Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 12When you thought things were going to be straightforward at least until NFP, you were wrong.Fed speak can have immense effects after Rate Decisions, as seen with today's action.Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid, the two dissenters from Wednesday's decision, expressed their views today, and it seems that markets may have caught somewhat of a cold. Their remarks—highlighting that inflation remains too high while the labor market flashes no immediate warning signs—provide a fair argument against rushing into further cuts, at least until the situation deteriorates or clarity improves.This echoes Chair Powell’s own comments during his speech, where he noted the Fed was "driving blind" due to data delays and suggested that rates are now entering "the high end of the neutral range."When markets perceive barriers to the 2026 cutting cycle, the outlook for risk assets inevitably darkens.Since the end of the morning session, markets across asset classes have bled, sapping the good mood from the post-cut rally. The Dow Jones, which marked fresh all-time highs at the open, is now retesting its preceding highs—so there is still hope for a push higher if support holds.Everything will now depend on next week, the final week of true action before year-end trading slows to a crawl.Before we move to the key performance charts of the session, Trump made a very recent remark on his new favorite participant to replace Powell in May 2026. Kevin Warsh, an ex-Fed Governor, could be a more reassuring alternative for the title as Wall Street expressed their discontent about the other Kevin (Hassett). Read More:From the FOMC to NFP and CPI – Markets Weekly OutlookDow Jones Down 0.7%, S&P 500 Slips 1.4% on Renewed AI Angst. Will Seasonality Come to the Rescue?Gold (XAU/USD) Price Outlook: 1% to All-Time Highs, getting Jealous of SilverCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets had been strolling their way in the regular post-FOMC way with Gold and the Dow loving their day before things turned sour.Look at the 10:00 A.M. huge swings in global assets. A good reminder to note underestimate Fed Speakers, particularly influential ones.A short list of who to keep your eyes on: Waller, Williams, Goolsbee, Paulson, Cook, Bowman and of Course, Powell.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 12 – Source: OANDA Labs A very chaotic and confusing day in FX today, with an initial continuation of the US Dollar selloff which quickly stopped and reversed as Fed Speak brought back some equilibrium for the Greenback. FX Traders might already be looking for the year to end. 2026 promises to be interesting with yields converging and surely a lot more of geopolitical madness.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The trading week ended, but Sunday carries heavy weight for APAC traders as major data releases will shape Monday's open.Sunday evening will turn the eyes towards Asia:Japan's Tankan Survey (18:50 ET) is the main focus, with the Large Manufacturer's Index and Outlook expected to be slightly higher – One of the main pieces of information before the Bank of Japan's Rate Decision.This is followed by China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales (21:00 ET). Retail Sales are expected to hold steady at 2.9% YoY, providing a crucial check on consumer health.Monday's session kicks off the new week with a bang, focusing on inflation in Canada. The early European session features Eurozone Industrial Production (05:00 A.M. ET).The North American Session will be dominated by central bank data:Canadian CPI (08:30 A.M. ET) is the most critical event of the day. The Core CPI YoY is expected at 2.9%, and a strong print may add to the pre-existing Hikes (hikes ?!) priced in the market since last Friday's Employment beat.Simultaneously, the US Empire State Manufacturing Index (08:30 A.M. ET) releasesKeep a close eye on Fed's Williams speech at 10:30 A.M. ET. One can never underestimate his influence.Safe Trades and a restful weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review – The Debasement Trade shines again after the Fed Cut Markets were salivating for the FOMC rate decision, and they got exactly what they wanted.The Fed delivered a highly expected 25 bps cut on Wednesday, taking rates from the 3.75%-4.00% range down to 3.50%-3.75%, officially shutting the door on the 4% policy rate era.While Chair Powell presented neutral remarks overall, investors interpreted them with optimism. The Dow Jones traded at new all-time highs in consecutive sessions, marking a strong shift higher. Its record price is now at 48,886.However, the rising tide did not lift all boats. The US Dollar took a huge hit following the cut, despite the lack of explicitly dovish signals and lower projections in 2026.Furthermore, the rotation flows that boosted the Dow came at a cost to the Nasdaq: since the cut, the tech-heavy index has dropped by 2%, with capital fleeing toward Industrial and traditional assets.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – December 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView But concerns remain, as seen throughout today's session and confirmed by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. He dissented against the cut, deeming it not urgent given that the labor situation is not dire and inflation remains way too high. He argued in favor of waiting for the inflation picture to clear before cutting further—fair remarks, considering the Federal Reserve has been "driving blind" following the month-and-a-half-long Bureau of Labor Statistics shutdown.Some profit-taking is also normal after a relentless "Everything Rally" (or Debasement Trade). The fall in the US Dollar combined with sizzling metals brings back echoes of early 2025 flows.Strong flows but not too surprising when considering how huge next week's data releases will be.The question now is whether sentiment can hold after today's reality check. Silver fell 4% in today's session right after reaching a record level of $65. Despite the drop, it is still closing the week up 6% and has surged 23% since the last week of November. zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart. December 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Discover More:Winners and Losers of the FOMC Rate Cut – Market OverviewGold (XAU/USD) Price Outlook: 1% to All-Time Highs, getting Jealous of SilverMarkets Flash Red After Fed's Goolsbee: Was the Post-Cut Rally a Trap?The Week Ahead – Major data is back for the USAsia Pacific Markets – Bank of Japan in focus Next week's action in APAC Markets will be quite interesting.The week will start on Sunday evening (in North America) with quite a lot of interesting economic data, between Manufacturing data from Japan, Retail Sales from Japan and a Business Survey from New Zealand.The week then officially commences with some PMI releases for Australia, more trade data for Japan on Tuesday and the Kiwi GDP on Wednesday (very important report).With all due respect to these (key) pieces of data, they will just be acting as Entrées for Thursday evening's Bank of Japan rate decision.High expectations for a hike have grown even higher in the past month, as the rout on the Yen has kept increasing despite JPY sellers taking somewhat of a breather last week. Closing the week around 156.00 despite Dollar weakness, the Bank of Japan is facing quite an important test.I invite every reader to check out this sweet detailed analysis ahead of the event to get ready. Expect USD/JPY to trade with sharp volatility.The key really will be whether the BoJ materializes some hawkish communications from their hike, if they actually provide one. The current pricing for the hike is around 75%.Europe and UK Markets – ECB Rate Decision, UK Employment & PPI supplemented by some PMIs Next week will also be big for Europe, particularly for the UK.Tuesday will start with their Employment numbers expected at +22K, releasing in the Tuesday overnight session at 2:00 A.M. and facing some important tests. The Bank of England now holds the highest interest rates of OECD nations and have about 60 bps of cuts priced in through 2026.The Pound actually was one of the best performers against the dollar these past few weeks and may stand on top for a moment, particularly if UK data comes in strong.Thursday will also be quite important for GBP traders as they will also get some inflation data, with the UK PPI and Retail Price Index reports. And I was about to forget the Bank of England rate decision, with a 25 bps cut largely expected.Euro traders will also be served, between rounds of PMI releases but most importantly, the final ECB rate decision for the year, also releasing Thursday.No change is expected, but as we conclude 2025, keep a close eye on their communication for 2026.North American Markets – US Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI make their comeback Nothing much for North American markets... Actually that's false.The US will get quite some attention after this week's cut, transitioning towards the return of live data.In the mix, November NFP data on December 16, CPI on December 18. Some individual reports will be released for the two quintessential releasesFor Canada, they will also be releasing their inflation data on Monday to start the North American week, before only awaiting a Macklem Speech on Tuesday around noon.Next week's calendar in two parts. Get ready for some volatile action! zoom_out_map zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Despite the ecstatic rallies around all assets, some notable divergences emerged across sectors in the Stock and global Markets.Fed's Goolsbee, a dissenter of the recent 25 bps cut, came in hot throughout several rounds of interviews earlier this morning, warning about the damaging effect of pre-emptive "Front-Loaded" cuts from the Federal Reserve.The first comments after FOMC Meetings are always essential for traders and investors to track, as they look to learn more about who voted, for what, and why. This becomes particularly interesting around this point of the cycle, where inflation and employment balance risks for the world's largest economy.In the past 30 minutes, all Markets that had rallied relentlessly have given up some of their strength, with a flash selloff in Gold to $4,300, Nasdaq falling to 2.00% on the session, the Dow Jones going negative after a strong open, while VIX (Stock Volatility Index) spiked up 8%. zoom_out_map VIX 15M Chart, December 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView A small dip-buying move is occurring, but the pace and volume of trades since 10:00 A.M. are indicative of something that could be brewing on the sidelines.As I am writing this, the selloff is continuing with all Indexes reaching new session lows.Broadcom got heavily targeted despite strong Q4 earnings, taking a 10% hit on the session. Still, the move by Google's Chip production partner does not explain how widespread the selloff has become. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:02 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView Concerning flows, but not too surprising: Reactions around asset classes had been similar to a dovish cue; however, some warnings could have been felt from the Dot Plot, and indications that not many ammunition points for cuts were left.The cut just wasn't as dovish as one. A reason why examining the US Dollar for indications of its continuation or reversal of descent could be a strong indication of Market flows as indicated in our post-FOMC reactions piece.A look at the current Market Flows zoom_out_map US Stock Indexes 10M Chart – Source: TradingView. December 12, 2025 The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are getting sold off very harshly.A more detailed US Market Outlook will be releasing soon so stay logged in!Cryptos are not surviving this zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – December 12, 2025 (11:11 ET). Source: FInviz Global Markets are flashing all around zoom_out_map Market Outlook with the S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD (11:08 ET – December 12, 2025) The move is widespread. And with US Treasuries and the US Dollar not rallying much, I wonder where the money is going.Market volatility can make a fool out of everyone. Our very recent Gold analysis is now looking quite different.Still, traders can find interesting levels to trade there, so go check it out.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As highlighted in our overnight session rewind, Gold has quickly breached above $4,300 and is now racing towards new all-time highs.The Fed's cutting cycle and overall 2025 US Exceptionalism from the Trump Administration have had a considerable effect on the demand for non-fiat assets, and Gold is the primary beneficiary of such demand.The financial world order since the early 2000s has been characterized by high demand for US Treasuries.As the US maintained higher rates relative to others, even during the Global Financial Crisis, and consequently recovered much more solidly than its OECD peers, it absorbed the flows from the entire globe. zoom_out_map US Debt holdings by Foreign Investors (Central Banks and others) – Source: St. Louis Fed Metals, on the other hand, were getting replaced by their yielding rivals - Treasuries.Some Countries, like Canada, have emptied their gold reserves, for example, Making Questionable decisions.However, as yields had been trending lower, particularly after the QE, demand for metals reformed again, and now, their attraction is without question. zoom_out_map Gold demand from 1992 to 2022 – Courtesy of Elements-VisualCapitalist. Government deficits are ever-increasing, even with a stable global economy, and the US seemingly cannot be as trustful of a global riches reserve, given the several diplomatic heatwaves provided by Donald Trump.Tariffs aren't the most welcomed policies if you want to retain buyers of your government bonds.Particularly when you're cutting rates.In any case, since reaching its COVID lows in March 2020 ($1,451), Gold is up close to 200%, and most of its gains have occurred since February 2024.However, what is grabbing Markets' attention is how strong the acceleration has been ongoing since August 2025 and Powell's Jackson Hole speech, which may have been a turning point for global Markets.From August: Silver (XAG) and other metals in focus as the Federal Reserve independance gets challenged – Silver was trading at $38 at that time.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe Gold analysis to get a closer look on the post-FOMC rebound as the Yellow metal aims to protect its throne. Discover:Winners and Losers of the FOMC Rate Cut – Market OverviewStocks rotation begins: Dow Jones leads the market while Nasdaq and Tech retreatMarkets Today: Gold Breaches $4300/oz, UK Economy Contracts, Equities Soar. DAX Breaks Bull Flag PatternGold (XAU/USD) Multi-Timeframe Analysis, Technical levels and Potential Price TargetsDaily Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart. December 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Our pre-FOMC Metals analysis pointed to a potential breakout in Gold after a triangle consolidation – And it is currently playing out.Bulls used the 50-Day Moving Average as support. Keep a close eye on it as it has been serving as loyal support throughout 2025.The rest will be to see if buyers can make the push beyond new highs.Up 3.75% in 3 sessions, momentum is gathering some heat despite some not-so-dovish 2026 Fed Cut projections – Until more data is served for Markets (Tuesday 16 - US NFP) not much can come to stop the rally.Metal buyers just wanted to see rates coming down, and they are getting served.Silver and its ongoing frenzy is dragging demand for such commodities higher.An interesting Chart: Silver to Gold Ratio zoom_out_map Silver to Gold Ratio – Monthly Chart. December 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView 4H Chart, Technical Levels and potential Price targets zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart. December 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView As indicated in our recent piece (link just above), a measured move higher (Yellow squares) could take prices anywhere to $4,500 to $4,575 if buyers manage to break recent highs.Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time High resistance $4,300 to $4,400$4,380 Current all-time HighsFib-Induced potential new ATH resistance $4,500 to $4,575Session highs $4,346 (and counting)Support LevelsHourly Pivot and Triangle top $4,200 to $4,24050-Day MA $4,150Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)$3,700 consolidation Support$3,500 Major Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart. December 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView Despite the overbought conditions on all timeframes, the rally isn't showing signs of stopping.Watch for any stalling of momentum however.A consolidation between $4,300 to $4,350 provides higher chances of a breakout as the RSI slows down.A retracement however points to a more balanced price action going forward.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei 1.4% Up, Asian Shares Higher Most Read: The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market ReactionsThe Nikkei rose on Friday, marking its third consecutive weekly gain. This positive performance was driven by the optimistic mood on Wall Street, which is benefiting from the period between two major central bank meetings.The Nikkei 225 index closed 1.4% higher at 50,836.55, achieving 0.7% gain for the week. The broader Topix index climbed even more, rising 2% to reach a record closing high of 3,423.83.However, the technology sector did not fully participate in the rally. Despite a recent surge due to excitement over artificial intelligence, these stocks were held back by the disappointing financial outlook from the US company, Oracle.The biggest decliners on the Nikkei were in this sector, with the chipmaker Tokyo Electron falling 3.4% and the semiconductor supplier Advantest dipping 1.2%.UK Economy Contracts The British economy performed worse than expected in October 2025, actually shrinking by 0.1% compared to the previous month, instead of growing as analysts predicted.This decline followed a similar drop in September, meaning the economy has gone four consecutive months without any growth.The biggest drag came from the services sector, which fell 0.3%. Key areas that struggled were wholesale and retail trade (down 4.3%) and computer-related services (down 3.6%). The construction sector also saw a drop of $0.6\%$, mainly due to a decline in new private house building (down 2.4%).In contrast, the production sector offered a bright spot, bouncing back with a 1.1% increase. This growth was seen across various industries, including manufacturing (up 0.5%, boosted significantly by a 9.5% rise in the manufacture of motor vehicles and trailers), mining (up 4.3%), and utilities like electricity and gas.Overall, looking at the three-month period leading up to October, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also contracted by 0.1%.European Session - European Shares Eye Third Week of Gains European stock markets were set for a third straight week of gains on Friday, following the positive performance of Wall Street. Investors were encouraged by the US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and continued to believe more cuts would follow in 2026.The main pan-European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.4%, moving close to a new all-time high. Major country markets, including Spain's IBEX (up 0.8%) and Germany's DAX (up 0.6%), were also trading higher.The banking sector was strong, with shares of UBS jumping 4.4% to a 17-year high after Swiss lawmakers suggested easing new capital rules for the bank.European markets were lifted by overnight gains in the US, where the S&P 500 and the Dow closed at record highs, as the Fed's comments were seen as less aggressive than feared. Investors also largely ignored persistent worries about the high valuations of tech companies, even after disappointing forecasts from Oracle and Broadcom.The basic resources sector advanced 0.5% as copper prices hit a new record high, supported by China's promise of future financial stimulus and the Fed's rate cut.Other sectors also gained, with Lufthansa shares climbing 5.5% after an analyst upgrade, and retailers like Adidas and Puma rising over 2% after good news from their US peer, Lululemon Athletica. LPP, a Polish fashion retailer, was the best performer on the STOXX 600, surging 11.2%.On the FX front, the US dollar remained stable on Friday, but it is still heading for its third consecutive weekly decline, largely due to expectations that interest rates will be cut next year.1Meanwhile, the British pound held steady even after new data revealed the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in the three months leading up to October, a development that could increase anticipation of future Bank of England rate cuts.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six other major currencies, was flat at 98.34 and is on track for a 0.64% weekly loss. The index has dropped over 9% this year, putting it on pace for its sharpest annual decline since 2017.Against this weaker dollar, the euro was trading at 1.1737 (near a two-month high), and the pound was firmer at 1.3383 (near a seven-week high).The Japanese yen weakened slightly, trading at 155.87 per dollar, ahead of the Bank of Japan's meeting next week where a rate hike is widely anticipated.Finally, the Swiss franc was stable at 0.7951 per US dollar, following its rise to a nearly one-month high on Thursday. .Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices reached a seven-week high on Friday, driven by several factors: the US dollar was weak, investors were anticipating future interest rate cuts, and global political unrest increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.Simultaneously, silver hit a record high. Specifically, spot gold rose 0.7% to 4,311.73 per ounce, heading for a strong 2.7% weekly gain.In the energy markets, oil prices moved higher on Friday due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in Venezuela.However, oil is still expected to post a weekly loss because market focus remains on the persistent global supply surplus and the possibility of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude futures gained 33 cents (0.54%) to 61.61 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 35 cents (0.61%) at 57.95.Read More:Nasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullishUSD/JPY: 5-day JPY weakness has reached an inflection point for potential reversal as FOMC loomsWill Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet from a data perspective.Today's US economic calendar is light on major news, which should allow the market to calm down and stabilize after the significant event risk of the Federal Reserve's meeting earlier in the week.Given this quiet environment, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to trade consistently around the 98.35 level, with the potential to edge down slightly to the 98.20 mark for the time being.Looking ahead to next week, market focus will shift to the European Central Bank's final rate decision of the year, especially since a policymaker recently hinted that the next move could potentially be an interest rate hike, contrasting with the Fed's current path. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has held above the key confluence level at 24000 for the last five trading days.Further strengthening the bullish narrative is that we have broken out of the bull flag pattern hinting at a potential 1200 point move.The period-14 RSI is eyeing a retest of the neutral 50 level. A bounce off this level could give bulls some optimism as it does hint that bullish momentum remains intact for now.Immediate resistance rests at 24500 before the swing high just below the 24800 handle comes into focus.Immediate support rests at 24000 before the swing high at 23880 and the 20-day MA at 23716 come into focus.DAX Index Daily Chart, December 12, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 11The session following an FOMC rate decision is always a fascinating one.FOMC days tend to be truly chaotic, due to the flurry of incoming orders, algorithms driving markets up and down, and a general sense of confusion over whether events were already priced in, and if so, whether they were priced in enough.The best example of this is the spectacular squeeze in Silver. Up above 10% since the beginning of the week, the COMEX decided to coincidentally up margins in Silver... by 10%.The flows are getting interesting in this most confusing rate cutting cycle from the Fed and confirms that 2025 has been one hell of a year for trading.The "Debasement Trade" continued today, but with a tilt towards defensive sectors, with the Dow Jones beating its peers and tech getting wrecked. The DJIA closes up by 1.34% while Nasdaq closes down 0.34%. Talk about a rotation – That's a big one.Post-cut flows are developing but they are still young; things will get volatile until the end of the week.After this, expect a snoozer until December 16 and the November Non-Farm Payrolls report.Apart from that, the US Dollar has been diving in a bottomless pit, dragging bonds with it – Longer-term yields are rising while the Dollar sags. A rough cocktail for the US Treasury.At least the US President contained his discontent with the only 25 bps cut... Read More:The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market ReactionsBitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) levels for the FOMCTechnical Analysis of Google and Microsoft Stocks – AI Leaders Outlook part 2Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today's flows around Markets have been covered in detail in our most recent piece (which I gladly invite you to check) – It covers fundamental and mechanical flows after Fed Cuts.Still, I can't seem to comprehend why Energy commodities are getting sold off so harshly. We will see why very soon I guess.Cryptos are also trading very erratically, a confused Market to say the least.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 11 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar continues to take a big hit, with the Swissie enjoying such flows the most.Today's SNB rate hold must have helped quite a lot, particularly as communications pointed to a less aggressive stance regarding their need to go into negative territory. Their recent trade deal with the US must also be helping quite a lot.Surprisingly, the AUD and NZD are the laggers of the session, dragged down from Aussie Employment missing harshly, but apart from that I can't reason the Kiwi getting dragged down (apart from the regional trends in FX where currencies get pulled by their neighbors).A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session will be quiet, with no major releases on the docket, allowing markets to focus on positioning ahead of tomorrow's critical data.Tomorrow's session (Friday) is packed with the final high-impact data for the week, focusing on European and UK growth and inflation.The early morning session features critical inflation and growth data:German HICP (CPI) (02:00 A.M. ET): A core inflation reading is expected to remain high at 2.6% YoY.UK GDP/Industrial Production (02:00 A.M. ET): These are key releases for assessing the health of the UK economy, with GDP expected to show a small recovery at 0.1% MoM. The North American Session will be very light on data but heavy on rhetoric:FedSpeak is back on the line after a very long Blackout period. The morning features three speeches from influential members of the Federal Reserve: Fed's Paulson (08:00 A.M. ET), Fed's Hammack (08:30 A.M. ET), and Fed's Goolsbee (10:30 A.M. ET).Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) is breaking its preceding record after a huge rally from the open – It just reached 48,526 and is now stalling a bit from (minimal) profit-taking. zoom_out_map Dow Jones Index (DJIA) Daily Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Defensive Equities are ecstatic and the post-cut sector rotation is running.A detailed update on Major Stock indices is coming up at the top of the hour!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (11/12/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart reflect on a decision to cut rates by the Federal Reserve and forward guidance. Otherwise, we touch base on the upside currently on display in silver pricing, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss franc. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices have fallen from a post FOMC high of $4250/oz to lows around $4206/oz in early US trade. Market participants are assessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook after the latest interest rate cut.Mixed FOMC Keeps Markets Guessing On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) carried out another interest rate cut of 25 bps, which put the new target range for the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%, exactly as expected.The decision, however, was not unanimous, passing with a 9-3 vote; one member wanted a larger cut of 50 bps, while two others wanted to keep the rates unchanged. Despite the cut, the price of gold did not rise much because the Fed did not offer a strong or clear outlook for future rate decisions.As discussed in the FOMC Preview article this week, the dot plot and forward guidance were always likely to hold more importance at the meeting. This certainly proved true looking at the reaction of the precious metal since.Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY) Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated that the central bank is "well-positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves." These comments confirmed that the Fed is taking a "wait-and-see" approach after cutting rates three times this year (a total of 75 basis points).Nevertheless, since policymakers still disagree on whether more rate cuts will be needed in 2026, market participants are unsure about the future direction of policy, which is keeping the price of gold stuck in the same trading range it has been in for over a week.Market expectations however, have not changed much. Looking at the latest data from LSEG and markets are still pricing in around 57 bps of rate cuts through December 2026.Implied Rates for Federal Reserve zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Ahead of the meeting markets were pricing in around 76 bps of cuts (including yesterday). This shows that there hasn't been much change and this could explain Gold's malaise today.FOMC Impact on the US Dollar and Outlook The FOMC meeting yesterday was likely the most significant event that could positively impact the markets before the end of the year.Since that event has now passed, the US dollar might start to experience its typical seasonal weakness as the year concludes. This could cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to gradually fall toward the 98.00 level and potentially lower.Looking ahead at events that could spark some volatility in the US Dollar in the days and weeks before the January Fed meeting.There is a large amount of new economic data scheduled for release. However, Fed Chair Powell cautioned that this data might be misleading or inaccurate because of technical problems caused by the government shutdown.Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming November jobs report, which is due next Tuesday. Additionally, there are several other rate meetings scheduled by major central banks over the next ten days. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Geopolitical Risk Another factor to keep in mind heading into the year-end is the ongoing US-Venezuela dynamic. Any escalations or fall of government could add to safe haven demand and thus aid Gold in its bullish rally.This may prove to be a saving grace for those eyeing $4300/oz handle for the precious metal. Without such a catalyst, i am not sure Gold can sustain its current bullish momentum in the last three weeks of December. This could leave the precious metal in for a correction ahead of 2026.Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is decent for bullish continuation.The key is the most recent high near the key 4250 handle which has served as resistance before as well on December 5.A four-hour candle close above this level will be needed if bulls are to seize the initiative.The period-14 RSI remains above 50 which is a sign of bullish momentum.A move above 4250 brings 4259 and 4275 into focus.A pullback from here brings the 50-day MA into focus at 4209 before the 4190 and 100-day MA at 4166 into focus.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 11, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar took a hit following yesterday's Fed decision, driven by mechanical flows typical after a rate cut.Given the rally to new cycle highs over the past two months, current outflows aren't surprising—benefiting not just the majors, but especially exotic currencies. Prior to the meeting, the Dollar had held relatively strong despite a dovish Fed repricing, ranging near its recent highs supported by elevated yields following Williams' comments.However, despite the Dot Plot projecting only ~2 cuts for 2026 and Chair Powell suggesting the US is entering the "high end of the neutral rate range," the Dollar is sliding back to mid-October levels. zoom_out_map US Dollar Performance against Majors since the beginning of the Week – Source: TradingView The cut itself was neither explicitly dovish nor hawkish; communications were solid. If you missed Powell's speech (great recap right here), he placed extra emphasis on inflation. Consequently, as noted yesterday, future inflation data may carry even more weight than the NFP (which is projected to ease gradually over the next year).The Fed has been driving blind with limited inflation reports since September due to the government shutdown, making upcoming prints critical for markets. November NFP is scheduled for December 16, followed by CPI on Dec 18.Let's dive into the Dollar Index (DXY) charts to spot how much deeper the Dollar can correct given this shift in fundamentals. Read More:Markets Today: SNB Hold Rates, SoftBank Falls 7.7%, Gold Slips Post FOMC. DAX Holds Above Psychological 24000 HandleNasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullishMarkets higher after the Fed Cut, but Concerns Remain – North American session Market Wrap for December 10Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-timeframe OutlookDaily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar is falling harshly after trying to hold its elevated range, nothing too surprising here – Yesterday's move was based from its 200-Day Moving Average acting as resistance and now breaking below its key Pivot Area rendering the DXY bearish short-term.Looking back even further, the US Dollar is holding a long-term rangebound trajectory since mid-2025 between 97.00 to 100.00 – Makes sense when looking at its first-half harsh fall (-12% since January).On the bigger picture, cuts have been expected for a long-time in the US so yesterday did not surprise Macro traders too much. Still, with the Daily RSI going towards the bearish territory and momentum getting strong, the fall should continue at least towards the 98.00 Support area, allowing other majors to appreciate.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Keep a close eye on the Dollar Bear Channel in Intraday timeframes which should guide short-term flows.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highs99.80 mini-resistance98.50 to 98.80 Pivot ZoneSupport Levels98.25 Lower bound of 4H Channel98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips) Next support97.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart, December 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView Watch to the reactions as the Dollar reaches the lower bound of the Channel between 98.20 to 98.30 and spot how other assets correlate.There has been profit-taking flows overnight in Equities so keep an eye on this and flows in other FX currencies throughout the session.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Struggles, Ends the Day Down 0.9% Most Read: The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market ReactionsThe Nikkei finished lower on Thursday, primarily because of a large drop in SoftBank Group shares. SoftBank's decline mirrored the steep fall of the US tech giant Oracle, which disappointed investors by predicting sales and profit below what Wall Street analysts expected.Although the Nikkei briefly rose by 0.5% earlier in the day, it closed down 0.9% at 50148.82. The broader Topix index also fell by 0.94% after opening at a record high.SoftBank Group was the biggest drag, plummeting 7.69%. Other Japanese technology companies also lost ground, including Tokyo Electron (down 1.57%), Shin-Etsu Chemical (down 3.94%), and the robot maker Fanuc (down 2.19%).Even bank stocks, such as Mizuho Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, gave up their initial gains and finished lower.Swiss National Bank Hold Rates at 0% The Swiss National Bank (SNB) concluded its final meeting of the year by keeping its key interest rate at zero, and it will continue to charge a small fee ($0.25$ percentage point) on bank deposits that exceed a certain limit.The bank also stated it is prepared to step into the foreign exchange markets if necessary. Inflation in Switzerland is currently very low, falling to 0.0% in November (from 0.2% in August), mainly because of cheaper hotel stays, rent, and clothing.Looking ahead, the SNB predicts inflation will remain low, gradually increasing to 0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027. Globally, economic growth was better than expected in the third quarter of 2024 despite trade conflicts, though risks from US tariffs and uncertain trade policies remain.Within Switzerland, the economy actually shrank in the third quarter, largely due to a decrease in pharmaceutical exports to the US after an earlier surge, but other sectors like manufacturing and services saw minor improvements.The SNB expects the country's economy to grow by just under 1.5% in 2025, slowing to about 1% in 2026, which may lead to a slight rise in unemployment as the economy cools down.European Session - European Shares Edge Lower, Delivery Hero Down 5% European stock markets were relatively quiet on Thursday, seeing a small dip overall. The main reason for the decline was the poor forecast from the American cloud company Oracle, which caused technology stocks to fall. This negative news overshadowed the relief felt after the US Federal Reserve made comments that were less aggressive about future interest rate hikes than investors had anticipated.The general European STOXX 600 index, along with major markets like London and France, was down by about 0.1% to 0.3%. The technology sector specifically dropped about 0.9%, with the German software company SAP falling 2.5% because Oracle's disappointing sales and profit predictions, combined with increased spending plans, brought back worries about the high valuations and returns on investments in artificial intelligence.Although the Federal Reserve indicated that it might not cut interest rates immediately until the job market stabilizes, which was a positive signal for investors, it wasn't enough to counteract the tech sector's decline.In other company news, Delivery Hero shares dropped 5% after a downgrade from Citigroup, while Drax in London rose 2.2% after predicting higher-than-expected yearly profits, and RS Group was the top performer on the STOXX 600, gaining 3% after an analyst upgrade.On the FX front, the US dollar received some support on Thursday because there was a general avoidance of risk across the markets.However, it couldn't fully recover the ground it lost the previous day against other major currencies like the euro, yen, and sterling, mainly because the Federal Reserve's recent announcement was not as aggressive as some investors had anticipated.The euro remained stable at 1.1704 (a two-month high) after a significant gain on Wednesday, and the British pound held steady at 1.13374 following a similar rise. The dollar also continued to weaken against the Japanese yen, dipping 0.14% to 155.8 yen.Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached its strongest level against the dollar in nearly a month, trading at 0.7992 per dollar.The Australian dollar suffered from the same risk-aversion trend, falling 0.5% to 0.6644. Reflecting the broad drop in risk appetite,Bitcoin briefly fell below the 90,000 mark, and Ether dropped more than 4% to 3,200..Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices declined on Thursday as investors redirected their attention toward two main events: the ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the potential consequences of the US seizing an oil tanker that had been sanctioned off the Venezuelan coast.These factors led to a decrease in prices. Specifically, Brent crude futures dropped by 81 cents, or 1.3%, settling at 61.40/barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude also fell by 78 cents, or 1.3%, to 57.68/barrel.Gold prices dropped slightly on Thursday, moving away from a high point reached earlier in the week. This dip occurred because the US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was not unanimously supported, leaving investors uncertain about how quickly the central bank will continue to lower rates next year.However, in contrast, silver hit a new record high. Specifically, spot gold fell 0.4% to 4,210.88/oz, though it had briefly reached its highest price since December 5th earlier in the trading session.Meanwhile, US gold futures for February delivery saw a small increase of 0.3% to 4,238.10/oz.Read More:Nasdaq 100: Post-FOMC gains wiped out, but technicals are still bullishUSD/JPY: 5-day JPY weakness has reached an inflection point for potential reversal as FOMC loomsWill Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet from a data perspective. There are Turkish interest rates and the OPEC monthly report which will be released and could stoke some volatility.The US session will be busier though with Canadian and US trade balance data, Initial jobless claims and the NVIDIA senate bill coming into focus.None of the above are expected to be massive market moving events and attention will now turn to inputs from the November jobs data next Tuesday.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting yesterday was likely the most significant event that could positively impact the markets before the end of the year. Since that event has now passed, the US dollar might start to experience its typical seasonal weakness as the year concludes. This could cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to gradually fall toward the 98.00 level. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has held above the key confluence level at 24000 for the last four trading days.This could be seen as both positive and potentially slightly concerning. The failure to push higher means bulls are hesitant to push on and a lot of this is likely down to the FOMC meeting.The post FOMC reaction has been rather tentative and not had a major impact on the DAX for now.The period-14 RSI is eyeing a retest of the neutral 50 level. A bounce off this level could give bulls some optimism as it does hint that bullish momentum remains intact for now.Immediate resistance rests at 24200 before the swing high just above the 24400 handle comes into focus.Immediate support rests at 24000 before the swing high at 23880 and the 20-day MA at 23667 come into focus.DAX Index Index Daily Chart, December 11, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Post-FOMC optimism faded fast, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures reversing sharply on renewed US–China tensions and concerns over AI-related export violations tied to DeepSeek.Sentiment worsened after Oracle’s 11.5% after-hours plunge, as weak revenue reignited worries over stretched AI valuations and dragged index futures lower.Despite the pullback, Nasdaq 100 technicals remain constructive, with improving market breadth and key supports holding, keeping the medium-term bullish reversal bias intact. The post-FOMC rally quickly fizzled in today’s Asia session, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures falling -0.8% and -1.1%, effectively wiping out Wednesday’s gains.The pullback appears driven by renewed US-China geopolitical tension after reports that Chinese AI firm DeepSeek obtained smuggled Nvidia Blackwell chips, hardware banned for export to China, to build its next-generation model.Sentiment was further hit by an 11.5% plunge in Oracle’s after-hours trading following weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue, reigniting concerns over stretched AI valuations and feeding into index futures weakness.Despite the current intraday weak sentiment in the US futures, technicals are not suggesting the potential start of a medium-term downtrend phase for the Nasdaq 100.Let’s dive deeper into several technical elements that are still constructively bullish.Nasdaq 100 market breadth has improved in the past three weeks zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above 20-day & 50-day moving averages as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Based on the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages, there has been a significant improvement since 17 November 2025, after the three-week down move seen in the Nasdaq 100 from its current all-time high in late October 2025, triggered by AI bubble fears and weakness in the share price of Nvidia ex-post earnings.The share of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their 20-day moving average has surged to 65%, up sharply from 23% on 17 November 2025.Similarly, the proportion trading above the 50-day moving average has risen to 56%, from 28% on 17 November 2025, though at a more gradual pace (see Fig. 1).Peferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) – Bullish reversal remains intact zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 11 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The potential bullish reversal that has taken form on the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) since the 21 November 2025 low of 23,840 remains intact.Medium-term pivotal support rests on 25,165 to maintain the bullish bias, and a clearance above 25,745 potential upside trigger level, is likely to increase the odds of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence to retest the current all-time high at 26,288 before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 26,480/26,545 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).Key elements Price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index continue to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 26 November 2025.The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has pulled back and just staged a rebound right above a key ascending support, which suggests a potential medium-term bullish momentum revival for the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks) Failure to hold at the 25,165 key medium-term pivotal support invalidates the bullish scenario to kick-start a deeper corrective decline on the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index to retest the next medium-term supports at 24,540 and 24,000 (critical swing low areas of 10 October 2025 and 21 November 2025). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 10The Fed delivered a "neutral" 25 bps cut to 3.50%-3.75%, sending markets higher.Bonds, stocks, and metals all rallied, while the US Dollar took a significant hit.Small-cap stocks and industrials outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+1.50%) and the Dow Jones (+1.10%) leading the way—a natural flow, as rate cuts tend to support these sectors the most.Bitcoin, on the other hand, failed to hold its highs unlike other asset classes.Still, Ethereum and some altcoins maintained some strength, the broader crypto market still seems confused.Tomorrow's close will be essential for all asset classes;Despite the current rally, major indices remain a few percentage points away from their relative highs.Optimism will need to persist. Watch the Dollar closely, as its inverse correlation is currently guiding the rally. zoom_out_map Market Outlook 30M Charts for S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD – Source: TradingView It remains to be seen if this momentum can continue given the less optimistic tone regarding future cuts: The dot plot signaled only 1 to 2 additional cuts (excluding Fed’s Miran, whose dot remains a dovish outlier).Chair Powell strongly emphasized tariff-led inflation as the Fed's primary concern—and with good reason.Tariffs have been in place for six months, and their full impact may not yet be visible, especially with the Fed going in blind following the month-and-a-half-long BLS closure.Keep a close eye on all inflation data (CPI, PCE, and PPI) going forward. Read More:The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market ReactionsBitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) levels for the FOMCTechnical Analysis of Google and Microsoft Stocks – AI Leaders Outlook part 2Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Except for Bitcoin which really sends concerns after its fakeout, all assets push higher after the Fed Cut.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 10 – Source: OANDA Labs Both the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve rate decisions pushed their currencies lower, profiting to the CHF and the GBP.The Greenback took a particularly huge hit, not only against the Majors but even more towards exotic currencies.The Swedish Krona, the South African Rand and Brazilian Real were some of the best performances there.Look at if this trend continues towards the rest of 2026 – This could have potential as Major currencies already performed quite strong in 2025.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The evening session will turn the eyes towards Australia, which faces its most critical domestic report of the month.AUD Employment Change (19:30 ET): This is the high-tier data of the night, with consensus expecting a drop in jobs added to 20K (from 42.2K) and a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 4.4% (from 4.3%). A soft reading would heavily influence the RBA's future rate path, Tomorrow's session (Thursday) is less data-heavy, focusing on central bank commentary and a final look at the US labor market.The early morning features a high-impact speech from BoE Governor Bailey (04:50 A.M. ET), which will provide context on the UK's inflation fight.The North American Session will likely drive the final volatility of the US trading week:Initial Jobless Claims (08:30 A.M. ET): This weekly data provides the freshest read on the US labor market, with expectations set at 220K.Keep a close eye on the close tomorrow as traders digest the Fed Cut and Powell's speech. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptocurrencies have traded up and down over the past week following a rough correction across the board. *By the way, the Bank of Canada Press Conference is currently ongoing for those interesting, you can access it right here – No Cut for the BoC, 2.25% rate unchanged*While key long-term support levels arrested the steep decline and dip-buyers stepped in, the market failed to hold its highs despite a strong session yesterday.This afternoon's event will be critical for all asset classes, including crypto. Here is why:FOMC events often trigger sharp swings between risk-on and risk-off sentiment. As risk assets, cryptocurrencies often correlate with equities. For example, during the 2023 hiking cycle, risk assets dumped lower, triggering massive selloffs in the crypto market.Rate-cutting cycles typically boost non-yielding assets like Gold and Bitcoin. On a straightforward basis, a cut should support higher prices, though the reaction will depend heavily on whether the Fed's guidance for 2026 is dovish.If today's (highly probable) rate cut fuels risk appetite, Bitcoin and its peers should rise. If sentiment becomes ecstatic, expect memecoins and altcoins to outperform; if the mood is positive but measured, look for market leaders like Bitcoin (BTC) , Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) to lead the charge.As a matter of fact, let's explore the intraday charts and levels for these three crypto leaders to prepare for the rate decision, coming up in about three hours. Read More:FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)US Curve outlook: Why US Treasury yields are surging before the FedMarkets Today: Chinese Inflation at 21-Month Highs, Silver Soars Above $61/oz as Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of the FEDBitcoin, Solana and Ethereum Technical AnalysisBitcoin 8H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin rallied a strong 14% since reaching its $80,563 lows on November 21, bringing back intermediate momentum into balance (from heavily bearish).Still, the chart doesn't point to immediate bullish domination – The RSI is going sideways. This arises particularly as sellers appeared at the highs of the bear channel, keep an eye on this one.The dip-buying was a technical one, with the Crypto Leader retest its long-term support levels as seen in our previous analysis.Things might change today howeverFOMC Scenarios:A daily close above $94,000 points to a continued break higher. If the rest of the Market follows suit, a new uptrend might be found. A yearly close above $100,000 confirms the return of a long-term bullish environment.Hanging close within the $88,000 to $92,000 maintains the current hesitant picture.Close below $88,000 however may relaunch the bearish trend which can be dangerous for the Market outlook.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels$88,000 to $92,000 major support turned Pivot (testingNovember lows $80,563$85,000 mini Support (+/- $500)Liberation Day Support $75,000 to $80,000Resistance Levelsmini-resistance around $94,000Swing highs from yesterday $94,657 and highs to break$98,000 to $100,000 Main ResistanceResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView The idea is the same for Ethereum, but the breakout has been even-more solid. Hence, traders may expect ETH outperformance if today's FOMC is bullish.In a bearish case, ETH and other altcoins should outperform.FOMC Scenarios:In a bullish session, a close above $3,400 continues the more bullish momentum found recently. Keep track of the upward trendline in this case.In a balanced FOMC session, prices should maintain between $3,000 to $3,300 indicating that traders will be looking to learn more – Rangebound action in this case.In a bearish session, ETH should close below $3,000 and relaunch the bearish prospects.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels$3,000 Psychological level and Pivot (+ 50 MA)$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)$2,620 Recent Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels$3,400 Tuesday highs$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana (SOL) 8H Chart and levels zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) 8H Chart, December 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView Solana has rebounded but still struggles to find upside momentum, holding its mid-October downwards channel.The third largest crypto maintains a rangebound price action between $125 to $145.FOMC Scenarios:Bullish case: Solana closes above $145 which would imply a return in the Crypto, and should increase odds of a channel breakout ($155 is the level to look)Neutral case: The crypto holds its ongoing range, not so bad considering how bearish the previous momentum was. It also holds the line for a future reboundBearish case: Solana closes at the lows of its range, which may trigger a further selloff.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support LevelsMain Support $125 to $130 (Range lows)$110 to $115 SupportWeekly lows $123Support 3: $100 to $105Resistance Levels$140 to $150 Major Pivot (Range Highs)Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170$180 to $190 ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 Cycle highsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AUD is leading the FX space on renewed RBA hawkishness, while the JPY remains the weakest major currency as BoJ signals flexibility on policy.USD/JPY’s recent five-day rally is losing steam, with momentum indicators and resistance confluence pointing to a potential minor bearish reversal.A break below 156.00 on the USD/JPY could open the way toward 155.35 and 154.40, while a move above 157.15 would negate the downside setup. In the FX market, a “K-shaped” performance has emerged with the AUD rallying and outperforming among the major currencies against the US dollar due to the hawkish monetary policy guidance from the Australian central bank, RBA. In today’s Asia session, AUD extended its gains by 0.1% after a 0.3% return seen on Tuesday, 9 December, towards a three-month high at 0.6650 (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 5-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) At the end of the spectrum, the Japanese yen weakened for the third consecutive session against the greenback (USD/JPY rallied by 1% on a 5-day rolling basis) due to mixed messages from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda’s speech on Tuesday, 9 December.Ueda highlighted that the BoJ may ramp up government bond buying if long-term JGB yields rise rapidly, which appeared to be a signal that the BoJ is willing to tweak its existing policy after the BoJ ended its yield curve control programme in March 2024 that previously suppressed the rise in the 10-year JGB yield.Interestingly, technical analysis suggests that the recent 5-day rally of the USD/JPY from its 154.40 minor swing low printed on 5 December 2025 has started to lose upside momentum that may lead to a potential minor bearish reversal on the USD/JPY.Let’s unravel in greater detail.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bearish with 156.00 as potential downside trigger zoom_out_map Fig. 2: USD/JPY major & medium-term trends as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 10 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 157.15 key short-term pivotal resistance on the USD/JPY, and a break below 156.00 key near-term support (also the 20-day moving average) may trigger a minor bearish reversal to retest the next intermediate supports at 155.35 and 154.40.A break and an hourly close below 154.40 may kickstart another minor downtrend sequence to expose 153.70 (also the 50-day moving average) next in the first step (see Fig. 3).Key elements Tuesday, 9 December 2025’s rally on the USD/JPY ex-post BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech has stalled at the pull-back resistance of a former medium-term ascending support from 29 October 2025 low, the minor swing high area of 24 November 2025, and close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor downtrend from 20 November 2025 high to 5 December 2025 low, all confluence at the 157.15 level.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just staged a bearish breakdown below a key ascending support after it exited from the overbought region (above 70). These observations suggest that the recent short-term upside momentum of the USD/JPY has eased.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 157.15 invalidates the minor bearish reversal view for a further potential squeeze up for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 158.00/158.35. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Tentative trading Ahead of FOMC Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)Japan's main stock market index, the Topix, briefly hit an all-time record high early on Wednesday before losing momentum. The index ended the day with a small 0.1% gain, while the more selective Nikkei 225 index dropped slightly by 0.1%.Car manufacturers like Honda and Toyota performed well, helped by a weaker yen, which makes their exports cheaper abroad. Overall, more stocks rose than fell on the Nikkei index. The top performers included DOWA Holdings and the toilet maker TOTO, while the biggest losers were the drugmaker Shionogi and the chip supplier Lasertec.Meanwhile, the interest rates (yields) on short-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) climbed to a 17-year high. This rise in yields is a strong sign that investors are increasingly sure the Bank of Japan will raise its interest rates at its policy meeting next week.China Inflation Rate at 21-Month Highs China's annual inflation rate (the increase in consumer prices over a year) rose to 0.7% in November 2025, up from 0.2% the month before. This increase matched expectations and reached its highest point since February 2024.For the first time in ten months, food prices went up (0.2%), driven by higher prices for fresh vegetables and fruits, and a smaller decline in pork prices. Non-food prices also continued to rise (0.8%), helped by government programs encouraging consumers to trade in old items. Key areas seeing price increases included clothing, healthcare, and education.However, housing prices were flat, and transportation costs continued to fall. If you look at core inflation (which ignores volatile food and energy prices), it held steady at a strong 1.2%, its highest level in 20 months.On a monthly basis, however, consumer prices actually fell by 0.1%, missing forecasts for a gain and marking the first monthly decline in five months.European Session - Shares Slip Ahead of FOMC European stock markets declined slightly on Wednesday, with the main pan-European STOXX 600 index dropping 0.1%. This marks the fourth straight day of losses for the index.Investors are holding back from making large trades while they wait for the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates later today, and they are also looking closely at the latest company updates.Major markets in Germany and Spain also saw small dips. France's CAC 40 index dropped 0.1% after lawmakers narrowly passed the government's 2026 social security budget, which came at a high political cost. Financial and industrial stocks, which had been boosting the market recently, fell; specifically, insurance stocks dropped, pulled down by a 7% slide in Aegon's shares after its trading update.The main focus remains on the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates by a small amount (25 basis points). However, investors will be paying close attention to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about how the central bank will manage its monetary policy next year given the signs of a weakening US economy.In company news, Delivery Hero's stock jumped 6.1% after the firm told shareholders it is looking at ways to better manage its capital and considering strategic options.On the FX front, the Japanese yen appeared weak on Wednesday, having suffered a sudden drop overnight. The main reason for the yen's weakness is the large gap between Japan's very low interest rates and the higher rates in other countries, despite the expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise its rates next week.The yen was trading slightly stronger at 156.64 per dollar after dropping 0.6% toward the 157 level in the previous session for no clear reason. The yen also fell to a record low against the euro overnight and stayed near that weak level.Meanwhile, the US dollar was generally steady, and most other currencies saw only small movements as traders waited for the important US Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day. Investors are betting the Fed will cut interest rates at what is expected to be a very divided meeting.The dollar index was firm at 99.20 The euro and British pound were mostly unchanged, while the New Zealand dollar eased slightly.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices were stable on Wednesday after dropping by about 1% yesterday, as investors are focused on progress in the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and are also waiting for the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude both saw small gains of about 0.3%.Meanwhile, silver is having a record-breaking run, having hit the $60/oz mark for the first time ever on Tuesday and then rising above $61/oz overnight. This surge is due to a supply shortage and growing demand for the metal.In contrast, gold prices dipped slightly on Wednesday as investors prepared to hear comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later today, when the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates.Spot Gold continues to grind around the $4200/oz level.Read More:Getting ready for the FOMC – North American session Market Wrap for December 9Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Major Resistance - Next Stop $100,000?Will Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet today with a lack of high impact data releases. We will hear comments from both ECB and BoE policymakers which could stoke some volatility. ECB policymakers have adopted a rather hawkish tone of late with further comments highly anticipated.The US session will be where all focus rests today. First we will get the Bank of Canada rate decision as well as crude oil inventories data.Finally, the highly anticipated FOMC meeting comes into focus. There is a lot of uncertainty around what to expect especially when it comes to the Feds updated economic projections. I strongly believe that the economic projections and comments from Fed Chair Powell could move markets more than the rate decision itself. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has held above the key confluence level at 24000 for the last three trading days.This could be seen as both positive and potentially slightly concerning. The failure to push higher means bulls are hesitant to push on and a lot of this is likely down to the FOMC meeting.However, if the FOMC meeting is positive for stocks, the knock on effect could help propel the DAX toward the all-time highs once more.The period-14 RSI is eyeing a retest of the neutral 50 level. A bounce off this level could give bulls some optimism as it does hint that bullish momentum remains intact for now.Immediate resistance rests at 24200 before the swing high just above the 24400 handle comes into focus.Immediate support rests at 24000 before the swing high at 23880 and the 20-day MA at 23667 come into focus.DAX Index Daily Chart, December 10, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 9Erratic flows across Markets yet again as the countdown to the FOMC decision goes on.While US Stock Markets were snoozers today, but risk-asset enjoyers did get a volatility dose: Cryptos offered quite a strong session, with Bitcoin coming shy of $95,000 and Ethereum touching the $3,300 level before retreating lower.The unambiguous winner of today's session, however, is easily Silver, which broke its fresh $59 record to mark an intraday All-time High at $60.83 in an aggressive late-session move.This price action is highly suggestive of a late session short squeeze, with some traders unfolding some awkward positions held too long ahead of the FOMC event – I have seen such moves before and have also been there myself.The next key technical test for the metal will be tomorrow's close: confirmation of a breakout relies on the metal closing tomorrow above $59.The fundamental backdrop remains anchored but restrictive.This morning’s JOLTS report delivered a beat which, while preserving the high odds for tomorrow’s rate cut (around 85%), has effectively taken some 2026 rate cuts.The Eastern-Europe conflict headlines also intensified: President Trump renewed his menaces to Ukraine in a Politico interview released today, questioning Zelenskyy's legitimacy due to postponed elections and asserting that Russia retains the "upper hand" in the conflict, while throwing shade at European leaders.There hasn't been much movement in the Euro but such words originally propulsed the Joint Currency to some extended-rallies earlier this year.For those who missed, the RBA delivered a hawkish pause yesterday evening, holding their rates steady at 3.60%.The central bank cited renewed upward pressures on inflation and did not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes in 2026, creating a stark divergence between US and Australian policy outlooks and sending AUD/USD to some 4-months highs.Tomorrow should bring back significant volatility after a calm pre-FOMC period.Still, traders will have to scramble to extract as much information as they can from the Powell speech at 14:30 tomorrow, as there will be nine more days (and seven sessions) until the emphatically essential NFP report on December 18th—the January NFP will release on January 9th as the BLS begins to recover its shutdown backlog. Read More:FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)US Curve outlook: Why US Treasury yields are surging before the FedWill Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Except for some spikes in Cryptos (particularly Altcoins) and Silver, other assets are patiently awaiting for the Fed to get moving.Very exciting. zoom_out_map Crypto Daily Performance, December 5, 2025 – Source: Finviz A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 9 – Source: OANDA Labs Dull movement throughout the open until AUD buyers and JPY sellers gave sense to the FX session.The Yen got wrecked particularly hard as further doubts on the Bank of Japan emerge as hawkish communication attempts fail to protect the Nippon currency.Check out our fresh FX reviews right here:The Yen Rout Continues: USD/JPY Surges to New Monthly Highs despite Key Rate decisionsAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAA look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The overnight to tomorrow session is going to be a game-changer and most probably the most intense trading period of December.Starting tonight with the China CPI, traders will get to know more on if economists start to turn the page on Chinese deflation, which will have its own influence on AUD and NZD particularly, and same for Asian Stock Markets.But all eyes are turning on tomorrow's Banger session:Bank of England's Governor Bailey and ECB's Lagarde go back to back in the early morning at a Financial Times Conference. The subject of their discussions hasn't been announced yet.Later, the Bank of Canada will deliver a first Central Bank rate decision, widely expected to remain unchanged but also should provide interesting developments for the future path: 2026 hikes have started to price after last Friday's Canadian Employment numbers.The press conference at 10:30 A.M. will be closely followed.But all eyes will be on the FOMC rate Decision, a Market volatility classic.A 25 Bps cut is expected but the cut itself will be far from the most interesting event:Dot plots (14:00) will be releasing for 2026 and above all, Powell's speech (14:30) will be followed by traders as if it was a prophecy.CHECK OUT OUR FOMC PREVIEWS!This will be one of his 4 final FOMC appearances before he steps down (May 2026).NEC Director Hassett is still the favorite for the job.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is a complement to our previous pre-FOMC analysis which explores the Fed Decision, Dot Plot and different scenarios for the US Dollar:Discover: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY)We will now turn to a more technical look into the US curve, a 10-Year Bond chart to see what's going on behind the pricing for tomorrow's meeting, and provide a few more scenarios depending on the rate cut path.More particularly, with the 25 bps cut being a quasi-certainty, we will provide potential scenarios on if the cut is hawkish or dovish and a few potential reactions.A first move to signal in Markets, is the recent move higher in US treasuries across the curve.Mentioned many times across our analyses on MarketPulse, the speech from NY Fed's Williams, a very influential speaker, affected Markets on a large scale: zoom_out_map Asset Performance since Williams' Speech – Source: TradingView Counter-intuitively, the speech that re-introduced possibilities of lower rates (which you can find right here) led a huge rebound in Stock Markets and Metals, but similarly preceded a move between +15 bps to +20 bps in US treasuries.But why? zoom_out_map US 10-Year Bond with 10Y Yield underlay – December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Never forget the sell-the-news effect – At least for the bonds!The reasoning behind this move is a microcosm of the 2025 trend: A fear of an influenced Federal Reserve, which may fast-forward its rate-cut cycle at the cost of their data-dependency–or even their independence!As explained in our recent pre-FOMC analysis, the 25-bps move could be one done with a blind eye – most of the data released throughout the past month is data dating back to September, such as the PPI and Retail Sales data (which corroborated a slowdown).However, at the same time, more actual data also sent mixed signals, particularly regarding Labor – Weekly Jobless Claims came in at the lowest level since September 2022 just a week ago, while ADP Private Payrolls showed a regressing picture.Until now, the Fed had been remarkably resilient about taking preemptive decisions without a clear consensus on why to hike or cut – and this shift in perspective also comes amid still uncertain tariff-led inflation outlooks. zoom_out_map The US Curve: Mid-October vs Today – A 15 to 25 bps increase throughout all durations The Greenback falling at the same time as yields rising indicates an increased premium for holding US debt.Many words to describe the same phenomenon: The Debasement Trade.If you haven't heard about this term, you can find a stellar definition right here. To summarize, it's a financial trend shifting away from fiat currencies and governmental assets to focus on finite assets, such as Stocks, Cryptocurrencies, and Metals.Coming back to the curve picture from above, the front-end flattened quite aggressively, implying Rates staying put for a longer-while after this cut. zoom_out_map Mid-2026 Pricing: 50% odds of a 3% Neutral Rate – Source: TradingView This takes us to our expectations for tomorrow:Scenarios and probabilities:A hawkish cut (70% chance) This is the base case for tomorrow's decision (in my opinion).Powell should indicate a risk-management move after the streak of negative private payrolls data combined with a not-aggravating inflationary picture.To balance out these words, expect the Fed Chair to point out to a blinded Fed due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics closure and delayed data, particularly for NFP.Reactions in Major assets Upcoming rate cut probabilities decrease to price a pause in the waiting for more dataThe US dollar maintains its ongoing consolidation range (between 99.00 to 100.00 on the Dollar Index)Stock Indexes correct due to their ecstatic post-Williams repricingShort-end yields shoot higher while long-end yields stay put (Harsh bear flattening)Metals correct slightlyA dovish cut (10% chance) Jerome Powell folds and makes extensive mentions on the private labor market while reducing mentions of inflation.Reactions in Major assets Rate cuts get front-loaded (moved forward) aggressively but leaves VERY volatile future pricingsThe US Dollar falls off a cliff and goes to retest the yearly lowsStock Indexes flash to new all-time highs but may find struggles as Fed Independence doubts rage backShort-end yields shoot lower while long-end yields shoot higher (Strong steepening)Metals explode to new all-time highs and keep running higherA dovish pause (20%) The Fed decides to hold their breath due to a lack of data but keep a strong option on rate cuts in the short-term.This one is the most tricky.Most participants expect a cut, but this would quickly shift the current pricing:Reactions in Major assets 2026 Rate cuts get front-loaded on a smaller extentThe US Dollar rallies to hold above/close to the 100.00 level.Stock Indexes see VERY volatile swings and form a large rangeThe curve stays put, long-term yields go lower (small Bull flattening)Metals correct slightlyThis article wasn't the most common, but I hope it will be instructive.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese Yen rout shows no signs of abating, pushing the USD/JPY pair to yet another set of monthly highs despite tomorrow’s highly anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve, combined with expectations of another hike in Japan.Rising expectations for another rate hike in JapanThe decisive driver behind the Yen's continued weakness is the market's profound distrust of the Japanese monetary and fiscal coordination. zoom_out_map Japanese Yen against other major currencies – Generated with the help of Gemini On one side, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government has pushed through gigantic stimulus with a stance the market deems fiscally reckless, leading to the original flash higher in USD/JPY – Reassuring words from the PM haven't had the best reception.On the other side, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is desperately trying to signal a normalization shift.In recent remarks, Ueda emphasized that the "certainty of the BoJ’s outlook materializing is increasing gradually," and that current policy remains "accommodative," even after previous minor adjustments.Still, Traders deem the divergence in both policies not being sustainable and leading to a confidence extinction.Even if the Bank of Japan hikes, how much can they really hike?The Yen's safety will be contingent on not just a hike, but a more stable and decisive tightening cycle.Also, keep a close eye on reactions to the Dollar tomorrow while Powell speaks! Read More:Will Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) reach new records with the FOMC?Markets Today: RBA Rate Hold, Nikkei Recovers, FTSE 100 Struggles as Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMCAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAUSD/JPY Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY Daily Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView What was thought to have been a top in the currency pair now looks like a healthy pullback.As the daily RSI went from overbought to neutral, bulls resurfaced strongly and are making a statement in the price action and are fully back in control.The only way for bears to have a case here would be if a mean reversion move towards the close would bring the action back within the 156.00 to 156.750 Main resistance.But things are not looking in this direction right now.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map USD/JPY 4H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Look at how clean the September Channel got respected on the recent rebound.USD/JPY technical levels of interest:Support Levels:155.00 Pivot ZoneRecent Lows 154.40154.00 Psychological Support50-Day MA 153.00150.00 Psychological Support and 50-Week MA146.00 August Range Main SupportResistance Levels:156.00 to 156.750 Main resistance (breaking)157.90 to 158.90 Yearly Resistance157.895 Recent Highs2025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.001990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.001H Chart zoom_out_map USD/JPY 1H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current move does not look like it's about to stop.A mini-resistance is coming up right above 157.00 and will be one of the two final points for sellers to appear again.The other one naturally being 157.895, the recent highs.Momentum is very overbought which may prompt some stoppage, but with buyers disregarding tomorrow's number, I wouldn't be surprised to see continuation here.A big part of the longer-run outlook for the pair will be dependent on what happens at tomorrow's FOMC event.The second most important event will be the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 19.Don't just watch the rate decision, keep a close eye on communications from the Central Banks!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Metals have completed yet another round of high-pace rally to new highs since the US government reopened and NY Fed’s Williams delivered his extra-dovish comments.After hawkish fears failed to materialize into real corrections in the bullions, traders were eager to push for such squeezes yet again.But with Gold failing to breach new all-time highs on this run, the attention is caught up in industrial metals, which have outperformed all precious peers (palladium, platinum, and gold). zoom_out_map Metal Performance since Enc-October 2025. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current leaders of the surge are Copper and Silver, which are heavily benefiting from their extreme necessity in the AI components creation and electrification megatrends.Silver, in particular, has seen its price nearly double over the last twelve months and has recently surged to a record settlement of $59.14 an ounce.The yellow metal is currently stuck in a narrow range and Silver keeps testing its highs. Both are awaiting tomorrow afternoon's FOMC decision before making their next definitive move. Gold’s direction will inevitably drag other metals with it.Today's analysis will focus on a Silver intraday chart and take a look at Gold to see if the upcoming FOMC (particularly communications during the speech) has the potential to push prices higher, what could happen depending on hawkish and dovish tones, and what technical targets are now in play. Read More:Markets Today: RBA Rate Hold, Nikkei Recovers, FTSE 100 Struggles as Markets Remain Cautious Ahead of FOMCAUD/USD: Major bullish breakout of Aussie ahead of RBAApple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) Technical Analysis – AI Leaders Outlook Part 3Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 8H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Prospects for Silver were scary after last month's double-top formation.But as seen throughout the year, when metals are racing higher while the US dollar heads lower, a general sign of currency balancing and risk-management perspectives from global Central Banks encourages the spread of further commodity demand.Reaching some new highs last Monday, Silver has maintained its high-range consolidation throughout the entire week (between $56.60 to $58.50).Ongoing sideways action at the highs allows overbought RSI levels to retreat while conserving higher chances of an upside breakout. Still, to keep an eye on the fundamental background, watch for these elements:If Powell's speech (starting at 14:30 E.T. tomorrow) makes mentions of a stressed labor market picture and/or if he makes allusions to more work to be done on rates, new all-time highs can easily be expected – Silver could spike between $60–$62.On the other hand, mentions of temporary readjustments in data, one-time reductions in labor, a "cut-and-see" approach, or anything of the sort will hurt metal demand quite harshly – a test of the previous all-time highs of $54 to $55 would make sense. If hawkish repricings see further strength, low $50s could also be visited.Keep an eye on 2026 cuts: The more cuts, the more fuel for the "Everything rally", and vice versa.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Fibonacci-Extension Resistance $58.00 to $602025 record $55.48$52 to $53 mini-resistance$51.18 session highsPotential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)Potential resistance 2 $62 to $65 (1.618 from Impulsive Move)Support Levels:$48.30 to $49 support$47 low of potential daily channel$45.55 October 28 lows$43.00 to $45.00 Weekly pivot$39.50 to $40 higher timeframe support2012 Highs Support around $37.50Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart and technical levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 8H Chart. December 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold sacrificed some current momentum to hold a more balanced approach ahead of the FOMC.Moving sideways since reaching some new highs in end-October, the yellow metal could be forming an ascending triangle, a very bullish pattern.In the case of an upside break, take the leg of the triangle (its height – $250 in this pattern) and use it as a Measured Move target which could point to $4,550 in the Bullion.Do not forget that patterns don't mean much before they play out, and for them to play out, traders will await tomorrow's meeting.With RSI right back at neutral (and bouncing higher from there), there is space for breakouts; expect explosive price action!Similarly to Silver (and same for all metals), the direction of the breakout will be highly dependent on Powell's tone tomorrow – The main catalyst for continuation (or reversal) for all Markets!Levels to watch for Gold (XAU) trading:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time High resistance $4,300 to $4,400Ascending triangle highs: $4,250 to $4,260$4,380 Current all-time HighsFib-Induced potential new ATH resistance $4,500 to $4,575Support LevelsSupport, 8H 50-period MA and Triangle bottom $4,140 to $4,150Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)$3,700 consolidation Support$3,500 Major SupportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.