers.Commodity markets Despite the intense volatility seen since the onset of the conflict on February 28, oil prices cooled slightly this week as markets reacted to the latest diplomatic extensions. WTI futures, which have surged 40% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, recorded a 4.6% weekly decline. Similarly, Brent crude, up more than 48% since the start of the war, retreated by 4% over the same period. While these prices remain historically elevated, the temporary reprieve in hostilities provided a brief window for energy markets to stabilize.The precious metals sector saw a different dynamic on Friday, as Gold climbed 2% fueled by a softening US dollar and opportunistic bargain hunting. Despite this daily gain, the metal remains on track for its fourth consecutive weekly loss, largely due to a hawkish shift in monetary policy expectations.According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders have completely priced out any US interest rate cuts for 2026 and now see a 35% probability of a rate hike by year-end. This is a stark reversal from the pre-conflict sentiment, which had anticipated two rate cuts this year.Other industrial and precious metals also posted significant gains during Friday’s session. Spot silver jumped 3.1% to reach $70.10 per ounce, while the PGM (platinum group metals) sector showed even stronger momentum. Spot platinum surged 3.5% to $1,891.02, and palladium rose 3.3% to finish at $1,398.30.This broad-based rally in metals suggests that while energy prices took a breather, investors are still hedging against long-term inflationary pressures and geopolitical instability.How did FX markets react? The US dollar maintained its position near multi-month highs on Friday as renewed safe-haven demand drove investors toward the currency. This persistent strength is being fueled by a "higher-for-longer" outlook for energy prices, which has created an inflationary pulse strong enough to shift market expectations.Market participants are now increasingly pricing in a potential US interest rate hike by the end of the year, providing a consistent bid for the greenback amidst global uncertainty.While the dollar index softened marginally to 99.83 on Friday, it remains on a trajectory for a 2.2% monthly gain, its most significant monthly advance since July of last year.This broad strength has left other major currencies struggling to regain ground. The Japanese yen (JPY), for instance, continues to hover on the edge of the critical 160 per dollar threshold, last trading at 159.58.Other European currencies showed little signs of a meaningful recovery. The euro (EUR) managed a slight 0.1% uptick to $1.1540 as it nursed recent losses, while the British pound (GBP) remained largely stagnant at $1.3339.As the dollar continues to dominate the foreign exchange landscape, the contrast between US monetary expectations and the economic pressures facing Europe and Asia remains a central theme for currency traders.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Chart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?GBP/USD Chart Alert: Bull flag pattern in play ahead of retail sales dataPeace hopes? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 23Economic calendar and final thoughts The European session will be quiet today with Spanish inflation data already released. We will get the ECB CPI expectations which could shake up volatility but may not have a lasting impact on the Euro.US economic data is expected to remain secondary to the shifting headlines from the Middle East. However, market participants are closely monitoring the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 4:00 PM CET, specifically the inflation expectations component. Preliminary readings indicated a notable uptick, with one-year expectations rising to 3.6% and the five-to-ten-year outlook climbing to 3.5%.A further increase in these figures could bolster the US dollar, as it would likely push the Federal Reserve toward a more aggressive "tightening camp" to ensure medium-term expectations remain anchored.The market has already begun adjusting to this inflationary pressure, with five-year and ten-year zero-coupon inflation swaps rising by 20bp and 5bp, respectively, this month. Currently, traders have priced in approximately 15bp of Federal Reserve tightening for the year. If consumer sentiment data reveals a significant jump in these expectations, market participants may more actively bet on a rate hike, a shift that would likely strengthen the dollar while simultaneously weighing on risk-sensitive assets. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - US Dollar Index (DXY) In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains well-supported, hovering near the upper boundary of its 99.00–100.00 trading range.There is potential for a further push toward the 100.25/50 area, a move that would keep risk currencies under significant pressure.As long as inflation expectations continue to drift upward, the dollar is poised to remain the primary beneficiary of this hawkish shift in monetary sentiment.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, March 27, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBP/USD is under pressure due to cautious market sentiment, USD strength stemming from Middle East ceasefire strains, and uncertainty following President Trump's delay of Iran's energy plant destruction.Technical analysis reveals a bull flag pattern on the H1 chart, suggesting a potential 100-pip rallyIf the price fails to clear the 200 SMA and breaks the 1.3320 support, a move toward the YTD low of 1.3223 is possible.Most Read: Chart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?GBP/USD edged its way lower on Thursday as hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East came under strain. Mixed reports and comments from both sides saw markets adopt a cautious approach with the USD gaining a bid as a result.Late in the day President Trump announced the delay of Iran's energy plant destruction by ten days, until April 6 at 08:00 PM Eastern Time. President Trump emphasized that talks between Washington and Tehran are going "very well" and he decided to pause at the request of the Iranian Government. Trump’s previous deadline was Friday, with the question now being whether this is genuine or another ruse ahead of the weekend? Source: TruthSocial Markets may remain concerned that the US could mount a ‘sneak attack’ over the weekend with defensive positioning and haven demand likely to catch a bid as a result. Such a scenario could weigh on GBP/USD.What do the technicals say? Looking at the technical picture and on the H1 chart below GBP/USD has edged its way lower since printing a fresh high around 1.34800 on March 23.There is a bull flag pattern in play on the H1 chart with a breakout leading to a potential 100-pip rally to the upside.Such a move does face challenges though, as price is currently trading near 1.3333, sitting just below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). There is also the 100 SMA (Blue), which is currently above the 200 SMA (Black) at around the 1.3372 handle.Both of these MAs will need to be cleared first if a rally higher and breakout of the bull flag pattern is to materialize.If the price remains below the 200 SMA (Black line) and breaks the 1.3320 support, expect a move toward the YTD low of 1.3223.GBP/USD Daily Chart, March 26, 2026 Source: TradingView UK retail sales to serve as a catalyst? Early on Friday UK retail sales data is due in what is otherwise a rather quiet day on the economic calendar front. Market consensus is for a print -0.8% MoM print with the YoY print 2.1%.A better than expected figure may provide a temporary bounce for GBP/USD but is unlikely to inspire a sustained break of the bull flag pattern. Any gains may prove temporary without a material change to overall sentiment which continues to support the greenback. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 26 It would have been unrealistic to assume that a bottom has been reached without a significant advancement in the war.Today, sentiment took a downturn as President Trump shifted his rhetoric, becoming more aggressive in response to Iran, which has, until now, refused to make concessions for a longer peace deal.In an address at the White House during the midday session, the Commander in Chief of the U.S. Army revealed that their enemy counterpart had offered substantial gifts, including a fleet of ten tankers, to facilitate the ongoing indirect negotiations in Pakistan.The issue is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is unwilling to compromise on its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its highly valued, albeit dangerous, ballistic missile program. Although Israel has begun to realize that the U.S. is prepared to conclude the conflict sooner rather than later, it is still too early to say whether a deal will be reached before the 5-day deadline (which ends on Saturday). Therefore, the possibility of a ground invasion remains a consideration, as a heavy Marine fleet is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea within the next 24 hours.A recent report from the Wall Street Journal suggesting that the war may end sooner than anticipated has not been enough to invigorate market sentiment. Investors are increasingly concerned about potential escalation before any resolution.Virtually all asset classes are experiencing the impact of the uncertain market conditions, with metals down an average of 4% across the asset class, along with declines in cryptocurrencies, stocks, and bonds. Hope alone cannot do much to alleviate such an uncertain market environment.Tomorrow’s weekly close will be crucial in this regard. Any positive developments ahead of the weekend could lead to a significant rebound in global assets – This would first be observed in Crypto Markets (which remain open 24/7). Additionally, inflation expectations, which will be released tomorrow at 10:00 A.M. ET, will need to be monitored closely. Read More:Logical skepticism for peace pulls the Petrodollar higher – EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY) overviewOptimism fades and Nasdaq burns its wings – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookChart Alert: META down 7%, GOOGL breaks key support. What comes next for the tech heavyweights?Too soon for a Crypto bounce – Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) OutlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 26, 2026 Today was the mark of another brutal session for Tech, decidedly struggling in 2026, dragging its main representative, the Nasdaq, at the lows of US Index performances(-2%).Meta was the main culprit but it alone did not justify the broad risk-aversion seen in Market.Producer Manufacturing also got rejected harshly from the re-escalation fears.As explored in our daily Stock Market Check, Tech had remained quite resilient while its more defensive peers struggled. But when chickens come to roost, higher-beta assets always get dragged further.Tomorrow and Monday will mark essential final tests to avoid a larger catastrophy for Wall Street.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today was a bloodbath in the Market, with the regular Petrodollar and Crude combo ravaging everything on their way, with a particular strength.This strength arises from the fact that this week's rebound was quite fragile, with sentiment remaining cloudy throughout the week – metals were hit the hardest.Their run is now quite compromised, with Gold and Silver both breaching their $4,400 and $70 psychological levels, respectively. If this continues, expect more pain ahead.The fate of Markets lies in the hands of Oil and the Strait of Hormuz.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 26, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today broadly continued the persistent rebound in the US Dollar, outperforming all its peers for the second consecutive session.Reactions to the top of the RSI range around 100.00 will have to be tracked closely – the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are struggling hard on the other hand – Watch for this as it seems to become a repetitive pattern in recent sessions.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will be focusing heavily on US Inflation expectations at 10:00 A.M, but potentially even more on communications from the Trump Administration regarding the War and the arrival of the large Marine fleet.For GBP traders, watch out for Retail Sales in the early UK morning!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar has been in the spotlight over the past two months, after remaining the pet peeve for FX since early 2025.With wartime, however, things can change fast and decisively: the Global Reserve has risen by 4.40% since its end-January lows in a blink.The new Fed Chair elect, Hawkish repricings, Petrodollars, and a general backing away from risky trades built up sudden demand, particularly at a time when Asset Managers were the most bearish on the USD in 14 years – and when the Market is stuck on one side of a trade, it often results in huge reversals.The Petrodollar trade, however, was the fuel for the currency Market throughout this month, and despite what seemed like a relative dissonance this week, as the tone sours again, the correlation is coming right back. The Petrodollar trade – Oil and US Dollar Correlation. Source: TradingView Indeed, after cautious optimism throughout this week's trading following the announcement of the US-Iran talks, it seems that Iran is still heavily inclined to maintain its strategic advantage over the Strait of Hormuz and its ballistic missile capabilities, two of the most contentious points in the indirect talks.But the real issue for Markets is that President Trump's tone has gradually grown more pessimistic, and this coincides with the fact that the huge Marine fleet is arriving in the Arabian Sea in less than a day – so where are these mere distraction tactics?Good question as War strategy is something that us common mortals cannot fully grasp – the Art of War, legendary treatise, can help in that sort (and is also a great read for traders).Deception tactics are common, and nobody can really understand what any side has in mind.What is sure, however, is that WTI is now rebounding toward $95, the higher bound of its momentum pivot, and above the psychological level, sentiment will sour even further. WTI (US) Oil 1H Chart – March 26, 2026. Source: TradingView At least, the US Dollar is enjoying this move, amid a more hesitant FX session. As further clarity is expected in the next 24 hours, consider current levels as indications of doubtful neutrality amid the ongoing war.Anything above in Oil and the Dollar implies a worsening in conditions and sentiment, which should drag into next week (+ Pessimistic)On the other hand, a return below $90 in WTI will be most welcome to investors (+ Optimistic)We will look at the Dollar Index, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD to assess the current state of the Market and whether more upside is warranted for the Dollar amid resurfacing doubts. Discover:Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish trend resumes below $4,620 as stagflation and oil strength weighFragile optimism stands in Equities, what's next? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookA better mood is soothing markets, but will it last? – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateDollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar attempted a corrective sequence as the US-Iran talks were announced, but with WTI not correcting much further, the currency still receives fundamental support.A few technical elements are developing in the Dollar Index which can help to find trades in major FX pairs:A short term, relatively flat bear-channel has developed and contained the Index movement. Traders may either use it as points of entry to long and short the US Dollar or as breakout signal – We are currently reaching its highs (99.90).Its lows are at around 98.65.A more Neutral 99.00 to 100.00 Range is holding for now – It is less responsive but more stable to watch the higher timeframe movement.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsMorning Spike 99.93 and Channel TopWeekly range highs 100.00100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance ZoneWar Highs 100.544Support LevelsIntraday micro support 99.3098.70 to 99.00 Support (Mini Range lows)98.00 2025 SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportAUD/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels AUD/USD 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD just broke its past month's 0.6970 to 0.7150 Major range to the downside, indicating high potential for a further correction.Fundamentals are changing for the Aussie dollar after a strong period after two consecutive hikes from the RBA, particularly after Australian CPI surprised to the downside.Failing to rebound above 0.6980 would hint at more bearish activity in the major pair.Levels of interest for AUD/USD:Resistance LevelsDec 2021 Lows 0.6970 to 0.70 Major Pivot (broken range holds above)Mini Resistance 4H MA 50 – 0.7020; Bullish above2023 Highs from 0.71 to 0.7150 Resistanc0.71867 March highsJune 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230Support Levels0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb Support0.69015 session lowsMicro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)October 2024 Mini-support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)EUR/USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, March 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is now turning bearish, breaking its 4H 50-period MA after a double top this week and crossing below its Pivot Zone (1.1540 to 1.1570).This hints at a test around at least the 1.1475 to 1.15 November Support, which could extend further to the 1.1410 War lows if the situation deteriorates.Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:Resistance LevelsImmediate resistance 1.1546Resistance 1.16250 to 1.163501.1650 to 1.17 March Resistance1.1750 mini-resistance and Channel TopResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Support Levels1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportWar lows 1.14101.1350 to 1.14 Support1.12 to 1.13 Next Main Support ZoneSafe Trades and keep a close eye on Middle East developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bearish trend intact despite rebound: Gold (XAU/USD) plunged 15% to a 4-month low before a 12% rebound, but the bounce is likely a dead cat bounce, with another bearish leg expected.Stagflation & oil strength driving downside risk: Rising WTI crude oil supports a stagflation backdrop, increasing interest rate pressures, and the opportunity cost of holding gold, reinforcing a negative correlation and downside bias.Key technical levels signal further weakness: Breach below $4,440 on Gold (XAU/USD) may trigger a move toward $4,099 and lower, while only a break above $4,620 would invalidate the bearish outlook. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold medium-term downtrend triggered as $4,960 support broke”, published on 19 March 2026.Since 19 March, Gold (XAU/USD) has staged the expected bearish impulsive down move sequence and plummeted by 15% to print a 4-month low of $4,099 on Monday, 23 March 2026, supported by the “stagflation fear” macro factor.Thereafter, the previous yellow metal staged a rebound of 12% to hit an intraday high of $4,603 on the backdrop of “TACO” optimism that the US White House Administration is looking to end the month-long US-Iran war, in turn, allowing passage to reopen in the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil flow choke point.Read more over here why” TACO” induced risk-on sentiment may fail to materialize this time: “Global markets swing on US–Iran War headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crude”.Right now, intermarket and technical analyses are pointing to another leg of bearish impulsive down move for Gold (XAU/USD), likely the end of the 12% corrective rebound, aka dead cat bounce from Monday’s low.A firmer WTI crude oil supports further weakness in Gold (XAU/USD) Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) & WTI crude oil futures indirect correlation as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The macro connection between WTI crude oil and Gold is stagflation risk.Higher oil prices via supply side shock (closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a lesser oil supply globally, in turn, also creating a second-order effect of lower aggregate demand as input costs of finalized goods and services get more expensive).Hence, stagflation is a deadly combination of higher prices and lower economic growth prospects in later stages. A challenging environment for central bankers as they cannot easily implement expansionary monetary policies to counter and anticipate the second-order demand destruction in a stagflation environment.Therefore, central banks are likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach, and some “inflation-fighting” central banks may turn cautiously hawkish and start to implement an interest rate hike cycle.Gold, being a non-interest income-bearing asset, will incur higher opportunity costs as interest rates rise globally, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the price actions of Gold.Since 17 February 2026, the movement of WTI crude oil futures has an indirect correlation with Gold (XAU/USD), and its 20-day rolling correlation coefficient stands at -0.5 at this time of writing (see Fig.1).The recent pull-back in the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) due to “TACO jaw bowing” has managed to find support at its rising 20-day moving average.West Texas Oil CFD’s medium-term uptrend phase remains intact, a clearance above $93.70 key near-term resistance may see a further push up to retest the $102.25 intermediate range resistance in the first step (see Fig. 2).Gold (XAU/USD) - End of corrective rebound, start of new bearish leg Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 26 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the $4,620 key short-term pivotal resistance on Gold (XAU/USD). A break below the $4,440 key near-term support (downside trigger level) may set off another bearish impulsive down move sequence to retest $4,167/4,099 before exposing the next supports at $4,007 and $3,936/3,886 (also a Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above $4,620 invalidate the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the $4,737/4,775 key medium-term pivotal resistance zone.Key elements to support the bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending trendline support.The recent 12% rebound seen in Gold (XAU/USD) from its 23 March 2026 low has stalled close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior impulsive down move from the 10 March 2025 high to 23 March 206 low. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 25 We are now concluding a second very passive trading session in Markets, with Participants still digesting the crazy past week and Monday developments.Sentiment remains more positive than it ever was since the beginning of the month, marking definite progress; However, like the French philosopher August Comte said, "everything is relative" (FYI, it actually isn't an Einstein quote).Markets can bloom on just the simple fact that the situation is not getting worse. Pricing Markets is a game of uncertainty, or lack thereof – And the confirming US-Iran discussions are what led to the overnight drop in Oil prices to ~$90 (from $95) in WTI.Once again, as long as WTI doesn't close above $100, the panic in Markets remains controlled.Global asset's inverse correlation with Crude prices remains the most important element in Markets, which allowed a positive session across Metals, Stocks, Bonds and Cryptos.Traders can expect the situation to remain confusing and see no concrete avancements until Friday evening, so timid rebounds may still prevail – but watch out for Thursday's which have emerged as seasonally tough on assets since early 2026. Read More:Fragile optimism stands in Equities, what's next? – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookA better mood is soothing markets, but will it last? – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateGlobal markets swing on US–Iran war headlines as risk-on rally falters – a cross analysis on S&P 500, US Dollar Index, AUD/USD, and WTI crudeStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 25, 2026 Except for Nvidia and Amazon outperforming other mega caps, defensive stocks seem to take the lead in the recent cautious Market rebound.Look for broad sector plays instead of individual stocks, which haven't shown any form of consistency since Monday – at least, as long as clouds remain.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 25, 2026 – Source: TradingView As you can see on the chart above, the inverse correlation between Oil and other assets remains the key to understand Market flows.But one asset class has emerged as the best performers, and understandably considering their extended moves on Monday – It's the Metals.WTI is rebounding towards $93 as we speak (Brent towards $100) so we are entering a area of risk ahead; Make sure to be flexible on your biases in case the situation changes in a flash.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Surprisingly, the US Dollar is remaining resilient despite the overnight correction in WTI, so FX traders will have to watch out for this decorrelation.The Aussie Dollar could find interesting plays ahead as it has now been trending lower in the past few session, with the RBA potentially moving towards a slower or ceased hike cycle ahead, particularly after the (small) CPI miss yesterday.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow will focus heavily on Central Bank speeches as no major data releases (except for the Jobless Claims) are to be expected.Traders will focus on the headlines and WTI instead.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK annual inflation held steady at 3% in February 2026, matching the previous month’s figure.The Bank of England (BoE) faces a policy dilemma as public inflation expectations soar amid war fears and manufacturing cost increases.The GBP/USD pair remained largely flat, trading in a "squeeze" between key moving averages, which suggests an imminent technical breakout is likely.Most Read: AUD/USD: The technical squeeze between 0.6980 and 0.7070Data from the ONS showed the UK's annual inflation rate held firm at 3% in February 2026, matching the previous month's figure and meeting market expectations. This consistency marks a continued period of relative stability, with inflation remaining at its lowest point since March 2025. While the headline figure remained unchanged, the underlying data revealed shifting price pressures across various sectors. Source: TradingEconomics Primary Drivers of Price GrowthThe most significant upward pressure came from the clothing and footwear sector, which saw prices climb by 0.9%. This represents the first increase in four months, largely driven by the seasonal arrival of new spring collections following the conclusion of January sales. Additionally, costs for housing and utilities experienced a slight acceleration, rising to 4.6% from 4.5% in January.Sectors Seeing a SlowdownConversely, several categories helped keep the headline rate in check:Transport: Prices slowed to 2.4% (down from 2.7%), primarily due to a drop in motor fuel costs. Petrol prices fell by 1.6 pence per litre this month, a sharp contrast to the 2.0 pence per litre increase seen during the same period last year.Essential Goods and Leisure: Food inflation eased to 3.3%, while recreation and culture slowed slightly to 2.5%.Hospitality and Services: Costs for restaurants and hotels cooled to 4%, and the closely watched services inflation rate ticked down to 4.3%.Overall, the data suggests a balancing act where rising retail and housing costs are being offset by cheaper fuel and a gradual cooling in service and food prices.Inflation expectations soar on Iran war fears The Bank of England (BoE) faces an increasingly complex policy environment as new data released on Tuesday revealed a surge in public inflation expectations. This shift in sentiment compounds an already difficult situation for policymakers, as manufacturers have reported their sharpest cost increases since 1992, pressures that are expected to be passed on to consumers in the near future.Household energy tariffs are currently capped, a scheduled price adjustment in July looms as a significant upcoming catalyst for further inflation. These mounting pressures have created a notable divide between market participants and economic forecasters regarding the BoE's next move.As of Tuesday per LSEG data, investors were pricing in nearly three quarter-point interest rate hikes before the end of the year to combat rising prices. This should keep GBP partially supported in the interim.However, any significant escalation to tensions in the Middle East could see the US Dollar surge once more and this could drag on cable.The initial market reaction Markets seemed to shrug off today's data with GBP/USD remaining largely flat after the release.Looking at the bigger picture technical outlook, GBP/USD is caught between long-term bearish momentum and a recent short-term recovery.The pair is currently trading in a "squeeze" between two critical Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). While the price has recovered from its mid-March lows, it remains capped by the 200-period SMA (dark blue) at 1.34567, which is currently acting as dynamic resistance.Conversely, the 100-period SMA (light blue) at 1.33560 has shifted from resistance to support, providing a floor for the recent price consolidation. The narrow range between these two averages suggests an imminent breakout is likely as the price searches for a definitive direction.The path of least resistance appears slightly tilted to the downside unless the bulls can clear and close above the 1.34500 – 1.35000 resistance cluster. A rejection at the 200 SMA could lead to a retest of the 1.3333 support.However, if the price holds above the 100 SMA, we may see further consolidation before a breakout attempt.GBP/USD H4 Chart, March 25, 2026 Source: TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 24 Today marked a much calmer session after Yesterday's wild swings, as the situation hasn't changed much since the repricing of a potentially closer end to the US-Iran War.Trump welcomed Markets with a positive surprise early Monday morning, announcing that the US had already begun discussing a deal with the remaining Iranian diplomats. The news sparked a wave of optimism among Investors. Still, despite its strength, the move did not extend further.Doubts remain as a gigantic US Marine convoy is approaching the Middle East and should reach its destination towards the end of the week. Are Markets going to see boots on the ground, or will a fair deal first materialize?The Israeli side expressed its discontent with the 15-point plan drafted by President Trump, as it would fall short of more hopeful concessions from the Islamic regime. The IRGC stated that they would want to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz and their Ballistic Missiles program. Looking at the damage done from those all across the Middle East, this certainly will be an area of debate (and would not reassure Iran's neighbors).Oil prices across the globe did not hold their previous session's lows, which helped the US dollar bounce higher, now forming a range above 99.00 (DXY) and containing risk sentiment. Cryptos actually rejected their previous relative strength, with BTC back below $70,000 ($69,000 is the real key level to watch).Keep a close eye on WTI, Brent, the US Dollar, and Stock Markets, as headlines don't help much in understanding the ongoing situation – except for fundamentally changing news. It could be more informative to search for breakout spots and execute them when decisive flows come in. Read More:Wall Street uncertain amid US-Iran (potential) talks – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookIs the war taking a new turn? – WTI Technical analysisThe Metals space is as confused as traders are – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 24, 2026 The initial wave of rallying that was seen after the strong US Manufacturing PMIs quickly got overshadowed by significant hits in both Microsoft and Google as the session went by.Still, Producer Manufacturing and Utilities held the Dow Jones right above unchanged while other Indexes struggled a bit more, particularly the Nasdaq.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today mostly saw some easing of the previous sessions' gains, with Oil rallying an extra 3.70% and sagging the ambience.Black Gold remains the product to watch to navigate these confusing Markets, but overall, expect consolidations across asset classes as Markets await for a clear outcome of the US-Iran diplomatic attempts.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX saw a much more contained action in today's calmer session, with the US Dollar forming a range and bouncing from its lows.99.68 on the Dollar Index is a significant level to watch: extending from there would mark a more volatile range in Major currencies, while rejecting the level puts should contain volatility further.However, expect a day full of surprises tomorrow between headlines and a few major events (particularly for the GBP which outperformed a lot in recent sessions.)A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow reserves many surprises, particularly for GBP traders who will welcome the release of their entire Inflation set.AUD traders should also remain cautious with the Australian CPI releasing this evening (18:40!)Those trading the Euro will listen closely to the Lagarde speech at 5:00 A.M. (ET), particularly as it may introduce future hikes.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil tumbled in the previous session as negotiations could be back on the tableNevertheless, realities of war indicate that the conflict isn't looking to ease like this, which could prevent positive sentiment.Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity In War, there are words and realities, propaganda and clearly defined facts – and the frontier between both is rarely so transparent.President Trump changed the Market trajectory after saying US-Iran negotiations could resume, a report initially denied by Iran but later confirmed as Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf travelled to Pakistan, where talks would reportedly occur.The fact that his diplomatic flight took place with US and Israeli approval proves that the US President wasn't just blowing steam – particularly given Al Arabiya reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly appointed Ayatollah, would also be open to talks.Nevertheless, the cloud remains over how deep and effective these talks would be regarding an official dropping of Iranian Ballistic Missiles and nuclear program, and, more importantly for immediate markets, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.A ceasefire deal is currently priced at around 44% for the end of April – to me, people are a bit pessimistic about the potential for the War to end sooner rather than later. US-Iran Ceasefire – Source: Polymarket. March 24, 2026 The reality, however, gets a bit different, with Gas infrastructure attacks, Saudi Arabia leaning to join the war and changing its stance, and the fleet of 4,500 Marines arriving in the Middle East towards the end of the week.The latter is the most concerning fact for Markets, leading to swift comparisons to Afghanistan and Iraq, which also hints at a much longer war.It will depend, of course, on how negotiations result: Will it result in free passage in the Strait of Hormuz? Will the Iranian population gain more power and freedom after the 5-week initial Wartime Period? Will attacks on both sides actually cease and lead to longer-term peace?All of these questions will have to find clear answers in order for Markets to get rid of the uncertainty cloud looming over investors since the beginning of March.As the situation should become clearer as this week continues, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to spot where potential action could take place and where to look if they fail. Read More:Markets Today: Oil surges as Iran denial sours market sentiment, Japan inflation near 4-year lows. FTSE eyes 10000 psychological levelUSD/CAD: Cautiously bullish, waiting for a decisive break above 1.3730Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA), TACO trade may not work, watch the 46,710 resistanceUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView With the intense volatility seen in the commodity since the beginning of the conflict, the daily chart can seen quite unclear.But traders need to look at what is standing out:Yesterday's drop tested the 20-Day Moving Average ($86.00) which remains the indicator dictating momentum – breaching it to the downside would imply further easing in conditions. Above, the action remains relatively bullish.Also, yesterday's move lower actually brought the action back right around the War Spike, implying that the action is at least much more balanced than it was in the past week.As the morning session continues, Bulls are attempting a rebound, hence, the levels to watch for momentum clearly remains the $93.00 to $95 zone (bullish above, neutral/bearish below).WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The 4H RSI is at least not pointing to a further rally from where things stand:Forming a top-looking shape, bull exhaustion at the Key Pivot area could forge at least a new range below $93. WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$92.70 Intraday ResistanceKey Momentum Pivot $93.00 to $95 (immediate resistance, bear below)$96.11 4H 50-period MA$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Support Levels$87 to $90 mini-SupportPast session lows $86.49$82.80 to $84 Key Support2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Past week spike $73.00 to $74.00$69 to $70 Main Support (If Ceasefire, should quickly head towards there)2025 lows $55.001H Chart and Action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The 1H timeframe really shows how yesterday tilted the scales towards towards a more balanced price action – even slightly bearish.Yesterday's announcement brought a wave of optimism which quickly found its lows; WTI has been rallying slowly since and forming a rising wedge formation (bearish).The 1H RSI is also turning lower from neutral, a sign of potential reversal.But all things considered, as long as bears can't reject the $92.70 intraday resistance, the action is more mixed than anything – breaking the intraday highs would give the upper hand to the bulls towards $95.Keep track of the headlines and the Wedge support.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Downtrend confirmed, TACO rally likely a trap: Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken below its 200-day moving average and fallen ~10% from its peak, with the recent “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) rebound likely a dead cat bounce rather than a sustainable reversal.Macro risks not fully priced by equities: The VIX/MOVE ratio signals that bond volatility is dominating, implying interest rate and stagflation risks remain underpriced in equities, leaving room for further downside.Key levels define next move: Immediate resistance sits at 46,710, while a break below 45,190 exposes further downside toward 44,975 and 44,505; failure to reclaim resistance keeps the bearish bias intact. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) on the brink of major bearish breakdown below 200-day moving average at 46,330”, published on 13 March 2026.The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have tumbled as expected and broken below the key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 18 March 2026.On Monday, 23 March 2026, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index extended its bearish move to print an intraday low of 45,213 seen during the London session. All in all, it has plummeted by 10% from its current all-time high printed on 10 February 2026 to Monday’s 23 March 2026 low, reinforced by a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve triggered by rising stagflation risk due to global oil supply shock arising from the US-Iran war.Risk-on behaviour roared back on Monday, 23 March 2026, after US President Trump sent a social media message that planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure will be paused for five days as both sides are engaged in a renewed negotiation process, despite Iran's repeated assertion that no direct negotiations have been held with the US.The TACO regime, the popular acronym, “Trump Always Chickens Out,” has its footprints in the global financial markets yesterday, where market participants remembered the ex-post “Liberation Day” events in late April 2025, where Trump walked back on his aggressive tariffs and paused the US’s trade war 2.0 with China, inducing a V-shaped recovery in global stock markets.Last year’s April “Liberation Day” TACO regime was a reaction to a sell-off in risk assets caused by “words” rather than actions, which are military strikes on stakeholders’ physical infrastructure in the current context, in turn, are likely to have lasting economic damages that cannot be easily reversed by a change of rhetoric from Trump.Hence, Monday’s TACO-induced rally in risk assets is likely a fake head, also known as a dead cat bounce.Intermarket analysis and technical analysis suggest that the medium-term V-shaped rally for the US stock market and global equities in general remains elusive now.The VIX/MOVE ratio has not reached an extreme level on the upside Fig. 1: VIX/MOVE ratio with S&P 500 medium-term trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the implied volatility of the S&P 500, a gauge for US equities. On the other hand, the ICE BofA MOVE Index (MOVE) measures the implied volatility of US Treasuries.Based on the latest price action of the VIX/MOVE ratio as of Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at the time of writing, it is trading below its 20-day moving average with a series of “lower highs and lower lows,” which suggests bond (US Treasuries) volatility is dominating, which implies interest rates uncertainty is the core driver at this juncture, and equity volatility is likely not fully pricing in such macro risk yet (may lead to more potential downside for US stock indices) (see Fig. 1).Also, the VIX/MOVE ratio has not crossed above its daily Bollinger Bands’ upper limit, where such movements in the past led to or coincided with significant bullish reversals in the S&P 500 on 20 November 2025, 16 October 2025, and 8 April 2025 (see Fig. 1).Let's now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspectiveDow Jones (DJIA) – Bearish reaction at 200-day moving average Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 46,710 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 45,237/190 may expose the next intermediate supports at 44,975/810 and 44,505 (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, a clearance above 46,710 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for an extension of the mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 47,338 and 47,923.Key elements to support the bearish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA) Yesterday’s rally stalled at the 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of the descending channel from the 26 February 2026 high.The hourly MACD trend indicator staged a bearish reaction at its horizontal resistance level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices surged by 4% after Iran denied engaging in de-escalation talks with the USThe US dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand and diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.Japan’s core inflation rate slipped to 1.6% in February, falling below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years.Technically, the FTSE 100 index is in a consolidation phase with a bearish alignmentMost Read: Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozEmerging Asian equities saw a volatile session on Tuesday, ultimately paring their early gains as investor anxiety persisted regarding the energy-related economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict.While market sentiment was initially bolstered by a recovery from previous losses, jitters remained high following Iran's denial of negotiations with the US aimed at ending the war.Consequently, major benchmarks across the region struggled to maintain their morning momentum, reflecting a cautious atmosphere despite the day's technical rebounds.Performance across individual markets was characterized by significant intraday retreats. South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged over 4% early on, settled closer to a 2.4% gain by the afternoon, while Taiwan’s shares cooled to a 0.8% increase after peaking at 2%.Similar patterns emerged in Singapore and Bangkok, where initial gains of 1.8% were whittled down to much slimmer margins. Despite these daily fluctuations, the broader monthly outlook remains grim; most regional benchmarks are deep in the red for the month, with losses ranging from 1% to 14%, leaving Indonesia and South Korea as some of the period's weakest performers.Japan inflation nears four-year lows Japan’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.3% in February, down from 1.5% in January and marking its lowest level since March 2022.This cooling trend was largely supported by food inflation, which remained near a 15-month low at 4.0% due to a significant slowdown in rice price increases.Additionally, price growth softened in the transport and clothing sectors, while education costs continued a steady decline of 5.6%.A major contributor to the disinflationary pressure was the energy sector, where government subsidies led to steeper drops in electricity (-8.0%) and gas (-5.1%) costs. While some categories like housing and healthcare remained stable, and others such as communications and recreation saw slight accelerations, the overall trend leaned downward.Notably, the core inflation rate slipped to 1.6%, falling below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years.On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) retreated by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of decline.European shares on course for lower open European equity markets were poised for a lower opening on Tuesday, erasing the gains achieved during the previous session.The optimistic sentiment that had briefly lifted global markets on Monday evaporated after Iran denied engaging in de-escalation talks with the United States. Despite earlier claims from President Donald Trump that productive negotiations were underway, which led him to postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, the regional conflict intensified as Iran continued strikes on US assets and Israel launched new attacks against both Iran and Lebanon.This resurgence of geopolitical tension has left investors cautious as they shift their focus to upcoming manufacturing data from across Europe. These reports will be critical for assessing how businesses are navigating the current climate of uncertainty and supply chain risks.Reflecting this shift toward risk aversion, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures fell by 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, during premarket trading.Commodity markets Global commodity markets remained volatile as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic shifts took center stage.Oil prices surged by 4%, with Brent futures climbing $4 to reach $103.94 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising $3.49 to settle at $91.62. This rebound followed a significant 10% drop on Monday after President Trump raised ceasefire hopes..However, prices rallied again after Iran denied that any such negotiations with the United States had taken place, reigniting fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf.In contrast, the precious metals market continued a downward trend, with gold prices falling more than 1% for a tenth consecutive session.Spot gold dropped 1.6% to $4,335.18 per ounce, hitting its lowest point since late November, while US gold futures saw a similar decline to $4,336.10. The slump in bullion was primarily driven by a strengthening US dollar, which increased the cost for international buyers, and diminishing expectations that the Federal Reserve would implement interest rate cuts in the near future.Gold prices have bounced ahead of the European open with the precious metal trading back above the $4400/oz handle at the time of writing.How did FX markets react? On Tuesday, the US dollar regained its footing as a shift toward investor caution bolstered the currency.The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers, rose 0.2% to 99.387, recovering from a previous dip to a two-week low. This performance puts the index on track for its strongest monthly gain since October, rising 1.8% this month.The dollar's resilience is largely fueled by safe-haven demand stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflict and a shift in market expectations, as traders have moved away from pricing in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut for this year. Analysis suggests the currency will likely remain supported until there are clear signs of international de-escalation.The dollar's strength weighed heavily on other major currencies, causing most to retreat from recent gains. Sterling eased 0.49% to $1.3388, and the euro slipped 0.3% to $1.1583, following brief rallies on Monday.Similarly, the Australian dollar dropped 0.6% from its six-week high to $0.6968, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.5% to $0.5832.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remained weak at 158.73 per dollar after February data showed core consumer inflation in Japan hitting 1.6%. Falling below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years, this cooling inflation complicates the central bank’s ability to justify further interest rate hikes.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:USD/CAD: Cautiously bullish, waiting for a decisive break above 1.3730Peace hopes? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 23Farewell, Rate Cuts – Markets Weekly OutlookEconomic calendar and final thoughts The European session will be a bit busier today with a host of PMI data releases from both the EU and the UK.Moving to the US session, the current US macroeconomic landscape is centered on two pivotal releases: the weekly ADP jobs report, which investors are monitoring for any signs of labor market softening, and the provisional PMI data for March. While it may be premature for the PMI figures to show a significant downturn, there is a growing consensus that the ongoing energy supply shock will eventually dampen business sentiment.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has hit a ceiling at the top of its nine-month range, stalling near the 100.25/50 mark. Its potential for further gains in the medium term appears limited unless there is another major spike in energy prices or a visible strain in financial liquidity such as a widening of cross-currency basis swaps, which occurred briefly yesterday as banks turned to the FX swap market for dollar funding.For now, the DXY is expected to remain within a tight 99.00–100.00 range, pending the next major development in the Middle East conflict. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, based on the 4-hour chart the index is currently navigating a period of significant bearish volatility.The index has transitioned from a steady uptrend in early 2026 to a sharp corrective phase.Bearish Structure: The chart shows a clear "lower high" and "lower low" pattern since late February, when the index retreated from its record high near 10,910.Moving Averages: The price is trading well below both the 50-period (Blue) and 200-period (Yellow) SMAs. Notably, the 50-SMA is sloping downward and has crossed below the 200-SMA, often referred to as a "Death Cross," signaling sustained bearish momentum.The index is currently fighting to gain acceptance above the psychologically significant 10,000 level, which has flipped from support to a "sticky" resistance zone.The recent candles show long "wick" rejections near the 9,816 level, indicating that buyers are stepping in at these lower valuations, likely driven by the FTSE's heavy weighting in energy giants (BP, Shell) which benefit from $100+ oil prices.The FTSE 100 is in a short-term bearish cycle within a broader high-volatility environment. The index is currently "oversold" on a sentiment basis but fundamentally pressured by rising UK inflation (3%) and the Bank of England's "hawkish hold" at 3.75%.The Bull Case: If the index can reclaim and close above 10,000, it may attempt a relief rally toward the 200-SMA near 10,450.The Bear Case: Failure to hold 9,816 likely triggers a retest of the 9,610 major support floor.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 24, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/CAD experienced high volatility after the US postponed military strikes on Iran, leading to a "risk-on" sentiment shift.The resulting weakness in the US Dollar was offset by a massive ~7.5% drop in WTI crude oil, which prevented the commodity-linked CAD from making gains and left the pair flat near 1.3715.The bias is cautiously bullish, requiring a decisive break above the key technical level of 1.3730The pair's movement will be governed by the 5-day US/Iran discussion window, further WTI price swings, and the potential for new US tariffs on EU goods.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozUSD/CAD had a wild ride today much like markets as a whole. Early in the session, the pair reached a fresh high of 1.3755, testing the peak set in January.Following a major geopolitical headline, the pair plummeted to an intraday low of 1.3683, testing critical technical support. By the afternoon, the pair settled into a flat, rotational pattern near 1.3715, as the market balanced a weaker US Dollar against falling oil prices.The Trump seesaw continues The defining driver was President Trump’s announcement to postpone planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. This triggered a "risk-on" sentiment shift, reducing the "war premium" and safe-haven demand that had been propping up the US Dollar.Crude oil (WTI) fell nearly 12% immediately following the news, eventually stabilizing near $90 (a 7.5% intraday drop). Since the Canadian Dollar is a commodity-linked currency, the massive drop in oil prices offset the US Dollar's weakness, preventing the CAD from making significant gains and leaving the pair "flat."Remarks from Fed officials provided a backdrop of caution. Governor Stephen Miran urged policy-making based on long-term trends rather than "short-term headlines," while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that oil shocks remain "stagflationary," suggesting rate cuts might not happen until late 2026.Factors affecting USD/CAD moving forward Moving forward, the pair will likely be influenced by several high-impact variables:The five-day "window" established by the US for discussions with Iran will keep markets on edge. Any breakdown in talks or a resumption of strike threats would likely spike the USD and oil prices simultaneously.As Canada is a major crude exporter, the CAD remains highly sensitive to WTI price swings. If oil recovers on supply concerns, the CAD could strengthen; if de-escalation continues, oil may fall further, weakening the Loonie.Markets are closely watching for "proof of inflation" from the Fed. A hawkish stance from the Fed compared to a potentially more dovish Bank of Canada (BoC) would provide long-term upward pressure on USD/CAD.Reports of potential 15–20% minimum tariffs on EU goods by the Trump administration suggest a continuing protectionist stance that could bolster the USD through trade-war risk appetite.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/CAD continues to test the 1.3730 key level.The daily chart shows USD/CAD is struggling to gain acceptance and record a daily candle close above the 1.3730 key level.If the pair does gain acceptance above this key level, there is a confluence area just beyond that where the 100-day (black) and 200-day (orange) MAs are converging near the 1.3800 handle.The 200-day MA at 1.3803 represents a "line in the sand", a break above this would signal a return to a long-term bullish bias.Significant long-term support remains at 1.3501.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 55.66, suggesting there is still room for further upside before the pair becomes overbought with momentum favoring bulls.The bias is cautiously bullish but lacks conviction. A decisive break and hold above 1.3730 would likely trigger a run toward the 1.3800 handle. Conversely, if the pair drops below the moving average cluster at 1.3650, expect a move back toward the 1.3580 support zone.USD/CAD Daily Chart, March 23, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 23 Recent trading sessions have been nothing short of wild roller coaster rides.Stock Markets reached new cycle lows on Friday and in the overnight Futures session, driven by fears of an escalation as the rhetoric seemed to intensify.But that wasn't without counting another Trump yo-yo, as he surprised Markets with the announcement of potential peace talks restarting, as the fourth week of the US-Iran conflict officially begins.On the announcement, a frantic wave of volatility unwinding shook Markets all over:Gold tumbled to $4,100, only to be saved by its 200-Day Moving Average (closing around $4,400). Stock Markets across the world exploded by 3% from their relative lows, Yields significantly eased, and, most importantly, Oil fell further.WTI broke the $90 psychological bar, and more strikingly, Brent fell back below $100 for the first time since March 13 – A significant easing in pricing compared to the slow grind higher that had been seen since.For now, this is only the beginning of some form of de-escalation, but it's not like peace is a done deal.With Iran denying any potential talks, optimism quickly faded. However, there are still signs that talks could be coming soon, with Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf travelling to Pakistan with US and Israeli approval.With about 4,500 US Marine troops currently traveling towards the Middle East, this could just be a distraction tactic, as mentioned here. Still, the reality is that we are now entering the fourth week, and both Israel and the US mentioned a 4 to 5-week operation.That would be a massive repricing for a deal, as Markets were getting increasingly pessimistic about the length of the conflict – The only truth is what Markets are saying:Keep a close eye on WTI, Brent, the US Dollar, and Stock Markets, which are losing some of their session strengths as the session concludes. Read More:Prudent optimism in Wall Street as US-Iran talks could confirm – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookCrazy swings all across Markets as US-Iran talks pick up: Gold grazes $4,000, WTI to $90 – Market CheckGold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 23, 2026 The heatmap did not change much since our afternoon Stock Market check, but there has been some (logical) profit-taking and deleveraging towards the close – Uncertainty is still high, but tomorrow should help to clarify whether the optimism is logical or not.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The session got wild after the Trump Truth Social post – Look at all the wild swings around Markets.Oil remains the guide for Market flows and sentiment. Those waiting to fill up their gas tanks at lower prices might still have to wait a bit, but that's definitely an improvement!Tomorrow's continuation will be necessary to confirm the risk-on turn for global assets.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 23, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX was all over the place today, with risk-off currencies initially leading along with the stronger GBP (with a hike repricing for next meeting with the Bank of England – Watch out if Brent falls off a cliff!)But risk-currencies then took the lead, supported by the tumble in the Dollar after the Trump post. GBP, AUD and NZD are the leaders of today's sessionA look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The calendar for the next 24 hours is packed.APAC traders will have to lean on the AUD and JPY for a few economic clues including Australian PMIs and Japan Inflation. But NZD traders will also have to log in for a Governor Breman speech at 21:00 (ET).Not even mentioning a flurry of Central Bank speeches, PMIs will release throughout most Major economies, and it seems to me that around this point of the cycle, Central Bankers will look more closely at economic clues to know whether they should actually hike or not – Expect these releases to move Markets!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.