Not too much change from late Friday:EUR/USD 1.1875 USD/JPY 152.66 GBP/USD 1.3641 AUD/USD 0.7072 USD/CAD 1.3609 USD/CHF 0.7685NZD/USD 0.6033I'll be back with weekend news soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sun: Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q4)Mon: US Holiday (Washington's Birthday/Presidents Day); Eurogroup Meeting; Swedish Unemployment (Jan), EZ Industrial Production (Dec)Tue: RBA Minutes (Feb); UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), German ZEW (Feb), US ADP Weekly, Canadian CPI (Jan), NY Fed (Feb), Chinese Lunar New Year (Hong Kong markets closed from 17th-19th Feb)Wed: RBNZ Announcement, FOMC Minutes (Jan); Japanese Trade Balance (Jan), Australian Wage Price Index (Q4), UK CPI (Jan), US NY Fed (Feb), Industrial Production (Jan)Thu: Japanese CPI (Jan), Australian Employment (Jan), US Trade Balance (Dec), Weekly/Continuing Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Feb), Pending Home Sales (Jan), EZ Flash Consumer Confidence (Feb), New Zealand Trade Balance (Jan)Fri: Hong Kong markets return from Lunar New Year; ECB EZ Indicator of Negotiated Wages; UK Retail Sales (Jan), PSNB (Jan), EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Feb), Canadian Retail Sales (Jan),US PCE/GDP (Dec/Q4)Japanese Prelim GDP (Sun): Q4 Q/Q GDP is forecast to have risen 0.4%, with Y/Y growth seen at 1.6%. ING expects a more modest 0.3% Q/Q expansion, driven by a rebound in construction as the impact of temporary safety regulations fades and firmer exports supported by robust global semiconductor demand. January trade data highlight continued strength in chip exports, with favourable calendar effects and a low base likely to boost headline export growth. The impact of supplementary budget spending is expected to become more evident in Q1 2026 rather than Q4, while no material effect from China-Japan disputes is anticipated in the Q4 data. Stable political conditions and strong chip demand are also seen underpinning manufacturing and services activity.Canadian CPI (Tue): The Canadian inflation report will help shape expectations for BoC policy. The BoC is currently on hold but is keeping its options open. Recent minutes said the policy rate is on the stimulative side of the Bank’s estimated neutral range, and policymakers agreed that holding rates at the current level was conditional on the economy evolving in line with their outlook, warning that heightened uncertainty has broadened the range of possible outcomes. Members said it was difficult to predict the timing and direction of the next policy move and would continue to monitor risks closely, standing ready to respond if the outlook changes. On inflation, the BoC noted that escalating tensions could disrupt global supply chains and weigh on activity, posing both upside and downside risks to prices. On the USMCA review, it said this posed downside risks to growth and could pull inflation lower if the economy weakens, though higher import costs, potential counter-tariffs and supply chain disruptions could lift inflation. Amid the uncertainty, the BoC agreed to maintain optionality in setting policy. In a speech, Governor Macklem stressed the bank must be careful not to misdiagnose economic weakness, saying policy should not attempt to offset lost supply, particularly as the Canadian economy undergoes structural change. Money markets are pricing no change in rates for the remainder of the year.RBA Minutes (Tue):The RBA will release minutes of its meeting earlier this month, when it raised the Cash Rate for the first time in more than two years by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. The bank said inflation was likely to remain above target for some time and that broad measures of wage growth continued to be strong. It added that labour market conditions were somewhat tight and capacity pressures greater than previously assessed and noted uncertainty around the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation, and the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive. The RBA also published its latest Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, stating that underlying inflation was higher than expected and that GDP growth had continued to pick up, with private demand surprisingly strong. It raised its trimmed mean and CPI inflation forecasts and lifted its December 2025 GDP projection but lowered its year-end GDP forecasts for December 2026 and December 2027. The forecasts assumed the Cash Rate at 4.2% in December 2026 and 4.3% in December 2027. Governor Bullock said at the press conference that the pulse of inflation was too strong and that high inflation hurt all Australians, adding that the Board believed inflation would take longer to return to target and could not allow it to get away.UK Unemployment/Wages (Tue):November’s Unemployment rate came in above consensus at 5.1% (exp. 5.0%), with the overall skew from the series a dovish one, as while the hotter-than-expected wage figure was a hawkish impulse, it is a familiar one. This week’s series is expected to feature a steady unemployment rate and a decline in payrolls. As a reminder, the February BoE MPR saw the peak unemployment forecast raised to 5.3% from the previous, and current, rate of 5.1%; i.e. the MPC expects a further deterioration in the jobs market. Note, given the remarks by BoE’s Bailey in the last statement, wages are perhaps worth watching even closer than normal, after he caveated his increased confidence on the path of wage inflation by adding it is less clear when the inflation downside will feed into wages; i.e., a marked drop in wages could tilt him to a March cut vs current pricing for April. However, overall, the series will inform but is unlikely to determine the timing of the next BoE cut, with the week’s inflation series (see below) more pertinent in that deliberation.RBNZ Announcement (Wed):The RBNZ will hold its first policy meeting of the year next week, where it is widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%, with money markets pricing a 98% probability of no change. The meeting will be the first under Governor Breman, who took office in December. At its previous meeting in November, the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps, its third consecutive reduction, bringing cumulative easing to 325bps since it began its rate-cutting cycle in August 2024. The bank left the door open to further moves, saying future changes to the OCR would depend on how the outlook for medium-term inflation and the economy evolves, although its projections implied a pause through 2026. The RBNZ noted that annual consumer inflation rose to 3% in the September quarter but said spare capacity in the economy should see inflation fall to around 2% by mid-2026, with risks to the outlook balanced. Then-Governor Christian Hawkesby said policymakers were well placed to mitigate risks and that the central projection was for the Cash Rate to remain on hold through 2026, while retaining full optionality with every option on the table. He later acknowledged the bank had lowered the cash rate significantly and was more confident the OCR was now stimulatory, adding that the hurdle for further cuts was high and that it could not keep the door open to easing indefinitely. Governor Breman has also signalled openness to further adjustments, but without urgency, saying the RBNZ had made significant progress towards its mandated objectives and was closely monitoring data, including inflation and GDP. She said there was no preset course for monetary policy and that the bank would adjust if the inflation outlook changed. Breman added that the economic outlook had evolved broadly in line with expectations and that the forward path for the OCR published in the November monetary policy statement pointed to a slight probability of another cut in the near term, though if conditions evolve as expected the OCR is likely to remain at 2.25% for some time.FOMC Minutes (Wed):The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as expected, in a 10-2 vote, with Governors Miran and Waller dissenting in favour of a 25bps reduction. Miran had previously voted for a 50bps cut in December. The January statement upgraded its economic assessment, replacing “economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace” with “expanding at a solid pace”, “job gains have slowed this year” with “job gains have remained low”, and “the unemployment rate has edged up” with it having “shown some signs of stabilisation”. It also simplified “inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated” to “inflation remains somewhat elevated”. In its risk characterisation, December’s addition that the Committee “judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months” was removed, leaving only that it is attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate. The statement’s tone was slightly more positive on the economy and labour market and broadly unchanged on inflation. Ahead of the decision, traders looked for signals on the future policy path, but the statement offered no immediate clues and Chair Powell’s press conference provided little by way of new information. Powell noted that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by the data and balance of risks. He said policy is well positioned, reiterating it is currently within a plausible neutral range, but towards the higher end. If Fed sees goods pricing peaking over this year, that suggests the Fed can loosen policy further. Powell highlighted that data since the December meeting has improved the outlook. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. Goods and tariff-related inflation expected to peak around mid-2026, with many effects already passed through. He noted that the labour market has weakened alongside solid growth, but recent data suggests stabilisation following a period of cooling. Job gains remain subdued, and while risks to employment have diminished, they have not disappeared, making it difficult to judge whether the dual mandate is fully in balance. Since the January meeting, Governor Waller (voter) has argued policy remains too restrictive, the labour market “does not look remotely healthy”, and tariff-driven inflation should be looked through. Governor Miran (voter) has said underlying inflation is not problematic and rates should be materially lower, warning policy may be passively tightening, though he added that after this week’s jobs data his concerns about the labour market have eased slightly. Governor Cook (voter) stressed stalled disinflation and the need to maintain credibility. Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) described policy as well positioned, expects tariff effects to fade and inflation to ease in 2026. Logan and Hammack (both 2026 voters), characterised rates as around neutral, signalling no urgency to cut unless labour conditions deteriorate materially. Among non-voters, Musalem and Schmid cautioned against further easing with inflation near 3%, while Daly, Barkin and Bostic emphasised resilience but warned inflation remains above target. Note, the minutes are an account of the January 28th meeting, so it will not incorporate the January jobs report and CPI data. UK CPI (Wed):December’s print was hotter-than-expected at the headline level, though subject to caveats amid Budget-driven tobacco changes and elevated airfares due to the timing of return flights over the Christmas period. Pertinently, the core Y/Y figure was either in-line or cooler depending on the consensus used; however, all services ticked higher, though by less than some expected. An unwinding of the one-off impacts in December should see the headline moderate in January, with Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasting a 3.0% Y/Y print, though that is above the BoE MPC’s 2.9% forecast. As a reminder, the February MPR saw the inflation forecasts lowered across the next three years, and the statement remarks that the “outlook for inflation over the next six months is notably lower than expected in November”, primarily due to energy prices, including the impact of fiscal policy. The January series will be the main factor informing on whether the BoE cuts in March (-19.5bps priced) or April (-26.9bps). The language from the statement was balanced and kept the focus on the medium term. As a reminder, February was a 5-4 split with Bailey the tie break; on inflation, the Governor said he expects to see “quite a sharp drop in inflation over coming months”. If CPI prints in-line with Pantheon’s view, that is undoubtedly a sharp drop. However, the “coming months” emphasis by Bailey skews the bias to April vs March. Overall, CPI will have the main role to play in determining the timing of a cut, and if we see the moderation desks are looking for in prices, along with continued labour market pressures, a wage pullback and/or soft retail metrics, then March may move towards being priced.Australian Employment (Thu):Westpac expects employment to rise by 40k (prev. +65.2k), with the participation rate edging up to 66.8% (prev. 66.7%) and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2% (prev. 4.1%). The labour market ended 2025 on a choppy note, the bank says, with a weak November followed by a strong December, though analysts caution that seasonal volatility - particularly around year-end and January hiring patterns - complicates the signal. Westpac judges the data reflect a solid finish to 2025 rather than a clear re-tightening in conditions, with employment growth likely near its trough as care-sector effects unwind and private demand stabilises. January data will be closely scrutinised by the RBA amid renewed inflation pressures, with attention on participation dynamics, population re-benchmarking and "marginally attached" workers, which have distorted recent January prints. Westpac expects a flatter employment recovery through 2026 and a gradual drift higher in unemployment over the year.Japanese CPI (Thu):Japan’s CPI is expected to slow sharply, with headline inflation seen at 1.5% Y/Y (prev. 2.1%), according to ING. The deceleration is largely attributed to government energy subsidies and stabilisation in food prices. ING expects inflation to moderate further in the coming months, reinforcing expectations that price pressures may remain contained in the near term. From a BoJ perspective, the central bank held rates steady in January to assess the impact of previous hikes and await key data from the Shunto spring wage negotiations.UK Retail Sales (Fri):Barclay’s consumer spending report for January showed a modest increase in car spending during one of the wettest months on record, with online and entertainment expenditures bolstered as a result. However, the weather would theoretically have had an impact on footfall to stores. Despite that, Barclays’ report showed retail spending rebounded 1.7% Y/Y after a relatively flat December, supported by January sales and online activity. On the point of footfall, the BRC report showed in-store sales having the “highest growth” in over six months, despite the poor weather. Overall, the series should be robust and broadly in-fitting with the December print of 0.4% Y/Y.EZ Flash PMIs (Fri):Expectations are for Services to edge up from the prior reading, with some analysts seeing the Manufacturing component return to expansionary territory. As such, the Composite is expected to rise to 51.7 from 51.3. Taking a look at other activity figures, EZ Retail Sales fell 0.5% in December from +0.1% previously, while German Industrial Production missed forecasts by a wide margin, underscoring the uneven nature of the country’s recovery. This PMI report is unlikely to have a material impact on monetary policy, with the ECB reiterating that the Bank remains in a “good place”. February’s ECB statement said growth is resilient and recent communication has largely reiterated a data-dependent approach. Recent data has been broadly in line with staff projections, with increased focus on the stronger EUR and trade and geopolitical developments. The January report printed slightly below expectations, although the overall trend has been sideways. In the prior reading, HCOB said the “growth trajectory can be described as decent”, though not yet “comfortable”. Regionally, Germany, Italy and Spain have continued to expand since September, while France has been affected by the “difficult political situation”. Since the last report, the political backdrop has stabilised in the short-term after Prime Minister Lecornu forced an amended 2026 budget through.UK Flash PMIs (Fri):Investec forecasts the UK Composite PMI at 53.6, marginally below the prior 53.7, with slight downticks expected in both Manufacturing and Services, suggesting a modest loss of momentum after the upward trend of recent months. Recent activity data have included a subdued December GDP report, alongside weak Manufacturing and Industrial Production figures. The report will be closely watched by policymakers at the BoE, which kept rates unchanged at 3.75% at its January meeting. The 5-4 vote split was more dovish than the expected 7-2. Governor Bailey described activity as “subdued”, while Lombardelli called it “weak”. Ramsden and Dhingra, who dissented in February, also took a downbeat view of the activity environment. The Bank cut its growth forecasts for Q1’26 and Q1’27. Money markets currently assign a 76% chance of a cut in March and have fully priced in a move by April. ING said that if recent weakness in growth and the labour market persists alongside easing wage growth, a March cut is “highly likely”.UK PSNB (Fri):December’s PSNB came in at GBP 11.6bln, around GBP 2.5bln below the consensus figure, however, still at an elevated level and the 10th highest December print on record, with the FY to December tally the 3rd highest on record. January’s data captures capital gains and self-assessment payments ahead of the end-January deadline, and as such the series can be volatile and subject to significant and often one-off swings. As a reminder, the OBR expects receipts from capital gains to increase substantially over the next few years; a factor that may be seen in the January figure if participants elected to sell-off assets ahead of the 2025 Autumn Budget. An increase in such payments (potentially sparking a negative borrowing figure) would be welcome by the Treasury and would, if only temporarily, provide a welcome positive headline on the UK economy for the Labour government at the moment.US PCE (Fri):PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be critical for policymakers and markets in assessing the future path of interest rates. Consensus expects December PCE to show firmer price pressures than recent CPI prints, with measures such as food and producer prices pointing to upside risks. Analysts note that the ‘wedge’ between CPI and PCE could produce a hotter PCE reading, partly because PCE places greater weight on categories where prices are rising more sharply. At his press conference following the FOMC’s January meeting, Chair Powell said estimates based on CPI data indicate headline PCE rose 2.9% Y/Y in December, up from 2.8%, while core PCE, excluding food and energy, likely rose 3.0% Y/Y from 2.8%. He said the elevated readings largely reflect goods inflation boosted by tariffs. The Fed’s December projections pencilled in one additional cut for 2026, though policymakers have recently indicated this depends on further progress towards the inflation target, given the labour market has outperformed expectations. Powell reiterated that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by data and the balance of risks. He said inflation has evolved broadly as expected but remains somewhat elevated, with no progress on core PCE last year as the overshoot was driven mainly by goods prices, tariffs and one-off factors rather than demand. Goods and tariff-related inflation are expected to peak around mid-year, with many effects already passed through. Powell said that if tariff effects on goods prices peak this year, it would signal scope to loosen policy. Short-term market-based inflation expectations have fully retraced since “Liberation Day”, while longer-term measures indicate confidence that inflation will return to 2%.US GDP (Fri): The preliminary Q4 GDP estimate is expected to show US growth cooling from Q3’s 4.4% annualised pace. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker models growth at 3.7%, revised down after softer core retail sales in December and downward revisions to November, pointing to moderation in consumer spending from the prior quarter’s 3.5% pace. Activity nevertheless appears resilient. In its December SEP, the Fed projected 2026 growth at 2.3%, upgraded from 1.8% in its September forecasts; in January, the FOMC described the economy as expanding at a “solid pace”, while Chair Powell said growth is on a firm footing despite trade policy changes, cautioning that quarterly GDP can be volatile. Vice Chair Jefferson has struck a cautiously optimistic tone on 2026, expecting growth slightly above trend. He highlighted the possibility that productivity gains, including from AI investment, could allow faster expansion without reigniting inflation, though he stressed it is too early to assess their durability. Some analysts say focus will be on whether Q4 confirms a controlled slowdown rather than a sharper loss of momentum, and the implications for policy. The Fed’s rate path appears to hinge on further progress towards its 2% inflation goal, with most policymakers seeking clearer evidence of disinflation before backing lower rates.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin Futures are hovering near $68,800 in mid-February 2026, attempting to stabilize after a sharp retracement from last year’s surge above $110,000. At the same time, Ethereum Futures are trading close to $2,050, nearly 50% below their prior highs above $4,000. While crypto appears to be “holding,” the broader backdrop tells a more complex story.Nasdaq Futures, which climbed above 26,000 during the late-2025 expansion phase, have cooled materially and are now trading closer to the 24,800 region. The index is no longer delivering clean upside momentum, and recent weeks show more rotational behavior than sustained expansion. That shift in macro tone matters because crypto’s recent stabilization is occurring within a softer risk environment.The key question for investors right now is whether Bitcoin’s consolidation near $68K represents early accumulation, or simply a pause within a broader distribution phase. Ethereum’s deeper retracement and weaker relative structure add another layer of caution. When cross-asset positioning is examined together rather than in isolation, the message is clear: crypto is not yet leading the next risk-on cycle.Nasdaq Futures: Cooling Momentum Without CapitulationThe broader macro backdrop is critical here.Since peaking above 26,000 in late 2025, Nasdaq Futures have pulled back roughly 5–7 percent. That may not sound dramatic, but the internal structure has shifted. Upside attempts over the past several weeks have required more effort and delivered less follow-through. Downside weeks, by contrast, have produced cleaner directional movement.This matters because crypto does not operate in isolation. When equities enter a rotational or cooling phase, high-beta assets typically require strong independent leadership to outperform. That leadership is currently missing.Importantly, this is not a panic environment. There is no evidence of forced liquidation across equities. Instead, participation has cooled. That subtle distinction changes the probability of what comes next.Rotation tends to produce choppy rallies, not sustained breakouts.Bitcoin: Stabilization After a 37% ResetBitcoin’s move from above $110,000 to the current $68,800 region represents a reset of roughly 37 percent. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced similar retracements within broader cycles, but what makes this phase notable is the nature of the rebound.Over the last several weeks:Bounce attempts have been moderate rather than explosive.Price has not reclaimed prior breakdown zones above $75,000–$80,000.Upside sessions have lacked sustained follow-through.The key structural detail many overlook is this: stabilization alone does not equal accumulation.True accumulation phases tend to show expanding participation alongside improving upward efficiency. What we are currently observing is compression — price holding, but not aggressively reclaiming lost ground.That distinction may determine whether Bitcoin forms a base in the coming months or drifts lower in alignment with broader macro softness.Ethereum: The 50% Drawdown Tells a Different StoryEthereum’s situation is more fragile.From highs above $4,000 to current levels near $2,050, ETH is down nearly 50 percent. That magnitude of drawdown exceeds Bitcoin’s retracement and reinforces Ethereum’s role as the higher-beta component of the crypto complex.More importantly, Ethereum has not demonstrated relative leadership during this stabilization period.In recent weeks:ETH has underperformed Bitcoin on rebound attempts.Upside moves have stalled below prior structural resistance.The asset remains closer to breakdown territory than breakout territory.This relative weakness is new information that often goes unnoticed. While headlines focus on “crypto holding,” the internal hierarchy shows Ethereum acting as the pressure point.Historically, when Ethereum underperforms Bitcoin during stabilization phases, it suggests caution rather than imminent upside acceleration.Relative Strength Hierarchy: The Market’s Hidden SignalWhen we rank the assets by structural strength as of February 2026:Nasdaq Futures – cooling but structurally intactBitcoin Futures – stabilizing but not leadingEthereum Futures – weakest and most fragileThis ranking is not based on price alone. It reflects directional efficiency, recovery quality, and relative performance across multiple timeframes.The absence of a leader is the key takeaway.In strong risk-on environments, one asset typically pulls ahead decisively. That is not happening right now. Instead, we see synchronized stabilization within a cooling macro regime.That combination reduces the probability of immediate upside acceleration.What Would Change the Narrative?For sentiment to shift meaningfully:Nasdaq Futures would need to regain sustained upside momentum and hold above recent consolidation levels.Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $75,000–$80,000 region with follow-through.Ethereum would need to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis, not just bounce alongside it.Until those developments occur, rallies may represent rotational rebounds rather than confirmed trend reversals.Why This Phase Is Different From Prior Crypto CorrectionsIn previous cycles, Bitcoin often decoupled from equities during critical turning points. In early 2026, that decoupling has not materialized.Instead:Crypto is stabilizing within a cooling macro regime.Ethereum is showing disproportionate weakness.Bitcoin is acting defensive rather than aggressive.This suggests the current environment is not one of panic liquidation, but neither is it one of renewed expansion.It is transitional.Transitional markets demand patience.Final Outlook: Rotation Before ExpansionAs of mid-February 2026:Bitcoin holds near $68,800 after a major reset.Ethereum trades near $2,050, down nearly 50 percent from highs.Nasdaq Futures remain below prior peaks, reflecting macro cooling.The data does not yet confirm accumulation across crypto. Instead, it points to stabilization within a broader rotational phase.For investors, that means monitoring relative strength and leadership, not just price bounces.For traders, it means recognizing that in cooling regimes, upside follow-through must prove itself.The next major move will likely begin with one asset breaking this hierarchy, not by bouncing, but by leading.Until then, the crypto market remains in reset mode rather than expansion mode. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

US January CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expectedFed's Goolsbee sees encouraging and concerning parts of the CPI reportUS Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision dayUS Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to TrumpOil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output hikes from AprilThe haven from the AI disruption might be a HALOBoE's Pill: Disinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hopedMarkets:Gold up $112 to $5032WTI crude oil down 24-cents to $62.60US 10-year yields down 5.4 bps to 4.05%Bitcoin up $3000 to $68,815GBP leads, AUD lagsS&P 500 flatUS equity futures were deeply negative ahead of the CPI report but rebounded to unchanged afterwards as the numbers mostly cooled. After the open, bids steadily picked up and the S&P rose nearly 50 points at the peak. But late in the day the bears took over again and sent it into negative territory before a last minute bounce to flat. Shares of Amazon fell for the ninth straight day.The reaction elsewhere to the data was typically dovish as the US dollar slid and bonds rallied. The strength in fixed income is increasingly noticeable as investors look for a safe haven away from the intense volatility. The pound led the way on the hawkish comments from BOE chief economist Pill. The initial push came in Europe as cable rose a quarter cent to 1.3625 but after some selling into the London fix there was a second wave of bids late and a finish above 1.3650. Elsewhere it was more of a choppy day in FX with small moves.Gold posted an impressive rebound following the mysterious gap down yesterday. The $150 straight-line drop has almost been completely recovered as it climbed $80 in North American trade.Note that Monday is a holiday in Canada and the USA; enjoy the long weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US House voted against tariffs this week and the Senate is expected to follow suit. They will surely be vetoed by President Trump but that move gives some cover to the Supreme Court ahead of its big decision on tariffs.The court today announced that Feb 20, 24 and 25 will all be 'decision days' or days when they will render opinions. As a reminder, they don't pre-announce which cases they will be ruling on, so it could be tariffs and it could be one of the other dozens of cases before the court.Officials have until June to make a decision but given the gravity of the tariffs, it's expected to come sooner. The decisions are rendered at 10 am ET or just afterwards so on those three days we will be standing by and markets will be holding their breath.Previously, administration officials have signaled they could easily reconstitute tariffs but more recently, they toned down that rhetoric, highlighting that it could be difficult. That's a rare change of rhetoric and indicates the court decision could actually lower tariffs. If that's the case, it would clear the way for further Fed rate cuts and provide a double dose of good news for US companies. The Major Questions DoctrineCritical in the decision will be the reasoning of the court, particularly if that extends to some of the other measures the White House is considering. One of the avenues the court could go is the "major questions doctrine", something conservative justices pushed for in the Biden administration.Under the doctrine, the Supreme Court has rejected agency claims of regulatory authority when the underlying claim of authority concerns an issue of "vast economic and political significance" and Congress has not clearly empowered the agency with authority over the issueChallengers say this is a textbook major questions case. IEEPA shouldn't be read to give the president this power precisely because it would have such vast economic and political significance — and under the major questions doctrine, if Congress wants to give the president sweeping authority over matters of major economic and political significance, it has to say so clearly. Justice Barrett asked a pointed question: whether the government could identify any other place in the US Code where the phrase "regulate importation" had been used to confer tariff-imposing authority. The Solicitor General struggled to answer.When the government argued the major questions doctrine doesn't apply to foreign affairs, Justice Sotomayor shot back: "We have never applied it to foreign affairs, but this is a tariff. This is a tax."That kind of reasoning might apply to any attempts to reconstitute tariffs if it's the reason tariffs are struck down. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments:Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPIWe are still seeing pretty high services inflationHopes we've seen the peak impact of tariffsThe job market has been steady, only modest coolingRates can still go down but need to see progress on inflationConsumers should hold up if the jobs market is stable and inflation easesI don't know how restrictive Fed policy isHigh services inflation is worrisomeWe are not on a path back to 2% inflation, stuck around 3%December CPI came in slightly cooler than expected, with headline inflation rising 0.2% month-over-month versus the 0.3% consensus, while the year-over-year rate held at 2.5%. Core inflation matched expectations at 2.5% annually and 0.3% monthly. Real weekly earnings flipped positive at +0.5%, a notable improvement from the prior revised -0.5%. Supercore printed at 2.7% year-over-year. Markets reacted with a modest dovish repricing of Fed expectations, pressuring the dollar lower. In the bond market, the notable move this week has been in the long end, following a surprisingly strong auction and the turmoil in equities. Thirty-year yields have slid to 4.70% from 4.90% this week.The US economic calendar was busy this week but quiets considerably next week, in part due to the President's Day holiday on Monday. On Tuesday we get the Empire FEd and NAHB housing market index. Wednesday we get durable goods and housing starts. Thursday we get initial jobless claims as usual and Friday is the PCE report.There is a smattering of Fedspeak throughout the week but it's tough to imagine that any of it will make any real waves given the data dependence that most policymakers are preaching. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We are done with the big banks and Big Tech. Now we get the real economy. Next week's earnings calendar is a tug-of-war between the resilient service-spending consumer and the battered industrial/goods sector.Here is the playbook for the week.Walmart (WMT)Thursday (Before Open) If "General Merch" (electronics, clothes, home goods) is positive, the consumer is feeling confident. If growth is purely from Grocery (inflation-driven necessities), the consumer is gasping for air. On inflation, watch for comments on deflation in goods. If Walmart mentions "rolling back prices" aggressively to move inventory, that’s a disinflationary signal for the Fed (and bearish for margins).2. DoorDash (DASH)Wednesday (After Close)Everyone says the consumer is "stretched," yet they are still paying $30 for a lukewarm burrito delivered to their door. If frequency holds up despite rising fees, it confirms that the "convenience economy" is inelastic. This is why services inflation (core PCE) refuses to die. A miss here would be the first real sign that the middle-class consumer is finally cutting discretionary "vices."John Deere (DE)Thursday (Before Open)Management has already hinted that 2026 will be the "bottom" of the cycle and the market has taken that to heart with a huge run-up in the stock price lately. If they further guide for strength, it signals that the industrial recession is ending. If they cut guidance further due to "tariff uncertainty" or weak export demand, the global growth narrative takes a hit.Palo Alto Networks (PANW)Tuesday (After Close)Is AI sucking all the oxygen (and budget) out of the room? Is anything safe? Cybersecurity is usually the last thing companies cut and it should be growing due to AI threats. If Palo Alto shows "billings fatigue" or longer sales cycles, it means CIOs are slashing core budgets to fund their AI experiments. That is a warning sign for the broader software sector (IGV), which has already been suffering.Analog Devices (ADI)Wednesday (Before Open)Unlike Nvidia (AI), ADI sells chips for cars, factories, and 5G towers. This is the "old school" economy chipmaker. We need to hear that the "inventory correction" is over. If ADI says customers are finally restocking industrial chips, it’s a bullish signal for manufacturing.6. Wayfair (W)Home builders quietly hit a record high on Friday on rate cut hopes. You don't buy new furniture if you aren't moving houses. Wayfair is a direct proxy for existing home sales, which were battered this week. Watch the Active Customer Count, this metric has been bleeding for quarters. If this stabilizes, it suggests the "housing freeze" is thawing and people are finally accepting 6% mortgage rates as the new normal. Opendoor (Thursday after close) is another housing proxy to watch.Full run down:MondayUS and Canadian markets are closed for holidays.TuesdayBefore the open: Energy Transfer, Medtronic, SunCoke EnergyAfter the close: Hecla Mining, Palo Alto Networks, Cadence Design Systems, Devon Energy, EQT, SSR Mining, Toll Brothers, Kenvue, MKS Instruments, FirstEnergyWednesdayBefore the open: Analog Devices, SolarEdge, Garmin, Moody’s, Liberty Global, ProPetro, Constellium, Verisk, Fiverr, ICLAfter the close: Kinross Gold, Carvana, Coeur Mining, Pan American Silver, DoorDash, Figma, Royal Gold, Equinox Gold, eBay, RemitlyThursdayBefore the open: Walmart, First Majestic Silver, Quanta Services, John Deere, Lemonade, Klarna, Visteon, Wayfair, Endava, NICEAfter the close: Opendoor, Transocean, Newmont, Akamai, CompoSecure, Live Nation, Sprouts Farmers Market, Texas Roadhouse, CentraGold, AXTFridayBefore the open: AngloGold Ashanti, Telix Pharmaceuticals, Portland General Electric, PPL, Oil States International, FET (Forum Energy Technologies), Lamar Advertising, Hudbay Minerals, Western Union, Cogent Communications This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US stocks have turned around nicely today led by the Russell 2000, which is up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up 0.6% and eyes are on software stocks. The IGV software ETF is up 2.3% after an utterly bruising performance so far this year.I'm careful not to lean too hard on this index because 20% of it is Microsoft and I see it as more of a disrupter than a disruptee. That said, it's been beaten up as well.If you look at the chart, it's found some support at last week's lows and if that continues to hold, the bulls could pile back in. Here are some beaten up software names that are doing well today:Salesforce +3.4%WDAY +1.8%NOW +4%Moody's +3.4%SPGI +2.7%In the bigger picture, it's still the old economy and mining stocks that are leading the way today.NEM +6.9%Ingersoll Rand +6.5%Vistra +4.5%Freight companies are also bouncing back from yesterday's AI disruption puke.Looking at the chart, there is a range from roughly 6800-7000 and that's the space to watch.I tend to think the downside is more vulnerable because the AI trade isn't going away but it's the kind of chart where you wait for a break rather than picking sides. Next week's calendar is far lighter on both economic data and earnings. That could help to cool volatility but I should note that the Supreme Court is back in session so the tariff decision could come. This earnings season was something of a disaster as even companies that reported beats often saw their stocks beaten up. I worry that MSFT's 12% drop on earnings was a powerful signal that nothing is safe. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's not a proper investing theme until there is an acronym.I've been writing for a few weeks about old economy stocks making a comeback but it's been tough to frame exactly the kinds of companies that are best built for what's coming. The market is frightened by disruption and that's why software stocks have seen a massive re-rating lower, with many falling 30-50% in a few weeks. There's a cottage industry developing in commentating on which software companies will actually be disrupted by AI but to me, it's tough to say in the software and tech space as the essential function of AI is intelligence and all these white collar companies are powered by brains not steel.In contrast, money has flowed into sectors and companies that won't be disrupted by AI. I like the framing of HALO from Compound Advisors, which stands for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence.The asset part is self-explanatory and the 'low obsolescence' means that they can't be disrupted by AI. Here are a few names they highlight:Phillips 66 and Corning and Applied Materials and Vulcan Materials and Delta and Caterpillar and Ventas and Hershey may have very little to do with each other based on conventional GICS classification. But in my classification system, updated for today, they are all HALOIn the past, the market liked asset light models because they required less debt and had better margins. When you layer growth onto that, it results in supercharged profitability. That's led to 30-50x multiples in a crowded space but is quickly reversing as disruption is priced in.Asset heavy companies have been slow to grow because of huge capital requirements but since we're in a rate cutting cycle, that debt is less burdensome and that could be durable in an era of structurally high unemployment. It also means that the companies are virtually impossible to disrupt -- no one is building a new coast-to-coast railway.In addition (and I've made this point before), venture capital for the past 15 years has been so focused on tech and software that there is no money or expertise for developing startup heavy asset firms. The VC desert is the new moat.But that's not all. The low margin nature of these businesses has always been a drag on multiples but now I think it's an opportunity. These companies can't really be disrupted by AI but they can benefit from it.Picture a company with a $10 billion asset base with revenues of $2 billion and 3% margins. Think utilities, pipelines, ports, commodity producers, railways, airlines and refineries. The opportunity with AI is to improve efficiency. Even boosting margins by 1 percentage point in these companies can be a huge lift to profitability and cash generation. I would particularly look at companies with high employee counts or a high reliance on consultants/sub-contractors that can be trimmed. For these companies, AI is an optimization tool. If an airline can squeeze 2% fuel savings routing, dispatch, and operations then it's not revolutionary but it's a tailwind. If a refinery can optimize the fuel mix, monitor operations or better schedule downtime, it's meaningful.A SaaS company running 40% margins doesn't have much fat to optimize. But a pipeline operator or airline running 2-5% margins has enormous operational surface area where small AI-driven efficiencies compound into meaningful earnings growth.That's why I prefer to focus on the low margin aspect.I would rather call them HALM -- High Assets Low Margin -- but that's not as catchy.I like the framing of CNBC's Mike Santoli yesterday who talked about eye-watering capex from companies like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and OpenAI:"The hyperscalers are spending $700 billion. That better be killing something or what are we doing here?"How about this? Tangible Assets, Not Killable or TANK stocks.Or maybe MOAT stocks: Massive Operations, Asset-Thick.How about RAMP: Real Assets, Margin Potential.In any case, you get the idea. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview: A Mixed Day Across the MarketThe stock market today showcases a complex landscape, with varied performances across sectors. Leading the charge, the healthcare sector is basking in green, while technology shows a mix of highs and lows.? Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) surged by 1.40%, riding on positive sentiments, while Merck (MRK) continues its upward trend with a 1.92% increase. Collectively, these gains underscore robust investor confidence in drug manufacturers.? Technology: Mixed emotions run through technology stocks, with Oracle (ORCL) experiencing a promising 1.69% rise, but Nvidia (NVDA) dwindling slightly by 0.41%. The semiconductor space struggles as Micron (MU) slips by 3.16%, revealing investor caution.? Financials: The financial sector faces downward pressure, notably with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) plunging by 1.86%, reflecting ongoing market hesitancy amidst economic adjustments.? Consumer and Retail: Major players like Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) show minor setbacks, dropping 0.27% and 0.89% respectively, possibly signaling consumer sentiment shifts as the holiday shopping season approaches.Market Mood and Trends: Navigating Uncertain WatersTodays’ market reveals a cautiously optimistic mood, as investors gauge economic indicators and sector-specific news. While some tech giants simmer, healthcare's strength offers glimpses of stability amidst turbulent times. This mixed sentiment could dictate forthcoming market behavior, with investors eyeing upcoming federal policies and quarterly earnings.Strategic Recommendations: Seeking Balance in VolatilityGiven the current market dynamics, investors should consider fortifying portfolios by embracing diversified strategies. Pay close attention to:Healthcare: The sector appears poised for growth, suggesting potential long-term investments.Technology: Exercise caution as semiconductors underperform, focusing instead on resilient players like Oracle.Financials: Monitor developing economic policies that may influence banking stocks adversely.Stay tuned to InvestingLive.com for real-time updates and insights as the week unfolds, ensuring you're equipped to make informed decisions amidst the market's twists and turns. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

It might be the result of a brutally cold winter so far but Canadian consumer spending dipped in January, according to the latest spending tracker from RBC.Using cardholder data, Canada's largest bank indicated that spending fell across discretionary goods, services and essentials in the month.The bank downplayed the decline, noting that it came after a particularly strong December.December had been an especially strong for goods tied to holiday shopping, and January largely retraced some of those earlier gains. The reversal points to a normalization following elevated year-end spending rather than a sudden deterioration in household demand.Essentials spending also declined in January, extending softer tone already evident from late 2025. By contrast, discretionary services spending edged lower, but remained the most resilient of the three major groupingsThe bank also cited severe winter weather noting that spending fell in Ontario on peak storm days. Another soft area was housing-related spending in light of the persistent slide in housing prices in much of the country.RBC demonstrated the storm related dips: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.7%m/m CPI +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior m/m reading was +0.3%Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.3% prior (revised to -0.5%)Core inflation :Ex food and energy +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expectedPrior ex food and energy +2.5%Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp Prior core m/m +0.2%Core goods +1.1%Core services +2.9% y/ySupercore +2.7% y/yUnrounded numbers:Core +0.281% m/m seasonally adjusted, +0.437% NSAThere has been a slight dovish shift in Fed pricing following the data and we can see that in a softer US dollar as well. S&P 500 futures are now flat, erasing the earlier decline.Notably, October CPI data was not collected due to a government shutdown, and November data collection began later than usual, capturing more seasonal holiday discounting. Economists widely cautioned that these disruptions may have artificially depressed the readings. Meat prices were a standout concern, soaring 8.9% annually — the sharpest increase since 2022 — with raw ground beef up nearly 15%. While the cooler-than-expected report was welcomed by markets and supported the case for continued Fed rate cuts, analysts stressed that the December report would provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends.On a two-month basis (September to November), the all items index rose 0.2% seasonally adjusted, with core CPI also up 0.2% over that span, implying roughly 0.1% monthly readings for both October and November. Shelter costs, typically one of the stickiest inflation components, rose just 0.2% over the two-month period, slowing sharply from a 3.6% annual pace in September to 3.0% in November. Food prices increased 2.6% annually, down from 3.1% in September, while the energy index jumped 4.2% year-over-year, driven by a 6.9% surge in electricity costs.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November 2025, a notable deceleration from the 3.0% pace recorded in September. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, increased 2.6% year-over-year — its lowest reading since March 2021. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's a mixed up week with non-farm payrolls already passed but CPI scheduled for today. It's a big one as it could re-frame the debate about how many rate cuts are possible. Notably, despite the strong non-farm payrolls on Wednesday, the market isn't convinced the Fed will hold. Year-end pricing for rate cuts is up to 59 bps from 48 bps last week.I think the shift in pricing is more-reflective of what's been happening in stock markets as AI disruption is priced in, particularly in software stocks. The market might be looking at layoffs, economic disruption and multiple contraction. The Fed has been responsive to equity declines in the past, for better or worse.On CPI, the headline is expected to rise +0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Core is also seen at +0.3% and +2.5%.We have some great previews on the report:What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?This one notes that there is somewhat of a skew towards a higher y/y reading in core and headline.US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments?From Justin:As always, the focus will stay on core prices when taking in the report as a whole. And if the annual estimate continues to keep in the middle range between 2% to 3%, it will be tough to see the Fed taking on a much more dovish stance than what they are sticking with currently.In another note:JPMorgan’s US Market Intelligence desk said weaker retail sales and high-frequency indicators have increased the importance of the CPI release, adding that a hawkish CPI print is more likely than a dovish outcome, but does not expect a strong market reaction to a stagflationary reading.Here is the chart: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US CPI preview:What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?US January CPI report to offer a cleaner read on inflation developments?Headlines:US futures drop lower as equities look to end the week with a whimperGold at risk of another selloff as traders turn their focus to the US CPI reportHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output hikes from AprilEU trade surplus shrinks further in 2025 as US exports tumble while Chinese imports surgedChina holds roundtable meeting with big German companies in BeijingTrump reportedly weighs up plans to scale back on steel and aluminium tariffsUS Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to TrumpECB policymaker Kazāks: Now is not the time to move interest ratesSwitzerland January CPI +0.1% vs +0.1% y/y expectedSpain January final CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y prelimEurozone Q4 GDP second estimate +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelimChina January M2 money supply +9.0% vs +8.4% y/y expectedMarkets:Dollar slightly firmer; USD/JPY up 0.4% to 153.30, AUD/USD down 0.5% to 0.7055European indices slightly lower at the balance; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%Precious metals recover slightly after a quick and sharp drop yesterdayGold up 1.0% to $4,969, silver up 3.0% to $77.40Oil down on report that OPEC+ may resume production hikes in AprilWTI crude oil down 0.8% to $62.40US 10-year yields flat at 4.105%Bitcoin up 1.9% to $67,055There were plenty of headlines to move the session along but none of which mattered all too much, as markets have their sole focus on the US CPI report coming up later today. That's the key risk event and will be the deciding US data release this week, after markets struggled for firm direction following the non-farm payrolls on Wednesday.It will be a big one to wrap up the week, with it being a long weekend in the US as well as extended holidays in China next week.In terms of market action, there wasn't anything that stood out in particular in European trading. The dollar kept firmer in a more solid position, with EUR/USD ranging around 1.1850-60 for the most part. Large option expiries at 1.1850 is helping to keep things in check there.Meanwhile, USD/JPY is seen up 0.4% to 153.30 and AUD/USD is down 0.5% to 0.7055 as the dollar kept steadier throughout.Besides that, equities were sluggish with US futures keeping a drag on overall risk sentiment. The focus stays on the AI disruption and software stocks in general. And that is weighing on the market mood on the session. European indices are down across the board with US futures also keeping lower by around 0.2% on the day.In other markets, precious metals are up slightly after the sharp and sudden drop in US trading yesterday. It's not indicative of much with market players eyeing volatility in risk trades as well with having to focus on the reaction to the US CPI report later. Gold is up 1% on the day to $4,969 with silver up 3% to $77.40.Late on in the session, oil was a notable mover with prices falling after a Reuters report highlighting that OPEC+ may hike production again in April. WTI crude oil dropped from $63.00 to $62.40 now as it moves to test the 200-day moving average again.Elsewhere, Bitcoin is seen up nearly 2% to just above $67,000 but remains poised for a fourth consecutive weekly drop.Well, it's all riding on the US CPI report next to see if there will be more drama in ending the week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The process of disinflation is intact and not completeWe need to maintain monetary policy restrictivenessCore inflation is falling again after having stalledI hope inflation expectations will fall with slowing inflationUnderlying inflation should be the focus of policyDisinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hopedUnderlying inflation looks more like 2.5%, not 2%Monetary policy stance is still restrictiveWe are not seeing a collapse in activity, forward looking indicators do not suggest this is likelyProductivity improvements are cyclical and mechanicalTrend productivity not going back to where it wasDisinflation in underlying services is flatteningWe should be cautious on the last mileRates are currently a bit too lowHolding rates at this level should be enough to control inflationBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill has signalled that while the battle against rising prices is moving in the right direction, there's still more to do to get back to the 2% target. He is cautiously optimistic but wary of declaring an early victory.Pill notes that the process of disinflation remains intact, though he admits it has been neither as rapid nor as convincing as policymakers had initially hoped. While the headline figures may fluctuate, the "underlying" figures is what the Bank is focused on. Pill suggests that underlying inflation is currently tracking closer to 2.5% rather than the BoE’s 2% target. A particular point of concern is the "flattening" of disinflation within the services sector, which remains stubborn despite broader price cools. On a positive note, core inflation has begun to fall again after a period of stagnation, providing some evidence that the current policy is working.Despite some calls for aggressive rate cuts, Pill’s stance remains firmly rooted in restrictiveness. He argues that the current monetary policy stance must remain tight to ensure expectations continue to trend downward alongside slowing inflation.Addressing the broader health of the UK economy, Pill dismissed fears of an imminent "collapse in activity." Forward-looking indicators suggest stability rather than a sharp downturn. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

If anything it done, it would be clarification on incidental objectsSpoke to the USTR this morning, we'll see if there's a narrowingHe also weighs in on the Fed chair drama involving Senator Tillis, who might want to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh i.e. Trump's pick to replace Powell.We'll see where the probe goesTillis wants to put a hold on any voteImportant to proceed with Senate hearingsI think we have an agreement on the hearingsMeanwhile, he's also touching on trade with China a little:We do not want to decouple from China, we want to de-riskWe want to engage in fair tradeOn the metals tariffs, it is related to the earlier headline here: Trump reportedly weighs up plans to scale back on steel and aluminium tariffsSo, that will be something to watch out for as it is more pertinent to the domestic political situation whereby Trump wants to bolster his approval ratings ahead of the midterms later in the year.Besides that, the other comments are rather pedestrian. They aren't really offering anything much as they are things we already know from recent developments.But I guess with regards to China trade relations, the fact that he is trying to be cordial says a lot about how the US administration is looking to keep the peace before Trump's visit to China in April. That fits with the report yesterday here, which outlines the US shelving key tech curbs against China for now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSame as we saw for gold, yesterday we got a quick selloff in silver without any clear catalyst, although half of the losses were eventually pared back. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Today, the focus is on the US CPI report as it’s going to be a big risk event for precious metals. The market is pricing 58 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a hawkish repricing in case the data comes out strong. In such a scenario, we will likely see silver selling off again and potentially reaching new lows.On the other hand, a soft report shouldn’t change much in terms of near-term Fed policy, but it will keep the dovish bets in place which should act as support for silver.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver continues to consolidate between the trendline and the major swing high around the 92.00 handle. What level is going to be tested first will likely be decided by today’s US CPI report. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see there’s not much we can see on this timeframe either, but the fact that we are making lower highs could be a dangerous signal for the bulls as a test of the trendline might have higher probabilities. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. If the price pulls back to the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to position for drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the major swing level around the 92.00 handle. Watch out for the US CPI report today as it could trigger big moves in the market. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The sources are saying that OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output hikes starting from April. However, the bloc has not yet made a firm decision on the matter and that talks will continue ahead of their 1 March meeting.The headline is enough to bring about a dip in oil prices, with WTI crude falling from around $63.00 to near $62.30 currently. That's seeing price fall by 0.9% on the day and coming back towards a key test of the 200-day moving average:That marks a key test on the charts for oil prices, after having to deal with constant US-Iran geopolitical uncertainty in recent weeks. The rebound in late January is still largely sustained, but only by the key technical level highlighted above.A break back below the 200-day moving average frees up room for oil to drop back towards the $60 mark potentially.While OPEC+ is coming back into the volatility equation for the oil market, do keep an eye out still for US-Iran headlines in the meantime. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Software stocks have been under heavy pressure as of late amid concerns of AI disruptions to the space. But yesterday, we're starting to see that spill over to some other parts of the market you'd least expect. It was quite a blowout in Wall Street: Every industry is one AI headline away from a brutal routAnd while we're seeing some stocks get annihilated, somehow the S&P 500 is still just 2.5% away from its record high. That speaks a lot about what's holding up major indices in the US at the moment. But even so, there are going to be nervous hands today with US futures sitting lower and the charts pointing to a test of the 100-day moving average for the index.It's now a question of whether the individual stock-level blowouts are starting to trickle over. And all of this has stemmed from worries due to AI disruption.Jefferies is weighing in on the matter, arguing that the market reaction may be overblown. However, they are also keeping cautious in not wanting to be buying the dip too early."We do not agree with the frenzy, but we also know not to stand in the way of position unwinds and flows."Adding that:"Companies which could show cost advantages from AI would be the winners while companies where the revenue stream is getting impacted would be losers. For now, we would recommend investors investing time and effort in identifying winners and losers, and keep powder dry."Given the potential for the S&P 500 to break lower technically, it's a fair call in my books. However, the big caveat in all this is that it is going to take time for firms to sort out their own mess and for markets to try and weed out the bad apples.It's not as easy as just looking at names and what these companies do and then going with that. If this week's rout has taught us anything, it is that especially.We're now in a new phase in the AI trade and the start of the year has shown how quickly the narratives can shift. We've moved from focusing on profitability to power and data centers, to investors demanding firms to "show me the money", and then now this. It's all about who can integrate AI in the most efficient manner in terms of profitability and capital costs. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar spiked higher following the strong US NFP report on Wednesday as the market pared back slightly Fed rate cut bets, but surprisingly gave back all the gains soon after. Maybe the market is still too convinced of more labour market weakness to come, or it decided to wait for the US CPI. Whatever the reason, the data since the start of the year has been clearly pointing to improving conditions that do not justify further rate cuts. Today, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The Fed doesn't see the labour market contributing to inflationary pressures given the lower wage growth and higher productivity, so it could still cut rates solely based on more inflation easing (barring a quick deterioration in the labour market).If we get an in-line or soft CPI, there shouldn't be much change in terms of market pricing as the two rate cuts expected by the market are already above the Fed's projection. Nonetheless, we could see a dovish type of reaction in the market with the US dollar coming under some pressure.On the other hand, a hot report will likely trigger a stronger hawkish reaction following the hot NFP report on Wednesday. In this case, the US Dollar would likely rally across the board.INR:The Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar, but the recent positive developments on the tariffs and inflation front gave the INR a boost. In fact, the US and India finally reached a trade deal and President Trump announced that he will lower the tariffs from 25% to 18%. The RBI held interest rates steady at the last meeting and yesterday we saw inflation rising further in January to 2.75% from 1.33% in December, beating the 2.5% forecast. This should push rate cuts aside for the time being. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR is rejecting the lower bound of the channel as the dip-buyers continue to step in to position for a rally into the upper bound of the channel around the 93.00 handle. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to open the door for new lows with the 89.50 level as the first target.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see a strong resistance zone around the 91.00 handle where we have also the confluence with a downward trendline. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to target a break below the lower bound of the channel. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will continue to step in around the lower bound of the channel and look for a break above the resistance to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for short opportunities around the resistance and pile in with more conviction on a break below the lower bound of the channel.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.