Iran signalled readiness for nuclear talks with the US as envoys prepare to meet in Istanbul, even as military tensions and strike risks remain elevated.Summary:Iran signalled readiness for nuclear talks with the US amid rising military pressureSenior US and Iranian envoys are expected to meet in Istanbul later this weekTalks come as US forces mass in the region and strike risks remain elevatedWashington is pushing for limits on uranium enrichment and missile activityRegional allies are engaged as fears grow of escalation or renewed unrest in IranIran has indicated it is prepared to enter negotiations with the United States over its nuclear programme, as diplomatic activity intensifies against a backdrop of heightened military tensions across the Middle East.Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran remains open to diplomacy, provided talks are conducted with mutual respect and recognition of national interests. His comments come as both sides are reportedly preparing to dispatch senior envoys to Istanbul for high-level discussions later this week, potentially marking the first direct engagement between US and Iranian officials since last year.The diplomatic push coincides with a significant US military build-up in the region. Donald Trump has ordered warships and aircraft into position amid warnings that Washington could strike Iranian targets if negotiations fail. Trump has suggested that talks are already under way and that a deal could avert military action, while also reiterating demands that Iran halt production of highly enriched uranium and curb its ballistic missile programme.According to regional and US media reports, Araghchi is expected to meet Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, in Istanbul alongside representatives from several Arab and Muslim countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. No formal timetable has been announced, but Iranian officials said discussions are being finalised and could conclude within days.The talks would follow a turbulent period marked by direct military confrontation. Last year, Israeli and US forces struck Iranian nuclear and missile facilities after Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles toward Israel during a brief but intense conflict. Satellite imagery released recently suggests Iran has since moved to repair damage at key nuclear sites, including Isfahan and Natanz.Behind the diplomatic push lies mounting concern in Tehran that even a limited US strike could destabilise the regime. Iranian officials have reportedly warned that renewed military action could reignite widespread protests, which have already exposed deep domestic discontent following economic deterioration, high inflation and currency weakness.Regional allies are also bracing for potential fallout. Saudi and Israeli officials have held discussions with US defence officials, while Israel has warned it is prepared for all scenarios and threatened severe retaliation if attacked. With tensions high and diplomacy fragile, markets are watching closely for any signal that talks could ease the risk of a broader regional conflict. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman pushed back on reports questioning Nvidia’s role, saying the company “loves working with Nvidia” and expects to remain a major customer long term, dismissing speculation around chip dissatisfaction as overblown. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US-India trade deal cuts tariffs sharply in exchange for India ending Russian oil imports, easing pressure on Indian exports while reshaping energy flows.Summary:US and India reached a trade deal cutting US tariffs on Indian goods to 18%The US will remove a punitive 25% tariff tied to India’s Russian oil purchasesIndia agreed to halt Russian oil imports and shift supply toward the US and potentially VenezuelaIndian equities rallied sharply, easing pressure on exports and the rupeeDetails remain limited, with no formal proclamation or timeline releasedDonald Trump announced a trade agreement with India that sharply reduces US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from as high as 50%, in exchange for New Delhi committing to end purchases of Russian oil and lower trade barriers for US exports.The announcement followed a call between Trump and Narendra Modi and represents a significant shift in bilateral trade relations after months of tariff pressure. A US official said Washington would rescind a punitive 25% duty imposed last year over India’s continued imports of Russian crude, which had been layered on top of a separate 25% “reciprocal” tariff.Under the agreement, India will redirect oil purchases toward the US and potentially Venezuela, helping to replace Russian supply. The deal also includes commitments from India to raise purchases of US energy, technology, agricultural and other products, alongside broader reductions in tariff and non-tariff barriers.Indian markets reacted positively. US-listed Indian stocks and ETFs posted strong gains, reflecting relief that India’s exports will no longer face a disproportionate tariff burden compared with other Asian economies. Analysts noted that the new 18% rate broadly aligns India with regional peers and removes a key drag on trade competitiveness and currency sentiment.However, details remain scarce. No presidential proclamation or Federal Register notice has been issued, leaving uncertainty around implementation dates, enforcement mechanisms and the precise timeline for ending Russian oil imports. The agreement also lacks the large-scale investment commitments seen in recent US deals with Japan and South Korea.The deal follows India’s recent trade agreement with the European Union and comes as the Trump administration accelerates trade negotiations ahead of a pending US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariff authority. Officials have signalled that bilateral deals will proceed regardless of the court outcome.From an energy perspective, India’s pivot away from Russia marks a notable shift. India has relied heavily on discounted Russian crude since 2022, but imports have already begun to slow, suggesting the transition may already be underway. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZ data. Excluding apartments, flats, and retirement village units, the number of consents for new houses was down 6%.+26.2% y/y This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump’s critical mineral reserve plan aims to build an “industrial buffer stock” model, using Exim-linked financing plus private capital to reduce supply-chain shock risk.Summary:Donald Trump announced a US “critical mineral reserve” initiative, aimed at securing supplies for domestic industry. The plan is framed as a strategic stockpile (often reported as “Project Vault”) to reduce exposure to supply shocks and China-linked bottlenecks. Funding cited includes $10bn in financing via the Export-Import Bank of the United States plus around $2bn from private capital. Structure points to an “oil-reserve style” buffer for critical inputs (rare earths and other key minerals), potentially targeting ~60 days of coverage in reporting.Donald Trump announced the creation of a US critical mineral reserve designed to support American industry and reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions in strategic raw materials. The initiative is being positioned as an industrial backstop, conceptually similar to an emergency reserve, intended to cushion manufacturers from sudden shortages, export controls, or sharp price swings in minerals central to advanced manufacturing, defence supply chains and the clean-energy transition. Funding details cited in reporting point to a roughly $12bn package, anchored by $10bn of financing linked to the Export-Import Bank of the United States, alongside about $2bn in private-sector capital. The involvement of private capital suggests the project is being structured to operate with commercial-style procurement and storage disciplines rather than as a purely government-run stockpile. The announcement also carried a strong “real economy” signal: General Motors CEO Mary Barra was referenced as being present/associated with the launch, underscoring that automakers and industrial end-users are a central constituency for the plan. The reserve concept is aimed at inputs tied to EV supply chains, electronics and defence applications—areas where policymakers argue the US has become too exposed to concentrated overseas processing capacity. Strategically, the move is widely framed as a response to China’s dominant position in parts of the critical minerals supply chain and its demonstrated ability to tighten access via export restrictions. For markets, the key question is execution: the effectiveness of any reserve will depend on what minerals are prioritised, how quickly inventories can be built, and whether parallel investment in domestic processing capacity keeps pace. As an aside, a very niche aside, if you are in Australia and you like Ford Barra engines, no relation... This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia could be the first major global central bank to hike rates in this cycle.We are set to get a decision on the cash rate at 10:30 pm ET and the consensus is for a 25 basis point hike to 3.85%. It's far from a sure thing as economists only shifted their calls over the past couple weeks as inflation and jobs data beat estimates. The market remains uncertain with about a 75% chance of a hike priced in.Of the 31 economists in the Reuters survey, 24 expected a hike and 7 are forecasting no change. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among those forecasting the RBA holds rates but -- notably -- all of the big Australia banks are calling for a hike.The Australian economy has proven resilient as house prices have firmed even with high interest rates. Back in the post-covid period, the RBA was forced into an embarassing backtrack after pledging to hold rates for the long term. Instead, they were among the first to hike rates in May 2022 and ultimately hiked from 0.10% to 4.35%. As economic conditions softened and inflation stabilized, they cut rates in February 2025 in what initially looked like the start of an extended period of rate cuts. Instead, the final cut came in August and now the central bank may be quickly pivoting back to hiking.The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at its last meeting, marking a third consecutive pause in a unanimous decision. While the statement itself was largely neutral and reiterated a data-dependent stance but Governor Bullock was surprisingly hawkish in the press conference. Since then, the market has tip-toed towards a rate hike.But the tipping point came after the jobs report saw unemployment fall to 4.1% from 4.4% IN December as 65.2K jobs were added. December CPI also ran above expectations.Aside from a hike there will be a focus on guidance. The economists' consensus is still that this will be a one-and-done hike for the year but that's rarely the way central banks operate and some firms -- like NAB -- see 4.10% by year end. The RBA will give us its own forecasts via the Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and Bullock will further qualify at 11:30 pm ET.For the Australian dollar, expect a good sized move on the headline, as much as 50 pips in either direction. I increasingly like the Australian dollar backdrop as global growth picks up and metals prices boom. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We are into the swan song phase of Bostic's term as Atlanta Fed President as he will retire on February 28 so I wouldn't put too much weight on these comments:Not through with inflation from tariffsIt's a huge undertaking for Warsh, I wish him the best. He's got a tall taskTo have policy go in a direction you want, have to build trust with committee, show wisdom, guidanceFed chair job is a very large jobBy midyear, will have reached an equilibrium with economyNo one is projecting worsening of labor marketOutlook for 1H of 2026 is for strong economic performance, inflation to stay high and a source of concernUS economy looks resilient even before accounting for tax bill breaks, deregulationI didn't project any rate cuts in 2026One or two cuts would put us a neutralIt's always safer to go out as a hawk because if inflation takes off, you look prescient. If inflation falls, you can always say that you would have hiked later. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Time to revise the US economic calendar as the The Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t release the January jobs report as scheduled on Friday because of the government shutdown.Politicians say they will vote to end the shutdown on Tuesday so the market isn't too fussed but this is annoying.Tuesday's JOLTS report has also been postponed.No other country does this nonsense and it's not conductive to smooth capital markets. For a country that talks about de-regulation and making it easier for business' to work, this is yet-another black eye. Putting together economic data is a trivial cost in the grand scheme of things and blowing up the NFP report in the autumn wrecks statistical continuity. Worse yet, Trump fired the head of the BLS and that raises some major questions about bias, either explicit or subconscious.The Fed is at a tough juncture where it's trying to make some difficult judgments about growth, employment and inflation. Now it's flying blind once again.In all likelihood this will be a short shutdown but this happens time after time and creates uncertainty everywhere. It's an unwelcome dynamic, that's at the very least a headache.That this happens on Groundhog Day is a beautiful dose of irony, as it keeps happening over and over. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump writes on Truth Social that he's reducing tariffs on India, which should be another positive for risk appetite:Tariffs lowered to 18% from 25%India to halt Russian oil imports in favor of US and potentially Venezuelan supplies to reduce conflict funding.India to "move forward" to reduce their tariffs and non tariff barriers against the United States, to zeroTake all these promises with a bit of a grain of salt, as Trump sometimes puts words into other leaders' mouths, especially regarding removing non-tariff barriers. It was an Honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and, a Powerful and Respected Leader of his Country. We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week! Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced Reciprocal Tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%. They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO. The Prime Minister also committed to “BUY AMERICAN,” at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products. Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that GET THINGS DONE, something that cannot be said for most. Thank you for your attention to this matter! This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

A snapshot of the closing levels:STOXX 600 +1.0%German DAX +1.0%Frances CAC +0.8%UK FTSE 100 +1.1%Spain's IBEX +1.3%Italy's FTSE MIB +1.1%There as a nice turnaround in European stocks today, which traded in lockstep with the improvement in US futures and equity markets. The early poor mood carried over from Friday but slowly turned.In the end, the STOXX 600 closed at the best levels of the day and a record high.The STOXX is up 33% since the bottom last April and has been accelerating since the turn of the year. I get the sense that European assets are returning home as governments in the core switch to higher deficit spending. Some of that could also be money fleeing the US as the dollar has substantially underperformed in this same period. Finally, US tech has been a driving force behind US outperformance but there is growing unease about the AI trade and lofty valuations. There's a good argument that AI productivity improvements will have a larger impact in the real economy and that could lead to a re-rate in European stocks, which also have a certain amount of embedded government protection in many industries, along with minimal risk of disruption due to a lack of startups. At the end of the day though, this is mostly about valuations and starting points. Europe is cheaper than the US, by a lot. That's happened because of serially disappointing European growth and ineffective governance. Lately, there is a renewal of pragmatism over idealism in European governing, led by Germany, and that's a better formula for business.Eyes will be on how European growth develops from here. The European car industry remains under an existential threat from Chinese autos and that's going to be a painful issue to navigate. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I highlighted the opportunity in the beaten-up US manufacturing economy earlier today and a pair of reports today underscored the green shoots in an area that's been in recession for years.First, the S&P Global look at US manufacturing was revised in the final report, then the ISM manufacturing survey rose at its fastest pace since 2020 on a jump in new orders. The FX and bond markets have noticed. US 2-year yields are up 4.1 bps to 3.57% while the US dollar is higher across the board. The euro has slipped through 1.18 after rising above 1.20 last week, and briefly spiking to 1.2080. Now that those stops have been taken out, it's been a steady decline back to the lowest since Jan 23.It's not just the euro as the USD strength is broad based. In percentage terms, the 1% climb in USD/CHF is the largest move. Last week, the US Treasury once again refrained from naming any currency manipulators in its semi-annual report, and that includes the Swiss franc. When you zoom out, the pair looks like it's retesting the bottom of the six-month range that gave way last month.Overall, it's a big week for the US dollar and manufacturing is a small part. We get non-farm payrolls and Friday and, more importantly, we could get the first comments from Kevin Warsh now that he's nominated for Fed chair. Every word will be carefully parsed and it's easy for new Fed chairmen to inadvertently send the wrong message.In addition, Powell indicated that Fed officials were seeing better things in the US economy. If that's a widely-shared view, we could soon be seeing a hawkish shift. Right now the market is still pricing in 48 bps in easing this year but a few more reports like the one today and that disappear.I think we're headed in that direction and I think the cleanest way to trade that would be in bonds, where I think we will see a 4% print on 2s this year. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 47.9Prices paid 59.0 vs 59.0 expected (58.5 prior)Employment 48.1 vs 44.9 priorProduction 55.9 vs 50.7 priorNew orders 57.1 vs 47.7 prior (revised to 47.4)Look at that jump in new orders, which is the biggest jump in a month since 2020. That's also the best reading since 2022.Comments in the report don't contain any of the optimism that we see in the headlines.“ ‘Hope’ has been word of the year in the Transportation Equipment industry. Unfortunately, all the hope in the world has not materialized into order activity in 2025 or the first half of 2026. Across the board, buyers continue to stand on the sidelines. As we enter 2026, every conversation revolves around hope that the second half of 2026 starts the turnaround. It’s hard to set strategy on hope, but thanks to the uncertainty brought about by this administration, here we are.” [Transportation Equipment]“Although our volume is low at the moment, the impact on the latest tariff threats on the European Union will have a huge negative impact on our profit for current quoted orders. We will not be able to recover the increase tariffs in our current quotations.” [Machinery]“Continuing softness in the market, with December orders below average and buyers reluctant to spend despite beneficial tax policies in the U.S. Geopolitical tensions are fueling ‘anti-American’ buyer sentiment, and sales are being lost.” [Machinery]“Another round of emotionally charged tariffs seems imminent, changing the landscape once more. Movement of custom product out of China continues, but the progress is slow with new qualifications required for transitioned materials and assemblies.” [Computer & Electronic Products]“Business conditions remain uncertain. Customers are cautious. Broad-based inflation continues. The Supreme Court tariff decision looms.” [Computer & Electronic Products]“Growing construction markets, data centers and energy projects, are straining the contract labor availability. The trade tariff uncertainty is creating volatility in the supply chain.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]“A new year, with new challenges. We are moving manufacturing from China to Mexico — which will now impose tariffs on parts made in China. This push for more of a Mexican supply chain and creates some short-term supply management concerns.” [Chemical Products]“Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless. Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days.” [Fabricated Metal Products]“Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]“Business trends moving into 2026 feature many of the headwinds from the third and fourth quarters of 2025. While the ‘plane’ has steadied, there continues to be uncertainty and added costs through our global operations. Tariff impacts on our financial performance last year cannot be overstated, as we had a much smaller EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) than previous years. While other inflationary pressures continue to hit the business, tariffs and product costs played a large role. This year, we will continue our multi-country sourcing approach to manufacture and import product from more tariff-friendly countries outside of China. But as we know, nothing is guaranteed with the current administration. We have trimmed costs everywhere inside the business, including on labor and conferences, and reduced our revenue forecast to a much more achievable mark. We’re prepared to battle throughout the year for higher profitability.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products] This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Today's stock market exhibits a mix of excitement and trepidation as major movers and sectors paint a varied picture. While certain stocks encounter challenges, others revel in unexpected gains, crafting an intriguing trading landscape.? Auto Manufacturer Impact: Tesla Takes a DiveA significant focal point is the 2.95% dive seen in Tesla (TSLA). The auto sector's woes ripple across, suggesting investor apprehension possibly tied to broader market rumors or recent reports affecting major manufacturers.? Technology & Software Resilience: Spotlight on OracleBuoying the tech sector, Oracle (ORCL) emerges as a beacon with a 3.67% rise, showcasing strong stability. This upward move suggests investor confidence possibly boosted by robust earnings or strategic corporate developments.? Healthcare in the Green: Consistent GainsWith Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) up by 1.05% and Eli Lilly (LLY) gaining 0.52%, the healthcare sector displays fortified performance, perhaps driven by innovation news or positive regulatory approvals, appealing to risk-averse investors.? Financials in Flux: Mixed ReactionsVisa (V) jumps by 2.11%, illustrating optimism within credit services.JPMorgan Chase (JPM) observes a 0.83% decline, amid a cautious outlook in diversified banks.This divergence indicates varied investor sentiment towards financial giants.? Market Mood and TrendsCurrent trading reveals a landscape filled with contrasts. Tech and software show potential resilience, spotlighted by Oracle's ascent, offering hope amid otherwise poor tech sector performance led by Nvidia (NVDA)'s 1.87% drop. The overall market sentiment hesitates in the face of specific sector weaknesses, augmented by underperformance in critical areas like semiconductors and energy.? Strategic RecommendationsConsidering today's dynamics, investors might explore diversification to mitigate risk from unstable sectors. Favoring stocks within thriving healthcare or stable tech firms like Oracle could offer balanced growth opportunities. As fluctuations prevail, maintaining a diverse portfolio ensures adaptability, and checking real-time data on InvestingLive.com empowers informed decisions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Best reading since May 2022Prelim was 51.9Prior was 51.8Exports remained a source of demand weakness,The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour and is expected to tick up to 48.5 from 47.9.Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “News of the joint largest rise in factory production since May 2022 is tainted by reports of ongoing subdued sales growth. Production growth consequently significantly outpaced that of new orders at the start of the year, resulting in a further accumulation of unsold warehouse inventory. “Over the past three months, the survey indicates that factories have typically produced more goods than they have sold to a degree we have not previously seen since the global financial crisis back in early 2009. This highly unusual situation is clearly unsustainable, hinting at risks of a production slowdown and a potential knock-on effect on employment, unless demand improves markedly in the coming months. “Sluggish sales and order book growth are being commonly linked to customer resistance to high prices, in turn often blamed on tariffs, as well as increased uncertainty over the economic outlook. While just below trend, business growth expectations for the year ahead are, however, holding up as firms anticipate improving demand, thanks in part to lower interest rates, reduced import competition due to tariffs, and more government support. However, political uncertainty remains a key drag on business sentiment.”The bolded part is a strange one but you can take it as positive or negative.Earlier, the Canadian PMI for January rose to 50.4 from 48.6.Commenting on the Canadian survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Following a challenging 2025, PMI data suggested that Canada’s manufacturing sector started the new year on a more positive footing. Output stabilised, after nearly a full year of continuous contraction, whilst confidence in the outlook improved and marginal jobs growth was recorded for the first time in 12 months."USD/CAD is up 38 pips to 1.3650 today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Silver experienced its worst single-day loss in over four decades last Friday, plummeting nearly 30% to settle just below $85/oz. Gold didn't escape the carnage either, shedding more than $500/oz to close at $4,865/oz. Despite the dramatic selloff, Scotia Capital's precious metals team is viewing this as a healthy correction rather than a fundamental shift in the market.The analysts characterize the move as removing "speculative froth" that had gripped silver in recent weeks. What's striking is how little ground was actually lost in the broader context—silver prices have only retraced to mid-January levels, roughly 14 trading days ago. For gold, the retracement spans just six trading days, underscoring how parabolic the recent rally had become.Scotia's team argues that the core drivers supporting silver remain intact. They're maintaining their top picks of Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Hochschild Mining (HOC-LON), pointing to robust profit margins for miners. Their covered silver producers are sitting on all-in sustaining costs ranging from $20/oz to $28/oz, which leaves substantial breathing room even after the correction. Free cash flow yields for these companies average around 10% at current spot prices for 2026.The market mechanics tell an interesting story. The one-month silver lease rate has dropped below 1%, suggesting physical tightness has eased following the postponement of US tariffs under the Section 232 investigation. COMEX silver inventories stand at 406 million ounces, down from recent highs above 500 million ounces as market participants had been positioning for potential tariff impacts.The gold-to-silver ratio has rebounded to 53:1 as of Friday from the low 50s earlier in the week. Exchange-traded product holdings have declined by approximately 33 million ounces since the start of January when they stood at 1.26 billion ounces. Much of the action played out through the SLV ETF, which saw extraordinary volume exceeding 500 million shares on Friday alone.Scotia notes that COMEX futures and options positioning shows a declining net long position, likely driven by increased margin requirements that squeezed out leveraged speculators. This is textbook deleveraging, and the analysts expect continued volatility in the weeks ahead as speculative positioning continues to unwind.Silver has averaged around $91/oz quarter-to-date, which still provides healthy margins for producers if prices stabilize at elevated levels. The team describes their outlook as "stronger for longer" for silver prices, even accounting for the recent volatility. Historical context matters here—despite the selloff, silver remains well above its trading range from the past several decades.They note that free cash flow yields have actually improved following Friday's equity corrections, as the equities fell hard.The fundamental scarcity of high-quality primary silver mines remains a supportive factor for the sector. With production costs well below current prices and strong cash flow generation, Scotia sees the mining companies as well-positioned to weather the volatility. Their mixed rating reflects the near-term uncertainty around price action while maintaining conviction in the longer-term outlook for both the metal and quality producers.Details:Pan American Silver (PAAS-Q)Rating: Sector Outperform (SO)Price (Jan 30, 2026): US$54.601-Year Price Target: US$64.00Valuation Context: The report highlights that PAAS remains a top pick, supported by a robust profit outlook for miners and strong forecast Free Cash Flow yields.Hochschild Mining (HOC-L)Rating: Sector Outperform (SO)Price (Jan 30, 2026): GBP 6.761-Year Price Target: GBP 9.00Risk Profile: Key risks identified include volatility in gold and silver prices, geopolitical risks, and potential operational issues at Peruvian and Brazilian sites. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I saw some interesting charts last week showing that Florida housing inventory was trending lower.It went against one of the strongest macro trends in the past two years -- housing weakness. Now it's early days but that's a theme worth exploring as there are some beaten up assets in the housing space and a resurgence in home prices would have positive knock-ons for consumer spending.Similarly, manufacturing has struggled badly but there were some green shoots in the Chicago PMI on Friday and you have to think that Trump's industrial policy will have some effect at some point. It's an area that's been left of dead with all the focus on AI but it's still a big part of the economy and potentially a big opportunity.The US macro week kicks off today at 9:45 am ET with the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for January, following a preliminary reading of 51.9. That's followed 15 minutes later by the ISM Manufacturing report, where consensus expectations point to 48.5, slightly above last month's 48.3 but still below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.Later in the week:Tuesday we get JOLTS and Wednesday offers the ADP Employment report for January (consensus: 45K) and the S&P Global US Services PMI. The services sector has shown more resilience, with the prior reading at 52.5. For more see the economic calendar.Thursday morning features the weekly initial claims data for late January, with consensus estimates at 210K and 1850K respectively.The week culminates Friday with the most anticipated release: January's jobs report. Markets are expecting Non-Farm Payrolls of 50K, down from the prior month's 65K reading. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to show 0.3% monthly growth, matching the previous month.In terms of corporate earnings, here are the names to watch. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Precious metals bounce back to trim losses on the dayHas the bull market in gold ended? History suggests yesEuropean stocks turn things around after a rough start to the new weekUSD/JPY inches up to start the day after Takaichi kerfuffleWhat's at stake now as the US partial shutdown drags to at least Tuesday?RBA preview: Ignore the rate hike and focus on the forward guidanceGermany December retail sales +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedEurozone January final manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 49.4 prelimUK January final manufacturing PMI 51.8 vs 51.6 prelimUK January Nationwide house prices +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expectedMarkets:Gold down 2% to $4,792 but well off 10% drop earlierSilver down 1.8% to $83.68 but well off 16% drop earlierS&P 500 futures -0.3%, Nasdaq futures -0.6%; Nvidia pulls OpenAI investmentEuropean equities higher after weak start, DAX +0.9%USD leads, CHF lags on the dayWTI crude oil down 5.3% to $62.23US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.231%Bitcoin up 1.2% to $77,855 after brief drop under $75,000 earlierIt's quite the exciting start to the week, even if it is not as dramatic as how we ended January trading on Friday last week.Precious metals were once again in the spotlight as the volatile selling continued towards the tail end of Asia trading. Gold dropped by 10% at one point with silver down roughly 16% at the lows before a modest recovery in European morning trade.Both gold and silver have now trimmed declines to roughly 2% only with the former at $4,792 and latter at $83.68 on the day. For some context, the lows for the day for both were at $4,402 and $71.31 respectively. So, that paints a better picture of the bounce we're seeing on the session.As the focus stays on the pullback/correction in precious metals, the dollar continues to find itself in a steadier position. EUR/USD is trading little changed at 1.1848 amid a tighter range with GBP/USD likewise at 1.3686 on the day.Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains underpinned after a bit of a kerfuffle from Japan prime minister Takaichi over the weekend. The currency pair is up 0.1% just under the 155.00 level after Takaichi delivered a positive bias for a weaker yen before trying to walk back on her comments after.In the equities space, things got off to a rough start with European indices opening lower but recovering that and then some as the market turbulence eased during the session. To put things into perspective, the DAX was down around 0.8% early on but recovered well to be up 0.9% instead now.As for US futures, the mood music remains more cautious. Tech shares are still lagging amid AI concerns, that especially after Nvidia pulled investment on OpenAI. That could really open a can of worms and have a domino effect on the space, so just be wary of that.S&P 500 futures are still down 0.3% but at least well off earlier lows of around 1.1%. Nasdaq futures are the same as well, down 0.6% now after being lower by as much at 1.5% earlier in the day.Elsewhere, we're seeing a big move in the oil market as well with prices dropping hard amid hopes for US-Iran de-escalation. WTI crude oil is down over 5% to $62.23, falling back to test its 200-day moving average after last week's rise. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons to appreciate, but there wasn’t a reason for such a strong selloff either. The US data continues to improve, especially on the labour market side as the US Jobless Claims seem to suggest a re-acceleration in activity. February might be the month when the US Dollar comes back with a vengeance if we get another strong set of economic data. The NFP report is certainly the main highlight of this week, but we will get many other top tier data that could give the greenback a boost. The market is pricing 55 bps of easing by year-end and those bets will be pared back in case the data strengthens. Conversely, if the data comes out softer than expected, then we could see the US Dollar coming back under pressure, although the momentum shouldn’t be as strong as the prior weeks.EUR:On the EUR side, the ECB members started to feel uneasy as EUR/USD crossed the 1.20 level last week. This is kind of a line in the sand as ECB’s Vice President de Guindos last year said that a rise above 1.20 would complicate things for them.This week, we have the ECB policy decision where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and reaffirm their neutral stance. The risk is that the ECB jawbones the euro more heavily although they don’t have a reason to do so yet given that the recent data has been stronger than expected.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the 1.20 level but eventually erased the gains as ECB policymakers jawboned the currency and the US data continued to improve. We have a key swing level near the 1.18 handle which could act as support. The buyers will likely step in there with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.16 handle next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new cycle highs.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the resistance zone around the 1.19 handle where we can find the downward trendline. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to extend the gains into new highs. The red line define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the Eurozone Flash CPI, the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we have the ECB policy decision and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The start of the day was a rather poor one for major indices in Europe. That as risk sentiment was on the rocks after some heavy selling in Asian equities as well. The turbulent environment across broader markets didn't help with Nvidia pulling investment on OpenAI, volatile selling in precious metals, cryptocurrencies coming under pressure, and purported ambivalence towards Trump's Fed chair pick in Kevin Warsh.When you tie all those factors in, it did keep the market mood more nervous and unsettling. That especially with gold and silver facing another rout at the tail end of Asia trading. But amid a modest bounce in precious metals, we are seeing a bit more of a calmer mood in the risk side of things as well.European equities were down around 0.5% to 0.8% in the opening hour but have now recovered across the board:Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.8%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7%Meanwhile, US futures have also trimmed declines considerably with the snapshot as per the following:Dow futures -0.1%S&P 500 futures -0.4%Nasdaq futures -0.7%For some context, S&P 500 futures were down around 1.1% at the start of the session with tech shares leading declines as Nasdaq futures were down by as much as 1.5% at one point. And now, things are looking less bleak at the very least.As highlighted above, there are still pressure points for risk sentiment on the day. So, that is not going to make it easy for investors to feel comfortable to turn the switch back on to get into another rallying mood.But at least at this stage, there is some hopeful optimism although a lot of that will be tied to the volatility bouts we're seeing with the likes of gold and silver still. So, be sure to keep a close watch on that if anything else. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It is still a volatile environment with the heavy selling hitting earlier just now at the tail end of Asia trading. But as we shift to European morning trade, we're seeing buying appetite return so far on the session. Gold is up over $350 from its lows, cutting losses to "only" 2.6% on the day now. Meanwhile, silver is up around $12 in a modest bounce off its lows - still down 2.3% on the day though.Well, at least it's not double-digit percentage declines for silver eh? To put things into perspective, the plunge earlier had silver down roughly 16% at the lows. Ouch.So, what's next? Has the volatile and intense selling/correction run its course?It's not so simple and straightforward to extrapolate from the "slight" bounce we're seeing on the session. Again, it would be a fool's errand to be picking bottoms and trying to catch a falling knife.So far, the bounce points to a bit of a relief and breather after the sharp one-sided drop in the past two days. Just like how if price moves too far, too fast in any one direction, there's bound to be a corrective force eventually.However, whether or not this is the start of a more material rebound remains to be seen. The best we can do now is to dig into the price action and look for clues on that.And when it comes to sharp rebounds/pullbacks, Fib retracement levels always do well in helping to provide a rough gauge of sentiment.For gold, we're seeing price action move back above the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the sharp drop from last week. It's encouraging but as the technicals show, that is the first step and the bare minimum in trying to muster any potential stronger rebound. The 38.2 Fib retracement level is up next around $4,860 and will provide a better sense of the dip buying momentum if we do get there.As for silver, we're seeing price only now come up to start to contest the 23.6 Fib retracement level near $83.20. A push back above $90 is the next step to try and convince that the correction may have run its course.But otherwise, we're mostly just seeing a bit of a breather and perhaps some scope for consolidation eventually before any real momentum plays return for precious metals. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.