New Zealand Q4 2025 employment report. This is just the data post.I'll have more to come on this separately.Here we go, details, analysis:New Zealand jobs report shows firmer hiring but unemployment edges to a 10 year high This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Via oil price dot com:---Expectations I had seen centred on:Headline crude +0.5 mn barrelsDistillates -2.3 mn bblsGasoline +1.4 mn---The inventory data referenced here comes from a privately conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which polls oil storage facilities, refiners, and other industry participants on a voluntary basis. The API report is typically released late Tuesday US time and is widely viewed as a preliminary indicator of changes in US crude oil inventories ahead of the official government figures.By contrast, the more authoritative data is published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday morning US time. The EIA report is based on mandatory submissions and data collected by the Department of Energy and other government agencies, making it broader in scope and generally more reliable.While the API report focuses primarily on headline changes in crude oil storage levels and week-on-week variations, the EIA release provides a much more comprehensive snapshot of oil market conditions. In addition to total crude inventories, it includes detailed information on refinery inputs and outputs, utilisation rates, gasoline and distillate stocks, imports and exports, and storage levels across different grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy blends.As a result, the EIA report is considered the definitive reference point for oil traders and analysts, with greater market impact, particularly when it diverges from API estimates. Discrepancies between the two reports are common and can trigger short-term volatility in oil prices, as markets reassess supply-demand balances once the official data is released. For this reason, the API figures are best viewed as a directional guide rather than a substitute for the EIA’s official assessment of US oil inventories.There has been plenty of news to keep oil price volatility ticking over. This from Adam earlier:US military shot down Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier - reportThe market is acting like this was some kind of averted Pearl Harbor when it was probably a drone miles away. I wouldn't get too excited about this. The report says it was shot down by a fighter jet, so it likely wasn't even in range of the aircraft carrier, which was the Lincoln.Talks with Iran are still scheduled for Friday. Along those lines, Iran only wants the scope of the talks to remain on the nuclear file and does not want direct participation of regional countries. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US House votes to end government shutdownFed's Barkin: Inflation remains above target, expect more progressFed's Miran: I think we need to cut rates by about a percentage point this yearUS military shot down Iranian drone that approached an aircraft carrier - reportBoA: global equity 'risk-love' metric hits euphoria levelsMarkets:Gold up $271 to $4935WTI crude up $1.85 to $64.01US 10-year yields flat at 4.26%S&P 500 down 0.8%AUD leads, JPY lagsIt was another day of huge market moves and volatility. It started out once again in precious metals as gold and silver bounced back in a big way. Silver was up more than 10% at the highs before paring back gains in the latter half of US trading but still finishing up near 7% at $85/oz. Gold was more stable around $4920 but the $275 gain represents that largest one-day nominal gain ever.In North America, the bigger moves were in tech stocks and crypto. US futures had been higher but some heavy selling hit after the open in software names, megacap tech and Nvidia. What was interesting was that more than half of the constituents of the S&P 500 were higher on the day and that was really concentrated selling of the prior winners on AI worries.Bitcoin hit the lowest since Trump's re-election at $72,903 but managed to stage a late $3000 bounce to mitigate the damage. That rebound might portend a better attitude on risk as well. Along those same lines, Nvidia and OpenAI seem to be attempting to patch up the PR damage over the past few days as both companies walk back reports.In FX, the Australian dollar held onto its impressive gains after a rate hike and a hawkish announcement. The RBA is clearly seeing signs of acceleration and the market likes it with AUD touching as high as 0.7050 today and finishing near 0.7020.Despite all the turmoil, there was no bid in the yen today. A few years ago it was unthinkable that you'd have AUD/JPY as the best performing FX trade on a day with stocks down 1% but the market is looking for new places to invest, eyeing relative valuations and seeing central banks diverge. Today was a test of that theme and the market passed it.Over in energy markets, the angst about a US-Iran war is building once again after Monday's wipeout. Oil had been negative before the drone headlines and the market is treading it like it was Pearl Habor avoided. That's questionable with negotiations still planned for Friday but it's anyone's guess where this heads. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

New Zealand Q4 2025 employment report and China's private survey services PMI feature on the calendar today. New Zealand’s labour market is expected to show signs of stabilisation in the December quarter, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain steady at 5.3%. Recent higher-frequency indicators suggest a modest pickup in employment growth over recent months, broadly sufficient to keep pace with growth in the working-age population rather than deliver a material tightening in labour conditions.If realised, the Q4 outcome would likely mark the peak in the unemployment rate for the current cycle. However, any improvement is expected to be gradual rather than sharp. While hiring momentum appears to be improving at the margin, underlying labour market slack remains evident, limiting the scope for a rapid decline in unemployment over the coming quarters.This lingering slack is also expected to keep wage pressures contained. Firms continue to report a more balanced labour market, with easing skill shortages and reduced urgency to bid up wages compared with earlier in the cycle. As a result, wage growth is likely to remain moderate for some time, even as employment conditions slowly improve.Overall, the labour market backdrop remains consistent with a cautious economic recovery rather than a strong re-acceleration. For policymakers, the data should reinforce the view that inflation risks from wages are limited in the near term, supporting a patient approach as broader economic conditions continue to evolve. **China's official services (and manufacturing) PMI disappointed in January:China January PMI slips into contraction as weak demand clouds early-2026 growth outlookChina’s official manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction in January, underscoring persistent domestic demand weakness at the start of 2026.Services and construction activity also fell into contraction, marking the weakest non-manufacturing reading since late 2022.New orders and export orders both deteriorated, signalling fragile momentum beyond seasonal effects.Policymakers are accelerating targeted fiscal and monetary support, but confidence in a rapid demand rebound remains limited.Official optimism around high-tech and export resilience contrasts with softer consumption and property-sector stress.However, the private survey manufacturing PMI was not as bad:China private manufacturing PMI rises in January, but cost pressures intensifyChina’s private-sector manufacturing PMI edged higher in January, signalling a second straight month of modest expansion.Output and new orders improved, with overseas demand—particularly from Southeast Asia—providing support.Employment rose slightly and backlogs eased, pointing to marginal operational improvement.Cost pressures intensified, pushing factory-gate prices higher for the first time in over a year.The private PMI contrasts with weaker official PMI data, highlighting a still-fragile and uneven recovery.The PMI due today is expected to have slipped from December but to remain well in expansion territory. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It's never a dull moment in these markets.Bitcoin fell to the lowest since Trump was re-elected earlier today, touching $72,903. That was below the Liberation Day low and painted an ugly potential candle on the chart.But it may have been a trap. After the weak hands were shaken out, the buyers stepped in and have taken it all the way up to $76,250, more than $3000 above the lows. The bounce in ethereum has been even larger, rising to $2300 from a low of $2109.There has also been some buying the stock market with the S&P 500 coming off the lows but with nowhere near the strength of crypto. In all of markets, it's been one day after another of wild moves. Gold and silver continue to be extraordinarily volatile while we've seen some shocking moves this year in Japanese bonds, USD/JPY, Microsoft shares and more. That kind of volatility is symptomatic of something beneath the surface in the markets but it's hard to pin down what's happening. That said, it's almost never good. Bull markets are built on steady buying, not high volatility. Maybe it calms itself down after earning season and we got some good news today with the US government shutdown ending but I also worry that things are happening in the real economy that could be de-stabilizing. This week's ISM manufacturing number was very strong and the old economy stocks are surging today. Could we have to start thinking about a re-acceleration in the economy and cancelling the rate cuts that are pencilled in? How would the market respond?Moreover, if rates are cut anyway into a hot economy, that raises worrisome questions about inflation down the road. Mixed in with all that are worries about AI spending and what the models might produce next, and if that will be enough. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Non-farm payrolls and JOLTS were delayed this week but they will soon be rescheduled. The House ended the US government shutdown and surely the Senate will now follow. The vote was 217-214.I don't think this will lead to much relief in the market as the deal was flagged on the weekend. Trump on Friday also indicated that negotiations were happening and that no one wanted a shutdown.If you read in between the lines on that, it says voters were blaming the Republicans the last time around moreso than the Democrats; though the real loser in all this is always faith in Washington.A brief history of U.S. government shutdownsU.S. government shutdowns occur when Congress fails to pass appropriations bills (or a continuing resolution) to fund federal agencies, and the president does not sign temporary funding into law. During a shutdown, “non-essential” federal operations pause, hundreds of thousands of workers are furloughed, and others work without pay until funding resumes.Shutdowns are a relatively modern phenomenon. Before 1980, funding gaps happened but agencies often continued operating. That changed after an attorney general opinion clarified that agencies must cease non-essential work when funds lapse. Since then, shutdowns have become a recurring feature of U.S. politics, often reflecting deeper conflicts over budgets, deficits, healthcare, immigration, or presidential authority.Most shutdowns have been brief—lasting a day or two—but a few have been prolonged and economically disruptive. The 1995–96 shutdowns under President Clinton marked a turning point in their political visibility. The longest shutdown, in 2018–19, lasted 35 days amid a dispute over border wall funding, highlighting how shutdowns can be used as leverage in high-stakes negotiations.While shutdowns rarely change long-term fiscal outcomes, they impose real short-term costs on workers, government services, and public trust.US government shutdowns since 1980:Nov 20–23, 1981 — 2 daysSept 30–Oct 2, 1982 — 1 dayDec 17–21, 1982 — 3 daysNov 10–14, 1983 — 3 daysSept 30–Oct 3, 1984 — 2 daysOct 3–4, 1984 — 1 dayOct 16–18, 1986 — 1 dayDec 18–20, 1987 — 1 dayOct 5–9, 1990 — 3 daysNov 13–19, 1995 — 5 daysDec 16, 1995–Jan 6, 1996 — 21 daysOct 1–17, 2013 — 16 daysJan 20–23, 2018 — 3 daysFeb 9, 2018 — 1 dayDec 22, 2018–Jan 25, 2019 — 35 daysOct 1–Nov 12, 2025 — 43 days (longest shutdown on record)Current shutdown (4 days) This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's getting uglier by the moment in US stock markets.The S&P 500 is down 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite is down 2.2%. The big drags are software stocks and Some notable declines:Paypal -20%Shopify -11%Accenture -10%Qualcomm -5%Oracle -4.6%Nvidia -3.6%Microsoft -3%Amazon -3%Meta -2.6%Google -1.5%Tesla -1.2%What's odd about this move is that more than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 are higher. That's being led by energy, consumer non-cyclicals, basic materials and utilities. In short, it's the 'old economy' stocks I wrote about earlier.Even worse than stocks are crypto. Her's a look at the wreckage:BTC -6.8% to $73,055ETH -9.5%XRP -6.8%These declines leave bitcoin down 17% over the past week and Ethereum down 29%. The latter has just taken out the May 2025 low.Meanwhile bitcoin has given up all its gains since Trump's re-election.It's certainly a selective selloff with gold up 4.7% in its biggest one-day gain ever in nominal terms. Silver is also up 5% but has backed off after a more than 10% gain earlier. Oil is up more than $1 on Iran-US war worries.Once again, the US dollar is disconnected from the risk trade as it's broadly (though modestly) lower today.I think a few things are behind the selloff:The worries about an AI selloff or shakeout due to high valuations and massive capexOpenAI and Nvidia in some kind of war of words about investment and chip performanceSoftware getting slaughtered as AI kills the moatWorries about all the private equity money in software, perhaps spilling over to banksIt's not a pretty picture and I tend to think that OpenAI fight is the biggest part of it. The money is no longer flowing into anything tagged 'AI' as the valuations got insane. Elon Musk seems to have dumped xAI into SpaceX at an opportune time, allowing his investors to unload into a space company that's likely unique enough to hold it's premium valuation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin is being sucked lower in a broad risk-off trade that's also hammering the Nasdaq. Bitcoin is down 4.4% now to $74,969. On the breaks the big figure, it could quickly test the weekly low of $74,564. A fall below that would be the lowest since November 2024, just before the US election. The Trump win that night set off a frenzy of crypto hopes and, to be fair, Trump generally delivered on the deregulation agenda. However there were hopes (promises?) that he would create a crypto strategic reserve. That always sounded like a longshot given that it would need congressional approval but it didn't pan out in any case and it seems to be dead now. Instead, Trump used crypto for a series of con jobs, including his own coin and the much-derided Melania-coin. That sort of thing undermines the whole premise of crypto and it isn't a good look.For much of last year and before, crypto traded like leveraged beta on the Nasdaq and Nvidia in particular but at some point last year it lost that quality. Instead, it was flat when tech rallied and underperformed on the downside. We're seeing that today as the Nasdaq falls 1.8%.The other bull case for bitcoin was a US dollar debasement trade but that also hasn't worked. The dollar suffered a poor start to the year and gold/silver both went parabolic but none of that money seemed to flow into crypto. Worse yet, Tether's owners built a huge stockpile of gold. I take that as a sign of some crypto enthusiasts shifting their focus.For now, this isn't a great look for bitcoin or for the broader market as risk appetite evaporates. I tend to think the trigger is the squabbling between OpenAI and Nvidia about chip usefulness and investments. That highlights that the froth is coming off the AI trade and companies are focused more on profitability.Elon dumping xAI on SpaceX may also prove to be a turning point. I'm not sure how he can justify a +$200 billion valuation for the fourth-best AI company and the dregs of twitter but here we are. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices have jumped on this headline and stocks are at the lows of the day. The latter was already underway but the oil price jump was more noticeable.The market is acting like this was some kind of averted Pearl Harbor when it was probably a drone miles away. I wouldn't get too excited about this. The report says it was shot down by a fighter jet, so it likely wasn't even in range of the aircraft carrier, which was the Lincoln.Talks with Iran are still scheduled for Friday. Along those lines, Iran only wants the scope of the talks to remain on the nuclear file and does not want direct participation of regional countries.Axios reports: Iran has demanded changes to the venue and format for negotiations with the US this Friday, two sources with knowledge tell Axios. The Iranians want to move the talks from Istanbul to Oman & want to hold them in a bilateral format, only with the USWTI crude oil rose about 95 cents on the drone headline and crude is now up more than $1.40 on the day. Like I wrote last week: It's never wise to chase a geopolitical move. You saw what can happen on Monday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US equity markets have quickly turned lower after a positive open and it's largely being driven by tech. The Nasdaq is now down 1% and some laggards include:PYPL -17.7%INTU -1.8%MU -5.1%ADBE -4.9%NVDA -2.8%MSFT -2.2%ASML -3.6%Those big losers obscure some large gains on the other side of the economy. Yesterday, I highlighted a breakout in transports and that's continuing today. Miners are also back in the green after the rout on Friday/Monday.AAL +3.8%FCX +5.9%ULA +3.9%DOW +3.8%CLF +4.9%Today, the Fed's Barkin said US economic data for the last month-and-a-half has been encouraging on the demand side. We could be finally seeing a hand off from tech to the real economy. I don't think it will take much because things like housing, materials and old industrial stocks have been beaten up so badly over the past two years. There's a big relative valuation shift there and they're classic cyclical stocks.Both the Fed and the government have been trying to manufacture a resurrection of the old economy and this week's ISM manufacturing report rose to 52.6 from 48.5. It's just one number but the S&P Global survey was a bit better and so was the Chicago PMI. Plus, look at the new orders component:I would be wary that's an aberration but it's worth clawing through the earnings transcripts of these old economy stocks to see what they're saying about a turn in demand. Right now there is an impressive amount of resilience on a day when broad stock markets are down. To me that screams that someone is rotating. Last week, I highlighted how David Tepper seemed to be making a bet on this kind of cyclical rotation and his Whirlpool stock has continued to bounce from the earnings rout and is up another 6% today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

? Tech sector dips while semiconductors and Amazon soar: A market snapshotSector OverviewToday, the technology sector is facing a challenging landscape, marked by declines in major stocks like Oracle (ORCL) and Microsoft (MSFT), each dropping by 1.24% and 1.14% respectively. However, the semiconductor industry offers a more optimistic picture with Broadcom (AVGO) emerging as a significant winner, up by 1.84%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbing 2.15%. This highlights a notable shift within the tech space.In the consumer cyclical sector, Amazon (AMZN) posted a solid gain of 1.20%, indicating robust investor confidence in internet retail. Tesla (TSLA) also edged up slightly by 0.31%.Market Mood and TrendsThe overall market mood is mixed, with the communication services sector showing strength, particularly with Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOG) increasing by 1.18%. Investors seem to be cautiously optimistic, absorbing recent market and economic updates with a balanced outlook. Financials reveal a divergent pattern, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) enjoying a rise of 0.96% while other key players like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) see a slight dip of 0.87%.Despite the underperformance in the broader tech sector, the steady performance of semiconductors might suggest expected growth or specific positive news within that niche, now turning investors' eyes to this potential hotspot.Strategic RecommendationsGiven these dynamics, investors may want to watch the semiconductor space for opportunities and monitor how resilience in consumer cyclicals and communication services unfolds. With recent tech dips, evaluating entry points for companies like Microsoft and Oracle might offer strategic opportunities once volatility stabilizes.For those looking to balance their portfolios, incorporating a mix of tech and consumer cyclical stocks like Amazon or semiconductors such as Broadcom might provide a hedge against uncertainty, given their current performance. Stay updated with InvestingLive.com for real-time market data and strategic insights to navigate this complex landscape. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

German 30-year bund yields just rose to the highest since 2011, at 3.55% in something of a warning sign but let's keep things in perspective: US 30-year rates are nearly 5%.It's not a borrowing crisis but it is working against ECB rates, which aren't likely to be lowered further after a series of cuts last year. It does provide some backing for the euro as these rates are far above the 2015-2023 regime.Looking at the chart, it's still amazing to me that Germany was able to borrow of 30-years at sub-zero rates. That's the kind of thing that makes no sense, even in hindsight. Of course, anyone who bought those bonds is now sitting on a mountain of unrealized losses.On the fiscal side, Germany remains one of the most-disciplined countries in the world but there's a looming sense it won't stay that way. The purse strings were loosened after the election last year and military spending is also rising rapidly. The country's automotive sector faces a reckoning from Chinese competition and that's likely to drive deficits ever higher.Again, this is a game that Germany can play for awhile because both its debt and deficit levels are low after many years of austerity and the general popularity of fiscal prudence in Germany politics. The euro is higher so far this year but down on the week on broad USD strength. Last week, the euro briefly rose above 1.20 but has backed off to 1.1784. It's flat today and the next drivers will be what happens with economic growth. Germany's economy ministry recently revised down its 2026 GDP estimate to 1.0% from 1.3%. There are risks on both sides of that but in the short term, eyes are on Russia-Ukraine. There is plenty of skepticism about more reports that we're near an end to the war but that outcome would be an unambiguous positive for the euro. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

According to a note from Bank of America, their proprietary Global Equity Risk-Love indicator just surged to the 95th percentile last week.It's an indicator that indicator tracks a basket of sentiment drivers including positioning, put-call ratios, investor surveys, price technicals, volatility, spreads, and correlation measures.Right now, the reading is screaming "Euphoria."As you can see in the chart above , we are now well above the red dotted line that typically denotes a contrarian bearish signal.BofA writes:"Buoyancy is now evident across nearly every major category - volatility, correlations, spreads, cash allocations, investor surveys, put-call ratios, and technicals."When sentiment gets this stretched, markets often need to take a breather. BoA notes that this elevated reading signals markets may be heading into a period of consolidation or a mild correction as traders digest this euphoric positioning. However, the strategists at BoA offer a reality check. While sentiment is frothy, the actual mechanics of the market remain strong. They do not see this as the end of the bull run.Why? Because aside from the "vibe" (sentiment), the hard data is still supportive:Earnings momentum is holding up.We are in an ongoing growth upcyclePolicy settings remain accommodativeA separate note shows that investors are holding one of the lowest proportions of cash in modern history. The recent BofA global fund manager survey showed that "cash levels of 3.7% or lower has occurred 20 times since 2002, & on every occasion stocks fell and Treasuries outperformed in the following 1-3 months:" These are some big red flags but overall I tend to agree with Bank of America that stocks can continue to rise. When you look at something like the Fear and Greed Index, it's not elevatedAnother favorite of mine is the AAII investor sentiment survey and it shows that 44.4% of investors are bullish, which is off the high of 49.5% from a few weeks ago. That's still above the historical average of 37.5% but it's not at 'euphoric' levels by any stretch.S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Richmond Fed President Barkin is usually a good barometer on where the core of the FOMC stands.Rate cuts so far have helped insure health of job market while Fed completes "last mile" of returning inflation to target.Economy remains "remarkably resilient."Given growth, low unemployment rate, hard to imagine either businesses or consumers moving to the sidelines.Rise in productivity suggests firms can bear higher input costs without pressure to raise prices.Firms say demand is fine and are not doing layoffs "at scale.""Significant stimulus" arriving in the form of deregulation, tax and withholding changes.Inflation remains above target, expect more progress.Both job growth and spending have been narrowly focused in the economy.Sustained inflation miss since 2021 should be taken seriously, can influence inflation in the future.Slow growth in labor supply, given declining immigration and low fertility rates, is a top long-term concern.The 'significant stimulus' arriving line is the most-notable for me, as it argues for keeping rates where they are as that's digested. We saw a big jump in the ISM manufacturing survey yesterday and it was combined with transports and real-economy stocks surging. Could there be a turn in that part of the economy already?Barkin will speak in a Q&A following the delivery of these comments so that should give us a better idea of where he sees rates heading. At the moment, the Fed funds futures curve is pricing in 48 bps of easing this year, which has been steady for the past week or so through the Warsh decision.Comments in the Q&A:US economic data for the last month-and-a-half has been encouraging on the demand sideStill an open question as when inflation will fall to 2%Policy rate is now at the higher end of neutralHears overwhelmingly from companies that demand is 'fine' not 'frothy'Business perceptions about pricing power have fallenSays he doesn't know Warsh well but he's charismatic and seems capableHe is very friendly to the notion about inflation coming down but looking to see itHopeful that current US gov't shutdown will only cause a few days delay in data This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Warsh is a fantastic choice to lead the FedFed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year Underlying inflation is not a problemMarket yields haven't gone up by that muchBetter growth in the future doesn't need higher interest ratesNot reading a lot into metal market volatilityIn the long run, would like a smaller Fed balance sheetTo get smaller balance sheet we need more regulation changesFed monetary policy is too tightFed's Miran argues that the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is "too tight" for the economic reality on the ground. Despite the cautious stance maintained by most colleagues, Miran believes the Fed needs to be bold this year. Miran proposes a reduction in interest rates by approximately 100 basis points (one percentage point) by year-end.Dismissing concerns over persistent price pressures, Miran asserts that "underlying inflation is not a problem," suggesting that the path to the 2% target is clearer than markets may realize. One of the more striking aspects of the commentary is the rejection of the idea that robust economic growth necessitates higher borrowing costs. Miran contends that better future growth does not require high interest rates to keep the economy from "overheating." Furthermore, Miran downplays recent volatility in the metal markets, suggesting these fluctuations are noise rather than a signal of structural shifts or impending inflationary spikes.Beyond immediate rate decisions, Miran is looking toward the long-term structural footprint of the central bank as he would like a smaller Fed balance sheet. However, Miran notes that "shrinking the pile" isn't as simple as just selling assets. To successfully reduce the balance sheet without triggering liquidity crunches, Miran argues that significant regulatory changes are required. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

USDJPY looks poised to revisit the intervention level as US data strengthensOil prices plunge as US-Iran risks ease; market remains supported amid demand outlookThe sharp pullback in precious metal takes a breather for the time beingThe Indian Rupee surges against the Dollar as Trump announces trade deal and lower tariffsThe Australian Dollar jumped across the board after the RBA out-hawked market expectationsFrance January preliminary CPI +0.3% vs +0.6% y/y expectedWhat are the main events for today?Reminder: US jobs report this week delayed again amid government shutdownFX option expiries for 3 February 10am New York cutRBA governor Bullock says the Australian economy is in a good positionRBA governor Bullock says that inflation pulse is too strongAustralian dollar gets a lift as the RBA delivers on a hawkish rate hike todayThe main event of the session was the French CPI report. The data was much softer than expected as inflation continues to remain subdued in France. That might create some headache for the ECB as Germany's inflation remains above target and contributes the most to Eurozone CPI. Other than that, it's been mostly just about continuations of prior moves. The Australian Dollar extended the gains earlier in the session following the hawkish RBA's rate hike but gave them back as the US Dollar strengthened across the board. Precious metals continue to recoup losses after the historical plunge on Friday.The mood in equity markets remains upbeat as the main US indices continue to charge higher. I'd be careful though because they've been diverging with credit spreads and it's generally a bad sign for the bulls. It might be some underlying fear of a hawkish repricing as we await more top tier US data in the next days and weeks.The bond market might be also sending some early signals as we've been seeing a bear flattening on the hot US data recently. A hawkish repricing should tighten financial conditions in the short-term and weigh on risk assets.In the American session, we don't have anything on the agenda as the partial US government shutdown delayed the US Job Openings report that was scheduled for today (the US NFP report on Friday was also delayed). We have a couple of Fed speakers on the calendar but they are unlikely to deviate from their recent comments as they await more data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the strong selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons to appreciate, but there wasn’t a reason for a strong selloff either. The US data continues to improve, especially on the labour market side as the US Jobless Claims suggest a re-acceleration in activity. Yesterday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the new orders index jumping to the best levels since 2022. February might be the month when the US Dollar comes back with a vengeance if we keep getting strong data. The NFP report is certainly the main highlight although it got delayed due to the partial shutdown. Nonetheless, we will get many other top tier data that could give the greenback a boost like the US ADP and the ISM Services PMI. The market is pricing 48 bps of easing by year-end and those bets will be pared back in case the data strengthens. Conversely, if the data comes out softer than expected, then we could see the US Dollar coming back under pressure, although the momentum shouldn’t be as strong as we’ve seen in January.JPY:On the JPY side, nothing has changed. The BoJ held interest rates steady as expected at the last policy meeting and upgraded slightly growth and inflation forecasts due to the expansionary fiscal policies. Governor Ueda didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance as he just repeated that they will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realised. He also added that April price behaviour will be a factor to mull over a rate hike. This suggests that April is when they expect to deliver another rate hike if the data supports such a move. The Japanese Yen rallied just on the back of the “rate check” talks and intervention risk. This is now in the rear-view mirror and traders are piling back into shorts as the US Dollar strengthens on better data. If this continues, we should see the USD/JPY rate back around 159.00 in a few weeks.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY broke above the 154.50 resistance zone and extended the gains as the buyers piled in with more conviction to target the 159.00 handle. If we get a retest of the resistance now turned support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the support to target the major trendline.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we finally closed last week’s gap and the price is breaking above it. This is where we can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the gap zone to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the zone to position for a drop back into the support.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the recent price action might have formed a rising wedge. This might signal a loss of momentum and an imminent correction. The buyers will likely lean on the bottom trendline to keep pushing into new highs, but if we get a break lower, the sellers will likely regain control and take us back to the 154.50 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. On Sunday, we have the Japanese lower house election where the LDP party is expected to win. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices plunged yesterday at the open following a couple of positive developments over the weekend. In fact, a top Iranian security official said that a structure for negotiations with the US was being set up and Trump confirmed later that Iran was seriously talking to US. Moreover, an Iranian official stated that media reports of plans for revolutionary guards to hold military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were wrong. These events eased the geopolitical risk premium and weighed on oil prices. Yesterday, it was announced that US and Iran will hold talks in Istanbul on Friday. Meanwhile, OPEC+ held output steady as expected over the weekend which is a good thing for oil prices in the bigger picture as an improvement in demand without more output hikes should support the market. As mentioned last week, it’s not just the US-Iran tensions supporting the oil market, but there’s also the demand part. Yesterday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin and the new orders index jumped to the best levels since 2022. Unless we get more output hikes from OPEC+ or the market starts to bet on Fed’s rate hikes, oil prices will likely remain supported.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil eventually reached the 66.00 handle and pulled back as the sellers stepped in to target new lows. The break below the 62.37 level saw more sellers piling in to extend the drop into the 58.80 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will either step in around the 58.80 support or wait for a break above the 62.37 level again to position for a rally into new highs.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 58.80 support next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent price action with the consolidation between the 62.37 level and the trendline. The buyers will look for a break above the 62.37 level to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break below the trendline to extend the drop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The volatile moves since the latter stages of last week is cooling but it doesn't mean we're out of the woods just yet. For now at least, gold and silver is at least seeing the sharp pullback take a bit of a breather. However, it doesn't mean that all is good again to resume the same kind of parabolic surge higher in the past two months.So far on the session, we're once again seeing precious metals catch some bids in European morning trade. It was the same yesterday with a modest bounce after some heavy selling Asia. But of course, that was then met with some added selling in US trading but at least gold and silver did not succumb back to fall near the lows seen in the early stages.Following the volatile and sharp moves in the past few sessions, where do we go from here?As mentioned yesterday, the technical side of things will offer the best clues on how sentiment is playing out. In that lieu, the Fib retracement levels are key at this stage.In the case of gold, dip buyers are slowly breaking the momentum with a push back above the 38.2 Fib retracement level of $4,860. That's providing some comfort with eyes on the $5,000 mark in halving the sharp drop since last week.A firm break back above the figure level will be a big psychological boost in rehabilitating the overall mood, even more so if it can get back above the key hourly moving averages. But for now, it's about taking one step at a time. The 50.0 Fib retracement level near the $5,000 mark will be a big, big challenge. So, watch out for that in terms of solidifying any sentiment on the rebound here.As for silver, the bounce has been less convincing. Price action has only taken out the 23.6 Fib retracement level and it's nowhere near to halving the sharp drop since last week. As such, there is still more work to do to really justify a material rebound or any major change in sentiment just yet. That even if price is up roughly 9% today.Overall, I wouldn't say it's a dead cat bounce for precious metals. The fact of the matter is that the fundamental factors driving the price movements since last year are still acting as key tailwinds for both gold and silver. So from a structural perspective, it makes sense for both precious metals to trend higher over time.The sharp pullback here is one that is largely due to one-sided positioning and the fact that it has gone too far, too fast. Think of it as a case of Icarus flying too close to the sun. While his wings have melted, it doesn't mean that there's no room for recovery.At this point, I would say that we're overdue a more consolidative phase for gold and silver. However, it will probably be one with a much larger range than we'd be typically accustomed to.But so long as we continue to get triggers like this in reminding markets of the sell America trade, that will eventually keep chipping away at the consolidative resistance and allow for precious metals to break free again in due time. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the strong selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons to appreciate, but there wasn’t a reason for a strong selloff either. The US data continues to improve, especially on the labour market side as the US Jobless Claims suggest a re-acceleration in activity. Yesterday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the new orders index jumping to the best levels since 2022. February might be the month when the US Dollar comes back with a vengeance if we keep getting strong data. The NFP report is certainly the main highlight although it got delayed due to the partial shutdown. Nonetheless, we will get many other top tier data that could give the greenback a boost like the US ADP and the ISM Services PMI. The market is pricing 48 bps of easing by year-end and those bets will be pared back in case the data strengthens. Conversely, if the data comes out softer than expected, then we could see the US Dollar coming back under pressure, although the momentum shouldn’t be as strong as we’ve seen in January.INR:The Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar, but the latest positive development on the tariffs front gave the INR a strong boost. In fact, US President Trump announced yesterday on Truth Social that they reached a deal with India and the US will lower the tariffs from 25% to 18%. This week, we have also the RBI rate decision on Friday where the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady after inflation increased to 1.33% in December vs 0.71% in November and analysts expecting further improvement towards the RBI’s target. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR eventually dropped from the upper bound of the channel and it’s now getting closer to the bottom trendline. We can expect the buyers to step in around the bottom trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the top trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 89.00 handle next.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the selloff in the pair triggered by the positive US-India developments. A break below the bottom trendline should open the door for a move into the swing level at 89.50 which could be the last line of defence for the buyers as a break below that level could change the medium-term trend.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 91.42 level next. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the RBI rate decision and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.