The talks in Islamabad have beguin, according to reports from all sides.Notably, Iran has said it can't open Hormuz because of mines in the water. The US seems to be calling that bluff as 'several' US navy ships passed through. Trump said "We're now starting the process of clearing out Hormuz".I wonder if Iran will see that as an escalation as it evidently wasn't coordinated with them.One thing that worries me a bit is that Trump is highlighting that many tankers are headed to the US to pick up oil cargoes. He seems to be excited about that but the flipside of it is that it will drive US oil and gasoline prices higher and it won't take long. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices close above 100 day moving averagesIsreal wil announce its commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut timeCrude oil futures settles at $96.57. Down sharply on the weekUS March Budget deficit for March -$164.00 billion versus -$156.75 billion estimateIsraeli Broadcasting Authority Netanyahu approves every attack launched in BeirutBaker Hughes rig count -3 at 545Fed Nominee Warsh nomination hearing will be delayedMajor European indices close mixed. Higher for the week.Trump to the NY Post: Preparing military if Iran fails to comply in talksCNN. Trump had a "tense" call with Netanyahu on LebanonUMich preliminary April consumer sentiment 47.6 versus 52.0 expectedUS February factory orders 0.0% vs -0.2% expectedInternal rift threatens Iran’s unified front ahead of Islamabad summit - reportCanada March employment report 14.1K versus 15K estimateUS March CPY 3.3% y/y vs 3.3% expectedFed's Daly: If oil prices come back down, a rate cut is not out of the questioninvestingLive European session wrap: Calmer markets ahead of US-Iran peace talksIran does not offer any goodwill gestures on Strait of Hormuz crossing ahead of talksThe markets had a brief respite from the headlines from the Middle East with the release of the CPI and the later the Michigan Consumer Confidence. The latest US CPI report showed a sharp headline acceleration driven primarily by energy, while underlying inflation trends remained relatively contained. Headline CPI rose 0.9% m/m, in line with expectations but well above the prior 0.3%, lifting the year-over-year pace from 2.4%. The surge was almost entirely due to energy, with the index up 10.2% and gasoline prices jumping over 21% on the month as geopolitical tensions pushed crude higher. Importantly, gasoline prices remain roughly 40% above pre-war levels, suggesting there could still be additional pipeline pressure in the near term—though that would likely reverse over time if a sustained ceasefire holds.Beneath the surface, the core inflation data was more encouraging. Core CPI rose just 0.2% m/m for the second consecutive month, well below the 0.9% expected, with the year-over-year rate at 2.6% versus 2.7% expected. The supercore measure also eased to 0.18% m/m, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures—particularly outside of energy—are moderating. However, supercore on a year-over-year basis ticked higher to 3.14%, highlighting that progress remains uneven. Meanwhile, real weekly earnings declined by 0.9%, reversing the prior gain and pointing to some pressure on consumers.Overall, the report reflects a split narrative: a headline inflation spike driven by energy shocks, alongside a softer core backdrop that should offer some comfort to policymakers. Market reaction saw only modest USD weakness that quickly faded, with Fed pricing still indicating no rate moves this year. The key question going forward is whether the energy-driven rise spills over into broader inflation or proves temporary if geopolitical tensions ease.Later, a report from the University of Michigan on consumer confidence came in much weaker (at record low levels) due to the spillover impact from the war and the rise in gasoline prices. The preliminary April consumer sentiment index fell sharply to 47.6 from 53.3, well below the 52.0 estimate and marking the lowest reading on record. The decline was broad-based, with current conditions dropping to 50.1 and expectations falling to 46.1, as consumers across all demographics reported worsening views. The deterioration is largely tied to the Iran conflict and the surge in gasoline prices, which have jumped to around $4.15 nationally from $2.89 pre-war, weighing heavily on perceptions of personal finances, buying conditions, and the overall economic outlook.Inflation expectations also moved higher, adding to concerns. One-year expectations surged to 4.8% from 3.8%, the largest monthly increase in a year, while five-year expectations edged up to 3.4%. Although long-term expectations remain relatively contained, the sharp rise in short-term expectations highlights growing anxiety about near-term price pressures. Overall, while sentiment surveys can be volatile, the drop reflects a meaningful hit to consumer confidence driven by higher prices and uncertainty, with potential for improvement if energy prices ease and geopolitical tensions subsideNorth of the American's border, Canada’s March employment report showed modest improvement, with jobs rising by 14.1K, roughly in line with expectations and a rebound from the sharp -83.9K decline the prior month, while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7% (slightly better than the 6.8% expected). The gains were driven by part-time employment (+15.2K), while full-time jobs were little changed, signaling a labor market that is stabilizing but still lacking strong momentum. Sector data was mixed, with gains in “other services” and natural resources offset by declines in finance and real estate, while on a year-over-year basis health care led job growth and manufacturing lagged. Wage growth picked up to 4.7% YoY—the strongest since late 2024—highlighting persistent inflation pressures despite softer hiring trends. Regionally, results were uneven, with weakness in British Columbia and steady conditions in Ontario, while provinces like Manitoba and Saskatchewan showed strength. Overall, the report suggests a labor market that is holding together after early-year weakness, with elevated unemployment reflecting slower hiring rather than layoffs, and firm wages keeping inflation concerns in play.Geopolitical developments in the Middle East this week were largely about positioning ahead of upcoming ceasefire and peace talks between Iran and U.S. delegates. Expectations are not for a sweeping resolution, but rather incremental progress—namely, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Following the 14-day truce announced late Tuesday, a limited number of ships briefly transited the Strait, but renewed Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon led to another shutdown. However, Israel now appears to be aligning with a ceasefire framework, helping pave the way for this weekend’s negotiations and raising cautious optimism for progress.Markets responded positively to the de-escalation tone, particularly after President Trump stepped back from earlier rhetoric about “total annihilation” in his Easter Sunday message. U.S. equities rallied strongly, with the S&P 500 rising close to 4% and the Nasdaq gaining 4.68% on the week. Oil prices reflected easing supply fears, dropping nearly 15% as traders priced in the potential for improved flow through the Strait. In FX, the USD weakened broadly, with gains seen across most major currencies: EUR +1.82%, GBP +2.04%, CHF +1.38%, CAD +0.69%, AUD +2.53%, and NZD +2.69%, while the JPY was the lone exception, slipping modestly by -0.16% against the dollar. Overall, the tone shifted toward cautious optimism, with markets leaning on the idea that tensions may ease, even if only gradually.As we head into the new week, much will depend on the weekend news and hopes for more peace talks with the Strait of Hormuz open. It that can be done, it would be a step toward a lower oil prices and with hopes, a lower potential inflation environmen. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major stock indices were mixed in trading today with the Dow industrial average and S&P index falling, but the NASDAQ index rising. While the indices were higher on the week with the broader S&P and NASDAQ indices closing above their 100 day moving averages. The Dow industrial average trading above its 100 day moving average yesterday and closed above that level, but fell back below the level in trading today.A look at the closing levels shows:Dow industrial average -269.23 points or -0.56% at 47916.57.S&P index -7.77 points or -0.11% at 6816.89.NASDAQ index +80.48 points or 0.35% at 22902.89.The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -5.72 points or -0.22% at 2630.58.For the trading week, each of the major indices had solid gains with the NASDAQ index leading the way:Dow industrial average rose 3.04%S&P index rose 3.56%NASDAQ index rose 4.68%Russell 2000 rose 3.97%For the week, there are a number of large-cap stocks which rose by over 10%.Nebius NV – 33.15% Intel – 23.82% SanDisk – 21.41% Lam Research – 20.70% Marvell – 19.87% Broadcom – 18.13% Western Digital – 16.43% Arista Networks – 16.36% Corning – 15.81% Micron – 14.84% Amazon.com – 13.64% Vertiv Holdings Co – 12.98% AMD – 12.66% ASML ADR – 12.19% Eaton – 11.61% Ciena Corp – 10.74% Shake Shack Inc – 10.39% GE Vernova LLC – 10.30% SharkNinja – 10.30% Caterpillar – 10.24% Texas Instruments – 10.19%? Intel (+23.82%) Intel's recent surge was triggered by three major catalysts: a $14.2B buyback of Apollo's stake in its Ireland fabrication facility, the successful ramp of its 18A (1.8nm-class) process node to high-volume manufacturing, and strong demand signals from CEO Lip-Bu Tan. The stock is now up roughly 240% from its 52-week low, which was reached in April 2025 when tariff fears and a leadership vacuum had crushed the stock. TECHi®? SanDisk (+21.41%) SanDisk rose roughly 9% on Thursday after an analyst raised his price target on the stock, with shares climbing again Friday. Charles Schwab The recently spun-off storage company has benefited from broader semiconductor sector momentum.? Lam Research (+20.70%) BofA named Lam Research one of its top semiconductor picks for 2026. The company's revenue in its last reported quarter increased 28% year over year to $5.32 billion, while earnings jumped 46%. Yahoo Finance As a key maker of chipmaking equipment, it benefits directly from the memory capex cycle driven by AI demand.? Marvell (+19.87%) Marvell Technology was among the semiconductor leaders this week, rallying significantly in individual sessions as it was identified as a breakout signal leader. www.marketshost.com Marvell is a key player in AI networking and custom silicon for hyperscalers.? Broadcom (+18.13%) Broadcom climbed nearly 5% on Wednesday's ceasefire rally alone. CNBC More broadly, Broadcom's networking and ASIC businesses make it a core AI infrastructure investment, with analysts projecting its semiconductor revenue could triple to more than $100 billion by 2027. WTOPTV? Western Digital (+16.43%) & Micron (+14.84%) Both are memory/storage giants riding the AI-driven data center buildout. Micron Technology gained more than 7% on Wednesday alone CNBC as the Iran ceasefire reduced fears of supply chain disruptions. Micron has a $20B capex budget this fiscal year to meet soaring AI memory demand.? Arista Networks (+16.36%) Arista is a leading provider of cloud networking gear for hyperscale data centers. It has been a consistent beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout as companies like Meta and Microsoft expand their data center footprints.? Corning (+15.81%) Corning was among the stocks hitting intraday record highs this week Yahoo Finance as the rally broadened beyond pure semiconductors into industrial and materials names. Corning supplies optical fiber and display glass with growing AI/data center applications.? Amazon (+13.64%) Amazon's AWS cloud segment is a major buyer of AI chips and data center infrastructure. The broader tech/AI rally, combined with Iran ceasefire relief on energy costs, lifted the stock.? AMD (+12.66%) AMD announced a multiyear deal to supply Meta with GPU units for AI data centers, demonstrating conviction in AMD's chips. The upcoming Instinct MI450X next-generation AI accelerator is slated for release in late 2026. WTOPTV? ASML ADR (+12.19%) ASML controls most of the global photolithography market and has an absolute monopoly on EUV photolithography, necessary for fabricating the most advanced semiconductor chips. NerdWallet With earnings due next week, investors are positioning ahead of results. ASML climbed 1.5% or more on Friday alone following TSMC's strong revenue report. Charles Schwab? Eaton (+11.61%) & GE Vernova (+10.30%) Both are power infrastructure plays that benefit from the massive electricity demand driven by AI data centers. The intraday record-high list this week spread into industrial names, including electrical components and equipment companies. Yahoo Finance? Vertiv Holdings (+12.98%) Vertiv makes power management and cooling systems for data centers — a direct beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending as data centers require more sophisticated thermal and power solutions.? Ciena Corp (+10.74%) Ciena was identified as one of the semiconductor/networking names breaking out on its own merits this week. www.marketshost.com It supplies optical networking equipment heavily used in AI data center interconnects.? Caterpillar (+10.24%) & Texas Instruments (+10.19%) Both are industrials/analog chip plays. Caterpillar benefits from infrastructure and construction activity, while TI's analog chips are embedded in everything from industrial equipment to EVs. The week's rally extended notably into industrial and infrastructure-related names. Yahoo FinanceBottom line: This was primarily a relief rally driven by the US-Iran ceasefire removing immediate supply chain and energy fears, amplified by strong TSMC data validating AI chip demand, and punctuated by Intel's specific turnaround story. The breadth of the move — from chip equipment makers to industrials — suggests broader market repositioning after weeks of geopolitical pressure This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Iranian officials land at Nur Khan Airbase in Islamabad under Pakistan’s Air Force escort ahead of peace talks, two Pakistani sources involved in talks Iranian delegation led by Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf arrived in Islamabad ahead of peace talks with U.S. Iran says talks with U.S. to begin if “preconditions are accepted” – Iranian media Iranian media says Iran’s delegation includes foreign minister, defence council secretary, central bank governor and several parliament membersThe U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, and including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkopf are expected to arrive shortly. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD is heading into the close trading near the lower end of a well-defined swing-area ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). This zone has repeatedly capped upside attempts over the past six or so weeks, making it a key barometer for buyer conviction. Each test has attracted sellers, but the fact that the pair is once again pressing into the lower bound of that range suggests buyers are not backing down. If the price can build momentum and extend above the top of this ceiling area, it would signal a meaningful shift in control, opening the door for a broader upside extension as trapped shorts are forced to cover and momentum traders re-engage.On the downside, the 100- and 200-day moving averages—clustered between 1.3414 and 1.3424—serve as a critical support zone. This area represents a classic “line in the sand” where buyers have recently leaned to defend the broader bullish bias. A move below that cluster would not only break a key technical floor but also tilt the short-term bias back in favor of the sellers, likely leading to increased downside probing as confidence in the bullish structure erodes.Bottom line: The battle lines are clearly drawn. Resistance above at 1.34708–1.3488 defines the upside breakout zone, while support below at the 100- and 200-day moving averages defines the risk for buyers. With price squeezed between these levels, the pair is coiling into the close, and the next directional move will likely be driven by weekend headlines and how traders respond in the early hours of Monday trading. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fars is reporting that Israel will announce it's commitment to a ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut time (it is 10:15 PM now in Beirut). The announcement gives a path to peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend...WHat to expect?The U.S. position, led by JD Vance, is centered on security and stability. The primary goal is to eliminate any pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, which means strict limits—or potentially a halt—to uranium enrichment, backed by strong verification and inspection measures. The U.S. is also pushing for the reopening and protection of the Strait of Hormuz to ensure steady global oil flows, along with broader de-escalation across the region, including curbs on Iran-backed proxy activity. At its core, the U.S. is seeking a framework that reduces military threats, stabilizes energy markets, and provides long-term security assurances.Iran’s position, represented by Abbas Araghchi, is focused on economic relief and sovereignty. The top priority is the lifting of sanctions—particularly those restricting oil exports and access to the global financial system. Iran also insists on maintaining its right to a civilian nuclear program, including uranium enrichment, while demanding an end to military pressure from the U.S. and its allies. Additionally, Iran is seeking recognition of its regional role and influence, along with firm guarantees against regime-change efforts. Overall, Iran is looking for a deal that restores economic stability while preserving its strategic autonomy.U.S. delegationJD Vance – leading the talks Steve Witkoff – key negotiator Jared Kushner – part of the diplomatic team Vance is the central figure and seen as the main face of the U.S. side in these negotiations. It is probably good Kushner and Witkoff are playing behind Vance this time. Iran delegationAbbas Araghchi – leading diplomat Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf – senior political figure It’s still unclear if military figures (IRGC) will attend.Pakistan (host & mediator) Led by the government of Shehbaz Sharif Pakistani officials act as go-betweens (proximity talks) rather than having both sides face each other directly How the talks are structured Held in Islamabad“Proximity talks” → U.S. and Iran sit in separate rooms Pakistan shuttles messages between both sidesBottom lineU.S.: Vance-led team (with Witkoff, Kushner)Iran: Araghchi + GhalibafPakistan: mediator, not a direct negotiating partyThis is a high-level but still cautious setup, reflecting how fragile trust is—especially with both sides not even sitting in the same room.Meanwhile, the troops are arriving with estimates of 1500 to 2000 troops arriving in coming days. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil is settling at $96.57. That is down $-1.30 or -1.33% on the day.For the week, the price is down $-16 or -14.29%. The price is also below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $102.87 and $103.57. The big catalyst was the announcement of a cease-fire and the potential for the re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz. Although, not fully open (it is virtually closed still), the market is discounting some sort of reopening soon). The June contract is trading at $89.13.The price low on February 26 came in at $63.81, just ahead of the war starting on February 28. The initial upside move pushed prices to a close of $71.02 on March 2, before momentum accelerated sharply. That surge over the next few days took the price to a high of $119.48 on March 9. A sharp correction followed, with the low on March 10 reaching $76.73, but buyers stepped back in and drove the price higher again, peaking at $117.62 earlier this week. Since then, the market has seen another pullback, with the low this week coming in at $91.05.Bottom line: The swings—from the mid-$60s to near $120 and back toward $90—underscore just how volatile and headline-driven this market has become. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month -$308 billion Federal budget deficit $164 billion versus $156.75 billion estimate. A year ago, the deficit was $161 billionDetails:Fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit $1.169 trillion versus $1.307 trillion in 2025. Down 11% YoYMarch Net customs receipts and $22.16 billionBudget outlays $549 billion versus $528 billion in March 2025Receipt $385 billion, record for month of March, versus $368 billion in March 2025.Corporate refunds up 77%individual refunds up 9%Defense spending 3% higher compared to one year agoSome additional looks:War-related outlays, such as for replenishing weapons ​inventories, would come in later months.Customs duty ​collections softened in the month following the U.S. Supreme ‌Court's ⁠annulment of President Donald Trump's broadest global tariffs imposed under an emergency law.Customs receipts totaled $22.2 billion in March, down from $26.6 billion in February and monthly ​totals in ​the low $30 ⁠billion range late last year, but up from $8.2 billion in March 2025.After accounting for calendar-related ⁠adjustments ​of benefit payments, the March ​deficit would have been $250 billion, up $9 billion or 4% from ​March 2025.This also out, Trump plans to request $98 billion in supplemental funds for Iran war and more. Earlier reports indicating the Pentagon has discussed a request of over $200 billion tied to war-related operations. However, President Donald Trump has not formally submitted that request to Congress, leaving uncertainty around the final size and timing. Earlier expectations had been closer to $50 billion, but escalating costs—estimated at over $11 billion in just the first week—have raised the potential price tag significantly. This may be that number. The lack of a formal request keeps markets in a wait-and-see mode, particularly as fiscal implications could influence yields, risk sentiment, and the USD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority is reporting that PM Netanyahu approves every attack launched in Beiriut (Lebanon).Pres. Trump is trying to get Israel and Netanyahu stop the attacks in Lebanon on Hezbollah. According to this report if there are additional tariffs, the buck stops at Netanyahu (and threatens the peace process).As we head into the weekend, stocks are giving back earlier gains, with both the Dow and S&P slipping into negative territory. The Dow is down -0.63% and the S&P is lower by -0.19%. The NASDAQ is still holding modest gains of +0.17%, but well off its session highs where it had been up 189 points. Technically, the index has also moved back below its 100-day moving average at 22,900.37 and currently trades around 22,873, tilting the near-term bias more to the downside technically. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is the Strait of Hormuz and then there is domestic production. In the current week, the Baker Hughes rig count fell -3 at 545. Looking at the pieces:Oil rigs aree unchanged at 411Natural Gas is down -3 at 127.Total rigs -3 at 545.Crude oil is is trading up $0.57 at $98.45. However for the week, the price is down $-13.78 or -12.31%Looking at the hourly chart, the swing area and falling 100 and 200 hour MAs are providing upside resistance between 101.14 to 103.57. Stay below keeps the sellers in play/control in the short term. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Fed nominee Kevin Warsh nomination hearing scheduled for next week is to be delayed. This is according to the New York Post. No new hearing date scheduled yet Delay due to Senate Banking Committee awaiting required paperwork Committee must give at least one week’s notice before holding the hearing Deadline to proceed as planned was missed (paperwork not submitted in time) Issue described as a “paperwork delay” tied to complex financial disclosures Complexity stems from Warsh’s high net worth Similar delay previously occurred with SEC Chair Paul Atkin Kevin Warsh married to billionaire heiress Jane Lauder (≈$1.9B net worth) Past disclosures showed ~1,200 financial assets, mostly tied to his wife Worked 15 years at Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller) after leaving the FedSen. Thom Tillis has pledged to block any of Trump’s Fed chair nominees until the investigation into Jerome Powell is resolved, adding a key political hurdle to the process. At the same time, a US district judge rejected the administration’s request to revisit subpoenas targeting the Fed and Powell, though US Attorney Jeanine Pirro plans to appeal. Despite these challenges, NEC Director Kevin Hassett said he remains highly confident Kevin Warsh will ultimately become Fed chair. In the meantime, Powell indicated he would serve as “chairman pro tem” if no successor is confirmed by May 15 and plans to stay on the board until the investigation concludes, with the possibility of remaining as a governor through 2028. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The gains were led by Italy's FTSE MIB which is closing just below its all-time high price reached back to 2000 at 48909.04.Spain's Ibex close at 18204.31, which is getting close to its all-time high close of 18573.83. A look at the daily closes showsGerman DAX (DEU40): -0.01% France's CAC 40 (CAC40): +0.17% UK's FTSE 100 (UKX): -0.03% Spain's IBEX 35 (IBC): +0.55% Italy's FTSE MIB (FTMIB): +0.59%for the trading week, the indices are all higher: German DAX, +2.74%France's CAC, +3.73%.UK's FTSE 100 +1.57%Spain's Ibex, +3.69%Italy's FTSE MIB, +4.35% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The S&P index has dipped into negative territory with the price is now down 5 points or -0.08% at 6819.25. The low price reached 6818.42. The NASDAQ index is still higher by 66 points or 0.29% but trading at session lows. The Dow industrial average is down 223 points or -0.47%.The S&P index is still above its 100 day moving average at 6804, while the NASDAQ index is back below its 100 day moving average at 22900.53. The S&P has been up for 7 days in a row.Some losers include:Snowflake (SNOW): -8.21% Palo Alto Networks (PANW): -7.38% Zoom Video (ZM): -6.72% Figma (FIG): -5.97% Cadence Design (CDNS): -5.38% Intuit (INTU): -5.24% CrowdStrike (CRWD): -4.48% Synopsys (SNPS): -3.89% Salesforce (CRM): -3.84%Some of the winners today:Nebius NV (NBIS): +6.89% Super Micro Computer (SMCI): +6.42% Marvell (MRVL): +6.12% Broadcom (AVGO): +4.72% First Solar (FSLR): +3.79% AMD (AMD): +3.68% Ciena Corp (CIEN): +3.14% Barrick Mining (B): +2.46% Vertiv Holdings (VRT): +2.36% NVIDIA (NVDA): +2.36% GE Vernova (GEV): +2.23% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

In an interview with the New York PostPresident Donald Trump said US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” in case strikes on Iran resume Warned military action will follow if peace talks fail Said outcome of negotiations should be known within ~24 hours Peace talks taking place in Pakistan (Islamabad) following a two-week cease-fire US delegation includes JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner Iran expected to be represented by Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf US demands include: Hand over ~1,000 pounds of enriched uranium Keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping End support for regional proxy groups Address ballistic missile program Iran maintains it has a right to enrich uranium Iran seeking lifting of US sanctions Strait of Hormuz only partially reopened; limited ship traffic since cease-fire Trump says reopening the strait is a critical condition for any deal Trump expressed distrust of Iran, citing conflicting statements on nuclear intentionsThe clock is ticking on this one. The U.S. is heading into talks with Iran, but at the same time, Trump is making it clear the military option is loaded and ready to go if things fall apart. The key sticking points are uranium, the Strait of Hormuz, and broader security issues, and there’s still a wide gap between the two sides. So while there is a cease-fire and negotiations are underway (for 2-weeks or so they say), the market should understand this is far from resolved — and the next 24 hours could quickly shift the story back toward escalation if a deal isn’t reached. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The geopolitical tension continues with reports that Trump had a tense call with Israel Netanyahu on Lebanon. Trump wants Israel to slow down its bombings on Lebanon while negotiations for a cease-fire continue with Iran. Netanyahu does not want to stop the bombing. In other geopolitical news:Iran also wants the release of blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations.Kuwait says Iranian attacks overnight targeted National Guard facilities, caused injuries to a number of personnel, dealt with a total of 7 drone incursions in the last 24 hours.Iranian military said that his forces had their finger on the trigger and remain fully ready due to the Israeli and the US failure to keep to their commitments of the ceasefire.Meanwhile VP Vance warned Iran that Washington is “willing to extend the open hand” in this weekend’s negotiations but warned Tehran not to “try to play us.”:Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem urged Lebanese officials to stop what he called “free concessions” to Israel, vowing the group’s resistance would continue “until the last breath.” He framed the conflict as a unified national effort and dismissed Israeli threats as ineffective, while warning that any escalation—especially large troop deployments—would lead to heavy losses. The price of crude oil is trading up $0.68 at $98.58. Although that is well off the high price of $117.63 reached on Tuesday's trade, the price remains stubbornly near the $100 level. Just prior to the war starting on February 28, the low price reached $63.60. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

In an unusual post on TruthSocial, Pres. Trump says: Shares of Palantir reached a new low going back to June 2025 today at $122.68. The price is now trading at $128.20. The high reached $129.17.It is great Trump has the time to post on his stock picks, with all the other stuff going. Amazing. Like never seen before. /sInsider trading used to be a no-no, but it is becoming more and more acceptable. Go figure.Bud Fox is on it. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's stock market heatmap reveals a notable upswing in the semiconductor sector, with major players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) leading the charge. Nvidia is up by 2.22% and Broadcom by an impressive 5.45%, signaling strong investor confidence in this high-tech segment. Meanwhile, consumer cyclicals also see gains, particularly with Amazon (AMZN) increasing by 2.33%, reflecting positive sentiment in retail dynamics.Conversely, the consumer defensive sector faces challenges, with Walmart (WMT) down by 1.49% and Costco (COST) sliding 2.33%. These figures suggest possible concerns over consumer spending or supply chain pressures affecting staple goods.In the communication services sector, Google (GOOGL) maintains a modest rise of 0.27%, while Meta (META) outpaces with a 1.07% increase, showcasing continued resilience in digital advertising and social media.Market Mood and TrendsThe overall market vibe appears optimistic with selective caution. The strong performance in semiconductors may be driven by technological advancements and increased demand for high-performance computing. On the other hand, the mixed outcomes in other areas, such as the flat movement in financials, underscore varying investor priorities and uncertainties.Investors seem responsive to tech-driven growth opportunities while exercising prudence in sectors closely tied to consumer spendings, such as consumer defensives and healthcare.Strategic RecommendationsWith semiconductors showcasing robust growth, investors may consider increasing exposure to this sector while staying informed on tech developments that could influence market dynamics. Adding key players like Nvidia and Broadcom to portfolios could capitalize on continued industry momentum.Monitoring communication services is also prudent, as the sector holds robust potential for revenue growth through digital ad spending and evolving online platforms. Allocating investments towards Google and Meta might be beneficial for those seeking long-term growth and innovation.Conversely, keeping an eye on sectors exhibiting volatility, such as consumer defensives, could help mitigate risks. A diversified approach may be prudent to weather potential fluctuations across industries.For more profound insights and real-time updates, visit InvestingLive.com and stay ahead in navigating today’s complex market landscape. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The EURUSD is pushing to a new session high following weaker-than-expected data from the University of Michigan. Sentiment dropped to a fresh record low at 47.6 (vs 52.0 expected), while 1-year inflation expectations jumped sharply to 4.8% from 3.8%. Ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict are clearly weighing on consumer confidence and shaping the inflation outlook.From a technical perspective, the move higher is now testing an important zone. On the 4-hour chart, price is extending into a swing area between 1.1726 and 1.1741. Adding to that importance, the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range comes in at 1.17443, creating a key confluence area.If buyers can push and hold above that zone, the next upside targets come into focus between 1.1765 and 1.1778—another swing area that could act as the next ceiling.On the downside, today’s low briefly dipped below the 100-day moving average at 1.1688, but importantly held above the 200-day moving average at 1.1671. Those moving averages remain key barometers for bias. Holding above and rotating higher keeps buyers more in control and tilts the bias to the upside.Key levels to watch:Upside targets: 1.1726–1.1741 → 1.17443 (50% midpoint) → 1.1765–1.1778 Support/risk: 100-day MA at 1.1688, then 200-day MA at 1.1671 Bottom line: Momentum has shifted back to the upside on weaker sentiment data. Staying above the 100/200-day MAs keeps buyers in control, with a break above 1.1744 opening the door for further gains. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior month 53.3Consumer Sentiment 47.6 vs 52.0 estimate. Worst on record. Year on year -8.8%Current conditions 50.1 versus 55.8 last month.Year on year -16.2%Expectations and 46.1 versus 51.7 last month. Year on Year -2.5%1 year inflation expectations 4.8% versus 3.8% last month5 year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.2% last monthNeedless to say, the war in Iran is having its impact on the survey data. The data is the worst on record.When you go to war. When gas prices spike higher ($4.15 is the National average now - from $2.89 before the war). When the end to the war is unknown, the consumer sentiment suffers.Inflation is simply too high and going higher. 2% target is now a long way away and with it, go hopes even for a Warsh cut when he takes over the Fed. Having said that, survey data can be very fickle and move around. Nevertheless, the confidence decline is real, and people know it by going to the gas pump. If this price at the pump is to go back down, it will be "happy days again", but until then the consumer will worry.If there is any bright spot, the 5 year inflation expectation only moved up to 3.4% from 3.2%. The 1-year inflation expectation was not so good with a 1% jump to 4.8%.Comments from Director Joanne Hsu:Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April. Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. Buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened, again on the basis of high prices. Open ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy. Note that 98% of interviews were completed prior to the April 7th announcement of a temporary cease-fire. Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated.Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 3.8% in March to 4.8% this month, the largest one-month increase since April 2025 (see chart, black dashed line and black circle). The current reading exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations ticked up from 3.2% last month to 3.4% this month, the highest reading since November 2025. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019 and 2020, they were consistently below 2.8%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.1%Ex-transport +1.2% vs +0.4% prior (revised to +0.5%)Revisions to durable goods orders:Orders -1.3% vs -1.4% prelimEx-transport +0.9% vs +0.8% prelimCapital goods orders nondefense ex-air +0.7% vs +0.6% prelimCapital goods shipments nondefense ex-air +1.4% vs +1.3% prelimThis is a solid report with the ex-transport number looking particularly good, but it's a third-tier economic indicator.The U.S. factory orders report, officially known as the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report, is published monthly by the Census Bureau, typically about five weeks after the reference month. It provides a comprehensive look at demand across the entire manufacturing sector, covering both durable and non-durable goods. The report is closely watched by economists and market participants as a gauge of industrial activity and business investment trends.One important feature of the factory orders report is that it includes revisions to the advance durable goods data released about two weeks earlier. The preliminary durable goods figures often attract significant market attention on their own, but the factory orders release refines those estimates with more complete survey responses. This means traders and analysts revisit their initial assessments once the revised numbers are in hand, particularly for the volatile transportation and defense categories.The report breaks down new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories, offering a layered view of manufacturing momentum. Core capital goods orders — excluding aircraft and defense — are especially valued as a proxy for business spending plans.In recent years the report has reflected the broader push-and-pull of post-pandemic normalization. Factory orders surged through much of 2021 and 2022 as supply chains strained to meet reopening demand, then moderated as interest rate hikes cooled goods spending. Through 2024 and into early 2025, readings were mixed, with periodic boosts from large aircraft and defense contracts offsetting softer demand in categories like machinery and primary metals, leaving the manufacturing sector in a holding pattern as businesses navigated an uncertain trade and policy environment. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.