BNP Paribas and AXA Investment Managers have combined their two trading teams within BNP Paribas Dealing Services. The move marks a further development of BNP Paribas’ acquisition of the firm in July 2025, in a deal valued at €5.1 billion. The firms have now completed all main legal mergers, spanning AXA IM, BNP Paribas Real Estate Investment Management (BNPP REIM) and BNP Paribas Asset Management (BNPP AM), to form a single entity – BNP Paribas Asset Management.  As part of the move, several members of AXA IM’s trading team have officially joined BNP Paribas Asset Management.“Benefiting from a critical size in public and alternative assets, BNP Paribas would serve its customer base of insurers, pension funds, banking networks and distributors more efficiently,” said Jean-Laurent Bonnafé, director and chief executive of BNP Paribas, speaking in August 2024. “The strategic partnership entered into with AXA, the cornerstone of this project, confirms the ability of both our groups to join forces. This major project, which would drive our growth over the long-term, would represent a powerful engine of growth for our Group.”Read more – BNP Paribas to pay €5.1 billion for AXA Investment Managers in trillion-dollar asset management JV As part of the acquisition, the firm signed a long-term partnership with the AXA Group to manage a large part of its assets, and will allow BNP Paribas Group to form a European asset management platform encompassing more than €1.5 trillion in assets under management. The post BNP Paribas and AXA Investment Managers trading teams unify appeared first on The TRADE.

BMLL and Wamid – the technology and innovation arm of Saudi Tadawul Group (STG) – have launched a new platform, Wamid Analytics, designed to enhance institutional research and trading strategy optimisation, among other use cases. Specifically, the offering is a suite of advanced market analytics solutions designed to enhance transparency, insight, and efficiency across the Saudi Arabian and global capital markets.  Developed in collaboration with BMLL, it will enable both local and international market participants to access sophisticated analytics tools for global markets – available both in Arabic and English. Yazeed Al Domaiji, chief executive of Wamid, said: “The launch of WAMID Analytics represents a major step forward in WAMID’s mission to deliver innovative market infrastructure solutions that strengthen the Saudi capital market and enhance its global integration.” Read more: BMLL and Saudi Tadawul Group partner The core of the Wamid Analytics suite is the no-code, cloud-based dashboard. The platform is set to provide access to advanced metrics derived from order book data collected from global equity markets, and allows users to analyse market behaviour, liquidity, and execution quality in granular detail. In addition to the analytics library,  Wamid Analytics offers intuitive visual tools that enable users to compare trends, benchmark performance, and explore market microstructure across time horizons. The post BMLL and Saudi Tadawul Group launch new analytics platform appeared first on The TRADE.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has launched the selection procedure for the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives consolidated tape provider (CTP) in the EU.  Firms interested in participating are currently being encouraged to register and submit their tender requests and expressions of interest by 11 February 2026. Speaking to The TRADE, Sassan Danesh, chief executive of Etrading Software, which was named the UK bond CTP by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in September 2025, said: “The launch of ESMA’s tender is an important step in supporting the EU’s ambition to deliver greater transparency in OTC derivatives markets.  “Improved access to high-quality post-trade OTC derivatives data has the potential to strengthen market efficiency, confidence and oversight for this important asset class. We have been actively engaged in this space for several years, and we expect to make a further announcement in the coming days.” ESMA is expected to decide on the OTC derivatives CTP by the beginning of July 2026.  Read more – Trade associations call on ESMA and the European Commission to strengthen consolidated tape framework The provision of a CT for OTC derivatives is set to address issues of fragmentation across European markets, through consolidating post-trade data from data contributors onto a single and continuous electronic stream.  In addition, the tape is expected to allow market participants to gain access to accurate information, to enable more efficient price discovery, and align with the Savings and Investment Union (SIU) initiatives.  Following this initial selection procedure, requests received will be assessed according to exclusion and selection criteria, and ESMA will then invite successful participants to submit an application. The successful applicant for the CTP will take on a contract to operate the tape for five years, following authorisation with ESMA. Read more – European Commission sets date for derivatives consolidated tape tender The launch marks a further consolidated tape for EU markets in recent months. In December 2025, EuroCTP was awarded the CTP contract for shares and ETFs by ESMA, after being the only confirmed bidder in the process.  Similarly, in July 2025, fairCT, co-ordinated by Ediphy was selected to be the first CTP for bonds in the EU, following a six-month application process.  The post ESMA launches initial selection process for OTC derivatives consolidated tape appeared first on The TRADE.

What key areas should desks prioritise when it comes to futureproofing?In order to future-proof FX desks, we need to think holistically across data, technology, talent, and strategy. These four key areas, if executed well, will drive a highly successful FX desk and ensure it maintains its operational advantage over time. What should desks be focusing on when looking at data? I love data, however, to harness data effectively, we must ensure it is high-quality, easily accessible, and that our desk can interpret and apply it. Take TCA for example – pre-trade, real-time, and post-trade. If we have accurate post-trade data, then we can analyse which banks are winning our flow, in which currency pairs and at what times of day they excel, how their spreads look, what their latencies are, and whether they have market impact when we trade with them. Armed with this data, we can challenge our liquidity providers, giving both positive and critical feedback that will result in stronger relationships and better execution in the future. We can also use post-trade TCA to analyse our own decisions. How are we performing as traders? What does the alpha profile look like for our PMs, and can we give them any feedback to help with the trade idea generation process? When we combine post-trade TCA with real-time analyses of volatility, market depth, and current spreads, we can optimise our execution. Should we risk transfer, or should we use an algorithm? If so, which one? Without data that is accurate, accessible, and understood, none of this is possible.How is your desk approaching the rise of artificial intelligence? At Manulife, we’re actively exploring how artificial intelligence can enhance our trading desks’ value. Some applications, such as our in-house deep research tool, are focused on efficiency. It can screen the constant flow of fixed income trade ideas to identify the most compelling opportunities or perhaps consolidate dozens of macro viewpoints into a single note that highlights consensus views and key outliers.Others are more quantitative, such as leveraging our own data to determine – given prevailing market conditions – whether a trade is best executed through voice, electronic, or algorithmic channels. The opportunities are vast, but it comes with an important caveat; AI is not a silver bullet. It is only as effective as the person guiding it. A skilled industry professional can do incredible work with the technology, but it’s important to keep in mind that on the flip side, inexperienced use can lead to risks. This is why it’s important to us to approach the use of AI carefully – particularly where, when and how to apply it. AI amplifies existing skills and offers additional support to our teams and their day to days, but it doesn’t serve as a replacement to the expertise and knowledge of our teams. The onus is on us in the investment teams to evaluate the work product and partner closely with our AI development teams to drive the results closer to something immediately useful and beneficial. What are you looking for in a trader and how do you ensure retention on your desk? The FX trading desks of tomorrow, and increasingly of today, require a new kind of talent. It’s no longer enough to be a market expert. Traders now need a hybrid skillset, which could include skills such as coding ability, data science expertise, market structure knowledge, algorithmic experience, automation skills, and most importantly, the ability to build strong human relationships. The ideal trader is part technologist, part strategist, part market psychologist, and part diplomat. When we’re building a trading desk, we look for diversity of skills, so we can build a team where traders’ strengths complement each other. Just as important is retention. Empowerment is key and important at our firm. Traders should have the freedom to experiment with new tools and data, rather than simply following old playbooks. Ownership of projects, opportunities to develop areas of expertise, and access to upskilling and cross training all help keep a team engaged and evolving. But above all, culture is vital. This means creating an environment where people want to come to the office and see it as a place where they can talk, laugh, and be themselves. A trading floor with energy and engagement is a trading floor people want to be a part of. Ultimately, when people are having fun and feel empowered, it increases both the likelihood of them wanting to stay with the team and how they perform on the team. That combination of skill, culture, and engagement is what truly builds a resilient and effective trading desk. Looking to the future, apart from what we’ve discussed so far, what are you focusing on? Partnerships and alpha generation. Externally, FX trading depends on technology and liquidity relationships. Desks must remain aware of fintech and technology offerings. They need to know what is essential, what is optional, and what is cost-effective. Another important point to remember is that FX remains a two-party business. For each trade, we need a buyer and a seller. Cultivating those trust-based relationships with liquidity providers is crucial, and it always will be. The human touch, where we are nurturing trust, developing a rapport, and fostering long-term collaboration – that is what gives FX trading desks their edge. Internally, strong relationships with PMs are essential as well. It is not enough to have a brief call or a Teams meeting; the goal is to build trust through regular interactions, whether that be chatting daily or weekly, or grabbing coffee. Understanding their needs and demonstrating how traders can support them helps both sides flourish. When traders can become alpha generators, that’s where real value is created.The post Fireside Friday with… Manulife Investment Management’s Peter Welsby appeared first on The TRADE.

Elisabeth Kirby, head of market structure, Tradeweb  Next year, the regulatory landscape in the US will continue to evolve around two key themes, which is the gradual integration of digital and traditional finance, and the implementation of the Treasury and repo central clearing mandate. The digital and crypto space remains central to the regulatory landscape, as policymakers explore frameworks to balance innovation and market integrity. As digital assets continue to grow in scale and relevance, their integration into established market infrastructure will become an increasingly important focus for both regulators and market participants. At the same time, attention will shift to how firms implement Treasury and repo clearing in order to meet the mandate, underscoring its importance to overall market structure.  Rob Cranston, head equity business development sales strategy, SIX  Too often, market structure debates dwell on limits and labels. A better path forward in 2026 is to strengthen the value of transparent pricing. When incentives align around that goal (providing transparent and visible prices to the market), the overall market benefits from better information, as well as increased transparency on volumes.  This year we have seen lighter lit depth, a heavier reliance on the close, and more fragmented daytime activity. When most learning happens only at the end of the day, or in private pools of liquidity, spreads appear tight yet offer little insight into true supply and demand during the session.  The central task for the new year is to rebuild the conditions that make transparent pricing valuable for all participants. That means creating incentives that reward displayed size, adapting call windows to concentrate interest around key moments, and enabling on-exchange retail price improvement to bring more natural flow onto lit venues.  Rather than debating venue types, Europe should focus on outcomes. Ultimately, better transparency improves spreads, strengthens depth, and supports resilient markets. Restore those incentives and intraday liquidity should follow.  Andy Mahoney, managing director, EMEA, FlexTrade Systems  Over the past 12 months, the demand for innovation in pre-trade analytics, algorithms, actionable insights, and liquidity has become abundantly clear. On the buy-side, traders seek richer data and execution tools across asset classes while remaining in their core platforms. Conversely, the sell-side is continually seeking an edge to attract new business amid increased competition – from both traditional and non-traditional avenues. However, innovation has been lethargic on both sides, often curtailed by inappropriate protocols and slow-moving, outdated processes.  Looking ahead to 2026, it will be defined by flexibility and re-thinking traditional delivery mechanisms. The recent offering from Goldman Sachs for real-time order status updates (OSUs) via API clearly signals the direction we can expect over the next 12 months – creative, technology-enabled services from the sell-side that allow the buy-side to drive their desired business and trading outcomes, rather than offerings shaped by what the tech can do.  As the sell-side continues to evolve from a liquidity provider to a technology partner, offerings that leverage digitisation to open lines of communication between the buy-side and the sell-side will pave the way for future innovation. The winners in this evolution will be those who embrace open architectures and API-driven workflows to create a frictionless trading experience. This new direction will empower the buy-side with unprecedented control, while allowing the sell-side to deepen client engagement through technology.  Anish Puaar, head of European equity market structure, Optiver  As we head into 2026, EU and UK policymakers have an opportunity to reassess the ill-fitting capital rules that currently constrain European market makers. The existing rules have led many of EU’s largest market makers to either relocate outside of Europe or seek growth in other regions. The European Banking Authority recently recommended positive changes to these rules, which we believe will improve liquidity provision across EU markets, while the UK is also planning a more proportionate regime that will boost liquidity in UK markets and complement the EU’s reforms.  The new year will see intense debate on the EU Savings and Investment Union and ways to improve market integration. Supervision of trading venues and clearing houses are likely to dominate political discussions but the EU should seize the opportunity to harmonise its fragmented post-trade infrastructure and improve the equity consolidated tape.  We’re also seeing a renewed push to encourage more retail participation in Europe, with many exchanges launching new mechanisms to attract retail flow. These developments are welcome but must be coupled with measures that encourage savers to invest in financial markets.  The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: Market structure – part two appeared first on The TRADE.

Alex Dalley, head of European cash equities, Cboe Global Markets   Encouraging retail participation will once again be a defining theme of Europe’s equity markets in 2026, as regulators, exchanges, and brokers intensify efforts to make trading more accessible, cost-efficient, and engaging for individual investors. Historically, retail participation in European markets has lagged behind the US, constrained by cultural attitudes and regulatory complexity. That dynamic has begun to shift with the rise in Europe of neo-brokers – many of whom helped drive the US retail revolution – and the launch of retail focused initiatives by exchanges. Policymakers are also advancing measures to broaden access and improve investor outcomes.   A landmark change will arrive in June 2026 with the EU-wide ban on payment for order flow. We think this will be a positive step for investors, encouraging greater execution of retail order flow directly on multilateral trading venues.   Structural reforms will also be critical. The EU’s Market Integration and Supervision Package, set for finalisation in 2026, represents a pivotal opportunity to strengthen competitiveness, ensure a level playing field between venues, and modernise post-trade infrastructure. Key priorities include maintaining innovation and competition between bilateral and multilateral venues, and extending interoperability in equities clearing across all European cash markets.  Matt Clarke, head of distribution and liquidity management, US, XTX Markets    Estimates suggest that retail investors now make up approximately 30% of daily US equity trading volume. Yet the buy-side has long struggled to interact with this flow directly, as most retail orders were traditionally routed to off-exchange wholesalers. That landscape is beginning to shift.   Increasingly more retail brokers are now seeking to trade at the midpoint on ATS “one-to-many” hosted rooms before sending orders to wholesalers. Several forward-thinking brokers are connecting to these rooms and resting conditional midpoint interest on behalf of their clients.   Both sides may benefit. Institutions gain access to a large pool of high-quality, often uncorrelated retail liquidity. Retail brokers receive additional midpoint price improvement from institutional investors with longer time horizons and diverse investment styles.   I expect more firms to experiment with this model in 2026.  Gavin Williamson, chief executive, The Broker Club   As part of its growth strategy, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has looked at transparency and investor protection, whilst deciding if the risk warnings could be more appropriate. Exchanges have introduced zero-commission trading and fractional shares, making investing more accessible and attracting a broader audience. Investor education and financial literacy emerged as central themes, with the view that schools, employers, and financial institutions should all be involved.    The FCA is looking to embed educational tools within trading apps. When asked whether brokers should educate investors on products, the consensus was that they should provide some guidance, but it is not their responsibility to fully educate.   During 2026, we expect to see a continuation of new listing rules to make London more IPO friendly, additional PISCES venues, and a liquidity programme for small/mid-cap equities, plus market-maker incentives. There will remain a focus on UK retail investing with a rebuilding of confidence in domestic markets and strengthening education.  The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: Retail, retail, retail  appeared first on The TRADE.

Geoff Yu, senior market strategist, BNY  Emerging market FX enters 2026 with a constructive backdrop. I see three forces tilting the balance toward appreciation rather than a simple weak-dollar trade. First, local-currency bonds stand to benefit if the US easing cycle extends. Historically, lower US rates compress EM funding costs and support duration, particularly in Latin America, reinforcing the carry-and-currency proposition. That said, event risks are real: Brazil’s presidential election, the USMCA review kick-off, and US midterms will likely generate periodic volatility.   Second, flows are improving as EM sovereigns and reserve managers diversify fixed-income exposures away from traditional safe havens. With growth projections resilient and many EM central banks retaining policy room to manoeuvre, EM debt looks sustainable. Policy flexibility is a key differentiator if momentum cools.   Third, moving away from the dollar and US assets has happened on the margins this year and will undoubtedly be a long-term theme. Talk will pick-up upon further trade tensions, but we doubt there will be aggressive moves by any external investors in that regard. Meanwhile, countries will continue to look at new payment and settlement systems, relying on new technology, but fully cognisant of the fact that the US is also moving forward with financial innovation.   Taken together, 2026 reads as an EM strength narrative. Our iFlow data continue to show relative under-weighting of EM positions across all assets, which will help generate momentum for diversification next year.   Charles Mangin, head of FX trading, Crown Agents Bank   Next year should be a continuation of 2025 with broad emerging market strength. The further interest cuts expected in the US and other major countries should be beneficial, as they may provide the much-needed breathing space lacking in high-rate environments. With lower inflation pressure, lower international rates and a dollar on the back foot, we should continue to see investment funds diversify into the Global South, which in turn will help strengthen their currencies.   A number of key economies have undertaken positive policy developments over the last year, which will hopefully allow them to benefit from these potentially easier times and generate sustainable growth. We might highlight the Ghanian cedi’s 30% appreciation against the dollar this year, alongside inflation in Ghana reaching lows not seen for many years, as an increasing sign of Global South policymakers achieving real positive impacts on their markets.   Dan Burke, global head of emerging markets, MarketAxess   Between 2017 and 2024, outstanding emerging market debt has doubled from $20 trillion to $40 trillion. Over 90% of this increase has been driven by local currency bond issuance from companies and governments to support growth initiatives and infrastructure development. We expect this growth to continue in 2026, following strong investor appetite for this asset class in 2025 as emerging markets benefited from a more supportive macro backdrop.   What has been particularly exciting is that this growth in EM debt has come hand-in-hand with growth in electronic trading, both in local and hard currency bonds. Investors are increasingly looking to electronic platforms for trading and data solutions, especially for larger size transactions. It’s clear that the spotlight will remain on emerging market bonds in 2026, with the expansion of JP Morgan’s GBI-EM index to additional emerging economies expected, along with Korea’s addition to the FTSE WGBI index. We expect to see more growth in electronic trading as investors look to execute transparently, efficiently and competitively.   The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: All about emerging markets  appeared first on The TRADE.

Stephan J Aguirre, senior fixed income trader, Janus Henderson  As we look ahead to 2026, the trading landscape is rapidly being redefined by technology. Artificial intelligence and quantitative systems are no longer optional – they are central to alpha generation and execution. By leveraging machine learning and predictive analytics, trading desks can uncover patterns invisible to traditional models, enabling faster, smarter decisions.  Next-generation computing, including quantum capabilities, will push systematic strategies to new heights. These tools allow us to solve complex optimisation problems in real time, enhancing portfolio construction, trade execution, and risk management for superior outcomes.  Blockchain-driven tokenisation is opening new asset classes and venues, creating liquidity opportunities that were unimaginable a few years ago. For clients, this means access to innovative markets with greater transparency, efficiency, and liquidity.  To support these advances, infrastructure renovation is critical. Leveraging an integrated OMS and EMS, optimising cloud architecture, and increasing computer power ensures speed and resilience – key ingredients for competitive execution.  Finally, governance and regulation will shape adoption. Our team is committed to aligning cutting-edge strategies with evolving frameworks, ensuring compliance while delivering performance.  Technology is not just transforming trading – it’s redefining what’s possible. Our desk is ready to harness these innovations, embracing the value that execution supersedes intention, for the benefit of all our clients.  Justin Peterson, chief technology officer, Tradeweb  We’re entering what could be described as the ‘electronic trading 2.0’ era – where technologies like AI and distributed ledger technology are redefining how markets operate. AI not only supports execution, but also transforms how traders interact with data and insights, from intelligent chat interfaces to predictive analytics that provide more natural and intuitive access to information. Alongside distributed ledger technology, these innovations represent the two pillars of the next phase of electronic markets – driving greater efficiency, transparency, and productivity across the trading lifecycle as we move into next year.    Jens Hachmeister, head of issuer services and new digital markets, Clearstream  Writing, research, summarise: we all installed at least one new AI app on our phone in the last months. And the market for AI technologies is expected to grow from already impressive $244 billion to over $800 billion in 2030.  Next year will see an acceleration of operational deployment of AI in the institutional finance space, fundamentally changing intra- and cross-organisational processes. Be it product offerings with AI-as-a-service or in-house support in operational tasks. But first, we need to learn how to walk in order to run: there is still significant data harmonisation needed to build a solid foundation to achieve this deep personalisation, transparency and data insight.   Concurrently, digital asset adoption will mature substantially. The adoption of platforms like D7 DLT will be crucial for bringing liquidity to tokenised assets with financial market infrastructures beginning to digitise their vast assets under custody. A core strategic principle will be ensuring interconnectivity between TradFi and DeFi to allow for a seamless multi-platform ecosystem experience.  These advancements should never happen in isolation or only for a great headline; they have to tackle the industry’s most pressing challenges, including margin compression, market harmonisation, and the operational demands of the transition to T+1.  Michiel Verhoeven, chief executive, Xceptor  In 2026, AI adoption will continue to dominate headlines. Yet, without a clear strategy, institutions risk creating a money pit. Firms should ask themselves: “what are our pain points and how can we achieve the necessary outcomes with AI?”. Without the right infrastructure, data management, and clarity of purpose, technology is not a magic fix.    For example, AI can drastically reduce time spent extracting information from complex tax documents, and agentic AI could augment productivity further by proactively solving problems and triggering downstream actions. But without addressing inconsistent data formats, firms will face more errors and time spent correcting them, or even financial and non-compliance risks. Issues with data reliability, quality, and flow are common causes of failed AI projects – flawed data creates flawed AI. Firms must invest in platforms that normalise, enrich, and validate data across fragmented systems before scaling AI projects.  Scott Frisby, head of strategy for Europe, Elavon  After months of proof-of-concept announcements from major payments processors, 2026 will see agentic commerce move from theoretical promise to practical implementation.    AI agents will begin handling complex shopping tasks such as researching products, curating selections, and even negotiating prices on consumers’ behalf. The true breakthrough lies in bot-to-bot transactions, where merchants’ AI systems interact directly with consumers’ agents to complete purchases.  This fundamentally improves both sides of the transaction: consumers save time while gaining highly personalised shopping experiences, whilst merchants gain unprecedented insight into purchase intent and consumer preferences. However, widespread adoption hinges on resolving critical operational and regulatory challenges around liability, fraud prevention, and compensation models for large language models.    The payments industry is working double-time to establish these frameworks, from developing new fraud detection protocols through to creating standards for agent authentication. 2026 will be a very interesting year as these developments take hold.    The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: Artificial intelligence – part two appeared first on The TRADE.

Efthimia Kefalea, head of derivatives clearing development and digital innovation, Eurex   The next 12 months will mark an important phase in the digital transformation of financial markets. Tokenisation is emerging as a game-changer, particularly in collateral management, addressing long-standing inefficiencies in mobilising collateral assets. At the same time, initiatives like the BIS Project Agorá aim to revolutionise FX payments through distributed ledger technology, promising faster, more efficient cross-currency payments.   This shift is attracting new technology-driven entrants eager to expand into the institutional space, challenging established players to adapt. Central banks and regulators are already responding: the ECB has announced plans for central bank money on ledger, while in the US, stablecoins are gaining traction as alternative settlement instruments. These developments signal a future where traditional infrastructures coexist with digital-native solutions.   To harness this transformation as an opportunity rather than a disruption, market participants, policymakers, and regulators must collaborate on standards, interoperability, and risk frameworks. The coming year will not just be about innovation; it will be about building trust and resilience in a rapidly evolving financial ecosystem.   Horacio Barakat, head of digital innovation, Broadridge   Tokenisation activities are growing and are poised to reshape capital markets, enhance efficiency, and democratise access for investors. As direct-to-investor distribution models gain momentum, tokenisation is increasingly being recognised as a transformative force – with more than 80% of early adopters citing its potential to deepen client engagement and streamline operations.   The key forces laying the groundwork for this acceleration is the move from pilot projects to scaled platforms, real-world tokenisation use cases, and clearer regulatory frameworks. Proven performance from early DLT applications is demonstrating security, scalability, and trust. The rise of tokenised assets and stablecoins is unlocking liquidity, reducing transaction costs, and transforming global payments and settlements. Greater regulatory clarity, including frameworks such the US GENIUS Act, are reducing industry uncertainty and encouraging participation, paving the way for broader integration of digital assets.   Together, these developments will continue to propel tokenisation from experimentation to enterprise adoption. While tokenisation is still in its early stages, the convergence of trust, innovation, and clear regulation positions tokenisation to become one of the most significant structural shifts on the horizon for global capital markets.   Chris Bruner, chief product officer, Tradeweb   Next year will mark an important step forward for digital assets as tokenisation moves from proof-of-concept to practical implementation across traditional markets. We’re beginning to see how blockchain-based infrastructure can enable faster settlement, greater transparency and more efficient connectivity between asset classes. As these technologies mature, the distinction between digital and traditional assets will continue to blur – opening the door to truly interoperable markets. It’s a foundational change in how markets will operate over the next phase of electronification.   Paul Frost-Smith, chief executive, Komainu   Tokenisation on blockchain networks is set to become a major growth driver across financial markets in 2026 and beyond. Adoption is already accelerating across equities, bonds, real estate, and alternative investments, as tokenised assets offer enhanced liquidity, fractional ownership, and round-the-clock market access.   Blockchains are well suited to this shift, combining transparency, security, and programmability. At the same time, emerging technologies are addressing the remaining hurdles of interoperability and scalability. Platforms such as Stellar and Ripple’s XRPL have made headlines in 2025, helping to deliver these capabilities. We believe the one to watch is Bitcoin’s Liquid Network, which combines the power and security of Bitcoin to create a highly secure, fast, and confidential sidechain to support institutional-grade tokenisation.   With its settlement speed and Bitcoin’s proven security foundation, Liquid, and similar networks, could become central to regulated market infrastructure. As more institutions move into tokenised assets, we anticipate a broader transformation of capital markets, marked by expanded global access, greater operational efficiency, and new avenues for growth. Next year may well be the time tokenisation shifts from a niche innovation to mainstream financial architecture, built on Bitcoin.   The post The TRADE predictions series 2026:  Post-trade innovation  – part two  appeared first on The TRADE.

Steve Toland, co-founder, TransFICC   Fixed income is in a technology arms race where all trading firms need to automate their trading workflows or risk being left behind. Automation enables faster price updates and better execution.   In rates, automating responses to RFQs has become increasingly important. TCA means that clients know which dealers provide consistent pricing and the first of these dealers to respond frequently gets the trade. In US Treasuries, velocity is increasing. To manage this, many of the largest sell-side and buy-side firms are investing in software and hardware optimisation, including co-locating in global data centres.   In credit, portfolio trading will continue to get traction as many clients find this an efficient way to trade. However, all venues have slightly different workflows, which means that dealers connecting to multiple venues need to manage often complex workflows using technology solutions.  Outsourced liquidity, or trading-as-a-service, will continue to grow as regional banks access liquidity from other bank and non-bank liquidity providers, using an automated and efficient process. This has been happening in FX for around 20 years and is starting to get traction in govvies, corporates and IRS.   Swati Bhatia, global head of fixed income, financial information, SIX   Major asset managers have begun to pull back from riskier debt, and many investors will now be reassessing their portfolios to determine whether the returns they expect still justify the risks they are taking. To do that, reliable information across a range of bond terms and trading attributes is essential.  This year, market shocks involving Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group have not only unsettled credit markets, they have also exposed deeper weaknesses than many expected. While it’s not obvious other companies will follow suit in 2026, they provide early warning signs that investors need to be prepared for risks in fixed income markets.   When companies with such different profiles both trigger surprise delinquencies, confidence naturally falters.   Fixed income markets are often difficult to interpret because many bonds trade infrequently, over the counter, with little pre and post trade transparency. Prices can be opaque and small data gaps can lead to significant mispricing, particularly during periods of market stress. Investors have already highlighted corporate bond data as a major challenge, and these events show why.    Better pricing sources and more complete corporate actions data will be imperative for traders and risk departments to make sound trading decisions and managing risk with confidence throughout the New Year.  Dan O’Connell, vice president – interest rates and relative value, FlexTrade Systems   The last year saw the evolution of the rates trading space continue to gather pace  – trading volumes have hit record highs, innovative technologies and new venue offerings have emerged and come to the fore. Alongside this shift, we’ve seen increasing demand from clients and prospective customers for niche interest-rate workflows to be incorporated into the OEMS, so non-rates traders can execute nuanced trades more simply and efficiently without needing multiple trading systems.   As we move into 2026, we expect to continue to see an increase in requests for various interest rate workflows to be incorporated into the OEMS – from clients and prospective clients – both in volume and in the sophistication they offer. An emerging area we see, for example, is the ability to trade relative value and basis in the same manner as agency sell-side brokers. Being able to do so requires direct connectivity to multiple liquidity sources and trading platforms, ensuring actionable liquidity is always available – with the OEMS being the perfect unified platform to achieve this goal.   The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: What to expect in fixed income – part two  appeared first on The TRADE.

Mike Carrodus, chief executive, Substantive Research     After a great deal of prevaricating and internal hassle, European research budgets will move from being funded by asset managers’ own P&Ls to being funded from commission-sharing agreements (CSAs). This will align the UK and EU with North America and help European asset managers compete for better access to research and corporates. The vast majority of asset owner clients will accept that a small additional cost for research will be far exceeded by positive impacts to performance, and portfolio managers will benefit from greater flexibility and ability to access research, alt data and tooling/analytics.      In 2026 H2, the FCA and the EU will re-categorise corporate access as ‘research’, improving European asset managers’ ability to access the c-suites of the companies they need to analyse. Regulators will also allow data products that directly contribute to the investment process to be funded from CSAs, which will increase spend on alt data/analytics by long only managers and reduce the pressure on beleaguered buy-side data budgets. Vahan Sardaryan, chief executive, LDA Technologies In 2026, we expect bandwidth demands to keep climbing, pushing the industry closer to a full transition to 25 Gigabit Ethernet (25G). Exchanges are preparing for this shift, yet some market participants are still unsure about 25G solutions or have invested too heavily in legacy technology to make the change. Regardless, the market is steadily moving in that direction. More agile vendors, such as LDA, which can quickly adapt technology offerings to serve client needs, are emerging to fill the gaps. We will continue seeing challenges such as rising market volumes, making bandwidth the main bottleneck, especially with major data feeds pushing the limits.    We have already seen some firms adopt 25G-capable technology, replacing obsolete technology and preparing for a 25G future, while others will upgrade more slowly. Costs will vary dramatically: some firms only need new cabling, while others face multi-million-dollar infrastructure redesigns to keep up.    We are also seeing exchanges globally making fair data distribution a strategic priority, driving changes independently rather than being guided by regulation. To do so, they are tracking and eliminating advantages throughout the infrastructure, including cabling and hardware. Eugene Grinberg, chief executive and co-founder, SOLVE   Next year will mark an inflection point where real-time data and automation become oxygen for fixed income trading. Historically, information asymmetries and data fragmentation allowed firms to capture outsized returns while still relying on manual processes, limited automation, and stale data.     But transparency has been accelerating, driven by historically high volumes, amidst higher rates and expansion of retail fixed income products like SMAs and ETFs. This new paradigm is making those systemic information asymmetries disappear, forcing firms to modernise their operations and data sources.     As bid-offer margins compress and volumes surge, both buy- and sell-side firms will be forced to lean on data and automation to stay competitive. On the buy-side, portfolio optimisation will increasingly depend on higher-frequency decision-making powered by predictive pricing. On the sell-side, to keep up with higher volumes, desks will bifurcate processes into low-touch and high-touch execution, automating higher confidence decision making while making sure there is a human in the loop for more illiquid or complex trades.   By the end of 2026, the performance gap between firms that embrace automation and those that resist it will be unmistakable. The winners will be the ones using data as a core input to every decision, treating it not as a side benefit but as the foundation of their workflow.   The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: Key insights on data - part three appeared first on The TRADE.

Mark Govoni, chief executive, Liquidnet  As we move into 2026, one of the most interesting shifts we’re going to see is how the smartest market participants use AI to shift from being overwhelmed by data to harnessing contextual, personalised, and decision-ready insights where routine, repeatable research will increasingly be automated.  That should free people to concentrate on what truly adds value: deep domain expertise and informed decision-making. This evolution changes the competitive edge and 2026 should be the year that AI truly starts to power how clients and trading venues interact. Success will come from combining internal analytics with external expertise, embedding AI and alternative data into decision-making frameworks, and automating the everyday.   Jim Kwiatkowski, chief executive, LTX With data science and AI adoption accelerating, buy-side trading desks are poised to integrate AI into their workflows more deeply over the next 12 to 24 months – transforming pre-trade decision-making and trade execution.  Electronic trading has already improved liquidity by tightening pricing and expanding access to two-way liquidity. However, challenges persist, with rising execution and data costs and in executing large trades efficiently. To overcome these, firms will increasingly turn to data-driven strategies and the use of AI to enhance liquidity discovery, select counterparties and optimise pricing. Nearly 85% of firms plan to increase AI use in corporate bond trading over the next year, up sharply from 57% in 2024. This surge signals a pivotal shift toward an AI-powered bond market. As advanced analytics and machine learning become integral to trading, they promise to expand the universe of bonds that participants can analyse, uncover hidden liquidity, select likely counterparties, and lower transaction costs – marking the beginning of a new era in bond market efficiency and innovation.  Dharini Bala Gadiyaram, global head of risk products, Bloomberg  As 2026 approaches, buy-side firms are moving from AI pilots to fully embedding AI across the investment lifecycle – research, portfolio construction, trading, risk, and compliance – to drive scaled efficiencies.  At the same time, regulatory shifts are reshaping opportunities in private markets. The SEC’s decision to lift restrictions on closed-end funds holding private funds could open new retail access to private investments, setting the stage for more growth next year. Yet, this expansion comes with caution – high-profile defaults this year underscored potential risks. As growth and risk converge, maintaining a total portfolio view across public and private assets, supported by transparent and credible valuations, is more critical than ever.  Meanwhile, global dynamics are driving another key focus area: FX exposure. Asset managers with multi-currency portfolios have felt the strain of geopolitical volatility, heightening the importance of robust FX hedging. This has evolved into a strategic advantage, fuelling demand for real-time exposure management, advanced analytics, and straight-through processing that minimises both time and risk.  Rupert Brown, chief technology officer, Evidology Systems  Cyber attacks will continue to grow in 2026 affecting all consumer supply chains as well as corporate and governmental ones across the globe – at some stage there will be a recognition that AI cannot act as a dynamic defence mechanism against these due to the (natural) lack of information sharing amongst victims and the attack techniques being too complex and unique to be discerned systematically.   This will mark a turning point in the trust and value of the AI marketplace, with significant knock-on startup consolidations and failures and a broader cooling of investor confidence.  The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: Artificial intelligence appeared first on The TRADE.

Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco We believe 2026 will represent a rare period of synchronised global growth, driven by easing trade tensions, a rebound in manufacturing, and the delayed impact of global monetary easing – culminating in a short-lived upswing in real economic activity worldwide. AI remains a dominant theme but the cyclical recovery story in global manufacturing will gain traction. AI remains the productivity wildcard, fuelling optimism but also posing a systemic risk if emerging excess capacity were to erode pricing power for the AI supply chain.   Expect sticky inflation to keep central banks cautious, even as real yields decline under political pressure, particularly in the US. This dynamic could spur equity risk-taking while leaving US Treasuries vulnerable to see US 10Y yields higher by the end of 2026.  Emerging markets stand to benefit from a weaker dollar and improving sentiment, while Europe may reclaim its role as a growth engine.  In short, 2026 offers opportunity for those attuned to the rhythm of a late-cycle equity market.    Mark Montgomery, chief commercial officer, xyt   The rise of bilateral trading remains a concern to many market participants and continues to be a closely watched topic for next year. More trading is happening off the exchange’s central order book, and some brokers are seeing trades move away from them to the large market makers.   The market is getting better at identifying this flow. Market makers are standardising how they report this activity and traders are getting a better sense of which trades are addressable to the wider market. Traders remain concerned about price discovery and transparency if flow continues to migrate away from the order book.   But this trend is not irreversible. We’ve seen that during periods of volatility flow moves back from bilateral and other more opaque execution types to the exchange order book. During big geopolitical or macro events everyone wants price certainty.  Matt Weinberg, head of business development, IEX  Dark trading will remain a crucial part of trading strategies in 2026, but the way firms evaluate execution quality and venue allocation is changing.  Firms have historically focused on evaluating venue execution on shorter time horizons.  These short-term mark outs along with other metrics like fill and hit rates rate were the mainstays of venue evaluation.  As tools and trading evolve and mature, market participants are taking a more nuanced view of which dark venues best support their strategies.  Traders are using different kinds of venues to access midpoint and are evaluating them differently. They are seeking tools that let them engage liquidity on different terms depending on the strategy, urgency, and performance horizon they care about most.  For example, there may be multiple time intervals used for mark outs, as the focus expands towards longer-term time horizons and broader evaluations of market impact. As part of this push to evaluate venues more holistically, we also believe market participants will further incorporate unique features (like price improvement) different venues offer.  In 2026, the real story is not just the growth of dark trading, but the growing sophistication of how firms measure it, and how that will redefine their access to non-displayed liquidity.  David Choate, chief operating officer, CAPIS  In 2026, regulators, asset owners, and policymakers will start to take a closer look at the long-term effects of passive dominance. Years of steady inflows into index funds and ETFs have simplified investing but also introduced side effects, like greater stock co-movement, shrinking research budgets, and fewer incentives for companies to go public.  Active management remains the foundation of healthy capital markets. It funds research, supports price discovery, and allocates capital based on merit rather than size. As markets grow more concentrated and liquidity more fragile, the need for those functions will become harder to overlook.  We may begin to see early discussions around rebalancing the landscape, whether through modest regulatory adjustments, new incentives for active participation, or renewed investor interest in differentiated strategies. The shift won’t happen overnight, but 2026 could mark the start of a broader recognition that both active and passive have essential roles in sustaining vibrant, efficient markets.  The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: Market structure appeared first on The TRADE.

Stéphane Boujnah, chief executive, Euronext    In 2025, the global economic and geopolitical order was shaken by Donald Trump’s return to the White House. As Europeans, we can no longer ignore that we have to fight for ourselves, for our sovereignty, for our strategic autonomy, for the survival of our democratic values.  If we act together, we will succeed in preserving what we have been building for more than 70 years. 2026 will be a year of acceleration of the European integration process.    Because Europeans have decided to succeed together, not to fail separately. Integrated European capital markets are part of the solution, as European companies seek fundings to finance their innovation and remain competitive on a global scale.  As the leading European capital market infrastructure, Euronext will continue to integrate capital markets and to provide European companies and global investors with the one-stop shop solution to finance their growth in the long term.   Alison Higgins, head of markets, UK and Europe, and head of prime services at Standard Chartered   As we head into 2026, the mood feels cautiously optimistic – but don’t mistake calm for certainty. Rate cuts from the Fed and European Central Bank are widely expected, which should ease pressure on credit markets and support risk assets. Yet, politics and geopolitics will keep traders on their toes.    The US midterm elections could inject bursts of uncertainty into fiscal policy and rates, while Asia offers a different dynamic. North Asian economies – Japan, Korea and Taiwan – continue to hold substantial UST reserves, which acts as a stabiliser but also caps currency appreciation despite strong trade balances. This creates a tension: policy makers want competitive FX levels, yet reserve diversification remains slow, leaving dollar liquidity dominant.    For investors, this means FX volumes may cluster around emerging Asia rather than the majors, especially if US yields swing on political headlines.     The bottom line is: 2026 is unlikely to be a year of systemic shocks, but volatility will rotate across asset classes making active positioning and geopolitical awareness more important than ever.  Becki LaPorte, principal, AML strategy and innovation, FinScan   Over the next 12 months, the greatest market impact will come from tariff-driven financial risk. The global tariff environment, particularly US-led tariff policies, has created an entirely new challenge for financial institutions. Unlike traditional trade-based money laundering, tariff evasion can involve otherwise legitimate companies routing goods through complex pathways to reduce costs. This exposes banks to new credit, fraud, and sanctions-adjacent risks they’ve never had to categorise before.    The global tariff environment, particularly US-led tariff policies, has created an entirely new challenge for financial institutions. Tariffs will likely raise the prices of foreign goods for US consumers, potentially impacting companies’ bottom lines. Companies that have historically been good investments could see a decrease in their overall rating or stability. In an effort to maximise shareholder earnings, some companies may be tempted to circumvent normal trade routes to minimise costs.      Unlike traditional trade-based money laundering, tariff evasion can involve otherwise legitimate companies routing goods through complex pathways to reduce costs. Tariff evasion is illegal and presents an emerging risk in the securities and investments industry.   The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: The macro view appeared first on The TRADE.

Stacie Swanstrom, chief product officer at Pico  In 2026, the shift toward 24/7 trading will reveal which institutions are truly built for a global market and which are still operating on legacy assumptions. For years, firms have talked about being ‘always on’, but few have truly designed their systems, processes and teams to function continuously across time zones.  As more venues extend trading hours and liquidity becomes less bound by geography, market participants will face a new kind of readiness test. The challenge won’t be about speed, but about sustaining performance and oversight without interruption. Firms will need continuous observability, automated controls and the ability to respond instantly when volatility strikes – no matter the hour.  The transition to around-the-clock markets won’t happen overnight, but it will expose structural weaknesses in how many institutions operate today. The firms that adapt first will define what ‘global’ really means in the next era of market infrastructure.  Jason Wallach, chief executive, Bruce Markets  The past several years made one thing clear: extending the US trading day was never a question of demand. Investors were already active overnight, and global markets proved that liquidity would show up if given the chance. The real friction point was the underlying machinery. Key components – clearing cycles, data availability, corporate-action dissemination, venue redundancy – were designed for a discrete trading session, not continuous activity.  That picture has changed considerably. Over the course of 2025, the overnight market underwent a structural shift. Multiple fully operational venues now provide true redundancy, removing the single-point-of-failure dynamic that long defined extended hours. Brokerage tools and routing logic have matured to more closely mirror core-session standards. Coordination around market data, clearing windows and operational cutoffs has tightened, reducing the gaps that once limited risk appetite.  As a result, 2026 is the first year where 24-hour trading is supported by infrastructure built for continuity rather than novelty.  The coming year won’t be defined by announcements about ‘extended hours’ – it will be defined by the first real competitive overnight ecosystem in the US, and by the improvements in execution quality, predictability and investor experience that follow from it.  Magnus Haglind, senior vice president, head of capital markets technology, Nasdaq The next 12 months will mark a decisive shift in how we define mission-critical infrastructure. It’s no longer limited to systems that clear and settle trades; it now encompasses platforms that enable interoperability, real-time decision-making, and operational resilience in always-on markets. As settlement acceleration and 24-hour trading become our new reality, institutions will need to adopt operating models that prioritise agility and security without sacrificing trust or investor protection.  As markets evolve, the interaction of mission-critical systems will face growing scrutiny, making interoperability an essential requirement. Cloud technology has firmly established itself as the foundation of modern infrastructure, offering the flexibility, scalability, and governance that legacy systems cannot match with unrivaled potential to unleash the power of AI.  The convergence of traditional and digital finance will accelerate, with the integration of tokenisation and distributed ledger technology becoming increasingly vital to existing market structures and platforms. Strategic partnerships between established institutions and innovative platforms will bring fragmented liquidity pools and siloed digital asset projects together to deliver value.  In this new paradigm, mission-critical infrastructure extends to any system that sustains trust and continuity in a rapidly transforming financial ecosystem. The organisations that succeed will be those that embrace this expanded definition, investing in platforms that cater to this new reality while maintaining the integrity and protections that investors demand.  The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: The extended hours trading debate – part two appeared first on The TRADE.

James Baugh, head of European market structure, TD Securities  Given the record equity volumes we’ve enjoyed this year, it’s hard to see those levels maintained in 2026 especially if volatility dampens on the back of what we hope will be an improving geopolitical environment. No doubt a large part of the year will be taken up discussing the European Commission’s response to their 2025 consultation, which at the time of writing had yet to be published. This is part of the Savings and Investments Union strategy to make European markets more competitive. It is expected bilateral trading, declining lit order book activity, retail access, along with Digital Ledger Technology, 24-hour trading and tokenisation will all be under the spotlight.  Next year should also see One Chronos launch a competing periodic auction in Europe and by mid-year we should finally see the launch of the European Consolidated Tape.  Unfortunately, the UK is still consulting on their version of the equities tape, with timelines pushed out to 2027. Likewise, in 2026 we anticipate a wider consultation on the future state of the markets from the FCA. No doubt next year will also see Cboe and Nasdaq further advocating for benchmark crossing, whilst other primary venues will be focused on the roll out of the Auction Volume Discovery order type.  Vikesh Patel, global head of clearing, Cboe Global Markets and president, Cboe Clear Europe  Next year will see the finalisation of the EU’s Markets Integration and Supervision Package, aimed at promoting a more resilient, integrated and efficient pan-European financial infrastructure. At Cboe Clear Europe, we believe the key to achieving this goal is a competitive clearing environment, where full CCP interoperability for clearing in all European cash equities markets is mandated.   We’ve long championed this model and have witnessed first-hand the benefits it brings market participants, namely substantial operational and capital efficiencies through risk-netting and settlement compression. Equally critical to fostering an interconnected European marketplace is the need to strengthen the open access framework. Failure to effectively enforce non-discriminatory open access provisions in effect denies investors in those jurisdictions access to non-domestic instruments and the wider benefits of competition. We’re confident regulatory bodies will recognise these imperatives and take meaningful steps toward building a truly vibrant, unified capital market.  David Taylor, chief executive, Exegy   In 2026, we expect to see meaningful changes within the industry. US equities’ 24-hour trading will bring a new wave of retail participation from Asia, accelerating the influence of retail trading outside of normal trading hours. The impact on liquidity and price formation will provide new opportunities for savvy institutional traders and brokers. It also will add to the growing pressure to modernise the National Market System and to extend pricing protections beyond normal trading hours, as well as to re-energise the stalled overhaul of the antiquated consolidated tape regime.  More retail participation and fresh predictions of an extension to the historic bull market into 2026 will cause data volumes to surge to new records, pushing legacy infrastructure past its limits. Proactive technology and infrastructure investment by sophisticated firms seeking to maintain and grow market share will continue through the first half of 2026. Others will be faced with reactive spending by mid-2026 or forced to re-assess their business goals.  The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: Perspectives on equities appeared first on The TRADE.

Bianca Gould, head of fixed income and equities EMEA, BNY      In 2026, geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and surprises from central banks could be on the horizon. What this means for global markets remains to be seen. Europe’s push to T+1 shrinks post-trade windows and will tighten funding and FX, while in the US, UST central clearing will widen access, boost netting, cut counterparty risk, and demand sharper collateral and intraday margin playbooks.    With 24/5 trading, desks will focus on smarter automation, resilient ops, and real-time controls to keep costs down. Efficiencies and savings will come from clean, interoperable data, standardised STP, and AI that spots and fixes breaks before they land, driving vendor consolidation and more efficient post-trade. Ultimately, AI will be the copilot in 2026: in equities it will turbocharge routing, liquidity access, and surveillance; in fixed income it will sharpen quotes, improve OTC transparency, and optimise intraday liquidity and margin.   The same goes for digital assets and tokenisation, which add speed and customisability, deepening liquidity across bonds and stocks, while tightening spreads and cutting end-to-end costs. Long-term strategic partnerships tied to AI and digital assets will continue to be top-of-mind over the next 12 months.      Jo Burnham, margin expert, OpenGamma   Geopolitics has the potential to shape markets once again in 2026. As banks demand more cash from hedge funds to keep trades open, the wider market could face this same strain if further Trump tariff surprises trigger fresh selloffs.   Any uncertainty could drive sharp swings across equities, commodities, and currencies – translating directly into margin calls. Prime brokers are typically first to react, but clearing houses and trading counterparties quickly follow. When asset prices fall rapidly, clearing houses require more money to secure positions.    Pressure could intensify in non-cleared markets where risks are not pooled. Traders must judge the strength of their counterparties or risk sudden exposure. Meanwhile, any rising volatility will push collateral demands higher, locking out investors and amplifying stress.   If margin calls accelerate, forced selling can follow, potentially spreading into traditionally safe markets like government bonds. The lesson for the New Year is clear: managing margin efficiently will be pivotal to avoiding liquidity issues if volatility strikes.   Sylvain Thieullent, chief executive, Horizon Trading Solutions   Volatility this year exposed the fragility of trading systems, with many crumbling under the pressure of extreme market moves. Liquidity was scarce and real-time decision making essential. This instability combined with other market structure shifts, including the emergence of 24/7 trading, increased bouts of market uncertainty and significantly improved accessibility of digital assets, means adaptability will be the name of the game for traders in 2026.   The rise in retail participation will likely be another key driver of change in the liquidity landscape and trading environment, with regulators globally providing strong policy backing. This will continue to pose challenges for traditional retail brokers. The large retail trading platforms are reshaping opportunities for retail traders, enabling faster, more secure access to financial markets.   For traditional brokers to succeed, they must look at revolution, rather than incremental evolution. Restructuring engagement strategies and establishing agile technology infrastructures, built on finely tuned algorithms for speed and execution precision, will be crucial. Having technology capable of digesting and analysing significant volumes of data in milliseconds and executing trades with quantitative accuracy is no longer an option. However, it cannot be tech alone. It must be combined with the instincts, expertise and oversight of human traders.   The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: The impact of market volatility  appeared first on The TRADE.

Valérie Noël, head of trading, Syz Group   After years in the shadow of equities, bond trading is reclaiming its place at the heart of the market in 2026.   The return of real yields and a more balanced rate environment are redefining what it means to trade fixed income, not just to hold it.   Volatility has become manageable, spreads resilient and price discovery relevant again. This new landscape rewards judgment, execution skill, and an instinct for timing, qualities that define the art of the bond trader.   For trading desks, 2026 is not about chasing beta but mastering nuance: reading flows, interpreting policy shifts, and navigating liquidity with precision.   For private banks, the real opportunity lies in rebuilding the bridge between advisory and trading – helping clients capture fixed-income returns through active and risk-aware execution. An optimised mix of electronification and human expertise will be the key driver for this journey.   The bond trader is back – and so is the art of execution.   Chris Hollands, head of EMEA and US sales, TS Imagine    In 2026, we can expect trading technology to consolidate its position as a central pillar of success in fixed income trading. Rapid electronification has been a constant over the past decades, but as the proliferation of electronic trading in bond markets reaches critical mass, sophisticated investors need to have the necessary tools to interface with an increasingly complex asset class.   We can therefore expect fixed income EMS’s that automate and simplify complex fixed income order workflows to play an increasingly important strategic role at buy-side firms.  Desks need to work in unison, connecting across asset classes, while consuming vast swathes of data and plugging into emerging sub-asset classes like municipal bonds or loans.   As the buy-side consider their technology strategy for next year, the ability to handle standard and niche products with speed and precision whilst tapping into specialist expertise will be front of mind. Modern EMS’s solve these problems in the immediate term by catering to the nuances of fixed income markets. In the longer term, they play into the needs of a new generation of traders who think across asset classes and gravitate toward unified, data-enabled platforms.  Michael Ruvo, chief executive, BondWave   As the fixed income industry – both market participants and vendors – races to apply AI, the focus will initially be on internal adoption to automate workflows, increase efficiencies, and create operational scale. The ability to drive advanced insights quickly will enhance business intelligence, create new analytics, expand transparency, and automate trading activity.    Firms will also leverage AI to automate internal workflows – research, proposals, marketing, sales operations – to provide more operational scale as they attempt to grow their businesses and increase margins. While early adopters will drive practical application of the technology in their businesses, many market participants will still need time to develop the proper strategy while learning from these early adopters.   The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: What to expect in fixed income  appeared first on The TRADE.

Kevin Kennedy, executive vice president – North American markets, Nasdaq   I believe 2026 will be a transformative year for market innovation. On the technology front, I expect significant progress in tokenisation and digital assets, including tokenised securities and new product launches that drive meaningful AUM growth. We might also see the first ETFs structured as share classes of mutual funds, and AI will continue to reshape trading and market operations. I also anticipate clearer legislation on crypto and digital market structure, which will provide much-needed oversight to enable innovation.   From a regulatory perspective, we could expect updates to the order protection rule and related rules, while infrastructure changes like smaller tick sizes and a consolidated SIP will remain in focus. I also expect the launch of 23/5 trading to help enable global access to US markets – the largest and most liquid markets in the world.    Retail investors will continue to drive priorities, fueling growth in index options, buffered ETPs, and overall options activity, which reached record highs in 2025.   Darko Hajdukovic, head of digital markets infrastructure and chief executive of DMI private funds, LSEG   Capital markets are set for a major shift in 2026 with distributed ledger technology (DLT) being increasingly adopted to bring blockchain-powered innovation and efficiency to real world assets (RWA). The adoption of DLT as core infrastructure for markets will be a significant evolution and signal a future where tokenisation, liquidity enhancement, and data-driven automation redefine market operations, creating a more transparent, efficient, and inclusive financial ecosystem.   Central to this evolution is interoperable digital markets infrastructure (DMI). DMI introduces a framework that addresses long-standing inefficiencies by enabling tokenisation, real-time settlement, and secure post-trade servicing across asset classes. Its core strength lies in LSEG’s open model that embraces interoperability – connecting digital platforms with traditional systems to reduce friction, lower counterparty risk, and improve transparency.    This approach allows market participants to benefit from digital innovation without overhauling existing processes, thanks to modular integration and minimal adoption costs. Private markets are the first to benefit, with enhanced fund distribution and secure data access unlocking liquidity and efficiency. Beyond private funds, universal architectures will extend these benefits across equities, fixed income, and other asset classes, paving the way for tokenised assets to become mainstream.   Dirk Bullmann, managing director, public policy, strategy and innovation, CLS   Last year was pivotal for the evolution of the stablecoin market. Newly implemented regulatory regimes spurred institutional interest and contributed to a surge in volumes.    In 2026, we expect to see continued development of institutional use cases, including interoperability between blockchains, improvements to intraday liquidity management and the emergence of cross-currency collateral transfers.    At the current juncture, stablecoin use cases primarily serve retail and remittance businesses. Adoption in wholesale FX is likely to remain limited in the near term, given the enormous size of the global FX market, with $9.6 trillion being exchanged every day, stablecoins could only play a niche role today.   Moreover, the vast majority of stablecoins (99%) are US dollar-pegged and the current landscape therefore lacks sufficient diversity to meaningfully support broader FX market activity. In addition, near-instant settlement on blockchain does not yet provide the liquidity efficiency of payment-versus-payment (PvP) models.    Beyond 2026, we expect to see hybrid models evolve, where tokenised assets and stablecoins complement, rather than replace, trusted settlement networks.   Melissa Stevenson, head of FX product management, ION   Increased regulatory clarity in the US and Europe over stablecoins will spur more confidence and acceptance for commercial use. The US GENIUS Act and the EU’s MiCA framework will address concerns about compliance and risk, allowing mainstream financial institutions and retailers to integrate stablecoins into their operations.   Traditional financial players are actively partnering with crypto infrastructure providers. Firms like Mastercard and Circle are expanding partnerships to enable stablecoin settlement, while Morgan Stanley is planning to launch cryptocurrency trading for e-trade customers. In Europe, a consortium of nine major banks plans to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin in the second half of 2026.   There is also a continued focus on cross-border payments, with stablecoins expected to gain more widespread adoption as they offer faster, cheaper settlement compared to legacy banking systems like SWIFT.   At the same time, retailers will continue to explore acceptance of stablecoin payments as a way to bypass the high fees associated with card networks and to improve cash flow management through faster settlement. Finally, stablecoins are increasingly seen as a substitute for both crypto and traditional fiat. They will continue to grow as an acceptable medium over the very volatile crypto market and traditional fiat money, enabling transparent, predictable, and faster transactions that unpredictable cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin cannot offer for everyday needs.   The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: Post-trade innovation appeared first on The TRADE.

Hina Joshi, digital assets sales director, TP ICAP    2026 will see stablecoins graduate from experimental crypto tools to core institutional plumbing. Their ability to deliver 24/7 real-time value transfer will reshape how institutions manage liquidity and capital efficiency.   Corporates will increasingly recognise stablecoins’ transformational potential, and many will begin using them to move funds instantly across markets and time zones. Treasurers will optimise working capital in real time and accelerate trade settlement while reducing credit risk and FX friction. Meanwhile, global banks are set to deepen their roles as issuers, custodians, liquidity providers and enablers of stablecoin based treasury and payment solutions. Recent US legislation, like the Genius Act, is also likely to catalyse a fresh wave of corporate issuers.   While dollar-denominated stablecoins will continue to dominate, the global regulatory response is accelerating. Many jurisdictions worldwide are re-evaluating their digital currency strategies and developing frameworks to support domestic stablecoins.   As this unfolds, the biggest challenge will be fragmentation in the stablecoin ecosystem caused by differing blockchains, multiple issuers, custodians and exchanges, and inconsistent regulations. The defining theme for 2026 will be addressing that fragmentation through unified, consistent global standards.   By the end of 2026, stablecoins will be embedded in institutional finance rather than confined to crypto use cases.   Jenna Wright, managing director of digital assets, LMAX Group    Next year could be the time when traditional finance and digital assets finally collide at scale.   Institutional participation is accelerating, regulatory guardrails are taking shape, and markets are shifting toward a digitised, always-on model. We’re past the experimentation phase: firms are now building disciplined allocation frameworks and demanding the same governance, auditability and risk controls they expect in traditional markets.   The real structural break is the rise of stablecoins as a core rail for cross-market fungibility. We are entering a major S-curve adoption phase. Stablecoin integration will accelerate capital markets activity, with those issued by banks and other major financial institutions likely to be the primary driver. The market should expect a survival-of-the-fittest dynamic, narrowing institutional focus to a handful of regulated issuers.     As markets mature, the prospect of continuous capital markets, where assets are fungible and interchangeable, is becoming increasingly realistic. The adoption of stablecoins and tokenised money-market funds is creating genuine connectivity, reinforced by the first wave of institutional-grade tokenised infrastructure moving from pilots to production. This evolution is accelerating digital asset uptake and setting the stage for a technology-driven, 24/7 financial system.  James Butterfill, head of research, CoinShares   The most important trend in 2026 will be the normalisation of digital assets as they become embedded in global financial infrastructure. After a decade of experimentation, crypto is no longer a parallel system, it is becoming the underlying plumbing. The macro backdrop will still matter, with Bitcoin responding to shifts in real yields and the pace of Fed easing, but the decisive force of the next 12 months is structural adoption rather than liquidity alone.      Stablecoins will accelerate this shift as payment companies, banks and corporates roll out production-grade settlement rails. Tokenised Treasuries and money-market funds will expand at scale, transforming how yield-bearing products are distributed and settling value 24/7 across public blockchains. Bitcoin will continue to institutionalise, benefiting from ETFs, options markets, and a global move toward a more multipolar currency system that increases demand for non-sovereign stores of value.      This convergence, public blockchains integrating with regulated market structure, marks the transition from crypto as an asset class to crypto as infrastructure. Next year will be the year this becomes visible: not through hype cycles, but through financial products, payment flows and corporate balance sheets quietly migrating on-chain.   Martin Gaspar, senior crypto research associate, FalconX   As we move into 2026, the industry will benefit from a new level of regulatory clarity through practical market-structure frameworks, defined stablecoin policy, and clearer treatment of tokenised instruments. A global push for standardised, cross-border rules will be a major catalyst for true market maturity.    One particularly noteworthy piece of legislation is the proposed market structure bill in the US. Among other things, the bill would allow digital assets to operate under defined market obligations – capital, risk controls, reporting, and custody standards that mirror that of traditional markets. For institutional firms, the framework could materially reduce legal ambiguity and effectively transform crypto into an asset class that can be reliably integrated into existing trading, asset management, and lending use cases.    The story in 2026 is likely to be less about whether institutions enter digital assets and rather more about how they enter the market and the pace at which they can deploy. We’re going to see a greater number of traditional financial institutions formally step into the market. An offshoot of this trendline will be growing sophistication of regulated products, such as ETFs, which will offer more complex strategies to allow institutions to move in size efficiently.   Brooks Dudley, head of digital assets sales, Marex  The recent launches of SGX’s perpetual futures product and Cboe’s continuous futures products signify a maturing of institutional crypto trading. The bulk of crypto derivatives volumes has historically been in perpetual futures, and so it makes sense that institutional demand is now bringing this product into a regulated framework. These product launches, as well as the upcoming launch of perpetual futures on CME in 2026, onshore access to continuous trading with the same transparency, operational standards, and risk management frameworks as traditional listed derivatives. We expect that this will further drive crypto derivatives volumes in the coming year.  Brandon Mulvihill, chief executive and co-founder, Crossover Markets  Over the next 12 months, crypto trading is poised to expedite a fungible market structure that separates custody, clearing, and execution, and which more closely mirrors established institutional asset classes. For the first time, a true inter-dealer ecosystem is emerging alongside the retail-originated, vertically integrated exchange model that has long defined digital assets. This shift is being propelled by sustained institutional participation, the entrance of prime brokers and custodians with strong balance sheets, and recent periods of market stress that highlighted the limitations of vertically integrated exchanges.  October’s dislocation event was particularly instructive: several major market makers observed that certain exchanges experienced outages and other performance issues, highlighting the demand for execution-only venues like CROSSx to serve a primary destination for price discover and risk transfer. This move, coupled by Amazon’s crash days later accelerated a “flight to resilience,” at pace not previously seen.   As more institutions adopt prime brokerage and clearing relationships, liquidity will increasingly migrate toward interoperable, execution-only platforms. The result is a more robust and transparent institutional market characterised by venue specialisation, improved risk segmentation, and a healthier distribution of liquidity across participants.  Ali Celiker, founder and co-chief executive of BPX Digital Securities Marketplace    As we enter 2026, the digital assets landscape is shifting from experimentation to execution. For the UK, this year marks a turning point. After a decade of incremental adoption by financial institutions, legislation and regulation are creating conditions for large-scale uptake of digital securities and digital money.    Measures such as the Digital Assets Bill, the Property (Digital Assets) framework, and the Bank of England/FCA Digital Securities Sandbox now provide a clear environment for issuing, trading, and settling tokenised securities. The UK’s regulatory approach to stablecoins, supported by wider market acceptance, is strengthening confidence in on-chain payment instruments. Government willingness to transact on-chain, shown through the Digital Gilt pilot, is accelerating engagement.    In 2026, asset managers, banks, and corporates will move from proofs of concept to real-value activity. Tokenised funds, digital gilts, and blockchain-settled repo transactions will form part of market infrastructure. The benefits are clear: improved accessibility, faster settlement, reduced operational risk, and enhanced transparency, supporting liquidity.    This year, we expect the UK to position itself as a leader in digital capital markets, moving from promise to practice and laying the foundation for a tokenised financial system.    The post The TRADE predictions series 2026: The institutionalisation of digital assets appeared first on The TRADE.