If you've been watching the Canadian curve steepen with bets on Bank of Canada hikes, CIBC has a message for you: Not so fast.Following the November CPI release earlier today, CIBC’s Andrew Grantham is out with a note pouring cold water on the recent hawkish repricing in the market. While headline inflation held steady at 2.2%, Grantham argues the details don't support the aggressive pricing for hikes we've seen creeping into the strip before the end of 2026.The "Push and Pull" keeps the Bank on holdGrantham describes the current environment as a "push and pull" dynamic. You have the "push" of stronger food and gasoline prices—grocery costs just saw their biggest monthly jump since March —being offset by the "pull" of softer core inflation.That leaves the Bank of Canada in a bind, but a stable one.Key takeaways from CIBC:The Sweet Spot (sort of): Underlying inflation is sitting around 2.5%. That is still "too high" to justify any further interest rate cuts right now.The Pushback: However, the data isn't hot enough to validate the market's recent pricing for rate hikes. Pricing is currently at 12% for a hike in September or sooner with one hike at 92% by year end.Volatility Ahead: Don't get chopped up by headline volatility in the coming months. Grantham warns that base effects from last year's GST/HST holiday will make the headline numbers noisy, even as core measures (excluding tax changes) likely continue to ease.The bottom line from CIBC is that the Bank of Canada is locked into a "prolonged pause". That's likely to make the Fed side of the equation more meaningful for USD/CAD.They continue to forecast the overnight rate holding steady at the current 2.25% level throughout the entirety of next year. Bond yields and the Loonie drifted marginally lower on the print, suggesting traders are already starting to unwind some of those hike bets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD moved higher last week, and in the process extended above its 100-day moving average, signaling an improvement in the near-term technical picture. The upside push carried the pair toward the lower boundary of a key swing area between 0.5830 and 0.5844, an area that has acted as resistance in the past. Sellers leaned against that zone, limiting upside follow-through and forcing a pullback into the end of the week.Sellers defend resistance, buyers protect supportAs the week progressed, selling pressure pushed the pair back toward the 100-day moving average, which acted as a magnet for price action. In early trading today, the downside extended further, with NZDUSD sliding toward the upper boundary of a prior swing area between 0.5748 and 0.57609. The low reached 0.5765, just above that support zone, before buyers stepped in and sparked a rebound.Natural resistance caps the rebound near 0.5800The bounce off support has so far been contained by natural resistance near 0.5800, an area that also coincides closely with the 100-day moving average. That confluence has once again proven difficult to overcome, with price stalling near the level and reinforcing its importance as a short-term dividing line between bullish and bearish control.Short-term range battle mirrors AUDUSDLike AUDUSD, NZDUSD is currently caught between nearby support and resistance, with neither buyers nor sellers able to assert sustained control. Buyers continue to defend dips toward the mid-0.57 area, while sellers remain active on rallies toward the 0.5800–0.5840 region. The tightening range suggests the market is coiling, as traders wait for the next decisive push to set direction.Bottom lineNZDUSD sits at a technical crossroads. Holding above the 0.5748–0.5761 support zone keeps buyers engaged, while a break back above the 100-day moving average and the 0.5830–0.5844 resistance area would tilt the bias more decisively higher. Until one of those levels gives way, range-bound trade and patience are likely to dominate the near-term outlook.Watch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving this move in real-time. I outline exactly where the risk lies, how to interpret these moving average bounces, and map out the next targets that matter most for the NZD/USD currency pair.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The New York Fed Pres. Williams is speaking and says:Very supportive” of the U.S. central bank’s decision to cut interest rates last weekExpects coming job data will show gradual coolingToo early to say what the Fed will need to do in JanuaryStrong markets are part of the reason why the economy will grow robustly in 2026Market valuations are elevated, but there are reasons for current pricingWhat constitutes ample reserves will change over timeSome signs that parts of the underlying economy are not as strong as GDP data suggestsAmple reserves system is working very wellFinancial system is basically at an ample-reserves levelOverall policy takeaway: Bias is mildly dovish and balanced. Williams clearly supports the recent rate cut and points to gradual labor-market cooling and pockets of underlying economic softness. At the same time, his comments on strong markets and robust growth expectations for 2026 keep the message firmly data-dependent rather than strongly dovish.Earlier today, WIlliam's said that policy is well positioned for what lies ahead, as risks to the labor market have risen while risks to inflation have eased. He characterized tariffs as a one-off price adjustment that should not spill over into broader inflation and said uncertainty around tariffs has declined notably. Williams expects inflation to ease to 2.5% in 2026 and reach 2% in 2027, while projecting GDP growth of about 2.25% in 2026, well above the pace expected for 2025. On the labor side, he sees gradual cooling, but also projects the unemployment rate will decline over the next few years, framing the Fed’s baseline outlook as “a pretty good outcome.” He noted that Fed policy has moved closer to neutral from a modestly restrictive stance, though inflation remains too high, suggesting no strong signal for imminent action even as markets price some chance of a January rate cut and multiple cuts in 2026. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Gold has been an incredible ride this year, up 64% year-to-date. Silver has nearly doubled that return and gold equities are up a massive 130%. Naturally, after a run like that, the "take profit" crowd is starting to get loud.However, Scotiabank released a note this morning titled "Here's Why We Don't Give Up on the Gold Trade," arguing that they remain Overweight on the sector and see further upside ahead.Their main argument? The "broad and synchronized" tailwinds that fueled this rally are unlikely to reverse next year.Here are the 6 catalysts Scotiabank is watching:The Debt Spiral: This is the big one. US debt now stands at $37.6 trillion, up 65% in just five years. With no plan to return to fiscal equilibrium, government debt is expected to keep rising.Crypto Demand (Yes, really): A new whale has entered the chat. Stablecoins backed by physical gold are driving demand, with reports estimating Tether has already hoarded over 120 tons of gold to back its token.Fed Independence Risks: Markets are jittery about the Fed. If Trump appoints a dovish Chair, it could erode confidence in US institutions and intensify selling pressure on the dollar—a classic setup for gold.Trade Wars 2.0: With USMCA up for renewal next year and China negotiations continuing, elevated trade uncertainty is keeping the safe-haven bid alive.Weaker Dollar: Scotiabank remains bearish on the USD overall, viewing further declines as a direct boost for metals."But isn't it overextended?"It feels like it, but historically? Maybe not.6) Scotiabank notes that while the recent run is amazing, it's not unprecedented. They point to the late 1970s, where gold prices rose more than 6-fold and silver rose 9-fold. By that metric, this bull market might just be getting started.From a valuation perspective, gold equities are actually trading cheaper than previous peaks. The sector is currently at ~7x EV/Fwd EBITDA, compared to valuations of over 10x observed back in 2010/2011.The Play:Scotiabank notes that many investors are actually still Underweight because they feel uncomfortable chasing a 60% rally. If you're looking for equity exposure, their top picks (all rated Sector Outperform) are Kinross Gold (KGC), OceanaGold (OGC), and DPM Metals (DPM) This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUD/USD currency pair faced immediate selling pressure during early Asian-Pacific trading today, drifting lower to test the resolve of the bulls. This decline brought price action directly into a critical technical convergence point: the rising 200-hour Moving Average (MA), currently located at 0.66366.For technical traders, this moving average serves as a vital barometer for the short-term trend. The good news for buyers is that the level held firm. The price successfully rebounded off this dynamic support line, pushing back above the interim 100-hour MA at 0.66519. However, the recovery has been far from smooth. Despite multiple attempts to extend gains, the pair has repeatedly stalled, failing to penetrate a distinct "swing area" established over the last three trading days near 0.66588.The Current Landscape: A Reluctance to Push HigherDespite the broader, longer-term bullish trend remaining intact—and the successful defense of the 200-hour MA—market sentiment appears hesitant. The inability to break through immediate overhead resistance suggests that buyer exhaustion may be setting in, or at least that traders are waiting for a stronger catalyst before committing to new highs.We are currently witnessing a classic technical tug-of-war. The market is squeezed between rising support and a stubborn ceiling, signaling that a volatility breakout could be imminent.The Bullish Scenario: What Buyers Need to ProveFor the bulls to regain full control, holding the 200-hour MA is necessary but not sufficient. They are currently trapped in a consolidation zone and need to clear specific hurdles to reignite the uptrend:The Immediate Hurdle: The first step is a decisive break and close above the 0.66588 swing area. This has acted as a "lid" on price action for days.The Next Target: Clearing that ceiling would shift focus to last week’s high at 0.66848.The Ultimate Goal: If momentum carries the pair through last week's high, it opens the door for a run toward the major September high at 0.67063.The Bearish Scenario: What Sellers Are WatchingSellers are currently banking on the 0.66588 level holding firm. As long as the price stays below this swing area, the bears remain in the game.The Strategy: Sellers are hoping the repeated failures at resistance will drain bullish momentum.The Trigger: The key victory for the bears would be a break below the rising 200-hour MA (0.66366) with conviction. Such a move would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and likely trigger a deeper correction.Watch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving this move in real-time. I outline exactly where the risk lies, how to interpret these moving average bounces, and map out the next targets that matter most for the AUD/USD currency pair.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Supported rate cuts among shifting balance of risksSees future inflation risks as lower than they wereThe market is pricing in a 22% chance of a cut next month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin is down nearly 2% today in the first dip below $87K since December 2. Bitcoin has been a good proxy for risk assets this year but lately has underperformed that metric. If it re-converges, then it points to downside risks for the Nasdaq.There is also an argument that they should disconnect anyway, as bitcoin is being left behind in all the enthusiasm for AI. In terms of catalysts, bitcoin got a big lift at this time last year from Trump's election and deregulation around it but hasn't been able to capitalize on that. On December 15 of last year, bitcoin was trading just above $100K.The risk is that bitcoin is increasingly viewed as 'yesterday's trade' and a technology that isn't really capable of disruption, or not nearly at the scale of AI. That could lead to a persistent slide in enthusiasm and a steady erosion in prices, particularly if we see falling risk appetite. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The broader U.S. stock market is moving lower, with the NASDAQ leading the downside as selling pressure builds across growth and technology shares. The recent pullback follows failed attempts to sustain record highs and reflects a market that is becoming more technically vulnerable in the short term.NASDAQ technical outlook: sellers regain controlThe NASDAQ index has fallen below both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, located at 23,312 and 23,176, respectively. Staying below these key moving averages keeps sellers firmly in control and shifts the near-term bias to the downside. The next important technical target comes at the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the August low, near 22,698.34. A move toward that level would confirm a deeper corrective phase is developing.S&P 500 outlook: support levels now under pressureThe S&P 500 has fared better than the NASDAQ, but its technical picture has also weakened. The index has broken below its rising 100-hour moving average at 6,821.02, a level that previously helped keep buyers engaged. With that support now giving way, attention turns to the 200-hour moving average at 6,780.14. A break below that level would increase the bearish bias and expose the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the August low at 6,650.01.That retracement level is notable. In November, the S&P broke below the same level on its way to a low near 6,522, before staging a strong recovery. More recently, the index closed at a record high of 6,901 last Thursday, but failed to extend toward the October intraday high at 6,920.04. The reversal lower on Friday and continued weakness today reinforce near-term caution.Broadcom in focus as NASDAQ weakness acceleratesIn the video above, I also examine Broadcom, which has become a poster child for the recent NASDAQ-led decline. Despite reporting better-than-expected earnings — EPS of $1.95 versus $1.86 expected, revenue of $18.02 billion versus $17.47 billion expected, and stronger-than-expected Q4 guidance — the stock failed to hold its gains. The reaction highlights that Broadcom was priced for perfection, with traders instead focusing on a modest decline in margins.Since peaking, Broadcom shares have fallen roughly 17% from the highs and are now testing a key trendline near $344. A sustained break below that level would have traders targeting the $330 area, which corresponds to the November 14 low.Bottom lineAcross both indices and individual stocks, the technical message is becoming clearer. Failed breakouts, broken moving averages, and fading momentum are shifting control back toward sellers. Until key resistance levels are reclaimed, rallies are likely to be met with caution, with downside retracement levels remaining firmly in focus.Watch the Video Analysis: In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving the move, outline where the risk is, and map out the next targets that matter most for Nasdaq, S&P and BroadcomBe aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Policy is well positioned for what lies aheadSees tariffs as a one-off price adjustment, not spilling into broader inflationSees inflation at 2.5% in 2026 and 2% in 2027Projects jobless rate will come down over the next few yearsExpecst 2026 GDP to hit 2.25%, well above 2025 rateLabor market risks have risen as risks to inflation have easedFed policy has moved towards neutral from modestly restrictiveThere isn't any kind of strong signal here but note that the market is seeing a nearly 25% chance of a January rate cut, with two cuts full priced in next year and a 33% chance of a third.More:Uncertainty over tariffs has fallen quite a bitFed baseline forecast is for 'a pretty good outcome'Gradual cooling in job market points to modestly restrictive mon polInflation is still too high This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The candidacy of Kevin Hasset " has received some pushback by high-level people who have the ear of President Donald Trump," according to CNBC citing sources familiar.The concern is that he's too close to the President.Those people better be careful what they wish for because Kevin Warsh comes with his own set of concerns. My guess is that people who are pushing for Waller are behind this, as he's the only realistic candidate with any credibility. However on Friday, Trump said:“I think the two Kevins are great"That indicates it's a two-horse race. Over at Kashi, Warsh has passed Hassett: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 38Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 priorProspective buyers 26 vs 26 priorThe market is getting a sense of where Fed rates will bottom and it looks like US 30-year yields will finish the year where they started. In short, there is no help coming for the US housing market. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is little changed in up and down trading to start the new trading week. BoC Decision: Last week the BOC held rate at 2.25% as resilience replace recession fearsLast week, in its final policy decision of 2025, the Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25%, signaling a pause in its easing cycle after cuts earlier in the fall. BOC Macklem noted that despite global uncertainties and the headwinds from U.S. tariffs, the Canadian economy has proven surprisingly resilient, with stronger-than-expected GDP growth and labor market improvements. With headline inflation stabilizing near the 2% target—though underlying price pressures remain slightly elevated—the Bank deemed the current policy stance appropriate as long as the economy evolves as projected. Emphasizing a data-dependent approach for future decisions, the BoC’s stance has led markets to anticipate a prolonged hold, with analysts even pricing in a modest risk of a rate hike in 2026 should inflation re-accelerate.Canada CPI (Nov 2025): Inflation Holds Steady at 2.2% as Core Cools, but Grocery Bills SpikeToday, Canada’s inflation report for November came in slightly softer than anticipated, with headline CPI holding steady at 2.2% year-over-year (below the 2.3% expectation). The data provided reassurance for the Bank of Canada as underlying pressures eased; both CPI median and trim slowed to 2.8%, while the monthly BoC core reading actually turned negative (-0.1%). While the "all-items" index was helped by lower costs for travel, accommodation, and slower rent growth, Canadian households are facing renewed shock at the grocery store. Food inflation accelerated to 4.7%—the highest rate since December 2023—driven by severe price spikes in coffee (+27.8%) and frozen beef (+17.7%). Overall, the benign monthly figures support the central bank's view that broad inflationary pressures remain contained.USDCAD remains technically biased lower as sellers continue to control ralliesFrom a technical perspective, the bias in USDCAD continues to favor the downside. The pair peaked near 1.4139 in early November and attempted to revisit that high on November 21, but momentum stalled short at 1.4130. That failure marked an important turning point, as the price has since worked progressively lower, eventually reaching a new cycle low at 1.3747 today. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows underscores that sellers remain firmly in control of the broader short-term trend.Throughout this decline, the market has repeatedly shown where sellers are willing to defend risk. Each corrective bounce has run into selling pressure near the falling 100-hour moving average, a level that has become increasingly important as the trend has matured. Since November 26, the 100-hour MA has been tested on four separate occasions, and each test has failed, with price rotating back to the downside shortly afterward. Those repeated rejections not only reinforce the bearish bias, but also elevate the moving average into a clear risk-defining level for both buyers and sellers.The most recent up-and-down price action from last week fits neatly within this technical framework. Buyers were able to generate a modest bounce, but momentum quickly faded once the 100-hour MA came into view, allowing sellers to reassert control and drive the pair to fresh lows. As long as the price remains below that declining moving average, rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities rather than trend reversals. In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends), walks through the key technical levels and scenarios shaping USDCAD after last week’s corrective move and renewed downside follow-through. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe stock market today illustrates a vibrant story with the semiconductor sector taking center stage. Leading the charge, Nvidia (NVDA) shines with an impressive 1.22% gain. Fellow semiconductor giant Micron Technology (MU) also experiences substantial upward momentum, boasting a 3.22% rise. This surge reflects a renewed investor confidence in semiconductor stocks, propelled by supply chain improvements and robust demand forecasts.? Technology SectorWhile semiconductors lead, the broader technology sector shows mixed signals. Microsoft (MSFT) gains slightly at 0.15%, emblematic of stable performance in software-infrastructure, whereas Oracle (ORCL) drops by 1.80%, indicating some volatility.? Consumer ElectronicsThe consumer electronics sector stays buoyant with Apple (AAPL) advancing 0.45%. This suggests steady consumer confidence in tech gadgets despite broader market fluctuations.? Auto ManufacturingAuto manufacturing shows robust growth, with Tesla (TSLA) spearheading the charge at 3.23%. The electric vehicle segment continues to dominate, driven by positive earnings reports and strong delivery expectations.? Software ApplicationConversely, the software application sector demonstrates weaknesses, exemplified by Salesforce (CRM) dipping 0.12% and Uber (UBER) declining 2.63%. These mixed results highlight sector-specific challenges and competitive pressures.Market Mood and TrendsOverall market sentiment today leans optimistic, particularly in tech and auto sectors, powered by semiconductor strength and positive vehicle sales forecasts. However, volatility persists within tech sub-segments, reflecting diverging investor outlooks.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors might consider increasing their exposure to semiconductor stocks like NVDA and MU to capitalize on their upward momentum. Meanwhile, cautious navigation in software applications is advised due to mixed performance indicators. Broadening exposure to auto manufacturing, especially in electric vehicles, can offer promising returns given Tesla's robust growth trajectory. As market dynamics continue to evolve, diversification remains key to mitigating risks and seizing opportunities. Visit InvestingLive.com for real-time updates and in-depth analyses. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 is up 0.3% shortly after the open and there is some good news is in the seasonals.As Ryan Detrick at Carson highlights, the second half of December is when Santa has come, with the average of the past 75 years a 1.4% gain. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Does not think higher goods inflation is mostly from tariffs, but acknowledges that he does not have a full explanation for itGoods inflation could be settling in at a higher level than was normal before the pandemic, but that will be offset by housing disinflationEx housing and non-market based items, core PCE inflation may be below 2.3%, "within noise" of the Fed's 2% targetGeez, when you need to strip out all kinds of things and cherry-pick only to get to 2.3% and you don't have an explanation for goods inflation, maybe dissenting for 50 bps isn't the best course of action. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is lower to start the new trading week - a week that has a number of different central bank decisions as well as key catch up economic data from the US including retail sales, CPI, and US employment. In the video above, I will take a look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - and develop the roadmap for you as a trader given all the data and events. What is the bias, the risks and the targets for each. Be aware. Be prepared. What are the key events and releases for the trading week. Monday, December 15US Empire State Manufacturing Index: A leading indicator for the US manufacturing sector (NY region).US NAHB Housing Market Index: Sentiment data from home builders, offering a pulse on the housing market ahead of Tuesday's hard data.Tuesday, December 16US Non-Farm Payrolls (November - Delayed): High Impact.Due to calendar anomalies, the BLS scheduled the release of the November jobs report for this week rather than the typical first Friday. Markets will be watching wage growth and the unemployment rate closely.US Housing Starts & Building Permits: Key data on residential construction activity.Flash PMIs (Manufacturing & Services): Preliminary readings for the US economy for December.Wednesday, December 17UK CPI Inflation (November): Critical for BoE.This release comes just 24 hours before the Bank of England's rate decision. A softer-than-expected print would all but seal the deal for a rate cut.US Retail Sales (November): A primary gauge of consumer spending strength heading into the holiday season.Thursday, December 18 (The "Big Day")Bank of England Rate Decision (12:00 PM GMT / 7:00 AM ET):Forecast: 25 bps Cut (to 3.75%).Focus: Split vote count and Governor Bailey's guidance on future easing.ECB Rate Decision (1:15 PM GMT / 8:15 AM ET):Forecast: Hold (at 2.00%).Focus: President Lagarde's press conference (8:45 AM ET) regarding the 2026 inflation outlook.US CPI Inflation (November): High Impact.Released at 8:30 AM ET, directly conflicting with the central bank news flow. This will likely drive significant volatility in the US Dollar and Treasury yields.US Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly health check on the labor market.Friday, December 19Bank of Japan Rate Decision: High Impact.Timing: Late Thursday night (ET) / Early Friday morning (Tokyo).Forecast: Markets are split with a tilt to a hike. The BoJ is inching toward normalization, and any hawkish surprise here could roil global bond markets.US PCE Price Index: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Coming one day after CPI, it will confirm the inflation trend for policymakers.Review of the Central Banks Last week the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with Fed Chair Powell saying that the Fed was "well-positioned" to wait and see. Below is a summary of some comments from Fed officials since the decision with 2 of the dissenters who voted for no change weighing in (Goolbee and Schmid).. SF Pres Mary Daly also supported her decision for a 25 basis point cut. Fed officials comment log (since most recent FOMC decision)Bank of England (BoE)Forecast: Rate Cut (25 bps)Current Rate: 4.00%Expected Rate: 3.75%Probability: Markets are pricing in an ~85-90% chance of a cut.The Context: The BOE is under pressure to act. Recent data showed the UK economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in October, raising fears of stagnation. With inflation behaving better than feared, the focus has shifted from fighting price rises to preventing a recession.BOE Governor Andrew Bailey: Governor Bailey is viewed as the pivotal "swing voter" on a divided committee. While he often keeps his cards close to his chest, his recent tone has shifted toward the "dovish" camp (those favoring lower rates).Key Sentiment: Bailey has hinted that he sympathizes with the view that inflation pressures are fading faster than expected. He recently noted the bank faces "difficult trade-offs" but the unexpected contraction in GDP likely tips his hand toward immediate support for the economy.What to watch: If the vote is a split decision (e.g., 5-4), it will signal deep internal disagreement about the UK's long-term inflation risks.European Central Bank (ECB)Forecast: HoldCurrent Policy Rate: 2.00%Expected Rate: 2.00% (No change)Probability: Consensus is for a pause.The Context: The ECB was quicker out of the gate, having already cut rates earlier in the year (bringing the deposit rate down to 2.00% by June 2025). Now, they are in a "wait-and-see" mode. Inflation is hovering near the 2% target, but policymakers want to ensure it doesn't flare up again before lowering the guard further.Voice from the Top: President Christine Lagarde President Lagarde remains steadfast in her "data-dependent" mantra, refusing to commit to a pre-set pathKey Sentiment: Lagarde has emphasized that the ECB is "determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at our 2% target." Her recent comments suggest that while the direction of travel is clear (lower rates eventually), the bank is not on autopilot.Quote to Note: She has reiterated that the bank will follow a "meeting-by-meeting approach," signaling that this week's pause is not a permanent stop, but a strategic check-point.Bank of Japan (BOJ)Forecast: HoldCurrent Deposit Rate: 0.50%Expected Rate:0.75% (+0.25%)The Context: The Bank of Japan meets this week with markets focused on whether policymakers are ready to take another step toward policy normalization. Expectations lean toward the BOJ maintaining its current policy stance for now, while keeping the door open to further tightening if inflation and wage momentum remain intact. Yen sensitivity remains high, particularly around any guidance on timing rather than the decision itself.Ueda comments (ahead of the meeting)Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation is moving steadily toward the 2% target, reinforcing the case for eventual policy normalization.He emphasized that wage growth and domestic demand are key conditions for sustained inflation.Ueda also noted that the BOJ is not targeting interest rates directly, but would respond if market moves become excessive or disconnected from fundamentals.Bottom line: The BOJ is likely to signal patience, not urgency — but Ueda’s tone suggests the normalization bias remains intact, keeping the yen highly sensitive to any shift in language. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Empire manufacturing index for December came in at -3.9 versus 10.0 estimate. The prior month was 18.7.Key Components of the Empire manufacturing index New orders 0.0 versus 15.9 last month.Shipments -5.7 versus 16.8 last month.Employment 7.3 versus 6.6 last month. Average employee workweek 3.5 versus 7.7 last monthPrices paid 37.6 versus 49.0 last month.Prices received 19.8 versus 24.0 last month.Unfilled orders -14.9 versus -5.8 last monthDelivery times -5.9 versus 7.7 last monthInventories 4.0 versus 6.7 last monthSupply availability -6.9 versus -11.5 last monthThe December NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing report showed broad-based weakening across most components, with 8 of the 10 sub-indices lower and only 2 higher (excluding the headline index). New orders fell sharply to 0.0 from 15.9, while shipments dropped to -5.7 from 16.8, signaling a clear slowdown in demand and activity. Employment was one of the few bright spots, edging higher to 7.3 from 6.6, although the average workweek declined to 3.5 from 7.7, suggesting limited follow-through in labor demand.Price pressures eased meaningfully, with prices paid falling to 37.6 from 49.0 and prices received slipping to 19.8 from 24.0. Unfilled orders deteriorated further to -14.9 from -5.8, and delivery times swung lower to -5.9 from 7.7, pointing to faster deliveries but weaker demand. Inventories eased modestly to 4.0 from 6.7, while supply availability improved slightly, rising to -6.9 from -11.5. Overall, the December report highlights cooling activity and easing inflation pressures, with resilience limited mainly to employment and supply conditions.NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index: six-month outlook turns more optimistic despite mixed cost and labor signalsGeneral business conditions 35.7 versus 19.1 last monthNew orders 38.0 versus 23.3 last monthShipments 33.3 versus 23.3 last month.Number of employees 8.8 versus 11.9 last month.Average employee workweek 12.9 versus 5 point last monthPrices paid 55.4 versus 62.5 last monthPrices received 46.5 versus 41.3 last monthCapital expenditures 6.9 versus 11.5 last monthunfilled orders 12.9 versus 1.0 last monthThe six-month forward-looking components of the December Empire State Manufacturing survey showed a notable improvement in sentiment, with 6 of the 9 forward components higher and 3 lower compared with last month. Future general business conditions jumped to 35.7 from 19.1, signaling a sharp rise in optimism. New orders rose to 38.0 from 23.3 and shipments increased to 33.3 from 23.3, pointing to expectations for stronger demand and activity ahead. Labor expectations were mixed: the number of employees slipped to 8.8 from 11.9, while the average workweek rose to 12.9 from 5.0, suggesting firms expect to lean more on hours than hiring.Price pressures moderated on the input side, with prices paid falling to 55.4 from 62.5, but prices received increased to 46.5 from 41.3, implying firms expect better pricing power.Capital spending plans eased to 6.9 from 11.5, while unfilled orders surged to 12.9 from 1.0, reinforcing expectations of stronger future demand. Overall, the forward indicators point to improving growth optimism, even as firms remain cautious on hiring and investment and continue to navigate elevated—but easing—cost pressures. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +18.7 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 2.2%Inflation m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% priorBOC core 2.9% vs 2.9% priorBOC core m/m -0.1% vs +0.6% priorCore CPI +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% priorCPI median +2.8% vs +2.9% expected CPI trim +2.8% vs +2.9% expectedCPI common 2.8% vs 2.7% priorEx gasoline +2.6% vs +2.6% priorThis is generally good news for the Bank of Canada as the monthly numbers were benign. Lower prices for travel tours and traveller accommodation, in addition to slower growth for rent prices, put downward pressure on the all-items CPI, Statistics Canada said. Offsetting the slower growth in services on an annual basis were higher prices for goods, driven by price increases for groceries as well as a smaller decline for gasoline prices. For Canadians, the 4.7% y/y rise in grocery prices (up from +3.4%) will bite hard and is the highest y/y rise since Dec 2023. Fresh fruit was a strong component of the increase but the headline rises were in frozen been (+17.7%) and coffee (+27.8%). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold prices are exhibiting renewed bullish momentum, once again testing major resistance zones and approaching record highs. As price action intensifies, understanding the key technical levels defining this structure is essential for navigating potential breakouts or rejections.Watch my latest technical analysis breakdown below for a detailed look at the current price structure, the crucial support and resistance zones, and the scenarios traders should be watching right now.Gold Technical Analysis Video (Above) ExplainedKey takeaways for gold traders and investors who prefer to read rather than to watch :)Gold futures remain in a well-defined bullish channel on the four-hour timeframe.Repeated higher lows and shallow pullbacks suggest strong underlying demand.The 4387.8 to 4388 area marks a critical resistance zone from the December 12 high.A sustained break above this level could accelerate upside via short covering.Failure at resistance remains a secondary scenario and should be monitored.The technical structure behind gold’s bullish caseWhen analyzing gold, I often find that simple, minimalistic chart structures can be just as effective as indicator-heavy setups. In this case, the four-hour chart presents a clean ascending channel that has been respected consistently by price action.The lower boundary of this channel has been validated multiple times, with at least four clear touchpoints, confirming that buyers continue to step in on pullbacks. This is not random movement. It reflects a market that is trending higher in a controlled and orderly manner.A key pivot within this structure was the November 13, 2025 high near 4250, a round number that acted as resistance for an extended period. On November 28, price finally broke above that level, an event that often triggers hesitation among market participants as they reassess directional bias.Consolidation, liquidity, and trend continuation in gold pricesAfter reclaiming 4250, gold entered a consolidation phase around the prior high. This pause formed a bull flag structure, a common continuation pattern in trending markets. During this phase, both longs and shorts were active, with liquidity likely being absorbed as weaker positions were forced out.Following this consolidation, price pushed higher and reconnected with the upper boundary of the channel. While gold briefly pulled back from that area, the move lower was corrective rather than impulsive. Importantly, the pullback remained shallow, and buyers quickly regained control.This behavior is consistent with a market that remains in accumulation rather than distribution.Why the 4388 area matters now for gold futuresThe next major technical reference is the December 12 high at approximately 4387.8. From a structural perspective, this level represents the most obvious upside objective within the current channel.If bulls can sustain price above this resistance, it increases the likelihood of an accelerated move higher. One reason is positioning. Short sellers who entered near the upper boundary of the channel may be forced to cover if price breaks and holds above resistance, adding fuel to the move.A common continuation sequence would involve a break above 4388, followed by a brief retest, and then renewed upside momentum.Alternative scenario and risk awarenessWhile the broader structure favors the bulls, an alternative outcome should not be ignored. Selling pressure could re-emerge near the 4388 zone, potentially creating a temporary false breakout or short-term high before another pullback develops.At this stage, that scenario appears less likely based on the series of higher lows, controlled retracements, and repeated respect of channel support, but it remains part of responsible scenario planning.Remember, gold traders, this analysis is based on one timeframe and one technical lens, a four-hour channel without indicators. The focus is deliberately on price behavior, pullback strength, and trend validation, rather than predictions or guarantees.From a technical standpoint, gold continues to display bullish characteristics, and the market appears to be positioning for further upside as long as the channel structure remains intact.For additional technical perspectives, multi-timeframe analysis, and market context, visit investingLive.com.The Fundamental Backdrop Fueling the Technical Move for Gold These DaysThe current technical bullishness in Gold is heavily influenced by the broader macroeconomic landscape. Financial markets are currently fixated on upcoming top-tier US economic data, specifically Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—which are driving significant volatility across asset classes.While currency markets are reacting to expectations that the ECB will hold rates steady, and the Japanese Yen has strengthened significantly to drive USD/JPY down to the 155.00 level, precious metals are serving as a key barometer for market sentiment. Gold is aggressively approaching record highs specifically in anticipation of this critical US data, as traders position themselves for potential shifts in the US Dollar's strength and Federal Reserve policy expectations.The video above analyzes how this fundamental backdrop is translating onto the charts, identifying the specific levels where the bulls must prove their strength to sustain this upward trajectory.Always trade and/or invest in gold at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.