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40% of Tokyo Trading Happens After Dark (And Here's Why It Matters)
While US
exchanges and brokers race to introduce 24-hour
trading, Japan
Exchange Group (JPX) has
quietly built the world's most successful extended trading program, with night
sessions now capturing more than 40% of total derivatives volume.Japan's After-Hours
Trading Captures 40% of Derivatives VolumeThe ratio
climbed from 39% in 2024, with night session volume reaching 168.5 million
contracts for the year. In November alone, the night session hit 44.5% of total
volume, suggesting the trend continues to accelerate.Japan's
achievement stands in sharp contrast to Interactive
Brokers. as Chairman Thomas Peterffy noted overnight trading made up just 2.2%
of volume in
May 2025.However, this figure is now much closer to that of the
fintech company eToro, which recently reported that one-third
of trades take place during extended trading hours.“Our mission has always been to open the global
markets and make trading accessible to everyone, everywhere,” Yossi Brandes, VP
of Execution Services at eToro, commented during the November’s launch. “We
will continue to add more assets and to expand our 24/5 offering to meet the
evolving needs of our global community.”Equity Trading Hits Record
Despite Derivatives PullbackJapan
Exchange Group's cash equity market posted strong gains in 2025, with Prime
Market trading value reaching 1,419.6 trillion yen, surpassing the previous
all-time high of 1,254.2 trillion yen set in 2024 and records from
2023. The 13.2% increase reflects continued strength in Japan's main stock
market segment.Domestic
ETFs generated 75.3 trillion yen in trading value, ranking second historically
but falling short of 2024's record of 77.2 trillion yen. The REIT market
produced 12.6 trillion yen in trading value, placing eighth on record compared
to fifth place the previous year.Total
derivatives volume declined to 418.8 million contracts in 2025, down 9.8% from
2024's record 464.2 million contracts. Trading value also slipped to 3,742
trillion yen from 4,156 trillion yen. Securities options bucked the trend with
3.4 million contracts, claiming the highest volume on record.Extended Hours Drive
Global CompetitivenessJapan's
night session runs from 4:30 PM to 5:30 AM Japan Standard Time, effectively
keeping the market open through European and US trading hours. The extended
window allows traders to respond to market moves, economic data and news from
Europe and America while Japan's cash markets remain closed.Foreign
investors dominate night session activity, though participation by Japanese
retail investors has grown with the rise of online brokers. The diverse mix of
investor types provides liquidity even during Asian nighttime hours, when most
regional markets go dark.The
achievement comes as US exchanges grapple with infrastructure challenges in
extending trading hours. Nasdaq's
recent filing to
add overnight sessions requires industry-wide coordination for clearing and
settlement services. The World
Federation of Exchanges has urged caution, recommending 22-hour or 23-hour trading weeks
rather than jumping to full continuous trading.December
2025 saw 31.4 million derivatives contracts change hands, with trading value
reaching 418 trillion yen, the second-highest December on record. Night session
activity totaled 11.3 million contracts, capturing 36.0% of December volume
compared to 34.3% in December 2024.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Silver Plunged, Partially Recovers as SocGen’s Quantitative Model Signals a “Bubble”
Société Générale’s quantitative model is signalling "bubble
conditions" in the silver market, but the bank’s analysts are less certain the
rally is driven only by speculation.Silver fell sharply yesterday (Monday) after
margin requirements were raised. The move marked its largest single-day
percentage drop since early February 2021. Prices recovered today and remain up
about 153% this year.Silver Rebounds Amid Mixed Global MarketsSociété Générale’s commodities research team, led by Mike
Haigh, said the rally looks less extreme when viewed on a logarithmic scale
rather than a standard linear chart. From that perspective, the move reflects
“the same compounding story” seen in silver over the past 25 years.Market conditions were mixed on Tuesday. European equities
opened slightly higher. US futures traded lower. Silver rebounded and recovered
part of the previous session’s losses.Rebound Continues Despite Bubble Framework WarningKathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said silver was
“up more than 2.5%” on the day. She said that “supply concerns limit the
downside for the precious metal.” Brooks added that the price had “clawed back
some of Monday’s losses” as tight physical supply supported the market.Despite the rebound, Société Générale said this year still
stands out. Using a log-periodic power law framework that flagged earlier
bubbles in 2010 and 2020, the bank said the current move also fits its
definition of a bubble. In that model, prices accelerate rapidly toward a
critical point. However, Haigh warned against relying only on quantitative
signals, saying structural changes linked to de-dollarization and geopolitical
risks are factors “a model cannot capture.”SocGen’s model says ‘yes, silver’s in a bubble’ but its analysts say ‘no’ it isn’t. https://t.co/RLOrM1MU6V— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) December 30, 2025China Export Curbs Threaten Silver SupplyThe bank also pointed to rising supply-side pressures. China
plans to impose export restrictions from January 1. The country accounts for
60% to 70% of global refined silver supply. Société Générale estimates exports
could fall by 30%. This could deepen an existing global deficit of about 200 to
230 million ounces.Possible regulatory action in the United States could add
further strain. If silver is classified as a national security concern, market
tightness could increase. Physical silver is already trading at premiums of 10%
to 15% in several major markets.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
How a Single Threat Actor Stole $2M in a Coinbase Support Impersonation Scheme
An on-chain investigation has detailed how a single threat actor allegedly stole more than $2 million from Coinbase users over the past year by impersonating customer support and manipulating victims into granting access to their accounts.
The case, published by an independent researcher, highlights a broader security challenge facing brokers, exchanges, and fintech platforms: while infrastructure security has improved, fraud increasingly targets the human layer.
The threat actor, operating under the alias “Haby,” reportedly relied on low-tech but highly effective social engineering tactics to gain trust before draining user funds.1/ Meet Haby (Havard), a Canadian threat actor who has stolen $2M+ via Coinbase support impersonation social engineering scams in the past year blowing the funds on rare social media usernames, bottle service, & gambling. pic.twitter.com/bBqrV7GmPi— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) December 29, 2025The Attack Vector: Social Engineering, Not Code
According to the investigation, the primary attack vector was not a software exploit but classic impersonation. Posing as a Coinbase support representative, the actor allegedly convinced users to authorize transactions or share account access under the guise of resolving urgent security issues.
Once funds were obtained, they were quickly laundered through a familiar on-chain playbook. Assets from multiple victims were consolidated, swapped across chains — including conversions from XRP to BTC via instant exchanges — and moved into personal wallets to obscure the transaction trail.A Familiar Pattern Across the Industry
While the case centers on Coinbase, the underlying mechanics are increasingly familiar across the brokerage industry. Brand impersonation, phishing, and lookalike infrastructure have become some of the most common entry points for fraud.
Earlier this year, Tamas Szabo, CEO of Pepperstone, warned that taking down typosquatted domains has become a near-daily task. Even after securing hundreds of domain variations, new lookalikes continue to appear fast enough to occupy entire fraud teams.
Typosquatting itself is not a scam, but it enables phishing and impersonation at scale. Brokers across the market report a sharp rise in brand abuse driven by AI-assisted cloning tools and the near-zero cost of registering new domains — turning what was once an occasional nuisance into a continuous operational threat.
For brokers, exchanges, and fintech platforms, the case reinforces a shifting reality: as technical defences harden, attackers are increasingly targeting psychology, authority, and brand trust. Security strategies that focus solely on infrastructure, without addressing impersonation and social engineering, risk leaving the most exposed surface unprotected.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
Poland Fines Two US Trading Education Firms $5.7M for Pyramid Schemes
Two
American companies that marketed themselves as online trading schools just got
slapped with multimillion-dollar penalties in Poland. Regulators found that
iGenius and International Markets Live weren't really selling education. They
were paying people to recruit new members, which is textbook pyramid scheme
territory.Poland Just Busted Two
“Trading Education” Companies for Running Pyramid SchemesThe Office
of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK) found that iGenius and
International Markets Live structured their business models around recruitment
rather than actual education sales. This crosses the line from legitimate
multi-level marketing into pyramid scheme territory, which is banned under
Polish and EU law.Both
companies marketed themselves as online trading schools, but investigators
found the real money came from signing up new members. The compensation
structures rewarded building recruitment networks more than teaching people to
trade.“Pyramid
schemes rarely call themselves investment systems anymore,” said Tomasz
Chróstny, president of UOKiK. “Their creators learned from past mistakes
and act smarter. They promise fast paths to financial freedom through internet
livestreams and training sessions.”Experts
have noted that trading
education often involves conflicts of interest that need better regulatory oversight,
particularly when compensation structures incentivize recruitment over
education quality.How the Schemes Actually
WorkediGenius
operated through igeniusglobal.com, charging between $100 and $1,500 for
monthly access to investment training materials. The company pushed users
toward its affiliate program, which required ongoing subscription payments to
earn commissions.The catch?
Your income depended mainly on how many other people you could convince to sign
up, not on the quality of education you provided or courses you sold.Promoters
flooded social media with luxury lifestyle posts and promises of millionaire
status. UOKiK says this reflects typical pyramid scheme tactics that emphasize
recruitment rewards over actual product value.International
Markets Live ran a similar operation through im.academy, recently rebranded as
iyovia.com. The company sold courses on forex, crypto and e-commerce. Members
paid upfront fees plus monthly subscriptions to become “Independent
Business Owners” who earned commissions mainly by building recruitment
networks.UOKiK's
investigation found both platforms structured compensation to reward bringing
in new members rather than selling education services. This violates Polish
consumer protection law, which bans promotional systems where material benefits
depend primarily on recruiting participants instead of moving products.Modern Pyramid Schemes
Hide Behind EducationInstead of
obvious investment pitches, today's schemes offer access to trading tools, AI
algorithms, secret strategies or guru mentorship. They host
professional-looking events that create an illusion of legitimacy.But
participants often discover the courses are low-quality materials available
online for a fraction of the price. The real emphasis falls on recruitment and
maintaining distribution structures. The biggest earnings come from building
your downline, not from any trading knowledge you gain.Poland has
taken consumer protection seriously across fintech platforms. The country
previously fined PayPal
$27.3 million for
ambiguous user agreements that made it hard for customers to understand
prohibited activities and penalties.Part of a Larger PatternThese cases
fit into a troubling trend in the trading education space. OmegaPro
defrauded victims of over $650 million by promising 300% returns through
“elite forex traders” while executives simply pocketed cryptocurrency
payments. The operation used lavish promotional events and even projected their
logo onto Dubai's Burj Khalifa.Belgium's
financial regulator previously warned about
International Markets Live, noting it specifically targeted younger people poorly educated about
trading risks. The regulatory action in Poland represents an escalation from
warnings to enforcement.Crypto MLM
schemes have cost victims hundreds of millions, with the US Federal Trade Commission settling
charges against promoters for $500,000. Even fake YouTube
trading gurus have run Ponzi schemes worth $18 million by using their channels
to lure investors.Going After Promoters TooUOKiK isn't
just targeting the companies. The agency currently has six cases running
against people who promoted iGenius and three against International Markets
Live advocates.Under
Polish law, promoting a pyramid scheme is just as illegal as running one. This
approach makes sense because these schemes only function when regular people
become recruitment agents.The
regulator is also investigating other suspected pyramid operations including BE
Poland, GrowUp Session, Eaconomy and Jifu. UOKiK has issued public warnings
about multiple platforms and notified law enforcement agencies about its
findings.“We
regularly track, expose and eliminate this type of activity,” Chróstny
said. “But nothing replaces consumer vigilance and common sense.”The
decision against iGenius remains subject to appeal. International Markets
Live's ruling became final after the company stopped its prohibited practices
in May 2025.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
XRP Price Prediction 2026: Can XRP Hit $8?
XRP price
prediction 2026 presents conflicting signals as the digital asset trades at
$1.85 on December 30, 2025, caught between bullish institutional forecasts and
bearish technical patterns. Standard
Chartered projects XRP could surge 330% to $8 by end-2026, driven by
sustained ETF inflows exceeding $1.15 billion and regulatory clarity following
the SEC settlement. However, my
technical analysis reveals a death cross formation targeting declines toward
$1.25 before a potential Q2 2026 reversal, creating uncertainty about
whether XRP can escape its current consolidation near 2025 lows.The token
remains down 11.84% from one year ago and approximately 47% below its 2025 peak
near $3.50, despite 30 consecutive days of XRP ETF inflows signaling strong
institutional interest. This divergence between price action and investor
sentiment makes 2026 a pivotal year for XRP holders evaluating long-term price
targets and whether XRP can participate in the next crypto bull run.In this article, I answer the question of what XRP
price predictions look like for 2026 and how high the XRP price could rise.Current XRP Market Status
and Technical SetupXRP is
trading at $1.85 per token with a market capitalization of $111.79 billion and
24-hour trading volume of $2.22 billion. The cryptocurrency has experienced
significant volatility throughout December, declining from $2.20 highs in late
November to test support in the $1.80-$1.90 range. Recent
price action shows XRP down 0.91% from yesterday's $1.865 level, continuing a
pattern of lower highs that defines the current bearish structure and
underperformance versus Bitcoin and Ethereum.Technical Indicators and
Support LevelsTechnical
indicators paint a concerning picture for short-term XRP sentiment. The token
has formed a death cross pattern where the 50-day exponential
moving average crossed below the 200-day EMA, historically a bearish signal
indicating extended downside momentum. XRP price
is moving within a descending channel with clear resistance at $1.93, which the
token failed to break during recent rallies, reinforcing selling pressure and
bearish momentum.Key
short-term technical points for XRP price analysis include:Bearish momentum: MACD turning lower and
RSI below 50, signaling renewed selling pressure.Immediate support level: $1.82 area, with
failure here opening the path toward $1.60 and then $1.25.Resistance levels: $1.93 and $2.00
psychological zone where XRP recorded repeated rejections.Trend structure: XRP price may remain in a
downward-sloping channel until buying volume returns.Based on my
technical analysis of the XRP/USDT chart, the next logical target sits at $1.25,
representing October 2025 flash crash lows where stronger accumulation may
emerge. Only after realizing this final bottom does the technical setup suggest
cleansing of weak hands and foundation for stronger institutional support that
could push XRP price back toward $3.50+ levels seen in 2025.How XRP Compares to
Bitcoin and Ethereum?The broader
crypto market context shows Bitcoin trading near $87,000 and Ethereum around
$2,900, with both major cryptocurrencies experiencing similar Q4 volatility.
XRP's price action reflects macro conditions affecting the crypto market, but
the token's underperformance relative to bitcoin and Ethereum highlights
specific concerns about XRP sentiment and long-term holders' conviction.Bitcoin price remains closer to
its all-time high, supported by ETF inflows and large market cap.Ethereum trades in a
consolidating range but benefits from tokenization and ETF narratives.XRP is a cryptocurrency with
strong branding and cross-border use case, yet its price trajectory shows
lagging performance versus Bitcoin and Ethereum in late 2025.This
comparison matters for institutional investors considering whether to buy XRP
versus other digital assets as part of a diversified crypto portfolio.Institutional XRP Price
Targets for 2026Standard
Chartered has emerged as the most bullish institutional voice on XRP price
prediction 2026, with Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital
assets research, projecting
the token will reach $8.00 by end-2026. This target
represents a potential 330% increase from current levels around $1.86 and
reflects structural changes in XRP's regulatory environment and institutional
adoption rather than short-term speculative hype.How Standard Chartered
Models the XRP Rally?Kendrick's
methodology centers on quantitative modeling of ETF flows and supply dynamics.
The analyst calculates that if XRP ETFs maintain their current pace and attract
$10 billion in total inflows by late 2026, this capital would need to purchase
approximately 4-5 billion tokens at average prices around $2.20. Removing
this quantity from circulation, combined with the existing 45% decline in
exchange balances from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion tokens during the initial
ETF launch period, would create substantial supply-side pressure supporting
higher price levels.Standard
Chartered's multi-year trajectory for xrp price may be summarized as follows:This
long-term price outlook assumes sustained institutional investors' interest in
XRP as a digital asset and continued progress in Ripple Labs' cross-border
payment partnerships.The
Motley Fool offers
a more cautious institutional view, suggesting $3.00 as a realistic
2026 target, implying approximately 58% upside from current levels.
Analysts there acknowledge the positive tailwinds from regulatory clarity and
ETF approvals but underline that XRP's price has declined year-to-date despite
the Trump administration's supportive stance towards the crypto industry.Consensus Forecasts and
Market-Implied ProbabilitiesConsensus
analyst forecasts across multiple platforms show a range of $2.71 to
$8.60 for XRP price in 2026, with an average prediction around $3.90.
Several Wall Street analysts cited by crypto market outlets project XRP could
trade between $3.40 and $5.00, marking a 40-70% gain from mid-2025
levels. These mid-range forecasts rely heavily on:Continued ETF inflows
supporting xrp price.Improved XRP sentiment among
institutional investors.XRP's market cap closing the
gap with larger cryptocurrencies.Options-based
analysis from Jeff Anderson, Head of Asia at STS Digital, provides
market-implied probabilities instead of directional forecasts. “Based on
current market conditions, including observed volatility and skew, we can
estimate the probability that each asset will trade above specific price
targets by 31 December 2026,” he commented for FinanceMagnates.com“XRP,
trading near $1.85, shows a 25pct probability of finishing above $2.40 and a
10pct probability of exceeding $3.90 and finally,” he forecasted.These
probabilities help investors calibrate expectations around price levels without
assuming the crypto market will necessarily enter a new bull run.Changelly's
algorithmic model forecasts an average XRP price of $5.12 in 2026 with
a maximum around $5.79, while CoinCodex projects $2.75 by mid-2026,
reflecting more moderate expectations for XRP's price trajectory. Together,
these estimates reinforce a wide but data-backed range for long-term price
scenarios.Crypto Analyst and
Influencer XRP Price PredictionsThe crypto
analyst community offers more aggressive long-term price forecasts, leaning on
technical indicators, Elliott Wave structures, and historical volatility to
project XRP's potential performance in 2026 and even 2030.EGRAG Crypto: Bull Run
Structure and Fibonacci TargetsEGRAG
Crypto maintains
a bullish long-term XRP price prediction based on Elliott Wave theory.
According to this analysis, XRP is completing a Wave 4 correction and
preparing for an explosive Wave 5 move that could redefine its
price level in the crypto market. Using Fibonacci extensions, EGRAG
identifies resistance targets at:$4.78
$5.515
$6.755
$18.25
Up to $27 in an extreme bull
marketThe analyst
compares the current consolidation to XRP's 2017 setup, when xrp price traded
sideways for six months before surging to its all-time high of $3.84 in January
2018. EGRAG's base case assumes that a break above $3.40-4.00 would confirm a
new bullish structure and open the path to $10 and beyond, although such
targets are more relevant for longer horizons like 2030 rather than a single
year.Dark Defender: Wave 5
Target at $5.85Dark
Defender provides
a complementary Elliott Wave view, suggesting that XRP completed Wave 4 at
$1.88 in late 2025 and is now poised
to move toward $5.85 dollar in Wave 5. The analyst
highlights:XRP's 3-day RSI has entered
oversold territory historically associated with strong rebounds.Corrective phases in XRP's
price action are considered normal within a larger bullish cycle.Ignoring short-term fear and
focusing on long-term price structure may benefit xrp holders.Dark
Defender links this uptrend potential to sustained ETF inflows and improving
XRP sentiment as regulatory risks fade, but acknowledges that timing remains
uncertain and dependent on broader crypto market conditions.AI Models on XRP Price
OutlookAI-based
forecasts add another layer to the long-term price debate. When asked to model
XRP price under a scenario of 10 billion dollar in ETF inflows by
late 2026:ChatGPT projects a range
of $6-8, treating profit-taking and volatility as natural
brakes on a parabolic move.Claude AI forecasts a more
ambitious $8-14 range, viewing ETF demand as a "catalytic
force" that could trigger self-reinforcing bull markets amid rising
trading volume and improving XRP sentiment.Key Catalysts Driving XRP
Price Outlook for 2026Several
critical catalysts will determine whether XRP price prediction scenarios skew
toward the conservative or bullish end of the spectrum. These include ETF
flows, the SEC case outcome, cross-border utility, and macro conditions
affecting the crypto market.Filip
Dzięciołowski, Editor-in-Chief at Cryps.pl, notes that XRP currently trades at the lowest
levels of 2025 in a narrow consolidation zone and that nothing suggests a rapid
trend change in the coming weeks or months.“For now,
there are no clear signs that this situation will change in the coming weeks or
even months,” he says. “Over the longer term, however, and looking ahead to the
whole of 2026, a return toward this year’s high, above $3.50, is assumed.”ETF Inflows, Sec Case, and
Institutional SupportXRP ETFs
are at the center of the current narrative around whether XRP could outperform
in 2026. Since their launch in November 2025, these products have:Attracted over $1.15
billion in combined inflows.Recorded 30 consecutive
trading sessions of net inflows with no outflows.Contributed to a 45%
reduction in exchange balances, from 3.95 to 2.6 billion XRP.This
pattern signals strong institutional support and interest in XRP as a regulated
investment product, changing the way many investors approach xrp profit
calculator tools and long-term price planning."XRP,
so far, remains mostly an ETP- and ETF-flow story,” Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at
Bitget, commented for FinanceMagnates.com. “Much depends on the persistence of
these inflows and on whether institutional interest in Ripple's payments
ecosystem translates into something more meaningful. There's a kind of tension
between short-term fear and long-term positioning in crypto, with ETF inflows
staying steady and exchange balances continuing to fall, exactly what I
associate with mid-cycle consolidation." The SEC
case resolution represents another foundational catalyst. The
Securities and Exchange Commission dropped its appeal against Ripple, and the
company agreed to a $50 million settlement without admitting wrongdoing. Judge
Analisa Torres clarified that XRP is not considered financial security when
sold on exchanges to retail investors, reducing legal uncertainty that had
weighed on xrp price for years.This
regulatory clarity has encouraged institutional investors previously cautious
about the lawsuit against Ripple, improving market sentiment and creating room
for ETFs and other products to gain traction in the U.S crypto market.Cross-Border Payments,
SWIFT Ambitions, and Real-World UtilityXRP's
long-term price outlook and predictions for XRP in 2030 depend heavily on
real-world utility as a cross-border settlement token. Ripple CEO Brad
Garlinghouse has stated that XRP could capture 14% of SWIFT's global
transaction volume within five years, which would represent more than
2.8 trillion dollar in annual flows routed through the XRP Ledger.While this
goal remains ambitious, even partial realization would significantly increase
demand for XRP as a bridge currency. However, skeptics highlight several
challenges:Many banks use RippleNet's
messaging stack without adopting XRP for liquidity.Traditional financial
institutions move slowly in replacing established infrastructure.Stablecoins and CBDCs compete
with XRP for cross-border transaction roles.For XRP to
justify the upper end of price forecasts, Ripple Labs must convert more
messaging-only clients into full On-Demand Liquidity users, directly linking
network adoption to demand for the token itself.Macro, Crypto Market
Sentiment, and Four-Year CyclesMacroeconomic
conditions will influence whether 2026 feels like consolidation or a new bull
phase for crypto. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts toward
the 3.00-3.25% range could support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by
lowering the opportunity cost of holding volatile digital assets like XRP.
However, unexpected inflation spikes or recession risks could shift
institutional positioning away from crypto, impacting XRP price and trading
volume across exchanges.The
traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is also being questioned
as institutional ETFs change market structure. If the cycle moderates, crypto
market participants might see fewer extreme sell-offs, allowing long-term
holders of XRP to benefit from more stable bull markets. If the cycle persists,
however, 2026 could become a consolidation year where XRP trades sideways or
corrects, delaying more substantial rallies until the next cycle leg.Risk Factors and Technical
Challenges for XRPWhile the
bullish narrative around XRP price prediction 2026 is compelling, several key
risk factors may prevent XRP from reaching high-end targets like $8 or even $10.Structural Weaknesses:
Volume, Utility, and CompetitionThe most
important structural risks include:Declining transaction volume: Several analyses
highlight that XRP's on-chain activity and transaction volume have
decreased over the last two years, raising questions about organic growth.Utility gap: Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin
and XRP’s price action do not yet reflect broad adoption as a primary
cross-border settlement layer.Competitive landscape: Other cryptocurrencies,
including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and newer blockchain networks, continue to
compete for institutional support and cross-border use cases.If XRP's
real-world utility stagnates while the broader crypto space innovates, the
price trajectory may lag even in a broader bull run.Short-Term Bearish
Momentum and UnderperformanceFrom my
technical analysis perspective, XRP faces several immediate challenges that
weigh on XRP sentiment:Death
cross pattern and descending channel define a bearish structure.Key support at $1.82 is under
pressure, with sellers controlling near-term price action.The target around $1.25 implies
additional downside from current levels before long-term support emerges.These
conditions suggest that, even if long-term price forecasts remain bullish, XRP
price may see further underperformance against Bitcoin and Ethereum in early
2026.Market Positioning and
Investment Considerations for XRP HoldersDespite
numerous risks, XRP continues to attract attention from long-term holders,
institutional investors, and traders using XRP profit calculator tools to model
various scenarios for 2025, 2026, and 2030.What Long-Term Holders
Should WatchKey metrics
to monitor as part of a data-driven XRP investment thesis include:Weekly ETF inflows and
outflows: Sustained
net inflows are crucial for maintaining bullish structure.Ripple quarterly reports: On-Demand Liquidity
volumes, cross-border corridors, and new RippleNet partnerships.On-chain indicators: XRP recorded transaction
counts, volatility, and trends in long-term holders versus short-term
traders.Regulatory headlines: Any changes in U.S or
international policy affecting classification of digital assets.Contrarian
investors may be attracted by the current Fear & Greed Index levels around
24-25 (Extreme Fear), which historically have preceded rebounds in the broader
crypto market. However, aligning entries with technical support levels such as $1.25-1.50
could improve risk-reward profiles compared with buying at current prices
purely based on optimistic forecasts.XRP Price Scenarios: 3, 6,
and 8 DollarSummarizing
the main 2026 price scenarios for XRP:Conservative case ($3): Assumes modest ETF
success and limited utility gains; supported by The Motley Fool.Base case ($3.90-5.12): Reflects consensus
forecasts and Changelly's model, assuming steady ETF inflows and moderate
adoption growth.Bullish case ($8): Based on Standard
Chartered's projection that XRP could hit 8 dollar by end-2026 if ETF
inflows reach 10 billion dollar and institutional support continues.Each
scenario implies different risk profiles and requires close monitoring of
trading volume, institutional positioning, and macro conditions in the crypto
market.Before
you leave, take a look at my earlier cryptocurrency analyses, and if you find
my work useful, consider following me on X.
I have also included a helpful FAQ section below. [#highlighted-links#]FAQ: XRP Price Predictions
and Investment QuestionsWhat is the XRP Price
Prediction for 2026?XRP price
prediction for 2026 ranges from conservative institutional forecasts of 3
dollar to bullish targets of 8 dollar, with consensus averaging around 3.90
dollar. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick expects 8 dollar driven by ETF
flows and regulatory clarity, while technical analysis suggests a possible drop
toward 1.25 dollar before a recovery in Q2 2026.How Much Will XRP Be in
2026?XRP could
trade between 2.40 and 8 dollar by the end of 2026, with options data from Jeff
Anderson indicating a 25% probability of finishing above 2.40 dollar and a 10%
probability of exceeding 3.90 dollar [provided quotes]. Consensus forecasts
around 3.90 dollar balance bullish long-term price expectations with caution
about the token's current bearish momentum and regulatory history.Should I Buy XRP in 2026?Whether to
buy XRP depends on individual risk tolerance, time horizon, and conviction in
Ripple's ability to convert regulatory clarity into real-world adoption. ETF
inflows, supportive court rulings in the SEC case, and institutional support
provide solid arguments for long-term investors, but the current technical
downtrend and potential move toward 1.25 dollar suggest waiting for clearer
bullish confirmation or more attractive price levels may be prudent for some
market participants. This article does not constitute financial advice.What Are XRP's Key
Catalysts for 2026?Key
catalysts that could shape XRP's price outlook include:Sustained ETF inflows reaching
5-10 billion dollar in assets under management.Ripple converting more banking
partners to On-Demand Liquidity users that require XRP.Additional regulatory clarity
and crypto-friendly legislation in the U.S.Macro conditions supporting
risk assets, especially if bitcoin and ethereum enter a new bull market.Why Is XRP Price Declining
in December 2025?XRP price
is declining in December 2025 due to a combination of broad crypto market
weakness, bearish technical indicators such as the death cross, and
profit-taking after the 2024-2025 rally. Despite strong institutional support
via ETFs, short-term selling pressure and underperformance relative to bitcoin
and ethereum have weighed on xrp sentiment and market-wide evaluations of its
near-term potential.Will XRP Reach 10 Dollar
in 2026?Reaching 10
dollar in 2026 remains a low-probability scenario in institutional models,
although EGRAG Crypto's Elliott Wave analysis allows for such levels in a
full-blown bull run. Achieving 10 dollar would imply a market cap approaching
600 billion dollar, requiring XRP to capture a much larger share of the crypto
market and cross-border payment flows than currently observed. Most forecasts
see 10 dollar as a potential longer-term target beyond 2026 rather than a
central scenario for the next 12 months.What Is XRP's All-Time
High Price?XRP's
all-time high is 3.84 dollar, reached in January 2018 at the peak of a previous
crypto bull run. In early 2025, XRP approached this level again when it surged
to around 3.50 dollar following Donald Trump's election victory and subsequent
favorable regulatory developments, but it has since retreated to 1.85 dollar.How Do XRP ETFs Affect
Token Price?XRP ETFs
affect token price by removing significant supply from exchanges as providers
accumulate XRP to back shares, contributing to a 45% drop in exchange balances.
With over 1.15 billion dollar in ETF inflows and 30 consecutive days without
outflows, these structures have become central to any serious XRP price
prediction for 2026 and beyond. If inflows continue and reach 10 billion dollar
as Standard Chartered models, xrp price may see structural upward pressure
regardless of short-term volatility.How Has the Price of XRP
Changed Since 2024 and What Is Its Current Value?The price
of xrp has experienced dramatic swings since 2024, driven largely by the legal
battle with the SEC and broader crypto industry volatility. At the time of
writing, XRP trades at 1.87 dollar with a current value reflecting 49% decline
from its 2025 peak of 3.66 dollar. Throughout 2024, XRP tested multiple key
price points between 0.50 and 0.70 dollar as the legal battle outcome remained
uncertain, keeping institutional investors cautious. The token
surged 580% between November 2024 and January 2025 following regulatory
clarity, reaching critical price points near 3.50 dollar before the recent
sell-off brought it back toward 1.80-1.90 dollar support levels. This
volatility pattern demonstrates how regulatory developments continue to drive
major price of xrp movements across the crypto industry, with the SEC case
resolution in 2025 marking an inflection point that allowed institutional
support through ETFs to emerge despite subsequent bearish technical pressure.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
EC Markets Marks 2025 with Global Expansion, Record Trading Volumes, and Strategic Partnerships
EC Markets closed 2025 with record trading activity, global expansion across key financial hubs, and a series of high-profile partnerships, reinforcing its position among the leading brokers in the global trading industry.During the year, the company recorded an average monthly trading volume of $1.027 trillion, ranking among the top three brokers globally by trading volume, according to the Finance Magnates Quarterly Intelligence Report. Its client base grew to more than 118,000 active traders worldwide, supported by 10 offices, seven regulatory licenses, and a workforce of over 1,500 employees.Throughout 2025, the broker expanded its international presence across Dubai, Limassol, London, Sydney, Malaysia, Port Louis, Mexico City, and Auckland, while maintaining visibility at major industry events including The Forex Expo, iFX, and the Finance Magnates London and South African Summits (fmls:25 & fmas:25).A key milestone during the year was becoming an Official Partner of Liverpool Football Club, alongside the renewal of its partnership with world snooker champion Judd Trump. The company also hosted a Dubai Celebrity Golf Day in early December, bringing together senior leadership and sporting figures, with proceeds supporting the LFC Foundation and the UK Teenage Cancer Trust, reflecting the broker’s ongoing commitment to giving back.Commenting on the year, Matthew Smith, Group Chairman and CEO of EC Markets, said:“2025 was a year where execution and alignment mattered more than ever. What we achieved reflects a collective effort across the business, strengthening our global presence, maintaining regulatory discipline, and delivering consistently for clients. As we move into 2026, our focus remains on building sustainably and earning long-term trust.”The broker’s performance was further recognised with more than 17 international awards in 2025, including Broker of the Year, Best Trading Conditions, Best Regulated FX Broker, and Best Retail CFDs Broker.Further information, including the 2025 Year-in-Review video, is available here.
This article was written by FM Contributors at www.financemagnates.com.
70% of Prediction Market Traders Are Capital Donors, Matching CFD Losses
Blockchain
analyst defioasis.eth released data showing that roughly 70% of Polymarket's
1.7 million trading addresses have recorded realized losses, mirroring the loss
rates long documented among retail CFD traders in traditional markets.The
analysis examined realized profit and loss across Polymarket's entire
trading history through December 28, covering 1,733,785 unique addresses. Only
30% of participants have managed to lock in profits, while the remaining 70%
sit in negative territory.Extreme Profit
Concentration Echoes Traditional MarketsThe data
reveals a winner-takes-all dynamic virtually identical to CFD trading
platforms. Fewer than 0.04% of all Polymarket addresses captured over 70% of
total realized profits, accumulating roughly 3.7 billion dollars in gains. This
concentration ratio closely parallels what regulators observe in leveraged
retail trading, where European brokers report 62% to 82% of accounts losing
money.Most
profitable Polymarket users earned modest amounts. Addresses with realized
profits between zero and 1,000 dollars represent 24.56% of all participants but
captured just 0.86% of total gains. Earning more than 1,000 dollars requires
breaking into the top 4.9% of all addresses.The model
appears to be proving itself. Polymarket is currently eyeing a valuation of about
$15 billion, and together with Kalshi, its largest competitor, the two
platforms generated nearly
$7.5 billion in combined trading volume in October alone, driven mainly by
sports-related contracts (or, to put it plainly, betting).These
figures are likely to keep rising. Polymarket has received the green light to
return to the U.S. after its platform was blocked in 2022 and has just
launched an application dedicated specifically to the U.S. market.Small Losses Common, But
Catastrophic Failures ExistOver 1.1
million addresses, representing 63.5% of all participants, recorded realized
losses between zero and 1,000 dollars. However, 149 addresses each lost more
than 1 million dollars, demonstrating that while most users lose small amounts,
the platform can deliver severe losses to unlucky or unsophisticated
participants.The
methodology tracks total sale proceeds plus redemption amounts minus purchase
costs, excluding unrealized gains or losses on open positions. Defioasis.eth
acknowledged limitations in the approach, noting that "the actual data can
only be used as reference, pure on-chain data calculations have certain
limitations, and may not have filtered out some official unlabeled
contracts."When
questioned about the 3.7 billion dollar profit figure by other analysts,
defioasis.eth defended the calculation by comparing it to similar platforms:
"Actually it's not exaggerated at all, Pump Fun's Net PnL at that
historical retrospective point was 3.8 billion."Markets Change, Retail
Losses Don'tThe
similarity between Polymarket's 70% loss rate and the 70-80% failure rates
mandated for disclosure by ESMA-regulated CFD brokers highlights a persistent
reality: regardless
of asset class or market structure, retail participants consistently subsidize
more sophisticated players.Whether
trading currency pairs, stocks via CFDs, or political outcomes on blockchain
prediction markets, roughly seven in ten retail accounts end up losing money.
We can see that also in the booming
retail prop trading industry."Whether
it's prediction markets or Meme, there seems to be no difference for us retail
investors,” added the analys.He also
highlighted that Polymarket has become another venue where information
asymmetry and automated market makers dominate, with one commenter describing
it as "a new meat grinder" where "cognitive gaps, information
gaps, insider manipulation make it normal for newcomers to find it difficult to
profit."The analyst
agreed with this assessment, noting that automated trading bots and
sophisticated market makers turn casual participation into an expensive
education.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Tokenized Stocks Reach All-Time High $1.2 B While ESMA Flags “Risk of Misunderstanding”
Demand for tokenized equities has accelerated since their
mainstream debut earlier this year. The trend points to a new asset class
gaining traction beyond Bitcoin and stablecoins. Data from Token Terminal shows
the combined market capitalization of tokenized stocks has reached a record
$1.2 billion, with growth strongest in September and December.Amid
this growth, Regulators have flagged risks tied to the expanding market.
The European Securities and Markets Authority warned
that tokenized stocks may create investor confusion, as they often track
share prices without granting shareholder rights. ESMA executive director Natasha Cazenave said there is a
“risk of misunderstanding” around ownership. The watchdog added most tokenized
equity projects remain small and illiquid, despite interest in 24/7 trading and
fractional ownership.Tokenized Stocks Mirror 2020 Stablecoins Growth“Tokenized stocks today are like stablecoins in 2020,” Token
Terminal said. The comparison reflects how early the market remains.
Stablecoins were still limited in scale in 2020. They have since grown into a
sector valued at about $300 billion, Cointelegraph reported.Industry participants have also compared tokenized equities
to the early decentralized finance boom of 2020. They cite faster settlement,
continuous trading, and fractional ownership as key features. These
characteristics are seen as factors that could support the movement of more
global equities onchain.? BIG: Tokenized stocks market cap hits all-time high of $1.2 billion, per Token Terminal. pic.twitter.com/crHvph9A3T— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) December 30, 2025Securitize Plans Compliant Onchain Equity TradingMarket activity spiked in September following Backed
Finance’s launch of its xStocks suite on Ethereum, which introduced around 60
tokenized equities through partnerships with Kraken and Bybit. Momentum
continued into December, with Securitize announcing plans for compliant onchain
trading that would enable direct share ownership.Ondo, Coinbase Expand Tokenized Stock OfferingsOther firms are preparing similar offerings. Ondo
Finance plans to roll out tokenized US stocks and exchange-traded funds on
Solana in early 2026.Coinbase is moving in the same direction. This month, it
announced plans to offer stock trading as part of its effort to become an
“everything exchange.”Institutional interest has also emerged. Nasdaq disclosed
that it has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to offer
tokenized stocks on its platform. The exchange said tokenization is a top
strategic priority.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
PU Prime Honoured as Best Copy Trading Platform at ProFX Awards Dubai 2025, Empowering Traders Worldwide
PU Prime, a global multi-licensed online brokerage, is proud to announce its achievement at the ProFX Awards Dubai 2025. Hosted by ProFX Media, PU Prime was recognised as the Best Copy Trading Platform. By 2025, PU Prime has been recognised with multiple “Best Copy Trading Platform” awards across various regions and countries by leading FX expos and media organisations, including Best Copy Trading Platform Canada 2025, Best Copy Trading Platform India 2025, and Best Copy Trading Platform UAE 2025.Held on 19 December at Le Meridien, Dubai, the recognition from the ProFX Awards Dubai 2025 marks an exciting milestone and a strong close to the year for PU Prime. Initially, the copy trading initiative was designed to bridge the gap for beginner traders who found market analysis daunting. By allowing them to mirror seasoned professionals (signal providers), PU Prime lowered the barrier to entry while enabling experienced traders to earn commissions from their followers.PU Prime noted that earning the Best Copy Trading Platform title at the ProFX Awards Dubai 2025 is a proud milestone that underscores its global momentum. As it heads into the new year, the team remains dedicated to evolving its social trading ecosystem, ensuring that both beginners and professionals have access to the cutting-edge tools they need to succeed in an ever-changing market.Looking ahead, PU Prime remains focused on expanding high-quality trading services and enriching trader education, staying true to the brand’s “More Than Trading” vision by empowering every user to succeed in the evolving financial landscape.About PU PrimeFounded in 2015, PU Prime is a leading global fintech company and trusted CFD broker. Today, it offers regulated financial products across forex, commodities, indices, shares, and bonds. Operating in over 190 countries with more than 40 million app downloads, PU Prime provides innovative trading platforms and an integrated copy trading feature, empowering traders worldwide to achieve financial success with confidence.
This article was written by FM Contributors at www.financemagnates.com.
Perpetual Futures Move $1.2 Trillion a Month as Crypto Spot Markets Lag
In 2025, perpetual futures shifted from a specialist
tool for aggressive traders into a central mechanism for how risk, leverage,
and even traditional assets move across decentralized finance. According to Coinbase, the lines between
traditional markets and decentralized finance are blurring fast. As crypto derivatives mature, perpetual futures – once
the playground of speculative traders – are emerging as a core infrastructure
layer within decentralized finance. Decentralized Volumes Surge Amid Slow Spot TrendsDecentralized exchanges (DEXs) processed more than
US$1.2 trillion in perpetual futures each month by the end of 2025, with
Hyperliquid maintaining a commanding presence among traders.Analysts point to a shift in trader behavior: in a
year with no traditional altcoin rally, investors turned to perps to extract
higher returns from flat spot markets.The ability to control large positions with minimal
capital renewed interest in leveraged trading, pushing speculative exposure to
nearly 10% of crypto’s overall leverage ratio before a sharp correction in
October brought it back down to 4%.Beyond high-stakes speculation, perpetual futures are
increasingly being integrated into the foundation of decentralized finance. By linking with lending protocols, liquidity pools,
and on-chain risk systems, these derivatives are becoming composable – designed
to work as functional layers within complex digital financial structures.You may also like: Russia’s First Crypto-Backed Loan Brings Bitcoin Into Formal BankingSuch integration allows traders and protocols alike to
manage risk more dynamically. For example, a decentralized lending protocol
might use perps to hedge exposure to asset volatility or even generate yield
through structured strategies. Equity Perps: The Next Step for Retail TradersAnother trend gaining traction is the rise of
equity-based perpetual futures. As tokenized versions of major stocks like
those in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq appear on decentralized platforms, they
offer retail investors a way to trade global equities using crypto-like
leverage and around-the-clock access.The move toward perpetual contracts on tokenized equities may bridge traditional and digital markets, enabling fractional, 24/7
trading that bypasses standard market hours.This expanded accessibility could attract millions of
global retail traders who seek exposure to traditional stocks but value the
efficiency and freedom of crypto markets. In doing so, equity perps might
redefine how and when markets operate.The evolution of perpetual futures reflects a broader
reconfiguration of the crypto financial landscape. They’re no longer confined
to speculative corners of exchanges but are forming new connective tissue
between decentralized and traditional trading systems.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Russia’s First Crypto-Backed Loan Brings Bitcoin Into Formal Banking
Sberbank has extended Russia’s first crypto-backed
loan to Intelion Data, one of the country’s largest Bitcoin miners. The pilot
deal uses Bitcoin mined by Intelion as collateral, positioning digital assets
as working capital rather than passive holdings on a balance sheet.Using Rutoken to Secure Digital CollateralSberbank reportedly used its in-house digital custody product,
Rutoken, to safeguard the Bitcoin collateral through the loan period. According
to the bank, the pilot transaction demonstrates how crypto-backed lending could
operate within regulated frameworks without compromising asset security.“Digital currency market regulation is only emerging
in Russia, and we are ready to collaborate with the Central Bank to develop
relevant regulatory measures and create infrastructure for launching crypto
services,” Anatoly Popov, deputy chairman of the Executive Board at Sberbank,
said in a statement translated to English.However, the bank did not disclose the size of the loan but indicated that the structure is designed to be used well beyond the mining sector. It positioned the product as suitable for any company holding cryptocurrencies and framed the arrangement as a practical way to connect blockchain-based assets with traditional finance.Sberbank’s Expanding Crypto StrategyIntelion Data described the loan
a significant milestone for Russia’s crypto and mining ecosystem. Sberbank has recently deepened its involvement in
digital assets beyond custody solutions. The lender is experimenting with
decentralized finance instruments and supports the gradual legalization
of cryptocurrencies in Russia. Sberbank confirmed in 2022 that it would withdraw from European markets after mounting pressure from Western sanctions made its
operations untenable. The bank had built a substantial presence in Europe
through subsidiaries and branches in countries including Germany, Austria,
Croatia and Hungary, but those units began to face exceptional cash outflows as
sanctions took hold.At the same time, a directive from the Central Bank of
Russia prevented the parent from supplying liquidity support to its European
subsidiaries, further undermining their position. Despite the strain, Sberbank stressed at the time that
it held sufficient capital to meet all obligations to depositors, even as it
moved to wind down its European exposure.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Trust Wallet Reviews Claims After $7M Extension Hack as Industry Flags “Structural Tension”
Trust Wallet has entered a verification phase following a
security breach involving its browser extension on Christmas Day. The incident
affected desktop users and led to losses of about $7 million. Binance
co-founder Changpeng Zhao said the losses will be fully covered.Jamie Elkaleh, chief marketing officer at Bitget Wallet,
said the incident highlights a “structural tension” in self-custodial wallet
security. He said that while users control their private keys, “critical
dependencies, such as centralized app store distribution and software updates,
remain potential points of failure.” Elkaleh added that a “compromised update mechanism can still
expose large user bases to risk,” even without direct access to private keys.Verification Begins as Claims Outpace WalletsToday (Monday), Trust Wallet CEO Eowyn Chen said the company had
identified 2,596 wallet addresses connected to the compromised extension. At
the same time, it received close to 5,000 reimbursement claims, suggesting that
a portion may be false or duplicated. Chen wrote that “accurate verification of
wallet ownership is critical to ensure funds are returned to the right people.”
She added that the team is “working diligently to verify claims,” using
multiple data points to separate legitimate victims from malicious actors.The update marks a shift in the response. The focus has
moved from estimating losses to managing the operational challenge of
compensation while limiting abuse. Chen said the company is prioritizing
accuracy over speed and plans to share further details as the investigation
continues.Trust Wallet(@TrustWallet) has been exploited, with hundreds of users affected and over $6.77M stolen so far.The hacker has already sent ~$4.25M to ChangeNOW, FixedFloat, KuCoin, and HTX.CZ(@cz_binance) has stated that Trust Wallet will fully cover the losses.Check hacker… pic.twitter.com/6xjyOaxUEK— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) December 26, 2025Industry Calls for Verifiable Wallet SoftwareAccording to Elkaleh, addressing this gap will likely
require “more verifiable and resilient software delivery models,” including
reproducible builds and stronger integrity checks. He also pointed to the need
for “reduced reliance on centralized distribution channels,” alongside
techniques that can limit the impact of interface-level compromises. Over time,
he said improving alignment between off-chain software delivery and on-chain
security principles will be key to building trust in self-custodial systems.Attack Shows “Source Code Familiarity”Cybersecurity firm SlowMist reported that the malicious
extension also exported users’ personal information. Its co-founder Yu Xiam
said the attacker “appeared to have prepared the exploit weeks in advance and
showed deep familiarity with the source code.” Onchain investigator ZachXBT
earlier estimated that hundreds of users were affected. Some industry observers
said the ability to submit a malicious extension update suggested access beyond
a typical external attack, according to Cointelegraph.Trust Wallet has confirmed the breach but has not confirmed
any insider involvement. Chen said a broader forensic investigation is
underway. She wrote that “this process is ongoing today,” and that while some
data is still being finalized, the team already has “strong working hypotheses
for a portion of the cases.”
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
BGC Group Reaffirms Q4 Outlook Following 31% Jump in Third‑Quarter Revenue
BGC Group remains confident as 2025 draws to a close,
holding to its previous earnings guidance despite a volatile market
environment. In an update released on Monday, BGC Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:
BGC) reaffirmed its outlook for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. The firm expects revenue to come in
between $720 million and $770 million, matching the range it initially
projected earlier in the year.Earnings Forecast UnchangedThe company also maintained its pre-tax adjusted
earnings forecast, guiding for $152.5 million to $167.5 million for the final
quarter of 2025. The reaffirmation suggests confidence in consistent trading
activity and cost discipline across its operations. For comparison, BGC generated $572.3 million in
revenue and $129.5 million in pre-tax adjusted earnings during the same period
in 2024. BGC Group delivered strong results for third quarter
this year. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, BGC reported
total revenues of $736.8 million, up 31.3 percent from the prior year’s $561
million.The company’s electronic trading business, Fenics,
brought in $160 million, a 12.7 percent increase from last year. Regional
revenue performance was robust, rising 37.4 percent in EMEA, 28.1 percent in
the Americas, and 17.4 percent in APAC.“We delivered another outstanding quarter, with record
third quarter revenues of $737 million, up 31 percent from $561 million a year
ago,” the company shared. “Revenues of $628 million, excluding OTC, was also a record, driven by
growth across every asset class and geography. Our ability to deliver strong
growth in a mixed macro environment demonstrates the strength and scale of our
global platform.”Double-Digit Earnings GrowthBGC achieved pre-tax Adjusted Earnings of $155.1
million, a 22.4 percent jump, while post-tax Adjusted Earnings climbed 11.5
percent to $141.1 million. This translated to post-tax Adjusted Earnings per
share of $0.29, reinforcing steady progress in profitability. Adjusted EBITDA
came in at $167.6 million, an increase of 10.7 percent year over year.Meanwhile, BGC launched an electronic platform for U.S. dollar swaps this year, aiming to boost speed and transparency for institutional
investors. Dubbed Opti Match, the venue is offered via BGC Derivatives Markets,
L.P. and is designed to streamline access to key interest rate products.Institutional clients can use the platform directly as
Swap Execution Facility participants or access it indirectly through BGC
or GFI brokers. At launch, Opti Match will support several interest rate
instruments, including SOFR‑linked trades and CME/LCH basis switches.The group also acquired global macro analytics provider Macro Hive in a move that strengthens its rates and FX franchise by integrating AI technologies into its brokerage platform.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Why Cyprus’ 8% Crypto Tax Comes with a Fly in the Ointment
Cyprus is set to introduce a new, dedicated tax regime for digital assets, offering brokers a competitive 8% flat tax on crypto-related profits. However, this favorable rate comes as part of a much larger overhaul that may result in dramatically higher regulatory burdens and operational costs.
The proposed tax reform, expected to take effect from January 1, 2026, is a strategic trade-off. Cyprus is positioning itself as a low-tax crypto hub within the EU, but the price of entry is full transparency and a significant increase in compliance overhead.
The New "Cyprus Deal" for Brokers
The reform creates a mixed picture for crypto brokers operating on the island. For a 100% crypto brokerage, the new 8% rate represents a significant tax reduction compared to the previous 12.5% corporate tax. On one hand, this advantage is designed to attract crypto-native firms and allow brokers to offer more competitive pricing.
On the other hand, the tax benefit comes with potentially higher costs and limited loss offsetting. The tax break is offset by two major factors. First, the general corporate tax rate is rising from 12.5% to 15%, impacting any non-crypto income. Second, and more critically, crypto trading losses are ring-fenced and can only be offset against crypto gains, rather than the firm’s broader taxable income or carried forward to future years. It means that a single unprofitable year cannot be used to offset taxes in a profitable one—a significant drawback in a volatile market.
The Real Cost: A Surge in Regulatory Burden
The true cost for brokers comes from the simultaneous implementation of two major EU directives: MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) and DAC8 (Directive on Administrative Cooperation).
MiCA requires all crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) to obtain a full license, a process involving capital requirements of up to €150,000 and a complex governance structure. Existing firms must be fully compliant by July 2026.
Meanwhile, DAC8 mandates that all brokers automatically report detailed client transaction data, balances, and residency information to EU tax authorities. It takes effect from January 2025 and reduces client anonymity on regulated platforms.
The operational impact of DAC8 could be substantial. Brokers will need to upgrade their reporting infrastructure, expand KYC and AML processes, and adapt internal systems to meet detailed, ongoing disclosure requirements. Industry estimates suggest this could lift administrative and compliance costs by 30–50%.
Why Licensed Brokers Are Staying Silent
Notably, major crypto platforms already licensed in Cyprus, including Revolut, Tickmill, Kraken, and Bybit, have so far refrained from publicly commenting on the proposed tax regime. Finance Magnates reached out to several licensed brokers for comment, but had not received responses by the time of publication.
Market participants point to the fact that the legislation has not yet been fully enacted and that the final text, including secondary regulations, has not been published. As a result, many firms prefer to assess the framework privately with tax advisors rather than make forward-looking public statements.
In the absence of official commentary, online discussions around the proposal suggest a broadly mixed but pragmatic reaction. Some market participants view the 8% flat rate as a meaningful improvement over both Cyprus’s current framework and typical EU tax levels, particularly after years of regulatory ambiguity.
Others, however, caution that the higher 15% corporate tax on non-crypto income could undermine Cyprus’ overall appeal and potentially push some firms to consider alternative jurisdictions within the region.
A Strategic Choice
Despite the heavy new compliance load, Cyprus's 8% rate remains highly competitive within the EU, where countries like France (30%) and Italy (26%) have much higher capital gains taxes on crypto. By embedding MiCA definitions directly into domestic tax law, Cyprus also reduces legal ambiguity around what constitutes a crypto-asset — an issue that has complicated tax treatment in several other EU jurisdictions.
However, the shift is clear: Cyprus is no longer a "light-touch" jurisdiction. It is making a deliberate play for serious, well-capitalized crypto businesses that are willing to trade regulatory scrutiny for a favorable tax rate and passported access to the entire EU market. For brokers, the Cyprus deal is now a strategic choice between a low tax bill and a very high compliance bill.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
Gold Retreats After Record High, Silver Falls but Gains in Tokenized Markets
Gold pulled back from record highs today (Monday), with
silver also retreating after recent gains, as investors booked profits and
easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand.Spot gold fell 1.7% to $4,455.34 per ounce, after reaching a
record high of $4,550 on Friday. U.S. gold futures for February delivery lost
1.2%, settling at $4,500.30 per ounce. Spot silver slipped 4.6% to $75.47 per
ounce, after briefly trading at $83.62.Silver Volatility Rises Amid Margin HikesSilver markets are entering a critical week following the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s second margin increase in two weeks. The initial
margin for March 2026 silver futures rose to about $25,000 from $20,000, adding
pressure on leveraged traders. Analysts said this could reduce leverage and
trigger volatility, while low inventories and strong industrial demand continue
to support prices.Tokenized Silver Trading Sees Rapid GrowthInterest in silver is also moving into tokenized markets.
Data from RWA.xyz shows monthly transfer volumes for its tokenized version of
the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) increased more than twelvefold, alongside a 300%
rise in holders and a 40% gain in net asset value. CME Group announced an increase in margin requirements for silver futures. Starting December 29, 2025, the initial margin for March 2026 silver contracts will rise to $25,000. This move comes amid rising silver prices and growing concern about market manipulation. CME has… pic.twitter.com/ij4MkVKw4v— Santa Surfing (@SantaSurfing) December 28, 2025Tokenized silver allows
investors, including non-U.S. participants, to trade digital tokens
representing SLV around the clock, reflecting growing demand for
blockchain-based exposure.Silver has gained 181% year-to-date, outpacing gold, which
has risen 72% in 2025. Traders are anticipating further U.S. rate cuts next
year, while analysts said gold and silver remain sensitive to economic and
policy developments.Just sold all my real estate & BTC and and my businesses - I’m all in on gold & silver. pic.twitter.com/dEXiDg9Ma4— Grant Cardone (@GrantCardone) December 28, 2025Gold Hits Records Amid Fed ExpectationsJust before Christmas, gold prices rose sharply, reaching a
new record. Spot gold traded around $4,420 per ounce, up more than 1.7% on the
day. Analysts attributed the gains to expectations of further U.S. Federal
Reserve rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks.Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at XTB, said, “The gold
price hit a fresh record high, as geopolitical concerns heat up and hopes grow
that the Fed can continue to cut rates next year.” Some analysts noted that
thin liquidity during the holiday period could increase short-term volatility,
but longer-term forecasts remain broadly positive, supported by central bank
demand and macroeconomic factors.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
Trading 212 Reverses Interface Redesign After Users Warn They'll Switch Brokers: "It's Like You're Intentionally Trying To Anger Us"
Trading 212
will reverse its controversial portfolio redesign next month after users
flooded the company's forums and social media with complaints about the new
interface, marking a rare retreat for the UK-based broker.Trading 212 Scraps
Portfolio Redesign After User RevoltThe company
rolled out the redesign around mid-December, introducing a bubble-style layout
that sparked immediate backlash from retail investors who said the changes
buried critical information and made the app harder to navigate. Within 10
days, Trading 212 announced it would restore the previous version."We
appreciate your feedback on the portfolio redesign and understand the concerns
it raised," KrisG, a Trading 212 representative, wrote in the company's
community forum on December 24. "Based on what we've heard, we'll be
rolling out an update in January that brings back the previous layout."Reddit user Vendor_BBMC posted a screenshot from the mobile app showing what the “Portfolio” tab looks like after the changes. Unfortunately, FinanceMagnates.com did not find a screenshot of the earlier version for comparison.In the meantime, the company’s former COO launched a fractional shares and commission-free trading app for retail traders, combining Investing.one and MyInsider.app.Bubble Design Drew Fire
Over Screen SpaceThe new
design replaced a straightforward list view with rounded cards and pull-up
menus that users said wasted screen space and required extra taps to access
basic information. Portfolio holdings were hidden behind a search bar instead
of appearing immediately when users opened the app."Why
is information split into multiple bubble-style windows?" wrote user
Minmax77 on December 14 in a post that received 65 likes. "The borders,
padding, and background gaps take up more room than the actual content. Instead
of a clean, compact layout, everything is spread out into small 'islands' of
information surrounded by empty space."Users
singled out specific functionality losses. The portfolio value graph removed
axis numbers, pending orders no longer showed cash allocation amounts, and the
interface stopped respecting user color theme preferences. One user created an
account solely to complain, choosing the username
"IHateTheNewLayout.""The
app feels completely unserious. Who creates charts without a Y-axis?"
wrote user NakamuraRTS on December 16. "People are using your app to
deploy their life savings. Do better in 2026."Traders Threaten Platform
SwitchMultiple
users said the changes prompted them to explore rival brokers, a threat that
appears to have caught Trading 212's attention. The complaints spread beyond
the company's official forum to Reddit and app store reviews, where users
posted negative feedback threads."This
new designe is terrible. It is really dealbreaker for me and Iam thinking about
switching to another broker," user Anibohovi wrote on December 15.User Vladel captured the frustration on December 17, writing: "Honestly I can't imagine anyone thinking this was a good idea. Why are 212 intentionally making it harder to find information? Now going from home to portfolio I can't now instantly see all the information I could before, why would you do that?? It's like you're intentionally trying to anger your users."Another
user who goes by mbaat said Trading 212 support initially dismissed the
concerns. "I have contacted support yesterday and they said that this was
a business decision and that there are no plans of reverting the changes,"
mbaat wrote on December 18. Days later, the company announced the reversal.Company Acknowledges
Design MisstepsTrading 212
team members began responding to complaints on December 16, acknowledging the
problems. "We're
actively reviewing all the feedback we've received and have already identified
a few areas that need improvement based on your comments," wrote Bogi.H,
another company representative.By December
19, the company pushed minor fixes, including restoring the ability to tap
pending orders to open instrument pages. But the changes didn't satisfy users
demanding a complete rollback.The
reversal announcement on December 24 drew relief from most users, though some
defended the modern aesthetic. User saifali argued Trading 212 should offer
both layouts. calling them "Modern" and "Legacy" versions -
to allow continued innovation while preserving user choice."There
will always be a group of people who will not like the new design, that's just
how it is, but design evolves and so does the taste of people," saifali
wrote on December 25.Pattern Of Interface
ComplaintsThe
December redesign wasn't Trading 212's first brush with user interface
backlash. Earlier in 2025, the company made changes to its home screen that
moved watchlists into pull-up tabs, drawing similar complaints about reduced
functionality.Several
users called for Trading 212 to establish a beta testing program with community
members before rolling out major interface changes. "Push
out changes first to a beta branch with limited participation and collect
feedback, make the necessary improvements before rolling this out to
everyone," user cosmic90 suggested on December 17.Trading 212
hasn't specified exactly when in January the rollback will occur or whether it
will implement user testing for future updates.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
XTB Sponsors Two Largest MMA Federations in Europe: Adds OKTAGON After KSW
XTB has
signed a partnership with OKTAGON, a European mixed martial arts organization,
making the Polish online broker (WSE: XTB) the largest MMA
sponsor in the region. The deal builds on XTB's existing title sponsorship of
Poland's KSW promotion.XTB Becomes Largest MMA
Sponsor in Europe with OKTAGON PartnershipThe
partnership gives XTB its most extensive presence yet in European MMA. For the
first time in OKTAGON's history, a sponsor's logo will appear on all fighter
jerseys. XTB also gets premium placement during live events, broadcasts, and
digital content across OKTAGON's footprint in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and
Germany."We
naturally support organizations that, like us, have no complexes and constantly
raise the bar," said Omar Arnaout, XTB's CEO. "OKTAGON has proven it
has enormous potential and could soon become one of the leading players on the
global MMA scene."XTB is not
the only broker investing in promotion through MMA and boxing. In 2024,
Pepperstone became a sponsor of UFC
Asia, while a year earlier FXPro added Aleksandr
Chizov to its roster of brand ambassadors. More recently, boxing
legend Mike Tyson became the face of NAGA Group.OKTAGON says
it has dominated its home markets in recent years and has broken European
attendance records with events in Germany. The promotion is planning its most
ambitious year yet in 2026, with 18 events scheduled across multiple countries."This
partnership is more than a logo in the cage," said Pavol Neruda, OKTAGON's
co-founder. "It's a connection between two worlds that share the same way
of thinking."Building on Combat Sports
StrategyXTB has
been methodically building its presence in combat sports since partnering
with UFC star Conor McGregor in September 2022. The broker later added former UFC champions
Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jiří Procházka as brand ambassadors.The
company's sponsorship portfolio has also included football legend Iker Casillas
as a brand ambassador since February 2023, along with past deals featuring José Mourinho
and current global ambassador Zlatan
Ibrahimović. XTB has also had visibility in boxing, tennis, and Formula 1.The
strategy is clearly paying off. According to the latest data from the Polish
market, four
out of five newly registered brokerage accounts in Poland were opened with XTB.With both
the OKTAGON partnership and its title sponsorship of KSW, Poland's largest MMA
federation, XTB now holds the biggest combined MMA sponsorship footprint in
Europe.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
After IG Group and Robinhood, Mirae Asset Eyes Crypto Exchange Purchase in $70-140M Deal
Mirae Asset
Financial Group is in discussions to acquire a majority stake in Korbit, South
Korea's fourth-largest cryptocurrency exchange, according to industry sources
familiar with the matter. The potential deal could value the combined stake at
between 100-140 billion won ($70-98 million).Mirae Asset Eyes Crypto
Exchange Korbit in $70-140M DealThe
Seoul-based financial conglomerate is negotiating to purchase a 60.5 percent
stake from NXC, Korbit's largest shareholder, and a 31.5 percent stake from SK
Planet. The combined 92 percent ownership would give Mirae Asset control of an
exchange that has struggled to compete in a market where Upbit and Bithumb
command over 95 percent of trading volume.Mirae Asset
has built its business around traditional financial services since the late
1990s and has not previously entered the cryptocurrency sector.[#highlighted-links#] The
potential acquisition would be led by Mirae Asset Consulting, the group's real
estate and consulting arm that sits atop a corporate structure spanning
securities, asset management, venture capital, life insurance and pension
operations."A
potential bid for Korbit is in line with Park's vision for digital asset-based
financial innovation," an industry source told The Korea Times.
"Korbit has historically had a limited presence, but Mirae Asset Financial
Group's decades of expertise could allow it to pursue a differentiated
strategy.”Traditional Finance Moves
Into CryptoThe move
follows a pattern of traditional financial firms acquiring crypto platforms
throughout 2025. IG Group
purchased Australian crypto exchange Independent Reserve for £87 million in
September, paying
5x the platform's last fiscal year revenue to enter the Asia-Pacific crypto
market. The deal gave the London-based CFD broker access to Independent
Reserve's 129,400 funded accounts holding A$1.7 billion in assets.Robinhood
completed its acquisition of Bitstamp in June, gaining over 50 licenses and customers across
the EU, UK, US, and Asia. That transaction marked Robinhood's entry into
institutional crypto services.The trend
has also moved in reverse. Crypto.com
acquired CySEC-regulated broker Allnew Investments in May to obtain a MiFID license,
planning to offer CFDs on FX and other assets across Europe by the third
quarter.Industry
observers note that global firms including BlackRock, Coinbase, Visa and
Mastercard are competing for position in the digital asset ecosystem, making
acquisitions like Korbit potentially valuable despite its limited market share.The South
Korean crypto market remains highly concentrated, with Upbit and Bithumb
dominating while Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX split the remaining single-digit
market share. Whether Mirae Asset's traditional finance expertise can change
that dynamic remains to be seen.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Bitcoin Price Climbs Past $90,000, XRP Follows, as Traders Eye January Recovery
Bitcoin (BTC)
price broke above $90,000 early Monday, 29 December 2025, picking up momentum
as traders positioned for a potential new year rally after the cryptocurrency
sat out Wall Street's recent record-setting run.The largest
digital asset by market value rose as much as 3.1% to $90,200 in Singapore
trading before pulling back slightly to $89,615, according to Bloomberg data.
Other major cryptocurrencies followed suit, with Ethereum climbing 4% past
$3,000, while XRP and Solana each gained 3% or more.Bitcoin
largely ignored the S&P 500's push to record highs in the days before
Christmas, still nursing wounds from a brutal October selloff that wiped out
$19 billion in leveraged positions. That liquidation event left traders
gun-shy, with few willing to rebuild significant positions. Until now.In this
article, I examine why Bitcoin and XRP are rising and provide a technical
analysis of the XRP/USDT and BTC/USDT charts, drawing on my more than a decade
of experience as an analyst and investor.Why Bitcoin Is Going Up
Today?Funding Rates Signal
Shifting SentimentMonday's
move "appears somewhat driven by short term retail traders taking on
growing positions in futures," said Sebastian Bea, Chief Investment
Officer at ReserveOne Inc., a crypto treasury firm.The Bitcoin
funding rate – which measures the cost of holding long positions in perpetual
futures – reached its highest point since October 18, according to CryptoQuant
data. That signals growing appetite for bullish bets, though open interest in
futures remains "well below recent peaks that coincided with bitcoin's
recent highs in October," Bea noted. The token hit an all-time high of
$126,251 on October 6.Joel
Kruger, crypto strategist at LMAX, suggested the quiet conditions may be
deceptive. "Bitcoin, in particular, has already repriced meaningfully
higher this year and may now be absorbing supply as longer-term holders remain
patient," he said. "The market's ability to hold elevated levels
despite quiet conditions arguably reinforces the view that the marginal buyer
remains intact, even if currently inactive."Please also check my previous cryptocurrency analyses:Geopolitical Tensions
Support Risk AssetsThe crypto
rally coincided with rising oil prices as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal
dimmed. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 1% to $57.24 per barrel, while
Brent crude rose 0.80% to $60.81.Russia
attacked Ukraine's Kherson Combined Heat and Power Plant on Sunday, causing
significant damage to infrastructure that provides heating for tens of
thousands of residents. Ukraine responded by striking the Syzran oil refinery
in Russia's Samara region, damaging the facility's only primary processing
unit.The attacks
complicated diplomatic progress, even as President Donald Trump and Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated headway on a 20-point peace plan. The
nearly four-year conflict has contributed to persistent global inflation
pressures.Bitcoin And XRP Price
Technical AnalysisBitcoin Under PressureAccording
to my technical analysis, Bitcoin is consolidating within a range last seen in
April. The upper boundary sits between $90,000 and $92,000, reinforced by the
50-day exponential moving average and a 110% Fibonacci extension. The lower
limit rests at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a $86,000-$84,000 zone
that's been actively tested since late November.The medium
and long-term setup remains bearish, with the moving average configuration
suggesting a downtrend. I continue to target a decline toward $74,000 – this
year's April lows – where I expect stronger institutional accumulation. Until Bitcoin
breaks decisively from this consolidation, extended sideways movement likely
persists through the turn of the year.Until Bitcoin
breaks decisively from this consolidation, extended sideways movement likely
persists through the turn of the year. The current range represents the same
level of volatility compression last observed in April, suggesting a
significant move may be building.XRP In Bearish TrendFor XRP,
the picture looks similarly challenging. While the token tested $1.92 on Monday
before settling around $1.90, it faces resistance at a local level marked by
June lows and retested in November. The bearish moving average setup –
particularly the 50-200 EMA death cross that formed in early November –
suggests further downside. Initial support sits at $1.80, then $1.70-$1.61,
with an ultimate target around $1.25.The chart
shows a network of significant resistance levels ahead, including the current
local zone being tested. I expect further depreciation, potentially before
year-end. Initial support sits at $1.80, representing this month's lows,
followed by the $1.70-$1.61 zone marked by April's lows. My ultimate target
sits around $1.25 – the flash crash lows from October 10 – which would
represent a decline of several dozen percentage points from current levels.The price
currently trades below both key moving averages, which reinforces the bearish
outlook in the medium term.Waiting for January
Catalysts?Despite
growing institutional adoption and policy wins under the pro-crypto Trump
administration, Bitcoin has slipped roughly 4% in 2025. Many traders now look
to January for fresh catalysts as liquidity returns to markets."Looking
ahead, crypto's calm may prove temporary once liquidity returns and macro
narratives reassert themselves in the new year," Kruger said. "Should
easing expectations firm or risk appetite broaden further, Bitcoin and Ethereum
could re-engage from a position of relative balance rather than excess. In that
sense, the more subdued tone may be laying the groundwork for a more durable
[move] into the new year."Asian
equity markets traded quietly on Monday, with thin year-end volumes keeping
activity muted. South Korea's KOSPI index provided an exception, rallying 1.7%
on gains in chipmaker stocks.Crypto Price Analysis FAQWhy did Bitcoin go up
today?Bitcoin
rose over 2% on Monday as funding rates reached their highest level since
October 18, signaling renewed demand for bullish positions in perpetual futures
markets. The move appears driven by short-term retail traders rebuilding
leveraged positions after October's $19 billion liquidation event. Rising
geopolitical tensions from renewed Russia-Ukraine attacks also pushed investors
toward alternative assets.Will Bitcoin go up in
2025?Bitcoin has
declined roughly 4% in 2025 despite hitting an all-time high of $126,251 in
October. Analysts surveyed by CNBC predict prices could reach $150,000 to
$200,000 by year-end, driven by institutional adoption, favorable regulations
under the Trump administration, and growing corporate treasury strategies.
However, technical analysis suggests near-term consolidation with potential
downside to $74,000 before a sustained rally materializes.Is Bitcoin a good
investment now?Bitcoin
faces mixed signals in late 2025. While institutional inflows continue and 61
major US firms have adopted Bitcoin treasury strategies, the cryptocurrency
trades in a bearish technical pattern with resistance at $90,000-$92,000.
Volatility remains high, with historical corrections of 70-80% from peaks.
Long-term investors betting on continued institutional adoption may find
current levels attractive, but near-term traders should expect extended
sideways movement through early 2026.What factors affect
Bitcoin's price?Bitcoin's
price responds primarily to three forces: global liquidity measured by money
supply (M2), which explains over half of price variance; leverage in the
futures and derivatives markets; and on-chain fundamentals like mining
difficulty and holder behavior. Additional factors include institutional ETF
inflows, regulatory developments, geopolitical tensions affecting risk
appetite, and supply constraints from the halving cycle.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
M&A Volumes in 2025 Surge 50% to $4.5 Trillion on Megadeal Wave
The global
mergers and acquisitions market roared back to life in 2025, with total deal
value reaching $4.5 trillion according to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data.
The surge marks the second-highest annual total on record, trailing only the
pandemic-era frenzy of 2021.Global M&A Surges to
$4.5 Trillion in 2025What really
defined this year was the sheer size of individual transactions. Companies
announced 68 deals valued at $10 billion or more, an all-time high that
reshaped everything from media to railroads. These megadeals accounted for a
disproportionate share of total activity, even as the overall number of
transactions fell 7% to the lowest level since 2016."I
haven't seen large-scale M&A like this in a decade," Tony Kim,
co-president of investment bank Centerview Partners, told the Financial Times.
"These are deals which are really transforming industries. Scaled M&A
requires a lot of important ingredients in the mix to succeed, and we seem to
have all of those elements today."LSEG plans to link its financial data and analytics services with OpenAI’s chatbot, allowing licensed users to access pricing information, news, and analytical tools directly within the ChatGPT interface.American
companies drove much of the year's activity, with deals involving US targets
totaling $2.3 trillion - the highest proportion since 1998. Those transactions
generated more than half of the estimated $135 billion in investment banking
fees, up 9% from last year.The two
biggest deals exemplify the year's bold dealmaking: Netflix and Paramount are
battling for control of Warner Bros Discovery, while Union Pacific and Norfolk
Southern are pursuing a $250 billion railroad merger that would create a
transcontinental giant.Both
scenarios echo 2021's megadeal landscape, when WarnerMedia merged with
Discovery and Canadian Pacific Railway acquired Kansas City Southern for $31
billion.Trump Administration
Shifts Regulatory LandscapeDealmakers
pointed to loosened regulatory oversight under the Trump administration as a
catalyst for bolder transactions. Companies that might have hesitated to pursue
transformative deals in previous years felt more comfortable taking on
regulatory risk."What
we see with corporate clients is a willingness to take on regulatory risk for
transactions that are strategic," Andrew Nussbaum, co-chair of the
executive committee at law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, told FT.
"They see a willingness of the regulators to engage in constructive
dialogue."The path
wasn't entirely smooth. Trump's sweeping "liberation day" tariffs
announced in early April temporarily froze activity as companies reassessed
their plans. But momentum returned quickly, with dealmaking posting
back-to-back quarters above $1 trillion in the second half - the first time
that's happened in four years.Private Equity Activity
Lags Broader MarketBuyout
firms struggled to match the broader market's pace, with private equity
dealmaking up just 25% to $889 billion. These firms continue to face challenges
exiting existing investments, though some flagship transactions did
materialize.The largest
was a $55 billion take-private of video game maker Electronic Arts led by Saudi
Arabia's Public Investment Fund, with backing from Silver Lake and Jared
Kushner's investment firm."The
general narrative is that sponsors are not active, but there were some large
take-private transactions," Anu Aiyengar, global head of advisory and
M&A at JPMorgan Chase, said to FT. "Despite
the equity markets hitting record highs, mispriced opportunities continue to
exist and the scale of these opportunities are made possible with financing
coming from a myriad of sources."A pickup in
large initial public offerings - including medical supply group Medline and
security services company Verisure - gave private equity firms more options to
exit positions beyond traditional M&A sales.Goldman
Sachs expects the momentum to continue. "Over the next couple of years
there's room for more activity, and we certainly feel the sponsor wave in
particular is only just gaining momentum," Andre Kelleners, co-head of
European investment banking at the firm, concluded.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
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