Silver experienced its worst single-day loss in over four decades last Friday, plummeting nearly 30% to settle just below $85/oz. Gold didn't escape the carnage either, shedding more than $500/oz to close at $4,865/oz. Despite the dramatic selloff, Scotia Capital's precious metals team is viewing this as a healthy correction rather than a fundamental shift in the market.The analysts characterize the move as removing "speculative froth" that had gripped silver in recent weeks. What's striking is how little ground was actually lost in the broader context—silver prices have only retraced to mid-January levels, roughly 14 trading days ago. For gold, the retracement spans just six trading days, underscoring how parabolic the recent rally had become.Scotia's team argues that the core drivers supporting silver remain intact. They're maintaining their top picks of Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Hochschild Mining (HOC-LON), pointing to robust profit margins for miners. Their covered silver producers are sitting on all-in sustaining costs ranging from $20/oz to $28/oz, which leaves substantial breathing room even after the correction. Free cash flow yields for these companies average around 10% at current spot prices for 2026.The market mechanics tell an interesting story. The one-month silver lease rate has dropped below 1%, suggesting physical tightness has eased following the postponement of US tariffs under the Section 232 investigation. COMEX silver inventories stand at 406 million ounces, down from recent highs above 500 million ounces as market participants had been positioning for potential tariff impacts.The gold-to-silver ratio has rebounded to 53:1 as of Friday from the low 50s earlier in the week. Exchange-traded product holdings have declined by approximately 33 million ounces since the start of January when they stood at 1.26 billion ounces. Much of the action played out through the SLV ETF, which saw extraordinary volume exceeding 500 million shares on Friday alone.Scotia notes that COMEX futures and options positioning shows a declining net long position, likely driven by increased margin requirements that squeezed out leveraged speculators. This is textbook deleveraging, and the analysts expect continued volatility in the weeks ahead as speculative positioning continues to unwind.Silver has averaged around $91/oz quarter-to-date, which still provides healthy margins for producers if prices stabilize at elevated levels. The team describes their outlook as "stronger for longer" for silver prices, even accounting for the recent volatility. Historical context matters here—despite the selloff, silver remains well above its trading range from the past several decades.They note that free cash flow yields have actually improved following Friday's equity corrections, as the equities fell hard.The fundamental scarcity of high-quality primary silver mines remains a supportive factor for the sector. With production costs well below current prices and strong cash flow generation, Scotia sees the mining companies as well-positioned to weather the volatility. Their mixed rating reflects the near-term uncertainty around price action while maintaining conviction in the longer-term outlook for both the metal and quality producers.Details:Pan American Silver (PAAS-Q)Rating: Sector Outperform (SO)Price (Jan 30, 2026): US$54.601-Year Price Target: US$64.00Valuation Context: The report highlights that PAAS remains a top pick, supported by a robust profit outlook for miners and strong forecast Free Cash Flow yields.Hochschild Mining (HOC-L)Rating: Sector Outperform (SO)Price (Jan 30, 2026): GBP 6.761-Year Price Target: GBP 9.00Risk Profile: Key risks identified include volatility in gold and silver prices, geopolitical risks, and potential operational issues at Peruvian and Brazilian sites. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I saw some interesting charts last week showing that Florida housing inventory was trending lower.It went against one of the strongest macro trends in the past two years -- housing weakness. Now it's early days but that's a theme worth exploring as there are some beaten up assets in the housing space and a resurgence in home prices would have positive knock-ons for consumer spending.Similarly, manufacturing has struggled badly but there were some green shoots in the Chicago PMI on Friday and you have to think that Trump's industrial policy will have some effect at some point. It's an area that's been left of dead with all the focus on AI but it's still a big part of the economy and potentially a big opportunity.The US macro week kicks off today at 9:45 am ET with the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for January, following a preliminary reading of 51.9. That's followed 15 minutes later by the ISM Manufacturing report, where consensus expectations point to 48.5, slightly above last month's 48.3 but still below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.Later in the week:Tuesday we get JOLTS and Wednesday offers the ADP Employment report for January (consensus: 45K) and the S&P Global US Services PMI. The services sector has shown more resilience, with the prior reading at 52.5. For more see the economic calendar.Thursday morning features the weekly initial claims data for late January, with consensus estimates at 210K and 1850K respectively.The week culminates Friday with the most anticipated release: January's jobs report. Markets are expecting Non-Farm Payrolls of 50K, down from the prior month's 65K reading. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to show 0.3% monthly growth, matching the previous month.In terms of corporate earnings, here are the names to watch. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Precious metals bounce back to trim losses on the dayHas the bull market in gold ended? History suggests yesEuropean stocks turn things around after a rough start to the new weekUSD/JPY inches up to start the day after Takaichi kerfuffleWhat's at stake now as the US partial shutdown drags to at least Tuesday?RBA preview: Ignore the rate hike and focus on the forward guidanceGermany December retail sales +0.1% vs +0.2% m/m expectedEurozone January final manufacturing PMI 49.5 vs 49.4 prelimUK January final manufacturing PMI 51.8 vs 51.6 prelimUK January Nationwide house prices +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expectedMarkets:Gold down 2% to $4,792 but well off 10% drop earlierSilver down 1.8% to $83.68 but well off 16% drop earlierS&P 500 futures -0.3%, Nasdaq futures -0.6%; Nvidia pulls OpenAI investmentEuropean equities higher after weak start, DAX +0.9%USD leads, CHF lags on the dayWTI crude oil down 5.3% to $62.23US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.231%Bitcoin up 1.2% to $77,855 after brief drop under $75,000 earlierIt's quite the exciting start to the week, even if it is not as dramatic as how we ended January trading on Friday last week.Precious metals were once again in the spotlight as the volatile selling continued towards the tail end of Asia trading. Gold dropped by 10% at one point with silver down roughly 16% at the lows before a modest recovery in European morning trade.Both gold and silver have now trimmed declines to roughly 2% only with the former at $4,792 and latter at $83.68 on the day. For some context, the lows for the day for both were at $4,402 and $71.31 respectively. So, that paints a better picture of the bounce we're seeing on the session.As the focus stays on the pullback/correction in precious metals, the dollar continues to find itself in a steadier position. EUR/USD is trading little changed at 1.1848 amid a tighter range with GBP/USD likewise at 1.3686 on the day.Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains underpinned after a bit of a kerfuffle from Japan prime minister Takaichi over the weekend. The currency pair is up 0.1% just under the 155.00 level after Takaichi delivered a positive bias for a weaker yen before trying to walk back on her comments after.In the equities space, things got off to a rough start with European indices opening lower but recovering that and then some as the market turbulence eased during the session. To put things into perspective, the DAX was down around 0.8% early on but recovered well to be up 0.9% instead now.As for US futures, the mood music remains more cautious. Tech shares are still lagging amid AI concerns, that especially after Nvidia pulled investment on OpenAI. That could really open a can of worms and have a domino effect on the space, so just be wary of that.S&P 500 futures are still down 0.3% but at least well off earlier lows of around 1.1%. Nasdaq futures are the same as well, down 0.6% now after being lower by as much at 1.5% earlier in the day.Elsewhere, we're seeing a big move in the oil market as well with prices dropping hard amid hopes for US-Iran de-escalation. WTI crude oil is down over 5% to $62.23, falling back to test its 200-day moving average after last week's rise. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar rebounded in the final part of last week with analysts pointing to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair as the main catalyst. The reality is that the selloff in the greenback wasn’t backed by fundamentals in the first place. The greenback didn’t have strong reasons to appreciate, but there wasn’t a reason for such a strong selloff either. The US data continues to improve, especially on the labour market side as the US Jobless Claims seem to suggest a re-acceleration in activity. February might be the month when the US Dollar comes back with a vengeance if we get another strong set of economic data. The NFP report is certainly the main highlight of this week, but we will get many other top tier data that could give the greenback a boost. The market is pricing 55 bps of easing by year-end and those bets will be pared back in case the data strengthens. Conversely, if the data comes out softer than expected, then we could see the US Dollar coming back under pressure, although the momentum shouldn’t be as strong as the prior weeks.EUR:On the EUR side, the ECB members started to feel uneasy as EUR/USD crossed the 1.20 level last week. This is kind of a line in the sand as ECB’s Vice President de Guindos last year said that a rise above 1.20 would complicate things for them.This week, we have the ECB policy decision where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and reaffirm their neutral stance. The risk is that the ECB jawbones the euro more heavily although they don’t have a reason to do so yet given that the recent data has been stronger than expected.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the 1.20 level but eventually erased the gains as ECB policymakers jawboned the currency and the US data continued to improve. We have a key swing level near the 1.18 handle which could act as support. The buyers will likely step in there with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.16 handle next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new cycle highs.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the resistance zone around the 1.19 handle where we can find the downward trendline. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to extend the gains into new highs. The red line define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the Eurozone Flash CPI, the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we have the ECB policy decision and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The start of the day was a rather poor one for major indices in Europe. That as risk sentiment was on the rocks after some heavy selling in Asian equities as well. The turbulent environment across broader markets didn't help with Nvidia pulling investment on OpenAI, volatile selling in precious metals, cryptocurrencies coming under pressure, and purported ambivalence towards Trump's Fed chair pick in Kevin Warsh.When you tie all those factors in, it did keep the market mood more nervous and unsettling. That especially with gold and silver facing another rout at the tail end of Asia trading. But amid a modest bounce in precious metals, we are seeing a bit more of a calmer mood in the risk side of things as well.European equities were down around 0.5% to 0.8% in the opening hour but have now recovered across the board:Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.8%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.8%Italy FTSE MIB +0.7%Meanwhile, US futures have also trimmed declines considerably with the snapshot as per the following:Dow futures -0.1%S&P 500 futures -0.4%Nasdaq futures -0.7%For some context, S&P 500 futures were down around 1.1% at the start of the session with tech shares leading declines as Nasdaq futures were down by as much as 1.5% at one point. And now, things are looking less bleak at the very least.As highlighted above, there are still pressure points for risk sentiment on the day. So, that is not going to make it easy for investors to feel comfortable to turn the switch back on to get into another rallying mood.But at least at this stage, there is some hopeful optimism although a lot of that will be tied to the volatility bouts we're seeing with the likes of gold and silver still. So, be sure to keep a close watch on that if anything else. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It is still a volatile environment with the heavy selling hitting earlier just now at the tail end of Asia trading. But as we shift to European morning trade, we're seeing buying appetite return so far on the session. Gold is up over $350 from its lows, cutting losses to "only" 2.6% on the day now. Meanwhile, silver is up around $12 in a modest bounce off its lows - still down 2.3% on the day though.Well, at least it's not double-digit percentage declines for silver eh? To put things into perspective, the plunge earlier had silver down roughly 16% at the lows. Ouch.So, what's next? Has the volatile and intense selling/correction run its course?It's not so simple and straightforward to extrapolate from the "slight" bounce we're seeing on the session. Again, it would be a fool's errand to be picking bottoms and trying to catch a falling knife.So far, the bounce points to a bit of a relief and breather after the sharp one-sided drop in the past two days. Just like how if price moves too far, too fast in any one direction, there's bound to be a corrective force eventually.However, whether or not this is the start of a more material rebound remains to be seen. The best we can do now is to dig into the price action and look for clues on that.And when it comes to sharp rebounds/pullbacks, Fib retracement levels always do well in helping to provide a rough gauge of sentiment.For gold, we're seeing price action move back above the 23.6 Fib retracement level of the sharp drop from last week. It's encouraging but as the technicals show, that is the first step and the bare minimum in trying to muster any potential stronger rebound. The 38.2 Fib retracement level is up next around $4,860 and will provide a better sense of the dip buying momentum if we do get there.As for silver, we're seeing price only now come up to start to contest the 23.6 Fib retracement level near $83.20. A push back above $90 is the next step to try and convince that the correction may have run its course.But otherwise, we're mostly just seeing a bit of a breather and perhaps some scope for consolidation eventually before any real momentum plays return for precious metals. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe final two days of last week will go in the history books. Gold fell by more than 16% in just two days and extended the losses to 21% today. The risks for a correction were everywhere as the conditions didn’t justify the parabolic surge of the last two weeks. The market got so overstretched that it triggered a quick crash. The most cited reason for the selloff was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Analysts pointed out that he was a hawk during his last term at the Fed, but his recent speeches were all dovish. The historical stance is also never a guarantee. I’m sceptical that Warsh was really the catalyst as the underlying reasons were already pointing to lower prices. Anyway, the last times we got such big crashes they eventually marked the tops in the bull market. This time might be different but for now the fundamentals are against higher prices. This week, the most important catalyst will be the US NFP report. We’ve been seeing improvements in the US Jobless Claims data that seem to suggest a pickup in labour market activity. A strong report would trigger a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations and put further pressure on gold. The other top tier data could also start to weigh on gold if they come out strong, but the NFP report should be the main event of the week. In case we don’t get the bearish catalysts, we could see a rebound in gold but we are unlikely to see new all-time highs any time soon. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see we had a huge crash in gold in the last two days of last week. The price bounced on the major trendline as the dip-buyers stepped in to target a new all-time highs. The sellers will want to see the price falling back below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 3887 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the bounce on the trendline as the dip-buyers piled in after the huge selloff. There’s not much else we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we had a minor downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum. The price is now breaking higher so we can expect the buyers to increase the bullish bets into the next trendline around the 5000 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the gains into the all-time highs next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we get the US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Nasdaq futures have staged a rebound from the lows, but broader orderFlow context suggests this move remains corrective inside a bearish auction, rather than the start of a sustained bullish phase. But first, I dive into the bigger picture of the Nasdaq futures in my video below, enjpy:--------- NASDAQ TRADER-UPDATE08:05 ET – Monday, February 2Nasdaq futures are showing increased selling participation as price trades near the upper junctions highlighted earlier. While this does not yet signal a reversal, it does mark a shift toward a more contested, two-sided environment.Selling activity has picked up near these higher levels, suggesting sellers are actively testing demand rather than standing aside. So far, that pressure has not produced clear downside displacement, meaning buyers are still absorbing some of the supply.This raises the bar for further upside continuation.Key levels remain in focus$25,525 and $25,600 remain the next upside reaction zones if price continues higher.$25,485 is still the key downside reference. A move back below this level would signal a return into today’s value area.The $25,500 round number remains an important pivot, even after being crossed, as it often regains influence later in the session.What to watch nextWhether selling pressure begins to push price lower, not just slow it down.Whether price can hold above $25,485 despite heavier participation.How price reacts around $25,500–$25,525 as the session develops.For now, the market is more contested, not decisively bearish.Trade at your own risk.----------------------------------------NASDAQ TRADER-UPDATE: Price pushes higher, but key junctions remain in playNasdaq futures are extending higher this morning, with price now crossing above the $25,485 value area high from earlier in the session. That move confirms that bulls are currently in control of the short-term auction, lifting price out of balance rather than rejecting it.That said, this advance is still unfolding inside a decision-heavy environment, where participation and follow-through, not momentum alone, will determine what comes next.What order flow is showing beneath the moveAs price pushed higher, activity increased rather than dried up. Recent price action reflects healthy participation, suggesting this move is not a low-liquidity drift. Both buyers and sellers are actively engaging at these higher levels.Importantly, selling attempts have not yet translated into downside displacement. Periods of mixed or negative pressure have struggled to push price meaningfully lower, which points to absorption rather than aggressive bearish initiative.At the same time, upside progress has been measured rather than impulsive. This tells us the market is still working inventory higher, rather than breaking into a runaway trend.In simple terms, the market is advancing, but it is still deciding, not concluding.Key levels that matter from here on Nasdaa futuresAs price continues higher, attention shifts to new reaction zones, while earlier levels remain highly relevant if price rotates back down.Upside reaction levels to watch$25,525 – First area where participation may shift as price stretches higher.$25,600 – A later junction to monitor for potential hesitation or reaction if the move continues.Key downside reference points$25,485 – Former value area high. A reversal back below this level would signal a return into today’s value.$25,500 round number – Still a major reference. Even after being crossed, round numbers often regain influence later in the session as algorithms reassess positioning.An important reminder for Nasdaq futures tradersMarkets do not forget important junctions simply because price temporarily moves away from them.Even if price behaves differently than initially anticipated, key levels retain their pull power. Larger participants and algorithms often re-engage these areas later in the day, sometimes hours after they first come into focus.This is why professional traders keep prior value highs, round numbers, and high-participation zones on their radar throughout the session. The game keeps moving, but the map stays relevant.What to watch nextWhether price can hold above $25,485 without slipping back into value.How price behaves as it approaches $25,525 and later $25,600.Whether selling pressure eventually produces real displacement, or continues to be absorbed.For now, bulls have the upper hand, but this remains a reaction-driven environment, not one to trade on assumptions.Trade at your own risk.--------------Video walkthrough: Key Nasdaq futures levels and why they matterIn today’s video update, I walk through the Nasdaq futures structure using higher-timeframe reference points to explain why short-term rebounds still need to be treated with caution.The analysis starts with a major pivot low from late December, which continues to act as a structural anchor for the current market phase. From that low, an anchored VWAP has been plotted, shown on the chart as a purple line. That anchored VWAP is currently acting as resistance, not support.This distinction matters. On Friday, price was trading very close to that anchored VWAP from below, and today it remains a key line in the sand. If price were to retrace toward it from below and fail, it would reinforce the idea that sellers still have the upper hand.One level highlighted in particular is $25,536, which sits just below that anchored VWAP and coincides with a prior structural low. This zone acts as a reference point for assessing the strength of any rebound. If price cannot even retrace toward that area, it suggests sellers remain aggressive and are not allowing buyers much room to rebuild momentum.Another important reference is a declining red trend line that has acted as support on multiple prior occasions. Despite the recent bounce, that line has not yet been retested, which increases the odds that price may still rotate lower to test it before any broader recovery can be trusted.From an order flow perspective, the video emphasizes that short-term rebounds do not automatically invalidate bearish control. While lower timeframes may show temporary strength, broader order flow still suggests sellers are slightly stronger than buyers so far today.The analysis then shifts to Friday’s session structure. Friday’s value area low sits near $25,631, a level that becomes relevant if price continues higher. This is not just another random number. It represents an area where volume previously concentrated, meaning algorithms and larger participants often pay attention there.For traders, this has practical implications. If price approaches that zone during a rebound, it can be a logical area to reduce exposure or take partial profits, as two-way trade and hesitation are common around such levels.Above that, the video highlights Friday’s point of control near $25,720, along with Friday’s VWAP in the same general area. When multiple reference levels cluster together, they form what can be thought of as decision junctions, zones where the market often pauses to reassess direction.Another level discussed is the first upper standard deviation of the anchored VWAP, near $25,900. This sits well above current price and represents a further junction that would only come into play if buyers prove stronger than currently anticipated.Finally, I introduce a modified pitchfork and trend structure to provide context, showing how price has been moving between key reference zones rather than trending freely. This reinforces a core takeaway for traders: price is being guided by risk management decisions from larger participants, not by random candle patterns.Okay, now, what about the Nasdaq order flow analysis for today so far? While short-term candles and momentum indicators may look constructive, the underlying order flow tells a more nuanced story.What orderFlow at Nasdaq Futures Today is showing beneath the surfaceHigher-timeframe value remains lower. On larger range-based orderFlow views, value has migrated down and has not been reclaimed. This tells us the market is still accepting lower prices, even as short-term buying appears.VWAP is still acting as a ceiling, not support. Price has tested into the VWAP zone but has not built acceptance above it. In orderFlow terms, that signals responsive buying, not initiative control.Recent buying was absorbed, not extended. Earlier selling pressure stopped pushing price lower, which allowed a bounce. However, that bounce failed to convert into sustained upside acceptance. This is typical of inventory adjustment, not a regime change.Selling pressure returns near structure. As price moved higher, sellers re-engaged near prior value and VWAP, indicating that larger participants are still using rallies to distribute risk rather than chase higher prices.In short, the market is balancing short-term buying against higher-timeframe selling control.The key price levels that change the story for Nasdaq Futures TodayBullish thresholdSustained acceptance above $25,500 (less likely)If price can hold above this level and build value there, it would signal that buyers are no longer just absorbing pressure, but actually taking control of the auction. That would materially change the outlook.Bearish thresholdAcceptance back below $25,400 (more likely)A move back below this level, especially with follow-through, reinforces the view that the recent rally was corrective. In that case, downside risk reasserts toward lower value zones.How to think about this environment for today's Nasdaq analysisThis is not a market that rewards chasing candles or relying solely on indicators. OrderFlow shows a sell-the-rally structure, where short-term strength must prove itself at key acceptance levels before it can be trusted.Until the bullish threshold is reclaimed and held, rallies remain vulnerable. Until the bearish threshold breaks decisively, expect tactical noise rather than straight-line continuation.Trade at your own risk.For more real-time trader updates, trade ideas, and orderFlow-driven insights, join our free Telegram channel: https://t.me/investingLiveStocksUpdate on Nasdaq Future Live: Watching acceptance and buyer commitment near value highsAs price continued to grind higher, Nasdaq futures reached the upper edge of the developing value area, a dynamic zone that has been recalculating as activity increased.At the time of writing:VWAP is near $25,386Point of control remains near $25,400Value area high is near $25,466Rather than being rejected sharply, price has been leaning into this zone, which already tells us something important. Markets that intend to reverse lower usually do so quickly from value highs. Grinding behavior instead signals that inventory is still being worked through.However, the most recent order flow adds an important layer of nuance.A notable bar formed shortly after the round-hour window, with elevated volume relative to surrounding bars, while price held firm near the value area high. That kind of activity often reflects larger participants actively engaging liquidity rather than price moving on low participation.What followed is equally important.Subsequent bars failed to extend higher and instead opened back below the value area high and below recent high-volume zones, with buying pressure becoming less visible. This does not yet constitute a rejection, but it does introduce a pause in buyer commitment.In other words, the market accepted higher prices, but now needs to prove it still wants them.Why this matters (an educational note for Nasdaq futures traders)This sequence highlights a key concept that many traders miss:High volume alone is not bullish or bearishWhat matters is what price does after that volume appearsWhen heavy activity shows up near a key level and price does not move away decisively, it often means one side is absorbing the other. The next few bars then become critical, because they reveal whether that absorption turns into continuation or simply exhausts participation.Another important takeaway is the role of value area highs.Value highs are not static resistance lines. When price grinds into them and value recalculates upward, it means the market is attempting to accept higher prices. Failure here tends to show up not as an immediate collapse, but as loss of upside follow-through, often before price visibly turns lower.This is why professional traders focus less on single candles and more on sequences and behavior around key reference zones.What we are monitoring from hereWhether price can reclaim and hold above the value area highWhether buying pressure reappears on pullbacks rather than fadingOr whether continued hesitation near value leads to rotation back into balanceAt this stage, the market is still deciding. There is no confirmed breakout, but also no confirmed rejection.So, Nasdaq futures traders...The broader view remains unchanged: this is a corrective rally inside a larger bearish auction, and rallies still need to prove themselves.The new development adds an important refinement:Buyers have pushed price higherBut they now need to recommit near value highs to avoid rotationUntil that happens, traders should remain selective, patient, and aware that acceptance matters more than momentary price spikes.For ongoing real-time updates and orderFlow-driven insights like this, join our free Telegram channel: https://t.me/investingLiveStocksWe focus on helping traders understand why markets behave the way they do, not just what the candles show. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Credit Agricole notes that a lot of the negatives surrounding the US dollar are now priced into the currency already. And given the circumstances in play, that provides a scope for the greenback to rebound in perhaps the coming three to six months period.The firm argues that despite upgrading their forecast for gold this year, they believe that dollar bulls should not "throw in the towel just yet". For some context, Credit Agricole was out last week with this note on gold:"We mark to market our XAU forecasts and expect gold to remain above USD5,000/oz in H126. We doubt that the current pace of gains would be sustained, however, and think further that the gold rally could start running out of steam in H226.""In particular: We expect that, like 2025, global geopolitical and US political risks could start to fade while the ‘sell America trade’ could ultimately fail to materialise as the year progresses. In turn, this could help the USD stabilise vs XAU in H226."Adding that they see gold at $5,100 in Q4 2026 and then $5,500 in Q4 2027.Circling back to the dollar, the firm says that:"The “Sell America” trade has recently grown into a full-blown USD crisis that poses some risks to our above-consensus outlook for the currency. We have upgraded our gold forecasts as a result but believe that it is too early for the USD bulls to throw in the towel just yet. This is because, like in 2025: (1) the “sell America” trade has already gone into reverse; (2) US government shutdown risks need not last; and (3) growing geopolitical risks centred around Iran could boost the safe-haven appeal of the USD.""Our historic analysis further suggests that the USD’s path since the 2024 election has been similar to its evolution after President Donald Trump’s 2016 election win. Using Trump 1.0 as a template would also signal that many negatives are in the USD price and that a rebound could be on the cards in the next three to six months." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to hike the Cash Rate by 25 bps and bring it to 3.85% following hot employment and inflation data. In fact, the latest jobs report showed a much bigger than expected gain in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% vs 4.3% prior. That's when the market started to price in a rate hike at the February meeting with the Australian Dollar surging across the board. The case was sealed following higher than expected inflation data in the Q4 CPI report where the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y rose to 3.4% vs 3.0% prior. This is much higher than RBA's 2-3% target and counter to the central bank's forecasts. In fact, the RBA expected inflation to moderate in the December quarter because some of the increase in the September quarter was seen as temporary. They were clearly wrong.Moreover, RBA Governor Bullock said that inflation and jobs data would be important for the February board meeting and that, if the data suggested inflation was not slowing, this would be considered at the meeting. Traders aren't going to focus on the rate hike because that's already priced in. The focus will be on the forward guidance and whether the RBA strikes a hawkish or cautious tone. The market is pricing 55 bps of tigthening by year-end, which means there's another rate hike expected.The central bank will need to "out-hawk" traders' expectations to boost further the Australian Dollar. That's not going to be easy for them as they will likely need to pre-commit to a rate hike earlier than expected or signal more rate hikes than currently priced in (for that the updated forecasts will be eyed). Therefore, the risks for the Australian Dollar are mostly skewed to the downside just because of the current positioning. If the RBA surprises keeping the Cash Rate steady at this meeting, we will likely see the Australian Dollar selling off across the board as positioning resets. From a risk management perspective, it doesn't make sense for the RBA to wait further at this point. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.6Key details:New export orders rise for first time in four years Business optimism at highest level since before 2024 Autumn budget Comment:Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “UK manufacturing made a solid start to 2026, showing encouraging resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions. Rates of output and order book growth accelerated, while new export business rose for the first time in four years, with Europe, China and the US the main recipients. "There was also a positive bounceback in business confidence, which rose to its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn budget, as manufacturers focussed on opportunities lying ahead despite persistent concerns about the geopolitical environment, Government policy and tariff tensions. "There was also encouraging news on the jobs front. Although the strongest rise in new business for almost four years was insufficient to fully quell reductions to staff headcounts, the rate of cutting slowed to its weakest since job losses started 15 months ago. Cost pressures are creeping higher though, as the pass through of the increased Minimum Wage and employer NI contributions continue to work through the supply chain alongside the rising costs for commodities such as metals.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.8Euro area manufacturing activity ticks up in January, moving closer to the growth threshold. Of note, manufacturing output increased in January for the tenth time over the past eleven months. However, the mood was slightly dampened by a fall in new factory orders since December. Overall, job losses also gathered pace but at least business confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022 while pricing power appeared to be limited amongst manufacturers in the region. HCOB notes that:“Some progress can be seen in the manufacturing sector, but it’s happening at a snail’s pace. After dropping in December, production ticked up slightly at the start of the year, essentially continuing the growth path we saw between spring and fall last year. Order intakes haven’t been much help, though — they fell again, even if not quite as sharply as at the end of last year. Right now, it’s hard to say what might put an end to the ongoing rundown of inventories, which makes a strong shortterm upswing rather unlikely. Still, when looking twelve months ahead, companies are feeling a bit more upbeat than last month about expanding their production. “There are some encouraging signs from Greece, France, and Germany. In Greece, growth in the manufacturing sector has picked up notably. In France, expansion has also gained momentum, and in Germany, December’s sharp slump has given way to only a mild decline. Italy, in contrast, paints a less optimistic picture, with the industry stuck in contraction territory. Next door in Austria, conditions have worsened significantly compared with the previous month. Spain, which had been in pole position among the four largest eurozone economies for most of the last two years, has seen its manufacturing industry decline for two straight months. All in all, this highly uneven picture across the eurozone is not exactly laying the groundwork for a sustained upswing. “The noticeable rise in cost inflation stands out. The sharp increase in natural gas prices in January, and to a slightly lesser extent higher oil prices, likely played a role here. The spike in energy costs could prove temporary, as it seems largely tied to the unusually cold winter in Europe and the US. At the same time, a range of industrial metals became more expensive in January compared with the previous month, which, in itself, is not necessarily a bad sign, as it can point to stronger global industrial demand. But for companies relying on metals like copper, aluminium, or nickel, this - together with pricier energy - puts pressure on profit margins. They don’t appear to have the ability to raise their selling prices accordingly. In fact, their prices seem to be largely flat.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior was 47.0Key findings:Input cost inflation ticks up to 37-month highComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “This smells a bit like a recovery could be underway. Output has rebounded rather swiftly from the drop in December, optimism about future output has risen from an already high level, and new orders have ticked up a bit. Hopes for a broader recovery are supported by general anecdotal evidence. Manufacturers seem to see opportunities to pivot toward defencerelated production, where demand is rising amid geopolitical tensions and increased public spending on military goods. The situation remains fragile, though. Companies are still drawing down their inventories at speed, and the backlog of work is shrinking even faster than at the end of last year. “Input prices are climbing again. Much of this seems tied to the sharp jump in natural gas and oil prices, both driven up by cold weather across Europe and the US. Prices for metals like copper, nickel, and aluminium have also run higher in January compared to December. Companies, however, have struggled to pass these cost pressures on to customers. At best, they’ve managed to slow the ongoing three month decline in output prices, nothing more. “Firms are continuing to shed jobs at a brisk pace. This likely reflects a combination of productivity enhancing measures and a response to the weak demand environment of the past several years. Those companies that have streamlined their production processes may find themselves well positioned if demand does pick up over the course of this year, as hinted by the improvement in the future output index.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Monday kicks off with manufacturing PMI releases for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S., while Tuesday, attention will turn to Australia with the RBA’s monetary policy announcement. In the U.S., Tuesday will bring the JOLTS job openings report and New Zealand will publish its employment change q/q, the unemployment rate, and the labour cost index q/q figures. Wednesday brings inflation data from the Eurozone while the U.S. will see the release of the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM services PMI. On Thursday, the spotlight will be on monetary policy announcements from both the BoE in the U.K. and the ECB in the euro area. The U.S. will also publish the weekly unemployment claims. Friday wraps up the week with labour market data from Canada, including employment change and the unemployment rate. In the U.S., average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change, the unemployment rate, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations will be released. In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM manufacturing PMI is 48.5, up from 47.9 previously. This week’s data is expected to show some improvement in the manufacturing sector, as recent strength in durable goods points to a rebound in business investment. That said, the broader outlook remains subdued, with overall factory activity still lacking clear direction and facing persistent headwinds.At this week’s meeting, the RBA is expected to deliver a 25 bps rate hike, lifting the cash rate to 3.85%. The main driver behind the move is inflation, which remains above target and has proven more persistent than initially anticipated. Analysts believe that, following this meeting, the Bank is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, rather than signaling a series of consecutive hikes. The accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy will update the Bank’s economic outlook, incorporating firmer inflation outcomes alongside signs of resilient consumer demand and a stable labour market, Westpac analysts said. Forecast assumptions for interest rates and the exchange rate are also likely to shift, reflecting a market outlook that now implies fewer rate cuts than were expected late last year. In New Zealand, the consensus for employment growth is 0.3% q/q versus 0.0% previously. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3%, while the labour cost index is forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.5% prior. Analysts argue that employment gains are broadly keeping pace with population growth. This level is likely to represent the peak for the current cycle, with any further improvement expected to be gradual. With spare capacity still evident in the labour market, wage growth pressures should remain subdued in the near term, Westpac analysts said. In the U.S., the consensus for the ISM services PMI is 53.6, down from 54.4 previously. The services sector remains under pressure, and a meaningful improvement is not expected in the near term. Overall, the sector appears to be holding steady rather than gaining momentum, as hiring remains subdued while consumer demand continues to hold up. In the U.K., at this week’s meeting the BoE is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% and potentially signal a rate cut for the March meeting. As a reminder, the Bank adopted a more dovish stance in December, delivering a 25 bps rate cut. Since then, economic activity has been firmer than anticipated, with improvements in GDP and retail sales, while PMI trends have also come in stronger than expected. On the inflation front, pressures have continued to moderate, although core inflation remains elevated. That said, softer wage growth points to more subdued inflation dynamics in the near term. At this week’s meeting, the ECB is expected to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%. Recent Eurozone data have been supportive, with fourth-quarter GDP growth printing at 0.3% q/q, pointing to ongoing economic resilience. Annual growth came in at 1.3%, while the unemployment rate edged down to a new record low of 6.2%. However, the provisional GDP release lacks detail on the underlying drivers of growth, which limits its immediate policy relevance. In the absence of clearer evidence on demand conditions and inflation dynamics, Wells Fargo analysts expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged through the end of the year. In Canada, the consensus for the employment change is +7.2K versus +8.2K previously, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 6.8%. Employment is forecast to rise only modestly, following an unusually strong run of job gains in December. While month-to-month outcomes remain volatile, slower population growth is materially reducing the pace of job creation needed to stabilize the labour market. In addition, a pullback in labour force participation is likely to limit available labour supply in January. These demographic trends are expected to persist through the year, implying that even modest job losses could still be consistent with a steady or even declining unemployment rate, RBC analysts said. Forward-looking indicators remain mixed: business surveys point to subdued hiring intentions and easing wage pressures, while online job postings suggest a more constructive demand backdrop. Although trade-sensitive sectors such as manufacturing continue to lag, a stabilizing external environment and resilient domestic demand should support a gradual recovery in hiring, with the unemployment rate projected to drift lower toward 6.3% by year-end. In the U.S., the consensus for average hourly earnings is a 0.3% m/m increase vs. 0.3% prior. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 67K, up from 50K previously, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.4%. Analysts at Wells Fargo expect a slightly stronger 80K increase in employment, though they note that the rebound is partly driven by fewer layoffs in seasonally sensitive sectors following lighter holiday hiring last year. The unemployment rate is still expected to hold at 4.4%, but downside risks remain, as labor-demand indicators, including the Conference Board’s labor differential and the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers, are hovering near cycle lows. Wage growth is expected to continue moderating, a rise of average hourly earnings by only 0.3% pushing down the year-over-year pace to around 3.6%. Looking ahead, the 2025 benchmark revisions are likely to show that last year’s hiring was overstated, with average monthly payroll growth revised down from about 49K to roughly 20K–30K. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.7French manufacturing activity picked up to start the year with the headline reading being a 43-month high. After a seven-month spell of decline, manufacturing output rose across France in January. The growth was attributed by firms to improving market conditions and restocking. The good news also is that employment conditions rose once more, marking back-to-back months of jobs growth. HCOB notes that:“France’s manufacturing industry is starting the year on a firmer footing. The headline index continued to rise and now points to growth for the second consecutive month – the first time this has happened in almost four years. Whether this truly marks the end of the sector’s prolonged period of weakness remains to be seen. In January, stronger production dynamics were the main driver supporting the headline index. Panellists attributed this partly to improving market conditions and partly to inventory building. However, without a significant improvement in new orders, it would be premature to declare a sustained recovery. Although the trade environment remains unsettled by existing tariffs, the reverberations from new U.S. announcements are far less disruptive than they were a year ago. At the same time, Europe’s efforts to strengthen its strategic autonomy in defence policy are gaining traction. Together, these two key developments could provide a boost to the manufacturing sector in 2026. “Additional signs of stabilisation are emerging in purchasing and input stocks. French manufacturers have increased both their purchasing volumes and their stocks of inputs simultaneously – again for the first time in almost four years. Against this backdrop, business expectations have stabilised over the past three months and now stand above their long‑term average. Meanwhile, supplier delivery times extended, reflecting a mix of factors such as adverse weather, material shortages, and delays on international shipments. “On the price front, input prices are rising only moderately, driven primarily by higher costs for metals and metal products. Pricing power, however, appears limited as manufacturers lowered their selling prices again, as has been the case in recent months, likely in an effort to maintain sales volumes amid intense competition. Prices for intermediate goods, in particular, have seen a marked decline.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 47.9Key findings:Softer falls in output and total new orders Outlook brightens as employment rises for first time in four months Charge inflation returns as cost burdens rise at fastest rate in over three yearsComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Italian manufacturing began 2026 still in contraction, yet January’s survey data offered tentative signs that the sector may be edging toward firmer ground. The headline index rose slightly to 48.1 from 47.9, marking a second month below the 50 threshold but signalling a slower pace of decline. The softer falls in both output and new orders suggest that the intense weakness seen late last year may be easing. Even so, demand remains fragile at home and abroad, with firms reporting cancellations and difficult market conditions. Export orders, excluding brief upticks in May and November 2025, continued their nearly three-year downtrend, though the latest fall was modest. “One of the most striking developments in January was the further intensification of cost pressures. Input prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years, driven by broad-based increases across key raw materials including metals and wood. This pick-up in cost inflation fed through to selling prices, which climbed for the second time in three months. For now, charge inflation remains mild compared with input costs, but the shift back into price-raising territory points to the return of margin pressures. “In line with weaker order flows, firms scaled back their purchasing activity at a faster pace, contributing to slimmer input inventories. At the same time, there were signs of stabilisation in supply chains, with delivery times shortening for the first time since mid-2025. Employment provided a rare bright spot, rising for the first time in four months as firms hired mainly permanent staff, reflecting firmer expectations for the year ahead. This improved mood was also evident in the broader outlook, with business expectations strengthening markedly and reaching one of the highest levels in nearly four-and-a-half years, supported by expectations of sectoral recovery, borrowing cost cuts and new product initiatives.” This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we will get the final PMIs for the UK and the major Eurozone economies. The market reacts the most to new information, so the Flash data is more important than the final PMIs. Therefore, unless we get big deviations, the market reaction will likely be muted. The data is also not going to change anything for the respective central banks.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the main highlight will be the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The index is expected to tick higher to 48.5 vs 47.9 prior. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose a two-month high, with the agency noting that ouptut growth was the highest since last August, and new orders increased after falling in December. Employment growth meanwhile slipped to the lowest since last July and output prices increased.This month could be pivotal for Fed's rate cuts expectations as we will get many top tier data points with the NFP and CPI being the main highlights. I mentioned how the latest selloff in the US Dollar wasn't backed by the fundamentals but more by "technical" things. The market is now pricing 55 bps of easing by year-end which could be wrong if we start to get stronger data. In such a scenario, traders will trim their rate cut bets and the greenback will have the tailwind to erase last month's losses. If we get soft data, on the other hand, we can expect the dollar to remain on the backfoot although it's unlikely that we'll see the same momentum.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS11:45 GMT/06:45 ET - BoE's Breeden (dovish - voter)17:30 GMT/12:30 ET - Fed's Bostic (hawkish - non voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.4%UK house prices inched a little higher to start the year after a bit of a drop at the tail end of 2025. The house price index (seasonally adjusted) moved up in January but the average house price (non-seasonally adjusted) was seen down slightly from £271,068 to £270,873. Again, that is to do with seasonal adjustment issues.The UK housing market can be summed up by one word last year, that being resilience. And perhaps 2026 will be the year of recovery, if anything else. Nationwide notes that:“The start of 2026 saw a slight pick-up in annual house price growth, which rose to 1.0% in January, after slowing to 0.6% in December. Prices increased by 0.3% month on month in January, after taking account of seasonal effects. “Housing market activity also dipped at the end of 2025, most likely reflecting uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the Budget. Nevertheless, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase remained close to the levels prevailing before the pandemic. “Housing market activity is likely to recover in the coming quarters, especially if the improving affordability trend seen last year (and explored further below) is maintained." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.5%German retail sales closes out the year with a marginal increase, with the December estimate also being 1.5% higher than the same month a year ago. Overall in 2025, retail sales were seen up 2.7% compared to 2024 in real terms. In nominal terms, that figure reflects a 3.8% growth in retail sales instead for the year of 2025.Looking at the breakdown for the year, food store sales were seen up 1.1% on the year while non-food store sales were up 3.7%. On the latter, the only drag was in textiles and clothing store sales (-0.8%) while other sub-divisions posted positive growth in terms of retail sales volumes for last year. The full breakdown can be seen below:All in all, it's a positive showing for Germany's retail sector despite more stubborn price pressures weighing in general. It's mostly seen in the services sector but spillover effects to correlate, so this is still a good development to note.That being said, Europe's largest economy is still a bit of a thorn in the side of the ECB in trying to manage policy setting. And that will continue to be the case in the early stages of 2026 as well. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1800 level. It isn't one that ties to any technical significance but the expiries could provide a bit of a floor for price action on any downside extensions later in the day.The currency pair is very much caught in a tussle now around its 200-hour moving average of 1.1853. A firm break below that will see the near-term bias shift to being more bearish instead. And amid the dollar's firmness as precious metals are still facing a volatile selling bout, we could see further dollar strength creep in to start the week.As such, that could keep some downside pressure on the pair in bringing about the expiries at the figure level. That's just about the only potential impact with other expiries being too far away to factor into the equation today.But as highlighted above, the main drivers of trading sentiment at the moment are broader market influences. That especially the risk selling and precious metals correction, driving up trader and investor nerves for now.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.